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Microsoft CEO Claims iPhone Will Be Bust
Theaetetus writes "In an interview with USA Today, Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer claimed there is no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. The article also deals with Microsoft's friction with the Justice Department, friction with Google, and the profitability of MSN. 'No chance. It's a $500 subsidized item. They may make a lot of money. But if you actually take a look at the 1.3 billion phones that get sold, I'd prefer to have our software in 60% or 70% or 80% of them, than I would to have 2% or 3%, which is what Apple might get. In the case of music, Apple got out early. They were the first to really recognize that you couldn't just think about the device and all the pieces separately. Bravo. Credit that to Steve (Jobs) and Apple. They did a nice job. But it's not like we're at the end of the line of innovation that's going to come in the way people listen to music, watch videos, etc. I'll bet our ads will be less edgy. But my 85-year-old uncle probably will never own an iPod, and I hope we'll get him to own a Zune.'"
Not to mention that special "something" that Apple has and Microsoft clearly does not have. I don't claim to know what it is--I don't own a Mac--I'm bicurious about OSX and I don't know why
Translation: The question left out of this interview was whether Ballmer has to lie to himself that he's working for the greatest company on earth every morning when he wakes up or if that lie persists full strength throughout the week.
If you underestimate your enemies--no matter how big or small--you're going to get burned.
My work here is dung.
Even Balmer's family isn't buying Zunes? I knew they weren't exactly a hit, but that's just sad.
You just absolutely guaranteed that the iPhone will be a huge success.
Nice going.
yeah, go for the 85 year old demographic, lots of money in music downloads to be had there.
I wonder how receptive Balmer's uncle is going to be to his "Squirting" analogy.
"No one likes working in a hamster wheel, and your shop smells of cedar shavings from here." - TaleSpinner
What? You couldn't just give him one?
"There are four boxes to be used in defense of liberty: soap, ballot, jury, and ammo. Please use in that order." -Ed H
Excuse me, Mr. Balmer? Subsidized by who or what?
Maybe Balmer knows something I don't (always possible), but methinks that he needs to go back to CEO school* for lessons on how to pay attention to your competition. In specific, the reason why the iPhone is going to cost $500 is because it's not being subsidized by cell phone contracts. Jobs is trying to change the rules in that respect. Like Nintendo, Apple wants to make a profit off of every hardware unit sold. Any money that comes in through the surplus channels of additional content or features will simply be creme.
I can see how that went: "Here uncle, take this Zune player. It's FREE! That way I can tell everyone that my 85 year old uncle has a Zune, but doesn't want an iPod."
Uncle: "Have you lost your marbles, sonny-boy!?! What in tarnashun' does your old uncle here need with this Dune player?"
Balmer: "Zune..."
Uncle: "Don't interrupt me when I'm talking boy! You think you're so sh'mart with yer fancy electronics company!"
Balmer: "Technically soft-"
Uncle: "I said DON'T INTERRUPT ME!"
Blamer: "Um. Sorry."
Uncle: "That's better. Now get rid of this piece of junk. Did I ever tell you about the time I was flying over Iwo Jima and ended up in a blazing dogfight? I think it was 1942..."
Balmer: *sigh*
Two months later...
Blamer: "My 85-year-old uncle probably will never own an iPod, and I hope we'll get him to own a Zune."
Reporter: "Oooooo..."
* I hear that he didn't finish his Dark Lord training with Jeff Skilling...
Javascript + Nintendo DSi = DSiCade
"No squirting. Less weight than a Zune. Lame."
In a shocking news story Apple CEO Steve Jobs told the media that the Zune will be a totaly bust.r ied-about-the-zune-in-a-word-no/
http://www.engadget.com/2006/10/16/steve-jobs-wor
If you are #1 in your field with a monopoly, you should not be talking about (read advertising) your small competitors.
This is a product that hasn't launched yet, hasn't been seen in the wild, and only demo'd under controlled circumstances. Yet we've had his illustrious personage repeatedly tell us that this phone is going to be a bust.
If it's such a dead-certain bust, why is he constantly mentioning it in the media ? Surely shome mishtake ? The fact is that he's terrified Apple are going to repeat their success with the iPod, and it shows.
Simon.
Physicists get Hadrons!
But my 85-year-old uncle probably will never own an iPod, and I hope we'll get him to own a Zune.
Heh, in the same way Jack Bauer "hopes" that his daughter would never marry a Bin Laden.
Tsunami -- You can't bring a good wave down!
A CEO claims his competitor's big product will fail? Incredible!
Bizarro Steve Ballmer may actually speculate based on logic, and say the iPhone will break sales records, and admits the Zune is a piece of shit that no one will even accept as a free gift. However, back here in the real world, CEOs lie to try and steal the thunder from their competitors' announcements, and to keep their own stock price from sliding.
I've noticed Balmer appearing/interview on a number of media outlets recently. USA Today is just the most recent. Two page spread in the middle of Money section. There is normally barly enough content to cover a bathroom trip. First question: is Microsoft buying articles (under the table, big advertiser offers an interview with CEO, business journalist bites)? Second question: Why do they feel the need for publicity now?
Want to bet which brand is more recognizable to consumers after one year - iPhone or Windows Mobile 5/6/7? The figures will be even more skewed on the desirability factor. Let's see - do I want something cool, or do I want something that reminds me of the operating system that I _have to use_ at work/home? I mean, the name is just stupid marketing - Windows (a brand that's as old as dirt, with more than a few dings), 5/6/7 (reinforces the whole "oldness").
Balmer shouldn't be afraid of the first iPhone. He should be afraid of the first "iPhone NanoMini". He'll be singing a new tune after that.
the ZunePhone is going to be popular...
Granted, I'm in the same boat, and the first thing I'd do with one would be to either regift it, or see if someone's hacked it to be useful, then get it painted a better color.
He knows the iPhone is going to be big and that it will put pressure on Microsoft's hand-held OS to match it feature for feature; but since MS doesn't not design the hardware, they'll be in tough to compete.
The hand-held market is the dominant computing platform and Jobs is going after it with a vigor not seen since the first Macintosh came out. Apple has yet to ship a single unit, but already iPhone (and mini OS X) is a top-ranked contender for that market.
Ballmer is either scared or stupid, plain and simple.
boxlight
Of course, we all remember Mr. Ballmer at his best:
9 713522403&q=steve+ballmer
:P
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=127498372
Looks like more of his monkey business.
I hope he's not saying that windows has 50%, 60% or 70% of the mobile handset market share, because microsoft is not even close.
Symbian - 72.5%
Linux - 16.9%
PalmSource - 2.0%
Microsoft - 4.6%
RIM - 3.8%
Others - 0.2%
So if he's saying Apple will get 5% of the market share, well they will then have a larger share of the market than MS.
Silly Ballmer-speak
The real Sig captains the Northwestern. This one captains
Yeah, let's sell our stuff to 85 year olds, who are statistically already dead, as opposed to the youngin's who have, um, 40-60 buying years ahead of them. Now that's some good CEO-ing there.
Ballmer, check out how well the "sell to the dead" strategy worked for Cadillac, and who they've been targeting for the last 10 years.
But my 85-year-old uncle probably will never own an iPod, and I hope we'll get him to own a Zune.
/. crowd being in the market for a portable media player, and strongly ruling out owning an iPod. I doubt, however, that his 85-year old Uncle is that kind of consumer. For him, there's essentially no difference between the two. If he isn't in the market for one, he probably isn't in the market for any.
If his uncle isn't in the market for an iPod, what makes him think that he'll be in the market for a Zune, or any other portable media player? Is his uncle such a discerning consumer that he would notice the differences among the devices? Would he merely own and use a Zune to make his nephew happy? (Note that I don't say "buy" a Zune.)
I could understand members of the
"But my 85-year-old uncle probably will never own an iPod, and I hope we'll get him to own a Zune."
Bwahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha!
Way to target the right demographic with your music player. I think that deserves to be on the list of best quotes EVAR!
Didn't he also say that Google was a house made of cards?
e _ballmer.html).
:(
And yet, he knows what Apple's business is going to do, but he doesn't know what a monopoly is (http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/authors/s/stev
I think Steve just needs a hug.
Let's stop dilly-dallying and just change "-1: Overrated" to "-1: Disagree" or "-1: Doesn't Subscribe to Groupthink".
No wireless. Less space than a nomad. Lame.
Funtage Factor: Purple
...oh, wait.
I wonder, will they come preloaded with Lawrence Welk?
Step into a huge movement. Don't Tread In Me.
They may make a lot of money. But if you actually take a look at the 1.3 billion phones that get sold, I'd prefer to have our software in 60% or 70% or 80% of them, than I would to have 2% or 3%, which is what Apple might get. In the case of music, Apple got out early.
Or the 75% market share they have with iPods. Totally lame. Our Zune has only 10% market share and it's totally kicking their ass. Oh, did we drop below 10% again? Darn.
But read my lips, the iPhone will never be a commercial success. It costs $500! What other product could cost $500 when first unveiled and become a huge commercial success? Oh, the iPod, you say? Well, besides them!
In any case, given the MS philosophy of socializing the computer market through direct private investment, it is no wonder that radical idea of selling a competative product at a profit does not seem viable. How can Apple possibly imagine that it can survive if it sells a mere hundred thousand phones at a $100 profit, when in fact it should try to ship one million units at little or no profit, or even a $126 loss. Such a loss will be made up in volume.
"She's a scientist and a lesbian. She's not going to let it slide." Orphan Black
Well, in all fairness, I don't think the number of 85 year olds using pirated software is all that high.
Then again, I guess the number of 85 year olds who know what software actually is, isn't very high either.
Wanna fight ? Bend over, stick your head up your ass, and fight for air.
Can someone explain why we care what CEO of Company B says about the products of Company A?
If they are partners they say "Greatest thing since sliced bread.".
If they are competitors they say "It'll be a bust, terrible.....".
REDMOND, Washington, May 1 -- Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer today announced a new offensive weapon in his company's arsenal: The Chair Gun (TM). This device, when fully loaded, is capable of launching up to 6 chairs per minute at Microsoft enemies. Ballmer planned a press conference to demonstrate the unique gun, which he said came to him in a fit of apoplexy. "I was at work one day, thinking about those little twerps over at Apple / Google and my blood pressure started to spike. The anger and rage started to build up inside my brain. I needed to throw something, anything, and the first thing available was a chair in my office. After throwing it clear across the room, I felt much better. Then I realized there is a market for such a mechanism to vent frustration. I worked for many months with Microsoft engineers, and we've come up with a great solution to this business problem."
Powered by two thousand industrial strength rubber bands, The Chair Gun is a formidable and impressive machine.
I can throw as many stones as I wish; my house is made of transparent aluminum.
Wow, I can believe how much of his own koolaid Steve has drank. Could anyone get it any less? Does he actually do any good for Microsoft or is he just a figure-head these days?
-> Sometimes, you just gotta break free from the shackles of proprietary code.
In both cases, a company is completely happy building a niche product, that does its job exceptionally well, that they can be truly proud of, and that they can turn a profit on every single one.
Apple themselves said they were only going after 1% of the market. 1% of 1.3 billion is still 13 million. If they can turn $50 profit on each and every one of those, they walk away with an extra $650m on their bottom line next year. Not a bad kick in the teeth for the indignity of having to be exactly the market you went for.
Microsoft has a totally different model. They want global dominance in cell phones because it'll help prop up their model of making the entire world have to use your stuff if they want compatibility and then you can extort money on things like office suites. They'll happily give away their mobile O.S. if it means propping up that model.
Neither one is particularly wrong per se. They're just two totally different models that, evidently, are successful for both companies. Microsoft turns a profit, Apple turns a profit, yay for both of them.
But knocking one model for failing to succeed based on the metrics of your model... while totally succeeding on their own model's metrics and turning a profit... that's a little cheap.
What is interesting is that Apple's own figures were they were aiming for 1% market saturation but Balmer's already referencing 2-3% before it comes out. I'm curious as to whether that's a case of his not getting numbers straight, of Microsoft expecting more success for Apple than Apple's actually banking on, or whether they're just trying to raise the bar now so they can say Apple failed to meet numbers Apple never went for later.
Let's start the apple love circle jerk here on Slashdot...
Of course apple is going to destroy MS... they've done it sooooo many times...
Can we start a pool how many times we see MS as M$ in this thread?
I swear I've heard Microsoft talk about the iPhone more than they ever did about any of their own products.
1989: The GUI will never gain significant market share (And the end user will only ever need 640K of RAM!)
1994: The Internet is a passing fad and will never gain any significant market share!
1995: MS BOB Will be a huge market success!
1997: The DOJ will never convict us of being a monopoly!
1998: The end user doesn't care about security!
1999: What's this Linux thing you're talking about?
2001: What's this Apple thing you're talking about?
2002: iPod: Less storage than a Nomad and no wireless. Lame.
2006: iPod: Less storage than a Zune and no wireless. Lame.
2007: The iPhone will never gain significant market share!
It would seem that if you want to accurately predict popular technology trends all you have to do is listen to what Microsoft is saying and then predict exactly the opposite!
I'm trying to teach myself to set people on fire with my mind... Is it hot in here?
Even if apple grabs 2-3% of the market share, they will be drawing the revenue from both the hardware and software side of the sale. After all, Jobs' state GOAL was only 1% of the market in 2008. So Ballmer is really saying that he thinks Apple will do better than they will publicly admit to thinking.
E F16A95-278E-40ED-9E00-FBEBD75207FB.html
Microsoft still doesn't get that Apple operates in a fundamentally different space than they do. Microsoft sells software; Apple sells hardware AND software.
Its like comparing Mac and PC sales. By controlling the hardware channel, Apple makes a hell of a lot more money per unit sale than Microsoft. Yet because they control both sides of the equation it is very difficult to compare them to pure software companies like Microsoft or to pure hardware companies like Dell. Apple's balance sheet shows net income in the ballpark of HP and Dell, based on revenues a half to a third the size. http://www.roughlydrafted.com/RD/RDM.Tech.Q1.07/9
So, yes, Microsoft would rather have software on 60% or 70% or 80% of the phones out there, just like they would like to have software on 60% or 70% or 80% or 90% of the desktops out there. Apple has a fundamentally different business model.
Sanity is a sandbox. I prefer the swings.
Balmer knows about as much about the iPhone as I do.. that's pratically nothing.
Windows Mobile STINKS.. its awfal software. I personaly think Symbian is the best mobile software out there right now.
He made a comment afew weeks ago that it won't support office documents however.. both Symbian and Garnet Palm's actually *do* support it. If they do.. I can't see why Apple's iPhone couldn't also.
I think they are scared.
Bringing liberty to the masses. - http://freetalklive.com/
Regardless of the need for them in the workplace, people will buy them for the same reason a lot are buying High-end ipod's nowadays. It's not that other phones or players haven't got all the bells and whistles... people will buy it because of who made it.
It will be a status symbol, regardless of how well it will do in the business area. People don't buy $1000 pairs of shoes because they can do more in them.. buy them because they think it makes them look better.
"Please, shut up. Just when I think you can't say anything more stupid, you speak again." -Archie Bunker.
I think Slashdot should start a fund to purchase a iPod for Ballmer's Uncle.
I have come to a conclusion that one useless man is a shame, two is a law firm, and three or more is a congress -J Adams
...who brought you Windows Me and "Bob."
Any technology distinguishable from magic is insufficiently advanced.
I happen to agree with one point he makes, Apple is late to the party. With the iPod they arrived "fashionably late", well before the party was going, but not until they knew it was going to be a good party. With the iPhone what we have is a big party and another glam-chick pining for attention. She'll attract eyes when she comes through the door but when people realize how shallow of an offering she is they will wait for her younger sister to arrive.
Talk is cheap, many people love to chime in they will buy one, but I bet they won't. It is a feel good response, makes them feel like part of the "in crowd" while never being obligated to do anything.
Apple's way late to the big show and their offering is seriously lacking. Wait for the second or THIRD revision of this iphone before jumping
* Winners compare their achievements to their goals, losers compare theirs to that of others.
Dude, shut up.
Bill
Ballmer's job seems to be to cast aspersions on any IT company that might be encroaching on Microsoft's world in the hope that people will pay attention, whereas it just looks like fear and loathing. Cool dance moves though.
Blamer: "My 85-year-old uncle...
Just a typo, or something more? Here's a fun game: What other anagrams can you come up for "Ballmer"?
Oh, yeah, it's not easy to pad these out to 120 characters.
I cant hear you over the sound of the zune sucking.
> But my 85-year-old uncle probably will never own an iPod,
> and I hope we'll get him to own a Zune.
Not if his uncle has heard about this whole "squirting" thing Steve's got happening.
Log in or piss off.
It seems I recall reading about medical devices that were looking to store data on the iPod. Things like heart and other monitors that people wear for extended periods of time, with details of their condition recorded. The iPod becomes a bit of a 'flight data recorder'. They can store and listen to music, and at the same time they are able to have their medical data recorded for the doctor to review.
. 62,400 repetitions make one truth -- Brave New World, Aldous Huxley
It is true that we could end up with a situation where WinCE has 30% of the market, Symbian has 50%, and Apple has only 4%, but Apple makes more money then the others combined. But isn't this what we call success?
ilovegeorgebush
Zero Used, Never Experienced
There are no loopholes. It's either legal or it's not.
I thought Apple only expected about 1%. They don't feel this grade-schoolish desire to completely dominate everything, they just want to make a profit and they will do so with only 1% of the market. Apple will only "fail" if they use Microsoft's definition of success (complete monopoly). Apple's definition of success is to walk into a market and immediately make a profit, and they will do that.
What Apple won't get is the mass market of crappy phones that carriers give away for free. I wish I only had rich customers with money to burn!
Meanwhile, Balmer would *like* to have Windows on "60% or 70% or 80%" of the market, but he doesn't even have that (or a strategy to get there). Plus, whatever Apple does get will come DIRECTLY from people who would otherwise have bought a phone with Palm or Windows.
As for the "end of the line of innovation," does Balmer really think Apple is going to plop out the iPhone and be done with it? And if he's so down on subsidies, I'd like to hear his opinion on Xbox subsidies.
The bottom line is that if Ballmer really thought Apple was making a mistake, he would shut up and let them make it. The reality is that he just looks scared.
-- Don't Tase me, bro!
Why does Microsoft have to pontificate about every other company's offerings to prop themselves up? Okay, this is a rhetorical question.
Or does anyone else get the impression of "pompous windbag" when reading anything that Ballmer has to say about anything?
Microsoft still doesn't have a strangle hold on cellphone software and Apple is entering the market -- that scares Balmer
I would expect Cingular to sell these cheeper.. in fact Cingular put out a test ad that had it for $350 I think.
Also.. the $425 Sony Ericsson in my pocket is a great Symbian smart phone.. but its not as capable as the iPhone.
Bringing liberty to the masses. - http://freetalklive.com/
Apple said they were only aiming for 1% of the market in the near future. How is Ballmer saying that Apple will meet and possibly exceed their sales goals insightful?
Desperation is a stinky cologne, Steve.
"What we elect to call imagination is mere combination of things not heretofore combined." - Frank Norris
he went on to state that he expects the company's rebuttal product, the Communication Handset Allowing Internet Relay, to go through the roof.
The IRS is the one organization that you don't want to fuck with. Remember, these are the guys who took down Al Capone.
well, not as long as I continue to hold this loaded chair to his head." Steve Ballmer
but he'll never own a zune, I'll bet.
I didn't know monkeys could talk.
Anonymous Coward claims Vista will be bust.
It'll be exactly like the Microsoft Zune then.
Microsoft bashes an Apple product! Amazing! Stop the presses! This is unbelievable! Who would have guessed???
a little more action.
Instead of slamming the competition, these companies need to focus on their own products. Way to sound petty Steve Ballmer.
So now we know the problem with Microsoft's marketing strategy: they are going after the 60+ crowd.
Now it all makes sense...
...im rather wary of flying chairs, so i will leave the story of the movie to your imagination.
Read radical news here
MSN has the most visitors? Is that because it is the default search for IE when it can't find something? And yet, it has yet to show profit. Google visitors spend the least amount of time yet Google is making the most money. Perhaps the reason is that they are the most efficient. I know when I search using Google, it takes me to the results I want right away and I don't spend a lot of time hunting. If I was an MS investor, I would like to know what MS is doing about the unprofitable divsions like MSN and Xbox which have not shown profits in half a decade.
The interviewer was talking about Apple's music player and upcoming smart phone, not OS. Different products and markets. In those categories, MS is substantially behind Apple in music players (20% only if you include all MS partners) and even further behind Symbian (4% of the phone market). Face the facts, Ballmer, in ventures other than OS and Office suites, MS is woefully behind others.
Funny how he forgets to mention that MS only has a very small market share in cell phone OS. At 5%, Apple would still beat MS in market share. At 2% or 3% it would be half of MS even though MS has been in the market years longer.
This is rather revisionist history. Apple was not the first MP3 player out there, and they were not the first music store. But they were able to recognize what people really wanted.
So the first attempt to market the Zune as edgy and cool failed. I've seen the ads and the biggest mistake was the attempt to copy the style of Apple (which MS didn't do very well) without any real substance. With the iPod ads, you understand (1) what the product does, and (2) who is making the product. With the Zune ads, it was a totally mystery as to what was being advertised and who was adverstising.
Well, there's spam egg sausage and spam, that's not got much spam in it.
I think those percentages are smartphone percentages, which is in turn a smaller piece of that 1.2 billion cell-phone figure.
Apple is setting out by ignoring that smaller pie, and trying to make a larger pie where it can dominate which is Consumer Smartphones - smartphones that are actually smart instead of requiring the users to be.
"There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
I think it's funny how he claims that MS is the giant in this arena, and Apple will just be small potatoes, for three reasons:
A) Someone else posted the actual market share of Windows Mobile phones, compared to Symbian, Linux, etc., and MS only had about 4%. So I don't know where he's getting his 3% for Apple and 50/60/70% for MS numbers, but that's not consistent with reality. For crying out loud, Linux, his sworn cancerous enemy, has like 4x the market share MS has (*according to those numbers).
B) He talks as if Apple is stupid for entering this market because they won't be able to grab a huge market share, but look at what MS just released a few months ago, that really didn't have a hope of gaining a large share of the market: the Zune. Going up against Apple no less.
C) Mac OSX has a similiar share of the market for PCs, and it's doing just fine, and it's very recognizable. Of course, in movies, they seem to have 95% of the market share, which serves to make them even more recognizable.
Sure, at $500/$600 sans subsidies, it's more of a premium phone (for now), and premium items aren't intended to get the largest market share, they're intended to have the cream of the crop image. But as someone else pointed out, the iPod was priced similarly when it launched, and look where it is now. Really, market share isn't everything. I think Apple has proven that by hanging in there, and in recent years flourishing in spite of not being the market leader for PCs.
Motorola's CEO said basically the same thing: it's a niche product, and it doesn't have the backing of the major carriers.
That's really not the point. Jobs could care less how many of them sell - he's more concerned with testing out the market for unencumbered phones, and hoping that he can create a new market for phones.
The iPhone is dangerous and disruptive in this respect. If consumers can grow a pair and tell the cellphone companies they'd rather have an unencumbered, standards-based service than a proprietary, locked in, shaft-the-consumer service, then we will see real positive change in the cellphone industry.
Jobs can do this. Ballmer can't. And that is what scares him and everyone else at Microsoft.
Maybe it will become another Newton. But it doesn't matter, because Apple can afford the risk, and they stand a fortune to gain by being the first in the unencumbered phone services market.
The society for a thought-free internet welcomes you.
There is no stronger motivation to succeed than being told by Microsoft that your product will fail. I thus don't see the wisdom of MS saying such, unless it is pure self agrandizement. MS should instead be bizy making a spailcheck for their browzer.
Table-ized A.I.
640K is enough memory for anyone.
The mobile phone industry is in no way a "party". It's more of a "riot", complete with random rock throwing that hits you upside the head after you buy the newest phone that's supposed to be foolproof.
Apple aims to actualy make the whole thing a party, as in pleasant to be a part of.
"There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
I think everyone in our company has a Windows Mobile Smartphone simply because they sync to our e-mail servers, office apps, etc. I would guess that Apple isn't going for this market or if it is then it just syncs with iLife (stop sniggering). Hmmm ... useful.
Just as their computers aren't seen as "Enterprise" neither will their phones be.
I have excellent Karma and I am not afraid to Troll it.
Nokia sells about half the GSM phones in the world, last time I looked. It is the bread and butter of a whole European country - Finland. I cannot see Apple making significant headway with their first product in that market - regardless of the price.
Andy Rabagliati
Make your choice:
a) Ballmer is filthy rich but also very stingy so that his own family can't AFFORD a Zune or iPod
b) Ballmer doesn't have a very good relationship with his family so he doesn't get invited to the parties where he could GIVE the Zune (or iPod)
c) His family knows from 'inside' around-the-campfire stories that the Zune actually sucks and that very incompetent people have been working on it.
d) His family just think the Zune sucks
e) Ballmer's mother had a three-some with Linus Torvalds and Steve Jobs, got pregnant and then abandoned him. Now all Apple and open source products make him suck his thumb and make him react violently.
f) His family knows Ballmer's mental state and just reacts to everything he says with, "sure, of course we will look at the Zune, now just eat your peas and we'll all be happy. Yell: *Would somebody please get him a bib and clean off his drool*. Behind his back: *haha, ever heard of a device that squirted, haha, ahum, well you can't laugh at it, he's still a good boy, doesn't do any drugs or so*"
g) All of the above.
Custom electronics and digital signage for your business: www.evcircuits.com
What I find interesting is that Ballmer gives the iPhone 2%-3% market share.
This is 2x-3x more than what Jobs is publicly wanting. Jobs goal has been to capture 1% of the 1 Billion phone market - 10 million phones.
So Ballmer says that Apple will sell 20-30 million phones.
Quite the backhanded compliment.
. . . No one takes Ballmer seriously, anyway.
Seriously, this guy is such a tool. "Oh, wahh, nobody will ever like the iPhone!"
And how, exactly, is the Zune doing? I don't think he has any room to talk about how people watch videos and listen to their mp3s. And if you have to "get" your uncle to own a Zune, and you're the CEO of Microsoft...wow.
It is pitch black. You are likely to be eaten by a grue.
Just need Dvorak to pile on and they have a sure-winner.
He'd better not get an iPod, or Balmer will throw a chair at him.
did anyone expect him to announce he expected it to be a huge success? come on here. this isn't really news, just stating the obvious..
are you expecting?
dell announces competitors pc's to be better & cheaper than dell's offerings
hummer announces bigger less fuel efficient monsters better for consumers and environment
abcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxyz
Right up front, it needs to be said that Steve Ballmer is a smart guy, and for him as CEO to come out and be anything less than wildly enthusiastic about his own company's products would be malfeasant.
What's curious to me about Ballmer's statement, though, is his apparent belief that Microsoft can indeed push their software into 60% or more of the entire mobile phone market. Does he actually think that Windows Mobile, in any of its current forms or imagined future forms, will ever make it into 60% of all mobile phones? That's ludicrous. Most of the 1.3b annual phones sold are of the vanilla dial-numbers-and-talk variety. 60% of people don't want to struggle with the Windows interface just to dial their phone.
More to the point, there's an equivocation inherent in Ballmer's thinking that will keep Windows Mobile in marketshare obscurity forever until he, and all of Microsoft with him, unlearns it. Windows Mobile and what we've seen of the iPhone are both "smartphones" only insofar as they both possess "phone, plus other stuff" featuresets. But go watch Jobs' keynote demonstration of the iPhone and try to draw meaningful comparisons between it and Windows Mobile. WM has a defined and seemingly content userbase, especially in business, but that's a totally different "smartphone" from the lifestyle device that the iPhone was demonstrated to be.
Ballmer, in saying that he'd like 60% of phones to run Microsoft's software, is saying he'd like 60% of phones to behave like enterprise corporate devices. Steve Jobs, in saying that he'd like 1% of phones to be iPhones, is saying he'd like 1% of phones to be something more useful to people than just a lump of telecom in their pocket.
The difference between those two views says a lot about who, in a two-decade-or-so predictive view, is statistically more likely to be "the mobile phone company."
Did he ACTUALLY say he hopes his 85 yearold uncle owns a Zune instead of an iPod...
Riiight... thats just the thing to say to get 15-30 year olds - their REAL market - to buy a Zune.
This is Ballmer; The story ends with homicide involving a chair.
MS clamoring that it's going to fail? That just makes me want to buy two and Apple stock.
No doubt you will probably be able to give your 85 year old uncle a Zune. Whether it gets used is another question (loss of hearing is a major problem with the elderly). But when he dies and leaves it to your teenage nephew it will get thrown in the trash because they will already have both an iPod and an iPhone...
The young markets are going for "cool" and anything your uncle would actually use is bound to be "uncool".
I now run Linux (and on a cold day will use wine, and on a few antarctic temperature days might run a VM with Windows in a sandbox that can't corrupt my files, monitor my keystrokes, yada, yada, yada) and it will be a cold day in hell before I ever willingly use a product which contains software from Microsoft. The fact that Microsoft is largely directly responsible for the viruses, SPAM, security break-ins, etc. around the world -- because you failed to provide secure operating systems for far too long -- is the reason that I will go out of my way to discourage the use of Microsoft products...
I hope others will as well.
Here.
* - May not be the real Steve Jobs. Contents may have settled in transit. Void if removed. Etc.
you had me at #!
Just like a broken clock, Ballmer is occasionally right. This is one of those times. The smart phone market is incredibly competitive. And Apple will be competing with the likes of Nokia, Motorola, Samsung, Sanyo, LG, and other giants. If they manage to distinguish their product, that won't last long. If fierce competition wasn't enough, they have to partner with wireless Telco's (that are used to getting their own way).
Then the product itself is priced too high and is already showing signs of development problems. They pulled developers from Leopard and have taken a (small) schedule slip from the announced date. There are rumors of problems involving the duration 'talk time' per charge. No, I don't think Apple will be a winner in this market.
[Insert pithy quote here]
The 640k quote is a total myth.
Even though they were convicted of being a monopoly, they pretty much dodged that bullet.
Security wasn't as huge of a deal in 1998 for end users on dial-up as it is today, and insofar, Linux has still failed to take off completely. (On the other hand OS X has been very successful)
(And the iPod/Nomad comments were made by our very own CmdrTaco)
Right now, I personally put the odds of the iPhone being a success at 40/60. Unless they can get the price down, and open it up to other carriers, it's just not going to fly. GSM coverage in many parts of the US tends to be very poor in comparison to CDMA.
-- If you try to fail and succeed, which have you done? - Uli's moose
Politburo members are on record as denying that there are any agricultural quota problems. The General Secretary has just given a major speech in which he outlines ambitious new agricultural production goals.
Translation: the crops have failed.
I'd pretty much written the iPhone off as insignificant. However the fact that Microsoft has seemed remarkably anxious to convince me that I'm right is giving me doubts.
Post may contain irony: discontinue use if experiencing mood swings, nausea or elevated blood pressure.
This has got to be 100% accurate, especially because it's coming from the company that sells the super successful Zune!
how this articles contents about Apple/iPhone comprises about 20% of it and that almost everyone ignores the rest of it just because Ballmer bashes the iPhone. Everyone get ready for the MS bashing bandwagon, it should be pulling up very soon.
Insert funny smart-ass comment here.
And Ballmer is right. That "insignificant" 3% market share of 1.3 billion handsets would translate to 39 million iPhones sold. Which translates to $19.5 billion in revenue. With a conservative 20% margin, that's $3.9 billion on the bottom line.
Isn't that the whole point of running a business?
... to his speach, you want to realise whoa we are talking about:
6 0049380308
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-48604837
I accept donations for an iPod via paypal!
Perhaps I'd better get in line outside the Apple store to buy one on the first day it goes on sale so I can turn around and resell it on EBay for some ludicrous sum if Apple really are that far off on their demand predictions.
"He was listening to Britney Spears' Greatest Hits."
Apple isn't a software or a hardware company! They create the whole damn thing, and as such they are a "consumer product" company. They don't sell this stuff to corporations (graphics and a couple of other things excluded), but the great "unwashed masses" who don't need to know the difference between hardware and software; they get the product and it just works.
2% of a $10b market is still good, especially when your talking about the high end of that market, with profits in the 15% range per device (Apple doesn't make anything at a lost).
BR I like your quip about his uncle though!
Buy the Zune. It's just like a gramophone, grandad. You can listen to all Vera Lynn .wma or Glen Miller .mp3 files.
...imagine a gramaphone that can hold as much as a 100" album, but it looks and sounds like a 12" album. No, I know there are no such things as 100" albums...
...and you can download lots of new music. What's that, grandad? Well, I wouldn't worry about not being able to understand the words, you can hardly hear now anyway. You know what? Forget it. Forget why I was even here, and... ...oh, you already forgot why I was here.
OK. I know where I went wrong, I started too technical. MP3
(three hours later)
You keep on saying the word pc laptop as if all makes were of the same quality. It's true you have to put in more work to find a good manufacturer and a good product line for them (like going with compaq's business line of products vs. their dreadful presario line a few years back) but for a lot of people a little research on quality reviews is worth the few hundred they can potentially save.
Hmmm... Pie...
CEO? I thought Steve was the chairman.
"Destroy science and religion. Science would re-emerge exactly the same; but not religion." - Penn Jillette, paraphrased
...but iPhone and Windows Mobile aren't competing with the 1.3 billion phones sold. They are competing for the same, relatively small subset of the market representing high-end smartphones with EMAIL and serious web-browsing facilities.
Now, in the MS corner, we have Windows Mobile. I have a fairly high-end Windows smartphone, and while I like the pwer of the thing, using it can be like kicking a dead whale along a beach. Using it as a music player is particularly excruciating. I would be very reluctant to recommend it to a non techie. Mind you, some basic phones are pretty nasty to use, as well.
Although nobody has seen an iPhone properly, Apple have a track record and would need to be having a very bad day not to produce something vastly more usable. Its not like XP vs. OSX: personally, ignoring security and reliability, I don't think that there is any clear blue water between OSX and Win2K/XP on the usability front - I actually prefer the XP GUI in some ways - but Windows Mobile feels like a throwback to Windows 2.
Its not that Apple stuff is perfect - just that it usually gives the impression that it was actually designed by people who gave a damn about the product in a world where many - if not most - other computer and home electronics products seem to have congealed out of a committee process.
Also - Apple seem to be capable of making "less is more" decisions. Notice that hardly anybody has matched Apple's minimalist design style? Other manufacturers have produced designer-y ranges but the extra buttons, chrome grills, go-faster stripes and blinkenlighten just creep back in - as if the designers are scared that punters will see "less chrome" as "less power". My phone has about a dozen buttons scattered about its periphery PLUS a thumbwheel PLUS a touch screen/stylus PLUS a slide out keyboard - and while you can pretty much do anything using just buttons, just touch-screen or just keyboard, you need a lot of practices and cover-to-cover RTFMing. Usually, you end up using an inefficient combo of all of them (untilyou drop the stylus). Apple have the cojones to say "no - you're not having any buttons or a slide-out keyboard" and, if they put all their efforts into making the touchscreen work really intuitively, they could have a winner that will "grow" the market for powerful smartphones.
The non-3G thing seems "interesting" though - perhaps it makes sense in the USA but I assume that they don't plan to launch in Europe without 3G or better...
In a survey of 100 programmers, 111111 thought that duck-typing was a good idea.
"Please direct your attention to my blatant grandstanding, and ignore the sound of Vista belly flopping in the background. Thank you."
-Steve Ballmer
"Always forgive your enemies; nothing annoys them so much." - Oscar Wilde
Squirts Ballboy said: I don't think Apple or Microsoft should be imposing its will on folks The US DOJ certainly agrees with you on the subject of Monkeysoft, Mr Ballboy.
Squirts Ballboy said: Really understanding the power of advertising as an Internet business model we came to later than I wish we had. That's the No. 1 thing I regret. We underinvested in some opportunities for a while. Translation: "GOOOOoooggggllllle! Maybe I'm NOT EVER going to f***ing KILL those guys!"
Squirts Ballboy said: And the CEO in a lot of ways becomes the icon for many things in the business. The CEO establishes culture. He's an icon for drivel-frothing, promoted-beyond-their-intelligence senior executives everywhere.
Rich And Stupid is not so bad as Working For Rich And Stupid.
I like that the only evidence that Gates did not say the 640k thing is Bill Gate's denying it.
To quote Mandy Rice-Davies, "Well, he would, wouldn't he?"
While 500 bucks is more than mere pocket change to me, I'd consider buying an iPhone. Unfortunately, it's listed as EDGE, and not 3G. Santa Barbara goes to 3G in June, so the iPhone becomes somewhat obsolete the day it comes out here. And that's already the case for Bakersfield (I think they were the first in California to go 3G). I don't know what the rest of the country is like, but I think Apple really dropped the ball by not making their "Next Gen" phone work on the "Next Gen" network that goes live at the same time they debut the phone. I guess I'll wait for a competitor to 1up them or wait for version 2.
Network Security: It always comes down to a big guy with a gun.
Seriously, this guy actually reproduced with someone? He's got enough in common with another human being on this planet, and that other human being finds something about him charming enough to actually mate and reproduce? Wow. I'm not going to make a "good/bad" judgment on the guy, but he truly seems like a weirdo. I have to imagine that he was the kid in school who the jocks didn't like and the nerds didn't like, he just sat by himself at the lunch table waiting for the day when he could be arrogant and distant without anyone talking back to him.
And it would be dropped because it's slippery...
h ones_s.html
http://blogs.business2.com/apple/2007/04/apple_ip
Ramen
I'm still looking for a phone that can connect to my wireless network and register as a sip client more reliably than my Nokia E70. The E70 does everything I want but seems to be rather unreliable. It seems to only be on my network about half the time it should be when it's in range. And bluetooth laptop tethering doesn't seem to be allowed by any of the GSM carriers in the USA. I don't believe the iPhone resolves that one either. I admit I don't fall in to the usual cell phone customer demographic. I just want a handset that I can carry and use anywhere, which behaves intelligently to get me the least expensive calling route and which allows me to break out the laptop and start surfing the Internet without having to take the phone out of my pocket. Unfortunately all that stuff conflicts with the cell company's business model. We have the technology to do it now, but no one wants to implement it.
I'm trying to teach myself to set people on fire with my mind... Is it hot in here?
As a member of the mobile telecoms industry, I have mixed feelings about the iphone-
logistically speaking, I don't think it's going to be a great move for Apple. A number of factors will bite them in the ass- which should be fixed by the 2nd or 3rd generation (a la ipods).
Here's why:
Form factor
While the Iphone is pretty, it's going to be a nightmare to keep clean and scratch free. Ipods are ridiculously scratch-prone, and the fact that there is an entire secondary market to keep what is otherwise great product from being damaged b/c apple can't figure that out is silly. I never had to get a 'skin' for my walkman in the 80s.... The iphone will have the same problem. I predict an entire secondary market to keep people's face-grease off that shiny beautiful screen.
Size
Treos are too big. Most blackberries are too big- the iphone is also too big for mass adoption. The RZR is a crappy phone, but people like it for the size- it fits in your pocket well. The iphone will not.
Network
You can say what you want about Cingular, but going with them is a good idea. They have extensive if not mediocre coverage across the entire country and are spending bucketloads to roll out a HSDPA 3G data network. Unfortunately, Apple screwed up the second half of the equation and decided to not offer 3G on the iphone. Imagine your surprise when you buy a $500 device that downloads stuff from the apple store on EDGE (56k-ISDN speed).
Cost
Ridiculous. Phones are expensive and many of them are subsidized by carriers in return for contracts (the phone really DOES cost that much without the contract). I'm not sure if there is a subsidy involved in the iphone, but you can bet your bottom dollar that EVERY SINGLE OTHER MANUFACTURER IS FRANTICALLY DEVOLOPING AN IPHONE KILLER RIGHT NOW. They will ALL cost less than $500.
Music Capability
4 GB sucks.
I have no doubt that this will all be fixed in time- but I contend that the 1st gen is going to have to surpass some pretty huge handicaps to gain wide acceptance. Admittedly, that's not going to stop the fanbois, but I'm willing to bet that for $500 people are going to do some SERIOUS research before picking one up.
Ballmer literally guffawed when the iPhone was announced, saying 'Who would pay $500 for a phone??'
I like Apple's attitude, which has been how can we build a communications/entertainment device worth $500?
You can be like Ballmer and let your market define your possibilities (e.g. 'Phones have these features and cost this much, now make the best one you can') or you can redefine the platform.
I like the flipside argument that Ballmer used regarding the OLPC: "A $100 laptop is just a toy. Who would want that?" Apple seems to have taken this advice to heart, building a device worth more than the current price points for phones.
The thing about cellphones is that it's zero-sum: You're probably only going to use one. For those who want the best phone for their needs, they're likely to be willing to pay a premium. The iPhone costs 2.5% of a reasonable car, and only a third as much as a good laptop. I'm happy to have such a powerful device in my pocket if it means I can ditch my iPod, camera, blackberry and RAZR. Oh yeah, and it's a lot funner to use.
Kevin Fox
So that all explains why the zune is so big: it's built for 85 year old uncles... small parts and scroll wheels are hard on arthritic hands.
Well I'll be a Ballmer's Uncle!
You can't handle the truth.
The supposed debunking of the 640k quote is from BillyG himself. If you said something that fucking stupid, wouldn't you deny it, too, if no one had an audio recording of the event?
The only argument AGAINST the argument I'm making is that when he visited Acorn computer he said "What's a network" and he hasn't denied that. Yet.
"You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
I was at an Oscars party and I am ashamed to admit that I asked everyone to quiet down for the iPhone advertisement.
Some guy I didn't know said, "Oh, man, whatever. Fucking iPhone."
I said, "That's funny. You're the first person I've heard from who doesn't like the idea of an iPhone who doesn't work for its competitors. I have one friend who works at OQO and thinks it's dumb because it only has GPRS, and another friend who works at Danger and thinks it's dumb because it doesn't have a keyboard. So you're the first civilian. What don't you like about the iPhone?"
He said, "Wait, who do you know at Danger?"
Because I was wrong. He also works on the SideKick. That is the only reason you might not think the iPhone is fucking awesome: it is about to eat your lunch.
There are no trails. There are no trees out here.
That's interesting, and goes against what I might have thought too.
Personally, I still suspect they are more 'productive' (that is to say, in terms of the end result - thinking of say, the number of people who worked on Vista and the number who worked on Tiger, and comparing the two OS's, and of respective achievements (the only thing Microsoft has done recently that really stands out is build a decent on-line games console, which no one else was doing - at least not since the Dreamcast).
I suspect that's down to Apple primarily making money through hardware, rather than through software (with the margins on hardware being a lot smaller than they are form selling the same old OS millions of times over).
That's just a theory, but seems to backed up by looking at the revenue (Apple's being a bit under 20M USD a year, with MS's a bit over 44M USD). Maybe the picture will change as online music, TV and film sales take off. Will be interesting to see.
One thing that really irks me is the cost of Vista compared to say a new copy of the Mac OS. I mean, they are roughly comparible in terms of features (as much as I think the balance is in the Mac's favour, there is of course a hell of a lot more off the shelf software for Windows), so I can't see any justification for the crazy pricetag on something like Vista. Even the cheapest OEM version of Vista Ultimate is about twice the price of a new version of Mac OS!
-- Ooops I went off topic here, but I'm going to leave it in! --
AND you are 'licenced' to run one copy of Mac OS on up 5 Mac's in your house, not that Mac OS tracks your hardware, requires online activation, or a serial number (and if it goes in for serving and needs reinstalling, they just install the latest version for you, no questions asked). It makes things soo much easier when you have to 'help' with friends computers when you can be laissez faire about the OS.
As happened recently with a Windows computer I was reparing for a friend of my folks (while on holiday! boo!), "Oh, you can't find the OS CD anymore, sorry I can't install one for you - I've only got one Key and it's already registered to me - I can put in a new HD to replace the broken one, but you'll have to go and buy another copy OS and install it yourself").
Totally retarded. At least they are selling Vista online now (from what I gather - you can get a legit key and download the ISO from MS). The idea of a 'free trial' of the final Release Candidate was a good idea too (valid until June/July, and can be registered as 'final release' by putting in a retail activation key).
Given the price, you'd think Microsoft would at least grant to licence to use a single copy on as many machines on your house as you might reasonably want to (rather than the perverse option of technically refusing to let you install more 'basic' versions of the product on more than one machine, ever).
And my mom says I'm smart! YOU'RE mom said that I'm a great lay!
Overall market share numbers capture the vast scale of PC disposability, but do not reflect the product profitability that comes from building a better quality product.
While Apple is cited by Gartner and IDC as selling around 5% of all the computers in the US, it isn't obvious that Apple's 5% share is the cream of the market; it's actually worth more than the same or larger percentage shares held by rivals.
There were 9.8 million Macs sold in the last two years, up from 6.2 million in the previous two year period. Those numbers don't compare with the stunning volume of PCs shipped by HP and Dell--which each sold 38 million PCs in 2006 alone--but Apple's profits do.
In the forth quarter of last year, HP and Dell combined sold 10 times as many PCs as Apple in the US, earned 5.5 times as much revenue as Apple, but together only ended up with 2.2 times as much net income as Apple.
In other words, Apple earned nearly half as much net income with its 5% share the market as HP and Dell together, with their combined 55% share of the US PC market: $1 billion for Apple vs $2.2 billion for HP and Dell together!
I made it through about 30% of the article and just can't read any more. This is typical Steve Balmer and therefore there is nothing here but marketing junk and chest thumping of how great he and Microsoft are and will continue to be. Sorry but reality is that Balmer and Gates were handed a monopoly which they've leveraged to the hilt but can't make a dent outside of. They just lost another $300 million in the last THREE MONTHS in the MSN division. They've lost over $10 BILLION in over ten years on the Microsoft Windows CE based productline and it's still a loser. XBox, a loser. But somehow he's all cocky that they'll beat Google, the Apple iPhone won't do well but Zune is all "crack-a-lack'n" and a big deal. All of these losing products and product lines are funded by profits from MS Windows and MS Office and even with no hope of ever being profitable, they'll keep dumping money into them so the others in those fields don't grow to threaten Windows. My gawd, I'm still hearing people complain of Windows CE/Windows Mobile/PocketPC/etc crashing after over ten years on the market!
I just can't read any more of his marketing speak. It's not even closely tied to reality. Maybe that he trained as CEO under Enron's Jeff Skilling is telling of how truthful he is?
It also doesn't help that the interviewer is spineless and lets Balmer go without answering questions.
IMO
LoB
"Anyone who stands out in the middle of a road looks like roadkill to me." --Linus
"But my 85-year-old uncle probably will never own an iPod, and I hope we'll get him to own a Zune." There is sell and there is sell not, there is no 'hope'!.....And this is why you fail....
Steve, this is your uncle. I own an iPod. I have for about a year now. Steve, you have been ignoring me - probably because I told you to stop with all that "killing" nonsense. I like Google better, get over it. Too busy working out to throw chairs farther distances it seems.
Next time, talk to me before embarrassing yourself like this.
Best,
Uncle Charles
I'll bet that Microsoft can't comeout with a better product than the Iphone. After all, look at the Zune vs Ipod.
Who cares what Ballmer thinks at this point (actually, who cares about Ballmer at all)? The iPhone is gonna ship in a couple of months and then we'll know.
I won't be buying one for $500, but if they subsidize it to under $200 and if it can do it synchronization over the air, I might.
Whats he sportin now-a-days, 48C's?
Whether or not UAC is a copy of sudo, it certainly has the potential to improve security across Windows user base which is a good thing and better than nothing.
.NET applications, here's how to decorate application buttons etc. with the Vista UAC shield to indicate elevate-required actions since there doesn't seem to be any documentation on how to do this from within .NET: http://www.buildingsecurecode.com/2007/04/03/progr ammatically-displaying-the-windows-user-account-co ntrol-uac-elevated-shield-icon-in-net-windows-form -application-buttons/
Anyhow if you are writing
Thanks,
Kevin
--
Kevin Lam
Impacta LLC (http://www.impactalabs.com)
"Risk management solutions working for you"
You have a valid point. There's another interesting way to look at this issue, however. People's choices affect other people at times and in ways they don't always anticipate or even care about if informed. The classic example is the protective helmet. If you ride your bicycle or motorcycle without a helmet, you are contributing to a social problem (head injuries) which cost me (the taxpayer) money. Eventually somebody (insurance companies and Medicare) get tired of paying for stupidity and persuade Congress (or State Legislatures) change a law to reduce the cost to the society as a whole from individual stupidity.
If you choose to run Windows that's fine on the level of the individual decision. In theory, I don't care what you run on your PC so long as you and I have access to web sites, can exchange email and photographs, etc. We can be friends and share data freely without even knowing what type of system the other person uses.
However, I care about the fact that email is very nearly useless now. I care about identity theft. I care about industry and government data which is protected in order to reduce the proliferation of nuclear weapons technology.
How many billions of dollars must be stolen or wasted and how many years must pass before we admit that there are systemic problems with security on Windows which seem to be deeply rooted not solely in hubris as often thought, but also in more subtle philosophy, technology, and methodology choices? These go back decades, and have enabled an enormous industry in identity theft and spamvertising to take root and thrive despite, ahem, entirely new versions of Windows which are, ahem, more secure than ever. Some of these problems can be fixed, and some of them have been substantially mitigated if not outright fixed, for decades, on UNIX. The sad realization that Microsoft apologists refuse to admit is that development methodology and management philosophy affect the security of products produced by the organizations practicing them.
If software vendors were held liable for the expensive calamities that result from their security defects, would the technology industry collapse? Or would it adjust, and then march steadily on, with a greater emphasis placed on security? I suspect it would not collapse, but I don't have the lobbying dollars t back up my position, and neither does anybody else who shares it (thus far). The recent law suits brought against TJX by banks over stolen credit card data may portend a coming shift in alliances. If the banks turn against the software industry next, we will see a shakeup in political alliances and an eventual fight in Congress over this issue. Until then, the issue will remain the abstract musing of the occasional columnist or security analyst.
Discussions of botnets in forums like Slashdot often include the idea that individual home users should be held accountable for the security of their home PC. Well, should they really? They didn't sign up for that. Are they held accountable for the global security implications of their refrigerator? No, they are not because there aren't any except for a few highly abstract issues related to the resources it took to build it and the energy it takes to run it. With a home PC the global security implications are complex, but not highly abstract, rather they are quite direct. Your home PC can be used to steal your identity which could be sold to raise funds for terrorism, for example, which is pretty direct. It can be used to attack other hosts or assist with Distributed Denial of Service attacks on hosts or entire networks, which is unambiguously direct: PC -> Shitstorm.
Quite frankly, the statistics are stark and unforgiving. Windows: roughly 100,000 "known viruses" vs. roughly zero for the Macintosh (margin of error +/- 5 (five)). Twenty percent of home Windows PCs infected vs. roughly zero percent of home Macintosh or Linux systems infected (margin of error +/- 1/100 of 1%). If a relationship bet
If you mod me down, I shall become more powerful than you could possibly imagine.
He is from Microsoft after all.
Talk is cheap, many people love to chime in they will buy one, but I bet they won't.
I'll buy one !
music lover since 1969
And believe me, Ballmer has thrown his PPC phone against the wall (instead of a chair) like the rest of us.
Numbers... the facts but not the truth.
As opposed to the overwhelming evidence that he did say it? There's no evidence either way and the man himself denies it, we don't have much else to go on.
"But my 85-year-old uncle probably will never own an iPod, and I hope we'll get him to own a Zune.'"
-- Prepared at the direction of, or to be sent to Legal Counsel, in anticipation of litigation. Attorney Client Pri
ten years from now, the poor uncle will be dead, while the younger audience, which has proliferated, will all own ipods. It doesn't matter that old people don't like a product. you market to the young, and they'll be with you for a very very long time.
If you're 15 and he's still waiting for your younger sister to arrive... yeah, that might be offensive.
What is 48C?
The iPhone would hardly be a bust if they got 2 or 3% market share of 1.3 billion phones would equate to 16.25 billion dollars in sales. So assuming Apple makes 20% profit (a conservative estimation for most Apple products) that is an extra 3.25 billion dollars in PROFIT. I believe Apple made around 550 million in the last quarter of 06 so assuming they did that well the entire year (which they didn't) that's still over a 100% increase in profit. If that's a failure, I'd like to fail twice please. If the CEO of Microsoft is expecting them to get that kind of market penetration I'd say that is a huge incentive to buy Apple stock. Of course he also expects 85 year olds to buy a Zune... so perhaps we should just ignore his opinion entirely. (The last sentence probably deserves to get me marked Troll)
Moderation is not supposed to be used as an indicator of agreement.
But my 85-year-old uncle probably will never own an iPod, and I hope we'll get him to own a Zune.
Ownership of something is easy to achieve. I'd be more impressed if you can get the guy to actually USE the thing. Surely he can afford to buy a Zune and give it to his uncle, who then owns it. That doesn't mean a darn thing if uncle puts it on a shelf somewhere and forgets about it.
Ever since I first heard of the iPhone, I have been predicting we'll eventually see entire landfills full of the things, right next to the Lisa and all those Atari 2600 ET game cartridges.
The iPhone is simply too limiting due to the ties to AT&T/Cingulair's crappy wireless networking service and the lack of support for third-party software outside of Apple's circle. The iPhone's "Mac OS X" is not really "Mac OS X" if it can't protect itself from malicious 3rd party code. However, I believe this is more about imposing limits on how the user can use the network connection, as third party apps may not "phone home" their network/bandwidth usage to Apple or use Apple-approved services that Apple can directly bill the user for.
In the meanwhile, iPod owners are going to start expecting these features on the G6 iPods, which Apple will be forced to avoid offering to prevent cutting into the iPhone's market. At its fullest potential, an iPhone-style iPod/PDA could potentially allow 3rd party development outside of Apple's circle, since there is no extra Apple services to support outside of 802.11 wifi connections to ITMS and itunes host systems on the local network.
The iPhone will only last as long as the initial "cool" factor is in effect. Once the reality of its limitations set in, very few people will buy one. Most services that support your average Palm Treo unit will offer better service plans and will support 3rd party software without extra charges for it. It seems unlikely the iPhone will ever follow suit.
8==8 Bones 8==8
According to a Bloomberg News article I found, the global cellphone market is forecast to grow 12% over the previous year and reach 1.14 billion units in 2007.
The same article describes how Motorola grabbed 4% more of the market,with Sony Ericcsson the star performer grabbing 8%.
Sony Ericcsson models (at least the one with music that I wanted to buy) when I looked cost about $500 bucks. These things aren't subsidized either. You pay a chunk up front and then a chunk all along.
So Ballmer says Apple will grab 2%? Wow. 2% of 1.14 billion is 22.8 million units. At $500 each, that's over 11 billion dollars. Apple's sales for the fiscal year ending Sept. 2006 was$19 billion. So Ballmer says they are going to have *only* this incredible success, whereas if Apple pulls anything at all interesting out of this hat it has a chance at going like Sony Ericcson, which actually has worse design and features than the iPhone?
That, plus the trend for phones toward full browsers, larger screens and music. Maybe not in the U.S. where people don't spend money and are happy with motorola bricks, but there is a distinct possibility the iPhone could grab market overseas too.
My forecast is Microsoft needs to start ordering in chairs by the busload.
Vista will be years before it stops sucking. See, you've got two solutions right there to the out-of-control breast milk problem, but somehow you're not making the connection.
"I have just not seen laptop offerings competitive with Apple's."
Then take off your iBlinders and look around, there is a whole world out there you may not have seen!
"But this one goes to 11!"
...tooling around the home in his wheel chair squirting other oldies! What a hoot!
LOL at "iBlinders"...
But, seriously, while I overgeneralized, for my own needs, my statement is true.
If you can find me another dual-core laptop with a 15.4" screen that weighs under six pounds, is about an inch think (I won't ask for "less than an inch" as I know no one else has done that), has an elegant (i.e. as un-Alienware-like as possible) design, can drive a 2560x1600 external monitor, and can last 4 hours on a battery charge, I'd be thrilled to find out about it. I haven't seen such a product from any maker. The closest I've found is the T60 widescreen, and it's over six pounds and can't drive the big display.
While I do not like Ballmer at all, with respect to the iPhone he is likely right - not necessarily, however, for the reasons he stated.
First, the iPhone is marketed at the cell phone market but is far more than a cell phone - it's practically a hand-held laptop. (I say "hand-held laptop" because it is more than a PDA too.) So, from the aspect of market - it's the wrong market; at least that is how it is being presented, but that also leads too...
Two, the price is too high for its market. $500 for a phone is not going to sell. Yes, you'll get the Apple/Mac loyalists, so you may get 2%-5% of the market, but you're only going to get a small market. However, if you push the iPhone as something other than a phone (i.e. change the market it is being targeted to) then $500 may end up being quite reasonable depending upon the market you chose to go into.
The problem is that Apple is trying to avoid the PDA market and trying to get into the cell phone market. They want to stay out of the PDA market, because everyone will remember the Apple Newton and it will die because of that alone, even if it is a great product. So they chose the cell phone market. Ok, but they are packing too much into it.
So...more likely than not, the iPhone will fail, and it will be very surprising if it is any where near as successful as say Yahoo in Internet searches vs Google.
Truth is like the sun. You can shut it out for a time, but it ain't goin' away. - Elvis Presley (source: imdb.com)
What Mr. Willam Gates III might have said back then is something akin to this:
"Of the one megabyte of addressable memory that IBM's PC architecture uses, DOS allows 640 kilobytes for user programs. This should be enough for most applications."
Remember, people: IBM's architecture, not Microsoft's. And single-application OS with no fancy-schmancy virtual memory or usable multitasking. Also, this was back when memory was a luxury, and applications were written to optimize it as much as possible. VisiCalc for instance was a fully functional spreadsheet in a 27 (or 29?) kilobyte executable.
Price of the iPhone is close to, say, a Nokia "PDA-phone" like the latest in the 900 series. And I doubt Nokia would make them if people didn't buy them. So Apple does not need to lower the price.
And in response to Micro$oft, Steve Jobs asks, "What is the Zune again?..." I seriously haven't seen one outside of a store. Ever.
> With the iPod they arrived "fashionably late", well before the
> party was going, but not until they knew it was going to be a good party.
Really? Is that what people said? "Oh, gee, the iPod is here to make money on this market that's going through the roof."
I remember it being more like, "Apple has no idea what they're doing. No one wants an expensive, heavy harddrive-based iPod when they can buy a cheaper, lighter flash-based device with a horrible interface."
The iPod *created* the mainstream MP3 player market. Before the iPod it was just nerds who owned the darn things. Now the nerds and their grandparents own iPods.
So don't tell me Apple's late to the party. We won't know how the party's going until the guest of honor shows up.
I'm not sure I'll buy an iPhone, but I also didn't rush out a buy the first iPod either. Now I'm on my third iPod and I use it for things I hadn't even thought of when the first one came out. The same thing may very well happen with the iPhone, but no one will know until lots of people have had some time actually using it.
"Powered by two thousand industrial strength rubber bands,"
Typical Microsoft crappy engineering - surgical tubing would have been much more elegant.
Notice Stevie B. said he hoped to make his 84 year old uncle Fester (NSFW) a Zune owner not a user. One is clearly easier to achieve than the other. Low expectations are a key ingredient of the M$ success formula.
Friends don't help friends install M$ junk.
"But my 85-year-old uncle probably will never own an iPod, and I hope we'll get him to own a Zune."
So I'm guessing Ballmer has given up on everyone under 85 and only has a "hope" of selling Zunes to those over 85.
"Zune, squirt any song to your pals in the assisted-living-social. They won't live long enough to listen to it 3 times anyway."
I've noticed Balmer appearing/interview on a number of media outlets recently. ... Why do they feel the need for publicity now?
No one can get enough Fester! This time he even mentioned an old uncle. Cue those terrible Canadians, "Shut your f-----g face uncle f----r!...." Now go buy Vista, lots of it is sitting on shelves. Please go buy vista, I'll put a lightbulb in my mouth for you if you do.
On second thought, please don't.
Friends don't help friends install M$ junk.
I was quite looking forward to it until I found out it won't allow 3rd party apps. I can only speak for myself, but that killed any chance I'd buy one. No device is ever perfect so a degree of customisation is simply required to make it work for the end user. So, I myself am not part of its target market, but I can live with that :-)
Insert
Unless of course your Grandfather is suffering from any of the many mental ailments that can afflict the elderly, he'd be a downright jackass to bother owning a Zune.
It had potential, but like Ubuntu, you foolishly chose brown. Nobody likes brown. "Check out my turd like mp3 player!!" Is not something kids usually say with pride, adults or grandpa, either.
It had potential, but like HD DVD and Bluray, you foolishly chose to add DRM. Nobody likes DRM. "Hey, you want to check out this song? Oh never mind, YOU CAN'T." That will make you cool among your peers!
It had potential, but like every ipod, there is no joystick, so there are no games. I've heard you can put doom on the ipod. I imagine with that kind of power you could put a myriad of great, fun games, but without a controller, who's going to play them?
It doesn't use a giant touchscreen, so you can't watch a movie on the WHOLE device, a la a giant screen, like the iPhone will have, so movie watching sucks, as does TV (or other downloaded videos).
Nor does it work well for any other functions.
It plays mp3s, albeit not as well as the ipod, and it does so in an ugly brown case, laden with DRM that makes it difficult to use AS YOU WOULD ACTUALLY LIKE TO USE IT. Further: Having used one on a client's computer (I frequently do repairs for a little cash on the side), it didn't sync very well, and I absolutely loathed the proprietary crap software you are forced to use with it. It's really just as bad as iTunes, which is equally loathsome, bloated, and not FOSS.
Who are you competing with? How is your product worth buying on any level? Are MS execs all huffing glue? How many of the eight people who actually bought your turdp3 player are happy with it? Three?
I hold very few opinions. I hold information based on observation and fact. If you wish to disagree, please use facts.
Yeah, it sounds like you are looking for a pretty specific setup.
I think most everything on your list except the 2560 x 1600 external isn't too hard to find. I just purchased a Dell Latitude D820 Core Duo 2.0 MHz for someone I work with that weighs in at about 6 1/4 pounds due to the 9 cell battery, which he said lasts over 5 hours. It has a 512 MB NVidia Quadro NVS mobile graphics card in in that will almost, but not quite, hit what you are looking for - it will do 2048 x 1536. It has a 15.4" screen, 2 GB of RAM, DVD-RW and cost him $1400 including shipping. That also include a 3 year warranty. Disclaimer - I do work at a university that gets discounts on Dell, Lenovo, and Apple hardware. However, I checked Dell's Small Business site, and with the discounts they have now the same rig would have been about $100 or so more. Disclaimer #2 - becuase the university I work has an arrangement with Dell, we also get their Higher Education and Government telehone technical support. This means we get to talk to native English speakers in good old Texas. I would hesitate to recommend Dell for home users unless you want to talk to a support center in India when you have problems. I also priced him out a MacBook Pro Core Duo 2.16 MHz with the similar specs and it came to $2000 - with the university discounted price. The person I purchased the laptop for had used both PCs and Macs in the past, and to him the $600 savings was worth not having the Mac. Now my boss on the other hand, always goes out and buys whatever new toys Apple is putting out this month, no matter the cost. He is exactly Apple's target market.
Out of curiosity, which mobile video card will do 2560 x 1600? The MacBook Pro I looked at had an ATI Radeon X1600, not sure what the max external resoultion was though.
"But this one goes to 11!"
Why shouldn't M$ market to dead people? Just look at all the nice things dead people have done for M$. Believe it or not, they have updated things for Zune with less success than they had convincing GWB not to dismantle them. For all the services rendered, dead people will be rewarded with one non refundable, non transferable, surplus Zune. Jokes about "squirting" Uncle Fester here are beneath even my low standards of humor.
Friends don't help friends install M$ junk.
http://www.webweavertech.com/ovidiu/weblog/gallery /richard-stallman/richard-stallman-Images/1.jpg
Late to the party but my thoughts, hopefully not covered, are:
... and then is a phone, makes it very affordable to me.
I dont have an ipod yet.
The fact that this phone has an ipod and works like a treo (internet and other goodies)
And my wife. (but she owns an ipod already so maybe less attractive)
I plan to get an ipod and this would save me carrying one gadget.
Mostly all depends on the phone plan and if I am as connected as I am from my traditional cell.
Still, I can't believe that the collective intelligence of Microsoft would appoint him president and CEO for no good reason -- there are many other execs at Microsoft who I'm sure would love the chance instead of him. Not just "without" a good reason either; they appointed him CEO knowing how he is, and all I've seen of him just seems to be reason not to want him running your company.
He has to have some good qualities that makes him suitable for the position, no? I'm almost starting to believe that he's just acting retarded in public to make people think that he's much less of a man than he really is. Call me paranoid, but I almost think that explanation (though he'd have to be a good actor) makes more sense than that he really is retarded and got to be CEO in spite of it.
The X1600 in all MBP's ever built will drive the 2560x1600 displays. (Some of them are 128MB and some are 256MB, and the cards in the C2D models are clocked faster, but they are all capable of the same resolutions.) I think the issue is not so much high resolutions per se as the dual-link DVI port. Not many laptops come with any sort of DVI port, and those that do tend to be single-link. I may well have missed something but the only other laptops I've seen that will drive these monitors are the 9-pound gaming monsters (the ones that usually have 2 HDs, a killer video card, and 1/2 hour battery life).
I will admit that, in the educational or large-business environment, you do end up paying a premium for Apple laptops as they are just not discounted as heavily. (Just today, I was looking at our university's prices on widescreen T60s, and a configuration comparable to a $1899 MBP configuration was selling for $1599. At retail, they're within a few bucks of each other.) Call me a snob, but I'll still pay, both because I find the hardware design orders of magnitude more appealing and because I prefer OS X.
Sorry if someone already said this, the thread is getting long. But the high end market is never about share. If 3%, or 3 million, computers sold in a year are high end systems @ $2500, and 50% of the computers sold in a year, or 50 million, are $400 crap boxes, the market for servers is more than a third the size of crap volume systems ($7.5Bil vs $20Bil). It may not be quite so close, but you get the picture. Further, the $400 systems probably run on single digit margins whereas the high end is probably in the 15-20% range, so their profit is actually greater than the low end. Balmer knows that apple is out to take a significant ammount of the profit out of the pie even if the market share is very low, and even if he puts on a nice facade. Calling that 1% of the market insignificant is like calling an atom bomb insignificant because there is only one of them. If MS was run as a business the way their rhetoric is brandished they would have gone out of business a long time ago. It is rather insulting to listen to people like this try to tell me I should be their customer with shallow statements that only an idiot could believe. So you are telling me I'm your kind of idiot, huh Steve?
http://www.microsoft.com/msft/reports/ar06/flashve rsion/10k_fr_dis.html
Mobile and Embedded Devices
Operating Income 2006 -- $2 Million profit
Operating Income 2005 -- $65 Million loss
Operating Income 2004 -- $237 Million loss
I don't think it will be too hard for the iPhone to be more successful than MS's mobile division.
Yeah....well I'll bet that organized crime rings make more money per employee than Apple does too.
Tolerance does not tolerate intolerance, or hypocrisy.
So Microsoft is going for the geriatric market? Maybe they just hope that the younger crowd will inherit their grandparents' zunes when they die.
-dKL
You are aware, are you not, that there are documented cases within the past 12 months of zero-day exploits which were targetted at *individual* users? It may well be the case that the system that you, likely a trained and skilled system administrator, maintain, hasn't been equipped with a rootkit by a virus or worm. Howeverr, the fantastically high infestation rate of Windows, and the remarkably low (nearly zero) infestation rate of Macintosh systems, a condition which has persisted now for seven years, must at some point be accepted as evidence that perhaps something is amiss in Redmond. None of those people need more than a few minutes of training to run their refrigerator, their television, or their car, but 20% of them at any given time have an infested PC 0wn3d bi th3m.
Although I'm happy that you personally have managed to escape unscathed, your annecote is revealed to be irrelevant by the basic statistics.
If you mod me down, I shall become more powerful than you could possibly imagine.
Consider that it's likely that they want to be Sony, not MS--or rather, have been trying to become what Sony should've been.
Let's see:
In each of these cases, you can see Apple following Sony's lead, but trying to do it right. While Sony is a behemoth with a zillion products, Apple is picking away at the high-profile successes that Sony has had, and one-upping. It will be interesting to see if Apple gets back into optics, and tackles the camera market.
Damn those pesky terrorists
Interesting market share numbers, considering 2003 IDC estimates:
"By 2006, IDC believes Symbian will have increased its market share in powerful phones to 53 percent from its current 46 percent. Microsoft will have about 27 percent of the market, with Palm at 10 percent. IDC predicts that Linux could take as much as 4.2 percent."
Microsoft didn't live up to the hype. Nor did Palm. The small competitors went wild.
Why Call people when you can 'Squirt' at them?
Zune is Way better than iPhone,
just look how Zune Completely Eliminated iPods from the market!
The iPhone costs $550 and has virtually no feature set. Compare that to our new ZuneMobileVistaWinceCommunicatorAudioThing. We give you not just a touchscreen interface but a pull-out keyboard, a flip-up trackball, a slide-over rotary dial and, for the Asian markets, a fold-out abacus. There's voice control, touch control, morse-code control and thought control (that last is the phone controlling you). We play all the popular audio and movie formats - WMV, MP3, 8-track cartridges and ViewMaster discs. You can open and edit Word and Excel documents and our large colour screen can display as many as four spreadsheet cells at a time. And usability? You an answer an incoming call in only eleven key-clicks!
--- Yx3 = Delilah ---
I've never understood Bush, and I doubt I ever will. Seriously, every single thing that guy does or says in public really makes him seem retarded. Sure, not everything he does looks this stupid, but for sure I've never heard him say anything which seems quite wise or insightful. Still, I can't believe that the collective intelligence of the United States would appoint him president for no good reason -- there are many other politicians in the House and Senate who I'm sure would love the chance instead of him. Not just "without" a good reason either; the people appointed him president knowing how he is, and all I've seen of him just seems to be reason not to want him running your country. He has to have some good qualities that makes him suitable for the position, no? I'm almost starting to believe that he's just acting retarded in public to make people think that he's much less of a man than he really is. Call me paranoid, but I almost think that explanation (though he'd have to be a good actor) makes more sense than that he really is retarded and got to be president in spite of it.
"We can categorically state we have not released man-eating badgers into the area." - UK military spokesman, July 2007
Ballmer: "they make make a lot of money, but..."
Different goals.
Microsoft wants to control the world.
Apple wants to make a lot of money.
You definitely missed the point. When you ride your motorcycle without a helmet, you are entertaining what society has deemed to be an unacceptanbly high risk that you will wind up a vegetable, on life support, sucking down tax dollars for decades. When you drive Windows, perhaps the externalized costs are significant, since you are part of the aggregate problem, whether you get hit by a truck or not.
If you mod me down, I shall become more powerful than you could possibly imagine.
Apple iPhone won't be a bust. It will just have a niche audience. The average person on the street will find it too costly, but it will be hit among the well-to-do.