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"Back Door" Cheating Scandal Rocks Online Poker

AcidAUS sends us the story of an online poker cheating ring that netted an estimated $10M for its perpetrators over almost 4 years. The article spotlights the role of an Australian player who first performed the statistical analyses that demonstrated that cheating had to be going on. "In two separate cases, Michael Josem, from Chatswood, analyzed detailed hand history data from Absolute Poker and UltimateBet and uncovered that certain player accounts won money at a rate too fast to be legitimate. His findings led to an internal investigation by the parent company that owns both sites. It found rogue employees had defrauded players over three years via a security hole that allowed the cheats to see other player's secret (or hole) cards." The (Mohawk) Kahnawake Gaming Commission, which licenses the two poker companies, has released its preliminary report. MSNBC reporting from a couple of weeks back gives deep background on the scandal.

427 comments

  1. *mucks his hand* by Stanistani · · Score: 3, Funny

    Not a bad deal, but I'll want to see the flop.

    1. Re:*mucks his hand* by D'Sphitz · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Thank god the moral police have arrived.

    2. Re:*mucks his hand* by mparcens · · Score: 1

      So why should the poker business not exist? The players that got scammed in this instance were not only the net-losers, but the net-winners, people who do not "throw their money away", as you so summarily dismissed the situation.

    3. Re:*mucks his hand* by gnick · · Score: 2, Informative

      So, is this a matter of the "poor players" who deserve better, even though they don't really deserve anything better than to lose all their money, which they did?

      ...
      The players chose to throw their money away, while the business shouldn't exist in the first place.

      I think you've confused poker with roulette. Someone who is much better at poker than the people he's playing with will come out ahead in the long term, assuming that nobody's cheating. If everyone at the table is equally good/bad, the house rake will slowly drain their $$, but hopefully they all have a good time and possibly improve their game. Again, assuming that nobody's cheating - In that case their $$ will be quickly drained and the game will probably be frustrating to all involved.

      Poker, although it involves some element of chance, is a game of skill - Much different than roulette/craps/slots/etc. What's with the poker-hate?

      --
      He's getting rather old, but he's a good mouse.
    4. Re:*mucks his hand* by vux984 · · Score: 2, Insightful

      So why should the poker business not exist?

      Online poker for real money shouldn't exist because its virtually impossible to ensure systematic cheating isn't taking place.

    5. Re:*mucks his hand* by a+whoabot · · Score: 3, Insightful

      I might lose 25 dollars a month playing poker for 10 hours of entertainment, because I'm not that good, but still I only play 5 dollar games that aren't winner-takes all. My neighbour rents 5 movies a month for 10 hours of entertainment, spending 25 dollars. He's the good guy and I'm the bad guy why exactly?

    6. Re:*mucks his hand* by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Actually the morality police is what brought us here. If online gaming was regulated to be fair and run by legit casinos who had a legal liability to create a fair and secure playing field this would be unlikely to happen and if it did there would be legal recourse. Since the morality police can't bring themselves to do that people play without the safety of regulation and a legal system and when companies harm their players through negligence our outright fraud the players are just screwed.

    7. Re:*mucks his hand* by Deagol · · Score: 2, Funny

      I see what you mean. With today's movies, it's always a gamble on whether you're throwing your money away seeing them. Take The Mummy 3 -- that's twenty bucks for the family of four and two hours of a Sunday afternoon I'll never recoup. I'd probably have lost more money that day and had more fun if I'd blown that coin in Wendover on the quarter slots.

    8. Re:*mucks his hand* by SpiderClan · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Have you ever played poker? With the right people, poker is fun. A movie costs 10$ and lasts 1.5 hours, and may or may not be fun. I can play a 5$ poker game with friends that lasts twice that long, is more entertaining than most movies and that allows for actual interaction between people, rather than staring at a screen. I could blow 50$ or more at the bar, or I could play poker all night for 20$ and not wake up smelling of smoke and beer.

      Playing poker because you think it will make you rich is probably retarded, playing at a casino is certainly reckless if you aren't an elite player, but playing poker doesn't in and of itself indicate naivety or stupidity. It's just a different form of entertainment and is reasonably priced as long as you're reasonable about it.

    9. Re:*mucks his hand* by timster · · Score: 1, Insightful

      Dude, seriously, have you ever even heard of poker? You don't seem to know much about the game.

      --
      I have seen the future, and it is inconvenient.
    10. Re:*mucks his hand* by Warshadow · · Score: 4, Interesting

      This is false. It can take awhile to catch it (as is seen in the AP/UB story), but statistical analysis will always show if weird things are happening. People who play seriously online use tools like Poker Tracker, Hold'em Manager, Poker Office, etc to keep track of their own play, wins/losses and whatnot.

      Someone noticed something odd about the win rate of a few players. They mentioned it to someone else; who looked and found the same thing. It kept going until the evidence was so great that it couldn't be a statistical anomaly.

      The real difficulty is in getting sites to admit when something shady has been going on. AP and UB denied that anything had happened for ages. Until the bad press started showing up and it became too much for them to ignore.

    11. Re:*mucks his hand* by daveime · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Yes, except those legal casinos with their legal liability are the same ones who will tell you "you are no longer welcome here", if you start winning too much, or card counting, or employing some other system to bend the odds in your favour.

      Online casinos can't scrutinize the players in the same way, and can barely tell the difference between a real player and a bot.

      I'm not saying what they did was in any way correct, but please don't compare them with the "fair, unbiased people of Las Vegas" - they both want to bleed you dry as quickly as possible.

    12. Re:*mucks his hand* by vux984 · · Score: 5, Insightful

      This is false. It can take awhile to catch it (as is seen in the AP/UB story),...

      So is it safe to play now? That's the question that needs answering. Or is there another scam going that hasn't been caught yet. You don't know.

      but statistical analysis will always show if weird things are happening.

      Eventually. But what good is that?

      People who play seriously online use tools like Poker Tracker, Hold'em Manager, Poker Office, etc to keep track of their own play, wins/losses and whatnot.

      Someone noticed something odd about the win rate of a few players. They mentioned it to someone else; who looked and found the same thing. It kept going until the evidence was so great that it couldn't be a statistical anomaly.

      And 4 years later they got caught.

      "A few players" should have retired their accounts, and spun up new ones every now and then.

      Or after 3 years, should have just plain retired and taken their millions to another country. How sure are you this didn't happen too with other teams? Or isn't happening right now?

      The real difficulty is in getting sites to admit when something shady has been going on. AP and UB denied that anything had happened for ages. Until the bad press started showing up and it became too much for them to ignore.

      So not only does it take YEARS to unmask systematic cheating, but the online houses aren't cooperating to solve the issue faster. That doesn't exactly install confidence...

      As I originally said, there is no way to reliably ensure cheating isn't taking place. Sure if it is taking place, one day, we'll know about it, maybe. But the smart criminals will have moved on before then... and meanwhile the new criminals will still be under the statistical radar.

    13. Re:*mucks his hand* by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

      That's only true when you're playing games that compete against the house.

      "Counting cards" occurs in Blackjack. In Blackjack, if you win, the house loses.

      That's not the case in Poker - in Poker the house wins whether you win or lose. They really don't give a darn.

    14. Re:*mucks his hand* by uniquename72 · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Online poker for real money shouldn't exist because its virtually impossible to ensure systematic cheating isn't taking place.

      So what? Then people don't have to play it. Why limit what consenting adults want to do in their free time?

      Hell, let's just ban the internet, since it's "virtually impossible" to keep it from being used to steal music and distribute kiddy porn.

    15. Re:*mucks his hand* by PopeRatzo · · Score: 2, Insightful

      So is it safe to play now?

      It was never "safe" to gamble online. That's the whole point.

      Gambling online is not unlike shooting heroin with dirty needles. You'll get high, but eventually something bad is going to happen.

      --
      You are welcome on my lawn.
    16. Re:*mucks his hand* by PopeRatzo · · Score: 2, Funny

      let's just ban the internet

      The RIAA and MPAA agree with you.

      --
      You are welcome on my lawn.
    17. Re:*mucks his hand* by PopeRatzo · · Score: 1

      Someone who is much better at poker than the people he's playing with will come out ahead in the long term

      Then he should be playing with people, not a mouse and keyboard.

      --
      You are welcome on my lawn.
    18. Re:*mucks his hand* by PopeRatzo · · Score: 1

      My neighbour rents 5 movies a month for 10 hours of entertainment, spending 25 dollars.

      That'll teach him to use TPB, like everyone else.

      --
      You are welcome on my lawn.
    19. Re:*mucks his hand* by PopeRatzo · · Score: 1

      With the right people, poker is fun.

      The emphasis being on "with people".

      --
      You are welcome on my lawn.
    20. Re:*mucks his hand* by HappyDrgn · · Score: 1

      Sometimes I may feel like playing some cards, but don't feel like driving down to the local casino. Other times I want to play with some of the guys I used to play home poker games with whom no longer live in the same state as me. These are a few of the good reasons I play poker online. I would not play for any serious cash, because let's face it, it's an offshore illegal gambling site... they would be fools not to skew odds in their favor somehow. Something I feel I have not been a victim of, however, as I've been playing using the free $5 I was given four years ago when I signed up.

    21. Re:*mucks his hand* by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You've never heard of the traditional shoulder-bite-wrist-hit gesture? It's easy: first you bite your shoulder, then hit your chest with your wrist (NOT HAND). Then, give me your money. Couldn't be simpler.

    22. Re:*mucks his hand* by vux984 · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Why limit what consenting adults want to do in their free time?

      Really? Did anyone consent to be cheated?

      Hell, let's just ban the internet, since it's "virtually impossible" to keep it from being used to steal music and distribute kiddy porn.

      False analogy and you know it.

    23. Re:*mucks his hand* by immcintosh · · Score: 2, Funny

      You would rather have the immoral police?

    24. Re:*mucks his hand* by immcintosh · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Keep in mind this is poker being played here. Are there casinos where poker is played against the house? Because if it's just the visitors playing each other as is usual for the game, the house's only real concern is precisely that the games stay as perfectly "on the level" as possible.

    25. Re:*mucks his hand* by immcintosh · · Score: 1

      You do realize that poker is one of the games where it's actually possible to win regularly (as in, statistically more than the people you're playing against) by being good, right?

    26. Re:*mucks his hand* by kesuki · · Score: 1

      "Someone who is much better at poker than the people he's playing with will come out ahead in the long term, assuming that nobody's cheating."

      but these were high stakes tables, with professional poker players and people who are good at playing poker, perhaps good enough to get interrogated in vegas for winning too much, while they search em for a computer or other cheating aids..

      if you're not good at poker, you shouldn't be playing at a high stakes table.. especially when the same sites have penny ante tables and some even have 'free' games with no wagers, just to attract more poker players.

      and i read the article on this about a week ago, when Kentucky took over numerous gambling site domain names by court order... i said it was foolish to gable on line, and the reason KY took away the domains was the sites were crooked and cheated players.. and someone linked to an article about how players were cheating gambling sites, only this new article exposed that the 'cheaters' were actually 'employees' fleecing their high stakes players.

      anyways, it's very hard to stop cheating in online gambling, because it's not legal to run gambling sites in the USA, so people host them offshore, then advertise to people in the states etc.

    27. Re:*mucks his hand* by Canberra+Bob · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Professional online players play orders of magnitude more hands than their bricks and mortar counterparts - thats why they do it. If you are better than those you play against in a casino game you get to play roughly 30 hands / hour against your opponents. If you multi-table online some players play in excess of 10 tables simultaneously at 60 hands / hour / table. Thats over 600 hands / hour online v 30 hands / hour in live play. Add in the lower rake online, no tipping etc and you can see how a good player can make far more online than in live play.

    28. Re:*mucks his hand* by Canberra+Bob · · Score: 3, Informative

      Professional poker players don't get 'interrogated in vegas'. The house does not lose against the players whether they win or lose, so does not care. It is quite common to have excellent players all sitting down at a table without the house batting an eyelid. Money in poker is made from other players, not the house.

    29. Re:*mucks his hand* by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Whatever. Bite your shoulder and hit your chest with your wrist. Then give me your money, retard.

      Translation: Oh shit, I realized I've lost the argument, time to break out the insults!

    30. Re:*mucks his hand* by macabresoul · · Score: 0, Flamebait

      You are an ignorant moron. Absolutely no substance whatsoever in your post.

    31. Re:*mucks his hand* by smegged · · Score: 4, Funny

      I could play poker all night for 20$ and not wake up smelling of smoke and beer.

      You're doing it wrong.

    32. Re:*mucks his hand* by cayenne8 · · Score: 1
      "and i read the article on this about a week ago, when Kentucky took over numerous gambling site domain names by court order... i said it was foolish to gable on line, and the reason KY took away the domains was the sites were crooked and cheated players.. and someone linked to an article about how players were cheating gambling sites, only this new article exposed that the 'cheaters' were actually 'employees' fleecing their high stakes players."

      The only reason KY was taking over domains....is really because they cannot legally make money from taxes on those site....let's face it, a state with the KY Derby, isn't against gambling really.

      I'm wondering if these actions by KY will add more fuel to the fire to the WTO fines on the US for 'discriminating' against offshore gambing when it does allow some on shore gambling online?

      Didn't some small place like Aruba or something win a settlement against the US for this in the WTO a short while back?

      --
      Light travels faster than sound. This is why some people appear bright until you hear them speak.........
    33. Re:*mucks his hand* by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The house always has one or two players every table.

    34. Re:*mucks his hand* by nedlohs · · Score: 1

      You can't ensure in a casino either...

      At least online you can play heads up only and hence remove the collusion form of cheating. You obviously can't avoid the AP style "cheater can see your cards" stuff - then again you do also bump into players who are better than you and lose to them - this just makes another one of them. As long as you have a small enough ego (and play heads up poker, yeah right!) and don't go back for more, that shouldn't make a significant dent in the win rate.

    35. Re:*mucks his hand* by Miseph · · Score: 1

      Well, no, but sometimes you're just stuck with what you get.

      --
      Try not to take me more seriously than I take myself.
    36. Re:*mucks his hand* by jamstar7 · · Score: 3, Funny

      Depends on what cup size they wear.

      --
      Understanding the scope of the problem is the first step on the path to true panic.
    37. Re:*mucks his hand* by jamstar7 · · Score: 1

      let's just ban the internet

      The RIAA and MPAA agree with you.

      No they don't, they just want paid for every single copy of every single media file ever transmitted over the internet, and figure a way to make the net bulletproof so they can continue to charge for every single copy of every single media file that will ever be sent over the net. And if they can get things situated so that if you want to use that media file again, they get paid again, then even better.

      --
      Understanding the scope of the problem is the first step on the path to true panic.
    38. Re:*mucks his hand* by vux984 · · Score: 1

      You can't ensure in a casino either...

      In that there can be no 100% guarantee, I agree.

      But there is very real confidence level difference. And the confidence level for honesty that is achieved in a real casino is orders of magnitude better than what is achieved by online gambling sites.

      Real casinos are regulated, financially audited, the equipment is tested and certified, and periodically re-tested. I concede that you'll never be certain that the system isn't rigged, but you can be reasonably certain it isn't.

      Online casinos are a whole different ballgame.

    39. Re:*mucks his hand* by rtb61 · · Score: 1

      The immoral police are already on location, they are the casino guards, making sure no matter what happens the casino always gets 'your' money. Whether on or off line, protecting the mug punters is their last worry, after all that is why they call them mug punters.

      Online gambling is far to easy to rig and, those who by their very nature are involved will always fall to temptation, they after all profit by exploiting other peoples weaknesses, whilst corruptly ensuring the odds favour them.

      It is only gambling when the punter and the casino share the same odds, the rest of the time as it is currently run, it is really is just legalised theft.

      --
      Chaos - everything, everywhere, everywhen
    40. Re:*mucks his hand* by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      And those other players won't want to keep playing if there's one person that's always winning. In which case it's in the best interests of the casino to prevent one player from scaring off other players.

    41. Re:*mucks his hand* by Canberra+Bob · · Score: 1

      Just like its in the best interest of the casino not to run tables like roulette as the losers will be chased away and never return to play anything else. Oh wait...

    42. Re:*mucks his hand* by cyb97 · · Score: 1

      there is an issue of legality and access to a brick and mortar game.

      Not all card players live in countries where it is perfectly legal to or feasible to play with people, which is why some players seek out other people through (note the use of through here) mouse and keyboard.

      Some players are also better at playing when hiding behind a computer than in real life (tells, patience, etc.)... your point isn't really valid. A lot of people do both, still doesn't change anything about the fact that good players will in the long run beat the pack.

    43. Re:*mucks his hand* by ta+bu+shi+da+yu · · Score: 1

      It might take a while to catch it, but it sure takes a while for editors to realise that this story was run last year:

      http://it.slashdot.org/article.pl?sid=07/10/20/0020213

      --
      XML is like violence. If it doesn't solve the problem, use more.
    44. Re:*mucks his hand* by PopeRatzo · · Score: 1

      That's fine. I like sports book gambling, and I do little 5's and dimes on games. I don't do it online because there is a social aspect to walking down to the local Italian social club and putting down a bet with someone who "went to school" with my great uncle. I play with 100 bucks I withdraw on Jan1 and if I lose it all, I'm done. I realize I'm paying 100 bucks a year for entertainment though. I don't expect to get rich from it.

      I won't bet on the Cubs, though. Fuck them.

      --
      You are welcome on my lawn.
    45. Re:*mucks his hand* by nedlohs · · Score: 1

      When playing poker all those regulations on the casino don't matter so much, since you aren't playing against the house (they make the same amount of money no matter who wins - more action benefits them, but that's hardly worth the risk of cheating).

      Other players cheating is the problem. It is *really* easy to collude online and in a casino. Heads up is the simple remedy against that and that is much more practical online.

      Of course online sites with huge backdoors might tilt it back to casinos, at least for high stakes.

      Playing against the house games at an online casino is obviously insane, I agree there.

    46. Re:*mucks his hand* by Huh? · · Score: 1
      or I could play poker all night for 20$ and not wake up smelling of smoke and beer.

      That sure sounds like a boring ass poker game to me.

    47. Re:*mucks his hand* by strjms72 · · Score: 1

      well this depends on the person... some people get addicted and become reckless

    48. Re:*mucks his hand* by truesaer · · Score: 1

      Exactly. A professional will sit down and take the bad players money while comforting them on their "bad luck."

    49. Re:*mucks his hand* by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I could play poker all night for 20$ and not wake up smelling of smoke and beer

      You're doing it wrong...

    50. Re:*mucks his hand* by Diakoneo · · Score: 1

      Offtopic
      If you're playing poker with friends and don't wake up smelling of beer and cigarettes, you're just not doing it right.

      Ontopic
      For those of you who play online poker, what reassurance do you get that there aren't four guys sitting in the same room trying to fleece a fifth out of his money? Do the online games somehow detect this?
      I remember being in Vegas many years ago. A guy walked up to my friend and I shuffling cards. His Stetson hat was worth than my car. He said "Boys, you want to play a little poker?" I'm not ashamed to say we ran away crying like little girls. That's kind of the way I view online poker.

      --
      "Well..here I am..." - Jubal Early
    51. Re:*mucks his hand* by FunkSoulBrother · · Score: 1

      A "dime" in sports book gambling is 10x your yearly bankroll. Do you ever find the Italians snickering at you when you place a dime bet?

    52. Re:*mucks his hand* by uniquename72 · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Did anyone consent to be cheated?

      They consented to play on using a format that cannot be secured. So the answer is "yes".

      False analogy and you know it.

      I don't know it, but thanks for setting me straight. Your incisive lack of explanation has shown me the light.

    53. Re:*mucks his hand* by KGIII · · Score: 1

      This borders on off-topic but I want to address the point about Kentucky.

      I do not like that Kentucky, a podunk judge, took domain names.

      I don't care the reason. I don't care the why. I don't like it, I don't like it one bit.

      If they were country domain names, say .us or something, then *maybe* I'd have been okay with it. These weren't (from the list that I read) and were all TLDs.

      The very idea that a judge in Kentucky can take a domain name from me or my client to uphold some sort of law is disgusting. No, I don't like it. I don't like it one bit.

      I can see having a server (if located in the United States or a country we have a treaty with) disconnect them. I can see issuing a warrant for their arrest. I can see all sorts of lawful means. But, as it is now, a single country pretty much controlling the internet via maintaining control of ICANN disturbs me greatly.

      I don't have a solution. Don't (please) say, "Put it in the hands of the U.N. and that will work." I'd go off on my opinions of the lack of action by the United Nations and their obviously skewed visions as a political group and not a reactionary group but that would take more time and more patience than I have at the moment.

      It is not often that I scream about things needing to be open. I, for one, don't care if the software I use is open or closed, free or paid, I care what works for me. However, this ICANN bullshit is, frankly, just that... It is bullshit. Any registrar taking a domain name from a customer because of pudunk judges without a clue needs to have their accredation ripped from them instantly.

      I could view it differently if they were ccTLDs and I would be unhappy about the choice but I'd not have a problem with the legality or the morals of the choice and the decision to uphold the judge's ruling by a registrar. A TLD is, well, top level. It goes beyond the scope of a single country and it goes way beyond the scope of a semi-retarded judge in fucking Kentucky.

      I'd say /rant but no, I'm still pissed off about this and I don't think that's about to change any time soon. *sighs* It is a good day to listen to Guns and Roses "Get in the Ring."

      --
      "So long and thanks for all the fish."
    54. Re:*mucks his hand* by toddestan · · Score: 1

      Vegas casinos thrive on tourists. Tourists aren't going to be there long enough to recognize some guy who's there all the time who wins a lot. And even if they do, there are plenty of other tables they can go to.

    55. Re:*mucks his hand* by vux984 · · Score: 2, Interesting

      They consented to play on using a format that cannot be secured. So the answer is "yes".

      You seem to be using 'consented' in a rather absurd manner.

      By that logic, if I get mugged on the way home today its because I consented to walk home along routes that I cannot ensure are secured.

      Of course, I could elect not to walk, but then I apparently consent to get carjacked because I consent to drive along routes I cannot ensure are secured...

      I'm sure they accept -some- risk that cheating is possible, but they certainly don't consent to be cheated, and I would further argue that most of them have absolutely no concept of the level of risk they are taking on, and that most of them would make different choices if they actually understood the risk.

      Seriously, if you think playing online amounts to consent to be cheated, then its no wonder you you thought your analogy wasn't false. Hell, by that twisted logic I perhaps it wasn't.

    56. Re:*mucks his hand* by KGIII · · Score: 1

      I'll take the off-topic hit if I need to.

      I have watched your posts for a while now, you post often. You just made my foe's list, read my signature. We, and I think I speak for *most* of us here are interested in statistics and math. There are a few types of poker where you're statistically able to win vast sums of money if you know what you're doing.

      I have a buddy who has a total of three books out on the subject. I like to tell people that, "I taught him everything he knows." The line is an obvious lie. I did, on the other hand, sit down and explain the math to him. Chances are very high that if you watch late night television on NBC you've seen him play at a professional level. Yes, professional. He does NOTHING other than play poker.

      Take all of your programming knowledge and apply it to the percentages of wining a hand. Never ever let go of the math and don't emote. If you do those two things AND are still willing to risk it then go for it. You're sitting on a pair of aces, you opened and pushed everyone else out pretty much, the only person playing still swapped a single card... Do you bet or do you fold when they open with a large bid? Are they bluffing?

      It is VERY much a matter of math and, after that, a matter of an educated guess.

      --
      "So long and thanks for all the fish."
    57. Re:*mucks his hand* by Canberra+Bob · · Score: 1

      Done this many times. If a player was particularly bad I would happily buy them a drink to make them feel better and console them on their horrendous run of "bad luck". Other times late at night / in the early hours we would actually stop the game if the drunk guy got up for a toilet break and wait for his return before resuming. The regs would always give filthy looks to anyone berating a bad player on their terrible play - you don't want them to leave, you want them to stay and have a good time losing their money and hopefully come back again in the future. All this talk of people not playing against obviously good players is a load of nonsense - spoken by people who have never actually played a live game at a casino in their life but consider themselves experts on the subject. I was always astounded at the number of terrible players who just kept returning and donating their money to the table.

  2. Let's comp the cheaters some room nights by davidwr · · Score: 5, Funny

    Illicit high rollers get free room and board for the next 5-10 years.

    --
    Knowledge is how to play a game, intelligence is how to win, wisdom is knowing what game to play.
  3. This is why by bugeaterr · · Score: 5, Funny

    I don't gamble.
    I invest my money in the stock market.

    1. Re:This is why by FooAtWFU · · Score: 4, Insightful
      And, assuming you're not going to be taking it out for another 10-40 years, it's a good, safe investment vehicle indeed. Buy stock now! (and in the future, regularly, with a fixed amount monthly, and take advantage of dollar cost averaging!)

      Whee.

      --
      The World Wide Web is dying. Soon, we shall have only the Internet.
    2. Re:This is why by savuporo · · Score: 1

      Yeah, you could do worse, like go vote on an election or something.

      --
      http://validator.w3.org/check?uri=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.slashdot.org Errors found while checking this document as HTML5!
    3. Re:This is why by TheRealMindChild · · Score: 4, Funny

      Well, it's rather brutal here. Right now we are advising all our clients to put everything they've got into canned food and shotguns.

      --

      "When life gives you lemons, don't make lemonade. Make life take the lemons back!" -- Cave Johnson
    4. Re:This is why by Hatta · · Score: 3, Insightful

      You kid, but the stock market is actually worse than gambling. At least when you gamble you know what your odds are.

      --
      Give me Classic Slashdot or give me death!
    5. Re:This is why by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Well, it's rather brutal here. Right now we are advising all our clients to put everything they've got into canned food and shotguns.

      If that's not a buy signal, I don't know what is.

      The best time to invest is when everyone else says, "Get out!"

    6. Re:This is why by onion2k · · Score: 1

      Unless people are cheating. Then you think you know the odds, but the reality is something else entirely.

    7. Re:This is why by jellomizer · · Score: 1

      But your odds on average are still better with the stock market. Yea you get down periods. But in the long term you see a general upward direction. For real gambling you will find a general downward direction. The stock market people usually want you to make money. Gambling wants to take your money. You are gambling if you are going for short term trading. But for long term your odds are quite good especially if you diversify across different areas. So any one area could die and you are still going strong.

      --
      If something is so important that you feel the need to post it on the internet... It probably isn't that important.
    8. Re:This is why by MightyYar · · Score: 1

      I thought I was the only one who remembered anything from Gremlins 2 (yes, there was a sequel).

      --
      W..w..W - Willy Waterloo washes Warren Wiggins who is washing Waldo Woo.
    9. Re:This is why by jandrese · · Score: 1

      There is only one way to make money gambling: Make sure you are "the house". In the long run, only the house wins.

      --

      I read the internet for the articles.
    10. Re:This is why by pbhj · · Score: 1

      But for long term your odds are quite good especially if you diversify across different areas. So any one area could die and you are still going strong.

      So if you have lots of money (to diversify) and won't need it at a particular time long term investments work. If you have a small pot and may need the money at a particular time (eg when you retire) then you're screwed and you may as well enjoy some poker, smoke big cigars and hope to die young.

    11. Re:This is why by Free+the+Cowards · · Score: 1

      That's kind of ridiculous. This latest spill is being touted as the End of the World, and yet the Dow Jones index fell a massive 7%. When was the last time you went to a casino, played all night, and lost only seven percent of your money?

      And yes, the longer-term decline has been quite a bit more but it still doesn't come anywhere close to the losses you can easily rack up in mere hours of gambling.

      --
      If you mod me Overrated, you are admitting that you have no penis.
    12. Re:This is why by megamerican · · Score: 1

      Well, it's rather brutal here. Right now we are advising all our clients to put everything they've got into canned food and shotguns.

      That's what Barton Biggs, former chief strategist at Morgan Stanley told everyone to do in his book earlier this year.

      Jan. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Barton Biggs has some offbeat advice for the rich: Insure yourself against war and disaster by buying a remote farm or ranch and stocking it with ``seed, fertilizer, canned food, wine, medicine, clothes, etc.''

      The ``etc.'' must mean guns.

      --
      If you have something that you dont want anyone to know, maybe you shouldnt be doing it in the first place -Eric Schmidt
    13. Re:This is why by jandrese · · Score: 1

      I'd be pretty pissed if my bank was taking my mortgage out to Vegas and losing it.

      --

      I read the internet for the articles.
    14. Re:This is why by ConceptJunkie · · Score: 1

      This article would seem to contradict you... frankly, any way you go at it you're likely to be cheated.

      If we ask nicely, maybe Congress will bail out all the losers in Las Vegas from the past few years as well. I mean it's not their fault if they placed bad bets... is it?

      --
      You are in a maze of twisty little passages, all alike.
    15. Re:This is why by merreborn · · Score: 1

      You kid, but the stock market is actually worse than gambling. At least when you gamble you know what your odds are.

      I always get a kick out of the slots that advertise their payout rate. "98.7% payout! Loosest slots in town!".

      Really? The sign clearly states you'll get less money out than you put in, and people find that encouraging?

      In regard to your point, at least with the stock market, you can make rational, informed decisions. For example, you can choose not to invest in companies that are heavily invested in junk mortgages.

    16. Re:This is why by gnick · · Score: 5, Interesting

      There is only one way to make money gambling: Make sure you are "the house". In the long run, only the house wins.

      Actually, I cleaned up last time I was in Vegas. My buddies did too - We developed a 'system'.

      1) Fill your pocket with nickels.
      2) Find a nickel-slot, sit down, and drop a nickel in.
      3) Wait for the cocktail-girl to walk by and spin the slot.
      4) Tell the girl, "Why yes, I would enjoy a Heineken on the house."
      5) Accept your beer and walk off to find another nickel-slot. (Alternatively sit at the same one, but that will require tipping if you want regular service.)

      Maybe you get your nickel back and maybe you don't. Who cares? It's a full night of nickel-Heineken. A buck goes a LONG way.

      --
      He's getting rather old, but he's a good mouse.
    17. Re:This is why by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      That should be okay. Better than gambling on real estate.

    18. Re:This is why by a+whoabot · · Score: 1

      Investing your money in stocks is a gamble -- stocks could go down. Keeping your money at home is a gamble -- could be stolen or there could be hyperinflation. Keeping your in the bank is a gamble -- bank could go bankrupt or there could be hyper-inflation. Trading your money for gold is a gamble -- price of gold could collapse with the opening of giant mines or some other reason. Et cetera.

      It's impossible to not gamble when you have money.

    19. Re:This is why by Mr2001 · · Score: 1

      That's true in games where you play against the house, but not in poker.

      --
      Visual IRC: Fast. Powerful. Free.
    20. Re:This is why by arth1 · · Score: 2, Interesting

      And, assuming you're not going to be taking it out for another 10-40 years, it's a good, safe investment vehicle indeed. Buy stock now! (and in the future, regularly, with a fixed amount monthly, and take advantage of dollar cost averaging!)

      Assuming, of course, that the companies you've invested in don't fold with a negative value. From that, there's no recovery.

      Also, keep in mind that the stock market depends on an influx of fresh money from the bottom. It's a legalized pyramid scheme, where those who buy new stock infuse the market with the money that established investors can cash out. Once the supply of fresh money stops, the stock value can only rise artificially. So sooner or later a stock market has to crash. It may be in ten years, or in two hundred, but any system that's based on continued growth will collapse.

      In short (no pun intended), your 10-40 year investment is still a gamble. You're just trading a large risk of losing some money for a smaller risk of losing a lot of money.

    21. Re:This is why by swb · · Score: 1

      My Vegas experience isn't extensive, but in a long weekend of staying at the Bellagio I didn't get a single comped drink, and I spent a lot of time at the slots (I only lost $20 all weekend). At the Hilton, I did get a couple of comped drinks (Absolute & Tonic!) but that was over another long weekend of fairly extensive slot play, too.

      I sometimes wonder if comped drinks weren't for people doing real wagering at the tables or perhaps something from the 80s and earlier.

    22. Re:This is why by TubeSteak · · Score: 1

      And, assuming you're not going to be taking it out for another 10-40 years, it's a good, safe investment vehicle indeed.

      Unless of course the market tanks right around the time you plan to retire.
      Example: the year 2008

      You're still gambling, just on a longer timescale.

      --
      [Fuck Beta]
      o0t!
    23. Re:This is why by jandrese · · Score: 1

      In Poker all players put X amount of money in, and in the end leave with X - Y money, where Y is the cut. Unless you have some system to guarantee that your opponents will lose, only the house wins in the end.

      --

      I read the internet for the articles.
    24. Re:This is why by spun · · Score: 4, Interesting

      My wife doubted we would get comped at the nickel slots. Not only do you get comped, the drinks are stronger than the ones you pay for at the bar! Add to this the cheap rooms and cheap food, and you've saved enough to pay for some expensive entertainment while still vacationing on a budget.

      --
      - None can love freedom heartily, but good men; the rest love not freedom, but license. -- John Milton
    25. Re:This is why by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Tell that to those who have saved up their pension for 10-40 years on the stock market, and retire today.

    26. Re:This is why by Hoi+Polloi · · Score: 1

      With gambling you just lose some money but if the whole market collapses you'll have bigger problems to worry about than your 401K, like food, shelter, hordes of tunnel dwellers coming out at night, etc.

      --
      It is by the juice of the coffee bean that thoughts acquire speed, the teeth acquire stains. The stains become a warning
    27. Re:This is why by AndersOSU · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Assuming, of course, that the companies you've invested in don't fold with a negative value. From that, there's no recovery.

      Don't buy individual stocks

      It's a legalized pyramid scheme

      The economy is not a zero sum game

      10-40 year investment is still a gamble

      Yes it is, but as long as in the long term production is higher in the future than it is now, your (sufficiently diversified) investment will grant returns.

    28. Re:This is why by Silicon+Jedi · · Score: 1

      I remember

    29. Re:This is why by gnick · · Score: 1

      We did pretty much the whole strip and had excellent success with the comped drinks. This was ~4 years ago. Perhaps you just weren't obnoxious enough. 'spun' mentions below that the drinks were mixed rich - I wouldn't know but can testify that the bottled beer wasn't watered.

      If our experiences were so much different regarding the odds of receiving free beer, perhaps there's more skill involved with coming out ahead at the slot machines than I previously thought. My buddies and I are apparently naturals.

      --
      He's getting rather old, but he's a good mouse.
    30. Re:This is why by jonadab · · Score: 1

      > You kid, but the stock market is actually worse than gambling.

      Only in the short term (less than ten years), or if your portfolio has no diversity.

      > At least when you gamble you know what your odds are.

      Only if you can know that nobody's cheating. If there's any cheating going on, that plays havoc with the odds.

      --
      Cut that out, or I will ship you to Norilsk in a box.
    31. Re:This is why by Hoi+Polloi · · Score: 5, Funny

      But then you find out that all the toilets have locks on them charging $10, or even worse, they are slot machines too. "Come on cherries! I need to pee!"

      --
      It is by the juice of the coffee bean that thoughts acquire speed, the teeth acquire stains. The stains become a warning
    32. Re:This is why by DeathMagnetic · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Unless you have some system to guarantee that your opponents will lose...

      Umm yeah, it's called being a more skillful player. The variance in skill level of poker players is easily large enough for a significant percentage of them to win enough to overcome the house's cut. Of course the house is always the biggest winner, and the average player will be a loser, but it's naive to say that only the house wins.

    33. Re:This is why by MBGMorden · · Score: 1

      Unless you're playing in a local group and there is no house cut (because there is no "house").

      This is normally how I gamble (though we normally play "Gut" or variants thereof like "357" rather than Poker). Nothing too high stakes (the per hand values on my games rarely break $25, and I've never seen one exceed $300), but still a bit of fun. There is no house cut so some are walking away with more, and some with less.

      The trick I've found is to stay sober amongst drunk gamblers. Drunk guys start to make stupid decisions. And what's worse, they'll continue to repeat those stupid decisions with a frequency such that you win more often against the hands they keep than you lose. So overall, you will see a net profit. That profit will vary depending on how risky you want to be, but 90% of of them time I'll walk away from the table with more money than I started with (even if sometimes it might only be $10-15 more :)).

      --
      "People who think they know everything are very annoying to those of us who do."-Mark Twain
    34. Re:This is why by jandrese · · Score: 1

      It may be hard to get invited back to Poker night if you're that stuck up guy who won't even have a beer because it'll mess up his game though.

      --

      I read the internet for the articles.
    35. Re:This is why by ConceptJunkie · · Score: 1

      Yeah, you could do worse, like go vote on an election or something.

      It's like a slot machine where the wheels only have lemons on them.

      (And the people in Chicago are using slugs)

      --
      You are in a maze of twisty little passages, all alike.
    36. Re:This is why by billcopc · · Score: 2, Funny

      Amen! That's why I spend all my money on hookers and booze!

      --
      -Billco, Fnarg.com
    37. Re:This is why by Xtifr · · Score: 4, Insightful

      That's pretty rude. Not to the casinos (I could care less about them), but to the poor, hardworking "cocktail girls". I do more-or-less the same thing when I'm in Vegas, but I make a point to tip the waitrons well. This means: they'll happily keep bringing the drinks; they'll carefully not notice how few nickels you're putting in the slots (as long as you keep up a minimal pretense); and you're still getting drinks at bargain-basement prices.

      "Do what you wanna--do what you will;
      Just don't mess up your neighbor's thrill--
      and when you pay the bill, kindly leave a little tip
      to help the next poor sucker on his one-way trip."
                          -- Frank Zappa, "The Meek Shall Inherit Nothing"

    38. Re:This is why by Missing_dc · · Score: 2, Funny

      Did your wife mind the "expensive entertainment" you bought?

      It is (legal after all in) Vegas/Nevada!

      --
      How amazed would you be to suddenly find that you just forgot what I wrote and you needed to reread my post.... again.
    39. Re:This is why by JesseMcDonald · · Score: 1

      It's impossible to not gamble when you have money.

      Or anything else. Life is full of risk; only the dead can be absolutely certain of their future.

      Some behaviors and circumstances are riskier than others, of course. In my opinion, dealing directly in the stock market without the rare entrepreneurial ability to pick successful companies is closer to gambling than it is to investing, and so far as I can see even most fund managers don't have that ability.

      In an inflationary economy pure saving is a guaranteed loss. Inexpert "investments" -- the long-term "dollar cost averaging" others have mentioned -- may, at best, keep your assets from depreciating quite as quickly in real terms (purchasing power), but only at the expense of a great deal of unwanted risk.

      The safe answer for retirement finds used to be time accounts -- CDs and the like -- but the general policy of driving interest rates into the ground put an end to that. They wanted to drive people to "invest" in the market, whether or not said individuals had the ability to do so wisely; well, this is the result.

      --
      "The state is that great fiction by which everyone tries to live at the expense of everyone else." - Bastiat
    40. Re:This is why by Missing_dc · · Score: 1

      It may be hard to get invited back to Poker night if you're that stuck up guy who won't even have a beer because it'll mess up his game though.

      That's right!! So get so comfortable with the statistics that even wildly drunk (and loud) you play well, so all the "sobers" who had 1 beer who think they know the odds better bet wildly against you thinking it is beginners luck that you are winning.

      It sounds risky, but it has worked many times for me in local bar tourneys.

      --
      How amazed would you be to suddenly find that you just forgot what I wrote and you needed to reread my post.... again.
    41. Re:This is why by g0bshiTe · · Score: 1

      1999 is that you?

      --
      I am Bennett Haselton! I am Bennett Haselton!
    42. Re:This is why by nabsltd · · Score: 1

      I've been in various casinos around the country and never play very big money, and I could have easily become an alcoholic on just those vists.

      I don't play slots, but have many friends that do, and all get free drinks without even asking...basically a waitress comes up and asks "what do you want?", and the only money the waitress gets is a tip, regardless of the drink.

    43. Re:This is why by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Insightful

      This is not true. Companies make money, or at least hopefully the ones you are buying are. This increases the value of the company, so people would like to buy an ownership stake in a company so that they will either receive dividends or the value of the company, and hence their shares, will increase.

      Shareholders are not on the line for a company's debts- shares can not go below zero dollars. I don't think you have a firm grasp on what the stock market's function is, I suggest for your own good that you learn- it is not a casino, it is a way for a company to raise capital. I recommend "A Random Walk Down Wall Street" which explains the purpose and function of the stock market very clearly.

    44. Re:This is why by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Informative

      You're speaking nonsense. The value of a stock goes up because the company gets bigger and better, not because more suckers were found to pay in to the ponzy scheme.

    45. Re:This is why by spun · · Score: 2, Informative

      Prostitution is not legal in Vegas, though it is in the rest of the state. Our expensive entertainment consisted of rides, Cirque de Soleil, Madam Tussaud, video games, and more rides (none of which involved any other women, sadly)

      --
      - None can love freedom heartily, but good men; the rest love not freedom, but license. -- John Milton
    46. Re:This is why by Tawnos · · Score: 2, Insightful

      You make the same mistake that many do: the stock market is not about growth. Long-term, the value in the stock market comes from dividends paid, not growth. Else, the stock market would simply be a game of hot potato where the last person holding the stock loses.

      Tech stocks often don't give dividends while they're in the growth phase, as the price is expected to increase and the profits that would otherwise be dividends are needed for funding company growth. However, these stocks must eventually produce dividends, else they have no real value.

      Personally, I'm still waiting for Cisco to admit to itself it's no longer a growth-based tech company and to start paying dividends.

    47. Re:This is why by SpiderClan · · Score: 1

      Owning stock doesn't have to be the same as playing the stock market. You know that, right? Each stock is, in fact, a fractional ownership in the company and companies rely on the capital that comes in from selling shares. Of course there are speculators and day traders who are mostly just gamblers, but without the stock market we would be without many of the companies we take for granted today.

    48. Re:This is why by Free+the+Cowards · · Score: 1

      What exactly is dishonest about investing in the stock market? I happen to have a surplus of money (and so should you, so that a sudden disaster doesn't wipe you out) and that money does a lot more good both to me and to other people sitting on the stock market than it would hiding under my mattress.

      --
      If you mod me Overrated, you are admitting that you have no penis.
    49. Re:This is why by j79zlr · · Score: 3, Informative

      When you retire you don't withdraw all of your assets, at least you are not supposed to. If they have been saving for 40 years, they are way, way, way up. The DOW is down 25% from its peak of last October, but still up over 40% from 10 years ago, 400% from 20 years ago and 1200% from 30 years ago. By dollar cost averaging and reinvesting dividends, you would be up pretty good. Also, by retirement age, you should be in a good mix of approximately 50% bonds which actually benefit from a bear market. The same rate of return can not be had with gold or real estate.

      --
      I'm not not licking toads.
    50. Re:This is why by credd144az · · Score: 1

      I don't

    51. Re:This is why by gnick · · Score: 1

      Agreed - Very rude. I don't actually skip out on tipping, it's just funnier when I lay out the 'system' in full cheap-skate mode. Actually, sticking for a while in one place and tipping reasonably will get you better service than hopping around a lot. Especially if you're sitting there in a nice compact little group of guys all tipping in exchange for comped drinks - 5 guys tipping $1 60% of the time is $3 per 4-minute tray trip. That seems OK to me.

      --
      He's getting rather old, but he's a good mouse.
    52. Re:This is why by BigRob7 · · Score: 1

      "Also, keep in mind that the stock market depends on an influx of fresh money from the bottom. It's a legalized pyramid scheme,"

      I think he meant to say social security instead of stock market.

    53. Re:This is why by sbma44 · · Score: 1

      Mod parent down. He clearly doesn't understand that the idea of capitalism is to produce new wealth via the use of invested capital. As a sibling poster pointed out, the economy is not zero sum.

      I'm hardly a market triumphalist -- personally, I think we ought to be working toward a socialist democracy modeled on Northern European nations like Denmark -- but you need to be at least a *little* informed before you start making radical critiques of the market system.

    54. Re:This is why by lgw · · Score: 1

      This advice is right on target. Buying the common stock of individual companies is always speculation. That's what common stock is *for*. Buying the market in aggregate is different (long term). You benefit from the overall economic growth of the country, which at an average of 4% GDP growth a year (inflation adjusted) since WWII is quite nice, and it's no longer a zero-sumn game.

      And stocks in aggregate give a better return long-term than bonds, real-estate, cash, gold, or anything else really because they are risky individually, and so have to give a better return than bonds etc to attract investors. This difference has been pretty small since the 60s, but common stock still gives a slightly better long-term return than individually safer investments.

      However, most individual investors woefully underperform the market, becasue they imagine themselves more clever than other investors, or follow some herd, and end up buying more when prices are high and the herd is enthusiastic, and selling more when prices are low and stocks don't seem smart.

      Most mutual funds underperform the indexes. Most hedge funds underperform the mutual fund average. Most indivual investors do worse still. The secret to market success: stop trying to be clever, and just buy and hold the broad market, with a mix of stocks and bonds, and don't change your pattern based on market activity.

      I am not a financial advisor, but the policy of buying the broad stock market, keeping your age as a % in bonds, and not changing the pattern when the market is volatile, is recommended by many who are.

      --
      Socialism: a lie told by totalitarians and believed by fools.
    55. Re:This is why by MBGMorden · · Score: 1

      Except that I'm the guy who doesn't drink ANYWAYS, regardless of if Poker night is taking place, so it's not really an issue. I've been playing with the same group for nearly 10 years now.

      --
      "People who think they know everything are very annoying to those of us who do."-Mark Twain
    56. Re:This is why by Molochi · · Score: 1

      I always tip like I'm paying, but it's still a cheap haze.

      I used to prefer the $5 Blackjack tables at the Mirage(RIP), the girls would come around enough to keep a good buzz on, and I could keep up with the cards enough to break even. My last trip out was CES 2007 at the Luxor. I spent my last couple of days at the pokerbar. Good comps and lots of women.

      --
      "The Adobe Updater must update itself before it can check for updates. Would you like to update the Adobe Updater now?"
    57. Re:This is why by AmonRa1979 · · Score: 1

      Seriously, when was the last time you went out with 7% or more of your assets and lost it all? There is a difference between going out gambling with $100 and losing it all and losing 7% of a large investment. Like someone else pointed out earlier in the thread, at least with gambling you know the odds and you have a chance to tell if there are better players than you at the poker table. With stocks, you never see the CEO who's about to run with the money.

      In the end, I would still trust a lot of investment opportunities over gambling (poker, never play table games where you play against the house's hand), but perhaps just maybe I can have more fun gambling a very small portion of my income away than doing various other activities that money can buy. ...and if you're good at reading people, then you have a good chance of coming out with a profit.

    58. Re:This is why by Eternauta3k · · Score: 1

      only the dead can be absolutely certain of their future

      Don't be so sure

      --
      Yeah. Would you choose a neurosurgeon who pokes around people's brains in his spare time? I wouldn't.
    59. Re:This is why by Anonymous+Brave+Guy · · Score: 4, Interesting

      The economy is not a zero sum game

      Perhaps not, but it's a lot closer than the markets sometimes seem to think. There are all kinds of clever economic theories, but ultimately, there are only so many goods produced and useful services provided in the world, no matter how much money gets printed to pay for them, and the efficiency of production and service provision only increases so fast over time. As we've all been finding out rather painfully in recent weeks, economies that ignore this reality, based on funny money that is not backed by anything of any real value, are liable to collapse when someone knocks the bottom card out of the house.

      For the first time ever, my investment portfolio has actually tipped over into an overall negative return recently. Several years of gains from investing in decent companies trading in useful markets with sound fundamentals, carefully avoiding madness like the dot-com bubble and the financial services industry that caused the current mess, have been wiped out in a matter of weeks. Sure, the market will recover in time, and if you're lucky enough to have a substantial sum of spare cash lying around to put in now then there are probably long-term bargains to be had. And sure, I know that objectively, given the various tax implications in my country, I am still better to be in my current position that I would have been if I had put the money in a bank and then bought in for the prices available now.

      Even so, this makes it all too clear that stock market investing really is a long-term prospect: even something like a five-year plan, which is what a lot of the pros used to quote as a sensible minimum investment period, has brought little safety at all in the past 10–15 years. And how many people really have enough money that they can invest for 10+ years without wanting to spend any of it, yet still have little enough money that the return on investment matters? Maybe once you own the house and your kids are grown up, if you want to save for your retirement...?

      --
      If you disagree, post your argument. (-1, Overrated) isn't your personal censorship tool for views you don't like.
    60. Re:This is why by dcollins · · Score: 1

      "... and take advantage of dollar cost averaging!"

      From what I can tell, dollar-cost-averaging is a myth. I've never seen an example presented where it benefits the investor, unless you expect stocks to go _down_ over the long-term.

      Personally, my best theory is that investment companies like it because it makes _their_ cash flow more predictable month-to-month.

      --
      We know where leadership by an anti-intellectual "strongman" who scapegoats minorities and likes boisterous rallies goes
    61. Re:This is why by arth1 · · Score: 1

      Mod parent down. He clearly doesn't understand that the idea of capitalism is to produce new wealth via the use of invested capital. As a sibling poster pointed out, the economy is not zero sum.

      ... as long as it grows.

      However, the bigger system doesn't allow for an open-ended growth forever, which is what market capitalists refuse to admit.

      And, once there are no new fresh capital to buy stock with, the stocks can't go up in price. After an IPO, stock price increase is due to bidding driving it up, and is controlled by the buyers only.

      Once there is no growth any more, any capital gains realization will have to be from dividends. Companies produce the wealth. Dividends is just a distribution mechanism. The stock market itself doesn't produce anything, it just funnels money into the companies at the IPO, and from the companies after that. After the initial investment, it is of no real value to the company itself.

    62. Re:This is why by PopeRatzo · · Score: 1

      Yes it is, but as long as in the long term production is higher in the future than it is now, your (sufficiently diversified) investment will grant returns.

      Have you ever heard of "boundary conditions"?

      --
      You are welcome on my lawn.
    63. Re:This is why by Free+the+Cowards · · Score: 1

      Seriously, when was the last time you went out with 7% or more of your assets and lost it all? There is a difference between going out gambling with $100 and losing it all and losing 7% of a large investment.

      Nonsensical. The claim was not that gambling with small sums was better than investing with large sums. The claim was that the stock market was worse than gambling, period.

      Like someone else pointed out earlier in the thread, at least with gambling you know the odds and you have a chance to tell if there are better players than you at the poker table. With stocks, you never see the CEO who's about to run with the money.

      If you didn't see the current crisis coming at least a year ahead then you're just as much of a fool as someone who thinks he can beat the house at blackjack because he "has a system".

      In the end, I would still trust a lot of investment opportunities over gambling (poker, never play table games where you play against the house's hand), but perhaps just maybe I can have more fun gambling a very small portion of my income away than doing various other activities that money can buy. ...and if you're good at reading people, then you have a good chance of coming out with a profit.

      Hey, I have no problem with people who gamble small amounts because they find it entertaining. Certainly I spend plenty of money on entertainment. But that's a distant thing from saying that gambling in a casino is "better".

      --
      If you mod me Overrated, you are admitting that you have no penis.
    64. Re:This is why by SL+Baur · · Score: 1

      I always get a kick out of the slots that advertise their payout rate. "98.7% payout! Loosest slots in town!".

      Really? The sign clearly states you'll get less money out than you put in, and people find that encouraging?

      It's statistics. You win some, you lose some. If you're lucky, you win more than you lose and vice versa. The smaller house percentage means it will take a bit longer before all the money you brought with you is inside the machine. Or, if you really have discipline you get lucky and walk away with more than you started with.

      Blackjack, like Poker, is a game of skill. In a single deck fair game, the card counting player actually has a slight advantage over the house.

      I've lost too much money from Pachinko addiction (not mine, but an ex-GF's) to ever willingly set foot in a casino again, but the last time I went to Vegas in the early 1990's it was easy to get comped drinks. I'd be very surprised if they had stopped that practice. Drunk players tend to be stupid players and like the unspeakably evil US$100 bill dispensing ATMs in Vegas casinos comped drinks should be a net win for the house. Speaking, of course, from experience ...

      And for the jerks criticising the players who were cheated in this scandal, if you don't like the game, don't play. It's really none of your business.

    65. Re:This is why by davidlowie · · Score: 1

      Slot machines don't involve coins anymore. You put in bills, and take out barcoded receipts to a recorded sound of coins falling. But back to the issue at hand, I got comped at penny slots this last weekend. Makes the free drinks cheaper than the $200 vodka tonic I got at the blackjack table.

    66. Re:This is why by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I kind of wish more people were ahead of the game.

      If you put in X and there are R players, and you only have a 1/R chance of winning a hand, then you'll earn X-Y back and have a net profit of -Y.

      However, if you manage to increase your luck by playing with skill (knowing the odds, read your opponents), this changes.

      Say you have a slight edge over each opponent, and in total you have a 2/R chance of winning a hand. Now you have 2X-Y and have a net profit of X-Y.

      For the record, Casinos rake around 5% at the very most. Keep your contribution to the pot (X) above 5% in this case, and you should profit.

    67. Re:This is why by arth1 · · Score: 1

      You make the same mistake that many do: the stock market is not about growth. Long-term, the value in the stock market comes from dividends paid, not growth. Else, the stock market would simply be a game of hot potato where the last person holding the stock loses.

      You seem to make the same mistake that many do: The money paying for the dividends are created by the companies, not by the stock market. Having a company traded doesn't add any value after the IPO.
      Yes, it is a hot potato, which the last few months has shown. Nothing lasts forever. Someone will hold the stock by the time a company inevitably goes under, whether it's in the year 2008 or 2132.

      Diversifying is sound advice, but you're still playing on there being an overall growth. That's not a certainty, although it's considered very likely in medium term timeframes. What is a certainty is that entropy will eventually catch up and the overall growth will cease.

    68. Re:This is why by Shivetya · · Score: 1

      No, we know the odds on the stock market. The problem is you cannot treat it as a short term game. If you must put it into game terms then portray it as the longest MMORPG you will ever participate in. Its called life.

      I know that current events put a lot of doubt on the market but the primary cause of our problems are also prolonging the correction, interference by government. Now before you jump on the deregulation caused it band wagon go back and research the events and those who blocked attempts to stop the primary problem, mortgage fraud. This traces a bit back but in the last few years many attempts were meant to reign in the fraud at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The problem of course is politics. Certain people were using the system, abusing it, to attempt some social engineering to keep their power. By preventing proper oversight these two agencies with the implied backing of the Federal Government maintained a system no truly private enterprise could get away with. There are many checks and balances (read laws and true shareholder influence) that did not exist with these two organizations because certain government officials were gaming the system.

      With the rug pulled out from under them the house of cards fell. The problem now is that instead of allowing the system to correct itself some stupid and short sighted attempts to selectively shore up the system are being sought by people in both parties. The problem with politicians is that when they cause problems they cannot accept blame, the two party system works to their advantage in that they always have someone to blame. This leads to the second problem which is where the same ignorant people think they can fix it. Meanwhile the public is kept in the dark, distracted, and such, while people in the know are again allowed to game the system for their advantage. Whether it is more power through more government intervention to being allowed to manipulate fears in the market to score some very large buyouts for a pittance it all adds up to the same thing, Washington power brokers who do not answer to the public are playing games with our money and we have no say.

      The market is correcting itself, this is not without pain. The best thing to do is write your Congressman and demand they don't bail out corporations built on bad securities (read:mortgages) and prevent the Federal Government from ever providing either implicit or under the table support for organizations based on fraud; in other words no more implied bail outs. Whats holding the fix up is that too many of these money power houses are holding back from stepping in to see how big of a pie they can get in the form of cheap loans directly from the government.

      What makes it all worse, the problems in the market are just a shadow of the shell game the Federal Government has constructed and ignored (read they deflect our attention at every step) with the real problem of funding social programs whose growth is beyond any sustainable tax system. To put it bluntly they are running on borrowed time awaiting a miracle to fix the problem, or better yet hoping to dump it on some other future Congress/Administrations shoulders.

      The odds won't be back in our favor until regulation also exists to prevent undue interference by the government. All must play by the same rules which was not the case with the mortgage giants.

      Go look at how many bills were submitted in the last eight years attempting to reign them in, to put true oversight on them, then go look at who blocked it. Those are the real culprits here. They also happen to be the ones screaming the loudest to redirect the blame. And we will buy it.

      --
      * Winners compare their achievements to their goals, losers compare theirs to that of others.
    69. Re:This is why by AndersOSU · · Score: 2, Insightful

      what of it?

      Are you predicting the end of economic growth? If so we've got more serious problems to worry about than the Dow.

      If if and when we run against a boundary condition it's not going to matter whether you've invested in gold, stocks, or stuffed your mattress with cash.

    70. Re:This is why by arth1 · · Score: 1

      You're speaking nonsense. The value of a stock goes up because the company gets bigger [...]

      And this is not relying on "growth" how?

    71. Re:This is why by lgw · · Score: 5, Informative

      There are all kinds of clever economic theories, but ultimately, there are only so many goods produced and useful services provided in the world, no matter how much money gets printed to pay for them, and the efficiency of production and service provision only increases so fast over time.

      This is true. However, the increase in effeciency due to technological advancement *is* the huge driver that makes investment work. That growth is significant over time (measured in inflation-adjuested money, as that's what's interesting). European economies have grown a solid 2% a year post-WWII. The American economy has grown a terriffic 4% a year. And a bit less than that 4% gets paid to bondholders, and a bit more to (common) stockholders, so the stock market is far from a zero-sum game.

      Even so, this makes it all too clear that stock market investing really is a long-term prospect: even something like a five-year plan, which is what a lot of the pros used to quote as a sensible minimum investment period, has brought little safety at all in the past 10-15 years. And how many people really have enough money that they can invest for 10+ years without wanting to spend any of it, yet still have little enough money that the return on investment matters?

      Yes, it's the 30-40 year time horizon that matters. Everyone can invest on that scale: just live below your means, not above them. Accumulate wealth, not debt. It's as easy (as hard) as having a little self-discipline. If you need your money back in 5 years, it should really be in (short term, non-corporate) bonds. Shorter than that and you want to stick to FDIC-insured accounts and treasuries.

      Investing so that you can retire comfortably at 55 instead of starving on social security at 65 is "just" a matter of saving a significant percentage of your take-home pay every month, to an account that you won't draw from even if your 'fridge breaks and your car's in the shop, and you get laid off. That means you have to save even more to give yourself that padding. All of which is easy (for a salaried professional) if you stop trying to impress your friends and neighbors with your purchases, realize you dont need the latest tech toys, and even (gasp) realize that maybe you should be renting, not buying a house, during the collapse of the biggest housing bubble ever.

      --
      Socialism: a lie told by totalitarians and believed by fools.
    72. Re:This is why by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      total stock market return = speculative returns + dividends + earnings growth (corporate earnings grow at about the same pace as our economy)

      Source: John Bogle
      http://www.vanguard.com/bogle_site/sp20020612s.html

    73. Re:This is why by AmonRa1979 · · Score: 1

      I honestly don't see where you are coming from. Those who pull out early in the stock market are related to those who win at poker. They see something that the others don't and then rely on suckers to buy their soon to be worthless stock. In the end, both are forms of gambling. You take risk based on available information. Again, if you lose all your assets in either stock or gambling, then you have a problem. The way I see it, though, is that in poker there is a much lower chance of 'everyone' at the table losing big.

      And as for your 'nonsensical' comment, well how concise of you. I wasn't pointing out the merit in the previous posters comment, I was pointing out the flaw in yours. In both cases, if one person consistently loses big then they have a problem, either with addiction or with poor judgment. However, in poker, you will never see everyone lose 7% of the money they have at the table in a couple of hands. And for those who think buying stocks can't be addictive, take a look at people who check their stock prices every 5 minutes... or how about people who 'play' the market and buy and sell on a minute by minute basis.

    74. Re:This is why by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Did that on the penny slots too, lol.

    75. Re:This is why by Mr2001 · · Score: 1

      In Poker all players put X amount of money in, and in the end leave with X - Y money, where Y is the cut. Unless you have some system to guarantee that your opponents will lose, only the house wins in the end.

      Poker isn't a team game. It's not "all players" vs. the house; it's a bunch of individuals playing against each other, with the house skimming a few percent out of every pot.

      Taken as a whole, yes, all the players at the table will walk away with less money than they started with. But as an individual, if you're one of the better players at the table, you're likely to walk away with more than you started with. Bad players will lose a lot of money, but the majority of that money goes to the good players, not the house.

      Being a good player doesn't guarantee that your opponents will lose: there's still an element of chance. But it does tip the odds in your favor. A good poker player can make a consistent profit by being on the right side of those odds, just like the house does in games like blackjack.

      --
      Visual IRC: Fast. Powerful. Free.
    76. Re:This is why by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I think I see the problem with that logic. By your reasoning, the best time to invest ever would have been October 29, 1929.

    77. Re:This is why by SimonBelmont · · Score: 1

      Shareholders are not on the line for a company's debts- shares can not go below zero dollars. I don't think you have a firm grasp on what the stock market's function is, I suggest for your own good that you learn- it is not a casino, it is a way for a company to raise capital.

      If I go into a casino and place a bet, I might get a little extra, but I cannot lose more than I put down. I am not on the line for the casino's debts.

      There are different rules surrounding stock, but you are still gambling that a particular business plan will work.

    78. Re:This is why by Canberra+Bob · · Score: 1

      Correct - if you are counting every player then the sum of money made by all players is negative. If poker were a purely random game with no skill then it would be impossible to come out ahead. However poker is also a game of skill. A good player can achieve positive returns even taking the rake into account. I know as I played for a living for a few months between jobs - as with anything else in life you have to be better than your competition. It takes shitloads of practice and study and to be honest playing for a living is much harder than a 'normal' job (eg your 'work' hours are generally 4pm - 4am, 6 days / week) but I must admit I miss it and it is certainly very achievable.

    79. Re:This is why by Wowlapalooza · · Score: 1

      Prostitution is not legal in Vegas, though it is in the rest of the state.

      I'm no expert in such things (really!), but my understanding was that only certain low-population counties in Nevada were eligible to legalize prostitution, and even then, it would only be legalized if the county voted to make it so. The state legislature was very mindful of the social risks of legal prostitution and sought to minimize them. Refreshingly enlightened, IMO.

      In any case, even if I'm off on some of the details, I don't think it's as simple as "legal everywhere in Nevada except Vegas"...

    80. Re:This is why by darkmeridian · · Score: 1

      1. Buy low cost, no load index funds. Warren Buffet says so.
      2. The economy as a whole will continue to expand. Index funds track that growth over time.
      3. A 10-40 year investment is a gamble, but inflation is a guaranteed loss over that time.

      --
      A NYC lawyer blogs. http://www.chuangblog.com/
    81. Re:This is why by failedlogic · · Score: 1

      The reason why the large tray never fills with coins is that there is another purpose. Its to save you $10. ;)

    82. Re:This is why by Free+the+Cowards · · Score: 1

      Wikipedia claims that the house's take in poker is 5-10% per hand. That's a guaranteed loss to everyone sitting at the table. You'll not find anything like that in the stock market.

      With gambling, you're guaranteed a net loss when examining the gambling population at large. It's possible to beat the trend by being good and playing the right games, but overall, people lose money gambling.

      With stocks, you're virtually guaranteed a net gain by following some very simple rules. Don't base your purchases on sudden trends. Diversify. Play long term. Doing this, anyone can get a good return from the stock market. And when you get a return, everyone wins. That's because your money wasn't just going into a betting pool, it was being invested, and the growth in your money comes directly from value being created by the companies you invested in.

      In short, in gambling you will lose long-term unless you play things just right, in stocks you will win long-term unless you make an effort not to.

      So what is it that makes gambling better?

      --
      If you mod me Overrated, you are admitting that you have no penis.
    83. Re:This is why by mestar · · Score: 1

      you are wrong.

      total stock market return = dividends - brokers' commissions.

      everything else is a zero sum game.

      Speculative returns come from somebody's loses. To make money from price increase, somebody else has to lose that money. Earnings growth is only seen trough (probably future) dividends.

    84. Re:This is why by earlymon · · Score: 1

      Congratulations. This is one of the longest threads I've ever seen attached to a 2-liner. Strange phenomenon, especially given the nature of many of the comments. I'm remiss to label it for very obvious reasons. (snappy salute) Well done!

      --
      Pathological kinda promises Path + Logical - but instead, you get stuck with pathetic.
    85. Re:This is why by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You're speaking nonsense. The value of a stock goes up because the company gets bigger and better, not because more suckers were found to pay in to the ponzy scheme.

      That may be so, but I have done some custom 8 monitor installs for guys with T1 or fibre connections in their homes that somehow surf these short term fluctuations to make fuckloads of money.
      This guy had 5 properties, was renovating all of them, and money was no object on the install job. Actually the apple 30" cinema's were not to his liking, he wanted something even better.
      One guy had a screen installed in every line of sight in his house, including the bathroom. In the span of 90 seconds or less, huge sums of money could be made or lost I was told. Any glitch
      in connectivity during the day was potentially catastrophic for him.

    86. Re:This is why by E+IS+mC(Square) · · Score: 1

      I just hope nobody is following your advise. Though I believe stock market is one form of gamble (at least for short players who make the majority), in general, over last century (or so), the average ROI is 7%. So, long term investment does make sense.

    87. Re:This is why by void* · · Score: 1

      Hookers and Booze is a gamble - the Hookers could steal your Booze, or the Booze could steal your ability to perform.

      --


      Code or be coded.
    88. Re:This is why by couchslug · · Score: 1

      "Right now we are advising all our clients to put everything they've got into canned food and shotguns."

      I find your ideas intriguing and would like to subscribe to your newsletter:

      http://www.newsday.com/news/local/wire/newjersey/ny-bc-nj--campbellssoup-st0930sep30,0,1001597.story

      "Camden-based food processor Campbell Soup Company was the only stock in the Standard & Poor's 500 index to post a gain during Monday's historic sell-off.

      Its stock rose 12 cents in the midst of the biggest one-day point decline in the history of the Dow Jones Industrial Average."

      Firearm makers are stable, but haven't done anything spectacular. Still, we'll all need to protect our soup.

      --
      "This post is an artistic work of fiction and falsehood. Only a fool would take anything posted here as fact."
    89. Re:This is why by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Thinking "I'll put my money in the stock market now then in five years, I'll cash it out" is plain wrong. Gradually you need to move away from stocks into bonds.

      A five year plan would be

      2008: 100% stocks - 0% bonds

      2009: 80% stocks - 20% bonds

      2010: 60% stocks - 40% bonds

      2011: 40% stocks - 60% bonds

      2012: 20% stocks - 80% bonds

    90. Re:This is why by Red+Flayer · · Score: 1

      Personally, I'm still waiting for Cisco to admit to itself it's no longer a growth-based tech company and to start paying dividends.

      Good luck with that. Those with vested stock options will never issue a dividend if they can help it, by doing so they reduce their own profit when they leave the company. This is a big reason why paying out dividends is so uncommon in tech companies -- the people calling the shots have too much to lose by issuing dividends. And that is without the tax advantages...

      If you want dividends, stay away from tech companies. Look at MS, for example -- rebuying stock instead of issuing a dividend. Who really benefits from that -- those who have unexercised options. Not the common shareholder.

      --
      "Trolls they were, but filled with the evil will of their master: a fell race..." -- J.R.R. Tolkien on Olog-hai
    91. Re:This is why by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0
      No. The idea is that the value of stocks fluctuate over time. (Have you seen stock charts? those suckers can be crazy-volatile. all over the place.) Because you buy a fixed amount each month, you'll end up buying more of the stock when it's cheap, and less when it's expensive; as a result, you'll end up with a pile of stock for which you paid a below-average amount per share.

      And all this is before the value of the stock is expected to trend upwards over time.

      Also, the approach helps keep you more disciplined about investing. Which is good for you. Since it means you're less inclined to stop saving money with some excuse about market volatility when it's really as good a time as any, or better, to be about investing for the future.

      You're on Slashdot. Go find some price history data on a few ETFs or mutual funds somewhere, and write a script to run a simulation if you don't believe me.

    92. Re:This is why by thermowax · · Score: 1

      Yeah, that's 'cause you were at The Bellagio. The higher end places are tightening up on the booze a little. I read recently that Steve Wynn ordered no free drinks for _any_ slot players. I haven't verified this, because I don't play slots and I don't typically patronize Strip casinos.

      ObRant: The Strip sucks. It's crowded, snobby, and expensive. I suppose if you want the vacation experience it's good for that, but if you want to gamble and suck down free booze Downtown is the way to go. I was at Caesar's for BlackHat in August and the freaking tables were $25 minimum. After the con I rolled into a comped room at Fitzgerald's and had my fill of free drinks and $5 tables.

      However, if you must gamble on the Strip, I suggest Bill's Gamblin' Hall, Casino Royale, and The Excalibur. They usually have reasonable minimums and plenty of free booze.

    93. Re:This is why by cayenne8 · · Score: 1
      "Maybe once you own the house and your kids are grown up, if you want to save for your retirement...?"

      Blow off having kids...nothing but an anchor on your life, and drain on your finances.

      Also...avoid actually marrying...you have to give up half of what you own each time...just date them, and when done, trade them in for a newer model. The savings is great, and the reward is, you're not stuck with the same saggy, again model for the rest of your life.

      :)

      --
      Light travels faster than sound. This is why some people appear bright until you hear them speak.........
    94. Re:This is why by Belial6 · · Score: 1

      Almost every time I play Blackjack. I have won more money than I have lost. I am in the net positive for all blackjack I have ever played. Of course by the time I tip out the waitresses and pay for the other items in my trip, I usually come back from Vegas with a little less than I went with. Now, I'm not saying that gambling in a casino has better odds than gambling. Just saying that losing lots of money isn't always the case.

    95. Re:This is why by michaelhood · · Score: 4, Funny

      After a quick visit to the dictionary, I have to admit I am rather disappointed that waitron is not a robotic cocktail waitress that I was previously unaware of.

    96. Re:This is why by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You come up with this great scheme to get any drink in the house for a nickel and then you buy Heineken??? Dude, we need to talk

    97. Re:This is why by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      This stock market return is based on John Bogle, the genius behind Vanguard. There are fees, but that's why he advocates very-low-cost broad-market index funds.

    98. Re:This is why by stars_are_number_1 · · Score: 1

      For anyone interested in help with achieving exactly this, check out daveramsey.com. Dave's plan is not his own, he admits that up front. It's just common sense advice, motivation, and tools to succeed in life. And, for the record, I am not employed by him--I just believe in his work.

    99. Re:This is why by glenstar · · Score: 1

      Amateur!

    100. Re:This is why by Alpha830RulZ · · Score: 1

      You make the same mistake that many do: the stock market is not about growth.

      Look into IBM's capitalization over the past 30 years. Or Exxon's, or GE's, or Intel's, or Microsoft's. Look at their headcount, their inflation adjusted sales.

      What I think you mean is that the historical returns from the stock market, widely ascribed to be about 10% on average include dividends, which is a true statement.

      --
      I was taught to respect my elders. The trouble is, it's getting harder and harder to find some.
    101. Re:This is why by k-macjapan · · Score: 1

      I used to go to vegas for work at least once a month for a year. During that time I stayed at pretty much every major hotel and played in most of the casinos worth entering. I can say without hesitation that drinks are still comped. Granted if you are at the higher stakes tables the waitresses tend to come around more frequently. Also as with any bar if you tip well in the beginning the waitress will remember and return much regularly.

    102. Re:This is why by Brickwall · · Score: 2, Informative

      Many high tech companies regularly repurchase their shares. Those who decide to sell get their "dividend" in the form of cash receipts from the sale of stock. Cisco, for example, authorized $10 BILLION in share buybacks last year.

      --
      What was once true, is no longer so
    103. Re:This is why by FooAtWFU · · Score: 1
      Not that the Dow still isn't impressively Up over time, but...

      Are those percentages adjusted for inflation?

      --
      The World Wide Web is dying. Soon, we shall have only the Internet.
    104. Re:This is why by drsquare · · Score: 1

      European economies have grown a solid 2% a year post-WWII. The American economy has grown a terriffic 4% a year.

      Now take off inflation and capital gains tax, and what are you left with?

      Yes, it's the 30-40 year time horizon that matters.

      In which case, you're gambling that you're going to live for 30-40 years. Let's say you put money in a 30-year, 6% investment. Let's say that inflation and taxes take away half of that, then you die at 29. Is that a good return on investment?

    105. Re:This is why by Eivind · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Anything is a gamble.

      Putting the money in your mattress guarantees you'll lose value at the rate of inflation. (several percent a year, over 40 years you'd be lucky to have a third of the value kept...

      Buying GOLD for the money risks that goldprices fall, or don't keep up with inflation.

      Putting them in the BANK risks that the bank goes bankrupt (assuming you've got more cash than the guarantees cover), or that inflation and taxes will eat any gains. Or that the dollar falls so your value is reduced.

      So yes. Buying stock is a gamble. If the economy as a whole is weaker in 40 years than it is today, then it's likely you'll get less value out 40 years from now than you put in today. True.

      The economy has been growing steadily for the last few hundred years though. There's been setbacks, true. But none lasting even close to 40 years. 5 Years ? Hell yes. 10 ? Perhaps on a very few occasions, but extremely rare. 40 ? Not once.

      Past performance is no guarantee for future performance, true. But it's as good a guess as you're going to get.

      Also, you're forgetting about dividends. I've got stock that I've owned for a decade that are worth the same today as they where when I bougth them. And that still has been more profitable than bank over the same period.

    106. Re:This is why by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      WTF is a Waitron - you made that up

    107. Re:This is why by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The economy is not a zero sum game

      The economy IS a zero sum game. There is only a limited amount of money floating around. If you increase this amount you devalue the already circulating money.

    108. Re:This is why by joss · · Score: 2, Funny

      > If so we've got more serious problems to worry about than the Dow.

      We sure do: peak oil, global warming, asteroids, people who actually like Murder She Wrote. Now that's scary.

      --
      http://rareformnewmedia.com/
    109. Re:This is why by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Don't confuse poker with house games, poker is very beatable as long as you play better than the average player at your table (you have to include the rake in your calculations of course).

    110. Re:This is why by Imsdal · · Score: 2, Informative

      Having a company traded doesn't add any value after the IPO.

      You may want to learn more about the concept called Secondary Market Offering.

    111. Re:This is why by Imsdal · · Score: 1

      Actually, in most places the waitresses pay for the drinks themselves, so if you tip that little, they make no money at all. (I do assume that they pay less for the drinks than "full retail", though, but I don't really know exactly how much they do pay.

    112. Re:This is why by Imsdal · · Score: 1

      Say you have a slight edge over each opponent, and in total you have a 2/R chance of winning a hand. Now you have 2X-Y and have a net profit of X-Y.

      Just for the record: the trick in poker isn't to win more pots, but rather to win bigger pots, and losing less on the pots you don't win. The thing is that not all pots are the same size. This makes the maths a bit more complicated. This complication is the main reason there is such a thing as poker skill.

    113. Re:This is why by Anonymous+Brave+Guy · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Thinking "I'll put my money in the stock market now then in five years, I'll cash it out" is plain wrong. Gradually you need to move away from stocks into bonds.

      I'm not going to get into financial advice; I suspect that we would agree a lot, but this isn't really the forum for that discussion. Regardless, the way the tax system is set up in my country, and the advice that was routinely given by numerous financial advisers until quite recently, both encouraged people to take a stocks-and-shares view even for medium-term investments, and effectively imposed significant penalties on those looking for safer or alternative investment opportunities — or just keeping their money in a bank account, for that matter.

      --
      If you disagree, post your argument. (-1, Overrated) isn't your personal censorship tool for views you don't like.
    114. Re:This is why by jwdb · · Score: 1

      I believe that's already adjusted for inflation - the stock market as a whole grows around 7% a year without correcting for inflation. And I'm lucky enough to live in a country with no capital gains tax.

      If you die at 29, having a good investment is the least of your worries. Is going to college and starting on a career then still a good investment? Would you rather, for instance, have gone trekking around the world, supporting yourself by doing odd jobs and having experienced more than most by the time you die?

    115. Re:This is why by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      ....infront of a slot-machine....

      So you go to vegas, to drink at a slot-machine..

      Can you BE any more sad?

    116. Re:This is why by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      What do you think that slot is for???

    117. Re:This is why by AndersOSU · · Score: 1

      The stock market is only a game of hot potato if there is an end condition AND investors know about it sufficiently in advance to prepare an end game.

      Since the stock market is open-ended every stock purchase is an investment and every stock sale is a withdrawal. The act of buying or selling does not increase the value of the share, the time spent holding it does. Presumably during that time the company has increased it's worth and that value is reflected in the stock price. (again, if we buy index funds substitute economy for company and blunt your risk.)

      Eventually, the universe will undergo a thermal death. On that timescale all value will eventually decrease to zero, but even on that timescale we have know way to identify the maximum until well after it's past. Up until that point there is no fundamental reason that the economy has to stop working. It is possible that it does stop working and there's a massive human die-off, but it is not necessary. (and if there's a catastrophe talk of investing is a moot point anyway.)

    118. Re:This is why by oliderid · · Score: 1

      Assuming, of course, that the companies you've invested in don't fold with a negative value. From that, there's no recovery.

      Don't buy individual stocks

      Everything is a matter of balance. I have invested in JP morgan chase (nyse:JPM) in August ($36.6 I think) now the market value is +/- $46 (+25%). It truly outperfoms the market IMHO. Of course I didn't invest my whole savings on this. But saying you shouldn't buy individual stocks is as weird as saying that you should buy invididual stocks only. Things were you should never play as an amateur are the intraday and any short term speculation. Professionnal have information sources/technologies you'll never have.

    119. Re:This is why by jollyreaper · · Score: 1

      After a quick visit to the dictionary, I have to admit I am rather disappointed that waitron is not a robotic cocktail waitress that I was previously unaware of.

      You think you're disappointed? I googled "waittron definition" and got just one result: Lesbotronic. Sadly, not the cybernetic sapphobot I was imagining.

      Create Your Lesbotronic Profile
      I feed people (restauranteur, waittron, chef, nutritionist). ..... adopted a broad definition for the meaning of the word "lesbian." ...
      www.lesbotronic.com/make.html - 161k

      --
      Kwisatz Haderach
      Sell the spice to CHOAM
      This Mahdi took Shaddam's Throne
    120. Re:This is why by rthille · · Score: 1

      And shotgun shells I hope...

      We've only got about 1000 rounds of 9mm and probably a couple of boxes of shotgun shells...time to stock up again.

      --
      Awesome furniture, accessories and cabinetry in Santa Rosa, CA: http://humanity-home.com/
    121. Re:This is why by ShoulderGuy · · Score: 1

      I've heard of those. The less you tip them, the more they want to Kill all Humans.

    122. Re:This is why by complete+loony · · Score: 1

      Now here's the problem. While the economy may have been growing at 4% a year. Debt has been growing faster. Most of the growth in the economy in the last couple decades has been fueled by somebody somewhere borrowing money to fund it. The reason we have this current financial crisis is because we've run out of people to loan money to. Loaning $700 billion to fund more spending is the worst thing the government can do right now.

      --
      09F91102 no, 455FE104 nope, F190A1E8 uh-uh, 7A5F8A09 that's not it, C87294CE no. Ah! 452F6E403CDF10714E41DFAA257D313F.
    123. Re:This is why by AmonRa1979 · · Score: 1

      Oh, I see where you might think I say that poker is better than all investments (actually, I don't but judging from Free the Cowards post above I doubt he will read this part). It's nice of you to go to Wikipedia and take a small snippet of a sentence that supports your stance. There is a maximum to the house rake. In most games you don't have to pay an ante so you don't pay the rake to see a hand. Hell, not everyone plays in a casino... not everyone plays poker where a rake is taken.

      You know what? I'm not going to sit and explain things about poker that you obviously don't know. Why are you arguing this when you don't have all the information? How about this... go buy some stock and see how much you're charged for it. Oh, that's right... pay the broker's 'rake'. Sure, there is a maximum, but the exact percentage then is determine by how much you put in. Sound familiar?

      Another misconception that you seem to have is that the stock market generates wealth. It does not. In order for you to get the value of your stock, someone has to buy it... they have to put the money back in that you pulled out. If you're lucky enough to get a dividend, then you have to realize that a very large portion of that money was kept by the company for 'reinvestment' or compensation to the CEO/Board/etc... When it comes down to it, what happens when a major company goes out of business? Do people get all the money back that they invested in it? Essentially whoever bought the last round of stocks from that company gets stuck fronting everyone who made money in that stock that came before them. Not all companies 'assets' can be liquidated. Seriously, what 'wealth' does Microsoft have that can be liquidated if it were to go out of business?

      What it comes down to is that there are vast similarities between gambling and the stock market. I use poker as an example of a form of gambling that has many benefits over investing in stock. When you play poker, you have all the available information right in front of you. When you are in the market, the information is usually hidden in closed door meetings... you don't know when mass hysteria is going to cause people to dump the stock that you invested in.

    124. Re:This is why by networkconsultant · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Actually, if you follow the markets wisley: 1. you'll learn how to leverage options and futures properly. 2. you'll buy your home at the height of a recession 3. you'll never invest emotionally 4. you'll never put all your eggs in one basket. 5. you'll retire at 40 on a salary that would be akin to a small countries GDP. All investment involves risk, the inherent risk to reward ratio is what drives people to stock's, bonds, T-bills, options, futures, money markets and other commodities. Markets are cyclical, this is a bad part of the cycle when things are overvalued and we'll hit a huge correction and some banks may go bankrupt (with mitigating factors including the banks willingness to risk the fed's money). And that's fine. Oddley enough the markets are like poker, except there's 4 billion people sitting at the table and they are all jostling for position; that and every time i play hand with a prop-trader I get fleeced, they play both the table and the game.

    125. Re:This is why by networkconsultant · · Score: 1

      I for one accept being the waitrons overlord!

    126. Re:This is why by Free+the+Cowards · · Score: 1

      What it comes down to is that there are vast similarities between gambling and the stock market.

      There are vast trivial similarities. But let's do a real comparison.

      The stock market is a fairly easy way to make money in the long term. Tens, possibly hundreds of millions of people have successfully used it for their retirements, often without even knowing it. If you have a pension then very likely you are making money on the stock market without even knowing it.

      Making money at gambling, on the other hand, is something that only works if you own a casino or if you are an above-average poker player with more time to waste at it than most people care to spare.

      It's trivial to make good investments in the stock market. Buy a diverse portfolio (mutual funds make this really easy) and let it sit. Realize that downturns like the recent unpleasantness happen, and that the only thing you should do is nothing. Now your rate of return won't be as high as if you spent a great deal of time and effort on trading and took more risks. But the point is that there still is a rate of return!

      There simply is no similar plan with casino gambling. If you disagree, present the plan.

      --
      If you mod me Overrated, you are admitting that you have no penis.
    127. Re:This is why by Diakoneo · · Score: 1

      An uncle once told me an odd story. He, his wife, and a group of friends went to Vegas on a mission. They took two hourly slots each, 24 hours, and played one machine. No - don't ask me why, it was just something "fun" to do. They even had other patrons cheering them on! When all players had taken their turn they calculated their winnings. To a hundredths percentage point it matched exactly what the casino said it payed out on slots. It was for the entertainment, not the winnings.

      --
      "Well..here I am..." - Jubal Early
    128. Re:This is why by Tawnos · · Score: 1

      Except that you're wrong. One, I work at MS, they don't give out options, but actual stock. Two, they pay dividends, this fiscal quarter there is a 2 cent per share increase in dividends. In 2004, a special dividend was given to the tune of $3 per share. The rebuying of stock is likely because upper management thinks stock price is below actual value, and because it allows them to keep giving out stock to employees without diluting their share.

    129. Re:This is why by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Thank you. I'm never going to pay full price for drinks again.

    130. Re:This is why by Red+Flayer · · Score: 1

      Sorry, MS was a bad example. Note, though, that there are individuals at MS with unexercised options (or there were when they started issuing dividends) -- this is why MS rewrote their option policy.

      --
      "Trolls they were, but filled with the evil will of their master: a fell race..." -- J.R.R. Tolkien on Olog-hai
    131. Re:This is why by jamstar7 · · Score: 1

      I think I see the problem with that logic. By your reasoning, the best time to invest ever would have been October 29, 1929.

      IIRC, that's what JD Rockefeller did, waited til the market totally tanked, then walked in with a suitcase full of money and bought up everything in sight at the fire sale...

      --
      Understanding the scope of the problem is the first step on the path to true panic.
    132. Re:This is why by jamstar7 · · Score: 1

      Unless people are cheating. Then you think you know the odds, but the reality is something else entirely.

      And the stock market differs from the online offshore poker sites how? Or does the phrase 'insider trading' not mean anything to you?

      --
      Understanding the scope of the problem is the first step on the path to true panic.
    133. Re:This is why by Xtifr · · Score: 1

      (Spinning rapidly off-topic here, so I'll dump my "karma bonus".)

      I googled "waittron definition" and got just one result: Lesbotronic.

      That's probably because you misspelled it. The word only has one "t", like "waiter" or "waitress".

    134. Re:This is why by dcollins · · Score: 1

      "No. The idea is that the value of stocks fluctuate over time. (Have you seen stock charts? those suckers can be crazy-volatile. all over the place.) Because you buy a fixed amount each month, you'll end up buying more of the stock when it's cheap, and less when it's expensive; as a result, you'll end up with a pile of stock for which you paid a below-average amount per share... You're on Slashdot. Go find some price history data on a few ETFs or mutual funds somewhere, and write a script to run a simulation if you don't believe me."

      Yep, that's the myth in a nutshell! I've done this before. It always works out worse than if you'd just invested it all up front -- unless the overall trend is downwards.

      Please give me an example of data where you think dollar-cost-averaging helps. I've never seen one to date.

      --
      We know where leadership by an anti-intellectual "strongman" who scapegoats minorities and likes boisterous rallies goes
  4. Gambling fair? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Don't bet on it. ;)

  5. Why do people place such a sucker bet anyway? by elrous0 · · Score: 4, Insightful
    It's hard enough to trust casinos even when they're under the scrutiny of a licensing body as serious as the Nevada Gaming Commission, much less when they're under no scrutiny at all (or under some "commission" with no actual legislative or enforcement authority). Casino gambling in general is a sucker bet (even under strict conditions the odds always favor the house), but online gaming and other unregulated gambling is ESPECIALLY so (since you haven't the slightest assurance that you're not being cheated).

    I still don't understand why people do this. Are they really THAT desperate to place a bet, any bet? Might as well become a day-trader and play the stock market for your fix. It would be a lot more regulated than most online poker.

    --
    SJW: Someone who has run out of real oppression, and has to fake it.
    1. Re:Why do people place such a sucker bet anyway? by Free+the+Cowards · · Score: 5, Insightful

      People do it for two reasons.

      1) It's fun. When you plunk down $20 for you and your significant other to see a movie in a theater, you have no chance of ever getting that money back. But it's worth it to you for the entertainment. Same goes with gambling. You lose money but a lot of people enjoy it. I don't, personally, but many people do.

      2) It's profitable. When playing poker, you don't have to beat the house, you just have to beat the other players. The house takes a portion of the winnings but if you can consistently beat the rest of the table then you come out ahead. It's not like other casino games in this respect. You're not playing against the house, you're just paying the house for the privilege of playing against other people. You can, and many people do, make a living playing poker.

      Well, there are actually three types:

      3) Idiots think they will win big.

      But the point being, with reasons 1 and 2 it's possible to gamble without being irrational or stupid.

      --
      If you mod me Overrated, you are admitting that you have no penis.
    2. Re:Why do people place such a sucker bet anyway? by venicebeach · · Score: 2, Informative

      Casino gambling in general is a sucker bet (even under strict conditions the odds always favor the house), but online gaming and other unregulated gambling is ESPECIALLY so

      This is exactly how poker differs from other casino games. Since players play against each other, the game is not biased against anyone. The house takes a cut of each pot (the rake), but skill determines who wins in the long run. For example, here in California poker is legal while other gambling games are not since it is considered a game of skill.

      I do however agree with the need for regulation. I've been following this particular case from the beginning and the scary part is that nothing would have been uncovered if it weren't for the diligence of the players, who discovered the anomalies in several player's statistics, dug deeper and deeper to find the facts, and then pressed and pressed these companies to hold them accountable. Russ Hamilton, the cheater behind the scenes is a former World Series of Poker winner who was one of the founders of Ultimate Bet and seems to have set this whole scheme up from the beginning.

    3. Re:Why do people place such a sucker bet anyway? by spacedrive4000 · · Score: 1

      Might as well become a day-trader and play the stock market for your fix. It would be a lot more regulated than most online poker.

      Hah. If only that were true. Despite the hard work of the endless Sarbanes-Oxley regulations, it's hard to be sure where the money is coming from and where it's going. And even when we are sure, the market can just up and change its mind.

      Consider Apple computer. It's a great company that makes great computers. I can't think of a more stable solution. (That's not saying it is stable, I just can't think of a one with a better franchise.) I don't think its prospects changed over the last week. But boy does the stock market disagree.

    4. Re:Why do people place such a sucker bet anyway? by greg1104 · · Score: 1

      You need $25K in order to open a day trading account. I started playing on-line poker with $10 a friend transferred to my account. Playing poker against people from all around the world is really entertaining. Even back when I lost money doing it, the penny tables didn't cost me that much per hour while I was learning relative to things that were equally entertaining.

      Playing Texas Hold'Em on-line is not a strict sucker bet, since the other players are certainly not optimal, particularly in no-limit play. While the house is unquestionably the big winner, if you're a good player you'll win on average against people who aren't, and therefore run a steady profit. I've made enough money playing at UltimateBet to withdraw the original $100 stake I put in to play after doubling it, and now play only with the profit there. Small change, sure, but now it's entertainment for me with a consistent rate of return.

      It's a fun outlet, and there are actual lessons you can learn there that apply to the real world. For example, I have more than once lost a hand where I was more than a 900:1 favorite after pushing all-in after the flop--there were only two cards left in the deck that could be dealt to my opponent for them to win, and they got them both. That's not the play being rigged, that's sheer statistics. Play several thousand hands, and you discover that things that happen only very infrequently nonetheless still do happen. That really gives you a gut feeling for gambler's risk of ruin that you don't get any other way. If everyone operating in the financial markets had such experience there wouldn't be so many companies in the middle of meltdown right now after taking on excessively leveraged risk.

    5. Re:Why do people place such a sucker bet anyway? by jandrese · · Score: 1

      2) It's profitable. When playing poker, you don't have to beat the house, you just have to beat the other players. The house takes a portion of the winnings but if you can consistently beat the rest of the table then you come out ahead. It's not like other casino games in this respect. You're not playing against the house, you're just paying the house for the privilege of playing against other people. You can, and many people do, make a living playing poker.

      This aspect always confuses me. All players together put X amount of money in, and get X - Y amount back out in the end (albeit concentrated on only a few players). Unless you can guarentee that you're going to play against people who are worse than you (I guess the game works on a "sucker born every minute" policy?) then in the end you can't make money over the long term.

      --

      I read the internet for the articles.
    6. Re:Why do people place such a sucker bet anyway? by spacedrive4000 · · Score: 1

      Might as well become a day-trader and play the stock market for your fix. It would be a lot more regulated than most online poker.

      Here's another point: the stock market isn't zero sum. At the end of the night of poker, the sum of all the money at the table is the same as the sum when it all began. It was just shuffled around. At a casino, the dealer snarfs a few chips from every hand as a rake, one of the big reasons I just don't play at a casino.

      A stock market isn't zero sum and that opens up many possibilities and many risks. Let's say someone sells 1 million shares for a dollar at an IPO. Then the company does something really brilliant making the shares worth $1000 a piece. The money at the table went from 1 million to 1 billion thanks to the hard work of the people at the company.

      Of course this can also go in the other direction as we've seen lately. But I think gambling on the stock market is much more interesting because of this fact. It's not mano-a-mano grubbing to beat out the person next to you. It's a collaborative effort to improve the world. I would be overstating it to say that everyone can win in the stock market, but there's something to the idea. :-)

    7. Re:Why do people place such a sucker bet anyway? by Free+the+Cowards · · Score: 3, Insightful

      I don't understand. You answer your own question. The people who make money at it do guarantee that they play against people who are worse than them (on average), by virtue of becoming and staying good at the game.

      Of course an average player can't make money at it. (Unless they have a skill for finding tables filled with really crappy players, anyway.) That's why it's not the average players who do it for a living.

      Obviously the people who fall into categories 1 and 3 must put in more money than the people who fall into category 2 take out, but that no more disproves the existence of category 2 than the fact that customers put more money into a store than the workers take out disproves the existence of the workers.

      --
      If you mod me Overrated, you are admitting that you have no penis.
    8. Re:Why do people place such a sucker bet anyway? by camperdave · · Score: 1

      I came across a tidbit the other day, saying that craps was also a game of skill. A good craps player can get the dice to roll certain numbers through lots of practice, in much the same way that a good bowler can nail a 7-10 split, or a good darts player can hit the treble 20.

      --
      When our name is on the back of your car, we're behind you all the way!
    9. Re:Why do people place such a sucker bet anyway? by Unending · · Score: 1

      This right here is why I don't like the stock market either.
      Not that it is impossible to make money at either, but if you do so you do it at the expense of others without them getting anything in return.

    10. Re:Why do people place such a sucker bet anyway? by Cajun+Hell · · Score: 2, Insightful

      But it's worth it to you for the entertainment. Same goes with gambling. You lose money but a lot of people enjoy it.

      How can they enjoy it, when they know the trend must result in loss?

      Oh, and: how dare they enjoy it?! I don't enjoy it, so they shouldn't either.

      BTW, they're having sex the wrong way too. And they listen to crappy music. The "beer" they drink sucks. They run the wrong OS on their personal computer, and the wrong text editor too.

      Something has to be done about these people.

      --
      "Believe me!" -- Donald Trump
    11. Re:Why do people place such a sucker bet anyway? by morgan_greywolf · · Score: 1

      Casino gambling in general is a sucker bet (even under strict conditions the odds always favor the house)

      Except one. Blackjack. Blackjack is the only game that favors the player. 49 to 51 in favor of the player. Unless the player is stupid. Most players are.

    12. Re:Why do people place such a sucker bet anyway? by Bill,+Shooter+of+Bul · · Score: 1

      1) is crazy. I don't believe a single person that says this. Its like reading Penthouse for the articles. Those that play for fun play in the basements or for free online for worthless pieces of plastic or credits.

      I will say that People think its fun to win money. Everyone starts with the belief that they are playing it for the second reason, but at the end of the night will tell everyone they were playing for the first reason, but really is it was for the third reason.

      --
      Well.. maybe. Or Maybe not. But Definitely not sort of.
    13. Re:Why do people place such a sucker bet anyway? by jandrese · · Score: 1

      Theoretically with the stock market, the money you invest in the companies is used to grow the company, meaning there is a chance for everybody to win because you have helped to create wealth by letting the company become more profitable. In gambling no wealth is ever created, in fact it is lost once you consider the house cut.

      --

      I read the internet for the articles.
    14. Re:Why do people place such a sucker bet anyway? by jandrese · · Score: 0, Flamebait

      It's a fact of life that there is always someone better than you lurking somewhere. The champions of today will be beat by some pimply faced guy from the internet next year. It would seem that the primary skill of successful professional poker players is avoiding one another and finding tables with suckers on them.

      Your logic on the second paragraph is stunning. Do you use that kind of logic to melt the brains of other players? I think it would work.

      --

      I read the internet for the articles.
    15. Re:Why do people place such a sucker bet anyway? by sorak · · Score: 1

      People do it for two reasons.

      1) It's fun. When you plunk down $20 for you and your significant other to see a movie in a theater, you have no chance of ever getting that money back. But it's worth it to you for the entertainment. Same goes with gambling. You lose money but a lot of people enjoy it. I don't, personally, but many people do.

      2) It's profitable. When playing poker, you don't have to beat the house, you just have to beat the other players. The house takes a portion of the winnings but if you can consistently beat the rest of the table then you come out ahead. It's not like other casino games in this respect. You're not playing against the house, you're just paying the house for the privilege of playing against other people. You can, and many people do, make a living playing poker.

      Well, there are actually three types:

      3) Idiots think they will win big.

      But the point being, with reasons 1 and 2 it's possible to gamble without being irrational or stupid.

      So, to paraphrase:
      1. It's fun.
      2. You can make money at it.
      3. Stupid people think you can make money at it.

    16. Re:Why do people place such a sucker bet anyway? by Cajun+Hell · · Score: 1

      Unless you can guarentee that you're going to play against people who are worse than you (I guess the game works on a "sucker born every minute" policy?) then in the end you can't make money over the long term.

      You don't have to guarantee they're worse, they just have to be worse.

      So maybe it's a game of luck rather than skill after all.

      Except then there's the meta-game, where you Social Engineer the situation such that you are at a table with players worse than you. That takes skill. ;) Suckers aren't just born every minute; they also have to be found.

      And if you can't find them, you have to make them. This is where boobies come in, but that's a talk for another day.

      --
      "Believe me!" -- Donald Trump
    17. Re:Why do people place such a sucker bet anyway? by GeorgeS · · Score: 1

      1) It's fun. When you plunk down $20 for you and your significant other to see a movie in a theater, you have no chance of ever getting that money back. But it's worth it to you for the entertainment. Same goes with gambling. You lose money but a lot of people enjoy it. I don't, personally, but many people do.

      This can also be a gamble. What if the movie sucks?

      --
      "I'd rather have a bottle in front of me than have to have a frontal lobotomy."
    18. Re:Why do people place such a sucker bet anyway? by naoursla · · Score: 1

      3) Idiots think they will win big.

      When playing poker, we call those people ATM's.

    19. Re:Why do people place such a sucker bet anyway? by billcopc · · Score: 1

      I'll vouch for #1, but the same could be said of any pastime. I'm not so fond of pissing my money away in casinos, though I do indulge in the occasional poker game with a handful of friends. I never win, but twenty bucks won't kill me.

      Meanwhile, I spend on average a couple hundred bucks every month at the pub. To some people, that's every bit as demonic as gambling. To me, it's just a different form of entertainment - networking with a bunch of art-school flunkies never hurt anyone. It's way cheaper than a coke habit and just as mind-boggling :)

      --
      -Billco, Fnarg.com
    20. Re:Why do people place such a sucker bet anyway? by demonlapin · · Score: 1

      This American Life. Episode 192. Poker pros describe how they finance both the house cut and their own living expenses (to the tune of around $200-300k/yr) off businessmen who think they know how to play, while on net winning little or nothing off each other.

    21. Re:Why do people place such a sucker bet anyway? by nedlohs · · Score: 1

      Yes, you play against people who are worse than you. That's pretty obvious.

      Such people are very easy find in casinos. Thank you TV poker!

      The most important skill in poker is table selection - much more important than the actual playing of the game. Need to find the idiots and know when to change to a better table...

    22. Re:Why do people place such a sucker bet anyway? by Chris+Burke · · Score: 1

      It's a fact of life that there is always someone better than you lurking somewhere. The champions of today will be beat by some pimply faced guy from the internet next year. It would seem that the primary skill of successful professional poker players is avoiding one another and finding tables with suckers on them.

      It's not that hard. If you come up to a table and can't immediately tell who the sucker is, that means the sucker is you. :)

      --

      The enemies of Democracy are
    23. Re:Why do people place such a sucker bet anyway? by billcopc · · Score: 1

      If you lose $20 or $40 while spending an evening socializing and having a few drinks, I'd call that entertainment. How is it any worse than blowing $60 on a video game, or going to the movies ?

      Modern, urban entertainment typically costs money. Playing a game of cards with chatty/goofy or clever people can be a great way to kill a few hours. Personally, I don't gamble anything I'm not 100% comfortable losing. I literally walk into the game assuming I'm going to lose. If I win, well my buddy and me will go for dinner/shopping after the game... and if I lose, we'll probably have dinner anyway... whatever!

      Most of the people who "play to win", probably shouldn't be playing in the first place. They don't have the right attitude, and they can't afford to lose what they're risking. The moment you start seeing it as work, instead of a game, is the moment you stop having fun.

      --
      -Billco, Fnarg.com
    24. Re:Why do people place such a sucker bet anyway? by djwavelength · · Score: 1

      It doesn't matter how many players there are that can beat you - it isn't a game of winner-takes-all in the long run.

      Good poker play is similar to good investing - you take the information you have and make decisions based on that. It is a lot of numbers - how much money do your opponents have on the table? (This is your potential reward.)

      What are the odds that they have you beat? (This is your potential risk.)

      What moves do you have to make to convince them that you have them beat? (This is how you make your plays.)

      Good play means making these decisions in every hand you're involved in. You will find that a large number of professional poker players are former software engineers and math nerds. It helps to be good with numbers.

    25. Re:Why do people place such a sucker bet anyway? by Free+the+Cowards · · Score: 1

      You don't believe that people go to casinos to have fun, knowing that they will come out of it with less money than they went in? Well, believe what you like, but I happen to personally know several people who prove my side and disprove yours.

      Casinos can be tremendously entertaining for the right type of personality. Gambling can be fun even if you don't win, there are nice side benefits like drinks and shows, and on a plain hourly basis it can be very cheap when done right. I don't enjoy it myself, but that's hardly going to make me deny that it happens.

      --
      If you mod me Overrated, you are admitting that you have no penis.
    26. Re:Why do people place such a sucker bet anyway? by SpiderClan · · Score: 1

      The champions of today can afford to be beat by some pimply faced guy from the internet, if they're smart, as long as they win most of the time, only wager what they can afford to lost on a particular game, and pull-out when they recognize that the pimply-faced kid is better than them.

    27. Re:Why do people place such a sucker bet anyway? by Free+the+Cowards · · Score: 1

      It's a fact of life that there is always someone better than you lurking somewhere. The champions of today will be beat by some pimply faced guy from the internet next year. It would seem that the primary skill of successful professional poker players is avoiding one another and finding tables with suckers on them.

      That's an astonishing flash of insight you had there. By the way, have you also discovered that the sky is blue and the sun is warm? These are things I have recently realized and they have changed my life.

      Of course a poker player who's in it for the money wants to avoid players who are better than he is. Duh.

      Your logic on the second paragraph is stunning. Do you use that kind of logic to melt the brains of other players? I think it would work.

      Could you please be more specific? I don't see what's wrong with my logic. Yes, clearly people who make a living at poker must be subsidized by people who don't. And since the house takes a cut, there must be more money coming in from the people who don't than going out from the people who do. But that doesn't mean that it's impossible to make money from it.

      --
      If you mod me Overrated, you are admitting that you have no penis.
    28. Re:Why do people place such a sucker bet anyway? by Free+the+Cowards · · Score: 1

      I'd prefer to phrase the last one as "Stupid people think you can get rich at it." As far as I know, most professional poker players don't make astoundingly large amounts of money. Obviously it will vary a lot depending on their skill, where they play, and so forth. But the stupid people who are in there gambling with stars in their eyes aren't there to make a living at it, they're there to hit the jackpot and win big and never have to work again.

      --
      If you mod me Overrated, you are admitting that you have no penis.
    29. Re:Why do people place such a sucker bet anyway? by Free+the+Cowards · · Score: 1

      I don't gamble at all. I don't find it enjoyable, I have a hard time understanding how people do. But I accept that they do. I'm sure that everyone on this site has some kind of pastime that they spend fair amounts of money on, unless they're so dirt-poor that they simply can't afford one. Personally I spend a couple hundred bucks a month on flying. Unlike gambling there is absolutely no way that this will ever make money for me. And unlike gambling, there is a fair chance that it will one day kill me. And yet, tell people that I spend a couple hundred bucks a month flying sailplanes and people just think that's interesting, but tell them I blow a couple hundred bucks a month playing poker in a casino and suddenly I'm an idiot who doesn't understand math.

      --
      If you mod me Overrated, you are admitting that you have no penis.
    30. Re:Why do people place such a sucker bet anyway? by Xtifr · · Score: 1

      It's a fact of life that there is always someone better than you lurking somewhere.

      Well, obviously for that to be true, there would have to be an infinite number of people. With a finite number, there's always going to be one best, assuming that whatever we're talking about is something that has a strict ordering.

      But yeah, for everybody but that one guy, you're right. So, when you meet someone better, you cut your losses and move on. Fortunately, there's never a shortage of games filled with suckers who think they know poker.

      It would seem that the primary skill of successful professional poker players is avoiding one another and finding tables with suckers on them.

      Actually, although that's a necessary skill, it's hardly the primary one. First of all, you don't have to avoid other pros completely: most games have multiple winners and multiple losers, and you just need to find a game with enough enthusiastic amateurs (something the poker world never lacks in) to earn yourself a share. Basically, you just need a little common sense: are there a bunch of people here begging for someone to take their money away? More often than not, the answer is yes.

      The winner-takes-all tournament play you see on TV is actually pretty rare, and anyway, the money you earn from those has little or nothing to do with the money on the table. Those are sponsored events, like golf tournaments and such.

      The primary skills for a professional poker player are exactly what you'd expect: an ability to calculate odds quickly, to read people, and to avoid being read. Surprisingly easy and surprisingly rare.

      Like running a casino, being a professional poker player depends on the existence of superstitious, numerically-illiterate fools who think they can beat the odds or have no clue what the odds are in the first place. Fortunately for both the casinos and the poker pros, there's never a shortage of such people.

    31. Re:Why do people place such a sucker bet anyway? by JesseMcDonald · · Score: 1

      That's basically right. Except for the house's cut the game is zero-sum, so if some win others must lose. The losers aren't necessarily "suckers", though, as not everyone plays with the expectation of winning overall. A modest loss may be considered fair compensation for the opportunity to compete, and possibly learn a bit. The amount one can acceptably risk toward that end is up to the individual player.

      --
      "The state is that great fiction by which everyone tries to live at the expense of everyone else." - Bastiat
    32. Re:Why do people place such a sucker bet anyway? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      That's right - a good craps player can control the dice off the wall of the table to make 7's roughly 74% of the time. I can also bend spoons with my mind.

      Coincidentally, I used my craps winnings to open my own casino (without craps). If you send me your name and a credit card number (only to authorize against) I'll fly you down here, all expenses paid. I'd love to teach you my secrets.

    33. Re:Why do people place such a sucker bet anyway? by SecurityGuy · · Score: 1

      1) is crazy. I don't believe a single person that says this. Its like reading Penthouse for the articles. Those that play for fun play in the basements or for free online for worthless pieces of plastic or credits.

      Nope. I've tried yahoo and facebook. The play is ungodly awful because the players don't care if they win or lose. Playing against people whose play is irrational, uninformed, or just plain stupid is really not that fun.

    34. Re:Why do people place such a sucker bet anyway? by AmonRa1979 · · Score: 1

      Yes, but in the end if you want any of that money back, you have to sell the stock to someone. Unless you are about to die or retire, then you are probably selling because you think the stocks are going to drop in value (yes, there are more reasons than this to sell). At that point you find a sucker to buy it from you.

      While you are correct that stock does increase in value, at some point that value is maximized when the company can no longer produce new products that people want. It is for this reason that I think we have been turned into a throw away society. In order for these companies to stay 'productive' they build goods of lesser quality that have a planned failure period so that the customer has to buy a new one. In this case, the only value change of the stock is what customers put in. There is no increased value or wealth, it's just an accumulation of customer money. In fact, it sounds a lot like the sucker in a poker game. He's putting in money and not gaining any wealth from it, just entertainment. That wealth is distributed amongst the other players (stock holders) and the house (corporation/CEO/Board) takes a rake. Sure new companies who offer some completely new product will actually add wealth to the system, but unless a company continually comes up with new ideas they will just fall into the habit mentioned previously once everyone already has one of their products.

    35. Re:Why do people place such a sucker bet anyway? by SL+Baur · · Score: 1

      Unless you can guarentee that you're going to play against people who are worse than you

      That's rather the point. John Scarne, an author famous for writing about gambling in the 1950s and 1960s had a very simple strategy for beating poker. "Always play against weaker players. If you suspect you're not the strongest player at the table, get out of the game."

      Scarne was an interesting guy. Notable in the fact that it was he who first computed and published odds of winning/losing for various popular games.

    36. Re:Why do people place such a sucker bet anyway? by SL+Baur · · Score: 1

      Russ Hamilton, the cheater behind the scenes is a former World Series of Poker winner who was one of the founders of Ultimate Bet and seems to have set this whole scheme up from the beginning.

      Yeah, that was the part I find amazing. If he was a good enough player to win the "World Series", why did he need to cheat? Nobody is going to let him play again. He's probably KOS at casinos now too.

    37. Re:Why do people place such a sucker bet anyway? by Molochi · · Score: 1

      I stopped playing blackjack when vegas casinos stopped paying 3:2 on a blackjack out of a 6 deck shoe. Last trip, the only 3:2 single deck game was $100 a hand. Bleh.

      --
      "The Adobe Updater must update itself before it can check for updates. Would you like to update the Adobe Updater now?"
    38. Re:Why do people place such a sucker bet anyway? by SL+Baur · · Score: 1

      in much the same way that a good bowler can nail a 7-10 split

      Bad example. Nailing a 7-10 split involves luck and hurling the ball as hard as you can at one of the pins and pray that it bounces out of the pit in exactly the right direction. I do not think I've ever seen a good player in person hit one of those, but one of former league bowling teammates with an average barely in triple digits did it.

      More like, 4-7-10 split or 6-7-10 split. Good players will tend to nail those most of the time. I saw Glenn Allison (Mr. 900) nail one of those late in a 3rd game to complete an 806. I'd hit an 805 in the same center the Friday before and he was serious not to be outdone by an upstart (after he finished he walked back to me to ask me about my score too :-) ...)

    39. Re:Why do people place such a sucker bet anyway? by horza · · Score: 1

      Because Y is such a small amount that if you are slightly above average you should easily have it covered. Unless you have a rotating game, even if you play at a friends place you still have to fork out Y in alcohol, food, etc. It's only fair that you need to compensate for the rent, heating, lighting, etc. Unlike casino games where they are bound to make X-Y as time -> infinity (not true of course as the bank nearly always wins automatically by having deeper pockets), a fixed rake in poker is just like paying a bit of rent.

      Phillip.

    40. Re:Why do people place such a sucker bet anyway? by horza · · Score: 1

      I'm playing online as we speak, and only play for fun after some wine or a night out (just having a bottle of rose after watching Champions League football). I'm up a grand, though the past couple of weeks I have broken even, and I'm not particularly good.. just less impulsive than some. Down here a night out can costs hundreds of dollars. As billcopc says, spending a few bucks that lasts a few hours is great value entertainment. I make sure I play tournaments rather than cash games. First it limits your financial exposure, and second because I know people that run bot networks and make hundreds of thousands of dollars through fleecing people on major sites that you will have heard of.

      Phillip.

    41. Re:Why do people place such a sucker bet anyway? by immcintosh · · Score: 1

      There's a reply to you that's modded up, but the explanation is simpler. In any given hand, all players put X in, and essentially one player takes X * Y - Z out (Y is the number of players, Z is the house's cut), while everybody else takes nothing out (not taking folding into consideration obviously). If you can guarantee you're the person who takes X * Y out more than anybody else (by being good), then you make money. High level poker is only very partially about knowing the odds. It's much more (almost entirely) a psychological game about reading people, forcing hands, bluffing, and all that, and it's something that, believe it or not, takes skill, and that skill can pay off.

    42. Re:Why do people place such a sucker bet anyway? by S-100 · · Score: 1

      Not at all. Unless you are buying at the IPO. the money exchanged on the stock market for shares in a company don't go in or out of the company at all. At the IPO, it's not a theory - your money spent on IPO stock (less fees) goes directly into the company's coffers. The only side-effect of the current price for a public company's stock is that it affects the value (either positive or negative) of warrants.

      Trading warrants doesn't affect the company at all, but exercising a warrant does - the exercise price of the warrant goes to the company, regardless of the current value of the stock. So if you have a $5 warrant for a stock trading at $50, you can get a share of the stock by paying the company $5, or you can just trade the warrant, which has a value of $45. Out of the money warrants (e.g. warrant strike price above current stock price) are worthless, except for their speculative value.

    43. Re:Why do people place such a sucker bet anyway? by billcopc · · Score: 1

      Those hypocrisies come from the same camps that demonize homosexuality and free thought. Go figure!

      --
      -Billco, Fnarg.com
    44. Re:Why do people place such a sucker bet anyway? by void* · · Score: 1

      Your point 1 is, imho, exactly how casino gambling should be played, if you're going to play.

      If you're there for money, and not fun, you shouldn't be there. If you're walking in with money that it would bother you to not walk out with, then you shouldn't be there.

      I grew up in an area with a fair number of casinos - when I go back to visit, sometimes I'll take a set, small amount of cash (under $100), and my buddies and I will go play $5 blackjack for a few hours.

      Money runs out? No worries - I walked in the door expecting that money to run out. Take some extra money home? That's bonus. It's really no different from spending money on any other form of entertainment. As long as you enjoy it, and you're not hurting yourself financially doing it, then go for it.

      Some people wreck themselves gambling - but then again, those people are breaking the rule I outlined above - don't walk in with money it would bother you to not walk out with.

      --


      Code or be coded.
    45. Re:Why do people place such a sucker bet anyway? by Free+the+Cowards · · Score: 1

      I agree, mostly. But with games like poker (are there other ones available in casinos?) where you play against other gamblers and not against the house, it is reasonable to play for money.

      The gambler's axiom is "the house always wins", and this is why you shouldn't be there to make money with most games. Most casino games, the house's win is your loss. But it's not so with poker. With poker, the house always wins because it takes a percentage of each pot. But you can still win even while the house is winning. If you're a consistently good poker player you can very reasonably come in and make money at it. The same is not true of other casino games like slots, blackjack, or whatever else. With those, the odds are always tilted against you no matter what you do (unless you count cards or otherwise cheat). But in poker, the odds depend on how your skill compares to the other players.

      But of course you're right about all the other games. And if you don't possess good poker skills then your idea holds true for that as well.

      Disclaimer: I don't play poker, I've only read about it a bit, and I don't gamble.

      --
      If you mod me Overrated, you are admitting that you have no penis.
    46. Re:Why do people place such a sucker bet anyway? by Bill,+Shooter+of+Bul · · Score: 3, Funny

      Casinos can be tremendously entertaining for the right type of personality

      They're called addicts. I stand by my previous statement.

      --
      Well.. maybe. Or Maybe not. But Definitely not sort of.
    47. Re:Why do people place such a sucker bet anyway? by Nevyn · · Score: 1

      Theoretically with the stock market, the money you invest in the companies is used to grow the company, meaning there is a chance for everybody to win because you have helped to create wealth by letting the company become more profitable.

      At the expense of another company, whose stock must then go down as the stock you own goes up. And when you come to sell your stock, for that profit, there has to be someone who is buying at the price you are selling (minus the cost of the trade, for both of you).

      Given the last couple of weeks (or months/years), we'd probably all be better off if the mutual fund managers just got together and played poker.

      --
      ustr: Managed string API with ave. 44% overhead over strdup(), for 0-20B
    48. Re:Why do people place such a sucker bet anyway? by Free+the+Cowards · · Score: 1

      That's just plain stupid. Is everyone who drinks beer occasionally because they like it an alcoholic? No. Is everyone who enjoys going to a casino occasionally a gambling addict? No.

      --
      If you mod me Overrated, you are admitting that you have no penis.
    49. Re:Why do people place such a sucker bet anyway? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      What is a warrant? Can I buy one?

    50. Re:Why do people place such a sucker bet anyway? by andersa · · Score: 1

      Ask any pro poker player. The number one skill you need to get really good at playing poker, is to find people who are worse at the game than you are. Online pro players keep detailed statistics on every player they have ever played against, so that they can find the suckers quickly.

    51. Re:Why do people place such a sucker bet anyway? by morgan_greywolf · · Score: 1

      Aw, when did they stop doing that? The 3:2 payout is one of the attractions!

    52. Re:Why do people place such a sucker bet anyway? by tillerman35 · · Score: 1

      I call BS on this. Gambling is not "Entertainment." That's a sucker's myth perpetrated by the gambling industry. People buy into this myth because there are a LOT of very intelligent and creative people getting paid a LOT of money to hype it in every media available to them.

      If someone believes for even a second that you are being "entertained" by throwing their money away, I invite him to come to my house where I have carved a slot into the box my new refrigerator came in. Your money goes in the slot. My two-year-old will be inside and will shake his chiming apple thingy, and wave his Dora the Explorer flashlight back and forth every time he decides to give some of it back. Please, let me entertain you, suckers.

    53. Re:Why do people place such a sucker bet anyway? by Free+the+Cowards · · Score: 1

      If people enjoy it, then it's entertainment. Period.

      And people do enjoy it. Much more than they're going to enjoy your stupid refrigerator.

      Do you spend any money on entertainment ever? Pay money to a movie theater, or to rent a movie? Have you ever purchased a DVD player, a TV, a book, or a video game? How is throwing your money away on those any more justified than throwing it away in a casino?

      --
      If you mod me Overrated, you are admitting that you have no penis.
  6. Back door by RemoWilliams84 · · Score: 1

    I thought this was gonna have something to do with anal sex. I was "sorely" disappointed.

    --
    "I don't have to think. I only have to do it. The results are always perfect, but that's old news." - Meat Puppets
    1. Re:Back door by slicenglide · · Score: 2, Funny

      You, the "Back Door" and "sorely" all together in one comment. The snickers just write themselves.

      --
      John Walsh once found me while looking for some other kid. He was not amused.
    2. Re:Back door by lobiusmoop · · Score: 4, Funny

      Liquor in the front,
      Poker in the rear.

      --
      "I bless every day that I continue to live, for every day is pure profit."
    3. Re:Back door by TheMeuge · · Score: 1

      Somebody get this man a beer for the funny... or at least an mod-up...

    4. Re:Back door by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It gets better. He's "The Destroyer."

  7. as i've said before by Surt · · Score: 1

    You have to be crazy to trust the house in online poker. In physical poker, it's a lot easier to see when the house is cheating.

    --
    "Who is the Journal of Quantum Physics going to believe?" --Stephen Hawking
    1. Re:as i've said before by pushing-robot · · Score: 1
      --
      How can I believe you when you tell me what I don't want to hear?
    2. Re:as i've said before by mfh · · Score: 3, Funny

      In physical poker, it's a lot easier to see when the house is cheating.

      Because they are always cheating? :)

      --
      The dangers of knowledge trigger emotional distress in human beings.
    3. Re:as i've said before by Xiaran · · Score: 2, Insightful

      In physical poker the house has no real motivation to cheat. Poker is a nice steady winner for a casino... they just take a cut of every pot. They are however motivated to have people gamble more money at poker thus increasing the pot.

    4. Re:as i've said before by Propaganda13 · · Score: 1

      The problem is that you can't tell what the other players are doing. Are they sitting in the same room, using a chat program, talking on the phone? I know the companies have been going after programs where random strangers see each other's cards and it computes odds based on that, but unless table spots are random you can't control what people do.

    5. Re:as i've said before by bill_mcgonigle · · Score: 1

      Because they are always cheating? :)

      Las Vegas is a tax on those who though skipping the probability elective in high school was a good way to avoid extra homework.

      --
      My God, it's Full of Source!
      OUTSIDE_IP=$(dig +short my.ip @outsideip.net)
    6. Re:as i've said before by metallic · · Score: 1

      You don't play against the house in poker, you play against the other players sitting at the table. In exchange for providing a table and a dealer, the casino takes a percentage of each pot (each winning hand). Therefore, it's in their best interest to run an honest game.

      --
      Karma: Positive. Mostly effected by cowbell.
    7. Re:as i've said before by Surt · · Score: 1

      It's retroactively in their interest to run an honest game only if they get caught cheating. If they never get caught, they add the margin to the rake, and that makes it in their best interest to cheat.

      --
      "Who is the Journal of Quantum Physics going to believe?" --Stephen Hawking
    8. Re:as i've said before by immcintosh · · Score: 1

      A misconception I've seen repeatedly in this thread--that the house plays poker. Poker, unlike most other games you'll find in casinos, is played against other people, and the house only takes a cut of the total at the end. This makes it by nature VERY different from other games. The problem here is that other PLAYERS were cheating.

    9. Re:as i've said before by Surt · · Score: 1

      The house plays poker if they are fronting one of the players, and in online poker that means they can provide that player with information about the cards held by the other players. They can do this in table poker too (and if you play in a mob game, they will), but in the major casinos this is less common.

      --
      "Who is the Journal of Quantum Physics going to believe?" --Stephen Hawking
  8. Use the Front Door! by imstanny · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Backdoor? That's nothing. What if I log into a table (which seats 10 people) with 1 friend... or worse, 8 friends -- and then work as a team.

    1. Re:Use the Front Door! by RoverDaddy · · Score: 4, Informative

      In theory the online casinos have ways to catch this kind of collusion. If 8 people at a table are connecting from the same IP address, that sets off alarm bells. If the same 8 accounts keep playing together at the same table day after day, even if they're all over the world, that sets off alarms. The local game clients themselves can look for signs of screen scraping applications that might be capturing the hole cards and transmitting them to other players.

      All that said, I have no idea whether or not the online casinos are really successful at preventing outside collusion.

      --
      RETURN without GOSUB in line 1050
    2. Re:Use the Front Door! by Thelasko · · Score: 1

      What if I log into a table (which seats 10 people) with 1 friend... or worse, 8 friends -- and then work as a team.

      That would also make an effective money laundering operation.

      --
      One of our competitors trademarked the term "hypothesis". From now on, we will call them "boneheaded ideas".
    3. Re:Use the Front Door! by pete-classic · · Score: 1

      I have never played a hand of online poker in my life.

      I think you have an idea how online poker cheating is done, but the world is simply too big and too complicated a place for your preventative measures to work. (And cheating is too lucrative.)

      The only news in this story is that it was the casino employees cheating (presumably) honest players. As opposed to players cheating each other.

      -Peter

    4. Re:Use the Front Door! by venicebeach · · Score: 1

      Also, most of the sites supposedly have their software written so that they can always look back after the fact and examine the hand histories for collusion, but no one can access the hole cards while a hand is live.

    5. Re:Use the Front Door! by Derek+Loev · · Score: 4, Insightful

      That's called collusion and although it's used from time to time, the regulars pick up on it fast and the software recognizes it even faster. What people aren't understanding about online poker is that it's not the same as "placing a bet", it's a game based on mathematical probability. Online poker players have databases full of information on themselves and their opponent. Every single decision made is either positive expected value or negative, and after a while the better players learn to recognize what situations will yield a positive result. This story has been around for a few years and the real interesting part about it is the fact that it was an online community of poker players who ended up exposing it. This scandal has been developing for quite a while now and if anybody feels like getting the whole story go to the community where it all happened. There's real interesting reading there and I'm surprised it has gone unnoticed on Slashdot as long as it has.

    6. Re:Use the Front Door! by garett_spencley · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Those methods you mentioned don't seem like they'd be all that fool proof. A team can easily communicate via skype, IRC, IM or even old fashioned telephone (so you don't need to use screen scrapers). There's easy ways to get around always having the same IP (Internet cafe, Wifi, dial-up, proxies etc.) As for the same accounts playing at the same table all the time it seems like it's a matter of having a large enough team, decent record keeping to keep track of who won what and many accounts. If organized teams have ripped off Casinos in Vegas (the MIT blackjack team comes to mind) then surely online casinos get hit all the time and don't know.

      Of course being someone who has never once gambled online and thinking along those lines, it wouldn't surprise me to learn that they've got all kinds of ways to counter it.

    7. Re:Use the Front Door! by megamerican · · Score: 1

      My brother and a few friends have done something similar at card clubs. They had a rather simple system of signals to let each other know what hand you had or were drawing for (i.e. "i have top pair" or "i'm drawing for a straight"). It involved holding your chip(s) in a certain fashion. It was a simple way to make sure that they weren't taking each others money.

      --
      If you have something that you dont want anyone to know, maybe you shouldnt be doing it in the first place -Eric Schmidt
    8. Re:Use the Front Door! by greg1104 · · Score: 2

      If you do that often enough, the software running the site should pick up the collusion and kick you out. Quoth wikipedia on poker cheating: "online poker cardrooms keep records of every hand played, and collusion can often be detected by finding any of several detectable patterns (such as folding good hands to a small bet, as it is known that another player has a better hand)". I expect any poker site I play at is using software to check for basic cheating like that, but of course the same sort of incompetent corporate mindset that leads to regular reports of companies losing massive numbers of credit cards also applies here.

      I personally keep my own stats with Poker Tracker, and it's not unusual for players who do that to report suspected cheaters to the site themselves as well. Many people carefully scrutinize every hand they lose looking for patterns like those that pop up in collusion. If Alice and Bob regularly play at the same table but never end up at a river showdown against one another, that's really suspicious.

    9. Re:Use the Front Door! by suggsjc · · Score: 4, Insightful

      If organized teams have ripped off Casinos in Vegas (the MIT blackjack team comes to mind) then surely online casinos get hit all the time and don't know.

      You are missing the point. In poker games where players are not competing directly against the house but against other players and the house just charges a small percentage of the overall pot as a fee to play their game, they aren't actually stealing money from the house but the other players seated at the table. So, while the sites want to assure you that there are not any "back doors" they actually don't lose money directly from them, only indirectly if they end up losing aggregate business as a result of people not gambling due to mistrust.

      --
      When I have a kid, I want to put him in one of those strollers for twins and then run around the mall looking frantic.
    10. Re:Use the Front Door! by btellier · · Score: 1

      I read the link but I don't understand why you're attempting to soothe the minds of Slashdot readers with this information. The fact is, all major online poker sites CAN detect cheating based on mathematical probability analysis, but evidently many DO NOT admit to the cheating they detect. Even if the players eventually catch on, and even if they report a username, cheating is clearly still possible if the site itself doesn't want to risk player confidence by fessing up.

    11. Re:Use the Front Door! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      if anybody feels like getting the whole story go to

      damn you! there goes the rest of the day...

    12. Re:Use the Front Door! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Indeed, the house makes money from a small *capped* percentage of the pot. Thus, the house has a huge incentive to make games play as fast as possible (more pots). Now, since bots are faster than humans, there must be some percentage of tables where it's in their best interest that bots are playing. Of course, it's a balance between grinding the most dough out of the sucker noobs and getting the fastest play.

      Anyway, as far as anti-anti-collusion techniques:

      1. Isolate multiple the poker clients in VMs.
      2. Tunnel their connections through various proxies.
      3. Scrap the screens from the host machine
      4. Collude
      5. Profit

    13. Re:Use the Front Door! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      That's not quite true.

      Collusion is usually spotted using betting patterns that defy logic and stats. If I raise $500 and you call with a crappy hand... that's bad play. If you then bet $2 and I fold? Well... maybe the hand scared me quite a bit. But if plays like that happen more than a couple times? Collusion.

      Why do casinos want to prevent collusion? Because plays like that are dead obvious to us players... and we don't like it. If it doesn't get dealt with, then we get pretty ticked, and move to a different site... and that means less rake.

    14. Re:Use the Front Door! by HappyDrgn · · Score: 0

      The only online poker app I've used was pokerstars. They won't allow two computers with the same IP address to even log on, let alone play at the same table.

    15. Re:Use the Front Door! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      At a low stakes table, the winner might see $5.00 - $20.00 per hr for his efforts. Doesn't split very prfitably between 8 players.

      At a high stakes table, you would be identified very quickly by the skilled players at the table. If any actually played at at all, after observing the eight players waste their time (and give the house its cut) for an hour.

    16. Re:Use the Front Door! by Main+Gauche · · Score: 1

      Backdoor? That's nothing. What if I log into a table (which seats 10 people) with 1 friend... or worse, 8 friends -- and then work as a team.

      Others have mentioned how easy it is to spot this. What they haven't mentioned is that this kind of collusion is generally overrated by non-poker players. Comparing multiplayer collusion to a situation where you can see your opponents' hole cards is laughable. The latter is a license to print money. OTOH most people still couldn't beat the rake with the former, unless they were good enough to do so without cheating.

    17. Re:Use the Front Door! by d0cu · · Score: 0

      All pokerrooms (online and landbased) have methods to fight collusion. One might be able to collude in smaller stakes game for some time, but: as longer they collude & higher (as opponents are more observant) they move the probability they'll be caught increases significantly.

    18. Re:Use the Front Door! by j-beda · · Score: 1
      I just thought this up, so maybe it has huge holes in it.

      What if you just find four or five people of similar skill level who decide to always play together and equally share their winnings and expenses? If they are all reasonably skilled, wouldn't their "team" tend to win more often than the other one or two players at the table, even without an collusion beyond the after-game profit sharing? I guess the effectiveness of this is limited by an inability to pool resources while in the game, but might the "luck" part of the game favour their team having four or five hands compared to the single hands of their opponents? Or is the house take large enough that in order to make a profit you need to compete against enough other independent agents that there is enough of their money for the house and you as well?

    19. Re:Use the Front Door! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      There's real interesting reading there and I'm surprised it has gone unnoticed on Slashdot as long as it has.

      It hasn't

      Tracking Online Cheaters in Poker

  9. No James deGriz by pluther · · Score: 3, Insightful

    They played under the same accounts over and over for four years??

    It's like they were begging to be caught.

    In the words of the Stainless Steel Rat, "Learn to graft and walk away and live to graft another day."

    --
    If the masses can keep you down, you're not the Ubermensch.
    1. Re:No James deGriz by jandrese · · Score: 2, Insightful

      The article is very weird. First it goes and talks about how the people on the forum were able to track a single account making ridiculously good bets well outside of what chance would suggest is probable, then in the next paragraph it talks about how the perpetrators were creating hundreds of fake accounts and swapping them out constantly to avoid exactly that sort of analysis. The depressing thing is that the take away lesson from the article is: If you have a surefire way to cheat at poker, make sure you do it slowly enough to stay in the statistical noise and don't get too greedy. My suspicion is that this sort of cheating is far more rampant than the industry would like to admit, but most of the people who do it are smart enough to stay under the radar. Gambling online is an even surer way of losing your money than gambling at a casino.

      --

      I read the internet for the articles.
    2. Re:No James deGriz by venicebeach · · Score: 2, Informative

      There were not hundreds of accounts, but there were several.

      Some of them were identified by anomalous statistics, but some were caught by following the money transfers among accounts. At some point a "good samaritan" from inside the company posted some transfer histories to the forum where this was being investigated, which allowed some of the dots to be connected.

    3. Re:No James deGriz by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      My suspicion is that this sort of cheating is far more rampant than the industry would like to admit, but most of the people who do it are smart enough to stay under the radar. Gambling online is an even surer way of losing your money than gambling at a casino.

      Care to back this up with anything beyond ignorance? The very community that found these cheats are also filled with the same people who log millions (yes millions) of poker hands/year collectively as their sole income. This is an isolated incident, many players got their money back. DOes the industry need better checks and balances. Yes. But if you're really worried about being cheated you better pull out of the American stock market and/or real estate. Playing poker online should be the least of your concerns when it comes to being cheated. It's very unlikely and in order to be undetectable requires an inside job like this one. Oh, and it would take a couple dozen lines of code for sites to protect agaist this type of cheating as well. Absolute/UB were completely negligent and should not be trusted (again, just like the US financial system).

    4. Re:No James deGriz by jandrese · · Score: 1

      Ultimately, they were only able to nail the guy because someone on the inside (probably) helped them. Had that not occurred it might never have happened. And they were doing this in the most blatant manner possible for years before they were caught. This does not inspire confidence.

      --

      I read the internet for the articles.
  10. 'insider knowledge' by B5_geek · · Score: 5, Interesting

    This cheat required somebody on the 'inside' to perpetrate. As with most casino table games, if you have somebody on the inside, cheating is easy.

    This is how I cheated at various online poker sites. Me and two buddies would join a table, and have a VNC connection setup to view each others hands. two of us would play dummy hands based on whom had the best hand of the bunch. We cleaned out every table we played at.

    --
    "The price good men pay for indifference to public affairs is to be ruled by evil men." ~Plato (427-347 BC)
    1. Re:'insider knowledge' by ivan256 · · Score: 2, Insightful

      This is why I don't play poker online.

      Doing exactly this is so easy that you have to assume at least half the table is doing it.

      At least at a casino you have a chance of noticing a cheater.

    2. Re:'insider knowledge' by HEbGb · · Score: 3, Insightful

      That's so obvious, I'm stunned that anyone would play if this were possible. They don't have a way to prevent collusion, such as randomly assigning tables?

    3. Re:'insider knowledge' by mvicuna · · Score: 5, Insightful

      If you played at any of the levels where the pros inhabited you'd have been identified and banned quickly.

      Most of the online pro's are using tracking software and doing analysis which would have picked up on you three. Though I hardly doubt they'd have needed it, the math involved in poker is only part of being a winning player.

      2+2, where most of the collaboration is done, is the /. of the poker world. A lot of Statistical anomalies are discussed and investigated there.

      Show of hands if anyone knows about the DERB thread?

    4. Re:'insider knowledge' by Hokie06 · · Score: 1

      Yeah that is precisely why I never played online poker for really money. Way too easy for a group players to cheat.

      Hell get a couple seperate internet connections running to different computers and you don't even need a group people. Just a few low end computers next to each other.

      --
      Kilroy was here.
    5. Re:'insider knowledge' by pete-classic · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Am I to understand that you just admitted to engaging in Federal wire fraud in a public forum? That's quite a gamble, sir!

      -Peter

    6. Re:'insider knowledge' by mikael · · Score: 1, Funny

      That might not help. If the game were an online 3D Poker game, it would be possible to modify the transparency of the different textures so that the face down cards could become visible (just disable backface culling and make the texture of the back of the card transparent).

      --
      Vintage computer adverts: http://www.vintageadbrowser.com/computers-and-software-ads
    7. Re:'insider knowledge' by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      two of us would play dummy hands based on whom had the best hand of the bunch. We cleaned out every table we played at.

      I actually have a really hard time believing that you "cleaned out every table you played on". On the surface level collusion seems foolproof, but to anyone who seriously knows poker, they realize when people collude they will run into several situations were you will end up loosing twice as more than if you werent colluding and also when people catch on that two people are colluding they will exploit you.

      Also if you actually cleaned up you wouldnt be here you would be playing 24/7 and making billions.

    8. Re:'insider knowledge' by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      If I coded it, a face down card doesn't have a face on the other side long before it hit the graphics libraries.

    9. Re:'insider knowledge' by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      That might not help. If the game were an online 3D Poker game, it would be possible to modify the transparency of the different textures so that the face down cards could become visible (just disable backface culling and make the texture of the back of the card transparent).

      Uh...why would they render the other side of the card?

    10. Re:'insider knowledge' by idontgno · · Score: 2, Informative

      The same reason wallhacking worked in FPSs: Game logic offloads opaque-object obscuration to graphics drivers and hardware.

      That said, was there a 3-d online poker game which would be susceptible to wallhacking? Sounds pretty hypothetical to me.

      --
      Welcome to the Panopticon. Used to be a prison, now it's your home.
    11. Re:'insider knowledge' by Schnapple · · Score: 1

      You could just call your buddies on the phone then...

    12. Re:'insider knowledge' by MaxwellEdison · · Score: 1

      I prefer the term colludling. Its like canoodling, but with a sinister intent.

      --
      -=Bang Bang=-
    13. Re:'insider knowledge' by bill_kress · · Score: 1

      Anyone who would play these things had better be doing it for fun or cheating, because there is no way to prevent cheating when that much money is at stake.

      It's kinda so obvious that I'm shocked anyone plays. Guess there is one born every second.

    14. Re:'insider knowledge' by Otto · · Score: 1

      Whether it is 3D or not has nothing to do with it.

      A properly coded multi-computer poker game would not send information about the face down cards from the server to the client AT ALL.

      So it wouldn't be a matter of not rendering the backface, it would be a matter of you can't render the card if you have no idea what it is.

      Of course, much software is improperly written, I grant you.

      --
      - Give a man a fire and he's warm for a day, but set him on fire and he's warm for the rest of his life.
    15. Re:'insider knowledge' by kestasjk · · Score: 1

      Congratulations, you're a cheating sack of shit.

      Next time why not just grab someone's handbag? You should at least have the balls to look at the person you're stealing money from

      --
      // MD_Update(&m,buf,j);
    16. Re:'insider knowledge' by Karganeth · · Score: 2, Interesting

      What utter bullshit. This is online poker we're talking about. The term cleaning out tables isn't used online because players will simply bring more chips to the table (very easy to do - it can be automatic) or the player will leave and someone else will join which makes me think you're not familiar with online poker. Besides, even if you were colluding with two friends it's not possible to "clean out every table [you] played at" unless you were running like god. On top of that, you would have also been caught not only by the regs, but by the software too.

      Reading your post makes me angry. There's already enough misinformation about online poker. Why lie about cheating online? Do you want attention? If it's the second case then you have succeeded thanks to the ignorance of many slashdot members of what online poker is actually like. Cheating is NOT rife. It is possible to win consistently at poker. It's possible to make a good living from online poker and many people do.

    17. Re:'insider knowledge' by SL+Baur · · Score: 1

      If you played at any of the levels where the pros inhabited you'd have been identified and banned quickly.

      I have a question. One way brick & mortar casinos detect cheating is to video tape everything and have live people watching the play through a one-way ceiling.

      Would it be an effective anti-cheat to do the same thing online? Require the client player's physical screens to be displayed in real time at the online "casino"?

      Would they need the resources of a Google to do that? I have no idea what the level of participation is, but I would think that folks in high stakes games would welcome additional security to ensure they were playing in a fair game.

    18. Re:'insider knowledge' by ZERO1ZERO · · Score: 2, Insightful

      ugh pointless? Just set up a second PC for communication and 'film' the screen of the main PC. Hell, just sit in the same location as your buddy.

    19. Re:'insider knowledge' by nedlohs · · Score: 1

      At least online you can play head up without any wait.

    20. Re:'insider knowledge' by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      what you did there is very common in online poker sadly and yes it is VERY easy to spot. I have reported quite a few players for it in the past. I used to play a lot of online poker (and did pretty well at it), but as it has become increasingly popular it has also increased the cheating and collusion going on. I now only play in live money and tournament games, where collusion is even easier to spot and the penalties for it applied instantly rather than hours or days later when and if the online company decides there is enough evidience.

    21. Re:'insider knowledge' by l0cust · · Score: 1

      pkr? Although I agree that it would be ridiculous to actually render the other side of the card when it is kept face down in a poker game.

      --
      Politicians and Pedophiles: Two groups of exploitive bastards who are most dangerous when they're thinking of children.
    22. Re:'insider knowledge' by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Yes, but doesn't this mean that if they decide to be a little less greedy and control their winning levels to be within the statistical margin of error, they'll win more slowly but under the "radar" and still be able to bias the system in their favor?

    23. Re:'insider knowledge' by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Why share with two buddies?

      All you need is 3 computers and a switch to get 3 unique IP address, and then you see 3 full hands at each table.
      You can also use the two 'dummy' accounts to do things like drawing the other players into the pot just so you can fold out and let the master take it, etc.

      If you are actually using real money on an online poker game (and playing by the rules) you really need to have your head checked.

  11. This just in... by rehtonAesoohC · · Score: 1

    I'm amazed that people are surprised that an online gambling site has something fraudulent about it...

    Maybe I'm being archaic here, but plain 'ol gambling seems sketchy enough as it is. When you take that online and you aren't even rolling real dice or shuffling real cards, can you really expect to have fair and truly random experiences?

    Now I think the people who perpetrated this scam are scum, but it really seems to me that the players who got ripped off shouldn't have been gambling online in the first place.

    1. Re:This just in... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I'm flabbergasted that you are amazed that people are surprised.

    2. Re:This just in... by HeadlessNotAHorseman · · Score: 1

      I'm astonished that you're amazed that people are surprised that an online gambling site has something fraudulent about it...

      Witness my highly scientific analysis that proves how unintelligent people are. I googled "idiots" and got 28,600,000 results. I googled "smart people" and got only 5,660,000 results. Now I'm sure if you try *really* hard you'll probably be able to find some minor problem with my scientific method and try to use that to invalidate the entire result. But that strikes me as the act of a desperate person clutching at straws to try and maintain a weak hold on their beliefs in the face of overwhelming evidence. You're not that kind of person are you?

      --
      I like my coffee the way I like my women - roasted and ground up into little tiny pieces.
  12. That's what you get in Kahnawake... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Interesting

    For those who don't know, Kahnawake is Mohawk territory claimed by the aboriginals (aka Indians) in Canada.

    The Mohawks claim to sovereignty over the land, and do not allow the provincial & national police to enter.

    To avoid stirring up trouble, the Canadian government usually doesn't send police to Kahnawake, even though the Canadian government doesn't recognize the Mohawk claim to exclusive sovereignty.

    Without any real police force, crime flourishes in Kahnawake. Drug smuggling, gun smuggling, people smuggling, cigarette smuggling, you name it.

    Don't trust any business in Kahnawake, let alone a business attractive to crime, like gambling.

    Not long ago, there was a Mohawk criminal driving at high speed (off-reserve) trying to get to the Mohawk territory before getting caught by the police chasing him. He made it on to the Mohawk territory, and the police abandoned their pursuit. Sadly, the Mohawk driver ran a stop sign and killed a Mohawk teenager.

    For the people of Kahnawake, it seems that it is more important to be the victims of aboriginal criminals than to cooperate with non-aboriginal law enforcement. Sad.

    1. Re:That's what you get in Kahnawake... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Interesting

      many american indian reservations are about the same. i know because i grew up on one.

    2. Re:That's what you get in Kahnawake... by HEbGb · · Score: 0

      Untrue. Reservations on the US are just as subject to federal law as anywhere else.

    3. Re:That's what you get in Kahnawake... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      So, in other words, this reservation is like certain parts of Compton?

    4. Re:That's what you get in Kahnawake... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Interesting

      Thank you for that insightful and objective account of life on the Kahnawake reservation. Are you really basing your scorn

      At no point did I blame the Mohawks for their current predicament, as there is a long history that has resulted in the current situation. Being deprived of their land, liberty and economic opportunity by the government is the main reason for the sad state of most aboriginals.

      for a population because they asserted that outside police do not have authority on their land?

      The Mohawks claim that provincial and federal police have no authority on their land. The province & federal government claim otherwise. I think it would be better for all concerned if this was finalized one way or the other. Part of the problem is being in law enforcement limbo.

      Like any community, some Mohawks commit crime. But the lack of an effective police force (the Mohawk peacekeepers don't qualify) means that the decent people (which are the vast majority) of Kahnawake suffer. And if the decent people turn to the provincial or federal police for help, they aren't likely to get any.

      It's no wonder that it's near impossible to start a business on a reservation when anonymous cowards spread the word that everyone there is untrustworthy.

      It certainly isn't all of them, but it is a large number of Kahnawake businesses. More importantly, you will be unable to turn to the courts & the conventional police if things go wrong.

      Also note that this is just Kahnawake, and not all aboriginal reserves. Many aboriginal reserves are great places to do business - less tax, less regulation and a motivated workforce.

    5. Re:That's what you get in Kahnawake... by Phroggy · · Score: 1

      Thank you for that insightful and objective account of life on the Kahnawake reservation. Are you really basing your scorn for a population because they asserted that outside police do not have authority on their land? It's no wonder that it's near impossible to start a business on a reservation when anonymous cowards spread the word that everyone there is untrustworthy. Conflicts between the Mohawks and US/CN law enforcement, on both sides of the border, are nothing new, but they have little to do with the larger problems facing the people that result in crime, not cause it.

      Sensible governments set up agreements with their neighbors to allow for cooperation in law enforcement. If I'm being chased by the Oregon State Police, you can bet they won't let me off the hook just because I manage to cross the bridge into Vancouver. If the Mohawk people don't require their government to act sensibly, then yeah, they deserve some scorn.

      --
      $x='S24;r)>63/* h@<5+oZ)32"5cz';$me='phroggy'x$];
      $x=~y+ -xz+\0-Tx+;print$_^chop$me for split'',$x;
    6. Re:That's what you get in Kahnawake... by dosymedia · · Score: 0

      Do you feel AC provided enough background information for us to make the conclusion that the Mohawks deserve some scorn? I found his account too sweeping in generalization. And do you feel that the US government (who also deal with indian sovereign territory issues) is sensible? What is the standard for a sensible government? I'm not here to defend drunk Mohawk human traffickers (apparently they run the show on that reservation), just can't get past the implications of what you're saying.

    7. Re:That's what you get in Kahnawake... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I'd agree with this statement and if you are the original AC, your first post as well. I have worked in government. Met or spoke to a few Aboriginal community leaders. There are some really great people trying to make a substantial difference in their community - with or w/o government help. It only takes a few bad apples to spoil the whole damn bunch. What's worse is that if there enough really bad people or involvement of larger organizations (organized crime for instance) its nearly impossible to fix the problems.

    8. Re:That's what you get in Kahnawake... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Still carrying the white man's burden?

    9. Re:That's what you get in Kahnawake... by dave420 · · Score: 1

      I think you'll find it's more important to them to hang on to the last shreds of their cultural identity than co-operate with non-aboriginal law enforcement. Which seems fair enough to me. Of course, you're probably a non-Indian fella in Canada, so you won't understand. Your culture is everywhere.

    10. Re:That's what you get in Kahnawake... by Imsdal · · Score: 1

      If you are being chased by Oregon State Police and manage to drive all across Washington and into Canada, I think you deserve to get away.

    11. Re:That's what you get in Kahnawake... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I think you'll find it's more important to them to hang on to the last shreds of their cultural identity than co-operate with non-aboriginal law enforcement. Which seems fair enough to me. Of course, you're probably a non-Indian fella in Canada, so you won't understand. Your culture is everywhere.

      While I may be a non-Indian fella in Canada, my culture (Romanian) is not everywhere. Us white people may look alike, but we are very different.

    12. Re:That's what you get in Kahnawake... by Phroggy · · Score: 1

      I meant Vancouver Washington, just across the Columbia River from Portland. Oregon State Police would call Washington State Patrol or Vancouver PD or whoever else they need to call to continue the chase, and continue pursuit in the mean time. The same would happen in the other direction. Why? Not because they have jurisdiction, but because they have cooperative agreements with their counterparts across the border.

      A high-speed chase across the US-Canada border is rather less trivial, but if there's somewhere it could happen without running into border guards and barricades and whatnot, I'm sure the police on the American side could call the RCMP, and coming the other direction the Canadians could call either state police or the FBI depending on the situation.

      --
      $x='S24;r)>63/* h@<5+oZ)32"5cz';$me='phroggy'x$];
      $x=~y+ -xz+\0-Tx+;print$_^chop$me for split'',$x;
  13. Shocker by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    If you've ever played UB, you'd not be the least bit surprised.

  14. Well, now they've gone and done it by Alzheimers · · Score: 1

    Now that these online gambling sites have been proven as havens for cheaters, our innocence has been broken and our trust that anonymous strangers on the internet would play games of chance for money in a purely ethical and fair manner has been shattered.

    For shame!

  15. Strict client/server separation was missing by compumike · · Score: 4, Insightful

    From what I gather from the articles, they didn't actually write any code that tapped into the server... it was just getting information from the client app that was residing in memory but was not displayed to the screen.

    This is just an enormous case study suggesting why strict client/server separation is essential, and that clients only get the information on a "need to know" basis.

    Isn't this a fairly standard design practice? How did this happen?

    --
    Hey code monkey... learn electronics! Powerful microcontroller kits for the digital generation.

    1. Re:Strict client/server separation was missing by FranTaylor · · Score: 1

      Ha ha ha if you think the online poker folks are going to release their source code so that we can see if these steps are being taken.

    2. Re:Strict client/server separation was missing by mapsjanhere · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Isn't this a fairly standard design practice? How did this happen?

      --

      The background story to all this is highly fascinating - there are a series of companies of everchanging names involved, that first wrote the software, then sold it to a gambling company, that then got taken over, and somehow always the same names show up. This backdoor was probably planted long ago for just the purpose it ended up being used.
      As for "oversight", the gambling commission oversees one major operation - the online poker sites. Which also pays their bills.

      --
      I'm aging rapidly, I bought a new game and had no idea if my machine was good for it.
    3. Re:Strict client/server separation was missing by jandrese · · Score: 1

      There are two possibilities:
      1. It was set up like that on purpose because the programmer wanted to write a version of the app that let him cheat.
      2. Plain old incompetence.

      I don't know which one this is, but I wouldn't be surprised if it was the second. The other thing I wouldn't be surprised about is if the link wasn't encrypted, or had a flaw in the encryption, that allowed someone with a packet sniffer near the server to watch each hand as it went out.

      --

      I read the internet for the articles.
    4. Re:Strict client/server separation was missing by Chris+Pimlott · · Score: 1

      From what I gather from the articles, they didn't actually write any code that tapped into the server... it was just getting information from the client app that was residing in memory but was not displayed to the screen.

      On what basis did you draw this conclusion? I didn't see anything in the articles that suggested this. The only detail about the exploit given was that it involved the assistance of a former employee, which to me suggests someone had planted a backdoor on the server. But that's just my supposition, they really don't give enough detail. Unless I missed something?

    5. Re:Strict client/server separation was missing by svnt · · Score: 1
      From the forum sticky listed in one of the articles:

      The fraudulent activity was enabled by unauthorized software code that allowed the perpetrators to obtain hole card information during live play. [...] Our investigation has confirmed that the code was part of a legacy auditing system that was manipulated by the perpetrators."

      It looks like the cheaters had a separate connection to the auditing app that showed them hole cards. I don't think the stock client app had access to extra hole card information.

    6. Re:Strict client/server separation was missing by Otto · · Score: 1

      What actually happened:

      The software has the ability to watch tables as an "observer". Observers can't view hole cards, normally.

      However, a superuser account can log in as an observer and watch all the cards. They can't PLAY this way, in a hat tip to try to prevent cheating, but still, they can see a table play with all the cards visible.

      So, somebody on the inside did just this, then relayed the information to somebody else who was playing. That player then, of course, played perfectly, for every hand in one of their tournaments.

      --
      - Give a man a fire and he's warm for a day, but set him on fire and he's warm for the rest of his life.
    7. Re:Strict client/server separation was missing by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      From what I gather from the articles, they didn't actually write any code that tapped into the server... it was just getting information from the client app that was residing in memory but was not displayed to the screen.

      Re-read the articles (you might need to follow some links), the server side auditing software stores all hand data (probably a bad idea but nothing so blatant as sending the opposition hole cards to the client) and was modified so that this information became available to some parties (called super-users in the articles) while the hand was being played.

  16. your signature Re:This just in... by damn_registrars · · Score: 1

    Play WAR? [warct.com]

    Was a little ambiguous when talking about card games. Though I'm not sure that playing war (the card game) would really be worthwhile online from a gambler's perspective...

    --
    Damn_registrars has no butt-hole. Damn_registrars has no use for a butt-hole.
  17. simple rule: by circletimessquare · · Score: 1

    there is no technological security fix made by a man that cannot also be broken by a man

    all you need is enough incentive

    given that realization, and the boundless financial incentive implicit in onliner poker played for real money, it should rapidly dawn on you that there is no such thing as an online poker game played for money that cannot be fixed, and probably is fixed, if you are pumping real money into it

    playing online poker is really foolish. its an arms race between exploitation and security, and the incentives are just way too high to exploit

    --
    intellectual property law is philosophically incoherent. it is your moral duty to ignore it or sabotage it
    1. Re:simple rule: by evilviper · · Score: 1

      there is no technological security fix made by a man that cannot also be broken by a man

      Computers are math machines. Math can be proven to be 100% factually correct.

      The only problem with computer security is that the systems are too complex to go through every line systematically to verify and ensure 100% correctness.

      Of course your statement was pretty vague, so you could be talking about physical security, or any number of other unrelated issues.

      --
      Slashdot gets worse every day... Pipedot: News for nerds, without the corporate slant
    2. Re:simple rule: by myowntrueself · · Score: 1

      Math can be proven to be 100% factually correct.

      Look up Godel. Famous mathematician and logician. Especially famous for his 'incompleteness theorem'.

      --
      In the free world the media isn't government run; the government is media run.
  18. A fool and his money... by wcrowe · · Score: 1

    This illustrates why online gambling is so @#$%ing stupid. How can you possibly be sure the game is honest?

    --
    Proverbs 21:19
    1. Re:A fool and his money... by HappyDrgn · · Score: 1

      This illustrates why online gambling is so @#$%ing stupid. How can you possibly be sure the game is honest?

      By making it legal and regulating it the same way the Nevada Gaming Commission all the electronic gambling machines in Vegas. This whole thing happened partly because of no oversight, sense it's illegal and had no regulation.

  19. The real news is finding the hacker not the hack. by jellomizer · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Yea, Yea the found a hack and they exploited it... Big Whoop, that not news. The real news is that Online Gambling Industry is starting to use Decision Support Systems and other Business Intelligence methods for finding the cheaters...

    Most companies are pathetic with incorporating Business Intelligence into their infrastructure. They collect the data and do nothing with it. Most IT people don't care about doing anything with it. It is quite sad.

    --
    If something is so important that you feel the need to post it on the internet... It probably isn't that important.
  20. superuser by erbbysam · · Score: 5, Informative

    o my....story time...
    The phrase of the day is "superuser"
    This data was given to many professional online poker players who analyzed the data in late 2007 (see 1 year ago, 10/16/07 to be exact) when they requested the data from the online site "Absolute Poker".

    Instead of the site giving them the usual data which hid the opponents cards unless they had shown them during the hand, they sent all the raw data which included the opponents hole cards, and specifically every player and spectators player number. One of the spectators was player number "363" I believe which was incredibly low (one of the first ever to register on the site).

    When designing the software they must have used several "superuser" accounts to make sure that it was working correctly, so they let it see all the cards on the table. Someone inside Absolute Bet discovered(or knew they entire time) that the loophole was still open and used multiple accounts to siphon hundreds of thousands if not millions of dollars off of their high stakes users. This was used also over other websites running the same backend software.

    What made this so obvious, simply put, to the high stakes players was that these players were playing perfectly over thousands of hands which isn't possible unless you know all the cards on the table.

    For more reading see:
    http://freakonomics.blogs.nytimes.com/2007/10/17/the-absolute-poker-cheating-scandal-blown-wide-open/
    or for more poker talk:
    http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Number=12523924&page=0&fpart=1&vc=1

    1. Re:superuser by erbbysam · · Score: 3, Informative

      another link, better link for more 2+2 information:
      http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/29/news-views-gossip/ub-scandal-sticky-251207/
      (found through the msnbc page)

    2. Re:superuser by jonadab · · Score: 0, Flamebait

      Yeah, but there's an easier way to know.

      It's poker. Therefore, somebody was cheating, or at least trying to cheat. QED.

      Where there's poker, there's always cheating. Sometimes it's not very sophisticated (e.g., table talk of the "I have the card he wants you to think he's got" variety), and sometimes it's more involved, but there's always cheating. Cheaters are drawn to poker like insects to electric lights.

      --
      Cut that out, or I will ship you to Norilsk in a box.
    3. Re:superuser by commodoresloat · · Score: 1

      One of the spectators was player number "363" I believe which was incredibly low (one of the first ever to register on the site).

      For particularly high values of "first"? Or particularly low values of "363"?

    4. Re:superuser by Nonesuch · · Score: 1

      Seeing player number 363 spectating at your game is like seeing Slashdot UID 363 replying to your post -- You know that guy isn't Cmdr Taco, but chances are it is a friend-of-a-friend of one of the founders. (Says the guy with UID 90,847)

    5. Re:superuser by zobier · · Score: 1

      I wouldn't be surprised if quite a few UIDs got used up in QA/UAT and not reset afterwards.

      But talk about dumb criminals.

      I know, *chortle*, let's win every game.

      facepalm.jpg

      --
      Me lost me cookie at the disco.
  21. Wow. by Spy+der+Mann · · Score: 1

    This actually surprises me. I thought cheating for the House was 100% LEGAL. Turns out it's not.

    In any case, my trust in gambling sites isn't any greater than my trust in Diebold voting machines.

    1. Re:Wow. by JesseMcDonald · · Score: 1

      It's legal for the rules of the game to give the house an advantage. However, the house must play by the rules; doing otherwise would be fraudulent.

      --
      "The state is that great fiction by which everyone tries to live at the expense of everyone else." - Bastiat
  22. Surprised? by MarkvW · · Score: 3, Funny

    I am shocked, SHOCKED, to learn that there is cheating occurring in online poker!
    Round up the usual suspects . . .

    1. Re:Surprised? by spruce · · Score: 1

      Really, what the deuce? We need to get our ace detectives on this!

    2. Re:Surprised? by MarkvW · · Score: 1

      Yes, indeed.
      Sam Spade is just the man!

    3. Re:Surprised? by stefancaunter · · Score: 1

      Your winnings, sir ...

    4. Re:Surprised? by Joe+the+Lesser · · Score: 1

      I play online poker for the ethical behavior.

      I was misinformed.

      --
      "I only speak the truth"
      Karma: null(Mostly affected by an unassigned variable)
  23. There are good cryptographic solutions by spacedrive4000 · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Ron Rivest and others have built many good systems for creating secure online poker games. It's possible to deal the cards in a way that the server can't eavesdrop. Now, of course, these can't do anything about n-1 people at the table working together through outside channels. And a good algorithm can still be defeated by bugs in the client software. But the point is that there are good algorithms out there.

    1. Re:There are good cryptographic solutions by peterwayner · · Score: 4, Informative

      Indeed there are. I wrote a book on this:

      Policing Online Games

      It's far from the last word.

      For more information:

      http://www.wayner.org/books/pog/

      To look up on Amazon:

      http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0967584426/myhomepage0bc

    2. Re:There are good cryptographic solutions by TheIzzy · · Score: 1

      The premise of your book is interesting. I will, however, not buy it because your publisher has not let people search inside the book. At the very least I should be able to see the table of contents and verify that the content of the book is what I'm expecting.

    3. Re:There are good cryptographic solutions by peterwayner · · Score: 1

      1) If you click through to the site supporting the book, you'll see a table of contents and an FAQ:

      http://www.wayner.org/books/pog/

      2) Search inside the book is a bad solution for anyone who writes a book that might be used as a reference. I regularly find that Google or Amazon lets me read 10-20 pages of a book and get everything I need.

      One day there might a solution that lets us sell books by the page, but that has its own problems.

      In general, an information transaction can't be reversed like the purchase of a car. You can't return the information and say, "Gosh, it's not exactly what I wanted." Even if you try desperately to get something out of your brain, it's nearly impossible. Try not to think of bananas. Try really, really hard not to think of bananas. Did you succeed?

      The book is very cheap in the scheme of things. It's far from perfect--I can enumerate a number of flaws-- but it would take you more than $30 of your time to reassemble the same information. Even at minimum wage. I dare say it's a good deal for a peasant making $1/day.

      3) Feel free to write me with any questions. p3 aaattt wayner.org.

    4. Re:There are good cryptographic solutions by HarvardAce · · Score: 1

      The problem is that the cards are dealt. Yes, you can make it such that the next card dealt isn't known (so, for instance, even the server wouldn't know what the flop was going to be before it was dealt). What it *does* know, however, is what every player has been dealt as their two hole cards. If you knew exactly what everyone else had, you would be able to play the odds perfectly. Sure, you might get beat every once in a while on a 2% chance for the card the opponent needs hitting the river, but you would know the exact odds of you winning each hand and could bet accordingly. The best poker players in a legitimate game will estimate the odds of you winning, based on what they have and what they expect you to have, and a good day for them is winning about 2-3% of the big blind bet per hand on average.

      --
      Note to self: Stop putting jokes in my insightful comments so I can get something other than +1 Funny!
  24. Re:your signature Re:This just in... by rehtonAesoohC · · Score: 1

    Well it's a little bit better than saying "Play Warhammer Online: Age of Reckoning?"

    =P

  25. How casinos make money by davidwr · · Score: 1

    Casinos make money on the large number of bets.

    On any given bet, there's a pretty good chance, maybe 49.5% on a "good for the gambler" bet, that they'll lose.

    However, on 1,000 same-sized bets, the odds are very small that they'll lose overall. On a million same-sized bets, it's practically certain they'll make close to the "expected return." On a bet that keeps only 1% for the house, 99 times out of a hundred that's still a million bucks for every 10,000,000 $1 bets, give or take a few thousand. 99.999+ times out of a hundred, it's still at least breaking even for the house.

    By the way, I made these numbers up. The actual numbers are probably pretty close.

    --
    Knowledge is how to play a game, intelligence is how to win, wisdom is knowing what game to play.
    1. Re:How casinos make money by iho · · Score: 2, Insightful

      It may all be true but it's not like poker works. As many pointed out, in poker you play against the other players, not the house. The house has a fixed rake which is actually pretty low in online games.

      I don't consider myself a pro player and i don't intend to make a fortune playing online poker but in the last 4 months i have been playing my $50 investment turned into $200. I can't make a living with that but it sure beats playing WoW and losing $15 per month.

      The trick is to never overplay your bankroll. I didn't make $150 with one lucky gamble on a $50 game. I made it by playing about 300 games. I lost some, sometimes 2 weeks in a row but in the long run good play will net you money.

      Never play money that what you can't afford to lose. It's as simple as that.

    2. Re:How casinos make money by SL+Baur · · Score: 1

      However, on 1,000 same-sized bets, the odds are very small that they'll lose overall. On a million same-sized bets, it's practically certain they'll make close to the "expected return."

      That's a paraphrase of an old joke, "How do you expect to earn money when you're losing money on every sale?" "Easy, I'll make up for it in volume."

      The only bet in the house where the player has an advantage is Blackjack with a single deck and the player is counting cards. The second closest bet is the "Don't Pass" line in craps, but there the house still has a slight (something like .4%) advantage.

      Houses deal with card counters by "discouraging" them, probably in the same way depicted in the recent movie about the MIT Blackjack team.

  26. Rogues by PMuse · · Score: 1

    If you ask me, the rate at which the unethical/criminal behavior of the month is being perpetrated only by "rogue" employees without management's knowledge is somewhat too high to be believed.

    --
    "We reject as false the choice between our safety and our ideals." --The American President (20.1.2009)
  27. And this is why online gambling should be legal by Zerth · · Score: 0, Flamebait

    If it was legal, you'd only play onshore, where you could rely on it being inspected and audited much like slot machines.

    The only people who would play unknown offshore games are cheaters, idiots, money launderers, and those trying to avoid taxes. And only the cheaters and the house(who are probably either the cheaters or the money launderers) would win, draining the money from idiots and tax-dodgers.

    Sounds good to me.

  28. The end of the world isn't until next year by davidwr · · Score: 0, Troll

    We can all thank the liquid helium leak for an extra 6 months of life on this planet. :)

    --
    Knowledge is how to play a game, intelligence is how to win, wisdom is knowing what game to play.
  29. Gambling is a tax on stupidity by fiannaFailMan · · Score: 2, Insightful

    As my Dad often said, go into a bookie's and you'll see five windows for paying them but only one window for paying out.

    --
    Drill baby drill - on Mars
    1. Re:Gambling is a tax on stupidity by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Don't call me a tax collector!

      "The easiest money is always where the players don't truely understand the game."

      Would have been funny if they had pulled a Hannibal Hayes trick on those cheaters. "There is not a method of cheating I can't discover and take full advantage of to take the cheaters money." But then likely they would get a legal slap for it.

      Quotes may not be exact as are from memory.

    2. Re:Gambling is a tax on stupidity by mmdurrant · · Score: 1

      Uhhh yeah, there's no bookies in poker. I'm sure for you, playing poker is gambling as you don't understand how the game works. For those of us who do understand the game, it's an exercise in calculated risk taking.

      --
      I see my shadow changing, stretching up and over me...
  30. Good Thought. by mevets · · Score: 1

    Maybe Wall street should run it.

    1. Re:Good Thought. by Zerth · · Score: 1

      Or maybe the Audit division of the Nevada Gaming Board should drop by Wall Street. I think they might find some colluding occurring there.

  31. Like anyone cares by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    gamblers are already defective.

  32. But /. says it can't be by frovingslosh · · Score: 0, Redundant

    What amazes me is that so many people believe that there just can't be cheating in on-line poker, a game where you have to trust the operators to not be in the game and looking at all of the cards. When I even mentioned that this could be happening a few times years ago on Slashdot I got modded down and flamed because it just "couldn't happen" and the nice people who ran the games would be perfectly content to take their cut and would never think of cheating. And people also ignored the fact that multiple players who know each other (or one player who plays several hands, even with different Internet connections) can share data about their cards with each other, giving them a small edge against other players who think that all players have the same information available to them. I have since learned from a friend who does play on-line that he and his wife often play in the same hands even from the same IP address and this certainly does go on and is not prevented from the "on-line casinos" that run the games.

    --
    I'm an American. I love this country and the freedoms that we used to have.
  33. Must it crash? by Nerdposeur · · Score: 1

    Once the supply of fresh money stops, the stock value can only rise artificially. So sooner or later a stock market has to crash.

    I'm not an economist, so I'm asking: really?

    I thought the whole idea of capitalism is that labor creates value. As long as the amount of labor is increasing, shouldn't the value continue increasing?

    I know that stock prices are mostly the results of wild guesses, but a share in a company should have a true (if unclear) value that boils down to "one share of lots of valuable goods and services," right?

    1. Re:Must it crash? by seven+of+five · · Score: 1

      I thought the whole idea of capitalism is that labor creates value. As long as the amount of labor is increasing, shouldn't the value continue increasing?

      Labor creates value. Management destroys value.

      Profit = Labor - Management.
      So Profit is conditional, not a given.

    2. Re:Must it crash? by credd144az · · Score: 2

      Correction

      Profit = Total Revenues - Total Costs

      Profit remains conditional.

    3. Re:Must it crash? by m0rph3us0 · · Score: 2

      That sounds a lot like the labor theory of value. The labor theory of value as an explanation of capitalism is the foundations of The Communist Manifesto.

    4. Re:Must it crash? by Alpha830RulZ · · Score: 1

      Once the supply of fresh money stops, the stock value can only rise artificially. So sooner or later a stock market has to crash.

      I'm not an economist, so I'm asking: really?

      I thought the whole idea of capitalism is that labor creates value. As long as the amount of labor is increasing, shouldn't the value continue increasing?

      Actually, it's more that if one saves produced output, whether that output is the product of labor or capital, one can increase one's productive capacity over time, increasing the potential for real income over time. The money supply is a lubricant for this happening, but is not the sole driver.

      As regards stocks, a company's stock can go up, indeed, all companies' stocks can go up, if their real income prospects go up. That is, if they invest in production capacity that is successful in producing goods that people want to buy. Money is primarily relevant in allowing the flow of transactions. A shortage of money can contribute to a price drop in the flow of goods, of which stocks are one, because you need a medium of exchange. The nominal value of the medium of exchange will fluctuate to a level where the amount of the currency is sufficient to allow the transaction flow. So a shortage of money can cause stock prices to fall, just like any other good, and an exces of money can cause stock prices to inflate, just like any other good. Changes in the money supply aren't just going to affect stocks, though. It will affect the general price level, of all goods and services, including the price of labor.

      Yes, I am an economist, though not a pro.

      --
      I was taught to respect my elders. The trouble is, it's getting harder and harder to find some.
    5. Re:Must it crash? by Alpha830RulZ · · Score: 1

      Yeah, and the labor theory of value is easily falsified. Take two programmers, one capable, one not so capable. They both work on a piece of code for 10 hours. The capable programmer's code works and is maintainable. The boffo prog's code doesn't work and will be difficult to maintain.

      The labor theory of value holds that their work is of equal worth. What do you think?

      The contrasting theory of value is based on utility. Worth is measured by whomever consumes the product, and that person alone, by whatever matters to them. This explains the I-phone I am Rich app we saw a few weeks back.

      --
      I was taught to respect my elders. The trouble is, it's getting harder and harder to find some.
    6. Re:Must it crash? by Eivind · · Score: 1

      It's wrong.

      Well, sorta.

      It is TRUE that the total value of all the stocks on an exchange can only rise if new capital are added. But it is not true that this makes it a pyramid-game. Because the poster forgets that rising stock-prices aren't the only way to make money from owning stock.

      In addition to this, companies that turn a profit frequently pay a DIVIDEND. This comes in *addition* to any gains that may arise from fluctuations in the price of stock.

      That's the base idea of stock, afterall.

      You want to start a (hopefully profitable!) company, but you ain't got the needed capital. So you go to me and say: "If you give me $X for my company, I'll let you have %y percent of the profits !"

      If I think it sounds like a good idea, I might *invest*. Even if I'm the only investor in the world, and thus the stock-price never changes, I STILL benefit if your business-idea works out. (offcourse if you go bankrupt instead, I lose my money, such is life)

    7. Re:Must it crash? by cynical+kane · · Score: 1

      Actually, Marxism talks about 'socially necessary labor-time' to explain how value corresponds to utility. But he's still doing it wrong.

      The market creates value out of nothing via allocation. Say that person X likes fruit juice and Y likes soda. By allowing them to buy what they want, more value is created for these people, even though they will both end up drinking the same amount of stuff no matter how it's allocated.

    8. Re:Must it crash? by Alpha830RulZ · · Score: 1

      I don't think that's right. Value, or at least utility, exists before the market comes into the picture. What the market does is create a mechanism for comparative value, ie,. this six pack of beer is worth that much of my work time (as measured in wages).

      --
      I was taught to respect my elders. The trouble is, it's getting harder and harder to find some.
    9. Re:Must it crash? by stinerman · · Score: 1

      The labor theory of value as an explanation of capitalism is the foundations of The Communist Manifesto.

      It also happens to be one of the foundations of Wealth of Nations upon which Marx bases much of Das Kapital.

  34. Way to post a year old story by Warshadow · · Score: 1

    Wow, this isn't something new or shocking to anyone who is involved in the online poker world.

    Some folks on twoplustwo did all the leg work and uncovered this over a year ago (if not earlier). Keep up the good work in posting old stories!

    60 Minutes is supposed to be running a story about this soon. The interviewed some of the people involved in uncovering it earlier this summer.

  35. Half of these posts by dosun88888 · · Score: 5, Insightful

    seem to be from people that know absolutely nothing about poker and ultimately nothing about how the sites make their money, so let's clear up a few things.

    1. It would never be in the best interests of the company to try to allow this to happen to anyone, as the cost would be too high. If players had a hint that they were being cheated they would never play there. That $10MM figure is nothing compared to what the sites generate from rake alone. The only people who could benefit would be hired contractors who wrote the code and got paid some small amount of money to do so. To them, it would be worth the risk to try to cheat somehow, and they obviously did.

    2. To the few people who seem to think that they were getting information that was already on their systems from memory that was encrypted or something, well, that's false. The "special" accounts were sent information that other players do not get sent. You only get your hole cards, and it's not until a showdown where anyone but you and a random server out there know what anyone has.

    I guess that's it, aside from the extreme unlikelihood that anyone would try to cheat in this manner at a small (say 30-60 or less) game. The risk/benefit doesn't add up at those stakes.

    A few random points: high stakes poker can be shady at times, and collusion in the smaller games can be defended against to some extent (by either not playing, or using the style of collusion against the colluders. At times games can appear to be collusive due to excessive raising, but the majority of the time that's just strategy.

    1. Re:Half of these posts by OneSmartFellow · · Score: 1

      I have only ......hah hah snort ......one thing ........hah giggle snort sniff...............to .......haar splat snort giggle sniff........say.

      Damn couldn't control my laughter there for a moment. I think you get the point.

  36. I love proverbs... by ElboRuum · · Score: 2, Insightful

    A fool and his money are soon parted... give that fool a computer and his money will part with greater efficiency and speed.

  37. Backdoor? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    No wonder kdawson is taking such a keen interest, just as he takes a fat one up the ass.

  38. gambling is entertaining by sectionboy · · Score: 1

    and people pay for being entertained.

  39. Note: Does not apply to Windsor! by Chris+Burke · · Score: 1

    Yeah I found out much to my huge disappointment that you don't get comped drinks at the Windsor Casino in Windsor, Canada. Or, just guessing, any other casino that isn't surrounded by dozens of other casinos that you could take your gambling money to. I'd bet comping is mostly a Vegas/Reno thing.

    That said, I did recently go to vegas, and HOO-BOY did I drink a lot of free drinks. By the way, a decent tip can actually greatly accelerate your drinking. I gave a $5 chip to a waitress and instead of come around take my order, come around with the drink, come back later for next order, every time she showed up she had a jack & coke for me, sometimes before I'd finished the last one. Yay!

    Now I didn't do the cheap-o nickel slots thing, which is a great idea, but also boring because slots are boring and you can't even play them quickly or it defeats the purpose. I like to play black jack and craps and actual games. And here's my geeky way of looking at it: You know arcade racing games, where the quarters you plug in give you track time, and passing a checkpoint gives you bonus time? Well think of the $50 or $100 you plan to lose as your initial quarters, the free drinks are the "race", and winning a bet is like the bonus time! The goal is to drink more in free drinks than you are losing gambling.

    I didn't win, but hey, it's was a fun game. :)

    --

    The enemies of Democracy are
  40. Not if they invested wisely by djbentle · · Score: 1

    This is not the case if those people have wisely continuously shifted their investments to less risky portfolio allocations as retirement approaches. You might still lose a significant chunk of money, as you probably aren't completely out of equities, but the majority that is invested conservatively will keep you going while the market recovers. If you retire at 60 and live until 85 you still have a very long time horizon to recover losses.

  41. You're doing it wrong by Layth · · Score: 1

    You forgot to ask for a pack of cigarettes.

    Even if you don't smoke, you can collect a bunch of them and then sell them to your friends back home.

  42. You cheat by Moraelin · · Score: 1

    Well, in a lot of kinds of poker, the way you can guarantee a win is by controlling, say, 3 out of the 4 players at the table. Even if nothing else, you can know that you're not going to get that 4'th ace, because your other player has it. And neither can your opponent have an ace, for that matter. It makes calculating probabilities a lot easier.

    It also allows you to stage your own little shows, like 3-card monte charlatans always have an accomplice who wins to get the crowd confident. Except here you don't even need an accomplice.

    Or if all else fails, you find some bug like these guys did, and exploit it.

    So some gullible sap sits down at the table, and gets cleaned up before even knowing what hit him or that the other 3 guys were basically looking into each other's hands. Well, gee, how'd they know I didn't have a royal flush? Because someone knew that between them, they have some key cards you'd need for that.

    RL poker has a lot more to do with psychology and being able to control your reactions. Hence the term, "poker face." Once you remove that, there's a lot more averaging, as everyone except complete dolts can get a list of rules that say when to hold 'em, when to fold 'em, when to walk away, and when to run.

    So, while I wouldn't say _everyone_, my instinctive bet would be that a lot of those who are supposedly that good as to make a living off online poker, are actually plain old cheating.

    Plus, if I had to place that bet, I'd hedge it with a side bet on "whole lotta money laundering going on." I mean, if you had to transfer a bunch of drug-deal money to Joey The Butcher, or just pay your illegal imigrant workers their wage, it's easier to pretend you played a round of high stakes poker with them and you're that bad at poker, than to go and withdraw tens of thousands from some bank and hand it around in unmarked envelopes. Darn, lost again this month. Who's going to prove that you aren't that much of a sucker?

    Follow the money, basically.

    --
    A polar bear is a cartesian bear after a coordinate transform.
    1. Re:You cheat by Canberra+Bob · · Score: 1

      "RL poker has a lot more to do with psychology and being able to control your reactions. Hence the term, "poker face." Once you remove that, there's a lot more averaging, as everyone except complete dolts can get a list of rules that say when to hold 'em, when to fold 'em, when to walk away, and when to run." And this shows a complete ignorance of poker. When I played for a living (no cheating necessary) I loved playing against people who thought that. They would turn up wearing their sunglasses, pull the hood over their head thinking that poker was all about hiding their 'tells'. Then they would get cleaned out. Why? Because poker is predominately a maths / statistics based game. Before anything else you have to have a rock solid knowledge of what your odds are to complete certain hands. Through this alone you have an advantage over most players who think poker is all about a poker face. After this you spend time profiling players - what category do they fit in? Are they aggressive or passive? This gives you a rough indication as to the probability they are making certain plays or can be pushed off hands. You should be able to write a page or so on playing characteristics of your opponents after you have played against them for a few hours. You perform a statistical analysis of your hands - what starting hands return profits? Which ones return a loss but can increase your profits on other hands? What is your optimal bluffing frequency against different types of players? You will find there is a huge amount of game theory involved. You will find picking up on tells only accounts for a small fraction of your total profit for the night. And a good player most definitely does NOT have to rely on cheating to end up ahead - it just takes a lot of work.

    2. Re:You cheat by Imsdal · · Score: 1
      This post is almost 100% wrong. Collusion isn't as lucrative as you make it out to be. It's also much easier to detect than you imply. Finally, it's harder to do well than most people think, especially the dorks who spend their time doing it. Note that for three players to gain from collusion they will have to make more than three times as much as they each would individually.

      RL poker has a lot less to do with reads than you suggest. It is, however, exactly that belief that makes it so profitable, as many many players simply don't understand the maths behind the game, or even the fact that the maths is the most important aspect of it.

      And finally, money laundering through poker sites is costly, slow, not accepted by the tax authorities and easy to detect. I'm not saying it doesn't happen, but it's not happening on a big scale simply because the scale offered isn't big enough for any serious money laundering.

  43. Huh... by rickb928 · · Score: 1

    Didn't see that coming...

    {Choking down another buffalo wing}

    --
    deleting the extra space after periods so i can stay relevant, yeah.
  44. EXACTLY! by BitterAndDrunk · · Score: 5, Funny
    That's why I only shoot up with clean needles. I'll get high, and there's No Consequences.

    I SAID NO CONSEQUENCES!

    --
    You better watch out, there may be dogs about . . .
  45. Trust no output by mbstone · · Score: 1

    Heck, I don't even trust digital gas pumps.

  46. Check out this post... by suzzer99 · · Score: 2, Informative

    From *before* the Absolute Poker or Ultimate Bet scandal broke. By far the simplest explanation here is that Mark Seif (Poker pro, also site spokesman and part owner) was at least playing around with "superuser" capability.

    By the way I followed this thing since it's inception at 2+2. Absolutely riveting story and investigation job. We're all just hoping it doesn't kill online poker.

    http://www.internettexasholdem.com/poker-forum/at-absolute-pokeri-cant-believe-how-low-this-was-vt34808.html

    "Play then started again......and I saw something that I never have before in all my on-line poker play: obvious manipulation. Every hand was a complete dissection based on whatever Mike was holding (third pair was capped by Seif if Mike was behind or bluffing, for example.) About 10 or 12 k was basically stolen in 15 minutes (over maybe 100 hands), and here's the kicker: he was so pissed and beyond rational thinking that he actually wanted Mike to know what was going on! For example, Mike had K9 on one hand and flopped a boat. Seif was first to act after the flop, and FOLDED OUT OF TURN just that time."

    That just doesn't happen in poker. That you flop a full house and a tough aggressive opponent open-folds.

  47. Lack of knowledge by athdemo · · Score: 1

    Some of the comments I've read on this article are embarrassing, and honestly, this article itself is embarrassing.

    I play poker professionally on multiple sites, and have done so over the last few years. The scandal this article references is old news, and was discussed intensively on the 2+2 poker forums. The site was not cheating its customers. An employee supposedly warned Absolute about a security hole that would allow for a superuser account that could view his opponents cards, and when he was rebuked, proceeded to do so on his own.

    Online casinos have very little to gain and everything to lose by doing something like this. The operating costs compared to the rake that they take in is certainly a huge gap in favor of the site, and having superusers out there to take $50 (a limit that most people that claim online poker is "rigged" play at) off their customers here and there is absurd when you consider the results of being busted doing so. Further, when players claim poker is "rigged" for action to increase the rake, they obviously just do not understand that there is almost always a cap placed on the rake these sites take, a very low one especially in comparison to live casinos, and as such building big pots would net them very little. Generally these claims of being rigged are made as players claim to see a disproportionate amount of strong hands, not considering the fact that online poker tables see as many as 10x the hands that live tables do, and so unlikely hands like four of a kind and straight flushes are much more likely to occur.

    In general, all the comments made so far claiming that it is "obvious" that online poker is rigged have no idea what they're talking about and are merely losing players. In this particular case, an employee found a security hole that was only even accessible by someone with inside access, reported it, and when it was not acted upon, abused it. This is certainly a problem, but one that is not as rampant as many players would lead you to believe.

  48. Cheating by horza · · Score: 2, Interesting

    In online poker:
    * the house doesn't need to cheat. The amount they make verses their costs means they don't need to
    * players try and cheat via collusion, but their edge is so small it's not worth worrying about
    * if you are playing cash games you will probably be fleeced by bot networks. I know people that run them, they live in tax havens and siphone off fortunes via a network of Net-teller accounts etc. Most of the bots run via valid accounts and credit cards, with the recipients that run the software 24/7 on their machines via DSL rake in 10%. The bots don't run on tournaments so that's where I play.

    In real life:
    * the house doesn't need to cheat. It's still a profitable business
    * in a poker club or a casino the other players rarely cheat. It's such security that justifies the house rake
    * in private games you have to watch for cheating. Eg thumbnail imprints on the back of cards, bent corners, etc.

    Phillip.

  49. Poker is not gambling by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Interesting

    Hey guys poker is not gambling, in the long term!

    Just visit sharkscope.com and check the name livb112 at FullTilt!

    Username Games Played Av. Profit Av. Stake Av. ROI Total Profit
    livb112 23,560 $43 $840 5% $1,020,747

  50. What exactly is a Gaming Commission? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Seriously, what exactly is a Gaming Commission and what executive powers do they have? It is a real question btw.

    The Kahnawake Gaming Commission is located on a Native Reserve, South of Montreal, Canada. What kind of Legal power do they have? It's certainly not federal or provincial! Can it be trusted?

    Some folks over on Wikipedia are also questionning this.

    I'll probably be 'trolled down' if I mention that 'some' Kahnawake Mohawks have had 'some' legal issues in the past (read: tobacco contraband, drug smugglin') because it is most likely not the same guys who run the Gaming Commission and it's non-relevant. However, as a Quebec resident, I can't help but relate what I see in the news 'bout Kahnawake Mohaks and the KGC.

    Posting AC per my lawyer advice.

  51. Open the source to the client and the server by mmdurrant · · Score: 1

    The only way any of these companies can get my trust back (I used to play on full tilt a lot and I did quite well) is to release the source to their server and client. There is no harm to be done here, as all the game logic should be happening on the server and the only purpose the client serves is presenting the information to the user. As all of the client-server conversation is SSL encrypted (believe me I've checked) there is no danger here. Am I crazy for thinking this?

    --
    I see my shadow changing, stretching up and over me...
  52. Shifting trends? by edmazur · · Score: 1

    FTA:

    Josem said people could still be confident about playing on online poker sites because, if something untoward happened, it could easily be caught by statistical analysis, precisely as happened in this situation.

    Or...cheaters of the future might learn from this and not be so flagrant about using their advantage, instead factoring in what is statistically possible and turning smaller profits, but at a less detectable and therefore safer rate.

  53. Old by Dunge · · Score: 0

    That was last year...

  54. iPoker by Dunge · · Score: 0

    They should check iPoker next, the random is even stranger.

  55. Not a surprise if you've worked in the industry by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I worked for a number of large online gambling software development houses, and I would rather work on the killing floor of a slaughterhouse than go back to that line of work. Insane unbridled greed at the executive level, ruthless backstabbing environment, and the worst code and coding practices I'd ever seen. Patching live servers was a common practice, but you'd better not screw up! Downtime not allowed, period. Downtime means no money coming in, and programmers / system administrators who were deemed responsible were taken out into an alley and beaten up. The owners view players as idiots who deserve to be ripped off. Believe me, all online gambling really is owned by the mob, and "Get the money first, keep the money, don't ever give back the money" is their catchphrase.

  56. back doors by Friendly+Pyro · · Score: 1

    Well people should find better things to do then play online poker.

  57. I will never trust online poker by hesaigo999ca · · Score: 1

    I was told, the only time online poker is fair, is when you are playing a small hand game, 5cent bets etc... this way no big fish are interested in the game, and regular people have a fair chance at winning.

    The problem stems from the big game poker, where someone is sitting at home with 5 accounts on 5 computers and has 5 bots running at all times with special keyboards, and ends up ruling the table where the 6th player is you....no matter what ... he takes your money.

    I have seen it done, and since then do not bother with playing poker online.....give me the real game.

  58. Re:your signature Re:This just in... by damn_registrars · · Score: 1

    I guess it is better, for those who know what that is (which obviously does not include me).

    Although I suppose that might not be bad, either. Some people (myself included) will click on it because they have no idea what it is.

    --
    Damn_registrars has no butt-hole. Damn_registrars has no use for a butt-hole.
  59. I am working on a new online poker setup by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Its going to be yet another online poker thingy and will be play-money only at the start but the client has plans to go the Real Money route later on. We have been told that he has no intention of making us work on anti-cheating measures and, you won't believe it, he wants a few cheats encoded into the system which will allow some superuser accounts to see the hole cards.

    I personally don't really care since well I am no saint myself but just saying that this is the kind of thing you should expect when you decide to bet your hard earned money on online gambling games (yeah yeah I know poker is not gambing blah blah, I have heard it before but its worse than gambling if someone knows your hand ALL THE TIME)

  60. Mental poker would prevent this kind of cheating by DamnStupidElf · · Score: 1

    Mental poker is the general name for cryptographic protocols that can be used to securely play games of chance and hidden information with no possibility of cheating because of a single trusted server. Obviously collusion between legitimate players in the game can still occur, but I can't believe that anyone would even consider playing online poker (read: giving lots and lots of money to some guy online who promises that he won't steal it) without some sort of assurance that the underlying software wasn't as fair as an actual table with physical cards.

  61. I don't know why people play these to begin with? by King_TJ · · Score: 1

    I have to admit that I'm not much of a gambler (or even a card player), but I took a look at one of the online casinos recently, after they sent me a REALLY slick marketing packet in the mail.

    It was a full color glossy "magazine" with real articles and everything, but essentially an advertisement to visit an online casino, with a free $50 credit to get started.

    I figured, "$50 to get started? I'll give it a shot, and if nothing else, I'll just cash out and collect my $50 or whatever is left of it after I lose a round or two!"

    Well, after installing their software on the included CD and going through their lengthy registration process, I picked a blackjack game and gave it a try.

    That's when I realized there was a LOT of fine print, beyond what the advertisement promised. Yes, you could place bets with your complimentary $50 credit, but money you won over and above that was not possible to convert into a real payout. You could only use it for further gambling. You had to deposit actual funds before you could withdraw any winnings!

    At that point, I just played until I lost my "$50" and logged off, never to use the garbage again.

  62. Re:Note: Does not apply to Windsor! by ahsile · · Score: 1

    The government of Ontario won't let them give out free alcoholic drinks... I know, I think it's dumb too.