The Android Invasion Cometh; Is Resistance Futile?

DeviceGuru writes "Last month, we learned from Gartner that Android will probably be the number-two worldwide mobile OS this year, and may lead the pack by 2014. With Android's growing use as the OS embedded in phones, in tablets, in set-top boxes, and in LCD HDTVs, it seems like the Linux-based OS could end up dominating the entire non-PC consumer device operating system space. What do Slashdot readers think: Is resistance futile?"

Comments

There is still long way to go

[weachiod]

I think the article is forgotting that there are already many widespread OS that are taking up that market. I and obviously other geeks love Android because it could mean more open devices for us, but we aren't seeing the whole picture either because it's not in news every day.

The "problem" is the same as with Opera. People think it's not as widespread as it's barely in news and their stuff isn't blastered all over your face all the time. However Opera dominates on embedded devices, televisions (especially in hotels!), mobile phones, even Nintendo Wii.

Windows variants are also the same. Windows 7, Windows CE and Windows Mobile are majorly used but it's not always so obvious. When you take a flight all the televisions in airports run Windows. When you go to ATM they run special version of Windows CE. Some hotel TV's also run Windows. With the upcoming Microsoft tablets and Windows Phone 7, it will get even more marketshare. Windows is also used pretty much in every organization and company.

If Android actually wants to take over all of that, it will be a long road. I hope they do, but I'm not so sure they will. Microsoft is good with business relationships and marketing and thats the point. It's not a small market and Windows is already dominating it.

Re:There is still long way to go

[vsage3]

When you take a flight all the televisions in airports run Windows.

Agree with what you said for the most part, but I just wanted to point out that I think Linux is used behind the scenes too. For example, on a long flight back to the U.S. while I was flying with a major European carrier, the entertainment system crashed and I saw the Linux penguin pop up on the screen. I agree though: especially in the states, most of the displays you see on walls in buildings are Windows.

Re:There is still long way to go

[tha_toadman]

...most of the displays you see on walls in buildings are Windows.

Yep. Don't forget about this incident! http://gizmodo.com/5035456/blue-screen-of-death-strikes-birds-nest-during-opening-ceremonies-torch-lighting

Re:There is still long way to go

[Jezza]

Are we sure we want Android taking over all of that? I don't. I think a single OS dominating is a bad idea - like growing nothing but potatoes. I'd like to see Android doing SOME of that.

Re:There is still long way to go

[muntis]

When you go to ATM they run special version of Windows CE.

Not sure about that. I have seen WinXP screensaver on ATM more than once. Needless to say, I didn't try to withdraw any money.

Re:There is still long way to go

[Dancindan84]

bad idea - like growing nothing but potatoes.

I'm having trouble with your analogy:
boiled
mashed
stuck in a stew
baked
french fries
stuffed
potato skins
chips
vodka!

Maybe if you'd used a car analogy instead...

Re:There is still long way to go

[rolfwind]

When you take a flight all the televisions in airports run Windows.

http://www.foogazi.com/2008/01/25/delta-airlines-runs-linux/

Delta runs linux.

Re:There is still long way to go

[sortius_nod]

I've had the same thing happen on a Malaysia Airlines flight. Most of the in-flight entertainment seems to just be thin clients these days. If the system dies it just reboots.

Mine restarted and was fine for the rest of the flight.

Re:There is still long way to go

[God'sDuck]

You don't have to worry about that. As an avid (and happy) Android user I can tell you: the open market is great, but the operating system is still a bit of a mess. Freezes, crashes and data losses are somewhat endemic. Each version is a little better, but it is years and years behind the iPhone for basic reliability, and all of the non-geek Android users I know plan to buy an iPhone when their contract is up. The geeks are happy and plan to stay.

My expectation is for smartphones (at least in the US) to eventually take the path of PCs, with Android as the Windows-analogue "most prevalent but somewhat buggy" OS, Apple as Apple, and everything else (Blackberry, WebOS, Maemo) as the "they work awesome but who uses them?" Linux distros.

Re:There is still long way to go

[Nursie]

Did you miss the important word in the summary?

I admit that I did on first read.

MOBILE

We're talking about mobile operating systems. FWIW, ATMs seem to use a 'normal' version of windows rather than CE. MS do embedded versions of their mainstream OS.

Also, ATMs, hotel televisions... not mobile.

Re:There is still long way to go

[bjourne]

You don't have to worry about that. As an avid (and happy) Android user I can tell you: the open market is great, but the operating system is still a bit of a mess. Freezes, crashes and data losses are somewhat endemic. Each version is a little better, but it is years and years behind the iPhone for basic reliability, and all of the non-geek Android users I know plan to buy an iPhone when their contract is up. The geeks are happy and plan to stay.

How on earth can you be HAPPY with that???

Re:There is still long way to go

[Americano]

I'm having trouble with your analogy:

Yeah, you can do a million things with potatoes. But what if, suddenly, there were no potatoes?

Re:There is still long way to go

[zach_the_lizard]

I saw the same thing while flying across the US. The entertainment system crashed, and I was treated to Linux booting up. It was running a 2.4.X series kernel.

Re:There is still long way to go

[mlts]

Depending on system, if it is something like an ATM, or other embedded appliance, it will have a watchdog card in it. This, coupled with a driver that just sends a random piece of output to the card's device makes it so that if the kernel crashes, the machine will automatically power cycle.

This takes care of the system level, but if a crash happens in userland, it is up to the appliance writer to be able to have a daemon that can detect if stuff is wedged and either kill/restart it, or maybe even trigger a hard reboot to make sure everything is completely ready to go on the next startup.

Re:There is still long way to go

[Daniel Phillips]

More likely, the power was interrupted.

Re:There is still long way to go

[Daniel Phillips]

Are we sure we want Android taking over all of that? I don't. I think a single OS dominating is a bad idea - like growing nothing but potatoes. I'd like to see Android doing SOME of that.

Good point, we should add some MSDos to the mix.

Re:There is still long way to go

[donaldm]

Freezes, crashes and data losses are somewhat endemic. Each version is a little better, but it is years and years behind the iPhone for basic reliability

Care to provide references to that statement?

While I don't have a smart phone I have friends who have Android and iPhone phones (my two sons have iPhone's) and I have not heard any horror stories on either platform. As for reliability both appear too be quite reliable although the iPhone does have the most applications but then most Android phones are unlocked to begin with and it is only just recently that Telstra (Australia) is unlocking iPhones for free.

Re:There is still long way to go

[PseudonymousBraveguy]

Those in-flight entertainment systems are incredibly unstable. On 5 out of my last 8 inter-continental flights, I've seen at least one of them crashing/getting restarted (ranging from a single system to all machines in the section of the plane I could see). It's usually not linux itself that crashes, but either the client application or the server application. Unfortunately the only "repair operation" the crew is trained to use in that situation is "reboot the system and hope it comes up well. If not, reboot again".

Re:There is still long way to go

[phillymjs]

Windows 7, Windows CE and Windows Mobile are majorly used but it's not always so obvious. When you take a flight all the televisions in airports run Windows.

Actually, it's pretty obvious.

And actually, not all airports are using Windows. [FYI: PDF link]

~Philly

Re:There is still long way to go

[Archangel Michael]

How on earth can you be HAPPY with that???

Its not Apple, Blackberry, Microsoft or Palm, that's how.

Geeks hate anything not OSS by default, and hate big corps (except Google, and even that is changing) so .. Android is default choice, and they are willing to do "extra work" just to prop it up.

Actually, Android is probably stable for just about everyone except geeks, because geeks usually push the technology more than non-geeks, causing the problems listed.

Re:There is still long way to go

[webheaded]

I think you're being a bit dramatic. It's not perfect, but it isn't a mess. I'm not sure why you'd think that. I use my phone constantly and I only have problems crop up now and again...no different than a regular Windows install. And as for data loss...I've actually never lost any data before outside of me actual doing a factory reset. The bugs I completely agree on (though with less frequency than you imply) but I'm at a loss for what you're looking at as far as "data loss" is concerned. What data have you lost? As for the freezing and crashes...I can normally pin that on a rogue app. I haven't had my phone actually freeze and require a reboot for some time now. Crashes, I've definitely had for some apps. Flash is a complete mess on my Droid. Crashes all my browsers pretty much within seconds of it playing a video unless I start it and then don't move at all.

I will, however, say that the upgrade process for Android is an effing mess. Pretty much the only way to upgrade and have it not run like complete shit is to back up your shit and do a factory reset. I will agree with you there. My wife upgraded her Droid Eris to 2.1 and it's been a buggy mess since then. I had the same problem when I upgraded my Droid to 2.2. Required a wipe and I was good to go. They REALLY need to work on that process. It's really bad.

Re:There is still long way to go

[PitaBred]

No idea. I have an Android phone and I don't have the freezes. Sometimes apps crash, but that's the way it is on all systems. It's the power and flexibility of the system that keeps me on Android instead of iCrap. That, and the fact that I'm not locked into Steve Jobs' vision of how things should be. I don't happen to think his way is the best way to do everything.

Re:There is still long way to go

[asdfghjklqwertyuiop]

it could mean more open devices for us

More open devices when? All we have is the Nexus One, if that's still sold today. There could have been open devices all along, yet here we are with android phones loaded with uninstallable crapware, boot loader enforcing software image signatures, "e-fuses", phones that automatically reimage themselves if "tampered" with.

Re:There is still long way to go

[MrAnnoyanceToYou]

Yeah, one distro dominating is always a problem with Linux.

Re:There is still long way to go

[Anonymous Coward]

Not all geeks drink from the everything OSS is great cool aid bowl, thank you. Most of those geeks are just OSS sheeples. Real geeks use the best tool for the job because it works well.

Re:There is still long way to go

[d3ac0n]

What about those of us geeks that LIKE WebOS? I mean, I can do everything that an Android user can do and MORE with WebOS, and WebOS makes it easier to do.

Tell me you Android users, can you patch your Android device with a kernel that allows for multiple types of adaptive overclocking? No? funny, I can with my Gen1 Sprint Pre using WebOS 1.4.5. In fact, I've been doing it for at least 3 point releases of WebOS.

Wait. Your Android device isn't getting an OTA update from your carrier? You can't even GET an OTA update because your only 6 month old device isn't compatible with Froyo? And you have to be even MORE of a carrier bitch and pay out more money just to get Froyo, but you can only get a gimped version with features missing?

REALLY?

I just don't see how you people think Android is "open" when it looks like only the CARRIERS have any real access to the phone without a complex hack that is only really possible for Alpha Geeks and is as lkely to BRICK your phone or cause the carrier to drop your contract as it is to unlock it.

Other than having a metric crapload of apps (about 99% garbage apps too.) you Android users appear to be getting LESS for your money than us WebOS users. Yeah, I have a device that's over a year old. At least my software is up to date, and uniform across all carriers and devices. Having a brand new Android device that's completely locked down and using a gimped old version of Android is like owning a Ferrari that has a Yugo engine and needs champagne as fuel. Flashy, expensive to use crap.

No thanks, I'll stick with WebOS.

Re:There is still long way to go

[MrAnnoyanceToYou]

That's weird, all my friends love it.

Re:There is still long way to go

[Blakey Rat]

It's also possible a lot of people are using Android as a stop-gap until Windows Mobile stopped sucking shit. Now that Windows Mobile 7 is out, and seems to not suck shit, you might see a decline in Android-based phones. (Just a theory, but I know it applies to a couple people I've talked to.)

Re:There is still long way to go

[grindking]

It's not years and years behind iphone in basic reliability, it doesn't freeze/crash or have data loss. If you aren't using a stock Android device, you can't blame Android itself. I have been using Android since Jan of 2009 and have become highly educated in this platform. I see more of these incorrect statements all the time. These phones also are not just for geeks. I've heard nothing but praise from non technical people I know irl, and they have been totally happy with the *EASE OF USE* Android provides. I'm going to just pretend I never read this comment as it is filled with tons of FUD and inaccurate information. Thanks

Re:There is still long way to go

[CohibaVancouver]

I can't believe anyone would be retarded enough to use the worst version of windows evaaar [sic] for that

From: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automated_teller_machine#Software: A small number of deployments may still be running older versions such as Windows NT [or] Windows CE.

I know this is Slashdot and therefore EVERY instance of Windows is required to be described as spyware riddled buggy-code bloatware that crashes every six minutes, but the truth is there are millions of specialized devices running the Windows Operating System that go about their business day in and day out with no problems whatsoever. From ATMs to Point-of-Sale terminals to kiosks to automotive computers - The list goes on and on.

Re:There is still long way to go

[Sique]

Then you should stop exporting all your grain to England, as it was in Ireland, and feed your population.

Re:There is still long way to go

[TrancePhreak]

Well, I can tell you that Android is actually pretty good in comparison to iPhone. See, the great Jobs decided iPhone should be built on Objective C, a language few knew how to use correctly. So we end up with lots of freezes, crashes, and data loss. Not to mention often leaked memory, or just plain not having control over memory allocation at times. The OS also uses an insane amount of memory for a mobile OS (100+MB) and didn't even support app backgrounding until recent (something Android, Windows Mobile, and others already did with fewer available RAM).

I do agree there are rough edges. It's just that all phones have them in different places. I personally would like a feature freeze, with them working out all the kinks.

Re:There is still long way to go

[Creepy]

yep - seen the same myself. The problem isn't Linux itself, as it is rare that all of the clients hang or fail, but the app they use definitely is buggy. From what I could see, they reset it from a panel with just a few buttons (no monitor, keyboard, or mouse), so the repair operation of pushing a reset button may be their only choice.

Re:There is still long way to go

[mspohr]

Think potato blight (and famine) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Famine_(Ireland)

Re:There is still long way to go

[aliquis]

Why should things like ATMs run Android?

Linux, BSD, QNX, vxWorks, .. Sure, but Android? For user-interface?

But I'm tired so maybe I'm wrong and stupid :)

Re:There is still long way to go

[IICV]

It's a phone? You could physically lose it at any time, which would be equivalent to a permanent software freeze accompanied by data loss. If there's anything important that only lives on your phone, you're doing it wrong.

Re:There is still long way to go

[aliquis]

Or what if web-browsers beat potatoes?

Re:There is still long way to go

[jo42]

<troll>
"Android is the next Windows" - remember you read that here on /. first...
</troll>

Re:There is still long way to go

[adisakp]

You don't have to worry about that. As an avid (and happy) Android user I can tell you: the open market is great, but the operating system is still a bit of a mess. Freezes, crashes and data losses are somewhat endemic. Each version is a little better, but it is years and years behind the iPhone for basic reliability, and all of the non-geek Android users I know plan to buy an iPhone when their contract is up. The geeks are happy and plan to stay.

I have to agree with your sentiments. I'm a geek and I wanted an open-OS phone. I bought the first Android phone the week it came out and it crashed and froze up so much I couldn't use it. Plus it butt-dialed a lot from my pocket. It was clunky and extraordinarily painful to use. I returned it in the 14-day return window. Then I got an iPhone and I am fairly happy with it except where AT&T has spotty coverage :-( Android burned me a couple years ago. I'm sure it's much better now but when I used it, it was clearly not even a stable beta they were willing to push onto consumers. It might not be as "open" but I know that Apple is going to give me a much better working experience right now as far as phones go.

Re:There is still long way to go

[Miamicanes]

Actually, real honest-to-god unrecoverable bricking is pretty rare. In fact, it's almost unheard of for anyone not on the absolute trailblazing bleeding-edge of rooting a new phone to actually do it.

Most of the "bricked" phones posted about online are third-tier users who know enough to root their phones, but not enough to know how to back out of trouble when something goes wrong, and instantly say their phone is "bricked" because it no longer boots up. 99.9% of the time, they spend a few hours online, discover that they need to take out the battery, wait 30 seconds, possibly copy something to the microSD card, put the battery back in, then power back up while pressing some combination of buttons intended to be non-obvious. Then their phone works again, and they're back on track to eliteness.

The main annoyance with trying other Android distros is the fact that they all expect you to blow everything away and start over from scratch first. Google reduces the pain a bit by at least allowing you to restore your contacts, but it gets old quickly.

Really, that's the main difference between upgrading a rooted phone to the latest and greatest now, vs waiting 2-6 months for the carrier to release its gimped official upgrade: the gimped official upgrade mostly Just Works and installs transparently, while the guerrilla upgrades require virgin installations on wiped flash.

IMHO, another part of the problem is the way lots of Android distros blur the line between apps and Android, which causes much of the need to wipe everything before installation because they end up moving things around and putting apps and data in places that are distro-specific, if not slightly weird and bizarre. I think part of it is because most of the leaders behind Android's "ROM Scene" came from Windows Mobile rather than desktop Linux, and as a result we kind of ended up with the worst of both. If you look at lots of the Android distros/roms available, the AOSP ones tend to be architecturally better and less brittle, because the people behind them seem to have a better understanding of Linux in general and how it's supposed to work.

The unsurprising result is that the phones that are locked down the hardest unsurprisingly have the most brittle custom ROMs, and the phones that are more or less blown wide open (by hacking, if not manufacturer/carrier intent) running custom Android distros built from the kernel up tend to be the most stable. It's a major reason why I ended up sticking with the Epic4G instead of jumping ship to the Evo. In the long run, the Epic's kernel and source is just better and more maintainable. The Evo got the early mindshare and most of the hardcore developers, but I think the Samsung phones are going to end up with a longer and more productive homebrew lifespan because there's no need to dick around with patched kernels ripped from other phones... you can just build a proper one from scratch, because the source is perfectly good and buildable on its own.

Viva Cyanogen :-)

Re:There is still long way to go

[God'sDuck]

Horror stories? No, I've never lost everything. However I (and MANY) Exchange users have to synch less than one week of e-mail or the phone drops the e-mail account and all the messages ( http://code.google.com/p/android/issues/detail?id=4980 http://code.google.com/p/android/issues/detail?id=4866 ). Last week the Google "Listen" app in charge of my podcasts decided to randomly delete all of my data. The phone regularly freezes for 10-60 seconds while handling multitasking, during which time native apps like THE PHONE in the foreground stop working. And yes, I have had to pull the battery on occasion to make calls.
 
None of these are horror stories, and I, as a geek, am content to shrug and deal with them, because frankly I really like the phone and prefer the interface and browser to the iPhone. But it's a conditional love.

Re:There is still long way to go

[Some1too]

What about those of us geeks that LIKE WebOS? I mean, I can do everything that an Android user can do and MORE with WebOS, and WebOS makes it easier to do.

Tell me you Android users, can you patch your Android device with a kernel that allows for multiple types of adaptive overclocking? No? funny, I can with my Gen1 Sprint Pre using WebOS 1.4.5.

Even funnier, It's not a feature i'd use.

In fact, I've been doing it for at least 3 point releases of WebOS.

Wait. Your Android device isn't getting an OTA update from your carrier? You can't even GET an OTA update because your only 6 month old device isn't compatible with Froyo? And you have to be even MORE of a carrier bitch and pay out more money just to get Froyo, but you can only get a gimped version with features missing?

REALLY?

Bought my nexus one without a contract, installed a modded os (Cyangoen) and installed a great deal of useful apps.

I just don't see how you people think Android is "open" when it looks like only the CARRIERS have any real access to the phone without a complex hack that is only really possible for Alpha Geeks and is as lkely to BRICK your phone or cause the carrier to drop your contract as it is to unlock it.

Documentation on how to flash your device so it doesn't end up bricked can easily be found and it's instructions are very clear. It does not take an an overly technical person to do this. I don't think it has a higher rate of being bricked than any other hardware being flashed.

Other than having a metric crap load of apps (about 99% garbage apps too.) you Android users appear to be getting LESS for your money than us WebOS users. Yeah, I have a device that's over a year old. At least my software is up to date, and uniform across all carriers and devices. Having a brand new Android device that's completely locked down and using a gimped old version of Android is like owning a Ferrari that has a Yugo engine and needs champagne as fuel. Flashy, expensive to use crap.

No thanks, I'll stick with WebOS.

Apps are what you make of them. The applications I find useful I install and keep. Even if we use your somewhat "99% percent garbage apps too" estimate that still leaves me with 1% of apps that might be of value. I'm not sure why I'm replying to your post other than to say it seems like you really don't like the android platform. I can't help but wonder did you by chance brick one of your android phones? :-)

Re:There is still long way to go

[getNewNickName]

Open market apps are probably lower quality when it comes to testing. So "freezes, crashes and data loss" are pretty common. If you're use to using freeware you're use to this type of behavior. Isn't the saying, "you get what you pay for"?

Re:There is still long way to go

[Nadaka]

Possibly, only time will tell. Win Phone 7 looks like it will provide some competition. I am looking forwards to seeing what it can do, but I am happy enough with my Android Samsung Epic that I won't be switching even if it is good.

Re:There is still long way to go

[santiagodraco]

Of course they are not forgetting that, it's obvious there are "other" OS's out there. The point of the article is that they are making a case for Android supplanting those other OS's.

So now that you hopefully understand what the post really means you can return to the topic at hand, not what's out there now but what will be more in use by 2014.

I think Android is on it's way to the top.

Re:There is still long way to go

[anethema]

What's funny is, iOS jailbroken is actually a nerd's paradise. Much more so than android actually.

On the iPhone, you have a full apt package system, a terminal running bash, OpenSSH/OpenSSL tools, server, client, etc. a full GCC dev environement, etc.

A lot of this stuff is stuff you just don't get on Android at any level. You get a terminal out of the box with android, but what do you get? Busybox. Guh. Want SSH? You get Dropbear. The package system sucks compared to APT. I've never tried getting GCC running on the phone but I don't imagine it is easy, if at all possible.

With the iPhone I really feel like I have a full computer running in my pocket. I asked several android hackers why you are limited with these crappy tools on the phone itself, and they replied it was an embedded device so you get embedded tools. I'm sorry but something with 1-2 cores at >1GHz, a GPU that far outstrips anything on my earlier computers, and 32 gigs of NV storage is -not- an embedded device, I don't care how small it is.

You get all this, PLUS a UI that (only IMO I understand) is far more fluid and nicer to use than Android.

Don't get my wrong I'm not just yelling across the fence. I had a Nexus one for a good few months. I tried hard to like it, but in the end when the i4 came out, I jumped ship like it was on fire.

There is of course, hassle. I don't like to restore from backup so Every time there is a major firmware update I actually wipe my phone clean, then sync all my apps over fresh. But thanks to several tools out there it isn't a total restart.

There is hassle but for me, android has a LONG way to go, especially on the hacker front to be anywhere near the iPhone in terms of UI -AND- geekery.

Re:There is still long way to go

[epine]

Each version is a little better, but it is years and years behind the iPhone for basic reliability

That's an amazing crystal ball you have there. Can you wrap you arms around it?

It's notoriously hard to project stability in a rapidly moving software project. "Years and years" is a span of time longer than Chrome's entire release history. You might get away with saying that clang/llvm is years and years behind GCC, if the parts that aren't done yet matter more than what's already superior.

OpenBSD takes a lot of flack for bragging about "security out of the box" where the lion's share of this accomplishment is ensuring that risky services are not enabled by default. So it's damn secure doing not very damn much, and probably slightly more damn secure than anything else doing equally little. I think it's a great policy, but it only proves so much.

For all I know, the iPhone is years and years behind the basic stability of the DynaTAC brick phone from 1983. You hold those damn bricks any damn way you wanted to, tennis elbow notwithstanding.

Re:There is still long way to go

[Wowsers]

Geeks love Android.... "could mean more open devices for us".....

Depends what you mean by open.

I have my first smart phone which is Android, because I wanted to support a Linux type OS. But when I look at it, I cannot permanently remove the following: Stocks, Facebook / Twitter / Peep, Footprints, Friend Stream - WITHOUT rooting my phone, and possibly turning it into an expensive brick. The phone is not tied to any network and bought SIM free, so it's not the networks that put that unmovable stuff on the phone, it was the designers of Android. That's not very open. At least on my desktop I can remove bits of Linux I don't like should I want to.

Re:There is still long way to go

[david_thornley]

Define "dominating". If the desktop/laptop OS market was about 60% MS Windows, 20% Mac OSX, 20% Linux (various distros), the software scene would be far different. Look at what happened to web development when Firefox and others reduced IE use to something under 70%. IE is still used by the majority of people, according to most measures, but very few places can afford to be IE-specific.

Moreover, Android isn't an OS in the same sense as iOS, just as Linux isn't an OS in the same sense as Mac OSX. It's something of an OS building kit. Android could dominate without any one company dominating, just as if the desktop market was dominated by Linux there would doubtless be competition between distros. If the dominant OS was iOS or Windows Mobile, I'd be much more worried.

What we, the consumers, want, is competition. Competition fosters innovation and keeps prices down. It allows companies to calcify without hurting the market unduly. What's more, for the geek community: we're enough people, and we spend enough, so that we're a useful niche market. A dominant company can afford to sweep niche markets under the rug, but in a competitive situation somebody's going to want to take care of individual niche markets.

Re:There is still long way to go

[ColdWetDog]

good thing you don't see what goes on in the cockpit...

Re:There is still long way to go

[Grokmoo]

That's interesting. Most of the non-geek people I know who still have iPhones are planning to switch to Android when their contract is up. I also know a number of people who have already switched and are much happier than they were with the iPhone. There is a whole family of non-geeks I know who have switched directly from the iPhone to the HTC Incredible and are loving it.

As an Android end user, I must say I haven't experienced the "endemic" reliability issues you are talking about. I think your sentiment that Android is "years and year behind the iPhone" is years and years out of date.

Re:There is still long way to go

[Abcd1234]

I think the article is forgotting that there are already many widespread OS that are taking up that market. I and obviously other geeks love Android because it could mean more open devices for us...

That's quite the assumption, there.

Android is no more open than the carriers/device manufacturers decide it should be. And there's ample evidence that will be "locked down nice and tight".

'course, you could always jailbr... err, I mean "root" these things... assuming you can find an exploit or some other way to flash a new ROM onto the device. But that has fuck all to do with Android's ostensible "openness".

Re:There is still long way to go

[93 Escort Wagon]

Windows variants are also the same. Windows 7, Windows CE and Windows Mobile are majorly used but it's not always so obvious. When you take a flight all the televisions in airports run Windows. When you go to ATM they run special version of Windows CE. Some hotel TV's also run Windows. With the upcoming Microsoft tablets and Windows Phone 7, it will get even more marketshare. Windows is also used pretty much in every organization and company.

You try to slip the claim through here that Windows is going to gain market share. However anyone who's observed events of the past couple years knows this is not a given. Why, exactly, do you think Microsoft tablets and Windows Phone 7 are going to gain any traction at all?

Microsoft doesn't have the mindshare it once held - even among Windows users.

Re:There is still long way to go

[God'sDuck]

<troll>
"Android is the next Windows" - remember you read that here on /. first...
</troll>

I'm not trolling: I really think that. Feature proliferation and platform proliferation without rigorous attention to bug fixing makes for a dominant but buggy platform. That is my experience with Windows and with Android.
 
Note I am NOT equating Google with Microsoft. They have very different corporate cultures and like every Slashdot member you can guess which I prefer. Also note that I LIKE my Android phone. I'm just saying I see it playing a similar role: device manufacturers slap Windows on crappy PCs with crappy drivers and sell large numbers of them cheap. I see them doing the same with Android. Who knows if the problems on my phone come from Google or Motorola? The point is that the way the system is implemented leaves it open to certain behaviors, and those behaviors are similar between Windows and Android.

Re:There is still long way to go

[xenapan]

Have you tried turning off and on again?

Re:There is still long way to go

[God'sDuck]

As an Android end user, I must say I haven't experienced the "endemic" reliability issues you are talking about. I think your sentiment that Android is "years and year behind the iPhone" is years and years out of date.

That may be. I'm on a Droid 1; it's entirely possible that the problems I'm having come from Motorola's drivers and are not Google native. And the 2.2 update cut my instances of crazy stupid database corruptions dramatically. And its possible the newer, faster processors can multitask more effectively, which would solve the freezes. My next phone might change my mind.

Re:There is still long way to go

[God'sDuck]

Each version is a little better, but it is years and years behind the iPhone for basic reliability

That's an amazing crystal ball you have there. Can you wrap you arms around it?

I'm talking backwards, not forwards -- having been tech support in my office for early gen iPhones, I feel like the current Android OS is still working out things that Apple solved years ago. Going forwards -- of course, who knows? The next update might fix everything. Froyo certainly helped a lot.

I may just be cranky because my phone lost all my podcast subscriptions yesterday from a Google-native app. If nothing else, I expect the phone dialer and the podcasts to work flawlessly.

Re:There is still long way to go

[Spazntwich]

Unreliable technology = easy excuses.

"Sorry mom, facebook chat must have messed up AGAIN!"

Re:There is still long way to go

[shutdown -p now]

I've had my Nexus One crash twice on me since I bought it last January. It's not rooted, and is running stock OS (updated to 2.2 when OTA update came). I've also had Market freeze a few times when auto-updating.

Another annoyance is that the UI has regular "micro-freezes" when it becomes unresponsive for a second or two. Again, Market seems to be particularly susceptible to this, but I've seen it elsewhere as well.

Re:There is still long way to go

[AltairDusk]

My guess would be that GP is not running stock Android but a version modified by the handset manufacturer (or is just running an outdated version like 1.6). Motorola has had some very well-known screw-ups with their Android 2.2 releases for newer phones, likely due to errors made while updating their Motoblur layer. Similarly many HTC phones use Sense and Samsung has TouchWiz. Each of those interfaces requires the manufacturer to essentially roll their own version of Android for each update which opens up the possibility to screw up.

I have never experienced data loss on my N1 running stock Android 2.1 or 2.2, the only freezing I have experienced was running nightly builds of Cyanogen which, being nightlies, are bound to have a few issues. Force closes of an app I see on occasion which you can't blame on Google, it's just something the app developer needs to fix. In addition Android gives you some of the best tools available for backing your data up if you avail yourself of them (Nandroid and Titanium Backup being two big ones).

I'm very happy with my choice, my N1 has actually been more stable than my iPhone 3gs running iphone OS 3.x was once I had jailbroken it and added backgrounder and proswitcher to get usable multitasking along with a few other needed pieces of functionality.

Re:There is still long way to go

[God'sDuck]

My guess would be that GP is not running stock Android but a version modified by the handset manufacturer (or is just running an outdated version like 1.6). Motorola has had some very well-known screw-ups with their Android 2.2 releases for newer phones, likely due to errors made while updating their Motoblur layer..

Your guess is correct.
 
--the GP on a Motorola Droid gen 1

Re:There is still long way to go

[MichaelSmith]

The air traffic control systems along the way will either run a unix variant or linux. Generally the newer systems will run linux.

Re:There is still long way to go

[worx101]

Actually, the whole airport(including the televisions) here runs on RedHat.

Re:There is still long way to go

[assassinator42]

Wait, what? Looking at the Android GIT repo, HTC is the only vendor that has device-specific configuration files publicly available. I'm not sure about the kernel source for their SoCs.

Re:There is still long way to go

[mldi]

...not to mention my Plasma TV (Pioneer) runs on a Linux kernel, and hell, even this digital picture frame I've been staring at the last 10 minutes. First two examples off the top of my head.

Re:There is still long way to go

[mldi]

What on earth are you basing this opinion on? For one, I honestly don't know how you'd be experiencing data losses unless you were doing something you were *really* not supposed to be doing.

Two... being an Android owner and an iPod touch owner myself, I can tell you that my Android device has never frozen up. I may have a misbehaving app once in a long run, but that's rare, and it should vary from app to app. The iPod touch has frozen up on me, but I can count the number of times on one hand, plus I've owned it for a much longer period of time. I have experienced data loss with it too, not from a crash or anything, but from the seemingly inability to successfully back up the device and it's data before this latest OS upgrade. After a day of doing that I had to wipe it just to upgrade. Apps seem to crash the same frequency on both devices.

Three, and I'm really trying hard not to be a fanboy here, but basic reliability? At least with my own device (Evo), as I've said above, I've never had this thing crash, freeze, or randomly reboot on me. Ever. It's still young yet, but it's track record so far speaks for itself. My coworker's new iPhone 4 has frozen on him once (that I've heard about). His 3gs froze quite a number of times though. Sometimes this just happens, and both Android and iOS are light years ahead of RIM and Windows mobile (haven't heard much on Windows 7 mobile yet) in terms of reliability, but I think it's a little ignorant to claim Android is actually behind iOS in terms of reliability.

Now, coming from a cell phone that did nothing but dial numbers, and having been an iPod touch owner for a couple years before I got an Android device, I hold the opinion that Android will hog the market in the near future not only because of sheer number of devices it's on, but because it has proven itself to be reliable and a solid platform to put in a mobile device. I'm not sure it could have gained so much ground so fast if that wasn't the case. It was competing against the marketing powerhouse that is Apple, after all.

Re:There is still long way to go

[wallsg]

I'm having trouble with your analogy:
boiled
mashed
stuck in a stew
baked
french fries
stuffed
potato skins
chips
vodka!

Bubba: Anyway, like I was sayin', shrimp is the fruit of the sea. You can barbecue it, boil it, broil it, bake it, saute it. Dey's uh, shrimp-kabobs, shrimp creole, shrimp gumbo. Pan fried, deep fried, stir-fried. There's pineapple shrimp, lemon shrimp, coconut shrimp, pepper shrimp, shrimp soup, shrimp stew, shrimp salad, shrimp and potatoes, shrimp burger, shrimp sandwich. That- that's about it.

(from IMDB)

Re:There is still long way to go

[matija]

Wait. Your Android device isn't getting an OTA update from your carrier? You can't even GET an OTA update because your only 6 month old device isn't compatible with Froyo? And you have to be even MORE of a carrier bitch and pay out more money just to get Froyo, but you can only get a gimped version with features missing?

I have a two year old Android phone, and I have froyo on it. No, I didn't get it from my carrier. No, I didn't have to pay for it, either. In fact, I had froyo on my phone FASTER than people who were paying their carriers to get it. It's Cyanogen distro, FREE, and fully functional. And it's made possible by the fact that Android is open source.

Re:There is still long way to go

[d3ac0n]

Congratulations. You are the "Alpha Geek" I was talking about. You and your brethren comprise roughly 1% of 1% of the total smartphone market. Meantime the vast majority of Android users who listened to you and bought an Android are getting BONED by the carriers. Nicely done.

Re:There is still long way to go

[d3ac0n]

As I noted to matija below, You are an Alpha geek. you are a tiny percentage of the total smartphone market. I wasn't speaking to you.

However, let us compare; I have 3 relatives with smartphones. One is a Librarian (my wife), one a Business Owner(my father), and one a Salesman(my brother). None have any technical background whatsoever. They represent the vast majority of users of the smartphone market. None of them are on AT&T and none of them want to be. So the iPhone is not an available option as they have already ruled it out.

Tell me, why in the world would they get an Android phone? All of the hacks you so flippantly describe as "easy" are far beyond their knowledge and skill set. They simply cannot do what you can do and it is inappropriate to expect them to take the time to learn. They have other priorities.

Thus they are left with the default install, which anyone who has used an Android device will tell you generally sucks. It's not horrific by any stretch, but it is remarkably inadequate generally speaking.

They all followed my lead and got Palm Pres. I spent about 15 minutes with each of them and taught them how to "hack" the Pre. This consists of keying in the "Konami code" thus unlocking developer mode, and using a simple java program called "WebOS Quick Install" to load up an app called "PreWare". Done.

All of them were amazed at how easy it was to do this, and every one of them is overclocking and modding their Pres using the patches available in PreWare. They are ordinary, non-technical users who have discovered the joy of device modding because WebOS makes it EASY TO DO.

Couple that with the far superior multitasking that WebOS has, and the light years better UI, and about the only thing Android has going for it are slightly newer devices, and the slavering, slavish devotion of Alpha Geeks.

Oh, and I've never owned an Android Device. Investigated them fully, used them multiple times through several OS iterations and keep up on them, but I am a Web OS user.

Based on what I've seen of the competition, I intend to stay that way for the foreseeable future.

Re:There is still long way to go

[Miamicanes]

The Nexus One and Dream are both by HTC and are the only "official" developer devices (hence, their official presence in the official Android source repo), but the Samsung Galaxy S is the only recent family that's NOT an officially-blessed development device that nevertheless has a buildable kernel with proprietary drivers properly-implemented as loadable kernel modules available for download anyway.

The kernel source for every OTHER phone sold by HTC is a mess, with proprietary binaries compiled straight into the kernel in complete violation of both the letter and spirit of the GPL2, and simply ripped out of the source before HTC releases it publicly.

Put another way, if you download the source to the Evo and Epic4G from the respective manufacturers and set out to compile a brand new kernel from scratch, you'll have a fairly easy task with the Epic, and a very, very difficult task with the Evo. The Epic had custom kernels before it even had a 100% working replacement bootloader. The Evo's homebrew scene has worked miracles, but the Epic's (and by extension, Galaxy S family's) developers had it handed to them on a gold platter with a hot fudge sundae for dessert.

Right now, the Galaxy S family is pretty much the most open rom-development-officially-unsupported family of Android phones you can buy. The supreme irony, in fact, is that it's a LOT harder to root a Nexus One in a way that can be secretly unrooted later should a warranty repair be necessary (See, HTC apparently never heard of a law called the Magnuson-Moss Warranty Act that basically says point blank that you can't categorically invalidate a product's warranty unless you can demonstrate that the failure was a direct result of the consumer's allegedly warranty-voiding act; the law gives consumers specific FTC-enforced rights that can't be waived or disclaimed -- especially not by a contract of adhesion). HTC makes a point of shooting itself in the foot. Samsung just remains silent, looks the other way, and lets its users have their fun.

Re:There is still long way to go

[AltairDusk]

Have you considered a custom ROM? I have a few friends with the Droid that are running Bugless Beast and absolutely love it. I believe CyanogenMod may be available for the Droid as well, I've found it to be an excellent ROM on my N1.

The bigger question is...

[balaband]

Is resistance necessary?

Re:The bigger question is...

[Anonymous Coward]

Of course. A culture of 'one', no matter how open, is bad.

Having the competition to allow other options makes sure there is advancement in the market, and, if there is a vulnerability in one of the options, the others are available to take up the slack.

Re:The bigger question is...

[Anonymous Coward]

That's why it's essential that it can be rooted/jailbroken.

Re:The bigger question is...

[sakdoctor]

At room temperature; yes.

Re:The bigger question is...

[gman003]

It's going to be the same thing that happened with server Unix systems: Linux takes over, and then everyone bickers about which distro to use. Now, Android is taking over mobiles, and people are already bickering about versions and upgrades. There will always be options, it's just that now there's a common basis between the options.

Re:The bigger question is...

[PitaBred]

Yes. Everybody drinking water is bad. Doesn't matter that you can make juice out of it, or soda, or beer... water as the base for all of it is horribly insecure and dangerous!

Re:The bigger question is...

[MorpheousMarty]

Is resistance necessary?

That question is presupposing resistance isn't futile. If it is futile, it doesn't matter whether you need to or want to.

Re:The bigger question is...

[Arthur Grumbine]

Looks like someone is trying to take the crown from BadAnalogyGuy.

Hopefully not

[Anonymous Coward]

I'd rather see MeeGo taking a sizeable portion of market from Android. With MeeGo, desktop Linux skills suddenly become very relevant in job market, and we'll get more desktop software (eventually).

With Android, Java skills are everything and... um... we got more people capable of doing Websphere/JBoss stuff? What a victory would that be.

Re:Hopefully not

[Craig Ringer]

Alas, Nokia kind of missed the boat with Maemo/MeeGo. They let Maemo idle for years on the no-cellular tablets that were interesting, but never really went anywhere. Then they tossed the N900 out the door - just as they decided to massively rework the OS, effectively EOLing the N900's OS before it was released. Unsurprisingly, app developer interest has been ... limited. *I* know you can upgrade an N900 to MeeGo (when it's properly ready, hopefully) but Nokia hasn't been too clear on this and it's unlikely app devs will want to target a platform where users have to reflash to a new OS to run their apps.

I love coding with Qt and have wanted it in phones for ages, so I was really excited to see Maemo move over - but the timing, amid a product launch, was horrifying.

MeeGo would've been great if it (instead of Maemo half-way through an API breaking transition to Qt) was released in finished form at about the time the N900 hit market. Now, by the time it sees real-world products, I think Android will be pretty much unstoppable, especially as it's now allowing native apps, the main advantage MeeGo had. I don't rate it's chances.

Personally I like MeeGo a lot more as a concept of how a phone OS works. It's my phone, not the carrier's / handset manufacturer's phone that I happened to pay for. Unfortunately, carriers (especially in the US) don't like that, and given the likely higher prices and limited app coverage of MeeGo, I don't see it going far.

Were I Intel and Nokia, I'd be thinking very hard about offering Dalvik and .apk support for apps without native code, at least for a subset of Android API features. Get some app coverage from the start, but encourage targeting of Qt by offering Qt Jambi from Java and offering better API access via the native interfaces. Be a better Android than Android.

Re:Hopefully not

[drinkypoo]

With Android, Java skills are everything and... um... we got more people capable of doing Websphere/JBoss stuff? What a victory would that be.

You are free to use the Android NDK, develop your entire app in some other language, and write only the front-end in Java. But let's not let the facts get in the way of a good mad or anything.

Re:Hopefully not

[gmuslera]

MeeGo seem to be targetted for the same kind of devices than Android, but as still didnt come out to compete. In cellphones Nokia won't take out cellphones with it till next year, and other devices with it are slow to come out, if any (WeTab? cars?). So so far is only having a good potential, only time will tell.

Regarding apps, there the needed skill will be more likely Qt instead of Java. There the apps have the potential to run or be easily ported in more things than just MeeGo, like desktop operating systems (or even other mobile operating systems).

The last part of the equation could be the market, where ive hear some concerns about Android one. That is a factor in the flow of apps for that platform. Will be an app market for Meego too (appupp? ovi?), but not a lot of apps yet, so not sure if it will catch steam. At least in that front, from the Maemo experience, a good number of linux apps can be ported to it (and most maemo apps)

Re:Hopefully not

[Lifyre]

MeeGo (or in some cases Debian Lenny with MeeGo on top) will live on in some ways as a custom ROM for the Android phones. Many people are currently working on moving it over to phones like the Eris and the Droids. It gives these phones a useful lifetime beyond that of a phone. It can be useful having a phone sized device that can run things like snort or hit the local WiFi for a quick search while still leaving your phone free to make calls.

Re:Hopefully not

[justleavealonemmmkay]

I'd rather see MeeGo taking a sizeable portion of market from Android. With MeeGo, desktop Linux skills suddenly become very relevant in job market, and we'll get more desktop software (eventually).

With Android, Java skills are everything and... um... we got more people capable of doing Websphere/JBoss stuff? What a victory would that be.

Nobody cares about you being unemployed with your irrelevant linux skills.

Re:Hopefully not

[icebraining]

You can also use other languages for the Dalvik, like Scala.

Re:Hopefully not

[RyuuzakiTetsuya]

I don't think so.

I am an iOS fanboy and I will talk a lot of smack about Android. The reality is though, for it's flaws, Android is very good but it's so close to being great it's frustrating.

What Google needs to do is set some pretty basic UI guidelines for apps or make better UI APIs and to crack down on handset lock down(I'm willing to put up with Apple's walled garden approach because they deliver what they claim. Google can't be hollering about how their OS is open and at the same time require people to root their phones). Desktop OSes suck on mobile devices(see Windows Mobile) and Android is probably the best commodity OS out there. Although WP7 looks promising. Haven't used a WP7 device yet.

Re:Hopefully not

[Aceticon]

Enterprise Edition Java (J2EE) is an enormous amount of libraries, frameworks and standards which are designed for large Enterprise Systems and deal with things like Messaging, Distributed Transactions, Clustering and more (much more). Websphere and JBoss are two implementations of a J2EE application server which is a container server within which J2EE applications run. It takes several years of on-the-job experience to be proeficient with J2EE in addition to the time it takes to learn standard Java.

J2EE is to standard Java like Windows MFC is to standard C - a huge bucketload of libraries/frameworks which sit on top of the standard language and are only usefull in a specific context.

Java for Android on the other hand is a subset of the standard Java plus the Android specific libraries and is not at all designed for enterprise computing.

Saying that people that learn Java because of Android will be capable of doing Websphere/JBoss is like saying that people that learn C to code batch programs in Unix are capable of doing full blown Windows GUI applications, only the distance is much greater.

PS: Sorry, no car metaphor.

Re:Hopefully not

[Microlith]

MeeGo (or in some cases Debian Lenny with MeeGo on top) will live on in some ways as a custom ROM for the Android phones.

Doubtful. Userspace graphics drivers like those used for PowerVR and Qualcomm's chipsets aren't compatible with X11, so you'll be stuck with a second rate device.

Re:Hopefully not

[Lifyre]

It's already on the Eris, granted it's cumbersome to use at the moment but it does work.

Re:Hopefully not

[melikamp]

Unsurprisingly, app developer interest has been ... limited.

And yet I can run things like python out of the box, and things like ssh(d), emacs, LaTeX, mplayer with minimal effort. As long as they make a phone with hardware capable of running a current GNU/Linux OS (e.g., armel, just like N900), they don't need to think about developers: not any more than Dell has to think about developers when it sells us Intels and AMDs. N900 is almost there, but it just lacks RAM needed to build large projects. Once they cram the development chain (basically, gcc and the libs) into this form factor, we will have a complete GNU/Linux OS on these devices. The whole shabang. And literally overnight. That's all I ever want from a computer, mobile or not. I just want it to run all free software written up to this point, and this is NOT asking for too much.

Re:Hopefully not

[Microlith]

Were I Intel and Nokia, I'd be thinking very hard about offering Dalvik and .apk support for apps without native code, at least for a subset of Android API features. Get some app coverage from the start, but encourage targeting of Qt by offering Qt Jambi from Java and offering better API access via the native interfaces. Be a better Android than Android.

And completely defeat the purpose of using Qt and the entire reason for MeeGo's existence by placing a dependence on Google? Doesn't help that you'd be locked out of the Android market.

Re:Hopefully not

[CAIMLAS]

Absolutely.

Meego (supposedly?) uses QT like Maemo before it.

QT is very, very easy to develop for. I can hack something together in a couple hours and I've never worked on a 'real' development project before. Short of Visual Studio, it's the easiest GUI development tool I've ever touched (QT Embedded and Kdevelop).

There are a LOT of tools already written to use QT + KDE, and using QT libraries alone would probably not be such a jump as to rewrite things from scratch in Java. And then there are all the QT + python/perl/etc. tools out there, which will be just as useful.

In all honesty, I'm actually thinking of picking up a Symbian phone due to their QT integration and the recent news on that front. From the sounds of it, it looks like it might actually be the best 'geekable' thing we'll have going forward for some time - provided Nokia does not fall apart in the meantime due to politics.

Re:Hopefully not

[Abcd1234]

You are free to use the Android NDK, develop your entire app in some other language, and write only the front-end in Java. But let's not let the facts get in the way of a good mad or anything.

Wow, what part of *desktop Linux skills* don't you understand? Last I checked, your average desktop Linux app didn't have a Java frontend.

Besides which... mad? What?

But hey, let's not let reading comprehension get in the way of a good flaming or anything.

Re:Hopefully not

[Rennt]

Actually, there is a bunch of devices running X11 on PowerVR - the OpenPandora is first that one pops to mind.

Re:Hopefully not

[GameboyRMH]

Userspace graphics drivers like those used for PowerVR and Qualcomm's chipsets aren't compatible with X11

Good thing nobody told my N900 that...

If Android is unstoppable I'll still look forward to using Meego as the "DD-WRT of phones," it'll be way better than running a rooted Android build. Maybe the community can even work on switching it back to apt-based package management.

Re:Hopefully not

[GameboyRMH]

Once they cram the development chain (basically, gcc and the libs) into this form factor, we will have a complete GNU/Linux OS on these devices.

You can do that within Easy Debian at least - switch to the Squeeze repos and install build-essential.

Re:Hopefully not

[shutdown -p now]

The native widget toolkit for Maemo was Gtk, not Qt. Qt was a later addition (IIRC after N900 was released).

But, yes, Qt is awesome, and I wish it would become the dev platform for mobile devices. It's almost as easy to use as Java, and has all the speed of C++ - and lets you use all its power as well. Not to mention the libraries.

Re:Hopefully not

[dr.newton]

You are free to use the Android NDK, develop your entire app in some other language, and write only the front-end in Java. But let's not let the facts get in the way of a good mad or anything.

Wow, what part of *desktop Linux skills* don't you understand? Last I checked, your average desktop Linux app didn't have a Java frontend.

Besides which... mad? What?

But hey, let's not let reading comprehension get in the way of a good flaming or anything.

I see you took the GP's advice. That was a very good mad. ;)

IN B4...

[RMH101]

IN B4 "Android Fragmentation"

Re:IN B4...

[doramjan]

You've got the wrong Soong-type android. With the Borg reference and the Android reference, you should have mentioned Lore, not B4.

Re:IN B4...

[FauxPasIII]

True, but B4 definitely is a better example of "Android Fragmentation", at least when they first find him...

Re:IN B4...

[Quantum Jim]

IN B4 "Android Fragmentation"

Wasn't that part of the plot to one of the Star Trek movies?

iOS Short Term, Android Long Term

[eldavojohn]

The Android Invasion Cometh; Is Resistance Futile?

Look both options have their benefits. But I happen to agree with a recent survey that finds developers think Android is the long term solution while iOS is basically the immediate choice because of its dominance it has enjoyed with being the first. Given that the obvious is already happening, it's just going to take two or three years for developers to really unseat anything else in favor over Android. I was never given a chance to tinker or code for iOS so of course I'm biased towards the one technology out there that is actually trying to empower me without restrictions.

In the end, that sort of empowerment is going to trump any sort of assured device capability or graphical power that Apple can offer me. You may have a different opinion (BWJones did) but I simply cannot see how Apple will retain their lead in this fight.

Resistance is never futile. You could stick to your guns and enjoy immediate sales then moderate sales then fewer and fewer sales. Or you could enjoy moderate sales and then increasingly more and more sales. You might have to do more development if you want to target both TVs and handhelds (inputs get tricky) but I think investing in only iOS at this point is not a prudent decision.

Re:iOS Short Term, Android Long Term

[Pojut]

not if there will be different proprietary marketplaces for each handset. at which point entry costs for developer will become a problem.

Sorry, but...could you explain further? I know there are a ton of third-party app stores, but "the" android market is still by far the largest one, and is accessible from pretty much every android handset.

What are you referring to?

Re:iOS Short Term, Android Long Term

[Anonymous Coward]

developers think Android is the long term solution while iOS is basically the immediate choice because of its dominance it has enjoyed with being the first.

What the developers think is irrelevant it's what's the consumers buy that matters.

Re:iOS Short Term, Android Long Term

[rvelasquez]

IMHO the big fight for Android is brand recognition/differentiation. When I look around my large extended family almost all of them are using iPods and iPhones. Even my elderly father knows about iPhone and iPod and has been asking me questions about these devices. Although I haven't, I'm pretty sure that if I asked one of my family members about Android they wouldn't know what I'm talking about. At best they might know it's made by Google. They certainly wouldn't know why Android is better. Even when I speak to people who have Android devices, the usual reasons they give me for Android being better is that the device and app stores are not locked down. Neither of these reasons really make any difference to most people since it's usually very niche apps that get rejected from the app store. Try telling a kid he has a limited device while play Plant vs Zombies, or GTA China Town Wars. I believe that until Android can become a household name it will struggle to dominate market. In fact I think that the recent surge of Android sales is really just filling the void of potential smartphone users who didn't want to go with Apple. Once this void fills up I think sales are going to slow down again.

Re:iOS Short Term, Android Long Term

[molnarcs]

I agree completely with your post. I just wanted to add that probably iOS as an immediate choice for developers already developing for it. The App Store is pretty much close to being saturated, for a developer just starting out, it is harder to make an impact or get noticed. I'd say that for new developers the fact that Android has fewer apps might actually be an advantage besides having roughly the same market share (or at least being in the same ballpark).

Re:iOS Short Term, Android Long Term

[whisper_jeff]

In the end, that sort of empowerment is going to trump any sort of assured device capability or graphical power that Apple can offer me.

In the end, that sort of empowerment is going to take second seat to where the money is. Developers who do it for the passion of doing it will develop for whatever platform they enjoy developing on. The rest, who are trying to keep food on their tables, roofs over their heads, and retirement plans in mind will go where the money is. And, right now, and for the foreseeable future, that's _both_ Android and iOS. The only way that will change in the long term is if and when something unknown enters the market and shakes up the status quo but, at this time, the status quo is there are really only two markets - Android and iOS - and neither is going away, despite what anyone claims via their FUD.

Re:iOS Short Term, Android Long Term

[RyuuzakiTetsuya]

I simply cannot see how Apple will retain their lead in this fight.

Easy. They sell more hardware than any given OEM.

Apple doesn't need to pick fights with Google, they need to pick fights with RIM, HTC, Samsung, Motorola, et al.

Re:iOS Short Term, Android Long Term

[bberens]

I can't imagine a different entry point for each handset. At worst you'd have one for each carrier. So ATT, Verizon, TMobile, Sprint/Nextel. Four meaningful app stores, a hand full or so regional providers if you're really interested...

Re:iOS Short Term, Android Long Term

[bberens]

[Citation Needed]

Re:iOS Short Term, Android Long Term

[Americano]

And if iOS is the best platform ever, but no developers are developing for it... consumers (eventually) won't buy it, because they can get all the cool apps and features they want on Android.

I like iOS, don't get me wrong. I also think Google missed a huge opportunity to do right by consumers by forcing some of the 'if you want to call it Android, customers must be able to do X, Y, Z with this OS" issues (which may have prevented some of the increasingly carrier-restricted things we're seeing in Android). But you can't pretend that stock iOS devices with no developers putting out apps for them are going to compete with "anything goes" Android which will only continue to grow more polished & more functional over time.

iOS needs to compete for developers to stay relevant in the mobile space, and I think at some point Apple is going to have to either open iOS up to installing arbitrary packages without going through them, or throw out their guidelines and say "we will only stop listings where there is obvious bad behavior." I think they're more likely to allow arbitrary installs - then it's "You install it, your risk. Our app store is still clean & curated." - but allowing that would kill most of the serious criticism of iOS as an Android competitor. People will still carp about it being "not open source," but that's mostly irrelevant to the consumers, if they can install whatever software they want on the phone. Apple probably wouldn't lose a *significant* amount of business from the App Store by doing this, either. It'd make apps sort of like mp3s - Apple operates a store that they think is the best way to buy music, but if you want to buy through Amazon, or Emusic, or rip your own, well... you can still use them on your Apple device.

At this point, I'm most interested to see how iOS fares once the iPhone is available on more than one carrier in the US. I think the question that remains to be answered is, are people buying Android handsets because the iPhone isn't available on their carrier, and they don't want to switch to AT&T? Or are people buying Android handsets because they prefer them to the iPhone? I haven't seen any comparison of Android vs. iPhone sales specific to AT&T, so it'll be an interesting scenario to watch play out.

Re:iOS Short Term, Android Long Term

[Anonymous Coward]

Do most people even know that phones have operating systems?

I think what's happening is that people go to the store or a web shop and they buy a phone that they think they will like. Android happens to be on a lot of those phones.

Android should probably not be branded as a primary consumer brand, but more as a solid underlying technology, analogous to how computers say things like "Intel inside" or "Works with Windows 7".

Re:iOS Short Term, Android Long Term

[sarhjinian]

Yes, but the differences are important:

• It's a mass-market, consumer device, not an enthusiast or business-tilted device. "Openness" means squat to the mass market
• It's not 1985 (see above; people's expectation are much different)
• The price difference isn't as evident (remember what a Mac cost?)
• The functionality difference isn't as evident (remember how utterly horrible DOS was?)

Re:iOS Short Term, Android Long Term

[Americano]

So complacency leading to long term irrelevance is a valid business strategy now?

As I said, I *like* iOS, and I like Apple's approach. But nowhere in the history of business will you find precedent to support your suppositions. I don't know what you're basing your conclusions on, except some sort of blind devotion.

"We've had tons of customers for a long time, so that'll never change no matter what happens," is not a business strategy.

Re:iOS Short Term, Android Long Term

[dzfoo]

>> And if iOS is the best platform ever, but no developers are developing for it... consumers (eventually) won't buy it, because they can get all the cool apps and features they want on Android.

Right, like when no customers were buying it when it came out--a whole year of which went without custom native apps.

          -dZ.

Re:iOS Short Term, Android Long Term

[dzfoo]

Notice something curious in one of those links you offered:
      ".../android_outsells_the_iphone_no_big_surprise.html"

Do you see it? It's the comparison of the iPhone--a selling product which customers can pick up online and at a store and ask by name--versus Android--a free operating systems that smart-phone manufacturers choose to include with their kit.

That is very telling, indeed. It means that manufacturers (the ones actually selling products containing Android) are going to have a hard time differentiating between each other in order to compete and make money. After all, their products are mere generic Android phones, no? If so, and they have trouble making money, how are they going to invest in innovating new features to stand above the competition?

        -dZ.

Re:iOS Short Term, Android Long Term

[jo42]

And if iOS is the best platform ever, but no developers are developing for it... consumers (eventually) won't buy it, because they can get all the cool apps and features they want on Android.

The point that you are missing here is that developers also need to pay the bills and feed themselves and their families. Right now all the money (AKA making a living) is in iOS apps and work. Until very recently you could only make a few pesos off of Android apps in only 9 countries.

Re:iOS Short Term, Android Long Term

[RyuuzakiTetsuya]

If instead of looking at the numbers of iOS devices sold versus Android, look at the number of Apple devices sold versus any other vendor. Right now, in the desktop and mobile computing markets, Apple is in the top 5 of all OEMs.

Re:iOS Short Term, Android Long Term

[Americano]

Right, because their options in the market were... what, exactly, when the iPhone came out?

Remind me again - which consumer smartphones were available when the iPhone debuted? Windows was a turd. Blackberries were business phones. Palm was more or less dead.

The market has changed, and iOS has viable competition now. But I suppose you think that refusing to compete is how a company goes about attracting new customers and retaining existing customers?

Re:iOS Short Term, Android Long Term

[Americano]

No, I haven't missed that point at all.

What I described was the situation Apple would have to confront if, as the post I replied to suggested, "what developers think is irrelevant," and thereby concluding that Android wouldn't be a long-term threat to iOS.

If Apple drives developers away, or lets Android lure them away, where do you think the developers will go, exactly, and where do you think the consumers will go once they realize that the Android phones are no more expensive than iPhones, and offer cool new features that the devs won't bother porting?

Re:iOS Short Term, Android Long Term

[JesseDegenerate]

Your problem is you hate iOS because Apple makes it, and you love Android because Google makes it. Open open open, you talk like there's no way to get root and ssh access on a iphone. Your next argument is "why should i have to jailbreak" to which i'll ask "did you root your android" It's also funny how the voice of android can be heard throughout the geek sites of the internet so loud, that i'm sure you think the world is responding when you talk about it. There not. Probably not even listening to there's till 3 times the Apps in the apple appstore, still massive blazing holes and untested ground on android. You still have oracle basically telling you to take your dev kit and shove it up your ass. Your still missing a ton of useful apps (webex, retrospect, a real vnc client, VLC) and the Rooting scene is laughable when compared to cydia and the entire separate app store for jailbroken devices. You were never given a chance to tinker with code for iOS? why not just go register as a dev? You can get the entire kit for $99 Cause your bias? Then you have Google. Who else would you give all your personal information on your smart phone too... an advertiser. Eric Schmidt thinks people are going to have to change there names to get away from there past indiscretions, and steve jobs is eccentric? He's also on record against your own personal privacy. "if you want to hide it, maybe you shouldn't be doing it" Google needs to google discretion.

Re:iOS Short Term, Android Long Term

[EXrider]

developers think Android is the long term solution while iOS is basically the immediate choice because of its dominance it has enjoyed with being the first.

What the developers think is irrelevant it's what's the consumers buy that matters.

...and many consumers will go to the platform where the most useful free, and high quality paid apps are available, so developers are also somewhat important.

Re:iOS Short Term, Android Long Term

[BitZtream]

iOS wasn't the first, lets make that clear now. There have been other smartphone OSes for years. They just aren't really popular because they are more or less directed at geeks and a niche of business people.

The iPhone is just REALLY popular because something made the general public LOVE the damn thing. Geeks don't always love it. Business people don't always love it, but a vast amount of people do. It was really the first smartphone type device (its a little weak when compared to other smartphones, no argument) that the general public WANTED to use. Maybe it was the ads (Doubt it, they sucked), maybe its just because its trendy, maybe because its the right mix of tech and easy of use for the common man (my personal opinion), or maybe its just the hand of God ... err Steve that makes people buy it, I really don't know.

What I do know is ... no one else has figured it out either cause there still isn't any competition thats owning its target markets like iOS is.

As for making money. Lets be realistic. Android right now means a few sales, not moderate sales. It will certainly increase as devices are being sold, but it doesn't have anywhere near the installed base as iOS does. Which means your choice really is

Option 1: Have a large target market with a tiny amount of devices to target right now and the potential for it to get smaller later and completely ignore Android.

OR

Option 2: Have a small market now, have to target a bunch of different devices to reach the entirety of that market, and have the potential for that market to grow later. Completely ignore iOS.

Except those aren't the only options.

Option 3: The intelligent option is to target the iPhone now and make money off it now, maybe develop an Android version if there is interest after you release the iOS version and build it out as time goes on and the demand for Android apps goes up and you know people actually WANT your application and are willing to pay for it.

If you think Option 1 and 2 are the only ones, you're an idiot and you'd be really shitty at running your own business. You don't put all your eggs in one basket. You do take advantages of 'easy money' now and you PLAN for how to make money in the future, which means investing some effort into Android as soon as you have the spare resources, which could be today, could be next year.

Whatever you do, you don't back yourself into a corner of some retarded ideological philosophy because you're fanboying it up for Linux. You won't even find a successful company that revolves around Linux that does NOTHING but stuff for Linux.

Re:iOS Short Term, Android Long Term

[bberens]

Apple is not in the top 5 OEMs for either PC sales OR cell phone sales. Anything else?

Re:iOS Short Term, Android Long Term

[JanneM]

New Android phones are prominently displayed as having Android here in Japan. The latest AU commercial for one phone (the Sharp IS03) actually headlines Android and mentions the phone name only in passing. So yes, public awareness is probably pretty high.

Re:iOS Short Term, Android Long Term

[RyuuzakiTetsuya]

7th.

Oops. I thought it was 5th.

They have a marketcap that exceeds Microsoft's right now. You don't have to sell #1, just be profitable. It's what got Nintendo through the N64 and GC days.

Re:iOS Short Term, Android Long Term

[Dr Max]

Apple doesn't need to pick fights with Google, they need to pick fights with RIM, HTC, Samsung, Motorola, et al.

Apple is well aware of that, and they are all ready getting down and dirty with the suing everyone. Except for Samsung, they could fight them if they want but considering Samsung makes most of the iphone hardware they would be shooting themself in the foot.

Re:iOS Short Term, Android Long Term

[bberens]

Apple produces only a small fraction of the cell phones manufactured each year. I couldn't find where Apple is on the list but the 5th top PC manufacturer produces only about 5% of the computers out there. Your original position was that Apple sells more hardware than any other OEM. You haven't provided a single bit of evidence. Now you're talking about market cap which is completely different.

Under this ugly face

[kavehmz]

Yes, and it needs to be loved

Re:Apple?

[weachiod]

I think Apple might have a thing or two to say about that...

Apple doesn't sell competing products to this, Microsoft does.

Re:I think ...

[js3]

this is exactly what statistics are for, it's way better than your anecdotal evidence.

Sigh...

[Anonymous Coward]

I for one, welcome our new Linux based non-pc consumer device operating system overlords!

Someone had to say it...

Numbers, numbers

[mbone]

I sure don't see the kind of numbers Gartner is talking about. I see lots of iPhones, not many Androids, and never hear "civilians" talking about the Android. There is a Android kiosk in my local mall - I don't see any lines in front of it.

So, pardon me if I doubt.

Re:Numbers, numbers

[slyrat]

I sure don't see the kind of numbers Gartner is talking about. I see lots of iPhones, not many Androids, and never hear "civilians" talking about the Android. There is a Android kiosk in my local mall - I don't see any lines in front of it.

So, pardon me if I doubt.

Whereas I barely see any apple products anymore. In fact I have several friends who this year switched from iPhone to Android in part because of the antenna problems with iPhone and the 4G android that came out. After the fact they really enjoyed the android more than the iPhone they had.

Re:Numbers, numbers

[tepples]

Android is [...] the default platform for people who don't think to ask what platform they want.

I thought the default platform was BREW, seen on feature phones. People who get a smartphone in the first place are already "ask[ing] what platform they want" to some extent.

Re:Numbers, numbers

[I_M_Noman]

OK, I'll play too - in my small group it breaks out as 5 iOS devices (2 iPhone, 3 iPod Touch), 2 Blackberries, 1 WebOS, 0 Android. As I look around the floor to other groups I see 1 Android, 15 or 20 iPhones, 3 or 4 more Blackberries, and a bunch of dumbphones and "messaging phones".

So YMMV, as always.

Re:Numbers, numbers

[Nadaka]

In my cube farm there are 3~5? blackberries, 1 iphone, at least 7+ android phones plus a handful of older feature phones or simple phones.

Why resist? Skynet loves us, what could possibly

[qwerty8ytrewq]

go wrong?

Re:I think ...

[John Hasler]

> I'll see 4 iPhones, a couple Nokia's and one Android based device.

So what you see is that Android is third. Isn't that what the article says?

jump the gun much?

[gblfxt]

your looking 4 years in the future for an OS that has only been around for 2 years..... they way things are changing, i'm sure by 2014 we will have some new crazier gadget/os, and whoever is raving on about IOS or android will be looked on as old farts......

Yes, Android will win eventually

[rclandrum]

Apple - being Apple - will continue to concentrate on the overall user experience of their mobile devices. They will retain their reputation as the maker of mercedes-benz smartphones and other consumer goods, but the sheer volume of Android-based competition will eventually swamp them out of the lower-end of the market. Apple could probably care less - Steve and co. are all about the total experience and crafting the perfect device, and that's fine - they can lead the market in innovation and be the brand that everyone aspires to become. But the droid wave must eventually wash over them and absolutely eat their low-end lunch, and since most of the world ain't rich, that mean most of the world is going to be droid-powered, unless Apple can undercut droid prices, and that just isn't how they roll.

Re:Yes, Android will win eventually

[Anonymous Coward]

It's that kind of typical Apple fanaticism that will allow Android to eat their lunch. I've had an Android phone for six months that can do everything my partner's phone can do and a hell of a lot more besides (admittedly she's using a 3GS, I can't comment on the iPhone 4, but from what I've read about it in the press I'm not exactly green with envy). She's had her iPhone for 7 months and really wants to replace it with the same model as me. I even prefer the look and feel of my phone, although I realise that's entirely objective, and price-wise they were roughly the same when I bought this. I desperately hope that Google don't have aspirations to make Android like iOS, because I think it's already the better system and that would be a big step backwards.

Re:Yes, Android will win eventually

[molnarcs]

My girlfriend had the same reaction when I showed her my Nexus One, or rather, Android. She has a 3GS, wants something with Android next, not necessarily something like the Nexus (she said the design is too manly, wants something more girlish - she has good taste though, so I'm not talking about pink with cute cats, rather something a bit slimmer, in white or maybe silver color).

Re:Yes, Android will win eventually

[bemymonkey]

Even as a very satisfied HTC Desire user (read: rabid Android fanboy), I've got to say that I quite disagree with you there.

The iPhone4 is simply a stunning piece of hardware that has yet to be matched by any of the Android offerings. The OS, while clunky, is smoother and more intuitive in many parts, and offers pretty much everything rooted Android offers when jailbroken.

If the iPhone4 was as cheap as the Desire or Galaxy S, I doubt those devices would have anywhere near this many users. Sad, but likely true...

Re:Yes, Android will win eventually

[Carpathius]

On shear volume, Android will probably win, if fo no other reason than (as others have said) Apple isn't competing in the low end market.

I develop for both -- I own an iPhone, and I bought my son an Android so I could test.

The Android's UI isn't nearly as nice as the iPhone's. There are a bunch of pay-for-me apps showing that can't be deleted. It's slower and more difficult to use. Now, some, maybe even all of that could be fixed by installing a newer version of Android (assuming it's finally available for the device). Certainly I could reinstall the OS on the thing and get rid of the the pay-for-me apps. But with the iPhone, I don't have to. No advertising crap is was on the phone when I received it. Yeah, Apple concentrates on the user experience, and that experience is *far* better than the current Android user experience.

The other issue is that Android is becoming very fragmented, and developers and going to get more and more frustrated in trying to test applications that work on one device and not another.

I was excited about Android when I first heard about it. But the reality is that Google has let it become much less than it could have been.

Sean.

Re:Yes, Android will win eventually

[DragonWriter]

I desperately hope that Google don't have aspirations to make Android like iOS, because I think it's already the better system and that would be a big step backwards.

Its worth noting that Google doesn't own Android, the Open Handset Alliance does. And that includes carriers, software/services companies, handset makers, and semiconductor firms. Keeping that group together is pretty incompatible with establish Apple-like control.

Re:Yes, Android will win eventually

[mlts]

To get my iPhone to have some of the features of the Droid X sitting right by it requires jailbreaking and installing apps. For example, if I want to see a list of E-mail, appointments, or to dos without having to unlock the device, it requires unlocking the screen unless I install LockInfo. The Droid X has a nice message light to warn of impending doom, be it a meeting, critical mail, or just a FB message from someone cool. When the screen is woken up, it is easy to tell via widgets who sent what for a message without having to actively fire up an app. Even the weather icon shows the temperature and sunny/cloudy/rainy.

If people like buttons, Android provides that. If people prefer widgets to see more stuff at a glance, that is also present.

Re:Yes, Android will win eventually

[mlts]

Windows Phone 7 will be gunning for the Blackberry market with strong encryption and the ability to use SharePoint directly from the device. Because Microsoft is the only game in town when it comes to corporate messaging with Exchange [1], having a device that is tightly coupled with it will be something that gives it a permanent berth in a lot of enterprises.

Windows Phone 7 also will have the ability to stream what you want, like Spotify. Apple made sure Spotify isn't going to ever see daylight on US soil, and Microsoft has a large scale music store with the Zune Marketplace. So, for the usual subscription fee, being able to stream/download most stuff out there will be a plus.

Of course, there is the XBox 360 cross-pollination. This may make the device a good add-on for gaming, especially with games that interface with a console. I can see a game based on collectible cards where people have their decks stored on their WP7 devices, and play hands using the XBox 360 as a go-between, all communicating via Wi-Fi or Bluetooth.

So, MS has a tough road ahead of them, but it is not impossible. It wasn't that long ago when the iPhone was announced and people were laughing at Apple for trying to fight their way into an extremely crowded and well-entrenched market.

[1]: I wish IBM would revitalize Notes/Domino... they have the only product out there that would even come close to competing with MS directly in this arena.

desktops next

[circletimessquare]

most people reading here are desktop-centric, and the smartphone os is a secondary platform, in terms of work, play, and psychological orientation

but we are rapidly entering a world that is smartphone-centric, and the desktop os is a secondary platform, in terms of work, play, and psychological orientation. the whole desktop segment will be marginal

google can ride this psychological shift to get android/ chrome os onto the desktop market. the shift will be second nature, not an alien intrusion. and it will happen with a whimper, not a bang: who cares about the desktop except old people?

the only people making noise about this "big deal", this great promise of unseating microsoft in the desktop market, chattered about on slashdot for over a decade, will be old people. the idea of using a desktop will be a fossil idea, that only fossils will care about. like looking at greybeards from the 80s with their funny unix command line interfaces

in which case, "resistance is futile" is a good allusion, because google will be the new microsoft. cue bill gates slashdot borg icon morphing into a sergey brin/ larry page borg icon. nevermind that even the idea of "the borg" is a silly scifi notion from last century that only old people even care or know about

slashdot, we're showing our age

Re:desktops next

[LordDragoon]

"who cares about the desktop except old people?" Hardcore PC Gamers.

Re:desktops next

[MBGMorden]

And people with jobs actually working with data. I work in local government. Call me crazy, but I just don't see a future where our permitting clerks are sitting at the counter entering new permits and printing invoices from a phone screen. I don't see us entering tax payments on that either. The same applies to most existing industry.

Now, those devices certainly DO have uses. For instance, we have building inspectors that I'd LOVE to setup with touch screen phones or pads so that they could do inspections in the field and upload the results back. Same with property appraisers and possibly even our EMS people.

You have to stop trying to look at it as one technology "winning out" over the other. The simple fact is that for a ton of things the desktop is a better UI. For a ton of other things handheld touch devices are. If you try to shoehorn either into working in all situations, you're going to end up being terrible in many situations.

Consider it this way: a wrench works pretty poorly for driving nails. You can make it work, but it's aggravating. Once you finally get a hammer, everything might start looking like a nail for a while, but realistically, there are still a lot of things you're going to need that old wrench for - don't throw it out.

The desktop will continue to be relevant for decades - quite possibly for as long as we have a technological future. The only change is that it won't be the ONLY thing that's relevant anymore.

Re:desktops next

[vlm]

but we are rapidly entering a world that is smartphone-centric

So I've heard, for about ten years, from the "tech journalist" crowd. But only from them, not the rest of the world. Most folks simply nod their head in unthinking agreement, or simply ignore them, but no one believes them.

slashdot, we're showing our age

aka wisdom

Re:desktops next

[bwintx]

Hmm. Write back when your vision is no longer 20/20, particularly for near-vision. You'll probably get there sooner than you think. Not everybody can or will get Lasik (or even bifocals). Small-screen devices have their purposes and a growing audience, but it is short-sighted (pun unintentional) to imply that users of larger devices are dinosaurs. Unless you propose killing everybody who passes the age of 40, of course.

Re:desktops next

[icebraining]

I disagree that desktops will disappear. They'll probably turn into professional only devices, that work with one all day and have more requirements than a smartphone can provide (and no, a smartphone will *never* be as powerful as a desktop, by the simple fact that you can put more components into it).

Someone has to produce that massive platform the smartphones/TVs/etc rely on.

Re:desktops next

[icebraining]

I doubt that the reason desktops will stay relevant. Most people will probably have a keyboard/screen combo they connect their smartphone to, which would take care of that problem, and even use the TV for other content.
The Acer Stream (Android phone) already has an HDMI port, so you can plug it to your TV or TFT screen, no need for a full desktop.

Re:desktops next

[tepples]

The Acer Stream (Android phone) already has an HDMI port, so you can plug it to your TV or TFT screen, no need for a full desktop.

Then how can you see where you're touching? Or does it also have a USB host port for plugging in a mouse or other traditional pointing device when docked to an external monitor?

Re:desktops next

[tepples]

I disagree that desktops will disappear. They'll probably turn into professional only devices

Do you mean something like the Mac Pro, priced for businesses and not enthusiasts?

Re:desktops next

[Zeelan]

The command line might not be as evident as it once was but it is still alive and well in its own world. There is a lot of equipment running linux out there with the only interface to it being a command line based serial port. Switches, telecommunications, and embedded industrial controllers are all examples of where the command line is alive and well.

Re:desktops next

[itsdapead]

Call me crazy, but I just don't see a future where our permitting clerks are sitting at the counter entering new permits and printing invoices from a phone screen.

No, but they could be easily be working on an Android, ChromeOS or iOS tablet/nettop entering data into a web-based application. Far easier to administer than a separate instance of your software on every single workstation.

I think this is the real target market for ChromeOS (which is no good for mobiles until mobile internet gets far more reliable).

Thin-client computing is a jolly good idea which has, so far, been blocked because everybody and their dog wants to run MS Office.

Re:desktops next

[Americano]

I'll take lessons in good whiskey, joint-rolling, and entering firewall rules via the command line any day.

But maybe you could sub in a lesson about good scotch (or how to make a good mixed drink) instead of the whole thai lady-boy thing?

Re:desktops next

[maxume]

We aren't that far from crazy Tony Stark phones that can wirelessly interact with any screen that is in the room while being plenty fast for 95% of computing tasks (and the ability to offload the rest to some other computer).

'Normal' people have already moved to laptops, if it were easy and seamless to have a phone that, when placed on a desk, took over the screen, keyboard and mouse on that desk, plenty of people would be switching right over. You could even have a laptop shaped peripheral that provided your phone with a screen, keyboard and touchpad.

There are issues with things like storage capacity, but that can be accessed from a widget you plug into the wall at your house or whatever, and those issues get less frustrating on a rather aggressive schedule.

Re:desktops next

[circletimessquare]

well no shit

i'm just describing what the MAJORITY are doing. the desktop has been the focus for most everyone for a long time. but that is really going away

it's like i'm telling you "television is coming and will change everything" and you say "well no, people will still listen to radio, so nothing is changing"

well no shit people will still listen to radio, but television IS going to change things, just like a smartphone centric world will change things, even though people will still be using desktops

get it? you haven't refuted anything i said, you just completely misunderstood the subject. no one thinks desktops are going away 100%, so you refuting that point simply means you didn't even understand my point

Re:desktops next

[Anonymous Coward]

You are making a mistake in how you view smartphones. A smartphone doesnt have to be the same form factor. I can see a future in 2-3 years when I carry my smartphone around and it fills multiple roles.

1) When I am mobile it serves as a typical smartphone does now.
2) When I am home it docks into its cradle and from either a monitor or pico projector I have a big screen and ultilize a wireless mouse and keyboard
3) When I am in my car it docks and serves as navigation, music, traffic, etc from the built in screen and has built in controls as well.
etc.

Its not about being tied down and largely it will come down to contiued improvements in speed and reliance on a cloud for what cant be done on the phone (PCs will bridge the gap)

Re:desktops next

[icebraining]

No, but it does have bluetooth and there are already some BT keyboards that work with Android,

Re:desktops next

[Nadaka]

Touch screens will not overtake keyboards, ever. They may compliment them, but not replace. You need a physical keyboard if you are going to be typing more than a few lines of text each day.

I do type a lot of information. I chose my phone because it had on of the largest keyboards available.

Re:desktops next

[h00manist]

"the borg" is a silly scifi notion from last century that only old people even care or know about

I'm not sure I can find a good modern analogy. Botnets? The Power Rangers? Credit cards?

Re:desktops next

[Anne Thwacks]

You can do CAD on your iPhone. I want 36" screen with really good resolution and a tracker ball. City traders seem to need three "normal" screens, I dont see them switching to their iPhones for trading.

Disclaimer: I use OpenBSD and like playing with the family and the Nintendo Wii, so I am probably not normal.

Re:desktops next

[xenapan]

uhh us CODERS? a touchscreen offers nothing to a coder. The same way a 7 inch tablet or even 11 inch netbook tablet is insufficient space to develop on. Some of us actually do work requiring larger screens. WIDE Screens rotated vertically to maximize the amount of code you can see etc. ;) Last I checked your smartphone still has at best a 1.0 ghz single core. My desktop has 2.83ghz quad core... when do you think you can start compiling on your smartphone? Oh.

I'm one of the few people that refuse to even upgrade to a smartphone. I require my phone to make phone calls and text nothing more. Would it be convenient to have "apps" on it? maybe. But considering how much I use the apps on my current phone, chances are I would be like most people. Install apps and use them once or twice then forget about them for months until I have some use for it.

Am I watching the market and development of apps for the new smartphone platforms carefully? Yes indeed. But we are still a long way off from the time where your phone can double as your computer if you need to actually get work DONE.

Re:desktops next

[maxume]

You are basically saying that you would rather not be able to pick up the device powering your CAD station and put it in your pocket.

I suppose that might be the case, but there isn't really any reason to not do it, once a powerful enough device is pocket-able.

It almost seems you didn't read the part of my post about the device interacting with screens and other peripherals (both of your examples act like that could never ever happen), but I don't know how that could be the case, that's what my entire post was about.

Is it going to be "hype" for the next few years?

[Rooked_One]

Its not about what is dominating right now... its what new product comes out that the masses buy.

I hate to use ESX as an example, but its hard to say "no" to a VM farm. Skewed analogy, but if you have those brain cells rubbing together yet (I don't - stupid decaf) then you'll get my drift.

Nice Deflection

[eldavojohn]

With Android, Java skills are everything and... um... we got more people capable of doing Websphere/JBoss stuff? What a victory would that be.

So because there haven't been totally unrelated very large and sometimes hated Objective-C projects, iOS is better than Android? I find it humorous how quickly this has been sidetracked to a religious language flamewar instead of looking at the platforms and developer support. Yeah, it's in Java. Yeah, Java can be used badly. Just like every other language. Where's your evidence that Android uses it poorly? Or do you have to say "Hitler drank Java and Java is run on Android. Do you want to use Hitler's mobile operating system?"

Java skills aren't everything with Android. They're important and you will need to know a touch of Java. You also need to know XML and sometimes have a choice of how you store resources like Strings between Java and XML. Also, there is another way to construct your apps in Android.

Re:Nice Deflection

[mdm-adph]

Also, there is another way to construct your apps in Android.

Well, not just Android -- from what I can see, that book's about making web apps. Cool, but nothing specific to Android!

Re:Nice Deflection

[martas]

You also need to know XML

< tag > value < / tag >. phew, that was hard to learn!

Re:Nice Deflection

[Anne Thwacks]

value . phew, that was hard to learn!

I presume your CV claims more than 10 years experience of XML!

Re:Nice Deflection

[martas]

well yeah, how else could I have learned such complex syntax??

Re:Nice Deflection

[dr.newton]

If you hadn't actually quoted part of the GP's post, I'd think you were replying to the wrong one.

So because there haven't been totally unrelated very large and sometimes hated Objective-C projects, iOS is better than Android? I find it humorous how quickly this has been sidetracked to a religious language flamewar instead of looking at the platforms and developer support.

No one mentioned iOS. I get the impression that you're responding to what you perceive to be persecution at the hands of Apple fanboys, but none of that was happening here. I find it humourous how quickly this has been sidetracked to a religious platform flamewar.

I feel the GP was wrong to dismiss the value of Java skills by equating it with Websphere/JBoss development, although it is probably true that Meego development is more applicable to the linux desktop. He/she has a point.

I'd like to see Meego get a significant portion of the market, and I've got a Nexus One running CyanogenMod in my pocket.

I still don't see that much android in NYC

[alen]

i take the subway and lately i've been seeing more iPhone 4's than Android phones. i've noticed that a lot of android phones look like an iphone 4, but overall i see a lot more iCrap than Andoid. could be all the people with ipod touches i see have android phones in their bags they aren't showing, but then what is the point of 2 devices?

when people ask me what they should buy i tell them that it doesn't really matter since they are 90% the same

Re:I still don't see that much android in NYC

[Sedated2000]

I personally have an android phone, it's a Galaxy S. I love it and have no complaints at all. I have plenty of storage for movies and music, and this one came with Avatar on it. The problem is I need my phone available for email, voice and texts. If I listened to music on it like I do with my little Sansa Fuze then the battery wouldn't be enough to last me a day. If these things start getting enough battery life to handle everything then I would gladly move to one device for everything, but until then I have to prioritize.

Re:I still don't see that much android in NYC

[ArmchairGeneral]

I did see a unique solution for the Galaxy S battery life, it's a 'pack' that fits onto the back of the cell. It adds to the weight, but it really extends the life. http://www.pocket-lint.com/news/35215/ebb-u10-battery-pack-samsung-galaxy-s

Re:I still don't see that much android in NYC

[alen]

there are 20 million people here during the workday, it's a pretty good sample of the US. i know more people with android phones than iphones, but overall i see a lot more iphones in the street here

Re:I still don't see that much android in NYC

[mliu]

Wouldn't it be more compact to carry around your phone and a spare battery rather than your phone and an mp3 player?

Re:I still don't see that much android in NYC

[ArmchairGeneral]

My Android is a Galaxy S and I've had a few people ask if it was an iPhone and it does look a lot like one, so I can see how they think it is one. I explain that it's different and then the conversation usually ends. A couple of them asked a few questions, but I think many people don't really discern the difference. I like the iPhone, I think it's a well made device, but I wanted to get something that was more for me. I really think Google has a great approach to development for their platform, their SDK is free and works on multiple platforms, plus they have a web-based version, so you can access your work-in-progress from anywhere. That alone speaks volumes.

Re:I still don't see that much android in NYC

[The Phantom Mensch]

That looks like vaporware at the moment. Or maybe my Google-fu in lacking but the search results from google all seem to be variations on a product press release or leak from late August promising the battery would be available "real soon now, September for sure". And here it is almost November and it's not out. Here in the US I doubt it'll even work as the US market Galaxy variants all seem to have a case shape tweak to allow the carriers to dominate the accessory market for their phones.

Re:I still don't see that much android in NYC

[inerlogic]

no, it's a pretty good sample of the whackos who live in NYC with zero basis in reality when it comes to representing the rest of the civilized world... please..... you people put tomatoes in your fucking clam chowder.... and why are the mets still around?

NYC is it's own entity.... with no relation to the rest of the US....

Re:I still don't see that much android in NYC

[Marcika]

there are 20 million people here during the workday, it's a pretty good sample of the US. i know more people with android phones than iphones, but overall i see a lot more iphones in the street here

Yes, and overall, 80% of all cars in the US are probably yellow Crown Vics - I see a lot more of them on the street in NYC than any other car ;-)

Re:I still don't see that much android in NYC

[itsdapead]

but then what is the point of 2 devices?

Because, if you flatten the battery on your iPod listening to tunes and playing games, You don't have to walk miles in the rain searching for the last public telephone in the western world.

when people ask me what they should buy i tell them that it doesn't really matter since they are 90% the same

...but that last 10% of consistency and attention to detail on the iDevices is a killer.

Oh, and wake me up when Android can use web proxies so I can use my Android phone over the work WiFi network... Apart from that, ymmv depending on which Android phone you have: my HTC Hero just hasn't got the CPU grunt to do justice to Android, loses all its settings when you upgrade the OS (eventually, after HTC and the carrier have done their bit), needs two separate email clients (one for Gmail push, another for POP/IMAP/Exchange) and has a joke of a media player (the alternatives have gimmicky interfaces I don't want and don't integrate with the HTC lock screen). When I upgrade, it'll either be to an iPhone or to a pure-Google Android.

Re:I still don't see that much android in NYC

[Attila Dimedici]

there are 20 million people here during the workday, it's a pretty good sample of the US.

This is a mistake that people in NYC make all of the time. Some of the most parochial people I know live and work in NYC. Usually they think they are cosmopolitan, even though they have never lived outside of the New York metro area and almost all of their friends live and work in the New York metro area.

Re:I still don't see that much android in NYC

[PseudonymousBraveguy]

there are 20 million people here during the workday, it's a pretty good sample of the US.

Even if that was true (which I suppose it's not), the US is not a good sample of the world. There are markets like Europe or Asia that may behave completely different than the US markets. (If you don't believe that, look at the list of the most popular cars in the US and than at the list of the most popular cars in Europe)

Re:I still don't see that much android in NYC

[I_M_Noman]

please..... you people put heavy cream in your fucking clam chowder

There, fixed that for you.

Re:I still don't see that much android in NYC

[EXrider]

The problem is I need my phone available for email, voice and texts. If I listened to music on it like I do with my little Sansa Fuze then the battery wouldn't be enough to last me a day. If these things start getting enough battery life to handle everything then I would gladly move to one device for everything, but until then I have to prioritize.

Battery life is one of the few things that the iPhone 4 has bested every other touchscreen smartphone I've seen in. I can stream music or play the iPod for both of my drives to and from work (about 2 hours total), text all day, make occasional short phone calls, surf web pages for about an hour at lunch; assuming it's a Friday night, go out, play music again in the car, snap some pics and or video, catch up on social networking, get home at 3AM and still have 20% battery remaining as I plug it into the charger and go to bed.

Re:I still don't see that much android in NYC

[stalky14]

I see a pretty even spread of Android, Blackberry, and iPhone on the train in Portland... maybe a slight Android edge. A lot of G1's, actually, which surprises me, though T-Mobile does have a pretty strong footprint here. > but then what is the point of 2 devices? I carry a Nexus One and an iPod Touch daily. I use the Touch for games and music and a certain app that I can't get on Android (yet). Best of both worlds. The N1 also lets me tether the Touch if I need data on it for some reason. But the best part is that I can run down the battery on my recreational device without worrying about losing my communications device at the same time! Also, T-Mobile runs rings around AT&T and Verizon in the Bang/Buck department on data plans.

Re:I still don't see that much android in NYC

[inerlogic]

no *i* put cream in my clam chowder, the correct way to do it.... tomatoes don't belong in clam chowder, everyone knows that...

Re:I still don't see that much android in NYC

[itsdapead]

Android does support proxies. I don't know if you're using an old version that didn't have that support, but there is a proxy option in my wireless network screen.

Looks like the latest version has proxy support - see comment 991 here - but not per-network and, apparently, failing to be picked up by all apps. So even if this version is available for your phone it sounds about as much use as a chocolate teapot.

Re:Apple?

[Danimoth]

The list was phones, tablets, set top boxes and tvs. Apple makes products in 3 of the 4 of these, and rather dominates the market in two of them.

Depends...

[fuzzyfuzzyfungus]

As a de-facto standard cheap embedded OS for reasonably high resource devices, it is pretty hard to see Android doing badly. Mostly linux guts, so it runs on plenty of stuff, Google has been pretty aggressive about improving it, freely available(if you don't want Google's blessing and proprietary apps). Runs basically-java, so there are plenty of developers available; but also has the unixy underpinnings such that, if your horrid legacy application supports the architecture, you can run it natively and just interact with it via a thin android UI. Hard to argue too much with that, at least until you get to screen-and-keyboard devices were something a little less touchphone focused might be nice.

How well "android" in the sense of "Google blessed, app-store linked, reasonably up to date and supported by the vendor with upgrades(or left open for 3rd party support), it is less clear. By virtue of being open, the risk of carrier tentacles getting in and ruining things becomes higher, and the competition from more forcefully unified platforms greater.

Re:Depends...

[h00manist]

Hope Google, or anyone, manages do keep high compatibility between versions and platforms. Need more interoperability, to stop losing open source apps.

Re:Depends...

[fuzzyfuzzyfungus]

I think you are(more clearly and succinctly), making more or less the point that I was trying to.

Back in the day, Windows CE lived too basically seperate lives(and still does, in a many locations). One was as a bespoke embedded OS, tailored tightly to various kiosks and POS systems and embedded whatnots, with absolutely no expectation of any sort of "apps" or even OS upgrades. Not infrequently, it was literally burned into actual ROM. On the other side, it served as the core of Pocket PC and Windows Mobile, which were expected, and sometimes actually managed, to have 3rd party application ecosystems, occasional upgrades, within the architectural limits of their platforms, and generally offer a windows-like experience in a smaller box.

I could see Android going very much the same way: if you just need to knock out a kiosk, or a feature-phone, or some embedded something or other, android is free, can be wrangled by relatively widely available linux and java guys, and works reasonably well. Your device will be forever stuck at version X, and may have no facility at all for ugrades(unless enthusiasts hack one in); but it will be an Android device.

The bigger question is whether Android will survive as a coherent platform in the second space. Will "android" actually mean something in terms of what applications, functions, and upgrades the end user can expect, or will a bunch of telcos and widget makers just save some money on firmware and middleware?

Re:Resistance is...

[maxwell demon]

... voltage over current

Numbers.

[Civil_Disobedient]

Here are the only numbers that matter:

Phones that use Android (spoiler: ~80, ~110 including tablets)
Phones that use iOS (spoiler: 3, including tablets)

Number of Android carriers: 4
Number of iPhone carriers: 1

The fact (and it is a fact) that Android outsells iOS should come as no surprise.

Re:Numbers.

[thestudio_bob]

The fact (and it is a fact) that Android outsells iOS should come as no surprise.

It's kind of hard to compete with market share when the other guys are doing 2-for-1 specials.

Re:Numbers.

[Duradin]

Prepare to be modded to hell.

Droidbois have issues with anyone that mentions BOGOs and their precious OS.

Re:Numbers.

[DragonWriter]

It's kind of hard to compete with market share when the other guys are doing 2-for-1 specials.

2-for-1 specials are basically equivalent to selling at half the price. Being overpriced compared to the competition is no virtue, though I can understand how Apple fans would see it that way (or, rather, I can see how people who see it that way would tend to become Apple fans.)

 

Re:Numbers.

[PitaBred]

That's Steve's fault. It's not "hard to compete", he just chooses not to.

Re:Numbers.

[QuantumBeep]

The profit is there. The handset manufacturer is getting paid for that handset, even if the carrier is amortizing the cost over the consumer's contract term plus default risk.

Re:Numbers.

[QuantumBeep]

I don't believe the handset manufacturer is selling them 2-for-1. That's the profit hole you're talking about, right?

The carrier is paying for the handsets, then absorbing the BOGO discount. And NOBODY suggests the carriers aren't making a profit.

Re:Numbers.

[DragonWriter]

I don't believe the handset manufacturer is selling them 2-for-1. That's the profit hole you're talking about, right?

I don't believe I mentioned a "profit hole" anywhere in GP.

Apple fans like to insinuate that comparing the actual sales numbers isn't fair or meaningful because some carriers have, at some times, adopted 2-for-1 promotions that affected some Android handsets.

But the price the consumer has to pay to acquire the device is a real factor in market success, so even if those specials do lower the minimum price of Android handsets, so what? The fans' claim that the comparison isn't meaningful amounts to a plea that Apple should get "extra credit" for its devices being, at the end of the day, more expensive than the competition.

Re:Numbers.

[QuantumBeep]

Wheeoops, meant to reply to GP, not you.

He was suggesting a profit hole.

I honestly don't care what wins

[ewhenn]

I honestly don't care what wins as long as I can install anything on my phone that I want without needing to get "approval" from some corporate app store with "Christian" morals as part of their app approval policy. Personally, I'd buy a technically inferior product if it was open and the makers didn't try to shove restrictions down my throat.

The way I feel about it is: It's my phone, I payed for it, if you don't like what I'm doing with my own property, well, that's just too bad for you.

Re:I honestly don't care what wins

[inerlogic]

you didn't buy it though, you paid a discounted rate on a phone subsidized by the manufacturer and carrier for the privilege of accessing whatever network features they decide you should be able to access... that's true for every carrier.

Re:I honestly don't care what wins

[johnny0099]

That was good. Now everyone line up and let's do it again. And a one, two, three, four...

I honestly don't care what wins as long as I can install anything on my phone that I want without needing to get "approval" from some corporate app store with "Christian" morals as part of their app approval policy. Personally, I'd buy a technically inferior product if it was open and the makers didn't try to shove restrictions down my throat.

The way I feel about it is: It's my phone, I payed for it, if you don't like what I'm doing with my own property, well, that's just too bad for you.

Welcome, Master!

[Bombur]

I, for my part, welcome my new open source overlord.

Resistance is Futile, Further Innovation is Not

[digitaldc]

Resistance to Android is futile, however, if you can build something better you can exploit that and compete.

Symbian, RIM, Windows and Apple are all going to have to come up with something better, or collaborate to survive.

Re:Resistance is Futile, Further Innovation is Not

[zeroshade]

Perhaps. That is if they weren't making any money off Android....yet they are selling more Android devices than anything else. I think they are making good money. =)

The year of Linux on Everything HOORAY!!!

[ArhcAngel]

This is the year of Linux on Everything! *

* Everything excludes the desktop

Re:The year of Linux on Everything HOORAY!!!

[crhylove]

Not true:

Try the new Linux Mint RC. This is definitely the year of desktop Linux, too, unless you are stuck with some crappy corporate proprietary software like many of my clients.

I have seen this somewhere before.

[SneakyMishkin]

Apple creates a cool new device, it explodes in popularity and basically creates a market. Apple decides the best way forward is full control the hardware and all software that gets added to its fun device. Another company releases a competing software platform that runs on a variety of hardware platforms and does not require you to run all your software through an approval process. Hardware companies start making more and more systems with the "other guys" software as a platform and the cost of the other hardware drops. Everyone switches to the other guys and Apple implodes.

I am no fan of Apple but I can admit that they make some nice hardware. Why do they think it will play out any different this time?

Re:I have seen this somewhere before.

[TheGreek]

I am no fan of Apple but I can admit that they make some nice hardware. Why do they think it will play out any different this time?

The last time, the Board forced Steve out of the company and Apple stopped creating dramatically new products, favoring incremental improvements instead.

Re:I have seen this somewhere before.

[intheshelter]

If it was an apples to apples comparison then maybe it would be something Apple should worry about, but the mobile market is NOT the same as the PC market of 25 years ago. That's not saying Apple will dominate nor Android, but then again who cares. I buy Apple products because I like them. If someone else doesn't then they can buy something else. Why is it necessary for one to dominate? To be honest, I think those days are gone, I don't think any phone maker is going to dominate any more, there will always be many choices.

Re:I have seen this somewhere before.

[pastafazou]

because they don't plan on hiring a new CEO whose experience is in selling sugary water? Because they aren't locked into a single processor platform? Because the hardware is subsidized by the wireless carriers through the locked in contracts, so cutthroat price wars aren't going to happen?

Re:I have seen this somewhere before.

[Attila Dimedici]

Hardware companies start making more and more systems with the "other guys" software as a platform...

Actually, this happens because they can't make systems with Apples software as the platform.

Re:I have seen this somewhere before.

[david_thornley]

When has this happened?

Apple II: an open platform, was probably the top personal computer system until IBM stepped in.

iPod: dominated market, still does.

iPhone: still extremely popular.

iPad: too soon to say how it'll play out in the long term.

The Macintosh didn't explode in popularity, and didn't really create a market. The first Macs were all-in-one boxes, although the Macintosh II didn't take that long to come out, but the software market was open, and required no approval process (and still doesn't). The important thing here is that the Mac never had a chance to be dominant, as Microsoft segued from the dominant MS-DOS to Windows systems, and it's also notable what happened to all of Apple's non-Microsoft competitors like Atari and Commodore.

Really, I wish people would stop making up history. It really annoys people who lived through it and watched.

Palm WebOS

[doramjan]

There will be resistance from me as long as I am able to purchase WebOS devices. I *MUCH* prefer WebOS over Android.

Re:Palm WebOS

[Gizzmonic]

You and me both, pal. A consistent interface and a fully open Linux-based phone that you can root with the developers' blessing. And yet, it seems to be an also-ran for most geeks. Maybe the Pre2 will change that.

Re:Palm WebOS

[aapold]

I'm with you on webos (especially like what we're glimpsing of 2.0), but the Pre2's hardware is too underwhelming. I can already overclock to that now, and it seems if you don't have some kind of droolworthy screen no one is going to even notice you.... we'll have to keep hoping whatever comes next will grab some attention back... I do think they're making a mistake by not licensing the OS. They could stick it on a clone of any of the android devices and have an instant hit....

Re:I think ...

[AndrewNeo]

And if I sit down in a group of 8 people, I'll see 6 Android devices, 1 iPhone, and a dumbphone. It happens consistently with me, too. Sample bias?

Re:Apple?

[ArcherB]

I think Apple might have a thing or two to say about that...

Apple doesn't sell competing products to this, Microsoft does.

We are talking about phones, tablets, set top boxes and TV's.

Microsoft phones have been terrible. We'll see how their new offerings do. From what I can tell, it's doesn't do anything that Android doesn't do. It's a race to the "cloud" and Google is already there.

Tablets? Where can I purchase a Microsoft powered tablet? Sure, I've seen them, but they are running nothing more than the desktop version of Windows with a tablet front end... and they have all sucked.

Set top boxes? I see no Microsoft boxes there with the exception of the X-Box. Since my X-Box didn't come with wifi, I can't really tell you how well it works and I'm not spending $100 to test it out. Oh, and let's not forget about the monthly Live subscription fee. The X-Box is a gaming device. It is not capable of recording "Dancing with the Stars". Once Google in integrated into set top boxes, like is planned with Dish Network, you'll be able to use Google to search for a show and set it to record, all without having to use the clunky interface that modern set top boxes come with. Who knows, it may even stream it to your Android powered phone or PC.

Finally, I have not seen Microsoft integrated into a TV and while I'm sure someone is working on a similar project in a basement somewhere in Redmond, it will be hard to penetrate that market once GoogleTV gets settled in.

What I see is Google services penetrating the TV market. Your HDTV will receive TV signals as always, but will also be able to browse the web to read information about your current shows. I could see an Android tablet being the remote control, possibly mirroring what you see on the TV, with an optional keyboard for us old folks. Maybe we'll be able to pull up a guide on our tablet, search for a particular show and have the tablet act as the remote to change the channel. Maybe instead of "Picture in Picture", we could have "Picture in Lap", where the secondary feed is directed to your tablet...

The possibilities are endless here and currently, Google is the only game on the market for this. Apple will try, but I don't see Apple allowing tablets to be shipped with TV's to be used as remotes. They'll screw it up and set up exclusive contract with Sony or something while Android will be everywhere. Apple will charge a premium and run fancy ads geared toward hipsters while Google's stuff will come integrated.

The more diversity, the better

[Constantin]

My guess it will be tough to have one OS that spans many device types simply due to the complexity and permutations of hardware/software that occur as devices get more complex. That is, I have a very different expectation of a home PC and it's capabilities vs. a workstation or a so-called smartphone. Writing an OS that spans that gamut of hardware/software reliably and with a user experience that can be described as acceptable should be difficult for the time being. I see Android slowly gobbling up market share at the 'low-end' of the device sophistication market - i.e. tablet PCs, smartphones, TVs, and the like and then spreading up. By comparison, MS tried the opposite, i.e. gain market share dominance on the PC side before simplifying the OS to run on lesser platforms reliably.

The price-point of the Android OS is right and hardware manufacturers are free to block portions of Android capabilities as they see fit. Thus, in many ways they are getting their cake and eating it too. Meanwhile, Apple has in some ways missed the bus (again) by clinging to the crown jewels instead of making them a industry standard that everyone embraces. This single-minded obsession with controlling what goes into the marketplace, the bad organization thereof, etc. is unmanageable in the long term. Bottom line is that Apple would do better to allow all sorts of software to run on their devices but to only endorse some, i.e. the ones that they sell on their specific marketplace, while allowing users to screw up their systems as they see fit with stuff purchased outside the walled garden.

For me, the bottom line is the user-experience. Here, Android may well be a significant step up from some of the craptastic UIs that some OEMs have developed over the years (Sony, Symbian, etc.). If Android continues to evolve as it has to become better, more secure, etc. then I am all for it because it will force other OS manufacturers to step up their game or get out of the way. What I fear is that eventually Android will head into the same cloud of crummy choices as Windows OS did, i.e. once it became the dominant OS there was too much focus on making the DRM-folk happy, marketing tie-ins, and other bloatware that do nothing for the user but which please some corporate entity. Here, the key will be to allow users to eject the portions of the codebase they object to, something that is not yet possible on most devices. But with any luck, users will regain some of their taken-away user rights...

In other words, a better OS than Android would be something even more open, like Linux. But competing with the almighty Google and its deep pockets, legions of programmers, marketing machine, existing tie-ins, etc. is not a challenge I would look on favorably. Plus, how to get the OS onto devices, run them reliably, etc. when the OEMs in questions may have put in blocks (legal or not) to prevent users from liberating their property...

Re:The more diversity, the better

[Daniel Phillips]

In other words, a better OS than Android would be something even more open, like Linux.

Android is Linux?

About time to replace the Bill Gates Borg

[moxsam]

And make a Larry Page and Sergey Brin Borg pictogram.

Re:About time to replace the Bill Gates Borg

[moxsam]

...at least it is called Android, not Cyborg.

Re:About time to replace the Bill Gates Borg

[alen]

the android mascot looks just like the robot from a Nick Jr show called Team Umizoomi for pre-schoolers.

The question is futile

[dgilzz]

Since android sources are available to the open market, a fork (or more, or better) will come one of these days and the compatibility nightmare will come true...

Re:Java is a safe investment already

[ebuck]

Don't say that on Slashdot. This site demands that the most used and popular programming language of this time is nothing more than a bad fad which will die away leaving people the open space to write Perl scripts just like they way they used to.

Re:Java is a safe investment already

[ahankinson]

I wouldn't be so sure of that. Oracle seems to be doing everything in their power to gut the core of the Java community, so until a strong non-Oracle/Sun maintainer with deep pockets (ahem, IBM) steps in to pick up the slack, I'd stay away from Java as the basis for building a full platform.

Re:I think ...

[JesseDegenerate]

Actually, studies have shown android fanboys get laid the least. Sorry buddy.

Not futile

[ascari]

At least not if you ask Oracle's lawyers.

I don't understand...

[10Ghz]

...this "either/or" mentality. That if Android succeeds, everyone else has failed.

Let's look at computers. Microsoft and OEM's that use Windows have about 90% market-share, while Apple and OS X has a bit under 10%. Does that mean that Apple has "failed"? Not really. They seem to be having highly succesful computer-business, happy users, and lots of profits. Apple earns more money on their computers than HP, the market-leader, does with theirs. yet for some reason some people say that Apple should be like HP and Dell, since licensing OS from someone else is "the way this business works". Even though it seems that the OEM's are not earning that much, while Intel and Microsoft are the companies that reap the profits.

If we look at phones, we can see that Apple is earning lots of money there as well. More than Nokia is earning, even though Apple is a lot smaller. It seems that people are expecting Apple to gain iPod-like dominance in the phone-business, and if/when Android overtakes iOS, people decide that iOS has "failed", since history did not repeat itself. Well, Symbian dwarfs both iOS and Android, yet no-one is calling iOS or Android failures because of that fact. And gaining iPod-like share in a mature market like phones is quite hard, if not impossible. When Nokia was at it's biggest, it had something like 60-70% share of the market. But that was a market that wasn't all that mature yet. and they managed that for only few years.

What if Android gets 50% share in few years? Great! Android is a good OS, and we need more good phones. does that mean that everyone else has failed? I don't think so. It seems that people have this strange idea that there must be a clear winner and a clear loser(s). We got that in computers, when Microsoft ended up dominating the market. So we MUST have something similar elsewhere as well, right? I don't think so. And even in computers the "niche player" is earning quite nice profits. Even though they have single-digits market-share does not seem to be hurting them. You do not need to be big, biggest or dominating in order to have a good business.

Re:I don't understand...

[Nicky G]

Very valid points. Although I think you could emphasize Apple's success quite a bit more:

Apple is the 2nd largest American company period, by market cap -- right under Exxon Mobile.

Let me say again: Apple is the second largest company -- not just tech company, company in general. They have $50 Billion in liquid assets, with no debt. Their latest quarter was their best quarter ever. And by most accounts, they are still growing at quite a clip -- most analysts have Apple's stock pegged to go significantly higher. And their stock is at something like a quite-reaosnable 20:1 P/E ratio -- it's not a bubble stock price, in other words.

Yes, Apple is selling something like 10% of consumer computers in the USA, and less than that globally. But they are the SECOND BIGGEST COMPANY PERIOD, and one of the most profitable companies period. I think if the game keeps playing out like this, they have no interest in doing what Google, or anybody else, is doing.

... if Android focuses on the user experience

[e065c8515d206cb0e190]

Because iPhone is still much smoother than Android.

Most people don't care about Flash, HD video or dual-core phones. People want phones that can do well the basic stuff one wants to do on a smart phone (email, news, maps. weather, calls (!)). And the iPhone is terribly good at that.

I've had an iPhone for 2 years. Now that it's renewal time, I looked at all sorts of Android devices since I want to move away from the walled garden of Eden^H^H^H^H Jobs. The answer was simply that there is no match for the iPhone out there.

My advice to Google: focus on the Android user experience. That's the only way you'll ever beat Apple (and I hope you do).

Re:... if Android focuses on the user experience

[PitaBred]

The problem now is that carriers have been slow to get their phones updated to 2.2. That makes the system much smoother, and even the default interface is both functional and attractive. Android doesn't have the power of the iPhone where it can force those kinds of updates across the board, but in exchange for that you get a much more powerful and flexible phone. It's a matter of priorities. Yours are obviously with shiny, walled gardens that control the user experience to a high degree. I'm not sold on that, which is why I have a Nexus One.

Re:... if Android focuses on the user experience

[SoupGuru]

I don't understand which particular complaints you have against the Android user experience.

I have an Android phone and I can certainly check the weather and get my email easily...

Re:... if Android focuses on the user experience

[adisakp]

Most people don't care about Flash, HD video or dual-core phones. People want phones that can do well the basic stuff one wants to do on a smart phone (email, news, maps. weather, calls (!)). And the iPhone is terribly good at that.

"Terribly Good" does describe calls on the iPhone. If I can make and connect on an iPhone, the call quality is good. But I wouldn't use it for long or important calls because I drop calls on AT&T multiple times a day no matter where I am. And I think that the longest call I've had without dropping is about 10-15 minutes. People just get used to you calling them back when a call drops with mobile phones now and AT&T / iPhone 3 are big offenders.

The one thing about calls I wish they'd fix on iPhone vs Android is call volume. All the Android phones out there have really loud volume capability. The iPhone is very difficult to use when it's loud (i.e. bar / train / etc) -- the speaker phone is not very loud either -- at least not loud enough to easily use for handsfree talking in my car -- when I'm driving on the highway, road noises and wind are nearly as loud as the iPhone speaker phone.

Re:... if Android focuses on the user experience

[e065c8515d206cb0e190]

My main complaint is the "touch" experience. Typing and navigating through the UI is yet an area where the iPhone has the lead. I've tried multiple Android and Blackberry phones to come to that conclusion

Disclaimer: I'm absolutely not attracted to whatever shines. My desktop is a bare metal e16 on a Debian stable.

Re:... if Android focuses on the user experience

[PPalmgren]

I disagree. There is a true dichotomy present - a unified experience comes at the cost of options. In a perfect world this may not be true, but the world isn't perfect. Android phones are selling so well because it caters to the latter, which includes the majority of users. The Eris was a perfect fit for my mother and two friends because it was small, cheap, cute, and fit their light usage needs. The droid was right for me because of customizability and the full keyboard. The Evo was best for another friend because of a Sprint company discount and local Sprint coverage. This is a result of Google focusing its efforts on the modular facets of the OS, and the carrier adoption of the OS is also a result of this focus. These things are not possible if you only have one device that only works on one network with draconian restrictions to OS usage.

This is almost identical to the desktop wars in the 90's that put Apple in the gutter. I highly doubt Apple doesn't see where this is going because they have experienced it before. However, unlike before, Apple knows how to profit in its niche. Expect them to remain a competitor as a profitable solutions company, not as a market leader.

Re:... if Android focuses on the user experience

[mlts]

Actually, my advice to Google would be three things:

Apps, apps, apps. Get everybody writing for the platform, from the people putting yet another 99 cent fart app on the market to people making vertical market software that costs hundreds of dollars. Then start slinging the ads showing off the cool stuff on the boob tube. This way, people will move to Android because the cool stuff they see is there.

Get a standard dock connector. Not a USB connector, but a dock connector where an Android device can sit upright, supported by it structurally and where a force perpendicular to the connector won't immediately damage the connector nor the device. Apple has craploads of accessories supporting their 30 pin dock... even new cars have a place for this. Of course, keep the USB port, but having a dock connector means one can use the Android phone with DJ equipment for mixing, use it for storage or another display on a studio control surface, have it automatically be useful for hands free calling without worrying about BT pairing, and so on.

And finally, and I've harped on this before... have an ADP device that is refreshed every 3-6 months. I don't care if it costs $600, as long as it works on either AT&T or T-Mobile, I will buy it, just for the guaranteed ability to have custom ROMS available.

Re:... if Android focuses on the user experience

[yvajj]

I have an iphone 3g (work phone). When I first got it (which whatever iteration of iOS was out at the time) it was great. However, with subsequent releases of the OS, it's just gotten slower and less usable. Sure, call quality is great, but it takes a couple seconds to make a call (clicking an icon takes about 2-3 seconds before it responds).

I just got my wife a Samsung Fascinate (galaxy S on Verizon). This phone is awesome! It runs circles around the iphone (at least the 3g that I have) in usability and customization. I would love to have this instead of my iphone (unfortunately the company where I work doesn't support Android yet for corporate use).

However, for corporate use, I think my next phone will most likely be the new Windows 7 mobile. It seems really well integrated into outlook, and has some great enterprise features. The ability to view powerpoint presentations from the phone is a great feature which will get used a lot ( believe you might also be able to present them via the hdmi out).

Re:... if Android focuses on the user experience

[e065c8515d206cb0e190]

That's a carrier issue, not a phone/os issue. And you can switch to T-Mobile (as I did) if you're not happy wit AT&T.

Re:... if Android focuses on the user experience

[Anne Thwacks]

Two different cars from two different manufacturers look different, and that is not a problem. Phone users are no longer dumb, and can easily handle changes in menu format.

Android IS a game changer, and the change is that significant numbers of users will soon understan what "locked down" and "rooted" mean. They will learn who is pissing on them, and ask why, and Motorola will be history, unless they change their ways. Carriers who "provide" bloatware may actually have a userbase that loves them, but the userbase that hates them will probably be larger, and more profitable. Manufacturer differentiation is going to be over who ships buggy versions of Android, and then wont ship updates, versus those who keep theirs fresh. In these times of economic hardship, people will want to know why some people's phones get fresh software, while theirs does not. (Thanks, Apple)

Windows has already lost the plot. No business user I know, no matter how non-technical, will ever accept a phone with Windows on it. Once is enough.

Re:... if Android focuses on the user experience

[adisakp]

That's a carrier issue, not a phone/os issue. And you can switch to T-Mobile (as I did) if you're not happy wit AT&T.

I can't switch to T-Mobile and still have an iPhone. I wasn't happy with the Android phone and I'm not happy with the AT&T service.

Re:... if Android focuses on the user experience

[4phun]

I don't care if Android will be a better deal some day. I do not want to share in the pain of having a less than optimal Internet connected phone right now, so I choose to only buy and recommend Apple's iPhone and the iPad. If some time in the future I see there is a better experience with something else I will buy that at that time.

Apple has been a remarkably pleasant experience compared to all the purchases I have made since 1960.

Re:... if Android focuses on the user experience

[stiggle]

Its not the carriers - its the hardware manufacturers.
Some of the hardware manufacturers don't want to upgrade to 2.2

Samsung - ask them if they're going to update the original Galaxy i7500 (its not that old). They were hard pressed to update it to 1.6 and they've abandoned the hardware now they have the other Galaxy branded hardware out there.

Sony - just when is 2.x coming out for the X10 Xperia? Its been pushed back every time they get close to the release date and it was promised 'soon' when the phone was released.

Phones last longer than their contract period - so the hardware manufacturers should be putting in place support for the devices for more than 12-18 months.

Oui,

[pastafazou]

je me souviens. J'ai un jaune gross crayon.

Not impressed with Android

[gravis777]

I have been a person who has been getting upset with my iPhone. I hate the huge bills, I hate the restriciton that Apple places on the app store.

Or rather, I hated.

What changed my mind? Had a friend who picked up an android phone a couple of weeks ago, and we played with it. Suddenly, I love Apple. The Android app store seemed to rarely have what I was looking for, and when I did find something, it was either a generic clone, or a virus, according to the comments. There seems to be zippo quality control. Other providers who offer Android phones in my area seem to have only slighly cheaper data plans than what i currently have with AT&T, and with MUCH worse coverage - especially on the data side.

From what I have seen, I think Android has reached its peak, and will start falling off. Pitty, It could have been good if they had of standardized a few things and had better censorship in the app store

Re:Not impressed with Android

[TrancePhreak]

I pay $20 for truly unlimited data. I am surrounded by people with iPhones on AT&T. When they drop calls or the network goes down for a bit, I feel good knowing I don't join in their pain. Also, iPhone 4 users appear to be having trouble with the back glass cracking or becoming severely scratched. A friend of mine can no longer make calls from his house because of the antena difference between the 3GS and 4.

Re:Not impressed with Android

[gravis777]

I have a 3G and am quite happy with it. And I have unlimited data.

I still don't see many Nintendo DS in the subway

[mliu]

NYC subways for whatever reason seems to present a very different ecosystem than the rest of the country.

From looking around, you'd think that Sony PSP are absolutely dominating the Nintendo DS. However, in reality the DS has sold more than twice as many as the PSP.

Re:I think ...

[Merk42]

Unless the GP is homosexual I think he'll take less sex over plenty of gay sex. Nonetheless I think he needs to explain to his wife why he's constantly in gay bars

This is not the PC market

[__aazsst3756]

This is not the PC market, and therefore likely no single device will dominate the way Windows did. Cost was a major factor driving Windows, as well as people needed interoperability to exchange files.

There is simply not the same forces in place that will drive one player to almost total control of the phone market. We will likely end up with several major players, from Windows 7, Android, iOS, Meego, and HP Palm having varying percentages.

There is also several things working against Android that have not become clear to consumers yet, but will. Android relegates phone makers to almost no margins on hardware unless they can differentiate on the software side. This is driving fragmentation of the Android OS. Verizon is already running commercials for Android phones with no mention that it is Android, setting up their own closed ecosystem with their own branding.

Windows phone 7 reviews are clear that while they are behind on some key features, the OS is cleaner and easier to use than any Android implementation. We have only began to see a billion dollar marketing campaign to push it.

Palm's OS that HP purchased was very good, perhaps one of the best on the market. They did not have the resources to push it, and the hardware was terrible. HP could fix that if they wish. While they have fallen off the radar, I would not count Palm OS out if HP ever feels like getting in the phone game in a big way.

iOS will continue to thrive, but will probably never dominate, as Apple's goal is usability and profit (high end), not market share. They also have such economies of scale now from a very clean product roadmap, to the largest purchaser of flash ram in the world, they they can make more profit selling at similar or reduced price points.

Nokia, the biggest phone maker in the world, will probably never go to Android, as they do not want to become the equivalent of a beige pc box builder. For this reason they will push Meego hard, and they have so many fans worldwide that they will likely succeed, even if late to the party.

Android will do well... But will not likely ever totally control the market the way Windows did. This market is different.

Re:This is not the PC market

[solipsist0x01]

I agree with you assessment when it comes to phones, but the article is talking about more than just phones. When TV's, tablets, and netbooks can all run Android apps (that can all use each others' features) it's a very tempting target platform for developers developers developers.

Re:Resistance is...

[inerlogic]

beat me to it..... bastard.....

Re:Resistance != Futile

[inerlogic]

i always thought Z was futile....

like what?

[t2t10]

Despite all the improvements, Android still lags behind Apple's (Nasdaq: AAPL) iOS, according to Molchanov. "There's still nothing fundamentally groundbreaking in this release," he said. "With the new UI, video chat and hardware acceleration, Google is still playing catch-up with iOS," he added.

Really? In what area is iOS ahead? I can't think of any.

Re:like what?

[codepunk]

How about execution speed, the whole apple eco-system including apps is based on native executable code. The vast array of games available for it vs the android is a direct result of this.

Re:like what?

[t2t10]

You're right that iOS use the NeXTStep/UNIX native code programming model. But that's a sign of being behind, not ahead: by using an older programming model, it's easier to port existing code to it.

By relying more on a virtual machine, Android is actually technically ahead. That does make it harder to port old software, but it gives Android a big lead in areas like security. So, Android is ahead in this area, not behind; but by being ahead, it also means that it is less backwards compatible.

Nevertheless, Android does have support for native programming, and there's even an SDL implementation. So, if you're a game developer or need fast native code, you can program Android as easily as iOS.

No Market on Archos Internet tablets

[tepples]

"the" android market is still by far the largest one, and is accessible from pretty much every android handset.

It's not accessible from any Android device made by Archos. In fact, it doesn't appear to be accessible from any available Android device without a cellular radio. (Samsung Galaxy Player 50 isn't out yet.)

Re:No Market on Archos Internet tablets

[SETIGuy]

The Market app can operate over any network connection. If you don't have any network connection, then yes, that would be a problem. My understanding is that Google still blocks the Market outside of the U.S.A., so people in other countries need to find another market or install apps manually (i.e. download them from the browser). Google could find a market for you easily.

Re:No Market on Archos Internet tablets

[tepples]

The Market app can operate over any network connection.

Say I have an Archos 43 and a working Wi-Fi connection. But Archos 43 doesn't come with the Market app. So now how do I use the Market?

Re:No Market on Archos Internet tablets

[AliasMarlowe]

Say I have an Archos 43

Unlikely, unless it's one of the pre-production demo models. The Archos 43 is not yet available, and online retailers indicate 8 November as the earliest possible date for shipments. Of course, a few weeks ago, I was promised by Archos sales via email that they'd definitely be shipping in mid-October. C'est la vie.

But Archos 43 doesn't come with the Market app. So now how do I use the Market?

Well, when you eventually do get that Archos 43, you could download gApps4Archos.apk and install it, following instructions such as http://forum.archosfans.com/viewtopic.php?f=65&t=38186

Re:No Market on Archos Internet tablets

[SETIGuy]

Install the Market app, of course. Find and download an APK for any of the multiple markets that exist and install it with the package installer. You'd think it was difficult or something. Unless the Archos 43 doesn't come with the package installer, at which point you should be telling the world not to buy an Archos 43.

Re:No Market on Archos Internet tablets

[tepples]

Install the Market app, of course. Find and download an APK

You suggest the same thing that AliasMarlowe suggested. Please see my reply to that comment.

for any of the multiple markets that exist

So how do I get an app's publisher to offer the app on those markets that are compatible with non-phone Android devices?

The Year of The Linux Desktop Is Here!

[gmiernicki]

The Year of The Linux Desktop Is Here! All we had to do was redefine the word desktop to equal phones + tablets + televeisions. Now Linux is set to take over the world! Rejoice!!!!!!111

It's been said before but . . .

[Linsaran]

I for one welcome our new android overlords.

are you kidding?

[t2t10]

Android is already one of the top operating systems, and it has most mobiles OSes beat hands down in terms of functionality, usability, and connectivity. The only mobile OS that's even remotely a competitor still is iOS. There is some chance that Intel and Nokia do something good with MeeGo. But that's it.

Windows 7 is a big fat zombie at this point; it is common (and acceptable) on desktop machines, but on mobile the old Windows Mobile is dead, and the new Windows Mobile is a shot in the dark with a completely new and untested system.

What about network equipment?

[LoudMusic]

The massive amount of network equipment like switches, wireless access points, routers, embedded firewalls ... they all run an OS too and the vast majority of them don't run Android or even Linux.

Re:I think ...

[mlts]

I have used a number of homebrew ROMs on my Android device, and never have had to do all of that. The worst I've had to do was tap on the Advanced Task Killer icon to bump off some background apps which were slurping up more than their share of CPU.

Android has a number of weaknesses; having to reboot often isn't really one of them unless you are using a modded/custom ROM that isn't very stable.

If you want a real complaint about the Android phone market (not Android itself), its the fact that there are no developer friendly devices that have a recent CPU and specs available in the US. I know the N1 flopped, but I do wish Google would have an ADP refresh every 3-6 months.

Prosumption

[tepples]

Remember that this is a consumer OS for those that will consume media and information. There will always be a tier using the PC to create and maintain the matrix for those than inhabit it. Those that create and manage content will still need something more robust and ergonomic than a gadget in one pocket.

The fear here is that a culture of producing on one device and consuming on another might lead to PCs becoming unaffordable for home users. This would discourage prosumption, making it more difficult for people who are consumers to become small-time producers. This has already happened in video games.

Re:Apple?

[UnknowingFool]

I think the OP was referring not just the products but the kind of partnerships involved. While Apple might sell products that compete with MS and Android powered products, they sell the whole product. MS and Android compete directly with each other in that they supply the software to hardware makers. This is why Android threatens MS so much.

Resistor is...

[PseudonymousBraveguy]

Resistor is useless

  ,-----,-----,
  |     |     |
o-'    ,-,    |
o-,    | |    |
  |    '-'    |
  |     |     |
  `-----'-----'

Symbian? In my USA?

[tepples]

Well, Symbian dwarfs both iOS and Android

Not in the United States market. Apple and Google are headquartered in the United States.

Among industrialized anglophone countries

[tepples]

Or are you referring to just the US?

From the FAQ: Assume the United States market unless otherwise specified. Among industrialized anglophone countries, the United States has two-thirds of the population.

Re:Among industrialized anglophone countries

[donscarletti]

The FAQ refers to the having more stories regarding the US than any other nation because the editors are American and invites people to submit stories relating to other countries. Suggesting that it gives any reference frame for comments is somewhat disingenuous.

Also, the US population is extremely large, I live in China and I still get that sense when I visit the US, however it does not really dominate the population on English language websites since these days there are a hell of a lot of people out there that know English and like computers.

Re:I think ...

[PseudonymousBraveguy]

What you probably observe is simple selection bias: Your peer group is usually not random, but usually consists of people that have some things in common. Thus, every "fact" that you observe in your peer group will tell more about what people you are likely to be friends with (or generally what people you are most likely to meet), than about the preferences ot the general population.

75% of my collegues use linux, but that says more about my current employer than about the market share of linux.

It is what it is

[roc97007]

I think it's way too early to predict Android taking over the world. But even if so, it could be worse. It could be Windows CE.

Re:It is what it is

[XxtraLarGe]

I think it's way too early to predict Android taking over the world. But even if so, it could be worse. It could be Windows CE.

The thought of that makes me WinCE!

Re:Nope

[mlts]

The cool thing about Android? If something does come along that is better, Android can move fast enough to be able to be feature comparable.

Let's take encryption. Say users want to completely encrypt everything on their device, and memory card. Android can start sporting LUKS for partition encryption, or for files, it can do EncFS via FUSE. This functionality could be added on by anyone in the food chain, be it Google, the phone maker, the cellular provider, a ROM modder, or even an app vendor with an app that needs root to install the needed items. If iOS had to sport complete filesystem encryption, the only place it will be coming from is Apple, and that would be likely only on new devices the next year.

Re:Apple?

[sosume]

>The list was phones, tablets, set top boxes and tvs. Apple makes
>products in 3 of the 4 of these, and rather dominates the market in two of them.

Do they? Look at the linked article. In phones, Apple has a 14% market share, vs Symbian (47%) and RIM (20%) Hardly dominating. Apple TV? Haven't seen it yet. The only market in which they may claim a large position is in tablets, and I seriously doubt if they can hold the lead very long. Android tablets are appearing fast now, especially cheap Asian knockoffs, which sell like warm bread. Compared to the iPad which has serious shortcomings (vendor lock-in, content restrictions, not expandable) the future looks bright for those devices.

Re:Resistance != Futile

[bberens]

Futile = Volts/Amps?

Pride comes before the fall

[Coward Anonymous]

Android lives in the U.S. only because iPhone doesn't live anywhere but on AT&T. If the rumors of iPhone on Verizon (and perhaps T-Mobile and the rest of the gang), there is a very good chance Android handset sales will shrivel significantly.
Android and Google do not have the mobile brand recognition that Apple does, not even close.

Growth will be limited by compatibility issues

[jpc1957]

Already Android is having app/device compatibility and upgrade issues. As a longtime Windows Mobile developer (and currently iOS), I see the same issues Microsoft had; dead end devices, immature marketplace, app fragmentation, development difficulties and low return on investment.. These were all manageable for industrial use, but not for a consumer market. I'm all for the choice (iOS, Android, WM 7), but seems a bit early to say one will dominate.

Crystal balls

[Dzimas]

Predicting the future is an impossible task where IT is involved. Analysts always base future predictions on current technology because it's impossible to foresee disruptive innovations. That makes their predictions largely useless beyond a relatively short timeframe. So while "Android will own 99% of the market by 2020" makes a great headline, it's not worth its weight in pixels. It's as relevant as "Economy seen growing at a 4% pace for the next X years" or "By 2100, humans will be stacked three deep in NYC"

I don't think there's too much to worry about

[sean.peters]

Sure, there's lots of room for Android to grow, but consider: there's still, even after all this time, a fair number of ATMs using OS/2, iOS isn't about to roll over and die in the world of handheld/tablet devices (and of course there are lots of others there too - WebOS, Symbian, etc), there are plenty of MS Windows devices of various flavors... it's quite unlikely that any one technology is going to take over any platform to the extent Windows did in the PC world, and even there, MS's grip is slipping somewhat.

Oh, yeah?

[sean.peters]

Well when I'm in a group, I usually see one iPhone (which is mine, if that matters), 3 or 4 Androids, and a bunch of "dumb" phones. And my anecdote can beat up your anecdote.

Or maybe we could all agree that anecdotes != data.

Not true.

[crhylove]

Android IS and WILL beat Apple the same way MS did:

By encouraging and allowing superior third party apps. I think it's hilarious that Steve Jobs never learned his lesson during the Mac/PC war. He's still operating a closed walled garden approach, and he's going to lose eventually and inevitably AGAIN, and for the same reason!

Not that I'm a giant Google fanboy. They've done plenty of evil lately and frankly I don't think Android is the best OS in existence right now. I'm much more of a Linux Mint fanboy, but there doesn't seem to be a good TRULY open OS for phones just yet.... I still have to hack my phone and install Cyanogenmod to get the best OS available. This is not the FOSS dream that I think many were hoping Android would enable.

I fixed it for you.

[crhylove]

The way I feel about it is: It's my phone, I payed for it, if you don't like what I'm doing with my own property, FUCK YOU!!!!

That's not smartphone vs. desktop, though

[sean.peters]

It's PC vs. thin client. For serious work a phone is never going to replace a desktop, no matter what operating system either one of them uses. It's too hard to 1) get data into it (tiny keyboard) and 2) work with various windows, documents, etc (tiny screen). The only use cases where a phone would work for this kind of thing are those where the need for mobility trumps the need to easily do 1) and 2), as pointed out by GP. Tablets are slightly better in that they at least solve the screen problem, but you still need a keyboard. And once you've added a keyboard to the thing, how is it different from a desktop form factor?

Re:That's not smartphone vs. desktop, though

[itsdapead]

It's PC vs. thin client.

...and Android, ChromeOS and iOS are all potential thin client operating systems.

For serious work a phone is never going to replace a desktop, no matter what operating system either one of them uses.

TFA wasn't just talking about phones: Android is going into tablets and TVs, too. iOS is already in the iPad and iTV. There's no reason that they couldn't show up in nettops, too.

At the moment, the prime candidate is the iPad, but that's a luxury item costing as much as a PC (one of the other failings of thin clients) - but the cheap Android-based tablets should be hitting the market Real Soon Now.

It's too hard to 1) get data into it (tiny keyboard)

typing on an iPad-sized device isn't so bad, though, and you can plug standard keyboards into an iPad (I assume Android and ChromeOS can likewise cope).

and 2) work with various windows, documents, etc (tiny screen).

That's something of a power-user thing - an awful lot of PC users I've watched work full screen and rely on cut&paste to get data between apps. Which is how iOS and Android work...

And once you've added a keyboard to the thing, how is it different from a desktop form factor?

Its very compact, very light, running a low-powered ARM CPU instead of an Intel space heater, is cheap (if its not an Apple), has no spinning HD, instant on/off and keeps all its data on servers. Oh, and couldn't hack running Windows 7 in a million years.

Re:That's not smartphone vs. desktop, though

[sean.peters]

TFA wasn't just talking about phones: Android is going into tablets

TFA may have been about both, but this particular slashdot thread is about smartphone vs. desktop:

most people reading here are desktop-centric, and the smartphone os is a secondary platform, in terms of work, play, and psychological orientation

but we are rapidly entering a world that is smartphone-centric, and the desktop os is a secondary platform, in terms of work, play, and psychological orientation. the whole desktop segment will be marginal

I'm not responding to the article, I'm responding to this thread. The initial poster made the claim that desktop systems will become marginal, which MBGMorden took issue with. You followed up with an argument about thin vs. fat clients, which is sort of a non-sequitur in the context of this thread. I was trying to point that out, and get back to the original topic of the thread.

Re: slashdot, we're showing our age

[__aajbyc7391]

slashdot, we're showing our age

...guilty as charged ;-)

That's totally beside the point, at least for iOS

[sean.peters]

For Apple's devices, that subsidy is coming from AT&T, and its only purpose is to tie you to AT&T for a minimum contract term. The restriction on what you can INSTALL comes (almost) entirely from Apple, and has nothing to do with the subsidy. These aren't "network" features we're talking about here.As an analogy, what if you bought a Dell computer from, say, Comcast, at a discount in exchange for getting internet service from them... and then Dell said "here's the list of what you're allowed to install on it". What would that have to do with your subsidy? Dell's not even a party to the agreement - they're just providing the hardware.

Really, Hitler used closed source totalitariasm

[h00manist]

Hitler's politics are nowadays mostly described "Nazism", but he invented nothing, the underlying philosophy was Fascism. It was embarassingly also adopted by many US corporations of the time, a short-sighted, desperate reaction to the growth of anarchism and soviet communism. In regards to production, Fascism's model for distribution of labor was Corporatism . Corporatism mostly survived WW2 and continues to guide labor distribution. As corporate products, all cellphones would be results of contemporary Corporatist labor ideas. Open source however, important component of Android, has some labor performed in a method mostly compatible with Anarchism, (kernel.org, et al) and some labor from Corporatism (google.com.) so it is a rather a mixed animal, but already breaks with pure Corporatism labor management ideas. Even iOS has some open source, though perhaps not enough to make it mixed. Pure Corporatism-production would include no open souce code at all. That would leave us with WinCE and many other proprietary cellphones systems.

Evidence that windows os's are aligned with Corporatism, associated with Mussolini and Fascism, and adopted by Hitler and the Nazi, are that Enigma, the famous military encryption code, ran on Windows 95, and was created at George Mason University.

. http://www.thenextwave.com/EnigmaHP-Win.html

Re:I think ...

[sycorob]

We had this exact discussion in my MBA class last night. My classmate was doing a presentation about an online shopping portal he wanted to make, and was planning to allow people to use it via SMS. Everybody jumped on him for using a "dying technology," one guy said "everyone I see has a smartphone, there's no point in catering to simple phones." Well, yeah. A lot of people going for their Master's degrees probably do have a smart phone. And in corporate jobs, most people do have smart phones now, either because they were given one for work, or because they bought it themselves. But the data says that 80% of cellular customers have simple phones, or "feature" phones, that don't have a data plan.

That's why you should use hard data, and not just look at what your friends are doing.

Re:Apple?

[a_nonamiss]

I'm not completely disagreeing with you, because you're mostly right, however, I think you'd be surprised at all the things that Windows CE is embedded into without most people even knowing it. Television sets, ATMs, Generic set-top boxes, kiosk displays, just to name a few. There are quite a lot of devices that use a WinCE kernel without any branding or splash screen.

Really, though, I agree with you. I think these embedded devices are what the GP post was referring to.

Does anyone really care anymore?

[frank_adrian314159]

So Android is going to be big. Who cares - it's just an OS with a UI and comm stack on it. It's a utility.

Besides, it's all the crap that's built around it that's the issue. I can put a locked down proprietary stack on any OS. And anyone who thinks that the OS and comm stack aren't going to be locked down when these things are sold with hardware is really naive. The fact is that support costs will kill anyone that tries to put a non-locked-down product. Margins in hardware devices are already slim enough that no one is going to go through the added cost of letting people install random X software on their hardware device. It will be a phone, or a TV, or a combo phone-TV w/browser. Use it for what it is and stop expecting it to be a full-purpose computer. If you want a computer, buy a computer.

Just because the OS is open doesn't mean that a hardware vendor needs to let you muck with it easily (or at all). If you don't like this, don't buy the device.

Re:I think ...

[SETIGuy]

It's similar where I work. It's new toy lock-in syndrome. Everyone here got an iPhone when they were new and when they get replacements they get an iPhone because they are used to it. Maybe 15% will switch each time. And there's still no AT&T connectivity on this site. Now nobody is buying iPhones except people who own iPhones. But that's people who work at a research lab. The rest of the world doesn't necessarily suffer from new toy lock-in syndrome. When I go to doctors' offices, I see Droids and dumb phones.

Is gApps4Archos.apk even legal?

[tepples]

Unlikely, unless it's one of the pre-production demo models.

I apologize for the confusion; English lacks tenseless verb forms.

Well, when you eventually do get that Archos 43, you could download gApps4Archos.apk

Is that even legal? Remember this cease-and-desist from a year ago?

Re:Is gApps4Archos.apk even legal?

[SETIGuy]

Is that even legal? Remember this cease-and-desist [slashdot.org] from a year ago?

Beats me. Downloading it isn't going to get you into trouble. Distributing it might. If you feel guilty, once you have the Market app installed you can upgrade to the official Market app.

The whole non-phone vs phone thing shouldn't cause problems other than apps that require the ability to dial (very few) or listen on the microphone won't work. GPS apps won't work. But things that just work on the network and output audio or video, like Pandora Radio or Flash, should work.

Re:I think ...

[JesseDegenerate]

Statistics are just as bullshit. Usually sliced from a particular set of research data to prove the OP's point. "Apple just overtook RIM" Android to take over iOS this xxx" I'm sure those are both total truths and dirty lies depending on the "data fact" sheet.

Re:Nope

[JesseDegenerate]

You do know that Android's don't support on device encryption for exchange support and iOS devices later than the 3g do, right? It's been like this for over a year. By the way, your wrong about the other part too. There's 3 ways to multi task in iOS, only one way is provided by Apple. It's cute (and typical of a fanboy) to mention modders in your android points, then leave out the jailbreak scene. And people who write jailbroken apps, do my friend, have root access. You also act like OS X and iOS don't take linux ports just as easily. Your not the only one with a bash shell. keep hating for no reason tho. I have all the best parts of your UI, and my UI, and triple the apps. It's nice that comex ported android's flash too...

Re:I think ...

[BitZtream]

I'm a software developer in Research Triangle Park North Carolina, home of Redhat and MANY other technology companies, with offices for development Sony-Ericson as well, and of course IBM.

I'm a geek, in the middle of several entire cities of geeks, who do nothing but work with phones and/or Linux all day long. If there was a place that was biased towards Android, the only one I can think of that would be more biased would be Google HQ.

My 'peer group' sells Linux, support for Linux and Linux software for a living. I agree with your logic, but I find it hard to believe considering exactly who my peer group is.

Re:Java is a safe investment already

[AltairDusk]

If we look at the codebase for everything in popular use today I bet C/C++ would have a greater share than Java, this is of course my own opinion.

Re:Android may use Linux as an underpinning...

[Daniel Phillips]

As open as Android allegedly is, most devices I know of do not allow this sort of pick and choose approach.

Yet.

Re:That's totally beside the point, at least for i

[inerlogic]

bullshit, you think Apple giving AT&T exclusivity isn't a subsidy? AT&T, a company which never owned it's own network 'til recently was a bit player at best, until apple came with their zombie legion of ignorant fans frothing at the mouth to suckle at Jobs' teet...

you're analogy is flawed and you don't know what you're talking about, move along to the next thread please, kthnxbi

Why jailbreaking ?

[DrYak]

yes, but to obtain this geekdom paradise,you need to *jailbreak* the device. You have to jump through hoops to get the device do stuff that its makers don't want you to do. And you're at the mercy of the next update bricking your phone.

this doesn't make much sense,specially when there are perfectly valid alternatives.

systems which are homebrew friendly out-of-the box,and let you instal stuff out of the walled garden if you want (HP/Palm webOS has tonnes of interesting stuff you can instal on them. Including SSH, Bash, an XServer etc.)

systems which ALREADY feature all the goodies of a computer-in-a-pocket, (like the Nokia N900).

all these work without jailbreaking/exploits/or othe such non-sense.

the fact that android provide a little bit less features out-of-the-box, doesn't mean you must jump on the most locked up device and go through complex unsupported/unapproved/discouraged procedure that could backfire next time Saint-Jobs decides to Fart.

Re:Why jailbreaking ?

[anethema]

Your post is not true on several fronts..

For one, being at the mercy of the next update bricking your phone. It just does not work like that.

For one, the iPhone in its current state is unbrickable through software. There is ALWAYS a way to recover it. You can yank the cord mid-flash and still recover your device (google DFU mode).

Next, the current jailbreaks to the iPhone 4 etc are forever as they are in bootrom. My phone would need to be eeprom flashed by apple to get rid of the current exploit. All I have to do is wait a day or two for a hacker to update the tools for the next version and I'm good to go.

I realize other platforms already have a hacker mentality built it, but what's funny is the way it works.

Android for example you need to root anyways to install any of the really cool stuff. No difference there. And once you do, you can't install half the stuff you can on the iPhone since the userbase currently is not there, so many of the tools don't exist.

You talked about giving up a bit of functionality but I disagree. On android, you get embedded tools, that's it. Embedded ssh, embedded commands, etc. On the iPhone you get full sets of BSD/Linux gnu tools. You get a full and powerful debian apt packing system. You really get a full computer's worth of tools. If I could find a 8p8c dongle for the phone I could almost toss my laptop.

There are no hoops to jump through to jailbreak either, it almost couldn't be easier. You run one small .exe, follow maybe 10-20 seconds worth of instructions, and you're jailbroken. If you are a nerd and find this hard you need to hand in your nerd card.

Steve jobs at this point, cannot fuck this up for me, however smelly his fart. The exploit exists in hardware, and the hackers are out there in far more force than on Android.

I realize this could change, but currently, I still believe the iPhone is MUCH more of a nerd/geek/hacker's platform than android.

Again : Why ?

[DrYak]

I wasn't aware that modern Jailbreaks are permanent. To be frank I completely stop following this story the moment more hacker-friendly hardware started to appear.

Nonetheless, my arguments are still valid.

On android, you get embedded tools, that's it. Embedded ssh, embedded commands, etc.

Yes, I know. I read it the first time you wrote about it. (And by the way, you're mistaken, it's still possible to install a whole Debian userland next to android, if you really want).

I'm not defending Android as "The Only True Platform". I'm just wondering why, as a consequence of the above, you're immediately jumping to the most locked phone of the market - a phone whose maker explicitly don't want you to run non-approved software.

On the iPhone you get full sets of BSD/Linux gnu tools. You get a full and powerful debian apt packing system. You really get a full computer's worth of tools

...which you access only after doing a procedure which the maker of the iPhone *does NOT* want you to do.

My webOS-powered Palm Pre also features bash, openssh and other real gnu&bsd userland. The whole thing is installable through "ipkg" (an apt derivative for embed linux) with a nice frontend (Preware is to ipkg what synaptic is to apt). And for that I didn't need to do any rooting/cracking/exploiting/jailbreaking.

I open the box I just bought, got the Palm and its charger, turned it on, and typed a very well documented command. I repeat : I didn't use some specially purposed EXE designed to crack some walled-garden protection, I just typed a special command as written in the devs' documentation.

Enabling end users to go out of the walled garden and install any 3rd party software they want is 100% supported by Palm - they give you the tools for it and provide the necessary documentation. They even designed OS upgrades in such a way that they shouldn't break when encountering a non-standard set of installed software. The whole thing is designed in a hacker-friendly way, even if this isn't their primary market (out-of-the-box, it features a Joe Sixpack-compatible walled garden model. Except that the wall has a door, they give you the key, you're free to open it and they'll watch the garden while you're away. Meanwhile, Apple has built watch towers and makes a fuss everytime someone manages to evade through the minefield they planted outside)

And meanwhile, there are stuff like the Nokia N900 which are full-blown Linux systems (complete with all the gnu userland and an X-Server out of the box) in a palmsized form factor.

I realize this could change, but currently, I still believe the iPhone is MUCH more of a nerd/geek/hacker's platform than android.

and still a piece of crap produced by an anally-retentive control-freak when compared to what exists elsewhere.

When I was to choose my current platform, I took time to look all the alternatives, and selected this which not only suited *ME* but also encouraged a *hacker-friendly* company. /.ers always speak about voting with one's wallet, I voted with mine : As long as Apple want to control what runs on their hardware at any cost, and actively prevent me from doing what I want with hardware I bought, they won't get a penny from me.

There are plenty of other alternatives around. Be it Android (which you don't like because of the initial lack of full bsd/gnu userland and good package managing, and because of the complexity of an installation procedure), webOS (I really like it), Maemp/MeeGo, and tons of others.

You : You're just financially encouraging a bully who won't let you play by anything but it rules (even if the bully fails).

It is as if you wanted to share toys, saw that one boy only has small uninteresting ones, and decided therefore to go straight for the kid who has big toys but doesn't want to play with anyone else, despite the garden being full of other boys who would gladly invite you to s

Re:Again : Why ?

[anethema]

I totally agree with you on a ton of fronts. But for me the total package I just can't do.

With the iPhone I get the smooth UI, the huge app store, AND all the nerd stuff I need. The N900 is cool, but it is basically an EOL device, almost no devs, universally panned UI, but lots of hacker friendliness. You also lose the ability to do 3G on any major carrier.

Apple as a company sucks, their behavior sucks, the fact that the iPhone is locked down sucks. But in reality the end product STILL ends up better since the shit they DID do, they did well, and the hackers picked up the slack for the rest, no matter what apple wanted.

Morally I agree it is better to support nokia or another companies that support hackers, but I just can't fight through shitty user interfaces, slow grahics, and a crappy app selection just to balm the moral aspect of it.

On the other hand I've used webOS and the GUI is done right unlike android/n900. If the user share picked up, I see what HP plans to do with the platform, and development caught up to iPhone/Android, I would be very likely to switch.

I'm not married to the iPhone, I just think that TODAY it is the best solution out there. I am perfectly willing to switch, and put my money where my mouth was buying the Nexus One and not having an iPhone for months, but in the end it sucked,a lot. (for me).