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China Threatens To Cut Sales of iPhones and US Cars if 'Naive' Trump Pursues Trade War (theguardian.com)
US president-elect Donald Trump would be a "naive" fool to launch an all-out trade war against China, a Communist party-controlled newspaper has claimed. From a report on The Guardian:During the acrimonious race for the White House Trump repeatedly lashed out at China, vowing to punish Beijing with "defensive" 45% tariffs on Chinese imports and to officially declare it a currency manipulator. "When they see that they will stop the cheating," the billionaire Republican, who has accused Beijing of "the greatest theft in the history of the world", told a rally in August. On Monday the state-run Global Times warned that such measures would be a grave mistake. "If Trump wrecks Sino-US trade, a number of US industries will be impaired. Finally the new president will be condemned for his recklessness, ignorance and incompetence," the newspaper said in an editorial. The Global Times claimed any new tariffs would trigger immediate "countermeasures" and "tit-for-tat approach" from Beijing.
If China were to do such a thing it might... reduce unemployment in the US.
Maybe then people will finally come to realize what the iPhone really costs.
If a trade war occurs with China, consumer prices will significantly inflate. Tech company stocks will fall significantly, as a large amount of gear is sourced internationally. For those with an interest to keeping your 401(k) safe, I suspect the first thing is to consider which companies source to China, as opposed to countries that use Taiwan, Korea, Japan, etc. Hmm. I wonder if anyone has made just such a list; e.g. "How to prepare your 401(k) for a trade war with China"!
Because he will extract concessions. That's what you can do when you have a persistent trade deficit. The Chinese only understand force.
Wow... This would actually drive manufacturing back to the United States or other areas if there is fear of state withholding shipments. This could be a very big benefit not a detriment.
1. Enable Apple to bring profits back
2. Create manufacturing centers here which are robot/automated
3. Hire middle class to manage and maintain robots/design line
4. Stamp made in america
It's a win, win , win for everyone.
Who will buy Buick automobiles?
China has absolutely no appreciation for how much of the Republican base and the blue dog democrats are at a total ZFG attitude toward free trade now. What are you going to do, China? Make my LG G5 that was made in South Korea more expensive? Make it harder for Hyundai, Kia, Honda and Toyota to produce their parts in South Korea and Japan and then assemble them in the American South for millions of Americans? Ford management is probably saying "yes, more please" as this will primarily hurt GM and Chrysler since Ford mainly outsources to developed countries and Mexico.
Our trade partners are probably splitting their sides over this. South Korea's response will simply be "we see China is acting like a crybully bitch. You want to trade with someone who ain't a bitch?"
Anonymous coward online calls billionaire president a naive fool. Film at at 11.
for iPhones, have they thought that through?
This would:
- hurt Apple in the short term
- hurt Ireland in short term ?
- no real short term affect on US outside of Apple
- help US in long term
- hurt China in short term and long term
Forget the 401k - make a list of vital necessities that are currently only sourced from China (e.g. much of consumer electronics) so we can stockpile those and build up alternate sources.
The US cars in China are assembled there, from parts mostly made in China. It's the same for the Iphone, which is fading anyway, as Chinese companies ramp up the quality of their locally designed brands.
Thats a far cry from even Apple phones, which even if they were assembled in the US, would be made with many parts not sourced in the US.
Do not start a trade war with a country that makes damn near everything you buy unless you want to suffer very very badly.
Problem is the US A would be negotiating from a position of weakness relative to China.
Its not just products made in China, its Raw material also which China disallows to export in raw form.
However, experts say officials in Beijing are still battling to untangle what a Trump presidency means...
Yeah, well that's pretty much everyone who wants more detail than "make America great again".
"What the American public doesn't know is what makes them the American public." -Ray Zalinsky (Tommy Boy)
..will never come back to the US.
The DMCA makes it extremely prohibitive.
It is better to pay the tariff than it is to open yourself up to patent trolling.
From the aritlce:
"A batch of Boeing orders will be replaced by Airbus. US auto and iPhone sales in China will suffer a setback, and US soybean and maize imports will be halted. China can also limit the number of Chinese students studying in the US."
If limiting the number of students studying in the US is on their threat list then the list must represent the entirety of their leverage against the USA because that's a pretty insignificant threat to include.
iPhones and other smartphones being made here will probably up the prices slightly, but most of the estimates I've heard are absurd.
No they are not. For one many/most of the key components for smartphones (and laptops and desktops and...) are made in China too. Where do you think you are going to get parts? The supply chain for these does not exist in the US or EU. Worse China has a monopoly on rare earth minerals without which you cannot build many modern electronics. The US has reserves of these but re-opening the mines for these would not happen overnight.
Trump starting a trade war would drive up prices dramatically on a huge amount of goods and would almost instantly trigger a recession or depression. It would be catastrophically stupid of him to do that. A trade war would benefit no one and it sure as hell would not increase net jobs in the US.
I'd also suspect that the increased wages (higher demand for employees = fewer minimum wage jobs) would more than offset the price increases you'd see.
No it would not. The number of extra people who would be employed by this wouldn't offset the extra cost of production. That is why it is being produced in China now. If that were not true then we would already see production happening here in the US. Furthermore having a few people making higher wages doesn't help the millions who would have to pay more for the product itself. I don't work for Apple or a smartphone manufacturing company so someone else having higher wages doesn't help me one bit.
He is not a billionaire. More wind and lies from Nazis like you.
I welcome the day I don't see CHINA product anywhere, anytime, anyhow, anywho. As for their market, they will have no market when those stupid Americans finally stop buying MADE in CHINA crap to save a few pennies at the checkout, only to return soon to get another piece of shit to replace the crap that stopped working well before its time.
If China enacts sanctions on the US I feel like they would win in the short term but once we bring all manufacturing back home we'd be better off in the long term and China would slowly eat itself without US consumers. We will be ok, they will not. This is evidenced by the fact that they threatened reciprocity. If they had nothing to fear then they wouldn't make threats. If we ever demanded non-Chinese made products (Made in USA resurgence) it would put a lot of brick and mortar stores out of business especially in the automotive sector like AutoZone, AdvanceAuto, HarborFreight. For computer parts though... ummm... we're fucked soooooo hard. It's a good thing Qualcomm just came back to the US and made a huge deal. I think Qualcomm could play a major role for us. Bring back the Made in USA advertising. We don't need China or any other nation. We already have everything we need to be successful as a country laying dormant. Turn the bullet factories back into toy factories (If you're too young to understand the reference look it up).
If China were to do such a thing it might... reduce unemployment in the US.
This sort of drivel is why we have Trump in the White House. Idiots who think a naive sound bite is a valid substitute for sane trade policy and economic reality. A trade war with China would do no such thing. In fact it would almost certainly result in increased unemployment and significantly increased prices on a wide variety of goods. China and the US depend heavily on each other economically. A trade war between China and the US would probably result in at minimum a global recession in the best case scenario.
He will spin the whole thing as being *their* fault, and a consequence of *their* choices, and not his, liken their position to being that of blackmailers, and encourage the US public to perceive it in the same way.
File under 'M' for 'Manic ranting'
It is not just iPhones kids. China is the only source in the world for basic component parts for more complex items. Many building blocks like rare earth metals, vitamins, dog food, electronic components come, if not exclusively enough so that the difference cannot keep up with demand. Everything, not just your toys, will increase at least 48% in price. This will trigger retaliation & not just from China, plenty of people have grievances against US trade & will be happy to jump on board. Inflation will spike & the reaction will be high unemployment here in the US as well as much of the rest of the world. He has offered a childish solution to a very complex problem & this is what you wanted. You best pray you do not get it
Great idea. Can we give them more technology and help them with their military too ? How about we allow them to ignore the climate change accords while we kill off our energy production too. Maybe let them manipulate their currency and buy influence in the west. Let them buy US industry... in ways we could never reciprocate in their country... yes... let's all do what China wants...
5 out of 6 people enjoy Russian Roulette & 6 out of 7 Dwarfs are not Happy
This vote and the calls for protectionism in the USA and UK strike me as odd. Back in my day... it was the Conservatives and Republicans and similar parties defending trickle-down, supply-side, trade leads to growth, which leads to prosperity for everyone.
Now there's support for reducing freedom of movement in the UK (and other places in Europe), and for the USA to erect trade barriers. All this time, the official explanation was that international trade was not a zero-sum game, that if there's more trade, everyone eventually gains and that protectionism was BAD. I can't remember if state investment on infrastructure was even worse than protectionism, but in any case it was something that Chicago school/Republican politicians just would not have.
Sounds like now In Republican America, state interventions Trump China?
Yes, the Americans could start producing iPhones and cars.
The US makes millions of cars and commercial vehicles every year. Auto manufacturing is alive and well in the US. However high labor costs in the US necessitate a high level of automation in US auto assembly plants so increases in auto production in the US won't result in higher wages or substantially increased employment in the auto assembly plants.
So, basically the economy would go up because of lower unemployment, and down from higher prices..
Faulty analysis. A trade war with China would cause short term unemployment in both the US and China to rise because prices would immediately rise. It would take substantial time for alternative supply chains to be built and high costs would result in fewer product sales and thus fewer jobs. Virtually all economists agree that protecionism is a net negative for the economy as a whole even if it positively impacts select industries. This is economics 101 stuff. Protectionism is almost never a net benefit to a society.
In the short run. And that's been the problem for, well, ever. Nobody wants to do the hard thing because the pain is so great RIGHT NOW that you can't get re-elected for doing it. So all we get is this impossibly slow circling of the bowl.
Hahahahahahahaha.
We in American buy far more products from China than China does of our products. China would be shooting themselves in the foot.
Net worth 3.7Billion. US. That puts him pretty firmly in the billionaire club. Whoever you are I understand why you post as AC.
Any smartphone manufacturer who employs cheap (foreign) labor ends up with a competitive advantage over a domestic manufacturer, while still benefiting from the domestic manufacturer's decision to build in the US and employ US workers.
That is correct. As long as the US has wages that substantially exceed those of other countries there will be a strong pull to locate labor intensive jobs in places where labor costs are low. That is why most US based manufacturing is capital intensive instead of labor intensive.
It would be a very good thing if electronics makers were to start building in the US, but without being forced to as a group, it's not going to happen because while all of them building in the US together would have no negative impacts, any of them choosing not to participate would negatively impact those that do.
It would (probably) be a good thing but trade barriers will NOT accomplish that goal. Those industries will only come back to the US for one of three reasons. 1) Technological advancement, 2) Labor costs falling in the US relative to elsewhere or, 3) advances in automation turning labor intensive production into capital intensive production. But since the supply chains for electronics production have spent the last 3-4 decades moving to Asia they aren't going to come back quickly even if they ever do. Asian manufacturers have a currently insurmountable cost advantage so production will stay there until that is overcome. Trade barriers will not in any way erase the cost advantage.
Debt is only an asset if you can collect it. There's no debt collector out there big enough to muscle up on the USA at the moment, so who is China going to call? And if they ruin our credit rating, what's that do to theirs? Nothing positive.
"You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
That's just it, it won't be an "all out" trade war. The summary mentioned two products, iPhones and cars, China will pick the products that hurt the US the most. What the counteraction will be, I don't know.
Foreign students can pay a lot more for their education than domestic students, and hence they are quite a cash cow for educational institutions. Don't under estimate this threat, as those same educational institutions will have to replace that income somehow - most obviously by either receiving more subsidies or by increasing the cost of education for domestic students.
Of all the things reasonable people would put on a list of vital necessities, consumer electronics is not among them.
Do you relish the day when no American products are sold in China (what the article is actually talking about)? When US profits tank due to the loss the world's largest market?
Sorry, teleporters just kill you and then make a copy. A perfect, soul-less copy.
At its core the reason Trump is going to be #45 is that most of this countries liberals and bunch of people who normally consider themselves conservatives consider the wealth distribution to be a problem.
I suspect its an optimization problem. Globalism and free-trade policy optimize for maximum economic output but not necessarily for equitable distribution. So they leave you with two options heavy handed policy of direct redistribution, which America has never been about or potentially looking at a return to some form of mercantilism abroad.
The reality is Apple isn't going to get out of the iPhone business if they can't make them in China they will either find somewhere else like Vietnam to do (depending on how the trade policies get implemented) it or they will make them here. The cost of a iPhone (or any smart phone) probably goes up, and therefore the median standard of living probably declines somewhat. On the other hand some jobs come back to the states and the mean distribution of income levels out a little.
The truth is China isn't actually in all that great a position when it comes to trade war. We can tariff imports but not exports (Constitutionally) an import tariff on our side had a similar economic impact as an export tariff on theirs it makes their goods more expensive for the American consumer, and in theory American goods or American alternatives more competitive at the margin. The only difference is to which government the tax revenue flows. We have a trade deficit with China today, yes they can negatively impact some American industries and favor some of their domestic industry but not as broadly as we can that in reverse.
China does not currently have the domestic sink for their economic outputs we have either, that is changing but its not there today. My guess is if we really shut down the China trade today it would trigger a recession here and depression deflation driven death spiral there. The reality is China will quickly learn they have to keep the doors open to sell into the American market as much as possible or they are really screwed.
Repeal the 17th Amendment TODAY! Also Please Read http://www.gnu.org/philosophy/right-to-read.html
China is scared stupid. TPP is dead. Obamacare is on notice. If Hillary is smart she is making long-term travel arrangements. Populist movements around the free world are gaining steam with Brexit and Trump.The EU faces big economic trouble if the US makes NATO members pay their fair share. Mexico is circling the drain. And the man hasn't even taken office yet. America will truly be great again.
Trump 2020.
But the best schools are already heavily oversubscribed so they wont be left wanting for students if China stops sending theirs.
Macdonalds, KFC? Even I think this is an evil that should not be put upon the peeps in CN, or anyone from anywhere.
Saudis nearly ran out of money when fracking hit big times. Study that sentence. Life is your quiz.
a contingency plan for this. I wouldn't be surprised if Tim himself isn't touring foundries in the USA and other countries that will fall outside of Trump's embargo.
i am so very tired....
He never shared his returns. Your number there probably came from the Internet. Trump and his supporters don't believe in anything.
Economically it's a losing proposition for China. There's a good chance they will do something anyway out of pride, a show of strength for the citizenry, or even a national security concern... but I just don't think it'll be that major. If they choose cars and iPhones because those are big, the retaliation from the US would be severe and much much bigger, because they have so much more to lose, and so many specialized industries that don't even have a US counterpart anymore due to decades of outsourcing. If they just want to make a point, I think they'll pick some minor things to save face while agreeing to reduce the overall deficit.
But who knows. Interesting times.
and the third comment in is about a nazi. Thank you godwin for proving a hilarious law to label irate liberals by.
Donald is about to learn that running the USA is much more difficult than pretending to be a successful businessman on reality TV.
Heavily oversubscribed by students willing to pay the same amount for that place, or heavily oversubscribed by students who would pay a lot less for that place?
However chinese students don't take on american loans backed by the US gov't when they apply for school here. Not only are they a cash cow, they pay in cash too.
Do you relish the day when no Chinese products are sold in US, When Chinese economy tanks due to the lost of its largest export destination?
Uses slurs like "Nazi".. classy and original. You are the new face of hate, and you don't even realize it. Evil people usually think they're just fanatically righteous.
The U.S. is the largest exporter of Pork, Beef, Almonds, Cherries, Ginsing, Soybeans, and misc Grains/Seeds to China. They screwed their farmland for manufacturing and have run out of room to go back which is why they're trying to lay claim to the south china sea to rape and pillage that also. They're not in a very good position to negotiate with the best deal maker on the planet. Both Japan and Korea would smell blood in the water and make a possible move on China if they don't deal with the U.S. and we severely weaken them and there's no doubt Trump would turn a blind eye because he's focused on the U.S. first.
Comparative advantage is only useful when both countries are at full employment.
Comparative advantage has nothing whatsoever to do with "full" employment. Comparative advantage explains why it can be useful for two countries to both engage in production of a particular good even though one of the countries has an absolute cost advantage over the other. If comparative advantage did not exist neither would much international trade.
Bullshit. China has the capacity to replace all the manufacturing they buy from the US, if they want. Remember they have whole cities sitting empty.
We don't have an extra billion people to replace those purchases.
It's a very lopsided war, and we will lose if China wants us to.
There are two types of people in the world: Those who crave closure
China doesn't have the people to replace purchases either, at least not at the same price. They are poor remember? And they are too frugal to spend any amount of money on most of the cheap disposable crap we buy from them.
Look the math is simple and incontrovertible. We send $X worth of goods to China. China sends $(X + 365,000,000,000) worth of goods to the US.
A trade war hurts China more than it hurts us. Can you tell me what specifically you're disagreeing with? I really just don't understand. Give me some numbers to show that the US would be hurt more.
When ever trade is more than 10% difference, the nation being hurt is allowed to put tariffs on imports from that nation. As such, W and O SHOULD have this as well but did not. Hopefully trump will do this.
I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
More importantly those educational institutions publish policy papers and mould public opinion. They can publish paers which convince Trump is the next coming of Hitler and have the people riot in the streets. Oh never mind they are already doing that.
**Life is too short to be serious**
If China were to do such a thing it might... reduce unemployment in the US.
Precisely! The main reason to manufacture in China, aside from their vast pool of skilled but cheap labor, is their vast market. If the companies that manufacture there can't sell there, then they are just riding a high cost of shipping from there to their end destinations. Already, Apple is trying to get investments in India for manufacturing of iPhones and Macs, but for the US, it would make most sense for them to make stuff if not in CA itself, maybe in nearby states where taxes & regulations are less punitive.
Companies like Foxconn, Asus, et al would also have to set up manufacturing in the US, or risk going out of business. Only thing - they would probably prefer Right to Work states to Unionized states in the Rust belt that put Trump over the top, so he'd still have to figure out how to get jobs back there.
Keep scuffing your feet and being mad about it, that always works.
When US profits tank due to the loss the world's largest market?
The EU trading bloc is actually the world's largest market. It's got a comparable GDP to the US (whthin measurement error, pretty much), which is still substantially larger than China, and trades as a single entity.
SJW n. One who posts facts.
good and you will let use deal with North Korea as well.
Also time cook next time we want a iPhone unlocked do it or it's gitmo for you.
What is "tat" and where can I exchange it for tit?
Seriously.
Are we THAT terrified of not getting luxury goods?
Of having to actually do some of that heavy labor in-country here?
The way we're going right now, China's going to eventually own this country. Lock, stock and barrel.
If we want to prevent this from happening, this country's going to have to bite the bullet at some point.
I'd rather do it now, where it's only going to hurt a LOT. As opposed to 20-50 years down the road, when we're so deeply upside-down that China just forecloses on the country, and the REAL pain begins.
Chas - The one, the only.
THANK GOD!!!
Within the US, there will be a race - it won't necessarily be manufactured in CA - they may choose something like AL or MS or LA (the costs alone would veto Tim Cook's SJW activist objections on doing it there). But there are no laws in the US banning automation, which is where a bulk of manufacturing is these days, whether in China or here. So local wages would probably be something above minimum wage that can cover COLA. It would still be cheaper than imported goods w/ tariffs.
One thing about tariffs - if charged, they should be charged at point of entry, not point of sale. If it's the latter, it's just a case of screwing the US consumer, but if it's the former and the product doesn't sell, the company is forced to either consider ways of getting it made in the US, or not selling here in the first place
Those same students bid up the tuition costs for our own citizens. And aren't the leftist universities supposed to be non-profit? To heck with asian students. Send them home.
"Everyone who doesn't agree with me is a nazi!" Film at 11.
BeauHD. Worst editor since kdawson.
Or are you saying that Trump supporters are opposed to the free market?
I think Trump supporters (primarily though not exclusively working class rural white people) are absolutely terrified of a free market and a great many of them don't understand international trade at all. Sound bites are a lot easier than macroeconomics. Xenophobic sound bites that make foreigners scapegoats for their own failings and those of their country even more so.
Or maybe there coalitions that support candidates for a variety of reasons - and that not all the positions held by the supporters are in common?
Of course plenty of Trump supporters supported his lunacy for reasons other than protectionist sabre rattling. Some for reasons of racism, some for sexism, some for tribalistic loyalty to the republican party, some for pure amusement, some for unreasoning hatreds (KKK etc), some for misplaced fears ("2nd amendment people"), and plenty of other reasons besides. Most of them wrongheaded and ill considered but reasons all the same.
Therefore you agree that not all Republicans are for the free market.
Republicans have NEVER been for a free market. They just want a particular version of a capitalist market. Republicans have routinely been against "free" trade. If you recall during the most recent Bush administration they imposed steel tariffs which had the perverse outcome of reducing domestic steel production, increasing the cost of steel, and reducing employment in associated industries (like automakers).
By the NAFTA is not an example of free and open markets. Neither is TPP.
True but there is no such thing as a pure free market. In actual fact a pure free market would be a VERY bad thing. But those trade agreements DO reduce net trade barriers. Whether or not that is a net benefit to society is a separate question endemic to the particulars of the agreements in question.
Random inane post.
Keep saying they're poor. While they destroy our economy.
If China wants, they can replace the $X worth of goods we send them with local manufacturing. If we do the same, our prices double. Theirs won't. Guess who wins & who loses.
It's that simple.
There are two types of people in the world: Those who crave closure
Talking about Saudi Arabia's military is laughable - they showed it in 1991, when they were begging the US to send in troops to prevent Saddam from rolling in. They have a population of 30M, and are a 'power' only wrt their much weaker neighbors like Bahrein or Yemen. Forget the US - they are shit scared of Iran toppling their monarchy or pulling off a Shi'ite revolution which would end in Mecca & Medina under Shi'ite control. Also, the Arabs have not had a good fighting military since the 13th century, when Baghdad was leveled by the Mongols, except for those in Egypt under the Mamluqs, and then Saladin.
While I may be wrong on this assumption, I think that having to spend more money on their own people, and less money overall as a result of oil prices tanking has resulted in them having less cash to splurge either on Sunnite Jihadists in Syria, or in building mosques and spreading Islam overseas. Just wondering how many more years of oil do they have in their reserves. If either they run out, or we find an oil alternative that makes our current generation of cars obsolete, those Arab countries will end up as empty as countries like Rwanda or Burundi.
China has much more to lose in a trade-war than the USA does. Their economy is tightly bound to exports. China knows this and is bluffing.
I didn't vote for Trump, but I hope he pushes this issue, and encourages China to shift more to a consumer driven economy rather than an export economy. They won't do it without pressure, and Trump's bullheadedness may be just the recipe.
China will make a lot of noise and initial threats, but after a while they'll have to change or risk an economic hit.
Factory workers have protested and rioted in recent downturns. Thus, a downturn big enough could bring serious challenges to leadership. Tienanmen Square was merely a preview of what could happen.
The leaders are worried they'll be overthrown, Kadafi-style, if the population gets angry enough. Thus, they don't really want an actual trade-war, and that's why they are using threats and bluffs early on to try to prevent one. They saw how Kadafi got Shish-kebabed by his countrymen and know they could be next.
The thing is, they don't have to depend on exports. Grow a consumer base. It works. But exports have worked so well that Chinese leaders don't want to risk change. If Trump puts enough pressure on them, they may change to avert the even worse option: Shish-kebabing.
Table-ized A.I.
Keep saying they're poor. While they destroy our economy.
You're the one who wants to let them destroy our economy by putting our heads in the sand and not reacting. You CANNOT sustain a $365 billion trade deficit. It will destroy your economy.
If China wants, they can replace the $X worth of goods we send them with local manufacturing. If we do the same, our prices double. Theirs won't.
Guess what, even without a trade war, China IS replacing that $X of goods with local manufacturing, slowly but surely. That's why their manufacturing increases every year. They do more and more stuff. That's why our trade deficit with China grows every year. And they're transitioning from manufacturing cheap crap to more complex stuff.
Your "down side" to a trade war is already happening. I mean open your eyes. Check out this article http://www.forbes.com/sites/ke...
The American 1880s electric components manufacturer is turning to China. Even if that requires partnering with their nuclear scientists who may one day eat Westinghouse’s lunch not only in China, but in the U.S. and the rest of the world too.
[...]
In 2008-09 it signed a technology transfer agreement with the State Nuclear Power Technology Corp (SNPTC) to build the AP1000 and its Chinese spin-off called the CAP1400.
According to the World Nuclear Association, that tech agreement is what got them the contract to build the reactors in China, the latest and greatest in Westinghouse nuclear technology.
[...]
Jack Allen, then president of Westinghouse for Asia, told the Financial Times in 2010 that the company had no guarantees of its role in China after the four AP1000s were built with their Chinese partners. That was the year they handed over 75,000 documents to SNPTC, which might as well have been titled How to Build an American Nuclear Power Plant.
“We don’t know what will happen. We don’t expect to walk away after the completion of those units and not participate in (China’s) nuclear program,” Allen says. “But there are no guarantees.”
So please, tell me more about how we have a wonderful mutually beneficial trading arrangement with China currently, and only a loony trade war will ever make China produce the stuff that we currently produce. Please.
So, making it happen faster is the best option?
Or the stupidest option?
There are two types of people in the world: Those who crave closure
This is your opportunity to make good on one of your campaign promises, to curb China's abusive trade policies. Your response should be an immediate announcement of a trade war with China, as deliberate provocation. Yeah, we'll have to pay a bit more for phones that do everything but make phone calls, sure, and we'll lose access to their restrictive and heavily manipulated market, but their economy will go from being a house of cards to a smoking crater, and they'll never fuck with you again.
Plus, by doing this immediately, Obama gets the blame, as it happens on his shift, and the worse of the fallout will be settling by January 20, and you can take credit for the make up. Win/win.
There is something called a static and dynamic economy. Like take taxes. It's assumed that if you raise taxes, you'll raise revenue, and vice versa. But that only works initially. After being hit by taxes, people would adjust their economic behavior so that they get hit w/ less the next time around. Whether it is downsizing, offshoring, whatever
The same thing applies to trade. Let's say tariffs are increased. Initially, they would result in higher costs for those goods, and less sales. But the companies in question ain't gonna just eat those lower sales numbers. Also, they (not Apple itself maybe, but certainly the Samsungs and others) are likely to face competition from domestic manufacturers, who now have a window of opportunity. And these companies would also determine if they want to continue to participate in the US market. If yes, they would want to be competitive w/ those domestic manufacturers and have some operations in the US.
The other thing to note is that a lot of the labor intensive processes are now automated - whether in China or Taiwan or US. So that's not where there will be a cost differential. The cost differential will be in COLA, but that's where they have to see whether China COLA + Tariffs > US COLA or not. And there will be other factors that affect those ultimate prices.
Impossible to compete with China in the manufacturing sector because they can do it cheaper. The most obvious reasons are their labor force is paid far, FAR less than ours. Manipulating your currency to ensure you can undercut the world in manufacturing is another. Other factors like those silly environmental laws and making sure the products we're selling aren't tainted with lead, zinc and other crazy things isn't something they take very seriously.
That will eventually come back to bite them in the ass because if your own population doesn't have the funds to buy your product, then you're forced to sell them overseas. Which is pretty much the case here. Once someone in a major market gets tired of your bullshit and places tariffs on all imported goods from your country, which side is going to feel the greater sting ?
The buyers who want all their electronics based gear as cheaply as possible ?
Or the Chinese Economy whose entire EXISTENCE relies on exporting cheap materials and goods for the aforementioned gear ?
Yes, everything will become more expensive for a time, but China will quickly realize their economy will absolutely implode if they refuse to play ball. If you want to play on the World stage, you are required to play by the World's rules. If you don't like it, too bad. Sell your shit to your own citizens and stfu.
It's like a game of chicken. Just have to see who flinches first.
China's so full of shit about stopping production of the iPhone hurting us in a trade war. What they don't know is that Apple already has alternatives for producing the god damn iPhone and their other products - might not have capacity to fully meet global demand but without China, what is the demand for Apple products?
Simply put, the American People will actually benefit from China cutting trade relations with us as it means Walmart wont be importing the 50 percent Chinese crap that they sell and they'll have to get back to their "Made in America" products with a vengence. One thing it will do is the "Made in America" Products tend to be better built and they last longer instead of the chinese crap that fails two days after then fucking warranty expires and yes I'm quite willing to spend a bit more money for better products if I can find them as the only thing I buy from Walmart anymore is stuff like Toilet Paper, Napkins and pharmacy items and even then, I'm very selective due to the way they change packaging and quantities without changing the prices on stuff.
What China doesn't realize is that going Tit-For-Tat trade war is going to show the American People that China is not our god damn friend and has actively been seeking to destroy the American Production Capabilities by under cutting costs and such. Another issue is that Congress and President Elect "Trump" can revoke their "Most Favored" Nation Status, meaning that Apple and everyone who's using Chinese Manufacturing will pay lots more in taxes and such. Simply put, any trade war that China attempts to create will impact them far more then the United States simply because we have alternatives or we will do without and don't forget China, Trump has already indicated he's quite willing to use our Nukes so don't send troops and try to invade Japan or our other trade partners, you may regret it when Bejing becomes a glowing radiactive pit for the next 10,000 years.
Well, in the end, it will be countries other than the US and China that win.
To take your example, there would then be 2*$X in goods seeking buyers in other markets. This flood of supply would reduce the costs that Europe, etc. pay. So, even if the US "won", we would be worse off.
We have more leverage right now to do something positive than we will if we endure another 20-30 years of steady erosion and status quo because we're afraid of starting a trade war.
Realistically, we can impose tariffs on China and start recalibrating our manufacturing industries without triggering a trade war. It will probably have to include some things that we've been philosophically opposed to in the past, like state support of industry.... just like China has done for decades to give themselves a competitive advantage.
And, as was demonstrated last week, there are quite a few unreasonable people.
You know, for a group of people (the "unheard rural "majority""), it would be hard to come up with a better scenario for proving themselves to be exactly the uninformed morons they claim not to be, than to vote for that lying sack to shit Trump.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZZvT2r828QY
Perhaps they'll figure out they're on the wrong end if they haven't already.
Twitter supports and protects racists - by smearing their critics with the "Hate Speech" label.
Finally the new president will be condemned for his recklessness, ignorance and incompetence," the newspaper said in an editorial.
From his own Countrymen did not prevent his election.
So like everyone else you have to wait until we make America smart again.
Let me be the first to note, for the record, that this is eerily similar to the plot device that starts Star Wars I, The Phantom Menace. With slight modification:
"Turmoil has engulfed the [American] Republic. The [tariffs on] [Chinese goods] is in dispute. Hoping to resolve the matter with a [buildup of military bases on artificial islands in the South China Sea], the [Chinese have] stopped all shipping to [Apple and Walmart]. While the Congress of the Republic endlessly debates this alarming chain of events, the Supreme Chancellor [President Forrest Trump] has secretly dispatched two Knights [of the KKK], the guardians of peace and justice in the [Deep South], to settle the conflict...."
We are living, not in interesting times, but in the worst Start Wars movie ever made.
The trick is the US can and does feed itself. Very few populous nations can actually do that independently.
You'd need about 2 decades of dustbowl-level disaster for the US to actually need anything from any other nation.
Stop sales of cars and iPhones? The aftermath: tens of millions of Chinese are suddenly out of work, in big cities where they can cause trouble. Chinese currency flatlines. Financial panic, uprisings, revolution.
Go ahead, China.
Magically re-creating the entire lost supply chain for every single good China produces would probably be similar to what would happen if we were actually involved in a World War III style scenario with them. If the country had to, immediately and overnight, consider China a dead country in terms of production capacity, some pretty serious interventions on our side would have to happen. During World War II, the military basically requisitioned the entire production capacity of the country because they couldn't build equipment and supplies fast enough. Good luck getting a divided country to get behind government intervention and possible rationing of goods. You couldn't buy a car during most of the war years, let alone fill it up with gas on your schedule...all of GM, Ford and Chrysler's production was redirected to making tanks and Jeeps. Food, rubber and other products were also rationed because there was just no way to satisfy the war demand and it wasn't safe to ship things across the ocean.
Remember, we have almost no native capability to manufacture small, cheap items anymore...that went away ages ago. We make lots of cars and airplanes, but not too many (if any) consumer electronics or appliances. I would imagine it would take a lot of intervention and incentives to get rare earth metal mines reopened, steel mills reactivated, and goods manufacturing basically force-restarted. It would be a very interesting experiment if it worked, but I highly doubt everyone would sign on unless there was a direct threat to our existence. It would be very strange -- iPhones for America and all that, complete with the patriotic posters.
In short, Trump will provide the change that Obama promised but never delivered. Obama was a pretty face on the front of the good ship S.S. Status Quo.
"There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
Given that Iphones are made in china, and most us cars made in china are assembled there (In fact GM is importing Buick built in China to the US now), would this really be a case of cutting off the nose? The main effect would be that China would have to move workers to other jobs.
It's almost (but not completely) like assuming Theresa May's position by a BBC editorial.
The headline is totally wrong, it is rather "Chinese journalist threatens" or if you want "Chinese official", but still its obvious that a journalist is not even a high level official
Only if China accepts our tariffs. And they seem very unwilling to do so.
There are two types of people in the world: Those who crave closure
https://www.ivycoach.com/2016-ivy-league-admissions-statistics/
http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/01/04/the-most-chinese-schools-in-america-rankings-data-education-china-u/
That China will reduce the sales of iPhones, that are manufactured in... China
-- 73 de KG2V For the Children - RKBA! "You are what you do when it counts" - the Masso
there is a thriving urban middle class... heck
Price per Square Feet to Buy Apartment in City Centre
Shenzhen New York, NY
9,858.02 ¥ 8,505.93 ¥
(1,443.02 $) (1,245.10 $)
-13.72
Price per Square Feet to Buy Apartment Outside of Centre
Shenzhen New York, NY
5,118.91 ¥ 5,442.65 ¥
(749.31 $) (796.70 $)
+6.32 %
(source: Numbeo)
"Nimis exaltatus rex sedet in vertice - caveat ruinam!"
If they boycott iPhones it will only feed Trump's vindictive streak since he doesn't like Cook. They have to pick products that would hurt his cronies. (I'm sure they realize this; iPhones make for good headlines).
I wish I were writing this as a flippant comment but one of the few Trumpisms that isn't hyperbole ("I'll build a wall". "He's a Nazi") is that he bears and escalates petty grudges.
Not necessarily. Your scenario is only if it becomes a full-out trade war.
It doesn't have to become a wide scale trade war for protectionism to be a terrible and self defeating idea. Tariffs almost always cause more damage than they help. Put a tariff on steel and congratulations, you've just made every car, plane, and machine that uses steel more expensive and less competitive.
Trump can play chicken to scare them to make changes.
That is a very dangerous game to play with global consequences if the Chinese don't blink. It's especially stupid given that such negotiation tactics almost certainly are unnecessary and stand a high probability of backfiring.
Because they depend on exports far more than we do, a game of trade chicken is riskier to them.
And we depend on imports more than they do. They hold a sizeable amount of our debt which is a danger to both China and the US. Any trade war would hurt both sides and it's not an exaggeration to say that we have more to lose than they do. We're the ones with the higher than average incomes. We're the ones who are living on borrowed money. Yes any trade war would hurt China too but like any knife fight we wouldn't come out unbloodied.
Let's give it a try rather than live with the status quo.
Trying something that is clearly dangerous and almost certainly counterproductive just to disrupt the status quo is idiotic. Different just for the sake of different isn't a sane plan. That's what people do when they don't know what the fuck they are doing.
The cards are on our side. It's an area where Trump's brashness may work to our favor.
That's simply not true. What we have is something of a standoff with both sides able to hurt the other rather badly. Trump's arrogant demeanor is FAR more likely to backfire than it is to help.
Looks like the communist came up with a new weapon: A rapid-fire footgun.
Lets compare both countries and the effect this trade war may have:
At stake for the USA: the low prices of electronic gadgets. Yeah Im sure there will be gallons of hipster tears if the Macs get higher prices
At stake for China: Absolutely everything! No more sales to the US (you dont actually believe that the US will not retaliate if the communists try something funny?), means that suddenly they have millions and millions of unemployed people. People who tend to riot. In fact with anything less than a double-digit growth per year China is already struggling to place all the university graduates into the workforce, not to mention the uneducated country side population migrating after the simple manufacturing jobs. Right now this growth is at 6.5%. And their idea of replacing US made goods with European ones is just brilliant. As if most of the NATO states would not follow the same sanctions the US imposes... Just like theiy did with Iran.
So now we have China in deep shit, and the US or rather the US companies have every reason to get back manufacturing to the US, probably helped by subsidisies from senators beating each other up to get the factories built in their state to claim the job growth for their reelection.
Now some may believe that the USA has no manufacturing capacities anymore, this is plain and simple wrong. It is still number 3 worldwide in gross manufacturing capacity. Even if the specific plants to build electronic gadgets may not exist anymore, they can be quickly rebuilt or refurbished.
I bet that in 3 years tops, assuming the right conditions, 80% of the manufactuing jobs are back in the USA and probably permanently too.
This is a situation that would fuck China harder than if the Opium wars were fought by imperial Japanese soldiers.
China is a currency manipulator.
So is the USA. Or hadn't you heard about quantitative easing, also known as "printing money".
I rather thought it was elitism and looking down on the other side that got him elected.
I find the term "elitism" perplexing. So we are supposed to celebrate ignorance and stupidity rather than pointing out dumb ideas and insisting on intelligent and informed discourse?
Robots have the potential to be 1000's of times more productive and cost 1000's of times less than human laborers. In the race to the bottom, a country which relies on cheap human labor is doomed to fail.
Fuck you coward!
Then don't buy our shit.
...and determine nothing of value was lost!
You claim he had nearly a blank check to do what he wanted, YET claim he had to use an "illegal trick" to pass ACA
That's pretty stupid, when you think about what you are saying and what the original point was.
Basically Obama had a filibuster proof majority for two years. But the ACA was SO BAD that even party loyalty could not pass it and they had to use tricks to pass it without anyone getting to read it...
Surviving the Great Recession was priority of that time
Right, because we had to make room for an even greater one!
"There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
Really? Food is the answer to everyone's livelihood?
There are two types of people in the world: Those who crave closure
Doubt he will do any of this. It's just posturing so his followers will think he tried, when he didn't, and never had any intention of doing so.
-- Tigger warning: This post may contain tiggers! --
1) China manufactures for the whole planet not just the USA. China and the EU are both close to the size of the US economy. Not that China wouldn't be hurt if 1/3 of their customers disappeared; but at least 2/3 of their business is not to the USA. (Obviously, ripple effects would cause a global depression.) China can handle millions of their own starving if they want to do so. It's a long time one party authoritarian system over there. The US is more fragile and volatile.
2) Capital will always invest in NEWER factories which cost more upfront when they move factories to the USA. This means MORE automation and far less jobs. On top of that, due to the higher labor costs in the USA there will be more incentive to invest more heavily in automation. Germany isn't forcing corporations to in-source but some are and they are going nearly 100% automation when they do. The result of making manufacturing come back to the USA is going to be growth and advancement in automation and the progress that accelerates will reduce jobs across the board.
Democracy Now! - uncensored, anti-establishment news
I'm old enough to remember that we stopped having trade wars because the only winners were the bankruptcy lawyers and the people who could afford to buy foreclosed properties.
who stole the world's gold reserves during the Nixon years, and has since refused to return them. The biggest thief in the world, is the U.S. government, period.
alien Simple Definition of alien : not familiar or like other things you have known : different from what you are used to : from another country : too different from something to be acceptable or suitable
According to the law and Webster Dictionary, they are Illegal aliens, so stop trying to make them something they are not.
Besides it just seems odd to call them Undocumented Immigrant votes. It almost seems that they are allowed to vote but are not documented. Oh wait that is what they want!!!! Stupid me, for calling a book a book, a dog a dog, a pig a pig, etc.....
It is much easier to associate them with the fact that they are NOT in the US legally thus illegal and alien (from another country).
You have no idea do you.
Overseas students bring in significant income to the schools who host these students.
Worse, you have no idea how complex international trade is. Worse you have this over blown sense of what the US is.
To the world, you are ONE country amount the hundreds, you are 4% of the worlds population, and you are 20% of the words trade.
Growth in consumer demand is NOT in the USA, the US is fairly much a saturated market, consumer growth is is Asia the market you want to go into a trade war with.
Any trade war with China will also have dramatic effects on every other country on earth, and could even trigger a global depression. That will NOT endear the US with anyone.
China will soon become the biggest market in the world, the EU (if they fix brexit ) would soon have been 2nd . In another 100 years India will be bigger, so will Indonesia and Brazil.
And to be blunt, the rest of the world is sick and tired of the US throwing its weight around.
Peak USA has been and gone, now you are becoming like the ageing sports star who has to cheat, play dirty to try and maintain relevance and keep living the past glory, unable to see the rapid tarnishing of the image.
Build your walls, become isolationist, the rest of the world (the 96%) will do it tough for a few years but it will carry on, it will get stronger and it may not want the US back.
Did they miss the part about there being a huge trade deficit in their favor? That basically means that in any kind of real trade war they'll automatically be on the losing end. This is nothing more than preemptive grandstanding and a skilled negotiator like Trump sees it for what it is. He will aim to narrow or eliminate the trade deficit, which is what we should have been aiming for all along.
Its not the students, it the MONEY they bring in
Do you want 100 students @$5000 or 100 Students at $50,000 , because it makes a 4.5 Million dollar difference in your budget, the same budget that pays staff, pays for buildings, pays for library books, pays for sports equipment.
Re-read my post. There are no illegal alien VOTES. They cannot vote. They did not vote. Any claim to the contrary is just right-wing delerium. First case of voter fraud this year was a woman who tried to vote Trump twice.
One word: Brexit. UK was 25% of GDP of EU. Germany is 66.6%. Greece? Negative some number. EU is a fragment of what it ever was.
I think something like this only happens because people still cannot understand how much of their own stuff China manufactures.
I stlil see in threads like this a whole lot of racism and ignorance tied to a complete misunderstanding of the role China plays in the international market.
The relationship between US and China is of extreme dependancy, and imposing tariffs will only make both sides crash. This isn't a joke.
Most people who dismiss the importance of this trade think about iPhones, cheap badly made clones, about big finished products like cars, and about stuff that they might not be so dependant of, without realizing the hole is much deeper and wider than they might think.
It's not only about finished products - it's about industrial tools, specialized technology, parts of all sorts, components, stuff that you'll find inside almost everything your life depends on. Even for stuff that has the made in USA label, if it's an electronic part, this mostly means it was assembled in the US. Chances are, there are still components in there that were made in China. There is an estabilished limit of how much of the product was actually completely made in the country stated, and it's not 100%. Even worse, China holds dominance of a whole bunch of raw materials. There is no sector of the economy that will be left intact if a wide ranging tariff is imposed. When chinese labor isn't directly involved with production of whatever you are thinking about, it indirectly is - apart perhaps from few raw materials and base stuff. Even for basic things like food production it's likely that some machine with parts made in China is involved in the process. People have no clue.
If US were to completely cease commercial relationships with China, China would end up broken, no questions about it. The country would have to cut down the vast majority of production, re-route it to European, Latin american and Asian countries, and do a whole lot of restructuring. Companies would relocate, tons of lives and jobs would be lost, it'd be a huge step back. They'd be losing their biggest clients by far, and intellectual owners of several products made there. It could cause the country to turn into something closer to Africa, at least vast regions of it with tiny pockets of modern civilization.
But the US would find itself back into the middle ages. US would have to go after relationships with other cheap(er) labor countries... Malaysia, Vietnam, South Africa, Brazil, South Korea, India and whatnot. And even if they could keep relationships with all these countries - since a whole lot of them are also dependant on China, it would never get near to closing the gap of current supply and demand chain. Not even if current lawyers, doctors, celebrities, CEOs and whatnot started working in factory floors, which is a bit unlikely.
There is a reason why China is basically the factory of the world, and this has to do with cheap labor, but specially about manufacturing capacity. Lots of people don't seem to realize this, but a whole ton of advancements in tech on all areas are also being developed in China these days.
I don't know what Trump will really do regarding China, but it might be a good lesson for people who undererstimate China's role in the worldwide market. Nowadays, it's as important if not way more important than the US. I imagine that tons of big companies in the world would first severe ties with US rather than China, given the choice... because no company would want that. But you'd have to think about it... is it more work to find places to build your stuff relatively cheap and with a huge output capacity, or to find people willing to buy it?
It's a harsh reality no one wants to hear or admit. Those horrible conditions we had back in the industrial revolution never really went away. Welfare, cushy jobs, family planning, and all that sort of stuff happened because all the nasty parts of the industrial revolution era were simply relocated overseas. The reason why people have access to so ma
If the iphone is made in China isn't really an in export for china? So they need to say is no more exports to the US.
Trump woult have two Victories.. #1 limit Chinese Imports, #2 Increase Wireless Security.
Many phones made in China have a back door accessible via the modem. A simple hack gets you root.
This was implemented purposely.
Just more silly scare mongering from Trump haters. Trump will not impose a 45% tariff, and China will not stop all trade with the US.
And there will be no 30 foot wall, and Trump's tax plan won't happen either.
Just more pointless posturing.
How does the iPhone hurt the US the most? It's not like the outlandish spaceship building in Cupertino can't be repurposed. The Simon Brothers could make it into a great space-themed megamall.
Net worth isn't something that shows up on tax return...and someone had the nerve to mod me troll? geez.
Well, hey! Yours was one of the three insightful-moderated comments that actually struck me as slightly insightful. You hit a couple of key issues. Not deeply, but brevity is supposed to be wit's soul, eh?
None of the funny ones were funny. Didn't waste the time with informative or interesting, though I did some browser-level searches for the key terms related to what I would regard as actual insight on this issue. Came up completely dry. And of course the entire article and discussion have effectively timed out now, so making any comment is moot, eh?
What I was looking for was some discussion of how the international force vectors have been changed by this election. Seems obvious that Russia's international leverage will be greatly increased, and Iran benefits, too. If Trump delivers on a small fraction of his promises, then America's influence will drastically decrease, but I suppose we can hope he's just lying, as usual.
That sets the stage for considering China's response to the election. Insofar as the Chinese have any international ambitions (and I am certain they do), then their economic ties to America are now a disadvantage. They would much prefer to redirect their focus towards growing economies and perhaps even do what they can to push America into recession.
But what about the economic damage to China? If you think about it for a second, you'll realize it is NO problem now. They'll just blame Trump for any and all problems and gladly stoke the nationalistic fires within China. The better not to buy your inferior American goods.
Time to rethink your investment strategies. Obviously makers of wife beater t-shirts, anti-anxiety meds, and for-profit prisons should be hot stocks. However the big word is not "plastics". How can I get in on the ground floor of big poverty?
Will the Chinese even bother to compete in those areas? Maybe, but I bet they demand hard cash, and they probably won't even accept dollars.
Freedom = (Meaningful - Coerced) Choice != (Speech | Beer^2), and sad sock puppets' bad mods avail them naught.
How much do those apartments rent for?
The one in NYC will more or less pay the mortgage with the rent, in China no chance. Chinese real estate is in as bad a bubble as Chinese stocks.
John McAfee 'It was like that time I hired that Bangkok prostitute; to do my taxes, while I fucked my accountant'
Tariffs aren't something you accept or not. I suppose they could abandon the market.
John McAfee 'It was like that time I hired that Bangkok prostitute; to do my taxes, while I fucked my accountant'
In CA they can register to vote with a utility bill.
At least 3 million voted in CA alone. To say nothing of the dead vote.
John McAfee 'It was like that time I hired that Bangkok prostitute; to do my taxes, while I fucked my accountant'
Most members of the Republican party are not really Republicans. In fact we gave them their own name "RHINO" quite a while back because the leftist tactic of stacking both sides of the deck was pretty obvious.
-The wise argue that there are few absolutes, the fool argues that there are no probabilities.
"They are poor remember?"
I recently saw a graph of median income over time by country. The only major noticeable shift over time among all the data was that China's median incomes are moving rapidly upwards.
When it comes to population, quantity != quality. If US wanted to have a billion people, we'd massively subsidize child related stuff with taxes on everyone... (e.g. free gov provided rent & food for first 4 year's of child's life, free kindergarden after that, free school, college, etc., after that). Before you know it, we'll have a billion people... within maybe a decade or two.
Families wouldn't be limited to how many kids they can afford---and many families will choose to have a kid every 3-4 years...
The problem is that this taxes everyone---and US for the most part realizes that we'd rather have less people having a higher standard of living than lots of people with majority mostly supporting (via taxes, etc.) the reproduction activity...
So a large population isn't a benefit... it's often a big curse... (what will china do with 500 million senior citizens in a few years?)
At least 3 million voted in CA alone. To say nothing of the dead vote.
Citation badly needed.
It's basically the same thing they did with the high speed trains. The Chinese bought a couple of each design and got licenses to manufacture all them in China. Then they started making their own versions with increasingly more Chinese content until they don't need to the licenses any longer. The Chinese bought basically all nuclear reactor designs that mattered and built them in China (Canadian, Russian, French, American, etc).
tl:dr = American manufacturing never left, it just leveled up. Allocate your skill-points accordingly.
I am a nerd, not an economist. I'm gonna get modded into the dark-side for this but I gotta speak-up. I have no idea WTF I'm talking about in terms of arcane economics.... BUT..... I do a *lot* of business in *GASP* American manufacturing plants (The mythical American places that just about everybody in this thread claims not to exist anymore) I build and maintain *GASP* Automated manufacturing and robotic tools! Shit the bed, automation and manufacturing took my job and gave me better one! Hows that for way oil in your eye!?
From where I stand, the price of those $250.00 jeans and $1000 handbags looks like it has very little to do with where or how they are manufactured, and very much to do with WHAT WE ARE WILLING TO PAY FOR THEM. Look no further than your local second hand store for the REAL VALUE of products VS corporate PERCEIVED VALUE at the mall. High priced consumer goods has not brought us to our knees yet. In fact, we don't even take the stickers off our baseball caps anymore, presumably so everybody KNOWS we paid way to much for em. IKNOWRIGHT?
To put it another way-
If Nike needs to pay a little extra tariff money to move those products back into the US from China, I don't see all the Nike fans suddenly switching to made-in-the-USA workboots over another 20%-50% increase in cost, and if they do, Nike can certainly afford to take the price down in order to compete. Or maybe, just maybe, avoid the fees all together and have the American workforce build and maintain an automated factory for it. (which I think is the point)
I bet Facebook could employ the entire city of Detroit for years retrofitting and automating some of those sprawling factories to produce their rift gizmo, and still come out of it with crazy profit. Maybe not record bonuses for the suits, but well into the black. See where I'm going with this?
American manufacturing today means CNC machines, automation, and highly staffed quality departments. More skilled labor for sure, I see grey-hairs working those machines every day. Those guys can't operate a windows box to save their lives, but they can make those robots dance to any tune they please. Plenty of blue-collar labor available as well. Jobs still need raw stock to be cut, Floors need sweeping, product needs to be packaged, shipped and received. Sales positions need to be filled, the list goes on and on. Today is the future, if you want to be employed, you will have to learn SOMETHING. If all you can do is stand on the line and mindlessly assemble things, McDonalds is always hiring. Manufacturing is alive and well in the US, we just don't make the shiny plastic neatoes and bullshit our politicians and upper class keep buying their kids at the mall.
When my robot replaces your manufacturing job, or service job, or tech job, leverage your skills in another department, specialize, or go to trade school and learn to repair robots. There is PLENTY OF WORK, but only if your not smoking weed all day, or spending it bitching about social injustice on the net, but instead choose to take your job seriously, and actually show up.
I know, I sound like my father, and yes, he's an asshole. He is also an employed metal worker in the manufacturing sector who hates computers, and has been for 30+ years.
You are being ripped off every second of every day, so that advertisers can help rip you off even more tomorrow.
Haha. You think being a real estate developer and being president are the same thing.
"It's that simple."
For some reason I doubt it.
Let's see how long it'll take /. commenters to figure out econ 101: Restrictions in trade will hurt both parties.
Given the current skill levels in the workforce, and available automation technology, the idea that you could bring back the kind of manufacturing jobs that went away in the eighties, doesn't even pass the laugh test.
We are already (for 25 or so years) in a treading war with (mainland,communist) China, BUT only one side has been fighting the war. They devalue their currency and keep their prices artificially low. They wipe out entire industries and sectors of the US economy.
We fight back and it means war ? Just remember if you owe the bank $100,000 , the bank owns you. If you owe the bank $100,000,000,000.00, you own the bank.
Idiot, no one said they won't build stuff like the iPhones, they just won't import them from the USA.
Even the US multinationals will still get their stuff built there, maybe not for the 4% of the population that lives in the USA, but they will for the 96% who live in the real world.
The impact on china will be much less than you think.
For a start the phones for the US, they will STILL have parts from China, the phones will just be assembled in Taiwan or Brazil, it may be the packaging, the ink used on the boxes, something will still be made in China and those jobs will STILL not come back to the USA. And the USA is NOT China's sole customer, they trade world wide.
A trade war will increase the price for consumers, reduce exports from the US to China, and basically leave the USA worse off. The world does NOT revolve around the US and the US has much more to loose than China.
Asia is working on their own trading bloc which accounts for 60% of the worlds population and Asia is growing much faster than Africa or South America.
China will soon be the worlds biggest economy and the EU may become 2nd biggest within the next 10 years or so. The rest of the world will have far more interest in trading with China and the EU than with the US.
The US is however fully entitled to put its head where the sun don't shine, keep chanting USA USA USA while shooting its self in the foot.
If our prices double but the money stays in our economy, it isn't simply a case of prices doubling.
Gadget makers might have to do something otherthan just make gadgets.
Until you remember that the US is only one country China trades with.
China can buy the high priced cars etc from Japan, the US can't replace the low profit high volume things from China as easily.
And China will STILL manufacture all the items for US companies that are destined for other countries.
If the US stops 100% of trade with China, the US looses 100% of the exports to China, China looses 40% of the business it did with US companies because the rest has gone to the EU, Canada, Africa, Australia etc etc, and the 40% they miss out on gets made in Taiwan, Singapore etc and China still supplies components that get assembled in these countries.
The US also looses access to cheap rare earth materials needed for US manufactured goods like planes.
The EU will do well out of this, China will not suffer much and the US entered another recession. The US has MORE to loose than China.
Yup. Plus, they can build infrastructure overnight while we will spend 15 years getting back onto a manufacturing footing before the first small-town 'merican sees their first job return to the states.
It's just not going to happen.
But don't worry, all of the billionaires will still do just fine.
CAPTCHA: chicken
That was 20 years ago. Try to understand how technology has changed combat since then - you don't have any fucking idea.
Demonizing the best US trading partner on whom the US relies for everything that makes it function on a daily basis, and destroying all the foundations of America to cozy up to a Russian dictator.
The idiots around us will continue to underestimate China (and everyone, frankly)
Thats pretty good typing with a blindfold over your eyes. What software do you use?
Still waiting for actual information instead of claims pulled directly out of ass.......
Changes in technology do squat to address a country's shortcomings, if they are not capable of something themselves. If you think they've progressed much since then, look at them today. They sure looked tough in sending troops into Bahrein, and are now knee deep in a civil war in Yemen, but at the same time, they are shaking in their boots at the ascendency of Iran, which has been encouraging a Shia insurrection in the south of their country. To answer the GP AC, if the US needed to go to war w/ Saudi Arabia, then they'd just have to target a few cities - Riyadh, Dhahran, Jeddah, Mecca and Medina. Of course, if they go in the stupid way Bush went into Iraq - trying to win hearts & minds, it would be a quagmire. But if they go in w/ just the objective of pulverizing them, that would happen very easily
Well said! Mod up!
I love it when people say we can't manufacture anything anymore. Hello, Tesla Gigafactory? You know - what will be the largest electronics factory in the entire world?
But we can't build anything new anymore. Riiight. There is nothing China makes that we can't make. The 'machine that builds the machine' is going to change the balance of manufacturing power in the world.
Ever seen the state of the environment in China? Think Trump gives a damn about that here?
My beliefs do not require that you agree with them.
Does it seem to anyone else like, Clinton didn't like the Russians and Trump doesn't like the Chinese. Vote for Clinton and you have a war with the Russians. Vote for Trump and you have a war with the Chinese.
Now lots of Trump supporters hinted or outright spoke of war with the Russians as being both literal and nuclear. I discounted that at the time and I still feel pretty confident such a situation was never realistic. Lots of tension and confrontations though, yes, that was realistic. Trade war with the Chinese seems a lot more likely, though thank goodness no one is talking about actual war with armies and such.
Shouldn't our goal be to avoid war? I'm not a dreamy eyed optimist either, sometimes war chooses you, and sometimes you choose war for good reasons. However I have a standing policy, that if you get involved in war, you better be sure about your reasons and your ability to win. There have been recent wars where this judgement was somewhat lacking and the war did not turn out so well (Vietnam, Iraq, etc.).
So - China - your plan is to hold 2 industries at gun point and expect that to sway us over the loss of the entire US Manufacturing base? Take a long walk off a short pier.
Most of China's growth has come directly off the backs of US manufacturers and the US labor force. And other countries are now following suit! The world is using our economy to lift themselves up from the mud and filth. That's not a bad thing, until you realize just how many people our economy must support! We will go belly up before we lift the world out of the muck! China, and now other low-labor-cost nations, don't want to see the gravy train end! Just FYI - this is China's plan to rape the US people since the 1990s - and they've had this cash machine running day and night for decades: 1. Use Chinese low-cost labor to under-cut US production prices. 2. No tariffs = direct to consumer prices 3. Flood US Markets with low-cost goods that US Manufacturers can not compete against (because Chinese laborers work at a rate of $10 US per day, well below the US minimum wage - so - by US law - American manufacturers can not compete with Chinese imported products). 4. US Manufacturers go out of business because they can not compete 5. Collect and Export cash from US sales to China, draining cash from manufacturer profit and manufacturer expenses (loss of jobs) - which directly translates into a loss of government taxes, employee income taxes, and corporate income taxes, weakening the US government. The US people are trading more than 60% taxable income for 6% sales tax income. 7. China taxes and uses that incoming cash to invest in: * Chinese growth to make China more competitive - which drops price more - which cements export processes - which floods more US industries with Chinese goods - which forces more US companies out of business - starting the cycle all over again. * Loan money back to the US to buy up chunks of the US at a discount * influence elections to guide US laws and policies in favor of maintaining the gravy train. Wake up, folks! This is the new world war. The US taught the world how you win - which is through manufacturing strength. He who makes the goods, has the cash. He who has the cash, can afford the biggest sticks to whack people with. We are at war! And we finally have someone who will negotiate fair trade!
LEt me give you a hint, the world is not only USA and China. There is another 4.5 Billion people out there not on those countries.
Yes, the U.S. has a trade deficit with China, but that doesn’t mean it doesn’t sell a lot of goods there. China is the U.S.’s third largest export market, after Canada and Mexico. About a fifth of the exports to China (roughly $25B) are agricultural in nature (~$15B in soybeans alone). Raw materials (copper, aluminum, coal, etc.) account for around $7B of exports to China.
The rural white vote (i.e. farmers, miners, etc.) is credited with propelling Donald Trump into office. If he should decide to go ahead with this trade war, he’s going to see his support collapse when crops stand rotting in the field and mines are closed. And, it may not just be his support that collapses. The Democrats could regain the House and Senate. McConnel and Ryan would see Trump impeached before they allow that to happen.
I suspect he’ll be walking back his tough talk on this subject – and most of his campaign promises, for that matter – once the complexities of the real world start to penetrate his ego.
If Trump starts a Trade war, China will in fact reciprocate.
Duh.
A thousand pounds of wood moving at 300 feet per minute. Don't get in the way.
From the aritlce: "A batch of Boeing orders will be replaced by Airbus. US auto and iPhone sales in China will suffer a setback, and US soybean and maize imports will be halted. China can also limit the number of Chinese students studying in the US." If limiting the number of students studying in the US is on their threat list then the list must represent the entirety of their leverage against the USA because that's a pretty insignificant threat to include.
Go tell a University that. That's only one thing, but Universities charge top dollar for foreign students. P Anyhow, no, China and America have areal co-dependent thing going on that believe it or not, is helpful to both countries. Just see what happens if China demands the debt it is holding be paid back. They need us badly, and we need them badly.
The shepherds did so well protecting the flock that the sheep no longer believed that wolves existed.
Debt is only an asset if you can collect it. There's no debt collector out there big enough to muscle up on the USA at the moment, so who is China going to call? And if they ruin our credit rating, what's that do to theirs? Nothing positive.
This is of course a hypothetical situation, but if the US were to deploy sanctions against China, China could call the debt they hold. If the US refuses to pay it, We've defaulted, and every other country that holds US debt will have a big problem with us. China holds a bit over a trillion, and ther countries bring the total foreign owned debt to around 4 trillion.
This is what the boys down at the shop call an "oh shit" situation.
This is what we get when we demand one sentence solutions to War and Peace length issues.
The shepherds did so well protecting the flock that the sheep no longer believed that wolves existed.
But the best schools are already heavily oversubscribed so they wont be left wanting for students if China stops sending theirs.
Just not foreign students, who pay by far the highest prices. By far.
It's like replacing students who pay 10 thousand a semester with students that pay 2 thousand a semester.
Oh wait. The numbers might be off, but that's exactly the situation.
The shepherds did so well protecting the flock that the sheep no longer believed that wolves existed.
"The USA is hundreds of years old (since it was discovered). China is thousands of years old.
I don't think this argument holds up."
That is a real loser way to start a war. Better stay home...
The one possible flaw in your argument, is your assumption that China covets Dollars over Yuan. If anything negative happens to the USD, or positively to the Yuan - I don't think the 'deal' we have with China is going to carry on much longer, in any form.
The Trade War is just a natural symptom of the Currency War.
You totally missed the point.
Yes, food is the answer to "livelihood" as in "how you live" -- you need to eat to live.
In an all out global trade war, the countries that can feed themselves have a tremendous advantage over those that cannot feed themselves. I'm not sure how significant that would be for China... I believe they produce almost all of their rice for instance. I remember an NPR article a few years back that China imported a huge amount of soybean from the US and from Brazil, but I don't know how important that is as a dietary staple.
It could certainly be a factor in coercing other countries to join our side in a trade war. China may not be very dependent on food imports (I really don't know) but they aren't a huge food exporter either. The US is. That means there are some countries out there that actually need trade with the US to live. That means they don't have a choice about who to side with in a trade war.
Of course when a trade war starts getting into starvation territory, it would probably turn into real war pretty fast so I dunno how important it all is.
Oh no, the party-controlled media is telling us that it'd be a stupid idea.
I suppose we should really do the opposite if that's the case.
I think that will be in favor of Quality !!! Who Dares or Will Try to Buy a DURACELL Battery Made in China ... or a MICHELIN Tire Made in China
Choose between a BOEING Made in USA or AirBus Made in Europe and a YuTong Made in China
For the same price ... the Choice is obvious even for last stupid
Raenex, I'm posting this as a reply to your old post so that you'll probably be the only person to see it.
I figure APK is an attention whore, and a troll. He actually stalks me a bit, and I competely ignore him, pretending I've filtered his posts with Tampermonkey, so I don't even see him taking all kinds of shit to me. Today I decided to have some fun.
I'm thinking that since he's an attention whore who has a thing for me, two things that would really bug him would be if people a) forgot he's even around anymore, and b) couldn't even remember his name.
Thus "that guy who used to post years ago, ABC or whatever", that should troll his dumb ass pretty good. :)