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Simulation Of An Asteroid Impact In The Year 2880
JoeRobe writes "Researchers at UCSC have simulated a possible outcome of an impact by asteroid 1950DA when it passes near us in the year 2880. Note that there is a 0.3% chance of impact during that encounter. In the event that it impacts in the Atlantic, they predict that the '60,000 megaton blast' would create 400 foot waves along the east coast. In addition to an assessment of the danger, their studies point out the resulting geologic features that we should be looking for now, which would indicate where and when such impacts have occured in the past."
I believe that nuclear war will have killed us all by then. Don't worry about the comet.
Our grand-grand-grand-children might worry about it, but we'll be dead by then
their studies point out the resulting geologic features that we should be looking for now, which would indicate where and when such impacts have occured in the past.
Craters?
I'm glad that this date is > 24xx. "Asteroid may hit 2330" might have been a somewhat more alarming headline - I was kinda hoping to see tomorrow...
Never, ever lose a file again. Ever.
And thus I do not care.
I have been pwned because my
> Note that there is a 0.3% chance of impact during that encounter.
Is that 0.3% chance mostly from the inaccuracy of the devices that measure the velocity of the object, inaccuracy of the prediction models, or genuine random events (like uh being affected by random solar wind variations, or something ).
...chicken_little.exe
Cheers!
E
http://eugeneciurana.com | http://ciurana.eu
Well given the human race's ingenuity, if in the next 800 hundred years or so we haven't worked out a way to prevent this, we probably deserve extinction for being idle.
Maybe we could all spend a little less on improving ways to kill each other, and a little more on planning our survival?
someone look at it and tell us if it is any different from the deep impact flick.
Siggy Say, Siggy Do
May 27, 2003
Contact: Tim Stephens (831) 459-2495; stephens@ucsc.edu
Massive tsunami sweeps Atlantic Coast in asteroid impact scenario for March 16, 2880
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
We're all fscked
it is only after a long journey that you know the strength of the horse.
Massive tsunami sweeps Atlantic Coast in asteroid impact scenario for March 16, 2880
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
SANTA CRUZ, CA--If an asteroid crashes into the Earth, it is likely to splash down somewhere in the oceans that cover 70 percent of the planet's surface. Huge tsunami waves, spreading out from the impact site like the ripples from a rock tossed into a pond, would inundate heavily populated coastal areas. A computer simulation of an asteroid impact tsunami developed by scientists at the University of California, Santa Cruz, shows waves as high as 400 feet sweeping onto the Atlantic Coast of the United States.
The researchers based their simulation on a real asteroid known to be on course for a close encounter with Earth eight centuries from now. Steven Ward, a researcher at the Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics at UCSC, and Erik Asphaug, an associate professor of Earth sciences, report their findings in the June issue of the Geophysical Journal International.
March 16, 2880, is the day the asteroid known as 1950 DA, a huge rock two-thirds of a mile in diameter, is due to swing so close to Earth it could slam into the Atlantic Ocean at 38,000 miles per hour. The probability of a direct hit is pretty small, but over the long timescales of Earth's history, asteroids this size and larger have periodically hammered the planet, sometimes with calamitous effects. The so-called K/T impact, for example, ended the age of the dinosaurs 65 million years ago.
"From a geologic perspective, events like this have happened many times in the past. Asteroids the size of 1950 DA have probably struck the Earth about 600 times since the age of the dinosaurs," Ward said.
Ward and Asphaug's study is part of a general effort to conduct a rational assessment of asteroid impact hazards. Asphaug, who organized a NASA-sponsored scientific workshop on asteroids last year, noted that asteroid risks are interesting because the probabilities are so small while the potential consequences are enormous. Furthermore, the laws of orbital mechanics make it possible for scientists to predict an impact if they are able to detect the asteroid in advance.
"It's like knowing the exact time when Mount Shasta will erupt," Asphaug said. "The way to deal with any natural hazard is to improve our knowledge base, so we can turn the kind of human fear that gets played on in the movies into something that we have a handle on."
Although the probability of an impact from 1950 DA is only about 0.3 percent, it is the only asteroid yet detected that scientists cannot entirely dismiss as a threat. A team of scientists led by researchers at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory reported on the probability of 1950 DA crossing paths with the Earth in the April 5, 2002, issue of the journal Science.
"It's a low threat, actually a bit lower than the threat of being hit by an as-yet-undiscovered asteroid in the same size range over the same period of time, but it provided a good representative scenario for us to analyze," Asphaug said.
For the simulation, the researchers chose an impact site consistent with the orientation of the Earth at the time of the predicted encounter: in the Atlantic Ocean about 360 miles from the U.S. coast. Ward summarized the results as follows:
The 60,000-megaton blast of the impact vaporizes the asteroid and blows a cavity in the ocean 11 miles across and all the way down to the seafloor, which is about 3 miles deep at that point. The blast even excavates some of the seafloor. Water then rushes back in to fill the cavity, and a ring of waves spreads out in all directions. The impact creates tsunami waves of all frequencies and wavelengths, with a peak wavelength about the same as the diameter of the cavity. Because lower-frequency waves travel faster than waves with higher frequencies, the initial impulse spreads out into a series of waves.
"In the movies they show one big wave, but you actually end up with dozens of waves. The first ones to arrive are pr
Bush is on fire and its not good for my lungs.
"Until we detect all the big ones and can predict their orbits, we could be struck without warning," said Asphaug. "With the ongoing search campaigns, we'll probably be able to sound the 'all clear' by 2030 for 90 percent of the impacts that could trigger a global catastrophe."
Um, why is the goal to only find 90 percent of the asteroids that can kill us? Shouldn't they be trying to find all of them?
I can see it now. Eight centuries from now they'll be saying: "Gee, that astroid thing is coming up soon. Where did I put that computer simulation from the 21st century?" I mean seriously will computers even be around that far into the future?
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I have been pwned because my
Who wants to bet it doesn't turn out like they predict? I'll bet my house on it.
I love the smell of Karma in the morning
"In the event that it impacts in the Atlantic, they predict that the '60,000 megaton blast' would create 400 foot waves along the east coast."
Wondering what'd happen if it hit anywhere near Seattle!? heh... forgot, it's gonna be more than 700 years away. Can we have a simulation of that thing in Seattle right now? In a place which rhymes with Deadbund?
If you keep throwing chairs, one day you'll break windows....
It is a book by Niven and Pourelle(sp?), and it details such an event. The characters in the book thought it had a 1000 to 1 chance of missing too, but they were horribly wrong.
3 percent is pretty high considering its the extinction of a sentient race (humans) possible, or at least civilization.
I can just see my genetic decendants going "shit I wish my great *9 or 10 grandfathers generation had taken a little time out of their primitive lives to think about some kind of solution to this..." just before they get the big bam that causes 400 foot ocean swells to kill them in whatever the US is called at that time.
But who knows, end of civilization might not be so bad, but hey whats the percent chance of only that happening if it hits?
If you don't vote, you don't matter, so don't waste your time telling me your opinion
Anyone else looking for the classic CNN artist rendition of an astoroid impact that looks like the moon hitting the earth to go with this story?
And if I'm wrong, may we all be horribly crushed from above somehow
Our great^12 grandchildren are going to look back on news stories like this one and *laugh their feelers off*...
-- Terry
"...create 400 foot waves along the east coast."
Guess we better start in on building 401 foot sea-walls! Made out of Adamantium..
I sell out to The Man every day.
I am relieved.
LOL
I sell out to The Man every day.
Homes destroyed, their leader missing, pandemonium falling into utter madness.
Roads crumbled, storehouses plundered, the sky is literally falling.
You can really mess up an anthill when you're 10 years old.
We have wrecked the earth by then and will all be living on other planets in the solar system. Set your tivo's now cos presumably they will televise it.
Do not try to read the dupe, thats impossible. Instead, only try to realize the truth
What truth?
There is no dupe
...this UCSC computer simulation will be as high tech as a 2880 refrigerator magnet.
You guys really sure you want to put this out there? They are gonna LTAO...
A hUgE r0ck tWo-tHiRdS 0F @ MiL3 in DiAmEtEr
I see you're confident the USA won't have switched to metric by then.
But they'd be reading Slashdot even then? You're either being too optimistic or over-confident. Maybe both!
If you keep throwing chairs, one day you'll break windows....
General Burrito, the site's cyborg manager, will draw his last Neodimium gas breath listening to audio emails from Neptune yelling "DUPE!!! U R TEH SUX!!!".
Don't even think about it, you fscking Canadians.
Wh47 d1d j00 541, 31337 15n't t3h r0xor5 ne m0r3???
I'm glad i wont be living in Atlanta in the year 2880 - that one looks deadly.
Wasn't this one of the disater options in SimEarth? And it's so much easier, quicker, and cheaper to model it in SimEarth than those other computers...
I find it funny how people talk about these so called "asteroids" that might strike earth and cause massive destruction. The idea of "giant rocks flying around in space" is almost impossible the fathom to any educated christian scientist. I believe these "asteroids" are just liberal propaganda.
First of all, many people claim asteroids are what killed dinosaurs millions of years ago. This is impossible. God created in the earth in 6 days, not millions. It is entirely possible to assume then that dinosaurs and humans roamed the planet at the same time. At the time of the great flood (caused by God, not an asteroid!) the dinosaurs were too big to fit in the arc and that is why there are none today.
Any educated right-wing christian knows that God is the only one who will cause massive destruction to earth, not a "floating ball of rock from outer space". There is no way to predict God's actions, we must simply have faith and follow his word. No tsunami will sweep away the faithful.
Asteroids are simply the liberals way of trying to disprove God and attack the believes of educated right-wing christians! Do not accept this misinformation!
GoatPigSheep, the 3 most important food groups
There are many distinct ways that the asteroid could hit. I imagine that after you determine if, when, and where it impacts the Earth, the next most important thing to know to weigh the consequences would be at what angle and trajectory it hits at. I imagine it would be quite different if it hit at a 1/16 * Pi angle and streaked across the sea than it would be if it hit orthogonal ( right angle ) to the surface.
Also, I imagine the rotation of the asteroid could be a major factor, as well as its shape and composition.
Wh47 d1d j00 541, 31337 15n't t3h r0xor5 ne m0r3???
IMHO mankind has more to fear from viruses than tsunamis generated from wandering asteroids. I am afraid that something very tiny will wipe us out, not someting very big.
I am not a biologist, but I bet the threat is more than 0.3 percent that this could happen. This SARS outbreak has me thinking.
Harpo Tunnel Syndrome--my wrist feels funny.
Don't discount it.
You got a supercomputer???
It's NUCULAR war! Or NOCULAR. I'm not sure. Must remember to ask Clinton later today.
-- Let's go nucular!
... when I am 906...
Relax - when it hits it'll be no bigger than a Chihuahua's head.
Anything to stop the horror that is Adam Sandler. I'll pay any price.
But they'd be reading Slashdot even then?
They will, an when the news hits they will complain it's a dupe: "So what the asteroid will hit tomorrow, this is old news it was posted like 800 years ago, fscking slashdot dupes"
- We are the slashdot. Resistance is futile. Prepare to be moderated -
maybe howard stern and his renta girlfriend are next ?
...Tool record sales to really sky rocket. Just watch.
If you think
"...create 400 foot waves along the east coast."
at least the surfers will be happy before they bite the big one (the big one being the astroid).
and i agree, if we haven't figured out how to prevent that in 800 yrs, we have it coming.
someone mentioned viri as a more probably cause of death, but i doubt that. we all know virus survival depends on slow replication and prefers a low to non-existent mortality rate. a cataclysmic effect on our numbers perhaps, but i doubt very highly that a virus would manage to kill off the entire species in and of itself.
I dont think the world will make it that far, but just to be safe I have saved this page for my (grand)^8 son to read it.
Didn't they already do that in that Bruce Willis movie?
Analytic & algebraic topology of locally Euclidean meterization of infinitely differentiable Riemmanian manifold
"....'60,000 megaton blast' would create 400 foot waves along the east coast..."
Gosh, imagine a Beowolf cluster of those things!
Call it the Y2880 bug and charge top dollar for consultation fees to make sure that you're ready when it happens. When the dust blows over claim that you did such a good job that everything went smoothly.
Analytic & algebraic topology of locally Euclidean meterization of infinitely differentiable Riemmanian manifold
(No, I don't trust their estimate of getting hit 800 years from now)
Make the URL in your signature into a link and you'll get a lot more hits. Most people are too lazy to both paste it in AND remove the space that Slashcode inserts.
From a news bulletin at that time:
...... Strangely enough, the west coasts of both europe and africa seem to have been totally unaffected by the shockwave.
Bruce Willis will proabably be dead byt then. Who will save us?
We've always been at war with Eurasia.
In light of this report, Tom Ridge is adding Rubber Rafts, or some other floatation devices to the list of items everyone should have on hand. In addition to duct tape and plastic sheet.
Light travels faster than sound. This is why some people appear to be bright. Until you hear them speak.
Any chance that Ben Affleck and Bruice Willis were in the simulation either?
.smell my feet.
They will say nothing, however your grandchildrens children will say:
"Tsk Asteroids we assimilated them centuries ago"
By then there is a pretty good chance Las Palmas will have split in two and created a similar tidal wave first, so you Americans on the East Coast may well be drowned already when the asteroid arrives.
Donte Alistair Anderson Roberts - hi son!
Karma: Chameleon
Here you go
Debian 3.0 delayed again: developers blame difficulties of locating 800 year old 32 bit hardware to complete kernel 2.4 testing on. Claim current quantum computers 'not stable enough'.
And I suppose none of these angular approches would be negated by gravity? Try to glance a ball bearing off of a magnet and then talk to me about an asteriod with a 1/16 * Pi approach angle. A hit is at least 50% tractor-pull...
I doubt there are as many distinct/unique hit scenarios as some would propose. This isn't a weeked destruction derby, with hollowed out Cadillacs bouncing off each other in a mud pit.
Next, asteriods are not known for their 'rotation' as much as they are for tumbling. Neither of which matters much as the gases and kinetic energy involved in a strike will have their way long before actual contact of the two entities. Much like an avalanche, or tsunami, the bulk of the damage is from the shock and pressure wave(s) that arrive before the object/event itself. Contact is after the fact, and I don't think anyone is going to come out from under their desk saying "man! that was close! Good thing it only grazed us!" In this case, a miss really is as good as a hit.
I hear the deluxe edition of 'Deep Impact' features a brief scene on an Irish Boreen, 'Bejay - what's that?' sez one cap-wearing beckett character to another before both are engulfed by a 400 ft wave.
Crumbs - I know - but I'd buy it.
In case the wave sweeps away the earth on top, I'm gonna get buried in a carbon fibre coffin with built-in floatation devices, distress beacon, 2-way radio, snorkle and small tank of air... just in case I happen to wake up just at the wrong time.
Hah, comet schmomet.
Go permanent? In your dreams and my worst nightmares.
Grades are now the standard (default) here at UCSC. As far as I know, us older students are the only ones left who can choose which classes we want grades in.
Choosing the lesser of two evils is a choice for evil.
You mean that the North Sea would be so badly affected - there goes Norfolk! and forget the Thames barrier.
Pic
Fortunetly, the student body has changed into a normal university (with grades, frats, sororities and all!). The administrators on the other hand, are still at "Uncle Charlie's Summer Camp" and are too fucking hippy to reform the school's image.
The problem is long time accuracy. Perhaps the small blast will just move it right on target. Hey, it is even numerically challanging to prodict the orbit for 800 years with such a high resolution.
HI O WISE PRINCE. WHT TOOK U SO DAM LONG?
How far inland does one have to be to avoid a 400 foot wave?
The problem I see when ever any reads an article like this is the fact that they think, "oh well, that's so long away, I won't worry about it", when in reality the danger is real. Not nessicarly 1950 DA, but earth asteroid impact is a realistic happening, though pretty rare. Given our present technology, it takes months to prep a shuttle, and we don't really have much experence beyond sending probes to the outer / inner planets, let alone anything close to a game plan in the event that that a huge object is set to smack into the earth.
We spend much time monitoring volcanos, fault lines, things that have proven to cause a danger to man, yet we still don't have much in the way of program to reliably spot dangers from our own solar system, which while we haven't had a trully catastrophic event in human history, there is enough in the way of evidence that this sorta event does take place.
Even the smaller meteor strikes which are much more common place, though less destrictive then many forms of earth natural disaster, are much more common place, and near as I can tell, there pretty much isn't any program to detect and alert people as to the danger. The best thing we got are amature astrometers, who have been great, but are limited to earth bound telescopes.
This is why we need a space program... if but for nothing else but to provide simple observation satalights in orbit to help detect such threats in advance.
A moon base would also be somewhat spiffy too as far as creating a staging area in the event we do actually find a huge rock with a destination of earth.
There is no sanctuary. There is no sanctuary. SHUT UP! There is no shut up. There is no shut up.
Payback is a mo' fo'. Don't mess with Texas. Don't eat yellow snow. Stay away from the purple acid. And for goodness' sakes, don't drink the grape kool-aid! Oh, yeah, and, Heads Up!
Debian 3.0 delayed again: developers blame difficulties of locating 800 year old 32 bit hardware to complete kernel 2.4 testing on. Claim current quantum computers 'not stable enough'. spare a moment to think of joel "espy" klecker.
We'll still just be smoking pot and dropping acid at UC Santa Cruz, which may explain this report...
Phew, at least Europe is safe!
Lesbian Nazi Hookers Abducted by UFOs and Forced Into Weight Loss Programs - -all next week on Town Talk.
in the video did anyone else notice that they didnt take into effect what edges of land, like oh say florida, would do to the path of the wave? wouldnt it whip around in the guf due to some effect that i forgot the name of. and likewise deposit crazy amounts of sand somewhere too? i dunno.im just overthinking it arent i?
yawn...
according to this story, this simulation was done on a debian cluster running the hurd.
check out the date, it was published months ago.
You would have to accelerate to the speed of the asteroid anyway so what is the benefit. You would have no way of changing course and would have no ultimate gain.
Check out the Billabong XXL Surf Contest. They are only surfing 66 footers now. This would have them creaming the inside of their strides.
-- Karma Karma Karma Karma, Karma Chameleon - Boy George
That's a shot from Total Recall, a Schwarzenegger flick from 1990, very loosely based upon a Philip K. Dick short story. Damn fine movie.
We can neither love nor pity nor forgive. If you make a slip in handling us you die!
I would hope that humanity has the technology after almost 900 years to be able to stop such a disaster.
Chika Chik-ah... do-e ow ow.
'400 foot high waves'? My little Garmin Emap says that I'm at 435' of altitude, here in Maryland. I guess I'll be laughing at all the guys down the hill a little ways, sitting on their roofs, trying to stay dry. Do I know how to pick 'em or do I know how to pick 'em? Some people say coincidence or blind luck, I say 'Asteroid Collision Simulation Software'. It's good to be a geek.
With 400 foot waves I better start waxing my surf board now.
-- Many men would appreciate a woman's mind more if they could fondle it
"The so-called K/T impact, for example, ended the age of the dinosaurs 65 million years ago." So this is now a fact? Why wasn't I told?
by then we'll have the technology to move Earth out of the way, right?
I *suppose* we could alter the asteroid's course, but that wouldn't be as cool.
I have hit a brick wall at 215 kph at an angle of 30 degrees (relative to the wall, not the normal) AND I'm here to tell you this.
It's better to be the foot on the boot than the face on the pavement. ~~ tkx Kadin2048
Does anybody else feel unbelievably comforted that the biggest asteroid concern scientists have is 800 years from now? I guess that pretty much rules out the possibility of getting hit by an asterioid by surprise.
could happen much sooner, and come from this very planet. I recently watched a show televised on TLC (The Learning Channel) about several islands in the mid to north Atlantic ocean, the Canaries and Madeira among them, that are volcanic in nature. The idea proposed on the show was that on one of these islands (Iforget which), there is a volcano that is based literally on the coast and if it was to erupt and the side was to slide into the ocean, it would create a tsunami 600 feet high that would have enough momentum to carry itself straight through to the US Atlantic coast where it would still be between 300-400 high. And, oh, did I mention that it will be travelling at 600 MPH! I didn't believe that speed when I heard it and did a double take, but the narrator repeated the speed like he was sure that no one else would believe it either. Let's see... 3500 miles from the US coast divided by 600 MPH... that's roughly 6 hours to get the hell out of dodge if you're an east coast dweller. They also said that the floods that would result would affect people as far in as Kansas. Said flood would also affect the river levels and flood the tributaries. This would cause major crop damage, destry infrastructure like dams, berms, and controlled water flow.
So, this could happen in our lifetimes if this volcano was to erupt. It is way past due for another eruption. The last known eruption was in the 1700s. The volcano barely erupted, but many people were killed and the landscape was changed in such a way that the next eruption will likely cause the landmass to slide into the ocean causing the above problem.
Or it could move it right in the fucking way.
FIRST PO>......*BLIP*
--- I wish I could hear the soundtrack to my life. That way I'd know when to duck.
Remember, Hot Fudge Sundae falls on a Tuesdae...
--- I wish I could hear the soundtrack to my life. That way I'd know when to duck.
We better rush to get some DNA samples from Bruce Willis. We're gonna need him in about 880 years!
Considering the the Bush Administration's current environmental policies will render the planet uninhabitable within the next 2 decades, i think any disaster a few centuries from now shouls only cause concern for some sturdy strains of nematodes, viruses and prions...
From Dictionary.com:
nuclear ( P ) Pronunciation Key (nkl-r, ny-)
adj.
Biology. Of, relating to, or forming a nucleus: a nuclear membrane.
Physics. Of or relating to atomic nuclei: a nuclear chain reaction.
Using or derived from the energy of atomic nuclei: nuclear power.
Of, using, or possessing atomic or hydrogen bombs: nuclear war; nuclear nations.
Lodragan Draoidh
The more you explain it, the more I don't understand it. - Mark Twain
Wow... Bruce Willis will be pretty old by then.
In the USA, we like stuff watered down, like beer, television, and freedom.
Good point. Surely a colliding asteroid should be measured in units based on the dimensions of the Earth.
Won't anyone think of the children?
"At first, we thought it was just another snake cult."
By 2880 we'll just be able to use the USS Enterprise to tractor beam the asteroid out of the way.
> I'd consider being aboveland instead of inland..... Buy an airplane, dude, that's the only way to save your ass 500 years from now;oP....
... and maybe not so many options for places to land.
There'd be an awful lot of air turbulence as a result of this unless you were up really high
Wow, you actually read past the first sentence of that jibber-jabbger. I don't know who's more pathetic, the person who wrote that, the persons who read it, or the person who's criticising the persons who read it.
This is really not a problem if we use the beauty of the compound interest. If only one of us goes to the bank tomorrow and establishes a "Save the Earth from the 2880 Rock" fund and puts in $1, then at a reasonable return of 4% compounded quarterly, in 877 years the account will contain $867,438,242,859,150.80, which should be enough to fund any solution.
Unless of course we have some minor inflation and all that will buy in the year 2880 is a bottle of cheap wine.
If Slashdot were chemistry it would look like this:Cadaverine
I think in this situation, "coast" is a little irrelevant, as the scale of an area "near" the ocean is not applicable. Eastern side of the North American continent is a better description.
The highest point in Florida is a little under 400 feet, and most is well under that, so that would be hit really hard. Topography of southern Florida. The article says 200 foot wave is the minimum along the East coast...and I don't know if running opposite to the Gulf stream would affect the height.
Not that elsewhere nearby is much safer. Another bad place to be would be the WEST side of the Appalachians where the waves happen to reach over it -- as that flash flood would sweep downhill for another huge distance.
So long as Superman gets up off his ass, we should be fine. According to the "Lois & Clark" documentary back in the mid '90s, he can live for several centuries, possibly even millenia. The only problem is ever since he single-handedly changed the Earth's planetary rotation twice in one day back in 1978, he's gotten very lazy. Lately, he looks more like Dan Goodman in underroos than Christopher Reeve. Good God, man! Stop eating all those twinkies and go hunt down Lex Luthor's evil toupee or something.
"We are all in the gutter, but some of us are looking at the stars." - Oscar Wilde
The 60,000-megaton blast of the impact vaporizes the asteroid and blows a cavity in the ocean 11 miles across and all the way down to the seafloor, which is about 3 miles deep at that point. The blast even excavates some of the seafloor. That last little line is the big one, depending on how deep the ocean is where it hits will determine how much of the ocean floor it will throw up in the atmosphere. Also, I would like to know what theory you have that says a 60,000 MEGATON asteroid won't heat up to OMFG hot on entry into our atmosphere. Assuming you don't have one, which you don't, all that heat has to be dissapated to somewhere and hey look this wet stuff evaporates. As for the wave height sure the low countries should be concerned but what about the island countries (cuba, Puerto Rico, etc) some of the smaller ones could be wiped off the map, also keep in mind most of the tsunamis the world has dealt with have only been around 10-15m in height with the tallest being arount 75m I believe. So no one really knows what will happen when the 400 ft wave hits New York and starts going inland.
He'll probably have learned to sing better, tho.
... there was that famous song somewhere...
....
are we still gonna be around 2880 ???
doubt it that mankind will live thru the bush administration period
But they aren't sure it'll even hit earth at all? For some reason I don't think they know for sure where it'll hit if it does..
Eat at Joe's.
It is known, that if you have more than three objects in space, their prediction runs of into chaos. That is why in astronomy they start using chaos theory.
... think ... and it is said that it will impact in 2880.
Now this one, will most likely not happen. First of all, it is named 1950
In other words, it is an extra polation so far into the future, that it has no meaning at all and that it may well collide with some other object at some other time or gets obsoleted by a greater-than-0.3-candidate (sorry if I got your hopes up for a second).
All the scientists did who simulated this impact was to take this as their best guess for input into their simulation and to present something fascinating and not something that is compeletely off of this world.
Cheers, Sven
Yeah, but in one of those ironic Twilight Zone (tm) plot twists, the ATM only gives you pre-Euro European currency!! And then the guy in red greasepaint, horns and a goatee appears to laugh maniacally at you.
I hate when that happens.
Liberal (adj.): Free from bigotry; open to progress; tolerant of others.
The maximum theoretical wave height that saltwater can achieve is 263ft. The highest recorded wave ever, I believe, was 170ft. After 263ft, the wave crest is so large it simply cannot sustain itself and the wave will break.
Oh baaaaby. This calls for the loooong board. Wait a minute. March 16, 2880? Dude. Isn't that like, way off in the future or something? 406 Dude.
The Russians have won. They have made the world a cesspool of distrust, greed, fear and hate.
monserrat(sp). Yeah, masive landslide. THey also had a special about supervolcanoes, one of which might have literally almost wiped out the human race 75000 years ago. Volcano was called toba, and they think its responsible for the bottleneck in the human gene pool about 75000 years ago, where the human race was down to like a thousand individuals world wide. THink nuclear winter times 100. Oh, also, yellowstone park, with the happy fun geisers is another one of these volcanos of the same type, it goes of every 600,000 years or so. Last went off 600,000 years ago. SO id avoid yellostone. really intersting stuff. Look it up.
All Troll + "offtopic" mods are meta moderated as "Unfair", because you abused the system.
Um, isn't that the image of what happened one minute before the goatse picture was taken? (ewwww)
-T
The object that struck Siberia in the early part of the twentieth century entered the atmosphere at an oblique angle. The consequential surface heating caused the object to break apart and strike the surface of the planet in several distinct parts. While this didn't change the amount of kinetic energy involved, it did alter the strike range and direction of the blast. If an object strikes the Atlantic Ocean at the appropriate angle, it's possible that an enormous tidal wave will destroy the UK while leaving the US relatively unharmed. If a large object breaks up in descent, it might devastate multiple US cities as opposed to only vaporizing New York.
Massive tsunami sweeps Atlantic Coast in asteroid impact scenario for March 16, 2880...
Just in time to celebrate my 900th birthday!!!
Happy birthday to me, happy birthday to me, happy birthday dear-- Ahhhhh Massive tsunami coming...gurgle...gurg...
So what?
Ad Astra Per Asper
This article is really quite disturbing...
0 rele ases/tsunami_more%20info.htm
According to the map they show that volcano is
just pretty much off the west coast of africa.
But they say the Carribean and the east coast of
the US will take the major hit...
what about bloody africa???? Is just really nobody
giving a shite about people living in africa or
do their models actually predict a mainly westwards
oriented tsunami????
this is disturbing...
ok, did a bit of research and here's the relevant
part of an article at
http://www.benfieldhrc.org/CentreNews/press%2
"The greatest effects are predicted to occur north, west and south of the Canaries. On the West Saharan shore waves are expected to reach heights of 100 metres from crest to trough and on the north coast of Brazil waves over 40 metres high are anticipated. Florida and the Caribbean, the final destinations in the North Atlantic to be affected by the tsunami, will have to brace themselves for receiving 50 metre high waves - higher than Nelson's column in London, some 8 to 9 hours after the landslide. Towards Europe waves heights will be smaller, but substantial tsunami waves will hit the Atlantic coasts of Britain, Spain Portugal and France."
Realistically, by then it will be of academic interest as the human race will have succeeded in eliminating every living creature on earth except for cockroaches (and consultants, of course) anyway.
A landslide from one of the Hawiian volcanoes could send similar waves throughout the Pacific rim. There are 10s of millions of people (more than 100 million?) living in cities that would be wiped off the map by that.
The Discovery channel occasionally re-runs that bit about an island in the east Atlantic that could do the same thing to the east coast of the US.
So, before we start fussing about asteroids in 2880, perhaps we ought to come up with a way to figure out how to control the geology right hear on Earth.
IANAG, but perhaps we could safely remove material from the tops of these peaks without triggering an eruption, and use that material to build a wall that would contain the slide. Not only would the potential energy release from the slide be reduced, but it might also be possible to contain the wave behind the wall. If the slide displaces nothing but air and then hits a wall, there is no wave to propogate.
Of course that doesn't work for an asteroid, because you don't know where it's going to hit.
For all intensive purposes, "whom" is no longer a word. That begs the question, "who cares"?
RAND did a report on the use of space based weapons, Space Weapons Earth Wars. It has some interesting analysis of the practicality and performance of space based kinetic energy weapons, both artificial and natural. See Appendix B. A tungsten sphere with a radius of 1 meter, entering at 11 km/s and 60, will retain 34% of its kinetic energy and 99% of its mass to impact. The impact will release the equivalent of 422 tons of TNT in kinetic energy.
Mea navis aericumbens anguillis abundat
2880? Man I already got the telesync foo
Well if it's just the east coast that's fine with me. Or am I missing some irony here?
open (SIG, "</dev/zero"); $sig = <SIG>; close SIG;
Asteroid 2030!!!!!!!!!
Wah!
Supercomputer? Gees Louise, if an Apple laptop can take out a sentient alien race, surely it can take care of a rock.
I did the math, and in 2880, it's not going to hit the east coast. It's going to smack straight into Uranus.
Who moved my sig?
Sure, YOU're here, but what happened to the car? Not many asteroids have impact-absorption zones and passenger restraints.
Might make it hit an orbit or two earlier too ;) Such far off predictions are hardly accurate. There are so many variables involved and it's a very chaotic system, dependant on small differences in initial conditions. In short... who knows what it might do.
--Justin Mitchell
"2nd Place is a fancy word for losing" --Bender (Futurama)
I realize now that my soul is forfeit. I could actually read that entire message at only a 10% speed reduction. Why, God, why? I don't even use IRC!
and I don't have to wait until 2088
It was really cool for me to see this posted here becuase I am currently taking a class from Eric Asphaug at UCSC. On the midterm he even asked us when 1950DA would impact. I haven't met the other guy, but Asphaug is really a great professor and his class is actually a lot of fun.
Let's see, $95.00 for a cheap Palm, sit down for an evening and figure out how to put "Year 2880, put on swimming trunks, flippers, etc. and get ready for Asteroid-produced Tidal Wave".
Now that I've entered that, I can sit down and wait for the alarm to go off on my Zire in the year 2880, so I can read the message on the tiny screen and act accordingly...
"Je me attens a Dieu, mon createur, de tout; je layme (l'ayme) de tout mon cuer"
"I place trust in God, my creator, in all things; I love Him with all my heart."
"Je me attens a mon juge, cest (c'est) le roy du ciel et de la terre"
"I trust in my Judge, who is the King of Heaven and Earth".
Saint Joan of Arc at Vaucouleurs:
Asked who her Lord was, she replied: "He is the King of Heaven!"
Asked if she was afraid: "I fear nothing for God is with me!"
Saint Joan of Arc's last words:
"Hold the crucifix up before my eyes so I may see it until I die."
"Jesus, Jesus, Jesus!"
-------
If you were unfortunate enough to watch the movie The Messenger, this is NOT what Saint Joan of Arc was like. Watch the Joan of Arc miniseries starring Leelee Sobieski as Joan of Arc and you'll see a more accurate representation of who Saint Joan of Arc was and is.
St. Joan of Arc pray for us!
What do you think happened to the other moon we used to have?
Remove the e-mail to NOSPAM
Destroying this matrix is no big deal, we still have matrix inside matrix inside matrix...
What's the chances of converting a good part of this to hydropower? We already have Hoover Dam providing a large amount of electricity..and that's from a desert!
We could probably even use excess electricity to keep the waves in a wirl pool/funnel state to keep it from hitting the coast, or to force the waves down..
Vehicle Stars used car search is my current project
Perhaps they will not be speaking english, but I guarantee that within 15 years, that poor excuse for a non-language called elite speak will have vanished into the darkness of failed arrogance.
excitingthingstodo.blogspot.com
And don't forget it goes out past Mars, too! For more calculation fun, of course, don't forget
And a wacky idea I've had floating around for a while:
Could the "hole" which produced Hawaii be the result of an ancient impact? Then the Hawaiian Islands, the Hawaiian Ridge and the Emperor Seamounts are just a record of the Pacific plate drifting over that impact site, which is still bubbling...
And if you accept that, what produced the "sudden" left turn in the volcanic chain? Did the Pacific plate go "bump"?
Probably very little chance of converting it to hydropower. Even if it were theoretically possible, there is far too much risk involved. Still, it would be neat if we could. On the other hand If asteroids don't do us in (or at least hurt us), then perhaps these might. The link goes to the BBC Radio 4 science website. There are 5 radio programs about the different theories of the end of the universe. http://www.bbc.co.uk/radio4/science/briefhistory.s html