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High-Tech Firms Worry About Taiwan-China Tensions
Andy Tai writes "This San Jose Mercury News story shows high tech companies in the Silicon Valley worry about a possible war between mainland China and Taiwan. Both play important roles in the computer industry and the U.S. depends on both to finance the federal budget deficits. Many businessmen hope that economic considerations will prevent both sides from marching down a self-destructive path."
the memory shortages several years back when the taiwanese warehouses and manufacturers we blown away by a typhoon?
Maybe these company CEOs should signal the Taiwan government that it's not good for business if you intentionally provoke a neighbour with nuclear weapons and the world's largest standing military.
The owls are not what they seem
Looks like the old "The is only one China" Jedi mind trick is becoming less effective.
Many businessmen hope that economic considerations will prevent both sides from marching down a self destructive path.
Meanwhile, hippies hope that love of peace will prevent both sides from marching down a self destructive path, and Slashdotters hope that considering the impact of a war on American technology consumers will prevent the war.
The shareholder is always right.
Maybe now execs will start to see the true value of keeping their high tech centers located in stable political environments.
It's nice to think that what with war looming, the prospect of thousands of people being killed, all business men can think about is money. It sickens me.
When anger rises, think of the consequences.
Confucius (551 BC - 479 BC)
Walmart gets a very large portion of their stuff from China. It would probably cause prices to rise on darn near everything in the US.
That would not necessarily be a bad thing. Probably help out domestic manufacturing.
********* sig: If you don't like the law, get filthy stinking rich, and buy a better one.
is that j^raxis wife la ?
-- The WIPO Avenger
Also consider the large number of immigrants from China (both the ROC and the PRC) in the Silicon Valley. Many of them have family back there who would be caught in the conflict. I used to work for a company in which a majority of the people were from Taiwan. I can imagine them getting quite worried.
-- $SIGNATURE
They say they don't want a war because it'd be unprofitable. Isn't avoiding unnecessary bloodshed a good enough reason anymore?
I ran a benchmark on my quantum computer, now I can't find it anywhere!
Come on, this is WHY it is cheap and effective to use offshore suppliers.
The reason that many countries are expensive is because they are safe and stable.
The laws, workforce, international situation are all good, you are likely dealing with an expensive country.
If you go to some country that has "political risk" the costs will be lower to account for this, everyone who does business with such a country must account for this risk.
If you want a safe stable place to do business keep it in a stable country, Don't put it in a semi independant nation/state mess on the other side of the world.
i c lo ..
sory small gas ^^
-- The WIPO Avenger
Resides in
The White House
Cheers,
Kilgore Trout
I doubt Hyundai (South Korea) or Micron are particularly worried. In fact, they might prefer a war between the Chinas.
Personally, I wondered why Hong Kong banks didn't get together and go buy a small South American country, like Peru. Land is so expensive there that they're buying fill from mainland China to expand the island (with fiber optics and other necessary utilities built in as it goes).
If they had just bought Peru (or any other small, poor country) they could have done some terrific things.
Israel could do the same thing. Their neighbors would probably pay for the purchase. I'm certain they could even take the holy land with themselves. How many feet down? 6? load it onto freighters and ship it to wherever they bought. Bang, the mideast problems ends.
********* sig: If you don't like the law, get filthy stinking rich, and buy a better one.
Amazing what killing/jailing those who disagree you does. Also, it doesn't hurt if you keep most of your population at damn near the global poverty level.
Chips, boards, capacitors, resistors and other micro components used by the military are all supplied by Tawian. Military action against the Tawian would force the US into protecting its own interests
Seriously. The US government isn't about kindness and compassion. It exist only to protect big business.
I think Micron qualifies.
********* sig: If you don't like the law, get filthy stinking rich, and buy a better one.
I mean if there's conflict, what's going to happen to Red Flag Linux? I suppose SUN can use this as free advertising for their Java Desktop -- The Choice(TM) of a government who does not like choices.
Of course if they had emperor McBride, all they have to do is say that Taiwan is a derrivative work of mainland China and as such belongs to China. They can then proceed to charge $699 for each person who wishes to live in Taiwan.
Micron is based in the USA.
Many businessmen hope that economic considerations will prevent both sides from marching down a self destructive path.
Both economically and militarily, there won't be mutual self-destruction between mainland China and Taiwan. Instead, there will be one huge mammoth of a country squashing a football-field-sized other country.
And there won't be economic or military sanctions on China (the threat of which is what prevented it from harming Taiwan for so long) because now the US, the only country able to inflict any kind of sanctions on China, has vested interests in both countries.
The only thing China risks is reproachful looks at the UN for a while, then after everybody there is done looking really shocked, Taiwan will be history. Proof is, if the rest of the world had any kind of power against China's actions, Tibet would have been freed a long time ago.
In short: Taiwan's days are numbered.
"A door is what a dog is perpetually on the wrong side of" - Ogden Nash
For anyone who is as utterly clueless as I was about what's going on between China and Taiwan, take a look at this:
a iwan.html
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/asia/china/china-t
What has *science* done?!? -- Dr. Weird (ATHF)
But as I said before, a war between the two countries isn't likely. China knows the consequences of going into Taiwan; it would lead to American intervention and probably put an end to Chinese economic development and lucrative trade China does with the United States.
- A
... between the two of them in the past, what on earth could people be worried about?
China didn't keep it's territory intact over 3000 years by letting renegade provinces break away. China can and will control Taiwan again.
Also China was basically the world leader in science and technology for most of world history so once this little western imperialism era thingy is over China will be back on top, probably for a couple thousand more years.
there wil not be a war between china and taiwan for several reasons. now you need to understand some military history (which fortunately is my vocation, geekdom being my avocation).
first, china simply can't go to war with taiwan. (oh sure, they can fire some missles, but then see down the list.) see, to cross 70 miles of the strait of formosa (taiwan strait) would be an undertaking that would make normandy and okinawa be minor ops. they don't have the 1) airforce to provide cover, 2) the navy to carry them over, 3) the ability to protect the invasion from being observed from satelites, which would give us and taiwan advanced notice, 4) the ability to hold and maintain a beachhead once there. it doesn't matter if you have one million, or 10 million, troops in an invasion. if you can't support them, they're targets.
second, china built the three gorges dam. they have so much capital (even in communist china!!) tied up in it, it generates such a large portionof power. and, it is impssible to defend from air ro missile attack. we could take it out in about 10 minutes. and they're fscking toast.
third, china is so dependent upon the US trade for an in flux of capital and hard currency. anything more than sabre rattling, and we shut that off, they take a shit. they are fscked.
i could go on further. the cuyrrent regime is on its last legs. this is an in ternal power struggle between the old commies and the younger reformers. nothing else.
My problem? I was perfectly gruntled, until some numbnuts came by and dissed me.
"Avoiding unnecessary bloodshed" hasn't worked as a reason for the last 4000 years or so, why would it work any better today?
If money keeps these morons from fighting, then I say hurrah for money.
China has been splintered and fragmented for its entire existence.
The west has always lead in science and technology.
...every fucking thing to finance the deficit. If one of the house of cards falls away or even the growth rate of the economy slows, were fucked again and again. Just wait as the state and local governments tax every heartbeat to make ends meet without their federal crack. Let's hope we return to the go-go days flush with capital gains and dividends to siphon off to give the electorate their every whim while we do all this nation building.
U.S. depends on both to finance the federal budget deficits.
Walmart gets a very large portion of their stuff from China. It would probably cause prices to rise on darn near everything in the US. That would not necessarily be a bad thing. Probably help out domestic manufacturing.
The impact of war on this country would be none too pleasant. Goods shortages mean price rises means inflation means rising interest rates. The war would also disrupt Chinese purchases of American debt -- further driving up interest rates.
With higher interest rates would come debt problems for many people (who's ready for 24% credit card interest rates and 8-12% mortgage rates?). Rising interest rates would also kill the affordability of housing. Housing prices would drop and a bunch of people would find that they own more on their house than the house is worth. I doubt that domestic manufacturers would be able to pick up the slack because they woudl not be able to afford to borrow the money needed to invest in equipment and people.
Its a global economy and this war would not be pretty for anyone (and I won't even go into the possibility of direct U.S. intervention in any attack on Taiwan).
Two wrongs don't make a right, but three lefts do.
If it worked that way in the USA you would be in jail for making that comment.
I'd speculate China is very much interested in the lucrative semiconductor bussiness (Taiwan is clearly way ahead of China in this respect; technology exports to China are controlled), and certainly not in conquering Taiwan at any cost (read: very destructive war).
The Raven
Neither of the countries have "vast oil reserves", so GWB isn't directly interested in stopping a lop-sided war... however, ... yeah, flamebait, i know.
China did make a token gesture. They will do for Taiwan what they did for Hong Kong.
There will be no referendum. There will be no independence. There will be only status quo, although, the ruling partyin Taiwan WILL get a nice dacha in northern province.
Let them go to war. It just means Intel and all these other companies will be forced to deal with American companies and American workers.
People don't exist to serve systems, systems exist to serve people.
Their neighbour does not fancy itself as such, but rather their master. They do not have much choice but to provoke, just waiting while China keeps chipping away diplomatically at any international support for Taiwan with baby steps is not an option. If Taiwan does not make it clear once in a while they do not want to rejoin the hypocrisy of governments in dealing with China can be too easily excused towards their constituents, until China feels they have enough of a mandate to simply occupy it.
They are in a PR war at the moment.
What I find beyond explanation is why US outsourcers this kind of stuff to Asia..It seems there is always some kind of crap going on over there...
Aside from the fact that China doesn't give a fuck about economic concerns, there isn't much chance of a war happening.
As unlikely as more people looking to China than the U.S. for hopes for a better future.
[o]_O
There will ne no Taiwan China war. At least no longer than 72 hours. Without US direct militar support China will asume control of Taiwan in less than 72h from the start of invasion.
http://ebgp.net/ccc/
Saddam had historical claims on Kuwait too ... you can always construe agression as internal conflict if you try hard enough.
Morally we all know Taiwan is an independent state, wether our governments recognise it as such or not.
It is just appeasement all over again.
You and I both know you are trolling.
While the USA doesn't have a perfect record, I have seen plenty of people on tv, on the internet and in print say negative things about this administration. And yes, quite a few of them where Muslim and/or Arabic. And none of them are in jail.
Geeks should recall that neither is it wise to intentionally provoke a neighbour with 40 billion dollars in assets and a 99% desktop market share. It may be instructive to also remember those things called "ideals", that some people consider to be worth fighting for.
The hippie is a convenient straw man. The word has so many associations with shiftlessness and stupidity that even counterculture folks like Ken Kesey use it as a term of a abuse. But it's not fair to saddle every idealistic philosophy with the label. Especially the pacifists, who have been around for centuries, and even played a role in the founding and settlement of the U.S.
If they will have anything to protect them with.
http://ebgp.net/ccc/
Seriously, Taiwan needs to get a hold of some nuclear weapons. Since they're so close to mainland China they don't even need ICBM to deliver them. It's not like thye don't have the infrastructure to develop them, they just need some raw materials. Hell, if North Korea of all places can build some nukes then Taiwan sure can. Mutually assured destruction (MAD) kept the Western world safe when the USSR had the manpower to overrun Europe it can work for Taiwan too. Maybe they can buy a few from Israel. It the fear that Israel has a shitload of nukes that keeps the local Arab nations from trying to push them into the sea (that and the fact they kicked their ass the last two times they tried but I'm sure the nukes help).
God, man. You've really bought the hook, like and sinker if you believe that crap.
Short range missles would reach Taipei.
China and Taiwan are just posturing for the upper hand in reunification, which is probably not more than a few decades away.
> to cross 70 miles of the strait of formosa would be an undertaking that would make normandy and okinawa be minor ops.
> they don't have the 1) airforce to provide cover,
> 2) the navy to carry them over, 3) the ability to
> protect the invasion from being observed from
> satelites, which would give us and taiwan
> advanced notice, 4) the ability to hold and
> maintain a beachhead once there
China has an excellent military, including an air force and the navy, which it can use quite effectively. Remember the time when Taiwan was having its first elections, back in 1996? China performed quite a show of force back then, holding exercises in which an occupying force took and held a beachhead and a few islands, giving a good proof of concept for a Taiwan invasion. The comparison with Normandy is misleading; Taiwan does not have anything comparable to the forces that Germans had on that beach. The coast of Taiwan is not all that well protected, and I doubt that the Chinese army would worry much about it, unless the U.S. decided to intervene. As for your comment about satellites; first, advance warning of a few hours is not going to help much against such a powerful adversary; second, if Saddam Hussein had no difficulty hiding tanks in the open desert from both the satellites and ground observation, surely, a technologically advanced nation like China could figure something out.
> second, china built the three gorges dam.
When important national interests are at stake, the Chinese government would be willing to overlook a few casualties.
> we could take it out in about 10 minutes.
Perhaps. But would we? The U.S. needs China way more than China needs the U.S.; China is the producer, the U.S. is the consumer. If the producer loses one market, it could find another. If the consumer loses the goods, he loses the goods. There is simply no way domestic industry could replace all the cheap imports from China. Slave labor is always cheaper than technology.
Have you considered Peru might not be for sale?
-- Repeat with me: "There is no right to profits".
Of course they'd fail, since the U.S. couldn't allow them to succeed. But the fighting would devestate Korea and place a nasty strain on U.S. military resources, which are already stretched. Let's see, that would leave two of the most productive economies in Asia (Taiwan and Korea) in utter ruins, with millions of unemployed. And the U.S., which is already spending gazillions it doesn't have, would be spending gazillions more. So economic hard times here, for a bunch of reasons.
And that's the best case scenario. It assumes the DPRK doesn't have more than a couple of nukes...
So you are saying that since I believe in God my opinions do not matter?
There won't be a war between China and Taiwan. Why?
1. US Popular Support For Taiwan. I don't care what the pessimists, Europeans, and US bashers out there say, the American people love the ideals of democracy, of freedom, etc. Being an American forces you to accept those ideals. Now, since the WMD is gone, Bush has justified the Iraq war as "helping the oppressed Iraqis". What about the Taiwanese? Aren't they going to be oppressed if China takes over? Damn straight they will. And Bush will be fscked, because even if he doesn't want war, his very actions doom him to this one action. There's a famous Latin phrase for this, but I forgot it. Anyone want to help me out?
2. Saber Rattling. China has been rattling it's saber at Taiwan for what? Years, decades even. And it's gotten old. I'll believe the Chinese are going to invade Taiwan when I see shitloads of Chinese troops boarding a cruiser...
3. Economic. China is a fscking Communist, if anyone's forgotten. It represses people. If China doesn't want to go into a recession, it won't invade. Guess what? If China invades, say goodbye to Chinese exports to Western nations. Goodbye to China's booming economy. And goodbye to general Chinese population happiness. China's people are tolerating the government because it's providing a growing standard of living (Although, speaking as a political scientist, it's unclear whether the Communist government can stay in power as capitalism, long a hallmark of Western democracies, booms). Anyway, when China's economy drops through the floor, what happens? Discontentment. Perhaps riots. Worst case scenario, China will need troops just to quell disturbances, etc.
4. Western Help. Come on. As listed in #1, we're going to go help the Taiwanese. Subs, missiles, ships, etc. I'd like to see the nonexistent Chinese Navy, full of Chinese Army troops, get to Taiwan when confronted by the US Seventh Fleet. Not to mention high altitude bomber attacks.
Since Texas, being a nation, entered the Union thru a formal treaty Texas does have the right to leave the union. Texas also has the right to breakup into, I think, 5-6 sub states if they so chose.
Pacifist and Hippies are outdated terms, nowadays here is how you classify people:
Are opposed to war, but are not terribly vocal: anti-american
Are opposed to war, and will protest and whatnot: terrorist
Check the price of land in Taiwan. Check the price of land in Peru.
An old adage in business: for enough money ANYTHING is for sale. Taiwan doesn't have to show up and say: How much for your lovely country, they could just start buying up real estate. Asian bankers have bucks and backing. It wouldn't take much to start developing Peru, or whatever other country was available.
Look, they might need some new laws regarding percentage ownership, but it's not like they couldn't buy political influence too. I'm also not talking about throwing out the old population, just buy, develop and move in.
If Peru doesn't want the obvious economic benefits, there are certainly other countries that would take the deal.
********* sig: If you don't like the law, get filthy stinking rich, and buy a better one.
Taiwant governors are against the large-scale investment plan of taiwan major IT manufactors to mainland china for poiltical reasons.
Furthermore they also disencourge people from mainland china visiting and treat all of them as spies. It means you must back to hotel before 7pm and report to your guide everyday! This prevents the normal technical communcation between two areas.
Thirdly there are not direct tranportation method between mainland china to taiwan (must via a third place.) The import tax is almost free for transport industry goods from taiwan to mainland china but is very high for inverse.
All of these aspects lead to the result of many additional, unreasonable costs are attached into the final IT products. One thing is surly confirm that many IT products will become much cheaper(such as motherboard, ram and monitor) if two areas are united, at least in terms of market.
In addition, in fact, for chinese people, we dont call taiwan and china as two countries(For long time western medias have been misleading this key point where most Chinese people, even many people in taiwan, are strongly against). Instead, we use taiwan district of China and mainland China, or Republic of China and People's Republic of China, agreed with both governments.
It's worth noting that China said they'd immediately invade if they found that Taiwan ever had any kind of nuclear capability, which would be quite the playing field leveler.
In 1992 the CIA convinced that Taiwanese head of their nuclear program to defect and take everything with them. It's so Bat-cave it's worth noting the Taiwanese did this on the sly through a secret trap door in on of their nuclear power plant. As part of the agreement between the US and Taiwan that they would never again attempt a nuclear program (they probably have) we agreed to act with them in their defense should China attack.
The Taiwanese want to be as free as possible, just like everyone else in the world. I certainly wonder if we'd hang them out to dry after having taken away their teeth. Not that the Taiwanese wouldn't inflict significant casualties on those troops seeking to cross the straights. But if they'd managed to finish of their nuke, the mouse might have held the lion at bay indefinately (Or immediately provoke him). It's always fascinating to see the choices the US makes in the interests of economic stability too.
With the delicate complexity of the US - China relationship it's actually pretty surprising that one of their generals would say something so provokative if there wasn't another message embedded in there.
I can't imagine China actually invading Taiwan in a climate where they understand the US would act in defense of the Taiwanese people. They would almost have to look an nuclear weapons to make it work, which would insure their annhilation. But then Bush understood those intricacies so well when our spy plane crashed. You'd think Rice, with a PhD in her field of expertise (although a different region) would have been able to provide better advice.
Here's an interesting tidbit: Taiwan happens to be a major trading partner with China. Many enterprises on the mainland are owned and/or operated by Taiwanese. This despite the two countries being in a technical state of war!
You have to consider this in the context of Taiwan's historical relationship with China (or the rest of China, depending on your party line). The old Chinese Empire always claimed to own Taiwan, even though they did a very poor job of enforcing that claim. And whenever there was a civil war or dynastic dispute, the underdog would always retreat to Taiwan. They did this because the island is notoriously hard to invade, not having a lot of good beaches or harbors. The last time this happened was in 1948, when the Chinese Nationalists, having lost their civil war with the Communists, retreated to Tawain and set up a sort of government in exile. Said government was recognized by much of the world (including the U.S. and the UN) as the legal authority in all of China, right up until 1971.
For nearly 40 years, the Nationalists ruled Taiwan like an occupying power, tolerating no dissent. They were finally forced to allow elections in 1992. This resulted in the old mainland gerontocracy being replaced by local politicians, many of which are strong believers in Taiwanese independence. The big irony of the current situation is that this independence movement is directed as much at the old Nationalists as at the mainland government, and the Nationalists are now effectively allied with their Communist enemies!
What Beijing would really like to do is somehow take over Taiwan peacefully, the way they did with Hong Kong and Macao. They would then crack down on the most conspicuous dissent, but do their best to leave the Taiwanese free market in place. That might sound like a strange strategy for the last remaining Marxist-Leninist state. But that state is run by an elite that is as anxious to turn a buck as any Wall Street tycoon.
...will somebody PLEASE think of the computers!! I mean children.... no wait computer... chil... comput...
which one are we worried about here?
"The world under heaven, after a long period of division, tends to unite; after a long period of union, tends to divide. This has been so since antiquity. When the rule of the Zhou Dynasty weakened, seven contending kingdoms sprang up, warring one with another until the kingdom of Qin prevailed and possessed the empire. But when Qin's destiny had been fulfilled, arose two opposing kingdoms, Chu and Han, to fight for the mastery. And Han was the victor."
"Before him bowed the kings of Shu and Wu,
Content to forfeit kingly power for life.
All down the ages rings the note of change,
For fate so rules it; none escapes its sway.
The three kingdoms have vanished as a dream,
The useless misery is ours to grieve."
These are the opening and ending lines of Romance of the Three Kingdoms, one of the most popular and well-known books in China. In the Chinese mentality the reunification of Taiwan with China is something that is going to happen eventually, if not right now. Why? They look at history. China has always split into 2 or more countries after the end of a dynasty and one of those countries has always gone and defeated the others to reunify China. Since it has always happened in the past it will happen in the future (Chinese believe strongly in cycles). If people wonder where China's obsession with unification comes from...Historical characters such as those in Three Kingdoms who reunite China (or try really really hard eg. Ngok Fei) are always admired and become national heroes and are even elevated to gods.
I can see China invading Taiwan though not right now. If civil unrest continues in China and the economy goes downhill, in order to maintain power the government might raise the spectre of nationalism. Nationalism is already replacing Communism as the idealism the government is using to keep people loyal and faithful. And once nationalism is raised in rhetoric it may be a war that the Chinese government is forced into by its own proclaimations. It may back itself into a corner and decide invading and the consequences would be better than losing face. And unification has always been a fascination of the Chinese as books like Romance of the Three Kingdoms show. Think - a restless China with economic problems, a new young energetic Chinese premier comes into power on the back of a strong nationalist campaign. He thinks - could I become another Guan Yu from Three Kingdoms (who is now worshipped as a god)? The temptation to recreate the Oath of the Peach Tree Garden may be too hard to resist. Chinese rulers have done a lot more stupid illogical frankly self-destructive things in the past.
In these circumstances, the needs of technology users in America are going to be the least of their considerations. Godhood or computer users in the US? Godhood or computer users in the US?
Do you have a link or description of any evidence indicating Taiwan has these nuclear weapons? My understanding is that Taiwan had a nuclear program, which the US managed to discourage.
Israel didn't get the raw material for their nukes from the U.S., by the way. Much more help from the French and later the South Africans. The U.S. did its best (both unintentionally and intentionally) to keep their eyes closed about the Israeli program.
" the US certainly loved the self destructive path in afghanistan and iraq"
Yes, polls show the the Taliban and Saddam Hussein are wanted back in power in Afghaistan and Iraq, respectively. Oh wait that's Bin Laden that wants the Taliban back in Afghanistan, and FRANCe, Germany, and Russia that want Hussein back in Iraq, so they can continue their lucrative contracts with Iraq.
I loathe hippies, and I live in Berkeley. The smell of patchouli or the sounds of a Bob Marley album are enough to send me over the edge. Having said that, I would hate to see a war between Taiwan and China. Like all wars, it would be pointless and would kill lots of innocent people who wanted nothing more than to be left alone. So don't lump us all in with the hairfarmers.
You're quibbling over a constitutional point while discussing the "People's Republic" of China? The communists don't give a shit about any rights a piece of paper says their people have. It's an oligarchy, run by power hungry old fucks who could care less what sort of government they have, so long as they're running it.
The constitution of the old Soviet Union gave every citizen the right to free speech. How free was speech there?
Economic common sense has never stood in the way of a war. France was Germany's biggest and most important trading partner in 1940. They invaded it anyway.
The Soviet Union would have been much better off and would have survived if they had spent four decades trading freely with Western Europe instead of arming themselves to conquer it by force.
Only on
How close are we to developing a value system which would see war waged wherein the combatants maintain economic ties. There are many costs to war but one of the foremost costs is loss of economic infrastructure. Weren't there business relations between the Allies and Germany during WWII?
"Academicians are more likely to share each other's toothbrush than each other's nomenclature."
Cohen
I like Chinese / They only come up to your knees.
China will take Taiwan when they know they can get away with it. The US only delaying the inevitable. Americans think in terms of months, the Europeans in terms of years, the Japanese in terms of decades, but the Chinese in terms of centuries. China will of course be sure not to spoil the economic plum that is Taiwan unless it no longer matters. They'll probably do to it what they did to Tibet. I feel guilty when I say this, but a bloody war between China and Taiwan wouldn't bother me especially if it helped to reduce the mainlands population.
From the article:
Sounds similar to the substantial position of some western corporations to me, only that the producer
On a side note: I would be grateful if one of our American friends could explain the fact that Taiwan is available through the CIA-factbook mentioned above, but cannot easily be found on the pulldown located on the main page.
Military action against the Tawian would force the US into protecting its own interests
This would be true, if the US wasn't tied up at the moment with Afghanistan and Iraq. Really, if China wanted to take Taiwan, and nukes were not an option, the most we could do is air and sea strikes, which will cease to be effictive the moment PRC troops land and move into urban areas. There's no way we could commit ground forces unless you want to move the division(s?) on the Korean peninsula. Plus, it WOULD be bad for business all around, so see a LOT of diplomacy put forth first before a single shot is fired from the American side.
The rapid reaction Army Rumsfeld wants isn't here yet, and a lot of the Army and Marines we've got have just gone for a year (or more) on active deployment. We don't really have a National Guard or Reserve anymore - they're just as crucial for regular deployment these days as regular active units because of the defense cutbacks of the 90's. If it comes to a slugfest, and nobody else is willing to pitch in, we'll have to reinstate the draft... meaning that it very likely will NOT happen.
There has been a recent survey of mainland Chinese people on their opinions regarding the Taiwan issue conducted in the beginning of December. About 4,000 respondents from different chinese regions including big cities like Beijing and Shanghai, but also small towns and villages in several provinces were asked during the survey.
m l
The result was quite interesting, so let me translate it for you. Those of you who can read Chinese may check it out here: http://tw.people.com.cn/GB/14810/14858/2235881.ht
--- begin survey results ---
The overwelming majority of mainland Chinese supports unification with Taiwan. Those who wouldn't mind if Taiwan becomes independence were only 2.3%, while nearly 60% hopes developments of economic cooperation and enhancements of communication and understanding could help both side come together one day.
Those supporting immediate use of military force are 14.7%, those wanting to keep the status quo but believing military force may still be necessary in the end are 13.2%, and there are 11,3% who don't feel like being able to make a choice due to lack of information.
Further analysis shows the group of people favouring unification through economic cooperation are mostly city residents, younger than the average and relatively well educated. The core of this group are male city residents between 26 and 35 of age, with an university graduation and a middle to high income. The core of the group favouring status quo are female city residents between 36 and 45, with a college graduation and middle to low income. Those supporting immediate use of force are mostly male village residents.
--- end suvey results ---
Now, this reads quite stereotypical, but it's not surprising so. While "businessmen hope that economic considerations" will win over hollow ideology, the less educated Chinese villagers hope national pride will win over monetary greed. I for myself can't say that the one type is better than the other. If they had asked me, I would belong to those "lacking information", while in fact I'm pretty sure of being far better informed than 90% of all those people they asked.
Ok... was that a mistake? An intentional +1 Funny? Or are you really postulating that Taiwan will, at some point, gain the economic (and thus military) ability to, err, "take" China?
Is this the first time that capitalism and greed is looking to prevent a loss of human life?
...is better located and safer since within the US. Many of the real estate here belongs to Japanese and Taiwanese, and the state is culturally close to Asia.
Oh, and did I mention the weather?
Would you guys give tubgirl a rest already?
Recent events have cast a more optimistic look on the whole situation. In this recent CNN article on 12/11/2003, Wen says, "We respect the desire of the Taiwan people to develop and pursue democracy. However, we firmly oppose the attempts by certain separatist forces in Taiwan to pursue Taiwan independence under the disguise of promoting democracy in an attempt to cut of Taiwan from the mainland." If reunification is the purpose, there's no point in going there and blowing everything away.
If there is a war, the U.S. will obviously back Taiwan. But since China's army == huge, some U.S. allies would probably get involved.
The draft is inevitable. There will be conscription in the US after the 2004 elections. The average US citizen is too clueless to realize it. (And the rich's bitch, mass media is not about to clue them in.)
The Pentagon/CiC has guestimated that they need 100,000 combat troops in Iraq. (They probably need twice that number) Without a comprehensive campaign to eradicate the insurgency, that's where our citizens will be for the next decade.
The problem is that roughly 40% of that force is not "regular" Army; its reserve forces. Those forces consist of people who decided not to make a lifelong career in the military, but agreed to train and be used in military conflicts when needed. The people making USD 40-100K/yr are not going to be happy making USD 30K while living in a shithole and having to worry about dying or being permanently disabled.
Right now, the US military has committed to the policy of rotating troops out of that region after one year. That means roughly 100K NEW bodies, trained and capable of executing combat operations will be needed each year. And its not like they can keep the 60% of the career forces in Iraq for longer than a year; they have families and an appreciation for not getting blown up, just like the reservists. Finally, you have to realize at some point, the reservists contracts will have expired. Do you think they're going to re-up?
Contrary to what you may believe, you can't just roust up 100K bodies and ship them out to a combat zone. The US Armed Forces are an extremely well trained, technological fighting force. Traditionally, the first 6 months are spent in boot camp and basic combat training, and then another 6 months for a military specialization skill. Even if you cut that in half, its at least 6 months before you have productive cannon fodder. The answer is to draft those bodies before a potential crisis, so you have something useful for combat when you need them.
So, in two years, all the personnel that is the US Armed Forces will have done a tour of duty in Iraq. What reservist is going to agree to put his career on hold every other year so he can get shot at in the desert? And no, their job will waiting for him when he gets back. He'll just be canned six months later in a layoff. Most of them will not re-enlist. And a lot of regular army personnel won't either.
I laugh when I see the young conservative punks cheering for GWB and invading Iraq. In two years, they're going to be in boiling/freezing in a sand dune, assuming they're not shot/crippled/dead. The twentysomething punks will be safe. :o(
I'll close with this parting shot: your knowlege of economics is hideously flawed and appalling.
There is no America. There is no democracy. There is only IBM and AT&T and DuPont, Dow, General Electric, and Exxon
I've been telling my friends this very thing. However they don't even really need to have a single one. They just need to announce they have purchased a few from some rogue Soviet state who they won't name and these are on missiles currently pointed at a few major Chinese cities near the coast.
I used to date a girl from the mainland (China that is) and her Chinese friends didn't really care much about Taiwan however they all believed Tibet was THEIRS in the same way Indian people believe Kashmir should also be part of their country. While the government may need to keep up the rhetoric to save face no actions will probably ever come from it.
--- I do not moderate.
War, what war? Over here most Taiwanese are too busy shopping and complaining about their own cowboy trading on local stock markets to actually notice if china invaded. Most people accept that sooner or later something will happen, but as natural cowards and born capitalist, there is very little chance of Taiwan actually defending itself. Unless big bad US of Bush drops a few big ones on shanghai within an hour of a fleet of converted fishing boats heading out to Taiwan (which, given the mental stability of the man, is actually possible (scary)), the Taiwanese will happily surrender and begin a "one country three systems" negotiation that is probably already more advanced than anyone lets on.
Actually folks, China would be mad to do anything other than shout obscenities across the strait until after the election. Most Taiwanese, rightly or wrongly, blame the DPP for the present economic decline, and the independence rhetoric is basically a DPP election strategy. The KMT, china's old foe, looks set to sweep the DPP aside and then we can go back to a more traditional military junta/democracy that has existed here for many decades (and seems to be taking root elsewhere, if you know what I mean). China would be happy with that and it could tone down its rhetoric a notch for a few years while supplying more of its children to the Taiwanese businesses that proliferate along its coastline so that you can have your cheap toys across the placid lake.
Blacklisted until the liberals play fair.
Umm....
Maybe they're wanted back because the civilians weren't randomly imprisoned
Had power,
Police,
Water,
and Food?
A government by a tyrant is still better than living in fear from your neighbors and foreign soldiers.
Hey! come on! try dividing it by anything!
Let's not forget that the US is still involved in the Middle East. And, N. Korea still needs to be delt with. I don't think now is the right time for Taiwan to start officially claiming independance as it might end up needing US support in the name of freedom. When you think about it, I now understand what Bush ment when he said to Wen "Maintain the status quo".
In other words....Mr Chen, please...PLEASE shut your fucking pie hole for now. Our economy can't handle another war.
Life is not for the lazy.
Maybe outsourcing all those electronic engineering and manufacturing jobs offshore wasn't such a good idea after all...
Bruce Lane, KC7GR,
Blue Feather Technologies
I wonder if U.S. firms have thought about other instabilities such as the tension between India and Pakistan? If much of our capability to develop software is outsourced to India and all hell breaks loose, what happens to our tech industry then?
Sure, recent events between China and Taiwan have escalated recently, but it's not like affairs between the two countries have been all sunshine and light over the past half-century. Any company that is dependent upon trade from either country and is only worried *now* about hostilities erupting between the two nations should have done a little bit more homework on current events in the region before setting up shop. This is yet another of a long list of examples of how businesses can be myopic when it comes to any factor beyond "the bottom line".
wait, what planet is your iraq on?
Isn't avoiding unnecessary bloodshed a good enough reason anymore?
"Live Free Or Die; Death Is Not The Worst of Evils."
The big question question here: why haven't the wizards of Wall Street done their job and gotten it together that factors like this just couldn't sabotage the Computer industry or western economies? I think the financial types need to do more real work and less politicing.
Alea iacta est or "The die is cast." Attributed to Julius Caesar when he crossed the Rubicon and thereby initiated a civil war.
I'm more interested in how people in Taiwan feel about independence or unification, they should be the people that are questions about such things, as it is their decision if they want to be independent or not.
Asking people in mainland China if they support keeping Taiwan would be like asking people in England if they thought it'd be a good idea to hang on to the American Colonies or India while they had the chance.
What?
Mod parent (5, Insightful)!!!!!!
Die India!
I can't wait until the nukes go off and destroy the whole fucking planet. End the human race once and for all!
That's what I'm worried about. If war breaks out between China and Taiwan, it could be nuclear. Also, if we have Navy forces in their waters, China may also launch a few "low yeild" tactical nukes at our carriers as a message to the US to stay out of it's affairs.
Life is not for the lazy.
I hope taiwan never ever has an earthquake like some 8.0+ on the riecter scale, they may be taken advantage of "oh let us help you recover by not leaving after helping in the emergency " vulnerability in a national emergency ?? that would be chumpy..
Here is Portland the opinion of the political sages of radio station KBOO is that George Bush made a secret deal with the Chinese premier on his recent visit that:
The USA will not defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion of that country.
and, in return,
China will not defend North Korea in the event of an American invasion of that country.
As for give and take; your god's followers like to take a lot though.
So I read this entire thread and most of it is, China wont do it, or China thinks it will unite back up or blah blah blah. Um, what do the Taiwanese think about this? They do not like China. They are very happy being independient. I hate it when Chinese think that unification is great. Great for whom? Taiwanese dont want the unification to take place. Chinese are just being selfish and ignorant thinking that Taiwan should unify.
Unification is such a lovely word. But in reality it really means China takes over taiwan, forces its values and culture on it and turns it into another provence. Taiwan looses its culture, heritage and everything that made it special and different to those people that live there. Havent we already learned that imperalism does not work?
Ask any taiwanese where they are from and they will say Taiwan. THey will say they are Taiwansee. If you ask if theys peak chinese they say no, we speak Manderian. They dont say we are a rebel provence of China nor do they say we are People's Republic of China. They say they are Tawianese, and very proud of that. They do not want to go back to China.
HK is now very different now that China has taken it over. What you can do, what you can say, and what you can read is different. There are no elections really. It just does not feel the same. You are just a random city of China not some special port that you use to call your own. Taiwanese like there little island. It is not just about politcal strugle, but about individualism and ideals. You can start your own company, elect officials, etc, in Taiwan. Taiwanese feel that those rights will be stripped when they become part of China.
I read in one post about cycle and division and unification. Yeah, that may have worked 1000 years ago but welcome to the 21st century buddy. For a few thousand years china remaind the same basiclly but over the last 100 years it is compeletly different. There was no western powers, no internet, not globalization, it was just China and some bording countries. Now the planet is very very small. The cycle has been broken.
Taiwan will never join China. They will fight for there independence till the end.
First, let's ignore the fact that the US would do SOMETHING if China invaded. If we had a very very weak president that wouldn't mind the US going into riot, we might be able to avoid a war. Don't count on it though. There would at least be a harsh economic response, yes, even at the cost of the US (and as a result) the world economy. Don't underestimate the will of the US to preserve other Democratic nations. We might let a third world nation with a quasi democracy sink, but we don't let first world democracies sink without a fight. I think we would respond the same way we would have responded if the USSR had invaded Germany - send everything that isn't a nuke, and keep the nukes on standby. The US is absolutely ferocious when it comes to defending such interests and China would be foolish to think we would let an invasion fleet cross channel.
Second, even if the US did absolutely nothing, the economic effect would be chilling. All of Asia would be seen as unstable. Sure, our economy would become more insular, but it sure as shit wouldn't mean getting more jobs for everyone. The US economy went belly up in 1929 because of a series of tariffs were passed into law. This turned what might have just been a recession into the worst economic disaster in US history. Becoming insular is the death of the US economy. This day an age, we are a thousand times more dependent upon foreign trade then we were in 1929. We could make 1929 look like an up year with the sort of economic devastation that would result if we tried to create an insular economy.
Simply put, China will not invade Taiwan any time in the near future. The US would stop it, and the US stopping it would give China two options. China can choose military and economic destruction or it can choose total annihilation. China, for all of its faults, is ruled by rational leaders. They understand the consequences of invading Taiwan in the same way the Soviets understood the consequences of invading West Germany. US policy has always stated very clearly the lengths we are willing to go to protect nations such as Taiwan, and any president, Democrat or Republican would be more then willing to follow through with their obligation, even at the cost of both nations. It isn't a pretty prospect, which is exactly why it won't happen.
"Maybe they're wanted back because the civilians weren't randomly imprisoned"
That was a joke, right?
Say what you want of the US invasion, those people were -bad-. They killed millions of their own people. I don't care if you support the war or not. There are plenty of reasons for the US to not worry itself with other nations, but defending those people as offering stability is a joke, especially suggesting that those were someone 'just' rules.
Just like its worth killing millions of Arabs in the middle east to protect Isreal and the oil.
People don't exist to serve systems, systems exist to serve people.
Being for or against Iraq is not much of an issue anymore.
I just feel that we had much more important things to consider than taking down Saddam (like Korea).
Besides, he was one of Al quada's enemies for running a secular state.
As bad as Stalin was during his time, he was still our ally in WWII and I feel that we had bigger fish to fry.
Hey! come on! try dividing it by anything!
All those benefits you list of reunification would also come with a normalization of relations. Whether you call Taiwan independent or not, (a) it is and has been and (b) it's about time ROC and PRC acted towards each other as nations at peace. Taiwan won't agree to reunification until the mainland catches up economically, and an economically strong China would be a huge boost for Taiwan's economy. So both countries have interests in strengthening each other's economies and promoting trade and investment.
I agree with other posters here that we shouldn't need to invoke economics to justify peace, but if economics prevent a war, more power to them.
Gates' Law: Every 18 months, the speed of software halves.
Oh wait, that didn't quite work out like you said it should have, did it?
I blame the Liberals.
Taiwan does not have nukes.
They were developing material for nuclear weapons as late as 1988, but the CIA got word of it thanks to a mole (who left Taiwan with binders of documentation). Pressure from the U.S. ensued, Chiang Ching-Kuo's regime then came clean and gave up the program. The facility in which clandestine nuclear research was carried out is today a large concrete block.
Your logic is very flawed. If the US is not willing to carry out their threat, why would China not simply invade? How long would it take for China to build an invasion fleet big enough to get the job done? A couple of years at the most. The reason why they don't bother is because the US stands firmly in their way.
China will not "NUKE THE HELL OUT OF THE US" because the US would NUKE THE HELL OUT OF CHINA. Everyone realizes that the consequence of firing a nuke is getting a nuke shoved back in your direction. In this case, that would be a much worse thing for China then the US. Most of China's nukes can't even reach the US. Don't get me wrong, the damage would be horrific, but nothing compared to what the US would do in response. The US would be devastated. They would be utterly and totally destroyed. The US would some day recover as perhaps a shadow of our former nation, they would not. Getting into a game of nuclear holocaust with the US is a very stupid idea because in the end you loose. Period. Every US city could be flatted, but that just means everything higher then a few meters if flattened in China. The US just recently reaffirmed that the consequence of using a WMD on the US is getting a WMD thrown back in your face and then some.
Taiwan is considered US protected property. The US have made it clear in both words and in law that Taiwan is under US protection. The rhetoric Bush is using against Taiwan right now is just that, rhetoric. Bush doesn't want to fight China, but like ANY American president, Republican or Democrat, he will fight China if he has to protect Taiwan. Being a mildly rational person (or at least having some rational advisors) he is going to go out of his way to avoid fighting China. That isn't to say he wouldn't if he had to, but if the cost of keeping China from going after Taiwan are a few harsh words to Taiwan, he will certainly do it. That doesn't change the fact that at the end of the day there will always be a couple of US carrier battle groups sitting between main land China and Taiwan.
The US, for all of its flaws, are extremely principled to the point of near insanity when it comes to this point. The US has threatened in the past and would to this day destroy the world before it let a free first world democracy fall to a communist nation. It is one thing to fight over a third world nation like Vietnam or even Korea (Korea was third world at the time). It is another to let a nation like German, France (as much as the US picks on them now), Japan, South Korea (today), or Taiwan fall. The US might let one of those nations fall in an internal civil war, but never to an outside threat. The US considers Taiwan sovereign enough where fighting China wouldn't be a civil war in the US's eyes.
Saw what you will on the US, on this one issue they are principled to the point of insane fanaticism that makes Islamic terrorist look like sane and rational people. The US would defend Taiwan in an instant from China, and the US wouldn't think twice about respond to any nuclear attack from China with their own. In other words, the US would risk absolute destruction of all parties involved (themselves included) then let a nation like Taiwan fall to a nation like China. The US was more then willing to do it during the cold war and I have no doubt they would do it again.
Just move plants back to USA or declare Taiwan another state or property of USA.
Or just buy from Korea...or Japan... or the rest of the freaking world. Rising memory prices could actually good for struggling memory manufacturers. It would give them an excuse to bump up the price and actually make some real money for a change.
You make a good point. What does Taiwanese think? Do they want to unification or independent? According to the poll, vast majority of them wants to maintain the current staus quo. It's comfortable and stable. Either unification or independency will bring too much uncertainty to the table.
What we should be discussing is how far a politician like Chen is willing to go for a second term. The so-called "defensive" referrendum has no meaning. Anyone would vote on not having 400 missile pointing at my backyard. Does that really accomplish anything?
Chen is doing anything in his power to try to win the election and cover his incompetency as a leader. The econemy is sliding and future of Taiwan is uncertain. He has neither the intelligence nor the courage to face this problem head on. The tricky part of the question involving how to deal with China appropriately. To leverage China to advance Taiwan's econemy.
However, Chen as a politician who win on the ground of racial/ethinic divid in Taiwan can not go for that route. Start to getting close to China will make his more aggressive supporters turn their back on him and he's not likely to win the votes from the opposite side.
The only strategy for Chen is going to piss China into threating Taiwan so he could win the second term. However, this is dangerous for the people and it's dangerous for the stability.
Most of Taiwanese I talked to think Chen is just a show and do not take him seriously. However, the attitudes make the manner even worth. While we are worrying about a potential war between China and Taiwan, the people in Taiwan just ignore Chen and go on with their daily business. Without domestic pressure and international oversight, Chen could carry this too far and bring the two to the verge of war. Taiwanese will wake up with missles showering on their head and still don't figure out what happened.
In the recent poll, 58% of the people want to maintain the status quo. 22% hope for indpendent but only 5.9% wants independency at any cost.
It appears that Taiwan is indeed in the factbook, at the bottom right below Zimbawabe. It has the distinction of being the only entry not in alphabetical order. ... I just hope it had always been there, as opposed to being added as a result of a /. comment.
The 'always splits then reunites after a dynasty' bit is as much baloney as religion myths or eating tiger cock. It'd be funny as hell if someone suggest eating spincters to prevent colon cancer, I bet the chinese would dive right in.
Jesus man keep up with the times.
oh cmon a survey in a totalitarian regime means nothing
My apology for posting as AC 'cause I am usually a passive reader with no slashdot account
1. economic reasons. can effect a temporary alternative. However, a culture/race/social/political system/opinions cannot be radically changed/uprooted easily, especially for China with thousands years of history.
2. China's history is full of epic events where they defends their lands to death against foreign
invasions, and subsequent attempt to regain it. (epic by chinese standard, ymmv due to cultural views) go read chinese historical records/books/literature written by ancient chinese, not thosed simplified by foreigners)
3. China's history is also full of events where the country was split into multiple blocks, either due to civil wars or foreigne invasions. Read the history critically here, while there were dump-ass kings or emperors sometimes savouring their comfortable life in their small corner, others from the same rank will eventually find ways to reunify the country, sometimes, unfortunately, at the expense of those other kings/rulers who were interested only in enjoying their own life and nothing else.
4. Idealogy changes in China is not unusual. You must understand China has gone through sveral thousand years from great empire to ruins/laughing stocks of the world, then back to stength again MULTIPLE times. People/ideas come and go, chinese people learn to adapt to survive(they have to, technically, if you count on per year basis for the entire recordable ancient China history, there's only a small amount of time where the territory was completely peaceful. (civil wars or foreign invasions/rebellion/misc)
5. In general, Westerner is a sea-faring culture origin. New changes are common charecteristics and subconciously part of their culture Chinese is a Land-based culture origin. In summary, the land and everything it symbolize is sacred.
6. China leaders can compromise on a lot of things/ideals, the one thing they cannot compromise is Land. They will forever remember 5 thousands years of history about those who gave it up, and those who will eventually reunify it.
7. For slashdot general info, historically, this is not the first time certain parts of China was split due to civil wars/foreign invasion.
That in fact is the reason that this year is believed to be worse then others. America can't just jump in and swear to protect Taiwan, it needs china. Not the other way around.
MMO Quests are like orgasms:
You may solo them, I prefer them in a group.
Jeezus I suppose I shouldn't be suprised finding this kinda post on /. . It is well known that germany used this tactic to force surrender. Either give in or our airforce will whipe you out.
In the east japan did the same thing. The bombing of shanghia in I believe 1937 was the delibarate bombing of a purely civilian target to force surrender or fact destruction.
Bombing of cities was done as soon as it was possible. Even WW1 saw it just on a very small scale. The only exception was that the germans did indeed not bomb London city itself on purpose. They still hoped that england could be convinced to surrender peacefully. Hitler knew that bombing london would mean total war with england as he did not have the capacity to put ground forces in.
MMO Quests are like orgasms:
You may solo them, I prefer them in a group.
Bullpucky. Those few islands were a lot smaller and closer to the mainland than to Taiwan, there were no hostile forces shooting back, and the excellent Chinese military still fucked up so badly that some of the invasion force starved to death because they couldn't get supplies to them! Most military analysts concluded that China was nowhere near being able to take on Taiwan.
An interesting analysis: http://www.everything2.com/index.pl?node_id=589046
Cheers,
-j.
Portugual had been trying to give Macau back to China since at least the late 1960's, but China didn't want it. Portugual didn't know how to run Macau, and there was rampant corruption.
Post-handover, the economy is booming, there's lots of new development, and the streets are safer. That's pretty important to me.
-- stephenc
Ya, so do Hawaii and Alaska.
They don't belong to United States, right?
US is going to back Taiwan. Perhaps.
;-)
But perhaps not. "What Taiwan, that Chinese province?" I think Bush just sold US non-involvement in China reunification, for China's help to keep to US dollar from collapsing, at least a little longer. I think the same fate awaits South Korea. After the US' defeat in both Afghanistan and Iraq, and wich the deep crunching noises being heard in the US economic superstructure, I would worry if I were Taiwanese... Taiwanese Chinese, I mean!
``L'imagination au povoir.''
The economic growth from war is an illusion. War creates income by destroying wealth, with people's lives as collateral damage. It's like earning money by buying $100 worth of junk with a $50 cash rebate.
It's good to see that on both sides only a small minority belongs to the irrational extremist camp.
Talk about the possible war not being limited to the Taiwan strait area:
Has anybody else noticed that China has more "historical claim" on Korea than they do on Taiwan? Same is true of Vietnam and Mongolia... Taiwan on the other hand was Dutch property for a century before any Chinese authority laid any claim to it.
China's previous dynasty even thought they owned everything from Assam to Singapore to the Sulus to the Amur rivermouth. I have a gorgeous Jpeg map from a '50s Chinese school textbook, that I unfortunately havent seen posted online anywhere, showing those claims. It was a couple decades into the Commie era before they signed a few treaties saying they would temporarily forget about some of those claims on their neighbors!
So who honestly thinks modern, imperialistic China is going to stop at taking Taiwan?? Why should Hyundai be happy?
Quadrupled RAM prices circa 2001 due to lost time and a damaged packaging factory.
Bush has unequivocally stated that he supports the status quo. If China invades Taiwan, Bush will strenuously object, but will eventually say that its an internal matter and they won't get involved. The US needs China too much.
DOn't get too excited about the US loving democracy and Bush being forced to save the oppressed. There's a shit-load of countriws with oppressed people that the US couldn't give a monkjeys about. Pick a West African nation. Hell - remember Afghanistan? The US needs China more than it needs Taiwan. And it can't do anything to stop China. And it has unequivocally stated that it does not support Taiwan's referendum (on independence) and that it supports the status quo (ie Taiwan "arguably" under Chinese control / rule.)