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Larry Page's Vision of the Future
adamjh writes "Yesterday, Google co-founder Larry Page gave an amazing talk to the 2005 graduating class of the University of Michigan College of Engineering. In true geek form, I made sure to record Larry's entire speech on my mobile phone in order to share with the Slashdot community a rare glimpse into Larry's thoughts on the past, present, and future -- on topics ranging from dropping out of Stanford to start Google to "Thinking Big" and the abundance of venture capital to traveling to Mars, curing world hunger, and well, much much more."
Funny enough, you blogged a speech by Larry Page it on Blogspot. Of all the blogsites....
Well- seems he dropped out of Stanford. Seems all the successful CEOs drop out- Gates, Ellsion, and Page. Seems all the people he was preaching to are already doomed to be losers.
Much appreciated JBleau@gmail.com Take care! PS: Mod Parent Up
Do you find peace and comfort predicting the downfall of modern society? You'll just grow old and be a miserable loser while everyone else is fucking in their private space station.
Well damn... I gues it is time to invest in that oxen farm......
From one geek to another: Thanks!
Dashboard Widgets
Hello helpful person!
Could you please email 2 copies to me - one is for my cousin.
THANKS IN ADVANCE!
I'll wait a few hours before hitting that link, but man, I wish there were a textual transcript of the same, because that would be easier to analyze, quote, and reference.
C17H21NO4
Hey thanks! Please send it to funkyrat NOSPAM at gmail.com
Someone's vision for the future next to the story about the time travellers' convention.
I thought gmail didn't allow public addresses under 6 characters?
liqbase
It seems that Mr. Paige has gone on a philonthropic course lately (not that that's a bad thing). At the FIRST robotics competition in Atlanta, he made a 15 minute long speech with some great messages (although I thought his delivery was sub-par). Among them, he pledged money from www.google.org to FIRST. He is very inspiring. Larry, from FIRST to you, thanks. -Daniel
Hmmm .. at least someone shares my interest in Consumption Junction. For those who are wondering what the heck I'm talking about, check out this guy's blog title.
You dumbasss! Is this spam me if you can or what?
( 2b || !2b)
You blog is on Blogger...which is owned by Google. Looks like Google owns YOU!
The name calling was unneccasary, but my response is only: Google's spam filter works quite nicely.
Please send to black2d at gmail.com Thank you
I know I'm sounding like a broken record, but while Peak Oil is likely to happen, it will NOT prevent the stuff he is talking about, it will delay it.
Middle Ages are a thing of the past. You need to get rid of ALL SCIENCE, of all technical achievements, of all cultural changes, reinstall the church as the supreme power....
While it is wise to take Peak Oil seriously, doomsaying won't help anyone. Oh yes, a crisis is likely, it will result in drastic cuts in energy until alternative energy sources are fully installed. When fusion power becomes feasible, we're back on track again.
This sig does not contain any SCO code.
Troll alert! Troll alert! Put on your mod-parent-troll shields!
Apply s/rogers\.com/gmail.com/ to my account's email address.
Thanks!
Heh, I have a GMail account too...doesn't mean I worship everything Google does though, as Slashdot seems to do now. It seriously is becoming a site for Google and Apple fanboys, and very little else. The only reason I'm still here is because I'm thoroughly addicted to this place :)
:)
And of course, Taco/Timothy/Neal etc don't listen to what the users of Slashdot actually want...I'm fairly sure daily Google updates is fairly low on most peoples' list of priorities
By summer it was all gone...now shesmovedon. --
Haha, flamebait...cool.
Don't see many flames, do you?
By summer it was all gone...now shesmovedon. --
I couldn't agree with Page more ..
larry page: "I know a lot of you are planning on going to business school, but I don't think you need to go to business schoool"
larry page: "I just read a bookshelf of business books"
From a man worth 7 billion dollars, it sure seems to me like his statement on how to run a business is pretty reputable.
want to write a transcript of the message for us... ...please :)
theducknamedhuey at gmail.com
"Jesus guys, you may as well change it to "Googledot: Google google Googles. Google google googles." Every single day another story about how absolutely marvellous Google is and how they're going to make the whole Internet better and they're doing it all out of the kindness of their hearts."
It's a pleasant change from "Microsoft does everything wrong" and "here's our 303rd story about how SCO hasn't produced any evidence." stories that perpetually orbited Slashdot.
It's not that I disagree with you, but Slashdot always has a fad to chase. I remember when every week it was headline news that Mozilla incremented the version number.
"Derp de derp."
Parent poster has a long history of lying, telling ridiculous stories and otherwise karma whoring. I bet you 100 dollars to 1 donut he doesnt have the file.
Check out, for example, http://slashdot.org/~Amsterdam%20Vallon. Note the 11 "-1 Troll" posts in a row.
If we don't have anyone that can handle mirroring it can we set up a torrent? I don't think gmail will allow > 10 mb files.
I rarely criticize things I don't care about.
I found it pretty underwhelming. Page is not a great speaker he's a geek. There were several ums and 4-second awkward pauses, unlike the other speeches (by students and others). He fumbled with words at times and it seemed he had barely rehearsed. And the content was nothing fantastic. "Take risks, space flight is cool [cheers from aero majors], my parents met in a coop, how many of you would work for Google if we opened an Ann Arbor office, blah." It was nice, somewhat encouraging but to me, his manner of speaking made the whole thing fall flat. He gave not pearls of wisdom, but offhand comments on fun bits of tech.
In your user preferences, you can choose which topics you don't want to see on the front page. You can block Google stories on the front page alltogether if you want.
That would be awesome. It looks like the mp3 copies have already been slashdotted and are unavailable.
jtd@starNOSPAMkruzr.com
+++ATH0
You work with Larry Page but have a Yahoo! address? THAT'S TREASON, MAN!!
No. You can't. If you look in your user prefs, you'll notice that that option has miraculously disappeared. you can now only block by section.
By summer it was all gone...now shesmovedon. --
Great; I'll join the ranks and prefer ogg anyways. Thanks in advance.
.ian. /AT/ .ianbmacdonald.com.
Hit me at
weasel@almostsmart.com thanks.
http://almostsmart.com
What a useless use of even more bandwidth. Instead of trolling for emails, and/or letting other people insert their own email, so spammers can get it, it would be much more useful for everyone if a torrent was posted.
BitTorrent was designed for this sort of thing. Email was not.
Really "all" we have to do is move the energy economy away from petroleum. If we make the right investments now, we'll be okay with a minimum of pain.
+++ATH0
khurrum1@gmail.com thank you :)
Thank you for your kind comments regarding my post. Would you care to elaborate as to what was wrong with it?
By summer it was all gone...now shesmovedon. --
Ian.C.Rae@gmail.com
find me at haszak.org
chase dot venters at gmail dot com. Thanks!
Listen, you heretic, your day of reckoning will come. Don't you know thou art a subject of the divine, created in the image of The Google, by The Google, for The Google? Let us be thankful we have Google. Google more. Google more now. Google. And be happy. Remember, you have nowhere to go. Google is here to protect you.
"Who are in control, they are not in control of anything - they don't even control themselves!" - Glen Beck
no bacon at gmail shizd0t com
serenity now!
dust3r~gmail;com
you are the man, thank you
This sig is false.
Its not slashdots fault this time!
Its his fault, ha gave the EXACT SAME SPEECH at the first robotics nationals in georgia
begossi at gmail dot com thx a lot AV!
Friend of the Wise, Brother of the Brave.
I thought "bobNOSPAM" is 9 characters? :D
I dont get the big hype of vorbis files that have been transcoded from mp3, quality doesnt magically appear.
Hey, can someone who's downloaded the file post a torrent of the file for those of us who don't have it yet? - Xierox
Xierox
pydronNOSPAM@charter[[[.]]]net
jacob_briggs@paradise.net.nz
:)
Thanks heaps
Google is one of the few market-changing forces in computer tech these days. There's a reason you read a lot about Google, Microsoft, Apple, Yahoo, AMD, Intel, etc. on Slashdot. It's because these are the companies that are changing the way other companies do business, and in turn how we all work and play.
Because you didn't include any sort of solution to what you see as an overabundance of stories about Google, I'm curious: What specific types of stories would you like to see?
Read the EFF's Fair Use FAQ
please send to germio at gmail dot com. thanks for the effort!
You make light of the problem: fusion is expensive in terms of money and especially time (we have 50 year projections, assuming we build a giant fussion test plant right now, followed by actual usuable plants (if nothing goes wrong at all)...maybe). What makes you think we have enough energy reserves as it is to bridge the gap? And what makes you assume that fusion is the end of the need for oil?
-- Waht? Tehr's a preveiw buottn?
billg AT microsoft.com
I LOVE LARRY!!!! ^o^ XD
e-mail jtrav03 at gmail dot com. Thanks.
Here
Please don't link to the file directly. Gracias.
What is humor if not pain tempered by time?
Dropping out of his PH.D? *GASP*! What with only a pathetic Masters, how could he have made it?
Sarcasm aside, his leaving the academic world doesn't supprise me. Given that a PH.D won't expand practical knowledge of Computer Science as a Bachelors and Masters would, I would of done the same thing. He didn't take a chance, he just came to his senses.
mp3 and wav files moved to University webspace -- should be able to withstand the /.ing.
cheers.
chester.millisock@houghton.edu
MOD PARENT UP, works great. Also, set up a torrent
. mp3.torrent
here (if you're into that stuff):
http://notespace.org/Larry_Page-Graduation_Speech
What are the odds that some idiot will name his mutex ether-rot-mutex!
The IEA has recently shifted its peak forecast date from 2035, to a vague 2015-2024. This is particularly significant, as the IEA's forecasts have traditionally been rather optimistic. There are a number of geologists that are suggesting we have hit global peak production now, or that we will in the very near future i.e. 2005-2007. If that is the case, we do not have enough time to replace our existing energy infrastructure. We also currently do not have a source of liquid fuel with the ERoEI of petroleum. Rather than being complacent in the hopes that future technologies will replace oil, we should be doing everything possible to reduce our consumption.
We will not be regressing to medieval civilisation, but life as we all know it will change irrevocably.
Get ready for some interesting times.
I would like the file in mp3 please alfrin at gmail . com
http://www.robinsloan.com/epic/
For those who dont want to see the flash movie, here goes the text: (some content is omitted near the end, so I would recommend to see the flash movie)
* * * *
nothingisreal at gmail dot com -thanks
Excellent. I shall seed overnight at least.
I rarely criticize things I don't care about.
a first post worth something. if it wasn't for posting i would mod him up. please people show him some love. anywho thanks a lot man, i'll take a copy ala mp3 since ogg still doesn't work in iTunes. unknown(dot)root(at)gmail(dot)com
Force of Will = Glue 'nuff said.
I think you just asked for a LOT more than an mp3.
I give Page and Brin kudos for pagerank, but frankly I don't think he knows anything about space travel and even less about solving world hunger, although if he were to start, he could sign over all his shares in GOOG to a feed-the-children charity, which I doubt he will do (talk's cheap, Larry).
fookin AT gmail DOT com Thanks!
any one where you can stick a memory card in
Peak oil will happen, but fusion isn't going to help us. We're generations away from commercial fusion power.
Fission is the only thing that is ready and available to step up, along with a few other things like coal gassification.
I rarely criticize things I don't care about.
*bangs head on desk at another fucking Google cocksucking story on Slashdot*
lol!
I'm doing that now with every web page I see that has been infected by Google Ads.
This kind:
m da-iii.html
:-)
http://www.digit-life.com/articles2/pda/t-mobile-
I'd like one, please.
Once oil goes over something like $100.00/barrel it becomes cost efficient to refine shale oil, which we have loads and loads of. Not to mention geological surveys that point to the Gulf of Mexico having more oil than the Saudis ever could dream of. It costs more to get at this oil, but as the cost/barrel rises, it become efficient to drill this and refine it. So in this regard, America is in fact in a great future position in regards to oil as a primary source of power. However, I would agree we should reduce our consumption if possible and seek other methods for generating power. Oil rising to a high price is probably the natural way to make people consume less.
"If you are a dreamer, a wisher, a liar, A hope-er, a pray-er, a magic bean buyer
It seriously is becoming a site for Google and Apple fanboys
I'm tired of it too -- where's the site for fans of MSN and Emachines?
Moneyed corporations, non-working 'poor' and criminal prisoners are turning productive citizens into tax-slaves.
thanks -- please add me (as anadem@gmail.com) to your ogg sending
simple: if you have fusion why in the hell do you want to burn oil for?
According to Walter Youngquist, shale oil is a net loser i.e. it takes more energy to produce shale oil than is recovered from the shale oil/kerogen. It's not a question of economics. This is also the case with oil sands.
wow, you have a lot of nerve sitting there with your Googleportal hooked to the GoogleNet trashing Google like that
If that is the case, we do not have enough time to replace our existing energy infrastructure. Enough time - for what? You sound as if after a certain timespan there is no chance to ever again be able to create something like a generator. This will *not* be the case. I live in Austria, however, where 2/3rd of all power is gained by hydroelectric plants, and the remaining 1/3rd from caloric plants and renewable energies. I don't know how the United States gets its electricity, but AFAIK in Europe *electricity* won't be the main problem. The big issue is transportation. Currently there is no battery with enough energy density capable of replacing oil. Also, batteries are not that reliable, and can't store electricity for a long amount of time. Hydrogen could be a potential replacement, but right now its too insecure and expensive. I expect Peak Oil to be a big, BIG economical hit, leading to a massive world-wide crisis. But then people will start building solar cells, fission plants etc. Slowly at first, but there is nothing making the production of solar cells *impossible*. AFAIK there is no oil needed in the production of the latest solar cell types. And even if there is one: a) Peak Oil means the end of *CHEAP* oil, not the end of all Oil. Which leads to b) thermal depolymerization (for gaining it as a resource for other materials, NOT for transportation!), which is too expensive *right now*, but would be a net gain then (get the power from solar cells). Of course there would be a rather slow oil production at first, but in the meantime, society could - slowly - rebuild, and research could be done in fusion, renewable energies, and better thermal depolymerization. As for plastics, there are several ways to grow plastics with algae, and I even read about a way how to get plastics from orange peel and CO2. The part that's left is mostly medicines like aspirine (which needs oil directly as a resource). Thermal depolymerization would address this issue. Still, transportation remains. Well, we'll have to wait until somebody gets those hydrogen tanks right. It is not that research will be *impossible*. It will just take longer. So, relax.
This sig does not contain any SCO code.
What makes you think we have enough energy reserves as it is to bridge the gap?
I can always build some crude generator working with hydroelectric power. Just stick it into a river.
Then you have some electric power, you can power machines to build a better hydroelectric plant etc. Until you get nice hydroelectric plants. Then you can connect a thermal depolymerization facility, or a factory for solar cells. Then use the solar cells for yet more power etc.
Electricity has been around well *before* the age of oil. In fact, industralization began before the age of oil. So no middle age scenario here. And no perpetual doom either, since an electricity grid can be achieved without any oil.
We need something for the cars, though. Oh well, in Europe many trains have electrical engines, so maybe we would see a revival of the train. That is, until someone finds a way how to stuff a lot of energy in a battery or in a H2 tank (without being so unstable that it could blow up).
This sig does not contain any SCO code.
But what did we use before oil? Coal (and the like), which at the time wasn't the most cleanly burning fuel.
Anyway, how exactly are you going to build all that you're proposing to build? How are you gonna power the transportation needed? What's gonna power the crane you need?
-- Waht? Tehr's a preveiw buottn?
It is actually quite interesting. In the US no dogmatic belief has firmly established itself fully because there are dozens of other sects trying to do the same (Scientology for example). In Europe, this isn't possible either, but because the catholic church still has considerable power and privileges. While they are far from being the ultra-totalitary cruel governor it was in the middle ages, the catholic church still gets loads of money by convenient church-taxes only they get (!) no other religion gets income from taxes - this tax exists at least in Austria and Germany, i don't know about other countries.
This sig does not contain any SCO code.
We're not talking about electricty or the grid, but liquid fuels. Conventional oil isn't typically used to generate electricty. The energy infrastructure I was referring to was - oil refineries, oil distribution, petrol stations. Hypothetically, if we found an effecient way to produce hydrogen, with a positive ERoEI, making the transition would take decades. If peak oil geologists are correct, we do not have decades.
The oil crisis of the 70s, which was the result of an artifical shortage, was caused by a 5% drop in production. One we have reached the point of global decline, production will drop by 3-7% every year. Where will that leave us 5 years after decline?
You can build the first generator yourself, or using coals. Small, humble beginnings. We don't need oil for that.
Then we can power machines with electricity to build better plants etc. The obvious disavantage is the lack of speed here, but it would be a way out.
This sig does not contain any SCO code.
The first form of viable power-generating fussion will most likely be not-so-portable. And you might need oil for a number of other reasons, like plastics and medicine, not to mention tens of thousands of other chemicals which you can'yt produce without oil.
-- Waht? Tehr's a preveiw buottn?
yeah i just graduated from EE, heard the speech, and i can honestaly say... you are right. there are slim pickins at michigan. but there is the rare polished stone amongst the coal.
gta
-=gabe2=- macbook dual 2.0
Yes, transportation is the real problem. I agree with that. The oil crisis of the 70s, which was the result of an artifical shortage, was caused by a 5% drop in production. One we have reached the point of global decline, production will drop by 3-7% every year. Where will that leave us 5 years after decline? The old infrastructure will most likely crash. After that, we have to rebuild everything. Not pleasant, but it is the way out. As I mentioned before, you can build crude plants, or use still standing ones, and power machines to create better plants etc. Once you reach a certain power output, connect a solar cell factory to it etc.
This sig does not contain any SCO code.
And I can remember when it was 'They are close to having a press release ready at Transmeta.'
Comes around, goes around, etc.
You should watch startup.com. It's a good movie, and it shows why having even an inexperienced MBA is necessary for survival if the rest of the people on the team are just engineers.
ranger, army, beau, etc...
Perhaps you are referring to a "crisis" as something as mild as what happened in the 70s when oil suddently became 3x as more expensive overnight. Oil was still available, it was just suddently not quite as cheap as before.
Now imagine that oil became suddenly 3x as expensive as it is now within the next 12 months. Would it be fun ? Is it impossible ?
This is not the worst that could happen. To bring us back to the middle ages would only take a small nuclear war. How does nuclear war between China and the US over oil sound to you ? Impossible again ? Within 20 years time China will be consuming as much oil as the US is consuming today.
One can only assume that China will have as aggressive a policy then as the US has now. I can't imagine things will go down smoothly.
Oil at $100 a barrel doesn't just mean that filling up your car is more expensive. Everything depends on oil, including growing and transporting your food.
The whole capitalist system is mostly a pyramid scheme that depends on growth. Expensive everything means less growth, more unemployment and potentially a nasty negative spiral when debt repaiments are not met, at the level of a whole country.
It can be very nasty. We will not run out of oil or out of oil replacements, this is not the problem.
arnorhs@gmail.com
I would very much like a copy of Larry's speech. ogg is fine!
Thanx beforehand!
No, for the middle ages to come again you need: a total devastation (nuclear war), total eradication of all cultural and social advances (like, human rights), complete and utter eradication of science, complete reinstallation of some dogmatic church as the center of power, total destruction of any technological advancements (even as simple as a canal system - in the middle ages there was no canal system) etc. So it is a little more difficult. The aftermath would be more likely a cuban- or south america-like scenario.
I don't like the situation either. No, I wasnt referring to a mild crisis with only 3x increase. Actually, I was thinking it from the worst case - have an infrastructure with little to no oil. Transportation would collapse, but my main concern was water and electricity, and you don't need oil for either of these. Take Austria for example, 2/3rd of the produced electricity is gained with hydroelectric plants. For the middle ages to come back, you need people to forget about electricity as well. As someone posted before, you can get a generator to work with steam.
The scenario I was referring to was a world after a total collapse, slowly rebuilding things like electricity and infrastructure. This was not the case in the 70ies.
This sig does not contain any SCO code.
Right here. ;)
By summer it was all gone...now shesmovedon. --
No It's a question of physics. Oil sands take about 2 barrels of oil to make 3 barrels of oil. so you're gaining oil. The more difficult it becomes to get to the sand the more oil required to get it out. My understanding of oil shale is it's much closer to a 1-1 ratio or a net lose in energy then the tar sands. Same goes for that ultra deep water oil. It's not a question of money it's a question of the energy required to get it out.
Peter Drucker
It's "/.++ ", but you can't log in right now, it's being virusscanned and then rebooted. They tout 5 9's availability: .99999% available!
. .
Once oil goes over something like $100.00/barrel it becomes cost efficient to refine shale oil,
Not if oil prices drive general inflation.
Although it is not a solitary inflationary driver, 1973 comes to mind, as does the double digit inflation that followed.
I do not have sufficient handle on the "import capital, export labor" model that some moot as a reason for continued low dollar interest rates, but dollar supply inflation is a common byproduct of both now and the (mid to late) 70's.
Though it's now widely appreciated that dollar money supply was inflated by policy in the 70's, so that the suddenly important "petrodollar" (value of dollar in Arabian reserve terms) would be 1. deflated due to supply 2. have to pass through the Federal Reserve and so back into the US banking system in any event, i do not wish to guess if there is an comparable policy today.
Anyone looking for a non academic view of this might read "Wriston" the bio of Walt Wriston, then chairman of Citibank. In there you have many anecdotal takes on how Citi expanded it's huge overseas network in lock - step with petrodollar recycling policy. I would even say that bio is fun - as it has enough interview material to cover the development of Citi in a very human, almost soap - opera style, whilst being very high on content. (I found myself re-reading individual *pages* to catch the significance of board - member quotes, e.g.)
As i'm interested recently in micro- not macro- economics, please forgive my lack of position on the issues i raised.
See how rich those poor little shoe-mending lads are in third world countries, they would love to high school in your place. You should be thankful for what you have
My last sig was ridiculed
Not to mention about a bazillion bearings which still crave oil.
If there's enough energy available, we can assemble something resembling current liquid fuels from whatever is handy. I'd rather have batteries or H2 but we don't *have* to give up liquid hydrocarbons if that's the most practical bridge to the future, so long as we have some way of collecting or liberating enough energy to run the process.
It might be inefficient, but nobody ever cared much about the efficiency of a wood fire when he was wet and cold.
i cried when i read aneutronic fusion is unworkable.
goes to show, no magic bullets.
fusion energy will be ready when mankind needs it - Lev Artsimovich
---
[These are surely not the original words, but the message. I can't find a good online reference now.]
well you can transmit power via electicity. and then you can charge up batterys with it. batterys are transportable.
(mod parent up)
Free Manning, jail Obama.
an especially interesting quote from the end of the speech:
there was a lot more, but that was the punchline. google's motto is "do no evil", and their mission is to make all of the information in the world easily accessable. that's pretty cool. they have always wanted to digitize existing libraries of books, but it has taken ten years to convince people it was possible. he also talked about nanotechnology, and encouraged the idea of ending world poverty. google devotes 70 percent of their resources to the search engine, 20 percent to related technologies, and 10 percent to other unrelated projects. current revenues are over one billion dollars per quarter, so they are spending over a million dollars a day on projects completely un-related to search, in a culture the encourages taking risks and having a healthy disregard for the impossible. it boggles the mind what the future may bring forth from google.
regards,
michael.
full transcript is posted here
http://slashdot.org/comments.pl?sid=148012&cid=12
Please e-mail jtrav03@gmail.com
I remember using Zaptor?
I believe the program Larry Page was referring to is Zephyr messing service. People could use use zlocate and ytalk to find and talk to their fellow students logged onto the unix mostly Sun and HP workstations in those days at Michigan.
Marisa Coleman
President of the University of Michigan is Mary Sue Coleman.
Dean director
This confuses many people, so its understandable. The College of Engineering's dean is Steve Director leaving this summer '05. So his name is Director, not director as a position.