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Blu-ray Gone In Five Years, Samsung Claims
schliz writes "Samsung expects Sony's Blu-ray technology to be superseded within five years, despite winning the high-definition format war in February." Maybe that means five years from now will be the perfect time to stock up on cheap Blu-ray disks and equipment.
Does that mean the PS3 isn't future proof?
The article starts out saying Blu-Ray will be superseded within 5 years and then goes on to talk about OLED technology with absolutely no mention of what might supersede blu-ray?
That's what I get for actually RTFA though; a few paragraphs loosely related with no actual technical information.
"Stupid article, OLED is a display technology, blu-ray is a storage technology. They are not rivals, but co-exist. Meaningless rubbish article on Pocket-lint, obviously not examined here by anyone with any AV knowledge."
"Does he think that OLED is going to replace BD as a storage medium?I fail to see how that is even possible considering one is a TV and another is a disc format and video player. Idiot shouldn't be allowed to speak anymore, doesn't know what h is talking about"
"...why would Blu-ray be incompatible with OLED? how is a new type of screen gonna change anything? might look better, brighter.. but....how does that effect anything?"
"OLED is going to take over from LCD as a display technology, and that will spell then end of BlueRay data storage? wtf?"
And, finally, this gem:
"It is the mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain a thought without accepting it."
Maybe he's right, and BluRay will be gone in 5 years, but he's clearly smoking something.
The article says that BluRay is going to be huge for a while, but in the long term Samsung is backing OLED displays.
WTF?
Blu-ray has remained very expensive; if Sony can't get more market penetration - and fast - there won't be any resistance to the introduction of newer technology. Winning the war against HD-DVD will have been a Pyrrhic victory.
The guy basically says that the Blu-Ray format will be huge, this year. He then goes on to say how it will rapidly become obsolete.
Great way to, er, halt sales in their tracks.
"Be light, stinging, insolent and melancholy"
Ok, everybody just stop buying now; wait for five years to see the new technology and then pay a premium to be the first.
This is pretty ridiculous, isn't it? I mean sure, a new technology will come along... a new technology came along and superceded video tapes, too, but they still exist!
Stating that the technology will just be "gone" is ridiculous.
Stupid sexy Flanders.
And we all know, because we're moving up the spectrum, the frequency is decreasing. Therefore, products will come out quicker!
Jeeze!
If a technology doesn't last more than four or five years, why bother? Regular DVD works perfectly well -- I don't particularly want to see James Coburn's pores, thank you -- and is now cheap and ubiquitous.
I piss off bigots.
...downgrade to standard definition retinas and just stick with DVD.
Gentoo Linux - another day, another USE flag.
Between being "superseded" and "universally adopted".
Technically, Blu-ray has already superseded DVD in many, many aspects. But Blu-ray now still has very little adoption. What really matters is not whether Blu-ray will be (technologically) superseded, but the cost-benefit of the technology. If Blu-ray gets adopted by the general consumer due to falling prices, it'll be around awhile so long as the next generation is more expensive especially relative to its perceived benefits, much like current situation with DVD as it is. Blu-ray being technologically superseded in 5-10 years is hardly surprising by itself.
My head was up my ass and it stank sooo much that I confused frequency with wavelength! My bad!
Only a few, few places will have the necessary network speeds in five years.
More than likely nothing will replace blu-ray, because we won't need big clunky optical discs to transfer our data; we will just use our gigabit internet connections or terabyte flash drives.
I in fact question whether Blu-Ray will have any mainstream success at all; the vast majority of people are probably not willing to buy all new equipment and expensive Blu-Ray discs just for a marginal increase in picture quality. So it will be a luxury item for five years before it becomes obsolete.
"I think it [Blu-ray] has 5 years left, I certainly wouldn't give it 10", Andy Griffiths, Samsung UKâ(TM)s director of consumer electronics, told website Pocket-lint.
I think this is a gross misinterpretation of the statement.
I think that Blu-Ray will be a huge revenue stream for the next 5 years. After that, it'll be a commodity, and will no longer be a "cutting edge" technology. And no giant electronics firm cares much about yesterday's technology, although they still sell a zillion CD players every year.
I also think that OLED will emerge in the next 5 - 10 years. If you're an electronics giant, that's where you want to go next.
I'm still sticking with my formula:
Blu-Ray is to DVD as LaserDisc was to VHS
A cool toy for those movie buffs.
Blu-Ray to be superseded in five year; Samsung is backing OLED!
I fucking dare you to make those two thoughts form a coherent sentence.
Really? Five years sounds like an eternity in the development of net technologies.
Someone may just make a better disc in 4 years. Here is the thing, it isn't about a better disc, but what that disc offers. BluRay isn't about 25 gig layers, but about 1080p, uncompressed audio, etc.
5 years from now, we'll see the first prototypes of quad HD (2160p) prototypes, but it won't mean anything for probably 10 years after that. The prototypes need to become mass manufactured, become common in the homes, and then people need to manufacture content at that resolution.
Most HD movies, CGI work, digital film, etc. is only done at 1080p. You can't put out a 2160p movie until someone starts actually producing movies at that resolution, and that isn't going to happen soon.
BluRay will have a 10 year life, or longer. If you need more storage, BluRay can add tons of layers. Sony has prototypes with 10 layers. Toshiba and other companies have also suggested they can make 10 layers or more on a disc, and some have suggested they've made 500 gig prototypes of BluRay discs.
Will someone make a disc with more storage? Yes. Will it replace BluRay in 5 years? No.
http://blindscribblings.com - Tasty pop-culture in conceptual fashion.
Given that this article makes absolutely no sense, here's my interpretation. Samsung sees no future in blue ray, so will not invest a whole lot of money in developing a bunch of players (which stinks because thats what we need to drive down prices). Instead they are taking that money and concentrating on OLED displays, hopeing there is more money for them in the display business than in the player business.
The next-gen HD stuff is already in production with that new 150" panasonic that has 4xHD, and 16xHD researchers claim that will be the broadcast standard as early as 2025... so maybe leasing that equipment makes more sense than owning it if a higher-res version will be out potentially before the lease expires. (F&F from google searches)
stuff |
I don't claim to be a huge film or TV buff, there's a few movies and TV series I enjoy, I own a mid-range widescreen TV but could give two hoots about the occasional bit of blockiness on the screen or surround sound. If people do want top quality movie and TV entertainment, then good luck to them.
But as a music fan, it's always struck me as really strange how, in the video world, everything is moving to High Definition and Blu-Ray yet in the music world, many people seem to want lower quality compressed music downloads rather than shiny CD disks.
I've spent as much on a reasonably good hifi as a lot of other people spend on video equipment and I *really really* don't get what is the big deal with compressed music - sure, I use MP3s of my collection on a portable player for travelling and the gym but I don't see how someone who buys compressed music can be classified as a music fan when a "movie buff" is never going to be taken seriously unless he/she has got a huge TV, cable, surround sound, etc.
Gentoo Linux - another day, another USE flag.
Obviously they think that nobody has any critical thinking skills. Gah!
What will a new format bring us? More storage space? Higher Resolution video?
While I can see a use for more storage space for data files, I don't see a new disk format dethroning BD for video. Your screen and more importantly your eyes only have so fine a resolution. Beyond a certain threshold, more resolution doesn't do you any good. I dare say BD is there now given our current viewing technologies.
At some point there's not enough perceived benefit to justify changing out the media. Look at CDs as an example. There's no reason why you couldn't cram more music data on the disk for higher fidelity recordings, but at the same time there's no reason to cram any more data onto CDs. Most people can't perceive the difference between a recording made at 44.1 KHz and a 96KHz sampling rate. Even fewer have the equipment to reproduce it.
Seriously! That's all I want are cheap discs for backing up. I don't care about the format wars and being able to see more zits on people.
Isn't it likely that Blu-Ray will be superseded within five years because we will get all our content online anyway? It's already happening, and will only accelerate with larger hard drives and bigger tubes.
www.timcoleman.com is a total waste of your time. Never go there.
I love the audio improvements that Blu-Ray allows. It will definately be around for the life cycle of the PS3 which is about 10 years. After that, it will probably be some other new technology.
Really? Five years sounds like an eternity in the development of net technologies.
Seems like it's leveling off to me. Things really jumped from the mid 90s to early 00s, but not as much since. I'm not seeing a 10x increase in average connection speeds in the next 5 years.
Why do Blu-ray players still cost over $400?
While the article provides no substantial proof, rhyme, or reason I believe the premise is valid. With rapidly increasing capacity and rapidly decreasing size and cost flash memory may actually replace optical medias. Flash provides the convenience of small size the capacity of large disks and the speed of transfer needed to successfully play a movie at proper resolutions.
I think that flash has the capability to be easily integrated into televisions and provide all the functionality we liked of both dvd/blue-ray and VHS. It would be capable of seeking instantly(or nearly so} to any point in the video and it would be a quickly recordable media. A built in flash card reader in a tv could be used in much the same way as a VCR was except with the onscreen guide benefits of a DVR.
I bought a cheap projector for about $1000. HD games look fabulous on it, and I have a screen area about 100" diagonally.
However, I never bothered with hi-def movies. Plain old DVDs look plenty good enough for me, even 8 feet away from that 100" screen. I just don't need Blu-ray.
Development is not the problem. The issue is deployment.
upon the advice of my lawyer, i have no sig at this time
Sounds like a threat to me...
OLED screens are on their way out because internet speeds are getting faster and cheaper every year.
Intel will fail at selling quad-core processors because Logitech just introduced an optical 4-buttons mouse with a scroll wheel and a touch pad.
Microsoft Windows Vista will start selling like hot cakes once Windows 7 is out because it's going to rain on launch day.
Wow, this IS fun! Now where's my paycheck?
The pushing a new DRM protected format on people every five years is going to *cut down* on 'piracy' I would like a little of whatever they are drinking.
The success of the CD was in its longevity, from a music media in the mid eighties to the defacto way for home users to back up data today it has lived along side the DVD for more than a decade, you know DVD the technology more than a dozen years old which still out paces Blue Ray. If anything this will drive people away from DVD/Blue Ray and onto the web for legit services (netflix) and less reputable ones.. I want to know if I am going to drop 300+ for a blue ray player it will still be relevant in a decade. Hell I'm still using my dorm room tv from 1995!
To be frank if I were on the team which designed a media format with a lifetime of less than a decade I would *not* put that on my resume.
"Ahh! Arrogance and stupidity in the same package, how efficient of you!" --Londo Molari
I've often wondered why Slashdot editors don't RTFA themselves, particularly, why they don't go back to the original source article when it's readily available on-line. The text (not the headline) of the article makes it clear that first of all, Griffiths isn't saying Blu-Ray ONLY has five years left. He's saying it has AT LEAST five good years left, but less than ten, in his opinion. Secondly, the business about OLEDs makes it clear that the thrust of the timeframe discussion is with respect to a profit stream. That is, there are five good years of profits left in Blu-Ray, but in the future, Samsung sees OLEDs as a long-term source of profits. Which is reasonable. After all, CD players are still around, and Sammy still makes 'em, but they're not a major revenue source at this point. From that perspective, of hardware profits, they're basically dead, although from a software perspective, CDs are still the #1 media delivery mechanism.
There are two kinds of people: 1) those who start arrays with one and 1) those who start them with zero.
Let's face it, Sony threw a lot of money at Blu-ray's opposition and it away.
Last I heard, DVD media and equipment was still outselling both of the "next gen" formats.
you're crazy. A middle of the road 6 Mbit connection maxed out can download a 5GB blu-ray rip in under 2 hours. You don't think we can stream hi definition content in five years? We can do it right now.
...much slower than DVD sales were. This is because for many people, DVD quality is enough, and the cost of Blu-ray discs aren't justifiable. In the same way that people are skipping Vista and waiting for Windows 7, many people are skipping Blu-ray entirely and waiting for the format after it. The question is: How many of them will give in, and buy Vista or Blu-ray? Time will tell, although personally I'm waiting for a Blu-ray-RW drive at a competitive (to DVD, per gigabyte) price.
No, standard DVDs use over 4 gigs for a standard resolution movie, and compressed audio. BluRay moves use 20+ gigs of storage for 1080p movies and uncompressed audio.
http://blindscribblings.com - Tasty pop-culture in conceptual fashion.
We do need more data storage capacity for HTDV, because even with Blu-Ray, there's too much compression. That's the cause of the usual annoying artifact that moving objects are blurred at the edges and stabilize a few frames after they stop moving.
Displays are currently ahead of transmission and storage. Right now, LCD displays are capable of 1080p at frame rates into the 70Hz range, and some game consoles can output imagery approaching that range. But the data rates from most video media can't get up there yet.
"Digital cinema", as seen in theaters, currently comes in 1080x2048 (compared to the 1080x1920 of HTDV), which digital cinema people call "2K", and 2160x4096, or "4K". But their frame rates are low, 24 FPS normally, 48FPS at best. The number to shoot for is slightly above 70; Showscan established in tests years ago that humans can't tell the difference between 70FPS and higher rates, and there really is a noticeable improvement in audience reaction between even 48 FPS and 70 FPS. So we should probably be going for 72FPS.
The future of storage and transmission may be FrameFree compression. This is a combination of motion detection and morphing for image interpolation. When it works well, the frame rate is effectively limited only by the display and decompression technology. It also allows generating slow motion video from regular video, and is used for that in sports applications.
So there's the market target: 4K, 72FPS display, framefree compression, a 150 inch screen, a Super Bowl stream with enough bandwidth, and a case of beer.
The whole point of video media is that they are read only. That way they don't get recorded over and the movie's there when you want to watch it. RO media is also cheaper, faster, and more durable.
Considering I have seen a 0% increase in the bandwidth available to me in the last 10 years, I don't see this happening EVER.
Yep, that's right, I'm one of those ancient modem technology users.
OTOH, I had a 300 baud modem back in the 80's, so I guess I've seen a 100x increase in the last 20 years.
Now get off my lawn!
Disclaimer:IANAL/MD/PhD-Just the local yokel PC "doc" ~If you're not having fun, then you are probably doing it wrong.
The main cause for the slow adoption of the media is because the economy has been on a downhill slope since it came out. People are scared to make the big purchase of the HDTV and really don't have a need for the Blu-Ray yet. Also, the main advertising of the new media has come from the release of the PS3, which has a high price tag for price sensitive consumers.
The discs themselves are coming down in price. I've seen TV Series box sets within a dollar of the DVD version. My only problem with the discs is that there is still not a grand selection of choices yet.
Given that the economy rebounds, I can see that within the next year and a half that Blu-Ray will start gaining tremendous market share over DVD. You can bet that Sony will drop the price of the PS3 for each of the two next holiday seasons and decent sized HDTVs will drop down to $300 or less.
-- George
Why would Blu-ray be obsolete? WHY? We dont even have broadcast HD TV in 1080P, and even if we did, it would be compressed to shit. Even on my FIOS TV, verizon is comperssing the signal so much that all fast motion looks absolutely terrible.
Its not High DEF, if you're compressing the pixel detail (high definition) out of the picture.
Blu-ray will be around for a while. The market will not tolerate a replacement in 5 years. I know the big suits would love to have us rebuying our films every 5 years in new formats... but thats just fucking ridiculous. It will force consumers to simply give up and revolt. DVD will then win.
No one is going to tolerate standards that change so fast, that they are no longer standards.
Distro is going more and more electronic thanks to the intertubes. There will be a limited demand for physical media for people who are off-grid but it's just not going to be able to keep up with this format wars shit. While I don't like the limited selection, Xbox Live shows the way of the future for media rental. Netflicks has made it work with physical media, they're working hard to crack the electronic distro world. They're going to be on Xbox soon I hear. Physical media is going to be an extremely secondary market, like the way audio cassettes became after CD penetrated everywhere -- CD's took over the slot taken by LP's in the home market, cars and walkmen were still cassette-based, and then gradually CD's took over there and the only people using cassettes simply couldn't afford CD players. As of now, 2008, I don't even know if cassettes are still commercially produced. I know I haven't bought an actual CD in years, hadn't even used the CD player in my car until I got some books on tape for a trip. It has a line-input for mp3 players and I'd been using that for the first year I had the car.
I see there being a continued demand for physical media for bulky distribution (i.e. 100's of GB or TB of info where UPS is faster than FTP) and for archiving. But they're not going to play a major part in the media-consumption lifestyle of people in the future, they just aren't. I'll make a prediction right now: the next-gen consoles will still accept physical media (assuming it's some matter of spinning optical disk) but primary distribution will be via internet and will only become more so over the market lifespan of those consoles.
Kwisatz Haderach
Sell the spice to CHOAM
This Mahdi took Shaddam's Throne
They're just looking for something new to write now that the HD format wars are over..... "Everything you know is wrong! Now let me answer your questions with fantastical predictions based on upcoming technologies that may enter the mass market in 5 years! Plus flying cars!"
Twinstiq, game news
If Samsung is willing to sell me a TV set that comes with... oh let say... 1000 Movies and shows already inside the TV cabinet then I wouldn't need no stinking player outside the actual display (assuming I could ask for which 1000 movies I wanted in glorious ultra high def)
Better yet if that TV costs nominally more than today.
In five years, physical formats won't mean a thing. Media Files will be downloaded if the infrastructure can keep up.
I live in the US, you insensitive clod!
yeah, people call me crazy, but i stocked up on magneto optical drives and zip disks the same way. once im king of the zip, floppy, and these strange new "blu-ray" disks, nothing can stop me from becoming the most obscure geek on slashdot.
Good people go to bed earlier.
Media and their drives are ephemeral. Files are forever.
I *think* what TFA was trying to get across was that Samsung was putting its money into display technology vs. becoming YA maker of Blu-Ray players cutting corners to get into this year's Black Friday sales.
That said, the writer's breathtaking inability to distinguish between a media format and displays makes me cringe.
SCOX(Q) DELENDA EST!!
According to Wikipedia, the first DVR Blue prototypes emerged in 2000. The Blu-ray Disc association was founded in 2002. The first consumer devices shipped in 2003.
Eight years after the first prototypes and five years after commercial availability of Blu-ray, DVD is not obsolete.
Indeed, CDs haven't died yet, even though DVDs have been around since 1995. That's 13 years of coexistence from the time both were actually commercially available.
Since the successor to Blu-ray is not even in prototype stage, let alone being commercially available, it is silly to say that Blu-ray will be replaced in five years.
It is more likely to fail in the market and be "replaced" by DVDs.
Considering I have seen a 0% increase in the bandwidth available to me in the last 10 years, I don't see this happening EVER. Yep, that's right, I'm one of those ancient modem technology users. OTOH, I had a 300 baud modem back in the 80's, so I guess I've seen a 100x increase in the last 20 years. Now get off my lawn!
Shit, man, I can *whistle* 300 baud.
I can't match you on the ancient modem, my first machine came with a 2400 baud. Puts me in the 'old' camp as opposed to 'completely decrepit' like yourself.
If you find a good way of keeping these damned kids off your lawn, let me know.
Umm. They say blu ray will be superseded. Fair enough. DVD is superseded by blu ray, yet it is far from gone, and I doubt it will be soon. Score: -1, alarmist title.
-- All your booze are belong to us.
Blu-Ray to be superseded in five year; Samsung is backing OLED!
I fucking dare you to make those two thoughts form a coherent sentence.
The abovementioned alternatives need not necessarily be neither non-exclusive nor non-inclusive.
Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities. - Voltaire
I doubt that content companies will enthusiastically move to a physical media that is not fragile. People have to buy replacement CDs, DVDs and now Blu-ray discs all the time because the physical media is so prone to damage.
There are plenty of alternatives that are sturdier, but the content companies will lose money if people only have to buy one copy.
So this is like playing a board game where the two winning players battle it out only to find everyone else has slowly advanced well ahead of their position in the end. Blu-ray and HDDVD will fall and the real winner will appear in 5 years and will offer better longevity and density.
I'm still waiting on a high density format that offers a 25+ year archival life. That's what everyone wants, and Blu-ray doesn't cut it. DVD offered far superior video quality in comparison to SVCD and VHS technology. Blu-ray/HDDVD may have better quality video than DVD, but TVs are not improving fast enough and some people are happy with the quality of DVD. I imagine the thought of "improved video quality" is an old and busted idea. We already got that last time, so why do we need it again?
We all want something new and different; a higher definition circular disk is nothing new. If you put out a tiny cubic disk it would get more attention. I think something with a longer lifespan would be of more value. Everyone's sick of their DVDs getting scratched, and to think that a scratched blu-ray is even worse is not good news.
It says essentially Samsung isn't going to produce BluRay drives as "it will be superseded in five years," so hey are concentrating on their blockbuster technology, OLED, which will eventually supplant LCD according to the Samsung PR rep.
In the end file formats like .avi .mpg xvid and divx will outlast their competitors.LOL
*Repent!Quit Your Job!Slack Off!The World Ends Tomorrow and You May Die!
Right now you can get a 500Gb external HD for £60. I've got quite a few now, which mainly get used for archiving and backups. the 1Tb raided ones are interesting, but too costly just now.
I stopped buying dvds for storage ages ago, and even writable blu ray can't beat a 500gb HD. I only have a 16gb flash drive for moving small amounts of data around. The external HDs I have solve all my data archiving and transfer problems.
A learning experience is one of those things that say, 'You know that thing you just did? Don't do that.' - D. Adams
I want my next computer to have no disk drives and no fans, because my last computer like that is still working 25+ years later. Most of my machines did not last 1/5th as long. Nice little machine my Atari-400.
You get your combo store identity and Movie device all in one.
If anything this would make the stores even cheaper to run. Instead of having to have people behind the counter they have kiosks which you can choose which movie(s) you want. Heck you could eliminate the store in its entirety and just have kiosks at the mall, your grocery store, even the corner gas station. Everyone can get in on it.
Take your "device", pick what you want, swipe your debit/cc and your off.
All they need to do is get the transfer speed up to something sufficient for DVD quality movies. You could tier this by selling different sized devices which of course could store more movies or even games. Don't try to fit different technology into what the old is, imagine the possibilities granted by it.
Broadband penetration will never be complete enough to satisfy the studios or entrepreneurs
* Winners compare their achievements to their goals, losers compare theirs to that of others.
They probably figure that's about how long before their DRM becomes totally useless. Optimistic, aren't they?
They may have passed Sony in electronic sales but this "prediction" alone proves Samsung has a long way to go.
I am staring at 2 Samsung monitors now, got Samsung Plasma, their DVD player and let me say: Electronically high quality stuff but NOT Sony. When you press "source" button 4 times to switch between set top box and attached computer or when you have to colour calibrate your LCD via Pantone Huey, staring at "Windows Vista Compatible!" stupid sticker, you would understand my point.
If Pioneer, JVC, Toshiba (to some extent) predicted something like that, I would read but this time, I don't really care about FA.
I think Samsung has to go to a professional movie/TV studio and look at resolutions they work with along with the brand they use.
BluRay is a very needed thing, especially for Hollywood. They know they can't sell you stuff you can freely download from Pirate Bay. 1080p/uncompressed audio and interactive/connected things may (no guarantee) convince you to pay for quality content. Not a DivX file you can download and play on Samsung $50 deck.
Comment removed based on user account deletion
My prediction: the video format that supersedes Blu-ray will TCP/IP.
To stay ahead of counterfeiters, the [industry] anticipates introducing new . . . designs every 7-10 years.
Sound familiar? We are passing the point where it was arguably about quality.
"We reject as false the choice between our safety and our ideals." --The American President (20.1.2009)
I just don't get the bluray is dead, going to be superseded, etc in X years. Downloads have issues with bandwith and I doubt content providers will back it as a selling medium. More than a few people will not accept the idea of purchasing a file. Set top boxes that download content may replace the rental model but I don't see the purchasing model being replaced with downloads.
Optical disk are dirt cheap to manufacture unlike any other competing physical storage media, and that cost is just going to get lower as the manufacturing gets streamlined. Maybe flash will be cost competitive in 10 years but even then I have my doubts.
And one fact almost nobody mentions is why is bluray superseding DVD's (slowly of course), governments changed the broadcast standards and I don't think that's going to happen again for another 20 years.
OLED technology is more of a question IMO, you know with the degradation issues they have.
future proof of what though?
Why, future, of course!
The whole project has been carefully and hermetically sealed to ensure that not a drop of future can get in.
Aw, but Future is such great stuff! It makes a nice gloss coat for both before and after you apply decals... you can dip clear parts in it to get a brilliant shine that won't haze from super glue fumes... You can even use it to make small clear windows... It self-levels, you don't need to thin it before airbrushing it, it's dirt-cheap and available at just about any supermarket. Hell, you could even polish your floors with it, if you wanted to...
Bow-ties are cool.
SD Cards use CPRM. That's what stops you from copying games for mobile phones, there's no reason why consoles using flash carts can't use it.
CPRM has been around for ages so I assume it's been cracked but it stops casual copying, which is the best DRM can do anyway.
Nick
16GB is 2x a dual layer, 4x a single layer. It's not "1/2", that's one half. If that were true a double layer disc would be 32GB.
Nick
My children and bad drives has destroyed too much. Funny how there is no way to register and get the media after destruction without having to pay all the royalties once again, or many times with different media (e.g. iTunes, CD's &c.)
I thought about 'The man who fell to earth' each time an old format dies.
...and in the meantime I will happily enjoy watching my BluRay movies in 1080p with lossless audio which I can't do with any other source.
For some people this is sign that BluRay is a failure and it justifies their decision to sit this generation out. For me it means I get to enjoy movies now at the highest quality while you twiddle your thumbs waiting.
Five years is a loooooooong time to a HT enthusiast! ;)
The problem is passive media. It has to be entirely changed in order to migrate to the next major size. And these changes are not forward compatible because the details of such changes are not known ahead of time. Backward compatibility is often possible (for example a Blu-Ray player can read DVDs because the same size is involved).
Active media generally does not have this issue. Examples of active media are USB memory sticks, Flash memory cards, and hard disk drives (especially the USB/Firewire/eSATA external ones). These devices can, for the most part, come out with greater capacity and be compatible because they can use the same interface. One well known exception is the SD card, which because of poor design requirements, was limited to 2GB capacity. The upward compatible SD/HC replacement interface allows a much larger capacity 2TB capacity. But this is already well above what the Blu-Ray optical media can do (50GB for dual layer).
Optical (passive) media is a better choice where large numbers of media units are needed, and only a small number of active units (players, recorders) are involved, such as the distribution of movies from mass producers to the public. Active media is a better media for self recording. The latter will become more important as people shift from buying pre-recorded media to downloading content (whether legal or otherwise).
My iPod Shuffle is based on built-in flash. My point-and-shoot digital camera (I'm still trying to wean my photography hobby off of film) uses an SD/HC flash card (4GB). I'm considering a camcorder, but I don't want one that records on DVD ... I want one that records on SD/HC (even though it is expensive). I can then store my home movies on a hard drive, and post pieces of them on YouTube for friends and enemies.
All optical media is doomed from being the primary way to deal with large media content in all ways. If internet access speeds make it effective to download instead of buy media by the time the Blu-Ray replacement comes out, it won't get adopted.
now we need to go OSS in diesel cars
I'll leave open the question as to if wide adoption actually happens, but considering that a BDR drive is available at the store and seems to be following the same pattern as CDR / DVDR.
:)
Okay let's fast forward 5 years
assuming wide adoption at some point, Blu-Ray blanks eventually cost the same as blank DVR's today, around 15p a disk / 0.30$
(they currently cost around £30 / $60, but remember how much blank CDR's / DVDR's cost when they came out initially?)
Some snazzy new recordable media comes out lets call it yellow ray 5 years down the line, promising 10 times the storage capacity (just an example)
at this point you've got a choice of ether extremely cheap media say 15p for 50Gb a pop, or the new snazzy 10x ultra yellow disk at £30 a disk
for the existing BDR tech using MPEG4 it should be possible to fit at least 6 full size DVD's onto one of these disks at the moment, probably more with increased compression
(I'm kind of curious as to how many VHS tapes I can fit onto one of these things using Mpeg4, for archival purposes, not to mention the possibility of getting every episode of Dr Who onto just one disk)
also consider that an increased number of layers could be possible at some later point (more than the current 2 via a firmware update)
it's fair to assume that the adoption of the next generation / standard up, could take longer (unless we get bigger room size TV's)
correct me if I'm wrong (I'm sure someone will, this is slashdot) also I'm guessing at that point we'll probably be onto cartridges, given the density of data involved
Each next generation of disk format may have the problem of taking longer before having wide adoption / cheap media
given that there's not as much a need for the increased space right away as there was with the initial CDR / DVDR footprint (unless some wonderful new display tech comes out to make use of it)
I'm sufficiently certain that Blu-Ray has enough of it's foot in the door to eventually end up with cheap media, however that's just my own opinion
as for flash storage, I'm kind of reluctant to use something which isn't non-volatile, or magnetically susceptible to interference
(something which isn't permanently burned in)
and yes I am slightly bias given that I've gotten a hold of one of the new LG BDR drives recently
Although I did wait until after the format war
Does this mean we'll never see the unbelievably huge PC RPG burned on a double layer blu-ray disk in which I could immerse myself into and never see the light of day ever again? Dang. So much for being hopeful.
Why this doesn't really surprise me. This tech industry has been drip feeding the world tiny bits of new stuff for decades and all the while, keeping their industry alive and in the cold hard cash! Its all about money.
Watch it in X-RAY, and we guarantee...
You'll SHIT your PANTS!
you can have my violent video games when you pry them from my cold, dead hands.
Prime UID Club
The VCR worked just fine and most of the movies available were crap.
What prompted me to get the DVD player had nothing to do with DVD technology itself, but the invention of Netflix and its competitors.
I piss off bigots.
Then it'll only be USB sticks!
If Google really cared they would fix Android Chrome to reflow text, instead of discriminating
I works for the samsungs and I can tell you that what we are saying makes sense really.
The new OLED screens are going to help protect the users by proactivly blocking all content except for the new type of disk that we haven't figured out yet. Instead of the BR disks policy of not playing on screens except for HDCP compatible screens, we are going to do things the other way around this time. The consumers will be protected from viewing content not made by my company samsungs!
So, you wont have to worry about anything like playing non-samsung content accidentally again.
Also, we guarantee no one will ever break this DRM, its so strong!! We also promise that the new disks will be compatible with other previous players (we promise! no really, we do!).
Flash will probably take over the market currently occupied by older VCR / brunable DVDs / Harddisk.
Poping a 100G thumb flash (probably USB3) will probably tomorrow's way to record and swap around home records.
You also have to look at production of the media itself. If the media is easier cheaper to produce then it gets a big leg up.
As for the mass-produced commercial content, we will probably skip the media all together.
The cheapest way to produce and distribute content isn't pressed media (a tiny fraction of $ per copy) but streaming (absolute 0$ cost for the media, only the bandwith costs).
Probably packed together with awfully un-practical and fair-use destroying DRM, and delivered over a crippled system (that will be caped in the USA because your ISP still won't have bothered to upgrade the infrastructure, but instead count on massive caching and torrent-like distribution to relieve the stress on the bandwidth). With commercial playing constantly in the the screen's border (like a 2.5:1 anamorphic movie playing on a 16:9 wide-screen, but with small youtube quality adds, instead of black bars) and cropping considered a major felony thanks to law passed by media lobby.
"Sufficiently advanced satire is indistinguishable from reality." - [Tips: 1DrYakQDKCQ6y52z6QbnkxHXAocMZJE61o ]
Just crazy old me but... with 100 Mbps around the corner (North Europe has it all over the place and we'll have it in Portugal until the end of the year) why the hell would anyone keep their media locally? Bacteria feed? When everyone is always online (my house surely is) with over 36 Mbps, the main distribution media will be... well... the network?
Say they would use flash if it could be made cheap enough. This would probably only let you write at 10MB/sec which means almost an hour to fill it up.
A disc, by comparison, is manufactured in seconds. Completely done.
The excessive cost of flash or PROM combined with the low write speed means it will likely not be used for that.
The only thing I could imagine is semiconductor media distribution where a whole wafer of ROM is produced with the movie pre-encoded on it. But that would likely still be prohibitively expensive for anything but the largest production runs.
Just like vhs beat out beta, and dvd is winning over vhs. It's all about the porno. If that industry picks up blue ray, then it will reign supreme! Can you imagine the amazing clarity of seeing spunk in high def??
Please. This is technology we're talking about. In five to ten years we might all be watching videos beamed directly into our skulls by mind-vibronium devices invented by Buckaroo Banzai.
[signature]
Well, Blu-Ray is probably a financial failure. The most popular blu-ray player is the sold at a loss PS3. That makes it impossible for any other blu-ray player manufacturer to make a profit. Hollywood, does DVD or blu-ray really matter to them? They make money selling either one, and I bet the blu-ray license fees are higher. I don't see too many people rebuying DVDs they own as blu-ray.
You're more likely to find software on DVD now than you are CD.
Aside from that, DVD was meant to replace VHS, and did so with a resounding bitchslap, the sound of which has echoed throughout the retail world.
DVD was never meant to slay CD in the realm of audio distribution, except in the minds of the delusional. Do you think people would buy $200 discs? Do you think bands would produce albums with a few hundred songs? Do you think more than three of those songs would be worth listening to? Even the RIAA isn't that stupid.
Why, I think it was only five years or so into the useful life of DVD that development was already taking place on Blu-ray and HD-DVD, and the first battle cry of the latest format war was heard. I am not surprised to hear this prediction because no matter how much data capacities grow, it never seems to be enough nowadays. I think what will really supersede all of these formats will be when the available Internet bandwidth skyrockets to make possible video on demand in HDTV resolutions. Television will then come in two varieties: Live broadcasts and pre-recorded content of all types that can be watched at any time. When that happens, it's unlikely that anyone will want these plastic discs anymore.
McCain/Palin '08. Now THAT's hope and change!
There is a problem, the NEXT HD format is already being developed in Japan, where else. It will be even higher resolution, meaning even more data to transmit. Is your ISP comcast? Then how does it feel about downloading the next format, say pure a guess, 200gig for a movie? Optical discs will in 5 years be capable of that, your internet connection will NOT. That has been the problem for web developers since the dawn of time, everytime the capacity of the net increases, the demand on it increases as well. It is as simple as the well known avatar in forum like software. It started with small pics, and people complained because it choked their connection, then they increased their bandwidth but at the same time the avatar pics where increased as well. Bandwidth increased again, so people started using signatures. The end result is that today, some forums still take as long to load as they did on the earliest modems. Everytime data transfer increases we transmit more data. Proof me wrong, rent your movies in youtube format for display on your HD tv.
MMO Quests are like orgasms:
You may solo them, I prefer them in a group.
I can't match you on the ancient modem, my first machine came with a 2400 baud. Puts me in the 'old' camp as opposed to 'completely decrepit' like yourself.
If you find a good way of keeping these damned kids off your lawn, let me know.
Obviously neither of you ever used a 300 baud modem. If you're using a cradle modem, kids on the lawn are a good thing. Kids trying to use the phone or playing inside and knocking it off the cradle is the danger!
SWM seeks new sig for a brief fling
With one good reason: the imposition of download caps from your Internet Service Provider (ISP).
ISP's around the world are starting to realize that too much downloading of big multimedia files will cause serious data bottlenecks, and as such we may see users limited to around 500 to 750 GB of data downloads per month.
With improving technology, Blu-ray players and discs will continue to drop, and players could drop under US$200 within a year or so.
However, with Comcast imposing a 250 GB per month limit and likely most other ISP's following this lead, this may put a kibosh on the idea of widespread downloaded movies. :-( ISP's around the world are realizing too much large-size multimedia format downloads will choke the network.
Besides, with a real Blu-ray disc you have a lot less compromises in regards to data compression, which means vastly better picture and sound quality.
Comment removed based on user account deletion
Obviously neither of you ever used a 300 baud modem. If you're using a cradle modem, kids on the lawn are a good thing. Kids trying to use the phone or playing inside and knocking it off the cradle is the danger!
I was a little younger - the risk for me was Mom picking up the other extension. No Carrier?!? Dammit!
Do you think 1Mbps will make you happy in 2018? In 2013?
Poor people quibble over nickels and dimes.
Everyone knows that people in trailer parks don't deserve entertainment. If they're awake, they should be working - preferably doing physical labor so they can't get too uppity.
If $25 for a movie is too much for you, wank off!
More than 50% of the US population is suffering an economic downturn vs their situation 8 years ago. Who cares? The other ~50% has increased their wealth by numbers big enough to make the "average" go up.
That's all that counts. The overall average. Math is everything! Poor people just throw off the curve.
Poor people quibble over nickels and dimes.
Everyone knows that people in trailer parks don't deserve entertainment. If they're awake, they should be working - preferably doing physical labor so they can't get too uppity.
Where is it stated that everybody is entitled to the same level of consumer goods and/or entertainment? Successful people have always had more things and a higher level of service than poor people, but at the end of the day not everybody can be highly successful. Somebody has to make the sandwiches and ditches don't dig themselves. (Before you get on your high horse, I've worked in both the restaurant and construction industries. At some point it dawned on me that I wanted a better lot in life so I changed and succeeded.)
More than 50% of the US population is suffering an economic downturn vs their situation 8 years ago.
Yeah, and how much of that was due to ignorance and people taking "too good to be true" sub-prime mortgages - in some cases walking away from highly subsidized mortgages in the process? Not only is ignorance no excuse, it's dangerous, especially when combined with greed and the lack of common sense.
BD Phone Home!
Shameless plug. Like you weren't expecting it.
I don't have blueray and am in no rush to get it. This is strange because in the 90s I was always feeling constrained by tech and waiting for the next new thing to come out. Now even my slowest computer will edit videos, and has plenty of storage space for all my music photos, web sites I have developed, etc. Maybe I am just old but I think for 90% of people Moores law has outpaced their actual needs in video and computer equipment. From what I can see only cell phones are growing in real practical useable capability.
Typed from a G4 867 mhz Powerbook that is frankly fine when backed up by a G5 tower and cheap off Craig's list Core2Duo big desktop replacement type notebook. If consumers really reflected on what they needed v.s. what's being provided I think the tech industry would be in real trouble. And I am saying as the sort of early adopter who tried Google's Chrome web browser.
The point is I doubt I'll have blu ray even 5 years from now and it's replacement I'll want less and I hardly consider myself either deprived or a luddite.
Am I the only one here who feels that way?
Tired of all the isms, don't exploit people as an employer, or a government, mmmmK?
HD-DVD and Blueray were always a solution but the problem they were meant to address, providing High Definition comment, wasn't really a problem. When DVDs came out, video was video. People hadn't started to think of/treat video as simply data. When Blueray and HD-DVD came out, video was data, nothing more, nothing less.
The problem sony THOUGHT it was solving with blueray was how to distribute high def video. However, because of the delays in getting the technology out, the problem they were really addressing turned into how to distribute large amounts of data. Guess what, we already have that. I have massive USB disks in both solid state and hard drive formats. I have a network connection capable of moving massive amounts of data. Blueray is simply ANOTHER way, not THE ONLY way. The real problem now is the data FORMAT. The transmission media is irrelevant, but the data format needs to be able to inable scaling of data quality and media independence. I assume thats what we are seeing with the new Ghostbusters usb stick, is an attempt to start thinking about the real problem and get past the transmission bump.
I do security
I'm not an Anonymous coward, I just can't be bothered to go through the hassle of creating an account!
I'll identify myself as KL.
In response to raitchison:
Your comment " once the sudios have determined Blu Ray has reached sufficient market penetration...."
I agree with the premise that that was the original intention of the film studios, however it seems on this occassion the film studio have got caught up with the Sony hype.
It quite obvious that their isn't sufficient consumer led demand for Blu Ray, and there are many reaons for this.
The mass market always favours convenience rather than better picture quality....Betamax should have taught Sony that much at least.
Dvd replacing VHS is a completely different animal to Blu Ray's attempt to replace DVD.
First off disc had so many obviously percieved benefits over VHS.
1)Physical size of media, 15 DVD take up less space than a single VHS tape. ....DVD no such problems
2)VHS was vunerable to being chewed up in machine at any given time....DVD no such worries.
3)VHS were notoriously bad at deteriorating in quality, with picture jumping,snow problems and audio problems
4)VHS generally more easily damaged than DVD, ie storing near loudsspeakers or tvs.
5)VHS very limited seekabilty, DVD much more versatile in that respect with menus and chapters.
6)General picture quality poor in comparison to DVD.
7)VHS sound quality inferior to DVD.
Now with all those advantages it's not suprising the mass market adopted DVD in sufficient numbers for the studios to start to phase out VHS.
Now compare this to Blu Ray v DVD
Main percieved advantages.
1) DVD gives a very good picture quality, Blu Ray gives a better resolution.
Sure there are the advantages of audio and more storage space, but these aren't advantages that will capture mass market interest.
So really Blu Ray only has one real advantage over DVD that had might appeal to the average Joe and DVD had at least 7 real advantages that appealed to the average Joe.
The mass market is more concerned with convenience rather than picture quality, so Blu Ray is already at a disadvantage when trying to appeal to the mass market.
Dvd also could be played on almost every household that owned a TV.
Blu Ray can only be played on Hi Def tv, whilst most new tvs sold today are Hi Def, the large majority of households still have Cathode Ray Tube tvs, and some of those have a shelf life of over 20 years (I know,I've got one 21 years old that still gives better tv picture than my £700 LCD).
In addition you have the extra cost of getting equiptment especially to play Blu Ray,and higher priced discs.
Early market sales of both players and discs suggest sluggish sales and lack of real consumer interest in this new HD "standard" format.
Combine that with the worldwide economic downturn,
where buying a brand new entertainment system for your home will rate pretty low in most households, and I don't see that Blu Ray will ever get to anywhere nearly enough market penetration that the studios will abandon DVD.
There is still far much more profit to be made from DVD than Blu Ray.
If the studios decide just to go with Blu Ray, then they will make much less profit, as Blu Ray, will never have the market penetration of DVD, now studios generally aren't going to want to make a loss purely to attempt to make Blu Ray the standard format.
It's unlikely to pan out the way you have outlined
raitchison, more likely that Blu Ray might continue to exist, but only as a niche market not a mass market standard.