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Antarctic Ice Bridge Finally Breaks Off

GreennMann writes "An ice bridge linking a shelf of ice the size of Jamaica to two islands in Antarctica has snapped. Scientists say the collapse could mean the Wilkins Ice Shelf is on the brink of breaking away, and provides further evidence of rapid change in the region. Sited on the western side of the Antarctic Peninsula, the Wilkins shelf has been retreating since the 1990s. Researchers regarded the ice bridge as an important barrier, holding the remnant shelf structure in place. Its removal will allow ice to move more freely between Charcot and Latady islands, into the open ocean."

505 comments

  1. Well, by palegray.net · · Score: 5, Funny

    that's certainly one way to break the ice in a tense situation like this.

    1. Re:Well, by uberjack · · Score: 1

      Why not just drop a big block of ice into the ocean every now and then?

    2. Re:Well, by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Funny

      gee an ice shelf the size of jamaica.... that must be something like 20,000,000 fridges?

    3. Re:Well, by Forge · · Score: 4, Funny

      How much is that in Football fields?

      Seriously, We don't play American Football in Jamaica so I'm a little Hazy as to what 4,244 sq mi (10,991 sq km) translates to in more standard SlashDot measurements.

      --
      --= Isn't it surprising how badly I spell ?
    4. Re:Well, by gfxguy · · Score: 1

      What's amazing to me is, having jogged around tracks at football fields for years, that football fields don't really seem to be all that big when you reduce it to jus the size of the in-bounds field itself. When someone says a building, for example, has the foot print of a football field I think "don't most modern buildings have the footprint of a football field?"

      --
      Stupid sexy Flanders.
    5. Re:Well, by maxume · · Score: 4, Informative

      Including the endzones, 2,054,096 football fields. Excluding the endzones, 2,464,915.5 football fields.

      --
      Nerd rage is the funniest rage.
    6. Re:Well, by mdm-adph · · Score: 1

      What I'd like to know is can you please optimize the images on your homepage? :P

      Seriously, I'm on a 80mbps fat pipe and your site takes forever to load!

      --
      It is by my will alone my thoughts acquire motion; it is by the juice of the coffee bean that the thoughts acquire speed
    7. Re:Well, by GeneralEmergency · · Score: 3, Funny

      Seriously, We don't play American Football in Jamaica so I'm a little Hazy as to what 4,244 sq mi (10,991 sq km) translates to in more standard SlashDot measurements.

      A more "standard" SlashDot measurement???

      What is the area of a typical parental basement?

      --
      "A microprocessor... is a terrible thing to waste." --
      GeneralEmergency
    8. Re:Well, by Forge · · Score: 1

      Not my home page. Just a site I happened to like 2 years ago when I last edited my /. profile.

      --
      --= Isn't it surprising how badly I spell ?
  2. Blame me by DaHat · · Score: 5, Funny

    Given my SUV driving has yet to save me in a crash (I've not had one since buying it)... I'm glad to see it has contributed to something productive at least.

    1. Re:Blame me by Thanshin · · Score: 5, Funny

      Given my SUV driving has yet to save me in a crash (I've not had one since buying it)...

      Don't feel bad; maybe you've crashed multiple times against bikes and pedestrians and simply didn't notice.

    2. Re:Blame me by Stonent1 · · Score: 1, Funny

      Honestly I think global warming is caused by "hot air" coming from people like Al Gore. :)

    3. Re:Blame me by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Come drive your SUV around me. Smaller cars, people, people on bikes, just cut you off. The claim that they didn't see the SUV. Once or twice I could let pass. Over 100 times in one year? No, something is up. I have not hit anyone/anything but it is killing the breaks. I was getting my break replaced again. At the repair shop I brought the topic up since I needed new breaks in under a year. The repair guy just started laughing. You have an SUV, there is a very strong anti-SUV thing around here. There is a group that is purposely cutting off SUVs in the hopes of getting them outlawed. They figure if someone dies from an SUV accident, they will get the law passed. So I better get used to it. They are not going to stop. I said well I did get the lifetime break pads. He wasn't so smug after that.

      There is a bike/jogging trail where the trail has stop signs, not the road. I have asked the police who should stop. The people on the path have to wait for traffic to clear to proceed. The bike path must yield to traffic on the road. What do the people on the path do? They stop at the sign or slow down. They see you coming, and cross the road forcing the drivers to either slam on their breaks, or hit them.

      Oh, Washing DC metro area in case you were wondering.

    4. Re:Blame me by slummy · · Score: 1

      Dodge is a damn fine car. Ran over my wife with a Dodge.

    5. Re:Blame me by AlamedaStone · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Good for them!

      I do the same thing here in Boston. Plenty of people here resent the truly unpatriotic - SUVs with magnetic Support the Troops ribbons, during wartime, in an economic and energy crisis.

      If you don't have the decency to be ashamed, there are people that will risk their lives to force you to pay an asshole tax, either in brake pads, or insurance premiums, or 100 other ways you don't yet perceive.

      --
      "All these years believing you're the signified monkey, only to find out you're just a big hunk of nobody cares."
  3. Re:Not that it matters ... by palegray.net · · Score: 5, Funny

    Now, I'm gunna drive my SUV 65 miles to work tomorrow and feel ok about it.

    You may feel okay about it, but I feel bad for your gas card :).

  4. This isn't the tip of the iceberg... by __aaclcg7560 · · Score: 5, Funny

    Once the ice bridge falls away, scientists will find one pissed off ice troll.

    1. Re:This isn't the tip of the iceberg... by palegray.net · · Score: 1

      He's already been found, and he's not happy.

    2. Re:This isn't the tip of the iceberg... by FooAtWFU · · Score: 3, Funny

      Maybe that ice troll's not happy because he's in the middle of a burning desert somewhere. Look at all the sand.

      --
      The World Wide Web is dying. Soon, we shall have only the Internet.
    3. Re:This isn't the tip of the iceberg... by servognome · · Score: 1

      Or make a giant margarita

      --
      D6 63 0D 70 89 81 BB 8E 7B 7C 5F 5D 54 EA AB 73
  5. Somewhere in the USA... by dexmachina · · Score: 0

    "Quick! To the Gore-Mobile!"

    1. Re:Somewhere in the USA... by FooAtWFU · · Score: 1, Insightful

      I'm waiting to see the live video footage of that scene where the poor sweet little baby polar bear is trapped on an ice floe which shrinks until he falls off to be eaten by sharks or some garbage like that *splash*

      --
      The World Wide Web is dying. Soon, we shall have only the Internet.
    2. Re:Somewhere in the USA... by palegray.net · · Score: 1

      More likely to be eaten by killer whales, but hey, it's the circle of life, it's the wheel of fortune, it's the leap of faith, it's the band of hope.

    3. Re:Somewhere in the USA... by One+Louder · · Score: 4, Funny

      I'm waiting to see the live video footage of that scene where the poor sweet little baby polar bear is trapped on an ice floe which shrinks until he falls off to be eaten by sharks or some garbage like that *splash*

      It would be quite remarkable to have video footage of polar bears in the Antarctic.

    4. Re:Somewhere in the USA... by scientus · · Score: 3, Informative

      This is it the season that it recedes. Its winter down there and only moving more into winter. Also, this shelf has been there for centuries, and now the whole thing is going to come unhinged.

    5. Re:Somewhere in the USA... by praksys · · Score: 2, Informative

      Not so much. Winter is just starting in the southern hemisphere. The equinox was March 20 so in Antarctica the sun only went down a few weeks ago.

    6. Re:Somewhere in the USA... by interkin3tic · · Score: 1

      It would be quite remarkable to have video footage of polar bears in the Antarctic.

      Go easy on him, FooAtWFU is a high school student from Wasilla, AK. He's special.

    7. Re:Somewhere in the USA... by palegray.net · · Score: 1

      That, my friend, is an extremely informative post.

    8. Re:Somewhere in the USA... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I'm waiting to see the live video footage of that scene where the poor sweet little baby polar bear is trapped on an ice floe which shrinks until he falls off to be eaten by sharks or some garbage like that *splash*

      It would be quite remarkable to have video footage of polar bears in the Antarctic.

      The Antarctic has penguins.

      + More cuter than polar bears
      - Falling in sea not as heartbreaking

    9. Re:Somewhere in the USA... by MichaelSmith · · Score: 2, Funny

      I'm waiting to see the live video footage of that scene where the poor sweet little baby polar bear is trapped on an ice floe which shrinks until he falls off to be eaten by sharks or some garbage like that *splash*

      It would be quite remarkable to have video footage of polar bears in the Antarctic.

      Here in the southern hemisphere we call them Polar Koalas.

    10. Re:Somewhere in the USA... by FooAtWFU · · Score: 1

      Yes, I know that. And yet somehow I get a 'Score 1, Insightful' and you get the 5, Funny. There ain't no justice.

      --
      The World Wide Web is dying. Soon, we shall have only the Internet.
    11. Re:Somewhere in the USA... by hey! · · Score: 1

      Serves you right.

      Everyone knows penguins are cuter than polar bears.

      Also, spend a few hours on Google Scholar on the polar bear issue. Record polar bear populations seen in a single habitat is a reasonable outcome of overall habitat reduction.

      --
      Post may contain irony: discontinue use if experiencing mood swings, nausea or elevated blood pressure.
    12. Re:Somewhere in the USA... by Erikderzweite · · Score: 1

      Then it's a sweet little baby penguin which is trapped on an ice floe which shrinks until he falls off... Damn! That thing can swim?! (so can polar bears too)

    13. Re:Somewhere in the USA... by Kagura · · Score: 1

      It would be quite remarkable to have video footage of polar bears in the Antarctic.

      They only come out of hibernation when the sun is eclipsed by Mars. That's why you hardly see them.

  6. the main concern... by skathe · · Score: 0

    Its removal will allow ice to move more freely between Charcot and Latady islands, into the open ocean.

    This is cause for alarm if you're concerned about iceberg free shipping lanes, correct?

    1. Re:the main concern... by OverlordQ · · Score: 1

      This is cause for alarm if you're concerned about iceberg free shipping lanes, correct?

      Considering there's about zero shipping lanes near Antarctica I'd say this doesn't rank up there on the priority list.

      --
      Your hair look like poop, Bob! - Wanker.
    2. Re:the main concern... by palegray.net · · Score: 1

      GPS and satellite imagery tend to mitigate this type of issue. Fifty years ago it might have been cause for concern.

    3. Re:the main concern... by compro01 · · Score: 3, Insightful

      You presume that the ice will not float northwards into the shipping lanes. All that ice can travel a long ways before melting.

      --
      upon the advice of my lawyer, i have no sig at this time
    4. Re:the main concern... by compro01 · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Yes, but that still requires you to go around them, boosting costs as they need to burn more fuel.

      --
      upon the advice of my lawyer, i have no sig at this time
    5. Re:the main concern... by palegray.net · · Score: 2, Informative

      Slowing your rate of approach works just as well as speeding up to overtake or bypass an object. Speaking from naval experience here...

    6. Re:the main concern... by Architect_sasyr · · Score: 1

      We've come a long(ish) way since the Titanic. We have, for example, RADAR which can see these things long before we smell the ice. I don't think ice in the shipping lanes is going to be a big issue, a minor annoyance perhaps.

      --
      Me failed English...
      FreeBSD over Linux. If my comments seem odd, this may explain...
    7. Re:the main concern... by Schemat1c · · Score: 5, Funny

      Speaking from naval experience here...

      What does your bellybutton have to do with icebergs?

      --

      "Nobody knows the age of the human race, but everybody agrees that it is old enough to know better." - Unknown
    8. Re:the main concern... by palegray.net · · Score: 1

      There was this one time when I was on leave, and an old girlfriend of mine had this ice cube, oh wait... I probably shouldn't go into that...

    9. Re:the main concern... by Cassius+Corodes · · Score: 4, Funny

      Can we really discount the possibility of ice having stealth technology?

      --
      Control is an illusion, order our comforting lie. From chaos, through chaos, into chaos we fly
    10. Re:the main concern... by timmarhy · · Score: 1

      no, the question is, can we risk it. i mean safety comes first. what if your gps, radar, radio AND your eyes all stop working a the same time as this million to one iceberg appears?!?! jesus people just take such big risks. think of the children.

      --
      If you mod me down, I will become more powerful than you can imagine....
    11. Re:the main concern... by Joebert · · Score: 1

      Good point.
      Ship captains might shrug it off with a "It's only an icebug, nothing to worry about" oblivious to the danger.

      Sneaky bastards.

      --
      Wanna fight ? Bend over, stick your head up your ass, and fight for air.
    12. Re:the main concern... by Joebert · · Score: 2, Funny

      oh wait... I probably shouldn't go into that...

      That's what she said !

      --
      Wanna fight ? Bend over, stick your head up your ass, and fight for air.
    13. Re:the main concern... by MichaelSmith · · Score: 1

      This is cause for alarm if you're concerned about iceberg free shipping lanes, correct?

      Considering there's about zero shipping lanes near Antarctica I'd say this doesn't rank up there on the priority list.

      Except the shipping lanes which service people in Antarctica.

    14. Re:the main concern... by dkleinsc · · Score: 3, Funny

      Of course we can't. And what's worse, they can fire while cloaked.

      --
      I am officially gone from /. Long live http://www.soylentnews.com/
    15. Re:the main concern... by Samschnooks · · Score: 1

      Speaking from naval experience here...

      What does your bellybutton have to do with icebergs?

      He was talking about oranges smart guy! Geeze!

    16. Re:the main concern... by kabocox · · Score: 1

      You presume that the ice will not float northwards into the shipping lanes. All that ice can travel a long ways before melting.

      You presume that the ice will be a negative resource. I could actually see vast amounts of money to be made off of towing these things to various coastal cities for fresh ice water.

  7. As I've Said Before by Das+Auge · · Score: 0, Troll

    If you really, really wanted to save the polar ice caps, you'd create a time machine and travel back..say, 19,000 years ago. Back when the polar ice cap extended down into what is modern day Illinois.

    Which predates SUVs and industrialization by around...19,000 years or so.

    That is one of the global warming metrics, right? Save the shrinking polar ice cap, right? You'd need to go back to a time when you can't blame humans. Even then, you'd have to go back yet again to the previous ice age, or any of the numerous ice ages.

    So...at some point 20,000 to 30,000 years from now, someone's going to say ,"We've got to save the non-ice cap areas!"

    1. Re:As I've Said Before by palegray.net · · Score: 3, Funny

      You'd need to go back to a time when you can't blame humans.

      I still blame Canada. They obviously failed to hold on to the ice caps when they had the chance.

    2. Re:As I've Said Before by linhares · · Score: 5, Funny

      If you really, really wanted to save the polar ice caps, you'd create a time machine and travel back..say, 19,000 years ago. Back when the polar ice cap extended down into what is modern day Illinois. Which predates SUVs and industrialization by around...19,000 years or so.

      You could also increase the number of pirates.

    3. Re:As I've Said Before by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Funny

      This isn't offtopic... The mods must not have known that global warming is inversely proportional to the number of pirates on the high seas.

    4. Re:As I've Said Before by linhares · · Score: 2

      yeah, I know. But my links was from Berkeley. Stanford mods.

    5. Re:As I've Said Before by TapeCutter · · Score: 4, Insightful

      So by your reasoning we Aussies should not be arresting arsonists who are responsible for starting about 1/3 of all our bushfires. We should let them continue with their bussiness as usual because we know that the other 2/3 of bushfires are started by natural causes.

      BTW: This particular environmentalist doesn't care if you drive an SUV, a sherman tank, or a skateboard.

      --
      And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage? - Pink Floyd.
    6. Re:As I've Said Before by Stan+Vassilev · · Score: 1, Redundant

      If you really, really wanted to save the polar ice caps, you'd create a time machine and travel back..say, 19,000 years ago. Back when the polar ice cap extended down into what is modern day Illinois.

      Which predates SUVs and industrialization by around...19,000 years or so.

      Did I pull my gun? Yea.
      Did I shoot? Yepp.
      Did I shoot second time. Sure!
      Did I kill him? No!

      I mean, come on, average life expectancy is 66 years, and he was over 70, that's waaay long before I bought this gun.

      So, am I free to go now?

    7. Re:As I've Said Before by Beriaru · · Score: 2, Insightful

      We actively change our environment to our benefit. We light the night, warm our houses, deforest our countries, mine our resources...

      The argument of "it's natural" is stupid. If it's natural, modify nature. We are constantly doing it.
      Why? Because this change does NOT benefit us.
      So, nature doesn't want to change (or we don't know how to coerce her)?
      Well, at least don't help the change!

    8. Re:As I've Said Before by interkin3tic · · Score: 1

      That is one of the global warming metrics, right? Save the shrinking polar ice cap, right?

      Yes, you nailed it right on the head, it's all "ice melting = bad," no one has taken any nuance into consideration. You've singlehandedly bested every climatologist/whatever they call themselves.

    9. Re:As I've Said Before by FTWinston · · Score: 2, Insightful

      It ain't about the ice caps, some of us want to try and save the people.

    10. Re:As I've Said Before by Burnhard · · Score: 1, Flamebait

      Why? Because this change does NOT benefit us.

      Given that those who don't present papers supporting the orthodoxy are unlikely to get research grants or publication (at least it's very difficult to do so), I'm almost certain you haven't heard both sides of the argument with the required vigour in order to make any significant judgement either way. At the very least, we know one thing is true: more people die in cold weather than in hot weather. This, I submit, is incontestable.

      I would also point out that sea level is rising and has been since the end of the last ice-age. The current rise has not accelerated beyond the background mean. In other words, despite 10 years of no warming whatsoever (even though CO2 has increased), sea level is no higher than it would be in any case.

      My final point is one that's always missed. We have no idea at all whether or not these events are "natural" and if so at what frequency they happen. It seems to me that this is being pushed as "evidence of global warming", when in fact it's evidence of media gullibility in the face of environmentalist spin.

    11. Re:As I've Said Before by KDR_11k · · Score: 1

      Don't worry, at the rate the RIAA is working we'll have the planet frozen solid in a few more years.

      --
      Justice is the sheep getting arrested while an impartial judge declares the vote void.
    12. Re:As I've Said Before by digitalchinky · · Score: 1, Informative

      (Disclaimer: I'm Australian, now living elsewhere) You don't really know what an SUV is, and I say this not to you in particular, but to the general populous. In Australia you've mostly only ever seen those big arsed SUV's on TV. Sure, you might think the huge 4x4 the MILF next door takes the kids to school in is massive, but really, it's a bitty little Toyota, and it is a fair chunk smaller than the obnoxious Fords, Hummers, and tricked out Escalades you get elsewhere in the world. Australian's never really got in to the whole truck as a car thing, most people still kick around in their limited edition factory mold holden or ford (just like everyone else.)

      Other than this, I actually have nothing to add or take away from your post. Sorry.

    13. Re:As I've Said Before by TapeCutter · · Score: 1

      No need to apologise I understand what you are saying, a big SUV to an Aussie is a Nissan Patrol, but I'm an older Aussie and can remeber when F-100's were popular. There is also a streched Hummer near where I work, it has got to be the most ridiculous thing I've seen on the road since the goggomobil went out of fashion.

      I may be a 'greenie' but that doesn't mean I have tossed capitalisim out the window.

      My point was that individuals are too...ummm...individual...to make much difference by changing personal habits out of the kindness of their heart. Carbon needs an internationaly agreed and enforced CAP on total emmissions in order to create an economically and environmentally sound market to TRADE it. This is no different in concept to many existing internationally enforced rules on trade, travel, the environment, space exploration, slavery, etc.

      If the guy with an army surplus tank is prepared to pay for the damage it does to natural and made made infrastructure such as the road, the atmosphere, etc, (ie: willing to play by market rules) then he can knock himself out as far as I am concerned. Of course if CO2 emmissions, oil, ex army tanks, are all finite resources and everyone wants to drive one then it will become a very expensive proposition, matter of fact it already is. If he is not willing to play by the rules then he doesn't get the benifits of the market, it's quite simple really and has worked that way since humans started bartering Mamoth steaks for sex.

      You could introduce a carbon market to Aussie motorists without changing the price at the pump, simply replace the very high excise on fuel with carbon permits. After all the excise was supposedly introduced to reduce fuel compsumption during the oil crisis in the seventies. I believe the UK are in a similar position. However if you have been following KRuddy's carbon market legislation you will know it's not so much the oil industry that are putting up roadblocks, it's the coal industry who are panicking about their own future survival.

      --
      And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage? - Pink Floyd.
    14. Re:As I've Said Before by MrHanky · · Score: 1

      "more people die in cold weather"? Wouldn't that depend on location? A mild warming of the average temperature would probably feel great for most rich nations (why are wealthy nations mainly rather cold?), but what about the extremes? How does 52,000 dead compare to very few?

      It's expected that extreme weather conditions may become harsher with global warming. That's consistent with recent evidence.

      Your final point is a cliche. I don't understand how you can claim it's "always missed"; people like you are a dime a dozen.

    15. Re:As I've Said Before by one_in_a_milli0n · · Score: 0

      You could also increase the number of pirates.

      I would argue that their data is wrong and we have a lot more pirates.

    16. Re:As I've Said Before by capnkr · · Score: 1

      Sounds great. BUT...

      "The people" are the problem. There are just too damned many of them. And *that*, my friend, is the elephant in the room that very few address.

      When I see population control being a part of the discussion, then I'll know that the discussion is being real.

      Instead, most of the folks that are famous for publicly gnashing their teeth and pulling their hair about saving the world go home in their private jets and limos and make more babies, more future consumers that will use an ever-increasing amount of the limited natural resources of this planet.

      But hey, they feel better, so... {rolleyes}

      --
      "...there are some things that can beat smartness and foresight. Awkwardness and stupidity can." ~ Mark Twain
    17. Re:As I've Said Before by Piranhaa · · Score: 2, Funny

      Hey, you got your information all wrong! Everyone knows you can go to your local neighbourhood Tim Horton's and buy an Ice Cap for $2.99.

    18. Re:As I've Said Before by bruthasj · · Score: 1

      Perhaps Somalia will help curb the trend.

    19. Re:As I've Said Before by Peter+La+Casse · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Carbon needs an internationaly agreed and enforced CAP on total emmissions in order to create an economically and environmentally sound market to TRADE it.

      That will not produce a shortest path solution to the problem. The fastest, least expensive and most humane solution is to quickly get the developing world past the high-pollution stage of industrialization. There are essentially two ways to make cleaner energy sources cost-competitive with dirtier ones: make the dirty ones more expensive or make the cleaner ones less expensive. The latter will ruin fewer lives in the long run.

    20. Re:As I've Said Before by FTWinston · · Score: 1

      Yeah, they're a right bunch of goons. Couldn't agree more. But in all likelyhood, our population is going to reduce drasticaly. We can try to manage that, and ease the transition ... or we can horde all the food and stuff for ourselves, and leave the rest of the world to starve. I'm in camp #1, regardless of how ill-informed and thin-on-the-ground my company in that camp may be.

      Waiting for *the famouse people* people to start acting sensibly is, as I'm sure you're well aware, a complete waste of time. And time is short.

    21. Re:As I've Said Before by The_Quinn · · Score: 1

      ... save the people ... from comfort.

    22. Re:As I've Said Before by Acer500 · · Score: 1

      you might think the huge 4x4 the MILF next door takes the kids to school in is massive, but really, it's a bitty little Toyota, and it is a fair chunk smaller than the obnoxious Fords, Hummers, and tricked out Escalades you get elsewhere in the world.

      Surely, by "elsewhere in the world" you mean the US? I've NEVER seen an Escalade outside the US, and there are about a dozen Hummers between here (Uruguay) and Argentina (about 50 million people) and they're just curiosities, not something you expect to actually see or drive

      --
      There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.
    23. Re:As I've Said Before by Burnhard · · Score: 1

      Wouldn't that depend on location? A mild warming of the average temperature would probably feel great for most rich nations (why are wealthy nations mainly rather cold?), but what about the extremes?

      What isn't recorded are the annual deaths of people due to cold (perhaps poorer old folk who can't afford to heat their residence properly). These deaths happen usually in winter and are not related to any specific cooling event. I'm afraid the figure dwarfs the rather minor 52k (I can't find the figures right now, but will do so and post them later). Actually I'm rather surprised you're talking about extreme weather events, unless you're going to claim the 1998 El Nino was caused by man-made greenhouse gasses? Or like Gore, that Hurricane Katrina was an example? You might as well do as people like Fallwell did and blame it on Homosexuality - the amount of evidence either way is the same.

    24. Re:As I've Said Before by Ironchew · · Score: 1

      But in all likelyhood, our population is going to reduce drasticaly. We can try to manage that, and ease the transition ...

      This is Slashdot. We're kinda the vanguard of zero-offspring population control. We are the future.

    25. Re:As I've Said Before by sexconker · · Score: 1

      Then by the same token, the argument of preserving nature and the environment is retarded.

      Climate is changing.
      It's changing slowly.
      It's natural.
      Outrage about humans contributing to it is about the same as outrage over the AIG bonuses.
      Species will die out.
      People will die.
      There's nothing we can do about it.
      It still makes sense to not do stupid things to the environment, like poisoning it (and us) with shit like mercury, drugs, and slashdot posts.
      It never makes sense to ban/limit things that DON'T actually harm the environment, like CO2, DDT, or Chromium 6.

    26. Re:As I've Said Before by MrHanky · · Score: 1

      No, I'm not going to claim the El Nino is caused by global warming, and I'd appreciate if you could refrain from strawman attacks. It's not that hard. Really.

      And I don't believe Al Gore has claimed Katrina was caused by global warming either. If he did, it should be easily proven. I've found that he's claimed that "the scientific community is warning us that the average hurricane will continue to get stronger because of global warming", which is correct: there has been reports making that claim. Not made more frequent, nor caused by, but made stronger by global warming. Perhaps you should try finding evidence against actual claims instead of debunking your own inventions.

    27. Re:As I've Said Before by Burnhard · · Score: 1

      I've found that he's claimed that "the scientific community is warning us that the average hurricane will continue to get stronger because of global warming", which is correct

      Actually, the reverse is true. Recent scientific papers show that hurricane activity has decreased during the recent warming, not increased:

      Using a well-accepted metric called the Accumulated Cyclone Energy index or ACE for short (Bell and Chelliah 2006), which has been used by Klotzbach (2006) and Emanuel (2005) (PDI is analogous to ACE), and most recently by myself in Maue (2009), simple analysis shows that 24-month running sums of global ACE or hurricane energy have plummeted to levels not seen in 30 years.

      You are sadly mistaken in your attempt to exhonerate Gore from alarmism. Here is his speech to the Sierra Summit in 2005:

      Al Gore Speech 9/9/05

      This quote, from that speech (which was about Katrina), can be found about 2/3rds of the way down:

      Ladies and gentlemen, the warnings about global warming have been extremely clear for a long time. We are facing a global climate crisis. It is deepening. We are entering a period of consequences.

      While telling me to check my facts you have made the error of not checking your own.

    28. Re:As I've Said Before by MrHanky · · Score: 1

      I've found that he's claimed that "the scientific community is warning us that the average hurricane will continue to get stronger because of global warming", which is correct

      Actually, the reverse is true. Recent scientific papers show that hurricane activity has decreased during the recent warming, not increased:

      Even if that was relevant, it would still be wrong.

      1) "Why the record low ACE? During the past 2 years +, the Earthâ(TM)s climate has cooled under the effects of a dramatic La Nina episode. The Pacific Ocean basin typically sees much weaker hurricanes that indeed have shorter lifecycles and therefore â" less ACE." So: it's not related to warming. In fact it's caused by a natural cooling unrelated to global warming.

      2) "Under global warming scenarios, hurricane intensity is expected to increase (on the order of a few percent), but MANY questions remain as to how much, where, and when."

      3) "The notion that the overall global hurricane energy or ACE has collapsed does not contradict the above papers [about increasing hurricane energy due to warming] but provides an additional, perhaps less publicized piece of the puzzle."

      This is all from the article you quoted, all in direct contradiction to what you're trying to make out of it.

      While telling me to check my facts you have made the error of not checking your own.

      Again, you're inventing stuff. I said: "I don't believe Al Gore has claimed Katrina was caused by global warming". You try to refute that by pretending I said something completely different, as if I made a general attempt to "exhonerate Gore from" a not particularly well defined accusation of "alarmism" that somehow popped up only after I was supposed to defend him from it. Well, I didn't.

      I'll give you one thing: your intellectual dishonesty is extremely well developed. You should go into politics.

    29. Re:As I've Said Before by Burnhard · · Score: 1

      So: it's not related to warming. In fact it's caused by a natural cooling unrelated to global warming.

      So you think that all cooling events are natural, but all warming events are man-made? This is precisely the alarmist position as far as I can see. Before the negative PDO, there was a positive one, peaking in 1998. Is this a "natural" event or not?

      2) "Under global warming scenarios, hurricane intensity is expected to increase (on the order of a few percent), but MANY questions remain as to how much, where, and when."

      Indeed, simply a statement of what is expected from warming scenarios. The actual reality is different. That is the point of the article.

      "I don't believe Al Gore has claimed Katrina was caused by global warming

      There is nothing wrong with my English language comprehension. You contradict yourself. I have corrected you by showing you how he has attempted to link AGW with Katrina.

    30. Re:As I've Said Before by MrHanky · · Score: 1

      So: it's not related to warming. In fact it's caused by a natural cooling unrelated to global warming.

      So you think that all cooling events are natural, but all warming events are man-made? This is precisely the alarmist position as far as I can see. Before the negative PDO, there was a positive one, peaking in 1998. Is this a "natural" event or not?

      No, and I didn't claim that. There are natural variations like there always have been. Some years will be warmer than the one preceding, others will be colder. Again, you choose to attack a convenient strawman.

      2) "Under global warming scenarios, hurricane intensity is expected to increase (on the order of a few percent), but MANY questions remain as to how much, where, and when."

      Indeed, simply a statement of what is expected from warming scenarios. The actual reality is different. That is the point of the article.

      No, that's not the point of the article, and it specifically says the drop in hurricane activity is linked with a recent cooling.

      "I don't believe Al Gore has claimed Katrina was caused by global warming

      There is nothing wrong with my English language comprehension. You contradict yourself. I have corrected you by showing you how he has attempted to link AGW with Katrina.

      No, you haven't corrected anything. You have yet to show where Al Gore said Katrina was caused by global warming. In your quotation, Al Gore spoke about a president who was unwilling to heed warnings, both when it came to global warming in general and to NOLA specifically, ignoring warnings that the levees would break, and then later claim that "Nobody could have predicted that the levees would break".

      Again, you have shown nothing but your own dishonesty.

    31. Re:As I've Said Before by Xabraxas · · Score: 1

      Your missing a huge point. Global warming doesn't just mean that we'll all be a few degrees warmer. Entire ecosystems will collapse, especially colder regions where the life there depends on the cold. Ocean currents and hurricane activity could be drastically altered leading to a lot of unforseen changes in weather, including getting a lot colder in some places. If the ice caps melt the sun won't reflect off them anymore and the Earth will heat up at an even faster rate which has the ability to cause mass extinctions, lowering diversity, and leaving the possibility of endangering the entire human race. We know that burning fossil fuels isn't good for the environment. Even if you aren't sure that we are emitting enough to cause a problem don't you think it would be a good idea in this case to err on the side of not potentially annihilating our habitat and species?

      --
      Time makes more converts than reason
    32. Re:As I've Said Before by An+Onerous+Coward · · Score: 1

      There's some truth in there, but I think you're missing the fact that the two approaches can be tackled simultaneously. A cap and trade system would be a quick way to wring the inefficient CO2 use out of the developed economies.

      You also miss an important trend: as the cap and trade focuses research on low-CO2 energy generation technologies in the developed world, those technologies will mature quickly, and be available for developing countries as well. It's not obvious that every country needs to go through a "coal phase", any more than they need to go through a land line phase on their way to cell phones.

      Perhaps we could do a cap and trade system where only the developed countries participated directly, but they could get credit for subsidizing green tech in the developing world.

      But the fact that most of the increase in CO2 output over the next 50 years will come from developing nations is hard to deny. They have the increasing population and they'll have the standard of living increases. We can't ask them not to develop. But we could be lucky, and they'll discover routes to development that lead to a more sustainable end game.

      --

      You want the truthiness? You can't handle the truthiness!

    33. Re:As I've Said Before by Peter+La+Casse · · Score: 1

      There's some truth in there, but I think you're missing the fact that the two approaches can be tackled simultaneously. A cap and trade system would be a quick way to wring the inefficient CO2 use out of the developed economies.

      I don't think they can be developed simultaneously because a cap and trade system slows economic growth, and growth funds technological development. Compound growth is so powerful that a small percentage difference adds up to a lot of resources over time. These problems won't be solved by slowing economic growth, they'll be solved by inventing replacement technologies.

      Plus, the only way to create a global cap and trade system is by force, and I don't endorse going to war to convince China, India and others to participate. It is easier and more ethical to coax them to do what we want by making it profitable for them, and that will happen faster if we don't shackle our own economy.

    34. Re:As I've Said Before by sumdumass · · Score: 1

      The problem with carbon caps and all is that it hurts the people who need it the most and it is totally arbitrary to begin with.

      Anyways, so what happens when you have to make a couple extra trips to the store or decide to go on vacation, the rich will just purchase more credits and live life like normal, the poor, well, they will have to go to work, is it all the sudden going to cost the entire weeks pay just to go to work? They will have to do without trips to the store for food or medical supplies, have to do without trips to the pool in 100 degree heat or the public library, and you nor anyone wanting the power to limit people in this way have the ability to say that won't happen. Public transportation is non-existent in most places, it will burn way more carbon if it is shoved into place. Where I live, there would be one person on a 6 ton bus floating down the country roads for 5 or 6 miles or am I supposed to only do things when the government schedule says I can?

      I don't think people understand the amount of freedom they are/will be giving up. I know this is because you and everyone else thinks your part or emissions isn't the bad ones, these rules and laws will only effect those idiots ruining the planet and not you. If Carbon is the problem, then why would anyone attempting to correct the problem not attack all carbon and just that emitted by the people you think are bad. Almost every government uses any excuse possible to increase a tax and most government politicians who want to limit tax collections end up in the minorities. It's all about power and the government's control over it's subjects and you think some detached international regulation is going to care about the poor or anyone not rich in the process.

      That's the worse part about it, the rich are immune from carbon caps and carbon taxes. They will get to live life any way they want to. So what we end up with is poor people trying to decide whether to go to the store out of routine to get Junior medicine or to see a doctor or leave him suffer so you can go to work, get paid, and keep food on the table for him. The rich on the other hand, they will just toss another million on the fire and use that as an excuse for needing more profits from the businesses they own which is why your not getting your next raise.

      The answer is, either create something that leaves our dependency on carbon, or at least carbon that has been stored underground for 2 million years or start preparing for global warming and make adjustments when it happens. At least then, the most people who will be effected will be the rich who own all the beach front property. Every thing effecting humans can adapt and evolve. That's what the damn theory of evolution is about and why we are the dominant creature on the planet. People need to get off this religious love story in that earth has to stay the same way it always has and face the realities of what they are expecting.

    35. Re:As I've Said Before by sumdumass · · Score: 1

      OK, here is a question, and seriously, I'm not sure how your implying it or if it is just a redundent setup that your not noticing.

      If the ice caps melt the sun won't reflect off them anymore and the Earth will heat up at an even faster rate which has the ability to cause mass extinctions, lowering diversity, and leaving the possibility of endangering the entire human race.

      Ok here is goes. The Co2 global warming model claims that the Co2 is absorbing the heat of sunlight instead of allowing it to reflect back to the sun. This is fine and all assuming that you believe the amount of gasses in the atmosphere is the problem and that such a minute amount can of atmospheric gases can have such a devastating impact. For the purpose of this question, we will assume it's close enough to be true.

      So how is the ICE melting from global warming when the air temp rarely gets above freezing and the second part, if the Excess Co2 and carbon is already absorbing the heat. what is so different about the land absorbing a portion of it and reflecting it back? Granted, land warming will have an effect on ocean currents and weather patterns around the area and world, but at night, the heat reflects back anyways even if there are 6 months between day and night at the true poles, that isn't really the case in lower latitudes. It would seem that the heat from the land would make the night air warmer for a while but then all the stored heat would be lost/dissipated from time to time.

      In sort, the possibilities for mass extinction seem no more then with the ICE but that doesn't even account for the existing land mass warmth around both poles (polar region) from volcanic activity that is present as we speak.

      As for the rest of what you mentioned, well, global warming isn't supposed to collapse entire ecosystems for hundreds to thousands of years. In fact, the change is so slow that I'm not sure why the adapting new ecosystems aren't being considered. It isn't like we are going to wake up one day and find everything gone. If the theory of evolution is close to being correct, collapse isn't really the words we need, it would be more like shift/change/influence/positive/negative.

      And for

      We know that burning fossil fuels isn't good for the environment. Even if you aren't sure that we are emitting enough to cause a problem don't you think it would be a good idea in this case to err on the side of not potentially annihilating our habitat and species?

      Isn't good and bad for are two entirely different statements. Now, here is the point of contention I have. The not good could actually refer to negligent amounts of ill effects. Me sitting on the porch watching the sunset is not good for the environment, but it isn't harming it any more then the porch being there and me being alive anyways. So if it's not good, or even if it is a little (or a lot) harmful, then why is the focus on doing something all about taking money in the forms of caps and making things more expensive. It is actually about making things more expensive or off shoring them to countries without caps like Europe has done. But Solar and wind are more expensive (about 3 times at current US prices), Electric vehicles and plug in electric hybrids require investment up front not considering the useful life of existing vehicles let alone the reduced life of the hybrids and electric vehicles.

      The problem isn't so much as doing something to err on the safe side, it's the costs in $dollars plus the loss of convenience and freedoms that all the current political solutions are coming with. If carbon is capped in a country, how are you going to open a factory and exploit your ideas to make money on them when all the existing factories have all the credits? If your allotted so much petrol for your car, what happens when junior gets sick and you have to make extra trips "off schedule" to get him to the doctors office or to purchase medicine, will you then hav

    36. Re:As I've Said Before by Xabraxas · · Score: 1

      So how is the ICE melting from global warming when the air temp rarely gets above freezing

      I hope you're not seriously suggesting that ICE isn't melting at the caps. As for why...It's quite simple actually. It's the warm WATER not the air.

      if the Excess Co2 and carbon is already absorbing the heat. what is so different about the land absorbing a portion of it and reflecting it back?

      A lot of things. First if the caps were gone... I hope you don't live in a coastal city because that would be under water. Second, ICE refects sunlight much more efficiently than land and just the change in where the heat is will fuck up the entire world's current ecosystem.

      I don't feel like responding to the rest of the post because it's the same old garbage about how it will take years to happen and it could be a good thing...blah blah blah. None of it is scientific. You people always claim climatotlogists are fear mongering but in the same breath you fear monger how going green will bankrupt our country with absolutely no evidence. Pot...meet kettle.

      --
      Time makes more converts than reason
    37. Re:As I've Said Before by sumdumass · · Score: 1

      I hope you're not seriously suggesting that ICE isn't melting at the caps. As for why...It's quite simple actually. It's the warm WATER not the air.

      Lol.. No, I'm suggesting that it's not melting because Co2 is causing the atmosphere to warm up by 2 degrees F.

      As for the warm water, there are many causes of that including the volcanic activity at the polar caps.

      A lot of things. First if the caps were gone... I hope you don't live in a coastal city because that would be under water. Second, ICE refects sunlight much more efficiently than land and just the change in where the heat is will fuck up the entire world's current ecosystem.

      First, the catastrophic floods would be covered by the other crap like the weather changes and stuff wouldn't it? Second, the entire worlds ecosystem isn't static, it's continually evolving and adapting and changing. The worlds ecosystem would be different but fucked up would only be a relative term to an arbitrary point in time. The earth's ecosystem is fucked right now compared to 20 million years ago. Finally, the point I was attempting to extract from you was what will be so catastrophic about the ice caps disappearing that the entire human race is endangered of mass extinction?

      I'm willing to bet that a portion of what your not realizing is that even with the polar caps melted, it isn't likely that we would see a terribly huge increase in temp from it. Without the ice reflecting the sun back, the moisture content in the atmosphere will be higher, but the nature of the polar caps which is evidence with the air rarely reaching above freezing will be that of a state of constant cloud cover and snow/ice storms. This right there will reflect a lot of the heat back and prevent it from even reaching the ground in the first place.

      I don't feel like responding to the rest of the post because it's the same old garbage about how it will take years to happen and it could be a good thing...blah blah blah. None of it is scientific. You people always claim climatotlogists are fear mongering but in the same breath you fear monger how going green will bankrupt our country with absolutely no evidence. Pot...meet kettle.

      Well, if you payed attention to the rest of the post, you will see that it was about NOT FIXING THE PROBLEM in the first place while taking yours and mine as well as our children and their future generation's freedoms away. I don't have a problem with doing something, as long as something is at least as effective as the costs of implementing it are. I'm sorry that I'm not of the church of global warming and fall goo goo eyed in support of anything labeled green.

      And yes, that's the only damn thing that can logically be deduced about people like you. Your more worried about implementing something at any costs just to say you did but you have no clue to if it will work at fixing global warming or not. I have heard all the hype that it will force people to invent new ways to create energy when the suffering is bad enough and historically, that has always lead to revolutions- not innovative solutions to perceived problems. But the bigger question is, why even wait? Why must we do all this loss of freedom in some maddening attempt to force the populous of the world (or should I say the rich nations of the world) to invent something that simply doesn't exist today when the proper solution is to have the governments of the world unite in the principle of finding less impacting energy sources by collecting teams of scientist and offering the results royalty free. Then we can skip all the bullshit about taking freedoms away, we can skip all the making the rich pay, we can skip all of the bullshit required to make people suffer enough to invent new processes for creating energy or improving existing processes and just get the damn job done in the first place.

      This is where the government control comes in. Your

    38. Re:As I've Said Before by Xabraxas · · Score: 1

      As for the warm water, there are many causes of that including the volcanic activity at the polar caps..

      So volcanoes are responsible for the caps melting in both the north and south pole at the same time when this has never been seen before (in human history) on either pole? That sounds very unlikely.

      First, the catastrophic floods would be covered by the other crap like the weather changes and stuff wouldn't it? Second, the entire worlds ecosystem isn't static, it's continually evolving and adapting and changing. The worlds ecosystem would be different but fucked up would only be a relative term to an arbitrary point in time. The earth's ecosystem is fucked right now compared to 20 million years ago. Finally, the point I was attempting to extract from you was what will be so catastrophic about the ice caps disappearing that the entire human race is endangered of mass extinction?

      It's true that the climate has changed in the past and the Earth itself will survive and I have no doubt that life itself will survive but drastic changes in ecosystems in a very short time has proven to cause mass extinctions. We should be very worried about this. It's extremely naive to think we'll survive just because of our resourcefulness as a species. This is a real challenge.

      I already answering you question as to why humans will be endangered. A lack of diversity can have devastating consequences like a disease wiping out entire crops of food or animal species that are depended upon by another species in turn destroying that population. It is very likely that diversity will be diminished by global warming as it affects the Earth as a whole, altering virtually every ecosystem simultaneously. A good example of this is Nepal where some regions are seeing outbreaks of malaria where it never was warm enough for mosquitos to live before. Just think about how much disease a mosquito can spread and how much that can affect all mammals in that area. There are so many layers to the global warming problem that it's childishly simplistic to think that everything will stay the same except that your each front property in Maine is going to skyrocket in value because it's summer year round.

      Well, if you payed attention to the rest of the post, you will see that it was about NOT FIXING THE PROBLEM in the first place while taking yours and mine as well as our children and their future generation's freedoms away. I don't have a problem with doing something, as long as something is at least as effective as the costs of implementing it are. I'm sorry that I'm not of the church of global warming and fall goo goo eyed in support of anything labeled green.

      All I read was more speculation about the costs without any analyzation of the benefits economically. Personally it frustrates me that people are not behind green technology because any sane person knows that fossil fuels are not an endless resource and regardless of what you believe about human impact on the environment we are going to have to start worrying about our finite resources at some point and it might as well be now. Economically, for the US at least, I can only see this being a good thing for so many reasons. The United States' economy thrives on innovation and pumping money into green technology solves a lot of problems in my opinion is a good thing. If we don't start producing something new in this country things can only get worse. We have the worst trade gap of any country in the world. We might as well ride the green wave and start investing in green technology. Whether you like it or not that is the direction the modern world is heading in and we might as well capitalize on it.

      As for cap and trade I don't know where you get the idea that I'm for it. I never even mentioned it. Most of your post seems to be based around something I never even mentioned. Cap and trade looks like it got cut off at the knees anyway so I don't know why you are still bitching about it. There are a lot of ways we can promote green, and more efficient technology without resorting to cap and trade.

      --
      Time makes more converts than reason
    39. Re:As I've Said Before by An+Onerous+Coward · · Score: 1

      I'm not willing to go to war with China either. Bribery would be the better course, as I proposed.

      Every time I have this discussion, people throw out alarming rhetoric like "shackling our economy." Frankly, I don't see it. There are so many ways to *make* money off reducing CO2 emissions*, that I don't see the price of CO2 permits ever getting that high.

      Case in point: Sulfur dioxide. Back in the 1990s, acid rain was a problem. Government implements a cap-and-trade system. Power industry screams bloody murder, offering up doomsday scenarios. They said the industry would be bankrupted, that the permits would auction off for an industry-killing $1200/ton. The country would go dark, and even the best of us would resort to cannibalism to make ends meet.

      Government goes ahead with the auction. The actual auction price comes in around $300/ton. Emissions are down by 40%, and the program is now expected to cost about 1/4th what the government initially estimated (those estimates themselves being far lower than what industry was claiming). I expect CO2's story to follow about the same course.

      Further, if we know that the demand for green technology is only going to rise, letting other countries take the lead assures that in twenty years we'll be a green importer, not a green exporter. We're still scrambling to catch up with the Danish on manufacturing wind turbines. When China gets rich enough to want to replace its coal plants with CSP, who do you want building it for them?

      If the goal is to transition to green technology as quickly as possible, it seems obvious to me that slightly slower growth heavily directed towards the exploration and refinement of low-CO2 technology is going to get us there a lot faster than a strategy of maximum, undirected growth.

      * Example: The Empire State Building is about to undergo a $20M refit, which they expect to save about $4.4M/year in energy costs, reduce energy consumption by 40%, and eliminate hundreds of thousands of tons of CO2.

      --

      You want the truthiness? You can't handle the truthiness!

    40. Re:As I've Said Before by sumdumass · · Score: 1

      So volcanoes are responsible for the caps melting in both the north and south pole at the same time when this has never been seen before (in human history) on either pole? That sounds very unlikely.

      As unlikely as changes in the atmosphere of less then .28% (.0028) of the total green house gasses in the atmosphere is going to cause catastrophic issues when it doesn't even bring the air temp above freezing? You seem to be wanting to claim one is absurd when ignoring that absurdity of your prefered explaination. When you consider the water vapor which is a greenhouse gas, man made Co2 makes up a tiny fraction of the total.

      But considering that the recorded history of man is short, considering the ability to seek these places and return alive is a recent feat in the history of man, considering that the discoveries of volcanic activity at both poles, including in the oceans surrounding the poles (Antarctica actually has volcanoes under the ice shelf on land that has melted the ice and we have measured the depths of the pools of water related to it), do you really think that idea is more absurd then Co2? Or is it at least worth investigating- even if it is blasphemy? You know, god forbid that something other then those bastard man made Co2 gasses being behind anything right?

      It's true that the climate has changed in the past and the Earth itself will survive and I have no doubt that life itself will survive but drastic changes in ecosystems in a very short time has proven to cause mass extinctions. We should be very worried about this. It's extremely naive to think we'll survive just because of our resourcefulness as a species. This is a real challenge.

      Now wait a minute, your getting a little presumptuous as well as alarmist here. Nothing has been shown to suggest that neither of us nor wildlife will_not_be able to adapt. From all the rational accounts I can find, the entire shift is going to take centuries if not more before it's all done. It will be a gradual experience, some life forms might not make it, but others will adapt and thrive. As for man, well, we can build levies, dams, bridges, we can irrigate fields, control the saline buildup of those fields, create compost, use chemicals to control diseases, pests, illnesses and many, many more things. Even without all that, we lived through the little ice age, watched the middle east move from a thriving garden to a wasted desert, survived plagues, drought, heat waves, cold snaps, diseases, and much more of what can be expected from the apocolyptic scenario you describe. We even have nuclear wastelands that are thriving nature troves with wildlife and plant life more then intact. To think man or nature can't or will not survive the polar caps melting is a little like ignoring the history of man, evolution, and everything else.

      I already answering you question as to why humans will be endangered. A lack of diversity can have devastating consequences like a disease wiping out entire crops of food or animal species that are depended upon by another species in turn destroying that population. It is very likely that diversity will be diminished by global warming as it affects the Earth as a whole, altering virtually every ecosystem simultaneously. A good example of this is Nepal where some regions are seeing outbreaks of malaria where it never was warm enough for mosquitos to live before. Just think about how much disease a mosquito can spread and how much that can affect all mammals in that area. There are so many layers to the global warming problem that it's childishly simplistic to think that everything will stay the same except that your each front property in Maine is going to skyrocket in value because it's summer year round.

      Genetically engineered crops, pesticides and the old fashioned mosquito netting, antibiotics, are all just a few high tech and low tech solutions. However

    41. Re:As I've Said Before by Peter+La+Casse · · Score: 1

      Every time I have this discussion, people throw out alarming rhetoric like "shackling our economy." Frankly, I don't see it.

      Yeah, "shackling" is hyperbole. But cap and trade (at least as proposed in the US) would increase everybody's energy costs enough to notice, and that would have a ripple effect. It wouldn't force us all to start growing vegetables in our front lawns to survive, but everybody would spend a couple hundred dollars a month more, and that adds up to a lot across the entire country.

      The reality is that energy costs are going to go up anyway. The economy will recover and demand from the developing world will increase, so there is still plenty of economic incentive to develop new energy sources even without cap and trade.

      If the goal is to transition to green technology as quickly as possible, it seems obvious to me that slightly slower growth heavily directed towards the exploration and refinement of low-CO2 technology is going to get us there a lot faster than a strategy of maximum, undirected growth.

      "Heavily directed" research is suboptimal because nobody knows what strategies will eventually work or where they'll come from. "Maximum" is good because a smaller fraction of a larger economy can be a larger absolute expenditure. "Undirected" is good because it minimizes the harm from bad direction and maximizes the number of solutions being actively pursued.

    42. Re:As I've Said Before by Xabraxas · · Score: 1

      As unlikely as changes in the atmosphere of less then .28% (.0028) of the total green house gasses in the atmosphere is going to cause catastrophic issues when it doesn't even bring the air temp above freezing? You seem to be wanting to claim one is absurd when ignoring that absurdity of your prefered explaination. When you consider the water vapor which is a greenhouse gas, man made Co2 makes up a tiny fraction of the total.

      All of your points have been debunked time and time again or are unproven theories. Realclimate has an answer for all the bunk you have espoused so far, including the BS nugget you just crapped.

      Now wait a minute, your getting a little presumptuous as well as alarmist here. Nothing has been shown to suggest that neither of us nor wildlife will_not_be able to adapt. From all the rational accounts I can find, the entire shift is going to take centuries if not more before it's all done

      Maybe you should read up on the mass extinctions that have precedeed us.

      Genetically engineered crops, pesticides and the old fashioned mosquito netting, antibiotics, are all just a few high tech and low tech solutions. However, you did not say how no polar ice caps would effect either of those outside or above all the other doom and gloom warned about without them disappearing. In fact, nothing drastically will change if the ice caps do disappear outside of what is already claimed to be forecast. Nothing magical will happen if we lose the polar caps, it will just be more of the same that we are already warned about. In other words, your just being an alarmist.

      At this point I'm going to stop arguing. It's obvious we are not going to agree. I just don't understand how you can call me an alarmist when you and people like you are fear mongering just as much about the economy. It's a bit hypocritical. There is literally mounds of evidence that support global warming and the damage it can cause but if you choose to ignore it for political reasons then so be it. It's just the nature of science. In ten more years or so no one will be questioning it. I guess turning a blind eye to the fact that the ice caps are in worse shape than they have ever been in human history is something some people are going to continue to do until their own house is under water.

      Anyways, I'm bitching about it because no matter what the truth about global warming is, the political solutions simply don't address it. But you seem to be encouraging the acceptance of anything labeled "green" under the guise of if we are wrong, lets be wrong about the bad stuff about to happen.

      Wow, another argument that I didn't make. You should stick to things I have actually said instead of continuing to make up arguments out of whole cloth, but then you would only be left with lame arguments that have been debunked years ago but true believers continue to cling to. Global warming deniers remind me of creationists. They'll find one otherwise credible scientist and hang their whole argument on his/her lack of understanding on the subject or their complete lunacy.

      --
      Time makes more converts than reason
    43. Re:As I've Said Before by sumdumass · · Score: 1

      All of your points have been debunked time and time again or are unproven theories. Realclimate has an answer for all the bunk you have espoused so far, including the BS nugget you just crapped.

      Oh god, please refer me to something other then your holey site that uses the debunked works to justify debunking the work that debunks it. And no, none of my points have been properly addressed at all, and certainly not in the context I stated. I posit that your length in time to reply was because you were looking for links to such debunking that wasn't there.

      At this point I'm going to stop arguing. It's obvious we are not going to agree. I just don't understand how you can call me an alarmist when you and people like you are fear mongering just as much about the economy. It's a bit hypocritical.

      You don't understand the entire point of my posting do you? You are claiming doom and gloom and ignore or brush aside anything that might mitigate that scenario or even calls to better understand them in order to make an open ended claim about something in the distant future that likely won't ever effect anyone alive today outside of the variances in storm strengths and such that we have lived with out entire life and claim that something has to be done about it right now. Then when that something directly effects you and me, and some of us look at how it is going to directly effect us, you call me an alarmist. But when given the opportunity to debunk what I claimed will be the effects of the political solutions being thrown about, you just ignore those effects and claim you don't support that approach without offering what you do support. And when asked the questions of why does it have to happen right this minute instead of when advances are actually present that will limit the harms to me and the economy I use, there is no answer, just a do something now. Do you seriously suggest that I'm as irrational as you? Do you really think I'm hypocritical or that our positions are equal in stature?

      There is literally mounds of evidence that support global warming and the damage it can cause but if you choose to ignore it for political reasons then so be it.

      And those mounds of evidence all rest on one single point that has never been proven. The point that a shift in less the one half of one percent of the atmospheric green house gasses can actually provide the end game scenarios you describe and that man kind can do nothing about it except listen to you. And the worst problem about it is when I point out that the political solutions on the table do nothing to actually address the problems of pouring the GHGs that you claim are the basis for your doom and gloom scenario, you want to ignore that and claim I'm the bad guy for not heeding your warnings.

      Is it really too much to ask or so unreasonable that if we have to give up freedoms and work harder to pay for things we already and normally use and can already afford, that we make sure the so called solutions actually address the problems and do something about it? For fucks sake, why is that such a spot for brain washed people like you? Why must we ignore any consequences of the solutions and not pay attention to if they will actually do anything and just accept them? I know that what you want with global warming- just accept it- don't question it- it's the one true religion, but your little game is more important when it actually effects us and not some mythical time in the future.

      It's just the nature of science. In ten more years or so no one will be questioning it. I guess turning a blind eye to the fact that the ice caps are in worse shape than they have ever been in human history is something some people are going to continue to do until their own house is under water.

      We are in the "in ten more years" stage of the last prophecy that hasn't panned out. By

  8. Re:Not that it matters ... by linhares · · Score: 1

    So what? It hasn't been there forever. See, there's a natural progression on the planet. Warm. Cold. Warm. Cold. It's warming up, BFD. Now, I'm gunna drive my SUV 65 miles to work tomorrow and feel ok about it.

    While you'll probably get +5 funny, your kids will one day give you -1 troll, my friend.

  9. Re:Not that it matters ... by linhares · · Score: 3, Informative

    Oh, and a few inches (or feet) of ocean won't bother me. I have no beach property, nor do I intend to. Last I checked, I'm about 950 feet above sea level..

    From the FA: "While the break-up will have no direct impact on sea level because the ice is floating"....

  10. The Ice Bridge's Twit by linhares · · Score: 1

    OMG!!! I'm off to the oceans!!! Otherwise boring day *sight*

    1. Re:The Ice Bridge's Twit by palegray.net · · Score: 1

      Otherwise boring day *sight*

      Were you intending to indicate that you've sighted the floating ice bridge already? Outstanding! That damn thing must be riding on the Outer-Gotta-Get-North-Quick Current.

    2. Re:The Ice Bridge's Twit by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      That was its twit.

  11. Whew, no problem then by ryanov · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Thank god we have the average mook on Slashdot or I might have thought this were cause for concern. I guess all of the scientists who have agreed that there are man-made effects on climate are completely incorrect, but this website is the last bastion of sanity?

    1. Re:Whew, no problem then by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0
      You want to discuss this seriously? You must be new here.

      Judging by the response so far, I'm detecting nervous laughter all around.

    2. Re:Whew, no problem then by TapeCutter · · Score: 4, Interesting

      The intellectual coward has it the wrong way around. The "It's natural" red-herring is stage two of the standard psudeo-skeptical denial that comes when they can no longer deny the globe is warming to a particular audience. The next stages include, "it's good for us", "economic armageden" and "god wouldn't allow it to happen".

      --
      And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage? - Pink Floyd.
    3. Re:Whew, no problem then by Taikutusu · · Score: 0, Troll

      Because it's been proven. Beyond all shadow of a doubt. Yep, all those scientists that disagree, we'll just sweep them under a rug.

    4. Re:Whew, no problem then by Cassius+Corodes · · Score: 1

      [citation needed]

      --
      Control is an illusion, order our comforting lie. From chaos, through chaos, into chaos we fly
    5. Re:Whew, no problem then by biscuitlover · · Score: 4, Insightful

      All those scientists that disagree? Sure, there's some disagreement, but we're talking about a very small percentage of scientists here.

      The fact that a lot of people are happy to selectively discount a clear majority of scientific opinion worldwide because it doesn't fit in with their world view or political standpoint never ceases to amaze me.

    6. Re:Whew, no problem then by phantomfive · · Score: 1, Interesting

      Then you come to the realization that global warming is going to happen no matter how bad it is, because there is no way the world will come together and do what's necessary to reduce the carbon dioxide output enough to make a difference. Even if you think your country would, others wouldn't.

      So, sit back and enjoy the show! It gonna be exciting! Or maybe it won't. But either way, we're going to find out.

      --
      Qxe4
    7. Re:Whew, no problem then by verloren · · Score: 1

      And then, of course, there's the final stage - "Well it's too late to do anything about it now, if only scientists had warned us sooner".

    8. Re:Whew, no problem then by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      different coward here: to my knowledge southern hemispheric warming occurs during an ice age. discuss.

    9. Re:Whew, no problem then by TapeCutter · · Score: 1

      "Yep, all those scientists that disagree, we'll just sweep them under a rug."

      Get back to us when you have looked under the rug and asked one for their name, hypothisis and evidence. Don't forget to check the couch there could be a couple hiding there as well.

      --
      And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage? - Pink Floyd.
    10. Re:Whew, no problem then by Yvanhoe · · Score: 1

      This is strange... In every climate change report I have seen, people talk about the antarctic region as an anomaly (contrary to most of the globe's surface, temperatures are decreasing there). So how does this fit ? I first thought it was about the arctic region, which has seen quite some change these years, but the antarctic region ? Isn't it caused by some sort of tectonic activity like another poster suggested ?

      --
      The Wise adapts himself to the world. The Fool adapts the world to himself. Therefore, all progress depends on the Fool.
    11. Re:Whew, no problem then by Mark+Hood · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Someone once brought this home to me quite nicely - he said if 9 out of 10 doctors said your child had appendicitis, and only 1 said it was trapped gas, would you go home and 'wait and see'?
      Even if you were nervous about the risks of an operation, the risks of ignoring it are much worse - if it turns out to be appendicitis.

      Sure, it might be nothing, just like global warming might not be our fault, but would you take the chance?

      Mark

      --
      Liked this comment? Why not buy me something nice
    12. Re:Whew, no problem then by khayman80 · · Score: 5, Informative

      Most scientists agree that humans have contributed a small change to the climate, but all agree that the majority of the change is due to natural cycles (solar, long term atmospheric fluctuations etc). The only people claiming that humans are the sole or majority cause of climate warming/change are involved in politics, vote gathering, and selling 'technology' concepts to 'save the planet' in order to bilk the public out of money.

      I am a climate scientist. I've never been in politics and I've never sold anything (professional student here). I also think you're completely wrong. My experiences at the 2008 Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union are that most (9/10) of the scientists I met agree with the IPCC report on abrupt climate change.

      But you've made an even more fundamental mistake. Science isn't democratic-- it's about evidence. Open up the IPCC reports yourself and focus on what's really important, instead of trying to count how many people are on each side.

      For example, Vostok ice core data confirms that for nearly half a million years, the climate has changed cyclically. But in all that time, the maximum CO2 concentration never went above 300 ppm. (It's hit higher levels millions of years ago, but that was a slow and gradual change. Plus the Earth was essentially a different planet back then, with a different solar luminosity and biosphere so comparisons across that much time are tricky.)

      You're right to say that natural variations are evident in the data, but the most prominent cycles over geological time are governed by (among other effects) Milankovitch cycles which are caused by periodic variations in the earth's orbit.

      But, CO2 concentrations are at 380 ppm today. That's a level it hasn't hit in the last half million years. If we're seeing natural variability alone, it's quite a coincidence that it occurs right when we started excavating fossil fuels to fuel a billion cars.

      Plus, the Vostok data is a little difficult to analyze in this manner, but it seems like at Vostok the CO2 always increased 600 years AFTER the temperature started to increase. At least, that's the way it used to work. Right now, the CO2 concentration is at an unprecedented level but the temperature is barely above normal. Again, that suggests that we're not facing natural climate change, we're dealing with anthropogenic abrupt climate change.

    13. Re:Whew, no problem then by TapeCutter · · Score: 1

      You may be right but your pessimisim about AGW does not match the optimisim for world peace as expressed in your sig.

      --
      And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage? - Pink Floyd.
    14. Re:Whew, no problem then by Swizec · · Score: 1

      I for one don't care whether it's natural or not. All I know is we're being rather egotistic in thinking global warming is the end of the world. At worst it will be the end of a civilisation, not even the whole human race. Most probably we'll just lose some cities and adapt our technologies to the new weather.

      About fucking time we started building houses to withstand hurricanes and tornadoes anyway.

      For the love of god people, Homo Sapiens has lived through several ice ages, in fact thrived right through, do you really think a little increase in storm frequency, some flooding and Europe becoming cold is going to be the end of us all?

    15. Re:Whew, no problem then by stonewallred · · Score: 1

      Maybe it is the idea that the global warming effects will not be to a point where it really causes a problem for over a hundred years. And since I will be dead by then, and so will everyone I know, I really don't give a fuck about whoever is here at that time. There is no reason for me to change my lifestyle or activities for crap that is not ever going to effect me.

    16. Re:Whew, no problem then by TapeCutter · · Score: 1

      Excellent stuff. Not telling you how to suck eggs, I'd just like to add that the bit about "CO2 always increased 600 years AFTER the temperature started to increase" has been used ad-nausem by psuedo-skeptics to "prove" that warming causes CO2 and not the other way around. However the rise in CO2 after an ice age is best explained by melting permafrost and adds to whatever is already forcing the temprature up.

      In other words it's an expected positive feedback to a warming globe.

      --
      And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage? - Pink Floyd.
    17. Re:Whew, no problem then by alexibu · · Score: 5, Informative

      The Antarctic as a whole is not cooling, but warming with the rest of the world, some data from some places showed it was cooling and of course this was expounded by denialists as proof that warming wasn't global.

      see : http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2009/01/state-of-antarctica-red-or-blue

      The Antarctic's ice is melting much less than the arctic because the antarctic gets a lot of it's coldness from it's altitude (mountains etc), whereas the arctic is just floating ice, and is also adjacent to more land and less water - water stabilises temperature - so this makes the arctic more sensitive to temperature changes. But the edge bits are melting.

      I think the ice shelves breaking is more likely to be caused by sea level rise though. Where the sea level cracks the ice off from the land. Which shows the non linear nature of ice melting. We don't just get ice melting linearly with temperature increases, we can get whole chunks breaking off and floating away

    18. Re:Whew, no problem then by TapeCutter · · Score: 3, Informative

      You say you did research 3 years ago. Was it published or did the peer-review point out you missed the IPCC temprature reconstructions that have been generally accepted for about a decade now?

      --
      And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage? - Pink Floyd.
    19. Re:Whew, no problem then by khayman80 · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Yes, I've seen those bizarre claims as well. I don't think any physicist seriously doubts the warming properties of CO2. The spectrum of the sun, absorption lines of CO2 and their relevant thermodynamic relationships are simply too well established. They're freshman-level homework problems, not cutting edge research areas.

      I brought that up because I'm concerned about the fact that current warming is highly atypical in that regard. What happens when the natural positive feedback of CO2 adds to what we've already dumped into the atmosphere?

    20. Re:Whew, no problem then by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Can you tell us what actually happens to the co2 that is being released by burning oil if it isn't going to the atmosphere?

    21. Re:Whew, no problem then by commodore64_love · · Score: 1, Interesting

      >>>The "It's natural" red-herring is stage two of the standard psudeo-skeptical denial that comes when they can no longer deny the globe is warming to a particular audience.
      >>>

      But global warming is nothing new. It HAS happened before - once between 3000 and 2000 B.C. and again between 300 and 1400 A.D. and believe me, it did not happen because Ancient Egyptians or Romans were running-around in cars - it was a natural event. If scientists can not explain why those previous warming events happened, how on earth can we trust them? You cannot predict the future if you cannot even predict the past.

      >>>The next stages include, "it's good for us"

      That's because it is. When earth was in its Tropical Age (i.e. no ice on the poles), there was more abundant plant and animal life than any other period. Instead of having frozen wasteland in Northern Canada or Siberia, we could grow enough food for everybody. An Ice Age (ice on poles) is an aberration that only happens during 10% of the earth's cycle, and not the norm. The norm for this planet is a tropical climate.

      --
      "I disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it." - historian Evelyn Beatrice Hall
    22. Re:Whew, no problem then by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      As a fan of sun spots perhaps I can direct you to recent solar events see www.spaceweather.com and the forum of www.solarcycle24.com

    23. Re:Whew, no problem then by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Get back to us when you have looked under the rug and asked one for their name, hypothisis and evidence. Don't forget to check the couch there could be a couple hiding there as well.

      How about the 400 scientists who published a report and submitted it to the us senate?

      Don't mean to troll here but you seem to have an informed opinion and I'd like to hear it. I often thought this report smells of media spin.

    24. Re:Whew, no problem then by TapeCutter · · Score: 2, Interesting

      "I don't think any physicist seriously doubts the warming properties of CO2."

      A rare species indeed, but they do exist.

      "What happens when the natural positive feedback of CO2 adds to what we've already dumped into the atmosphere?"

      I assume due to the rate of the current warming the feedback rate will also be more rapid and that quite a bit of the feedback CO2 will initially be released as methane.

      Just out of curiosity, would you say that the IPCC reports are conservative in their pronouncements due to the inherent difficulty of getting that many experts to agree on the claims they publish in their reports?

      BTW: IANAClimatologist and you are the first I have seen here since I started debating AGW on slashdot almost a decade ago. I hope you can find the time to post more often in these stories.

      --
      And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage? - Pink Floyd.
    25. Re:Whew, no problem then by MrHanky · · Score: 1

      To be fair, it might be good for us. Then again, it's certain that not everyone is one of "us".

    26. Re:Whew, no problem then by Hognoxious · · Score: 1

      Yes, it's natural. The CO2 levels are obviously going to be higher, not because of the evil technology which releases CO2, but because of deforestation

      Is the deforestation natural?

      --
      Confucius say, "Find worm in apple - bad. Find half a worm - worse."
    27. Re:Whew, no problem then by Hognoxious · · Score: 1

      Homo Sapiens has lived through several ice ages, in fact thrived right through

      Thrived? I thought the population dropped to a few thousand at some point.

      --
      Confucius say, "Find worm in apple - bad. Find half a worm - worse."
    28. Re:Whew, no problem then by Hognoxious · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Your analogy fails because we KNOW that there are natural changes in temperatures.

      We also KNOW that abdominal pain can be caused by trapped gas or appendicitis. Sorry, it's you that fails.

      --
      Confucius say, "Find worm in apple - bad. Find half a worm - worse."
    29. Re:Whew, no problem then by TapeCutter · · Score: 1

      You have a good nose, without reading your entire link that particular group has become known as the Inhofe 400 (random link that I breifly scanned, I believe the list is also on WP somewhere). It's not the only machevelian stunt the senator has performed wrt AGW.

      Your nose is probably sensing phrases in the link such as "these scientists hail from prestigious institutions worldwide" rather than "these scientists represent prestigious institutions worldwide" as is the case with the IPCC. They cannot claim that because most of the institutions who house these people do not agree with them and would come down on them with an army of lawyers to protect their reputation. The fact that they tolerate people such as Dr Ball flies in the face of accusations that there is some sort of conspiracy to repress them.

      Not all of the people on the list are hacks, many are simply misrepresented using out of context quotes, like Ray Kurzweil who does not dispute the IPCC consensus but thinks the problem will soon be solved by nanotechnology (exactly how I'm not sure), a few people on the list have also contributed to the IPCC reports. Anyway I will leave it to you to compare what the qualified scientists on the list actually say to Inhofe's cherry-picked quotes.

      --
      And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage? - Pink Floyd.
    30. Re:Whew, no problem then by jellomizer · · Score: 1, Interesting

      I am just going to nit-pick on your post a bit there is one spot I would like to point out.
      "American Geophysical Union are that most (9/10) of the scientists I met agree with the IPCC [www.ipcc.ch] report on abrupt climate change."

      Scientist are human like the rest of the world and tend to have many of the same fault. There is a herding mentality in science, that is prevalent. Disproving or crating an alternative to a common well accepted theory is often very dangerous (reputation wise) for a scientist. As the peer review process of your work may be stepping on some strongly held ideas of your peers, so they will not be favorable to it. So for your proof I would stay away from the age old 9 out to 10 scientist agree mantra, as it is not a formal way of proving anything. It is just playing on the insecurities of other people who figure well they must be smarter then me so I should agree with them.

      This mentality in business has created the economic mess that we are in. Well all these bank brokers and economists say mortgage backed securities are a great deal, I should jump in too. Or even further back in time of the Karian Financial crises of the late 90's where a small few (but well known) investment firms sold a good portion of their stock in Karia (probably just to increase diversification of their investments) causing all the little guys to start selling in a panic thus nearly killing Karia's economy.

      --
      If something is so important that you feel the need to post it on the internet... It probably isn't that important.
    31. Re:Whew, no problem then by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Yeah, just like how that psycho claiming the Earth revolved around the sun was completely wrong because the majority of scientists disagreed with him at the time! Oh wait...

    32. Re:Whew, no problem then by intheshelter · · Score: 1
      "But, CO2 concentrations are at 380 ppm today. That's a level it hasn't hit in the last half million years. If we're seeing natural variability alone, it's quite a coincidence that it occurs right when we started excavating fossil fuels to fuel a billion cars."

      - "It's quite a coincidence does" NOT equate to evidence or scientific data. If the data you quote is correct it does show that these CO2 concentrations have appeared before and they appeared long before man was tooling around in an SUV. . .

      "Plus, the Vostok data is a little difficult to analyze in this manner, but it seems like at Vostok the CO2 always increased 600 years AFTER the temperature started to increase. At least, that's the way it used to work. Right now, the CO2 concentration is at an unprecedented level but the temperature is barely above normal. Again, that suggests that we're not facing natural climate change, we're dealing with anthropogenic abrupt climate change."

      - I don't see how that suggests man made climate change at all? How did you make that leap of logic. All it suggests is the Vostok data does not follow the same pattern we see today, but that is hardly evidence of man made global warming.

      Are all the scientific conclusions in this are based on huge leaps of disconnected logic like I see in this post?

    33. Re:Whew, no problem then by geoffrobinson · · Score: 1

      What if the doctor said it would bankrupt your family for generations to fix the problem? You may want to ask for a MRI.

      --
      Except for ending slavery, the Nazis, communism, & securing American independence, war has never solved anything.
    34. Re:Whew, no problem then by General+Wesc · · Score: 1

      The next stages include, "it's good for us"

      They actually already tried that. Oil companies in the 1980s, I believe. But it's always ready for a revival. I hear it mentioned every time the temperature drops below 50 degrees Fahrenheit.

    35. Re:Whew, no problem then by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      This is anedoctic evidence, but this actually happened to me.
      I was surrounded by around 7-9 MDs and the overwhelming majority decided it was appendicitis. My mother (I was young at that time), knowing my personal history went with the minority option.

      20 years later, I still have my appendicitis. I had a cold, nothing more.

    36. Re:Whew, no problem then by intheshelter · · Score: 3, Insightful
      "denialists"

      - Oh jeez, if you want to be taken seriously then stop using cheeseball terms that I'd expect from a Scientologist. Giving people who disagree with you some derogatory label lowers your credibility and reeks of cult behavior.

      "I think the ice shelves breaking is more likely to be caused by sea level rise though."

      - Data please? I'm sorry to be such a stickler on this, but since the pro-AGW crowd always expounds on the merits of science and data then I would expect they would provide some when a claim like this is made.

    37. Re:Whew, no problem then by TapeCutter · · Score: 1

      Our ancestors did survive the ice age because the change was slow enough for them to simply walk away from it but when the Himalayan glaciers disappear where do you think the billion plus people who depend on them will walk to? - They can't walk to Bangladesh as it will have become part of the sea bed.

      "At worst it will be the end of a civilisation, not even the whole human race."

      Yes there were a few hundred natives left many years after they cut all the trees down on Easter Island but I already have one grandchild and would prefer not to condem her to nomadic goat hearding in her old age.

      --
      And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage? - Pink Floyd.
    38. Re:Whew, no problem then by Stormcrow309 · · Score: 2

      Ok, I have to adapt an internet mime for this: Peer reviewed or it didn't happen. Even then it would have to pass the critical analysis test. You present no metrics, sample pool data, or descriptive statistics and yet expect your personnal experience to be taken at face value. You make to many assumptions. Bad scientist. No grant money for you.

      It is also hard to take a 'climate scientist' seriously when you qoute yourself as studing computational and theoretical physics, which is outside climatology. A good scientist knows when not to present themselves as an expert in a field they are not.

      --

      In God we trust, all others require data.

    39. Re:Whew, no problem then by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You were doing SOOOOO WELL, but you blew it.
      The fact is, automobiles account for (at most) 2 percent of CO2 emissions.

      2004 total CO2 emissions (planetwide) were 27,251,186,000 metric tons. The amount from automobiles? About 500,000,000 metric tons.

      So, a completely rational discussion from a "scientist" focuses on the WRONG SOURCE OF THE PROBLEM. The fact is that all the OTHER forms of power generation are the real problem here.

      Telling us that everyone on the planet should ride a bicycle instead of driving their car is ridiculous. We need to convert our major power generation systems to something more reasonable like wind, solar, tidal, geothermal, and (yes) NUCLEAR.

      Does nuclear power produce a bunch of crap we don't want? YES. Does it dump CO2 into the atmosphere? Not like the current systems!!!

      Do we know how to do nuclear power better today than ever before? YES.

      We need to switch to GOOD methods NOW and then put money into BETTER methods.

      But this crap about cars is such a red herring I think everyone who even MENTIONS IT is a total moron.

    40. Re:Whew, no problem then by microbox · · Score: 1
      omfg! That's the most concise explanation I've ever seen.
      • It's not happening
      • Okay, it is happening, but it's natural
      • Okay, we might have done it, but it's good for us
      • Okay, it's no good, but God will save us
      • Okay, God ain't going to save us, it must be the end times - let's kill other for the remaining resources
      --

      Like all pain, suffering is a signal that something isn't right
    41. Re:Whew, no problem then by mdwh2 · · Score: 1

      So for your proof I would stay away from the age old 9 out to 10 scientist agree mantra, as it is not a formal way of proving anything.

      You mean the bit where he said: "But you've made an even more fundamental mistake. Science isn't democratic-- it's about evidence", and then presented a load of evidence?

      So, let's see your evidence.

    42. Re:Whew, no problem then by m4cph1sto · · Score: 4, Insightful

      I'm a scientist too, and I judge theories based on merit, not popular opinion.

      As a rule, scientific theories are not accepted by the scientific community until they have done two things: (1) explained known observations in a more simple or fundamental way than alternative theories, and (2) made a prediction about something that is currently unknown and that other theories don't predict, which is then confirmed by observation.

      Global Warming theory has met neither of those requirements. The main statement of Global Warming is something like this: "small changes in the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere cause large changes in global temperature". Despite this theory, there is absolutely no evidence that a change in CO2 has ever caused the temperature to change, over the entire billions-years history of the planet. So GW theory doesn't explain past observations.

      It doesn't explain current observations either: CO2 concentration has steadily increased over the past 100 years, while temperatures have gone up, then down, then up again, then down again (as they are currently). There is no dramatic warming trend as predicted by GW theory.

      Finally, GW has not made any unique predictions that have later been confirmed as true. It predicted more and bigger hurricanes; that hasn't happened. It predicted significant temperature increases; that hasn't happened. In fact, the theory seems totally based on computer models that have failed to make a single correct prediction about the climate ever since I first started following the issue, in 1998.

      To summarize, GW theory does not meet the standards of scientific acceptance, not by a long shot.

    43. Re:Whew, no problem then by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      In your example, there are 2 courses of action, "wait and see" and "get operation". With regards to climate change, there are to say the least, more than two.

      Here's my issue with most of the people here. You figure there are probably some changes coming. You aren't sure how much will happen in your own lifetime, yet you're sure it's going to be both noticeable and bad. You figure humans have had a lot to do with it, and that somehow that means we can "change it back". Or something.

      The part that gets us into trouble is when someone links "yes we did it" to "here's the correct way to change it back". You're not going to get people to stop driving, using electricity, farting, or whatever else is causing all the CO2. And most of the proposals for how to "fix" the ecosystem seem to be about giving lots of money to people who aren't going to do anything anyway, except waste your money.

    44. Re:Whew, no problem then by Peter+La+Casse · · Score: 1

      The fact that a lot of people are happy to selectively discount a clear majority of scientific opinion worldwide because it doesn't fit in with their world view or political standpoint never ceases to amaze me.

      It's hard for me to get upset about people thinking critically or skeptically. It happens so rarely that it should be cherished and encouraged, even when they'd be better off just believing what I tell them.

      Nevertheless, those who disagree with The Narrative are evil or stupid and require reeducation. It's because we're concerned for them, not because we want power. Power is a burden really, and it is only reluctantly that we shoulder it to save the planet.

    45. Re:Whew, no problem then by Red+Flayer · · Score: 3, Insightful

      I'm a scientist too, and I judge theories based on merit, not popular opinion.

      This is contradicted by:

      It doesn't explain current observations either: CO2 concentration has steadily increased over the past 100 years, while temperatures have gone up, then down, then up again, then down again (as they are currently). There is no dramatic warming trend as predicted by GW theory.

      Look at the data again. There is most assuredly a dramatic warming trend, despite the slight decrease in global mean temperature over the past few years. Run a regression on the data, it's quite clear.

      Furthermore, once periodic solar activity is factored in as an ameliorating effect due to lower output over the past few years, it becomes quite clear that the warming trend continues.

      If you're such a logic scientist, how could you have missed the bare facts of the data of the past 100 years? And how could you have dismissed the impact of solar activity on temperature?

      Seems to me like you don't WANT to believe in GCC, and so you don't bother reading all the evidence and theory.

      --
      "Trolls they were, but filled with the evil will of their master: a fell race..." -- J.R.R. Tolkien on Olog-hai
    46. Re:Whew, no problem then by bugeaterr · · Score: 1

      if 9 out of 10 doctors said your child had appendicitis, and only 1 said it was trapped gas, would you go home and 'wait and see'?

      That analogy compares the economic impact of eliminating greenhouse gases to a common, low-risk appendectomy.
      A better analogy would be:
      9 out of 10 doctors say they need to amputate your kids' legs.
      You'd make DAMN sure the tenth doctor was wrong (open debate, anyone?) before you'd go ahead with that procedure.

      I'm sure plenty will say the amputation analogy goes too far in the other direction. But consider that what might be a moderate economic impact (appendectomy) in the western world can create severe ripples in the third world. The poorest get hurt the most.

    47. Re:Whew, no problem then by TapeCutter · · Score: 4, Informative

      Total ignorance is rare but you seem to have pulled it off with that 'insightfull' post.

      --
      And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage? - Pink Floyd.
    48. Re:Whew, no problem then by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Wait a second ... you're not a politician? You're entire paycheck depends on government money. All of it. How the fuck are you not a motivated party?

    49. Re:Whew, no problem then by luzr · · Score: 1
      Our ancestors did survive the ice age because the change was slow enough for them to simply walk away from it but when the Himalayan glaciers disappear where do you think the billion plus people who depend on them will walk to? - They can't walk to Bangladesh as it will have become part of the sea bed.

      Siberia? That is quite unpopulated area, because generally, temperatures are too harsh today.

    50. Re:Whew, no problem then by Facetious · · Score: 1

      Perhaps it is less about the quantity of scientists than the quality. I tend to like what Freeman Dyson has to say on the subject.

      --
      Let us not become the evil that we deplore.
    51. Re:Whew, no problem then by commodore64_love · · Score: 1

      Amazing.

      You posted two links that have absolutely NOTHING to do with the Egyptian era or late-Roman/early Middle Ages warming periods. Arrogance and stupidity in the same package! And lack of reading comprehension. How efficient of you.

      --
      "I disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it." - historian Evelyn Beatrice Hall
    52. Re:Whew, no problem then by FatRichie · · Score: 1

      Because there are tools in place (xrays, MRI's, etc) and a long history of prior diagnoses in place, so no, I would not "wait and see" if there was a 9 out of 10 doctor consensus on an apendicitis diagnosis.

      However, if I suddenly become sick due to some very obscure illness that 9 out of 10 doctors can't even agree on what the illness is, then a "wait and see" approach is certainly merited.

      The situation we find ourselves in is that 9 out of 10 (hopefully 10 out of 10, but nonetheless, the overwhelming majority) scientists agree that CO2 levels are going up. And 9 out of 10 (or 10 out of 10) scientists agree that global temperatures are going up. But there is no overwhelming consensus as to what EXACLTY is causing these symptoms (APENDICITIS!) nor what EXACTLY the resolution should be (remove the appendix).

    53. Re:Whew, no problem then by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Maybe it is the idea that the global warming effects will not be to a point where it really causes a problem for over a hundred years. And since I will be dead by then, and so will everyone I know, I really don't give a fuck about whoever is here at that time. There is no reason for me to change my lifestyle or activities for crap that is not ever going to effect me.

      Sounds like someone who will never procreate.

    54. Re:Whew, no problem then by phantomfive · · Score: 1

      I am a realist. World peace is a significantly easier goal in my opinion.

      --
      Qxe4
    55. Re:Whew, no problem then by lowflying · · Score: 1

      Global Warming theory has met neither of those requirements. The main statement of Global Warming is something like this: "small changes in the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere cause large changes in global temperature".

      My background is more in rhetoric than science, and that there is what we rhetoricians like to call a straw man. You got the small and large all swapped around, then beat up on an argument that wasn't being made. The argument I have heard made, that concerns me, is that large changes in CO2 concentration result in small temperature changes that can have dramatic impacts.

      To summarize,

    56. Re:Whew, no problem then by Jaeph · · Score: 1

      "My experiences at the 2008 Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union are that most (9/10) of the scientists I met agree with the IPCC report on abrupt climate change."

      Which just means that the majority of people who showed up (or were invited) are the type of people who hold this view. It doesn't mean the meeting is representative of anything.

      Ignoring that - as you said, science is about evidence - all you've done in your discussion is correlated data that hints at possible man-made involvement. Certainly enough to form a hypothesis.

      What I find interesting is that every time I try to follow-up on the testing for this, I'm met with "...this computer model clearly shows..." When I try to investigate the model, I find out it is proprietary, as is the precise data that was used. In other words, it is impossible to reproduce the claims in another laboratory, because the method is hidden.

      At that point my adult-skeptic sense kicks in. I've seen luddites before, or just people who have some desperate need to join a cause that shows how bad we all are. I have no idea why this phenomenon exists, but I've seen it all my life. The entire "climate change" movement smells of this. Strong assurances that *something* is wrong, clear direction on massive sacrifices that we need to make, and very vague predictions as to what will happen if we don't make'em.

      Count me as one of those skeptics who refuses to do anything beyond funding some research. Quite frankly I think much of the research is a waste, but if it keeps the "woe-is-us" kiddies busy, perhaps there is some value there.

      -Jeff

      --
      Please learn the difference between a dissenting opinion and a troll before you moderate.
    57. Re:Whew, no problem then by smoker2 · · Score: 1

      You are not a climate scientist ?

      You seem to have an awful lot to say on the issue, but none of it is your thoughts, just regurgitated media pap.

      You are not the final authority on AGW, and you don't seem to be able to form an independent opinion, preferring instead to berate others for using their brains and not following the political bandwagon that is AGW.

      Have you read this ?. In fact have the whole lot.
      Yet another piece of evidence that it is going to happen despite all your whining. There is no debate, there is global warming, it is part of the natural cycle called climate change. Winning an argument at all costs doesn't make you right, it makes you an asshole. So what if we accelerated the change. It is too late to go backwards, and even if it weren't, you may as well try stopping plate tectonics.

      Goodbye.

    58. Re:Whew, no problem then by NeutronCowboy · · Score: 1

      That's because it is. When earth was in its Tropical Age (i.e. no ice on the poles), there was more abundant plant and animal life than any other period. Instead of having frozen wasteland in Northern Canada or Siberia, we could grow enough food for everybody.

      Do you see farms in Siberia and Canada? No? That's because all the farms are currently where it is convenient to have farms: the Midwest, the temperate regions of the world with decent rainfaill (ignore for a second the insanity that is California's Central Valley). Since those regions will become far less hospitable to farming, they will have to move. Transitioning those farms is not going to happen overnight, and it will disrupt the food supply while it happens.

      So your argument of "it's actually good" will hopefully apply to our grandchildren. We and our children will, in the meantime, have to deal with mass migrations, food disruptions and general chaos. All thanks to assholes like who can't think ahead and can't accept that certain luxuries are unsustainable.

      The rest of your argument has already been taken apart by a single picture. No need to go there.

      --
      Those who can, do. Those who can't, sue.
    59. Re:Whew, no problem then by NeutronCowboy · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Since so many people here think that they're Nobel Prize worthy, I'm sure it won't be hard for those who want to brush me off for not linking to a source to find exactly what I'm talking about.

      No. I brush you off because I've got links to Nobel Prize winners and the results of studies of other world-renowned scientists available. You, on the other hand, are doing some handwaving about the little ice age, which is only tangentially related to the current issue of Global Warming. You seem to take yourself far more seriously than you even accuse the rest of Slashdot to be.

      --
      Those who can, do. Those who can't, sue.
    60. Re:Whew, no problem then by operagost · · Score: 1

      The Antarctic as a whole is not cooling, but warming with the rest of the world

      The global mean hasn't risen since 1998. That is a fact. I am making no argument, just a statement.

      --

      Gamingmuseum.com: Give your 3D accelerator a rest.
    61. Re:Whew, no problem then by operagost · · Score: 1

      Al Gore's Nobel Peace prize should be proudly displayed next to Yasser Arafat's.

      --

      Gamingmuseum.com: Give your 3D accelerator a rest.
    62. Re:Whew, no problem then by QuantumPion · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Someone once brought this home to me quite nicely - he said if 9 out of 10 doctors said your child had appendicitis, and only 1 said it was trapped gas, would you go home and 'wait and see'?
      Even if you were nervous about the risks of an operation, the risks of ignoring it are much worse - if it turns out to be appendicitis.

      A more accurate analogy would be:

      a) quit your job to live in a clinic indefinitely with a poor quality of life, spending $100,000 on experimental treatments before it bursts in the hope of delaying the problem that will inevitably come anyway, or
      b) keep your job and save up money, wait until the appendix bursts, and spend $10,000 to have the operation to fix the problem, and get on with your life.

      I'm on the fence as to whether AGW is real or not. Even if it is, the climate scientists say it is inevitable over the next century. So why spend trillions of dollars and criple the world's economy when the problem can't be reversed anyway. Better to strive for thriving economies around the world that have that have enough prosperity and wealth to deal with the consequences, and in 100 years or so internal combustion engines and coal power will be obsolete anyway.

    63. Re:Whew, no problem then by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Plus, the Vostok data is a little difficult to analyze in this manner, but it seems like at Vostok the CO2 always increased 600 years AFTER the temperature started to increase. At least, that's the way it used to work. Right now, the CO2 concentration is at an unprecedented level but the temperature is barely above normal. Again, that suggests that we're not facing natural climate change, we're dealing with anthropogenic abrupt climate change.

      You call what you said there science? You're claiming that CO2 levels changing before a raise in temperature implies a climate change, when all it implies, in fact, is that there is an anthropogenic effect on CO2 levels. I realise that for you, there is no difference. If you want to be a scientist, there really, really should be. Read what you said there, very carefully. I'd be embarrassed. You might consider posting as AC.

    64. Re:Whew, no problem then by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The problem with this analogy is that it ignores the fact that the generic term "doctor" isn't nearly descriptive as it needs to be.

      Try the following on for size: Suppose 9 out of the 10 doctors you happen to ask for an opinion happen to agree that your child has appendicitis. But 7 of those "doctors" are not MEDICAL doctors, but rather have doctorates in other non-medical fields like anthropology or mathematics. Of the 2 actual medical doctors who think your child has appendicitis, one is fresh out of medical school and wants to operate immediately, despite never having done such surgery. The other - who is a seasoned veteran - thinks it's appendicitis for sure, but likely a minor case which will self-heal or which requires further observation. Of course you also have the other "doctor" who think it isn't appendicitis AT ALL, and his credentials appear to be medically impressive as well.

      My analogy isn't perfect either. But consider at least that the term "scientist" is not fungible ... the opinions of anthropogists, clinical psychologists, sociaologists and the like really don't count much when applying their opinion to something outside of there specialty.

      What holds true is that there are a LOT of "scientists" of that type counted in the GW/Gotta-do-something-drastic-now group, and not so many in the "anti GW" crowd.

      Even so, counting up "number of scientists who think X" is a dodge meant to distort the actual scientific case one way or the other.

    65. Re:Whew, no problem then by khayman80 · · Score: 1

      Just out of curiosity, would you say that the IPCC reports are conservative in their pronouncements due to the inherent difficulty of getting that many experts to agree on the claims they publish in their reports?

      Absolutely. Their error bars are quite large, indicating the uncertainty of the data. All their language is defined at the beginning of the report: words such as "likely" and "very likely" are given precise meanings based on normal distributions. They've avoided making any strong statements about climate change affecting hurricanes (for good reason, IMHO.)

    66. Re:Whew, no problem then by kenboldt · · Score: 1

      You do realize that the graph you posted a link to shows data in a time frame that when viewed upon in a scale which displays the complete history of the earth falls into the realm of noise. 2000 years is less than the error associated with estimating the age of the earth. To look at such a short data set and assume that what occurred in that time frame can be compared to the entire data set is faulty science. If you looked at Wayne Gretzky's career, and picked out two games where he didn't score a point, you wouldn't take that to mean that it was a catastrophic slump that must have led to the complete demise of his scoring ability. And you wouldn't assume that because a rookie baseball player hit a single homerun that he is going to be the most prolific hitter in the history of baseball.

    67. Re:Whew, no problem then by ravenshrike · · Score: 1

      Volcanoes are funny things doncha know. They create heat. Oddly enough, there's a volcano right bloody near the area in question.

    68. Re:Whew, no problem then by khayman80 · · Score: 1

      It is also hard to take a 'climate scientist' seriously when you qoute yourself as studing computational and theoretical physics, which is outside climatology. A good scientist knows when not to present themselves as an expert in a field they are not.

      Computational physics and climatology are essentially synonymous. Instruments record data, which are then integrated into computational models. What did you think climatologists do?

    69. Re:Whew, no problem then by deets101 · · Score: 1

      This has been happening for the last 10,000 years when the ice started receding from area that is now the mid United States, correct?

      --

      --
      My parents went to Slashdot and all I got was this lousy sig.
    70. Re:Whew, no problem then by Reziac · · Score: 1

      What I want to hear is how human-caused global warming is affecting other planets in the solar system, which I understand are ALSO undergoing their own global warming cycles.

      Unless they're inhabited by newly-industrial-age aliens and we've failed to notice??

      --
      ~REZ~ #43301. Who'd fake being me anyway?
    71. Re:Whew, no problem then by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      No, what's amazing is that you totally missed his point.

      And lack of reading comprehension.

      Given those two links utterly invalidated your points in a previous post, but you were too stupid to notice, I don't think you're in any position to accuse anyone of a lack of reading comprehension.

      Please, unless you're a climatologist, don't speak on the subject of climate change. You have no idea what you're talking about.

    72. Re:Whew, no problem then by Reziac · · Score: 1

      So, you're equating Al Gore with research scientists? As I recall, his degree is in journalism...

      --
      ~REZ~ #43301. Who'd fake being me anyway?
    73. Re:Whew, no problem then by khayman80 · · Score: 1

      Global Warming theory has met neither of those requirements. The main statement of Global Warming is something like this: "small changes in the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere cause large changes in global temperature". Despite this theory, there is absolutely no evidence that a change in CO2 has ever caused the temperature to change, over the entire billions-years history of the planet. So GW theory doesn't explain past observations.

      Abrupt climate change is a direct result of an unprecedented excavation of fossil fuels, and the combustion of said fuels which releases CO2 into the atmosphere that's been trapped for millions of years. It's not supposed to explain past observations.

      It doesn't explain current observations either: CO2 concentration has steadily increased over the past 100 years, while temperatures have gone up, then down, then up again, then down again (as they are currently). There is no dramatic warming trend as predicted by GW theory.

      I've never met a scientist who made a claim like the one you're attributing to me. Most scientists recognize that long term trends are only discernable in the data after accounting for annual variations, multi-year variations, etc. Once those fluctuations are removed by a 5 year averaging procedure, a disturbing upward trend is apparent.

      Finally, GW has not made any unique predictions that have later been confirmed as true. It predicted more and bigger hurricanes; that hasn't happened. It predicted significant temperature increases; that hasn't happened. In fact, the theory seems totally based on computer models that have failed to make a single correct prediction about the climate ever since I first started following the issue, in 1998.

      First, the temperature is increasing. Second, the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report made a very limited claim regarding hurricanes: "It is more likely than not (>50%) that there has been some human contribution to the increases in hurricane intensity."

      Third, Meehl 2004 showed convincing proof that natural forcing can't account for recent global temperature trends, but including anthropogenic forcing provides a good match for the data.

    74. Re:Whew, no problem then by m4cph1sto · · Score: 1

      Look at the data again. There is most assuredly a dramatic warming trend, despite the slight decrease in global mean temperature over the past few years. Run a regression on the data, it's quite clear.

      You mean this data?

      http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/Fig.D.lrg.gif

      Or this one?

      http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/Fig.C.lrg.gif

      In my opinion, any evidence based on "global temperature" that includes data from more than just recent years should be viewed with scepticism, because our worldwide measurement and calculation techniques have changed dramatically, which likely skews the results in one direction or another. NASA presents data on mean global temperature extending from today back to 1880 as a single line graph with no error bars, which is ridiculous.

      Instead, look at the temperature trends I linked to above, based only on direct measurements made in the United States since 1880, or "mean global temperature" using modern measurement techniques (since 1996). These datasets are, IMO, the only ones we can believe with any confidence. Is there a dramatic warming trend? The answer is as likely no as yes, or a resounding "we don't know".

      Here's another interesting way to look at the data:

      http://www.uoguelph.ca/~rmckitri/research/nvst.html

      Mean global temperature versus number of measuring stations. In the 1990s the dramatic temperature increase coincides with the loss of thousands of Russian measuring stations when the Soviet Union collapsed. My point is that arriving at a "mean global temperature" is a very difficult calculation to make.

    75. Re:Whew, no problem then by khayman80 · · Score: 1

      "It's quite a coincidence does" NOT equate to evidence or scientific data. If the data you quote is correct it does show that these CO2 concentrations have appeared before and they appeared long before man was tooling around in an SUV. . .

      I'm curious- how did you draw that conclusion from the Vostok data? All the CO2 data I've seen (including that graph) show that CO2 has only risen above its historical 300ppm maximum in the 1900s. If you mean that SUVs weren't around in the early 1900s, well, you're kind of right. But industrialization was well underway, and cars did exist back then...

      I don't see how that suggests man made climate change at all? How did you make that leap of logic. All it suggests is the Vostok data does not follow the same pattern we see today, but that is hardly evidence of man made global warming.

      Like I said, it could be a complete coincidence that the first time CO2 concentration rose above 300ppm in 500,000 years was when we started pumping gigatons of CO2 into the atmosphere.

      Are all the scientific conclusions in this are based on huge leaps of disconnected logic like I see in this post?

      I know this will be a bit of a shock, but some subjects are too complicated to be adequately taught in the space of a single slashdot post. I highly recommend checking out the IPCC reports if you're seriously interested in a rigorous review of climate change science.

    76. Re:Whew, no problem then by khayman80 · · Score: 1

      What I find interesting is that every time I try to follow-up on the testing for this, I'm met with "...this computer model clearly shows..." When I try to investigate the model, I find out it is proprietary, as is the precise data that was used. In other words, it is impossible to reproduce the claims in another laboratory, because the method is hidden.

      This closed-source attitude is a big problem, but it's a problem for science in general. For instance, have you ever tried to download the raw data from Cassini or the Mars rovers or particle accelerators? It's usually impossible, because scientists don't like to share their data until they've wrung all possible discoveries out of it first. I'm hoping that journals like PLOS Biology will help to shift this trend in a more open-source direction.

      At that point my adult-skeptic sense kicks in. I've seen luddites before, or just people who have some desperate need to join a cause that shows how bad we all are. I have no idea why this phenomenon exists, but I've seen it all my life. The entire "climate change" movement smells of this. Strong assurances that *something* is wrong, clear direction on massive sacrifices that we need to make, and very vague predictions as to what will happen if we don't make'em.

      Yeah, the environmental movement annoys me too. If I have to see Al Gore's smug face accepting another nobel prize for essentially parroting what scientists tell him, I'm going to put my head through a wall. But very, very few of the climate scientists I met are like that. Most of them are simply trying to understand the climate with as much rigor as possible...

    77. Re:Whew, no problem then by Stormcrow309 · · Score: 1

      By a literature review, it seems mostly statistics and modeling, forming a physical science discipline. This would mean that you are casting a very wide net in your definition, making someone studying computational physics an economist, game theorist (which may or may not be an economist), or even a positivist sociologist. Just the measurement and analysis of data does not make one a climatologist. The specialization education makes someone a climatologist, where they study in depth the literature and body of knowledge to understand the field.

      For example, Dr. Kielpinski, a significant quantum physicist, would likely have a difficulty understanding game theory, even though the math between the two are similar. It is the detail of the body of knowledge, with field-based assumptions, that brings true understanding of a subject. It is that what makes a scholar of a subject.

      --

      In God we trust, all others require data.

    78. Re:Whew, no problem then by khayman80 · · Score: 1

      The fact is, automobiles account for (at most) 2 percent of CO2 emissions.

      Huh? All the data I've seen places the "transportation sector" near the top of the list. Here's a quote: "The transportation sector is the second largest source of CO2 emissions in the U.S. Almost all of the energy consumed in the transportation sector is petroleum based, including gasoline, diesel and jet fuel. Automobiles and light-duty trucks account for almost two-thirds of emissions from the transportation sector and emissions have steadily grown since 1990."

      That said, I do agree that nuclear power is our best course of action.

    79. Re:Whew, no problem then by hey! · · Score: 4, Insightful

      I'm not a scientist myself, but my wife is an Earth scientist. We've been following the climate change story now for twenty five years or more in Eos and other journals.

      As an interested outsider, I think one of the reasons that scientists took so long to get off the dime when it came to sounding the alarm was that most of them were waiting for the other shoe to drop. There has not been another scientific story like climate change in generations. Not since evolution.

      One of the things my wife often said over the years was, "the evidence is too good." And I'm sure she's not the only one. It goes against scientific training to get behind a theory until it's been given a serious beating, and nobody has been able to lay a glove on this one.

      What people who don't have a real live Earth scientist available for observation need to understand is that even proponents of the theory would love to see the skeptical position put up a decent fight. Data this unambiguous doesn't seem scientific. It's spooky. They'd rather see the theory knocked down onto the mat, then get up to fight another round and win by decision.

      People waited around for the skeptics to give this theory a solid hit, and in over twenty five years the skeptics have failed, over and over and over. First they argued that climate wasn't changing, and although they did manage to discredit some data sets, that position failed. Next they tried to explain the data in terms of non-anthropogenic causes; at best they've forced some changes in models and in the predicted ranges of change. So far as I know, no attempt to explain the changes in climate data over the last fifty years in terms of natural cycles or statistical artifacts has held up to scrutiny.

      I understand that science is not a democracy; but it's not driven by individual data sets either. You have to look at how robust an hypothesis is, how it stands up under stress. Thus far, nobody has been able to seriously set the theory back. Who wouldn't want to do this, if they could? Discrediting anthropogenic climate change would be Nobel caliber work. It would be an immense service to humanity, comparable in importance if not greater than the discovery of the vaccine for polio, or penicillin was in medicine.

      --
      Post may contain irony: discontinue use if experiencing mood swings, nausea or elevated blood pressure.
    80. Re:Whew, no problem then by speedtux · · Score: 1

      Because it's been proven. Beyond all shadow of a doubt.

      It doesn't have to be "proven beyond all shadow of a doubt". In Russian roulette, there is no proof whatsoever that the chamber contains a bullet, and your chances of dying are only 1 in six, yet playing Russian roulette is irrational and dangerous. If man-made global warming has even a slight chance of occurring, the rational thing to do is to take action now. And based on the results and opinions of the great majority of experts, there is more than just a slight chance.

      It's particularly bizarre that many opponents to taking action against global warming are found in the Republican party, a party that otherwise is highly risk-averse and wants to ban video games, drugs, and many other things on the off chance that they might be dangerous to some people.

    81. Re:Whew, no problem then by khayman80 · · Score: 1

      By a literature review, it seems mostly statistics and modeling, forming a physical science discipline. This would mean that you are casting a very wide net in your definition, making someone studying computational physics an economist, game theorist (which may or may not be an economist), or even a positivist sociologist. Just the measurement and analysis of data does not make one a climatologist. The specialization education makes someone a climatologist, where they study in depth the literature and body of knowledge to understand the field.

      Perhaps I should have been more precise. All climatologists are computational physicists, but not the reverse. You're right to say that someone who designs quantum computers isn't a climatologist.

      Look, the fact is I don't want my comments here (or on dumbscientist) to impact my job search. So I'm not going to tell you my name or affiliation. Why should that even matter? Examine the evidence I presented, and come to your own conclusions. I could be a hobo under a bridge, and it wouldn't change the reconstruction of those proxy climate records. I see non-scientists obsessed about degrees and "experts" all the time, but most scientists couldn't care less. We're just interested in the evidence...

    82. Re:Whew, no problem then by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Right now, the CO2 concentration is at an unprecedented level but the temperature is barely above normal.

      Right, the temperature is barely above normal, so when does the warming part in global warming happen?

    83. Re:Whew, no problem then by NeutronCowboy · · Score: 1

      Clarification, since this is the second question: Totenglocke seemed to think that winning a Nobel Prize would add significant credibility to a statement. Well, there's at least one Nobel Prize winner who considers Global Warming a reality. Whether he deserved it is an entirely different discussion.

      But I probably should not have said "other world-renowned scientists." My bad.

      --
      Those who can, do. Those who can't, sue.
    84. Re:Whew, no problem then by ieatcookies · · Score: 1

      Those frozen wastelands in Siberia hold down enormous pockets of methane that, when released, _could_ have serious impacts on the global system.

    85. Re:Whew, no problem then by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Dude - your logic doesn't make any sense.

      If a rise in CO2 follows temperature increase, then CO2 levels are an effect not a cause. (E.g., Sex comes before the baby, not after)

      Additionally, if CO2 levels are so high today, but temperatures have barely increased, you have further weakened your position that CO2 is responsible for temperature changes.

    86. Re:Whew, no problem then by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I don't deny "global warming", I think that is rather arrogant to think that "man" can stop an interglacial period from happening, either on time, or ahead of time. Last Ice Age ended 20,000+ years ago, there is about 100,000 yrs between ice ages. Gee, what happens in between?

      Come on, simple question,eh? Or revise the numbers please.

    87. Re:Whew, no problem then by An+Onerous+Coward · · Score: 1

      I think there is a use for the term "denialist", but that it doesn't cover all climate change skeptics. Just the dishonest ones, who use arguments far beneath what ought to be their actual level of scientific understanding. For example, "global warming stopped in 1998" is a pretty blatant one, if offered by someone who should know better than to try and lie with statistics.

      --

      You want the truthiness? You can't handle the truthiness!

    88. Re:Whew, no problem then by khayman80 · · Score: 1

      If a rise in CO2 follows temperature increase, then CO2 levels are an effect not a cause.

      More accurately, it's a positive feedback effect. External factors increased the temperature, which took 600-1000 years to release CO2 from its reservoirs, which then reinforced the warming trend for the next ~4000 years. If you seriously think that CO2 can't warm the planet, I suggest studying the solar spectrum, absorption lines of CO2, and blackbody thermodynamics. If you can somehow show that CO2 isn't a greenhouse gas, you'll receive a Nobel prize and be able to rewrite basic physics textbooks...

      Additionally, if CO2 levels are so high today, but temperatures have barely increased, you have further weakened your position that CO2 is responsible for temperature changes.

      My point is that the natural pattern as observed in the ice core proxy data is for the temperature to increase due to Milankovitch cycles. THEN CO2 increases, probably as a result of permafrost melt, etc. That's not what's happening now, though. CO2 has increased before temperatures for the first time in the last half million years.

    89. Re:Whew, no problem then by UnknownSoldier · · Score: 1

      > Do you see farms in Siberia and Canada? No?

      Mr. Ignorance, meet Mr. Blind.

      They grow wheat and other grains in Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Here let me wikipedia it for you: breadbasket.

    90. Re:Whew, no problem then by Stormcrow309 · · Score: 1

      First day in epistemology: Who is the source? What are the biases inherit to such sources? Does the author recognize those biases? What epistemological, axiological, ontological, and methodological approaches and beliefs create the theoretical lens that the author uses? These questions show that who the author is and what the author's theoretical lens does matter. I highly suggest you read the The Craft of Research by Booth, Colomb, and Williams.

      I already see a set theory flaw within your statement, where you assume that all climatologists are computational physicists. Thurston is a Bioinformatics Specialist, associated with Climate Dynamics group at Oxford. Kininmonth is a meteorologist. Ruddiman is a marine geologist. If I saw an academic paper with such an inclusive statement from a student of mine, then they would told to rewrite.

      --

      In God we trust, all others require data.

    91. Re:Whew, no problem then by Maint_Pgmr_3 · · Score: 1

      You talk about the evidence that "the maximum CO2 concentration never went above 300 ppm." that was went there was an ice sheet, so we have to believe that there was ALWAYS and ice sheet over the entire Earth, even when the Earth was on giant continent, Pangaea [sic] I believe, that located around the equator. These Ice Sheets also "flowed" south from the Poles. That would seem to indicate that it was colder up north then toward the equator, other wise the ice sheets should have build evenly. "Science isn't democratic", it is eco-nomic.

    92. Re:Whew, no problem then by phantomfive · · Score: 1

      I should clarify, I see no reason why we won't eventually get our carbon emissions under control. It seems perfectly reasonable that eventually we will have the technology to do that. I see every reason to be optimistic about climate change in that sense.

      However, scientists have been saying if we don't get our emissions under control within the next ten years, we will have 'irreversible' damage. If that is true, then there is no way we will get it under control. Even if somehow today, at this moment, we got through all the permits and environmental studies needed to build enough nuclear plants for the US, we still wouldn't be able to build them all in that time frame, we just don't have the production capacity to get it done. And that doesn't take into consideration cars, which would all need to become electric. How long would it take to build that many batteries? This is what I mean when I say global warming is inevitable, that it will take a while to reduce our carbon dioxide production.

      Peace on the other hand, is logistically simple. All people have to do is agree to stop fighting. It will take LESS work than it would to continue fighting.

      --
      Qxe4
    93. Re:Whew, no problem then by An+Onerous+Coward · · Score: 1

      Bah. I'm feeling lazy. link link link

      Some of the planets are warming. Some aren't. Some, we aren't sure. Pluto is easily explained by seasonal changes. None of it has anything to do with what's going on on the Earth.

      Next question?

      --

      You want the truthiness? You can't handle the truthiness!

    94. Re:Whew, no problem then by khayman80 · · Score: 1

      I already see a set theory flaw within your statement, where you assume that all climatologists are computational physicists. Thurston is a Bioinformatics Specialist, associated with Climate Dynamics group at Oxford. Kininmonth is a meteorologist. Ruddiman is a marine geologist. If I saw an academic paper with such an inclusive statement from a student of mine, then they would told to rewrite.

      Good grief. You've read WAY too far into a single sentence on my anonymous, personal blog. I am a computational physicist, and I specifically study time-variable gravity. In the course of my research, I've independently confirmed measurements of glaciers melting via their secular trend on gravity above the Alaskan and Greenland glaciers.

      But, like I told the AC before, this is largely irrelevant. Instead of quibbling over my qualifications (or lack thereof), it would be far more productive to look at the evidence I provided and comment on it. My degrees, biases, and status as "expert" aren't the issue here. If you'll notice, I only mentioned that I was a climate scientist to refute the AC's (decidedly unscientific) sociological claim that all scientists supporting abrupt climate change are politically motivated hacks.

      Then, in the very next sentence, I carefully explained that my status as a scientist isn't important. The evidence is what's important. Read the IPCC reports, examine the peer-reviewed journal articles I've linked.

    95. Re:Whew, no problem then by alexibu · · Score: 1

      Denialists - I didn't say who was a denialist besides those who chose to pick isolated data sets that agree with their world view to prove their point.

      Genuine skeptics would have been interested in the Antarctic cooling data too

      But point taken It is probably not nice to feel you are being called silly names.
      Have a read of some of the sites out there, I think the term is quite fitting, besides what else could you call them. It's getting pretty late in the game, the stakes are getting higher than they have ever been, there is so much evidence about global warming, that it's going to become increasingly difficult be politically correct by giving any respect to irrational people who cannot follow a logical argument.

      The start of the sentence : "I think" means I don't have any data - just a guess. Probably shouldn't publish a paper with just that sentence in it should I ?

    96. Re:Whew, no problem then by cvos · · Score: 1
      It predicted more and bigger hurricanes; that hasn't happened.

      Please share your good news with New Orleans, Houston and Southern Florida and tell them it's always a safe place to live.

      --
      I'm just here for the sigs
    97. Re:Whew, no problem then by An+Onerous+Coward · · Score: 1

      I think your analogy of withholding vital medical treatment until things get suddenly and catastrophically worse is apt, though I know it's not what you're aiming for.

      Yes, there's some amount of global warming that we won't be able to stop. We may have even passed a couple of tipping points that are going to compound our problems. But there is still a lot of "expected" CO2 emissions that we could avoid rather easily.

      So what if it costs trillions of dollars to mitigate climate change? You talk about that like it's a huge number. In fact, the worldwide GDP in 2008 was 50T. So even assuming the economy stays flat over the critical next 30 years, that gives us (as a species) about a 1.5 quadrillion budget to work with. A few trillion is a rounding error, and far short of the numbers required for "adaptation".

      It's still quite a wad to blow if global warming is a hoax. But it's not. AGW is the majority view of the scientific community, and the opposition is tiny and fragmented. In short, you can argue all you want over whether the word "consensus" is warranted, but the majority opinion of the experts in the field is that:

      1) Global warming is happening.
      2) It is caused primarily by greenhouse gas emissions from human activities.
      3) The consequences are going to be somewhere between fairly bad and catastrophic.

      To me, it's enough that devoting 1% or 2% of global GDP to stopping things from getting worse.

      I believe you've also significantly underestimated the costs of adaptation and remediation. A lot of people are talking in terms of a 20% drop in global GDP due to the effects of warming. I think that could be conservative. The biosphere provides tens of trillions in direct services to mankind, and underpins 100% of all economic activity. After all, how much economic activity would we have if we were all dead?

      The predictions are absolutely frightening. If we have 3C in warming over the next century -- that's a pretty middle-of-the-road estimate -- we could lose vast numbers of species, perhaps a third of the total. Even if you don't particularly care about the rot-gutted Andean tree smirt, it's a sign of a severe degradation in the ecosystem that keeps us all alive. We really are playing with fire.

      --

      You want the truthiness? You can't handle the truthiness!

    98. Re:Whew, no problem then by NeutronCowboy · · Score: 1

      I should have specified farms that are as far North as Siberia is. Point taken that Sasketchewan produces a good chunk of Canada's agriculture, but at 6.8% of total output, it's not a lot overall. Not to mention that a much larger area has to feed a much smaller population when you compare it to similar areas in the US.

      From a percentage perspective, Canada currently has a much smaller area that can support agriculture. This might change in the future, but it will take money to make the transition. Which is the point I was trying to make.

      --
      Those who can, do. Those who can't, sue.
    99. Re:Whew, no problem then by Reziac · · Score: 1

      The first comment on that first link points out a number of inconsistencies in their argument... next argument? :)

      Point is, there is no consensus, even among equally respected researchers. But there's a lot more noise and thunder on the side that's backed by companies trying to make a buck in alt-energy -- who could not make it in a market not skewed by GW-related restrictions -- which renders the anthro-GW argument somewhat more suspect than it might otherwise be.

      (Reading the fine print on a number of CA voter resolutions is what first brought THAT to my attention.)

      --
      ~REZ~ #43301. Who'd fake being me anyway?
    100. Re:Whew, no problem then by An+Onerous+Coward · · Score: 1

      I read it. Did you?

      There's nothing there to indicate that the current collapse is part of a natural cycle, or that we've touched off something utterly unstoppable.

      We have passed some points of no return. We're still looking ahead at others, and how many more we pass depends entirely on our actions today.

      Whining fatalism helps nobody.

      --

      You want the truthiness? You can't handle the truthiness!

    101. Re:Whew, no problem then by khayman80 · · Score: 1

      No, he's right to say that we can't definitively link hurricane intensity to climate change yet. We might be able to soon (stay tuned) but for the moment the evidence is too weak to say that climate change has made hurricanes measurably worse. He is wrong to say that the IPCC has predicted increased hurricane intensity, though. The IPCC's 4th report only makes the following statement: "It is more likely than not (>50%) that there has been some human contribution to the increases in hurricane intensity."

    102. Re:Whew, no problem then by An+Onerous+Coward · · Score: 1

      While I'd replace all coal with nuclear in a heartbeat given the chance, I don't think nuclear power is viable. To me, it seems too expensive, too politically infeasible, too centralized, and too prone to terrorism. Concentrating solar looks very viable at the moment, and I think geothermal could become a major player before 2020 with the right incentives.

      But I think energy efficiency is the untapped gold mine. I've seen quotes for nuclear running about $6000-$11000 per installed kW of capacity. By my rough calculations, for $3500 you could buy enough CFL bulbs up front* to eliminate the need for that kW of capacity for 30 years.** Even better, CFLs eliminate that demand precisely when the energy is needed. Any generation-based solution has to predict demand and compensate.

      Thank you for your responses to the skeptics. They've been excellent.

      * If you assume that the cost of bulbs will go down over time, or that you could invest the money for the bulbs you don't need immediately, or that another high-efficiency lighting technology will beat CFLs in the future, the strategy works even better.

      ** $3/bulb, bulbs last an average of 5 years, running for 3 hours a day on average, 17w CFL vs. 60w incandescent.

      --

      You want the truthiness? You can't handle the truthiness!

    103. Re:Whew, no problem then by garett_spencley · · Score: 1

      Does anyone actually believe that global warming / climate change is not occurring ?

      I was always under the impression that what was at issue was not whether or not climate change was occurring, but whether or not humans were to blame. Historical data suggests that far more extreme / abrupt climate changes have occurred as recently as a couple of hundred years ago, but today people are blaming CO2 and methane emissions, saying that we're all going to die.

    104. Re:Whew, no problem then by khayman80 · · Score: 1

      Nuclear power is expensive, but it's the only option available right now that we know works on an industrial scale. Concentrated solar is certainly the most promising renewable, but it requires massive battery banks, or expensive water pumping schemes to provide a base load at night. That said, I like it a lot more than photovoltaics. Geothermal only works in certain places, and corrosion makes them very expensive to maintain. In either case, we'd need a superconducting power grid to avoid losses from moving energy from the deserts (solar) or hotspots (geothermal). All these goals are noble, but we need power now to replace coal and oil.

      Incidentally, tide power and osmotic power are also good long term goals.

      And you're right- efficiency is absolutely necessary. But the newer technology has to be better in every way, otherwise people won't switch. My mom refuses to install CFLs because she can't stand the quality of the light (yes, some are better than others, but still no cigar) and the fact that they require time to reach full brightness. I have them nearly everywhere, but my reading light is still an incandescent because the CFLs that can be dimmed are expensive and don't look as nice.

    105. Re:Whew, no problem then by msbl03ss · · Score: 1

      I suggest we all quit breathing

    106. Re:Whew, no problem then by An+Onerous+Coward · · Score: 1

      So, let me understand. You basically skimmed through the stuff you disagreed with so that you could get to the stuff that told you what you wanted to hear. That response is just weak, and I can't see what you saw in it.

      We know for a fact that Jupiter has loads of internal energy, which he entirely ignores. In fact, there's about 60% more energy radiating off the planet than could be explained by the Sun alone. He also spends a bunch of time talking about the Great Red Spot, which actually makes the other guy's point: it's pulling hot air up from Jupiter's depths, where it can be observed.

      Jupiter radiates more energy into space than it receives from the Sun. The interior of Jupiter is hot: the core is probably about 20,000 K. The heat is generated by the Kelvin-Helmholtz mechanism, the slow gravitational compression of the planet. (Jupiter does NOT produce energy by nuclear fusion as in the Sun; it is much too small and hence its interior is too cool to ignite nuclear reactions.) This interior heat probably causes convection deep within Jupiter's liquid layers and is probably responsible for the complex motions we see in the cloud tops. Saturn and Neptune are similar to Jupiter in this respect, but oddly, Uranus is not. [src]

      So I think it's safe to say that the Skeptical Scientist is correct: Jupiter's weather has more to do with Jupiter's internals than the Sun.

      The other guy's discussion of Neptune leads me to believe that he thinks that any change in a picture must be attributable to the Sun, and also be evidence of warming. Pretty lame.

      As the Skeptical Science mentioned elsewhere, there is no observed warming of Jupiter. There is a predicted change in how heat is distributed, based on modeling of some surface phenomena.

      As another respondent in the same thread pointed out:

      I find interesting that "skeptics" so eagerly recommend taking the enormous amount of highly accurate data available for Earth with a grain of salt (or the all shaker for that matter), while at the same time accepting wild conclusions on poorly understood extra-terrestrial "climates" based on very scant, spotty observations.

      Finally, and most important, given that the energy output of the Sun hasn't increased over the last 50 years of direct measurements, what mechanism is responsible for this supposed heat wave?

      --

      You want the truthiness? You can't handle the truthiness!

    107. Re:Whew, no problem then by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      So that's why the ice dissappearing in Antartica, Greenland, etc... is dated to be 100,000 years old or more... but somehow it wasn't a big deal because this happened in 3000BC and 300/1400AD? Hello? This is all much more severe than those other warming periods. Last I can tell, polar bears didn't evolve from black bears in the last 3000 years... they're about to go extinct because this is much worse situation.

    108. Re:Whew, no problem then by Stormcrow309 · · Score: 1

      Actually, I am reading what academics should be reading into your writings. You make bold statements without considerations of what you say, which shows sloppy academic writing skills - which show whether your anonymous or not. I realize that you might not get this from your professors, but in my doctoral program these are important factors since it is stressed that policy makers will make legislation and regulation decisions off our work. We are taught to communicate to all levels and consider our audience.

      It is not a sociological claim that all climate scientists are politically motivated. It is opinion. Just as your comments are opinion when not backed up by evidence, analysis, and synthesis. You can't refute someone by making poor statements. When you make easily defeatable statements based on gross generalizations, then you put yourself and any information you provide in question. Editors and peer reviewers should question your work.

      I worry about the field of climatology and related research, since they present themselves as walking lockstep and any disagreements being arisen from wankers. This is also my problem with discrimination research, were it is very difficult to get results of no discrimination published. In the health care management, public health, and project management fields, where I specialize, we can sometimes have holy wars over theory. Take someone with more of a sociological background and mix them with someone with more of an economic background and start bets on who wins the fist fight. We don't even try to give a perception that we agree with each other. It would be fruitless. Informed disagreement is what drives scientific advancements.

      I think you are just an impassioned student that has been involved in some research and think of yourself as an expert. You just have poor presentation skills, which is quite common among the hard sciences, especially the faddish ones. Work on learning to be eloquent in your communication and you will not get other scholars, such as I, questioning your work due to the lack of presentation skills.

      Get and read the book I suggest, study epistemology, and learn how to apply critical thought to what you write. Otherwise, your just an elitist dick who posts on /. and worries too much about the people who disagree with him, since his god complex means that he isn't ever wrong. Good science is not just playing out in the field or lab, but communicating with both the profession and the public in constructive ways. You have to admit that several climatologists have managed to present themselves as being raving lunatics.

      --

      In God we trust, all others require data.

    109. Re:Whew, no problem then by ryanov · · Score: 1

      There's a lot more thunder on the side that wants to keep things as status quo. Look at how clear it is that things are being affected by humans, and yet there is a "debate" -- largely because of oil-backed think tanks.

    110. Re:Whew, no problem then by khayman80 · · Score: 1

      ... You make bold statements without considerations of what you say, which shows sloppy academic writing skills - which show whether your anonymous or not.

      Okay, I admit it. You got me. I'm really a circus clown. Good thing you didn't bother to discuss any of the links I provided, because they were all just goatse and spyware installs. You must be the only one whose computer hasn't been zombified...

      You can't refute someone by making poor statements. When you make easily defeatable statements based on gross generalizations, then you put yourself and any information you provide in question.

      I'm not sure exactly what you said, because my fuzzy orange wig is getting in my painted eyes, but I agree that people shouldn't ever be sloppy with their language. I accidentally drew too close a comparison between computational physics and the concepts I'm trying to talk about, which are long term climate measurements based on computational inversions of radioisotope concentrations in the Vostok ice core. They're not exactly identical fields, as you so correctly pointed out. And I sincerely apologize for any confusion that my inexcusable sloppiness caused.

      But I'm trying to remember what started this exchange. You were contesting the first paragraph in my post while ignoring the other five paragraphs, I think. And if I recall correctly, you were admonishing me for saying I was a climate scientist because the "about me" page on my homepage said I was a computational physicist, "which is outside climatology."

      First of all, I have to hand it to you: your guess was absolutely correct. Clown school is nothing like climate scientist school. You deftly exposed my fraud, but your genius extends even further. That is, there is absolutely no overlap between computational physics and climate science. None. Your astute observation of this fact, and the space this conversation takes up in the internet archive, will endure so long as humanity does. I salute you, sir!

      You just have poor presentation skills, which is quite common among the hard sciences, especially the faddish ones. Work on learning to be eloquent in your communication and you will not get other scholars, such as I, questioning your work due to the lack of presentation skills.

      Get and read the book I suggest, study epistemology, and learn how to apply critical thought to what you write. Otherwise, your just an elitist dick who posts on /. and worries too much about the people who disagree with him, since his god complex means that he isn't ever wrong.

      I just wanted to let you know that I'm taking your advice to heart. Starting this day, I'm going to focus less on my balloon animals and more on your book. I'm also going to learn some restraint, and stop being so much of a dick. I'm sorry.

      I'll also work on being more eloquent. Believe me when I say that I feel the shame of your (righteous) criticism, and will try to be better in the future!

      Good science is not just playing out in the field or lab, but communicating with both the profession and the public in constructive ways.

      Thanks for the feedback. What, exactly, did you want me to say differently in the last five paragraphs of my original comment? I'm willing to listen to any advice you have that will help me communicate with the public in constructive ways. I realize now that I haven't been acting constructively enough, but I want to change that.

    111. Re:Whew, no problem then by Reziac · · Score: 1

      Whether I agree or disagree isn't my real point. What bothers me is that we're forming assumptions based on far too little data, and turning belief either direction into religion, and anyone who does disagree is vilified rather than examined more closely. And when I saw thin data being leveraged by also-ran corporations, my skeptic radar turned on.

      Climate moves slowly; stars move even more slowly. 50 years of observation is frighteningly inadequate. I'd be a lot more comfortable with 50,000 years worth, but lacking a time machine, that doesn't seem practical. Our secondhand observations (core samples etc.) provide data, all right, but sometimes the analysis seems to be based on foregone conclusions.

      As to Jupiter... funny how the argument you bring up is okay to use there, but when antarctic climatologists tell us the same thing about those ice shelves (that chunks falling off is just part of the normal cycle) somehow then it's bogus. Make up my mind!

      Ah well, ain't gonna be decided here on /.

      --
      ~REZ~ #43301. Who'd fake being me anyway?
    112. Re:Whew, no problem then by Reziac · · Score: 1

      Well, see, I have a problem with that assumption, because even 50 years ago we were belching forth a lot more waste as smoke, yet somehow I'm supposed to believe that LESS CO2 has MORE effect??

      I think right now ALL sides are being highly selective, and making planet-affecting decisions based on any of their wares is dangerous.

      --
      ~REZ~ #43301. Who'd fake being me anyway?
    113. Re:Whew, no problem then by khayman80 · · Score: 1

      You mean this data? ... Or this one?

      Interestingly, I posted another reply to your parent comment that also included those links. Except, I linked to the main page. I was referring to the figures above the one you directly linked to. Figures A2 and A show the Global Annual Mean Surface Air Temperature Change, measured using two different data sets. Uncertainty is indicated by the green bars. Notice the trend in both figures.

      The graph you're talking about from 1880 onwards is from this paper, where they specifically state that the warming in the U.S. is known to be smaller than the rest of the world. The reasons for this are not (to my knowledge) completely understood. But the rest of the world have had temperature sensors too, and we've had satellites up for decades which provide the basis for the statement that global temperatures are increasing faster than temperatures in the U.S.

      In my opinion, any evidence based on "global temperature" that includes data from more than just recent years should be viewed with scepticism, because our worldwide measurement and calculation techniques have changed dramatically, which likely skews the results in one direction or another.

      Figure A (linked to above) is based on this article, which describes adjusting for inhomogeneities in station records and station history adjustments. Sensibly integrating differing datasets is an irritating task, and it's an ongoing process. But it doesn't seem to be a problem climate scientists are ignoring- the techniques for dealing with non-uniform noise characteristics for different data sets are well known.

      Furthermore, we don't just have to rely on mechanical recording devices. Tree rings, coral growth rates, borehole measurements and ice core proxies can be used to independently verify the temperature record. They agree to within the limits of experimental uncertainty.

      NASA presents data on mean global temperature extending from today back to 1880 as a single line graph with no error bars, which is ridiculous.

      Yes, the particular graphs you linked to on that page aren't very detailed. Instead, I suggest the IPCC 4th report. Download chapter 3, open the PDF to page 15 (which is labeled 249) and look at figure 3.6. It includes 5-95% error bars. The trend obtained from the data in figure 3.6 is 0.65 C plus or minus 0.2 C over the period from 1901 to 2005. The report notes that this rate is higher than at any other point since the 11th century.

      My point is that arriving at a "mean global temperature" is a very difficult calculation to make.

      I wholeheartedly agree. I think scientists should be careful to state the estimated uncertainty in all their statements, and abrupt climate change is no exception. It's just that the error bars are now small enough to rule out the hypotheses "climate change isn't happening" and "climate change is largely natural."

    114. Re:Whew, no problem then by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You are not a scientist. You are a moron.

      If you were a scientist and not just another "god will save us!" denier, you would have realized that,

        1. CO2 is a greenhouse gas
        2. CO2 is increasing in atmosphere
        3. source of CO2 is fossil fuel consumption

      Now, your post just proves my hypothesis,

        1. you are not a scientist but a moron.

      "CO2 concentration has steadily increased over the past 100 years, while temperatures have gone up, then down, then up again, then down again (as they are currently)"

      http://moregrumbinescience.blogspot.com/2009/03/does-co2-correlate-with-temperature.html

      A "scientist" like yourself should at least know how to fit a function to data. But I guess you don't see any correlation.

      Cheers!

    115. Re:Whew, no problem then by Stormcrow309 · · Score: 1

      What are the problems with the Vostok data? What are the bias in the sources you used for the Vostok data interpretation? You cover it in a haphazard method. What might be a better strategy is to cover it in clear sections. In addition, covering base assumptions in the data and the biases of the producers of the data is appropriate. For example, what are the biases of the IPCC?

      When discussing your expertise, which you brought to the forefront by stating that you are a climate scientist, it might be better stating that you are a grad student working on theoretical and computational physics with work in using gravitational analysis on glaciers. When you use general terms with the assumption that people will not understand your work or question your appropriateness, then it makes it easy to question your statement of expertise. For example, I am a doctoral student with a masters with a specialization in health care management and advanced management studies, with significant course work in project management (almost done with that specialization) and organizational and strategic analysis, professional experience in IT project management, systems analysis, and non-profit management, and research work in evidence-based nursing and reimbursement systems. So, if I am talking about organizational factors with reimbursement, then I would be an appropriate expert. Discussing mechanical engineering from the position of an expert would not be appropriate for me. If your credentials were that you read some articles without a background in climatology or even critical analysis, then it would be harder to believe what you say.

      Remember that most critical analysis techniques on your work, even when talking with people in public, will be to determine what the appropriateness of your background. When you continue to raise red flags in consideration of critical analysis, such as gross generalizations, you continue to present your side of a discussion as a politically motivated hack, not a scholar. This is exacerbated by the use of the Climate Action Network Canada as a source, a site that shows significant bias.

      --

      In God we trust, all others require data.

    116. Re:Whew, no problem then by tgibbs · · Score: 1

      A more accurate analogy would be:

      a) quit your job to live in a clinic indefinitely with a poor quality of life, spending $100,000 on experimental treatments before it bursts in the hope of delaying the problem that will inevitably come anyway, or
      b) keep your job and save up money, wait until the appendix bursts, and spend $10,000 to have the operation to fix the problem, and get on with your life.

      Except, of course, that sometimes when your appendix finally bursts, there's a pretty good chance that you'll get sick so fast that you can't make it to the doctor, and you die....

    117. Re:Whew, no problem then by TapeCutter · · Score: 1

      You do realise that the complete 4.5Gyr history of earth also includes it being...
      A boiling hot ball of lava.
      Being totally encased in ice several times.
      At leat a billion years with a toxic atmosphere.
      Roughly 2.5 billion years without multi-cellular life.
      Inumerable strikes by huge space rocks, one of which formed the moon.
      How is any of that relevant to the physical properties of our emmissions and the observed effect they are having on the current climate?

      --
      And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage? - Pink Floyd.
    118. Re:Whew, no problem then by khayman80 · · Score: 1

      What are the problems with the Vostok data?

      Diffusion of isotopes over time leads to large horizontal error bars (i.e. it's uncertain when particular temperature/co2 measurements occurred, especially relative to each other). Accumulation rate uncertainty makes these horizontal uncertainties larger at deeper depths (older ages). But vertical uncertainty is smaller (i.e. the absolute maximum of CO2 is less uncertain). Furthermore, the correlation of those values to the global paleoclimate is still a matter of debate, but other ice cores (as well as borehole measurements and coral growth rates) provide measurements that aren't qualitatively different.

      What are the bias in the sources you used for the Vostok data interpretation?

      That was just a source for the graph, which was produced by Petit et. al. in this article. It's been cited by over 1300 authors according to Google Scholar, so you won't have to look hard to find someone disagreeing with him.

      You cover it in a haphazard method. What might be a better strategy is to cover it in clear sections.

      Excellent advice... for someone writing a formal research paper. Did I mention I was jotting down a quick Slashdot post instead?

      When discussing your expertise, which you brought to the forefront by stating that you are a climate scientist, it might be better stating that you are a grad student working on theoretical and computational physics with work in using gravitational analysis on glaciers.

      Brevity is often a virtue. More nuanced explanations such as the one you've proposed ignore the fact that in my previous messages I was only discussing my current project. In earlier years I used other datasets to help correct water storage models such as GLDAS. Glaciers also aren't the main thrust of my research, which is better constraining ocean tide models using satellite gravimetry. It's just that the gravitational signals from the melting glaciers are so large that I have to correct for them otherwise they'd screw up my models. Plus, the quote on the "about me" page was actually "studying physics" that rather than "studing computational and theoretical physics." I think this entire tirade started when you mistook the statement of my interests with my professional field of study, which is more technically a subfield of computational geophysics.

      See how annoyingly long and involved that was? I decided to sum those experiences up with the phrase "climate scientist," and I only did it to provide a first hand eyewitness account that the AC had used a "gross generalization" that wasn't true of me or 9/10 of the climate scientists I know. Then I immediately disowned the AC's idea that people should make decisions based on someone's qualifications, and tried desperately to steer the conversation towards the actual science in question. Degrees and titles are irrelevant. All that matters is the quality of the evidence, and the rigor of the analysis behind it.

    119. Re:Whew, no problem then by TapeCutter · · Score: 1

      Oil, gas and concrete are minor contributors when compared to coal. Every coal fired plant on the planet has been built and sometimes rebuilt since I was born. I see no reason why we cannot acomplish a similar feat with windmills, nukes, solar, etc, in the next 50yrs other than the coal industry objections to it's own extinction.

      --
      And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage? - Pink Floyd.
    120. Re:Whew, no problem then by rrvau · · Score: 1

      I think you'll find that the parts of Antarctica that are warming are over volcanically active regions.

      --
      "The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) H.L. Menc
    121. Re:Whew, no problem then by phantomfive · · Score: 1

      50 years does sound possible to me.

      --
      Qxe4
    122. Re:Whew, no problem then by rrvau · · Score: 1

      I believe I read that the last time CO2 reached "400ppm", the Earth entered an ice-age, which is what the Russians were predicting in the early 70's.

      --
      "The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) H.L. Menc
    123. Re:Whew, no problem then by khayman80 · · Score: 1

      I believe I read that the last time CO2 reached "400ppm", the Earth entered an ice-age, which is what the Russians were predicting in the early 70's.

      Uh... got a link for that? As far as I know, the last time the earth had a CO2 concentration above 300 ppm was at least 500,000 years ago.

      And I'm not sure what you mean by Russians. The ice-age in the 70's quote makes me think you're referring to global cooling, which can be traced back to Newsweek. There are aerosol-induced forcings that cause what is currently referred to as "global dimming" but they're not strong enough to counter the greenhouse gas effects.

    124. Re:Whew, no problem then by rrvau · · Score: 1

      Research was carried out by the military, I believe.

      --
      "The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) H.L. Menc
    125. Re:Whew, no problem then by Sinterklaas · · Score: 1

      So why spend trillions of dollars and cripple the world's economy when the problem can't be reversed anyway.

      - Global climate change is not just a yes/no proposition. The magnitude (and effects) depends on our actions.
      - We are using an unsustainable amount of resources, so the current world economy cannot be sustained anyway. Why not adapt now, when we still have options, instead of trying to adapt later when we are already f**ked.
      - 'Crippling the world economy' is a pretty meaningless statement. Ultimately, what matters is how we can live happily. There is no reason why we shouldn't be able to do that while using far fewer natural resources.

      PS. The latest estimates project major global climate change way before those 100 years of yours. Why not reduce our energy use, so we actually get 100 years to adapt?

    126. Re:Whew, no problem then by atraintocry · · Score: 1

      Oh, plenty of people believe it. Most of them don't end up on Slashdot, one hopes. More than once I have had to correct someone saying something like some_recent_year_picked_at_random was "the coldest on record".

      Luckily that's an easy one to deal with, you just show someone the averages (with one hand, as you scratch your head and wonder at how people can just make things up completely with the other). It's also luckily I don't know any congressmen, since they seem to be a little denser than your average citizen.

    127. Re:Whew, no problem then by TapeCutter · · Score: 1

      Ummm, second link in case you have some non-standard definition of "Late Roman" and "Middle Ages". Note that it is a logical fallacy to claim that we don't know what is causing the current warming because the causes of the MWP (or some other past event) are unclear.

      As for Egypt, the ice shelf in TFA is ~10Kyrs old? - Reconstructions that cover the interval of 10-2,000 years ago are not good enough to claim that the entire planet was definitely hotter at any time during that period but it may have been for periods that were obviously not long enough to melt said ice shelf. There is also a statistical problem comparing very long reconstructions to the last 50-100yrs, ie: if the period is long enough then short events (such as AGW, MWP, LIA) fall under the definition of noise and disappear under the smoothing techniques that MUST be used for them to be statistically valid.

      The link to the Milankovich cycles was to demonstrate that most large climate variations in the distant past can be convincingly explained.

      Ignorance is not an insult. As for arrogance and stupidity, you do realise the scientists who made the reconstructions of past climate that you use to support your tropical Earth fantasy are the same scientists who are warning you that AGW will NOT create a tropical paradise, right?

      --
      And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage? - Pink Floyd.
    128. Re:Whew, no problem then by TapeCutter · · Score: 1

      There are two extremes in the political debate; one says stop everything now, the other says ther isn't a problem. What is actually being proposed at all these UN meetings is a cap and trade treaty, the aim of the treaty is to stabalise CO2 concentrations at twice the pre-industrial levels by 2050-60. To do that we need to reduce our total emmissions from ~10Gt/yr to ~3Gt/yr, personally I think that's simpler than world peace but OTOH I grew up in the 60's during the height of the cold war and never thought I would be sitting next to Russians at work.

      --
      And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage? - Pink Floyd.
    129. Re:Whew, no problem then by rrvau · · Score: 1

      http://www.canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/7326 http://www.ilovemycarbondioxide.com/pdf/No_Evidence.pdf http://jimball.com.au/Warming.htm http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/Carboniferous_climate.html http://www.scotese.com/climate.htm http://www.climatechangefraud.com/content/view/35/190/ http://www.ace.mmu.ac.uk/eae/Climate_Change/Older/Ice_Ages.html I still think that it is the ultimate arrogance that humans think they can alter the planets evolution. Think of continental drift and the accompanying earthquakes, volcanic activity etc. and you'll understand how insignificant humans are.

      --
      "The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) H.L. Menc
    130. Re:Whew, no problem then by Stormcrow309 · · Score: 1

      Actually it is insightful into your work and position. Your blog and posting history on /. framed you differently.

      Bias in the Vostok data is actually good exercise for you to work through, which helps enforce the fundamental flaws in your research so you can fix it. In my work, I have to depend on government data sources, since they are the major supplier of health care data. When working with interpreted data, I need to understand the bias of the department that produced the data, which is normally the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS). Their bias is centered around reducing the cost of provided services, which tends to deflate cost reports. That is why I am starting to work on longitudinal studies of the limited data set (lds), which means that some Patient Identification (PI) has been scrubbed out, is is about as raw as it gets. Comparing it to cost reports from CMS, surveys from hospitals, and the public financial documents of hospitals will allow for a more complete picture. However, I have to realize that lds is raw data and has not been fixed for errors in requests and the actions of the Recovery Audit Contractors. Comparison across all of this data will help reduce the amount of errors.

      Brevity is not your goal. Conciseness is your goal. I have seen too many of my grad students cut their own throat by trying to be brief. Conversely, I have seen many of them try to beat me down with a wall of text. Usually structure, lack of citations, and the conclusion catch both parties.

      --

      In God we trust, all others require data.

    131. Re:Whew, no problem then by Ol+Olsoc · · Score: 1

      I have to assume that you are a political scientist. Your post, laced with scientific terms like "absolutely no evidence", "dramatic warming trend", and "not by a long shot" shows it.

      --
      Why is this even on SlashDot?... Why is this even on Slashdot?...Why is this even on Slashdot?
    132. Re:Whew, no problem then by m4cph1sto · · Score: 1

      I have to assume that you are a political scientist.

      I'll assume you are too. You know, attacking the poster rather than the merits of his argument and all.

    133. Re:Whew, no problem then by Ol+Olsoc · · Score: 1
      That is the point. He really doesn't make any arguments. Refutations aren't arguments.

      To be a skeptic of Human influenced global warming is not a bad thing by a long shot. But too many approach it in the wrong way.

      First off, the heat retention characteristics of certain gases is a fact. There is no ambiguity here, and lots of grade school science projects prove it time and again.

      Another fact is that we are putting these gases into the atmosphere, increasing their percentage as a component of the atmosphere. It is not unlikely that there is potential for some effect of this increase.

      So now, we have some possible effects looking like they might correlate to the increased amount of these greenhouse gases. But we don't really know, do we?

      So we really need research that shows clearly that while the amounts of greenhouse gases is increasing, it has no effect on the atmosphere or it's heat retention properties. Predictions can be made and tested. CO2 might be sequestered somehow, it's effects nullified. We are really at the point of this issue where it is the skeptics turn to do their science.

      But instead we get arguments from incredulity, lots of pumped up language, and little science. Simply trying to deny the other sides arguments, and pointing out any disagreement or mistakes as proof that your own side is "right" is awfully like another argument going around since the mid 1800's....

      --
      Why is this even on SlashDot?... Why is this even on Slashdot?...Why is this even on Slashdot?
    134. Re:Whew, no problem then by phantomfive · · Score: 1

      We're already headed towards world peace, there are fewer conflicts now than even 20 years ago. For example, 20 years ago, half the countries of Central America were in a civil war, whereas now none of them are, and not likely to start any time soon.

      Peace is about ending conflict, not solving all the world's problems. Eventually it will happen anyway (because war is inefficient, people don't like it, and it's expensive), P5Y is about making it happen as soon as possible. While I agree 5 years is very fast, it is mainly a matter of changing people's perspective; for example, if you talk to a typical American, they will tell you 'war is inevitable' because of whatever reason. Once they realize it is not inevitable, peace will begin to happen.

      --
      Qxe4
    135. Re:Whew, no problem then by khayman80 · · Score: 1

      Bias in the Vostok data is actually good exercise for you to work through, which helps enforce the fundamental flaws in your research so you can fix it.

      Yes sir, thank you for helping me with that exercise. It never would've occurred to me that maybe I should think critically about my research. What a revelation! I'll have to get to work fixing all those fundamental flaws, which I've been ignoring since the day of my birth.

      Just out of curiosity, what exactly were the flaws that you noticed in the Petit paper? Clearly, you understand all this much better than I do, so maybe you can help me spot problems in the analysis.

      Brevity is not your goal. Conciseness is your goal.

      Yet again, your boundless intellect exposes even more flaws in my devious plot to take over humanity through my scheme to use language sloppily. At first, I was confused by the fact that Merriam-Webster defines brevity as "shortness or conciseness of expression" and conciseness as "marked by brevity of expression or statement."

      Then I realized that they must be part of the conspiracy too!

    136. Re:Whew, no problem then by Stormcrow309 · · Score: 1

      Excellent method in proving my point. Thanks. You are a hack, not a scientist. Every point I made is a valid point in academic discourse and is how grant committees should look at your work.

      Petit et al. (1999) takes no effort to describe the methodologies used in handling ice cores, which raises questions on the process used. The line "Ice cores give access to palaeoclimate series that includes local temperature and precipitation rate, moisture source conditions, wind strength and aerosol fluxes of marine, volcanic, terrestrial, cosmogenic and anthropogenic origin" is not attributed, which leads it reading as opinion or possible plagerism (Petit et al., 1999, p. 429). Since it is the bases of the work's analysis, it would make sense to give that sentence more concrete foothold in established theory. There is no discussion on this approach's appropriateness or flaws. There is a good discussion on the research team's reason for limiting the data set but not the impact of that limitation. There is no review of further research questions. It reads as a set of scientists too worried about analysis and not with synthesis. The work is biased to its approach and thusly flawed in its presentation.

      --

      In God we trust, all others require data.

    137. Re:Whew, no problem then by khayman80 · · Score: 1

      Petit et al. (1999) takes no effort to describe the methodologies used in handling ice cores, which raises questions on the process used.

      That's because they didn't handle the ice core at all. They simply applied a newer computational algorithm to the data collected from the ice core by other scientists years before they published. In fact, the second to last sentence in the paper says "We thank C. Genthon and J. Jouzel for performing the CO2 spectral analysis..." Their papers are, of course, listed at the end with all the other references.

      But just in case you don't have free access to Nature articles, I've found a source (see section II) that provides a rough overview of the way the ice core was handled. It was sliced into 1.5m sections, put into a clean stainless steel tube in Grenoble, France and melted so that various types of spectroscopic and chemical analysis could be performed.

      But, let me stress that a deep understanding of this process is only available from the original peer-reviewed articles. I only linked that website for the benefit of people who don't have free access to journals through their universities.

      The line "Ice cores give access to palaeoclimate series that includes local temperature and precipitation rate, moisture source conditions, wind strength and aerosol fluxes of marine, volcanic, terrestrial, cosmogenic and anthropogenic origin" is not attributed, which leads it reading as opinion or possible plagerism (Petit et al., 1999, p. 429). Since it is the bases of the work's analysis, it would make sense to give that sentence more concrete foothold in established theory.

      It might be a good idea to read at least the next few sentences before hurling accusations of plagiarism around. When you do, notice that the sentence you quoted is the "topic sentence" of the paragraph. Other sentences in that paragraph serve to expand on individual points in the topic sentence, and they're all referenced. In fact, there are no less than 14 references you can read (they're all listed at the end of the article) to catch up on the science contained in that sentence.

      There is no discussion on this approach's appropriateness or flaws.

      Really? How about...

      1. Page 431, paragraph 2, sentence 4: "This approach underestimated deltaTs by a factor of ~2 in Greenland (ref 22) and, possibly, by up to 50% in Antarctica (ref 23)."
      2. Page 431, paragraph 3. (Virtually the entire paragraph is devoted to understanding shortcomings in the deuterium-temperature connection.)
      3. Page 431, paragraph 4, sentence 3: "... the Vostok record may differ from coastal (ref 28) sites in E. Antarctica and perhaps from West Antarctica as well."
      4. Page 434, paragraph 6, sentence 4: "However, considering the large gas-age/ice-age uncertainty (1000 years, or even more if we consider the accumulation-rate uncertainty), we feel that it is premature to infer the sign of the phase relationship between CO2 and temperature at the start of the terminations."

      There is a good discussion on the research team's reason for limiting the data set but not the impact of that limitation.

      Limiting the data set in what sense? If you're referring to the fact that they stopped drilling to avoid contaminating Lake Vostok, the impact of that limitation is that the time series stops roughly 500,000 years ago rather than extending slightly farther back in time. If you're talking about some other data set limitation, you'll need to be a little more specific so I know precisely what you mean.

      There is no review of further research questions.

      Really? how about...

      1. Page 433, paragraph 4, sentence 3: "We suggest that there also may be some link between the Vostok dust record and deep ocean circulation th
    138. Re:Whew, no problem then by Stormcrow309 · · Score: 1

      That's because they didn't handle the ice core at all. They simply applied a newer computational algorithm to the data collected from the ice core by other scientists years before they published. In fact, the second to last sentence in the paper says "We thank C. Genthon and J. Jouzel for performing the CO2 spectral analysis..." Their papers are, of course, listed at the end with all the other references.

      Are you talking about: J R Petit, J Jouzel, D Raynaud, N I Barkov, et al. (1999). Climate and atmospheric history of the past 420,000 years from the Vostok ice core, Antarctica. Nature, 399(6735), 429-436. Retrieved April 7, 2009, from ProQuest Medical Library database. (Document ID: 42351682)? Because the phrase is not in there. The paper reads like the researchers were involved in the drilling.

      It might be a good idea to read at least the next few sentences before hurling accusations of plagiarism around. When you do, notice that the sentence you quoted is the "topic sentence" of the paragraph. Other sentences in that paragraph serve to expand on individual points in the topic sentence, and they're all referenced. In fact, there are no less than 14 references you can read (they're all listed at the end of the article) to catch up on the science contained in that sentence.

      Actually, the statement is "leads it reading as opinion or possible plagerism" which is really close to the truth. The section is clumsily written, almost like they are trying to shove two thesis statements into the same flow. It goes warrant one, warrant two, evidence one, evidence two, synthesis two, synthesis one, closure. Since it is hard to track its flow, the section is a difficult read, which causes the warrant to come across badly, removing support from the general thesis.

      Really? How about...

      That is data analysis and synthesis. I am asking about the appropriateness and validity of the approach, not the data. If a research does not discuss the appropriateness of their approach, then it is impossible to validate the reasons for the approach.

      Limiting the data set in what sense?

      I would read p. 430-431 if I were you. They limited the ice core due to volcanic activity without discussing the impact. None of my editors would allow me to get away with that.

      Really? how about...

      If you want someone to research something, you state 'This study raises these questions for further research' or something similar. Another method is to state 'We suggest... but it would require further research'.

      --

      In God we trust, all others require data.

    139. Re:Whew, no problem then by khayman80 · · Score: 1

      Are you talking about: J R Petit, J Jouzel, D Raynaud, N I Barkov, et al. (1999). Climate and atmospheric history of the past 420,000 years from the Vostok ice core, Antarctica. Nature, 399(6735), 429-436. Retrieved April 7, 2009, from ProQuest Medical Library database. (Document ID: 42351682)? Because the phrase is not in there. The paper reads like the researchers were involved in the drilling.

      Yeah, that's the paper I originally linked, but you're right- the phrase isn't there. I was at work (with access to the journals) when I wrote that, and had 4-5 of the older Vostok papers open at once. That particular phrase is probably in one of those papers, but I don't have journal access at home (and my cache is empty) so I can't verify that right now. The phrase you're looking for in the paper I did link is below the references, in the Acknowledgements section: "We thank the drillers from the St. Petersburg Mining Institute; the Russian, French and US participants for field work and ice sampling..."

      Sorry about the confusion; I was juggling too many papers to keep them all straight on my desktop. But you can also verify that J. Jouzel is referenced many times, with reference 6 being published in 1987 (several years after the section from 950-2083m was extracted in 1982-83), and 12,13 published in 1993 and 1996. C. Genthon is reference 14, published in 1987.

      I must humbly disagree that the paper "read like the researchers were involved in the drilling." They've certainly tried to describe the drilling process in a brief manner for the benefit of the reader, but acknowledged the hard work of their fellow scientists, thanked them for their contributions, and provided citations to their original work in extracting and sampling the ice core. It all seems perfectly civilized.

      They limited the ice core due to volcanic activity without discussing the impact. None of my editors would allow me to get away with that.

      That limitation has exactly the same impact as stopping the drilling above Lake Vostok. It merely truncates the time series, preventing the reconstruction of data earlier than 423,000 years ago. You're probably thinking about studies which fail to sample the population in a uniform or unbiased manner, and thus alter the resulting statistics because they're using a skewed sample. This is a serious problem in many sociological studies, but it's not a relevant concern here. An ice core taken from a shallower hole (like the 3310m core in the paper) has precisely one impact: it provides data back to 423,000 years before the present instead of even further back in time.

      The section is clumsily written, almost like they are trying to shove two thesis statements into the same flow. It goes warrant one, warrant two, evidence one, evidence two, synthesis two, synthesis one, closure. Since it is hard to track its flow, the section is a difficult read, which causes the warrant to come across badly, removing support from the general thesis. ... If you want someone to research something, you state 'This study raises these questions for further research' or something similar. Another method is to state 'We suggest... but it would require further research'.

      Oh. I thought you were trying to make some kind of point regarding the science. Instead, you were talking about their need for better editing. Heck, you're probably even right. Their writing style probably isn't the same as the articles in your field, and your articles are undoubtedly better written. I concede this point.

      That is data analysis and synthesis. I am asking about the appropriateness and validity of the approach, not the data. If a research does not discuss the appropriateness of their approach, then it is impossible to validate the reasons for the approach.

      You said "There is no discussion on

    140. Re:Whew, no problem then by Stormcrow309 · · Score: 1

      I don't think that a full discourse on the basics of theory is required. In sociological work, which is funny to say because I am more of an economist and game theorist in approach, we have to state the strengths, weaknesses, and appropriateness of theory we apply to our research. For example, I use the powers approach in organization analysis, which is considered revolutionary in health care. (All you financial analysts, stop laughing) I have to state why the powers approach of financial analysis is appropriate, what the weakness of that approach, and what benefits it gives. Another example is when I use game theory approaches. I don't have to justify the math, just the method of analysis. Most of my other doctoral cohort is struggling with it at our stage, but I am overloading and progressing faster then the others. I am almost caught up with the next cohort.

      What I find that is better about the social sciences in comparison to the hard sciences is that a good slice of us training in dealing with people. I think it improves presentation skills.

      --

      In God we trust, all others require data.

    141. Re:Whew, no problem then by An+Onerous+Coward · · Score: 1

      My understanding of CSP was that, to increase its baseload ability, you just made it bigger (especially the molten salt tank). I don't remember the source, but I remember someone was quoted as saying that you can store energy as heat 20x cheaper than you could store it in a battery. As the reservoir gets bigger, it loses heat more slowly. Build it big enough, and you can keep it warm all night, even as you're drawing power from it.

      You also have the option of burning something to keep the fluid warm, for cloudy days or to provide more baseload.

      Transmission losses, while not negligible, seem manageable. I've seen figures of about 2-3% to move electricity 600mi using HVDC. I mean, it's on Wikipedia, so it must be right.

      The big problem I see with the "we need power now" argument is that we could probably install several gigawatts of CSP and wind before we could even get the nuclear reactor through the permitting process.

      --

      You want the truthiness? You can't handle the truthiness!

    142. Re:Whew, no problem then by khayman80 · · Score: 1

      My understanding of CSP was that, to increase its baseload ability, you just made it bigger (especially the molten salt tank).

      Yeah, you might be right about that. I think I remember seeing similar studies, and probably spoke too soon. I've yet to be convinced that this is a sure bet, but I'm delighted that Obama is putting more research money into these areas.

      You also have the option of burning something to keep the fluid warm, for cloudy days or to provide more baseload.

      The only thing we can afford to burn in the long run is hydrogen, which requires energy to produce.

      Transmission losses, while not negligible, seem manageable. I've seen figures of about 2-3% to move electricity 600mi using HVDC. I mean, it's on Wikipedia, so it must be right.

      Yes, HVDC looks promising, but some population centers are farther away than that from a good spot for solar or geothermic (not all northern countries are as fortunate as Iceland). In the long run this isn't a serious problem because we will eventually build a superconducting grid, but until then it's a nuisance.

      The big problem I see with the "we need power now" argument is that we could probably install several gigawatts of CSP and wind before we could even get the nuclear reactor through the permitting process.

      If it works, that's great. The problem is that no country has ever successfully powered their civilization in that manner, so it's a bit of a gamble. France gets 80% of its power from nuclear, so we know it works. I'm also inclined to say that the delay in getting new nuclear plants online is more of a problem with lenders being extremely cautious about nuclear energy because of public disapproval, so the permitting process is much more ridiculous than it should be. Nuclear power isn't nearly as dangerous as it's commonly made out to be, and we need enrichment anyway for medical isotopes so terrorism will always be a problem.

      I think concentrated solar is great, and might be our best bet in the long run. I just don't want these unproven technologies to be our only bet. It'd be nice to see our civilization put no more than 1/3 of its power generation into one particular technology so that the loss of any particular mode of power generation isn't catastrophic.

    143. Re:Whew, no problem then by khayman80 · · Score: 1

      I asked for a link. As in, one (possibly two if I've got a lot of spare time). I opened up several of the seven links you pasted into your message (with no context or explanation) and can't see anything that backs up your statements, which were (1) That the CO2 concentration has recently hit 400ppm, and (2) global cooling was a serious, widespread prediction of the scientific community. I've provided specific links to all the claims I've made so that you can follow up on those claims. If you can provide a specific, credible link to back up each of your claims, I'll look at them.

      I still think that it is the ultimate arrogance that humans think they can alter the planets evolution. Think of continental drift and the accompanying earthquakes, volcanic activity etc. and you'll understand how insignificant humans are.

      Continental drift and earthquakes are completely irrelevant to the climate. As for volcanic activity, eruptions only put about a hundredth of the CO2 into the atmosphere that humans do. Massive eruptions in the geologically distant past (such as the Siberian traps which are a suspected cause of the Permian extinction) have likely put more CO2 into the atmosphere, but none of the eruptions in the last 500,000 years pushed the CO2 level above 300 ppm.

    144. Re:Whew, no problem then by TapeCutter · · Score: 1

      You may enjoy Dyson's out of character rant against prediction but if your theory does not make a prediction that can be tested then it's not science...

      "One warning sign that a dangerous warming is beginning in Antarctica, will be a breakup of ice shelves in the Antarctic Peninsula just south of the recent January 0C isotherm; the ice shelf in the Prince Gustav Channel on the east side of the peninsula, and the Wordie Ice Shelf; the ice shelf in George VI Sound, and the ice shelf in Wilkins Sound on the west side." - Mercer, Nature, 1978, v271 pp.321-325

      The Wilkins shelf in TFA is ~10Kyrs old and is the 10th ancient ice shelf on the peninsula to break up in recent years.

      --
      And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage? - Pink Floyd.
    145. Re:Whew, no problem then by rrvau · · Score: 1

      You obviously won't accept anything that contrdicts your religious fervour. Possibly you one of the beneficiaries of the GW scare campaign. GW, caused by people, HAS to be bullshit as politicians embrace it! Wake up.

      --
      "The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) H.L. Menc
    146. Re:Whew, no problem then by khayman80 · · Score: 1

      The only thing we can afford to burn in the long run is hydrogen, which requires energy to produce.

      No, actually that's wrong. You were right about concentrated solar allowing for a burner backup. Biofuels won't cause any net CO2 increase because their combustion only releases the CO2 they've recently absorbed to grow. I'm not a big fan of generation 1 biofuels, because they tend to provide an incentive for farmers to grow crops that humans can't eat. But generation 2 biofuels use the discarded husks of human-edible plants and might be industrially feasible some day. Genetically engineered bacteria also look like they could produce biofuels given enough time.

      I'm not sure there'd be a point to building that kind of backup into the concentrated solar plant, though. Wouldn't it be exactly like building an ordinary oil-powered backup generator, which we already have? It seems like there wouldn't be any point to doing that just to use the sodium loop...

    147. Re:Whew, no problem then by rrvau · · Score: 1

      Strange how the Antarctic ice is thickening. Even stranger that increases in CO2 levels FOLLOW a warming event by 600 to 10 years rather than cause it. Strange that the Earth's mean temperature has been level or cooling since 1998. Even stranger that Mars has experienced warming similar to Earth, and mankind hasn't stuffed that planet .. yet. Strange that a relatively low temperature suitable for carbon based life as we know it is an exception to the mean temperatures over the Earth's history as far as we are aware. Likewise CO2 levels. What is a climate scientist? What discipline did you study? RRV

      --
      "The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) H.L. Menc
  12. Jeez by Haiyadragon · · Score: 0, Offtopic

    How convenient.

  13. We got ice by oldhack · · Score: 0, Offtopic

    So... who's bringing the gin? Vodka is cool, too.

    And lemon. Mustn't forget the lemon.

    --
    Fuck systemd. Fuck Redhat. Fuck Soylent, too. Wait, scratch the last one.
    1. Re:We got ice by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Sounds like a girl drink.

    2. Re:We got ice by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      One of the interesting phenomena that has engaged our modern culture is the idea that being stupid is cool. Homer Simpson, Beavis and Butthead, etc.

      The point where this idea becomes troublesome is when it's unclear if someone pretending to be stupid is attempting ironic humor, or if they're actually just stupid.

    3. Re:We got ice by oldhack · · Score: 1

      80+ proof is 80+ proof to this alcoholic.

      --
      Fuck systemd. Fuck Redhat. Fuck Soylent, too. Wait, scratch the last one.
  14. Lucky it was a clean break by Centurix · · Score: 0, Offtopic

    The last thing we needed was a pinch at the end, then we'll be wiping for the next 100 years.

    --
    Task Mangler
    1. Re:Lucky it was a clean break by interkin3tic · · Score: 1

      You know, they say it was a clean break, but I think they're going to have a few rebound flings before calling it quits for reals.

    2. Re:Lucky it was a clean break by pwfffff · · Score: 1

      Well I sure hope it was a clean break. It'd suck to have to break it again just to set it correctly before the cast goes on.

  15. Finally by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Antarctic Ice Bridge Finally Breaks Off

    Yes, finally ! That ice bridge had it coming, acting so cool when it's just like everyone else.

    Stupid ice bridge.

  16. Re:Not that it matters ... by palegray.net · · Score: 5, Funny

    Now you've gone and ruined his nefarious plot to continuously drive his SUV until he's the proud new owner of oceanside property. In these uncertain economic times, how else is a fella supposed to increase his property value? Huh? Huh? Bastard.

  17. Good, the oceans were getting warm.... by CFD339 · · Score: 1

    ...a few more really big ice cubes floating around should help a great deal.

    oh, and as the saying goes "Pictures, or it didn't happen."

    --
    The problem with quotes on the internet, is that nobody bothers to check their veracity. -- Abraham Lincoln
  18. Ohhhhhh...... by DavidD_CA · · Score: 1

    Ohhhhhh...... *SNAP!*

    --
    -David
  19. Re:Not that it matters ... by JWSmythe · · Score: 3, Insightful

        Not to argue the point, because it's always a holy war with folks, but there's some logistics to that, which you failed to see.

        If the seas rise by 10 to 20 feet at the coastlines, coastal areas will flood. That means the ports will be under water, and nothing will come in by sea. International imports will be severely hampered. Pretty much, if you can't bring it in by plane, it won't happen.

        If coastal areas flood, major highways, bridges, and train tracks will become unusable.

        People will migrate from the flooded areas to higher ground (like, your 900 feet up), but food supplies will be very limited, and transportation will be very difficult without oil coming into the country.

        So, even people living on high ground that won't be flooded will be affected.

    --
    Serious? Seriousness is well above my pay grade.
  20. Re:Not that it matters ... by Cassius+Corodes · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Yes, because we have lost the technology to build ports...

    --
    Control is an illusion, order our comforting lie. From chaos, through chaos, into chaos we fly
  21. End of the world by nitin.sahai · · Score: 0

    OMFG, teh end awf da word haz begun. But wait!! Zesus will safe us all, lets all prey.

  22. Re:Not that it matters ... by palegray.net · · Score: 1

    That means the ports will be under water, and nothing will come in by sea.

    Sounds like an excellent opportunity for those in the business of building ports.

  23. Re:Not that it matters ... by palegray.net · · Score: 1

    I just had a conversation with my future children through my patent-pending Future Convo Iterator(TM), and they're actually pretty happy with the way society turned out. Of course, this is in light of major technological advances in completely unrelated areas... in other words, we're not going to destroy the frigging planet. Have some faith in humanity's relentless drive to outdo itself.

  24. Re:Not that it matters ... by im_thatoneguy · · Score: 1

    ... or eat corn grown domestically.

    That being said. 20 feet rise in sea levels and out boss will need to find a new office buidling.

  25. "the wilkins ice shelf con job" by jaiteace · · Score: 3, Interesting

    >...and provides further evidence or rapid change in the region. Not everyone agrees. For another spin on this event take a look at http://icecap.us/images/uploads/Wilkins_Ice_Shelf_con.pdf which suggests that the evidence for rapid climate change in this area is missing and suggests that, at best, hyperbole is involved.

    1. Re:"the wilkins ice shelf con job" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I've read trash from these guys before. They always make huge mistakes, because they know very little about the images they are looking at. This article confuses pack ice with the ice shelf and pretends they are the same. They aren't. Pack ice is very thing and fragile, while the ice shelf is much thicker and contains very old ice. The conclusions are all based on area covered and claims that losing a little sea ice is no big deal, because we lose (and gain) lots more pack ice every year. That's just silly. As far as temperatures, we don't really have enough measurements. Air temps don't count nor do sea surface temps play much of a roll. Sadly, we have no clue what the ocean current temps are as no one is measuring them. I know you don't want to pay for that.

  26. The size of Jamaica by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Funny

    Can someone please convert that into units we can understand, like States of Delaware, or Long Islands.

  27. Re:Not that it matters ... by interkin3tic · · Score: 5, Insightful

    "See doc, there's a natural progression to blood pressure. High low high low. It's going up,BFD.

    Now, I'm gunna eat this bag of potato chips and get a big mac and feel okay about it."

    You have to love it how some people cling to the first rationalization that allows them to keep doing what they want, from the time they're kids right up to when they die.

  28. Re:Not that it matters ... by CRCulver · · Score: 4, Informative

    The building of new ports takes years. They aren't something you can just knock up in a day.

  29. Re:Not that it matters ... by Cassius+Corodes · · Score: 1

    That's the reason I'm fairly optimistic about that - humans as a race rarely solve any underlying problems but are very good at finding workarounds. So get ready to enjoy your hydrogen hummer!

    --
    Control is an illusion, order our comforting lie. From chaos, through chaos, into chaos we fly
  30. Look on the bright side.. by slashmojo · · Score: 1

    There could be all sorts of cool stuff waiting to be discovered under the ice down there in Antarctica.. maybe atlantis (unlikely), or the fortress of solitude (slightly more likely), but more than anything it is really the last (mostly) unspoiled wilderness on the planet and it is a very big place!

    I for one would quite like to go exploring there if it was just a tad warmer.. ;)

  31. Re:Not that it matters ... by tezbobobo · · Score: 4, Funny

    Sure - five years to build a port. Then start on the next for when that port is drowned.

  32. Antarctic has no West or East by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Western side? Didn't you mean Northern side?

  33. Jihaaaaaad!! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    First, those damn Persians and their bumb, then Kim Il Jr and his rocket, and now, this. Armageddon is upon us!! FEAR GOD !! The time is FAST APPROACHING !!

    Eat at Dina's !! Great food at a great price for the coming Apocalypse !!

  34. SUVs are not safe. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Informative

    http://www.gladwell.com/2004/2004_01_12_a_suv.html

  35. Metric by tux0r · · Score: 1

    An ice bridge linking a shelf of ice the size of Jamaica to two islands in Antarctica has snapped.

    Having trouble visualising... Seriously guys, we've already established Libraries of Congress as the arbitrary measure of choice, why introduce the size of Jamaica now?

    --
    ( Redundancy is ) ^ n
    1. Re:Metric by badfish99 · · Score: 4, Funny

      For us Europeans, could somebody say how many Belgiums there are in a Jamaica, please?

    2. Re:Metric by corsec67 · · Score: 1

      There are 2.75 Belgiums in a Jamaca.

      But seriously, is 11,100 km^2 so hard to say?

      --
      If I have nothing to hide, don't search me
    3. Re:Metric by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      0.36 Belgiums in a Jamaica.

    4. Re:Metric by AliasMarlowe · · Score: 1

      There are 2.75 Belgiums in a Jamaca.

      Perhaps in value of crops or music, but in area it's the other way around: there are 2.75 Jamaicas in a Belgium.
      Jamaica is 11100 sq.km, Belgium is 30528 sq.km, according to their respective Wikipedia pages.

      --
      Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities. - Voltaire
    5. Re:Metric by Hognoxious · · Score: 1

      There are 2.75 Belgia in a Jamaca.

      Istud Tibi Fixavi.

      --
      Confucius say, "Find worm in apple - bad. Find half a worm - worse."
    6. Re:Metric by PGillingwater · · Score: 3, Funny

      Belgium's area (assuming no mountains or hills) is 30,528 km^2. [Wikipedia]

      Jamaica's area is 11,100 km^2.

      Dividing, we see that there are 2.75 Jamaicas for every Belgium.

      On that basis, the Ice shelf is just over a third (0.364) the size of Belgium. Damn Flanders.

      --
      Paul Gillingwater
      MBA, CISSP, CISM
    7. Re:Metric by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      about 0.36

    8. Re:Metric by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      2/7

    9. Re:Metric by oldhack · · Score: 3, Funny

      This is a family website. Please refrain from using the b word gratuitously.

      --
      Fuck systemd. Fuck Redhat. Fuck Soylent, too. Wait, scratch the last one.
  36. Of course, nobody has seen fit to mention by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 1, Interesting

    that there have been a number of Richter 5 earthquakes in the area in recent years that contributed a lot to the breakup of the ice.

    Sure. Let's just let everybody think it's yet another indication of anthropogenic global warming.

    Just look up the USGS reports. Of course, so many people just don't want to bother doing that...

    1. Re:Of course, nobody has seen fit to mention by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I don't see anybody credible suggesting that global warming caused this. I do, however, see a concrete, testable hypothesis in the summary: ice will disappear from Antarctica faster now that the Wilkens Ice Shelf has fallen. This is pretty much accepted as fact in the geological community, since it has been verified MANY times, at many glaciers. Moreover, the physics and chemistry are well understood. The latter does have a relation to global warming: it will cause it, as less solar radiation is reflected into space.

      Changes in water salinity at the poles is also slowing the flow of heat in the world's oceans. This can be expected to cause major climate change. Indeed, the Atlantic Gulf Stream is driven by the Atlantic conveyor, and without the conveyor, Britain and North Western Europe will cool to levels comparable to other regions at the same latitude, like Canada and Siberia. You don't even want to know what would happen if the conveyor stopped, as has happened in the past.

    2. Re:Of course, nobody has seen fit to mention by Exception+Duck · · Score: 1

      I still think itÂs the pirates. CanÂt have anything to do with co2

  37. That might be true, but by varghan · · Score: 4, Insightful

    the country I live in, the Netherlands, has one fourth of the land below sealevel by as much as 48 feet already. I guess we can handle a few additional feet of water. More water spurs great engineering, and has done so since medieval times. That doesn't mean you can't leave your SUV at home and take your bicycle to work today, though.

    1. Re:That might be true, but by Son+of+Byrne · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Not everyone lives in an area where bicycling to work is feasible. For instance, I used to try to ride to work about 15 miles one way each day. That wasn't really a big deal until I had a kid and decided to stop risking my life going to work and back each day.

      Our roads here are barely big enough for 2 cars to pass each other and don't have paved shoulders. Yet, I still see people riding on these roads. I think it's cool that they're not driving, but I know how dangerous it is and you won't catch me doing it.

      --
      I'd happily pay you Tuesday for a biopsy today!
    2. Re:That might be true, but by dargaud · · Score: 1

      I've always wondered... where does the rainwater go ? Do you pump it off into the sea or does it simply evaporates ? And in the latter case, how come the ground doesn't become ever more salty due to runoffs ?

      --
      Non-Linux Penguins ?
    3. Re:That might be true, but by varghan · · Score: 1

      The simple answer: lots of dikes are built to guide the rivers to the sea. In some places the land is several meters lower than the riverbed. This usually doesn't go wrong, but if it does (during very hot summers) the dikes may break and flood parts of the land. This is what actually happened in Wilnis in 2003. The dike gave away to the water and the canal poured into the surrounding land. The canal was quickly sealed and the water pumped away. Luckily most of the land is divided into separate sections, so that only small parts flood. Basically, when the dikes break, we need to pump like crazy.

    4. Re:That might be true, but by jafac · · Score: 1

      Oh yeah? Well, the country I live in, Atlantis, has 100% of it's land below sea level by as much as 3000 feet already. We can handle a few additional feet of water.

      BRING IT BITCHES!

      More water spurs great engineering, and that's exactly why we had nuclear powered flying machines and death rays, 2000 years before your moronic asses even figured out bronze.

      --

      These are my friends, See how they glisten. See this one shine, how he smiles in the light.
  38. Re:Not that it matters ... by ionix5891 · · Score: 1

    and the seas will rise faster than the planning permission beuracracy can work its magic?

  39. Re:Not that it matters ... by McSnarf · · Score: 1

    Now... If floating ice melts, how will this affect the water level? :)
    (No liberal arts majors, please...)

  40. Re:Not that it matters ... by bytesex · · Score: 1

    The rising of sea levels of 10 feet will take years. Centuries even.

    --
    Religion is what happens when nature strikes and groupthink goes wrong.
  41. Re:Not that it matters ... by thesupraman · · Score: 1

    Idiot, first you claim to want to avoid politics, then put a crazy political barrow...

    The very most aggressive estimates of sea level rise over the next hundred years is in the order of 3 feet, the average is closer to a foot, and those figures are from strong global warming proponents.

    Also note that the figures used to show ANY unexpected sea level rise are from satellite, whereas the ground based (and significantly more robust..) systems do not show the same data.. oops.

    Of course global climate change proponents are also now saying that cooling in the Antarctic is 'expected' as part of global warming, which of course would result in sea levels drops - luckily either way the figures are not high.

    Of course, dont go letting facts get in the way of your fear.

  42. Penguins v Polar Bears by scorpivs · · Score: 1

    If it were an oil field, Wall Street, Detroit or Silicone Valley, you could count on something being done about it right away. NSLIG (no such luck, I guess.)

    --
    There is nothing to FEAR but NOTHING itself; and I fear there is a whole lot of nothing going on. --scorpivs
    1. Re:Penguins v Polar Bears by scorpivs · · Score: 1

      ...I didn't get 5 feet from my terminal before I thought I heard Charleton Heston exclaiming, "They finally did it... Those S.O.B's..."

      --
      There is nothing to FEAR but NOTHING itself; and I fear there is a whole lot of nothing going on. --scorpivs
  43. Re:Not that it matters ... by palegray.net · · Score: 1

    I guess by comparison to dudes like Warren Buffett I'm pretty poor. It's kinda hard to really figure my relative economic value, though... I'm posting from a laptop I purchased in the last year, operating a couple of development servers connected to this broadband connection, in control of a few production servers in two datacenters, driving a 2006 Hyundai Sonata (hey, I like the car, lay off...), posting on Slashdot in my obvious spare time :).

  44. Re:Not that it matters ... by houghi · · Score: 1

    Just open the underwater port and use it as a water drain. If you do it smartly, you can remove the salt and presto, fresh water on Mars.

    --
    Don't fight for your country, if your country does not fight for you.
  45. Hasn't gone down yet by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    The ice shelf is quite north: on the Antarctic Circle. While the days are fast getting shorter, there will be only a few days without a sunrise. However, even then, the noon twilight can be quite bright, especially with all that ice and snow.

  46. Re:Not that it matters ... by LordVader717 · · Score: 5, Informative

    Most estimates don't account for melting of continental Ice (Antarctic). That is because most expect the antarctic climate to be stable. The observed melting of Ice is worse than the estimates suggested by climate models.
    This causes concern that the antarctic climate could be much more dynamic than we think.

    A change in the climate of Antarctica could lead to large amounts of continental ice melting, which would lead to sea level rises much more than a couple of feet.

  47. And I would say by Sycraft-fu · · Score: 3, Insightful

    That if global warming really will be a very bad thing, then our energy should be spent trying to deal with it when it happens, not prevent it. Why? Well because we are pretty sure that the Earth has been much hotter (and cooler) in the past than it is now. We are about as certain as we can be that there has been a long history of climate fluctuations. Thus it doesn't matter if the current one is natural or man made, because we are going to have to deal with one like it at some point. So that means the real focus should be how to deal with the eventuality, not how to prevent this particular one, if it is in fact preventable.

    Unless we can get the ability to control the climate such that fluctuations like that won't happen again (and I seriously doubt that) then preparation is what we need. If we spend a great deal of effort preventing this shift, only to get screwed over by another one, then no good is done. Likewise if it turns out this shift is natural and nothing we can do will prevent it, again no good is done.

    Now this all assume you accept the idea that a slightly warmer average temperature will lead to disastrous conditions. However that does seem to be what is claimed in general. Well, if that is in fact what you believe, then you really should be advocating focusing on how to deal with it, not how to prevent it unless you believe you can prevent it when it isn't a human caused phenomena.

    1. Re:And I would say by TapeCutter · · Score: 3, Insightful

      So let me get this straight, your suggesting we ignore the leak in the hull and keep bailing?

      --
      And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage? - Pink Floyd.
    2. Re:And I would say by KDR_11k · · Score: 1

      Yes, the Earth has been warmer. It has also been without billions of humans on its surface. Just because it's happened in the past doesn't mean we want to see it happen again.

      Our first problem is dealing with our crops and stuff, those aren't as tolerant to different climates as humans, lowering our food output is not going to go well for many million people. It doesn't have to cause major disasters, all that's needed is to hurt our harvests and reduce the food production more than we can deal with, then we've got starvation. Of course it probably won't hit the western nations much, we've got a surplus of food (that can get lost later on but I think that'll take a few centuries) but most of the human population live in poorer countries where they have enough trouble feeding people with the harvests they get.

      --
      Justice is the sheep getting arrested while an impartial judge declares the vote void.
    3. Re:And I would say by AliasMarlowe · · Score: 2, Insightful

      So let me get this straight, your suggesting we ignore the leak in the hull and keep bailing?

      I don't exactly agree with GP either, but I think he's suggesting we invest in powerful bilge pumps (to continue your analogy). At least he didn't suggest the other landlubber approach to a leaky vessel: "If water's flowing in through this hole, then let's make a bigger hole lower down so it can flow back out..."
      So-called clean coal comes to mind, along with all of the arguments why less-developed countries should be allowed to increase their greenhouse emissions.

      --
      Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities. - Voltaire
    4. Re:And I would say by Sycraft-fu · · Score: 2, Informative

      No, that is the opposite of what I argue, rather. The argument of "Let's fix this climate change because we caused it," is one that is like saying "Let's just bail the water out by hand because we made the hole in the sub, never mind that the thing may start leaking later at a rate we can't bail." My argument is that we instead spend the money on bilge pumps so we can survive the leak.

      What I mean is that if we indeed are the cause of this climate shift, and if we indeed can stop it, it still isn't worth it. Why? Because it'll happen at some point anyhow. The climate has never been static. At some point, we are going to have the world get hotter, no matter what we do. So, if that is a major problem, we need to be ready to deal with it, not trying to stop this one.

      To keep with your ship idea, you don't avoid sinking on a ship by spending your energy making sure nobody causes a leak. You avoid sinking by making sure the ship can stay afloat, even if it does have a leak, no matter if that leak was caused by someone on the ship or a natural phenomena. You discover that in reality this is precisely the case: Boats have bilge pumps (how many depends on the size) to remove water from the bilge. There is no way to keep the boat 100% free of leaks, so you pump the water out when it accumulates.

      Same idea here. Unless you have some suggestion as to how we can lock the climate in it's current state, remembering that it has always been in a state of flux, then we should be worrying about how we can survive the changes, not if we caused the present one.

    5. Re:And I would say by rtb61 · · Score: 1

      Basically that is the idea. We continue to ruthlessly exploit and pollute the planet, so the rich can get richer. Than flood out all major coastal cities, so the poor can die in the hundreds of millions, basically the haves and haves more principle as concocted by lobbyiests. Ice ages have happened in the past and then the planet heated up as conditions changed but, there were not cities housing billions of people in danger zones, or a whole range of pollutants scattered around those cities to be catastrophically released into the environment.

      You really have to understand that there are people amongst the rich and greedy and their supporters who really don't care if all life expires on this planet as long as they were rich and powerful along the way. So no matter what proof or, how apparent it becomes they will continue to lie and pay for those lies to be spread as long as they believe they can profit by it.

      Basically, you continue to refute their lies and work as best as you can to realistic solutions and prosecute the charlatans along the way.

      --
      Chaos - everything, everywhere, everywhen
    6. Re:And I would say by ikkonoishi · · Score: 1

      We are suggesting that maybe at sea isn't the best place to replace the plank on the underside of the ship that has a hole in it. Instead we should wait till we have the proper facilities to take care of it.

    7. Re:And I would say by Hognoxious · · Score: 1

      Boats have bilge pumps (how many depends on the size) to remove water from the bilge. There is no way to keep the boat 100% free of leaks, so you pump the water out when it accumulates.

      Oh yeah, that works just fine and dandy.

            E.J. Smith (capt).

      --
      Confucius say, "Find worm in apple - bad. Find half a worm - worse."
    8. Re:And I would say by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Even if 5 million people see the leak in the hull and work to patch it, the other 5 billion will keep on banging their daggers into the hull.

      Unless the governments themselves intervene and physically kill or jail environmental offenders, we won't be doing anything except maybe adding a few more years of shelf life to humanity with our dedicated 'turn the light off for an hour' energy saving policies.

    9. Re:And I would say by Scrameustache · · Score: 1

      So let me get this straight, your suggesting we ignore the leak in the hull and keep bailing?

      Of course: The Titanic is unsinkable! Just like our economy and civilization.
      Nothing to see here, move along, environmental devastation can be safely ignored...

      --

      You can't take the sky from me...

    10. Re:And I would say by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The only real solution is to rid this planet of humanity. Otherwise, deal with it.

    11. Re:And I would say by Skip666Kent · · Score: 1

      No. Ignore the 'leak in the hull' and STOP bailing. Stop wasting others people's time and money and get back to doing something useful.

      --
      **>>BELCH
    12. Re:And I would say by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      What I mean is that if we indeed are the cause of this climate shift, and if we indeed can stop it, it still isn't worth it. Why? Because it'll happen at some point anyhow. The climate has never been static. At some point, we are going to have the world get hotter, no matter what we do. So, if that is a major problem, we need to be ready to deal with it, not trying to stop this one.

      Except you're ignoring an absolutely fundamental point - rate of change. It's not so much a question of how much the temperature rises, but how fast.
      Example: Suppose with an average 2c rise, your roads all start to break up. If this happened over 200 years, it wouldn't matter, the roads would have been rebuilt repeatedly in this time to newer standards. If it happened over 20 years it would be expensive and disruptive.

      This sort of reasoning applies to infrastructure issues, flooding, plant and animal adaption etc. - all of these things will happen relatively easily and naturally if temperature increase is over a sufficiently long period; painfully and expensively if it's over a much shorter period.

    13. Re:And I would say by sesshomaru · · Score: 1

      We continue to ruthlessly exploit and pollute the planet, so the rich can get richer.

      No, so that the poor (by which I mean developing countries) can get richer. The alternative? Well, when one country wants to impose it's values on another country, how is that usually done?

      War.

      --
      "MIT betrayed all of its basic principles."
    14. Re:And I would say by ArcherB · · Score: 0

      So let me get this straight, your suggesting we ignore the leak in the hull and keep bailing?

      No. He's saying there is no point in trying to fix leaks in a boat made of old wine corks tied together. It is impossible to fix the leaks as they are part of the design (earth heats and cools naturally). Not that it matters as the boat will stay afloat no matter how many leaks it has.

      It is better to spend your energy adjusting to the changes than to waste time trying to prevent the inevitable. To keep with the boat analogy: Spend your energy moving the cargo out of the flooded areas instead of watching it get soaked while you are trying patch holes.

      --
      There is no "I disagree" mod for a reason. Flamebait, Troll, and Overrated are not substitutes.
    15. Re:And I would say by The_Quinn · · Score: 1

      Bad analogy - the Earth is not man-made.

    16. Re:And I would say by luzr · · Score: 1
      You forget to say that cooling is much more problem w.r.t. harvests.

      See, we have all kinds of crops. Many of them do just fine in tropics today. None of them can grow in arctic.

      For all we know, one thing is sure. We are in warmer period and that will end some day. There is solid evidence that we are in fact at the end of it. IF co2 really causes greenhouse effect, maybe we should consider to pump more of it into the air, just to slow down the transition to the next ice age.

      BTW, speaking about poor people in poor countries, maybe somebody should estimate how many already died because of "biofuel". I am speaking here about food prices driven up last year, where one of reasons was market's anticipation of "biofuel" related shortages.

    17. Re:And I would say by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I think it's more like ignore the leak in the hull to build another hull around it that is capable of keeping us a float despite crashing into the rocks and riffraff that breached the first hull creating the cause for concern.

      If global warming can and will happen regardless of human contributions, then going this route means global wouldn't hurt us or destroy us. So then why would we want to worry about it? Or is it more about a religion them climate change?

    18. Re:And I would say by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      No, he's saying to give up your fantasy that the loose collection of randomly-moving boards we're trying to stand on is a ship and start improving our swimming skills.

    19. Re:And I would say by AaxelB · · Score: 1

      My argument is that we instead spend the money on bilge pumps so we can survive the leak.

      Oh, I thought you were suggesting we learn to swim.

    20. Re:And I would say by Reziac · · Score: 1

      It also bothers me that even if we COULD "lock" the climate in its present state, what would we be doing, really? What if the next natural swing was an ice age, which is therefore that much deeper and colder than it would have been if we hadn't fucked with the climate in the first place?

      Doesn't strike me as a wise idea, no indeed. Better to invest in bilge pumps.

      --
      ~REZ~ #43301. Who'd fake being me anyway?
    21. Re:And I would say by Camann · · Score: 1

      Oh no! There's a difference! Thus all analogies are void! Quick! Someone come up with an analogy between the Earth and another planet, orbiting a similarly aged and sized sun of similar composition with a solar system containing 7 planets approximating the others around us, 1 dwarf planet(...), and a small blue/green planet with one notable sentient lifeform which may or may not be noticeably altering the planet's natural cycle of climate shifts! Stat!

      --
      I can't believe you don't know what a Hasemalphaginnojinglanaporphomism is.
    22. Re:And I would say by inflame · · Score: 1

      Nope. I suggest you either :

      - Start looking/calling for a new/another boat.
      - Start looking at salvageable parts of the boat and and use them to build a newer, smaller boat.
      - Get on the lifeboat and call for rescue.

      Can someone please use a car analogy for this?

    23. Re:And I would say by An+Onerous+Coward · · Score: 1

      The rough analogy of what you're proposing: "Until you can guarantee that this building will stand forever, why shouldn't I keep whacking at the foundation with a ball peen hammer?"

      Fact: The Earth has never had a static climate.

      Fact: Life can adapt nicely to gradual changes in climate.

      Fact: What we are undergoing is not gradual. In fact, from a geological and an evolutionary viewpoint, it's more like a killer asteroid than the natural warming trends of the past.

      They're estimating that if we raise the temperature by 3C over the next hundred years, we could lose a third of all the species on the planet to global warming alone. Damage like that takes tens of millions of years to recover from.

      So yes it does matter whether we're the cause of climate change.

      --

      You want the truthiness? You can't handle the truthiness!

    24. Re:And I would say by SETIGuy · · Score: 1

      Yeah, and starting the house on fire is OK, because we would need to heat it if it weren't on fire. Think of all the money we'll save!

    25. Re:And I would say by et764 · · Score: 1

      I took his suggestion as "rather than worry about the leak in the hull, notice the entire front of the boat is missing and learn how to swim." The point is, even if the current warming is man made, Earth has been much warmer before and that warming was undeniably not man-made. It's not unreasonable to believe at some point in the future it will warm up to that point again, regardless of what we do. Thus, lets use this warming period as practice for the bigger ones to come.

    26. Re:And I would say by MBGMorden · · Score: 1

      Based on what I've read in the thread so far, I personally think that SCUBA gear and snorkels are our best solution to global warming.

      --
      "People who think they know everything are very annoying to those of us who do."-Mark Twain
    27. Re:And I would say by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      So let me get this straight, your suggesting we ignore the leak in the hull and keep bailing?

      I think what the parent post is saying is that, in the context of your analogy, the leak is indeed a problem, and more power to us if we can fix it; but we should make sure that we have our lifejackets on in case we can't.

    28. Re:And I would say by rrvau · · Score: 1

      Yeah, 'cause it is the height of arrogance to think that mankind can change the course of this planet. Just accept that , like the dinosaurs, our time is coming to an end. The Earth will immunise itself against Virus Humanus.

      --
      "The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) H.L. Menc
    29. Re:And I would say by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      NO. Instead, agree that ships have sunk before, and that sometimes people have survived sinking ships. So accept the fact that our ship is sinking. Learn to swim. After all, swimming is good for your heart.

      The fact that the gaping holes in the hull were created by my heedless play with an electric drill, and that I continue to enlarge those holes that others are trying to plug is of no importance.

      Remember that every once in a while, someone survives a shipwreck. If you don't survive this wreck, hey, I told you to learn to swim.

      Leave me alone now as I've just found a larger drill bit.

    30. Re:And I would say by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I believe the suggestion is "build another boat".

      If it is natural, we are in no position to prevent it. If it is human caused, we are in no position to prevent it. Unless you see us all moving back into caves. Even then we'd light our camp fires. I guess enough of a population reduction could prevent it.

    31. Re:And I would say by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "It is better to spend your energy adjusting to the changes than to waste time trying to prevent the inevitable."

      I agree. There's no point in spending money on a brake service, when the inevitable happens you can simply adjust to the change by slamming into a tree.

    32. Re:And I would say by The_Quinn · · Score: 1

      You are right, there are other things wrong with the analogy that I should have focused on besides the man-made thing.

  48. The Article Makes a good point by Lifyre · · Score: 5, Insightful

    It mentions that a lot of the dynamics of this situation are poorly understood. Whether or not you believe in global warming or what you think is causing it we don't know what the results are going to be.

    There are so many possibilities with some scientific basis and the whole environment as a system is so complex that we can't predict details. We can paint broad strokes of the future but saying the sea level is going to raise 2.37 feet and believing that the sea will raise exactly 2.37 feet put blinders on you just like believing that a Divine Being created the universe in 6 days.

    We have an idea of what MAY happen but there is so much complexity that we don't know what WILL happen. Right now it looks like shit is going to get warmer, ice is going to melt, sea levels will get higher and who knows the Gulf Stream may stop flowing causing Europe to get cold.

    Some of you seriously need to stop beating the Global Warming Manifesto like it is a Bible.

    --
    I'll meet you at the intersection of "Should be" and "Reality"
    1. Re:The Article Makes a good point by memorycardfull · · Score: 1

      You make a good point. The climate is a chaotic complex dynamical system and one of the defining features of such systems is sensitive dependence on initial conditions, AKA The Butterfly Effect. It really is quite impossible to make accurate predictions about the future state of such systems; however, it is possible to generalize about characteristic behavior of these systems. An example is the aforementioned unpredictability. Chaotic dynamical systems can settle into a dynamic equilibrium, which is the case we have with the climate. This equilibrium can suddenly cease at any time due to sensitive dependence on conditions or if the system is perturbed in some way and the system can exhibit wildly chaotic behavior. In time the system can return to an equilibrium point but this equilibrium could be very different from the previous one. One could make a valid argument that perhaps the changes we are seeing in the climate right now are just natural variations in the dynamic equilibrium of the climate. It has been well established that the climate can and has varied widely over time. I don't think that you can use the complexity and inherent unpredictability of the climate to argue away concerns about the future though. It is this very property that should be of the greatest concern to us. Due to sensitive dependence in initial conditions it is impossible to predict at what point the state of the dynamical system of the climate might suddenly lose equilibrium, and how little or how much perturbation of conditions might trigger such a change or what change would result.

    2. Re:The Article Makes a good point by Lifyre · · Score: 1

      My issue is not with Global Warming. I fully support decreasing the effects of human activity by moving to renewable resources as much as possible for reasons both environmental and economic. My concern is that scientists are getting caught up in the Global Warming dogma and it is narrowing their search patterns. The first reaction of blame Global Warming is as dangerous as ignoring Global Warming.

      I'm of the mind that Global Warming isn't a short term issue so much as a possible catastrophic future that we should take steps towards preventing. Solar and wind power both have great potential to ease the world's reliance on oil and coal, we just need to make use of them.

      The human contribution to the overall greenhouse gas levels may be small as a percentage (I've seen debate on this) but works like compound interest on a savings account, the total only gets larger with time.

      --
      I'll meet you at the intersection of "Should be" and "Reality"
    3. Re:The Article Makes a good point by The_Quinn · · Score: 1

      What you are completely ignoring is the incredible life-enhancing and life-extending benefits that comes from altering the environment. The vast increase in quality and quantity of life that humans have over that of 150 years ago is scarcely mentioned in this ongoing debate.

    4. Re:The Article Makes a good point by locallyunscene · · Score: 1

      There are so many possibilities with some scientific basis and the whole environment as a system is so complex that we can't predict details. We can paint broad strokes of the future but saying the sea level is going to raise 2.37 feet and believing that the sea will raise exactly 2.37 feet put blinders on you just like believing that a Divine Being created the universe in 6 days.

      Some of you seriously need to stop beating the Global Warming Manifesto like it is a Bible.

      I'm probably getting trolled here, but talk about a specious comparison. 2.37 feet(if I'm assuming correctly you pulled it from the article and didn't just make it up) would be a scientific guess or hypothesis. It's based on what we know about the world(rough volume of ice, salt content of seawater, rough volume of oceans, absorption of CO2, etc).

      There is no believing required or welcomed. If you think you have a more accurate hypothesis show us what calculations you used to get there and explain why these are better models. I don't see anyone "beating the Global Warming Manifesto", especially since no such thing exists.

      Think, don't believe. You don't have to agree, but throwing up your hands and saying "it's too complex for us to understand" is the antithesis of science. You can't learn anything that way.

    5. Re:The Article Makes a good point by memorycardfull · · Score: 1

      This sounds reasonable, but I am not clear on what you specifically mean when you say "Global Warming dogma" and "narrowing their search patterns". You make it sound as if scientists are all of one narrow mind which is clearly not the case. It seems to me that this possible catastrophic future is indeed a short term issue, if by that you means something that requires immediate action to prevent. The amount of human contribution to greenhouse gases may be arguably relatively small or debatable by some but that does not minimize in any way the danger they represent as a relatively novel perturbation on the dynamic equilibrium of the climate. Also I think that it is a completely false analogy to say that greenhouse gases work like compound interest on a savings account, or to say that the total of such gases can only increase over time. A better financial analogy would be to compare world's climate to the world's economy. Economies are complex dynamical systems as well and our recent woes are an illustrative model for how suddenly equilibrium in such systems can explode into catastrophe.

    6. Re:The Article Makes a good point by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      So, you recognize that things are getting warmer, and you caution that because we don't know the precise effects it's going to have X years down the line, then we need not take any action today. Many people here are making the claim that this has happened cyclically throughout Earth's history, and that this is purely natural. It is sounding like the global warming opponents have gone beyond Denial and Anger stages and are starting the Bargaining stage. Congratulations, you only have one more stage to go before Acceptance.

      The fact is that you can never know precisely what is going to happen tomorrow, you can only spot trends and extrapolate various possible results. But the fact also is that in the other few global temperature spikes, the human race had never achieved the level of specialize agricultural and energy needs and interdependency that we require today. Drought, heat waves, the shutting down of the Gulf Stream and the resultant possible mini ice ages in Europe and cooling in other parts of the world will play havoc with the finely tuned sustainability requirements we've placed on different regions of the globe.

      What happens when areas of the globe that use to be the cornucopia of agricultural produce become near wastelands and the best climate for farming becomes what use to be tropical rain forests, or the African Savannah? Do you think those regions of the globe will suddenly become hospitable to outside interests? Their countries' politics or the pace of transformation won't interfere with being able to feed the world's starving masses in a timely fashion? Will the agricultural industry be able to pack up and move wherever is needed to keep the machines of produce alive without repercussion? What will happen when the energy needs in Europe spike in order to keep Meme and Pepe from freezing in the night? Do they have the infrastructure, the insulation, the heat sources, the money to make this all go smoothly?

      Jesus people. Time's a wasting.

    7. Re:The Article Makes a good point by Lifyre · · Score: 1

      I'll give you a direct example from my past. There was a pond on the college campus that has experienced an increase in the amount of green algae. The biology department did some work and determined that the water was warmer and concluded it was caused by global warming. My chem prof (who didn't much like the bio prof, hence his motive) asked the grounds crew a couple questions about fertilizers and did a couple tests of the water. When they changed fertilizer the algae died off.

      It's anecdotal and hardly proof but it is an example of what I'm talking about. Scientists losing their perspective when tackling an issue start making decisions based upon faith and not facts.

      What I was saying was more in reference to some people claiming that the human contribution so small that it didn't matter. My point was that each yearly amount may not have much effect but the gas builds up in the atmosphere causing a greater cumulative effect, and yes it was probably a bad analogy.

      --
      I'll meet you at the intersection of "Should be" and "Reality"
    8. Re:The Article Makes a good point by Lifyre · · Score: 1

      2.37 was completely made up... It was supposed to be a random example that was too close to the real numbers they were talking about.

      --
      I'll meet you at the intersection of "Should be" and "Reality"
    9. Re:The Article Makes a good point by Lifyre · · Score: 1

      I'm a strong believer in human caused global warming, I think it's likely a bad thing, and I think we can and should be taking steps to rectify the situation. None of that changes my point of view that people are blaming too much shit on global warming (and the ice is probably correctly being blamed too if you like a little irony)

      I tend to be financially conservative but I think that a large government investment in off shore wind (or other tech) that significantly reduces our dependence on oil, coal, and paves the way for an alternative vehicle fuel would be money very well spent.

      --
      I'll meet you at the intersection of "Should be" and "Reality"
    10. Re:The Article Makes a good point by memorycardfull · · Score: 1

      Your anecdote is not proof at all and very difficult to believe. I would also offer that arguing your point with vague anecdotes and statements qualified with "some people claim" undermines your argument against tackling this issue with faith rather than facts. You offer no facts and expect me to have faith in your assertions about the statements and actions of unnamed others. I suspect I am being trolled.

    11. Re:The Article Makes a good point by cdrguru · · Score: 1

      There are two ways to "solve" any possible global warming problem.

      1. Decrease energy usage, drastically.
      2. Decrease the number of humans on the planet, drastically

      Choose one. All other "solutions" aren't.

    12. Re:The Article Makes a good point by hey! · · Score: 1

      Well, I've been following this since issue well before it was a political one - since around 1983 or so. Let me tell you, there were years and years of serious debate and back and forth on this issue before it got any mention in the popular press.

      You need to back up your statement "My concern is that scientists are getting caught up in the Global Warming dogma and it is narrowing their search patterns." It seems to me that you think the discussion is one sided because you've come late to the party. You can't expect everyone to backup and have that same old conversation over again. That's why your library keeps old journals around.

      --
      Post may contain irony: discontinue use if experiencing mood swings, nausea or elevated blood pressure.
    13. Re:The Article Makes a good point by TheDugong · · Score: 1

      "...
      What happens when areas of the globe that use to be the cornucopia of agricultural produce become near wastelands and the best climate for farming becomes what use to be tropical rain forests, or the African Savannah? Do you think those regions of the globe will suddenly become hospitable to outside interests?
      ...
      Jesus people. Time's a wasting."

      Quick! Chop the rainforest down and prepare it for agricultural use! Time's a wasting and we MIGHT need it later!

    14. Re:The Article Makes a good point by Lifyre · · Score: 1

      I would say that I've come late to the party (I wasn't old enough to hold an intelligent conversation with myself much less anyone else in '83) so I'd say our assessment is fair. I have no problem having an incorrect view of things, it's the best thing about this site since the people here have not problem correcting me and at least a large portion of them are more learned in the subjects I'm interested in.

      --
      I'll meet you at the intersection of "Should be" and "Reality"
  49. Re:Not that it matters ... by linuxrocks123 · · Score: 5, Informative

    You laugh, but...

    http://www.physorg.com/news5619.html

    ---linuxrocks123

    --
    vi ~/.emacs # I'm probably going to Hell for this.
  50. Tabacoo science. by TapeCutter · · Score: 4, Informative

    Con job and spin are the correct terms for that particular web site.

    This is the second time this site has popped up in the last few days. It's run by one J. D'Aleo who is paid to do so by the "Science and Public Policy Institute", they are in turn backed by "Frontiers of Freedom" which is the lobbying brain child of this guy. They have a donate button on their site but their funding is otherwise obscured.

    Older readers may recall the "Frontiers of Freedom" also backed the tabacoo industry in their anti-science campaign.

    Disclaimer: I don't have anything against lobbyists or politicians until they pretend to be something they are not.

    --
    And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage? - Pink Floyd.
    1. Re:Tabacoo science. by TapeCutter · · Score: 1

      "It was making me wonder, how much spare time to you really have?"

      I'm an old fart, I don't feel the need to try and impress people with how busy I am.

      I don't edit WP but let's go with your little rant and assume I only come to slashdot to make posts on AGW and was not drawn here because of my computer science background.

      Roughly 5,000 posts at (say) 5min per post is about 10x40hr weeks but don't worry I don't feel any shame for informing myself and speaking my mind over the last decade. The best reward has been my own edification but looking back at the change in slashdotter attitudes to the issue over that time I don't think my independent and intellectually honest efforts to pusuade others to look at the science have been a total waste.

      OTOH I do agree it's a waste of time answering common trolls but sometimes (me:wipes mouth) I get all foamy when I sense fear in an anti-science astroturfer.

      --
      And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage? - Pink Floyd.
    2. Re:Tabacoo science. by ArcherB · · Score: 1, Troll

      Again. Please don't attack the source just because you don't like their data. Until you can come up with numbers counter to icecap's and can explain why ice cap's numbers are bad, STFU.

      Here, let me show you. You are about to post a bunch of articles containing NASA data. Before you start linking to NASA data, please read the following SlashDot submission. See, I just showed how the NASA data you were about to post is not accurate and provided a link explaining why. Until you can do that with IceCap's data, SHUT UP OR PUT UP, but leave the ad hominem fallacies behind.

      --
      There is no "I disagree" mod for a reason. Flamebait, Troll, and Overrated are not substitutes.
    3. Re:Tabacoo science. by TapeCutter · · Score: 1

      In your last post to me you started by claiming "Academia is a liberal bastion of socialist thought by people who couldn't get a job doing what they teach", now you want to appeal to acedemia again. I have already pointed you to 50 peer-reviewed papers from Nature and Science alone that use the GRACE data to show Antarctica and Greenland are losing mass and contributing to the observed sea level rise. Those 50 papers are just a small (but credible) portion of the evidence that exists to debunk what seems to be your favorite website's claims about the ice caps.

      As for the Icecap site, they don't actually have any data, what they do is cherry pick data from other ACADEMICS work which they the contort into nonsense conclusions. I have no intention of playing your bullshit political games anymore so please stop following me around like a yapping poodle, it's creeping me out.

      --
      And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage? - Pink Floyd.
    4. Re:Tabacoo science. by bartwol · · Score: 1

      He (or she or it) is a sight to behold.

      However informed and correct he may be, his voice is steeped in a stinging malevolence that overwhelms common regard for sensibility.

      The funny aspect of it is that his attempts to inform are just him meeting the irksome minimal requirement of argument, when in fact, he has little patience or inclination for argument at all (or for the resulting education that may ensue there). Argument is the price he pays to leak venom. But venom, from his own mouth back to his own ears, is his reward.

      His is an almost elegant, virtuous cycle.

      For him.

      I, like you, found myself paused by it. :)

    5. Re:Tabacoo science. by TapeCutter · · Score: 1

      Hello....again. You have one thing right, I'm too old to have the inclination or patience to argue with dogmatic fools.

      --
      And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage? - Pink Floyd.
  51. 22 feet below, actually by berend+botje · · Score: 3, Informative

    Lowest point in the Netherlands is 6.76m (just over 22 feet) below sea-level, near Nieuwerkerk-aan-de-IJssel.

    1. Re:22 feet below, actually by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Well varghan will just have to go to Nieuwerkerk-aan-de-IJssel and dig a 26 foot deep hole to prove his point then.

    2. Re:22 feet below, actually by berend+botje · · Score: 1

      He'd better bring a really good sump pump. The soil is very moist and there is an infinite amount of ground water.

      Please tell me when he goes digging! I'll carry my deck chair and BBQ over and will upload the epic fail video on YouTube!

    3. Re:22 feet below, actually by shermo · · Score: 1

      He's talking about once sea level has risen by 26 feet of course.

      --
      Insanity: voting in the same two parties over and over again and expecting different results
  52. Re:Not that it matters ... by berend+botje · · Score: 1

    An iceberg displaces its weight in water (as all floating bodies do). That means that thawing of it won't change the water level at all.

    Except when it has a truly odd shape: Think of a sinking ship. When it floats it displaces its weight in water. When it is sunk, then it displaces its volume in water. For a ship the volume is much less than its weight. Sinking a ship will actually lower the water level.

    Iceberg don't (generally) have a lot of significant cavities, so the water level won't change much.

  53. I wonder... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Has anyone ever considered what would happen to marine life if the icecaps were to melt?

    I mean, not only the sea levels will be rising, but the ocean will desalinate which might, or might not, inversely affect things like plankton, which might further disrupt the atmosphere by reducing oxigen release, not to mention the impact on the food chain (this includes us btw)

  54. And what caused the earthquakes? by Kupfernigk · · Score: 1

    Do a bit of looking around and you will find more and more geologists are associating some earthquakes with climatic effects - such as weathering of the Himalayas. Did the earthquakes cause the breakup or are they simply associated? (correlation!=causation).

    --
    From scarped cliff or quarried stone she cries "A thousand types are gone, I care for nothing, no not one."
    1. Re:And what caused the earthquakes? by Rockoon · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Do you seriously think that earthquakes wouldnt cause of cracks in ice?

      As far as weathering effects in the Antarctic, precipation averages about 16.5cm annual, making it the largest desert in the world.

      The surface area of Antarctica is 14,200,000/km^2, so even though it is a desert, the amount of ice which would accumulate if there were no loss is staggering. This particular loss isn't very significant, but makes for a great story due to its surface area being equatable to something (ex: The state of RI) which is considered "large."

      What is important is the volume of ice lost by this event, not the area of ice lost. All of these news agencies have latched onto the area of ice lost, not its volume, and that is in part due to the scientists themselves wrapping this up as dramatic.

      --
      "His name was James Damore."
  55. Re:Not that it matters ... by Lifyre · · Score: 1

    Wait you mean it's not like filling a bath tub?

    --
    I'll meet you at the intersection of "Should be" and "Reality"
  56. Re:Not that it matters ... by digitalchinky · · Score: 0

    Every last one of us is going to die (at least everyone alive this second), some of us might help ourselves to opt out of this whole life deal a little bit early, some not. Sure it sucks that we have to foot the bill (as taxpayers) for the heart attacks those idiots get for sucking down 3 pounds of oily beef every day, but really, in 200 years we will be that black and white turn of the century photo you look at and think "They are all dead now... Pretty ugly fashion sense too."

    Nobody will really care that much, so does it really matter?

  57. Re:Not that it matters ... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Unlike the coming floods, of which we'll have no warning because there aren't bazillions of climate scientists and doomsayers watching the earth's climate like a hawk for evidence of the sea levels rising.

  58. Re:Not that it matters ... by MichaelSmith · · Score: 1

    A lot of airports around the world are on coastal plains, because the land there is flat and cheap.

  59. Re:Not that it matters ... by MichaelSmith · · Score: 1

    Ice is white and reflects a lot of heat back into space. If this ice melts it may cause ice elsewhere to melt faster.

  60. Re:Not that it matters ... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Is there enough money left for that after the stimulus package? I can't see there being enough here in the UK, although the jobs would be a good thing

  61. Re:Not that it matters ... by Takichi · · Score: 1

    I wonder if it would be possible to build floating ports, with a similar floating bridge to the mainland. I'm guessing it would be much more expensive, but definitely adaptable to changing sea levels.

  62. Re:Not that it matters ... by balloonhead · · Score: 1

    Dude, you've come up with the solution! All we need to do is build loads of ships, then sink them. It will spur economic recovery (shipbuilding) and reverse the rising seas (global warming). You're a genius! It's foolproof!

    --
    This idea was invented by Shampoo.
  63. Sequel time by viper34j · · Score: 1

    Perfect back story for a Cool Runnings 2...?

  64. Re:Not that it matters ... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Informative

    If an ice cube floating in a glass of water melts, the water will still be at the same level afterwards.

    If a floating iceberg melts, it will add water to the oceans, causing the average water level to be the same.

    However, there is still more water in motion, so the effect of the tide will probably be larger.

    (Also, I was under the impression that the Antarctic ice wasn't floating? Or maybe this section was?)

  65. And then.... by Capt+James+McCarthy · · Score: 0, Troll

    More ice has melted.
    And then...
    More ice has melted.
    And then...

    I think everyone gets it by now. The ice at the poles is melting and there is little anyone can do about it. The Earth's climate changes from time to time. It has changed abruptly in the past (ice cores) and will do so in the future. "Man's" responsibility is and will be debatable. If your climate is riding a razors edge and man pushes the Earth into a warming or cooling cycle is it really man's fault? Man sure does like blaming him/herself for global cycles. I guess because we are _so_ important in the Universe. If Man has thrown the Global Climate cycle out of wack, Earth's history has proven that it will self correct. Now can Man be flexible enough to survive it? That is the better question.

    --
    There are no loopholes. It's either legal or it's not.
    1. Re:And then.... by Burnhard · · Score: 1

      According to the RealClimate website, increasing ice is expected in the Antarctic according to the models, so all of these cretinous articles about "warming" causing the ice to melt are not in agreement with the alarmists. Or rather I should say the alarmists aren't in agreement with themselves.

    2. Re:And then.... by mdwh2 · · Score: 1

      Er, I don't think the issue is about assigning "fault" or "blame", because it means we get a bad mark or something. It's about how messed up we're going to be due to climate change, and what if anything we can do about it.

      Now can Man be flexible enough to survive it? That is the better question.

      Which is, indeed, the question people are asking.

    3. Re:And then.... by An+Onerous+Coward · · Score: 1

      The increase in ice is expected over most of the continental shelf. The stuff near the coasts is fair game. Also, I believe the increased ice is expected to be temporary.

      --

      You want the truthiness? You can't handle the truthiness!

  66. Re:Not that it matters ... by McSnarf · · Score: 1

    Nice one :)

  67. Re:Not that it matters ... by Hognoxious · · Score: 3, Interesting

    I wonder if it would be possible to build floating ports

    Already done

    --
    Confucius say, "Find worm in apple - bad. Find half a worm - worse."
  68. Re:Not that it matters ... by jafiwam · · Score: 1

    Relax dude, it's just Gilligan moving the stick out further to catch more crabs.

  69. Re:Not that it matters ... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    When it is sunk, then it displaces its volume in water. For a ship the volume is much less than its weight.

    How to make it sink while it still has positive buoyancy is left as an exercise for the reader.

  70. Re:Not that it matters ... by Gandalf_Greyhame · · Score: 2, Informative

    and the seas will rise faster than the planning permission beuracracy can work its magic?

    It isn't called a bureaucracy for nothing.

    Just wait until we form a committee to look into the possibility of considering a tendering process for the production of the guidelines for selecting a committee to look into the possibility of constructing a sea port.

    Hell, this could take CENTURIES!

    --
    I am not stubborn. I am right!
  71. Bad choice of words? by GravityStar · · Score: 1

    Finally! Thank god we got rid of that damn bridge!

  72. C'mon Mods.... by JakartaDean · · Score: 1

    This is it the season that it recedes. Its winter down there...

    Wow! April is winter in Antartica? And you got modded informative???

    Slashdot moderators seem particularly, well, stupid on this topic today...

    P.S. You're right about your ice receding, but that's not because it's getting colder

    --
    The subject who is truly loyal to the Chief Magistrate will neither advise nor submit to arbitrary measures (Junius)
    1. Re:C'mon Mods.... by TapeCutter · · Score: 3, Informative

      Ice extent starts to grow/recede around the time of the equinox. March is always the low point for sea ice in the south, September is always the low point in the north. The high points are also marked by the equinox so that September is the high point in the south, March in the north.

      --
      And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage? - Pink Floyd.
  73. Re:Not that it matters ... by Sabriel · · Score: 2, Interesting

    What I want to know is the worst-case scenario. Say ALL of the world's ice melts. How high does the sea level rise? Has anyone done the definitive study? Links?

  74. Re:Not that it matters ... by apoc.famine · · Score: 1

    This is important because the sea level change will happen in a matter of days, right?

    --
    Velociraptor = Distiraptor / Timeraptor
  75. Ye Gods Moderators! by JakartaDean · · Score: 0
    Lemme get this straight. Someone posts something as stupid, as ignorant, as unscientific and as unsupported as a one-sentence refuting the basic, generally accepted impact of ice melting, and this:

    Yes, because we have lost the technology to build ports...

    gets modded: (Score:5, Insightful)?

    Where's the insight? He didn't parse a logical argument; he didn't even attempt to engage in reasonable discourse. He didn't address the many reasons already posted why building ports is a poor solution to the problem he waves away. I would think his post is flamebait at best, and he's Insightful ?

    I hope you lose your grasp of science, reason and consequences the same way the parent poster did.

    --
    The subject who is truly loyal to the Chief Magistrate will neither advise nor submit to arbitrary measures (Junius)
    1. Re:Ye Gods Moderators! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Informative

      He was responding to a post that logically explored the consequences of a 10 to 20 foot increase in the sea level, if it happened immediately and we did nothing about it.

      Sarcasm was appropriate.

    2. Re:Ye Gods Moderators! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The Insightful mod is because we don't accept the strawman supposition that sea levels will rise at a rate that can't be worked around. The GGP assumes the most extreme supositions of worst case scenarios and concludes that we are all doomed. While the GP is ignoring the hand waving hysteria and stating that mankind will rebuild what is destroyed.

      But you're right, there's nothing scientific to see here, please move along.

  76. Re:Not that it matters ... by Daimanta · · Score: 1

    Aren't these case disjunct because the ice-shelf is well... a shelf and not a cube. Doesn't that influence the change?

    --
    Knowledge is power. Knowledge shared is power lost.
  77. Re:Not that it matters ... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    But you are obviously unable to buy yourself the one thing that matters: a sense of humor.

  78. Re:Not that it matters ... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0
  79. Re:Not that it matters ... by molarmass192 · · Score: 2, Interesting

    If all the ice in the world were to melt, and the odds of this happening are virtually 0, then we're looking at a 200+ft rise in ocean levels. However, the higher probability estimates are for a 24 inch rise by 2100. Not a great source in itself but the references are not bad: http://science.howstuffworks.com/question473.htm

    --

    Good people do not need laws to tell them to act responsibly, while bad people will find a way around the laws-Plato
  80. some one must of used the Antarctic stargate or th by Joe+The+Dragon · · Score: 1

    some one must of used the Antarctic stargate or the weapons platform there.

  81. It's gotta go somewhere. by reidiq · · Score: 1

    I'm pretty positive that the reason this ice shelf broke off is that there is an over-abundance of ice and with all that new ice forming, some of it has to go somewhere. Here, do the numbers yourself : http://nsidc.org/cgi-bin/bist/bist.pl?no_panel=1&annot=1&legend=1&scale=75&tab_cols=2&tab_rows=2&config=seaice_index&submit=Refresh&mo0=01&hemis0=S&img0=extn&mo1=01&hemis1=S&img1=conc&year0=2009&year1=1980&.cgifields=no_panel

    --
    Sig? No thanks. I don't smoke.
  82. Titanic 2: This time it's personal! by agnosticanarch · · Score: 2, Funny

    ICEBERG!!!!

    --
    I contend that we are both atheists. I just believe in one fewer god than you do.
  83. Re:Not that it matters ... by bdbolton · · Score: 1

    If an ice cube floating in a glass of water melts, the water will still be at the same level afterwards.

    If a floating iceberg melts, it will add water to the oceans, causing the average water level to be the same.

    However, there is still more water in motion, so the effect of the tide will probably be larger.

    (Also, I was under the impression that the Antarctic ice wasn't floating? Or maybe this section was?)

    I read recently (i think it was on the naked scientist) that these large masses of ice have a small gravitational field. They pull water close to them. When the ice bergs break up, they lose mass and gravity. The article was suggesting that water levels will rise because the water that was pulled by the icebergs will now be in the ocean.

  84. Why it broke up? Doh! by Oriental_Hero · · Score: 1

    ...in January we landed on it in a helicoptor and stuck a GPS unit into it.

    I guess the GPS unit was hammered into the ice :)

    --
    Oriental Hero "I want to live in a city where the Police don't shoot you" Jean Charles de Menezes
  85. Question for an Actual Climate Scientist by geoffrobinson · · Score: 1

    Could you provide us with falsifiable predictions that global warming theorists have made?

    Specifically, predictions which are measurable, have come true, are based on the underlying science, and aren't intuitive.

    Something like "given x amount of C02 and y amount of sun activity the global mean temp will be z over this period of time."

    I honestly haven't seen that. Until I do, I will continue to remain skeptical about the underlying science. There are way too many variables involved for me to have confidence that the scientific community has reached a definitive and correct answer.

    --
    Except for ending slavery, the Nazis, communism, & securing American independence, war has never solved anything.
    1. Re:Question for an Actual Climate Scientist by khayman80 · · Score: 1

      Could you provide us with falsifiable predictions that global warming theorists have made?

      The most convincing prediction I'm aware of is that the current atmospheric trends cannot be explained by natural forcing alone. See Meehl 2004.

      And we generally prefer the term "scientists."

  86. Not attached anymore? by chord.wav · · Score: 1

    So that means I (or anyone who gets there first) can go there and claim it's the National Republic of Icelanadonia and host porn and copyrighted material?

  87. Re:Not that it matters ... by Timberwolf0122 · · Score: 1, Insightful

    That's a bad analogy. A clear link between obesity, poor diet and high blood pressure have been shown; the same can not be said for Man made CO2 and global warming.

    --
    In the not too distant future, next Sunday A.D.
  88. Re:Not that it matters ... by CarpetShark · · Score: 1

    and feel ok about it.

    Keep telling yourself that.

  89. He owes us a bridge by wprager · · Score: 0

    So this guy lands an aircraft on the ice bridge back in January, and three months later -- Bang! The bridge collapses. I think he owes us a bridge.

  90. Re:Not that it matters ... by JWSmythe · · Score: 3, Informative

        No (obviously), but it would depend on how fast the water rises.

        Besides just the pesky problem of the port, there's the infrastructure that goes with it.

        For just one example, at 10', Manhattan would start looking like Venice. Tunnels, railways, and 3 major airports would become useless. There's a lot of infrastructure to rebuild elsewhere.

        If you look around, a lot of airports and power plants are situated very close to sea level, on the waterfront. Airports use this for noise abatement (the planes can take off over the water to keep from annoying people). Nuclear plants require lots of sea water for cooling.

        So, ports, sure they could be rebuilt. But have you ever watched what happens around the planning of new facilities? Years upon years of arguing points. People would argue about the environmental impact of the new facility, and the remains of the old facility.

        I don't know what the thresholds are, but I'm sure once you reach a critical point (say 10'), more cities will have problems quicker. Say between 10' and 15', there could be not only one or two, but dozens of major coastal cities that would need to be rebuilt simultaneously.

        Don't forget about fresh water reserves too. Water wells would start becoming contaminated with sea water too. You could rebuild the city near by, but can you restore their essential supplies like drinking water?

    --
    Serious? Seriousness is well above my pay grade.
  91. Re:Not that it matters ... by d3ac0n · · Score: 0, Troll

    Nope.

    Ice always displaces it's volume in water. Period. The shape of the ice isn't relevant. Indeed; the largest, heaviest, "most likely to displace water" portions of an irregular ice shape will always be under water, displacing water.

    Little known fact: As an iceberg melts it rolls over and over, constantly putting the heaviest largest section under water. Once that section melts enough (being exposed to the melting effects of salt water) the berg rolls over, and the top becomes the bottom and vice-versa.

    --
    Official Heretic from the "Church of Global Warming". Proven right thanks to whistle blowers. AGW = Flat Earth Theory
  92. Re:Not that it matters ... by capnkr · · Score: 1

    Here's a mash-up site that purports to show the effects of global sea level rising in increments of 1 meter, up to +14m. I make no claim as to the accuracy of the info it presents, I just happened to find it a while back while researching hurricane storm surge.

    http://flood.firetree.net/

    Personally, none of this worries me in the least - I live on a boat. :D Maybe that's something more people, especially global warming fanatics, should consider.

    Wait, then they would be my neighbors. Ugh, scratch that. I can't stand fanatics. Except for the hot-nyphomaniac-in-a-bikini sort of fanatic. Those, I don't mind... ;)

    --
    "...there are some things that can beat smartness and foresight. Awkwardness and stupidity can." ~ Mark Twain
  93. Re:Not that it matters ... well, maybe... by Cragen · · Score: 1

    I was with you right up to the "...so does it really matter?" There is the crux of the matter, I guess. Does it matter? I am thinking "yes", obviously, not only for what may or may not happen to me after I die (a debatable subject, obviously, to some) but for what my life's effects are to other folks's lives. Positive, hopefully, for a similar reason, actually. Btw, in Southeast Asia in some Buddhist temples, some monks keep pictures of de-composing dead people to help them not get too attached (or to be become less attached, at least) to this life. Web sites, too. Interesting stuff. I could not find a link to any of the pictures, but, a bit ironically, instead discovered a paper on the medieval Japanese art form of painting the "9 stages" of decomposing bodies. (New to me, too. I think I'll go read it now. Later.)

  94. None like it hot? by attemptedgoalie · · Score: 1

    :-)

    --
    My mom says I'm cool.
  95. Re:Not that it matters ... well, maybe... by Cragen · · Score: 1

    Sorry, meant to add the link to the post above. Medieval Japanese Art of Decomposing Bodies Paintings. A morbid read, indeed.

  96. Re:Not that it matters ... by Ceiynt · · Score: 1

    Well, most gas usage experts show that driving ~65 MPH is the sweet spot for optimal MPG. It's much better then 80 MPH, or 20 MPH in stop and go traffic.

  97. Re:Not that it matters ... by Molochi · · Score: 1

    If part a glacier gently calves off and just floats away, then it doesn't affect seawater volume. It is the equivalent of an icecube floating in a glass.

      If it crashes into the ocean because it was being held mostly out of the water by the structure of the glacier it was attached to, it does add to the volume of the ocean. It is the analog dropping of an icecube into a glass of water.

    In either case, it was evidenced in Greenland that the runoff of meltwater from inland glaciers is also finding it's way to the sea, accelerating glacier loss on the coast, and adding their own volume to the mix.

    The inference is that little changes in climate may produce big changes in environment in a short period of time. My takeaway is that this may be a bad century to invest in beachfront property and that dike and canal building companies could become a serious growth industry.

    --
    "The Adobe Updater must update itself before it can check for updates. Would you like to update the Adobe Updater now?"
  98. Re:Not that it matters ... by Sleepy · · Score: 1

    >Now, I'm gunna drive my SUV 65 miles to work tomorrow and feel ok about it.

    This is the ugly side of fighting a war using an all-volunteer force... ... there will always be people flaunting waste instead. Or flaunting that they're above it all.

    Conserving resources for the war effort is patriotic, although you'd have to read a history book to see wealthy people doing just that.

  99. Re:Not that it matters ... by Kz · · Score: 1

    i really can't believe how wrong you are

    --
    -Kz-
  100. Re:Not that it matters ... by waveformwafflehouse · · Score: 1

    Also from TFA: "Separate research shows that when ice shelves are removed, the glaciers and landed ice behind them start to move towards the ocean more rapidly. It is this ice which can raise sea levels, but by how much is a matter of ongoing scientific debate."

    There's also eustatic sea level rise due to the thermal expansion of sea water (less ice = warmer water)

  101. Re:Not that it matters ... by chaim79 · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Ice has a lower density than water, wouldn't that mean that it has less gravity then the water around it?

    --
    DEMETRIUS: Villain, what hast thou done?
    AARON: Villain, I have done thy mother.
    Shakespeare invents 'your mom'
  102. Re:Not that it matters ... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Or is it?

  103. Re:Not that it matters ... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    The local mean sea level (LMSL) won't be the same for everybody, though, due to the Isostatic effects of ice-sheets. Basically where there are large amounts of ice that ice weighs down the Earth's surface. When the ice melts the surface gradually rises to equilibrium.

  104. Re:Not that it matters ... by The_Quinn · · Score: 1

    Has there ever been less ice than there is today?

  105. Re:Not that it matters ... by Acer500 · · Score: 1

    I wonder if it would be possible to build floating ports

    Already done

    You beat me to it.. I was going to mention WWII as a counterexample.

    From Wikipedia:

    Deployment

    By June 9, just 3 days after D-Day, two harbours codenamed Mulberry 'A' and 'B' were constructed at Omaha Beach and Arromanches, respectively.

    So yes, you could set up a port in 3 days (if you know beforehand about it)

    --
    There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.
  106. Re:Not that it matters ... by sricetx · · Score: 1

    Don't forget about fresh water reserves too. Water wells would start becoming contaminated with sea water too. You could rebuild the city near by, but can you restore their essential supplies like drinking water?

    You could always build a desalination plant. I don't think that most cities get their water from wells, either. In my experience, at least in the Western USA, metropolitan water supplies come from large sources of groundwater, such as a reservoir.

  107. What about Wilkins? by Clockwinder · · Score: 0

    What about the poor chap Wilkins, never name something that floats away and melts after yourself.

  108. This is a NATURAL phenomenon by EskimoJoe · · Score: 1

    Oh no! Another iceberg source! *YAWN*

    --
    Get your Kicks on Route 66
  109. Re:Not that it matters ... by cathector · · Score: 1

    an excellent point.
    however i wonder if the difference in density due to salinity between iceberg ice and ocean water is the same as that between freshwater ice and the "concentrated saltwater" shown in the experiment.

    also, glacier ice often contains small pockets of compressed air, which is why it fizzes and pops when put in a glass of water, and this may also affect its density.

  110. Re:Not that it matters ... by marcosdumay · · Score: 1

    Have you alrady decided on a methodology for considering the tendering process? I guess you are jumping some stages here, be carefull, so your project don't off-track later because of it.

    Too bad I don't have mod-points today.

  111. Re:Not that it matters ... by marcosdumay · · Score: 1

    Thanks to Google:

    100 feet = 30.48 meters

    24 inches = 0.6096 meters

  112. Re:Not that it matters ... by hjrnunes · · Score: 1

    Didn't New Orleans had a port?

  113. Tempered in Reality by BigJClark · · Score: 1


    Meanwhile temperatures still are subzero in Edmonton, Alberta, and there is still a foot of snow on the ground. I believe this whole 'global climate change' when I take my parka off.

    Are you listening Mr Suzuki?

    --

    Hi, I Boris. Hear fix bear, yes?
    1. Re:Tempered in Reality by Reziac · · Score: 1

      And we had not one but TWO record lows here in the SoCal desert over the past week. There's still "global warming" all over the local mountains. And this winter we had significant snow down on the flats for the first time in over 20 years.

      Local short-term blips, you say? Well, that's the point. The GW theorists are looking at blips, when the climate megacycles are tens of thousands of years long. I'm far more afraid of GW proponents "doing something about it" and fucking things up beyond repair, than I am of GW itself, even if it proves true (which is still debateable).

      --
      ~REZ~ #43301. Who'd fake being me anyway?
  114. Re:Not that it matters ... by JWSmythe · · Score: 1

        That really depends on where you are, and what is available.

        I found This Reference at the USGS. Los Angeles uses groundwater (river), and I know they have reservoirs, but they also use groundwater to supplement the groundwater.

        If you happen to be sitting on a nice mountain, with a good sized lake, fed by snow melt, and the snow level remain enough to keep the lake fed, then you'd be doing very well.

    --
    Serious? Seriousness is well above my pay grade.
  115. Melting Antarctic Ice Part of Natural Cycle by WayGoneDoug · · Score: 2, Informative

    Historical records for the western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) show that it is particularly prone to rapid climate change--change that occurs in cycles of ~200 years and ~2500 years. By studying major transitions in plankton productivity in the western Antarctic, scientists have shown that "spectacular" ice-cover losses have happened many times in the past. In other words, the "unprecedented rapid loss of ice" from parts of Antarctica that global warming alarmists make so much of are a normal part of nature's cycles. What else would you expect during the peak of an interglacial warming period? This is from a paper titled "Recent Changes in Phytoplankton Communities Associated with Rapid Regional Climate Change Along the Western Antarctic Peninsula," by Martin Montes-Hugo, et al, in Science. For more see http://theresilientearth.com/?q=content/melting-antarctic-ice-part-natural-cycle

    1. Re:Melting Antarctic Ice Part of Natural Cycle by kindbud · · Score: 1

      Hoffman and Simmons are computer engineers, not climate scientists.

      --
      Edith Keeler Must Die
    2. Re:Melting Antarctic Ice Part of Natural Cycle by WayGoneDoug · · Score: 1

      Hoffman is a PhD computer scientist with a lot of interdisciplinary work and modeling experience (all of the IPCC climate predictions are from computer models, not hard science). Simmons worked on satellite remote sensing of CO2, quite applicable to the field. Besides, "climate science" covers a wide range of disciplines: atmospheric physics, geology, oceanography, biology, etc. If you know anything about science you would know that people often change fields and work across field lines. A PhD says you know how to do science, it doesn't limit the type of science you can do. If you do your homework you can contribute to any field.

    3. Re:Melting Antarctic Ice Part of Natural Cycle by kindbud · · Score: 1

      OK, Hoffman and Simmons are GW deniers. Happy now?

      If there's a single article on their site that supports AGW, I'll retract that claim. But looking around and seeing the sort of book they are selling, I really doubt they present an even-handed case. Their man gig is putting out red meat for the no-it-ain't crowd.

      --
      Edith Keeler Must Die
  116. Re:Not that it matters ... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Some are even built on what was once covered in water. Till they threw enough rocks into build on. Not that they could have done it without help from space aliens.

  117. Re:Not that it matters ... by Lemmy+Caution · · Score: 1

    They have both been "shown" to the satisfaction of general scientific consensus, and both have their de jure and de facto deniers and skeptics.

  118. Re:Not that it matters ... by interstellar_donkey · · Score: 1

    Enjoy your riches after your beach front properties are destroyed after rising ocean levels and extreme weather caused by global warming, and the insurance companies all go bust.

    Have fun.

    --
    The Internet is generally stupid
  119. Re:Not that it matters ... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Actually, while we never got real flying cars, the surplus of helium produced by fusion powerplants caused a rise (NPI) in Airship transportation. Now we have solar powered, flying, vehicles that do 400KPH for "pennies" a day.

  120. Re:Not that it matters ... by interstellar_donkey · · Score: 1

    Don't forget the committee to redefine policies for environmental impact studies due to a modified ecological state. And of course, the committee formed to determine if such a committee would be necessary.

    --
    The Internet is generally stupid
  121. Re:Not that it matters ... by Tubal-Cain · · Score: 1

    It is, but in the way a toddler does it: using the water already in the tub.

  122. Re:Not that it matters ... by interstellar_donkey · · Score: 2, Interesting

    That or a brand new business of building cargo carrying submarines.

    --
    The Internet is generally stupid
  123. Re:Not that it matters ... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    This was modded interesting? An article that claims the difference in solution affects the buoyancy and thus the displacement was refuted with an argument about *shape*, and it was freakin' modded interesting? :)

  124. Re:Not that it matters ... by dotgain · · Score: 1

    ... or eat corn grown domestically.

    These guys are taking good care of that for ya'. Grow your own corn and fleece a company out of a buck will you, you commie bastard.

  125. Re:Not that it matters ... by interstellar_donkey · · Score: 1

    The upside of all the ice melting is that Kevin Costner will mutate and form gills.

    --
    The Internet is generally stupid
  126. Re:Not that it matters ... by dotgain · · Score: 1
    Good thing you realised that now while we're already investigating.

    Now, we'll be able to utilise an multiple-targeting anti-avian geological-based projectile system.

  127. Re:Not that it matters ... by fugue · · Score: 3, Informative

    Well, most gas usage experts show that driving ~65 MPH is the sweet spot for optimal MPG. It's much better then 80 MPH, or 20 MPH in stop and go traffic.

    Given that wind resistance goes up as the square of your speed, and that rolling resistance is negligible at highway speeds, I am skeptical. Roughly, it takes 1.3 times the work (and 2.2 times the power) to cover a certain distance at 65mph than at 50mph. If drivetrains can be tuned to the tune of 30% just by fiddling with gearing, then cars would probably have more gears, or maybe CVTs. Also, this number is confirmed by my own very rough measurements in a few cars, when I actually have the discipline to drive 50mph over a long enough stretch of flat highway.

    Of course, you stipulated "stop-and-go traffic" in which case a huge portion of your gasoline is used to heat up your brake rotors. Fair enough. But 65mph cannot possibly be a magic number given similar acceleration profiles.

    --
    "The biggest problem with communication is the illusion that it has taken place."
  128. Re:Not that it matters ... by steelfood · · Score: 1

    Allowing ports to be an integral part of the perpetual economic stimulus plan.

    --
    "If a nation expects to be ignorant and free in a state of civilization, it expects what never was and never will be."
  129. Global warming is a hoax! by fugue · · Score: 3, Funny

    Greenpeacers broke off that chunk in order to convince people that their fantasy "globular heating" religion is real. Or maybe it would have broken off anyways but humans aren't responsible--too many polar bears sitting around on an ice shelf for 6000 years are bound to cause some damage eventually. This might happen again if we don't kill all the polar bears. Actually, it's all a liberal pinko lie--you're so gullible, since the ice bridge is just fine, thanks very much. Scientists are out to destroy us all. Haven't you seen them in movies?

    --
    "The biggest problem with communication is the illusion that it has taken place."
  130. Re:Not that it matters ... by mdm-adph · · Score: 1

    Obviously the answer is giant sea walls and desalination plants?

    --
    It is by my will alone my thoughts acquire motion; it is by the juice of the coffee bean that the thoughts acquire speed
  131. Re:Not that it matters ... by Cornelius+the+Great · · Score: 1

    In your small scale experiment, the ice cubes are floating freely, and already mostly under water. In reality, there is a significant amount of ice in Antarctica that resides above sea level, resting directly on terra firma.

    --
    Sigs are for losers
  132. Re:Not that it matters ... by Golddess · · Score: 1

    You forget that it doesn't matter if we are the primary/sole cause, or a tiny blip in the radar. We'll still be just as fucked if we don't learn how to adapt to the changes.

    Now, I'm not saying the change will occur in the next 1, 5, 50, or 500 years. It could even be millennia from now. But let me posit this question, which I feel makes a good analog to doing something about climate change.

    We know the Sun will go red giant in approximately 5 billion years, and at that point we will be fucked if we're still living on this mudball. How long before then should we begin looking into how we can survive out in deep space, and why did you pick the time that you did and not something closer to now?

    --
    "I'm not sure I like the fugnutish tone you used in your post!" -RogL (608926)-
  133. Antarctic = Atlantis by Bysshe · · Score: 1

    you know, there's a crazy theory out there that a huge crust-shift moved atlantis to its current location, the antarctic. This break away of ice could soon reveal that long lost civilization. And then the predators will move in.

    --
    Read what I mean, not what I wrote.
  134. Re:Not that it matters ... by berend+botje · · Score: 1

    Care to tell me which parts are wrong?

  135. Re:Not that it matters ... by homebrewmike · · Score: 1

    I grow my own SUVs you insensitive clod!

  136. Re:Not that it matters ... by JWSmythe · · Score: 2, Insightful

        Actually, I was thinking more like better designed population centers away from the coastline, with more of an aim towards self sufficiency. With encouragement for people to move to the better nicer places, which could operate cleaner than our existing cities, we'd not only have a chance to fix a lot of broken things, but we'd be able to reduce our pollution output, so the ocean side problem wouldn't be one. But once the coastal areas are properly cleaned, they'd be a beautiful place to visit. :)

    --
    Serious? Seriousness is well above my pay grade.
  137. Is that a...? by RFL-3N · · Score: 1

    I did a quick look at Google maps of the peninsula, on satellite view. It looks to me like the peninsula is at one end of an under-sea mountain range that continues straight up through the South American mountains. Is that area tectonicly active? as in earthquakes or volcanos? Flex the ice tray, the ice breaks. Heat the ice tray, the ice melts.

  138. Re:Not that it matters ... by m50d · · Score: 1

    "Less gravity" doesn't make sense. It has less weight than the volume of water it displaces - that's why it floats. Going further, a given chunk of ice will weigh as much as about 9/10th the same volume of water - hence why it'll float with 9/10 of itself below the waterline.

    --
    I am trolling
  139. Re:Not that it matters ... by jafac · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Yeah, but what he and Lex Luthor stupidly failed to realize, is that whether you set-off nukes to trigger the San Andreas fault to drop California into the ocean, or if you drive your SUV to crank up global warming; one undeniable fact remains:

    You have just drowned all the people who even WANTED to live near the ocean. Your property values will NOT go up!!!

    --

    These are my friends, See how they glisten. See this one shine, how he smiles in the light.
  140. ....Oh, that was Wilkins by kindbud · · Score: 1

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I4khXkE5gEI

    "Oh look, that was Wilkins of Finance!"
    "Robertson"
    "Wilkins"
    "Robertson!"
    "Wilkins!"
    "....Oh, that was Wilkins"
    "THAT was Wilkins"

    --
    Edith Keeler Must Die
  141. Re:Not that it matters ... by lgw · · Score: 1

    This "ice bridge" was already floating, IIRC, so no change in sea levels here.

    In any case, given there's an active volcano somewhat nearby, this one may be unrelated to global warming.

    --
    Socialism: a lie told by totalitarians and believed by fools.
  142. Finally! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Phew, finally! I've been waiting for a long time for this!

  143. Re:Not that it matters ... by Cornflake917 · · Score: 1

    Okay, Bill Gates... just calm down.

  144. Re:Not that it matters ... by mkcmkc · · Score: 1

    Sure - five years to build a port. Then start on the next for when that port is drowned.

    Well, yeah, if you're building serial ports. Try parallel ports for better throughput...

    --
    "Not an actor, but he plays one on TV."
  145. Re:Not that it matters ... by Erikderzweite · · Score: 1

    Well, according to broken window theory it will stimulate the economy.

  146. misleading again by CrimsonAvenger · · Score: 1

    Again, it is asserted that the ice sheet has broken free from both islands, when a quick perusal of TFA says that it's only broken loose from one of the two islands, and is still firmly attached to the other.

    --

    "I do not agree with what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it"
  147. Re:Not that it matters ... by JWSmythe · · Score: 1

        Good try.

        But in the broken window theory, the money the shop owner had originally could have gone to other needs. Instead of purchasing a new window (and the trail it follows), he may have bought a goat to provide milk to his family, in turn using the money he saved on buying milk to buy other things. (blah, blah, blah).

        The whole broken window theory just forces money from one place, (the shop owner), and puts it somewhere else. The idea is driven by the idea that someone who can afford to own a business has more money than they need, and the people of lower economic stature deserve it. It's just about as economically sound as Robin Hood.

        If Manhattan was overcome with water (say a 2' MSL rise, a 5' high tide, and an 8' storm surge, rather than the evil 10' global warming MSL rise), over a million people could be without power, transportation, food deliveries, and their housing may not be safe for months or years. Sure, it's good for the economy, if someone can afford to fix it. Look at how well New Orleans has recovered. It's been almost 4 years, and they're still far from "recovered". Please reference my previously linked article for more information on what could happen to Manhattan.

        But hey, who cares, I live on high ground, right? :)

        Right now, I couldn't see rebuilding one major metro area, either in situ or elsewhere. Besides the financial "how do you pay for labor and supplies", the new problem becomes, how do you get the supplies to where they're needed? If trucks can't come over bridges that no longer exist, highways and railroad lines are closed, and the ports are under water ... well ... A tarp and a few sticks make a nice lean-to.

       

    --
    Serious? Seriousness is well above my pay grade.
  148. Re:Not that it matters ... by budgenator · · Score: 1

    No actually the assumption was that the ice bridge that broke loose helped to hold back the land-borne ice from descending into the ocean; but I'm a damned denier so you can't believe anything I say.

    --
    Apocalypse Cancelled, Sorry, No Ticket Refunds
  149. Why quit smoking when... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Aren't they working on a cure for cancer anyway?

    I mean, something is going to eventually give me cancer.

    So, why quit smoking?

  150. Time scales by BeaverCleaver · · Score: 1

    This meme again?

    Yes, the Earth's climate changes. No, it has NEVER changed so rapidly. Ice ages happen over tens of thousands of years, anthropogenic climate change is taking place in a couple of hundred. Orders of magnitude, people.

  151. Re:Not that it matters ... by Kagura · · Score: 1

    Of course, you stipulated "stop-and-go traffic" in which case a huge portion of your gasoline is used to heat up your brake rotors. Fair enough. But 65mph cannot possibly be a magic number given similar acceleration profiles.

    Did you do the math for 88mph, yet?

  152. What large change? by tgibbs · · Score: 1

    I'm a scientist too, and I judge theories based on merit, not popular opinion...The main statement of Global Warming is something like this: "small changes in the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere cause large changes in global temperature".

    Large by what standard? Projected increase in atmospheric CO2 are on the order of a couple of percent or so. Predictions of the temperature rise are on the order of 4 degrees Kelvin. On the absolute temperature scale, the only one that makes physical sense, that's an increase of maybe 1.5%. That doesn't seem so large compared to the 37% increase in CO2 since the 1700's. The projected increase in sea level is a few feet, also a small percentage of the total ocean depth.

    Unfortunately, small percentage changes in the natural world can sometimes have dramatic effects on people. Hardly surprising. After all, if your body temperature rises by 5%, you are pretty sick.

    And you say that you are a scientist? In some nonmathematical field, I presume?

    1. Re:What large change? by m4cph1sto · · Score: 1

      And you say that you are a scientist? In some nonmathematical field, I presume?

      A 37% increase in the concentration of a trace gas is still a small increase. A 4-degree mean temperature increase, given historic temperature trends and the amount of energy involved, is a large increase. You seem to be confusing percentages, which can be misleading, with absolute amounts, which are scientifically relevant. Yes, my field is mathematical.

    2. Re:What large change? by khayman80 · · Score: 1

      A 37% increase in the concentration of a trace gas is still a small increase. A 4-degree mean temperature increase, given historic temperature trends and the amount of energy involved, is a large increase. You seem to be confusing percentages, which can be misleading, with absolute amounts, which are scientifically relevant.

      It seems unproductive to try to compare "small" and "large" when discussing measurements as different as CO2 concentrations and global temperature anomalies.

      Climatologists have concluded that human CO2 emissions are changing the climate because we've introduced gigatons of CO2 into the atmosphere that haven't been part of the ecosystem for millions of years. Because we've raised the concentration of this greenhouse gas to a point 30-40% higher than it's been in the last half million years, the temperature of the planet is too high to be explained by natural forcing.

      Furthermore, a disturbing number of positive feedback effects present the possibility that the climate is only metastable:

      • Melting snow/ice uncovers dark ocean water in the Arctic and dark dirt in the Antarctic. In each case, the albedo of the snow is higher, which means more heat is absorbed after the ice melts.
      • A warmer atmosphere can hold more water vapor, which is a more effective greenhouse gas than CO2.
      • Warmer deep ocean temperatures may destabilize methane hydrate deposits, releasing another more potent greenhouse gas.
      • Melting permafrost releases CO2.
      • Melting glaciers help to lubricate the slide of the glacier into the ocean, speeding up the loss of glaciers once the process starts.
      • Increased temperatures leads to an increased risk of forest fires, which release the CO2 sequestered in the wood.

      There are negative feedback effects, such as the fact that trees grow faster due to more CO2 and thus sequester more CO2 in their wood. But they're outnumbered by the more numerous and powerful positive feedback effects. It seems likely that a little bit of warming will lead to more warming.

  153. Chicken or the egg by tgibbs · · Score: 1

    If a rise in CO2 follows temperature increase, then CO2 levels are an effect not a cause.

    In the real world, many things manage to be both effects and causes. Most of us learn this basic fact about nature in childhood, from contemplation of the the famous riddle, "Which came first, the chicken or the egg?"

    Those who understand this riddle don't find anything particularly remarkable about the fact that CO2 can either lead or follow, depending upon circumstances--it is possible for an increase in CO2 to cause an increase in temperature, and it is also possible for an increase in temperature to cause an increase in CO2. In the former case, CO2 leads temperature; in the latter case it follows.

  154. Re:Not that it matters ... by Erikderzweite · · Score: 1

    The post was meant to be ironic, but thanks for such a detailed explanation :)

  155. Ah...no by Das+Auge · · Score: 1

    That's like a moron, such as yourself, saying that all brushfires are started by mankind.

  156. Re:Not that it matters ... by atraintocry · · Score: 1

    Heh...if someone ever builds a submarine that you can drop containers onto like a barge I will poop my pants in awe :)

  157. Re:Not that it matters ... well, maybe... by focoma · · Score: 1

    The people my actions are going to affect (both in the present and the future generations) will themselves die eventually. The whole universe will inevitably end with either heat death or a Big Crunch, rendering all personal actions futile. So, in a purely materialistic and cosmological point of view, do the effects of my actions really matter? No, it doesn't.

    A Buddhist can look at pictures of decomposing remains and conclude that he must not be worldly. Yet he can also (if he chooses to) look a the same pictures and conclude that nothing hinders him from being worldly, for the worldly and the non-worldly alike will end up rotting in the end; one might as well do as he wishes, for everything is an illusion (ah, that inspired Buddhist phrase!).

    For the record, I do not subscribe to the cynical philosophy I tried to illustrate in the above paragraphs. But given that we do not live in a perfect Christian society where such a philosophy would not exist, environmentalists will have to look for better arguments than "it's nice to be nice to other people" and "you can't take your SUV with you when you die". Because in a doomed, absurd, or illusory universe of atheists or Buddhists, "clinging to the first rationalization that allows people to keep doing what they want" is a perfectly rational thing to do.

    --

    - Francis Ocoma

    Please wait while Sig Request is being processed...

  158. Re:Not that it matters ... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    no, but some of the ladies that hang around the ports can get knocked up in minutes...

  159. Trace gas? by tgibbs · · Score: 1

    A 37% increase in the concentration of a trace gas is still a small increase. A 4-degree mean temperature increase, given historic temperature trends and the amount of energy involved, is a large increase.

    Again, this is a scientifically illiterate comment. The earth receives an immense amount of energy from the sun. So it is obvious that even a small change in either the rate of energy influx or energy efflux could make a substantial difference in the equilibrium temperature.

    Suggesting that a "trace" gas can have little effect is foolish and unscientific. What matters is what it does, not its absolute level. A "trace" level of cyanide will kill you. The fact that atmospheric levels of CO2 make a major contribution to the energy balance of the earth has been known since the 17th century. There is no meaningful scientific dispute about this.

  160. Re:Not that it matters ... by SnarfQuest · · Score: 1

    Since the Arctic completely melted in 2008; according to the Global Warming Scientists, who have a consensus and thus are never wrong; there shouldn't be that much more ice up there to melt. Thus any more rise in sea level should only be about what we have already experienced. I think most of the sea ports still exist above water, so I don't think we have too much to worry about.

    Or do you think that the consensus is wrong, and the Arctic didn't completely melt in 2008? If you think they might have been wrong, then why do you believe them this time?

    --
    Who would win this election: Andrew Weiner vs Andrew Weiner's weiner.
  161. Re:Not that it matters ... by Hognoxious · · Score: 1

    You are James Burke and I claim my five pounds. Or are you? And do I?

    --
    Confucius say, "Find worm in apple - bad. Find half a worm - worse."
  162. Re:Not that it matters ... by chaim79 · · Score: 1

    That doesn't answer the question.

    The parent that I was asking the question to stated that icebergs had their own gravity and it actually 'pulled' water close to them, then as they melted it would loose the gravity and the water wouldn't be 'pulled' close.

    My question is, if the iceberg has less density then the surrounding water, wouldn't the gravitational field of the iceberg be less then the gravitational field of the surrounding water?

    --
    DEMETRIUS: Villain, what hast thou done?
    AARON: Villain, I have done thy mother.
    Shakespeare invents 'your mom'
  163. Re:Not that it matters ... by m50d · · Score: 1

    Oh, sorry, somehow managed to miss what you were replying to. Yes, and I'm pretty sure the gravitational attraction of water to the iceberg is negligible in any case.

    --
    I am trolling
  164. Re:Not that it matters ... by LordVader717 · · Score: 1

    Arctic Ice melts is a very dynamic system and much is replaced in the following winter. It doesn't matter much either way, because about 90% of floating ice's volume is below water, thus sea ice (arctic) only contributes 10% of it's volume to sea level rise. Continental Ice OTOH is a different matter.