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China Has a Massive Windows XP Problem
An anonymous reader writes "The Chinese are going to have a very, very hard time kicking the Windows XP habit. The deadline for the retirement of Microsoft's most successful operating system ever is eight months from tomorrow: April 8, 2014. That's the day when the Redmond, Wash. company is to deliver the last XP security update. According to analytics company Net Applications, 37.2% of the globe's personal computers ran Windows XP last month. If Microsoft's estimate of 1.4 billion Windows PCs worldwide is accurate, XP's share translates into nearly 570 million machines. In the U.S., 16.4% of all personal computers ran Windows XP in July, or about one in six, Net Applications' data showed. But in China, 72.1% of the country's computers relied on the soon-to-retire operating system last month, or nearly three out of every four systems."
ive got at least 4 workstations that are still running xp, we have legacy software and drivers that wont work on win7, and win8 blows. but we dont worry about updates, since these dont connect to the web. m$ is going to be a dinosaur very soon, the signs are there....
Once the patches stop and they all get infected, they'll be so busy sending junk to each other that they won't have time to compute anything.
The determined Real Programmer can write Fortran programs in any language.
It will be interesting to see how they will handle this. When I visited China, computer security didn't seem to be one of the top priorities among the computer users, so the majority of the population might just not care much about updates. If it starts breaking down completely, and Windows 7 or 8 isn't as easy to pirate, perhaps we'll see a Chinese mass migration to Linux.
I wonder how difficult it would be for the Chinese government to make their own Windows patches. They could probably perform a MITM on the windows update servers and feed their own patches if a lot of unpatched Windows machines leads to an increased influx of CIA-sponsored viruses to China.
c++;
But in China, 72.1% of the country's computers relied on the soon-to-retire operating system last month, or nearly three out of every four systems."
This is Slashdot. I think we can do the math on that one.
There is no "I disagree" mod for a reason. Flamebait, Troll, and Overrated are not substitutes.
I own and operate a movie theatre, and my digital projector runs on Windows XP, believe it or not. (The server that talks to it runs on Linux.)
In my case, this setup is not on the Internet; all of the gadgets in my projection room talk only between themselves, so there is no particular security concern in that regard. But I wonder how many other folks have very expensive hardware like this that will probably never be upgraded to run on anything other than XP.
If you're a zombie and you know it, bite your friend!
Of course if you are a big corporation and you can pay, Microsoft should still be able to provide you with security updates. At least that's how it was done with windows 2000 if I remember right...
Everything I write is lies, read between the lines.
next year will be the year of the [Red Flag] Linux Desktop. In all seriousness though, updating China has to be eagerly anticipated in Redmond. It might even be in the Chinese government's interests to encourage users to adopt Linux rather than sending all that money to the States.
"In the U.S., 16.4% of all personal computers ran Windows XP in July."
I mean seriously, it isn't like you even had to click on the article.
A shitload of people is probably hoarding exploits to use when MS stops patching the product. Once that happens,it's gonna be fun to watch.
Anyone keeping XP around for legacy games? Also, games that came out for Windows 98, but can run in XP, but not anything newer? I also have a few that only work with specific graphics cards, for 98, and won't work properly even in XP. Has something to do with game being programed to the card clock/timing... Found an in depth article on this game a while back, and the 'fix' was to either de-prioritize the process to slow it down when using 'other' hardware (cpu/gpu), or rewrite the game.
Now I realize the 'security' problem with doing this, especially with keeping them Internet connected, but the assumption that apps and software of the past are cleanly carried forward is an absolute joke today. Is WINE really the only recourse for this particular problem? I'd prefer it not be, but that's what it presently looks like from where I'm sitting.
These are old machines that aren't capable of upgrading to a more recent version of Windows. The hardware requirements from XP to Vista were to great that no one bothered. XP will still be used well past its expiration point and many will be using linux after.
Further, what percentage of these machines are running pirated copies of WinXP? I know in Latin and South America, they're almost all pirated. How is it in China?
And whats up with referencing Net Applications? I haven't stumbled upon a site using their analytics since the 1990s.
Sources for TFA are elusive at best.
If they are not already running a firewall then they're probably already infected.
If they are running a firewall then they might be infected through a 3rd party app (I'm looking at you, Java). Or maybe not infected at all (that is possible).
Which will be the exact same situation when XP support expires.
of those copies of XP and they'll do the same for 7 or 8.
Probably something like 7.21% of the PCs would pass the Windows Genuine Advantage check...
Microsoft simply has no choice especially if it wants to protect its compatibility insurance with Windows Office. In reality its monopoly in Desktop Applications...Relies on on it being a Monopoly, and it has real competition. I have bought tablets, smartphones, rasberry pi, an Ouya replicating everything I do on a PC. At a fraction of the cost of a less desirable bottom end PC. Intel and Microsoft have been overcharging its hostages on massive gross profits of 70%(Its not working for Apple Macs either), and are finding it very difficult to adjust when its competitors with can produce devices like a Chromebook for $200 a Tablet for $100 a Smartphone for $100 a chromecast for $35. buying an *unpgrade* to the crippled version of Windows 8 at £99($150) is stupid.
The bottom line is any money they earn from cutting off their hostages from essential packages is a potential export to another platform.
I don't see a problem. They probably pirated most of those copies of XP and they'll do the same for 7 or 8.
If all copies of Windows are the same price you have to expect they have *chosen* windows xp over Windows 7 for a reason.
Its not difficult to imagine that many of these machines simply will not work with anything other an XP.
Correct me if I am wrong, but I thought people were starving in China and a very few (1%) can actually afford an iPhone or a new computer.
There's a joke in their somewhere if you're brazen enough to make it.
Time to install Linux.
I thought the Chinese embraced the penguin! What about Asianux and Red Flag Linux?!? I thought the Chinese took a stand and made GNU/Linux their national distro. Come on China, harness that considerable population power to boost the kernel! Download http://www.asianux.com/ pour a cup of ginseng tea and install. I can't believe the Chinese are still stuck on Windows.
"SO we bide our time, waiting for a purer kick to bloom and the future is still bleak, uncertain and beautiful" -GSYBE
I bet at least 3/4 of those xp machines in china are running illegal/bootleg copies anyway.
What does it matter if the copies are bootleg are legit? The software is Microsoft's and Microsoft's credibility is on the line here.
Time is what keeps everything from happening all at once.
But Ballmer, dog bless him, is slowly but surely solving it for us all!
Does MS not realize how vividly anti-consumer this is? Even to non-tech types?
/no hate on Honda; just an example.
What if your auto dealership end-of-life'd your Honda Civic? And thereafter refused to service the vehicle? Would you buy another Honda, or start looking elsewhere for your next car?
And to keep our analogies clear, let's consider that an XP patch (of a security hole) is equivalent to a recall for a manufacturing defect that is fixed for free.
"Perhaps some Snowden type in Redmond will post up the source code.
(or take it to China and auction it off)"
There will be no auction, they already have the code
In light of the semi-recent revelations about MS/NSA collusion, I would think it would be an opportune time to mandate a switch to Linux. What money is saved in doing so could go towards funding the development of any other software they might need.
X
Does that mean we should all be using DOS?
No, but it means that people with a need for DOS should still be using DOS. In a lot of cases, only DOS supports legacy or hobbyist hardware that bit-bangs the parallel port. Likewise, the AC that you replied to has a need for Windows XP for much the same reason: to use hardware that lacks an NT 6 driver.
My wife works for a hospital system and they are still on XP and have no migration plans as of yet. I think there are enough companies like that out there that will force M$ to continue patch support past the 4/8/14 deadline...
Karma: Bad
Well, would you choose a GM Saturn over a Toyota or Honda?
I don't think providing extended-extended support for a customer base who is migrating away from microsoft products is going to make microsoft very much money in the long term.
http://articles.latimes.com/2006/apr/09/business/fi-micropiracy9 "Piracy also prevents free, open-source alternatives such as Linux from chipping away at Microsoft's monopolies, especially in developing nations."
Nothing has changed simply because Microsoft is heading towards a self generated deadline.
Surf and email with Linux, use MS Office or whatever other applications on XP in a virtual machine. Same XP, just inside a safe place.
Vista was a flaming piece of shit, Windows 7 addressed some of the issues with Vista but it still grated because features that have been in a common place on Windows since NT4 got shifted just to be cute. Same as what happened to Office in version 2007 and up. That fucking ribbon shit.
And then there's Windows 8. First of all I don't want a mobile operating system running on my desktop or laptop. And I've even seen Win8 on the Nokia phone - it's disgusting. That tiled interface is for the dogs. And the issue with Microsoft's Surface tablet - it can't run the same apps because of the processor difference. That's why Microsoft is dropping prices like the proverbial rock on that platform. Plus Windows 8 on a laptop - lest one has a touch screen on it, it blows big time.
I'm considering just going Unix full time. Probably Ubuntu when I do. But I need the MS Office Apps. I do a lot of development for Access and Excel in VBA and that just isn't available for Unix/Linux. I support I could see if it'll run under WINE but honestly, that's a hoop I really don't want to have to jump through.
I'll let you in on a little secret -- a lot of embedded control systems are still running Windows 98. Test by: Stick around when a bottle return machine is rebooted.
In other words. What is China going to do when XP is "retired"? You're kidding, right?
Oliver's law of assumed responsibility: If you're seen fixing it, you will be blamed for breaking it.
When XP's EOL comes, Microsoft will have supported it for nearly 13 years. How long do you want them to support it for?
Yet was only replaced 6 years ago by Vista, and did not have a real alternative till Windows 7. In fact Microsoft sold XP well beyond its Vista Operating Systems to starve off the mobile threat...then in the less threatening Netbook form, XP was used to stave of Linux. A strategy that gained them a few years Windows revenue at the cost of letting the iPad...and now Android into the Personal Computer Space.
In answer to your question...long enough not to let your competitors through the door. Especially if your strategy is to license your OS to *Manufacturers* not customers.
Thanks to the US export restrictions on encryption the Asians use ActiveX obtracities for banking and web shopping written in VB 6 with many designed for IE 6.
Many slashdotters ignorantly think the 10% of IE 6 users are all corps. They are almost all Chinese and Korean users. The good news is Xihnu and ebay are now updating their sites to work with IE 8.
What does that mean? Like the corps Linux and anything later than 2001 is a no go.
I swear that browser is more of a nightmare than Windows ever was for lockin.
http://saveie6.com/
IMHO, the best solution might be a a new round of massive discounts after Windows 8.1 is released. This applies also elsewhere than just China. The only solution to get people to adopt Windows 8 is to get them to upgrade from Windows 7 and a really cheap price like $19.99 is the only option for MS.
China's whole tax system works on a printed documents called a fapiao (fa-piao).
Every company in China has at least one dedicated machine with a special dot matrix printer to print fapiaos.
The software to print fapiaos only runs on Windows XP.
It can not be understated how critical fapiaos are to China's tax system. Big companies use them to pay the 17% VAT (some services and logistics companies pay less than 17%). If you lose the fapiao you get from your supplier, you might as we have lost actual cash. You must have it to offset the VAT you owe. During your annual tax review, you must have fapiaos to keep your taxes low. These are so important, there is a booming business in faking fapiaos. This is mostly done through fake transactions. Faking the actual fapiao is not so easy these days. Each fapiao carries a unique number and can the traced.
If you go out to eat, you can demand a fapiao. For westerners, this can be submitted to reduce your taxes. The top tax rate is 45%, so fapiaos are very valuable. For local Chinese, they submit them as a business/company expense. For people working in restaurants, this is a source of extra cash. If a customer doesn't ask for a fapiao, the employees can print one anyway. On the black market, these can be sold for 5-10 cents on the dollar. The same applies to cab drivers. Many passengers don't take their receipt. The receipt is a valid fapiao that can be used to reduce taxes. The cab drivers will sell them for extra cash. Just ask. :)
Microsoft wanted a monopoly and they got it. Now it is up to them to preserve or loose it. Hint, demanding tribute from those who have nothing to give is not the answer.
Microsoft pays to all this "anti-virus" labs to instead of writing mild viruses to sell their products, write one that wipes out all of the XPs after a couple of months of being installed.
Microsoft could have ruled forever if they but chose to open source their OS and gave it away for free. Instead what they do? Money today, death tomorrow.
Time is what keeps everything from happening all at once.
It is at a heavy cost. A car receives support anywhere close to as we think of it in the software world for only a few years or a certain mileage limit. During that time, if there are problems, they fix it. However after that, it is your dollar. Also it is only repairs, no updates.
I have a 1996 car and the dealer will still work on it, you can get parts, but the charge quite a bit for both the parts and labour. There are no updates to it, no improvements. Subsequent models got a more powerful, turbocharged, engine but I don't get to have that retrofitted unless I want to spend serious money (and the dealer won't do it, someone else would have to).
People need to STFU about MS support as it is actually very good. Their OS support is 10 years from date of initial release. So when an OS comes out you are guaranteed security fixes for at least 10 years from the release date. Sometimes they'll extend that, but you get at least 10 years. That is split in to 5 years of general support, meaning it tends to get service packs and often new features, and 5 years of extended support meaning it tends to get only security updates.
That's not a bad lifecycle. Even the LTS very of Ubutnu is only 5 years, OS-X is two version behind the current, which translates to like 3-4 years. At 10 years of support, with no subscription or anything, MS is not bad.
It isn't like this XP thing is sneaking up on people, it has been known for a long time, some people are just choosing not to deal with it.
Also, realistically, if you get the most current Windows on your computer when you buy it, it'll last for the life of the computer. Even if it is a couple years in to support, the computer is likely to be very old and slow, and probably breaking down, by the time it goes out. For example if you bought a system with Windows 8 on it today, it would go out of support in January of 2023. My guess is that 9.5 years from now, whatever you bought will be showing its age pretty badly, if it even still runs, and be due for a replacement. Heck even a system with 7 goes out of support in January of 2020. So over 6 years until you'd need to upgrade, and again, might be new system time at that point.
Once upom time I did care about updating my XP. Then about 3 years ago the updates stopped installing, they would loop forever. Apparently a MS bug. They released a fix, the fix didn't work for me.
The news: no malware, no virus, no intruders for the past 3 years. The recipe: no javascript. And even Slashdot becomes readable.
Look at Ubuntu: They support standard releases for a year (they've reduced it) and LTS releases for 5 years. That means from the date of initial release. RHEL is 10 years of support for their 5 and 6 releases (7 for 3 and 4) and then you can buy 3 more years of support for extra money.
OS-X is a bit different in that Apple supports two version older than the current one. That in practice means about 3-4 years of support, but is harder to plan since you don't know how fast releases will come, you don't get a defined, guaranteed, cycle.
So... Where's the company that gives a much longer/better support cycle? Because I sure don't see it.
So are you suggesting that China make its own OS? If every country in the world made a different OS for fear of control from another nation, the software world would turn into a nightmare. Standardization is good in technology, and has always been pursued (think POSIX, FreeDesktop, etc). And anyway every high-level technological hardware component we use is made by a couple of countries in the world only. A nation can use free software if it wants to be safe against hidden espionage holes.
I didn't suggest they made it from scratch. A few years ago headlines went around about then thinking to mandate reflag linux for all state operations.
redflag ; dictionaries at work here.
Why change when so much software is still being churned out as 32 bit, single threaded and doesn't run reliably without Admin permissions?
As long as we have so many software developers stuck in 1995 then even XP is overkill.
So... Where's the company that gives a much longer/better support cycle? Because I sure don't see it.
Microsoft is the the only one pushing the OEM model sold to manufactures. GNU/Linux is Open/Free sold on services...Which is why even the latest of its regular releases of a few months old work on XP computers. Apple is moving towards being an Electronics company (Microsofts Wet Dream) using its OS to differentiate itself from others. They expect you...and demand you update every few years.
Ubuntu if your updating your software...Although some would argue Apple if your updating your hardware. Oh you mean support, by standing still.
Comment removed based on user account deletion
Most people in china turn off windows auto update to save internet usage. So stopping patches wont do any difference.
Sorry I misunderstood. By the way, I always wondered why many countiries would create a custom linux distribution, and not use for example Debian or Ubuntu and simply provide a default list of installed packages. Is there a strong technical reason apart from political control and censorship?
In May, Panda Labs (not Express) published a study suggesting that 55% of computers in China are infected by malware. http://www.nbcnews.com/technology/half-chinas-computers-infected-malware-study-finds-1B8290982 I had the pleasure of cleaning up malware on friends' computers while living in China, back when XP was the dominant OS. Though my sample size was small, I believe the Panda Labs number comes much closer to reality than what is captured by the afterthought that is Windows Malicious Software Removal Tool. Popular programs like QQ are laden with security holes that essentially invite any hacker to take control of a PC. The end of XP updates may cause extra few million computers to be infected, but it will be a drop in the bucket compared to the true problem. My advice is- don't trust personal computers in China or email servers in China.
Stay skeptical, my friends.
...that will be Microsoft's problem.
They will have to either sell Win7 (or 8) to greatly reduced price or see 1 billion "customers" change either to Linux or ReactOS.
Better idea - PC-BSD. Either the driver will exist, or it won't, whereas w/ Linux, you'll have to match the driver version w/ the right kernel & library & what have you.
I'm positive that in 90% of the cases XP kan be readily replaced with Ubuntu and Wine!
Lets face it, there are not many licensed copies of XP in China. Meh!
You want a signature? You can't handle a signature!!
Wouldn't it be much easier, cheaper and more secure if the Chinese government would develop their own OS from scratch?
Even though many of us do not agree with the way the Chinese government runs the country but they - unlike most countries - have the ability to make things happen.
They have plenty of highly skilled coders en plenty of resources, I believe it's one of the few countries that can pull it off successfully.
This will give them many advantages:
- Full source control
- More secure / not dependable on other parties to fix issues.
- Can be catered to the needs of the government / Chinese people.
They did release their own OS, a crappy one based on Ubuntu. Nobody uses it.
... and in the DRM, bind them.
So they're fine. It's not as if more than 1% of those copies are legit anyway.
Customisation out of the box, I guess. As much as I love Debian and use in my servers, it sucks to use flash or customise it by hand to support fully Skype or I guess some more esoteric languages. And then the chinese gov can also add their spyware/control software as a bonus too.
It's a direct answer to your line:
The only failure to deliver on the right hardware is XP. I seem to remember that even on multi-CPU systems XP still had the 4GB ceiling per system while Win2k could address that much per CPU without even using PAE. It was a cut down system for home computers that just happened to be good enough in a lot of offices, but it was a bit of a spit in the face of the consumer who had to settle for something not entirely compatible with any of the CPUs available when it was released.
China has the source anyway so they'll just maintain their own edition of XP for the chinese market. What's Microsoft going to be able to do about that?
It would be the biggest espionage coup of all time.
What are you talking about? Because banks like ICBC, Bank of China and Agricultural Bank of China works just fine with other browsers and other operating systems while we are it. ICBC in particular has even more sophosticated security measures than Bank of America.
I'm surprised MS hasn't announced they're moving to a model where XP patches are available as part of a subscription service - I'd pay $2 per month to keep Windows update running on my XP machine - Just tie Windows update to a Windows Live account, with a credit card attached to that. Corporate customers could purchase a site license. If there really are millions upon millions of XP machines out there, there must be some money to be made here.
If China would just steal the WinXP source code and publish it, the world community would not only continue to provide security updates, but probably fix all the bugs.
"I believe in Karma. That means I can do bad things to people all day long and I assume they deserve it." : Dogbert
Postal Service Bank's log-in only works with IE (fails on Chrome and Firefox last I tested), but at least it works with IE8.
Great post.
Why do people act as if their computer will explode the instant MS stops supporting the OS?
I used win2k for years after MS stopped support.
Seems to me China has, easily, three years to upgrade. What is the great panic?
if they don't need another browser why would they need to discover Firefox.
People come to need another browser when a web application that they use raises an error message:
This can be a web application that someone just discovered or an update to a web application that one has used for months or years. And "old versions of Internet Explorer" is usually IE <= 8, but it can also be IE <= 10 in the case of a WebGL visualization of the visual cortex.
And why Firefox above all other non-IE browsers?
On Windows XP, it's pretty much either Firefox or Chrome, and the "Fix this" page would explain the pros and cons of Firefox and Chrome. For example, Chrome synchronizes with Chrome on your Android smartphone, but Firefox sends less information to Google. Firefox allows setting a master password on its password storage even on an operating system without a built-in keychain.
Windows 7 Professional provides XP Mode for applications, as other Anonymous Coward replies to your comment pointed out. But virtualization has a time overhead, and I don't see how timing-sensitive device drivers can be made to work transparently in a virtual machine.
is the US considered a hostile nation by China? because we basically let them do whatever the fuck they want to do. Obama, Clinton & Kerry have had a very muddled Chinese foreign policy that's pretty much summed up by the phrase "appeasement". bismarckian idiots.
Remember kids, if you're not paying for the service, YOU ARE THE PRODUCT THAT IS BEING SOLD.
All fine and dandy to plug out the stats, but stats can be manipulated. If 80% of the xp out in china are all illegal copies, they already have no updates coming in, as they have been black listed and are running without windows updates turned on, and the genuine advantage disabled. This means that NOTHING will change, and all will continue as it has....they will still be using cloned copies and move into the 22nd century still using xp, ;)
Or Rankin.
I come here for the love
The ChiComs will just make a "Chinese Copy" :)
It is an opportunity to cut the string to MS and deploy their own.
Linux or Android is poised to fill in the gap on what is surely venerable hardware.
Or they could roll their own...
Despite the subject this old dog will not go poof the day MS backs away. It will simply live on and fester. By all /. Accounts the sources to the older version of MS stuff have bee slurped up. Combine this with the piles of national debt paper to use as a pry bar they could demand fixes or the "right" to fix their own problems.
One very real possible outcome is that this will crack the MS hold on a large part of the world's desktops.
Truth is stranger than fiction, but it is because Fiction is obliged to stick to possibilities; Truth isn't. Mark Twain.
They could very well send their industrial secrets by mail to Microsoft and NSA instead of using Windowsit wouldnt make much difference. :)
What makes you think the Chinese ever upgraded out of Windows 98 ? Microsoft only knows about the ones that registered XP.
Given that modern hardware uses memory mapped I/O that doesn't require context switches
Except programs running on the virtual machine access the virtual machine's I/O, and the VM program needs to map that to the host machine's I/O in a way that does not interfere with other programs running on the host machine. For example, video memory has been memory-mapped since the PC was first sold, but users of PC-based VM programs still expect to be able to redirect the virtual machine's display to a window.
"But in China, 72.1% of the country's computers relied on the soon-to-retire operating system last month, or nearly three out of every four systems." I'll bet that 75% of these operating systems are illegal copies, so, who cares?!!!!
My karma is bad. Don't get too close!!!
I agree with your points. I actually think the differences are cultural more than technological.
Desktop:
Windows has far and away the least educated and the least motivated user base.
Apple has a very strong policy of forced upgrades which allows them to respond to security threat vectors incredibly aggressively and quickly.
Server:
Linux has tremendous diversity
Linux has a long standing tradition of software with rare exceptions coming from the distribution not 1st parties
Linux has a reputation of security patches being free so Apache, MySQL (similar to Exchange in usage) get patches fast.
Microsoft backdown on previous deadlines because of netbooks. At the time they weren't willing to see a non Microsoft OS take the low end of the market. With phones and tablets that's a done deal. They need their OEMs and customers to move up market, spending more. What upside would there be for them to back down?