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Superflu Being Brewed in the Lab
Genial Generalist writes "Superflu is being brewed in the lab, an article by Michael Le Page, describes some of the ongoing efforts to genetically modify the different strains of flu, specifically CDC modification of bird flu for the purpose of developing new vaccines."
Wasn't there a movie about this very topic not too long ago?...hmm...I believe it was dubbed Mission Impossible 2.
Point being, haven't we learned any lessons from the movies?!
Create super virus - (and hopefully the corresponding vaccine).
Sell super virus to terrorists - (and act like it got stolen).
Keep vaccine to sell to public when 'Outbreak' occurs (another good movie).
I hope someone can understand the devastation that could arise should this truly happen!
But, if 'Outbreak' does occur or 'Mission Impossible 2' then I'm getting out of the city and heading to the hills!
From the article:
In 2001, for instance, Australian researchers created a mousepox virus far more virulent than any wild strains. This scenario is unlikely, but not impossible, says virologist Earl Brown of the University of Ottawa, Canada.
"You could create something that is right out of whack, but I'd be surprised."
Mousepox virus. Is it good or is it whack?
Looks like this researcher has been reading a little bit too much slashdot.
Casual Games/Downloads
First news item about Cap'n Trips I've seen in a while anyway.
I'd better start looking for real estate in either Boulder or Las Vegas. Not sure yet.
Don't blame Durga. I voted for Centauri.
This make anyone else think of Stephen King's The Stand ?
That said, I think the dangers of this are exaggerated. No doubt it would be a catastrophe if it were to escape the lab, but life is a lot more resilient than it is usually given credit for. Creating "a virus that could kill tens of millions if it got out of the lab" is a catchy line in an article (or a cheesy plot for a movie), but there is absolutely no basis for it. I think any benefit that comes from this sort of research far outweighs the hypothetical dangers.
The bigotry of the nonbeliever is for me nearly as funny as the bigotry of the believer. - Albert Einstein
Quickly, someone call Hollywood! Only Tom Cruise can save us now.
We've been in a position for years where a massive failure at any number of nuclear or biological research facilities could effectively kill us all.
so they've added one more to the list.
It's the sort of thing you get used to.
lysergically yours
Sounds like a superhero name. "What's wrong with that guy? It's mono! It's a cold! It's....SUPERFLU!"
Please take a number to administer beatings.
...
Some say that this sort of research is dangerous because of the risk of the virus escaping or being using in bioterrorism, and others that it's good science.
Refusing to perform research does not preclude others from doing the same for evil purposes.
Yet another post by someone who didn't click-thru to the article
Magic Eight Ball: Outlook not so good., Hmmm, how about Excel and Word?
My kid's daycare has a pretty good batch going at all times...
A movie about the superflu? There was the miniseries of "The Stand".
Here's a bit of lyrics by The Alarm:
"When I looked out the window
On the hardship that I struck
I saw the seven phials open
The plague claimed man and son
Four men at a grave in silence
With hats bowed down in grace
A simple wooden cross
It had no epitaph engraved
Epitaph engraved
It had no epitaph engraved
Come on down
And meet your maker
Come on down
Come on down
And make the stand"
And yes, Stephen King is alive and well.
Don't blame Durga. I voted for Centauri.
Only Tom Cruise can save us?
We're all doomed!
Heads for the nearing sporting goods department and sets up home in a nearby supermarket
Music is everybody's possession.
It's only publishers who think that people own it.
Fuck Beta
~John Lenno
Isn't that a bit superfluous?
Oh snap, oooooh snap! Score one for the big I!
Until Slashdot fixes the funny modifier, use insightful or interesting. The poster knows your intentions.
The tendency of the human race to both improve it's awareness of the world while at the same time endangering itself has been the cause of grief and happiness.
This though, seems to be of little benefit to anyone, unless it guarantees a cure for the common cold!
I think you lose the "h" if you are denigrating something: "That's wack!"
Well, hey, I didn't spend all those years playing Dungeons and Dragons and not learn a little something about courage.
sorry but the USSR plan was nukes and a "virus cocktail". They would hit major cites with nukes and lay waste there, however the fields that made crops had to be saved (we ship most of the grain they live on to them). They planned to release biological weapons on the great plains, not just a little problem stuff but things like anthraz and small pox or malaria and eboloa. By mixing the virus it becomes harder to trace what antibody the hospital needs, and the next year they can vacinate some people against what was spread in the area to allow farming to resume, 2 winters later the dieases would have died.
I'm told you are what you eat, does that mean I can be you by tomorrow with some A1?
Are the benefits of such a vacine really worth the chance of the virus excaping and causing an epidemic?
I'm not saying it isn't, just a point to ponder.
Mainly because he's one of the few that lives in Steven King's "The Stand".
The part of the Walking Dude should be played by Darl McBride =]
End of Line.
1. Create ubervirus
2. Create vaccine for said ubervirus
3. ????
4. Profit!
sorry about that...
The 1918 pandemic killed 30-40 million, about half of them otherwise healthy adults (as opposed to most flu's, which affect mostly the young and old).
Given that the world population has more than tripled since then, and given the increases in world travel, a death toll of over 100 million would not be unlikely for a similar flu. I wouldn't be surprised if it went higher (with a similar strain to the 1918 flu).
I heard on NPR a week or two ago, from an author who wrote about the 1918 pandemic, that in one instance a man boarded a trolley. Before the trolley got to the end of the line, the conductor and several passengers were dead.
As far as the benefit outweighing the dangers, I agree. But I don't think the dangers are exaggerated.
I'm from up north, but I'll give it a try:
"Ootbreark."
"Owwwwootbreeark."
Nope, sorry.
...
It's only a matter of time, perhaps 10 or 20 years, until a grad student or third world scientist will be able to easily engineer his own deadly plague virus.
Human nature is not going to change. We are petty and short sighted, driven by emotion. These things WILL be made, eventually. It is likely sooner or later something really bad will get loose.
I am afraid for the whole Human Race. How do we prepare for this or prevent this?
- For the complete works of Shakespeare: cat
Sounds not unlike a certain 70s novel I read once. Maybe the survivors of said flu can battle out the final war of good vs. evil! Post apocalyptic society here I come! -Runz
Movies are here to entertain, if there are lessons in a movie then we should all check ourselves into a clinic. We shouldn't respect movies since they are corporate. The most we can get from a movie is entertainment, if it does not entertain then we should revolt.
I've read that human evolution has stopped, because modern medicine has eliminated most of the diseases that cause death prior to being mature enough to reproduce.
If one of these superviruses was released, could it be viewed as a way of pushing along evolution, since only those strong enough and with the genetics to survive the virus would live to reproduce?
Good Idea: Studying naturally occuring flu viruses to learn how to prevent future pandemic outbreaks.
Bad Idea: Deliberately creating new versions of the flu, to learn how to prevent future outbreaks.
The frightening thought is that they aren't using the highest grade of quarantine level. I suppose though, when it does get out, they'll know how they made it, and theoretically, also how to fight it. At least until it mutates naturally.
Interesting article with Superflu mathematical modeling information:
s _1 2_22_03.html
http://www.maa.org/editorial/mathgames/mathgame
Movies generate a lot of fear of science, from the nuclear boogeyman who manifested as Attack of the 100 foot [animal] in the 50s and 60s, to the recent batch of nano-germ-megaflu series of movies, like 12 Monkeys, Outbreak, the Andromeda Strain, the Stand, etc..
Fact is, noone brews up a killer virus like Mother Nature. There are thousands of strains of the flu, many fatal to a percentage of their victims.. HIV, Ebola, Smallpox, Anthrax, etc.. Lots of nasty shit out there. There's fecal coliforms on your toothbrush! Eww, I saw it on Mythbusters.
Anyways, humanity survives. We survived the plague, we'll survive AIDS, we'll survive whatever Professor Peabody and his mad, mad test tubes come up with.
After all, we don't know enough to cure the common cold, how could we know enough to create the perfect virus?
I don't need no instructions to know how to rock!!!!
Have you seen this season's "24" ?
So, would you go out with me if I was the last man alive???
Yes? Hmmmmmmm....
"for the purpose of developing new vaccines." ...or for use as a new biological warfare weapon against whomever we get a fart crooked towards next week...
Avian flu, however, would likely kill the egg--Dead Eggs Produce No Antibodies, i.e. no vaccine. Luckily, it's more difficult for avian flu to make the species jump to humans in a virulent form, but the WHO, CDC, and other groups are scared to death some bird flu is going to figure this out soon and we'll be helpless in front of it. It's 1918 all over again.
Don't get to cranky about these folks looking at ways to culture flu virii in something other than chickens--they're looking for answers.
blarg.
Anyone wanna join me in a group called "Army of the 12 monkeys" in order to divert the attention of the time travellers and preserve a future of virtual instinction?
Just a suggestion..
Thanks to IP laws, it's not possible. If you intend to do such a thing you would be sued by MI2 scenarist !
"She is testing the ability of the new viruses to spread by air and cause disease in ferrets, whose susceptibility to flu appears to be remarkably similar to ours."
I don't mind testing mice, rats, monkeys and maybe few humans I know. I am evil. But I draw the line at ferrets, they are way too cool.
Hey it was joke, mice, rats and monkeys are cool too.
I don't suffer from insanity, I enjoy every minute of it.
Any of you guys remember the start sequence of the TV show 'Survivors'?
http://www.survivorstvseries.com/
Environmentalism is the new Victorianism. Everyone ties on a green corset and pretends we're virtuous.
Nah the superflu kills all the dogs and cats and we resort to apes as pets
I am not concerned - I have the Super Vaccine and a 100 Megaton bomb and I ain't afraid to use them!
www.eFax.com are spammers
Now we get to play pass the Supervirus! (ALA "Nuke War" from Flying Buffalo games.)
[Now, I'm off to lift my le... Um, visit... at another place.]
You could sneeze, and millions of little highly infectious AIDS snot-droplets would fly everywhere and stick to everything. AIDS would get the resistance to being outside the body of the FLU, and the FLU would get the incurability and near 100% fatality rate of AIDS. Even the long incubation period from AIDS would be useful to this AIDS/FLU chimera. It would most likely spread to 99% of the human population in a year and be dismissed as a mild flu. But, it would hide out symptomless until the infected got some other form of cold which would make them sneeze and spread it to others. Only in 6 or 10 years would the Immune Deficiency activity kick in. This would make the infected more suceptible to colds, and so more contageous. And we all fall down!! Mooo Haa haa!
Hey all this superflu being brewed in a lab HAH
Ive got strains of all kinds of previously unknown shit growing in my fridge at the moment
Ive even tested the human vector factor by eating some greenish ham yesterday, GUESS WHAT ????
Im sick as hell, guess it works !
So you're volunteering to be a test case for this superflu?
Denver Isuzu Suzuki
It was to be dubbed Superflu-US, but then it was decided they didn't need it after all..
-dameron
The folks at Symantec will take care of it. Actually, I suppose getting a flu shot is conceptually the same as doing a "liveupdate" -- it just hurts more.
Given that the story is based on efforts to make a useful vaccine against a _known_ virus already out there, talk of creating 'superflu' is just ... superfluity.
-wb-
And you forgot "The Stand" by Stephen King.
Sig it.
Release this puppy, it's the only way I can use all those "I guess yes, if the world were going to end." lines girls gave me!
Nearly all books are published by corporations, too, so I guess we can't respect them, either.
Don't blame me; I'm never given mod points.
[tinfoil hat] This is why I only drink cheap American beer, which I boil first because I don't trust the pasteurization process... I'm thinking of switching to straight bourbon... [/tinfoil hat]
"Who are in control, they are not in control of anything - they don't even control themselves!" - Glen Beck
Fehler.
My grandfather came down with the 1918 flu with his entire Army unit just before they shipped out to France. 2/3 of the unit died. These were young men at the peak of physical condition, but living in very close quarters. Most died literally overnight. He was hospitalized for a month, and fortunately, missed the war. And by the way, it was called "Spanish Flu". Most of the /. crowd is too damn young to remember the major pandemics of the 20th century (Spanish Flu, Polio, TB). Viruses can and will kill a hell of a lot of people in a hurry. Any nice theory to the opposite is obviously developed by people who failed to sudy or remember history. So far we've been damn lucky in the last 30 years. While I'm sure our luck will run out some time, deliberately coming up with an agent that will ENSURE megadeaths is the height of arrogance and stupidity.
"Superflu" is so last century... "Flu Reloaded" would be a better choice!
No wait...
IANAS, but if I recall correctly, the problem with biological agents like virii are that it's very difficult to create a highly contagious, high-mortality virus. Virii need a living host to reproduce, mutate, and pass on their modified genes to the descendants. Airborne virii need to be extremely hardy to survive outside their ideal breeding conditions (read: human host). And a virus that is so virulent it kills its host almost immediately won't live for very many more generations -- it's an unsuccessful mutation.
That being said, it's still possible to balance all the factors so you have a fairly lethal virus, relatively contagious, that mutates quickly and successfully. It's just not as likely to end up as a Captain Tripps, or even an Ebola.
Toxins, on the other hand, are better for short-term, near-instantaneous death, and are more likely to be "controllable" through judicious application. Again, there are contraindications such as method of application, weather, &tc. that would warrant not using them.
The various death merchants will keep experimenting anyway, but it's nice to know that we're far more likely to be wiped out as a species by a giant asteroid than from a little critter built in a lab.
From Stephen King's Official Site. Comander (sic) Trip? Where'd you find that one, kiddo?
Needless to say, this knowledge would be incredibly valuable. And, yes, dangerous in the wrong hands -- but the genes which allow human infection in bird flu may not be, and in fact are probably not, the same genes which allow human infection in other viruses.
Dance like nobody's watching. Sing like you're in the shower. Fuck like you're being filmed.
I wonder what will happen '28 Days Later' (yet another good movie)
This certainly remind of the black pest which he, was not engineered by men, and at time killed between 33 and 50% of the populations depending on the source, 1/3 being toward the realistic estimate average, 50%,90% being for some unlucky palce which were "emptied" : black pest resource population loss
I think that in matter of research I am giving credit [sic] to the human mind we can do at least as good, if not better than black plague , by augmenting the incubation time and reducing the healing possibility (make it attack lymphocit like AIDS ! but spread with lung !). Let us take the same loss as basis.
THIS MEANS THAT EVERY THIRD PERSON YOU KNOW WOULD DIE.
I still agreee that the benefits might overweight the hypothetical danger, but those danger are not that hypotetycal seeing that much $$$ were given by both west and east block into biological research. Do not make those danger less than they are.
C. Sagan : A demon haunted world:
http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0345409469/
visit randi.org
All science and research should be stopped for fear of the off chance that something out of a crappy checkout-line novel will occur.
Have Stephen King books taught us nothing?
Blaze a trail to the New World
Until then, learn how to use a shovel. It's called a bunker, and a couple years worth of rice with long term storage costs less than a notebook PC.
I'm only half joking.
..don't panic
The Stand, by Stephen King
:)
sudo eat my shorts
Although it could be worse then Tom..
I'd rather see Thandie Newton save my day
(every day if that's not mission impossible
Never a dude like this one!
He's got a plan
to stick it to the man!
Oh... Superfl u
Am I the only one that accidentally read "Supafly being brewed in the lab?"
___ This sig is in boldface to emphasize its importance!
But Nature also seems to be good at counter-balancing its viruses so that they don't wipe out everything (thus ending up killing the virus as well - it needs something to spread to).
For example many of the most deadly viruses which you have practically no chance of surviving such as Ebola are not airborne. Syphilis used to be much more deadly but gradually evolved into a less potent form.
Also you forget that a lot of the diseases we survive (as in the population in general not individual people) because people gradually develop immunity to them especially due to proximity to animals. For example smallpox. For examples of what happens when people are suddenly exposed to diseases just look at aboriginal populations like the Australian Aborigines, the South American or North American Indians.
So a man-made virus:
(1) While a natural virus's main aim is to survive and hence not kill everything in sight, thus either is either difficult to spread (anything that doesn't involve airbourne or a simple touch) or is simply not instantly deadly, a man-made virus does not need to fill this condition and thus can be both deadly and easy to spread. In fact these are the sort of mutations they are working on in the experiments.
(2) The virus escapes suddenly into a population which has none or practically no immunity to it.
So a man-made virus could very well be something that nature has never produced and is not likely to produce - a virus as deadly as Ebola (99% death rate), as easy to spread as the cold (airbourne and touch) released suddenly into a population which has even less immunity to it than the American Indians to smallpox.
Then people will get sick.
The Plague - in dark ages it wiped out 2/3 of population. Also aren't we lucky that AIDS does not spread via air, but what if the next generation of some currently incurable virus is air-born - well it's plague #2.
Now we're fucked.
A NYC lawyer blogs. http://www.chuangblog.com/
..and were going to sprinkle it among the hills of Afghanistan to see what affect it has on Al- ..er rock formations.
boycott slashdot February 10th - 17th check out: altSlashdot.org
Basically the 1918 pandemeic of Spanish Flu was the reason WWI ended. No one was able to fight.
Maybe you should all find out just who exactly is Dr. Phillip Zack.
That may make it easier to get a grip on how the ole 'thrax attacks happened in the first place.
They're letting newbies train in our cubicles during a different shift, at my temp job.
For some, it must be the equivalent of potty-training, with all the refuse and grime we arrive to, every day.
Several of us have gone home or called in sick over the last week, probably not coincidentally.
Get off my launchpad!
--I'm getting out of the city and heading to the hills!--
You won't make it more than a few miles before us ruralites gun you down. Do you think that I want to give away the food I worked all year to grow to someone who is JUST NOW learning that something bad might happen? You wanted socialism, go make Bush give you some of HIS food.
Profound lack of foresight, my man.
Dude, Scientology works. It would actually save us, and if Tom can get it rolling, then good. 'Coz thats a solution.
...not to mess with nature after the incident with putting laser beams on sharks' heads and the accident involving the mutated, thirty foot tall crustaceans.
Oh well...I for one welcome our new microbial overlords.
No comment.
When Superflu is brewed in the lab, he will fight crime while driving around in a cadilac convertible.
And he'll get all the chicks.
The Kruger Dunning explains most post on
It's only a matter of time before conspiracy theories pop up on this, or at least include this in their current theories. Or rather, pull the I-told-you-so card.
This sig no verb.
We have been developing means to fight off pandemics:
1) Cleaner living enviroment
2) Better medicine
3) Better medical practices
4) Better communication.
5) Better food storage.
The Kruger Dunning explains most post on
The price of housing in Boulder, Colorado is going up cause of this...
There's a growing sense that even if The Future comes,
most of us won't be able to afford it.
-- Lemmy
The issue is that we've got this super-nasty avian flu, which is kinda like airborne ebola for birds. We had an outbreak in the U.S. and had to slaughter 20 million chickens, and the critters' organs were liquifying.
The problem is, when viruses mix they sometimes exchange genetic material. And we've had a few cases of humans getting sick with the bird flu virus, which as far as we know, they've always caught directly from the birds. When they catch it, they die about 1/3 of the time. So, the big fear is that somebody will come down with bird flu and human flu at the same time, the two will exchange the right genes, and we'll end up with a 33% lethal flu that transmits human to human.
What these guys are doing is deliberately mixing the two viruses, and seeing if they can get that to happen. They're not doing any custom engineering, they're just giving nature a little helping hand.
The reason they're doing it, of course, is that if it can happen, sooner or later it will, without our help. I read an article a couple years ago, in which a researcher on the subject admitted he has a cabin in the mountains, to which he plans to flee when this particular shit hits the fan.
So it would be nice to know a little more about this stuff before it emerges. Of course, it would be even nicer if they did this research in Level 4 containment. The CDC justified the lower level saying that's the official guideline from the Agriculture Dept for avian flu...never mind that the research is a deliberate attempt to make a human-transmissable version of the stuff. Good lord.
... Others that beat MI2: The Andromeda Strain and The Stand.
Oh, you said Superflu, my bad!
I hope those escaped hybrid killer bees don't come back and mix it up with the super-flu, then go back out and attack people.
Microsoft CTO indicates that no one has ever gotten a strain of the flu until after the vacine was created. In fact, he can only think of one case where someone got the flu before the vacine was created.
--- Liberty in our Lifetime
I must agree!
The possiblility of creating a pandemic using geneticly engineered virii is too great to actually be creating this virii in labs. The technology to create these demons is far easier than that for stopping or controlling a pandemic.
Fortunately, advanced supercomputers can be used to create models of virii and their effects on cells.
It is unethical to create a mutagenic virus for study purposes when the same research can be done through computer models. Especially when the virus is influenza, smallpox, or polio. Influenze because it mutates and spreads quickly. Smallpox because it spreads so easily and has been removed from humanity and polio because it is about to be removed from humanity.
Plus we don't yet have the ability to control the people who would use biological weapons to murder millions of people for political reasons (or use religion as a cover for their psychopathic political ambitions, like Osama Bin Laden).
"Free nations don't develop WMD!"
So, is he saying that the United States isn't free or that he is an idiot? Since Herr Ashcroft hasn't taken me away yet, I'll assume the latter.
But still, this is a stupid idea. Its probably just another scheme to enrich the HMOs like the medicare plan.
Most of the /. crowd is too damn young to remember the major pandemics...
Everyone is too young for something. That's why it's important to develop a sense of history and to be able to trust historical records. (And to develop to abilities to tell when the records are wrong or biased).
I recommend Richard Preston's books on epidemics for a good and exciting introduction to this important topic. I'm amazed that this is not covered in schools in more detail, but at least students are learning how to get educated even if they are currently being filled with information that is of secondary importance (like Algebra).
Anyway, thank you for taking the time to contribute your grandfather's experience with the Slashdot community.
FUD, pure and simple. HIV is only spread by direct contact. If you sneezed directly into someones open wound, you MIGHT be able to infect them. You also might be able to hit the Lotto. Your odds are about the same.
There are many other dangerous dieases out there. See the MMWR (Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report) We used to get a flyer every week in the ER telling us whats killing people this week, and what to look out for
Save a Life. Donate Blood. Please.
Was I the only guy who expanded CDC to "Cult of the Dead Cow"?
Now THAT would be what I call cross-disciplinary!
It was Matt Frewer and his warhead-on-a-scooter.
Superflu is being brewed in the lab
17:42 26 February 04
Exclusive from New Scientist Print Edition. Subscribe and get 4 free issues.
After the worldwide alarm triggered by 2003's SARS outbreak, it might seem reckless to set about creating a potentially far more devastating virus in the lab. But that is what is being attempted by some researchers, who argue that the dangers of doing nothing are even greater.
We already know that the H5N1 bird flu virus ravaging poultry farms in Asia can be lethal on the rare occasions when it infects people. Now a team is tinkering with its genes to see if it can turn into a strain capable of spreading from human to human. If they manage this, they will have created a virus that could kill tens of millions if it got out of the lab.
Many researchers say experiments like this are needed to answer crucial questions. Why can a few animal flu viruses infect humans? What makes the viruses deadly? And what changes, if any, would enable them to spread from person to person and cause pandemics that might prove far worse than that of 1918? Once we know this, they argue, we will be better prepared for whatever nature throws at us.
Others disagree. It is not clear how much we can learn from such work, they argue. And they point out that it is already possible to create a vaccine by other means. The work is simply too dangerous, they say.
"I'm getting bombarded from both sides," says Ronald Atlas, head of the Center for Deterrence of Biowarfare and Bioterrorism at the University of Louisville in Kentucky. "Some say that this sort of research is dangerous because of the risk of the virus escaping or being using in bioterrorism, and others that it's good science."
Rodents and monkeys
Some researchers refuse to discuss their plans. But Jacqueline Katz at the US Centers for Disease Control (CDC) in Atlanta, Georgia, told New Scientist her team is already tweaking the genes of the H5N1 bird flu virus that killed several people in Hong Kong in 1997, and those of the human flu virus H3N2.
She is testing the ability of the new viruses to spread by air and cause disease in ferrets, whose susceptibility to flu appears to be remarkably similar to ours.
Albert Osterhaus of Erasmus University in Rotterdam in the Netherlands plans to test altered viruses on rodents and macaque monkeys. Other groups are also considering similar experiments, he says.
If such work were to show that H5N1 could cause a human pandemic, everything that is happening in Asia would be even more alarming, Osterhaus argues. If, on the other hand, it failed to transform H5N1 into a highly contagious human virus, we could relax. "It becomes a veterinary health problem, not a public health problem. That would be an enormous relief."
Cell cultures
But Wendy Barclay of the University of Reading in the UK, who "thought long and hard" about trying to create a pandemic flu virus before abandoning the idea, disagrees. "If you get a negative, how can you be sure that you have tested every option?" she says. Health authorities would still have to take the precaution of creating H5N1 vaccines.
Barclay concedes, however, that creating a virus that spreads in people might tell us how real the threat is. For instance, do you need one mutation for H5N1 to adapt to humans, or dozens?
Osterhaus is more optimistic. "Within the next decade, the whole thing will be solved," he says. "We will know the rules." In other words, once experts understand what the genetic sequence of any flu virus means, they could predict which animals it can infect, how severe it will be, and how easily it will spread.
Yet any new viruses could only be tested in human cell cultures or in animals, not on people. None of these methods exactly reflects how flu behaves in humans. This has led some flu experts to argue that attempts to create a pandemic virus should be put on hold until there is agreement on the best way of testing it.
Mix flu genes
Mount Dragon, by Lincoln Child & Douglas Preston, where they are hard at work on X-FLU ... very cool book - two thumbs up, as well as most of their other books.
I'm not sure what the secret to success is, but the secret to failure lies in trying to please everyone -Bill Cosby
Demon in the Freezer and The Bioweaponeers, both by Richard Preston. The bioweaponeers - which talks about bioweapons research in the former USSR - is particularly terrifying.
Please tell me the crack about algebra was a joke. It must be.
We need to teach Statistics in school, but I fear that the same mob that runs the lottery also runs the school. The'll never tell the kids how stupid it is to bet on that lottery ticket.
"Unless the vehicles are autonomous or sealed, the weapons ought to be effective."
I prefer my vehicles autonomous or sealed, just like my republics.
Don't blame Durga. I voted for Centauri.
Tom Cruise can save us, but at what cost?
I mean, think about it. If Tom Cruise's stated price for saving the world was that we let him make Battlefield Earth 2 , maybe it just isn't worth it.
Tom Cruise wants you to help save the world... with scientology!
"We have to go forth and crush every world view that doesn't believe in tolerance and free speech." - David Brin
Conspiracy theorists, think Mission Impossible 2
Wh47 d1d j00 541, 31337 15n't t3h r0xor5 ne m0r3???
Lets hope you don't find yourself in 'Deliverance' as a result!
specifically CDC modification
Am I the only one who read this, and thought that the Cult of the Dead Cow were doing the modifications of the (viruses|virii)??
You cant make anything foolproof, they'll only invent better fools.
Mod Parent Up +1 Funny
I would be at least as concerned (okay, more concerned) about the GMO's that have already infiltrated your food supply and threaten to contaminate non-GMO crop strains through vertical and horizontal gene transfer. The bad bugs might get you, but the bad plants ARE getting you. If you want to worry about bad bugs, please include those that attack NON-humanoids too. For example, a cleverly devised wheat rust spread world-wide would probably have a longer reach than small pox because you can't quarrantine fields of grain. Or how about the smut that causes St Elmo's Fire, a malady that resulted in thousands being burned as witches......the list is endless. Someone stop the dirty bastards.
I'm not just being paranoid- I've seen the data.
There has been a quote from Jurassic Park that has always stuck with me. "...but your scientists were so preoccupied with whether or not they could, they didn't stop to think if they should."
So the big bad secret government asses lost control of their little SARS scam. (Toronto wasn't in the plans, was it? You fools. Of course you don't have control. You never did. You never will. But don't let me stop you from telling those sweet lies to yourselves. .
Avian flu, my ass. Thanks for making all the chickens sick. You twits. I'm sure you have that all under control, do you? All going according to plans, eh? Get everybody all scared so that they won't worry so much about whatever idiocy is due around election time. Make sure they'll all welcome whatever insane measures Bush/Kerry/Fearless Leader will implement. Mercury laden, prosecution-protected Eli Lilly vaccines administered at gun-point, while plans for the Draft kick into high gear. All the while strictly trying to ignore the countdown to the Rain of the Comets due, well, right about now actually. But that's okay, cuz coke-head Bush can duck into a hollowed-out mountain in the hopes of riding out the whole affair. (The man has a sponge for a brain. He could give BSE to a cow!)
Yeah. I can't WAIT to see what you silly twits have planned.
Jeezus. Why can't you just get over your pathetic fears, get out into the world and start living instead of trying to control the heck out of everything? The big shift doesn't have to be a frickin' nightmare military lock-down, you know! The world may bite from time to time, but some of us have these things called, 'Spines'.
Sheesh. Kids.
-FL
growing of new flu strains.
Well virii are not the ideal mode of transmission, I woudl think that at spre-forming bacterium woudl be ideal. They are hardy, resisting tempreatures (high and low) dessication, radiation, hell some survive the autoclave. That is until they find the right enviorment, say your throat. The only problem is that strain improvement and engineering are not easy tasks, they require talented scientists with really good equiptment to carry out sucessfully, not some nut in a cave with a bowl and a pistal(sp?). As for viruses that kill their host being "unsucessful" that is not entirely true, most viruses have a resivor where they live without killing the host, but are dangerious to other hosts. For instance say your cold-sore (herpies simplex) kills your dog, just because it killed your dog doesnt make it unsuccessful, it's just a side-effect of the particular genes expressed that maybe have no (pathogenic) effect on you but are detrimental to your canine friend.
"Biological agents mutate and get stronger through the standard darwinian evolutionary processes" -- wrong. The evolutionary incentive is for germs to get better at spreading, but weaker in symptoms. The reason being (1) superbugs kill off the susceptible, forcing rapid evolution of immunity (2) the kill rate can outrun the infection rate, and "burn out" the disease's spread (3) people actively quarantine a scary disease.
That's why, evolutionarily speaking, SARS has been a flop while the common cold continues to thrive.
Linux will save us!
But, if 'Outbreak' does occur or 'Mission Impossible 2' then I'm getting out of the city and heading to the hills!
Just install Norton Antivirus, and you'll be fine... well if you don't want the 30-day trial, you can use AVG =P
Malaria = bacterium (plasmodium faciparum sp.
IIRC that's a protozoan, not a bacterium.
But it's not a virus either, so your point stands.
The best biological weapons are the ones that act fast and have cures. You want your own troops to be immune while the disease incapacitates the enemy.
The best biological weapons are non-lethal. They make the enemy so sick they can't fight, while your healthy troops move in and sieze power, set up friendly governments, etc. After the New Boss(tm) is firmly in place, everyone gets well (except for a few infants, elderly and immunocompromised folk -- casualties of war) and there's no bad press. War without massive casualties, without destruction of property/infrastructure, but with the same result, i.e. friendly government installed.
Yeah, the conspiracy theorists' favorite diseases (HIV, Ebola, CJD) are lousy choices for germ warfare agents. They're too slow and too lethal, and they don't have cures.
Influenza is actually a very good choice for a biological warfare agent. It acts fast, it's rapidly and easily transmitted, there are vaccines available, and it's usually non-lethal.
About this Ninja who went to eat at a diner...some kid dropped a spoon and he killed the whole town.
(You uneducated moron.)
Yes, but there's other variables than just the mean monetary payoff. (Which is usually negative.) For one, some people get an inherent pleasure out of gambling itself. Secondly, some people value "a million dollars" more than a million times the value of "one dollar." Which isn't entirely idiotic, because cash value and true value (or utility) are not the same thing. (A sack full of 500 pennies is not worth the same amount as a five dollar bill.)
"Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity." -- Hanlon's Razor
> to create models of virii and their effects on
> cells.
Not even close! You can only simulate something on a computer that has a model in the first place. That's what this research is about in the first place. Computers do not create models. Computers are driven by models. Humans create those models that drive computers. Humans create those models by validating hypothetical, human-contrived, models against empirical observation (such as come from creating pathological viruses and seeing how deadly they are). Models only predict when they are validated empirically and are only improved by empirically comparison: reality is the only truth.
There are no sufficiently accurate cell or virus models in existence that could begin to realistic assess if a virus can or can not be pathogenic from first-principles (DNA mutations, etc.). Trusting models that exist today to human lives is nearly as dangerous as playing with a pathogenic virus as described in the article. That's how crude they are! It will be decades before sufficiently better models exist. It will only be through these types of experiments that such a model could ever exist.
Currently biologist have the raw data for genomics (DNA sequences) based on the DNA a handful of people out of 5 billion(!), but the actual biological implications of a model aren't simply defined by genomics. The next layer is proteomics (how proteins from some arbitrary source mRNA are created, folded and embued with biological activity), and then the next layer, the total black hole of the hour: enzyme and metabolic "circuits" in N-space. Most of the knowledge of proteomics and enzyme pathways is utterly primitive at best. Actually predicting phenomena theoretically from first principles (which is what you are suggesting can be done in lieu of empirical testing) is utterly impossible now and probably will remain so for many decades to come in the best case scenario.
To put this in perspective: imagine you are a 19th century scientist or engineer with fresh knowledge of Maxwell's and Newton, but no concept of Quantum Mechanics (1920s) or Linear Circuit Theory (1930s) or Semiconductor Physics (1940s) or Computer Design (1950s) or Integrated Circuits (1960s) or Microprocessors (1970s) or OO Software Design (1980s) or the Web (1990s).
Now imagine someone says tells: "Hey you (Mr. 19th Century), you can predict how this Athlon microprocessor can be used by two people on opposite sides of the world to communicate instantly over a network, just based on what you know now and extrapolating from first principles..." You might have an inkling that it might somehow be possible given telegraphy and telephones at the time, but whatever you came up with would never predict spam, porn, identify theft or other pathological/pathogenic outcomes.
Right now, molecular biology is at a similar point to where electronic/electric technology was in the late 19th century. Most stuff is done empirically. Biological procedure is a craft and art as much as a science and process. Theories and systematic procedures exist but they tend to be valid "one-off" only. Automation in biology is almost out of the 18th century rather than the 21st century.
There is an ethical question certainly, but it's not black-and-white, and computers can not be substituted for taking certain risks. The only question is one of risk-assessment and of ethics given those risks.
No, the height of stupidity is feeding livestock antibiotics to insure we breed stronger bacterium and viruses. There's a reason viamycin restistant strep has been cropping up -- indiscrimnant use of antibiotics.
Question: Has anyone considered what happens when a wild virus comes in contact with a vacine that was made from enhanced virals?
Answer: The wild virus eventually evolves takes on the attributes of the enhanced virus plus new traits to give the wild virus immunity.
You say things that offend me and I can deal with it. Can you?
Those pushy people who pounce on you in the mall parking lot are the terrorists, but they don't even know it.Read more.
The Uncoveror: It's the real news.
I'd sure take my cues on world affairs and the dangers of technology from movies like Mission Impossible 2.
Computer models dont mean shit if you can't test them against real viruses occasionally. If you never do real testing you will never know where your model is wrong. You can either let researchers work and learn how to make and stop GE viruses or you can hide your head in the sand until a crackpot gets ahold of it and catches the world unprepared.
Give it a look at:
Canada's Pandemic Flu Plan
Thank you for your long and detailed reply.
Sorry about the ambiguity between 'creating' and 'running' computer models.
Electronics people often hear of the advances in biology and assume that the same conditions exist between the two disciplines. But electronics is entirely self-created while biology is observation and experimentation.
Thanks for setting us straight.
I only know anything about it because I've had my feet deep in both fields: computers/electronics and biotechnology/biology. The core heuristic of human thought is usually extrapolation of the familiar. :-)
Was there an advance that I missed?
"Do not drill any holes in your cat - it will not like it."
-- Nick Davies