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10 Linux Predictions For 2002
Weedstock writes: "In an article on LinuxWorld, Joe Barr is once again making 10 predictions about the success of Linux for the new year." The first of many sets of predictions for 2002, no doubt. And some guy named "Robin" or "Roblimo" or something like that wrote about Linux in 2003 for Newsforge.
As far as I can tell, item #4 has nothing to do with Linux directly. Unless of course you believe it's a matter of MS vs. Linux and that's it.
Methinks Linux is about creating a good operating system, not about killing Microsoft. Or did I miss something?
I say we take off and nuke the entire site from orbit. It's the only way to be sure.
I'm surprised he didn't predict that Linus Torvalds would be elected head of the UN, and linux would be installed ona satellite thus rendering us the ability to communicate to alien species.
I doubt that the CIA/FBI/NSA even uses windows XP for any sort of confidential information. Most like they're still running the nearly bug free Windows NT, or some incarnation of unix.
A rabbit in the hand is worth 4 in the cage
My wish, Macromedia apps for Linux.
Is that a list of predictions, or just a wish list?
.. but lets call it what it is.)
"let's see, kick microsoft's ass; win in court; make big money; be fFamous fForever; eat pizza"
(not that i have anything wrong with that list
Linux will continue to get destroyed by Microsoft and Linux fanboys will blame the problem on stupid users, MS marketing, and unfair trade practices. Yet, they will never realize that MS never cried when they were behind, they just made a superior product and continue to make superior products. Whining about "The Man" keeping you down won't do anything about it.
Ok, can anyone explain what this guy meant by loosening of Microsoft licensing?
As far as I can tell, one wave which Linux could ride is the tide of greater restrictions of the Microsoft license, like the XP configuration dependent "activation" concept. Swap your video card, loose your OS license!
Bob-
The Ludwig von Mises Institute. The reasoning individuals economics
1. Tux will fly
To this day flightless like other penguins, Linux mascot Tux will shake the world by flying into the Eiffel Tower, prompting a renewal of the 'war on terrorism'.
2. Slashdot will be free of trolls
CmdrTaco will utter the regexp to end all regexps, and the lameness filter will finally work. Forever.
3. RMS installs Windows
RMS, leader of the Free World, will renounce GNU purity and follow the temptations of Microsoft by installing Windows 2.0. From the horses mouth: "Freeware like GNU just doesn't cut it when stacked up against real software made by real programmers with fat wallets. It's a moral choice really - the corporations deserve our dollars. Freedom shmeedom."
4. There is no prediction 4.
Yours Sincerely, Michael.
It doesn't matter how wonderful, secure, stable and efficient Linux is--it will never take over the desktop until there are gay little wizards and paper clips talking to you, and both major GUI's can come together and standardize or one of them dies (I'd vote for Gnome biting it). The problem with Linux (really *nix in general) is that there are just too many ways to do something which overwhelms new users. I don't think it is so much just not wanting to learn something new. Also a problem is that most average users are oblivious to MS problems--they just don't hear about them, or if they do they don't know how to patch or just don't care because they think security breaches will never happen to them. Unix types are power users. We want everything customized how we want it to a T. Most users just don't care. If they can get their email--great. Just "point and click."
As for business--I see continued growth. With the addition of things like stateful firewalls and journaling filesystems, more business are going to be installing it in more critical applications.
I think you'll see this happen more than once, in some form or fashion; someone will kick W2k or XP out of the datacenter, and it'll be a high-profile linux win.
BUT: I don't see it as a linux win. It'll be a Red Hat win, or an IBM win (or Suse, or Debian, whatever, I'm not playing favorites here). Linux will not, per se, win the day. The services and "value adds" and all that crap will be what gets written about; the pundits (read: ZDNet) will talk about how so-and-so (Red Hat, IBM, whomever) sent in armies of consultants, promised to tailor things to their hardware, etc etc. In other words they'll downplay Linux.
It'll be a win, but everyone (most of all MS) will try to convince the world that it was a different game.
ZOMG I WOULD LOVE TO KNOW ABOUT YOUR FEELINGS ON MACINTOSH VERSUS WINDOWS, VI VERSUS EMACS, AND HOW YOU'RE NOT A DORK
Computers will become faster!
And will have more RAM!
Linux will continue to develop!
etc... What would we do without this sage guidance?
sic transit gloria mundi
I really don't think that Microsoft discontinuing support for old versions of Windows will make anyone switch to Linux.
When was the last time you called up MS for tech support for Windows? Most people just don't care, or are even aware MS will provide any tech support at all.
I don't anticipate a large exodus to Linux when MS stops providing support. There's no reason at all to think that people will move to and learn a new *operating system* that doesn't provide them anything new over Windows 98 with no official support.
Everyone has been predicting that Linux will explode any minute now for *years*. This won't make it happen any sooner. Fact is, Linux doesn't provide anything over Windows for the vast majority of people, and MS has massive marketing muscle. Linux isn't poised to overcome that at all. Linux will need a ton of marketing money, and do something WINDOWS DOESN'T.
As much as people make fun of MS never innovating anything, everything I see in Linux development is meant to bring its functionality in line with Windows. If I see anything in Linux that enables me to do more than Windows, and do it with more stability (sorry, in my experience, Linux with X gives a much more unstable environment than 2k or XP), I'll give it another try.
For the moment, for me, it's XP on me desktop, 2k on my laptop, and OpenBSD on my server.
from 0.24% to 0.48% :)
Seriously, this may sound funny, but heck, if amiga would have 0.05% TODAY it would mean more machines out there then all of the machines put together back in the early 90s.
Even 0.1% of the market IS a market, I'm not in marketting but with the number of computers out there, if you can create some killer app for that 0.1%, I'm sure you can get under the spot light pretty easily.
--- Metamoderating abusive downgraders since my 300th post.
Microsoft will try to find some way to stop the rollout of linux on PS2's as this could potentially be one of the biggest breaks linux could have as a home user OS.
"The United States has no right, no desire, and no intention to impose our form of government on anyone else." - Bush 05
Having worked with a number of businesses before, I know that upgrading to Windows XP will come automatically to 99% of the general population. I used to work for a company whos programs worked under DOS/Win96/Win98. We'd get calls from companies that used our software and would say "I just upgraded to Windows 2000 and now your software doesn't work." That's right. I'd always ask, what else are you using the system for? "Nothing, just your stuff." Well, then, why are you upgrading to an uncompatible system? Time and again, it was the same story. In another year, it'll be the same again. Users calling in to say their programs won't run under Windows XP. So why upgrade? Their dealer told them to. They'd rather upgrade to a new $10,000 system then stay with something that worked. Also, 99% haven't even heard of Linux and the people I mention it to refuse to switch over (instead of getting a newer Windows version)because they don't want to re-learn their system. In short, Linux has a long, uphill road to walk before challenging Microsoft. People just aren't informed.
This should be under "It's funny. Laugh", not "Linux Business".
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:)
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Both pure Linux and dual-boot Linux/Windows machines from top-tier OEMs will start to appear in the marketplace...
Yeah, right. TheRegister might think Mandrake is easier than Windows XP to install, but actually running even this the most simplified of Linuxes is still beyond the average joe sixpack user. This is the only thing really keeping Linux from desktops at the moment - well, that and hardware/software compatibility - but I don't think it's going away any time soon.
The Microsoft/DOJ "settlement" will be tossed out by the judge as being completely one-sided
If both sides agree on it, why would the judge toss it out? As for the hold-out states, more of them will drop off once the settlement goes through and the ones that remain will be stuck with Microsoft for another year or so, eventually having a very limited impact.
A major three-letter intelligence agency will suffer a public and catastrophic breach of classified data because of exploits in Windows XP and ban its use completely
This is just hilarious. Firstly, I doubt that any "three-letter intelligence agency" (there aren't that many) are running XP at this point, or are planning to start doing so. If they're running Windows at all, they'll be on 2000, which is getting pretty secure now that it's been out for a while.
At least one global megacorp will announce a complete migration away from all Microsoft Windows platforms
This is quite likely, actually; as Linux becomes more usable and more well-known to big businesses looking to save money/improve security, some companies will undoubably decide to move. Others will decide that Linux/Mac/whatever they were on before wasn't right for them, and switch to Linux. Stuff like that happens all the time. I am thinking Joe was running low on ideas at this point
AOL will stun the world by releasing a beta AOL client for Linux
Yeah, sure. And Tux the Penguin will be replaced by Joe the Wannabe Journalist.
(I don't have a sig)
Quality, performance, value; you get only two, and you don't always get to pick.
This is almost the same article I read in 1995! Back then, I was involved in a newsgroup discussion on usability for Linux on the desktop. Most of the predictions, and complaints from back in the day are still there. Sure, there has been polish added, and some really cool features. The kernel has added lots of new features, but the only interface I have seen that came close to a real desktop has been on a freaking Mac (and I HATE macs). At some point in the future, a group will get together and put together an opensource desktop that my wife could use, and be happy with. After 6 and a half years, I won't hold my breath. Don't get me wrong, I'm already running the 2.4.17 kernel on my Thinkpad. I just wonder if predictions like "Linux desktop will appear in public places" are realistic when it is really an OS for nerds, and will continue to stay that way until a real organized effort takes place to bring about a simple desktop.
Flame answer 1: Yes, Gnome and KDE are great, but they are great for geeks, not moms. Maybe end the political crap and have them get together for a cookout at my house to bury the hatchet and take the best code from both to make KDGnome? That would kick some ass!
Flame answer 2: Because Macs are great for destop publishing, but that is not what I need to do. (and yes, I know it's BSD, and not Linux)
Flame answer 3: Sorry Linus. You have done great things here, and I have great admiration for your work. I know you are not competing with MS here. I would just like to see Linux knock the head off of Bill's empire. It get's predicted every year.
Flame answer 4: I know, I know, I have all the source code. I should write it myself, right? Well I suck at programming C, and I am man enough to admit that I could not write production level code for a project like that.
Spackler
Red Hat will continue to increase market share, sales and profits, leading the ragtag band of open source survivors out of the wilderness of the recession to the land of black bottom lines.
The Linux desktop will achieve a measurable market share on consumer machines and an even larger share of desktops for business and government. The growth will be fueled by both continuing refinement and improvement of the desktop, the growing dissatisfaction with Windows performance, security, and pricing, and the easing of Microsoft licensing restrictions.
Both pure Linux and dual-boot Linux/Windows machines from top-tier OEMs will start to appear in the marketplace as Microsoft ever so slightly begins to loosen its death-grip on the preload marketplace.
The Microsoft/DOJ "settlement" will be tossed out by the judge as being completely one-sided and the court will compromise between the demands of the holdout states and the DOJ. Microsoft will appeal the new finding to the Supreme Court since it would -- unlike the terms of the current "settlement" -- actually prevent them from continuing many of their illegal business practices.
A major three-letter intelligence agency will suffer a public and catastrophic breach of classified data because of exploits in Windows XP and ban its use completely. Previous security incidents involving the loss of classified data will also be revealed. Eyes (and heads) will roll.
At least one global megacorp will announce a complete migration away from all Microsoft Windows platforms to an interoperable mix of Unix, Mac and Linux platforms.
TechTV will add a pure Linux show to its lineup. Hey, it couldn't hurt. They laid off 135 employees in November, some say as the result of losing touch with their geek side. Leo Laporte has been Linux friendly for years, to the point of having Linus Torvalds as a guest. In 2002, Linux earns its own spot in the lineup.
AOL will stun the world by releasing a beta AOL client for Linux. This event will be marked by both howls of protest and celebration. Command-line interface (CLI) diehards will proclaim it to be the death of Linux. Most will simply acknowledge its growing popularity.
Theo de Raadt of OpenBSD fame, Arpad Gereoffy of the MPlayer project, and Brett Glass will team up to form a new PR firm called Darker Image. The concept is simple, like reverse psychology. For a fee, the team will act as advocates for your competition. Rumors have it that the dynamic trio is already in discussions with Redmond about championing the Free Software Foundation.
Just like last year, my final prediction drives home a simple point. Whether any of the previous predictions come true or not, it's going to be another banner year for GNU/Linux. It's popularity in the server, desktop, and embedded spaces will continue to grow.
SlashPh3ar +1 Insightful! bojoH4X0R +1 Funny! eliteboss +1 Informative!
"Though it's hard to beat Visual Studio for rapid application development."
l33t0r -1 Troll! bsdnut -1 Flamebait! bojoH4X0R_2 -1 Overrated!
"Except that it constrains you with heavy licensing for the end user."
h4ckerrocket +1 baaaaah! linuxd3wd +1 InMyLittleWorld!
"Which probably doesn't matter, since 90%+ of your customers already have Windows installed."
supercod-R -1 NotMyBag! CmdrTac0 -1 Heretic! superHaK -1 Blasphemy! C0deG0d -1 KarmaTorch!
Sorry about that. Sit on my hands, no more rum before posting.
Is it just me or is he (and everybody else) prediciting that linux will become a desktop os because someday (maybe) it just might come true and they don't want to miss it.
Linux is no closer to being a user-friendly, capable desktop app than it had been in the last 3 years. Try telling the 12 o'clock flashers about compiling a kernel and mounting hard drives and they will give you the "blank stare of doom".
In truth, MacOS X is what Linux needs to become if it ever wants to succed as a desktop OS for the average joe (i.e good apps, nice interface, seemless hardware support, and a good unix command line just in case).
Well, presumably anything significant that happens to Microsoft would have a profound effect on the acceptance of Linux in the marketplace. Although the article does not say this, one would think this is how it relates to Linux.
"The price of freedom is eternal vigilance." - Thomas Jefferson
which is a bit silly, really. people have been complaining about computers and hardware and software and fFrankly every aspect of their work place in general, but it usually takes a massive brick to the head to change.
when the industrial revolution hit, and the efficiency experts started moving in, people complained endlessly about not using their own special shovel to move coal and dirt and anything else. It took a fFew really pressing pencil pushers to make anything happen. this my fFriends is what will be required to make linux (or anything else) replace M$.
Are you sure you're not thinking of Alan Cox? He (Cox) had been talking about his "windows installation" for the past couple weeks or something like that in his diary.
Back in 1997 running Samba, I didn't find any problem with 'seamless integration' for my two Windows game (mostly) machines to use the Linux box as server, or for the Linux box to work perfectly well along side of the other two as a peer machine.
If I may elaborate on your point, I think you mean "seamless MS-Office integration."
It takes a serious shift of my perception to think of MS-Exchange as "email". It's an email CLIENT, one of many. So is Netscape Mail. So is elm. Elm doesn't read Netscape Mail folders (ok, maybe it does for someone who wants to take the time, but we're talking seamless here), that doesn't stop someone from using elm to "seamlessly" talk with someone in the same office using Netscape Mail.
MS-Office is a monolithic group-ware package that works (well? at all?) only with itself. As such, there never can be "seamless integration" because Microsoft doesn't want there to be.
Microsoft has won the perception battle with MS-Office. Many managers think that in order to be compatable with anyone else, they must use MS-Office, and that only runs on MS-Win.
If "we" are going to open the desktop market, "we" must change that perception. I am very, very glad to see OpenOffice, KDE-Office, and all the other suites being built. The Noosphere is being homesteaded at the office application layer, and I couldn't be happier.
BTW, my last two jobs have been in shops where the one and only reason they use MS-Win is because they are entrenched into using MS-Office.
Bob-
The Ludwig von Mises Institute. The reasoning individuals economics
What's the deal with your "fF"s? Your other posts seem to have this "problem" too. Is it your keyboard, or some sort of substance abuse problem?
In the future, Linux may have as few as 1,000 vacuum tubes will weigh only 1.5 tons.
Remember "Bring 'em on"? *sigh
AOL won't make any significant number of people move from Windows to Linux. 99% of the people on AOL are there because they don't know a lot about computers, and they don't care to. Sure, there are exceptions to the rule, but how many average AOL users could you see understanding "./configure, make, make install"?
Linux is still very much a geek OS, and since most geeks want broadband or real PPP dialup, I wouldn't see AOL making a huge dent if they did release software for Linux.
I was pretty sure that ALL of them had to do with LINUX, even if not directly...
#'s 1,2,3,6,7,8 and 10 are directly about LINUX
and #'s 4, 5 and 9 are about the competitive PC/ MS v LINUX marketplace...
though i suppose that you could argue that even though number 9, the Darker Image is about taking a shot at MS too, it's principally a good natured poke at some of the less "user friendly" members of our community....
after all guys, it IS LINUX WORLD magazine....
IMHO, i'd say that #'s 2,3 and 7 are serious blue sky
#'s 1,6 and 8 are mulligans
and that 4 and 7 are karma bets
9's a gag and
10 is probably the most accurate of them all
BTW, Joe, stay away from Theo for a while
Ten quid, she's so easy to blind. And not a word is spoken...
Similarly, a surprising number of online banking services, auction houses, etc are putting Windows-centric code on their sites, limiting site usability for many potential customers.
I'm looking forward to seeing if there's going to be a backlash against that in the coming year. When sites realize that a good chunk of users are being cut off, could we see "platform agnostic" and "Linux-friendly" become marketable buzzwords, causing sites to leap on the bandwagon and to start performing real Linux usability testing?
And if "Linux-friendly" logos, icons and similar start to appear on sites, could the alternative operating systems enjoy even more visibility as a result?
Here's my personal take on the predictions take it as you will, IANAEOTF (I Am Not An Expert On The Future)
1) Buisness will grow, it isn't hard to figure that buisness will move into the black. All the rest will fail and we're left with only the succesful corperations. Duh.
2) I see it happening slightly, although it feels that he is stating that linux will become noticable everywhere and with too much optomism. What's with "measurable market share"? isn't 0.25% measured?
3) To say that linux will be preloaded on future machines when it's been tried and failed miserably in the past years is still too optomistic. At the moment M$ has a stranglehold on that market and it's just not profitable enough to preload. Too much hassle at this moment to accomidate 0.25% of the market. Even considering that number faulty, it's still just not quite enough.
4) It just drags on and on.
5) He's just reaching for this one. I don't see microsoft products being banned compleatly. I doubt they use XP for high level stuff anyway. Remember the high security distro the NSA (I think it was the NSA) is working on? They trust in unix and it's clones just like most backend stuff. Enen M$ uses BSD for hotmail.
6) Again, a complete and utter ban of M$? Unlikly. I can see buisness warming up to linux and other unix clones for workstations and alowing employees to choose, rather than a lot of these employees secretly using linux on a separate partition from the usual windows or without support from the company.
7) doubtful with their monetary constraints and lack of market penetration. Do you get tech TV? I don't and nobody I know gets it without a satilite. If you don't reach enough people, and only about 0.25% of those people are interested, then your showw quickly bites the dust.
8) I can see this happening actually. Don't whine and complain, it's a necisary evil to get more market share.
9) Wtf? Someone please explain this to me.
10) And finally, the easiest one. Everything progresses more. It grows and more people find out and learn about linux and other unix clones. Viva la revolution.
I appologize for the repetition of the 0.25% number. It's just a number that represents the actual market share, whatever that is in reality.
WikiAfterDark.com It's a sex wiki, go now!
f you give Red Hat the market share that MS has right now, do you really think they would be as bad as MS??
Of course! Power corrupts!
Bob-
The Ludwig von Mises Institute. The reasoning individuals economics
this is more clever and makes more sense. It can be found here.
Yes, that's the niche it has found for itself in the marketplace. Of course, once capitalism goes and people no longer have the means to measure value with money, all bets are off. I dunno, 2004 maybe.
Nothing will change:
.. I know there's more)
Linux will improve. No one will care --
A third desktop will emerge and really confuse everything (KDE and Gnome being the other two
OSX will barely maintain Apple's market share and everyone will agree that it is the best OS ever.
Windows 10wnU will be released. Despite massive security flaws and a wicked licensing scheme will continue to rulle the desktops.
This
This will be true only in ISO-8859-1 (or ISO-8859-15 with Euro) world or at least 8bit simple encodings world.
For other billions of people (Chinese, Indian, Arab, and so on), Linux desktop (with XFree86, GNOME, and KDE) is far from usable for average people.
In other words, there are still remaining large market for such billions of people.
Okay, okay, I'm done trolling, I'll go read it now.
Free Java games for your phone: Tontie, Sokoban
1. Another 2.4.x kernel will be released with a bug, causing a slashdot story and a flamewar to start on how their isn't enough QA of linux distros.
2. A new stable series of debian will be released/frozen. Immediately after a new stable version of QT and/or GNOME will be released that will not be included. Corel will go bankrupt, and the remains of wordperfect for Linux and other ports will go the way of the dodo. Another company will contract/purchase these products, but will never actually release a product. Debian users, will apt-get dist-update to unstable again, lying about staying with the new stable because it's very decent.
3. Kernel 2.6.0 will be promised to be out in the summer, but in reality, will not hit prerelease stages until December.
4. My friends and I's Linux distribution will finally be released to a massive whoopdie-do from the linux community. Along with this distribution, another 3 distributions will be released and flop.
5. RedHat will finally perfect the 7.x series, only to release a new, and extremely buggy 8.x.
6. Mandrake will inexplicably move to Mandrake 9.x or even Mandrake X in an effort to continue the one-upping versioning of RedHat.
7. ATI will release binary only Linux drivers, but an effort to create an open source Radeon driver will continue. People will claim to use the opensource driver, while really using the binary driver, and making fun of nVidia's proprietary only products.
8. A twisted tape featuring a cartoon Linus and Bill Gates fighting will circulate the internet. The end of this tape will feature Gates and Linus uniting to destroy the Evil clown Steve Balmer, who enters the video shooting, "Windows might give you herpes, but the Linux cancer is fatal".
9. Corel will go bankrupt, and the remains of wordperfect for Linux and other ports will go the way of the dodo. Another company will contract/purchase these products, but will never actually release a product.
10. Borland will release C++ Builder for Linux. As Delphi and C++ shareware apps for Linux are released Linux users will make statements about trash apps. Some will move to *BSD, others will become debian users. Many Mandrake and RedHat users will buy these, say they are decent, but never really use them.
And as a bonus: Linux will move from 0.25%+ total desktop usage to 1.25%. :)
(Yes, I am lame.)
------ 24.5% slashdot pure
I just asked my signifigant other her thoughts on the topic of "linux predictions fFor 2002". her answer:
Better than sex.
man! i'm either good at brainwashing people, or i'm just awful in bed!!!
Every Linux user that doesn't feel like spending money on a real modem would love to see winmodem support under Linux. There isn't any reason why it can't be done. In fact, the term 'winmodem' is misleading. They're just software-driven modems. I, for one, would use Linux much more if they supported my Rockwell HCF chipsert modem in my PC and my ESS something or another in my laptop.
Job? I don't have time to get a job! Who will sit around and bitch about being broke and unemployed then?
I feel comfortable cumming in your mother-in-law.
I say...
1. Business as usual. Linux will continue slowly replace Unix servers. Windows will continue to sit on the desktop. Talk of a mainstream linux desktop will continue for several more years.
1. More samba shares on the local networks at work as Comm Tech managers get bigger bonuses for saving oodles of Microsoft license dollars.
/. bandwidth bills is to replace all content with one great big banner add on /. .... and when that does not work they will be bought out by x10.com -- and www.slashdot.org will resolve to 10 popup windows for mini cams.
2. More IIS web servers replaced with Linux and apache as Web Group managers get bigger bonuses for saving oodles of Microsoft license dollars.
3. More Tomcat implementations as said managers save money on the Weblogic license dollars.
4. More failed companies who think they can "cash in" on this Linux thing....
5. The people that started in the garages and basements....(went to work for a few months at various linux startups and got bitter when the stock dipped below a dollar...and they got layed off...) --> will return to the garages and basements...God bless them.
6, VA decides that the only way to pay the
7. The end of world peace.
(+1 Funny) only if I laugh out loud.
I've been trying for half an hour to read Joe Barr's article. I can't because it's Slashdotted. He's a Texan over in the Austin/San Antonio area. I'm a Texan here in Houston and native in that I grew up around Tyler, Tx. Therefore unless you are a Texan I am more deserving of you and you should BACK OFF so I can read the article.
Thank you for your consideration.
</rant>
How about instead of AOL producing a client for Linux they produce an "AOLinux" (No, not Adults Only!) distro which is basically locked down and can be used to connect only to AOL and provides all the AOL client functionality.
Maybe they wouldn't even give the user root access to their system so they can't fiddle with anything.
Oooh.. a better idea, a bootable CD with the AOLinux distro that sotres user config stuff on a Windows partition so when the user wants to use the internet they stick the CD in the drive and they reboot. The first time they put in their AOL password etc and the other times it just automatically dials up when the OS boots. They wouldn't have to worry about some redneck installing stupid shit on his computer that'd break AOL because the OS would be locked down.
Maybe i've just had not enough sleep.
> Methinks Linux is about creating a good operating system, not about killing Microsoft. Or did I miss something?
Yes, you missed the fact that "creating a good operating system" and "killing Microsoft" amount to the same thing.
Sheesh, evil *and* a jerk. -- Jade
A new generation of script kiddies will be born. They might know how to stumble their way through the installation of a popular distro of Linux, but they can't surf without their prescious AOL. This generation will not be remembered, as they'll just get frustrated trying to find drivers for their eMachine and reinstall Windows.
Job? I don't have time to get a job! Who will sit around and bitch about being broke and unemployed then?
"creating a good operating system" and "killing Microsoft" amount to the same thing.
Not at all. The best doesn't always succeed. Consider BetaMax versus VHS.
The original poster made an excellent point. I would rather be *for* something than *against* something. Somewhere the Linux community took a wrong turn and started measuring Linux according to the Microsoft yardstick. This is wrong. As long as the Microsoft yardstick is used, Microsoft will always win. Let's use an objective yardstick and to hell with everyone playing the us-versus-them game.
A Government Is a Body of People, Usually Notably Ungoverned
In mid 2004 the standard 'hard drive' from the local elCheapo discount should be approx 1 TB (terrabyte).
What kind of GFLOPS are we expecting at K-mart ?
Network speeds ?
& what kind of apps will be running 'standard' on these boxes / wristwatches ?
Back in December 2000, I made a prediction that in December 2001, trade rag writers would be publishing articles making predictions for 2002. Looks like I was right. Damn I'm good!
Tired of FB/Google censorship? Visit UNCENSORED!
"Should I keep using windows98, even though microsoft doesn't support it any more, or should I switch to this lie-nucks thing that I don't understand, nobody supports it, and bob's son down the street can't fix for me?"
Hmmmm
Send lawyers, guns, and money!
You must've missed the entire boatload of people who leapt on board because of zealots, and became zealots in turn.
:) They also tend to be the first who scream, "Waah, wherez my dvd?!" after they've been spewing, "Waa, Microsoft sucks!" for years.
Usually they're found in large groups who do nothing for Linux but use it.
But, you sir, look normal and sane, if you'll follow me, I'll take you to where all the mature Linux users sit.
My wife now finds it easier to use my Linux box to:
-check web mail
-read and print doc/xls files
-surf w/o crashing browser
-use dial-up
-other business stuff.
...rather than boot up her NT box to do the same.
Now with software we use (Moz/StarOffice/KDE) being so nice, stable, & useful, the desktop is at last becoming a viable alternative for Windoze users--with just a little prompting.
To me, the interoperability with Word/Excel/Exchange is the critical thing for businesses. In 2000, this clearly did not work well at all. I think 2002 will indeed herald the year that linux will be occationally adopted as an alternative in corporate environments. Reading/printing these file formats (and protocols) is now *finally* reliable. Ximian's Exchange connector completes it for most businesses.
I don't think that the desktop not being adopted in large numbers this year was because IT managers didn't want to do it, it was because they couldn't do it.
Now they can.
" I would rather be *for* something than *against* something."
All fine and dany until someone loses an eye. You may be "for" something but have no doubt MS is "against" you. And in case you haven't noticed they play dirty. I know many people are perfectly content with turning the other cheek but don't for a second think that MS will not smack you in the other cheek with a shovel.
There is a war going on just realize that. MS is better armed, better financed, better trained, has more allies. If you are not careful you will be carpetbombed into dust.
War is necrophilia.
Joe Barr did a similar article for 2001. Here's how he did:
1. Linux Kernel 2.4 will be released, and will trounce Windows in the benchmarks
Half right. 2.4.0 was released, performance was good, but not as good as it could have been. It's gotten better since. Nobody that I know of has done comprehensive benchmarking. I'll give this one a half point.
2. MS Findings of Law overturned, Findings of Fact stand. Ordered back to lower court. DOJ loses zeal for case
Almost perfect. The Conclusions of Law stood, but the Final Judgement was overturned. Everything else was on the nose. I'll give this one a full point.
3. Consolidation and attrition of Linux companies. Fewer distributions. RedHat & VA merge. SuSE & Atipa merge.
Didn't happen. There were some mergers, but no big ones. There was much attrition, but primarily on the fringes of the Linux world, the rest of the computer industry was much harder hit attrition-wise. There are more distributions than ever. There are no superdistributions, in fact, I'd say more people realize today that RedHat != Linux than a year ago. No points.
4. KDE and GNOME continue as separate projects.
Easy point.
5. Linus stops heavy kernel hacking, focuses on community leadership.
You've got to be joking. No points.
6. One of the big five computer retailers offers a Linux boot (or dual boot) for a retail desktop machine.
Nope, didn't happen.
7. Widespread government desktop adoption of Linux
Nope, didn't happen. More servers tho.
8. Bruce Perens shakes up HP.
If it happened, it was completely behind the scenes. From out here, it looks like Compaq's pleading to be eaten had much more effect on HP's management than Bruce did. He has had some effect, and he's still there, so there's always next year. No point.
9. Linux stocks will thrive.
Ha. Hahahaha. Hahahahahaha. Seriously, they didn't do badly compared to the rest of the tech stocks, but I would hardly call it "thriving". No point.
10. Another great year for Linux
Easy point.
So, last year, he got three and a half out of ten. One was a complete giveaway (#10), and most people would say #4 was a giveaway too. Not the most impressive set of predictions.
----
Open mind, insert foot.
Anyone know what Goodyear is running for their POS machines in the retail garages? I bought new tires this week, and noticed that they had an X screensaver running. Looked like 101-key keyboards as well.
--
"Outlook not so good." That magic 8-ball knows everything! I'll ask about Exchange Server next.
I'm excited about several potentially significant projects that may have their first "stable" releases next year. Everyone knows about OpenOffice, Apache 2 and Mozilla (I'm surprised that neither article mentioned the last two). Here are a few others:
- Subversion version control rethought, could replace CVS as free software tool of choice
- E capability secure programming
- Reptile reputation-based content aggregator
I want real money idea futures for all predictions!1 and 6 maybe mulligans, but I'd call 8 more of a "gimme" ...
I've seen screenshots of an official (and not even alpha quality) official AOL client for Linux.
Given AOHell's recent decision to join the Liberty Alliance, could it be that AOL's partnership with Sun (as in Sun is the center of the Netscape iPlanet world now) has addicted AOL-TW to the need for open standards???
utter rubbish
see sig...apparently most ppl believe it to be so...
QED
BSD is for people who love UNIX. Linux is for those who hate Microsoft.
It takes a serious shift of my perception to think of MS-Exchange as "email". It's an email CLIENT, one of many. So is Netscape Mail. So is elm.
You have no idea what the fuck you are talking about.
First, there has to be a pretty GUI with nice looking fonts.
Second, printing needs to be made as easy as Win.
Third, installing programs should never mean having to edit a script file, or tracking down all libraries needed. There should be a registry-like means of keeping track of what's on a linux box. Installing needs to be as mind-numbingly simple as on Windows. Uninstalling needs to be clean too.
Fourth, full-retail apps must exist, which install and uninstall just fine without requiring various library installations.
I don't see any of this happening any time soon, so I don't see any of these predictions of Linux being embraced by the masses coming true. It's just silliness. Yes, we can say "I'm an elite geek and it's great!" But Joe Asswipe doesn't care. Joe Asswipe doesn't even know how to really use Windows, much less anything like Linux.
I wish the Linux community would be less elitist and more realistic.
"Would it kill you to put down the toilet seat?" -- Maya Angelou
As for Linux on the desktop, I have to remain skeptical of its success. If MacOS X never came about, I'd say their are definite possibilities, but now there is just too much going on besides Linux. Here are reasons why Linux is not going to succeed on the desktop anytime soon:
- Software companies are currently devoting a good chunk of resources towards updating their applications for XP, and also exploring possibilities of using new XP "features".
- .NET will also consume more software company resources that could possibly be focused towards Linux desktop software.
- Apple is going to be releasing faster, more appealing hardware along with an improving OS X. Software companies are going to get distracted into doing new Mac versions of their applications.
- A high-end multimedia explosion is about to hit the computer industry. Over the past several years, multimedia has been a joke in my opinion, but now hardware and software is actually capable of doing some useful and cool stuff. When I read about wireless IEEE-1284 (Firewire), see new media features come out like DVD-RW+, and video software that does a million things in a simple package, I don't even begin to think about Linux. Sorry.
If Linux was where it is now, two years ago, I'd say it had a good chance. Now the future is looking even more bleak. I don't like saying that, but it's the current reality. A bronze medal is still not that bad though, when you think about it...So says Red Hat's Michael Tiemann in yet another Linux in 2002 article at CNN. "There's no doubt that high-end graphics are going to be Linux-driven, as is high-end computing"
I don't think I got enough...
Mr. Barr's seventh prediction, which states:
"7. Linux in Primetime Slot
TechTV will add a pure Linux show to its lineup. Hey, it couldn't hurt. They laid off 135 employees in November, some say as the result of losing touch with their geek side. Leo Laporte has been Linux friendly for years, to the point of having Linus Torvalds as a guest. In 2002, Linux earns its own spot in the lineup.", does not even make sense as a Linux prediction. How does a television program have anything to do with the success of Linux as a reliable Operating System? Absolutely nothing.
Also, Mr. Barr's fourth prediction which states:
"4. Landmark antitrust case will drag on
The Microsoft/DOJ "settlement" will be tossed out by the judge as being completely one-sided and the court will compromise between the demands of the holdout states and the DOJ. Microsoft will appeal the new finding to the Supreme Court since it would -- unlike the terms of the current "settlement" -- actually prevent them from continuing many of their illegal business practices." has nothing to do with Linux at all, how would this qualify as a prediction for Linux. Linux is not a Microsoft product, and will never be, so how does microsoft have any success of the Linux operating system. It has nothing to do with Linux at all. Otherwise, I find his predictions to be possibly accurate, maybe 30-40%?
1. Debian installs will continue suck.
2. Redhat will again piss^H^H^Hass on the FHS.
3. ELX, while interesting, will fail for lack of grammatical competence.
4. A US senator will be photographed sucking Bill Gate's dick.
5. Dmitry will be sentenced to 25 years for saying "air-fay use-aye" in public.
6. Balmer will claim that Bin Laden uses linux.
7. Bin Laden will say "yeah, I'm evil, not stupid" in 666 languages.
8. Bush and Gore will continue to use windows.
9. Politicians will sell our kids to the highest bidder.
10. Debian updates rule, natch'.
So it's going underwater?
Got friends?
Theo de Raadt of OpenBSD fame, Arpad Gereoffy of the MPlayer project, and Brett Glass will team up to form a new PR firm called Darker Image. The concept is simple, like reverse psychology. For a fee, the team will act as advocates for your competition. Rumors have it that the dynamic trio is already in discussions with Redmond about championing the Free Software Foundation.
What is this? Is this an in-joke I'm not privy to? What's the story?
Software Wars
The linux desktop is going nowhere fast, and for most of these projections to come true there would have to be a mass migration to the linux desktop which will not happen. Why would any corp pick linux for its desktop over XP or OSX? They are both as stable as the linux desktop at this point.
OEMS are stepping away from the linux desktop not towards it, so you will not be seeing "dual boots". The support infrastucture is just not there. You think manus are going to support two desktop OS's and walk newbies through upgrading their kernel because of a security issue?? Think again.
I predict a slight gain in web server share, followed by another realization, that yes the linux desktop is still truly for geeks who do not need compatability with the rest of the world.
Lastly as far as servers go linux may make a good web or db server, but its really really lacking for a directory service and a email/collab server ala exchange. I look back at the NT 4 domain model, and it wasn't great, but its better than anything in the linux camp. And now with AD you have highly scalable enterprise ready directory services and no way to truly integrate linux. I hate to sound all doom and gloom but the linux community needs to wake up and smell the coffee. Its time to grow up and offer the features corporation want or go home.
You put your right foot in, you pull your right foot out.
;)
You put your right foot in and you shake it all about.
You do the HOKEY POKEY and you turn yourself around.
THAT'S what it's all about.
~~ Sorry, couldn't help myself after reading this guy's (umm, what was it he called it?) ten shots in the dark
I can see it now, he put all these predictions everyone likes to talk about up on a wall, then threw 10 darts at them and the ones he hit -- well, you get the idea
Ummm...
I use both.
The linux decision was more expediency-driven than hate-driven.
"Reactionaries must be deprived of the right to voice their opinions; only the people have that right." - Mao
Developers!
(bump bump, grind grind)
Developers!
(wiggle wiggle shake shake)
Developers!
(oooh yeah!)
Developers!
"Reactionaries must be deprived of the right to voice their opinions; only the people have that right." - Mao
1. MS Exchange is a groupware and/or e-mail server, not an e-mail client.
2. Office is a productivity suite, not a groupware suite. A groupware suite is a suite of applications that works in conjunction with a server to enable email, calendaring and collaborative workflow. Such applications are offered by Novell, Lotus and MS.
While it may be the case that the only reason most offices use MS products is because of the entrenchment in MS-Office, it is definitely the case that most businesses use MS because monkeys could be trained to use it.
If you doubt this, just remember - they taught you to use it.
-------
I don't have a solution, but I certainly admire the problem.
All fine and dany until someone loses an eye. You may be "for" something but have no doubt MS is "against" you.
It's possible to be "for" Linux while still keeping a defensive posture against Windoze I wasn't arguing against ignoring Microsoft. Not at all. What I am arguing against is making Linux nothing more than "NotWindowsOS".
I find it sad that there are people using Linux for no other reason than that it isn't Windows. With that kind of attitude Linux will end up being nothing more than a boot loader for WINE.
It's one reason I switched over to FreeBSD as my primary OS: I get a greater sense (right or wrong) that people work on FreeBSD to make it the best OS possible. This of course is not the attitude of most contributors to Linux, GNU, distros and friends, but you would never know it reading Slashdot.
A Government Is a Body of People, Usually Notably Ungoverned
This of course is not the attitude of most contributors to Linux, GNU, distros and friends...
Erk, bad wording. I meant to mean that the dominant attitude of Linux, GNU and all the distros is NOT to beat Windows, but to make the best OS possible. The way I said made it seem the opposite. My mistake. Carry on...
A Government Is a Body of People, Usually Notably Ungoverned
Thanks Publicus, that makes sense.
Of course, as others here have said, I don't expect much change in shipping rates because of the change in bundling rules, MS will simply find another way to make sure that 99.999% of machines ship with the Latest Windows.
Bob-
The Ludwig von Mises Institute. The reasoning individuals economics
Someone with money will finally apply AOL mid 90's marketing tactics with an easy install, fully featured 'comfort' version to a major linux distro. You want market penetration, this is it... otherwise why would the aversge user switch from Windows XX that came with their box in the first place. Be smart, throw money... some company out there has to have the balls to do this.
Sorry, A.C., not for me. I don't like having to wear earplugs just to drink, and yell to have a conversation.
The latest fad in Tokyo "Living Bars" is very interesting, though. It reminds me of Spider Robinson's comments about Calahan's, "It was lit up like someone's livingroom, since people who like to drink in caves are unstable."
Fact is, I don't drink enough to make a good Tokyo-ite.
Bob-
The Ludwig von Mises Institute. The reasoning individuals economics
They taught me by my having used MS software since Dos1.0. Ease of use counts in software presentation, especially to the non-technical. And I will not fault Microsofts efforts to make consistant interfaces, buttons that mean the same thing put in the same places, and the like.
I fault Microsoft quality and stability all day long, and I will gladly sneer at the attitudes which reject anything but Microsoft for erroneous or simplistic (inertia) reasons.
Bob-
The Ludwig von Mises Institute. The reasoning individuals economics
on 4, it will not be a US Senator. They will catch either Ashcroft or Bush doing him.
I think the biggest problems facing linux are same problems that plauged Apple and Commodore. It is hard to take linux seriously because of the politics envolved, often scaring "serious" business people away from the platform. Linux is not being touted as a great OS, but as a collection of "utilities". When linux users talk about linux they don't talk much about the OS, only how it can "beat" M$ Windows. They also throw in a lot of talk about KDE, Gnome, things of this sort. It does not sell well to business types. They are not interested in the newest flash and you can never get home users to use it if business does not bite (this is true about 80% of the time).
The way this ties in to a company like Commodore was it always tried to sell a computer like the Amiga for qualities it was not even known for. When I heard of Linux years ago it was touted as a great experimental Unix that was not Unix for the PC. Now it is a M$ Windows clone, something it will never sell well as.
I think the emphasis on Linux should be like the approach IBM is trying but failing to do because of lack of support. IBM usually makes me squirm but in this case they are dead on; make Linux a serious, but inexpensive, and easy to maintain enterprise level OS that can be bought for a few dollars. Forget Gnome, and forget the desktop, those are just icing for later. The average user is not anamored with a platform with something they don't even use at work, and to get it to the work place you must make it apeal to the logical minded business man who has a job to get on.
With all that flame away!
Ron Stoddard
Hell, why not, they open sourced their web server and it's one of the best around (IMO, better than Apache).
This is some guys wishlist, it looks more like something from a movie than real life.
I would change "10 Linux Predictions For 2002" to "10 NewOS Predictions For the next ten years". No way all the stuff this guy is thinking of will happen in just one year, if it was possible why didn't it happen last year ?!
The replacement of Windows/M$ is something to really happen in (my guess) ten years or so.
It probably won't be Linux because by the time Bill G. is broke linux will be 15 to 20 years old. Something completly new will emerge, mostly because of the standard PC as we all know and love will be replaced by new systems (Think: clockless processors, nanotechnology etc, etc) bacause the PC is full of workarounds for errors made in it's first basic design. (XMS,EMS,Y2K-bug)
We'll have to see in 15 years or so. The most important reason for all this taking so long is something the author of the article completly forgot: People don't like/are affraid of change.
heh heh heh.
Given this guy's track record from last year's predictions (no better than a coin toss - by his own admission) was it really worth giving /. space to this?
Any jerk can make predictions.
The problem in a market with networking effects is that an unsuccessful product is not good at all.
Only the open-source nature of Linux made it happen and somewhat outweigthed the big disadvantages like lack of software and drivers in the past.
While there are still a couple of blank spots (like AutoCAD, games or WinModems) the mainstream business hard- and software is there.
As soon as Wine is ready for primetime (always remember Win98 compatibility is enough, the Win32 API is *NOT* a moving target) Linux will truely take off on the desktop, too.
What allies do they have?
Everybody hates MS, now after MS started a war with Sony, there are not many companies left that a friends with Microsoft.
I also don't think that they can even remotely match the open-source community in development-capacities.
The OS-community wrote almost all drivers itself, while Microsoft is dependent on the hardware manufacturer to do that.
What the fuck is this guy smoking? Like so many others have said this ought to be 10 pipe dreams for 2002. Not one thing he said made much sense at all and in general sounds like a half baked article he came up with at 6am to meet a 7am deadline.
1.) Purple twinky induced fantasy.
2.) Yet more fantasy, this time assuming users of Linux GUIs will be able to paste text between different applications written by different people. Back when there was growing dissatisfaction about IBM's licensing yet they are still the biggest computer company ever.
3.) This has been said for the past three years and has yet to happen. Why? Apps developed to scratch an itch are often not too broad in scope and have little intention of starting a paradigm. Apps intended to replace closed source counterparts rarely if ever achieve said couterpart's functionality. You end up with a system that doesn't talk to itself with a quarter of the features you could get for paying for something.
4.) People woken up from being cryogenically frozen for the past year could fucking tell you this.
5.) Right. Do you know what sort of systems REALLY classified data is stored on? Probably not. Three letter agencies don't exactly order their super secret computer systems from Dell with Windows 98 installed on them.
6.) No. That is just retarded. Unless several dozens apps somehow get ported to Linux magically this will not happen. No one is going to prepackage and OS they can't sell software for. Case in point BeOS.
7.) Maybe. Leo Laporte likes Linux but I've never heard him actually say anything he has really used it for. Wow you can replace a small handful of Windows programs with it that is sure to impress alot of people. A Linux TV show would be like a live action freshmeat.
8.) What the fuck? That is the most ridiculous thing in the entire article which in itself is notable. AOL on Linux would be like putting a vinyl interior in an Abrams tanks. It's asthetic vinyl...fitting to a fucking tank.
9.) *bong sound*
10.) see 9
I'm a loner Dottie, a Rebel.
Another factor hindering Linux desktop adoption is motivation. Traditionally, open source software is developed by developers for people like themselves. They know what to do and what works for them. What's the motivation of people working on Gnome and KDE "for free"? Making a desktop usable by the Windows/Mac crowd is a labor of love, but even when doing such volunteer work, the Gnome and KDE programmers delight in customizability and complexity, not exactly a good feature in a mass market product.
But that's OK. If I wanted to use that kind of software, I would be using it. God knows, I have paid for it with every PC I bought.
If Linux is ever going to take over large chunks of the desktop market, I think it will be because of some radically and snazzy different new design that that by pure chance catches fire and becomes a fad.
Man, that is pathetic....
Prediction: Linux will be put in a CVS repository, at last. Do I ask too much? :-)
Dave Jones and Arnaldo Carvalho de Melo gave a talk on irc about it earlier this month. You can find the transcript at http://umeet.uninet.edu/umeet2001/talk/15-12-2001
Btw. I don't understand why Slashdot puts the extra space in URL... Is that supposed to protect someone from accidentally highlighting the URL and then middle clicking in mozilla and being miraculously transported to the page?
This guy obviously isn't using Debian.
linux will just keep getting better... and windows will keep getting bigger and bigger....
The same was happening for IBM WARP 4.0 Once the most usable and stable OS goes dead for users.
I expect a warming climate filled with perky uplifting curves.
kernel 2.4.18
My prediction.
I have issue with #5, that US spy secrets will be revealed due to an XP security flaw. I hate to break it to Mr. Barr, but there are NO U.S. intelligence agencies using WinXP. Nor will there be for sometime. How do I know? The government requires that the software they use be evaluated against the Common Criteria. They're not even using Win2K. I know because my company is doing the evaluation for them, and we're not done yet. So, no, they won't be using XP any time in 2002
The success of Linux depends on the success of MAC and the hopeful demise of Microsoft.
Rob makes a good point in his predictions, and it's something that I see on /. alot. Lots of people out there want to make Linux a Cathederal, with only the 7337 using it. OSS is not about that (or shouldn't be), but it seems that some people on /. ,and in the free software movement don't get that. Not everyone by any means, but just enough to make many people say that they don't want to be involved in this crap. Linux started out in the Bazaar, as did most free/open software, and I think that most of the programmers *get* this, but, I think that many others don't, and they only use Linux because it's not mainstream. So they feel special. There's nothing wrong with this, per se., but by trying to keep linux elite, they put it in the Cathederal, which is not what it's supposed to be about. I think that Linux can be mainstreamed without dumbing it down, and that it needs to be, or the bazaar loses.
Damnit, Jim, I'm an anarchist, not a F@#$!^& doctor!
I got a good laugh out of this one.
9.
Linux stocks will thrive. They've crashed to nearly nothing after their wild IPO launches, but as the technology sector of the economy rebounds from the bottom, and as weaker firms fold or merge with stronger ones, Linux stocks as a group will do well in 2001. They will regain some but not all of their IPO values, and Red Hat will lead the way with its first post-IPO profits.
He was joking, right.... ?
I agree. Anyone got the GPS coordinates for Bill's office? :-)
Money for nothing, pix for free
I don't doubt that his assertion that it is
hard to install is true for most Linux distributions, but I installed it on
Debian with no problem at all.
apt-get install gnucash installed it
with all of its dependencies, no fiddling
required on my part at all, it even showed
up on the GNOME menu.
I still don't understand why APT is not yet
the default packaging system for
most Linux distributions.
I migrated to Debian a few months ago
after years of using RPM based distributions
and I could not be happier.
Expert Java EE Consulting
I think the biggest thing that is hurting Linux is the fact that ease of hardware support and upgrades are still major issues.
What Linux desperately needs is Advanced Configuration and Power Interface (ACPI) automatic configuration support, something that a group of Linux programmers are working on right now. Imagine automatic and/or menu-driven system configuration for GNOME or KDE like you see in Windows 2000/XP, but working as part of the Linux kernel (2.6.x kernel?). This will at once lift Linux out of hacker toy status and into something that most computer users can comfortably use.
I forsee Kylix reaching critical mass this year as a tool for desktop development. This is going to lead to a huge downturn in gnome usage due to it's QT ties. The Kylix community is just about done kicking the tires and I know of quite a few serious apps about to be released built with it.
Got Code?
AOL targets a demographic of computer
illiterate people, look at their commercials,
all they brag about is how easy it is
to use AOL.
This demographic is not likely to be running
Linux at home. Linux is mostly used
by computer savvy people, which are
not likely to be using AOL, not even
on their Windows partitions.
In summary, an AOL client for Linux
would be a waste of resources and money
for AOL.
Expert Java EE Consulting
Well, regardless of highly restrictive OEM agreements, I'd say many PC makers (Dell, HP, Compaq to name a few) would be allies of MS. After all, like it or not, MS brought PCs into the realm of usability for the average idiot.
Do you really think Dell would be pulling in almost $32 BILLION dollars if we were still using Dr Dos?
The OS-community wrote almost all drivers itself, while Microsoft is dependent on the hardware manufacturer to do that.
Welcome to the joys of market share. MS and the "OS-community" are in much different positions. Since most people use Windows, if a hardware manufacturer wants it's product to sell, they have to make it work with Windows.
OS developers write their own drivers because they have to. Until they have sufficient market share to justify the expense from the manufacturer of creating another set of drivers, this will be their only option.
My two cents worth... Feel free to make change...
U.S. spy-secrets will be revealed
...
A major three-letter intelligence agency will suffer a public and catastrophic breach of classified data because of exploits in Windows XP and ban its use completely. Previous security incidents involving the loss of classified data will also be revealed. Eyes (and heads) will roll.
Uh. No. Everyone repeat after me. There's no security like physical security. There's no security like physical security
The three letter agency does not physically connect their classified systems to unclassified ones. No hacker in the world has ever gotten across the air gap between the networks. Regardless of how many terminals were running XP.
Sensitive information maybe. Tons of classified. Not a chance. They use physically disparate networks.
Well that's a bit of a stretch. "Dependendts", "Slaves" or "Prisoners" would be better descriptions, IMO.
They will betray and leave Microsoft the first time they get the chance.
After all, like it or not, MS brought PCs into the realm of usability for the average idiot.
Like it or not, but this is plain wrong.
It was asian-hardware makers which brought PCs into the price range suitable for the average person. Remember DOS? Remember high-memory? Remember IRQ/DMA problems?
Usability is secondary and always was. Otherwise the awkard DOS could have never had any chance against MacOS.
Do you really think Dell would be pulling in almost $32 BILLION dollars if we were still using Dr Dos?
Now, let's get clear about something: Microsoft always trailed the computing industry. Windows was late - very late. All other computers (Amiga, Apple and most Unix) had GUIs much earlier than Microsoft.
Yet, everybody pretends as if without Microsoft there would be no GUI. Without Microsoft, the computing industry would be a couple of years farther ahead than it is now.
Welcome to the joys of market share. MS and the "OS-community" are in much different positions. Since most people use Windows, if a hardware manufacturer wants it's product to sell, they have to make it work with Windows.
That's correct now, *BUT* on servers, most manufacturers support Linux as good as Windows and it's possible that a couple of years down the road, Microsoft will have to write drivers themselves for RAID, etc. and will support only a limited selection of server-hardware. (And this will eventually kill them)
You need an example?
Compaq dropped support for the Alpha-platform, because Linux has taken it over completely and Windows only accounted for 5% of new sales of Alpha-systems.
Within a week, Microsoft dropped support for the Alpha, too, because they just can't support it alone, they just can't.
Hell, even on ordinary x86-hardware, Windows is much more complicated to install if the hardware is not preconfigured by the PC-maker for Windows. If you build your own computer, you know what I mean.
OS developers write their own drivers because they have to. Until they have sufficient market share to justify the expense from the manufacturer of creating another set of drivers, this will be their only option.
Yes, but Microsoft does not have that option.
Once, their dominance is in danger it's just a big way down for MS without any hope for return.
Please oh please have Redhat bring back the Redneck language installation!
Wrong article. This was meant to go with the dave jones article but I guess I had too many windows open.
One point here, Compaq still supports Alpha, they're just phasing it out in favor of Itanium. We run Tru64 on Alpha's here for all of our enterprise level computing. Stuff like Oracle and other demented products. I'm _really_ trying to get management to let me even test Linux on x85, I'd love to run Linux on Alpha.
--- Think of it as evolution in action ---
Defections from MS office to OpenOffice (probably badged as StafOffice 6) will be the most significant thing to happen next year in both private business and government (national and local, around the world). Why will this happen?
1) Not running Windows on the desktop seriously limits the vendor software that can be run on a desktop.
2) Office is now as expensive, if not more so, than Windows.
3) StarOffice has a big name (Sun) behind it, so the corporation can feel that "the CEO can call Scott".
4) If a big corporation or government starts exchanging documents in StarOffice/OpenOffice formats, their suppliers can meet this requirement without spending cash. Sun do this now.
Why, when most corporations employ loads of accountants to minimise the tax they pay, don't they put any effort into reducing their Microsoft Tax bills?
Dunstan
The last scintilla of doubt just rode out of town
I have used and so has over ten thousand people that bought an AOL connected pad from Gateway an AOL client for Linux.
And the client can be removed from that midori linux install and ran on a regular linux install.
it's just that anyone with those abilities dont WANT to run an AOL client.
Do not look at laser with remaining good eye.
You might be a Linux RedNeck if,
You're 'fixin' to install the latest version of the kernel.
You wear a Stetson when you're programming.
You have a SKOAL Can in your CD-ROM Drive.
Your root password is "Bubba".
Your outgoing FAXes, using efax of course, have tobacco stains on them.
You paint Penguins on the M$ Keys on your Keyboard.
You think legal game for the Hunting Season should include M$ employees.
You belong to the Texas A&M LINUX Users Group.
You shop for computer parts at WAL-MART.
You donate money to "Save the Penguins".
You have a spit cup hanging from your computer.
You overclock Pentium IIIs to start your barbecue grill.
You close your computer case with duct tape.
Your PostgreSQL Database comprises Moonshine Recipes.
You have a DVD Burner and a GFX Card with TV-out to record HEE HAW episodes.
You hang fuzzy dice on your monitor.
You use an AOL CD-ROM as a coaster for your beer.
The bumper sticker on your truck reads "My other computer is a laptop".
You have an NRA Sticker featuring a Penguin on your computer.
You have a Daisy Duke Screen Saver.
You change your Mouse Pointer Icon from an arrow to a Penguin with a beer bottle.
Your computer is offended by your BO.
Your computer chair is a camoflauge color.
You think Bill Gates is a damn yankee because he lives up north.
You think that M$ software just "ain't right".
You have an"Elvis lives!" decal on your computer.
Your computer has a rifle rack.
You have a Penguin waving a Confederate Flag painted on your computer.
You have your computer up on blocks.
You think twisted means barbed wire.
You use Deer antlers as cable organizers.
Your joystick doubles as a Hat Rack.
You go looking in the woods when users tell you they can't find pine or elm.
You have a bumper stick that says, "Tux is my Co-pilot".
You have a sign on your fence that says, "Beware of Tux".
Credit where credit is due
Of course they still support Alpha, but they dropped support for Windows on Alpha in 1999.
I've seen the linux box a bank in Spain gives away with accounts that runs an AOL client to allow people to do Internet banking.
Whether it will ever be released as a seperate client is highly doubtful in my mind, think of the support retraining costs AOL would have to justify.
..? If your only wish is Curses, they have that, except better - you must be using a really old distro. Go to RPMFind and go search for ncurses. Err... and if your dist is that old, you also may want a good toolchain - GCC3.0.2 works nicely for me.
;)
--pi
10. USB support finally completely fixed .NET, Mono, and .GNU joined by :DUH
9. TermWM emulates visionary Windows 1.0 look and feel with curses based display
8. another UNIX worm ignored
7. USB support fixed again
6.
5. Yet another temporarily office suite released to fracture the user community into weaker camps
4. *sigh* USB patches
3. Richard Stallman declares planet open source
2. Extfs5 released
1. Dec 31, 2002 - last USB patches for the year
Sadly, no. I got into Linux because I was tired of Mac OS 8.x (crashed more than a drunk driver on an icy road-- and don't tell me about "user error" crap, I pay that much money I shouldn't have to be so clever to keep it from crashing, Linux was free and I have to *work hard* to crash that) and OS X was way off in the future. I suppose you might say I used a Mac in order to avoid Microsoft, but I've been using Apples and Macs since way before MS had any serious GUI offered. And a big part of my interest in Linux resulted from wanting a Unix environment... before that I was dependent on ISPs with shell access so I could use Pine, ircii, and develop web pages in Perl.
And I've recently tried BSD. But my installs have been less than spectacular. One machine wouldn't even reboot (although with Linux and LILO or GRUB it hums right back to life). My PPC I'm afraid to even mess with given that YDL2.1 is so dang nice (and after trying Debian-PPC and failing, I'm just not interested in wasting time to fix something that ain't broke). And the x86 laptop I tried BSD on at least installed, but lots of little things like key bindings were so different from what I was used to in Linux that I figured I was wasting my time relearning all the basics and/or spending time changing from stuff like csh to bash, etc.
Your BSD was nice, but with Linux already cruising along nicely on several machines, why bother switching? Especially when my trials run were massive failures? The *only* compelling difference is the ports systems, and even those aren't much of an improvement over simply fetching and compiling tarballs by hand. So sorry, but I don't buy your assertion at all.
I do not have a signature
Anyone know what OS all of those NCR automatic teller machines run on?
I sh*t you not- Windows 3.x. I got the immense priveledge of waiting for a grease monkey to unknot the bill dispenser on the local ATM and first thing he did was stop the user interface- underneath was the immediatly recognizable Win16 interface. Granted that at the distance I was from that tiny screen I could be wrong, but given window border styles and the instantly recognizable '-' button, I was sure it was 3.1 (at least 3.x)!
Threw me for a loop, too. If ATMs run Windows, why do they have a text-only interface??
Do you like Japanese imports?
I'd much rather see an article about how someone's predictions for 2001 fared out.
Oh, the fabulousness of making yourself sound like an authority, but not having to take any responsibility for your words.
Not since Marie-Antoinette played milkmaid has looking simple and honest been so fake and complicated.
I've started many of his articles.... but I don't think I've ever finished one.
I'll give this one a chance too...
"better ways of doing things eventually just replace the inferior things" - Linus Torvalds 09-08-07
I have noticed a very odd trend here. Many of you claim that Microsoft is " the devil " and other such terms. I agree with you, as a Mac user. But, what I don't get is this: why do you set Microsoft products as the standard to which you must aspire? Surely if your Linux is to cause a revolution, you should set the bar higher. No offense, but what new CLASS of applications has Linux spawned? Really? Has any new type of program come out? Games, Productivity suites, development tools, browsers! Heck, we get those on other systems too. No real advantage there. Create a killer app for Linux. And no, being a server, will not lure people into buying Linux as a desktop OS.
Sun makes servers. Do they have a share in the desktop? No. I have to ask myself what Linux is to become. I like to see how things will end up. As with the original Unix, Linux is plagued by too much forking. What needs to be done is U-Linux. Unified Linux that takes only the most efficient ideas and not I-made-this-so-let's-put-it-in ideas. Am I clear here? Once there is a unified force and not forking to guide the growth of Linux, I could see some real potential for it.
And secondly, create a killer-class. I mean of applications. Invent something new! Seriously, you guys say open source is new and innovative. So, rather than trying to be in MS's shadow (or rather Apple's) do something unheard of before.
Perhaps create a new paradime of interacting with computers. It's extremely annoying to see Apple (honestly, they do) as the company pushing and making tech interesting to the average consumer and well, keeping innovation alive. Beat Apple, not MS. Believe me, it's a much harder goal. But, the results would be staggering.
I did not mean microsoft had a better product, or even the first (reference Betamax vs. VHS).
Microsoft is proof that marketing works. Regardless of what you think of their methods, they started at the beginning of the PC revolution, when there were no giants, and built a very large successful company.
Do you really think MS had the clout before Win95 to force PC makers into exclusive agreements?
Mac and Amiga suffered the same fate as Betamax, a better product ruined by mismanagement.
Do you really think Dell would be pulling in almost $32 BILLION dollars if we were still using Dr Dos?
Different subjects. If Apple ruled the world, there would be no Dell, or any other pc maker. Even now, name me two successful Mac Clone builders. Again, marketing rules the world...
That's correct now, *BUT* on servers, most manufacturers support Linux as good as Windows and it's possible that a couple of years down the road, Microsoft will have to write drivers themselves for RAID, etc. and will support only a limited selection of server-hardware. (And this will eventually kill them)
However this was meant, it comes across with quite a bit of arrogance. Once again, regardless of their business practices, MS has quite a few talented developers. (Please, no complaints about stolen BSD code or security vulnerabilities) Did MS force hardware makers to create device drivers for Win95 when it came out? Nope, they rolled their own (which weren't perfect, but neither are OS drivers for linux).
As far as MS dropping Alpha support, if your company had a fringe product(by market share, NOT quality) that was about to start consuming more resources than the sales merit, what would you do?
Once, their dominance is in danger it's just a big way down for MS without any hope for return.
They were once a small company, and i doubt they would fall into oblivion just because they have a decent competitor.
Following that I posed the question that underlay what I thought was funny.
I agree, but you don't think the other linux desktop apps will (or so I got te impression from your post), and I wonder why you think one will grow as needed and the other won't.
I don't know why not, necessarily. But the ability to read and display the formats is related to being able to edit and save them, and if these multimedia thingies matter, then people will probably be using them on the web, and the browser will need to understand them. If "Mozilla is the future", it will be need to keep up with multimedia content. And that's not so colossally far a step from having video editing. LOL. indeed. good thing that my hoof-sized keyboard doesn't require opposable thumbs, or I wouldn't be able to communicate much at all. Not that it appears I'm having any success as is.Liberty uber alles.
Just like to pause for a second and point out that the majority of Betamax machines made were no better than VHS in any area and in fact held less content per tape than their VHS counterparts.
Beta didn't lose "even though it was a better product" though it's an urban legend that refuses to die. Beta lost for a most amusing reason really.
During the early days of the VCR boom Sony had very tight controls on what could be sold in Beta format. Specifically they refused to license their format for the production and sale of pornographic movies fearing that it would associate their mark with an "unsavory" element. Thus the porn makers turned to the VHS format whose owners were pretty much willing to license it for anything in order to increase their piece of the pie. Everyone see where we are going with this?
It's a simple fact that almost nobody can tell the difference between VHS and Beta when they are placed side by side provided both machines are roughly equal in quality (No top of the line Beta's vs entry level VHS players allowed) and it was true then as well.
You got a VHS format VCR in your entertainment system rack today instead of a Betamax because 20 years ago or so people thought watching porn at home instead of in a skanky theater was kind of cool and the only way you could do it was to buy a VHS model player.
Microsoft marketing is good, but it's not the reason for their success. For example Apple has and always had better marketing.
Because the majority of system costs were hardware costs, it made perfect sense to go away from a closed hardware / relatively open (Unix) platform to a open hardware/closed software (Wintel) system. With the advent of Linux that changed, now you can have it all.
Do you really think MS had the clout before Win95 to force PC makers into exclusive agreements?
Yes. For example they nearly killed Vobis for preinstalling OS/2
Mac and Amiga suffered the same fate as Betamax, a better product ruined by mismanagement.
I don't consider any closed hardware platform better than the open PC platform (even with Windows)
And when I say "better" I mean "best bang for the buck" and good investment safety.
However this was meant, it comes across with quite a bit of arrogance. Once again, regardless of their business practices, MS has quite a few talented developers. (Please, no complaints about stolen BSD code or security vulnerabilities)
Irrelevant.
As far as MS dropping Alpha support, if your company had a fringe product(by market share, NOT quality) that was about to start consuming more resources than the sales merit, what would you do?
The same. That's why closed source software is not a save investment.
They were once a small company, and i doubt they would fall into oblivion just because they have a decent competitor.
Aproximately 30% of MS-revenues come from Windows directly, 40% come from MS Office and probably another 20% from the other Win-software they sell.
About 90% of revenues are dependent on Windows. Of course they have huge amounts of money and will continue to exist as an investment-house virtually forever, but as a software-company, I have my doubts.
Hey Jack&^s, they recounted it twice and Al Loser would have lost anyway even if the clock had not be stopped by the court - just like everyone agreed to up front. What a loser.
If it were done when 'tis done, then t'were well it were done quickly... MacBeth
Maybe Linux will release itself from GPL and go to a BSD licence in 2002 - now there would be a prediction that would absolutely guarantee it raging success and universal acceptance. Except by idiot marxists like Stallings and Chomsky.
If it were done when 'tis done, then t'were well it were done quickly... MacBeth
The best doesn't always succeed
Absolutely true, but it is more complex than that. There are always differences of opinion as to what is "best" and what criteria are used to make that decision.
Consider BetaMax versus VHS
Everyone always brings that up... But Beta wasn't better than VHS in every way. Beta did have slightly better picture quality than VHS, but VHS had a larger tape capacity and slower tape speed modes that let people record more on the same tape. A lot of people were willing to sacrifice a little picture quality (especially given the fact that most TVs weren't that great back then, so you might not notice that much difference) in order to be able to fit a whole movie or a whole week's worth of their favorite soap opera on a tape.
But I personally believe the real reason Beta lost to VHS was licensing. The licensing for VHS was much cheaper and more open, so lots of companies built them and made tapes for them, so they came down in price faster. I only remember Sony and Hitachi making Beta decks, and a lot fewer choices on tapes too.
Now, Linux is more like VHS when it comes to the money -- even more so, it is essentially license fee free, whereas Microsoft is all about collecting ever more and larger license fees. So I am not sure the Beta vs. VHS comparison works. Linux is both cheaper AND better.
I do agree that spending a lot of time trying to kill Microsoft isn't necessarily productive. I personally just want to see a world where there are a number of viable competitive choices in every market. Building the best alternatives you can, and when possible giving them away for free is probably a good place to start, but I think Linux also needs to answer needs Microsoft isn't able to or interested in filling.
That being said, a certain amount of 'us-versus-them' is inevitable and checking your products against the competition isn't always bad, it is just a matter of making sure you put that to productive use rather than wheel spinning.
I'm sorry. I graft web front-ends on to other systems for a living. No matter how much I talk up the benefits of a bigger customer base, or point out that people with Macs or Linux desktops probably have more money to spend, clients say that gaining the last 5% is not worth another 20% in time. (Non-Windows = 5% of browsers. And there's variation there between IE for Mac, Netscape flavours, and various Mozillas).
We try to write standards-compliant code that will work on most platforms, but if a customer really wants some client-side voodoo, 9 times out of 10 they only want to pay for, say, IE 4, 5 and up. Maybe Netscape 4.7* if you're lucky. And PCs only. Where there's little extra effort to be compatible, we can sneak it in and everyone wins. But sometimes DHTML/Javascript/CSS/streaming media issues make it impossible to justify the cost.
Having just spent last night wrestling with xanim and mplayer to try and get streaming WMP going, I can sympathise. But in the end, we can only do what clients pay us to do.
Microsoft marketing is good, but it's not the reason for their success. For example Apple has and always had better marketing.
By better marketing are you perhaps meaning that you like Apples ads more than Microsofts? Marketing has more to do with quantity and recognition than quality. When is the last time you saw an Apple ad? I can not remember, but this morning thumbing through Linux Magazine I saw a two page M$ ad. Want more proof? Where do you want to go? (That's recognition there) Apple seems to me to try to coattail on other successful advertisement. When I see the big red X on OS X ads I think of the X Windowing system (not a good thing on Macs part). I have never mistaken an M$ ad for anything else. Oh yeah, and the little card I have in my pocket is another good marketing move for M$ (I paid real money to be an MC$E in hindsight I paid them to let me advertise and promote WINNT).
Cheers
I don't see why we are "guessing" the future. Why don't we set goals, such as getting a linux show on Techtv(so all the people watching will learn that Windows is not the 'best' out there)?? Or work towards other goals as a whole, not as one, or a guess.
Seriously! Who cares if Linux gets .001% or 100% of the desktop market? How would your universe *really* change?
Desktop share is what you're interested in if you're in love with a commercial product. I know people who were in love with OS/2 and are still heartbroken about it being crowded out of the arena.
And there was a time when the OS/2 people jumped up and down about Desktop Market Share, because they wanted OS/2 to be the ruling os, forever and ever. It lost the war to Microsoft, and now it's MS on the desktop for the most part. And all the people who loved OS/2 were shit out of luck, because the corporate software product lost its profit margin, and died.
But can that happen to Linux? Nope.
No corporate entity can die and take Linux with it. No marketing droid can claim it's unprofitable and bury it. It will *always* be there - getting better and better, gaining features, applications, and usability. No profit margin dictates it's survival. To put it simply, if I boot a Windows box, or OS/X, or BSD or anything else - Linus does not care.
Try to imagine a scenario that kills Linux. Then you'll see just how irrelevant the whole "who owns the desktop" argument is.
Weaselmancer
PS: For extra credit, try to imagine a scenario that buries Windows. Hint - imagine WINE/Transgaming being able to run MS Office 2k and all DirectX 7.0+ games. It gives new insight into why MS is diversifying like mad (MSNBC, .NET, MSN, XBox, WinCE, etc...)
Weaselmancer
rediculous.
If the PC would have stayed closed, even if MS would have created the greatest OS on earth, it would have died.
Microsoft was just lucky that IBM awarded them the x86-dominance, *ANY* other company would have been successful with that.
I agree that that's a big problem. At the root is the kernel architecture. What we need is a flexible component architecture that allows people to distribute drivers and other kernel components without being tied tightly to exact version of the kernel. If the Linux kernel developers are unable to do this, maybe the Linux kernel needs to go--unlike GUIs, there are many open source alternatives available.
I just said (for at least the 3rd time now) that the reason for Microsoft's success was H-A-R-D-W-A-R-E, and had not much to do with software or marketing or whatever at all.
Well, that is an interesting point of view and is probably partially true. However the post you attacked above was recognizing only the value of marketing (ie I was not saying why they are a giant success) I was disputing the claim of Apples marketing being in some way superior (great ads with no audience==poor marketing) That was my point. H-A-R-D-W-A-R-E was most definitely a part of that, but no not ANY company could have made a go of it with IBMs blessing.
Cheers
Look at where the linux desktop was a year ago. Now extrapolate another year. You see where I am going here. A year ago linux desktop was little more then a dream right now KDE looks and works great. KDE 3.0 will probably be even better.
First impressions are everything. A couple years ago, I installed Slackware on my "spare" box so that I could give it a go and see what all the fuss was about Linux. It was about what I expected it to be: a solid unix-like environment and not much else that a desktop user would be interested in.
I realize that Slackware wasn't the best place to go looking for a good GUI and desktop app package, but I really wasn't interested in replacing Windows at the time so it didn't weigh into my decision much. But after fighting with my X config for several days to finally get it to just *work*, I didn't feel any desire to look at Linux on my primary desktop PC in the future.
My point is, a lot of people started hearing about Linux in the last couple years. Probably a lot of them picked up a Linux distro to give it a try. Probably a lot of them were underwhelmed by what they saw. Probably a lot of those people won't be interested in coming back to Linux based on that first impression. So saying "look at where it was and where it might be going" is going to be a tough sell to all the people who've already got this bad taste in their mouthes.
I've thought about giving it another go, but I haven't yet. Win2k works well enough for me, and the thought of manually editing config files still makes me cringe. Hell, I don't know if I'd even *need* to manually edit config files anymore, but my first experience turned me off enough that I don't feel compelled to find out.
As a side note -- I've been programming for the past 12 years on a wide variety of different OSes. (DOS, Win, MAC, HPUX, Sun...) I'm currently developing a web-based network management system to automagically configure Cisco hardware and software, and to keep track of the 10,000+ network devices on the University of Idaho campus. So I'm not *scared* of computers (obviously), or editing configurations myself. I'm just lazy and would prefer to let the software do things for me whenever possible.
--Jeremy
Jesus was a liberal
Remember the alpha Linux AOL client that was posted on /. quite a while ago? There was a binary rpm which was supposed to be exactly that, an alpha AOL client for linux.
I installed the RPM, and it definitely looked like the real thing.. I even tried logging in, but of course it told me my screenname wasn't authorized to logon.
XML is like violence. If it doesn't solve the problem, use more.
> In truth, MacOS X is what Linux needs to become if it ever wants to succed as a desktop OS for the average joe (i.e good apps, nice interface, seemless hardware support, and a good unix command line just in case).
/hosts file via their NetInfo tool, and *still* need to figure out what PPD and PostScript filter to use - it's lpd at its finest. (I tried looking at CUPS but it doesn't support OS X yet).
Even OS X has a ways to go; it's as vulnerable to hardware mfrs orphaning a product as Windows or Linux. My brother has an Epson Color Stylus 800 printer; works fine under the older Mac OSs. Not supported under OS X. To get that printer working under OS X, we had to go straight into UnixLand - tar file for the installer to support the Axis 1440 parallel-to-ethernet print server driver, manually assign an IP addr to the Axis, add the Axis to the OS X-style
You don't have to use BSD exclusively, but it's good to keep an open mind and try out new things. After all, if you should change jobs and the new job involves running *BSD, you will have that experience already.
Of course, with me being a 15 year-old high-school student, I probably have more time on my hands than you do, but I don't think learning something new is a waste of time at all.
Consider the facts: AOL wants to rule the information biz, AOL wants to topple Microsoft, AOL's client causes all sorts of havoc on Windows and MacOS because it wants to be the OS, AOL wants their wants their client to be simple, and AOL wants their customers to get off the internet and stay on company grounds. All this could lead to only one thing. Actually, it could lead to many things, but here's one that could make a splash in a hurry:
AOL will make their own Linux for the sole purpose of logging on.
It's simple. AOL could pack their own OS (possibly based on Linux because it would be free and take only a bit of tinkering) on every one of those millions of CDs they hand out each year. It would not only make the whole computing experience much "simpler" (for their own purposes, of course) but by giving away the OS, AOL would wipe out MicrosoftÕs market share as quickly as Microsoft wiped out NetscapeÕs (sweet revenge). It would be little more than a client, but it would have just enough offline functionality (for composing e-mails and pictures, etc.) to not tie up the phone line. After giving out a few million copies of AOLinux (they'd probably just call it AOL 9.0), they'd start selling PCs with it preloaded, which would be cheaper than Windows PCs because AOL wants customers spending money on subscriptions and content, and because theyÕd cut back on unnecessary hardware (just how game console design works). For the millions of Road Runner customers out there, theyÕd build a card reader (credit, debit, smart, or whateverÕs popular) into each AOL PC for video on demand. In fact, just for Road Runner customers, they could sell a special version of the AOL PC with a small hard drive, no monitor, and shaped to fit into the entertainment center and watch streaming movies from the couch. Then, with Windows and its metaphors declining, they could start packing in new user interface features like a touchscreen and voice activation (into the self-contained iMac-shaped AOL PC), then start downplaying the keyboard and mouse. ThereÕd be no OS conflicts since AOL would be the OS, and getting customers to upgrade to later versions would be so simple: it would be mandatory, automatic and free! For customers on 56k modems, the OS would just lock up and wait for them to get a free upgrade CD.
http://www.ddj.com/documents/s=909/ddj9875l/9875l. htm
I'd rather be for something than against something too, but I have to use MS at work. So I ended up being anti-microsoft before I discovered Linux. (Funny, I was never anti-Mac, though I've been anti-Apple a few times.)
Actually, up through around 1997 I was moderatly pro-microsoft ("They aren't as bad as you might expect a monopoly to be."). Then I was switched to using their OS. (Well, I allowed myself to be bribed with a new computer. But no way back was provided.)
.
I think we've pushed this "anyone can grow up to be president" thing too far.
"What allies do they have?"
Mmmm let's see now.
Dell, Compaq, HP, evry software company that writes windows software. But those are nothing compared to Most of congress, George W. Bush, John Ashcroft, and most of the press.
War is necrophilia.
"I find it sad that there are people using Linux for no other reason than that it isn't Windows."
There is nothign sad about this at all. People like to buy dolphin safe tuna because some ethical compunction drives them to pay more for the same amount of tuna. People pay more to buy organic vegetables even though they are not as shiny as the commercially grown ones. As a consumer you make choices based on many criterea. Some are purely ethical (ooh this apple is so shiny and flawless looking), some are based on price, some are based on marketing, some are based on a perceived image. For a (unfortunately) minority of the consumers the ethics of how that product was made and how the manufacturer of that product behaves plays a major factor.
I don't know why anybody would see this as "sad". I choose not to pay my hard earned money to a company which behaves in an unethical manner. I also encourage other people not to give their money to the likes of Bill Gates and his mafia. I am sorry you think this is "sad" but I see it as something wonderful. I wish more people would take the ethics of a company into consideration when spending their money. It would make for a better world.
War is necrophilia.
It's great to see KDE and Gnome developing these days, but things are still missing. A simple example:
When I inserted my ISDN card, the installation in Windows was done in 10 minutes, including taking the box off to check the name of the chip.
When I tested RedHat 7.2 on a fresh disk, the point-and-click sequence to get the ISDN card was basically the same. BUT: nothing worked. It turns out the script tries to insmod a module which isn't there. Sure, I can modify the script, but when I got some work that has to be done, I boot windows and dial up (and try to avoid answering slashdot posts)...
There seems to be two alternative ways to get things done in our open-source world: ten-point installation guides or scripts that with more or less success wrap around them.
I used to work writing software for 40-year-old female secretaries. You know what the spec said about the user interface? "If there are three possible buttons to push, that's one button too much".
Okay, sorry for the ranting, but my point is that as long as elaborate debugging is required, the desktop will be for our kind only. (What a 15-year-old does often manages two minutes can be pretty elaborate, if not impossible, for his father.) Linux on the desktop will take off when your aunt can do the same ting with her Linux box as with her iMac, that is opening the cardboard box and connecting to the net _unguided_.
--
Børge
I'm afraid you didn't understand me.
People by organic tomatoes because they are tomatoes, not because they aren't radishes. A tomato is no substitute for a radish. When people choose Linux solely because it isn't Windows, they are asserting that one is a valid subtitute for the other.
I know many Jews who follow a kosher diet. Pork is forbidden to them. Yet I know some who find nothing wrong with fake ham made from turkey. I find this ridiculous. It may be a suitable substitute when drowned in mayonnaise and mustard, but why would a Jew want a ham substitute anyway? I don't want to get into any theological discussions, so don't bother answering that last question. Choosing Linux just because it isn't Windows is like using turkey-ham for instead of real ham. I don't want ham. I want a roast beef sandwich. I don't want a ham sandwich that doesn't have real ham in it. Yet all I hear from the Linux community is that their favorite kosher OS needs to be more like that forbidden pork butt.
A Government Is a Body of People, Usually Notably Ungoverned
"People by organic tomatoes because they are tomatoes, not because they aren't radishes."
What the fuck? Are you saying that linux is not an operating system? Both windows and linux are operating systems. Both open office and MS office are productivity software. How is one a tomato and the other a radish?
Your anologies are simply irrelevant. People want an OS they want apps. Some people use the more ethical OS and the more ethical apps despite the fact that they are not as shiny and heavily vaxed as the commercial apps. Like I said I wish more people thought about the ethical consequences of their purchasing decisions.
"Yet all I hear from the Linux community is that their favorite kosher OS needs to be more like that forbidden pork butt."
Microsoft has relentless stolen every good idea that anybody came up with and incorporated into their apps and OS. There is nothing wrong with letting them do your research and developement. Let them spend the money researching and we will implement their ideas if we like them. This is just business as usual. Like I said they have done it a million times and so has every other company on the planet.
BTW. Turkey is not ham no matter how you shape it or flavor it. The rules of kosherness have nothing to do whether something "looks like ham". If it does not come from a pig and it's slaughtered in a kosher manner then it's OK.
War is necrophilia.
It will be a cold day in hell before any OEM's try to piss of Microsoft.
%95 of all customers use and prefer windows. If they can't have there precious MS-OFFICE and run their windows apps then they will switch to a competitor. WindowsXP is very stable and many users prefer and even like Microsoft. Users will not complain if they have a stable OS and office is given to them at a cheap OEM rate. Microsoft made a great pr marketing campaign and according to us newsweek and cnn polls, %80-%90 of users have a positive impression of microsoft and microsoft software. Users except computers to crash on a regular basis and credit the modern information age as Microsofts own invention.
I am sure I pissed of alot of people who are reading this but lets not ignore the truth. We are not normal users and normal users have only known Microsoft for all their lives.
To OEM'S, being in bed with microsoft = money from %85 of users who equal joe six pack. The rest of the customers are corporate who are %100 pro Microsoft who must use windows weither they want to or not due to win32 only software they use( cough MS Office and vb apps). Corporate users have in house software wriiten with mfc under visual c++ or Vb. They can't leave even if they wanted which was Microsoft's goal since day one.
One last thing. If there is a shortage of licenses for Ms-Office and Windows, who do you think ms will give them to? Their in bed OEm's or the ones that flirt with competition?
OEM's also must depend on Microsoft to sell new computers when a new version of Windows is out. WindowsXP did help compaq and dell alot.
I do not mean to start a flame war but rather just state the obvious. We all know better but the market they sell for does not or doesn't care.
http://saveie6.com/
How many consumer type people (meaning non computer weenies) do you know who say things like, "my computer has Windows 98 on it now but I want to get a new one with Linux on it soon"?
./configure make make install. Maybe it's an RPM. Maybe it's a tarball with a shell script that you have to run. Who knows?
Most people don't actually like messing with their computer; they want to use a few applications and get off of it. IM, Napster, email, Word, Excel, and a web browser are the kind of thing that make people put up with computers. They also don't like shopping for computers.
So the most recent Linux distros are marginally faster at some tasks than Win2k? Well gee, switching would make your 1.7GHz P4 run like a 1.8GHz P4! What a compelling selling point. That's worth about $30 right now based on dell.com's pricing.
On the other hand, a consumer is going to have a lot better chance finding someone to help them install Windows apps than Linux apps. Also, take a look at apps like InstallShield, and compare that to rpm or gnorpm. It's no contest, the Windows or MacOS installation experience is so much better.
AFAIK, nobody is trying to make Linux easy to use. They're trying to make one app easy to use, and there's no UI consistency. MacOS, Windows, and even Java have user interface guidelines that application developers follow. Apple and Microsoft also look at the whole system and try to make it more usable overall. Windows falls down in the "installing a new network card driver" department, for example; don't get me wrong. But with Linux, everything requires you to learn a whole new skill set. Want to install software? Maybe it's
Until Linux does something that a whole lot of people really really want, which Windows doesn't, it won't become popular. The threshold of how cool that something has to be is set by the extremely poor usability of Linux.
I dare anyone to put Windows, MacOS, and Linux (pick your distro) in a room and time a computer newbie trying to get all this done:
- install the OS from CD onto an unpartitioned brand-new 60GB IDE hard disk.
- install a CD burner, network card, digital still camera, digital videocamera, 2 monitors, USB optical mouse, USB MP3 player, low-end laser printer; perform a basic test to make sure each is working.
- install Microsoft Office or StarOffice or whatever app suite you like; launch each app to make sure it works
- connect to an existing e-mail account and download an attachment in Excel format. Print it.
- install a browser that has 128-bit crypto
- connect to an online banking site that requires 128-bit crypto, and print a current statement
- Create an MS Word formatted document and save it.
- install a chat client for AOL, MSN, and Yahoo; send the new Word document to a friend on each of AIM, MSN, and YIM.
- install a USB webcam; have a chat session with a friend on YIM.
I predict that Linux won't be the OS on which the newbie will be able to get all this done most quickly. That's the kind of benchmark that Linux needs to win in order for ordinary people to care about it.