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Dvorak to Apple - Stop The iPhone
eldavojohn writes "John Dvorak is advising Apple to cease all efforts on the iPhone, citing the mobile handset business as a 'buzz saw waiting to chop up newbies.' With Apple's image as a 'hot company that can do no wrong' on the line, Dvorak warns that the extremely fad-prone marketplace for cell phones will quickly turn the 'hot' iPhone passe'. Unless the company has several new models in the pipeline to release after the original offering, he says, they're likely to fail. 'If it's smart it will call the iPhone a "reference design" and pass it to some suckers to build with someone else's marketing budget. Then it can wash its hands of any marketplace failures.'"
Seriously, there's nothing to see here. Move along. Dvorak has known for decades that Apple users are protective of the Apple name and products. So he regularly goes about trying to get those users worked up. He even admits it here! Rather than giving him the satisfaction of getting you worked up again, why don't you try ignoring him for a change?
Javascript + Nintendo DSi = DSiCade
I think the biggest stumbling block for the iPhone is going to be the fact that it's not a 3G phone at a time when the trend is going toward 3G phones. Cingular is even giving 3G phones away free, now...
ZuluPad, the wiki notepad on crack
I wasn't sure how the iPhone would fare, but now that Dvorak is against it - I can rest assured it will be a success.
The phone has GPS. The GPS continually updates every minute and stores in cache on phone. Every so many hours, its uploaded to your home account so you can review where you were the days before. It also has a 1 touch blog. You can then record voice/text/pictures/video to your site and it will be formatted nicely. You can let family members or friends view this website. It would be a living diary for you, and would take no effort. Just 1 button and all the complex web work is done automatically. Hey and if someone wants to implement this, maybe you can hire me :)
God spoke to me.
Put the crack pipe down.
That is all.
Oh, wait. JOHN Dvorak? Nevermind.
No boom today. Boom tomorrow. There's always a boom tomorrow. - Cmdr. Susan Ivanova
1) Say something braindead and contrarian about Apple
2) Get it posted on slashdot to flame contreversy
3) Get eyeballs on published work
4) Profit
must be lacking site hits over in Dvorak-land.
what else would a microsoft shill say?
Without John, how would I know what's not going to happen in the future?
Dvorak must need to bump up his pages hits to have money to go on vacation
Also consider dropping OSX. We're all using OS/2 now.
And I thought the iPhone was gonna be a flop... but now that John Dvorak says so, I *must* be wrong.
The man is a giant windbag of nerd conspiracy theories and technical misunderstanding. Why do the slashdot eds. slurp up all of his moonshot predictions?
My bicyles
Will be a thing of the past.
This will also be handy for spying on cheating significant others/spouses, teenagers, slacker employees, etc.
Will it be able to tell you where it is when you lose it?
Unless the company has several new models in the pipeline to release after the original offering, he says, they're likely to fail.
Good thing Apple is already working hard to make sure the iPhone is laughably obsolete upon release.
Okay, so a philosopher, a philologist, and a philatelist walk into a bar...
I've always been slightly mystified by articles featuring opinions from 'analysts'. These mysterious people to whom we are supposed to pay attention. They pop up from nowhere usually say one controversial thing and are never heard from again.
Dvorak on the other hand just doesn't make sense. Not only does he have completely randomly controversal opinions on Apple but he's never right. How did he get past his third mention? Why does not everyone treat him like all the others. You post one of his wacky ideas you have a good laugh and you more on to others.--
The Wolfkin
Namely nine out of every ten Apple devotees who love their Macs and have loved them for years.
Oh, and probably 3 out of ten iPod owners who think it would be cool to have their iPod and phone all in one.
And then there are the people who just have to have latest gadget.
Let's see, that adds up to...Dvorak being wrong again and again and again.
I'm not a Mac devotee, but even I can see that the iPhone has "cool" written all over it. People love having the hot new thing. The Razr is one example in the phone industry. The Prius is another in the auto industry. Hell, I even want an iPhone and I'm still using a cell-phone about the size of a brick. I think it was invented in 1983. I already own an iPod, but I want the iPhone too.
Remember, Dvorak prefers incendiary commentary over researched ideas.
Yeah, I'm as old as my UID would suggest.
I've never seen such a negative reaction to a Apple product before. Ever. And I go all the way back to Fat Mac days.
I think Apple has already done damage to their virtually do no wrong consumer electronics image they established with the iPod. I've see the abject horror people who are Apple product owners seeing the rabid Jobs fans slaver over the iPod as some sort of digital messiah and say to themselves "My god! I don't want to be any part of this crazy Apple cult"
The iPhone is giving Apple product owners a reputation that people who buy their products are a bunch of loonies who will buy anything Apple slaps an i infront of and add some nicely typeset marketing material.
Who else would post a Dvorak troll to the front page? What a waste.
ENDUT! HOCH HECH!
Unless Slashot is adopting the Dvorak page-hit-generation-model by posting intentionally inflammatory references to intentionally inflammatory articles.
Obviously every other comment is calling Dvorak an idiot. But I'd like to point out what specifically makes him wrong in this case. Apple has the rare ability to define a market. The mp3 player market, while small, existed before Apple's entry. Now many people call it "the iPod market". Apple basically defined the personal computer and helped spawn the market.
Apple has the brand recognition and design abilities to redefine the mobile phone market. Dvorak's assumption is that nothing every changes. But he forgets that Apple often seems to know what people want before they even know they want it.
Developers: We can use your help.
Article by John Dvorak
(-99,000) Troll
cat
Even if you know nothing about Dvorak, you can see right through this crap.
There is a HUGE gaping hole in the cell phone market, which itself is exploding.
None of the current offerings really satisfy on all points, which is why this
product is made or broken by its design and efficacy - like all apple products.
Ipod, imac, ibook, all are fundamentally 'good' products at their price point.
Yeah, you can chalk it up to marketing, hype, etc... but before it even exists?
Further, why is Dvorak giving advising ANYONE?
Stick to wonky keyboards and uninspired rants.
I hate you.....You are a babbling idiot!!!
It's a good thing Dvorak is an intelligent, experienced businessman who has himself run a highly successful, multi-billion dollar company similar to Apple, and not just some blabbering wash-up with a column.
Yeah i'm talking to you. The wannabe computer programmer who thinks they are good at computers because they can click around the computer enough times and find the reboot button and 'fix' an inherently flawed windows system. You think you're cool because you can pirate photoshop but not know anything about it, get Microsoft Office for free but have the literacy of a 1st grader when writing a paper, and get a copy of Norton Anti-virus because your inherently flawed system is useless without Administrative privileges. Get a clue, you are not smart, you are just a corporate sheep for a company that will bury you if you ever tried to write any software that did anything remotely useful. You are a clickaround and all you know if your ugly gray existence that is Windows.
/dev/random > Windows.com
Want the sourcecode to windows vista?
head -n 1000000
Apple has never been afraid to enter a competitive market... in fact I think they purposely identify markets where innovation seems to have slowed and bring a product that shows the competition where they failed.
I am confident that the iPhone will be a success. Apple has been VERY good at seeing it's niche and developing the ideal product to fill that void. Once they have filled the niche, they are even better at attracting users who don't NEED the product by showing them a clean, functional, and enjoyable user experience that isn't offered by the competitors.
I am slowly becoming an Apple fanboy, and I hate to admit that. But when I compare their competitors products, I can rarely find a single one that so thoroughly meets it's customers expectations. Sure there are better music players than the iPod, better computers than the Mac, better STB's than the AppleTV, better media management apps than iTunes, and so on... but find one company that produces these products in such a way that they work as well together.
My family has recently become a Mac family, and I will get and iPhone for my wife and I because my experiences with other smart phones have all been mediocre at best, and I imagine that the iPhone will "just work" with my Mac. I could make anything work, given enough time, but the griping my wife will do when it doesn't "just work" isn't worth the cost savings. So I'll happily over pay for the iPhone.
Sometimes the best solution is to stop wasting time looking for an easy solution.
Wow, that's powerful advice. Apple is going to jump on this, and fast. I'm pressing refresh on Slashdot so I can be the first to read the next TFA linking to the Apple press release. I can see it now: Despite much work on our iPhone during the past five years, including Mac OS re-engineering and hardware design efforts, and despite notable interest on the part of the public, and despite our investments in marketing the product, and in licensing the iPhone's innovative multi-touch interface, and despite and our legally binding exclusive contract with AT&T Wireless, not to mention our legal agreements with Cisco, and despite ... oh why go on? Suffice to say we're canning it.
I want the iPhone to be just a PDA. For me, they can drop the phone-function, leaving the rest. That would be a great device! They could call it the iTon (well, it's not "new" anymore).
I can't understand why Apple haven't hired him yet. I mean, does there exist anyone that can beat his predictions, except perhaps Nostradamus?
Had the major companies listened to everything Dvorak says, they would have been rich by now!
and I don't believe you. how's that for credibility ?!?
seriously, folks... when Apple innovates (first one-board computer, first consumer computer, first GUI computer under $40,000, Newton) they either hit or bust. it's the market, dummy.
when Apple has a triumph of vision and packaging (iMac, iPod, OC/X, iPhone) they haven't failed yet. anybody could have pulled the iPhone together. but nobody thought of it.
THAT'S where Apple shines, finding the right packaging and right mix of features.
Dvorak has stirred the waters, so he will get paid this week.
ATT Wireless and Apple get paid soon. big.
if this is supposed to be a new economy, how come they still want my old fashioned money?
"Just pack it full of features" is a very easy and lazy way to define products. Add too much detail and you gunk up the UI. It is way harder and more important to figure out what to leave out to make it easier to use and "cleaner" for the target user base. There are huge numbers of features that could have been added to ipod, but some of its appeal comes from relative simplicity.
iPhone does not need huge numbers of features to be successful. So long as it does the functions that the target audience expects, it should do well.
Engineering is the art of compromise.
Why, John! I didn't know you posted on Slashdot!
Suddenly it all makes sense. All the trolls, the bad arguments, the poor attempts at putting Apple down. It was you the whole time, wasn't it? Oh John, you're such a kidder!
Javascript + Nintendo DSi = DSiCade
Don't try, because you'll probably fail. If everyone thought like that, we wouldn't be where we are today.
The cell phone market is filled with phones that are difficult to use, unstable, and generally crap.
I have a Motorola Q and it SUCKS. Sure, it hooks up to exchange, and it is nice and small, but battery life sucks, voice recognition sucks, and it crashes more than Eddie Griffin driving an Enzo.
I can't tell you how many times I've looked at phone interfaces from LG, Samsung, Motorola and Nokia and thought the designers were all on crack.
Apple NEEDS to show the world how to make a phone. God help us if they don't.
-ted
ugh, why does /. resort to posting about john dvorak?
He fails to recognize it doesn't matter what Apple does, it has a fan base that will buy anything it produces, whether it works or not. I guarantee you it will express exactly who you are, and that's what matters!
"There is no evidence that people want to use these things." -Dvorak, about Apple's
...and it has nothing to do with sex!
mouse introducion
Check it out
Apple may have lucked out with the iPod - let's face it, any new product launch is a gamble, especially into a product for which you have no previous background.
I have to think though that trying to break into the already pretty mature cel phone market is an entirely different thing.
The market for iPods was largely wide open - most people who bought were moving over from CD or cassette players, and represented a pretty much untapped population.
The iPhone though will have to convince existing cel phone owners to change hardware, and in some case change service providers. That's a much tougher sell, especially when you're charging up front for a phone when most providers offer a phone for "free."
If I were marketing this thing I'd sell it as an upgrade for existing iPod owners, a newer better iPod that just happens to also include a phone.
Three Squirrels
Ya know, like how the iPod was going to destroy the prestine image of Apple back in 2001? What a fucking idiot this guy always seems to be. Sure the iPhone isn't going to break any records out of the gate, but its something to grow on. It's the way things have to work: the first adopters are always going to be techies, who want the most features possible... this subsidizes the marketing of lower-end models which target the mainstream consumer. It's a good business strategy when trying to bring out a new type of gadget.
The Zune failed because it tried to copy something that was already on the market, but started with the high end. The opposite would have been better, here, they should have started with really low-end models and worked their way up, because Microsoft wasn't really aiming to establish a new kind of device. The iPhone, on the other hand, is really pushing to try and bring a fairly unique kind of device into the mainstream market place, so they have to start at the top.
There's a reason Dvorak never gets hired for consulting work, he has no idea what goes into a good business strategy. I don't know why we even post his fluff on here any more. I say slashdot just ignore him from now on, and he'll eventually go away.
Multiplayer Gaming (defined): Sitting around, discussing single-player games with my friends, at the bar.
Having read the article (omg, ban him from slashdot!), I will give Dvorak this: the cell phone market is nothing like the mp3 market that Apple helped to create. The situations are very different, so you can't expect a success like the ipod. Of course, you almost never get successes like the ipod in business, so that really isn't saying much.
-Jeff
P.S. The rest of what he said regarding fashion, etc, I have no idea. Personally I think price tag, batteries, memory, calling plan, and the 3G aspect will tell the tale more than fashion. So JD and I may come to the same conclusion, but from completely different logic chains.
Please learn the difference between a dissenting opinion and a troll before you moderate.
As I told you, it would be absolutely, totally, and in all other ways inconceivable. There is no likelihood that Apple can be successful in a business this competitive, and there is no evidence that it can play the game fast enough. - Out of curiosity, why do you ask?
According to this blog, Azerbaijan is actually a good place to get an iPod, compared to the surrounding countries.
The first three tags on this story are "Dvorak," "idiot" and "troll."
Talk about redundancy.
Lemmings are silly; dinosaurs are extinct.
He did say one truth which is that the cell phone business is a buzz saw. It is unknown at this time whether "Apple cool" will be enough. There are a lot of players in the market already, and some very good players that know the market. Apple managed to beat the odds with the iPod, whether or not it will with the iPhone remains a big maybe. The other truth he touched on is that people who follow "cool" are notoriously fickle.
Sure, everyone had to have one, myself included, but I have yet to meet a person that's owned one for any length of time and actually liked it.
The RAZRs were riddled with OS problems, bad voice quality, permanent dust under the screen, etc.
They were cool looking though.
As for me wanting an iPhone? I don't think so. I still prefer to have real buttons to press. It'll be interesting to see if Apple can sway enough people to prefer a total touch-screen experience to a tactile one.
I got four paragraphs into the damned thing and was fed up; I'm on IE (at work) and every ten seconds a fucking dialog box popped up asking me if I wanted to debug MarketWatch's poorly written javascript. The stupid fucktard who wrote it must have somehow gotten javascript into an infinite loop. I dodn't think ANYBODY could progarm that badly!
What? The? Fucking? Hell?!?!?!?! Shitty shitty shitty!!!! God DAMN but that's annoying. No fucking wonder nobody reads the fucking articles here! Damn it! I wonder whet the javascript was supposed to do? Update the cookie every five seconds? FUCK!!!
Anybody got a link to a cached copy minus the poorly written javascript? Jesus, I can't believe somebody's actually getting PAID for such poor work. That's supposed to be a professional web site? Jesus H. Christ!!!!
Who cares what Dvorak says? What reason is there to listen to him? He isn't even the guy after whom the interesting keyboard, the obscure cryptography based on it, or anything else.
He's been totally wrong about Apple all the time, including such fundamentals of whether people would use a "mouse".
Enough of this clown. Steve Jobs should just take him behind the woodshed and spank him down once and for all.
--
make install -not war
You're just upset because it does not come in brown. Now that's innovation!
I have come to a conclusion that one useless man is a shame, two is a law firm, and three or more is a congress -J Adams
After listening to him on TWiT for the past two years, it is pretty obvious that he will say anything in the name of self promotion. That being said, I kinda agree with him this time. I don't see how the iPhone can not fail. Even if it is an average success, the amount of hype that surrounds it will make it seem like a failure and unless new and better models come out a lot more often that the current iPod upgrade schedule it will be forgotten once everyone buys a new phone in 12-24 months. nearlygod
The Tools Of Ignorance wanna be a tool?
Seriously, who is this guy?
It's another terible post from a terrible writer approved by the worst slashdot editor. At least Zonk stopped being the dupe master...but he makes the worst decisions about what to post.
It's called being loud and cock-sure of yourself regarless of how actually insane your analysis is.
> Without John, how would I know what's not going to happen in the future?
:-)
Goat entrails. Believe it or not, they're just as accurate (if not more) than he is
Of course, that's not saying much...
The iPhone is all too likely to be another Newton.
... or even give any evidence they're aware of ... the tactile feedback problems on the iPod is unlikely to have come up with a great solution for the iPhone.
I've used cellphones with touch screens and they are awful. You need tactile feedback, even more than you need it for an MP3 player. A company that's failed to fix
I won't even try to argue that Apple *doesn't* have a percentage of customers who will "buy anything they build". Of course they do. But show me ONE successful company who doesn't! As both a Mac and a PC user myself, I find this accusation really tiresome. I know people who will only buy Ford cars and trucks, refusing to even look at what else is out there. I know people who have all Maytag branded appliances, again, just because of their belief that the company can "do no wrong" compared to the competition.
I think, in reality, *most* people you see who own multiple Apple products do so because they were impressed with the first one, and saw the benefits of owning hardware that inter-operates well. (The "bonjour" sharing capabilities of OS X on a LAN can't be fully realized if you only own one OS X based Mac, for example.)
And in fact, Mac fans seem to be quite preoccupied with building and arguing over lists of the "top 10" or "top 20" worst Apple products of all time. Even the biggest Mac zealots will usually admit that Apple's Performa 6x00 line in the 90's was garbage, for example.
You can't grow if you don't jump in the ring and play ball.
Ex-players who couldn't make it for whatever reason then try out as announcers, but announcers aren't team owners, team managers, team strategists or team players. They are all talk.
In the features I see below, ONLY ONE FEATURE is a PHONE FUNCTION: The iPhone is a modern version of what a Newton might have been.
1. iPhone as a Phone: It is going to work, if not spectacularly
2. Syncing with Macs: I can guarantee it will be as seamless as possible.
3. WiFi connection: I'll bet it is about as solid as my MacBook
4. Internet Info: Whether it is getting or sending a short email or two or finding a specific piece of data on the web, I will bet a hot cup at Starbucks that iPhone works like a charm
5. Calendar: Given the ability to have calendars sync'd I'll bet that this is also seamless
6. Special Appls: I am willing to bet that Apple approved 3rd party applications make it to the platform real soon, to improve user productivity (Hi-end calculator, Business specific tools)
Dvorak's comments aside, there is a red herring with regard to this whole iPhone thing; phones with the capabilities of the iPhone have existed in Japan for quite sometime. The only reason they haven't jumped the tank to the states is Nokia and such realized that they can make a pretty penny selling old technology to the American Market especially because it seems like there are fewer bleeding-edge types in the states than say Japan.
Granted, one should never underestimate the power of the mac fanboy....
His comments are off base. What he's saying might be true if we were talking about a less expensive iPhone that was being given away either for free (or for a relatively small amount) with a contract but that's just not the case. These phones will cost you $499 or $599 depending on the model. Nobody who pays that amount will do so knowing the next version is in the pipe and will be released in a few months.
Hmmm. Since it seems that you keep reading them and posting comments in them, it doesn't seem likely that they'll stop, now does it?
My blog
Stop the Dvorak
Found this on the wayback machine:
"John Dvorak is advising Apple to cease all efforts on the Macintosh, citing the personal computer business as a 'buzz saw waiting to chop up newcomers.' With Apple's image as a 'self-starter company that can do no wrong' on the line, Dvorak warns that the extremely stodgy marketplace for personal computers will quickly turn the 'novel' Macintosh passe'. Unless the company has something that does more than just doodle in black & white in the pipeline to release after the original offering, he says, they're likely to fail. 'If it's smart it will call the Macintosh a "reference design" and pass it to Microsoft to build with someone else's marketing budget. Then it can wash its hands of any marketplace failures.'"
WAIT! Before you mod me down or assume I'm some kinda nut, hear me out! I'm not so sure Dvorak is entirely trolling. The cell phone handset market is very fickle and fad-driven. While it's definitely likely the iPhone will find itself a niche outside of the mainstream of the market, it's not likely that iPhone will take mainstream market by storm and change the way most people buy phones. Meaning that I simply that I think while the iPhone will enjoy some success, I don't think the iPhone will be the sensation that iPod was -- ever.
My blog
If I read TFA correctly, he makes it sound like Apple will not innovate fast enough. Most cell phone companies come out with a new version/candy named phone every 12 months. I believe Apple has had 5? generations of iPods. Every one was a better sensation than the last. What's to say this doesn't happen with the iPhone? Sure, there will be fixes needed, but it should not be inferred that Apple will not produce a "fix" in a timely matter, heck it could even be faster and easier than a traditional cell phone. Plus I think they are already starting on a good foot the other companies will (should) be playing catch-up. Two things Apple does well: Marketing and Innovation, IMO.
So he says somebody will buy a cheap rip-off version of it? Well, I would be happy and glad if that happend.
If I look at my cellphone and how complicated it is to get the several functions working and then I look at my TomTom with a much easier to use interface, I would be happy if many more companies would go the same way.
I have 24 buttons on my phone. TWENTYFOUR. Most of them I don't even use most of the time and some of them have several functions.
So please make that phone and if possible, make it a succes, so that other companies wake up and build cheap copies of it. That wau everybody can rant how Apple was the first and everybody just steals their ideas and I can buy a cellphone for a good price with a good UI.
Don't fight for your country, if your country does not fight for you.
I love these types of comments when posted by AC.
finally calling someone on an incorrect economic model.
Slashdot is kind of like Playboy; we aren't here to read the articles.
Given his track record, Dvorak's opposition to the iPhone may be the best endorsement yet of the thing.
You Ignorant fool, I was going to offer you eternal life.
iPhone. Disappear me!
http://youtube.com/watch?v=xgZKjJt-TkU
The Kruger Dunning explains most post on
This is the modern world. We know where we were yesterday... in front of a computer, same as today.
"Unless the company has several new models in the pipeline to release after the original offering, he says, they're likely to fail."
So IF they don't come out with several new models, they will fail. Well DUH.
See now, that's the thing about Apple. How many varieties of iMac have there been? Varieties of Ipod? (at least 5!) Think Apple is so STUPID as to not realize they need to keep innovating, Mr Dvorak? Sheeeeeeeeeesh
Dvorak to Apple - Stop The iPhone
Translation: "Dammit! Years ago, I said you'd be dead by now! Why haven't you died?! DIE, Dammit! You're making me look like a fool! At least have the decency to mutilate yourself and save my rep! They're starting to look at me funny!"
man I hate the modern mobile phones.
I would like to have a phone with large buttons, these can be either raised or sunken buttons, but I want to feel them, I want tactile response, a 'click' sort of feeling. I want to be able to push them without looking, so I want a large enough phone to put these large enough buttons. I want the phone to be made of metal, something that needs a screwdriver to be taken appart, I want it to be waterproof. Better yet it should be able to float, but that's asking too much for something made of metal. In any case I want to be able to drop the f.cking thing into a bucket full of soap water, pull it out after 3 hours and still be able to use it without any problems. I want this phone to have a nice screw on clip, which won't break off. I want this phone to have a power socket, that doesn't break after 3 weeks of use. Not like those f.cking Motorolla power sockets that are completely useless garbage. I want a power socket that can be closed (waterproof, remember?) and the kind that doesn't break even if the power cord is shoved in sideways (well, if there is an attempt, anyway.) I want the battery to last for a month (too much to ask,) ok, if it lasts for 5 days without recharging that would already be a miracle. I want the reception on this phone to be exceptional. I don't want this phone to do anything fancy. I don't want a camera or an mp3 player. However an AM radio would be awesomely appreciated. Not the useless FM radio, but the useful AM, that's where all the best talk shows are in Toronto. I don't want any musical cacophony as a ring tone, I don't care, but a single purpose rotary volume control would be freaking awesome, with a single purpose VERY HARD TO PUSH, BUT A LARGE button to switch from Loud to Soft to Vibrate and back.
I do not mind paying up to $300 for a phone like that. If it has an AM radio, 350. If it has a built in GPS receiver then 500.
No cameras, no mp3s, no fancy programming except for very basic features. I want a freaking phone that works and cannot be easily destroyed. It has to be a quad band so I can take it with me anywhere, and it has to have a detachable SIM card (f.ck you, Telus.)
I can't get anything like this, I may just build my own.
You can't handle the truth.
I feel Mr. Jobs is a bit of a control freak.
'If it's smart it will call the iPhone a "reference design" and pass it to some suckers to build with someone else's marketing budget. Then it can wash its hands of any marketplace failures.'"
There is a lot of common wisdom in the reference design idea. If it's the greatest phone then it should work on and with every Network. Rather than get one Network to pump lots of $$ into the product, they should convince every network to support it and put a fair but not obscene amount of money in.. thus insuring a good launch and success as they only phone available on every network and in every market. That makes it much more of the "phone to have" that making me switch networks...
http://www.hawknest.com/
Blah blah FUD blah blah troll blah FUD blah troll blah blah blah ...
Give a man a fish and you have fed him for today. Teach a man to fish, and he'll say "WHERE'S MY FISH, YOU IDIOT?"
Samsungs new phone the Upstage, really looks more attractive than the iPhone does. LCD screens on both sides, mp3 player, etc, other. It is a fad driven market.
Apple has not made their place in the market by an excess of features. They've establishes themselves by taking what's already out there and just making it work. There were a ton of mp3 players out before the ipod. The problem they had was that none of them quite got the combination of form factor and ease of use right. There's tons of mp3 players that offer FM radio, and voice recording, but not the IPod. Yet the Ipod dominates because it doesn't try to do anything it isn't good at.
Putting 3G on the phone would just make it more expensive than it already is and offer little benefit to most of their customers. It's certainly something they can offer down the road once 3G is more common.
This sig has been temporarily disconnected or is no longer in service
Ignoring them hasn't made them go away. What do I try next?
Warning people at the top of the thread and criticizing the editors seems reasonable to me.
Those are my principles. If you don't like them I have others. -Groucho Marx
Apple tried this with Motorola, and the product sucked. Apple needs total control in order to make a product come out as good as, well, Apple products do. With that control they'll be special in the market, without they'll just be one of dozens of clones vying for marketshare.
I observe that the parent is tagged "troll, idiot, dvorak". I propose a new tag, "trolidvo", which both honors ol' John as the industry spokesperson he is, and saves us all some typing.
Seriously, this reads more like a satire than the usual Dvo-troll. I wonder if he's considered writing for The Onion.
I don't know how the iPhone will fare, but I do know that Dvorak is basically an egomaniac who thinks he knows best about just about all technology issues. Headlines like these is what he lives for -- telling companies what to do, and pretending he knows what the public will buy. Portable MP3 players were abundant when Apple got into that market, and they've seem to do OK. You don't have to enter a new market, you just have to have a decent product.
I guess the kittens can relax, because Jobs hasn't sold a single phone.
And I bet more kittens will be put down by ppl than iPhones sold for any period of time you care to choose.
Seriously... I'm on John's side and have been ever since Apple started selling computers that came with mice! What a ridiculous idea that was!!!
I think the iPhone has potential. As a device, it's extremely well-designed. The multitouch interface is certainly something new and could redefine the way people interact with mobile devices. They've clearly put a lot of top-of-the-line hardware into it; the demo Jobs gave of things like Cover Flow on the iTunes portion of it is proof enough of that, and every smartphone -- or product that pretends to be a smartphone, anyway -- should have 802.11 these days.
:)
As a product, ehhhh. Who are they selling to? Certainly not Joe Consumer -- who has $499 to throw away on a 4GB iPod, even if it also happens to be a cellphone and web browser? For $499, I want a device that matches up to what the iPhone ACTUALLY is -- a handheld OS X device. But no, Apple had to go and lock the machine down and give a bunch of phony excuses for it, when all it really comes down to is "Jobs wants to be emperor of 'his' product." So all of the potential that it had as a handheld OS X machine -- the potential that they actually touted with all of the talk about it "running OS X" and "having Cocoa" -- will go to waste. No GNU tools. No open-source software. Bah.
OK, maybe we agree more than disagree.
+++ATH0
I got suckered with the RAZR, and you're dead right - it sucks. It's worse than any phone I've owned. But I'm saving my money for an iphone for that very reason. Yes, you heard me right - I'm saving my money for an iphone because the RAZR and every other cell phone I've had since the nokia something-circa-1998 has sucked big time.
The iphone was built by people that think current cell phones suck in both design and function (if I remember it right, Jobs himself started this crusade for a usable cell phone after some lousy offering with motorola in '05?). Apple built the iphone without the input of the cell phone companies, and as I understand it, in some cases, in spite of them - verizon dumped it because apple wouldn't use verizon's web browser (or some such quibble) - that really had nothing to do with the device itself. Verizon and every other phone company wanted to tack their own little piece of crapware to the device, and apple said no. Oh thank GOD.
APPLE built a *phone* from the hardware to the software, without the 'help' or input from the very same companies that have flooded the market with cool LOOKING garbage like the RAZR. I've never owned a mac, but from what I understand they're pretty good at the whole 'designed' for people thing. I own an ipod (hate itunes, but love the device), and I'm happy to bet $600 that I'll be using an iphone for the next 5 years.
Of course... if it sucks too, I'm just going back to screaming really loud. Or maybe just suck it up and get a land line.
As always Dvorak makes a semi-intelligent point and then contradicts himself. At first he says Apple's iPod success primarily is from its only strength, marketing. Then he says that iTunes store success is due to Apple's only strength: making the interface practical and useable. Which one is it? Really it would be both and then some. Success doesn't always come from one thing but a multitude of different factors. Apple entered into a niche market, saw the weaknesses in the products, designed easier to use products (and IMHO better products), and then marketed their products better. Dvorak does forget though that the HD based players were a niche market when Apple first made the iPod, he neglects the fact that Creative, SanDisk, Rio, etc. had lots of products in the flash based player market when Apple decided to create the iPod mini.
Furthermore, Dvorak fails to see the distinction of different products for different segments of a market. They are lots of cell phones and it is a very crowded competitive market with thin margins. However, if you divide the market between regular cell phones and smart phones, there is a distinction. There are fewer smart phone products and for the most part their profits are better than the average cell phone. That is the niche market Apple is going after. It is not looking to compete with the Razr. It is competing with higher end cell phones.
Well, there's spam egg sausage and spam, that's not got much spam in it.
Maybe Dvorak's still grumpy about that Newton he bought?
Dvorak thinks Apple's success formula has been simple: "play the fashion game", and advertise. I think this analysis is completely off the mark.
Apple has been crazy successful because of their single minded devotion to one thing: USABILITY.
The iPhone nails nearly all the usability problems left unsolved by previous "smart" phones. BIG screen. TOUCH screen (finger, not stylus). Usable audio/video software. Sweet maps. Sufficient storage for music. WiFi (fast, and untethers you from the carrier). Large onscreen keyboard for fast text entry. All apps just ONE tap away.
It's not just "jazzy", with an impressive list of bullet points. It promises to be so easy to use -- even fun -- that people who only use their phone for calls today will actually CHANGE THEIR BEHAVIOR, and begin to see their phone as a portal to the web, to email, to maps. I'm talking mainstream users, here, not techies.
That's huge. This won't be "passe" three months from now, as he contends. I think it will establish a new standard for usability, and leave the Nokias and Motorolas scrambling to play catch up.
All MHO, of course....
The iphone has a big screen that will scratch easily. Watch the complaints come rolling in with regards to cracked and scratched screens and all of the apple fans will cry foul. I my opinion, the Motorola Razr is a much better phone that could be adapted to an mp3 player with little effort.
Anybody remember Jon Landau? No? Back in 1974 he wrote an article where he said "I saw rock and roll future and its name is Bruce Springsteen". Pretty close to the truth if you ask me.
Today I would like to say this: "I have seen the future of computing and its name is Apple iPhone!" No more, no less!
Many people here and elsewhere make the error of seeing the iPhone as a mobile phone. Well it is, BUT also it isn't. OR rather it is so much more. It is actually the first glimpse of a gadget that could replace your stationary computer AND your laptop AND your mobile phone AND your PDA AND your GPS AND a lot of other gadgets too. Imagine having ALL of your personal work with you at all times AND being able to use them everywhere.
TRUE - it will not do all of this now - it has the wrong processor, it has no hard drive, there are no external screens or keyboards, you can not load your own or 3rd party programs, it does not come with G3 and so on an so forth.
BUT most or ALL of those limits can, as I see it, easily be overcome. If you take a look at Apples videos of the iPhone in action and think away all those limitations and shortcomings it gives you a really interesting glimpse of what might be in the future. And that future is not so distant.
So what Apple is doing now as I see it is a gigantic field-test of this future gadget on the mobile phone market. They need experience there. The mobile phone is THE gadget that you really want to mate with your computer. ONE - because everyone has one and TWO - because it can connect you to the internet.
To protect themselves they have locked it up so you can not add your own programs. This gives them zero installed user base that they need to be compatible with so they will have complete freedom to change whatever they wish. And who knows - they might even earn a dollar or two from this field test.
But when they have learned what they need they will surely mate it with the Macintosh and they will end up with a really nifty gadget. With a little luck (for them) Apple will own enough patents that others (M-soft) will have a hard time to play catch-up. And since it replaces many gadgets they will be able to charge a nice premium.
In all truth Jon Landaus writing put a LOT of pressure on Bruce and it took him years to come out of its shadow. Maybe Apple has shown their cards to soon and the competition will manage to catch up sooner than I can imagine. Well, the future will tell. But please do not make the mistake as John Dvorak and others do and see the iPhone as an isolated product with shortcomings. Have a look at what it offers and think about how it forever will change what people will expect as minimum functionality. Not of a phone as such - cheap phones will always find a market. But of an intelligent device that is ALSO a phone.
To all of you who still don't get what I mean I have only one advice. Take a look at Apple's videos on their homepage. You obviously have not done that.
And to all of you who think that I am an Apple junkie: I do not own an OSX Mac. This is written on a Windows XP machine. I do not own an iPod. But I do recognize good design when I see it. And I have been using computers for almost thirty years.
Bob Suede
Reminds me this guy who called the ipod "No wireless. Less space than a nomad. Lame."
Oh wait
In any event, I think he's wrong on all counts simply because the iPhone doesn't represent a dead end for Apple even if the iPhone product itself fails. Eventually, Apple will want advanced touchscreen products, MacOS X running on very small low-powered systems, cellular internet access, and so forth and so on built into its products. iPhone may not be The Killer Product, but each of the technologies in it is core to Apple and important in the long term.
Strategically, the iPhone represents:
* Gee doesn't shipping the first consumer digital cameras count as a new product Mr. Dvorak?
http://youtube.com/watch?v=1eA3XCvrK90
calling all destroyers
But, the margins are very slim, the phone is kinda big and fragile in comparison to a flip-phone (big screen, like the PSP.. with a very shiny surface) and expensive as all hell.
The thing is that was overlooked is that thin margins are exactly what make the phone industry vulnerable. They have all been competing on no margin forever squeezing device functionality to come cheap as possible.
Now here comes Apple, who knows margins very well - and prefers large ones thank you very much. So they reject the whole exiting phone model, and build a really nice phone that does cost more but also gives Apple great margins.
So now people start buying them, and because margins are good Apple is able to come out with more models and make improvements. The iPod is not a fad phone because it represents something different in the mobile market, an attempt to build a nice phone without worries about margins squeezing them to death. Even if a phone is expensive you only pay for it once, and if it works well then the cost is worth it.
"There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
Like anyone will take him serious by now. pffffffffffffffffffff
I also have a RAZR which I despise, I'm getting an iPhone for the exact reasons you mentioned. After drifting from supposedly good phone to good phone (like the Ericsson series) I am done with the lot of them and really looking forward to a cell phone not built around cell phone company demands.
"There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
but the individual phone that you (might) purchase from Apple is not, it's yours, theoretically to do with as you please -- provided artificial restrictions aren't imposed on it.
+++ATH0
I also do not like every device under the sun. But I do like the concept of a combined iPhone and iPod - sometimes I'll still want a dedicated iPod, and then you have the nano or mini. But many times it's nice to carry only one device you need (which is phone) but also get some benefits from having your music around as well.
I would rather the iPhone not even have a camera honestly, but I can live with one being present.
The thing I also potentially like about the iPhone is that I feel with it being a music player they will take some care to deliver good quality audio for voice conversations too.
"There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
I'd say that the smart phone market is very much a niche market that Apple could make some headway in
Now doesn't that sound exactly like the MP3 player market? It was a niche market no-one treated seriously until Apple expanded it to the point it was no longer a niche. Why cannot Apple do the same thing with the smart phone "niche".
"There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
I imagine a lot of the two-finger operations will be done either with two thumbs -- like on a Motorola Q keyboard, for example, or a Treo -- or with the thumb and finger combo you mention. If nothing else, it'd be useful for typing -- using the Shift key, for example.
:)
I also think multi-touch has potential on full screens. As a Star Trek nerd I can't help but envision the possibility of an LCARS-like touch interface.
+++ATH0
This is also the phone for PDA owners that used to have PDA's before that market lost its way. I am looking forward to having a PDA back.
The iPhone (or something rather like it) should have been built three years ago by Palm, that would have been possible if they had stayed focused.
"There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
http://www.reghardware.co.uk/2006/11/28/o2_ships_o rbit/
... which ships with:
p hp
http://www.pocketgpsworld.com/copilot-live-ppc-5.
As to the one touch blog bit, I'm sure someone's written something for WM5?
When the 1G iPod was around, though, the hard drive MP3 player market was not anywhere CLOSE to saturated. That is assuredly not true today for the iPhone and the smartphone market.
+++ATH0
Sorry man, you may have been using some kind of data network but whatever you were using in Denver was not 3G. I've got six Windows smartphone owners that live all over the city that can verify that. You should hear the lamentations when they get back from a place that does have it, like DC. Again, I'm sure you had a data connection but it was not any faster than what the iPhone is going to be using when it delivers.
So how sure are you the network you were/are on is 3G? After all, the iPhone does support Edge which really is everywhere, and also WiFi, which is everywhere you sit just about. The perfect combo for me.
"There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
Here is a list of all the cities that do currently support 3G.
Denver is not on there, but the rest of the cities you listed are. But there are a lot of cities (and whole states) not covered. Only 37 of the 50 states, and in a lot of those states only one major metro area.
"There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
I would venture to say that people don't just buy phones once. They buy many of them, because you take them everywhere and they break or just wear out. While it's true that the iPod is also a device you carry around - it's not carried around nearly as much as a cell phone. If people never replaced them, or only replaced them every five years, then there would be no market for cell phones.
Perhaps the margin on the iPhone is higher then other devices (though I doubt it's nearly as high as any iPod or most of what Apple sells) but the device simply can't stay $500 for very long. The initial rush of sales will die off, and people will wait for the price to come way down like they do with every other phone. If they do not, then Apple will just not sell as many.
There's only so many things Apple can do with a cell phone, whether they reject the market or not. What do you think they could do with it that others have not done?
The cell phone market is already a utility market. Except for a small number of people (comparatively) most people just want your basic phone to make calls on, and don't expect to pay much for it. I'm not a market expert, but I'd almost agree that the market for a big expensive cell phone is less then the market for the iPod.
- It's not the Macs I hate. It's Digg users. -
It was a rhetorical question which clearly zoomed right over your head.
You don't have to believe me, but the companies must be lying then! Cingular doesn't offer 3G in Denver right now - here is there coverage. Well over 100 cities in total.
I was using my Sprint phone on a business trip while in Denver. If the whole list is a sham then both Cnet and I are lying !
My electric tooth brush is water proof and does not have a power socket It couples magnetically the a charger with a coil of wire. This is how all cell phones should work.
Comment removed based on user account deletion
The RAZR is the worst phone I have ever owned. I cannot count the times it has avoided being slammed into pavement or other hard surfaces in sheer frustration.
I've never seen tactile buttons that actually manage to mislead your fingers as to where to type; the RAZR keypad manages to do just that.
I am buying the iPhone the day it comes out, the RAZR helped push me there. I just hope I can refrain my natural urge to destroy the RAZR for the benefit of mankind so I can get something for it on eBay.
"There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
Stop allowing Dvorak's crazed sensationalist rants in as news stories. Thanks.
as much as everyone loves to hate this guy... stop referencing 'his keyboard' John dvorak isn't responsible for the Dvorak keyboard layout; August Dvorak is. And by the way coming from a very linux/mac happy crowd that's a stupid line of argument. Just because something isn't popular doesn't mean it isn't significantly better. just because something is better doesnt mean it will be popular for you haters of double negatives examples: - Windows usage comp'd to linux/mac/a sack of potatoes plugged into the wall - vhs and beta - people buying cars made by Ford - george W. and just about anyone else who ran - american idol and just about anything else on TV
"Jazz isn't dead, it just smells funny" ~Frank Zappa
EdelFactor
NT
John Dvorak is advising Apple to cease all efforts on the iPod, citing the portable music player business as a 'buzz saw waiting to chop up newbies.' With Apple's image as a 'hot company that can do no wrong' on the line, Dvorak warns that the extremely fad-prone marketplace for portable music players will quickly turn the 'hot' iPod passe'. Unless the company has several new models in the pipeline to release after the original offering, he says, they're likely to fail. 'If it's smart it will call the iPod a "reference design" and pass it to some suckers to build with someone else's marketing budget. Then it can wash its hands of any marketplace failures.'
When the iPod was released, the market was dominated by a some gee-whizmo MP3 players and lots and lots of CD-players. Nothing like the iPod was available. This is almost the exact same conditions that exist in the cell phone market. What Dvorak (and many others) are missing is that the iPhone can be called 'just another phone' as much as the iPod can be called 'just another MP3 player'. Apple makes new(ish) technology accessible, period. The cell phones today; for all of their features buried deep down in clunky menus, aren't accessible. Everyone remember how well the Diamond Rio's UI worked? The iPhone will be a huge success, not because its a great cell phone, but because its a step above. Its not a competitor, instead, like the iPod, its a market-killer.
Yes, I mean the entire story, or the summary, or Dvorak, or whatever you can get your hands on. Can we please stop hearing about this moron? While I'll grant he's got above-average writing abilities, he's no more insightful than the average /. comment.
And whatever you do, don't RTFA!
i speak for myself and those who like what i say.
Anyone have any links or info handy on Dvorak's greatest "misses" ? Is there an anthology available anywhere?
Seriously, I want to know more...
...unfortunately no one can be told what The Mat^H^H^HGoatse is...they must experience it for themselves...
I see what Apple intend to do with their iPhone as similar to what Nokia (and others?) are doing with their S60 3rd edition devices. On the latter, (almost) all apps need to be sent to special test houses to be tested to make sure the aren't melicious and/or going to screw up the users' phones. I think Apple will end up with something similar. 3rd parties will be able to write stuff for it, but they'll have to submit it for testing before it'll be able to be installed. Freeware (etc) is tested for free via a sponsored test house.
As for S60 3rd, it is a real pain to do, especially the first time, but most people realise the value in the long run.
Distribution may well be different though, from the sound of things.
Max.
It's an authorized retailer. An Apple Store is owned by the company.
and Apple stands as good a chance as anyone of providing one. Our choices are currently limited by the fact that the phone manufacturers are beholden to the carriers. I have a Nokia E61, a phone you can't currently get (as a standard offering from your carrier) because it offers WiFi and SIP VoIP as a standard feature. You can get the dumbed-down E62 from Cingular (which has the WiFi chip yanked and the SIP software missing). If you want truly advanced mobile features, you need to get the carriers out of the way.
Apple is the only company to date to take on the challenge of putting the carriers in their place. Savvy consumers want the carriers to provide the basic service of moving bits from one place to another as inexpensively as possible. Carriers, on the other hand, want to be the alpha and omega of wireless communication, and the gateway to all features (for a price). While I have no objection to anyone making money, I think the carrier-as-god model is patently stupid. In many other parts of the world the carriers are just that -- common carriers. You get your phone from somebody else. You get features from somebody else. The carrier is simply a bit pipe.
If anybody can force a change in the current model in place in the States, it will be Apple. Ignore Dvorak (King of the Trolls) and help Apple break the strangle hold that Cingular, Verizon and Sprint have on the mobile market.
As I said, you had a data connection - you just were using Edge like the iPhone will be. If you didn't notice the differnce, then I guess it's not that important to have 3G vs. edge...
And WiFi is still way faster, thus preferable, when availiable.
"There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
We've had waterproof phones in Japan for quite some time now. Here's a recent model that's advertised as "if it gets dirty, just wash it."
i /index.html
x .html
http://www.nttdocomo.co.jp/product/foma/703i/f703
And there's a fair amount of consideration given to the keypad tactile feel, given the popularity of text messaging. For example, this model has a contoured key surface for easier touch-typing:
http://mb.softbank.jp/mb/en/product/3g/812sh/inde
Sorry to say, but Canadians like you really ought to put pressure on the government for allowing nasty oligopolies like Rogers/Telus/Bell to stifle mobile innovation in Canada.
Verizon and Sprint have 3G in the Denver area.
EVDO is not 3G.
"There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
a trash bin icon for Dvorak articles?
I love my Mac but I won't be picking up an iPhone until it works with Telus and can do more than my WM5 phone.
I'm not holding my breath.
The dunce is unusually wrong on this one. Not only is this cool device raising the bar for cell-phone makers now, it will soon be your tool of choice to buy AppleTV content as you sit on your couch - and later on, to use as your universal debit card for all sorts of financial transactions. Talk about phoning in your order!
And why will Apple succeed in this? because it's going to be WAY EASY and TOTALLY SAFE. No viruses, no spyware, and no rootkits allowed. Simple, safe, secure, universal e-commerce - for everyone - from wherever you are.
You can bet on the fact that Apple already has their long-term plan in place, and their next five or six models already well along in the design pipeline. Just like the iPod, they'll have their basic models too, and soon enough.
They're going to sell a triple ton of these before it's over. Just watch.
I'm pretty sure there is a reason. And with how the cellphone industry is these days I bet Jobs had to "settle" some how. he is big time now and I'm sure some of his grand ideas still have to go through inverters. And with the number of companies he had to "go through" to approve a cellphone (That is A LOT of red tape) I am sure there was a stipulation to "lock down" the phone.
Only time will tell. Perhaps they will open it later. Or maybe just make the certification (digital signing) process easier unlike Sony (Read PSP)
> SELECT * FROM brain_cells WHERE synaptic_rate > 0
0 row returned
Real reqs to telephones are usually met by current manufacturers.
.mp3 or .wav or .mid ring tones is a given nowadays.
Battery life, sleekness, being used to where the buttons are, overall weight, sturdiness, the ability to control what is or is not on the telephone, and the option to shove the SIM cards in from whereever you get them make a telephone "a telephone". That you can play Java games and have your choice of
There also is an end to the iPod fad. After getting "select your own" music for a year or two, you do grow sick of it. Then, it's back to the old CD, back to the radio, and even worse, back to quiet work or quiet driving.
So the question I'd ask myself is not "must i have an iPhone"; I'd ask myself, "exactly how does the iPhone compare to my current and other competitive products and how does the comparison result with respect to criteria I weigh most".
Dude, I invented the frigginn' iPod. Maybe you've heard of it??
(fakesteve.blogspot.com)
On the first count, they can keep it going if they keep going through as many generations of iPods as they seem to be doing now. For all we know, they could come out with a version that has an actual hard drive, 10 battery cells you wear on your belt and can hotswap... or how about that funky new thing they call 3g? Maybe it'll stick around long enough to have 2-way portable hologram communication. 3d-g? On that vein, Conan might have something against Dvorak http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1xXNoB3t8vM
This ought to be under "humour", not "apple". It's best to treat Dvorak's position in computer news as similar to that which Ann Coulter or Micheal Moore have in politics: opinionated punits, looking to yank chains, and all too willing to make shit up in the name of ratings. Never, ever consider him an expert. He's just an entertainer.
one thing I always love about him is how he consistently interprets even simple things into the most best sci-fi.
>With Apple's image as a 'hot company that can do no wrong' on the line
Remember the old days, when Apple could do no right?
We need to stop this Dvorak drivel getting on slashdot. It's pretty much unanimously accepted that the man is a moron, yet certain slashdot mods keep posting his articles.
Is there any way slashdotters can vote on articles like this to get them removed? I'm beginning to think digg has the right idea.
At the very least, remove the links from an article if it gets sufficient numbers of negative votes.
The general consensus seems to be that the iPhone will be a roaring success, and that any suggestion to the contrary is (a) stupid (b) malicious. But nowhere here do we see the argument addressed. The argument was that the phone market is highly competitive on both features and price, and very fast moving, and very different from Apple's other two markets, PCs and iPods. So it is being suggested that Apple will find itself unable to move fast enough, and unable to compete on price.
Whether this is true or not, it will take more than shouts of rage and abuse to refute it, because its a real argument. They do not in fact move very fast in Pods, by the standards of the phone industry. They refresh their PC line very slowly by the standards of the rest of the industry.
The risk reward ratio might favor John D on this one. Long term puts are very cheap right now, and if he turns out to be right, even if there is a low probability of his being right, the stock could easily fall by half. Cheap insurance if you own it, or cheap and good odds speculation if you don't. The issue with markets like this is not predicting them. Its how probable your predictions are, and what will happen if they are right or wrong, and what it costs to lay off your bets.
NOTE: This is not financial advice. This is an effort to make people think statistically about markets and company strategy.
Dvorak complains constantly about tech that is too hard to use, badly designed, unimaginative, software that doesn't exploit hardware, poorly integrated systems. The list goes on. He complains about MS constantly and called on Steve Jobs to do a retail OS X for generic PC's.
But when he writes Apple in his articles he is always trolling. This is because he writes for hobbyist computer magazines that don't interest most Mac users and on the other hand are read by people with an anti-Mac bias, or who need to be told that their Windows purchase was money well spent. He calls in an outside audience with his Mac-focused trolls and increases his page views and provides a little Mac-bashing fun for his core audience.
However it is ringing so hollow these days now that the Mac has been a Unix with no viruses and kickass UI and multimedia for the whole 21st century and everything else just hasn't. The iPhone just by itself is more impressive than Windows Vista, let's be real.
I'm sure we could find an old article of his on smart phones from before the iPhone came out and it would complain that smart phones have too little memory, bad interfaces, bad software, crappy OS, no Wi-Fi, poor PC connectivity, and are all ugly to boot. He might even say "when is somebody going to get it and ship a smart phone that can do the real Web?"
Even for the minute number of people who buy unlocked phones, $600 is still pretty absurd. The same amount of $$$ would buy you any number of nice PDA phones and still have change left over. An unlocked Treo costs $400 for example leaving people $200 to buy an iPod Nano if they had to.
Apple is going to tank in such a market. No matter how "cool" their phone claims to be, it is too damned expensive for most people. Their only hope of surviving is to cosy up to a network provider for the subsidy and that means crippling their phone and relinquishing a large chunk of their revenues through exclusivity and the network providers slice. And they'll have to do this in every single territory as well as negotiate the various protocols and standards that distinguish the US from Europe from Japan etc. As such I truly wonder if Apple will make any headway.
Face it, they will never stop.
We just love Dvorak articles because they generate the highest rate of (Score:5, Funny) comments ever.
if you had any creativity in your being you would realise that apple computers are about self-expression. if we have to pay a premium for that then so be it - its a choice we make. would you honestly expect the worlds most powerful personal computer to cost the same as an equivalently priced pc? http://news.com.com/2100-1042_3-5180251.html call it elitism but that is human nature for you- some people can afford to have the best and always will- its about excellence.
(btw have you noticed that all the people who moan about the fact that apple products cost a little bit more cannot afford to buy them? lol)
24, pah. I have 96 (may have miscounted). I use all but one of 'em. (Never got around to programming the "my own" button).
Watch this Heartland Institute video
OK, now imagine that post times a million, compared to your single request for something tough and simple. Now imagine that is what the feedback Nokia et al gets is. Now imagine they have a choice, spend millions doing R&D for your phone, and sell a few thousand of them, or spend millions doing R&D for the phone with removable 'XPRESS-ON COVERS', and sell a few MILLION of them.
This is what annoys me about the "all i want is a phone that RINGS PEOPLE" crowd on slashdot. You are not stupid, accept the fact that you are in the minority, that to give you a phone with less features the phone company would have to spend A LOT MORE. It is cheaper for them to sell you the same stuff everyone else wants rather than make a new cheap line that would satisfy you.
this is all not to mention that there are plenty of no-frill phones out there if you look hard enough. Try the Nokia E series for a start. Business phones, no bullshit, metal design, very tough and simple. Or the nokia 6250, tough rugged waterproof and so on. Big buttons, no camera, blah blah blah. there are plenty of options.
The premise of the original post, rhetorical or not, is that only the CEOs of multibillion $ companies can have an opinion of Steve Jobs and his iPhone. Never mind that Dvorak has a 30+ year career as a published opinion leader in the tech field, his arguments are dismissed because of who he is.
The low-brow approach is something you concur with, no doubt. Although why you believe you have the bona fides to express your opinion about my response makes me think you lack the courage of your convictions.
Please list all the cell phones or PDAs on the market with a multitouch interface.
+++ATH0
That was his last yarn that made me slap my forehead. I just find him a comedian.
Every time I hear an outsider attack a business plan without really knowing of anything about it, based solely on their own gut feelings about it I wonder why pundits have the clout that they do. There are for example, a million pre orders of iPhone thusfar. Even if 50% of those turn out to be real that's a $150 million business day one. Considering that cell phone companies are cutting their own throats with model differentiation to the point where few of them are actually making a profit (how many phones can you 'buy' for free?) maybe iPhone gets it right.
Dvorak is an outsider? No way! He's got a golden rolodex in the industry--THIS industry. How else do you think he is able to keep his franchise alive when so many other tech pundits are long gone? This is why you cannot simply dismiss his opinion--he has the knowledge and experience to put it in context.
Day one is a given, assuming Apple can even ship those million units. And Apple ordered, what, 10 million units from its contract manufacturer? It's a drop in the bucket of the cell market. The amount of cash flowing in won't even cover development and rollout cost. Apple can only hope to make $ from iPhone by selling content to them--videos and music.
Dvorak wasn't talking about day one. It's days two through n that matter, and that was his point--that Apple isn't the kind of n-day company to do more than dabble in this market. One or two bloody noses and they'll drop out. All it takes is for the iPhone battery life to be less than acceptable. Or for its batteries to spark a fire.
So, yeah, Palm is trembling in its boots, and Palm commands what tiny percent of the cell market?
Yes Yes John Dvorak is 100% right (about just about anything) and everyone is wrong. A Cassandra in the wilderness. Of course. Thanks for clearing that up.
Yes, the iphone does seem like a pretty cool idea and I initially wanted one at first. But after some reconsideration, I'm not sure if I want an iphone. It is nice to have all the features that the iphone has in a single package, but for the price that Apple is asking ($499 for 4gb and $599 for 8gb), I really don't think it's worth it. If you look hard enough you can get all the accessories the iphone has to offer for a lesser price. The web access is a very nice feature, but I personally don't need to be connected 24/7. Until the iphone is available with more capacity and/or a better camera. I listen to too much music and enjoy the high quality pictures I get from my digital camera to invest $599 into a new media device. If you really want to buy one go ahead, it seems like a really cool product. I'm just going to sit back and wait to see what the future holds for Apple and the iphone.
Guess that makes it an expensive, bloated video ipod...
I don't know if Dvorak is right, and YOU don't know if he is wrong, and I'm not willing to dismiss his reasoned opinion just because Steve Jobs showed us photos of a techie's wet dream.Hope they get that phone working...