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Asteroid Highlighted as Impact Threat
Maggie McKee writes "The asteroid Apophis has been traversing the void of space for untold years; in just a few decades time it will make a very close pass to Earth, and could make an unwelcome stop on our planet's surface. Even still, it's nothing to get too worked up about. The 20-million-tonne object has a 1 in 45,000 chance of hitting the Pacific Ocean in early April of 2036. If it did hit, it could trigger a tsunami that would do an untold amount of damage to the California coastline and many other places on Earth. Despite the low level of the threat, it's still a real enough danger to prompt the United Nations to develop a protocol about the scenario. We'll get a closeup look at the object in 2029, and at that point we should have a better idea of what 2036 will bring us."
We have some drilling to do!
If we determined in 2029 that it was going to hit in 2036, our governments probably wouldn't be able to get their shit together quickly enough to do anything.
untold amount of damage to the California coastline
Cancel that request... nothing to be worried about... nothing to see here. Move along folks..
Lindsay Blanton
RadioReference.com
That's the great untold thing about this story. For untold years, slashdot editors have been writing untold dupes, while governments around the world have been avoiding getting their untold shit together for untold years. When will the untold story be told?
... and then they built the supercollider.
...called Arizona Bay
You need more psychedelic art in your life. rhesusmonkey.deviantart.com
I like those odds!
i'll just cruise my hover car over the tsunami. it'll be such awesome fun, i can't wait.
In science-fiction writer Michael Flynn's future history starting with the novel Firestar , it's actually the fear of an asteroid that gets a corporate executive starting commercial space travel, jumping ahead of inefficient and bureacratic NASA. Well, it's been a few years now since the date Flynn suggested for the start of real orbital travel, not just the suborbital tourism we're seeing developed now. But nonetheless, I'd like to think that in the last couple of years we're showing enough progress that by 2039, we will have the technology. Even if the investment is motivated a little more by profit than by a desire to protect the human race.
I am certain that the global warming effect is causing this. Time to pour money into the problem, then get out our bibles and pray!
...not this shite again. How did we manage the millions of years prior to politicians protecting us from this? We'll be able to nuke them YEARS out, even with current technology.
Faith: n. -- That human impulse that drives them to steal appliances when the power goes out
Cut california off the map and let it float away
Not only did they kill Apophis, they also stopped an asteroid sent by Anubis.
"If we determined in 2029 that it was going to hit in 2036, our governments probably wouldn't be able to get their shit together quickly enough to do anything."
That won't matter, because in 2029 we're busy fighting Skynet.
How can you know where it would hit (Pacific Ocean) but not the exact date (only "early April of 2036")?
At least the article says "13 April 2036" which is both shorter and more accurate, so why fsck it up?
-- Thou hast strayed far from the path of the Avatar.
Don't vacation in LA during 2036.
I can sleep soundly now that I know the U.N. is on the case. /sarcasm
He is so obsessed with destroying earth to send us an asteroid and name it after himself?
>We'll get a closeup look at the object in 2029, and at that point we should have a better idea of what 2036 will bring us."
I'll stick a reminder in outlook.
Open Source Drum Kit, LPLC deve board - mjhdesigns.com
If it did hit, it could trigger a tsunami that would do an untold amount of damage to the California coastline and many other places on Earth.
DOOMSDAY PARTY IN CHICAGO! WHOOO! *plays Conga by Miami Sound Machine*
I wonder if I use bold in my signature, people will notice my posts.
...as much about the UNIX time epoch rolling over in 2038 now, do we?
Q: "Why do sound techs say 'check 1, 2'?"
A: "Cause if they could count any higher they'd be lighting techs."
1. set up an alert system:
>>(green, no asteroid)
>>(yellow, the asteroid MIGHT be near the earth)
>>(orange, be careful when answering your door, IT MIGHT BE THE ASTEROID!)
>>(red, we're already dead from the impact)
2. earmark government funds to buy swimsuits and surfboards for all californians
3. have congressional prayer sessions thanking the intelligent designer for wiping out the seat of all vice
4. only give recovery funds to predominently white areas.
5. Invade iraq in retaliation.
VLC FOR MAC IS DYING! IF YOU DEVELOP, PLEASE SAVE IT!!
"Ladies and gentlemen, my killbot features Lotus Notes and a machine gun. It is the finest available."
I'm a native of southern California, and I must say, there's not much reason to visit LA now. Maybe if the asteroid really does hit, LA will at least be a good locale for deep sea fishing. ;-)
You gotta ask yourself a question; "Do I feel lucky?". Well, do ya punk?
We'll wait until 3 weeks before it hits to do something about it!
I'd better start stocking up on canned food and ice.
They have the Internet on computers now?
This is a classic example of alarmist astronomers trying to make a name for themselves. It's a well known fact that astronomers are hailed as some of the most alarmist people in society. Most people don't know this but the earth has never in it's some 900 billion years of existance been hit by anything. The astronomers however would like you to think otherwise. The most famous thing they like to claim is that the dinosaurs were killed when an asteroid impacted the earth. This is a complete fabrication. First of all, the dinosaurs never existed. It's been recently proven that all the fossils they found were actually skeletons of elephants and giraffes, they were just put together wrong. There are also some other ludicrous claims astronomers like to make about black holes and that sort of mumbo jumbo. Modern physics have also proven most of those claims to be false. That has little to do with any specific doomsday scenarios. Though I have it on good authority that a black hole doomsday scenario was tabled at the latest United Astronomers Convention. Whether or not it'll be approved for further development has yet to be seen.
So I don't think we need to worry too much about an asteroid hitting the earth in in 63 years. If the astronomers community had their druthers they'd very likely start making claims about giant bat like monsters that live on the moon planning an invasion.
I don't own a snook, and if I did I wouldn't leave it cocked.
And a gigantic iron to stand on.
qntm.org
Just out of interest: if we don't know whether or not it's going to hit, how do we know that if it does it will land in the Pacific?
I for one welcome our new planet smashing overlords.
Support your local school shooter, give them your firearms.
We now have twenty years to elect Morgan Freeman President and build the ark in the salt beds of Missouri.
Will the UN protocol include raping the meteor?
I like big butts and I cannot lie.
I live in Phoenix. I'll have costal property to retire on without moving to Florida! The glass is way better than half full! Come on, baby needs a new beach!!!!!!
Just like SARS, the Y2K bug, or Duke Nukem Forever coming out, this is just going to hype shit up and cause unnecessary paranoia in the ignorant public. It's still rated 0 on the Torino scale. Why not submit stories of the two current 1-rated asteroids, instead?
"The 20-million-tonne object has a 1 in 45,000 chance of hitting the Pacific Ocean in early April of 2036"
And a 1 in 45,000 chance of hitting probably just about anywhere else.
Good grief if they can't predict if its even going to hit the planet why
should we give any credance to WHERE they (oh the lovely mysterious 'they')
say it will impact?
By 2036 the patent will have run out on my nanofiber rebounding material
and I'll have to let them use it for free. Damn!
Yawn!
This asteroid has a Palermo Technical Scale risk assessment of -2.52.
The PTS relates the impact risk to the background risk in a logarithmic way -- that is, the probability of Apophis hitting us is 0.003 times the probability that we will be struck by some other asteroid of equal or larger size first. Or, put another way, yes we should be worried about asteroid impacts, and yes we should keep watching Apophis, but it's not (by our understanding) a big cause to go and panic.
That said, Apophis is the second highest ranked asteroid we know about by the PTS, behind 2007 CA19 at -0.91 (potential impact in 2012). And if it gets the people with the budgets to start considering the problem, that's a good thing. Right now, though, it would seem that our best use of money is to spend more effort looking for asteroids -- so far, the number we find appears to be fairly well correlated to how hard we look, suggesting that we have found a very, very small fraction of the NEOs out there.
Oceanfront property in Arizona...and from my front porch you can see the sea....HAHAHAHA....George Strait WAS onto something.
I live in Phoenix. I'll have costal property to retire on without moving to Florida! The glass is way better than half full! Come on, baby needs a new beach!!!!!!
Obviously Lex Luthor is driving this asteroid.
What does the guide tell us?
Even still, it's nothing to get too worked up about... If it did hit, it could trigger a tsunami that would do an untold amount of damage to the California ... Despite the low level of the threat...
"She's a scientist and a lesbian. She's not going to let it slide." Orphan Black
The object 2007 CA19 has a better chance (as of right now) of hitting the Earth than 99942 Apophis (2004 MN4) does. The former is also about four times larger than the latter and would have more than double the velocity at impact if it were to hit.
The MPAA and RIAA will just blame the tsunami on piracy.
"So this is it. We're going to die."
1 in 45,000 chances of hitting Earth.
So what ? I guess nobody can deny global warming has a greater chance than that. Neverthless we continue to increase our emissions, like theres no tomorrow.
We should call the relief concert AsterAID.
"Beginning in the next few months, Schweickart's group will host a series of meetings to provide the UN with a 'decision process' for assessing and acting on the hazard posed by Apophis and other near-Earth asteroids (NEAs). A draft document ready for consideration by the United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space is expected by 2009." This sounds like anthropogenic global warming. That would be because its the same junk scientists playing to the neurotic and psychotic masses and their facilitators.
Jack O'Neill can do anything.
i fail to see the reason for concern
Not saying its time to freak out, but that really isnt that bad of odds considering we are talking being hit by a object coming from the vast expanse of space.
Thats even better odds then winning the lotto.
---- Booth was a patriot ----
Don't worry, if it comes, by then our protective shield of space debris will destroy it before it can enter the atmosphere.
"In God we trust, all others we monitor." -- Unofficial NSA motto
http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/N17363374 .htm
d ay_040412.html
To put this into perspective you have roughly a 1 in 80,000 chance of dying from an act of terrorism, almost twice the odds that this thing will strike the Earth. Now think about that. The odds of this think hitting the PLANET is greater than any 1 person being killed by a terrorist. Now look back at how much time and money has been spent on combating those that use terrorism to accomplish their goals.
Think about it where our priorities should be.
For reference, Meteor Crater in Arizona, which is about a mile wide and 500 feet deep, was created by a ~66' wide meteor. Apophis is ~450' wide. If another meteor the size of the one from Arizona were to hit a city, which is twice as likely to happen than a terrorist strike, it'd be akin to a nuclear detonation. If something the size of Apophis should strike the earth, well, say goodbye to whatever county (or small state) it lands in.
http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/mystery_mon
"On a scale from 1 to 10, people are stupid"
Scientists are starting to see how many asteroids aren't always solid objects, but very loosely compacted multiple bodies. These bodies will react much differently than the impact of a solid body. You end up getting airburst events, which will be hugely destructive. Specially if you get a situation similar to the shoe string comet impact on Jupiter.
Ah dont worry Bill has a solution he says he can wipe them all out within a few years! so back to work then...
Who really cares about California? What about Japan, Australia (although no-one cares about them either), and most of all, New Zealand? By 2036 California will be a half-drowned ghetto...
Already getting benefits from switching to Linux
Hicks, is that you? Did you find your contact lens?
Starcraft is based on Starship Troopers, and everyone knows reality likes to emulate fiction. The asteroid itself won't harm us as much as the alien space insects that come out.
God spoke to me.
It is nice to see the author realized that Calif. was not the only place that bordered the Pacific. I wonder if the ships from China at San Pedro tipped him off, or maybe he's heard of Australia (no not the one with the Blue Danube, the other one).
this asteroid is all george bush's fault, and i feel that we need to have senate hearings and call in the fema director and ask him what he plans to do to stop that thing. hold on, i have another idea: let's make sure hillary is president when the thing gets closer and she can sell it as real estate to aliens, pocket the money, and lie about all of it...the entire problem will go away.
"you may disagree with me, but i would lay down my life to defend your right to do so..."
Unix time runs out in 2038, we gotta see what that's like!
The picture is stupid, they say the asteroid is 20-million-tonnes, say it has the (quite low) density of water, 1tonne/m^3, say it weighs actually weighs much more 10^9 tonnes so 10^9 m^3 or a cube with 1 km sides. In the picture the asteroid is way way larger.
had it been named Apoptosis - EVERYBODY PANIC!
Did anyone else know that it is actually do to hit on April 13th... and it is a Friday. /not joking
That should be "untolled" as in, never counted or can't be counted....not "untold" like someone knows it, they just aren't saying.
:>
And freedem? It reigns, not rains, or rings.
That's all.
That only 3 other people on Slashdot get that reference... and *I* don't have mod points today :-(
I'm trying to teach myself to set people on fire with my mind... Is it hot in here?
Hopefully this doesn't hit us... but think of the positive if it did. Imagine the science research we could get out of the impact. Sound's like the plot to a scifi book or something.
Most people aren't thought about after they're gone. "I wonder where Rob got the plutonium" is better than most get.
if you count voyager, then the majority of the general male population has at least a passing interest in star trek, so how is that unusual?
If we can find a way of tilting the earth by that time so the asteroid hits the nation on earth that will be causing problems at that time ...
20 million tons? Probably flying into the Earth at near light speeds? And you fools think it's just going to do some coastal damage to California? From where I come from this sounds like a formula for breaking the Earth into millions of little shards. The only living things that would survive would be small things like cockroaches that would be able to cling onto their own bit of rock and survive the recoagulation of the planet. Mankind would likely be wiped from the face of the Earth (not too much of a loss really) except for the billion to one odds that someone would actually survive the recoagulation. Based on the weight and speed of such an impact, I would say the energy released would be the equivalent of 200 million billion Hiroshimas. The only thing we can hope for now is that the Niburu of Planet X return to Earth to save us all. The only bad thing about that would be the deal that the Bush administration and the Cheney crime famliy cut with them to enslave everyone but the power elite. Go check out rense.com, it's all too true and all too horrible.
-"...bad old ideas look confusingly fresh when they are packaged as technology" - Jaron Lanier (Digital Maoism on Edge.o
2007 CA19 is 4x the diameter of 2004 MN4, yet is about 50x more massive & would, due to velocity, produce an impact of 350x the amount of energy of 2004 MN4 (140,000 Megatons versus 400 Megatons). In theory!
Otisburg.
The coastline might make a break for it first. It might prove necessary to accelerate the asteroid to prevent this.
It's a small world and it smells funny; I'd buy another if it wasn't for the money; Take back what I paid (SoM)
You're a PhD, right?
So if I want to be a sex offender and get away with it, the first step is to burn all my Star Trek uniforms, prosthetic ears, etc.?
Sometimes on IRC, they lie.
Am I the only person wondering whether this could be Space Godzilla, and whether we have enough miniature tanks to fend it off, or just the only one brave enough to admit it? Surely we could preemptively create our own Godzilla now to counter this potential weapon of mass scaliness.
Excellent! I guess we can keep using a 32-bit time_t after all!
http://outcampaign.org/
What's everyone so worked up about? So there's a comet -- big
deal. It'll burn up in our atmosphere and what's ever left will
be no bigger than a chihuahua's head.
Wow, Dad, maybe you're right.
Of course I'm right. If I'm not, may we all be horribly crushed
from above somehow.
If you could reason with religious people, there would be no religious people
Actually, "nothing to see here. Move along folks.." is pretty close to the mark. On Friday the thirteenth in 2029 (no kidding) when Apophis passes by the earth, it must pass thru a 600 meter (667 yard) 'window' in order to strike the Earth in 2036 (again, on Friday the thirteenth). Long before 2029 we will know whether this will happen. If so, the plan is to rendezvous with Aphophis in 2029 (or before). At this point, the very slight gravational tug of the spacecraft will be enough to change Apophos's orbit to miss us.
and yet I wonder why people of world are not united to build a space colony to increase their survival? hmm.
If another meteor the size of the one from Arizona were to hit a city, which is twice as likely to happen than a terrorist strike, it'd be akin to a nuclear detonation. If something the size of Apophis should strike the earth, well, say goodbye to whatever county (or small state) it lands in.
If this puppy is aimed at the USA then I sure hope Canada sets up a system that requires passports and all sorts of red tape for anyone from the USA who wishes to visit our country!
Of course if any Americans think they might want to visit Russia, then I hope they get treated the same as Dimitris Sklyrov. Anyone who doesn't know what the USA did to him can ask google. The short of it is that he was thrown in jail for months and criminally charged because he exposed the pitifully bad security measures employed by Adobe in its eBook products.
It would be nice if was goes around comes around.
Armagain: Humans Die Hard
In America you will be protected from harm by FEMA etc. Dont worry, nothing to panic about.
:)
I hear they are keeping the FEMA camps pretty warm these days for scenarios such as this
http://video.google.com/videosearch?q=fema+camp
The article mentions that potential 'threat asteroids' are being tracked, and hopefully all potential threats will soon be identified for closer observation.
I remember reading years ago on slashdot about a near-miss that occured during daylight hours, when a global-catastrophe sized asteroid approached earth from the sun and passed between the moon and earth. Does anybody remember this? And the asteroid wasn't even detected until it had already passed.
What about asteroids that can be slingshot from behind the sun, or elude detection as that one did (because the sun was in our eyes?). The article doesn't mention if there's always going to be an un-trackable region of space. Does anybody more versed in this know, with current technology and a little more time, will we really be able to track all potential, immediate threats?
---
This is an immediate threat!
Ace
Isn't that when Unix time overflows signed 32bit integers? So they are kind of a downcounter? All that doomsday talk about Y2K was nonsense, since they are not running Windows machines or COBOL in heaven?
And instead of upgrading their systems to 64 bit, they now obliterate Earth?
Makes one wonder what they were trying to cover up with the flood. Or wth Sodom and Gomorrha.
The UN's getting involved, so that means it will probably take until 2036 for anything to actually happen.
So I guess it's good we get started now.
It's always confirmation bias!
Buy now and in 30 years you could own prime Nevada beach-front property!
This asteroid has been known about since 2004. The odds of it striking earth have been changed several times, the last time in October 2006 when the odds were actually decreased. What's the story here again?
i shall now sell my balls and kiss my ass goodbye..... no wait... strike that... i'm gonna kick some astroid ass with my baseball bat.
Dear Asteroid,
We are very concerned about your approach to Earth. It would be nice if you could find someplace else to hit. If you disregard this warning, hit Earth, and kill several million people, our next letter will not be so nice. You have been warned. Good day!
Sincerely,
United Nations
q.v. http://www.astroday.net/AstroTalk35.html - the panel featured Dave Tholen (discoverer of Apophis, and colorful Usenet figure), Ed Lu (NASA Shuttle and ISS astronaut and co-inventor of the "gravity tractor" idea) and a couple guys from the Pan-STARRS asteroid-hunting project.
Village idiot in some extremely smart villages.
Why is it that, just like in the movies, America has to be in the centre of the universe. An object from outer space is coming to threat us, and what do you know? "California" is at risk. How arrogant! I mean what the hell? Here's why it is super uber-arrogant: if there is a 1 in 45000 chance, and then *IF* it hits the earth at all, it could really hit *anywhere* on earth. North, south, slightly earlier, slightly later, all factors that will completely make the outcome just about 100% unpredictable as to where exactly it will hit, if at all. So right away, "California" is at risk. Seriously, you people need to get your heads checked.
You live in Phx and think the ocean coming over the Rockies would work out well for you??? Well I've been to Phoenix and I'd tend to agree with you.
You need more psychedelic art in your life. rhesusmonkey.deviantart.com
2004BX159
2004FU162
2005TM153
2006CD
2006SF681
The soonest is 4/01/07 for 2004FU162, but it is only 6 meters wide(9 kiloton impact)
All are pretty low probability, but possible
Check out this site to stay up to date:
http://www.hohmanntransfer.com/crt.htm
Slashdot has covered Apophis (2004 MN4) before, in late 2004:
Introducing Asteroid 2004 MN4
2004 MN4, Even Higher Probability
Do that and you might have a chance of getting a date. You know, with a real adult woman. Ok, a small chance, but it's still a chance.
It would be so cool to witness an asteroid strike, or really near miss. Unfortunately, 2036 is about 5 years past my statistical life expectancy so I'll have to beat the numbers a bit to see the show.
You never really know how close to the edge you can go until you fall off.
Revelations talks about a "star" that falls from heaven and causes the waters to go bitter and kills a 3rd of the ocean. Sounds like this one... in the bible it is referenced as wormwood.