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US Forgets How To Make Trident Missiles
Hugh Pickens writes "The US and the UK are trying to refurbish the aging W76 warheads that tip Trident missiles to prolong their life and ensure they are safe and reliable but plans have been put on hold because US scientists have forgotten how to manufacture a mysterious but very hazardous component of the warhead codenamed Fogbank. 'NNSA had lost knowledge of how to manufacture the material because it had kept few records of the process when the material was made in the 1980s, and almost all staff with expertise on production had retired or left the agency,' says the report by a US congressional committee. Fogbank is thought by some weapons experts to be a foam used between the fission and fusion stages of the thermonuclear bomb on the Trident Missile and US officials say that manufacturing Fogbank requires a solvent cleaning agent which is 'extremely flammable' and 'explosive,' and that the process involves dealing with 'toxic materials' hazardous to workers. 'This is like James Bond destroying his instructions as soon as he has read them,' says John Ainslie, the co-ordinator of the Scottish Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament, adding that 'perhaps the plans for making Fogbank were so secret that no copies were kept.' Thomas D'Agostino, administrator or the US National Nuclear Security Administration, told a congressional committee that the administration was spending 'a lot of money' trying to make 'Fogbank' at Y-12, but 'we're not out of the woods yet.'"
you can download the instruction from the Pirate Bay...
Excellent. Lets hope they can't make it and it means they have to get rid of them. Due to the current economic crisis, hopefully they can't afford to come up with a replacement.
In the current global climate, there's no point in having nuclear missiles. Those who could strike us are no longer interested and are now allies and those who are hostile and nuclear capable can't reach us.
I only please one person per day. Today is not your day. Tomorrow isn't looking good either. - Scott Adams
Just get Gordon Ramsay to taste it. He'll tell you what's in it.
"Oops". Sometimes I'm not sure if I'm reading Slashdot or Dave's Blog.
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A similar problem exists with the SR-71's engines: some key documentation was destroyed in the interests of secrecy, which has greatly complicated maintenance work on the remaining aircraft.
Maybe we shouldn't be refurbishing these warheads, then? Who, precisely, will we be using them on?
Let Dr. Gaius Baltar reverse engineer the missiles and contruct a superior refurbished version (like an old MacBook with a new main board and fat harddrive).
I think this speaks of a larger problem in how the US government organizes itself. NASA had the same issue with some spaceship components because new people were not trained on how legacy systems were built. This issue is happening through many departments in the US government. The US government's extreme isolationism and disinformation for public forums allows them to be years ahead in technology that could help the general public, but means that the people can't benefit from the technology they fund until it has been independently discovered or rendered a relic by some new technology.
Mission Impossible, yes. James Bond, no.
How about you just decommission the warheads and missiles?
I mean Obama is all about curtailing military spending. Here's a good cut, right? /hippyliberalantiweaponcommentary
"All great wisdom is contained in .signature files"
I'm sure it's in there in.
We need to get back the ol' American ingenuity and CAN-DO attitude! Remember we Uh-Mericans can do anything!
This is why it's important to document your code... or your warheads. Either or.
Dedicated Cthulhu Cultist since 4523 BC.
The material in the design specification was essentially unobtanium. It couldn't be manufactured at all. Quietly, the manufacturing engineers developed a solution that almost met all of the design specifications, and this was an excellent compromise. Unfortunately, the design engineers couldn't be convinced to sign off on the design change because of quality procedure 15, and military qualification 7. However, the biggest reason the design engineers wouldn't sign off on the change was because of a supposedly critical but practically useless mandatory project requirement, like the missile must work when fired in -40 degree water from 20 feet under the polar ice shelf.
The manufacturing engineers decided that the "fire nuclear missile while under ice shelf function", probably wouldn't be used, so the modified material was actually just fine. They shipped the missiles, got paid, and everyone was happy. Until now, when someone tries to "fix" the original "fix".
This story has happened before and will happen again. Whenever you bump into a design that requires a part that "does not exist", watch out for the possibility that the part never did "exist". It could be that you are reading a "design" document, and not what manufacturing actually built. I've worked in manufacturing, and there are lots of stories about impossible to make designs that somehow got shipped.
My European grandmother made a cake that could easily withstand the middle stages of a nuclear explosion.
While I am very concerned about this, I am not surprised at all. It is by coincidence that I was reading this website and found out that despite perceived Russian problems, the USA is at least a decade behind Russia in missile technology!
Below are two snippets of the whole article. Scary!
"Despite the Pentagon's development of a new generation of hypersonic missile, the U.S. is still a decade behind Russia in high-speed cruise-missile design, according to defense analysts. According to the Defense Advanced Research Project Agency, the U.S. military is developing a new hypersonic robot missile reported to be capable of traveling in excess of six times the speed of sound and armed with its own miniature smart bombs. The new weapon, called the Advanced Rapid Response Missile Demonstrator, or ARRMD, is designed to cruise at over 4,000 miles an hour and strike targets hundreds of miles away in only a few seconds. "
"Nevertheless, defense analysts agree that the U.S. is fully a decade behind Russia in high-speed cruise missile designs. Russia currently deploys and exports the supersonic SS-N-22 Moskit cruise missile, NATO codenamed "Sunburn." The SS-N-22 is considered the most lethal anti-ship missile in the world, and flies at over 2.5 times the speed of sound only a few feet from the surface of the water." [This speed amounts to almost 1,700 miles per hour, or 28 miles per minute]."
Folks, we can't let this happen.
since we can't remember how to make the 1980's era stuff, let's make something new and innovative.
really? We would rather have stuff from the 1980's?
They're using their grammar skills there.
There is a serious side to this. The US hasn't actually built any nukes, stuck 'en on a rocket, fired them and had a successful BOOM for well over 40 years. That must be coming up for 2 generations of rocket / nuclear scientists and the third generation is now in training. That means that the "new guys" will learn from people who didn't have any practical experience and in turn learned from the people who actually *did it* nearly 50 years ago.
politicians are like babies' nappies: they should both be changed regularly and for the same reasons
is tar!
It doesn't mean much now, it's built for the future.
Some old guy fly-fishing in the middle of nowhere when a black helicopter lands nearby and three beefy men in suits and black sunglasses hop out.
"Excuse the interruption of your retirement, Doctor, but you're going to need to come with us..."
You don't value something until you lose it. Applies to dating, business, and top secret government projects.
Think Deeply.
"In the current global climate, there's no point in having nuclear missiles"
Right, because russia isn't being beligerant, Iran isn't keeping up its worn out Death to the USA rhetoric and hasn't just developed a ballistic missle capable of carrying nuclear missiles, various islamic groups arn't trying to obtain fissile material etc etc.
"and are now allies "
Really? Tell that to Georgia (the european country).
"who are hostile and nuclear capable can't reach us"
Yes, because making a rocket go a few extra thousand miles is such a challenge compared to developing a nuclear bomb.
Well, if you showed me some dough I "might" remember sir.
Just imagine this scenario...
1) You have the blueprints and technology
2) Hide blueprints and "forget" about technology
3) Ask for budget to redevelop
4) Redevelop using hidden blueprints
5) ???
6) Profit!
- "They misunderestimated me."
I may be large, but I'm not a building!
Sorry to point this out but it looks like it already has. Anyway , the russians have always been pretty smart when its come to high speed kit whether it be rocket motors or jet fighters. Look how far ahead of their time the Mig 25 foxbat and Mig 29 fulcrum were/are.
See, this is what happens when you don't continue to spend money on extremely advanced engineering projects: you lose the technology. Technology isn't just a textbook and some blueprints, it requires the experience and knowledge of scientists and engineers. It's a living thing: shelve it, and it dies.
It would be nice to think this would serve as an abject lesson to congresscritters, next time they think about cutting funding for something 'we don't need right now.' Although I'm cynical enough not to believe that.
... or whatever these guys are called now. Maybe they haven't lost their copy of the plans yet. Of course, don't make a big buzz about it and bring a few suitcases full of gold in exchange for the favor.
When I worked for a defense contractor, I always dreamed of being the single point of failure for something very important and leaving the company.
Charge an extremely high hourly rate retired folks. Repair your 401K!
Except for ending slavery, the Nazis, communism, & securing American independence, war has never solved anything.
You've got to read secret alien to make sense out of the owners' manual.
Nuclear weapons are not meant to "win". They are meant to ensure everyone loses. That in and of itself is the deterrent to using nuclear weapons.
almost all staff with expertise on production had retired or left the agency
... a highly paid consultant! If they left but they have the knowledge, pay them 10x what they used to make to get them to tell you how to do it... I thought this is how defense contracting worked, so why haven't they thought of this?
rooooar
That's the problem with securing your documents, you secure them so well that even you forget what the hell you were securing in the first place. Maybe they'll forget how to send people to war..hmm could that be the key to peace on earth? give US government alzheimers.
Having worked at this facility in the '80's as an engineer, I can say definitively that this scenario is either misunderstood, or incorrectly reported, or deliberately obfuscated, or a lie, or postulated from sketchy evidence, but it is factually and wholly wrong.
Every project for every material or product, special or otherwise, was properly documented. These files would not be destroyed. (Note here that I'm assuming the files on "fogbank" were not lost in an accident or by malicious destruction.)
Now, has the practical and hands-on knowledge of the step-by-step, moment-by-moment synthesis reaction to make this material been lost? Perhaps in the course of 25 years it has. Lots of people have left the plant since then. But all the information, notations and observations necessary to reconstruct the process/project do exist, I assure you.
Perhaps we can buy back the plans from China? Thank Clinton for selling them most of our nuclear secrets.
He wasn't selling secrets, he was making backups!
"You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
They need Brawndo.
Torgo's Executive Powder might come in handy, too.
Disclaimer: The opinions and actions of the US Gov't are in no way representative of those held by this author or its ci
"Scientists" haven't forgotten how to manufacture this stuff. The USA has forgotten how to manufacture this stuff. That's what happens when you stop thinking about science.
All this was true at the beginning of the Bush presidency. None of it is true after.
May the Maths Be with you!
I think if you want to survive, as a nation, the best thing to do in response to a nuclear attack by a terrorist organization would be to STFU and fucking NOT retaliate.
This is the equivallent of telling a rape victim to lay back and enjoy it.
No.
On second thought, HELL NO.
You, sir/madam, are an imbecile.
As to the rest of the manure you're shoveling about the world being a better place if the US disappeared? Well, that really doesn't require an answer, now does it?
Chas - The one, the only.
THANK GOD!!!
Ask the KGB.
Yeah, everyone knows the UN UNNazi'd the world...forever.
Anyone else think the comments just weren't rendering right before they turned off ABP and saw ads?
"Fogbank is the most secure modification of Trident missile warheads in the world."
"I know that."
"Do you know why it's so thoroughly secure?"
"Well, presumably because knowledge of its manufacture is severely restricted."
"No! Knowledge of its manufacture is non-existent. No one knows how to make Fogbank! No one at all!"
"So, if our source is correct, the only person who knows how to make Fogbank lives somewhere in there."
"Which makes him about the only thing that does."
"At least we'll recognize him when we see him even if we don't recognize it when we see him, if he's the only one there, if you see what I mean."
"Oh, shut up."
"I'm just trying to help!"
Oh, say does that Star-Spangled Banner entwine / The myrtle of Venus with Bacchus's vine?
And people wonder why I think the best way to secure peace is to get rid of the US...
I don't know why you think that, but the rest of the world doesn't exactly have a good track record in keeping the peace. Look at Europe before the US started stationing soldiers there in 1941 - two world wars. Or look at the parts of the world the US isn't interested in, such as Sub-Saharan Africa.
-- Support a free market in the field of government
Nukes are actually very cost effective.
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How does nuking thousands of Japanese civilians un-nazi the world?
Well, how many sneak attacks did they launch prior to having their asses handed to them vs how many they've launched since? It wasn't just Pearl Harbor you know -- virtually every war of aggression they launched came without a Declaration of War. It's not our fault they bit off more than they could chew when they attacked the United States. They should be thankful the war ended before the Soviets had a chance to get really involved -- imagine if Japan had been divided like Germany?
I want peace on earth and goodwill toward man.
We are the United States Government! We don't do that sort of thing.
Ah, reference the Rape of Nanking..
According to a friend that did a stint in high level strategy at NASA, that's not really an urban legend. When the project was shelved, the documents were more or less destroyed. Our Shuttle launch capacity isn't the same as then, and we really don't have the capacity to just "put err up." It's not that the blueprints are gone, one presumes that a certain level of that was archived, and reverse engineering the rest of the tech wouldn't be the issue, but you are right about the industrial base.
Also, changing environmental and work conditions would prevent just throwing together the Saturn V. Also, engineers of today don't have the same skill sets as back then. I never learned drafting, the core of engineering then. The archived records would presumably let skilled engineers recreate the project, but we don't have the same skills. Reorienting NASA for the Mars mission was a complete reorg of most of the agency, and a LOT of the work is recreating our technology from the space race with modern techniques and materials, because the old stuff doesn't exist.
Same reason you can't buy a 57 Chevy new... it's not that GM couldn't make a similar truck, but with modern environmental and CAFE standards, you couldn't recreate the classics, even if all the plans were there, and the guys working the lines are trained for robotic factories, you couldn't just recreate the 57 lines.
Technology has moved how far since the 80's? I am talking out my ass, but wouldn't it be cheaper and more efficient to just buy someone's newer DARPA creation instead?
Tell that to Georgia (the european country).
Couple of points, if you ever actually visited Georgia, you would have a hard time calling it a "Euopean country" with a straight face. It is a typical Southern Caucaus mountain territory, and the only wiff of Europe is what has been bought with bribe money from US and EU... As far as the Georgias "problems" they are self inflicted, THEY attacked Ossetia and tried to commit genocide and were thwarted. If you dig into the history of Georgias modern borders as they are today you will see that it is a country created by its native son, Stalin. Its borders were created through forced relocation of the native population of Ossetia, Abkhazia, etc.
I will not be pushed, filed, stamped, indexed, briefed, debriefed or numbered. My life is my own.
> non-nuclear weapons with megaton yields
No such thing. The largest thermobaric weapons have yields in the tens or at most hundreds of tons.
From Wikipedia:
How does nuking thousands of Japanese civilians un-nazi the world?
By the end of WWII the Japanese were ready to fight to the last Japanese. Not the last Japanese soldier, the last Japanese. The US was also ready to fight to the last Japanese. For example, they got so many purple hearts (the wounded soldier decoration) made, they still had supplied in 2000.
If it hadn't been for Hiroshima and Nagasaki, Japanese culture might have gone the way of the Sioux. A remnant would have survived, but only a remnant.
-- Support a free market in the field of government
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It's got electrolytes.
Scientists point out problems, engineers fix them
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How many of those civilians supported that decision? In my view, if even one of those thousands of civilians was against attacking the US, the bombing was not worth it.
I have no problem with defense. If someone attacks, by all means fight back. But when you retaliate a sneak attack on a military base with an attack that causes more than 100x as many deaths, many of them civilians, then you've overstepped your right. That's a criminal act.
That "supposedly critical but practically useless mandatory project requirement" is the result of experience. Inexperienced engineers often make the mistake of assuming that if they can't understand why the requirement exists, it must be arbitrary.
Perhaps this is apocryphal, but during the Cold War, submarines would routinely get stuck under polar ice floes. Having a missile which would work when fired from underneath the polar ice was probably a very large concern for the system designers. Had the engineers pointed out the impossibility of this requirement, it is possible that military doctrine would have been changed to reflect the limitations of the technology. If you are correct about the difference between requirements, design, and actual manufacture, then the actions of these engineers (or perhaps bureaucrats) put the entire United States at risk of nuclear holocaust. Had the Soviets known this during the Cold War, they might have been more willing to risk a nuclear confrontation.
The society for a thought-free internet welcomes you.
In my view, if even one of those thousands of civilians was against attacking the US, the bombing was not worth it.
So we should have invaded them instead? Take a look at what the Japanese civilians on Saipan did when confronted with defeat and tell me that less of them would have died if we had invaded the Japanese home islands.
But when you retaliate a sneak attack on a military base with an attack that causes more than 100x as many deaths, many of them civilians, then you've overstepped your right. That's a criminal act.
War isn't supposed to be pretty. When you mobilize the entire resources of your nation to fight said war then the entire resources of your nation become legitimate targets. Call it criminal all you want but we didn't start the war. We just ended it as quickly as possible.
I want peace on earth and goodwill toward man.
We are the United States Government! We don't do that sort of thing.
They probably have better records of US nuclear technology than we do.
Let's be honest, Russia's claims of georgian 'genocide' were about as accurate as western europe's claims of serbian ethnic cleansing in kosovo...
Just standard NATO and russia taking political potshots at eachother by getting involved in someone else's civil war.
I admit I had never heard of this before, so I did a quick search. From the first sentence: The Nanking massacre "was a genocidal war crime committed by the Japanese military in Nanjing (Nanking)" (emphasis mine).
Tell me again how nuking thousands of civilians is justified here?
and those who are hostile and nuclear capable can't reach us.
...yet...
This is exactly why most of the world has an unshakeable conviction that Americans are adolescents. It seems that America has no identity at all if it isn't fighting the perennial "last war", whether it be against Russians, Muslims or others as yet unnamed.
Uh, GP's point was that imperial japan and nazi germany were rather different things..
Yup, maybe we shouldn't be refurbishing them at all. Maybe we'll have to go to Congress and ask for hundreds of millions to develop a new one. I can feel funding astroturfing coming on...
It's Rogaine foam formula. It's a hair restoration product and a hair destruction product too!
Oh, great, you must belong to some religion that believes in reincarnation, right? All your suffering in this life will be repaid in the next?
Because giving bullies an assurance that they can do anything and you will not retaliate is the best way to handle such people. After all, look how well this policy has worked in the past
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Thanks. Although I will argue the attack was unwarranted no matter what, you are correct in that my original point was that Japan is not Germany.
Come on, China has stolen every single US military secret since we started keeping records. They have it on file and I think their darknets now support searchable torrents. Just search "USA Trident Missle" and download the ISOs.
In essence they have to re-invent the wheel. A lot of the engineering docs for Apollo are lost to time.
Lets not even talk about the data. Though that is a problem of failing to make media transitions.
Now there's an oxymoron.
NASA is also suffering the same issue with its latest rockets, in that everyone who knew anything about the Apollo missions has left, and they actually had to call in some old engineers to help. I really believe, at least for the space side of things we need to develop a Wiki where are space related technology can be documented. We could worry about some of this technology getting into the hand of a 'rogue nation', but from what I can tell these nations already have access to the technology, one way or another. What they don't necessarily have access to are the funds or the people capable of applying the knowledge.
Jumpstart the tartan drive.
Russia reached out to Ossetia for several reasons, not the least of which is the fact that the vast majority of Ossetia is actually a part of Russia already (called Northern Ossetia) and Russia has been trying to make good with its Caucaus regions like Ossetiya, Dagestan, Chechnya, Ingushetia. Georgians going balls out, pulling GRAD systems to the outskirts of Tskhinvali and raining hell on civilians, gave Russia an opportunity to look like heroes to the local populace, and to swing their military dick to remind the world that the bear is not dead yet. As far as getting involved in someone elses civil wars its the foundation of our military economy :)
I will not be pushed, filed, stamped, indexed, briefed, debriefed or numbered. My life is my own.
Politicians come from regular public. Garbage in, garbage out. (who said that?)
In theory there is no difference between theory and practice. In practice there is. - Yogi Berra
well, georgians were shelling a sleeping city. it is not an actual genocide but georgians still got what they deserved for that.
"It's such a fine line between stupid and clever" -- David St. Hubbins, Spinal Tap
Projected casuaties for the invasion of Japan for Allied Troops was over half a million. After our experiences on Siapan where 10,000 Japanese civilians committer suicide rather than surrender, expected Japanese civilian casualties for the invasion of the Japanese homeland were in the millions. Seems far more humane to end it rapidly, than to continue the was with far more japanese civilain casulaties.
Um, what? Turn the other cheek is only a better survival strategy if you don't have a weapon you know how to use. If you do have one, fighting back is by far the better survival strategy.
... we don't even know what we're doing !
I knew that IE was kind of a WMD.
But I think they did not forget how to make it. Their developers just died from looking at the code.
What a wonderful day for humanity.
Now we just have to wait until IE8 is rotten to death.
___
Hint to moderators: If you think this is off-topic, you didn't get it.
Any sufficiently advanced intelligence is indistinguishable from stupidity.
"I think if you want to survive, as a nation, the best thing to do in response to a nuclear attack by a terrorist organization would be to STFU and fucking NOT retaliate"
It shows how child-like you are to say such a thing. And that's not a compliment.
The best deterrent to an attack is to let the enemy know that if they attack, they will be destroyed utterly and without delay. I know you think the world is all filled with people who just want to get along and conflict is a result of misunderstanding between people. It's not.
And yes, I realize that you're speaking hypothetically of a terrorist attack. One where they figure out how to build a working A-Bomb and a delivery mechanism. But once you discover the enemy, you must destroy them utterly. Destroy their family, their way of life, everything about them.
Conflict arises when you have something that I want. Land, resources, even ideological differences but they all amount to the same thing. I'm going to compel you to do something or take something from you. And I'm willing to do it because I think you're too weak to resist me.
Do you have any clue why the US and USSR never fought WW III? It's because each side was afraid of the consequences of a war. It was so awful that it was better to yell at each other from a distance and fight some skirmishes than engage in outright war.
As to the "millions have families". Of course they do. Which makes them think really hard about engaging in a war with the United States.
The idea that a good defense is a provocative stance is frankly idiotic. The idea that I will destroy you, your family, your way of life, your lands... everything! if you attack keeps you at a safe distance shouting slogans. That's the way it should be.
Yes you do. Go read Out of Ashes series by William W. Johnstone. Only true way to remove all evil is to kill it were it stands. To show the world if you step out of line, expect the person you messed with to do it 2-fold back. You shouldn't get off easy if you decide to go around and be a "Tough guy". Your butt should be placed against the wall and that person who you abused should choose your punishment! Lucky America is around to tell "terrorist" organizations that we aren't here to play nice or fair. We are here to live in peace and everyone should live in peace.
I'm sure some shady arms dealer can get them the red mercury they require
Pssst! Technically, they are still at war.
Though I understand your point, even if I don't wholey agree with it.
Violating someones right to choose and taking away their freedom is without any doubt valid cause for retaliation. To re-assert that freedom lethal force may be necessary. All throughout history force has been used to earn back freedom.
When an attacker uses force against another human, that victim has every right to use force to defend themselves.
At the risk of "escalating" this discussion... ;)
If you want to argue about the size of our arsenal that's one thing. I was responding to the flower child that thinks we should get rid of all of our nuclear weapons -- which is clearly not going to happen under even the rosiest of scenarios.
While I do think that ultimately, it would be nice for total nuclear disarmament of all countries, I did not imply dismantling our entire nuclear stockpile, nor do I think that it's possible to do this tomorrow. I was talking strictly about the missiles and warhead with this problem, which I think most people got when they read my comment. Perhaps you could clarify what I said before dismissing this flower child? :)
My comments come thickly laced with irony so don't take me so seriously as to think I want to debate the merits of a nuclear arsenal with you.
"All great wisdom is contained in .signature files"
The American team packed this stuff up and shipped it off to India, they (the American) teams were forced to transition the knowledge, and then they were given 90 days to find new jobs.
The Indian outsourcer initially provided packing foam, which didn't meet project specifications. They took a second pass with aluminum cans, which still didn't work. Then as they tried to correct the problem the whole team to which it was outsourced got better paying jobs and the IP was lost. The division VP claimed victory with a cost reduction and since there were no immediate orders for the foam that couldn't be filled nobody could or would bludgeon him with the reality, that they lost a competency that was mission critical. ;-)
Yes, I'm joking. Doesn't make it untrue.
~Religion is O.K., as long as it gets you laid.
> 'NNSA had lost knowledge of how to manufacture the material because it had kept
> few records of the process when the material was made in the 1980s, and almost
> all staff with expertise on production had retired or left the agency'
Christ, it's called a cash hemorrhage inducement for consultation, and it shouldn't be a problem for a government spending in excess of $3+ trillion a year and growing rapidly. Offering 10 guys a million each to consult would raise the budget barely 0.0003%
(-1: Post disagrees with my already-settled worldview) is not a valid mod option.
Just ask 5 dentists.
Anybody want a peanut?
So you mean they were accurate ?
Idiot.
Most people don't realise that a nuclear bomb isn't really all that bad in the context of total war. It's big, but not really that big.
A single nuclear bomb is comparable to thousands of tonnes of TNT. That sounds big, but the problem is, we were already dropping thousands of tonnes of TNT on civilian areas. Radiation burns are a little scary, but no scarier than the actual burns caused by the massive fires when the allies firebombed Tokyo (More people were killed by the firebombing of Tokyo than either Hiroshima or Nagasaki).
Somehow, people have forgotten that war is shit. It's not glamorous. It's not honourable. War is like an animal clawing and biting to eat through a corpse to avoid drowning, ugly and without any redeeming aesthetic qualities. The mad scramble to survive no matter what the cost, against all morality.
It's been a long time.
We can no longer remember how to make stuff we made 25 years ago. America is indeed getting stupider, not just me.
Fogbank is made from PEOPLE!!!
Cities would seem to be the most viable option, but we'd kill millions of innocents along with the bad guys.
Any adult that sits by idly and permits their government to commit atrocities cannot be considered innocent. We in the U.S. are not innocent of the actions of our government, nor is anyone in any other country regardless of the type of government they have.
The only truly innocent are the children.
I read Slashdot for the headlines, because the headlines, unlike the articles, are usually original and never duplicated
So are you saying it's OK to END A LIFE over a nebulous concept like virginity? You are a sick, sick person. We're talking about a LIFE here. Someone's child. You can't just murder them over something as transient as a rape.
What if the rapist has AIDS? What if he intends to kill his victim so she can't testify against him? The very act of raping someone places them in danger of death -- thus deadly force is justified in response to rape. You might also want to look up the definition of murder:
The unlawful killing of one human by another, especially with premeditated malice.
Self-defense != murder
I want peace on earth and goodwill toward man.
We are the United States Government! We don't do that sort of thing.
I'm in Afghanistan right now.
Scorched earth? Not likely. All our efforts are are focussed on either rebuilding Afghan state capacity (police, fire, hospital, army, and government institutions) or on providing security for those rebuilding efforts.
The Afghans scorched their own earth during the civil war that followed the end of the Soviet occupation (and the Soviets gave them a good head start). Al Quaida and the Taliban occupied the law vacuum left by the collapse of the Afghan government.
The tough part about the Afghan mission is attempting to build reliable, non-corrupt government institutions in a land where almost nobody has any experience with a life in a place that is governed by rule of law. That's the major obstacle.
The Afghan mission is marked by its LACK of revenge-based policy. It is Marshall Plan 2 (although not as well funded or manned, to its detriment)
DG
Want to learn about race cars? Read my Book
After the ossetians spend how many months shelling georgia?
OMG that is soooo funny! Can you imagine what one of the engineers or techs will say when they get that call that their country needs them, and they've been treated like fucking shit?!!! I'd laugh my fucking ass off, and tell them I want a couple of million dollars just to look at the issue with no promise that I'd fix it! Cha-fucking-ching!!!$$$$$$
http://www.theonion.com/content/node/43014
Apparently, not only the CIA is affected...
No, you should have negotiated more. Make a few small concessions - allowing the emperor to remain in power, perhaps.
When you mobilize the entire resources of your nation to fight said war then the entire resources of your nation become legitimate targets.
Bollocks; and, I suspect, only said at all because your nation never had its civilian towns bombed.
Call it criminal all you want but we didn't start the war. We just ended it as quickly as possible.
(The US contribution to the war, particularly if measured in terms of lives lost, is relatively small, and it irritates me when you try and claim all the credit, but leaving that aside) No, the quickest way to end it would've been to surrender. Even given that the war needed to be thought, do you really think Dresden/Kobe/Hirishima/Nagasaki shortened the war any? Did they save more lives than they cost? They didn't succeed in halting industrial production (in at least one case planes were being put together in fields, under canvas, the very next day); they seem to have been more about killing and demoralizing than war effectiveness.
Don't get me wrong, I absolutely think the war needed to be fought, and I understand that those at the time had been through years of hell and didn't have the benefit of our hindsight and rationality. But for the sake of trying to prevent it happening again, it needs to be said: the deliberate bombing of civilian populations that was done towards the end of the war (and it was largely the end of the war, the western front in Europe was fought relatively cleanly for most of the war, and the attacks on civilians in eastern europe and china (which, incidentally, don't for a moment think I don't condemn strongly; no major player in the war's hands are clean) were done by more conventional methods)was wrong, even in wartime, and should not be repeated.
I am trolling
and i walk around solving my problems with that gun
in doing so, i dramatically increase my chance for an early death, due to gun, mine or someone else's, in a thousand different ways
the issue in play is frequent usage of violence to solve problems, not what kind of weapon you have, or if you know how to use it
using your weapon more than you need to merely involves oneself in more violence, which leads one to a much greater chance of early death. on an individual level, it is better to avoid violence altogether, even if that means you submit to someone else's will. simply because, that guy who sublimated you with violence, is probably not going to be around much longer, since ten of his imitators are interested in going to toe to toe with him violently. better to live through ten short-lived tyrants than you yourself turn into a tyrant yourself with your own 15 minutes of fame. in other words: better to simply submit to and avoid the violent, then go toe to toe with them and invite your own quick death due to announcing yourself as a threat that must be violently murdered (since you announced you will not submit, you would rather fight, it becomes necessary to kill you for those interested in power through violence)
so you are wrong. "turn the other cheek" is the best personal approach to survival, in any environment, from leafy peaceful tokyo suburbs, all the way to arid badlands outside mogadishu, and everywhere in between
the meek shall inherit the earth. meaning: those who fight for violence viscerally will burn out quickly, and then more temperate and civilized fights for power can take their rightful place
intellectual property law is philosophically incoherent. it is your moral duty to ignore it or sabotage it
That would mean that scaled up to countries (as we ARE actually talking about entire countries here) a single terrorist act would wipe out the entire country?
Save a couple of examples like Vatican, San Marino, Monaco, Nauru and such - that is simply not a possibility.
So, if you are adjusting other people's analogies - take care.
Oh and... If the rapist declares that after raping YOU that he is going to kill YOU - how does that give you right to take out dozens/hundreds/thousands innocent bystanders when you blow him up?
Ever hear of a knife? Or a gun? Or a kick in the groin?
There ARE alternatives to scorched earth tactics you know.
Mit der Dummheit kämpfen Götter selbst vergebens
"'This is like James Bond destroying his instructions as soon as he has read them,' says John Ainslie, the co-ordinator of the Scottish Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament, adding that 'perhaps the plans for making Fogbank were so secret that no copies were kept."
This is more like Inspector Gadget.
"This message will self-destruct!"
Knowing Google's lust for data collection, the Soviet Union is still alive and well inside the psyche of Sergey Brin....
Well, Hillary Clinton is now our Secretary of State. Does that make snukes an option?
I find it tough to believe that the foam in the W88 is really that different from the foam in the W76. I thought the goal of the foam was to just become completely ionized and become transparent to X-rays? How hard can that really be when a fission weapon is exploding a few feet away.
I imagine there might be some physical characteristics of the foam related to ballistic devices (can handle G's on launch, re-rentry, etc.) but that would be similar across all ballistic weapons.
Unless there is something they aren't telling us ;)
the Chinese. I'm sure they could pull it up from their archives.
It's what Trident missiles crave!
The Internet is generally stupid
Yeah. Like, pull that crazy guy from Fringe out of the mental hospital.
The Internet is generally stupid
The trident can just as easily be armed with the much newer and W88 without any modification and a mating adapter.
That's what she said!
Edith Keeler Must Die
You can't just murder them over something as transient as a rape
on the contrary, you can respond with deadly force for pretty much any kind of physical assault--- and it's self defense, not murder.
If a job's not worth doing, it's not worth doing right.
When the world was in a great depression all during the 30s, it certainly kept away the fascists and tyrannical govs that would attack other nations to avoid their own internal issues.
Yeah, I think that it is a wise thing for us to drop our space detection and our nuke missles, because we know that nobody else would dare to build up for war.
I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
There is speculation that the foam itself is involved in compression of the secondary (through state change into a plasma). Though what you say is probably the actual case, that being x-ray compression of the secondary.
If its true though that this foam is so critical then it tosses a couple of questions up on what people have been speculating.
Kipling said it, and he has been badly paraphrased. Orwell wrote a piece on Kipling, and thought well of Kipling expressing this idea. Here is what Orwell said "He sees clearly that men can only be highly civilized while other men, inevitably less civilized, are there to guard and feed them." Orwell in general wasn't keen on Kipling. His article is a good read, though long for some. Kipling's poem that said it best is Tommy.
Rule 37:
There is no overkill.
There is only 'Open fire'
and 'Time to reload'.
"Space Exploration is not endless circles in low earth orbit." -Buzz Aldrin
"...refurbish the ageing W76 warheads that tip Trident missiles in order to prolong their life, and ensure they are safe and reliable."? Safe? I can't help but quote Newton Crosby, PhD here: "What's so safe about blowing people up?"
...In the current global climate, there's no point in having nuclear missiles. Those who could strike us are no longer interested and are now allies and those who are hostile and nuclear capable can't reach us.
A few points to bring up:
What color is the sky in your Lets all(ah) Be Friends and Give Peace a Chance World?
There is no such thing as "no longer interested" as long as the US is considered a superpower by anyones definition. Period.
As far as the hostiles not having the capability of reaching us, I was unaware that the NSA/CIA posted on Slashdot, since obviously you've been briefed on that classified bit o' Intel, right?
MAD only works if neither side can stop the other. When one side can take out all your sats, is actively blowing them out of LEO in practice runs, is actively trying to place spies on the other side to gain knowledge as well as be able to shut down infrastructure, then you have a problem AND you are building neutron bombs (which really limit fallout, but causes maximum human damage). Basically, you have a situation where that side is gearing up to attack.
I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
Just brilliant. And they say human beings have "autonoetic consciousness" and are truly capable of planning a visit to the head.
``Tension, apprehension & dissension have begun!'' - Duffy Wyg&, in Alfred Bester's _The Demolished Man_
I am reminded of the little contretemps that the Texas dept. of corrections found themselves in with the FDA when they first started using lethal injection to perform their many executions. The FDA's beef was that the potion had not been clinically tested and proven to be "safe and effective". IIRC, the reply was something like, "Can't be both."
This information has probably been sold to the KGB or China long ago. So why don't they just ask?
Excuse me, but please get off my Pennisetum Clandestinum, eh!
... the Chinese can't steal this technology.
-GiH
Idiot
What makes me get up in the morning is WORKING to get what i have.... although a recent divorce makes me think otherwise.... (Karma Dump) I WORK for what i want... need .... (corvettes non included)and i don't want some idiot as of a prez to tell me what i shouldn't have or not......
*--- Sometimes a majority only means that all the fools are on the same side. ---*
You sound like a girl. No, a woman.
Are you a woman?
...they never recreated Captain America's shield?
Oh, I'm sure some bright tech moved the only remaining digital file over to one of their laptops - you know, the one that disappeared from the front seat of their car while they were having coffee at Denny's and that was never reported missing because they were too embarrassed...
In other news, Iran's and N. Korea's nuclear weapon's capabilities have mysteriously made nearly spontaneous progress...
So are you saying it's OK to END A LIFE over a nebulous concept like virginity?
Rape is not about sex. It's about control. Try again buddy.
Do I think it's okay to kill a rapist to avoid or stop a rape?
Let me think abouHELL FUCKING YES!!!
Chas - The one, the only.
THANK GOD!!!
I'd be really surprised if material scientists haven't already created an adequate replacement since then. It seems like we have a spray on goop for just about any setting/insulating type task.
uhm, zero?
"Clashes and shelling between the Georgian and Ossetian forces in early August led to the deaths of six Ossetians and five Georgians; both sides accused the other of opening fire first, in what was the worst violence in years."
"It's such a fine line between stupid and clever" -- David St. Hubbins, Spinal Tap
What the DoD really needs to do to sell upgrades to the nuclear arsenal is introduce a "New, greener, environmentally friendly nuke! Made with 100% recyclable materials! No dangerous, volatile chemicals used in the manufacturing process!" Then we could add it to the stimulus bill as a new, green technology. The Sierra Clubbers would love it!
I've abandoned my search for truth; now I'm just looking for some useful delusions.
I'm not surprised at this. I know what will happen next, more Bail Out Money will be spent by the U.S. Government. There will be Senate Hearings, a scape goat will be blamed, another career bureaucrat will lose their job. All because the managers of the Fog Bank invested in Sub-Prime loans. This is old news, even on Cable.
My nation has never started wars of aggression.
If your nation is USA, then it has started quite a few. The most recent one was obviously Iraq (you may be deluded, but the rest of the world is nearly unanimously agreed that it was an act of aggression), but there was also Kosovo, invasion of Grenada, Vietnam (yes, foreign intervention on one of the sides in a civil war is an act of aggression), and intervention into the Russian Civil War. There are a few more minor ones, but that's already quite enough.
The reason we had a peaceful occupation of Germany is because the German population was utterly and completely demoralized and defeated.
Actually, the reason why you had a peaceful occupation of West Germany was because the people living there knew you for the saints you were compared to the Soviets. And the reason why Soviets had a peaceful occupation of East Germany was because they performed an extremely large-scale, on-the-ground terror campaign with deliberately high civilian casualty numbers. You sound as if you argue for the latter approach.
Everything was better in the 80's.
Music, TV, Films.
DISCO-influenced music !!
He was a thief. Other people who actually work for a living do not take from those around them.
That said, it would be better if people didn't take more than they need. And our society often does marginalize people and make them poor (I'm not totally sure why). This achieved through government action, mandated by the middle class. I'm sure the wealthy would do it if they had the political power.
Where does virginity come in? Rape is assault. Responding to an assault with force is A-OK by me. You don't like that, don't attack me or anyone I care about.
So you'd rather have just exterminated the Japanese entirely? Why stop at two nukes, in that case?
It also would have been a violation of our wartime agreements with the British and Chinese to not seek a separate peace or anything less than an unconditional surrender.
And yet it was fine to accept a conditional surrender after dropping the bombs?
My nation has never started wars of aggression.
Covered elsewhere, I think, and beside the point in any case.
The London Blitz was towards the end of the war?
Hmm, earlier than I thought; perhaps not. (But certainly don't leave out Berlin, which is the one that started it all)
The bombing of Warsaw occurred at the end of the war? Shanghai? Belgrade? Rotterdam?
If you're talking about the complete destruction of Warsaw then yes, end of the war. Of course all these places were bombed early on, but don't try and pretend a bombing in support of a military invasion is the same thing as a deliberate attack on the civilian population.
I disagree. It should be repeated. The reason we had a peaceful occupation of Germany is because the German population was utterly and completely demoralized and defeated. When you start a war you should expect to pay the consequences.
Yeah, that approach worked so well after the first world war. Wait, no. Putting large amounts of money into the reconstruction of western europe was what forged a stable peace.
I am trolling
Assuming, of course, that the "violent idiots" don't kill you first.
Note that there is little historical evidence that non-violence is particularly useful for survival unless your (hypothetical) enemies adopt it first.
"I do not agree with what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it"
This has got to be a joke.. We couldn't have lost the classified documentation on this.. Skills, sure, but knowledge?
If we have, god help us.
---- Booth was a patriot ----
Like Heinlein once said.
Violence never solved anything is a blatant lie.
Go ask the Carthegenians if they think violence never solved anything.
They shouldn't have revoked that scientist's H1 Visa. It is going to be a bitch tracking him down in India now.
Having to work for a living is the root of all evil.
I mean here we have a bunch of people who are rocket scientists (ok missiles) and nuclear physcists and they don't document and comment. The lesson they'll probably take out of it looking at those guys is "Hey, not only is it ok not to document but if they're not doing it that must mean it's actually a great idea."
Did you know 80 to 90% of the moderators on slashdot wouldn't recognize a troll even if one dragged them under a bridge.
This is a clear disadvantage that closed or classified research and development has as opposed to open exchange of ideas. When we are researching how to kill people efficiently, we get so scared that other people might find out our knowledge and use it to kill us that we are in danger of forgetting the knowledge ourselves.
... I'm not really convinced this is a bad thing.
I'm not sure what type of anti-ship missile you're referring to, but aircraft carriers have computer-controlled mini-guns mounted to defend against air-to-surface missiles. I would assume the same could work for these battleships.
Seth
$5 / month hosted VPS on linux = awesome!
So you'd rather have just exterminated the Japanese entirely? Why stop at two nukes, in that case?
If they hadn't surrendered, yes, we should have kept dropping nukes on them. Extermination is a bit of a stretch though -- we killed more Japanese with conventional bombing than we did with the nuclear attacks and even those attacks didn't come close to "exterminating" the Japanese. Japan lost 3.8% of her 1939 population. Contrast that to 16.1% for Poland or 13.7% for the Soviet Union. You'll forgive me if I roll my eyes at the idea that we were trying to (or even could have) exterminate the Japanese.
Hmm, earlier than I thought; perhaps not. (But certainly don't leave out Berlin, which is the one that started it all)
Actually Berlin wasn't bombed until London was (accidentally, though nobody figured that out until after the war) bombed by the Luftwaffe.
but don't try and pretend a bombing in support of a military invasion is the same thing as a deliberate attack on the civilian population.
Oh, so it's ok for the Axis powers to bomb cities immediately before they invade them but not ok for the Allies to do the same thing if the invasion is a year or so off? Nice double standard you have there. I suppose the civilian working in a munitions or aircraft plant is innocent in your eyes?
Putting large amounts of money into the reconstruction of western europe was what forged a stable peace.
I'm pretty sure mutually assured destruction deserves some credit too.
I want peace on earth and goodwill toward man.
We are the United States Government! We don't do that sort of thing.
"I thought the goal of the foam was to just become completely ionized and become transparent to X-rays? How hard can that really be when a fission weapon is exploding a few feet away."
I assume pretty hard if you're trying to become a lens to *focus* those X-rays, and do it within nanoseconds while in the process of being destroyed.
"Unless there is something they aren't telling us ;)"
A nuclear power withholding detailed descriptions of how their mega-kill-bombs work? Unpossible.
You are not a brain: http://books.google.com/books?id=2oV61CeDx-YC
When you read some of the background material on this (http://www.banthebomb.org/newbombs/fogbank%20material.doc) you find:
Fogbank is like part of the "interstage" between the fission primary and the thermonuclear secondary. Design contraints for the W76 make the use of exotic aerogels such as Fogbank necessary. The need to recycle and refurbish the warheads past their design lifetime require use to deal these materials again and again.
Fogbank was likely only produced at one place the Y-12 facility at Oak Ridge TN.
Fogbank was produced at Building 9404-11 from the mid '70 to 1989. The Building 9404-11 was decomissioned and a new "Purification Facility" at building 9420-1 was finally constructed from 2003 until 2006.
The need to produce more Fogbank was likely found relative to the W76 warhead in 1996 to 1999 review when the life extension of the W76 was deemed the thing to do.
There are those who would like the production of a reliable replacement weapon (RRW) which would (or could) bypass the need for Fogbank.
The nuclear genie can't be put back in the bottle and these difficult decisions will continue for decades. The nuclear programs in Iran and North Korea and who knows where else will just continue the problems.
In contrast we don't operate Nike missle batteries anymore with acceptable US civilian casualty rates of 25% in San Francisco, New York, Philadelphi, Pittsburgh....
I once sat in on a meeting involving the Georgian speaker of parliament. One of her aides related to my boss the saying they have in Georgia about Stalin and Beria: "Yes, they were terrible, but they did kill a lot of Russians..."
In any case, Georgia putting down a separatist movement armed & funded by the Russians within its own territory is entirely different than Russia invading and occupying Georgia, a sovereign country.
The Rise and Fall of Online Community
"DESTROY BEFORE READING".
Facts don't back this up at all. If somebody points a gun at you and mugs you, the odds you will survive are high if you just comply. The mugger's goal is to get your belongings/money, not to kill. Even stupid criminals are generally aware of how much more force will be used to find a murderer. It's not a given that they will be caught, but why take the chance when a gun left unfired is enough to attain your goal?
If you choose to fight back, however, the odds of the criminal using any weapon they may have (and which is probably at the ready) dramatically increase. It's just not wise no matter how you look at it.
The big exception is intention. If you have some way of knowing that said criminal plans on killing you regardless of whether you comply, then of course it makes sense to fight back. At least you have a chance then.
Elrond, Duke of URL
"This is the most fun I've had without being drenched in the blood of my enemies!"-Sam&Max
I'm aware of that. I'm just pointing out what seems to be the logical conclusion of your position of "if you start a war of aggression you deserve everything you get".
Actually Berlin wasn't bombed until London was (accidentally, though nobody figured that out until after the war) bombed by the Luftwaffe.
That was with two planeloads of bombs; I'd've thought it were possible to figure that one out, or at least, not respond with the escalation to full-scale bombing raids on Berlin. (And given what an advantage the shift to attacking each other's civilian populations gave to Britain, I can't help wondering whether a deliberate decision was taken).
Oh, so it's ok for the Axis powers to bomb cities immediately before they invade them but not ok for the Allies to do the same thing if the invasion is a year or so off? Nice double standard you have there.
No double standard; of course the Axis bombing of e.g. London was equally wrong, and any number of Allied bombings for military purposes were - well, I won't say good, but entirely reasonable wartime practice. We could talk for any length about the war crimes committed by the Axis side if you like, but I don't think there's any need to - we're both agreed about them, as far as I know. Wheras you seem unwilling to accept that anything the Allies did during the war could possibly have been wrong.
I suppose the civilian working in a munitions or aircraft plant is innocent in your eyes?
Well, yes, in so far as anyone is ever innocent. I suppose you think there's no difference between a civilian and a soldier?
I am trolling
... we lost the Illudium Q-36 explosive space modulator. No earth-shattering KABOOM today."
That was with two planeloads of bombs; I'd've thought it were possible to figure that one out, or at least, not respond with the escalation to full-scale bombing raids on Berlin
Escalation? They were already involved in a total war. Claiming that bombing production centers and assets represents an "escalation" seems like a stretch to me.
Wheras you seem unwilling to accept that anything the Allies did during the war could possibly have been wrong.
I just think it's questionable logic to accuse the Allies of war crimes when the Allies absorbed the overwhelming majority (>80%) of the civilian and military casualties in the conflict. As far as I'm concerned if the bombing of Axis cities shortened the war by one day or saved the life of a single Allied solider then it was perfectly justifiable.
Go read up on the combined bomber offensive sometime -- discover how it kept the Germans from getting the Type XXI U-Boats (which could have flipped the Battle of the Atlantic and cost the Allies the war) into mass production. Learn how the bombing of Japan forced the Japanese to capitulate without a bloody ground invasion that would have killed a million Allied soldiers and tens of millions of Japanese civilians. Then tell me that it wasn't justifiable.
I suppose you think there's no difference between a civilian and a soldier?
Not in a total war. In a total war the nation-state mobilizes every single asset that it has to support the war effort. In a total war civilians become legitimate targets.
I want peace on earth and goodwill toward man.
We are the United States Government! We don't do that sort of thing.
Fat Man, the plutonium bomb dropped on Nagasaki, fissioned perhaps 20% of the plutonium, and converted around 1 GRAM of that mass into energy. The fission products and unfissioned plutonium came down as radioactive fallout.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fat_Man
Little Boy, the uranium bomb dropped on Hiroshima, was even less efficient.
Remember "News for Nerds, Stuff that Matters"? Help make it a reality again! http://soylentnews.org
It's not a matter of numbers, any more than it's acceptable to e.g. lynch a serial killer. Was the conduct of the Axis side in the war worse? Sure. But that doesn't mean we should refuse to condemn anything the Allies did.
I am trolling
But that doesn't mean we should refuse to condemn anything the Allies did.
Ah, but you would condemn it without even looking at the context or what was gained from those actions. Do some research on the bomber offensives and then tell me that you wouldn't have done the exact same thing in the shoes of the Allies.
I want peace on earth and goodwill toward man.
We are the United States Government! We don't do that sort of thing.
Yes, I would, because if you start saying the end justifies the means you end up with no moral boundaries at all.
Do some research on the bomber offensives and then tell me that you wouldn't have done the exact same thing in the shoes of the Allies.
What I'd've done in their position isn't the point; I'm no saint either. But what I'd want to have done, what I'd expect of myself, and what I believe to be right, is not to attack civilians, under any circumstances.
I am trolling
Maybe that stands in the US, but in most civilized countries that's not the case. Response has to be proportional. That means you can't shoot someone in the face with a shotgun if they slap you.
But what I'd want to have done, what I'd expect of myself, and what I believe to be right, is not to attack civilians, under any circumstances.
I hope you are fluent in German and not Jewish then.....
I want peace on earth and goodwill toward man.
We are the United States Government! We don't do that sort of thing.
Switching to morale bombing was a not a clever move. It cost the Germans the invasion of England, and didn't do much to British morale other than pissing them off royally and making them really determined to fight. By that time, the Allies should have realized that the way to bring a war machine to a halt it to keep trying to hit actual military and industrial targets instead of a nebulous concept like "morale". Can't really wage war if you're out of guns, ammo, tanks, planes and fuel, no matter how good or bad your morale is.
Germany surrendered because most of the country was occupied, not because morale was low. German industrial output of military goods actually peaked in 1944.
The only time morale bombing had its intended effect was the atomic bombings of Japan, mostly because of the "What the fscking shit was that?" effect.