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Xbox 360 Wins Through 2009?
simoniker writes "As part of a recent MI6 Conference presentation, IDG's Jason Anderson made predictions on the North American installed base of the next-gen consoles through 2008. He predicts that the Xbox 360 will continue to hold a lead into 2009, with the PS3 just behind and the Wii trailing significantly. In particular: 'In 2008, Anderson suggests 15.5 million units in homes for the Xbox 360, 13.5 million for PS3, and 6.8 million for Wii.' Is the Wii really going to trail by so much, or do the analysts not 'get it'?"
how can they suggest those numbers for the ps3 and wii if they haven't even launched yet?
Look at current console trends. PS2 has XBOX and GC significantly outsold.
360 has a head start and will enjoy price drop advantages over the PS3, which means the PS3 has to close the gap before it can repeat the PS2's sales dominance. If the Wii performs the same as the GC, it's going to be a year behind the 360. At the end of this cycle of consoles the numbers could be identical, it's just that the 360 is here NOW.
120 characters for a sig? That's bloody useless.
how can you predict consumer preference? who would have predicted, for instance, the overwhelming popularity of the nintendo DS over the PSP?
Problem is, we'll never be able to say, "Hypothetically, if all three had came out at the same time, PS3 would have carried strong through 2009." Why can't we say that? Because we observe one experiment (what really happens) and we have no control over the variables and the control factors in the experiment. You can't apply the scientific process to much of economics so why is it considered a science? Things like the Phillips Curve hold true for 30 years and then suddenly fall flat on their face so now it's not so much a curve as a movable line that can be placed anywhere automagically.
It's almost painfully obvious that there's very little pertinent data to observe to make this assumption about the XBox, so why make any predictions at all?! Oh, that's right, attention & web traffic.
My work here is dung.
Parents won't be able to afford the $600 next gen units so...
Wii FTW!!!
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Bite Me Fanboy!!
Ok random insert-your-own-inappropriate-word-here guesses what consoles will have sold the most 2 years from now? Oh, awesome, how I've longed for this day to happen.
Also he is dead wrong since he belives the Wii will sell the least amount.
I'm a hardcore FPS gamer. I'll take the PC over any console any day. Although, i did buy a 360, i'm most interested in the Wii. The games look interesting, the innovative controls sound fun, and for less than $250, you can't afford not to get one. With other next-gen systems being at least double to almost triple the price...i don't see why the Wii wouldn't be right up there with the 360 and PS3. The only one i see as lagging behind is the PS3 only because of the pricing. After seeing PS3's launch price, i decided i could get addicted to the new Smash Bros and actually be able to eat food for the next month.
currently I'm not a subscriber, yet I get news updates from what, 3 years in the future where 2/3 of the systems aren't even out yet?
seriously. I don't think analysts' predictions are news; especially when they're predicting the sales trend of products that havne't been released, let alone really shown off, yet. And with something as dynamic as a videogame console. I mean, the primary deciding factor (I thought) in the sales of a system are the games that are released. who's to say that the PS3 won't have a dozen games as spectacular and fun as Shadow of the Colossus? What's to say that the Wii isn't going to blow M$ and Sony out of the water?
I really don't get why this was posted.
as an asside; I'm really looking forward to the Wii. the 360 blew all my expectations out of the water (I really expected it to be slightly more entertaining than fecal matter smeared into a faux mustache on an overly inflated blowup doll). I had high hopes for the PS3, but now, I really don't know and perhaps sony has its head so far up its ass, that I wouldn't be surprised if they botch the whole system worse than atari did with the jaguar. worse than sega did with the saturn.
...spike
Ewwwwww, coconut...
That's because the PS3 won't be available until 2010! Although it wouldn't supprise me to see the Wii take the lead eventually.
I see alot of comments on here about how that must be dead wrong, but he is probably taking those nubmers from the way the curretn gen systems sold, I mean lets think about this, the Averae gamer (not the uber gamers) no longer looks at nintendo, infact they all have an Xbox or PS2 right now because of the mature gaming platform, those of us who really love games picked up Nintendo's product, becasue we wanted to see what it could do.
Rigth now the average gamer doesn't want inovation, he just wants flashy graphics and a good FPS that a noob could pick up and win in, Nintendo is trying to sell in their style, but their style will not match up with the average gamer community, The PS3 is to expensive right now to the average gamer, the Wii is to far from what they are used to, so the XBox 360 is perfect, I think the guy has a good theory, but only time will truely tell if all these companies live up to their promises or not
Did someone say cake?
I think Game Informer had it right in this month's magazine.
if the more affordable Wii ends up being the second sstem of every PS3 or 360 owner, it's possible that it could make a run at the top spot in terms of installed base
Not that every 360 or PS3 owner will also purchase a Wii, but many probably will. Not to mention the die-hard nintendo fanbase that will buy only the Wii. Also if nintendo's plan for how they intend to market the Wii works out then many non-gamers will be converted by the Wii which adds many additional sales.
But honestly, I don't really care. I'm buying a Wii day one because it's going to kick ass. I probably won't ever buy a 360, but I may buy a PS3 in a few years when the price becomes reasonable.
nil
The analyst here isn't predicting how much fun the Wii will be, he's prediciting sales.
Here's a question: How much shelf space will Wal*Mart devote to Wii games compared to the other two consoles?
Here's another question: How much money will be spent marketing each next-gen platform?
Sorry to say it, I think the analyst has it just about right.
Now here's a guy who really doesn't understand the industry....
Wise men say, "Forgiveness is divine, but never pay full price for late pizza."
Only problem is that the Wii isn't the GC. Sure, the proc and graphics may not be a major new innovation, but the hype about the Wii has always been the new controller. Speaking as a marketing student, Nintendo has done a very capable job of marketing the new product, keeping it in the public eye, and giving encouraging price point nods. I predict this analyst prediction will be totally off the wall. Can I get paid too, since I have just as much insight on the yet-to-be-released PS3 and Wii as this writer?
Meh, a real sig would take too long, and I have an MMORPG to play with....
... to be predicting things like this all the way to 2k9.
"Thanks for all the money you paid to us. We've used it to buy off ISO among other things" -Microsoft
The quantity question is shaking up to look the same, at least initially, for the next generation. The majority of next generation previews I've seen are for 360/PS3, with an absolute dearth of high profile previews for Wii.
If the quantity of game selection were the sole criteria, I'd say the analyst is roughly right in his predictions at least for the near term. PS3 will have a huge advantage over the 360 in the number of Japanese developed games, so I expect to eventually overtake it.
The obvious wildcards are how successful the Wii will be in expanding the market and bringing back lapsed gamers. And how long will the PS3 sell for a premium. If Nintendo can translate E3 success into actually getting devlopers to release games on the Wii, their chance for success will rise dramatically.
Isn't Jason Anderson the director of XBox over Canada? Is this the same person?
In TFA: "IDG also analyzed multiple console ownership, and found that there was a decent amount of crossover [...] with most crossover happening when those households also chose to pick up a Wii."
The above statement in the article contradicts his statement about Wii trailing significantly behind the others. If most of the crossover ownerships of consoles include the Wii, and the amount of crossover is decent, then you would think that the Wii would actually be significantly ahead of the others.
I get tired of weak, bias, and contradicting predictions/statistics just to sell articles. Here is a better prediction: I predict that during that same time Microsoft will spend billions more trying to push their console, Sony will be announcing a new feature for PS3 called the kitchen sink, and Wii gamers will have perma-grin. I don't think that it makes a difference how many consoles are sold of each, success of consoles comes from how well each company penetrates their target marketing area and how successful the unique games are.
The last console that I ever owned was a Sega Genesis and I am planning on buying a Wii.
Technoli
imho, ps3 will be too niche-market to compete well. $600 for the base system and $100 per game is getting quite pricey.
it will be xbox360 vs wii. higher quality graphics, online play vs innovative games and play style. the 360 will be out earlier, but the wii will be released cheaper than the 360 could probably ever become. i'm putting the wii on top with this one. i know i'll be buying one (and not a 360/ps3).
And quite frankly, I think they're underestimating how popular the Wii will be - especially with its wide variety of games designed to appeal to not just hardcore gamers, but especially to women, girls, and occassional gamers.
-- Tigger warning: This post may contain tiggers! --
FPS is the least interesting genre for me.
Reading GamePro's coverage of E3, the thing that struck me was that almost all the games for the 360 and PS3 were boring FPSs with better graphics. The Wii was the only console that had significant variety.
Now, it may be that the magazine was just filling space with whatever had the most impressive screenshots... but if the PS3 lineup really is mostly FPSs, Sony could find themselves in trouble, as most FPS fans seem to be PC gamers like you.
In fact, I kinda wonder about why anyone would make their first PS3 title a FPS. Maybe it's just that those are so easy to crank out and a relatively safe bet in the US market, which is why id software have given up any hope of originality and just squat and drop another FPS every year or two.
GCHQ Quantum Insert installed. If only our tongues were made of glass, how much more careful we would be when we speak
How do I put it... the XBox 360 and PS3 were designed around the industry's conventional wisdom that hardcore gamers drive the market. The analysts created and boosted this idea with their reports about how a small minority made the majority of game purchases. (For example most games have the majority of their sales in their first month of release, which has exacerbated the importance of hype.)
The Wii flies in the face of the industry's conventional wisdom, and if the current buzz translates to sales (not a given, of course) it will be the winner of the next gen console war. If IDG went along with the idea of the Wii being #1 they would be telling people to ignore the guidance they've been giving for years because following it doesn't translate to winning in the marketplace.
If the Wii is the next-gen winner there are going to be a lot of upturned apple carts in the industry.
Where is he drawing his conclusions?
Based on past performance? Based on marketing of all the companies?
The PS1 was not expected to be sucessfull. Neither was the DS gameboy over the hyped psp as another poster pointed out.
Personally I think the wii is going to surprise everyone and nintendo once again will rerule the console market. It will cost $225 while the PS3 will be anywhere from $600 to $800 and the games will be $70-80, the xbox360 will have about 8 or 9 games by this christmass and cost $350. Also Nintendo is doing innovative things and will attract a broader range of consumers.
If the slashdot poll we had last month was any indication of consumer preference, I think Sony and MS are in trouble. We are more technically minded and more game savy than the average consumer so the preference %'s for the xbox and PS3 should be much higher than the general public.
Last, for those who say the wii is weak on grahics, please check this out? Also take a look at the new Galaxy Mario? The gamecube right now has the best best graphics out of the ps2 and xbox 1. Go ask any real game developer and dont believe the hype out of sony?
http://saveie6.com/
These are US only numbers. Not worldwide. Look at the current handhelds, DS is only slightly ahead of the PSP in North America, where as in Japan, it's not even a race. (The old phat DS is almost outselling the PSP, and the DS Lites are outselling the phat DS 7:1!!)
I'm betting simular results for the Wii at the beginning. It'll be competitive here in North America, but will eat japan up right from the get go. Globally though, the numbers will look MUCH different.
AirSpeak - http://itunes.com/apps/AirSpeak
The same way all good--and bad--predictions are made: They made them up. ;-)
You couldn't be more wrong. Among Nostradamus' many cryptic and undated predictions, there were
thinly disguised sales numbers for video game consoles, a decade into the new millenium.
Check the quatrains, my friend. It is ALL There
music lover since 1969
Hey everyone, if you see a story that is pro-X360 and anti PS3 or Wii (this means basiaclly anything under ths games category in Slashdot), assign a tag of "zonked" to it. If the tag is popular enough to float up to the top level perhaps Zonk will rethink his personal crusade.
"There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
I'm going to buy the Wii. Not the PS2. Not the XBox 360...
Its gameplay, man. The Wii promises "good enuf" graphics and unique gameplay.
Its the same reason I got the DS over the PSP: The games have better gameplay (even if the graphics are far more limited). Innovative input -> innovative gameplay.
Test your net with Netalyzr
Their whole stratagy has been games for everyone. That is what sets is apart from the Gamecube (and especially the PS3). Just make somthing cheap, something that anyone can play (*cough* and afford *cough*).
Wonder what the public key field is for?
It's anecdotal, but I don't know a single person who's gonna shell out the cash for a ps3 and I don't know anybody who owns an XBox 360, but I know tons of people who're chomping at the bit for the Wii to come out. I'm not sure where those numbers came from, but they don't ring true for me.
I'm getting a little tired of analysts telling us how the next generation console war is going to play out over the next few years, especially when what they're suggesting seems to all but ignore the level of interest shown by the general public in each product.
Whilst a good handful of people I know are very happy with their Xbox360s, and a one or two are even looking forward to getting their hands on a PS3, without exception everyone I've spoken to about the Wii is very excited about it, and has every intention of buying one soon after release. There's a genuine enthusiasm for the product, which isn't dampened by a high console price like the PS3.
I mean, even Microsoft and Sony are expecting people to buy a Wii as a second machine. If we're talking basic number of units sold, it's hard to see how Nintendo aren't going to quickly take the lead.
The Gamecube had few real world advantages over the other consoles in the last/current generation of consoles, and without the help of a huge Microsoft or Sony scale marketing campaign, it's not hard to see why it was a relative failure.
This time around, there's the (expected) significantly lower price point, the fact that it truly offers something different in the form of a new controller, a download service with a good solid 20 year back catalogue of games, and of course interraction with the DS. Any one of these could made quite a difference, but together, I think we're looking at a definite reclaiming of ground by Nintendo in this round.
That is exactly right. I think that innovation (touch generation and all that jazz) is going to shake things up. I have friends that have never spent a buck on video games buying DS Lites. They love having _fun_ with the device, playing the games they actually want to play like Sudoku, Brain Age, etc. Fun little diversions from an inexpensive little device.
Linux: Free if your time is worthless.
One's a bit more consistant than the other. The speed of light is one unchanging velocity. The economy is several different figures all in constant flux with very loose relationships built around one another.
You can also derive the speed of light from many different angles and methods and run several experiments with controls and variables. No such luck in the "science" of economics.
I'm not sure. If I were to guess, I'd say it would be very close, say... 40% for the 360, and 35% for the Wii and 25% for the PS3 (keep in mind this means more sales in terms of $ for the PS3 than the Wii). Something like that.
/. games page. That seems to be all it takes.
360 has a big advantage from being first; they'll have not only a fanbase but a lot of titles available by the time the other two launch, and with that momentum they'll get an even bigger fanbase and more titles. It's a vicious cycle.
the PS3 has the strongest brand recognition, but Sony has made what is in my opinion a shitload of stupid moves. It's not just the high price, but the actual cost of making the console which guarantees that price won't go down for a while. Apparantly it's not the easiest console to develop for either, so the "variety" card that the PS2 had will probably get passed to the 360 this gen. The Blu-Ray playing aspect is the dumbest part. It's too early to put that in a console. As far as I'm concerned, the first couple years of the PS3 will have few games and a small fanbase. It won't really have a proper "launch" for a couple years when they're cheaper to manufacture, and by then the vicious cycle thing will stop them from doing too well for this generation. I guess I could be wrong. Wouldn't be the first time.
I love Nintendo's products and have no doubt that I'll love the Wii. They'll get a good amount of money from us hardcore types (the price and concept makes it go well with either of the other consoles). Many kids are picky and demand a certain console, but many parents just won't pay the price of a PS3 no matter how much their kids scream. Two things I'm not sure about for the wii are: third-party support, and selling this thing to casual gamers (they need to put up Wii kiosks in malls, and I don't mean in game stores.).
I'm just guessing all of this. Maybe I can call my self an analyst and get on this post quoted on the
"When the atomic bomb goes off there's devastation...but when the atomic bong goes off there's celebraaaaation!"
Xbox360 version 2 will be relauched geared more toward media centre abilities in a floundering attempt to try and get that microsoft business unit profitable. By 2012, Microsoft will exit the space having acheived some measure of market penetration, but not having made a red cent ( in fact only losing billions along the way). They'll claim to continue to support XB360, only to see no new release on the horizon 6 months later. The XB360 hardware will continue to hold its price very well due to its outstanding mod-ability and easy to "copy and share" games.
In 2007, the PS3 will be launched, but most games will be shipped on standard DVD. The price drop fairly quickly and will be successful, but no where PS2 levels. Sony will release a cheaper PS3 in 2008
NWII will surpass XB360 in installed base after 1 year on the market. At this point, we won't hear anymore from MS about how the NWII doesn't compete in the same space and we'll see a redirect in marketing leading to the 2009 MS prediction.
SEGA will release a dreamcast portable, then exit the market due to bankruptcy 6 months later. Phantom will buy their assets.
EA will enter the septic tank cleaning business.
How can you make this statement without backing it up? What credentials do you have within the console gaming industry? What information do you have that refutes his research? He may indeed be wrong, but unless you have something to contribute to the debate, don't bother posting.
I don't want to achieve immortality through my work. I want to achieve it by not dying. - Woody Allen
I hate to break it to you, but the console is essentially a PC with more restrictions. It's a PC that's been so DRM'd that it can only be used to play games that are licensed for that console.
And I can't imagine why you think a console will "just work" any more than Steam. I guarantee someday you'll bring home a console game and it will either be defective (won't play at all), or your console will reject it for some other reason. At least with a PC, it's highly likely I'll have a backup for all my savegames -- with a console, you need an exploit in order to do it in any kind of automated fashion. And I don't have a source for this, but my brother once brought home a PS2 demo cd that completely corrupted our memory card.
The difference is, on a PC, it's usually possible for you to prevent things from going wrong, whereas on a console, there's not much you can do if someone else (console manufacturer, game developer/publisher) screws it up.
It's true, it's not very likely that a console game will have that kind of problem -- but on a well maintained PC, that's not likely either. It's easier to maintain a console than a Windows PC, but Windows is not your only option -- a Mac is pretty easy to maintain, and Linux, while hard to set up, is even easier to keep clean. But even if it's got to be Windows, keeping your PC clean has other advantages than games.
Don't thank God, thank a doctor!
Leaving Nintendo aside, as they've at the fringes of TV-console gaming at the moment this battle is basicly between Microsoft and Sony and quite frankly, what do Sony expect? I mean, (speaking as a PSP owner and PS2 owner) when you bring a console to market 18 months late, have a price over double that of the competator and show the sheer bold-faced greed and lack of respect for the customer that Sony has (have you seen the price of PSP games? They're DOUBLE the price of DS and often more expensive that TV-console counterparts).
And down the frontpage I see an article about Sony increasing game prices - then remember the DRM spyware thing - what is this? I think Sony is just bleeding the existing customer base dry because they know that the PS3 is a dud and need all the revenue they can. And don't get me started on the crappyness of the potentially excellent PSP firmware (Disabling Homebrew? Can't play MP3 from browser? SLOW browser? Outdated flash when launched?)
Wake up Sony, you're a failing company - both from an internal and external point of view - your products are late, you over-control your customers and treat them like dirt.
There was a time when Sony was the only brand that i'd but - why? - QUALITY.
Good riddance - i'd love it if they lost this 'war' because they don't deserve to win. If only I didn't loathe M$ so much i'd be buying me a 360.
SONY - wake up and smell the coffee.
Forget Blu-ray, no one will pay that price for a console just for a pseudo-functional movie player (remember how crappy the PS2 DVD player is!!)
Respect your customers.
Get the PS3 to market at a price that will actually sell some units.
Don't look at it in terms of "PS2 outsold the XBox and GC, therefore XBox 360 will outsell the PS3".
Look at it in terms of " PS2 is outselling the XBox 360, therefore PS3 will outsell the XBox 360 as well".
You can't possibly talk about the XBox 360 beating the next-gen consoles when it can't even beat the last- gen consoles. Analysts and bloggers may love the XBox 360, but consumers, well, don't, which is why we keep seeing constant predictions of success for the XBox 360 but no actual success.
Sony has already made so many blunders before launch I don't see how they are going to sustain the PS3 sales after fanboys and hardcore AV enthusiasts have their fill. Lets go over Sony's faults:
1. Being indignant about the price of the PS3
2. It's freakin' huge: the box will take up the same space in stores as two or three Xbox 360's or at least 4 Wii's.
3. No Rumble in the controller
4. Realistic Cost if you don't want the crappy PS3, out the door, with one game, let alone an extra controller, with tax, is over $700.
5. Being indignant about the pricing of the games which HAVE to be more expensive for Sony to make any money back on this system. ($69.99-$100.00)
5. Once again lying about the power of the system. It appears now that the PS3 may not be able to leverage any advantage the Cell chip offers till the end of the PS3 life cycle.
I see Nintendo selling as many consoles as Microsoft in the coming year, coming in a close second, if not number one. Sony, well, Sony is screwed.
"Jeremy, you need to get to an internet cafe and cut and paste some appropriate sentiments about me from the world wide
Aside from its "unique" controller aspects, the Wii offers nothing to the majority of gamers which make up PS2/Xbox users, who plan on upgrading to a next gen system. The gamecube trailed significantly, and the Wii will have sales worse than the gamecube. The avg gamer could care less about zelda and mario rehases with a "nifty" controller. The analysts have it right on that part at least. Most people i know IRL are not planning on a Wii for their first next gen system. Most are getting/already have a 360 and are waiting on the PS3.
You ask how much retail space the Wii will get.
The answer is in this question: what is E3, and how did the consoles do at E3?
E3 is an expo for the people who make buying decisions for the retailers. That's why it requires an industry connection (though they aren't vetted well) to get in. Retailers have to plan Christmas in the spring, which why we have E3 in May.
So, as a buyer for the big retailers you make your plans based on what you saw at E3. How do you think Nintendo did?
the controller will only be a selling point if there are actually good games, and LOTS of them, which utilize it. So far it seems promising, but its really up to the game developer to facilitate the device
Not out yet. Not as good graphics as PS3. Lame.
People are inept at predicting trends. Doesn't make it any less interesting to watch these mortals be fools, lord.
Someone has invented a working time machine! You'd think that would be the bigger story.
People need to understand that analysts like this are paid to look at the numbers and make their best guess at what will happen. Will it be dead on? No. Will it be close? Maybe, maybe not. Estimates far enough out in time are generally understood by people who look at these things to be best guesses and little more. Too many unexpected things fly out of no where to be dead on.
That being said, it does give the industry some information so that they can lay initial plans for the next 5 to 10 years. (Yes, a number of companies do plan at least this far in advance despite the speed at which the industry changes.)
Actually I am kind of torn between the Wii and PS3, and the 360 while nice (a friend has one that I have played a few times) will not be able to play some of the japanese games that really grab me.
No, I am not offended that every article is not pro Wii. What I am anoyed by is that EVERY SINGLE article about next gen systems on slashdot is either pro-360 or anti-PS3 or anti-Wii. There are postive artcicles for other systems around, they just do not show up on Slashdot. The most blantat example of this where an outright lie about the PS3 made the front page and then just hours later the correction ran as one of the side stories that gets a single line on the front page.
"There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
I do admit the 360 has done everything right in their launch and of course they are going to be on top for quite a while. I'd be willing to suggest they win this generation. However how is the PS3 going to get even close to that. They already admited they arn't worried about the following
Sony is pulling a nintendo 64, they are overestimating name recognition and they will fall flat on the face.
The Wii may not get the hard core gamers, but a lot of techno nuts will grab it just for the pure innovation. At the same time NO ONE is getting a 360 for just arcade games, however someone is more likely to buy a 250 dollar Wii (which sounds what they are aiming for) and go and buy some old nintendo games to play with for a couple dollars tops.
Now I'm not saying the Wii will beat the Ps3, but the Ps3 will NEVER be close behind 360 at the rate they are going. The gaming community has embraced the 360 in North America (where we are talking about), the world's gaming community is extremely skeptical of the PS3, and interested in the Wii. Factor in a Zelda launch title, Halo 3, 2nd gen 360 games, and eyes start to turn.
That's not to say in 2007/2008 that the PS3 will not get great games, or the Wii will get tons of great games. No one knows but the facts are against the PS3 rocketting away. The 360 is "simple" to program for (compared to the PS3), the Wii has a unique controller which both helps and hinders it. And looking at fall 2007, those second generation 360 games are coming fast, compared to launch PS3 games they will blow them away.
Microsoft did almost everything right with the 360 overall, the launch was weak and weak BC, but the games are slowly coming in. On the other side, nintendo is doing everything right in creating a new "interactive" gamer level, and Sony is just about doing everything wrong. One or two issues wouldn't be a problem but Sony really has a long way to become top dog again.
And this is coming from a guy who didn't own a Xbox, I own a 360 now though and I couldn't be happier, it's a great system, I'll be buying a Wii, but the Ps3 still isn't worth the 600 bucks. And remember a PS3 will be highly inflated numbers as well because people will buy it just for the blu ray which is cheaper than buying a Blu-ray player solo.
PS3 isn't launched. Based on current sales the leading console in 2009 will be the PS2 (which is outselling XBox 360). This may sound like a flip joke, but it's actually a fairly likely scenario. Remember the PSOne? It was only just discontinued.
Let's see, what next-gen platform is PS2 (and PSX) compatible?
Sony is betting the farm on a happy convergence of Blu-ray, compelling PS3 titles, and HDTV critical mass.
Microsoft is betting (but not the farm) on getting in first. Microsoft intends to own your digital hub, and they're prepared to lose a whole pile of money getting there. We've seen them behave similarly with Access (which was used to kill Paradox, et al), Video for Windows / Windows Media Player, Internet Explorer, and so on. There's a huge market at stake, and it's worth billions to kill its current owner. The fact that this is technically illegal is a minor annoyance.
Indeed by making the XBox 360 far more technically distinct from a Windows PC than the XBox (which basically was a PC) Microsoft may be trying to avoid potential antitrust action (it could be argued that XBox was an attempt to leverage its desktop monopoly power, whereas XBox 360 is merely an attempt to buy into a new market by using money made with its desktop monopoly). It seems highly unlikely they did it to make developers happy. (Yay, another bizarro platform with a new API to develop for!)
So far, getting in first hasn't worked very well for Atari, Colecovision, Nintendo, and Sega, so good luck to Microsoft there. It's not clear to what extent the PS2's success was driven by it's serving as a (for the time) inexpensive, high quality DVD-player (we've bought and stopped using three or four DVD players since we bought our PS2, and the PS2 still works -- even if it does ask you to override parental controls for almost every DVD; all but one of the other DVD players has eaten it).
In a sense, the success or failure of the Wii is about as relevant to the Sony/Microsoft battle for control of your "digital lifestyle" as the success or failure of the DS (or PSP), which is to say -- not totally irrelevant, but not central. No sane person is going to store the only copy of their family photographs on a PSP. The reason the Wii is so much more exciting (to gamers) than its competitors is that Nintendo is all about games. Wii will never by our digital hub, and we don't care.
Frankly, I wish someone would figure out that a digital hub ought, basically, to be an application-agnostic, really big, reliable mass storage device, and all the other crap should be peripheral.
1. Innovative new controls. Will it be fun? Who knows... but a lot of people will try it out to see.
2. Aforementioned price point.
3. Backward controller compatibility. You can use your Cube controller for games that support it (ala the awesomeness that will be the next Smash Bros).
4. Virtual console. Sure you can get these as illegal roms, but I have this strange desire to compensate Nintendo for finally giving me this option. Ironically enough, I'm probably looking forward to playing the old classics more than some of the Wii games.
But the real reason I like Nintendo is because they're sticking to what they're good at... making gaming systems. Their console isn't made to play music, watch super HD content, bake bread, take out the trash, etc... It's made to (gasp) play games. And because of that, it costs (gasp) a third the price of the PS3 all in wonder system, packed full of features that most people really don't want *cough* Blu Ray *cough*. If I wanted to do all that, I'd buy a computer... which I do anyway, plus my computer is better at doing those things than some bloated, overpriced console.
So I wouldn't count the Wii out just yet...
Why do these people who continue to make horrendous attempts to predict the future still have readers? Or better yet - jobs? I can't understand why people like Dvorak are still allowed to write.
Tags are for finding related articles, not for your personal opinion. That's what the comments and your journal are for. If that's not enough, make your own website.
It's a very dark ride.
64% of all statistics are made up. And "they" are never wrong.
Nintendo does have a pretty good game developer completely committed though...
Themselves.
Even worst case, they can fall back on Mario, Zelda and other series to pull them through this generation.
I honestly wouldn't be surprised if Nintendo could survive on just Zelda.
According to some early reviews, the "innovative" Wii controller is actually difficult to use.
All these Nintendo fanboys haven't factored this in.
Sorry MS & Sony ... although your products are cool I can't afford them and won't pay $600+ for a console. Hell, I can't even substantiate that amount for a PC. As long as Nintendo sticks the price around $250, I'll buy it. Hell for that price, I could buy two Wii consoles. These devices are disposable -- by the time the 360, PS3 and Wii have been out for a year the fight for the next-next-gen consoles will start.
"Keep at least 3-6 full bottles of hard alcohol on hand, a 2 week resignation notice,..." - Poetmatt
well since prices for the wii are going to be $250 then i dont see how it will not have more fan base then a 700$ system seriously... and the amazing games that are going to be comming out for wii that will be equaly as good on the other three systems... it is pointless to spend more money to get the same things... Xbox only really has halo to thank for its game systems dominance... but then again bungi was going to make it for mac first... then MS bought out the game
(yes i know i suck at spelling fell free to correct my grammar and/or spellin i dont care, im still not going to change
I believe the numbers speak for themselves.
The people who are informed on the actual capabilities and the ones who alot of the rest of the purchasing base look to for suggestions have spoken. Viva La Revolution! Wiiiiiiiiiiiii!!
I for one welcome our arm-flailing overlords!
Did you know that you can be apathetic to apathy? Not that I give a shit...
... and ease-of-development, continued LIVE superiority, XBLA...
Sony is betting the farm on a happy convergence of Blu-ray, compelling PS3 titles, and HDTV critical mass.
-- Not sure what is "happy" about it. No-one (by that I mean *much* less than the 100 Million Sony is shooting for) wants Blu-ray OR HDDVD, I haven't seen more compelling PS3 Titles than exist on 360 or Wii (only 2 to 3 on each console so far). The number of HDTV owners is in the noise right now, and will be until price/content are more consumer friendly.
There's a huge market at stake, and it's worth billions to kill its current owner. The fact that this is technically illegal is a minor annoyance.
-- WTF??? Other than *being Microsoft* what crimes have they committed in the videogame arena?
So far, getting in first hasn't worked very well for Atari, Colecovision, Nintendo, and Sega
-- Well, I think we've established that MS has alot more going for it than "getting there first", but whatever. Let's go with it... When did Atari come in first... and lose? Are you talking about 5200 and Jaguar? Atari was already dead by then (see Tramiel). Colecovision? They were last after the 2600 & Intellivision. For that matter, was there a successful system launched *after* the Colecovision and *before* the videogame crash? The Nintendo N64 has a lot more in common right now with PS3 than the 360, so careful about the analogies. I'll give you Sega, though :)
In North America they said.
The absolutely best and biggest market for XBox was North America. The absolutely worst market for Nintendo Cube was North America.
Im sure most credible analysts would have different predictions for Asia and Europe.
Jason Anderson, Xbox Canada 's Group Marketing Manager, predicts success for the xbox. 0.0 JASON ANDERSON IS WITH XBOX MARKETING CANADA. !?!?!?!
Tags are for, well, tagging. They are for saying that this article fits in a certain category, which "zonked" does by identifying every insance of next-gen console fanboyism on the part of Zonk.
It's not just my personal opinion if other people decide to use the tag as well, which is why I posed the message so we all use a common tagging format.
"There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
It took me a little while to figure it out as well - from the front page, next to existing tags there is a small arrow just to the left. Click on that and a window expands to show current tags, and also an input box - simply type whatever you like in there (in this case "zonked") and press the "Tag" button next to the box.
"There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
The forecast predicts 10.6 million consoles in homes for Xbox 360, 6.8 million for PlayStation 3, and a modest 3.5 million for Wii in 2007. In 2008, Anderson suggests 15.5 million units in homes for the 360, 13.5 million for PS3, and 6.8 million for Wii. He does mention that his group expects the PS3 to win out in the installed based race in the end, perhaps in 2009.
Frankly, with all of the positive publicity and feedback from the gaming community, I am *shocked* that he predicts the wii will have *HALF* the install base of the PS3. It's probably hard not to use gamecube sales as a metric, but it just seems like asking anybody in the street you'd get AT LEAST 50/50 between the PS3 and the wii. I simply have a hard time believing the wii is going to flop like he predicts.
At least based on what we've seen and heard about the wii so far. Sure, Nintendo could blunder the wii and release a bunch of crappy games at $60 a pop and have a bunch of manufacturing defects in their launch shipment, but seriously... based on what we know TODAY, can you really make such a conclusion without looking like a fanboi?
DS is only slightly ahead of the PSP in North America, where as in Japan, it's not even a race.
The DS vs. PSP war has a much better question to teach us: if Nintendo only sells half as many consoles as the other companies - a sale which does not produce profit for at least two of the big three, but sells three to four times as many first-party-developer game titles as the other systems, which one do you think is coming out happier about their share of the market? Did this guy not look at the E3 reports and see the number of titles that already looked exciting on the floor for the Wii, whereas the 360 is still having a tepid time getting good titles out for its platform? Let Microsoft sell all the 360's they want - they don't make a dime off of that. Show me the sales charts for their software division before you try to impress me.
Libertarians somehow believe that private businesses should be stronger than governments but weaker than individuals.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xbox#Market_share
Though the GameCube came in last, it did not "trail significantly." Xbox outsold it by less than 1.5 million consoles. I really want to know why you think the Wii will have lower sales as well - the GameCube couldn't touch the marketing hype the Wii is tapping into.
Oh, and most people I know either want or have a 360, really want a Wii, and think the PS3 is ridiculously overpriced.
Toyota and Honda sell a lot more Camry's and Accords than Lamborghini sells anything. They also make a lot more money. If you can offer something for everyone you will make a lot more money than targeting the hard core user in just about any market.
See my blog http://ilovecookes.blogspot.com/ for light hearted technical information.
It's them and all the people that haven't actually bought it or played it. It has the great game play, great games, (sure not top of the sellers list, but they are all worth 1,000's of hours of replayable fun. Sure it has its faults, but all in all it's the most technically playable system out there. The Gameboy substitutes as a controller, ( imagine the possibilities, if they had senseless funding to research other possibilities with that.) and the new, motion sensor controller, what other system compares. It's the gamers out there that are looking for the fastest system, handling the most complex games, and not paying for attention to the detail of playability. What people need to realize is that there is only so much to do with the graphics, and there is no end to the replay value of a game.
Sorry, Sony isn't going to pay YOU.
A Good Troll is better than a Bad Human.
Look, this is NOT news. It's an opinion, and it's a terrible one at that. I don't read this website to learn "how badly zonk thinks the xbox will beat everything else". I come here to read about new CPU architectures, space exploration tech, cutting lasers, and attacks on freedom of information, etc etc. Leave your opinions in your room, Zonk. You're a news writer, correct? I don't think anyone wants this site becoming like ****ing Fox news, those pigs. Now, on the other hand, I'm not writing a news report, so I can tell you that I think the Wii will do a lot better than these M$ fanboys think. They have an excellent plan, unlike the brute-force plan that Sony and M$ always follow.
Internet: Serious Business
Can't you promise to eat your hat (or shorts or something) _when_ Wii sells more than any of the xbox360 or ps3?
Yeah right, like that will ever happen.
I wouldn't be surprised it Wii had sold more than Gamecube within 2 years from launch.
...the beginning of the Space Age, and Doris Hinglemann's ass boils.
OMG! A financial analyst predicted something! Stop the presses! HE'S A SEER! HE KNOWS THE FUTURE!!!!
So what they're saying is there is going to be a trail of Wii?
I wonder if someone at microsoft leaked this information?
ôó
... and he wants to sell all of it soon to pay for his 'lectro-shock ther'py
hate to be a douche and yeah I see that there's a couple other posts saying the same thing now (the analyst is stupid for basing his opinion totally on previous console sales) but how exactly did a post that wasn't modded anything get modded over-rated? It would be redundant if anything, and even then it's a matter of who said what first.
In Soviet Russia they might:)
360 is currently being outsold by the PS2, fer cryinoutloud. Which is a really bad sign.
When the next generation offers only a modest graphic upgrade and fewer in-game features (360) or wildly unaffordable hardware (PS3), one wonders what the result will be... will Wii win by default, or will less-hardcore gamers just not even bother with the next generation or move on to some non-gaming diversion altogether? Not hard to see 360/PS3's mutual suckiness crashing the industry pretty hard.
--realinvalidname
If his prediction turns out to be completely and utterly wrong (wrong 1,2,3; massively incorrect sales data etc) can we be assured by Slashdot editors that this is one 'analyst' we will never have to read about again. Or will we be treated to another 'out of his ass' prediction the next time a significant technology launch occurs.
Yes... let's make fairly specific sales numbers (down to the 100,000 even) for the next two years. After all, the three upcoming systems are EXACTLY like the Cube/PS2/XBox.
Oh wait, no they're not. The price ratios are vastly different from the "old" three systems to the "new" three systems. The machine capability ratios are vastly different. Hell, not only is the Wii completely out in left-field from the other systems, I'm not even sure if it's in the same ballpark!
In short... they're trying to compare things that they've seen to things that are completely and utterly different.
And besides all of the above, does anyone REALLY expect Microsoft to keep that same system until 2009? Given their rush from the x-box to the 360, I honestly don't expect the 360 to stay in the market past 2008.
Planet Zebeth - Metroid with a twist
The psone and ps2 would show otherwise. Sony has always pushed for all kinds of third party support. Variety is guranteed on the ps3.
Hmmm... Pie...
Yet, modded insightful proving that ratings in these threads mean crap. You got the ps3 pricing wrong. Xbox360 will suddenly lose 40 games from it's library, and wii is weak in graphics (even nintendo says so).
Hmmm... Pie...
Now without the broken links:
SNES
Genesis
Saturn
3DO
Jaguar
Neo-Geo
7. What we cannot speak about we must pass over in silence.
And on the very same page as the link listed is another link describing how "Sony could come in last" (rather than second) in the next-gen "race". Point being regarding any such premonitions?...grain, salt, take it. :)
Nintendo is going with long tail on this, or that traditionally, you can market to 20% of the market (hardcore gamers?) with 80% of your power, and the remaining 20% to the remaining 80% of the market. Wii looks to capture this remaining "long tail" section with a broadly advertised system that many people have appeal to.
DS was the testing ground for this. Wii is going to be a strong competitor with appeal on all fronts.
There's a reason we have 5 to 7 day forecasts from the Weather Channel or the NOAA. There isn't a good way to keep predicting once you go that far, too much depends on what happens in the days preceding it. The further down the road you go, the greater difference "small" changes a few miles back make.
To predict as far ahead as this guy has is akin to predicting what the weather will be one month ahead. All the science in the world will be about as accurate as throwing darts at a board with pictures of various conditions. This is especially true as two systems haven't even had their launches yet. Without those pivotal events behind us yet, trying to predict past them is a smoke and mirrors divination at best.
Thunderclone: ONE MAN ENTERS! TWO MEN LEAVE! ONE MAN ENTERS! TWO MEN LEAVE!
You may try and silence me, but it seems I have won round one and the tag "zonked" has indeed been established. I will see you in metamod and we shall see which moderators are punished for trying to quiet dissent.
We shall see what happens with the next Zonk related next-gen missive...
"There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
Yeah, there's always hope. But you remember when the PS2 came out? People *wanted* a DVD player. That was my point.
Dumping is illegal. E.g. you are a huge company making insane amounts of money off some random product. You pick a smaller strategic competitor and then give away or sell at below cost a roughly equivalent product until that competitor dies. At your option you then start charging for the product or integrate it into some other product you sell. This is what Microsoft has done with Borland / Paradox, NetScape, and attempted to do to Apple / QuickTime, Sony etc. Another company well known for operating this way is deBeers (the diamond cartel).
Microsoft's use of XBox as a loss-leader wedge into the games market isn't as egregious as its behavior with, say, Borland, but if the eminently bribable Republicans hadn't won in 2000, Microsoft would be three companies by now and wouldn't be able to fund forays into the games business with Operating Systems sales.
Wow. Lots of hate in that last rant. Brought in the Republicans, too, eh? Are you sure you don't want to bring Haliburton into this somehow? BTW, Sony plans on losing at least 1 Billion USD in the first year launching the PS3... is that not dumping? It seems to meet all your criteria, except... yeah... Sony isn't Microsoft. And the DeBeers reference? Debeers doesn't "dump". They do the exact opposite. Harvest all the diamonds and then let them trickle out to the market. Are you saying MS did that with the XBox?
Well, I think we've established that MS has alot more going for it than "getting there first", but whatever.
No, you've just asserted it.
Yes, and now you're asserting that MS doesn't. Touche!
Actually, Microsoft risks being beached on 720p when 1080p becomes dominant, not supporting bluray, isn't 100% backwards compatible with XBox, and has no compelling titles exclusive except the unreleased Halo. (And Halo wouldn't be exclusive if they hadn't bought Bungie.)
So when do you suppose "1080p becomes dominant?" 3, 5, 10 years from now? Do you think Nintendo will be "beached" because they don't support 720p? As for back-compat, post me a list of all the "great" Xbox games that arent' currently backward compatible (I did that one for you... Halo... check!). Compelling 360 game: Does Bioshock ring a bell? Best game of E3? I've now just doubled your list of compelling 360 games. Sorry you're mad about MS buying Bungie. Mac owner, perhaps?
It does? Let's see -- backwards compatible? No. Lots of compelling titles? No. Plays the up-and-coming (perhaps) video format? No. (Microsoft supports HD-DVD, which is increasingly looking like the loser format, but XBox 360 doesn't have one built in as standard. Bluray may ALSO lose -- and in fact both may lose). Looks to me like all XBox 360 would need to match N64 on every count would be shipping games on cartridges.
What up and coming video format didn't the N64 support? You lost me here. Your argument had promise until you forgot the topic of said argument
It's pretty clear you're pro Microsoft. That's fine. I'm arguing against the conventional wisdom du jour that you can stick a fork in Sony's ass because XBox 360 rocks and PS3 is late when their OLD product is still outselling Microsoft's NEW one. This isn't a zero sum game; both (even all three) may succeed or fail.
It's even clearer to me your hate of Microsoft (/Republicans/loss-of-Halo-as-Mac-exclusive) is affecting your ability to reason. The funny part is that I don't think you're a Sony fanboy... I think you're so filled with hate over Microsoft that anyone who doesn't hate them as much as you do looks "pro Microsoft". You're right. This isn't a zero-sum
I do admit the 360 has done everything right in their launch and of course they are going to be on top for quite a while.
Personally I'm around a lot of 12-year-old kids, having 12-year-old twins myself. The 360 system has zero buzz to it. Nothing.
My son's best friend has an original X-Box. He and his older brother saved up and got one, at enormous expense for them. They're among the few families I know who have a big HD screen, too, so that's the market for the 360 and the PS3. They have no intention of buying a 360, because it's out of their price range and because their original XBox is fried now. That was a ton of money for kids to spend on a piece of hardware that can't take it, you know? They remember stuff like that. So in the case I know personally MS has lost the market, even among kids who previously bought their product.
MS also wanted to break into the Japanese market, supposedly went out of their way to encourage RPGs and so on in the release titles just to appeal there. Brzzt! A few months in they were underselling the GameCube -- not just the PS2, the GameCube -- in that market.
"Everything right" that ain't.
"Fundamentalism" isn't about divine morality. It's about human authority.
Total cost of ownership for either the Xbox 360 or the PS3 would be well over a grand for me. Remember, you have to have the HD screen too.
But then again those adults in the 20-30 area with disposable income is the target of the 360...
You're talking to a kid who played Utopia on the Intellivision, the original Civ, Ultima III, and M.U.L.E. for more hours than I could estimate accurately. I'm in my 30s, have disposable income to spare. I also have my kids eager as can be for the Wii. I've never bought a console in my life with my own money, and will probably be doing this one.
Personally I imagine both Sony and MS overreached, banking on market saturation by HD sets that isn't close to being here. You describe a target market that's in its 20s but eagerly spending $1500 on a game console, basically. Or if we assume the PS3 and 360's markets are only people who'd have an HD monitor already, how much does that cut the potential market right off the bat? I dunno... one of these three companies is trying to expand its market, and the other two seem doggedly to be trying to force their existing market to swallow bigger and bigger lumps of cost...
"Fundamentalism" isn't about divine morality. It's about human authority.