Slashdot Mirror
Computer Mouse Heading For Extinction
slatterz writes "The computer mouse is set to die out in the next five years and will be usurped by touch screens and facial recognition, analysts believe. Steven Prentice, vice president and Gartner Fellow, told the BBC that devices such as Nintendo's MotionPlus for the Wii and Apple's iPhone point the way to the future, offering greater accuracy in motion detection."
But ... but ... I have a relationship with my mouse! It's one of the two things I have my hand on all day long. Oh, behave! I meant my keyboard.
Somewhat more seriously, do you really want your screen to have ... stuff all over it? Personally, I don't let anyone touch my screen. Or imagine an office with everyone yelling at their computer, "No, God damn it! The other left!"
But in practice, it will take a lot more than 5 years. 25 years, maybe.
The World Wide Web is dying. Soon, we shall have only the Internet.
hahahhahahahaha I call bullshit on that. Taking all bets.
Because the mouse is old will never replace the fact it is an incredibly intuitive and powerful HID. You can use it all day without getting sore (mostly) and best of all, it wont accidentally trash half your files if you sneeze and move your hand at the same time.
meh, that just stupid. So I can hold my hand up in the air to get 3-d motion on a 2-d interface? Or rest my hand on the desktop and get 2-d motion in a 2-d interface... hmm, tough choice.
Sure, touch screens have advantages in some areas, but overall they are not a replacement for a mouse.
Not only that, but 5 years? Thats silly.
---- Booth was a patriot ----
The last thing I'd want is fingerprints smudged all over my monitor. I'll still with my mouse, thanks.
Don't leave your mind so open that your brain falls out. Don't close it so much that you cut off the blood.
Mouse is heading for extinction, eh? You try playing Counter-Strike with a tablet or touchscreen and get back to me on that.
The advent of the mouse killed the keyboard, too, after all. And the internet made TV obsolete, which killed newspapers a few decades ago.
Slowly I get really fed up with such predictors. I have a touchscreen. Actually, I'm using it right now as a display for writing this. Do I use it? Usually, no. I use it at certain special occasions, but it certainly does not replace my mouse. Why? Because it's inconvenient! I have to lift my arm, lean to my screen, aim with my finger and ... miss usually my mark.
And now, try to right-click. Or do a sensible click-drag operation.
Seriously, does anyone still listen to those modern soothsayers?
We used to have a Bill of Rights. Now, with the rights gone, all we have left is the bill.
Touchcreens just aren't accurate enough for real computers. They are used for things like phones because there's no convenient way to put a mouse on a phone.
The cake is a pie
So, to increase accuracy, I'm supposed to slap at the screen with my pizza-slopped fingers? Facial recognition? Maybe banging my head on my desk will act as a signal to restart Windows yet again.
Somebody who has some obscure input device, which will "kill the mouse", probably paid Gartner to conduct yet another bogus study that seeks to convince people what technology to use as opposed to demonstrate what they are actually using.
I wonder if the author has ever tried to stand upright and move a Wiimote around for 8 hours a day 5 days a week.
No? Can't handle it? Didn't think so.
Motion input is cool for things like games but it will never replace the mouse because humans simply are not designed to hold their arms out in front of their bodies for long periods of time.
In the WoW forums, people will be made fun of for being a winker, instead of a clicker.
Don't forget that every so often some "analyst" will predict that "voice recognition" will replace whatever input method you currently use.
Still hasn't happened.
This is not news, because it's not true. Five years is nowhere near long enough for any change to occur in an input device which almost every desktop and laptop workstation uses. Think about it: all they point to are the Wii controller and touch screens on smart phones. These are horrible indicators for gaging the future of general purpose computer trends.
The Wii is a gaming console, and the iPhone is a cell phone. They are devices which fit into a very specific market and therefore have evolved to have input mechanisms that work well within that market. Not to mention that both of these examples are not comparable in any way: TVs/projectors aren't touchscreens, and iPhones don't point at anything.
If you expect us to believe the mouse is going away so soon, then you need to show us the currently available viable alternative that not only fulfills the functionality of the mouse, but surpasses it. To believe that such a method of input is not only available now, but also will be inexpensive enough to acheive market dominance over a device which basically every desktop/laptop user has grown accustomed to... it's just plain silly.
This seems like more of a troll statement to get clicks or news coverage than anything else.
As long as I have a keyboard I could care less about the mouse
So touch-screens will cost $5?
I haven't used a mouse in months, but you'll have to pry my trackpoint from my cold dead fingertip.
Already thesedays they're complusory for laptops/notebooks [being built into the system]. Will they become more commonplace for desktops too?
If each mistake being made is a new one, then progress is being made.
will be usurped by touch screens and facial recognition
I guess the guy never used touch screens, that's why he is so sure. And nobody "used" facial recognition so far, that makes it even a better idea...
The most basic issue here is the interface. People don't write with facial contortions. We write with our hands. Why? Because our hands are the most precise tools that we have, and they are well built for the task.
However our hands (and arms) are not good for holding them, for hours, in front of a vertical surface of a screen. Many screens are positioned so that the "touch" interface is therefore impossible. Besides, there isn't enough precision in our fingers even if we wear claw-like stylus. Mouse can be, and often is configured to translate larger movement of the sensor into a very precise, sub-millimeter movement of the cursor. This is necessary in most applications, selecting from a menu being an example. Touch screens do not allow this "magnification" of the movement, as well as any non-linear response (that is also common.)
The input devices will likely change over time, but unless our bodies change also the mouse or a touchpad interface will remain useful for a long time, just like a keyboard. I personally believe that we will have direct brain control over the mouse and keyboard functions earlier than we will be able to replace the mouse with a better mouse - it's a simpler task. It's also probably possible to design a crude AI that is just enough to decode speech; but the speech interface is not very efficient either - try to talk for an hour and see what happens to your throat.
All these predictions are just noise made by people who want to attract undeserved attention. There is nothing wrong with a mouse as it is now, and there should be no rush to replace it with something that is not tested and by all reasoning can't even work. The mouse works, we test it for decades by now.
The problem with predicting the demise of the mouse is that old technologies have to be *completely* replaced by new ones if they are to disappear. Touch screen interfaces have their uses especially for mobile devices, but I don't see how being able to navigate imprecisely in three dimensions by waving my hands about is going to help me edit a two-dimensional text display. Touch screen interfaces have actually been around for more than five years already. I don't see them taking over the *mouse's* role. How many mice were attached to early mobile phones? It's not a question of one technology supplanting another, but of being used for a different purpose.
Touch is not a good choice for a desktop device because you must take your hands away from the keyboard, wave them in front of a monitor, get fingerprints all over it, and make your arms tired. It's poor ergonomically for this sort of device. Do you want to hunch over a display and stare down at it so that you can use your desktop or laptop? Touch screens are also costly.
Mice are not a good choice for a handheld like the iPhone because of size and the need for a hard surface. Touch is a good choice for something like the iPhone because display and surface area are at a premium, and because traditional pointing devices take up lots of room. Touch is really required to provide minimal functionality. (Note that stylus based interfaces or cell phone keypads are also a form of touch, although they do not work as well.)
This is, as always, wrong. Analysts never get this stuff right. The iPhone has shown the ability of a touchscreen with multi-touch to have a great interface. Notice that the iPhone was never a device with a mouse. Phone don't have mice (except for trackballs on some blackberries).
I'd love some of that multi-touch goodness in OS X. Let my trackpad start doing it. But let's get real here. We need mice.
All our interfaces are designed around them and keyboards. They are cheap (under $5 for a simple optical). They are precise. They are familiar. They need very little physical movement (just tiny wrist movements). A tablet gives you the precision a mouse does. I'd say they are far more likely to take over than generic touchscreen. Perhaps combos like Wacom Centiqs.
I'm w aiting for the FPS that figures out a way to use touchscreens for precision aiming.
The Wii has shown us some great things, but that's for games. How many people do you think want to waggle their way through creating powerpoint presentations?
I've got a Wii. What do some the best control schemes often use it for? That's right... a mouse! LostWinds (just finished, great game) uses it as a pointing device. Metroid Prime 3 uses it for aiming much like a mouse. Zack & Wiki (when not performing motions) uses it like a mouse. Every menu in every game uses it like a mouse. The console's own menu uses it like a mouse. And when Pikmin 3 comes out I'm willing to bet a fair bit of money that it will use the control mostly as... a mouse.
The mouse is just about the perfect 2D interface. There is probably a reason we've been using them for over 25 years (it's been about that long since the Macintosh came out, and I'm well aware they were available before that). When we get a real 3D interface (like some kind of hologram projecting surface/table) then we may need a new input device some of the time, but for now, the mouse will be around for a very long while.
Comment forecast: Bits of genius surrounded by a sea of mediocrity.
Now rolling your face over the keyboard could become a reality.
Love many, trust a few, do harm to none.
A touchscreen requires greater arm movements than a mouse, and there's no place to rest your hand while interacting with the screen. A facial interface requires either the use of a button (like a mouse that doesn't move), or the use of awkward facial expressions to indicate actions.
Thank you all the same, but I'd rather use a mouse.
"In prison you just have to shut your eyes and take it. Here you have to shut your eyes and give it."
So you are going to control your mouse pointer all day by keeping your arm in the air with your finger touching your screen? I think not.
There is no way I'm keeping my arm stretched out in front of me to navigate my browser.
I use an RF optical mouse, and my usual browsing position is pushed back in my chair, working the mouse on my left leg.
I keep my mouse pad at knee height, positioned to the right of my leg. No wrist strain at all. Then there's my Model M, with my forearms nearly horizontal, and I'm looking slightly down at my 19 inch monitor.
I ain't going to talk at it or wave at it or keep in in my lap.
Next up: the combination of both those future bound GUI technologies, The WiiPhone (TM). It doesn't have any screen at all, you just throw it at whoever you want to talk to! Now if all things were that simple...
A World in a Grain of Sand / Heaven in a Wild Flower,
Infinity in the Palm of your Hand / And Eternity in an Hour.
In five, ten or twenty years, someone will devise a new human interface device to replace the mouse, keyboard or both. It won't be the touch screen, and it likely won't be facial recognition, at least in any form existent today. Mostly likely it will be some sort of voice recognition, which would be a boon to the visually impaired. What about speech/hearing impaired people? What about people with poor motor control? A new interface needs to be an improvement, not just a change.
I'll believe it when I see it.
Ratpoison Window Manager for X windows
Say goodbye to your rodent right, now. Just download Ratpoison.
C-t c brings up a terminal emulator
C-t 0 (screen 0)
C-t 1 (screen 1)
Get rid of the rat right now, not in the future. You may also want to download the conkeror web browser to browse internet without point and click as well using only your keyboard.
... rip it from my cold dead carpal-tunneled hand.
No mod points, no meta-moderating/Firehose/all the other free work Slashdot wants me to do.
I've used a touchscreen enabled interface at work for nearly 3 year. Thing is I have only touched the screen about 1% of that time, the rest I have used the keyboard simply because it is more responsive and faster.
I drink therefore I am!
Facial recognition doesn't even work at all, even on specialized HW, SW, and selected test subjects. In 5 years, maybe it might work occasionally. Not replace the mouse. Nor will any of those other brand new special skills input devices. Hell, the majority of PCs even now are probably about 5 years old, and we're about to plunge into a "recession" that won't even have the vast debt to prop it up that the past decade had.
Gartner has always been nothing but a PR mill to market "mindshare" of directions in computer industry trends. I've never read a Gartner report or employee (or "Fellow", which must really take bribing) that was anything other than "Big Computer Corp X wishes this report would come true".
Think about the gaming magazine "reporting" you read, and how it's all PR. Big computer corps, like Apple, Microsoft, Dell - and probably Sony, Nintendo etc, all trying to become "computer" corps or their synthesis - have even more money to buy reporting. And Gartner isn't even saying it's "journalism". It's like those 1990s Internet Bubble stockbrokers' in-house "analysts", whose reports always said that whatever stocks the brokerage was vested in would go nowhere but up. In fact, those fake analysts are still doing the same thing, and the market is still a wasteland because of it. Gartner has even less accountability, and even less of a track record of guessing right, rather than wishing hard.
I bet Gartner predicted in 1999 that by 2008 we'd all have Aeron chairs and foosball tables.
--
make install -not war
Sure, just like voice recognition and handwriting recognition replaced keyboards ten years ago...
So I wont be able to use my mouse to play Duke Nukem Forever?
Smudge screen technology is going to replace the most effective tool for controlling movement(game angles), not freaking likely. Just because MSoft wants to push windows 7 crap on us does not mean the masses will accept it. Who the hell would want to sit so close to their monitor they have to touch it and wipe it constantly when one can sit 10 feet back and use a wireless mouse and keyboard. When you can use a HDtv as your monitor instead of a stupid overpriced monitor that MS thinks everyone wants to go out and buy.
Fact is the mouse and keyboard are some of the most dirty germ infested things in everyones house. How Microsoft could see adding the monitor to the lot a good idea i will never know, well it must be so they can push brand new monitors and hardware on people.
Heck i know that i want other people to have to touch my monitor to work the PC... Females with long nails mmmmm scratches incoming. But hey i guess we can all just buy a new monitor every month...
Heck i know when i am playing a PC game i want my hands in the way so i can not see what the heck is happening...
But hey lets listen to analysts and so called experts who know jack about anything. They know what we want and need better then we do right?
Must be the same guy that predicted that keyboards would go away, replaced by voice interface.. (although he seems to have finally parted out with this one !)
So the guy is basically envisioning that people are going to go for something like what you can see in the 'Minority Report' flick right ?
Try holding you hands high in the air for 8 hours in a row while not eating or drinking, not speaking to anybody on the phone or in the office or your dear kin.
The guy is basically forgetting one of the main reason the mouse is here (and here to stay too) : it allows multitasking, with your hand comfortably resting on the table (ok.. leading to CTS, but that's another story).. You can work, or have fun while you also interact with the world..
The scroll button on the mouse is also here to stay !
Wii type motion sensor controllers are too tiring and too demanding, touchscreen requires to have you hands up in the air and to be within a few inches of the screen, and facial recognition requires you to focus entirely on the task at hand..
Tss tss.. I wish I was paid to be an 'analyst' to make phony predictions like this guy..
--Ivan
Serious guys, this is weak even by Gartner's august standards.
"I, based on a sample set that includes one video game console and a device too small to fit a mouse, designed by a company who, for all their expertise in UI and design, has a ghastly history with pointing devices, declare that the mouse is dead!"
I agree that, with advances in cheap MEMS accelerometers and various sorts of touch/motion sensors, pointing devices for hardware too small to support a real mice will probably be elevated from "about as much fun as injecting acid into your eye" to "more endurable than not surfing the internet while on this elevator" and use of nonmouse devices for various sorts of game and design input will probably become reasonably intuitive and in some cases better than a mouse.
Beyond the mere silliness, I find the vague premise behind this sort of article a little disconcerting. It seems to have oozed from the same pit as the "zOMG the cellphone is the future of the computerwebs!~!!@!11!" genre. If all computers are good for is talking at your friends, "personalizing" your ringtones and "consuming premium content", then sure, a bunch of cheap, locktight platforms with a UI based on pointing and grunting will be fine. I hope, though, that we don't let more interesting uses of computers get crowded out by the dross.
to use touch screen means you gotta touch the monitor, which leaves oils on it and makes blurry of the picture, so you will end up having to clean it every day hench the company that makes the cleaner is gonna make $$$ off it
Yeah touch-screens can be a bit messy, but not anything like a mouse.
I've been using mice for years and there are no ends to problems with them, I tell you. Mousecrap everywhere, rabies, bubonic plague, claw-scratches, disposal of used mice, mice crawling up your ass. I mean, the sheer amount of mice you go through playing counter-strike with ADHD, it's hell I tell you.
If you quote this signature there'll be 72 copies of Windows ME waiting for you in Heaven.
Remember the light pen? The touch screen? The head position tracking pointer? All gone from general use.
The problem is that most of these alternative input devices require either more physical effort than moving your hand from the keyboard to the mouse, or they require learning fine motor control over muscles that aren't normally used for that sort of thing and so the learning process will give the user so much pain that they'll give it up before it ever gets a chance.
Light pens and touch screens require lifting your arm up into the air which is much more effort than using the mouse.
The mouse is nearly the perfect input device and is likely to remain the #1 general purpose input device for a LONG time to come. Painless, intuitive, low-effort.
Exotic and specialized input devices will always have a place, but generally only in specialized and exotic situations.
G.
how many people click the "bold" toolbar button when typing something? Keyboard shortcuts beat the mouse in speed, efficiency, and accuracy. They simply require experts (as in an expert system) to use. You've got to know that they exist. BUt could you imagine typing 60 words per minute, and then taking ten seconds to make a few words bold?
Touch screen accuracy is terrible. And it's got nothing to do with the technology. My finger is larger than one pixel. Oh, and my arm blocks my view of the rest of the screen.
You know, this is the same garbage that minority report showcased. Of course it's really cool to do video editting with your arms. Ever gone to the gym and taken boxing as a fitness effort? The most difficult part of boxing is not getting punched in the face -- that's pretty easy. The most difficult part about boxing is holding your hands up for an hour.
I manufacture kiosks and develope kiosk solutions. The only reason that kiosks are touch-screen is because 90% of the public using them don't know how to use a mouse with any sort of speed -- and we're selling tickets on these kiosks to thousands of people each day. Speed matters. And when it comes to accuracy, each on-screen button is is a minimum of one two inches wide by a minimum of one inch tall, with a minimum of one centimetre of space around the button.
All of these great input interface devices are incredibly snazzy, and excellent for particular things. But they are never better than the simpler interfaces for simpler things. A button is a perfect input device -- it's discrete. You know what to do with it, it doesn't require you to look at it, you know when you've pushed it. That's why keyboards benefit from feedback, travel, and texture. That's why there's a little bump on the "5" keypad key, the "5" on my mobile phone pad too, and the "2" and "4" on my car stereo -- I don't have to look at any of them. I can drive, and dial the phone without taking my eyes off of the road.
You can't do any of that with a mouse. It's completely useless without looking at the screen. Could you imagine typing on a touch-screen-type keyboard? No travel, no feedback, no texture, no way to know if you've hit the key at all, let alone the correct one.
In our kiosk manufacturing, touch-screens have another benefit. You can say things like "press here" or "touch here" and people do. It's amazing how many directions are required to teach the public to use something that you think is easily used -- like swiping a credit card. Photographs, animations, the works, and still people swipe their card into the seam of the lcd bezel -- or try to cram it into the animation on the screen. And now some people expect us to use multi-touch screens -- good luck teaching the general public to perform gestures to buy their show tickets.
Oh, by the way, finger prints -- I hope you aren't using your screen for anything important.
Telepathy is the same game. Neural interfaces sound like they're so easy to use. Think about clicking the button, and you'll click the button. "hey, I think all the time, thinking is easy". Sure, you think all the time. But how many times do you think about only one thing? That takes incredibly focus. I don't want to have to meditate for every click, thanks.
Currently, my body has a huge filter. No matter how much I think, my finger only moves when I move my finger. So I can think about pressing button, I can remember pressing it last time, I can think about not pressing the button, and can think that the button is an ugly colour, and stil I haven't pressed it.
The trouble with a bad neural interface is that you need to meditate for every action. The problem with a good neural interface is that it has no idea as to the degree of your intention -- positive nor negative.
So, much like the mouse, a neural interface is great as an analogue input device, and horrible as a discrete one. Think about a simple 2D graphics app -- photo shop, for example. "draw a line" is easy wi
There are some other amazing interfaces.
www.emotiv.com
it reads your brainwaves and can perform certain actions when you think about them. Imagine that you could operate the buttons of a mouse with your mind.
Next is a technology which tracks where you are looking on the screen. This would act like moving the mouse around. So you look at the icon on the screen and think to click it.
http://www.tobii.com/corporate/start.aspx
The emotiv is ready to hit the mass market within a year. The eye tracking is pretty expensive, but it will drop dramatically once it hits volume production.
So, look to point and think to click. Seems pretty intuitive to me.
knob many years ago- recently listed as one of the top ten inventions of the 20th century I would think the mouse ranks up pretty high on the list as well. I don't think its going away very soon. In the case of the knob, modern equipment that uses computer menus and such for the same function has been judged by many people to be unwieldy and doesn't easily provide feedback to the user in real time.
AHAHahahaha these analysts crack me up all the time. I'd bet my life savings in ten years over 95% of people who use computers will still use what they use today.
Not going to happen anywhere near that quickly. The act of lifting your arm up to touch a screen vs. moving to a mouse will lead to a whole new world of strain injuries not to mention that it's just not efficient.
Tablet style devices will become much more common and of course won't use a mouse but for the standard keyboard based system (which the article says isn't going anywhere) the ergonomics of a KB/Mouse combination just isn't going to be replaced any time soon by a touch screen. (augmented, yes... replaced... no.)
Play me online? Well you know that I'll beat you. If I ever meet you I'll "/sbin/shutdown -h now" you. -Weird Al, kinda.
I didn't RTFA but 5 years seems like a little too premature. Companies filled with non-technical computer users wont want to pay these employees to learn how to work with touch screens when they can operate just as well with a mouse and keyboard. Plus, like all new technology, the cost of replacing the current workstation with touch screens as opposed to the traditional station will be significantly more with little to no changes in the worker's efficiency. The cost-benefit analysis in this case just doesn't work out.
Having just tried a Wii for the first time the other day, I think it's interesting -- but for accuracy, it doesn't come anywhere near replacing a mouse. I prefer the Logitech Trackball -- but I just don't see touchscreens (even using PDA-style tap-and-hold for right-click, you lose bandwidth) or accelerometer-based devices (for XY input, the trackball is hard to beat IMHO) replacing mouselike devices anytime soon.
Facial recognition? I'll believe that when I see it. Handwriting recognition? We're a loooong way from that working acceptably. Speech recognition? Well, maybe -- but not in the next few years, unless someone makes a really amazing breakthrough in speech-rec algorithms.
Paleotechnologist and connoisseur of pretty shiny things.
The computer mouse is not a new technology. In a way a mouse is to a computer what a steering wheel is to a car. Sure, there are other steering technologies out there. Sticks work great in fighter jets and handles work great on zero turn lawn mowers, but for general purpose use in cars, there's nothing I've ever seen that's better than a wheel. I'm not stuck on mouse technology...if something genuinely better came around, I'd jump on it in an instant. Touch screens, tablets, pens, touch pads, joysticks, etc., are all better solutions in specific applications, but for plain precision, general purpose pointing on a desktop computer, there is no technology that I've seen that's better than a mouse.
Well...technically....the mouse pointer is more precise...to the dot. Using a finger to do that would not be easy...Technologies are several ...in discussion mainly..Eye movement recognition...well...talk about me geting high...then using my future system...will be a mess.... .. ...aint it?
iphone sure is leading the way
If i were to get rid of the mouse...i would first give a comp to a kid and let him play around with the mouse....
Then once he is used to the mouse.....will take it away....and then let the kid improvise....
Also....remember mouse is a tool...developed to work on the windows enviornment and document types....what if you take away this type of Boxed interface?...think about that for a moment.....hmm...interesting
Its still a long shot...5 years...Naaah....
Technology will have to change....U wanna take away the mouse(a Tool)....u need to change the Main Application interface on which the (Tool) works......
Obviously there are people in this world that write about computers without ever having to work with one. There's a reason the mouse has survived so long in the face of touch pad, tit mouses, track balls, and touch screens. It's simply the best pointing device that anyone has ever come up with. This is why laptops in all their desire to be compact still accommodate an external mouse, and users in all their desire to reduce what they need to carry them bring their mouse along. Of course they have to use the "iPhone" as an example. If anything the mouse will evolve, and adopt forced feedback and other features of the Wii remote. Touch screens are nice for specific purpose Human Machine Interfaces such as bank machines, check out computers, and machine controls.
Facial gestures????? FACIAL GESTURES?? Am I going to spend my work day making funny faces at my computer? Am I going to have to stop everything I'm doing if I'm on the phone because I'll make uncontrolled emotive expressions? Will I no longer be able to collaborate on my computer because it would confuse the sensors? That crap isn't even going to be here in five years, let alone work. Remember how the Aptiva talked to you, that was what? 20 years ago? What's next? Are people going to be telling us our PC will be the size of roll of hockey tape?
New! Device Legs: These legs will help your poor OEM installed product escape any hamfistedness it may encounter. Ava
I can see the touch screen being better for some things (interactive industrial interfaces, wall mounted systems, etc.), but have you ever thought of the most popular thing done with computers...GAMING!
Every tried to play a FPS game with a touch screen? I've done it with a touch pad (oh god, the nightmares) and don't ever TRY to suggest joystick controls as any TRUE FPS gamer will take his mouse by the cord and mouse whip you so hard you'll see game logos circling your head!
Since discovering vimperator, I hardly use the mouse at all.
Typing ']]' will automatically find the 'next' link in most picture galleries.
FF3 + vimperator + half-qwerty, and I'm one-handed surfing all the way!
The hard part (no pun intended) was learning how to do the *other* stuff with my left hand.
http://cafepress.com/spankymm - for the Masturbating Monkey in you!
Wont happen. I saw the science channel predict it too.
It takes too much excercise to do that when a simple wrist movement does the same.
Touch screens or pen screens are good for artists. That's where they shine. Ever do art with a mouse on mspaint?
I agree with the proposition that the mouse is essentially a substitute for touch-screen control, and given my own usage patterns, I could probably do away with my mouse for pretty much everything except drawing in GIMP. (Those of you talking about how people can't hold their arms out for hours on end: Do you really sit around with one hand on the mouse for hours on end, rather than both hands on the keyboard most of the time? I don't know, maybe you do; just something to think about.) There are certainly interface issues to be dealt with, like the fact that you can't "hover" or click with multiple buttons, but I think the iPhone has shown that it's quite possible to deal with them. As for fingerprints--think of it as an incentive to practice good hygiene; do you really want to know what's living on the surface of your mouse? So to the extent they suggest touch-based controls will become mainstream for PCs, I consider that likely.
On the other hand, for the aforementioned case of drawing and similar cases where fine, continuous control is needed, the mouse definitely wins out: it's flat on the desk, it gives you pinpoint precision, and you can map large mouse movements to finer pointer motion. (You could use a zoomable tablet and stylus, granted, but would you want to be hunched over a horizontal display for hours on end?) So I wouldn't go so far as to say the mouse is headed for extinction. It'll simply be one tool in a growing toolbox.
If the keyboard could get killed of then why can't the mouse?
People bitch about RSI etc when using a keyboard/mouse. VR or reaching across your desk to operate a touch screen will be far more strain over a day of desk work or a few hours of gaming/emailing whatever.
About the only area where touch screen is practical is in walk-up kiosks and handheld devices.
Engineering is the art of compromise.
From an ergo standpoint it would be very bad. Think about all the pointing motions you do. Now think about doing ALL of them with your arm outstretched, pointing at your monitor all day. Serious shoulder problems will occur.
As an auxilliary pointing device, great. Replacing? The idea just pisses me off.
When Micro$soft decides to support only its "Surface" in Windows 13, maybe. Of course, if it's for M$-Windows, the only recognizable things on my face will be frustration, anger, and rage at the continual stupidity of the interface. Maybe that can replace the "Start" button to shut it down when I'm too frustrated with it too continue (every 15 minutes, or so).
Large ouch screens look MANGY after a few weeks, and require constant attention if your office has any glare issues. Also, the grease screws with the viewing of pixels, making for a screen that is harder to read.
Touch screens for an iPhone is one thing - it's tiny and the set of expectations are lower in terms of screen appearance. Personally, I go ballistic when some neanderthal starts touching the screen on my computer. Not that they'll hurt it - it just means I have to CLEAN IT. What a pain in the ass.
RS
Shoes for Industry. Shoes for the Dead.
I love my pen-based laptop. I never use my touch pad mouse. I find the pen to be far more efficient at getting to a place on the screen.
Bearded Dragon
Touch screens are nowhere near the accuracy of a computer mouse, and they are a pain to use with desktop computers. Also, the were already around 30 years ago, and the mouse won because it's the better pointing device.
Most people who obtain laptops for the first time will immediately buy a cheap shitty mouse and never use the touchpad again, whether it's a good one or not. That's one more reason why mice are here to stay: don't underestimate the importance of habit.
:)
What such people will never find out is that a touchpad can actually be isgnificantly more comfortable over many hours of use, because the wrist is stressed much less. All movements can be done with a single finger, and if your finger gets tired, you have a few spares. A touchpad is also generally lower than a mouse, so you can rest your wrist while operating the touchpad. Less RSI (repetative strain injury)!
Once I was too lazy to go buy a mouse and I beat Warcraft 3 + Frozen Throne with just the touchpad of my Dell Latitude D800. My hands were not tired even after the rather brutal Warcraft 3 final battle, so I did test my theory
The problem is, none of those technologies are superior to mice.
Look at your desktop. Look at where your monitor is. Look at where your mouse is.
Now, what is easier - reaching up to your monitor every time you want to move the cursor, or reaching over to the mouse?
Mice are more precise than fingers. Mice are less strain than pointing devices.
These analysts are idiots. Technology doesn't get replaced with new technology that doesn't work as well as the existing technology. And mice are better at what mice are used for than any other input device available in the desktop/laptop environment.
paintball
Alternative navigation methods have come up from time to time, but apart from the trackball and cursor keys, pretty much all of them have the same drawback: They lead to what's known as the "Gorilla Arm Syndrome". We humans aren't designed to keep our hands extended and not resting on something for any length of time, and after a while, our arms will feel like they've weighted down with lead. Then, when you quit, you feel you have arms the size of a gorilla. And then the pain sets in.
This is the main reason why touch screens never took off any of the three times they were marketed as the new and wonderful thing. My guess is that this is a fourth attempt, which will meet with no more success.
Even graphic tablets can cause G.A.S., unless they allow you to rest your wrist and arm while using it. If they're much bigger than a mouse pad, many people will have problems.
Ok, maybe it's just me, but when I see accomplishments such as "Gartner Fellow" bandied about, I tend to think "Mindless Drivel"
I skimmed the article. I may have missed a clause where the entire interview was taken downwind of a chemical plant. However...
Citing the announced Wii Motionplus dongle? Really? We were all ignoring things like the gyromouse and other presentation devices/gimmicks for years because all us desk slaves just didn't have the accuracy we would need that a couple extra accelerometers would afford us?
Facial recognition? That deserves a big "whiskey tango foxtrot", as the only thing I've heard of that is for authentication (granted, it tends to get foiled by showing the camera a picture, but that's a different argument) This is a replacement for the mouse, how?
Touchscreens..because pen computing begat tablet computing begat whatever this new thing is. Did someone fix the problem of gorilla arm and forget to inform the rest of the world?
games games games
COLD DEAD HANDS.
I do not see this happening that soon. People are too attached to their mouse. Some people just would not find it appealing to touch their screen. It is much more involved in having to move to touch the screen. People are lazy and they like it that way. It's easier.
One of the most redeeming features of linux is the command line interface. I absolutely hate using the mouse. I find i get carpal tunnel when using the mouse but not keyboard. ergonomically.. the mouse is just an awful device. Also.. dexterity kinda sucks too. I've been waiting for apple to release a touchBook for a long time.
----
Go canucks, habs, and sens!
The mouse isnt going to be replaced until there is eye tracking. Once a camera can track your eye and see accurately what you are looking at, then all you need is a button on your keyboard to click what you are looking at. Replacing a mouse with a wiimote is just moving sideways. The author is an idiot.
The mouse and keyboard won't be replaced for quite some time...and the Wii's controller is more accurate than some things, but pixel for pixel a mouse is much much more accurate. The next step in GUI is something that the iPhone offers though, and that's a GUI that responds to more than one command. I can't believe these people missed the biggest jump that the iPhone offered. The touch screen has been around forever, big deal...but the "multi" in the touch part is what is impressive, and it can extend well past the touch screen.
hasn't happened, there are issues with touch screens that make them imperfect for all uses. and frankly reaching out and smudging my screen isn't something comfortable or attractive
I'll be sticking with the mouse until they make a superior controller for FPS games and general windows pointing. As others have pointed out none of the current technologies are even remotely appropriate.
The only thing I can think of that'd be more useful for me than a mouse for general windowsy-type stuff is some sort of eye-tracking thing that could control the cursor. That'd get the response time down for simple motion operations to the point where it'd be hugely useful - I could keep both hands on the keyboard and simply do everything else with my eyes.
Throw in some better voice control (more accurate and more responsive than what we have now) and then we're talking, but I still can't think of any way to make FPS games better!
I remember reading about people who announced the "death of paper" because of computers. Everyone will read stuff on their displays and we will rarely, if ever, print things on paper anymore.
I don't know about you, but I never bought as much paper in my life since I bought my laser printer. So much for the "death of paper".
I also recall someone claiming the death of the keyboard when the mouse and GUIs were introduced...
The Wiimote is nice, but trying to do anything with precision in Photoshop would be impossible!
I prefer my Wacom Digitizer/tablet. It has a mouse and pen. The mouse is for general use, but the pen is when accuracy is needed.
I can see where some of these other input methods are nice, and have their uses... But I doubt that the mouse is really that close to being replaced yet.
They can take our mice, but they can never take our keyboards! Seriously, I'm fine with just a keyboard for almost everything. Keyboard shortcuts exist for a reason.
Gartner...Is there anything they can't get wrong?
The mouse very well may die as an input device, but it won't be to a touch screen...Imagine websurfing where you have to use both hands. Imagine the likelihood of everyone in the world moving to something that is basically a niche interface that will require either a tablet-style pc or a wireless flatscreen or something...
Now imagine a bunch of people sitting around with bigger better monitors and more reliable cordless mice. That is a 5 year prediction.
ad logicam Claiming a proposition is false because it was presented as the conclusion of a fallacious argument.
As an interaction designer who has designed interfaces for touchscreens, multipoint touchscreens, mice, props and various other peripherals, I simply don't see how this is going to happen in 5 years. Hell, I doubt it will happen at all.
First and foremost, it's not like a touchscreen is inherently better then a mouse. Each input devise has it's own strengths.
Moreover, abandoning the mouse is not going to be an easy thing to do. Aside from the fact that we really need completely retooled OS interfaces, we would need to invest in need completely retooled third party software. Then we would run into ergonomic issues surrounding the neck and or touch screen "gorilla arm."
IMHO, the mouse is a brilliant little input devise. It's no longer the new kid on the block,but that doesn't mean it is a solution that has been surpassed.
"Things are more moderner than before- bigger, and yet smaller- it's computers-- San Dimas High School football RULES!"
I was all prepared to say, "pish-posh!" but then I realized, of the three computers we have at home, one of them uses mouse + writing tablet, one uses a trackball, and one is a laptop with a touchpad + touchscreen. So, while I still think it's silly to predict the absolute demise of the mouse, I do agree that it will continue to lose ground with respect to other input devices, especially considering that more people are using laptops than ever before.
However, the article fails to deeply explore the reasons little devices use force-feedback or tilt sensors to begin with. Not because they are in any absolute sense better than mice, but because they are used in situations where mice are impractical. They're basically consolation prizes in the input sweepstakes. But, when you're actually at your computer, you don't need to tilt-scroll your 24" monitor to see a whole webpage or to type onto a virtual haptic keyboard when you're sitting in front of a real one. And while the Wiimote might be great for certain games, it's not so handy for games that require keyboard input.
There are two kinds of people: 1) those who start arrays with one and 1) those who start them with zero.
The trackball is also effective, but equally disgusting to me unless it's cleaned regularly.
So... you don't clean your mouse? You can use that same bottle of disinfectant spray.
You get to make absurd statements all day and get press coverage for it. sounds like a fun job
If you mod me down, I will become more powerful than you can imagine....
So, to increase accuracy, I'm supposed to slap at the screen with my pizza-slopped fingers? Facial recognition? Maybe banging my head on my desk will act as a signal to restart Windows yet again.
I don't have much respect for Gartner and the technology would have to improve a lot for me to believe this, but I wouldn't rule it out in the long term. Maybe 20-30 years at a guess and even then, I'm not sure if a mouse would go away entirely or if it'll be a touch screen that replaces it. If fingerprints are a problem, you'd expect manufacturers to redesign touch-screens so they're less of a problem, or more durable and easily cleaned. If resolution and accuracy is an issue now (which I think it is), it'll probably improve over the next few years. Just because today's monitors are a bit sensitive to cleaning products doesn't mean tomorrow's have to be.
But realistically, the concept of actually having an explicit device (a "computer", PC, laptop, tablet, whatever) which you use to do a million things, or carry around with you everywhere, could easily become quite dated. The concept of "logging in" (as we know it) might also become dated for most things.
What's to say that the concept of a single device won't be replaced by a concept of lots of much more flexible devices which are more ubiquitous, and why should I need to go out of my way to tell each of these devices who I am? Why shouldn't people just be walking up to a wall or a desk or a refrigerator or scribbling on paper or whatever and interacting with it ubiquitously, without having to think deeply about the digital side of what they're doing? Why would I need to sit down at my PC and add up my finances every few days if my wallet automatically and accurately kept track of it for me?
If you have enough of this kind of environment, the need for dedicated consoles and the bits that go with them evaporates. In these cases, a mouse is a bit redundant because by assuming the use of a mouse you're trying to force the ideal method of interaction for one device onto a whole lot of other devices, each of which is different. That's when I personally think the mouse will disappear.
i can see it already: :quote marsastronaut one to marsastronaut two, after ...
"dude u i wish we did brought a mouse"
touchscreen and shacking the device didn't work
i read about this a few days ago on the bbc and thought 'wait til this hits slashdot'. i can't see any reason why on earth i'd want to use a touch screen compared to a mouse (or graphics tablet at a push).
for one, given my current desktop setup i'd have to reach to the screen by half a metre to touch the thing. there would need to be a _huge_ shift in UI design to facilitate that being any where near useful.
the whole tone of this thought reminds me of how we'd all be controlling our computers/'typing' emails & letters/switching on the coooker with voice commands and look how that all took off so quickly...
jaymz
I am an input device junkie, and have to buy some new gadget every 2 months. Bet it an iphone, a trackball, the new apple wireless keyboard, or a wii controller, even though I do not own a wii.
At work I use an Apple aluminium keyboard and a logitech trackball (trackman wheel), and these two can freak out tech in a way, they are scared to attempt to take my controls over.
My colleagues, even being technical people, absolutely do not give a shit if they get the company standard Dell keyboard, and the cheapest crap optical mouse. They just do not.
I see it right now where I am working, and saw it at HP. Hp keyboards and mouses (mice??) are REALLY crap quality, and still, out of 50 people 1 actually brought a mouse and keyboard to work on something they are accustomed to.
Financial issue? Dunno. I bought the same keyboard and trackball for home and work, so I guess they could do that if they cared.
Where am I getting with this? Well, if techs do not care and just use whatever crap you give to them, then why would an average user switch to any other device other than a keyboard and a mouse? When so many users do not care to shell out +$5 to get DSL instead of sloooooow dialup.
I think this is one of thouse "solar cell triples efficiency, tomorrow we can forget about car batteries" article you see every two months here..
I might be very well wrong, but when people look at me strange to try every good looking input device, I doubt they would get rid of their trusted crappy mouse within the next 10 years
I switched to Linux largely because using mice causes a lot of wrist problems for me. With Linux, I can do 90% of tasks from the keyboard, and moving to the mouse actually becomes a (somewhat) helpful break from typing. It would be more so if I didn't have to use Windows at work and get too much mouse time there. A supplemental touch screen would provide a third action, thus decreasing the strain on the muscles involved in mouse/keyboard use. However, I don't think that it would really be any better than the mouse from an ergonomic perspective. Might be better from a usability perspective, if someone redesigned my entire desktop with touchscreen / physical keyboard in mind. Still, I would prefer a redesign with keyboard only in mind, and maybe some touchscreen/mouse/stylus stuff tacked on for the unavoidable (image manipulation / gaming.)
The profession of "analyst" is set to die out in the next 5 years. The use of analysts to predict the future based on unsupportable extrapolation of early technology trends will start to decline in 2008 and the profession will be totally gone by 2014. These analyst predictions will be replaced with predictions from other sources such as Ouija boards, re-purposed water witches, and randomly clicking on a document with a computer mouse and forming a sentence with the words.
Of course, the best way to tell the future is to wait until it becomes the present and then watch what happens. News sources once used that method to report news, but it fell out of favor due to narcissism and delusions of grandeur among journalists. Journalists found that the couldn't always control events that happened or the facts reported. Predictions don't have this limitation because the predicted events are fictional at the time the story is written.
Only an insensitive clod would desire a world where the touchscreen is god and facial recognition the goddess.
I, for one, am faithful to the ancient religion of the trackball, the one true religion of your interface, and intend to remain faithful to it for ever. No touchscreen is going to make me leave my beloved trackball god.
Mice are for the weak and their days are numbered, but touchscreens and facial recognition are for the evil. Don't sell your soul to touchscreens! Get a trackball and find your eternal true love. If you don't, your infidel soul is going to be deleted from the memory of this universe.
Yours faithfully,
Your Trackball Church Proselytisation Minister, also known as the Propaganda Minister of the Trackball Empire.
That's true, but on the more-precise-than-fingers point, I think it's only correct when you're very strict about your definition of "precise". Keep in mind that you're taking a very flexible arm and hand with 4 fingers and an opposable thumb, and using it to control a device that's about as complex as a baseball bat. (Move it thump move it thump.)
Mice are specifically more accurate than fingers when it comes to accurately indicating tiny screen points in a way that strictly logical software can unambiguously interpret, but you're still losing a lot of flexibility of your hand and fingers as an input device just to remove this ambiguity.
Personally I'm skeptical if touch screens (as they are today) will replace mice, and generally I think Gartner's full of crap when it comes to this and just about everything else they claim to predict, but a mouse isn't exactly a perfect device. It just happens to balance accuracy and utility between humans and the current day's computers better than anything else we have at the moment.
Am I supposed to navigate the x,y plane with my penis?
...these analysts don't play First-Person Shooters. Excuse me while I spin 180 degrees with my finger on a touch screen and say "fire" only to have my computer automatically dial emergency services.
Touch screens are for portable devices and environments where the use of a mouse is not practicable.
Motion sensing is for gimmicky toys (see: Wii) and high tech applications where a human touch is appropriate.
Voice recognition is for dictation.
The mouse will never truly die, get over it.
Disclaimer: I'm sure there are other uses than what I've outlined, but it's unlikely they'll be widespread consumer products.
Homonyms are fun!
You're driving your car, but they're riding their bikes there.
We have not even had a proper chance to prove once and for all that mouse keyboard is superior to controller input on a cross platform supporting FPS shooter yet. The mouse is simple, hard to break and can respond with an amazing amount of precisson with the right setup. Sure Facial recognition and touchscreens may work for public kiosks like say in a library or when your registering for your wedding gifts at macys but will never replace the mouse for First person gameing.
I Need someone to rebuild a Digitech Digital Delay pedal for me....for me...for me...for me.
I believe I speak for everyone who has a clue about computing and the IT industry, as well as for gamers everywhere when I say
BWHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHHAHAHAHAHAAH Yeah right.
I thought spam was supposed to be gone by now, too.
Good luck with that.
Need an automatic screenshot taker? Try here.
From personal experience, I'd suggest that the issue with cleaning is much lower than people here are making it out to be. I've had a laptop with a touchscreen for about 6.5 months. While my keyboard is my primary input device, the touchscreen is used for a majority of pointer based interactions. I have never had to clean my screen. You can sometimes see the fingerprints, but it has never interacted with my ability to view what is on the screen or reading anything. Changing the screen brightness or moving into different lighting often removes even seeing the fingerprints at all. I have also found it is easier to hit buttons on the screen with a touchscreen - having only a single feedback loop you're dealing with and that precision has not been a problem. Using a stylus is also a possibility, though it requires picking up something else, and is nice to have as an option if not often used. While I agree with the rest of the comments that the mouse is not going to go away in 5 years. I don't think the issues with a touchscreen are as much as they're made out to be.
Quite obvious the author has zero CAD experience. Try doing a 2D or 3D drawing without a mouse (where you use the wheel to zoom in and out) and you'll find the definition of aggravation.
Browsing at +1 - no ACs, I ignore their posts. So refreshing!
I have seen the ad for that one touchscreen computer recently released and if I had to reach my arm out for an hour... Even if you use it like a tablet it still can't beat a trackball for minimal amount of movement. And you still have to have a keyboard anyway. At least if you want to type FAST.
Two words: gorilla arm.
Been there, done that. Touchscreens will replace mice when they figure out how to make a conventional vertical screen that you can touch without holding your arm up in front of you. I'm not betting on that happening any time soon.
I don't want my screen to look like oil slick. Also, it's much easier to click on a very small area (think small icons in an IDE on high res screen) with a mouse than it is to touch it on screen (finger surface area is much larger than tip of mouse pointer).
Did you ever notice how enormous the letters and icons are on touch screens in grocery stores? I prefer to use my screen real estate better.
Facial recognition won't work either. When I program I don't want to have to make expressions and grimaces to make an UI gesture.
I think the keyboard works the best and will always work the best.
As the island of our knowledge grows, so does the shore of our ignorance.
Bull pucky!
There have been many studies out there on mouse controls with cameras watching a user's eye movement. Facial recognition in the sense explained in the article did not even seem to hint at this. If something is to take off, this sounds like it would be more likely than touch screen, why move your arm when you could use your eyes to set focus somewhere? Naturally you already do this, it just takes that last little bit of 'hand eye' coordination and throws it out the window. Just need eyes for this one.
I believe all of this will happen long before a computer neural interface is marketed on a large scale.
For all of you haters that will come up with the old, what about if the person is blind. Don't be stupid, if you are blind, you are not using a mouse as that REQUIRES eyes position a mouse. You are likely using screen readers anyways.
As for visual defects such as a lazy eye, it will require training the computer where you look to realize what you are looking at. This is no different than voice commands and accents.
For clicking, could be another gesture such as smiling or something, become inventive, don't try to shut down the prospect of a new technology with your negative attitudes.
On a side note, if clicking is activated by blinking, then all those out there with Tourettes Syndrome and eye twitches, ya'll are SOL =) (I fall into this category sadly)
The mouse isn't going anywhere for a while -- it's cheap, accurate, and everyone already knows how to use it. Touchscreens are great for somethings -- horrible for others. And as for facial recognition -- are they joking? Eyeball or direct neurological interaction sounds more likely, and they're still a while away from becoming mainstream.
Great. It'll take about 17 minutes after conversion before the office clown comes up behind you and yells "Google sex - I'm feeling lucky" at your computer.
Hardware only changes when there is a major shake-ups of software, and with windows still dominating 95% of all desktops; it's not going to change. Your average desktop is fundamentally exactly the same as apple ][.
Even if windows 7 has facial/audio recognition, it will likely turn people off it for good.
The only difference between your desktop now and in 5 years is that your computer will be four times faster, and windows will be four times slower. And halo 6.0 will be out.
Vi style commands are used by wankers. :P
I tested a touch screens interface for usability. many of the female participants complain that their long fingernails (which don't register on the screen) are making things difficult.
I'd love to see more touch screen interfaces but some women computer workers would miss their long fingernails.
Gartners gift for prognostication leaves quite a bit to be desired. In 1997 they declared that the PC would be dead in 5 years in favor of thin client network terminals. This is but one of the many examples of just how wrong Gartner is in almost every case. Gartner bases all of their assumptions on TCO and what they would like to see rather than practicality. In 1997 their conclusions would have been different (and closer to correct) had they talked to anyone working in IT at the time. If you want to excel in IT find out what Gartner predicts will be the new trend and do the opposite, they are the George Castanza of the IT world.
I swear I didn't know it was loaded...
Optical mouse = 10 bucks. Facial recognition + touchscreens = many thousand dollars. So it's one of two options 1)These guys are on crack or 2) it's a buzz campaign for some upcoming gizmo that will be purported as a better input device. Nothing to see here, move on.
Greetings, programs!
Monitors these days are 18, 21 inches in size so I think it would be pretty diffcult to move hands over the monitor trying to press buttons than moving your mouse over relatively small pads.
I'm using a Gyration air mouse from the comfort of my couch, with a compact wireless Gyration keyboard. My wrist rests on the arm of the couch and I have precise control of the cursor. I have never suffered RSI with it, perhaps because I use my thumb for clicking and scrolling. It's far more accurate than a Wiimote and almost as precise as a regular mouse, without needing a surface to operate on, although that is also an option, as it has built-in optical mouse capability.
With the Firefox "mouse gesture" extension, I can also navigate between tabs, reload the current page, and go forward/back in history simply by waving the mouse in the air.
Probably the best computer accessory or upgrade I ever bought.
Touch screen, are you kidding? My TV/Monitor is over five feet away - this thing is so easy and accurate I can highlight a single letter for delete/cut/copy etc. while hardly moving a muscle.
And no, I don't work for the manufacturer, I am just very happy with it.
A couch potato's dream - not that I am one, you understand...
Someone needs to create a futures market based on Gartner reports. I could make millions short selling...
Umm... anybody remember the 3.5" floppy? The amount of storage on that thing had been obsolete for 20 years before computer makers stopped putting them in standard on computers. And it lived long, DESPITE people grumbling about it. I've never, ever heard anybody say "my damn mouse is too slow" or "my mouse is too awkward" or "why can't they make my mouse more user-friendly." Considering the ubiquity of the mouse, and the fact that nobody's complaining about it, I seriously seriously doubt anything will replace it in the foreseeable future.
Gartner announced today that based on it's analysis the wheel is long over due for replacement as there are several small companies experimenting with alternative means of moving small and large loads between different locations. "The wheel has been around for over 10,000 years and we thing it is nearing the end of it's improvement life cycle" said Jack Johnson and senior partner at Gartner. All indications point to the most likely replacement being slave labor. Slaves will carry loads on their backs for low weights and short trips with groups of slaves banding together larger loads and longer trips. As the TCO for slaves is quite low compared to maintaining a modern tractor trailer fleet this new direction will clearly benefit businesses all over the world. Where will all of these new slaves come from? Gartner predicts that Google will provide this new labor from it's current work force...
I swear I didn't know it was loaded...
It's entirely possible for the human arm to become strong enough to use relatively high mounted touch screens for prolonged periods of time. And while I agree that its absolutely stupid to force everyone to go through that transition, I can't help but think about the sheer awesomeness when every crazy geek, now burly-armed from hours upon hours of manipulating funky little symbols on glowing screens emerge from their little caverns.
I can't believe the overwhelming prevalence in this thread of users who are mistaking the current state of technology with future potential. The wikipedia article on computer mice has a few pictures of early mice that are hardly the sleek and ergonomic devices available today.
While 5 years seems far too soon for the mouse to be usurped, I can see touchscreens becoming much more common for computers, especially for laptop users who want one less accessory to carry around. (I personally find the touchpad and nub to be extremely uncomfortable and inaccurate.) DS-style displays could alleviate the 'gorilla arm' problem some here have mentioned. OLEDs could allow for very wide and adjustable fields of interaction that could be easily replaceable. Is even the thought of oil-phobic coatings for the touch screens of the future beyond the imaginations of our tech-savvy community? For shame.
I'm certainly not arguing that a touchscreen or other alternate tracking is a good inclusion for my next computer or the one after that. All I'm saying is that computers have come a long way and it's pure folly to assume with such certainty that our current hardware is approximate to the ultimate evolution of personal computers.
Sure, the Mouse will become extinct. It'll go extinct for every large company CEO and manager with unlimited resources.
As for the real world, that has no relevance to this prediction.
and for the forseeable future will definitely be so.
I can go an entire day without touching the keyboard of my main PC just by relying on my trusty mouse - which is in fact a cheap miniature laptop wheelmouse with retractable cable because I've found they're much easier to use than 'standard sized' mice, less weight to physically move around (thumb & ring finger is all you need) and the very thin lightweight cable doesn't hamper the mouse's movement at all.
Could go wireless for mouse input so there's no cable getting in the way but they're bigger, heavier, need batteries/recharging and the biggest annoyance for me is the lag, they're just not as instant as wired mice.
To do something right, you often have to roll up your sleeves and get busy.
They can pry my mouse from my cold dead hand. It ain't gonna happen.
I love it when people make bold predictions like this. If they get lucky then they can claim that they predicted it and have some proof. I guess that gets them an "in" on think tanks. However if the prediction never comes true, they can just ignore it and no one ever says much, aside from some snickers from some people with good recall. I highly doubt the age of the mouse is coming to an end, though it should. I don't think people will want to be reaching out and touching their screens. It is easier to use a mouse, badly designed as it is. Personally, I haven't used a mouse in years. I use a TRackMan from Logitech. Now THIS is a well designed input device! No pushing it all over your desk, and falling off edges. No carpal tunnel, despite long hours of repeated use. It fits ergonomically under your palm, you move the ball with your thumb, and click/scroll with your fingers. I tried one and never looked back. Try one for a week, I dare you.
Open Source: Eroding the Digital Divide
Give me a break. The mouse has about as much chance of going away as this antiquated thing that goes click click when I hit the keys. Oh wait, I almost forgot. I'm not supposed to be pounding away on keys anymore, [cue voice recognition] was supposed to take over the world, remember? Gee, I've only been waiting about 10 years for that to happen.
Million dollar surveys and overpriced consultants aside, here's what I predict. You can't predict it. Period. Yes, there are NEWER ways of getting input, but there will be no all-knowing, all-seeing input device that caters to EVERYONE. Tout the iPod all you want, but there's a reason it is not the ONLY MP3 player on the market today.
OK, I'll make one prediction. Due to the widespread proliferation of texting instead of talking, next-gen users will have incredible thumb strength. Due to a surge in this use (and 14-year olds obsessing over HD pr0n), one-handed chording keyboards will be the next Google. And the mouse will continue to have its niche.
Mouse? What mouse, I use a teletype terminal all day and like it.
but you get to "touch" the strippers in duke nukem forever, bro. Tell me you'd rather chew bubble gum...
..researchers predict that sitting down while using a PC will be a thing of the past when Wii-like interfaces require people to jump about while working on spreadsheets...
How about a resistive gloop as seen in the Otherland series of books (or alternatively some non-moving gloves) that you put your hands into. The thing would support your hands (so that if you relaxed your hands, they wouldn't move), but would respond to small changes in various pressure sensors.
I'll leave the implementation of this up to a future person.
Ask me about repetitive DNA
If you want it, you can pry it from my dead cold hands!
"Freiheit ist immer auch die Freiheit des Andersdenkenden" - Rosa Luxemburg, 1871 - 1919
I have an idea for a mouse replacement. It's called a "keyboard."
Seriously, it's about time application designers started thinking seriously about the keyboard again. Yes, it takes more time to learn a keyboard-driven application than a mouse-driven one, but once you learn it, the productivity level is much higher. Ask any office typist who was forced to switch from WordPerfect to Microsoft Word a decade or so ago. Taking your hand off the keyboard and clicking the little button (or worse -- navigating through pull down menus) takes more time than hitting a function key, or even a key combination.
Yes, there is limited keyboard navigation now, but tab-tab-tabbing through the onscreen widgets until the one you want is highlighted is not an acceptable substitute for a true keyboard-driven design.
Tired of FB/Google censorship? Visit UNCENSORED!
I'd like to know how a touchscreen can effectively replace a multibutton mouse... unless new touch displays can somehow tell which finger you used to tap the screen with.
File under 'M' for 'Manic ranting'
Mice work, people are familiar with them, and they're cheap.
Web 2.0 == Giant Blogspam Circle Jerk
p.s. - I just tried using the built-in accelerometer in my Dell 24" WFP. It hurt my wrists after a few minutes of twisting and turning. I suppose I should wait 5 years before purchasing a paper-thin OLED Sony Bravia as well...
Architectural Renderings
I switched to a Wacom tablet, the Graphire 4, earlier this year as nearly a last resort (I had started to think about giving up on using computers altogether) due to becoming fed up with years of pain/tension in my neck and shoulder on the side I use the mouse on. After a couple of months, I noticed less tension in my neck, and I can hold the pen in a wider variety of positions than I can hold a mouse. I have not had to go back to the mouse. There is a bit of a learning curve to go from using a mouse to a tablet, most noticeable was the tablet represents the entire screen, and I found at the beginning I was automatically lifting and dropping the pen as I would with the mouse to get more range. The 4x5 tablet doesn't use much desk space either, and it was relatively cheap at $99.
People who are predicting the end of the mouse are simply looking for an exciting story to report on...
Touchscreens won't soon replace the mouse for the same reason that (on my Mac) I avoid using the mouse whenever I can... because keeping my hands on my keyboard makes my life easier. I'm twice as productive with shortcuts.
The purpose of new technologies is NEVER to usurp old ones. It's to fill the purpose of a new market.
And to that end, touch screens will do a wonderful job.
The thing is, technology isn't about a screen, keyboard, and computer... it's about ongoing advances in several different fields to enhance the user experience... (ideally anyway).
To say touchscreens would kill the mouse is a WHOLE lot like saying the iPod will kill the tv... totally different markets!
Sure, sometimes one type of hardware bleeds into another market and steals marketshare... but not often enough to justify these wild expectations.
... I don't see the mouse going away at all, especially for artists and gaming. Even though artists use many tools like Wacom tablets, etc. Every tool has it's own niche and the reason the mouse works so well is because it's easy to use, forgiving in terms of energy expenditure. I think the real issue is with USER interfaces, the next great quantum leap will be in the actual design of the UI. Like how John carmack was talking about how artists could paint a landscape inside a game engine and see the results immediately. Creative programming IMHO will take us a lot further then a new interface method, after all, the physical interface is designed for and around the programs you want to use. For instance the Wii's remote for some games is not all it's crackedup to be and I went and purchased the traditional "Wii classic" (really updated SNES) controller, and I like using it a lot better in many games.
Eye tracking might take off, but like a joystick with sensitivity issues the software will need some tweaking, since your eyes are never perfectly still and I'm not sure if it be as great as they expect, or if will be just another interface tool to add to our toolbox
I use my keyboard for just about everything except for things like ... selecting/moving moving windows ... selecting input elements on the screen ... etc.
I don't think I would actually notice much if I had a camera on my monitor that analyzed my eye movement. If it would work from 6-10 feet away, too, then I could easily drive my PC while standing nearby ... very cool!
I would never use something like this for gaming, tho. I guess it depends on exactly how accurate it is ... I feel like I would still want to use my mouse in a game ...
Actually, with gaming and apps, the bummer is ... a lot of the time I want to look at part of the screen WITHOUT moving my cursor there. This might drive me crazy in a FPS, but ... then again ... maybe they can make it so it works well.
I use my mouse ***WAY*** less than I use my keyboard, so, I could easily see this happening.
Why is it that every fourth article around here has to proclaim the death of some technology in the next few years? When are we going to get over this stage of thinking? I have been hearing about the demise of Windows, floppies, ICEs, broadcast radio, light bulbs and just about every other technology that has been in the mainstream for more than 6 months for years around here. It never seems to happen.
Infact, I know of more working dot matrix printers at my place of employment than articles that have correctly predicted the death of technology!
Dedicated Cthulhu Cultist since 4523 BC.
Isn't that what they said about light pens in the 80's? You kinow.. a pen that touches the screen and records the input? The touch pen would replace the joystick and become the dominant input device? That didn't work out so well, did it?
I can see touch screens getting used in addition to the mouse. Occasionally lifting your arm to poke an icon on the screen seems natural, but using it as a primary GUI navigator seems unlikely. I submit that the only real competitor that the mouse has is the trackball, which is different but just as good. As for facial recognition... I just can't see it taking over. It's a great interface for people who're paralyzed from the neck down, but for the rest of us with adequate function of our limbs... No.
On the up-side though, an expression of alarmed disgust could be used as the signal to close a browser window-- thus the reaction to sites like Goatse also become their solution.
Learning about brewing beer, by brewing beer.
I don't think so. Touchscreens have the unfortunate characteristic of getting smudges and the resistive type tend to make the display a little fuzzy. I have a laptop with a touch screen and I seldom use it although it is nice to have at times. In a similar vein, the Powerglove for the NES was a pain to use for extended periods of time because you had to hold your arm in the air all the time. The Wiimote is only a small refinement on this in terms of the ergonomics (obviously the technical performance is much better). Nobody is going to want to have to wave their hands around to control a computer when they can flick a wrist of finger with a mouse, trackball, pointing stick, or touchpad.
I am becoming gerund, destroyer of verbs.
I think I'll keep my mouse thanks, however gratifying it might be to poke the other players in Crysis with my finger, I think after awhile I would get a callous.
Touchscreens tire out your arm quick. Facial recognition may let me move the pointer with my gaze but what if I don't always want the pointer wherever I'm looking?
Why did this troll get greenlit?
And yet here I am, posting this from my screaming-fast 90ghz powerhouse. Upgrading is for sissies.
Difficult to implement unless some better web design standards come into being. Once you "blink* on a porn site all hell may break loose, or you might get stuck in the same screen location forever. I can see a new kind of eye strain industrial injury developing. Then again, freeing up both hands might be nice...
touch is good but for audio/video edition sometimes a mouse is just better
Live Electronic Music
My first reaction to this story was pretty much what everyone else has said, i.e, it'll never happen. Sure, nobody wants to lean forward and raise their arm to touch their screen when the mouse is right there on the desk. Too much effort, etc. But, what if the screen *is* the desk? Picture a large screen laid almost flat, tilted up a bit, that performs the role of screen, keyboard, and multitouch pointing device? That seems much more plausible, especially when you consider that a well designed multitouch UI could probably alleviate many of the precision problems you would normally get when using your fingertip for pointing. Of course, you'd still need to deal with the fingerprint issue.
I'm all for research into new input devices but I see serious drawbacks to both touch screens and facial recognition. My computer screen gets filthy enough as is. If I eat potato chips or something I don't want further gunk there. The current state of technology also makes it difficult to be a precise as a mouse or track ball. A single point is easier to put where you want than the tip of a finger. One of the major complaints about the Iphone is the difficulty in typing from the screen. As for facial recognition, do you really want a camera pointed at you all the time while you surf the web. This would seem to a Pandora's box of security concerns.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana.
Actually, the analyst is correct. The problem is that his editor screwed up the meaning. What the analyst actually wrote is that "his" (meaning the analyst's) mouse will be replaced in 5 years. I know that mine last about that long before I have to get a new one... (grin)
David
Do these "analysts" actually turn on their brains before making predictions? Do they get paid for this crap? Have they ever actually used a touch screen or an eye tracker for serious work, or are they just living in imagination land?
The mouse may eventually be replaced by such devices, but it won't be during the next 5 years. Touch screens are useless for today's computer setup since they require you to hold your hand in an unnatural position, which is tiring and obscures your screen. Facial recognition doesn't work well enough yet, and requires major relearning. And the Wii Remote is basically a floating mouse, anyways.
That's stupid. Who came up with that conclusion?
I'll tell you. A total fucking idiot.
The only way that can possibly happen in five years
is if the human race is wiped from the face of the earth.
My prediction is that Gartner will continue to take loads of money from fools while offering up stupid predictions. Sadly, a number of CIOs will pay attention because they are totally clueless.
I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
Don't forget that there is a middle ground between a mouse and a touch-screen computer: what FingerWorks used to sell. I have an old iGesture NumPad (I wish I had two more): it sits flat on the desk to the right of my keyboard, about 1 cm tall, 17 x 18 cm wide. Far better than a mouse, without trying to be too much more than a mouse.
Interactive touch-me-there-no-there-screen ! Awesome !
I don't think the mouse is going away, but hopefully the single most cumbersome control device in regular use would slowly be replaced, and that's the gaming controller. I don't know if it'd die within the next five years, but since the Wii doesn't have it (except as an option, and one not frequently supported), but it gives me hope.
I can see it now.. You're playing Halo 11 and another player yells "YOU ARE SUCH A CHEATER! AIMBOT! AIMBOT! ARASHJHFD!"
Calmy, cool, you say "No sir. I use a MOUSE."
But seriously, it's like comparing FPS playing on a console controller to FPS playing with a keyboard and mouse. Equally skilled PC players win. Hands down. Don't fucking argue with me either, cuz I'm right.
I do not respond to cowards. Especially anonymous ones.
without mouse.. how the hell I'm going to play it ?
The author of the summary makes it sound like the mouse is only good for raising windows and clicking form buttons...
While I'm all open for any input device which does not require me to grow a third arm to operate (after all, two hands are already at the keyboard...) there are areas where I doubt that the mouse will go extinct any time soon: technical drawings, generating schematics and routing the according PCBs. Here, I don't see that your average graphics tablet will be of any benefit. Heck, for such even a mousepad is far from truly usable.
Speech recognition? Sure. As if everyone wants to sit like a babbling, stammering idiot in front of his office PC ("open file ... open FILE! ... OPEN! FILE!") -- plus, there must be a reason why even on the Enterprise w/ there seemingly great speech recognition they still use keyboards of some sort.
Touch screens? No way! I don't wanna clean the screen every hour to get rid of the finger prints. Besides, there's this thing called "haptics" which makes people still go for those old IBM keyboards.
A Wii controller or some way of finger/arm/eye tracking? If no specific controller is used but just camera or similar, how does it differentiate between voluntary movements which should result in mouse-pointer moves and what keeps it from moving the mouse if I just rub my nose?
Tell you something: what we need is full keyboard control for applications. Uniform across applications, uniform across window managers -- then for most cases we wouldn't even need another input device apart from the good old keyboard...
It seems to be a bit premature, imagining that the mouse (or the keyboard, for that matter) will go out of fashion anytime soon. To say that there are ways to capture motion more accurately - well, what a surprise, but is that really a major problem for most users? A mouse can easily be navigated to within, say, +/- 5 pixels, which is not far from the precision of our eyes, at least when things move at normal speeds. Sub-millimeter precision or exact conversion of real-world motion to screen-motion is not often essential.
It may be cool to imagine the miracles of future technology, but even in the future the simple practicality and usability will be the most important factor, and I don't see how face-recognition and precise motion sensors are going to make the use of computers in our daily work-lives much more efficient. The problem here isn't the computers, but the humans and the work we do - we don't constantly work at our highest efficiency level; we take breaks, we smalltalk, we waste time being indecisive etc. And the work we do is never simple and clearcut - if it was, it would be done by machines - so when are we actually going to utilise the vastly superior precision or whatever?
On top of that, we have some mature and reliable tecnologies - keyboard and mouse - that do the job well enough, whereas face-recognition and magical wands from Nintendo are new and fairly unproven. Is the ability to interact with the computer via taichi and scowling, attractive though it is, a big enough improvement to make the problems with drivers a minor matter?
I don't see it comming:
- mouse & keyboard are faster to work with
- mouse & keyboard consume less energy
- mouse & keyboard are cheaper to make
- 99.9% of all software is written to be controled with mouse or keyboard
- mouse & keyboard are as accurate as one could wish
(try playing an ego shooter with a wii remote, yuck)
Also try accurately selecting text with a finger, I don't know about you but my finger takes up several characters in width, how would I tell which one the GUI has decided that my gesture has selected?
i use a keyboard with no numeric keypad
so that my right hand is closer to the
mouse and when using the mouse my forearm
is in a more straight orientation (less
stress on the elbow)
i once calculated the number of square
miles of desk space wasted by numeric
keypads on conventional keyboards along
with the number of man years of time
per *day* spent by the human race due
to the additional 0.1 seconds of time
to move the hand across the numeric
keypad in order to get to the mouse.
I forget the numbers, but they are
hilarious
touch screens suck for most point and
click operations due to the amount of
time it takes to move the hand to the
point on the screen - the mouse remains
the best solution for most such activity
especially since typical patterns involve
using the mouse for a moment followed by
a large amount of typing or, using the
mouse almost exclusively with the right
hand while using Control-C, Control-V, etc.
with the left hand
some day, a combination of mouse and voice
recognition might replace typing, more likely
a combination of all three: keyboard, mouse,
and voice
my two cents
Dennis Allard
No chance..
FPS games may be a tad easy without the mouse. booom headshot.. yea i was looking at your head honest..
Why? It pretty much sums up my thoughts on this piece too. The mouse is dying in the same way that BSD is dying - there are an increasing number of alternatives, but they both do their job well and will continue to be used by a lot of people, although probably not the majority.
I am TheRaven on Soylent News
The traditional mouse (and keyboard) aren't going anywhere until a more efficient interface is developed. I'm expecting it to be some sort of direct connection to our brains, but it'll be a century before that's viable...
Most human behaviour can be explained in terms of identity.
Another analyst who wants to be in the headlines, so he can put it on his resume.
Please. Nobody seriously believes this shit. Multitouch and motion sensors will add more input methods, and become standard for some tasks and devices, but anyone saying that the mouse (or the keyboard, for that matter) will disappear within the forseable future is an idiot. Those who aren't idiots know that a replacement has to offer the same features and at least one more, in order to be accepted. A touchscreen doesn't offer the same features as a mouse, it offers a completely different feature-set. As such, it might be used in addition to, but not instead of, a mouse. Case closed.
Assorted stuff I do sometimes: Lemuria.org
The only interaction device that is going to make a mouse/keyboard redundant is a device that interacts directly with the brain. Until then, mouse is going nowhere. How am I going to play Quake for goodness sake?
Why not have AND a mouse AND touchscreen AND a pen that all steer the cursor. That way we can use whatever we like whenever we like and in the best moments. e.g. I use 3 24" screens (1920x1200) and a trackball. There are moments I would love to have a touchscreen. e.g. when I want to go from one side to the other. Then there are moments I would love to have a pen that I can use to draw. Most of the time I am happy with the trackball.
So why not have all of them in the future and more? One does not need to exclude the other. Portables now often have two pointing devices connected at the same time and sometimes 3. The touchpad and a normal mouse are pretty common so I see no reason why the rise of one would mean the death of the other. Instead I see the different devices compleating each other.
Don't fight for your country, if your country does not fight for you.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HP-150
Circa 1983. Working with a touch-screen it has to be laid flat on a table, can you imagine holding your hand up in the air for a few hours? Besides, even touch-pad is not that smooth, a tablet with a pen-like device make more sense.
1.they are cheaper(price is biggest barrier to new tech)
2.they require less effort/distance to move(every movement is multiplied x1000 daily)
3.Mice is precise to the the pixel.To achieve the same precision you need a 2000$ Cintiq Wacom,nice motor skills and a pen.
It would be like keyboard vs manual writing.Mouse accelerates visual interaction,keyboard accelerates text interaction.Touchscreens are 1:1 interface which actually decreases your efficiency:
This is akin to creating a 1:1 map vs 1:10 map which mouse provides.
So before we get decent neural implants or something similar the mice will live.
1. Well, just to complement what you said, it wouldn't bother me as much if they at least tried to come up with something new. It's like the same bad ideas pop up again and again and again. Just when you thought you finally buried one stupidity at crossroads, with a stake through its chest, some new clueless guy stumbles by and imagines that surely he's the first one to come up with it. He sees that nobody does that already, and imagines that surely he's such a genius that nobody else thought of it before.
In this case, sure, there probably is still some better ways to input x/y coordinates, that has yet to be discovered. (Sorry, while some things are better strictly for inputting x/y, none yet match the mouse for the combination of not just input, but also ease of use, comfort for extended times, having _both_ accuracy and speed, ease of switching between keys and mouse, etc.) But I don't see many people even trying. Nah, they come up _again_ with "I know, let's make a touch screen!"
I remember that idea as early as the 90's, but I wouldn't be surprised if it came even earlier. It just doesn't work, and it's already known why. But, nah, it just has to come back again.
2. The Wiimote fails in a whole other aspect, in addition to what you pointed out: switching quickly between keyboard and mouse, which is one thing people do need for work. You're not going to hold it in your hand the whole time, like when playing a Wii game. You also need both hands to type.
With a mouse you pretty much just slide the hand to it and start moving it already.
With a Wiimote, you'd have to actually pick it up first, which is a much slower operation. Try it.
Plus, you can't have it tracking movement all the time, because otherwise the act of picking it up will also be tracked as a movement of the cursor. So you'd probably have to (find and) press one of the buttons first, to have it start tracking. You'd presumably have to keep it pressed while you move it, because otherwise you'll leave it on and have an inconvenience the next time you pick it up.
Or maybe it would only count when it's pointed at the screen. Well, then you don't need an extra button, but the act of picking it up and pointing it at the screen just became longer and more inconvenient.
It's just not a substitute for a mouse. Well, ok, maybe for games it is, but not for work. I just don't see the mouse dying and being replaced by a Wiimote, on the millions of business computers around the world.
A polar bear is a cartesian bear after a coordinate transform.
The economy of motion of the mouse is going to be hard to beat. You can go anywhere on the screen by moving it less than an inch. It quickly becomes not just an extension of your body, but an extension of your mind. That's going to be incredibly hard to beat.
What will be interesting in UI development is to see what kinds of technologies can improve efficiency as additions to the mouse. Just as mouse+keyboard is more effective than mouse alone, are there interface methods that could add to mouse+keyboard to make the combination even more efficient? I have a hard time seeing how touchscreens or motion control would do that, but it's conceivable they could for certain uses. A touchscreen could be just the thing for photo editing, or video editing, if implemented properly.
You put your compass on it. You used set squares on it. You used rulers to draw on it, placing the rule on the paper.
So a replacement would have to be able to take a compass drawing on it. It should be rough enough to hold a set square or ruler while you place it with one hand, but smooth enough to move if you're off slightly.
Current replacements using touchpads have the user typing in the coordinates/values after roughing them in with the inaccurate touchpad. If you didn't have a keyboard, how would you add these numbers in? If you didn't have a mouse, how big would the dialog boxes be for you to be able to select them quickly?
Yeah, Bash and Lynx rule!
s/am/rael/
Thankyou for playing.
Two words: "Gorilla arm."
If you actually knew why trackpoints were used so widely (even exclusively for a long time after) on IBM laptops you you realize you're only rationalizing excuses for why trackpoints have been disappearing.
Unlike trackpoints, using a touchpad requires a certain degree of sensitivity feedback that makes them impossible to use (or nearly so) if you have a prosthetic hand. Back when IBM introduced the trackpoint the guy (executive, vice-president, something like that) in charge of the laptop division happened to be a veteran who had lost both his hands in the vietnam war. He handed (sorry, unintentional bad pun) down an edict that IBM laptops would *only* be allowed to have input devices usable by folks with his particular disability. And that's why IBM laptops offered only trackpoints for a long time after most other manufacturers shifted to the less-expensive touchpads.
That original, fundamental fault in touchpads hasn't been fixed; it's only that fewer manufacturers care about subtleties such as supporting disabled users.
I am about to put a new 12AX7 valve into a new guitar FX pedal. Who would have predicted that valve technology would still be here - albeit in a more specialised application.
Maybe that's the clue - all technologies will be available for those who need them. Voice input works well for certain people. I sold VoiceType to legal folks, whose time was precious; I sold it to histologists, cardiologists and pathologists who wanted to input data into a computer without touching - in the case of the histologists whilst staring down a microscope. However I wouldn't use voice input in the office!
I used to use a light pen, before mice were commonplace, for inputting schematics into an electronic design system. I still have one here somewhere! I imagine that there are still some computer users - Air Traffic Control people, some CAD/CAE users who still wouldn't live without one.
Anyone ever had that thing where they're driving very fast and had an urge to turn the wheel alllll the way to the right/left?
Maybe "think it = do it" isn't such a great idea for UI design. Particularly not if it makes it outside to the real world.
If there were one device I'd rather rely on less it would be the keyboard, not the mouse. Sure, the keyboard is perfect when I'm at work but when I'm sat at home on the laptop browsing the net I'd rather just use the mouse as far as possible.
We already know that there is technology in use by the advertising and opinion industries that tracks which spot on a computer screen a user is looking at and for how long. It must be one or multiple cameras which relate your eyeball location to specific points on a screen. I don't know how sophisticated the hardware has to be and how much the viewers position relative to the screen matters, but it would seem to me that this sort of technology along with voice activation or something would be a much more natural, less strenuous way to interact with a screen.
Touch screens sound nice and all, but (as others have mentioned here) I don't know about having my arm up all day touching a screen. At least with a mouse you can rest your wrist on something and if you have things set up ergonomically then you can use the mouse for many hours without it really getting to you. For phones and small devices they're perfect, but for laptops, desktops, and very large screens they just aren't practical.
Seriously, the Gorilla Arm syndrom always kills any touchscreen technology stone dead for extensive use (I was first told this on an IT course in 1986 and it's still true, despite several attempts to popularize them since), but I really don't understand why we persist in using Mice for general use over Trackerballs.
A good tracker (logitech or microsoft high end ones) are just as accurate as mice, considerably less tiring as you're not moving your arm around all day, take up less desk space an for the truly geeky have more room available for extra buttons (because you don't have to push all the weight around). RSI is much less a risk with trackers, especially the ones configured so the primary mouse button is under the thumb - with consequently more muscle and more robust tendons - than the index finger.
I'll still be playing Quakeworld with my trusty mouse, I have no doubts!
And you will find this caveat - "The mouse works fine in the desktop environment but for home entertainment or working on a notebook it's over," declared analyst Steve Prentice." http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/technology/7508842.stm So it's not quite as daft as it originally sounds, although I still disagree. Like many here I LIKE mice, I like the fact that I can adjust the speed/acceleration of my mouse pointer, can't do that with touchscreens and arms! And I HATE people touching my screen!
I CAN DANCE ALL DAY! I CAN DANCE ALL DAY!! BOOM HEADSHOT!! Seriously, I will pwn anyone who uses a "touchscreen" to play a FPS game, while I am using a mouse. :)
If someone had bothered to say a pad-free stylus, I might agree, but apart from Flypaper & pen from HP, I'm not seeing it happen. A computer mouse is cheap, it has an effective paradigm (move the shiny bar of soap, the pointer moves accordingly), and it no longer has moving parts or even surface requirements. Well, technically, it will not work in most Starwood Hotels due to their affection for glass-topped black tables, but hey, go Hilton, right?
If we are going to analyze this properly, Gartner, we need to review some old-school terms, like data gloves, virtual reality, and motion capture. Dust off your zooba pants and try to remember. Main issues: weight and balance, response speed, range of motion, precision and control, and aesthetic and ergonomics. The Wii Motion Plus is a superb example of virtual swords, baseball bats, tire irons, 9-irons, and tennis rackets. Only Zorro himself would be at home using a virtual sword to create a painting, Visio diagram, or click through EULAs. The rest of us need a surface. The trouble is, our fingers are not clean, and our monitors transmit light. Any goo, gunk, phlegm, oil, or food residue is going to get in the way of photons. Every stroke of the screen is going to leave a "snail trail" for the effort. Now, if we went back to the old "light pen" technology (whoo hoo! and modem couplers!) and had another go, we might be getting somewhere, at least. The trouble is, the stylus tip is going to grind off any coatings over time.
Gartner, you are outside your safe zone, get back in the right quadrant!
People said the keyboard was heading for extinction at one point. I don't buy it.
The mouse is still quite effective, and easy to use. Other pointers may pop up, and that's great if they serve a new purpose. But the mouse doesn't have much inefficiency to speak of. It's a natural feeling device, and I personally think that it's got a great many years ahead of it.
"The computer mouse is set to die out in the next five years and will be usurped..." Because these jokers say so, doesn't mean it will actually happen. The human mind is a source of major unpredictability. If there was one set way of gauging the market's reaction (human factor here) to any given product, we'd all have purchased that winning solution and applied it. And that includes Xerox which would not have led them to give away the current system of interacting with a computer (Mouse and Windows Manager) to Apple for a 6 pack of Coors.
Steer the cursor with my tongue? I'd rather leave that for when I'm paraplegic.
How good would a USB Ouija Board do as an input device?
... the death of "X technology will die in 5 years" within the next 5 years.
I hadn't known there were so many idiots in the world until I started using the Internet -Stanislaw Lem
Idiot: "The computer mouse will be extinct with a few years."
Computer user: "But the mouse is ubiquitous, it very easy to use, is cheap, and it simply works.
Idiot: "You'll use touch screens."
Computer user: "My new monitor does not act as a touch screen."
Idiot: "Well, the monitor as you know it will also become extinct."
Computer user: "Fine, let's say I choose to replace my 20 dollar mouse with a 300 dollar touch screen monitor, but why would I want to constantly reach up and touch the screen when I can simply use my mouse to control the cursor while comfortably resting my hand on the desk?"
Idiot: "You don't understand, there will be a whole new paradigm for monitors. They'll be built into surfaces like the top of desks."
Computer user: "So what you're saying is that the computer desk, as we know it, will also become extinct?"
Idiot: "Oh certainly, you're catching on."
Computer User: "Let me get this straight, you want me to replace my current monitor and my computer desk, for a desk with a built-in monitor, probably costing about one grand, which will need to be replaced about every four years, the average life span for a monitor, because for some bizarre reason you think my 20 dollar mouse is too hard to use?"
Idiot: "Yeah, isn't this exciting?!"
Computer user: Sound of gun being loaded, sound of gun fire, sound of idiot dropping dead. End scene.
If someone says he and his monkey have nothing to hide, they almost certainly do.
If they were talking about a second smaller touchscreen monitor I could see this being popular, especially if its highly customizable with what different areas of the screen are set to do. have it on a slight angle about where i usually have my mouse. I could see that being something to replace a mouse. Using my main monitor as an input device... not so much. Not a big fan of holding my arm in front of me and I am a fan of my monitor being in front of me so laying it down not an option.
A better advice is dont take Gartner seriously
Have you ever seen their real reports, and assumptions; its paperwork blablabla.
Its not reality based and neither they perform good research on markets.
I dont understand why people still take them seriously.
But if you can pay their reports, as a manager/director you can have your own words be backed up by huge paperloads. It doenst say anything about a usefull truth. For example did we ever care about the mouse ?, and do you realy think that most of us would like finger prints on their screens.
The mouse will stay at desktop computers, until we wont use desktop computers anymore ... you can mark my words, for this FREE marketing info.
Now, imagine this, you have a face scanner, you navigate to your previous one-handed sites. The inevitable happens, your face contorts, and you are taken to a page that says, "oh, uh, does that normally happen? wasn't that kind of fast?"
And damn it, what about people who've had their face frozen by botox?
Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong fix.
There's absolutely nothing wrong with not having a head full of useless celebrity trivia.
I had to look it up, and I'm not ashamed.
http://www.engadget.com/2006/03/31/naomi-campbell-in-court-for-chucking-another-phone-at-maid/
"When information is power, privacy is freedom" - Jah-Wren Ryel
No way am I going to use a touch screen: the damned thing gets gunged up enough already. And no one will convince me holding my hand out at arms length (or beneath a table, upside down) is going to be more comfortable than a wrist-supported mouse. Or that a touch screen will support four (4) (IV) different click and scrolling devices.
And show me "facial recognition" that will let me spin my WoW character while I look at different parts of the screen.
Nossir, don't want it, won't have it.
Good news - if it were true!
Ever since WfW came out, I hated to switch from fast keyboard handling to slow search&click using the mouse - about that time, they switched the keyboard layout from ergonomically to awkward -
I could reach any F-key with any modifier (Shift,Ctrl,Alt) single handed!
Counter argument: 3.5" Floppy Disk
Uhhhhhhh what about software developers? I, for example, REFUSE to use those wireless, infrared piece of crap mouse things. There is ZERO control over placing objects on screens. Ever try designing an interface in Access or Visual Basic, Powerbuilder or any GUI development environment with one of those crappy infrareds? You cant. That is why I purchased about 20 wired, MS intellimouse PS/2 versions because I dont ever want to be having to use the garbage mice they have out there today. Screwed up shapes and sizes and wireless - WHY does everything have to be wireless. Its UNRELIABLE and its for the lazy. Real men and developers use wires and configure things.
The beauty of mouse//keyboard is that the fact that it requires a surface to be moved/placed on gives us takes less energy to operate since we rest our arms on the table or chair or whatever.
I love my Wii but all that juking and jiving can be annoying, unnecessary, and tiring. Unless the pc can read my mind or follow eye movement, me and my mouse have alot more clicking to do.
Sincerely,
Happily Lazy American
(If I wanted a workout at work, I wouldn't have so many cubicle binding letters after my name)
Cost/benefit of a mouse is too high. Please show me a touch screen LCD that costs $10.
Trackpads, trackballs, and touchscreens have been around for years. If they were going to replace the mouse, they would have done so already. The only time when one of these devices replaces a mouse is when a mouse is inconvenient, such as portable devices. So we'll see a lot more touchscreens, but they'll be on tablets and cell phones, not desktops. We'll also see touchscreens on things like data desks, but these are special purpose configurations--a horizontal screen simply isn't that attractive for people who spend most of their time keyboarding. Those people are going to want a screen that stands up to face them--and they aren't going to want to hold their hand up in the air several hours a day to do everything on a touchscreen. I expect that eventually all computer monitors will have touch capability--but there will still be a mouse on the desk.
Yup.
Probably owns a touch screen company.
We'll be using DarkMatter screens anyways when the rare earth compounds are used up by 2017.
How about some device that you wear on the end of your finger (Just past your finger nail going down to your second joint). It would have to be wireless or blue tooth so there are no wires. Then you can use any surface. There would have to be proximity receiver. The advantage would be you wouldn't even have to "set it down" to type, it would be flexible, maybe have two small buttons on the side closest to your thumb. Another idea would be the possibility of using one on each hand with different functions.
Just an idea.
--- If the bible proves the existence of God, then Superman comics prove the existence of Superman.
I would never want to use a touch screen for anything except public kiosks (though public kiosks are disease vectors already). A touch screen should come with a supply of Windex for the impenetrable layer of fingerprints that is going to blotch the screen, plus every time you use the screen you are blocking your view. The primary use of the screen is to be able to see what it is displaying, yes? There is also the issue (as you noted) that putting the screen in a comfortable viewing position makes it poor for pressing. You have to reach out (and maybe up also) and extend to contact it. Repeat that hundreds of times a day and you're going to be in physical therapy with shoulder problems. At least with a mouse I can use it with my arm relaxed and supported.
It is by the juice of the coffee bean that thoughts acquire speed, the teeth acquire stains. The stains become a warning
This story is just someone trying to make a story out of nothing.. Probably to get their name on the internet. The fact is you already dont need a mouse to surf the internet. And its highly doubtfull that the gamers out there will toss away their mouse so they can press on the screen to point and shoot. Think before you post..
. . . screen touches you!
wanna talk about hype? they may come available but replace? no. did the mini replace the mainframe? did the micro replace the mini? did palms replace the laptop? did the phone......
Everyone has great points..
Touchscreens for a desktop suck but are great for the PDA crowd.. Laptops not so much..
A Wiimote type control is great for a presentation or moving through a DVD menu but would kill your arms over a long time. Also if you want to type you will have to put the stupid thing down moving your cursor god knows where.. I'd spend half my time finding it again..
So ya ou know what I want? I want them all with some extras..
I want a mouse I can pick up and use as a pointer. or even 2 of them so I can do multipoint control.
I want a wireless keyboard with a touchpad or stick control (may already exist) so if I choose to work on the 60" plasma from the couch I don't have to keep reaching out to move a mouse on the table or whatever book I found to use as a mouse pad.
I want a wireless LCD monitor I can pop off the stand and use like a tablet PC with a touch screen and pointing stick.. Viewsonic had something close but it was really just a thin client for remote desktop.
This would tie into using your HD TV as a giant monitor.. Just plug a wireless monitor module into your entertainment center.. No need keep the PC in the living room.
Now imagine that dual screen setup.. You on the couch with the 24" touchscreen LCD and then drag items from the desktop off onto the 60" on the wall. Grab the 2 pointing sticks off the LCD and use them Wiimote style on the big screen.
If you think it's expensive to hire a professional to do the job, wait until you hire an amateur. --Red Adair
Not really...
It's to create a worldwide facial database to spy on you
"With the Wii you point and shake and it vibrates" Yeah, I have the same relationship with my wii too.
And this is why the world "analyst" is losing credibility. Of course, after reading the article I see that it was the perpetually clueless Gartner again.
Build a better mouse, and the world will beat a path to your doorstep.
The Navy was fairly big on this for a while. Instead of a normal desk, you had piece of plate glass forming the desktop surface where your monitor would normally go. The monitor was then placed on a special shelf under the desk at an angle. I guess the arrangement was meant to save space, but in practice, it sucked hard. For one thing, the monitor/shelf assembly under the desk made it tough to stretch out your legs. Also, any blank space on my desk tends to get stuff set on it, which meant I was constantly having to excavate to find my monitor. And last, but probably most - it was an ergonomic nightmare. You had to constantly have your head pointed down, which got painful very quickly. It's one of those things that probably sounded like a good idea at the time, but never worked in real life.
Sean
Dear Aunt, let's set so double the killer delete select all.
---- "XML is like violence. If it doesn't fix the problem, you aren't using enough."
I personally think that no one will be touching anything in the real future of computer human interaction. I'm pretty sure touch and facial movement recognition will simply be transitional methods and that direct brain computer interaction will be the real future of computer interaction. Device like that new brain wave game controller will probably be fine grained enough to be replace manual controls within a decade or so.
Until then, the mouse and keyboard will probably soldier on for standard interaction, since touch screens require a different GUI paradigm to be truly useful, and while mobile devices like the iPhone are well on their way there, it will be a while yet until that moves to day to day computing.
Not to be crass, but not one technology which has been predicted in the last 30 years to be "gone in 20 years" has been gone in 20 years.
AM Radio's still here, the transistor is stronger than ever, dial-up internet is still the only option for many Americans (north, south, and central), and a majority of the people in the US still own CRTs, mercury thermometers, and gas-burning cars.
Technology doesn't die, it just gets smoother plastic and shinier stickers.
The land shall stone them with the bread of his son.
The ubiquitous mouse (and touchpads and wheels) will be around or a very long time. It takes a long time or people to use and get used to new technology. I've long been a proponent of eyeglass-type of displays, especially for the workplace as a clerk with a pair of VGA eyeglasses could do his/her work with good posture reducing back strain, et. al. (Here is a link to Thad Starner's website http://www.cc.gatech.edu/~thad/). In general, when people are comortable with something they resist change. While some of us techies might love this stuf, most people will resist using it, period. I'd love to be able to be able to move the mouse by means other than removing my hand rom the keyboard. So, I welcome the changes, but it will emerge very slowly.
You're not getting my mouse. I've used touch-screens. They suck. They've sucked for years. They will continue to suck for years. A mouse costs five bucks. A touch screen costs hundreds of dollars. If I break my mouse, I throw it away and get a new one. If I break my touch screen, I throw it away...and wait until I can afford a new one.
It's gonna be voice recognition that's gonna kill off the mouse. Really. Any day now.
Read the EFF's Fair Use FAQ
[quote]told the BBC that devices such as Nintendo's MotionPlus for the Wii and Apple's iPhone point the way to the future[/quote]
Yeah, right.. The two (mobile phone and game console) never even had a mouse..
Can't believe some people believe this stuff. If it's on the Internet, it has to be true!!
Ever try to drag and drop on a touch screen. You feel like you have to rub your finger off just to move something from one end to the screen to another.
Now I know there are some iPhone users out their who are like "It doesn't bother me", but you have to consider that is a 4 inch screen. Try doing that with a 10 inch screen. You will want something with less friction to do drag something from one corner of the screen to the other.
Secondly, with the introduction of large touch screen like Microsoft's Table Project, you better have a bottle of Windex handy to wipe up the smudges that would constantly be on the screen.
The future for interfaces would be to NOT touch the screen (hover the fingers just above it like a TV meteorologist does with a green screen) or to be more like a wipeboard.
I personally would like to see a Wacom with a ball-point tip like an inkpen. If only their was a way to adjust the friction of the surface you are trying to write on. Now that would be an achievement.
The Rapture is NOT an exit strategy.
Is that going to be right after we finally achieve a paperless society, or right after? And when do I get my flying car?
Cut that out, or I will ship you to Norilsk in a box.
The touch screen idea in the traditional sense I don't see ever replacing the current mouse, for the already stated obvious reasons. A finger based mouse replacement is not so far off the mark though.
A mouse that could be moved around accurately under the tip of a finger over a mouse pad would offer two huge advantages over the current mouse; it would be less strenuous, as it would not require you to use your whole arm, and more precise, as you would be working with a smaller surface. The touchscreen monitor might be a horrible idea for a mouse replacement, but a "touchmouse" might not.
Because I laughed when I read the summary.
Charisma is the measure of someone's ability to lie with a straight face.
I agree whole-heartedly. I predict that we, as an industry, will move on, and these articles will die off within 5 years.
sr
His ignorance covered the whole earth like a blanket, and there was hardly a hole in it anywhere. - Mark Twain
This is like the predictions from last year that 3D virtual reality was going to reshape the internet, and we'd be doing all our online shopping in 3D. It only took me about two minutes of dragging my avatar, Ms. JaneDoe Fonda, through a virtual shopping center to realize how cumbersome and inefficient this was. And did anyone find any use for those rotating cubes that everybody was so mad for about a year ago? I'm thinking "no". Now trace your finger diagonally across the screen once. Just once ought to do it. Notice how unnatural that feels comparared to the economy of motion the mouse facilitates. Just a little wrist action can span the screen. Plus you have more freedom of movement in relation to the screen. You don't have to be sitting so close. Somebody wants somebody to invest in touch screens, so they hire analysts (named for where they keep their heads?) to back up their sales pitch. I'm seeing videos of touch screen demos of Windows 7 (Vista 2?) on You Tube. I'm guessing that as long as I'm willing to buy a mouse, someone will be willing to sell me one.
Actually i'd like a mouse-less mouse. Something that detects finger positions in some area but doesn't need the mouse itself to do it.
Just run your fingers over the table or some area, tap them/etc to press buttons.
But something that doesn't need a touch pad/surface/bukly stuff. e.g. a little ultra-sonic sensor hanging off the right edge of your laptop/screen.
I want him to die slooooow!
I stand by what I say, If you are that foolish to buy an iPhone and believe that the mouse will be phased out by touch screens, you must be a silly fool with condoms on your fingers. (Honestly, why would anyone sell this crap to people?)
The mouse stays. Now take those rubbers off your fingers before the Trojan Man kicks your ass.
The Rapture is NOT an exit strategy.
Newsflash: devices that never used a mouse and are extremely inconvenient to use a mouse with won't have mice added to their input capabilities. Oops, better throw away that mouse that I carry around to operate my iPhone, PDAs, and other portable devices with...
OTOH I just can't see mice and/or trackpads going away for desktops as touchscreens are just not at all convenient for desktops and notebooks, which are setup for more traditional types of input, although one thing that might be handy are tablets with virtual keyboard/mouse modes rather than the bulky twist-LCDs that many currently use (twist around and lower the touchscreen LCD to cover keyboard/trackpad in "regular" "tablet" mode...). i.e. it'd be much handier to have a smaller device that has some sort of stand allowing it to be propped up in a page display or widescreen mode that could project a virtual keyboard/trackpad area on some table surface than the bulky addition of an actual keyboard/trackpad arrangement found in notebooks... Probably be nice if notebooks just all came that way in the future, and maybe even desktops, although that sort of support would have to be supported through the display device as it would be the only item likely guaranteed to be on the tabletop/convenient viewing/use location.
I detest touch screens. I have one on my phone and use the stylus all the time. If someone presses a greasy finger on my computer monitor I am really upset! Long live the mouse, especially wireless ones.
Pro Coffee Drinker
Pity this article on the Neural Impulse Actuator was one day late.
there is no god but truth, and reality is its prophet
That's going make it tough to play FPS games... I guess if they come up with a head-band to move around with might work. Hum, not a bad idea! Maybe I should patent one right now...
Facial Expressions to control people? Does this mean that I will point at spots on my computer by glaring at them? Will angry or distressed facial expressions cancel dialog boxes? Will inquisitive or happy expressions answer dialogs positively? Will dismissive glances close windows?
And most importantly of all, will this be a disability for people with damage that relates to the expression of emotions? What use are computers for expression by autistic people if they can't use the computer.