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Merrill Lynch Predicts $200 Wii
Burlap writes "In a story at Forbes, Merrill Lynch predicts that Nintendo will severely undercut the competition with a $200 price point on the Wii." From the article: "An executive from SEGA, one of Nintendo's largest publishers, told Forbes.com on Tuesday that he expects the Wii to sell for less than $200. Post said the Nintendo machine, which features a wireless controller that responds to players' body movements, 'will appeal to a broad demographic of both hard-core and casual gamers.'"
If i had a nickel for every time an analyst made a prediction that turned out to be incorrect, I'd have the $200 necessary to buy the Wii!
Every dollar they price this below $250 increases the likelihood of me buying it by roughly 1%. =)
That's a Wii price. A small hit to the pot-o-gold.
Microsoft and Sony have given Nintendo some wiggle room on price here, so I think $199 will be the minimum price for the console through the end of the launch year. I wouldn't be surprised to see it go for as much as $299 at launch, or even $350 if it comes with a strong bundle.
Arguing about vi versus Emacs is like arguing whether it's better to make fire by rubbing sticks or banging rocks.
I disagree with Merril Lynch analysis on this, Nintendo has always had a profit on all the consoles they've sold. To compete with the others, I expect around a $300 retail price around Thanksgiving, which will be dropped around President's Day or Memorial Day to somewhere around $250.
-- Tigger warning: This post may contain tiggers! --
http://games.slashdot.org/comments.pl?sid=185919&c id=15344390
I already extrapolated exactly this prediction from the data given in a previous article. The evidence I drew this conclusion from was the posted statistics in TFA of the previous note (the article is available here if you don't want to follow too many links).
How to use coral cache: http://slashdot.org.nyud.net:8090/~oscartheduck
Is there a constructive reason for such prediction? Will Merrill Lynch get a prize or something if the prediction is correct?
We already have Google popping up in every 3rd article, now we have Wii.
Please stop entering code 2,2,7,6,6,4
Aren't these the same people the predicted an $800 price point for PS3, and a $500 price point for PSP? BIAS MUCH?
Merrill Lynch now owes you a dollar!
Anyone remember Merril Lynch's $900 ps3?
linky
The NES had a launch price of $200, the SNES had a launch price of $200, the N64 had a launch price of $200, the GameCube had a launch price of $200.
Nintendo has had launch prices of $200 for 20 years now, you have to be pretty fucking impressive to even have the nerve to utter that they could launch a console for an unheard-of-before price of $200
Well, at least that time Merrill Lynch may be spot on.
"The way we can tell it's C# instead of Haskell is because it's nine lines instead of two." -- wadler
I am planning on buying at least two of these. One for the family and another for the local children's hospital. I think this controller will really help in physical therapy dept. with the rehabilitation of children. If they offer games that appeal to older adults it could also be a Xmas gift for the grandparents/nursing home too! The boomer generation is the largest growing market and as of yet has been untapped. I think the people at Nintendo deserve a raise for this revolutionary product (pun intended)!
Console itself will be $200 isnt too far stretched, just still don't expect to get out the door without spending upwards of $200 MORE on games and accessories.
The raw console will be $200 with your standard one controller, but you'll not have everything you want for far more.
This article was written last week. I still believe that Nintendo was all but ready to throw out the $200 figure until Sony announced their price at E3 (Nintendo was quoted as being quite surprised that Sony chose to announce their price so early, and everyone else was shocked at the number). Now Nintendo is going back to discuss the possibility of a $250-$300 price point. After all, their whole model is the appearance of affordability for casual gamers, and $250 is still LESS THAN HALF of a PS3 and considerable cheaper than a 360.
If it turns out to be above $250, I sure hope they include an extra controller and perhaps some sample games to show off functionality (Wii Sports, for example, seems fun but doesn't strike me as a game I would pay $50 for)
NES: $200 SNES: $200 N64: $200 GC: $200 Wii: Pric... Er, $200
So say they sold it for $50... Would you then buy an extra for me? :)
considering nintendo has NEVER released a home console for anything different, i think it is obvious.
NES - 199
SNES -199
N64 - 199
gamecube -199
therefore Wii -199
The war with islam is a war on the beast
The war on terror is a war for peace
Look at what nintendo did with the name wii itself: a new, original (and many would say bad) name for a console.. so they released it well before E3 and let gamers blow off steam about it in advance so it didn't blot out their showing at the event itself with controversy. Hell, I think that's why Sony released its price figures early, so gamers would have time to get used to the idea of having to blow 700 bucks on a console. With good news on the other hand, its to their advantage to release the price info as late in the year as possible, so as to maximize the "wow, wii is friggin cheap!!" glow that will drive gamers into the stores and wiis off the shelf. So my predicition is that the price will be released late in the game, right before when the system is going to be released, and that it will be on the low end of the price ranges we're all quoting here.
Hey Bill, not everyone can swindle their way to the top like you. Look out for the DOJ!
Perrin Kaplan pretty much said that the price alone will have people lining up to get it. I predict $149, and if I'm right that means I beat the shit out of all industry analysts with my m4d 4n4lyz1ng ski11z. ...I bet I'll get modded down for pwning Merrill Lynch. :(
Take that, suckas!
Also, it's noteworthy that if I'm right, you have at LEAST a 101% chance of buying a Wii.
Just playing what if with the fanboys...
."
;) It probably will only cost $300.
What if...
The Wii price is: $600 bucks! (no wonder why it hasnt been revealed!)
-suddenly!
Nintendo Fanboys statements (after being resurrected via CPR):
"The PS3 price is not that bad after all, it is a good price
"$600, well a blu ray player costs $900"
"Is not that a big difference I mean the 360 was $500 on release"
"They are doing it to prevent shortages"
"Is worth every penny I mean you can play 20 years of nintendo games on it"
"The Wii controller alone is worth that price"
"Uh.. got $400 to spare? do you know if they still buy human hair at the wig factory?"
Just kidding guys
Go ahead MOD my day!
More opinions here
just still don't expect to get out the door without spending upwards of $200 MORE on games and accessories.
Provided you already have broadband and the 802.11b router that you bought for your DS, one bundled controller is enough to play Virtual Console games, especially if you're upgrading from a GameCube and its controllers still work in Wii mode.
Did anyone else notice Forbes' E3 sidebar on the article? It has a squinting, obese red-headed stepchild playing a GameCube. Talk about combining negative gamer stereotypes... I get the feeling that Forbes really has no clue about the current game market. Or perhaps they feel their audience has no clue.
I yearn for you tragically. A. T. Tappman, Chaplain, U.S. Army.
The article doesn't say that Merril Lynch itself made that prediction, though it certainly implies it. From the fine article: "Merrill Lynch analyst Justin Post predicted Thursday that the new machine, which will be released this fall, will sell for $200."
The previous report on a supposed $900 price tag for the PS3 was authored by a number of analysts at Merrill Lynch, including Justin Post. This article makes no mention of a report or any other analysts, it just quotes Justin. Suspicious, no?
- None can love freedom heartily, but good men; the rest love not freedom, but license. -- John Milton
By the time you add the nuchucku attachment and the super mario game, you're probably looking at a good $300 - $320
Considering that every single Nintendo console has launched at $200, he's probably not that far off. I would be very surprised if the launch price wasn't $200.
"I'm not religious, but at the same time I don't get why science always has to have something to prove."
$200 got you not only the Nintendo system but 2 controllers, 2 games (Super Mario Bros. and Duck Hunt) and the zapper.
N64 was $250 at launch, not $200. :P
By reading this you acknowledge that you have read it.
Actual quote from Perrin Kaplan: "Let me just say the Wii console will be a price that you will all really like and it will cause you to line up to want to buy it"
Sounds like it'll be below the $200 mark, anyway.
What capabilities does the Wii command that are unachievable on the GameCube today? I think nintendo is just releasing the obligatory new platform as a method to increase saturation of it's 'wiimote' controller. They should have just bundled the controller with whatever handful of games they plan to have it work with and called it a day. Consider:
Wii is hardly more powerful than gamecube. GC 1.5 indeed. Partial Wii Specs vs. GC Specs>
They are releasing AAA GC titles simultaneously with Wii anyway.
Wii has 4 GC controller ports and will accept GC discs as well as Wii ones.
What we really have here, just like GBA SP and DS Lite, is the GC Wii, with a pack-in wand controller and ethernet port.
Nintendo has always released their consoles at $199 (with the exception of the very early release of the NES, which was later repackaged). They have lost a lot of market share, and selling the Wii at $199 will be a no brainer for almost any gamer to pick up. This article goes through the brief history of Nintendo consoles: http://ibloggedthis.com/2006/05/12/a-brief-history -of-nintendo-consoles-and-why-nintendo-wii-should- be-199/
Also, as a parent, would you want to spend nearly $600 or $200? It's a very smart move, they would be stupid to sell it for more.
As long as Moore's Law significantly outpaces inflation, you should see the cost of most consumer electronics continue to decrease, while their capability increases.
If $200 buys you X transistors this year, and 1.5X transistors in 2008, then as long as inflation doesn't exceed 22% a year, you'll be getting more capability for less money each time.
Or at least that's true as long as the cost of the chips needed for an acceptable game machine make up a significant portion of the cost of the machine. When the chips are (much) less expensive than the rest of the components, the relative cost curve will flatten out.
-Mark
I would love to get a Wii (all my consoles were from Nintendo, with the exception the Atari 2600), but I belive the price will be prohibitive when it gets here (Brazil). The consoles are quite expensive, but the games are WAY expensive. I was looking forward to get a newer Nintendo system (my last one was the N64), but after seeing the price of the games for the Game Boy Micro, DS and GC I gave up. Just to give you an idea:
The cheapest Game Boy Micro I found goes for R$399.00 ~ $181.00 (expensive, but affordable considering you only need one console). GBA games: R$ 69.00 (older games) to R$249.00 (WTF!?) ~ $31.00 to $113.00
I don't know anyone who has any of these consoles, but I know quite a few people who have PS2. The PS2 costs about $295,00 (with mod chip installed), but the games are virtually free due to piracy.
Is the situation similar in other countries? That would explain why Sony sells so many PS2.
"...personality goes a long way."
An executive from SEGA, one of Nintendo's largest publishers...
If you had uttered this phrase to me 8 years ago, I would have told you that you need better jokes.
C'mon, Slashdot editors! You can do better than that! I can't believe you let such an error go through - everybody knows there is no such word as "Wii."
Next thing you know, you will let article posters make up other new words, like, oh, I dunno, "Viiv" or something. Sheesh! Darned editors.
I'm glad to hear predictions of a cheap unit, I wasn't big on the system till I saw the E3 coverage on TechTV where they showed the Tennis game for it (which uses the controllers as rackets), I was totally sold on it, then I found out Dragon Quest VIII is coming out for WII, SOLD!!! Now if only they released a new Bomber, Man game (err... Bomberman).
I must admit I'd be getting a Wii and then I can play Pokemon! *sputter cough* I mean Resident Evil...
On the serious side though, I'm in that group of "buy another console? Over my dead body!" I pinch pennies all the time now and I don't get to buy/play what I want anymore. Part of me actually wants all these consoles to undersell their expectations and then maybe just maybe these consoles will stop being pushed out so frequently.
Oh well, I can always play on my computer.
Oops, how did this get here?
09 F9 11 02 9D 74 E3 5B D8 41 56 C5 63 56 88 C0
FTFA:
TRANSLATION: "Lower-cot publishing environment" == "lower licensing fees" + "fewer resources to develop each title"
If they're able to cut the price of a game down to $20-$25 bucks (
... they'll do 5 things:
- take a huge bite out of the underground market for chip mods/pirate games
- beat the crap out of the competition
- get rid of game rentals - why rent when for $20 you can own?
- more than make up the $$$ on volume
- developers/publishers also get a much larger market, as the games become impulse buys. At $20, every game becomes a million-unit seller.
After all, with a console at $150, and games at $20-$30 a pop, it's the no-brainer buying decision.At $50 - $70 a game, people think twice, 3, 10 times before they buy ... at $20, they'll buy one a week.
Every Nintendo console has been released at 200$. That's their magic price point, any less and people will think it's used or dated, any more and they will skip it. Look at the Xbox 360; I still refuse to buy one because it's too friggin expensive. I'd rather blow 400$ on a Geforce 7800 for my PC. It's just too much for a game console given the limited selection and general expectation that I will only truly enjoy a handful of titles.
Nintendo on the other hand, sells a cheap console but churns out games at decent prices so you can build a nice collection of time wasters. The guilt factor is much less.
-Billco, Fnarg.com
Oh I don't doubt that for a second, but it's already a well established fact that development cost is significantly lower. The console price point, however, is not established yet. Everything hints at a price that is lower than previous launches, though whether that means $179 or $149 is anyone's guess. I just took a stab at $149 (actually I've posted about that before, right after seeing the Kaplan interview on IGN) to see if I'm a better analyst than Mr. Post. ;)
I think that just like Sony and Microsoft, Nintendo will release 2 different bundles, but the cheaper one wont have any crippled functionality. I'm thinking $200, for just the console and 1 wiimote with the nunchuck attachment, and $250 for lthe same with 1 classic controller, and maybe a game an/or gift certificate for virtual console too. I'm looking forward to virtual console and whatever sort of promotions they'll have with it. Remember the pepsi/itunes thing last summer? 1 in 20 caps wins $5 on virtual console. That'll be sweet...
"Sic Semper Tyrannosaurus Rex."
I'm hoping that Nintendo, as a repsonse to the PS3's price, sees the massive price breathing room and tacks a bit more RAM onto the Wii chipset.
Of course, I don't know how difficult that would be to do...
Does it make you happy you're so strange?
Assume the Wii only comes with one controller and no games (pretty realistic). When you walk into buy one you have to also get a game or two, and probally another controller.
We can also assume that the Wii costs about the same to make as the Cube, suggesting a similar price point.
I can easily see a starting bundle that's the Wii with it's one controller, another controller, and two first party games, plus some other random accessory for $299.99 + tax.
360 Can't beat that, and for that for the PS3 would probally cost $720+
SPOnG had this article a few days ago: http://news.spong.com/article/10052/Miyamoto+Outli nes+Wii+and+DS+Interconnectivity
Points to a $249 price point.
Highly unlikely. The Gamecube was easier to develop for (using your criterion, anyways), and games for that went at the same price as everyone else's.
-Erwos
Plausible conjecture should not be misrepresented as proof positive.
I don't care about price. The 360's future is uncertain. I hate Sony. I want a next-gen console. The Wii it is. Plus, I have a great deal more respect for Nintendo than either Sony or Microsoft. Sony's showing at E3? An expensive console with not a whole lot of interesting changes. Better graphics? Big deal. I want something different, not a more powerful incarnation of the PS2. A poorly implemented response to the Wii-mote? Not impressed. We've all seen the 360, and if it survives, I may eventually pick one up. But I haven't bought a console at release ever in my gaming life. I have a feeling the Wii might be the one that's actually worth it. And that's what'll make me buy the Wii.
Lowering price doesn't raise demand indefinitely. For a lot of people amount of free time is the determining factor in buying games - I don't think I would ever buy more than two a month. Even if they were free I probably wouldn't take any game I wasn't pretty sure I'd play and enjoy, who needs useless stuff lying around the house? I don't even warez stuff I'm not going to play.
You missed out that a low price would curtail the second hand market.
Personally I seriously doubt that Nintendo would take the price of games down that low. They make their hardware as cheap as they can, but they *want* you to notice the price and feel like you're getting a quality game, that games are special. Making them disposably cheap doesn't fit with that philosophy.
Buy a 10-retro-PC game compliation for $10 and see how you feel about the individual games, you won't give a shit about them. But you keep your copy of Wind Waker (or whatever Nintendo game you've bought at the launch price) on the shelf and be sure to put it back in its case, right? Because you care more about it because you had to hand over a noticable amount of cash.
Less than $200? How many controllers does that come with? None? One? How much are the controllers exactly? If the system is $200 but each controller is $50, then I'd have to spend $400 on the system because the system seems to be made for four-player games. I think the question of how many controllers come with the base system needs to be asked? And how much will each controller cost?
Blu-Ray on the PS3 runs at only 2x. Xbox 360 DVD runs at 12x.
times what though? I'm guessing the data thoroughput on Blu-Ray is higher than DVD.
At $50 - $70 a game, people think twice, 3, 10 times before they buy ... at $20, they'll buy one a week.
Many new DS games are $35, so I doubt that Nintendo would sell a console game for less than a portable one.
-G
www.pixelstatic.com
Bingo!
They kicked the PSP arse with the DS by using that tactic.
DS games are typically $20.00 to $40.00 new first day release.
PSP games can go upwards of $70.00
It's a no brainer. I own 2 DS's and 2 of every game I wanted. I have spent less than a friend that is a PSP nut and I have more games than he does.
The Wii will be in many, many more homes and will sell more games than the other two combined. Hell they already have more launch titles than the Xbox 360 has available now and the machine is not due for release for many months.
People want to be able to buy a game without having to research it 5 ways before buying it. If I blow $25.00 on a stinker I am not pissed. Blowing $50-$70 on a stinker get's me pissed enough to never buy another game for a certian console again.
Most games released today suck anyways. The last game I bought was the innovative "guitar hero" for the PS2 and the "DS Brain Age" game.
I play the DS brain age game every day along with my daily dose of animal crossing crack or a race at work with others on Mario Kart DS.
No games on the other platforms are interesting enough for me to play daily. And a lot of people feel the same way recently due to the recent explosion of ho-hum games from most game makers.
Now if they port Command AND conquer to the DS, I'd be extremely unproductive.
Do not look at laser with remaining good eye.
Why are you fretting so much about the Wii?
Its CPU is basically a G5 from what I've read. And from personal experience, a 970 FX can easilly destroys the P3/Celeorn-hybrid found in the XBox and the Custom G3 found in the GC. Your "hardly comment" only goes to show how ignorant you are about these things. The Wii's GPU is at least 4 or 5 generations ahead of its predecessor, so that's going to make a big difference in performance. It's also pretty much guaranteed that the Wii will have a PPU. If this is the case, it will make a substantial difference in performance for 3D games, and free up the CPU to do other tasks. A dedicated PPU would be much faster than the software route the X360 and PS3 have taken.
I found most of what you sated to be more inflammatory than instightful. But it's good that you pointed out the backwards compatibily. I know you were trying to use that to state your case, but it's one of the Wii's strengths and it's just another reason for me to buy one.
The Wiimote isn't an afterthought like Sony's hack-job as an example, so all Wii games that can benefit from it, will support it. This is why the Wii is going to be great and you honestly can't deny you would love this sort of thing on your favorite console. You're only "trying" to spread "misinformation" by stating things like a "handfull of games." Like that's going to change anything, since Nintendo has a huge line up of Wii games, which are wiimote-friendly, which will be ready for launch. A bundled "main" controller won't have problems getting support from developers; Get real!
Anway, most of your points can easilly be applied to the other consoles, since they're basically upgrades. They haven't changed gaming, they've only moved consoles up to the level of mid-ranged PCs when it comes to visual eye-candy. Nintendo's Wii is the only console that has brought something new to the plate and it has all the potentional to evovle gaming beyond the current state of same, which MS and Sony are moving forward with. An upgrade is better graphics and more power, not a whole new way to game, which only the Wii can offer.
<]=)
Moore's law has nothing to do with clock speeds - it's all about the number of transistors on a minimal-cost chip.
There's a pretty good description here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore's_law
I'm not sure I understand your example at all. I doubt you'll see a $80 or $120 microprocessor in a game console whose total BOM cost is under $200. High-end processors are, more or less by definition, not on the maximum-value part of the curve. However...
I don't know for sure how many transistors are in each of those processors, but one web reference I found had them at 54.3 million and 63.5 million, respectively. That's about a 17% increase in # of transistors.
After adjusting for inflation, the price difference is about $10, or a little under 10%. So you get 17% more processor for 10% higher cost.
QED.
Just another reason for me to say don't fear the Wiiper
get rid of game rentals - why rent when for $20 you can own?
I don't know, people still rent movies and they are $20. But then again movies don't have the replay value of games. Personally I prefer to rent whenever I can, if I like it then I'll buy it. This wouldn't change, I would just be more likely to buy. Now with the $5 and $10 "classic" games I'll be buying them up like cheap Human Stimulation Engineers.
Iwata stated that wii games will retail for $49.99 american
Well, I thought he said something along the lines of they wouldn't be more expensive then current generation games (which retail for $39.99-$49.99). Personally, I expect that Wii games (for the most part) will retail for $39.99-$49.99, XBox 360 games will sell for $49.99-$59.99 and PS3 games will be in the $59.99-$69.99 range; the reason I suspect the PS3 games will be so expensive is that Sony will bow to third party publisher's demands and increase the price by $10, and all PS3 games will be on Blu-Ray to curb piracy which will also increase the price of games by $10.
I do suspect that we will see some Wii games with small price tags. Wii sports seems like a perfect title to sell for $19.99-$29.99, the gameplay and graphics are quite simple and it apears the game is being developed by 6 different directors inbetween other projects; with how the game looks I wouldn't be surprised if each director had 2 to 4 people working on a specific Wii Sport and that the game will be released with 18-24 mini games. You'd be looking at a total cost somewhere between $500,000 - $1.5 Million (which is remarkably cheap in modern times).
Comment removed based on user account deletion
Dude stop being such a fanboy your posts are starting to get freaky. How about you start posting the good news poping out for PS3 like the fact that all the rumors you posted are untrue (like the no wireless controllers) or that the japanese think the PS3 stole E3. I mean you dont have to, but it would make you look like less of a Nintendo fanboy.
Assuming that the rumored unit pricing is true...
At least Nintendo remembers why people buy videogame consoles instead of (or in addition to) general purpose computers. People bought all of the most successful game systems because they were a cheap and easy to entertain your kids, NOT because they were higher powered - consoles are all low powered compared to loaded gamer PC's. Of course, for every generation of game systems there is competition about who has the best spec's and, more importantly, the best games, but every time a company forgets that the most important thing is to be cheap and easy, they end up making an absurdly over-spec'd, over-priced, overly complex system that fails in the marketplace because they chased after the high-end niche market instead of the mainstream.
Winning Systems: NES, GameBoy, PlayStation, PlayStation 2 (pushing the high-end of pricing at launch, but came down).
Losing Systems: Intellivision, Atari Lynx, NEC Turbo Graphix, 3DO, DreamCast, Xbox. All tried to sell more functionality for more money than people were willing to pay.
When I look at the next generation systems, the Wii looks like the NES and GameBoy - a cheap and easy way to entertain your kids. And Sony and MS's next boxes look a lot like 3DO - great spec's, but wiped out by more pragmatic competition.
Sony's only hope is that they can somehow convince people to buy PS3's as their HD DVD player, which might get home theater enthusiasts to buy PS3's. The Xbox 360 seems doomed to me, once its real competition arrives.
My prediction is that the Wii will outsell the PS3 and Xbox 360 by massive amounts, because Nintendo is (1) targeting the mainstream market, and (2) focusing on gameplay, innovating in areas like the controllers, and their downloadable game service, that don't price them out of their market. The risk I see to the Wii is that if game publishers don't think it'll do well, they won't sell games for it, hurting it in the general marketplace. But if Nintendo is committed to the Wii's success, I think it'll do decently well just on the strength that you can buy it (if rumors are true). As a parent, I think I'm more likely to buy a Wii for $200 just to play whatever the next cool Mario game is, rather than to spend $4-500 (or more?!) for the competition. Heck, the Wii controller is the only interesting thing I've read about any of these units, and it's on the cheapest one...
Enable 3D printed prosthetics!
After all, with a console at $150, and games at $20-$30 a pop, it's the no-brainer buying decision.
Or better yet! Why don't they give out the console for free! And pay you to take the games off retailers shelves!
[/sarcasm]
I'm looking forward to the launch of the Wii too, but let's not get carried away here. Nintendo has to adjust for inflation eventually, so consoles aren't going to launch under $200 anymore. And you fail to take into consideration the fact that the dollar is weak against the yen.
All this speculation is just setting up Nintendo for a fall. $250 is a reasonable price point. $200 is overly optimistic. $150 is foolish. What's going to happen when Nintendo announces a $250 launch price is that everyone who convinced themselves that it was going to launch for $150 is going to disappoint themselves - even though it will still be $50 - $100 less than the XBox 360!
Let's try to keep grounded in reality here.
Buy a 10-retro-PC game compliation for $10 and see how you feel about the individual games, you won't give a shit about them. But you keep your copy of Wind Waker (or whatever Nintendo game you've bought at the launch price) on the shelf and be sure to put it back in its case, right? Because you care more about it because you had to hand over a noticable amount of cash.
Yep, you know how Asteroids is so much more enthralling than LoZ....
(IANAL)
Yes but is the pun in "raise" because their console is called Wii
Please explain this one?
(IANAL)
I have also heard the Wii software development kit will cost a small $2000 Compare this to the cost of the PS2 SDK at lanch date, $20,000 !! Also the less pressure to develop high graphics games will make game development cheap as chips.. it takes a team of 200 graphics developers to make those high res textures that ONLY people with High definition TVs can see.. and how much of the population has HD TV's right now? And if games are going to be realsed on Blue Ray discs, expect them to cost EVEN MORE!
Uhh dreamcast was 200 dollars at launch, and offered great GAME titles and nothing else, but it's on your fail list. It did fail, but it only disproves your theory. Also add n64 on the list of game systems that disprove your theory. It also launched for under $199, nor did it chase the highend niche market. Systems succeed while other's fail, but it's not because they're "over spec'd, over-priced, overly complex"
PS3 will not be getting considered.
"Those who cast the votes decide nothing. Those who count the votes decide everything" -- Josef Stalin
I have a feeling in addition to reduced prices Microsoft will make the Xbox 360 free w/ a 3-5year subscription to live when the Wii/PS3 is released. If somebody was having a hard time choosing between PS3 or Xbox360 I think that could really pull them toward Xbox.
Also parents who have kids begging for the new console would be more likely to sign a payment plan that having to drop $500-600 down for a new console for Xmas. Not to mention they could warrent spending another $200 on software so they kid has a game to actually play.
Ok lets talk specs. Sources are from wiki and sites mentioned in above comments.
CPU: GC = 485 MHz IBM Power PC "Gekko" | WII = (rumored) 729 Mhz IB Power PC 790 FX
So this must be the "1.5" argument. Another poor soul who thinks processing power is the primary component of speed. I think its debatable if it's underpowered, but saying it's 1.5 times as fast is silly because the pipelines, instruction set extensions, materials, and god knows what else affects overall throughput. I have a new amd turion 64 2.0 GHz. My old model was an amd athlon 2.20 GHz. The new one compiles faster...
MEMORY: GC = 40 mg | WII = 512 mb of flash, possibly some other stuff
Well this is over 10 times more, not 1.5 more. And I believe this is a key component to the true perceived speed of this thing (besides the vid card). One thing nintendo seemed smart enough to realize is that new games are going to need a $hit load of memory, pardon my french. People want fast load times in large complex environments. This requires (fast!) memory. READ: memory is often more important than processing power.
Vid Card: from the rage3d rumor mill web site:
***
Revolution's ATI-provided "Hollywood" GPU clocks in at 243MHz. By comparison, GameCube's GPU ran at 162MHz, while the GPU on the original Xbox was clocked at 233MHz. Sources we spoke with suggest that it is unlikely the GPU will feature any added shaders, as has been speculated. "The 'Hollywood' is a large-scale integrated chip that includes the GPU, DSP, I/O bridge and 3MBs of texture memory," a studio source told us.
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So again, we only see small change in processor speed, therefore its just 1.5 times better (sarcasm). Who knows what silly cartoon shading nutty graphics enhancements this video card features?
"Recursive bipartite matching"- try it!
Curse you slashdot! Removing my "greater than" sign, the main point of my subject line!
"Recursive bipartite matching"- try it!
I don't know how it is over there. But here DVDs are available for rent weeks before they are in the store (for an overpriced 20 euro). I rent my movies at 5 euro per 2, usual price is 4 euro. A lot of movies I watch (because of the 5 euro deal) are not worth buying even if they were 10 euro.
When I first saw the title, I thought Merrill Lynch started to make predictions about male prostitution prices.
"Merrill Lynch Predicts $200 a Wii"
Though I heard a little boy jumping up and down and whinning to his mother in the store: "I want a Wii! I want a Wii!"
Then the thought occurred to me and I started to wonder if that "boy" is really a girl.
So, if I got an extra external hard drive for it, would that count as a "Wii enhancement"?
if a low price point is given, this console should literally fly off the shelves. I know Nintendo always likes to sell at a profit but I think market penetration may be more important in this case.
Although, with scenes like this then I doubt there will be too much of a problem for them. (take note sony fanboys, even when playing the PS3 is free it's still not as good)
being vague is almost as cool as doing that other thing...
MEMORY: GC = 40 mg | WII = 512 mb of flash, possibly some other stuff
you seem to be mistaking RAM with Flash. RAM is where it loads your temporary information, whereas Flash is where it stores data like saves and virtual console games. Although flash could concievably be used for swap space, it is slower than RAM (although faster than a hard drive)
The amount of RAM on the system has not been officially released, but I think from the IGN article which "leaked" the specs gave 88MB RAM
being vague is almost as cool as doing that other thing...
Exactly! Think about the fact that BR discs are supposed to initially cost $25 EACH, think about that for a second. Meanwhile, MS is providing discs that cost $1, same with Nintendo. So, the first BR games may cost as much as $80-$90. So, in other words, no developers will bother using BR for PS3 games, ever. Won't happen unless that price can drop significantly. For that to happen there has to be a HUGE market for BR, which means it would have to become the hi-def standard, which may or may not happen. Even then it may take as much as 3-4 years, since there's really no point in having BR unless you have a HDTV. The quality jump is not as great from VHS to DVD, it's called diminishing returns. Is it possible to imagine a video standard better than HDTV? Unlikely, we have arrived at the end of the upgrade spectrum, and these standards will be commoditized for potentially decades. Yet another reason Sony is willing to nearly bacnkrupt the company ensuring that that standard IS Blu-Ray. That is, until we start going to 3D... ;P
hmm yeah your right...I really hope they do better than 88 MB ram though. If not, it better be lightning fast / integrated/
"Recursive bipartite matching"- try it!
atleast its not PlaySkool's Playdough Playstation
*plays the Apogee theme song music*
Ok, let's work off of a couple of assumptions here: $200 for the system $100 for games (you buy 2 at $50) $50 for a controller (you buy 1 extra) $50 for a memory card. $400 + tax spent on day one and you get the system, 2 controllers, 2 games, and storage. What does that get you with the other systems? A premium Xbox 360 with nothing else, a core 360 with a game and controller, and a laughing clerk when you tell him you want to buy a ps3 with $400. In today's economy that is not really showing signs of improvement, people are going to try and save money, especially with gas at nearly $3 a gallon. For everyone who says that Nintendo is rethinking their pricing because of the price of the ps3, think about this: Nintendo designed their console trying to keep their costs in line. They knew about the price of the 360 yet still kept this design. It was painfully obvious to anyone who paid attention that the ps3 would cost more than the 360 due to the components involved. Why would they reprice the Wii when they probably went into the design process with a specific price point in mind?
Don't forget... I read somewhere that the GameCube controllers will work on the Wii. Talk about savings. That way I don't need to rush out and buy a bunch of controllers. Oh, and the Cube games will work on it too. Bonus. Sounds like Nintendo is ramping up for a winner. I have to say I hope to see stores start stocking more than 2 shelves of Nintendo games compared to a whole aisle of the other systems. As a Cube owner it's depressing to have poor selection, or see a commercial for a sweet game only to see the tag line: Only for PC, PS2 & Xbox. Game selection and price will be the KEY factors, not specs.
There are other reasons that systems fail - but all of the "over-spec'd, over-priced, overly complex" systems failed (which, I think, is what will happen with the PS3 and Xbox 360). Then, between the companies that are selling products that people actually want, there are winners and losers. The N64 failed (IMO) because it was cartridge-based, with Nintendo forcing all game companies to use Nintendo to manufacture the cartridges, making it much more expensive and risky to sell N64 games than Playstation games. The DreamCast, well, Sega ran out of money.
Enable 3D printed prosthetics!
You're being sarcastic, but I've spent a LOT more time playing asteroids than Zelda. And I'm not some late-70s-arcade-raised crusty, I'm 25.
With the buzz the Wii has right now (and hopefully at release), I fully expect Nintendo will go whole hog and release the Wii at $299. Three to six months later, it'll drop to $249, and six months to a year later, $199. Simply put, I think it'll sell at that higher price point, even to non-gamers, because I think they are putting out a great system. Particularly, I think the launch titles will sell it even at the higher price, and Nintendo has never been one to turn away money. If they start at $199, they'll have nowhere down to go... I don't think they wanna sell it at $149, because they would be losing money per box.
Unlike Sony and MS, Nintendo prefers to MAKE money on the boxes too, not just on the games. Since price cuts later in a units lifetime boost sales, they need to start somewhere high enough that they CAN cut prices, and still make money on the box. So I predict a starting point of $249 or even $299. I'm budgeting for $300, plus another $300 to buy a bunch of launch titles. Screw the PS3, I want my lightsaber... *cough*, I mean, I want my Wii remote.
Raven
"I will trust Google to 'do no evil' until the founders no longer run it." Hello Alphabet.
Untrue in many cases.
Multi-platform releases for the GC would often be the same price as they were for the other systems (around $50 at release), but generally everything else (exclusive third party and first party) was on average about $40 or less.
On top of that, the GC was easier to develop for than the Xbox and PS2, but not by that large of a margin. The gap has widen this generation though. The Wii is substantially easier to cope with than either the PS3 or the 360 if for no other reason than it is essentially a beefed up Gamecube.
The PS3 at least has the PS2 compatibility advantage over the 360, because Sony doesn't want to kill the PS2 just yet. The Microsoft hasn't officially killed the Xbox (as far as I know), but they aren't exactly making great efforts to keep it alive either.
"Everything you know is wrong. (And stupid.)"
Moderation Totals: Wrong=2, Stupid=3, Total=5.
Someone better remake Bushido Blade for the Wii controller.
What I wouldn't pay for that combo... Just duct-tape the controller to a piece of wood any voila! Home kendo practice!
"First lesson," Jon said. "Stick them with the pointy end."
The n64 failed? I don't really consider taking 40% of the market a failure. Maybe your definintion is different than mine. It didn't do as well as the PS1, but it certainly didn't "fail".
I've upped my standards, so up yours.
Well, it was on the Gamecube, I don't see why not here. (Go look up 1T-SRAM and compare it to DDR DRAM that everyone else used).
I've upped my standards, so up yours.
"Because you care more about it because you had to hand over a noticable amount of cash."
If that were true, then piracy would be eliminated. And nobody would play freeware games. And nobody would buy used games.
Why would an indsutry who has been selling games for 49$ for a while drop their price now that it costs them less to make them. They are in the business of making money, and if the games are still cheaper than the PS3/360, then there's no point dropping the prices for Wii games down from the GameCube prices. It's simply higher profit margins. And we all know how companies like profits. Which is fine by me, since more profits may mean that now that they have more money in the bank they will try new things that they wouldn't dare try before. Even more innovation.
On the contrary, I want the prices to STAY the same if the development costs are lower!
Companies don't want higher profit margins - they want higher profits. The two are NOT the same.
Think about it - at $25 a pop, someone who gets into the habit of buying one a week is going to spend more over the course of a year ($1,350.00) than someone who buys one every month at $50 a pop ($600.00).
Plus you'll get all those who won't spend $50.00, but will spend $25.00.
A lot of people will look at something and go "$50.00 - it's overpriced." then "$25.00 - gee, I'll take 4 ... two for me, one for my kid, one for a present for that upcoming birthday ...
Charge less - more than make it up in volume.
At the lower price point, you end up growing your potential market. Plus, you end up weakening your competitors by stealing sales from them.
As a developer/retailer/manufacturer/distributor, which would you rather have - $4 a pop over 10x as much sales, or $10 a pop over 1/10 the sales?
Exactly. And further, the player choice titles can then go to $10 and become the easiest continued sales ever.
With gas prices as they are, renting becomes more and more expensive especially with the time involved as well.
Nintendo has stated that the game prices will be variable, which is actually the best way to handle this. Some games may be $40-50 for truly in-depth and extensive games, and some will be sold at a fraction of that for quick pick-up and play titles. I believe it was Iwata who stated that not all games need to be novels as they are now, and that there is a place for a magazine/periodical in the market.
http://teasphere.wordpress.com - A little spot of tea
$200 seems like the most likely choice considering the history of launch prices. But remember, this is Nintendo. They surprised us with the wiimote and the "Wii" name. At this rate, they'll be launching a price less than $200 (say $150) or have a really nice bundle that'll be $200.
Every geek has some sort of website, programming or computer project. Here's mine: www.youtasteit.com . What's yours?
There will of course be diminishing returns to the profits they might be able to reap by reducing profit margins in favor of a larger volume of sales. You can only milk your market so much. Even if you increase the size of the market from lower prices of entry, there will still be a limit.
There is another cost to video games aside from the pricetag. There's an economic cost involved in playing games. You have a limited amount of time to spend, and for some, this time cost is more valuable than the 30 or so dollars they spend picking which game to go with. I have work, and other hobbies. If I buy 1 game at 50 dollars, I wouldn't necessarily buy 5 games at 10 dollars apiece because I simply don't have the time to play 5 games.
For kids the economic cost of playing more games is low for them since they have relatively fewer things they have to do or need to do. Adults have tons of things they need to take care of. A price drop would have kids grabbing quite a bit more games. A price drop for adults would have a bit less. Different price elasticities. The adults are currently the larger age group.
I don't think game companies will see an increase in profits from dropping below say 30. That said, I could buy that they could afford kicking it down to around 40-50. I base this upon absolutely nothing other than a pure guess about how much prices are hindering the growth of the gamer demographic.
I don't know about others, but if I've budgeted 50$ a month for games, I'm not going to buy 4 of them at 25$. I'm only going to buy 2. But that's me.
I'm not a sales specialist, but I don't see how this way of thinking works. I know there are impulsive buys that might make me buy 3 a month instead of two, but still. I don't see this really working. Plus, if you sold your game for less and the game tanked, you're not really better off. Not much profits, so you tend to take less risks. Anyway, I am not a business man, so that's just my naive way of looking at it.
So what kind of profit margin are we talking about with a $200 price point? Or will they be selling for a loss like Sony and MS?
Journal
Nintendo has had this technology for quite a while.
Its a known fact that you cannot get past the big hole in level 8-1 Supermario without atually moving your torso to the right quite a bit.
now that it costs them less to make them.
It doesn't, though -- have you noticed the Hollywoodization of the gaming industry that's been going on for the past 5-10 years? Developers are spending more than ever on their hit games, and costs are going to rise some more before they fall again.
It may be cheaper to press a DVD than to burn and assemble a cartridge full of ROM chips in it, yes, but it doesn't follow that "making video games" as a whole is less expensive than it used to be.
Your post was right on except:
3. get rid of game rentals - why rent when for $20 you can own?
For the same reason people rent DVDs now?
Well, at the lower price, they're not just games any longer - they fall into the "impulse buy" area, same as dvds for $5 a pop - something you pick up along with the groceries, as opposed to "shopping for".
They also become something that, instead of buying an expensive title and having your friends all bug you for it, they each get their own copy. Again, market expanded.
Plus, when you're trying to cater to those outside the traditional market, you're not going to get them to pop for $50/game when they're not avid gamers, just someone looking for something to blow some time away. They'll enjoy a tetris clone a lot more than a WoW.
With time in shorter supply, people don't want games that take forever master. They want something they can pop in the box, play for a half-hour, then get on with their life.
Games are different from movies - if you like the game, you're going to want to play it for more than one evening. At $20 a copy, you're not going to bother renting - you'll hear its something you might be interested, and take a chance on it - and if you don't like it, you'll pass it along or trade it with a friend. At $60 a copy, you'll rent it first ... just in case ... and those rentals increase your incremental cost to buy the game - because now the cost to buy the game is rental+cost, not just cost.
That's how it was for VHS in North America. But, BlockBuster gambled on the DVD format. They decided that they wouldn't share any rental profits from DVD's. So, the studios basically sell dvd's the same time that they make them available for rent. The old vhs deals was 60/40 I think. BlockBuster would give over 40% of the money from rentals as long as the studios didin't make them available for sale for a while (usually months to a year). That deal is gone now. BlockBuster basically thought the DVD format wouldn't take off and they fucked up.
Why does everyone have to say things like "less than $200"? Why can't you just say $199?? Is that so hard?
Coder's Stone: The programming language quick ref for iPad
How about two-handed sword combat?
I totally agree with you. I was simply going along with his premise that the costs would be lower. I doubt making games for a machine a "wii" more powerful and with a whole new control scheme is going to cost less than a GameCube.
Yeah, it's great, I probably haven't rented 10 DVDs since the format was introduced almost as many years ago.
"Multi-platform releases for the GC would often be the same price as they were for the other systems (around $50 at release), but generally everything else (exclusive third party and first party) was on average about $40 or less."
Not every game for every other platform was $50, either, so this point is somewhat non-sensical. My point stands: the prices were approximately the same.
"On top of that, the GC was easier to develop for than the Xbox and PS2, but not by that large of a margin. The gap has widen this generation though. The Wii is substantially easier to cope with than either the PS3 or the 360 if for no other reason than it is essentially a beefed up Gamecube."
That's one way of looking at it. Another view is that devs will have to significantly rewrite their multiplatform releases because the Wii is so much different than the other two consoles in terms of graphical capabilities and controls.
The 360 has Xbox backwards-compat, too, although it's admittedly somewhat lackluster in some cases. I was just playing Halo on it the other day, in fact.
-Erwos
Plausible conjecture should not be misrepresented as proof positive.
You must live in a very cheap country because 'round here GC games go for the same 60 Euros all the other (console) games do plus they don't drop in price until the store decides that stock has to go at all costs. For the PS2 I can find dozens of worthwhile budget titles, for the GC I'm lucky if I find one budget game that'd be worth buying (and usually those are the ones I bought years ago when they were new).
Justice is the sheep getting arrested while an impartial judge declares the vote void.