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PS3 Predicted to Lead Market Through 2011
eldavojohn writes "The Yankee Group (a Boston Technology firm) recently announced that it predicts Sony's PS3 to lead the market with a 44% share through 2011. Most interesting is their prediction that the Wii will maintain only 16% of the market share. From the article: 'The analyst group believes Sony will lead in next-gen market share by 44% in 2011, with Xbox 360 taking a close 40% share, followed by Wii with a wee little bitty 16% share.'"
;^D
I hereby predict that the Xbox 360 will have 100% market share of the "Next-Gen" market through September.
Microsoft, can I have my check now?
Well, it's been a fun ride Nintendo and Microsoft. They will be missed. PS3 is the bomb, it's now official. In order to stay cool, I will have to get the PS3 for all the neighborhood 8 year olds to ogle me.
How much did Sony pay them to say that?
My own prediction was that Wii will kick ass, at least in terms of units and games sold. But I suppose if a PS3 costs the same as 3-5 Wii's, Nintendo would have to sell 3-5 for every 1 PS3 to match their market share by the Yankee group's measure. Sort of like how Linux has a very low market share when measured by operating system license revenue.
Are they basing these predictions thru last generation where PS2 was dominating, then it was Xbox, then it was GC & its handhelds.
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Nintendo is dying.
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The "article" is pretty light on details. My guess is that they are looking to the past to forecast the future. While not a bad strategy I can't see that leading to much accuracy in the current scenario.
In the past, the PS2 was in a class by itself (after destroying the Dreamcast). For a long time it was THE console to have, and by the time the others (GC and XBox) came into play it was too well entrenched and had a huge library of games.
Now it will be competing with the XBox 360 (say what you want about it, but at least it's out already) and a newly released Wii. Unless there's a lot more going on than I'm aware of, I can't see how it will dominate for the next 5 years when:
- it's entering a market already saturated with similar hardware specs (even if slightly weaker)
- price entry
Had they beaten the 360 and Wii to market, then I could see it. But this isn't the past.
Well, there we go. Proof that those so-called "expert/analysts" don't know anything aside from making shocking statistics to grab headlines.
I predict about 70% for the Wii, 30% for the Xbox 360 and 15% for the PS3. I know it adds up to more than 100% but given all those "Xbox 360 + Wii = PS3" comments we've all heard so far, I think it's realistic.
As for the Wii getting 70%? Well, don't forget that we can look at the Nintendo DS for proof: Nintendo are grabbing a lot of non-gamers and the Wii shouldn't be any different. A lot of so-called "hardcore gamers" will go for the Xbox 360 and/or the PS3, but they're only a tiny % of the general population.
It doesn't look like they're taking cost or popular opinion into account.
Wii: $199, with hopefully revolutionary must-have controller mechanism.
Controller fad might die off, but it will still be fun to use. Lots of games.
Weaker hardware allows cheap cost. Price is at the point where you can pick it up without thinking if theres a game that appeals. Free online play. Ideal christmas present for children too - cheap, and ideal for secondary TVs in the house rather than the main HDTV.
360: $299 - $399
PS£: $499 - $599
Both of these are 'stop and think' purchases for anyone. You really have to justify the purchase.
Of course, the price will come down over time for both of these - the PS3 will drop quite drastically once BluRay drives become cheaper to make, say around 2008. There'll probably be price parity by the end of 2008, Microsoft might have moved to HD-DVD inside the console. The Wii will be cheaper too, and fun games can spread like a fever like Guitar Hero has in my circle of friends. And Nintendo is popular because of the DS.
At a time when people are tightening their purses and wallets because of higher cost of living, a high priced console is not the ideal product. Some games might be so 'must have' that a lot of consoles will sell, but I really do think that it will be 40-30-30 this time around - which wins is in the air right now.
Nevermind that Sony is not popular right now, and can't do anything right.
Um, high prices, yet PS3 will dominate? MS will undercut PS3? What about Wii?
Honestly, these numbers are suspect just due to lack of any real data points. The Wii is not the gamecube. The PS3 is not the PS2. And the Xbox360 does not equate to Xbox. The variable are different this time around.
Personally, the Wii is the first console I'm planning on buying since the Playstation 1, and it's the 1st one I am hoping to spend a decent amount playing since SNES (I only ended up owning 3-4 PS 1 games, got it more out of habit than actual want and dropped out of gaming since).
I think the Wii will wipe the floor with either. Graphics, at the level they are at, have ceased to be the most important factor to me, unlike 10 years back. Now it's all about fun.
This post probably will be only echoing a point a million others have already and will make, but isn't that evidence in itself?
I, along with my respected technology firm of Dewey, Cheatem, and Howe, and Dionne Warwick's psychic friends, combined with enough Magic Eight Balls to count up to 480, do hereby predict that the Virtual Boy will make a major comeback and obtain 67% of the market. Following by a close second with 54% will be a Tiger Handheld LCD version of The Lion King, with the remaining 32% playing with some sticks and gravel they found on the ground.
Please send the usual large bags of moneys for my business-analyisisting fees to my Summerhouse in the Hamptons, will you? thx.
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They're Yankees in Boston: of course they're confused.
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That is if PS3 does ever make it out by 2011.
People who play video games disagree.
You sir, are one of the only voices of reason here. You realize how business works.
While the nerd crowd here can look at the Wii (uh, that name...) and be pleased with the innovative interface, the low price, the focus on gameplay over graphics and yes, substance... this isn't how the marketing will flow.
Sony will drive dumptrucks of money to ad agencies all over the planet. It will be like a blitzkrieg of PS3 as we approach the launch; I wouldn't be surprised if they spent $100 million on ads alone. Microsoft will counter, having anticipated this for years, and probably roll out their own add-on HD drive as well - more marketing insanity to follow.
Nintendo will of course do their own marketing push, but don't be surprised if you hate the approach they take. Big N is after 'the rest of us', the non-gamer, and will appropriately tailor their messaging to this end. That means, more girls, more moms, more people who do not typically play video games. Yes, there will be Metroid and a few others to keep the original fans happy. But it will not be the juggernaut that Sony and MS will unleash. Its just not the same market anymore.
I like the Wii but I think that this go-round they only have a shot at 2nd place, at best. The videogame market has eclipsed the filmmaking industry for several years now, and the people who put it there are you guys, buying the kind of games you like. That's where most of the money is. Nintendo is gambling big time with this new machine; they want to create a new segment of the market, sort of like the iPod did. Good for them. But this is a risky strategy. Sony and Microsoft are taking the safe route, MS the safest of all.
It may not make for great headlines to the crusty gamer crowd here who appreciates Nintendo's willingness to break the mold, but for general 'consumption' I acutally tend to agree with the market analysis of FTA. For different reasons than they stated.
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That's all this is on Slashdot considering how Nintendo heavy the fans are around here. If you just read here, you would have to assume the only console people will buy is the Wii. It will be really insteresting to see how the 3 compete this year. It surely won't be 70% wii as Mr. fanboy posted up earlier...but Nintendo at has a decent chance this time around to be competitive as far as sales go (we all know they will be the most profitable). I really don't care who wins. Competition is a good thing because it forces companies to innovate, increase quality, or reduce prices. People who want Nintendo to destroy the competition are morons. With no competition their next console could be like the VirtualBoy. I hope all the companies do well and continue to bring us better things at a competitive price.
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Slashdot has run a number of articles about analysts predicting this or that console manufacture will sell X or Y million machines in the next generation, so to help us sort through the archives more efficiently, I propose that we all use the same tag to mark these stories for quick searching.
The tag?
"Bullshit".
should read "PS2 to lead through 2011". That is my armchair prediction anyway. Microsoft has a nice niche market for themselves but cannot seem to grow. Nintendo will carve out a potentially bigger niche, and Sony will shoot themselves in the foot, but honestly I don't think that any of the next gens will reach anywhere near the market penetration of the playstation 2.
Monstar L
PS3 will lead the market and the Phantom will be released. Duke Nukem Forever will be completed. Hell will freeze over, pigs will fly and I'll say ye haw!
Nintendo had the long lines at E3 to try out the Wii-mote. We've all seen the videos of everyone playing with it and saying it was cool, fun, etc. Unlike yourself, there seemed to be far MORE people "want[ing] to wave that around" than there were to wanting to play 360 or PS3 demos.
Maybe the PS3 will have 44% of the bluray player market. (The presence of X360 and Wii in the calculation being from the kind of people who own a Gamecube and ask the EB clerk for the Xbox version of Mario.)
What sound do people on rollercoasters make? Hint: it's not Xbox 360.
Actually FPS seems to work way better with the new wiimote than with traditional analog sticks on other consoles, still not as good as
with a mouse but way better than the usual stick on the pad.
As for the hype, have you been living in a parallel universe, ever since E3 Nintendo went from the underdog to the must have console
and the recent DS push helps that as well.
Um, high prices, yet PS3 will dominate?
Very possible, if people prefer the PS3 as a console. The highest price in a market is not nessicarily the one with the lowest market share. It's a lot cheaper to buy Big K soda or other generic equivilent yet Coke still domiantes the soda market.
MS will undercut PS3?
Yes, and? It seems pretty clear they will do so (though the last I head they had no plans for price cuts this Christmas since the PS3 is more expensive to start with).
What about Wii?
The Wii at this point is a real enigma in this space. To me any estimate from 17% to 80% seems like it could come to be... so much depends on games and marketing and consumer reaction that I don't think anyone can accuratley predict where it will end up.
Personally I see the next gen as being a battle between the PS3 and the Wii with the 260 taking second by default of lacking anything really new in the space. The PS3 and Wii both offer innovations in control. The PS3 offers an HD video player and greater storage while the Wii focuses on trying to reach gamers not reached by consoles before. Both of them offer free online match play.
"There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
You sir are incorrect.
I'm a gamer and the Wiimote to me seems kind of a turn off. Don't really want it, but then I remember going "wow that touch screen is going to be so useless". Now I have to say I love my DS and the dual screens is insanely useful. The Wii will do the same, they'll have a rough start but people will soon get the hand of it and see how it should be used and then we'll open up entirely new genres, give us stuff we've always dreamed of (light saber fights are a hit with everyone).
So what is "I'm so hardcore I must have one of every console" doesn't dig the Wii. Thre are other options for them, but the Wii is going to be just like the gamecube as far as I can see. It won't be "teh uber popular" it won't be the strongest, but when you just want some fun and games you'll turn it on and get exactly what it said on the box.
As for the FPS comment.. Well when the hell did a console do FPS well? (STFU Halo fans before you even start). PCs are always better than consoles at FPS and RTS because they were more or less designed for their unique controls.
On the other hand think of playing something like Bushido blade with the Wii or a Zombie invasion style game where you have to fight off zombies as you escape the city or whatever.
Oh and are you forgetting the gamecube controller plugs straight into the Wiimote so we can play the "classic" style games at the same time?
I like muppets.
I can't see how it will dominate for the next 5 years when:
,including major japanese developer support which is important to a lot of people - just look how beloved the Metal Gear franchise is (even though personally I'm not that crazy about it).
- it's entering a market already saturated with similar hardware specs (even if slightly weaker)
- price entry
It has one major hardware advanatge which is the Blu-Ray player.
As for price, it's only $100 more than the 360 yet when you factor in Live costs is actually only $50 more - the first year. Plus is has a huge back catalog and a lot of developers onboard
If in two years the console is not doing well then developers might start dropping off the system, which would cause problems. Look how lond developers have hung around the PSP though which had a lot tougher barriers to entry!
As always, in the end the games for a system matter most. If the PS3 can deliver enough compelling games then people will buy the system despite the high price - on eBay for the whole month of December the average price for a 360 was around $800 which prooves that people will pay quite a lot for something new.
"There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
Wasn't Laura Didio from the Yankee Group? Any followers of Groklaw will remember their input on the SCO vs. IBM case. Didio thought that SCO would win. Ha!
:-) Of course, given how low anyone's expectations are for that thing at this point, one would think that it'd have to be at least possible for it to "exceed expectations" somehow; I just won't buy one no matter what [1] and I doubt it'll be that great.
In other words, I wouldn't take their predictions too seriously. Given the news we've seen lately, and the fact that I hate Sony, I really want the PS3 to tank, anyhow
[1] Like I said, I'm pissed at Sony. Seriously, I'm still about as mad as if they'd run over my dog. Even being a long time fan of Final Fantasy, there's no damn way in hell I'll buy their console, and only a complete and thorough change in company policy and behavior would make me stop boycotting their products.
How did this get marked insightful? If anything, we should be looking at the success of the DS and realizing that the future of gaming is moving in a new direction. Hardcore gamers will always have a place, but I believe the big sellers will be geared more towards casual gamers. It may be true that they might only pick up a game or three, but they far out number us.
but the real money is in hardcore gamers
...
What about World of Warcraft? Why is it the most popular MMORPG in history, and one of the most profitable games ever?
And what makes you think that the Hard-Core Gamers are not excited about the Wii? At E3 Nintendo had more playable Wii systems then Sony had PS3s or Microsoft had XBox 360s and yet there was a 3 to 6 hour wait to play one of these systems; and E3 is not a casual gamer event.
What about the online experience - that is where games are moving going forward! You can't even argue that when you look back at the last ten years.
If the past 10 years have told us anything it is that everyone is expecting an online revolution that is never comming; the same 10% to 15% of gamers that wanted to play games online with Unreal Tournament are still the same 10% to 15% of gamers who play games online with Halo 2. The only games that have broken this mold are those where they have opened up online gaming to a more casual market (World of Warcraft, Mario Kart DS).
I don't see any Wii hype anywhere but on Digg and Slashdot.
Try looking somewhere besides TeamXBox or PS3.ign.com
The Wii was declared one of Time Magazines top 5 things that will blow your mind, it has been on the front page of Google News pretty consistently for the past 6 months, and there was a 6 HOUR LINE UP AT E3 TO TRY IT.
Look at Nintendo's dominance of the handheld market in Japan (and the world). Look at Nintendo's appraoch to maketing games to literally every demographic from toddlers to the elderly. Look at all the interest being generated about the Wii (E3). Look at the price differences between the new consoles and Nintendo's. They're taking a very different approach to a next generation system, we can't reliably use past performance to guage what will happen. Especially that far in the future.
i.e.
Those that do not comply will be publicly flogged and generally shunned.
so with this article, can i infer that i'll get a raise and actually be able to afford a PS3, thus leading to it's market dominance? sweet!
The analyst group believes Sony will lead in next-gen market share by 44% in 2011
Yeah sure. If they manage to release it at all. Or PS4 is going to be priced so over the top, $600 would be peanuts for a gaming console (OK, calculate that figure to 2011 economy by adjusting it to inflation blah blah blah).
I've got nothing against Sony and PS3 personally. But come on, $600 for a console and god knows how much EA will charge me for another mind-numbing sequel. Just can't afford it.
to have an extremely profitable console platform that they release most of the A-List titles on. Sega tried this with the Saturn. They ignored developers (actually, they treated them like dirt) and pushed their first party titles to the detriment of 3rd party (in the States, this didn't happen in Japan). It killed the console. Nintendo pulled if off though. To be fair, they didn't do it by being jerks to their 3rd parties, they just can't get too many A-List 3rd parties since there's not enough room to manuever in the Gamecube's install base. Still, the Big N doesn't really care about raw market share, because they can be pretty damn sure that all or most of that 16 percent will buy their software. Sega wanted that, and I guess they got it, but the videogame market was smaller and their share closer to 2% or 3% by the time all was said and done.
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Since there is always degrees of uncertainty when doing a prediction, we can say
PS3 market = 44% +/- Error
Xbox360 market = 40% +/- Error
Will market = 166% +/- Error
where Error = upper bound of difference from reality
In order for them to declare a clear winner for PS3,
44% - Error > 40% + Error
Their Error is less than 2% which is impossible.
They might have some numbers, but they cannot say that PS3 is the clear winner.
At best is that Wii is the loser.
the real money is in hardcore gamers
You have no idea what you're talking about, do you? I'm sure it'll make your head hurt, but let's do some math.
Given conditions:
- In a population (P), let's make a liberal estimate of 1% "hardcore" 39% "casual" and 60% non-gamers.
- A console's lifetime is 5 years.
- "Hardcore" gamers buy 5 games a year.
- "Casual" gamers buy 1 game a year (this accounts for the fact that they're likely to buy 2 or 3 games for the first 2 years and none after that).
- Non-gamers will buy nothing.
- A game console costs $X.
- A game costs $Y.
Over the course of the lifespan of a given console:
- A hardcore gamer will bring in $Y + 25X.
- A casual gamer will bring in $Y + 5X.
- A non-gamer will bring in $0.
Now applying this to a population of 100:
- "Hardcore" gamers bring in $Y + 25X
- "Casual" gamers bring in $39Y + 195X
Now for a population of 1,000,000:
- "Hardcore": $1000Y + 25,000X
- "Casual": $390,000Y + 1,950,000X
It's pretty clear with these numbers (admittedly, they came straight from my ass), that the "hardcore gamer" crowd is worth nothing when compared to the awesome crowds of the unwashed masses. Nintendo is aiming specifically at these "casual" gamers. You mention that "mom and pop may buy a Wii and [1 or 2] games" and that "the average Xbox360 owner already has [4 or 5] games", but what you're missing is that "mom and pop" outnumber "the average Xbox360 owner" by 200:1 or more. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that Nintendo doesn't need hype to sell their console, and that PS and Xbox fanbois need to get used to being the minority. Hey, us Nintendo fanboys had to grow up, now you do too.
Spoken like a man who hasn't investigated the Wii at all.
The Wii remote will be a fad - who honestly wants to wave that around: Yeah, it really looks like he's really waving it around. Oh wait, it's small wrist movements which controls the action, not huge motions.
good luck using it in FPS games: Yeah, nobody liked the controls on Metroid Prime 3.
Whether or not you like it, marketing and hype is what sells consoles. I don't see any Wii hype anywhere but on Digg and Slashdot. Sorry.: Where's the PS3 hype? I see nothing in mainstream media and nothing but negativity from the online media. Where's the X360 hype? I haven't seen any since their launch a year ago. I also haven't seen any compelling reason to buy an Xbox 360 aside from maybe Xbox Live Arcade games (which I played 10 years ago)
Mario sux0rs to me - but Mom or the kid next door can have fun with it if they want: I'm honestly very sorry that you have a complex which prevents you from enjoying video games which are fun because you're afraid they are too "kiddy". If it's any consolation, you'll grow out of that once you graduate 9th grade.
Then again, I guess I shouldn't expect too much out of a user named "XpL1CiT". Have fun in High School kid.
Did someone think about the advantage the Linux-Homebrew-Community will give the PS3 against the XBox360? Every PS3 will arrive with Linux on its Harddisk and Sony will allow Homebrew on it:t ory=9290
http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?s
If this would be true, many Linux-Freaks will push the PS3 to the limits, and even the normal User will profit from this. I think that Linux will help the PS3 to rule the Next-Gen-Market and the PS3 will help Linux to solve the prejudices that many non-Linux-Users have thanks bad hearsay. Linux on the PS3 will by a win-win for both.
I welcome the PS3-Overlords that bring me my Mythtv-Mame-Frontend for the Livingroom.
Well the Wii would have had a good showing, but Nintendo didn't pay The Yankee Group(tm) to do a market study. Remember this is the company that puts out yearly TCO studies supported with bad statistics to show Windows servers are cheaper than Linux/BSD servers. Microsoft pays TYG a lot of money both for this and a lot of other research, and suprise suprise TYG publishes a study that shows Sony is going to lose half it's current market share lead to Microsoft when the PS3 finally ships.
When this study was presented the press should have asked if the millions of PS1, PS2, Xbox and GCs currently in use are going to vanish in thin air all at once or if it will be a long process.
there's 5 years to go before it's possible to check if this prediction is accurate, but at this moment in time it looks like it's not, and by a long way. Disregarding the PS2, the portable consoles and a new offer before 2011 is just plain shortsighted.
For what you'll pay for the PS3, a lot of geeks can upgrade their PCs pretty nicely. That, or build new ones altogether. As far as the PS3 console goes, I'll buy a Wii (maybe), and wait for my PC's hardware to run fast enough to have a 'virtual' PS3. If the PS3 could replace my PC, then I'd look harder at buying.
I predict PS3 will only get 43%, not 44. I based this on some research and stuff.
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Who wants to come over and play my wii with me??? On other news, these people have no clue what their talking about. The Wii will pwn the PS3 because all the little henti/anime people wont be able to share their games with friends or have a good time!
Linux, because a PC is a terrible thing to waste.
I'm an analyst and I say the NEO GEO is making a comeback!
Apparently the first three words of the previous sentence give me unlimited credibility!
SNK Playmore, where's my check?
Who is anyone to say that anything will lead any marked for that amount of time? That is quite an arrogant boast IMHO. Whoever made such claims has balls.
but I really want a wii game that has star wars lightsaber fighting. Maybe I'm alone but I think they could clean up on that game by itself.
I think market share is a silly metric in some ways. Nintendo is the most profitable of all the game companies for the the last several years, despite market share. This is because they dont take a loss on hardware, have tons of highly profitable in house titles, and dont blow billions on marketing. Sony plans on loosing about $1 Billion dollars launching the PS3, and I think Microsoft lost more then that. Who cares about market share, isnt there end goal to turn a profit? Show me the breakdown on profits per system over the next 5 years please.
Just based on my own experience with a large number of gaming friends, the Wii will probably sell like crazy. The gamers I know fall into two groups (1) Plays tons of games for hours at a time (2) Casual gamers that just occassionally want to have fun.
My Group 1 friends own all systems. They have a PC, PSP, a DS Lite, a 360 and a PS2. Interestingly enough, the DS Lite gets the most play it seems (if you discount WOW on the PC that is).
Group 2 friends all universely have a PC, and an X-Box or a PS2 (not both), and most have a DS Lite. Withought exception they plan on getting a Wii, and remain uninterested in PS3 and Xbox 360.
When you consider the number of people who arent hardcore gamers, which system is going to be more popular? The system that appeals to only the hardcore, or the system with broadbased appeal? Maybe systems like the 360 and PS3 are destined to be niche devices for the hardcore gamer, and platforms with broadbased appeal will become more common? Unlikely, but certainly a strong argument against the skewed numbers in the article.
Look, the simple matter is that the DS is selling faster than any system ever. Period. And the PSP is easily the technically superior one, but the DS has it beat on price. Everyone said the touchscreen was a gimmick and that nobody would like it and it's turned out to be one of the most intuitive and novel gaming interfaces produced in the past decade.
The way it looks to me, if Nintendo just keeps on doing for the Wii whatever the hell it's doing with the DS, they're gonna have a success on their hands. Probably not take the #1 spot, but definitely not the complete and utter dismal failure the Yankee Group is predicting.
-=-=-=-=-=
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That might be because the SNES generation of systems were the first systems to have good graphics. They couldn't do photo realistic, or fantastic 3D, but I believe that many games had graphics that looked just like the developer wanted them to. Everything after that was no longer a matter of making the graphics look good, but making the graphics look more realistic, and moving from 2D to 3D.
After the games looked good, a new kind of gammer entered the market. The old school gamers that were more concerned with gameplay than graphics (because there were no good graphics) started getting out numbered by the new gamers that were more concerned with graphics than play. Once this tip happened, the developers started looking at numbers and saw that games with good graphics sold more, and good gameplay didn't affect sales in a significan enough way to matter. After all, good gameplay takes a lot of time and talent. Then when you are done, you still will be taking a gamble on whether you have succeded or not. Good graphics are a much easier defined characteristic, and it is a whole lot easier to find a good 3D artist than it is to find a good game designer.
Basically video games have become a victim of their own success.
I for one, have been thinking about getting a Wii when it comes out. The last console I actually played much of was Nintendo 64... after that, all the "Playstation style" games that came out really really didn't interest me... at all. I don't like long RPGs (Zelda 64 was about the longest RPG I could stand playing), and I don't like stupid sports games. I did play a little bit of Resident Evil 2 when it came out, but that was about it. I'm not into network gaming, either.
But lately I've been digging into my older consoles like Nintendo, Super Nintendo, Genesis, and Master System... and enjoying them more than ever. So I'm hoping that the Wii might have some cool new games for me. I am doubtful I would find much on XBOX or Playstation.
It just feels like the entire industry shifted to types of games I don't like, and it all started with the first Playstation. Or maybe the consolidation of all the developers. There used to be a lot more competition it seems, and smaller developers with original ideas.
But the fact that I of all people am considering buying a Wii, makes me think that other gamers who felt alienated by the Playstation-era crap might also be considering it.
The what? Is exactly what the average person says to me when I tell them about the Wii. As much as you guys like to play/mod up the under-dog; nobody is talking about the Wii besides all the hype a few months ago between the gamers. I live in Southern California and we are a major hub for toys/advertising and fad in the world; people just do not care and whoever can show them more sparkle is the winner at the time of advertising. The gamecube was a laughing stock at my buddies house when he got it because of the kiddie games and I do not think that will change much with the Wii. 'Ma and Pop' are influenced by their son the 'casual gamer'. So minute argument on that part where they represent the majority; except this time the minority are making majority of the arguments for the Wii and they are bleeding out their teeth to win this console war. They know this is a chance for the (underdog)Nintendo to come back and take on the big evil corporations. I know, I know it is too expensive and nobody will buy it. When they start hitting the shelf and start selling left and right what is the argument going to be than?
Microsoft is trying to drive a middle line between the two (and the price reflects it). While they have the shiny graphics and online capability that the hardcore crowd craves, they offer things for the casual gamers (like Geometry Wars and various other things over XBox arcade).
It's hard to really judge how well the Wiimote will work as an FPS tool without having tried it, but I would bet even money that it works even better than a keyboard does; you have more exact control over where you're aiming, and have the potential to aim in a different direction than you are facing.
As far as waving it around, you won't be doing a whole lot of that unless you want to. Most, if not all, games will have a sensitivty setting, so you could do anything from sitting and moving your wrists around slightly to standing and doing a full swing (which will likely be more fun for various games).
And if the idea behind the Wiimote is just a fad, why did Sony suddenly announce motion-sensors for their controller at E3?
Then you must read only Digg and Slashdot. Hype has been all over gaming industry sites and magazines for almost a year now, and a lot of mainstream media is talking about it, too. CNN, MSNBC, and The New York Times have all had multiple articles on the Wii and what it brings to the table.
When Nintendo announced the new name, the internet practically imploded as everyone and their mom first reported the name change, then reported industry reactions to the name change, then reported consumer reaction to the name change, then reported consumer reaction to the reporting of consumer reaction to the name change.
Nintendo does need to start doing some regular marketing (commercials, other ads, an ARG would be nice) if their console is coming out in a scant two or three months, but I'm sure we'll start seeing a blitz after they finally tell us when it's going to be released.
It's sad that you are resorting to a personal attack! Sorry if I like the name "XpLiCiT" but that was taken. You Nintendo / Sony / Microsoft fanboys just get SO excited when someone thinks contrary to you - it's absolutely hilarious. I didn't say Zelda was a stupid game, I just said it lost its appeal to me AFTER I turned 10/11. The Wii is a niche product, no matter how you try and spin it. The super casual gamer is a NICHE MARKET, yes I said it twice. The casual gamer (think PC) still wants to have great GFX and plays FPS / RPGs.
And I will say it again, I don't think the remote will not work well with FPS - not that the joystick is a great alternative either.
The PS3 uses Rambus memory. If you have any shred of nerd decency tell everyone you know that is thinking of buying a PS3 to boycott Sony and get a Wii or 360 instead.
I am becoming gerund, destroyer of verbs.
So, I've never ever in my life played either a playstation, an Xbox, or anything similar in the way of gaming. I am not a market analyst, nor a gaming expert, and am not being paid by Sony or any other vested interest - as I strongly suspect the Yankee group may be...
However, despite my total lack of interest in gaming for the past 20 years, the Wii has caught my eye. I want one. The name is silly, but even so, it actually looks FUN! If it actually delivers as much as it promises then they will soar.
There's a whole non-gamer gaming market out there - just like me. Even girls would buy one if they do an OMG Ponies!!!1!! game (and they should).
If I want one so will others. Don't listen to the Sony and MS shills!
Yeah...I know... never touched a game...I'll be handing in my Geek ID card at the end of the article.
All he did was take cheap, sarcastic shots at the person above him, and called him a kid based on his name!
Sure he cited a few articles, but even those are either from biased sources, or dont back up his assumption of greatness!
Example from the gamespy article:
Maybe you should READ the article before you cite it!
Seems like the buzz these clowns are creating is letting some people get rid of their SNE stock.
chart of SNE's stock for the last month
Notice there has been relatively large volume of trading the past two days (16th & 17th - the report came out on 16th) but the price hasn't moved much during that time. Looks like some people bought up SNE last month, raising price. Now they are using this positive report to get rid of SNE stocks. Well, I'm not at all knowledgeable about stocks, but that's what I thought looking at the chart.
As much as I hate Sony, I must admit that I think these numbers are somehow plausible. Before flaming me, her me out.
First, the PS3 is clearly the most powerfull cosole that will be available. Secondly, 2011 is in 5 years which might be MORE that the new consoles "lifespan" (according to wikipedia, the current cosoles are between 4-6 years old). So depending on how much COMPUTER GAMES evolve during that time, PS3 might be the only one being able to offer something closely similar in 3-4 years. Moreover, by that time it will have become much cheaper. In 5 years from now, Nintendo and maybe even Microsoft might have release a new "next generation" console and the only old "next generation" console stile widely used will be PS3 and XBox360.
Even if these numbers end-up right, I don't think the next few years will closely resemble that. If PS3 ever gets over the other consoles, it might only be at the end of its live (in 3-4 years). Until then, I think we might see PS3 in the 16-25% margin.
Anyway, in the end, what matters isn't the market share of a console that matters, it's the sheer fun you can get out of it. Based on that, I think the Wii will have a very bright future.
Cache this. Bookmark it read-only. It'll be great fun to look back at how wrong they were.
Is like stating that the unborn son of Jim Smith is going to be the next president
I mean, seriously, every article I read in the Wall Street Journal says that that's not true, that in fact it will be Nintendo then Sony then Microsoft - except in the US, where it will be Nintendo then Microsoft then Sony.
Do you think they'll share?
-- Tigger warning: This post may contain tiggers! --
Eh, you realize that GTA 4 will also be featured on 360 at the game's release, and that Square Enix is not entirely focussing on one platform this generation, for apparently 360 will receive new JRPG titles in the near future. Also, Slashdot folks appear to be underestimating the 360's online component, which is excellent and could potentially be a major selling point. Meh, re-reading this post I sound as if I'm a Microsoft zealot, regardless of the fact that I'm typing this via Linux.
Market share != Profit and I think that's a good thing. If you look at the profits compared to the market share on the last generation consoles you'll see that Nintendo was in first place. Because Nintendo doesn't spend as much they don't have to sell as much, or sell for as high of prices, to make a profit.
As for the idea of needing the Wii and either the 360 or PS3 to get all the best games, I'm not sure if I like the idea. That just means this console generation the priority to want 2 or even 3 consoles has increased; it was already a high priority last generation. It seems to get the RPGs that I love I'll need the PS3, but will still want the Wii for the new variety of games it'll have. As for the 360 I'm not sure what games they make, and M$ doesn't need anymore of my money.
I could always just get a Wii and goad one of my friends into getting a PS3. I already have a friend with a 360 and have played it enough to be happy. Ive also went half and half on RPGs with friends before. Who else is considering this option, working as a commune to play all the games?
"To be is to do." --Socrates
"To do is to be." -- Aristotle
"Do-Be-Do-Be-Do..." --Sinatra
It seems to me as if the pointing device and joystick (similar to a mouse and keyboard) would be superior to a gamepad in a FPS. It sure looks nicer than having to move two analog sticks or using an analog stick and shoulder buttons (with fixed looking up and down speeds.)
it seems to me Sony's biggest competitor will be the huge backlog of ps2 games. I mean, I've got nearly 50 ps2 games I'm dying to play, and they just keep making more (Valkyrie Profile 2, Rouge Galaxy, Flatout 2). I can't justify buying a ps3 until I get caught up on my ps2 games.
Hi! I make Firefox Plug-ins. Check 'em out @ https://addons.mozilla.org/en-US/firefox/addon/youtube-mp3-podcaster/
"What about the online experience - that is where games are moving going forward!"
Maybe that's why the Wii is supposed to have free online play, hmm ?
Besides, I don't want to play games with even 1/10 of the douches that play on Xbox Live. It's like a haven for the same types of morons I always encountered in Counterstrike back in college.
who finds it uncomfortable, even painful, to hold his hand in the position you hold a remote for any lenght of time? A gamepad doesn't make me bend my wrist. Then again, maybe the wii-mote won't really, I haven't tried it yet. I remember as a kid seeing the 3 button Genesis gamepad and wondering how I'd push button's A and C at the same time, only to find out that games (wisely) didn't make me :).
Hi! I make Firefox Plug-ins. Check 'em out @ https://addons.mozilla.org/en-US/firefox/addon/youtube-mp3-podcaster/
44+40+16 = 100 now what about the other game units that are produced and sold worldwide, like the DSLite or PSP? Oh, you idiots totally forgot about that, right?
This article is pure FUD, and should be tagged as such. Speculation or not they totally fail to do what any GOOD group would do and consider other factors.
Still waiting on Serviscope_minor to wake up to fucking reality and realize that Jessica Price isn't going to fuck him.
Why would a hardcore (or any gamer, or anyone at all) buy 25 consoles and 1 game over 5 years? Check your variables. Y=games, X=consoles.
If history repeats itself, why can't we study the future?
I predict that you are 35% right, 84% wrong and 29% just a little off...
Did anyone have to dial a 1-900 number for that prediction? The world was once predicted to be flat, and people once thought Sony was cool.
I'm sure it will gain market share, but it's going to start off flat. After the first price break (they'll need many)they'll get a decent boost. After Blu-Ray follows UMD, Sony stock will go up... in smoke.
See, anyone can make predictions! The Xbox 360 has some potential to escape the bad press that usually follows M$ around. The Wii is innovative enough to really blow some minds. It's either going to do really well, or fall flat.
Personally, I've owned the PS2, Gamecube, and the Xbox. I gave away my PS2 and still have the other two systems to compete with each other. Ninja Gaiden was the last thing I played on the Xbox, and I wish there had been a Gamecube version.
PS: That is what part of the alphabet would look like if the letters "Q" and "R" were removed.
If we restrict the market to the living room tv-attached traditional console market (and not mobile) it's feasible.
Besides, as you say, this is speculation: ~44 + ~40 + ~16 = ~100, *give or take*. Even if the relative share numbers are only 5% out, that still leaves ~7% for the "rest of the market".
Or maybe you didn't think about that?
I'll reserve judgement until I see products on shelves. And even then, shit console or not, Sony has a hell of a mind-share amongst the non-technical-politics masses. That mind-share will take quite some time to turn around by Nintendo or Microsoft.
I run: Windows, OS X, Linux, FreeBSD. Just because you have a hammer, doesn't mean everything is a nail.
I hate going through an endless string of blogs only to find a dead-end. From the horse's mouth:
Yankee Group - News Releases
I think the Nintendo DS success clearly demonstrated that the super casual gamer is not a niche market.
I'll never understand this arguement... I already have a PS2, it plays my PS2 games fine. How is this a selling point for the PS3 except for to the 3 people who never bought a PS2?
Because then you can get a PS3 and remove the PS2, instead of getting a second box and having to switch things like video and audio. It's actually a hurdle for other systems to overcome as well when so many PS2's are already in homes. There is of course a core market that already has multiple consoles that this will not effect, but it does have an impact in the larger market.
Also, my own PS2 is none too happy with some of the newer blue discs - specifically Star Wars Legos. I borrowed a friends PS2 to play through the game but would be happy to get a PS3 and be able to play it at any time, I've been holding off replacing my launch PS2 in anticipation the PS3 would cover that.
Here I agree with you, completely. Games are #1. The PS3 line-up seems strong, I'm sure it will do well.
Just one note here is that the larger capacity of the Blu-Ray drive does make possible some forms of games with more or higher quality FMV that would not be as good otherwise, and thus can lead to an increase in desireably games across the whole gaming population (Japanese RPG's, I'm looking at you!).
"There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
Then again we can't expect any reasonable Nintendo discussion from someone with the nick "Wind_Walker". Have fun playing with your Wii fanboy.
I'm sorry but after the whole Laura DiDio debacle, I wouldn't trust anything coming out of the Yankee Group.
The PS3 is far too expensive for almost 50% of the market to go out and buy it. I think it will 1. Xbox 360 2. Wii 3. PS3
Sony's weak end PS3 is only $100 more than Microsoft's high-end XBox360. This would make sense if the low-end PS3 had the same basic features of the high-end XBox360, but it doesn't. It would be just as fair to say that Sony's PS3 costs $300 more than the XBox 360 system (PS3 with harddrive vs. 360 'core').
And is the PS3 delivering free online gameplay? I know the Wii is, but I haven't heard the same from Sony.
If you are in the market for a Blu-Ray player *and* you want to play games, the PS3 may be a great choice. But it isn't cheaper than the XBox360, it isn't even close.
Spell cheek you've failed me four the last thyme!
Marketting survey's are so irrelivant right now. The Wii is just such a huge wildcard, it's virtually impossible to predict what's going to transpire in the first 3 months after console release, and even harder to predict what the market will be like after the first year. No other generation launch can top this one for pure strangeness and unexpected variables. Two consoles are slated to be launched within the same month, as well as a metric ton of best selling game series (Zelda, Metroid, Final Fantasy XII, among others)... this alone has never happened before. Probably the closest console launch I've seen to date was between the GameCube and the XBox which were, what, 6 months apart? The turbulance that will insue from such drastically apposing marketting models during that month will be the most interesting to watch since the dawn of the mass market video game, itself. Any number of unexpected situations may arise:
Now, I think it's unlikely that the PS3 is going to see groundbreaking success (which is really what it needs to combat a fully functioning Microsoft and a groundbreaking Nintendo), I do think that Sony's chances of doing well in this generation are pretty slim, but you never know. And as I said, the turmoil caused by the first few months of two consoles being released virtually similtaniously is going to be hard to predict.
Multiplayer Gaming (defined): Sitting around, discussing single-player games with my friends, at the bar.
the real money is in hardcore gamers
Are you sure?
but Im gonna buy a PS3, and I now a bunch of not-so-rich guys who will. I hate Sony as a corporation(love their products), and the brand name price is starting to get a wee bit over the top, but I'm a goner this time. We'll probably go for the cheap option, and our reasons for throwing away $600 are simple:
The Games.
Konami makes amazing games. There are people willing to buy a PS3 for Metal Gear Solid 4 alone. The managers at Sony made a mistake with the price and are trying to be old-school with the controllers, but the games imprison our decisions. When WII games can promise the same quality, Sony will lose out for good, but the war is still on.
Note: Like everyone else, I agree the "analysis" is 100% pure cow manure.
How about f***ing Time Magazine ?
If that isn't hype, what is?
In North America they launched 3 Days apart.
I agree about the launch line-up though. They did not have a 'bankable killer app' at launch. Halo turned out to be that app, but it wasn't prior established. The best GameCube had on launch day was Luigi's Mansion (and Smash brothers a few weeks later) but these were still no where near as bankable as Final Fantasy, or Zelda.
Interesting thing is that Sony's killer app, for America, around the release time of the PS3, isn't even a PS3 game, it's Final Fantasy XII for the PS2. The PS3 has no large release titles, to my knowledge. So a huge percentage of Sony's customers are going to be rushing out to play a PS2 game, when Sony would like for them to be buying PS3s. Square's also banking on the PS3s success, probably almost as much as Sony. I wonder if there will be attempts to keep the advertising for FFXII down so as not to partially eclipse the PS3s release.
Nintendo has Zelda and Metroid, which are approximately around the same sized franchise, but they're being released on their new system, so that just draws more people into buying the Wii.
If I had been Sony, a year ago, I would have pumped money at Square to fucking finish FFXIIs localization, and get it out well in advance of the PS3s release. I mean, come on, what the hell are they thinking?
BTW: I had no idea about the GameCube and XBox release being within 3 days of eachother. Still, both consoles had minimal launch lineups (although Smash Bros became a runaway hit later in the 'cube's lifecycle), so early adoption wasn't really as much of a huge issue.
Multiplayer Gaming (defined): Sitting around, discussing single-player games with my friends, at the bar.
I don't like Sony, but I don't want them to tank.
Having Microsoft as pretty much the sole owner of the console space is a scary thought.
Wow, you guys should look into communicating with a female for the first time. I enjoy video games as much as the next guy, but "They have a PC, PSP, a DS Lite, a 360 and a PS2", damn. Try dropping some of that cash on some pimple cream and venture into the sunlight.
//TODO: Insert catchy phrase
Everyone rants and raves about the Wii remote, and how original it is, and how great Nintendo are for doing something so original, and, well kooky.
I wish to enlighten people here - the Wii won't be much more powerful than the PS2, and the PS2 already has loads of fun and kooky games. Look at Sing Star, Buzz, and my personal favourite, Guitar Hero. So tell me again, why would I go out and buy a Wii?
"The PS3 will be seen as the more mature console "
By whom? 14 year old kids? They're the only ones who care about that kind of thing.
But anyway, I guess your analysis seems reasonable until you realize tha 14 year old kids don't have $600 for a console. And mummy isn't going to kick in 6 bills to make junior happy.
I'm basing this on $250 for a PSP (which appeals to "mature" gamers ) which sold ummmm... not enough to launch UMD movies, and the PSP seems well positioned to uh... well... it seems like its uh.... actually, it doesn't seem well positioned to do anything.
Or look at the original XBox. It was geared at the "mature" gamer. And it did...uh.... well. It was great for modders to use to "steal" Xbox games by loading them on the hard drive. But not enough to actually make any money.
So what have we learned:
1) Being labelled as the "mature" console is worse financially than being labelled as the "kiddie" console.
2) The "mature" label on a console ensures it will fail.
3) Nintendo seems to make money no matter what
4) Nintendo knows the hand-held gaming market better than anybody
5) When a console maker overprices a game system it fails and pretty spectacularly.
Now it's not guaranteed the PS3 will fail. But all the signs say the PS3 may be the equivalent of the Andrea Doria. It's not guaranteed the Wii will "win" the console wars. But it's almost guaranteed it will do reasonably well. The Xbox 360? Ummm, it looks like the Xbox all over again, and I own all of the consoles. ALL of them.
Oh... and you keep labelling the PS3 a "mature" console. It's like putting another hole in the bow of a ship taking on water.
I dont think it will be released till 2011
The greatest revenge in life is massive success.
Yeah, Sony's got a long road ahead. Both MGS4, and FF: XIII will be out later in the PS3's life (IE: post Christmas 2006) and from what I can see They don't have any compelling exclusives in their launch line up, and the Wii does. Consider that with the price differential... I think it will be less dificult to buy a PS3 (if you are so inclined) than a Wii.
I remember when the PS2 had been announced / its impending release, it was the console everyone was talking about. Ditto with xbox, it had a lot of talk too. Being your typical /. nintendo fanboy i was like omg gamecube is the best!11 but lo and behold, PS2 sold the best.
Lately when i've heard people talking about consoles, its always been the wii. I have one friend that sheepishly bought an xbox 360, but i havent heard anyone talk about them at all other than that. You could say interpretation is a little predjudice, considering i study CS now and most nerds tend to be nintendo fanboys, but i think thus far most of the people i've talked to have been students from all areas. As for the Nintendo 'kiddy' image, i don't see it, nor do any of my friends. It's more like me: "hey lets play super smash bros!" friend x: "nahh tekken!"
First of all, the guess that 10% of systems were sold on eBay was correct.
Except that the story I linked to was dated December 2nd!!!! The volume went up from there as Chirstmas approached and prices stayed high...
Next, you have to consider statistical pricing for what people are willing to pay. Of the ones not sold on eBay, how many were sold in VERY expensive bundles? quite a few.
Of the remainder, then you consider that if 40k people are willing to pay around $800, then how does the curve get as the prices get lower? $300 less is a HUGE price difference and would obviously attract a great deal more consumers, not to mention that Sony also has a very strong established brang and knows how to market.
The eBay sales are a very good indicator of a much larger market willing to pay $500 for a good console.
As always though, this result is tempered by games - a PS3 launhed with no games would have few sales indeed. But a number of launch or near-launch titles look promising enough that the system will probably do well.
"There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
The DS has been dominating in Japan, yes, but not so much in the rest of the world. Looking at the May 2006 NPD sales we see PSP > GBA > NDS. Looking at the April 2006 NPD sales we see GBA > PSP > NDS. Yes, the NDS has led the pack for the past two months (thanks to the DS Lite) it's still nowhere near the boost that Japan saw from the DS Lite.
Japan is simply a different market. The most extreme example would be the XBox 360 (which has performed weaker so far than the original XBox in Japan, yet has a rather intimidating market share in North America--enough that it will probably keep the lead through 2007 regardless of how strong the competition). Yes: I do expect the Wii to take Japan. In North America, however, I expect it to be initially third, with a chance (but no guarantee) of changing that depending on what kind of word of mouth it gets.
This is for video, not for gaming. The Blue-Ray is the ONLY high capacity optical disc that will be used for console gaming in the next 5 years, which gives it a serious advantage when you're talking about 30 gig games developed for PS3 vs 8 gig games of the same title developed for the Xbox 360 or Wii. Of course, the native format also playing high-def movies and having HDMI connectors are only iceing on the cake for the largest segment of gamers (21-29) who could give a shit about paying an extra hundred bucks. The PS3 is going to own the living room.
Any fool can criticise, condemn, and complain, and most fools do. - Benjamin Franklin
The PS3 is going to cost 5 to 6 bills, probably on the upper end. And this Yankee Group says it's going to DOMINATE? Are they joking? Even the Japanese think that thing is too expensive Here in America, with as many people that complain about gas prices cutting into their budget, are they going to be rushing to put a $600 toy that doesn't even come with any games under the tree for Christmas? Please. Even successful 30-somethings will probably give pause at the sight of the price tag.
IMHO, the Wii is going to sit at the top. Yeah it's a dumb name, but with its price point and back-to-basics approach to gaming as opposed to PC shovelware is what will set it apart from the crowd. There is one gambit, though - Microsoft's general release of the SDK for the Xbox 360. I think that people will do some pretty awesome stuff with that, and I'm certainly interested in seeing how that will pan out. One thing's for sure, either way it goes I doubt the PS3 will have a significant share of the market.
-R
Q: Why is starting a post in the Subject: line irritating?
Shutting down free speech with violence isn't fighting fascism. It IS fascism!
This entire study, obviously, is based on simply the PS2/XBOX/GameCube sales. The GameCube was not selling so hotly, although I have to admit I love mine to death. They simply took the numbers and speculated the growth based on them and the current view of kids in the market (currently, it's the 'PS2 is awesome' because they are idiots). I think that since these guys aren't in the industry, though, they shouldn't necessarily have a ground to speak on.
I swear, idiots using old data on almost unrelated consoles (except backwards compatibility).
These guys clearly have their heads up their asses. PS3 is too expensive to compete with the Wii.
I predict the Wii is going to herald a new age in console gaming.
Disclaimer: I haven't owned a console since the Intellivision. I'm strictly a PC gamer, and I'm considering purchasing a Wii.
Developers are already dropping off due to the cost of creating for the console. None of the major dev houses, of course, but it's happening.
Really, I haven't heard of any.
Now that we are on equal footing with claims that have no proof behind them, can you provide links to back up your statement?
Besides, it's the major developers that are going to make or break the systems, the indie titles are desirable for my needs but are not the primary thing that will draw the mass market. EA for instance is thinking of dropping PSP development, and that would be a harsh blow to that system which already was struggling to find a market.
"There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
First I would like to say that I am neutral when it comes to what system will dominate this new "next gen" war. While I believe it is possible for the PS3 to do well, this study is perhaps negligent to the current state of the PS3 and the actions Sony is doing.
First and foremost the PS3 and the Wii have to compete against the already established base that Microsoft's Xbox 360 has. Since the 360 has a year behind them, it will be difficult for either to convince players to get their system. However, Microsoft has pretty much conceded that the Nintendo Wii may be the winner based on their comments.
Secondly, the study does not take into account the state of the PS3. In my opinion, the PS3 maybe a still birth based on all that has been published about it. The cost of the system, the Cell Processor not matching up to it's alleged power, the inability to play used games, and the attempt to push the Blu Ray technology all do not paint a very optimistic picture for the PS3. That is not to say however that the Wii is perfect. Nintendo is notorious for making promises but failing to deliver too. Still, Sony has a lot of problems for the PS3 and no attempt has been made to fix them it seems.
Sony also has a major attitude problem as well. Their own ego has blocked their ability to remember that the PS3 has the same hallmarks as another system. Remember the Neo Geo, Sony? The Neo Geo was a powerhouse and it was the same song and dance the PS3 is trying to do. I guess Sony forgot the ending of this story. Nobody was willing to spend $700 for a system then fork over $200 for a game. Kas's claim is that you are getting a lot for what you pay for. Considering that the Wii lets you play old school games for download, an online service with Wi Fi connections for FREE, and has many great starting titles being only a fraction of what the PS3 will cost, I think you are getting more there instead. This is of course if Nintendo comes through this time...
I know I said in a previous posting that Sony has forgotten what has got them this far. That is the GAME PLAYER. This attempt to push technology but deliver subpar games with a hefty price tag will do the system in quickly. Just because they did well with the PSX and got lucky with the PS2 WILL NOT guarantee them success with the PS3. If all they got for the PS3 so far is "Ridge Racer" then they may as well abort this and try again from square one. To me, Sony is burning gamers and developers with poor design tools and expects everybody to take it. Come 2011, I strongly believe that the PS3 will be called "Neo Geo 2006". I think this site says it all: http://luthorownsplanes.ytmnd.com/
__________
"There are lots of things I do well! I drink coffee, I play games, and..... Ok, I think I need to update my list..."
Don't buy anything from that root kit installing piece of $hi* company!
As for the FPS comment.. Well when the hell did a console do FPS well? (STFU Halo fans before you even start). PCs are always better than consoles at FPS and RTS because they were more or less designed for their unique controls.
I think the Wii is going to make an FPS truly playable on a console. Using the remote to point and shoot? What could be more natural than that? I think too many people are hung up on using a mouse to look around and shoot.
A lot of people are also forgettting about the downloadable NES/SNES/N64 games that you can play on the system. That alone is going to bring a lot of people back. I can't wait to download a couple games I played but didn't own on those systems.
"Is life so dear, or peace so sweet, as to be purchased at the price of chains and slavery?" - Patrick Henry
They certainly were and are! They still charge the highest royalties out of all three console manufacturers (though they did reduce it a bit during this last generation). During the N64 era they wouldn't let third party developers create their own microcode until late in its lifecycle, forcing most of them to use the absolutely terrible stock SGI microcode (which offered something like 30% of the console's performance that second party devs like Rare were able to use). Months after E3 they still haven't informed third parties how they can use the speaker in the Wiimote. And of course their dictatorial NES rules are well known - my favorites are how devs that worked on NES titles weren't allowed to develop for any other competing consoles, and that (non-Nintendo) publishers were limited to only releasing a few games a year. Let's not forget what a bitch cartridges were for third parties either! These are just a few choice examples, mind you - Nintendo's history of screwing over third party devs is lengthy. It even effectively created the Playstation!
Now I do believe they are probably improving on this for the Wii, but it's important to not forget that the only reason Nintendo cares about third party support is that it helps them get a slightly larger audience to sell their own games to. They aren't like MS and Sony, which make the bulk of their profits off licensing and helping third parties effectively get rich. Nintendo is all about selling Nintendo games.
When Namco-Bandai Vice President Shin Unozawa recently said the following, he wasn't just talking about Nintendo making great games:
(Keep in mind this is specifically about the Japanese market. Young kids aren't the main users in the West by any means.)
(And Sega was pretty hostile to third parties on the Saturn even in Japan. They were fond of keeping various performance tricks secret, among other things. There's a reason so many old Sega and Nintendo devs jumped ship to the more friendly Sony and now MS.)
There is no excellent beauty that hath not some strangeness in the proportion. -- Francis Bacon
As for price, it's only $100 more than the 360
That's $200 more, thank you very much. Or should we compare the "core" 360 system to the "premium" PS3 system and say it's really $300 more?
No, Nintendo is going to clean house this round, and Sony is going to get its ass handed to it. Microsoft is going to get the market that wants a more powerful console, whereas Sony is going to have to settle for the (tiny) number of people willing to pay 2-3 times as much for a system just so they can play the next Metal Gear Solid or Final Fantasy games. Blu Ray is a non issue at this point, as most people do not have big HDTV sets to make it worthwhile to spend the extra money.