Slashdot Mirror
Hannu H. Kari Gives The Internet 2 More Years
erick99 writes "Dr. Hannu Kari says the Internet will will collapse in 2006 as reported in an article on ARS Technica. Yes, this is the same Dr. Kari who has predicted doom before, but it is still an entertaining read and there is more than a grain of truth in his reasoning." Reader Titney writes adds a couple of excerpts from an article on NewsRoom Finland: "The entire system will crumble to bits as the sheer bulk of rubbish circling around in the net exceeds the public pain threshold. ... When the internet is no longer operational for business purposes, one has to time warp back 10 to 20 years and make do without information networks"
Until Netcraft confirms it I wont believe it. I'll back check in two years at http://www.netcraft.com to verify his findings.
-- a 2006 web odyssey
... but I'm gonna hold my breath!
...I have a bridge for sale.
"Accept that some days you are the pigeon, and some days you are the statue." - David Brent, Wernham Hogg
yeah. two grains, then.
Take off every sig. For great justice.
You forgot BSD.
The entire system will crumble to bits as the sheer bulk of rubbish circling around in the net exceeds the public pain threshold. ...
Yeah, but when that happens we'll more likely timewarp back fifty or one hundred years. Spammers, virus copiers and script kiddies will simply be hunted down for sport and tortured on live TV. The penalty for being an idiot on the internet will be public beheading.
I'm begining to look forward to 2006 now.
Does anyone notice that the beggining word(s) of each line get chopped off?
I'm running in Mozilla. Is it happening for everyone?
I've always wondered whether a story that mentions Slashdot in the subject would bring on a recurisve slashdotting that would result in the ultimate destruction of the internet.
Well, it's worth a try anyway
Please read my Canon EOS tech blog at http://www.everyothershot.com
Yeah yeah, I'm sure the internet is going to
*CARRIER LOST*
... Imminent death of the net predicted. Film at Eleven.
I predict that within one year, someone smart enough to know better will predict the demise of the Net within 2 years. Can I have my "Professional Futurologist" badge now?
Athletic Scholarships to universities make as much sense as academic scholarships to sports teams.
BSD is dead and now this....
I thought the standard for technology predictions was five (5) years.
"There is nothing to see here. Move along."
It's started already!
For those who didn't RTFA (like the editor), he was indeed predicting the end of the internet back in 2001. However, he was predicting that there were five years left. So he's been consistent on 2006.
Not that he's, yanno, sane or anything, but at least he's consistent.
[insert witty sig here]
When the internet is no longer operational for business purposes...
And here I thought that the only businesses doing fairly well on the IntraWeb these days were pr0n publishers.
Hey, you and I *both* know that they're the ones that drive technology these days.
Boost his page rank, why don't you, you bastards.
...we all get fiber in heaven with no caps.
----
WWJD...For a Klondike Bar?
-- Thou hast strayed far from the path of the Avatar.
For example, I used to enjoy debates on newsgroups, but last I checked (several years ago), they were just full of trash. The topics I was interested in had been largely abandoned by those that were actually knowledgable in the fields due in great part to this.
Another example is Yahoo message boards. Here we see what the lack of pretty much any moderation entails. Spam infested, crapflood infested, it's pretty difficult to get any meaningful discussion there.
I think what will happen is that there will be heavier moderation and more stringent entrance requirements for various online forums. The Internet will still function, it just won't be as open as it once was.
Then Kari added, "If the Internet doesn't die on its own in two more years, I'm gonna shoot it myself." He then went on to suggest that BSD is dying, that flying cars are a decade away and that Longhorn will be released by 2007.
Unknown host pong.
does this guy seriously think people will just sit by and let this happen, even assumning it's possible? I think it's safe to say at the first sign of problems around 6 gillion nerds world wide would start working on fixes and sending them to anyone who might possibly give a damn. Given the number of users, even IF this is a problem, it could be solved quickly.
Simply put, the Internet won't disappear until there is something to replace it. I can't imagine going back to BBSes!
Slashdot's first reaction to VMware
No, one has to create VPNs and block all access that doesn't come from the inside.
Or you could use dedicated lines that have no connection to the Internet.
You have two hands and one brain, so always code twice as much as you think!
That was the worst story on slashdot in quite some time.
.
I have to concur with the good doctor that things are getting worse. And they seem to be getting worse faster than fixes are going into place.
Interesting times . .
-Peter
Is Hanu the Finnish version of "Harry" or "Hari"
Liquor
Sanity is a highly overrated commodity.
Is this like the predication that we'd run out of IP addresses in the late 1990's. We all know that happened. Wait, no it didn't. Humans fixed the problem with private networks and NATing. In the process, they improved security and sanctity of their networks.
It's a funny thing, networks. You see, since humans control them, they make changes and adjustments in response to the needs of the network. Thus the network grows, adapts, and becomes a more powerful entity.
That being said, there are two things I wish I could exorcise from the net: Spam and viruses. These two creatures are responsible for more useless traffic than just about anything else. It would also be nice if protocols like GNUTella died or were fixed. The number of useless packets generated by such protocols is amazing.
Javascript + Nintendo DSi = DSiCade
Today the good professor warned that the fun bus could all come to a crashing halt in less than two years because of steady increases in everything that makes the Internet such a pain in the rear. Viruses, trojans, spam, and security flaws
I suffer from none of those things. Never have. And I use both Linux and WinXP. A good portion of my friends, family and coworkers don't suffer either.
Basically, this guy is saying that the Internet in its current form won't be around in five years.
I have a saying: "It doesn't matter until it affects the common man - then it will get fixed." It does not matter what "it" is - as long as "it" only affects a small number of folks "it" won't get fixed.
Look back at the old DOS days - when the 640K memory limit only affected high-end users, it didn't matter. When Joe Average started to bump his head, the problem was fixed (largely by the introduction of Windows enhanced mode). Look at spam - now that it affects just about everyone, moves are being made to fix it.
Yes, in five years we the Internet as we know it today won't exist - open SMTP proxies won't be allowed to exist, users will have up-to-date virus protection and firewalls, etc.
Guess what - the Internet as it existed five years ago doesn't exist, either!
www.eFax.com are spammers
It was made public recently on #slashchat that mboning is actually slashdot subscriber garcia.
"Eh Marsha, your mother just had our VoIP number slashdotted. We just have to go ex-directory!"
I predict another five years for the Internet in its present form
I agree absolutely. If I saw a glimpse today of the net in five years I probably wouldn't recognize it. It is a cosstantly evolving organism. In 1999 I wouldn't recognize the net today.
Will it die? No, of course not. Games, porn, mail, chat, music, p2p, that's not going anywhere.
Business? Will businesses need to re-address the way they do business? More security, VPNs maybe, perhaps even leaving the net for other Information Systems solutions? Perhaps. If I knew the answer I would be rich in 5 years.
What the next big thing? Who knows. I never thought in 1999 that music downloads for money could be successful.
"You cannot find out which view is the right one by science in the ordinary sense." - C.S. Lewis on Intelligent Design
time warp back 10 to 20 years and make do without information networks
He, sorry bub, but Fidonet was created 20 years ago, in 1984, and it quickly became a worldwide information network (1985).
I think Fidonet was (and still is) an information network, and not a bad one at that...
The right to offend is far more important than the right not to be offended. (Rowan Atkinson)
Well, I give Hannu H. Kari credibility 2 more years.
This is actually why search engine technology has improved and still needs to continue doing so.
Yes, the web is full of rubbish but if I don't see it I don't really care. There was a time about a year ago googling any product would result only in third-party redirects to ebay auctions that expired years ago. That has changed. (Thank god for pagerank).
I seem to remember the posts of doom from right around the Dot Bomb...and thinking *then* that the 'net and the way that we use it must change and evolve in order for it to remain functional. In it's simplest, that is what it's all about. And it is evolving, but I don't think it is quickly enough to spell doom in (really) a year, maybe 18 months. With the advent of new browser technologies (Return of the Browser Wars), user education, and language evolution, I see the whole of the Internet becoming a different beast altogether sometime in the next 3-4 years. All of our children who have grown up with knowledge and taught to think in strings of text rather than 1800 page novels, may well revolutionize how you and I utilize our tools. To them, the 'net is a dinosaur... just imagine what it can do with another 65 years (million is way too big of a scale for this comparison! :P).
Sorry man... the Internet pooped on me.
I know that a lot of our clients and feiends are using e-mail less and less. They are finding that they are buried under a growing deluge of spam and virus laden messages, and are moving back to telephone calls, faxes, and even paper letters.
We are lucky in having an ISP with superb and effective spam filtering, so only see a few dozen messages a day that fit that description.
Likwise we're very vigilant about virus protection and use a firewall, so have thus far avoided any virus infection.
Still, most casual users aren't at this level, and they are finding that the Internet is less useful than it used to be.
I don't hink that the Internet will collapse, but I can see a time when we start seeing casual users abandon it as more trouble than it's worth.
And just to throw in a very frigtening idea, what happens when one or more spammers successfully sue ISPs for blocking their mail? Even if it can't be done domestically, various international trade agreements may support such and action.
Three Squirrels
Another "advertising" story submission.
The editors should've known that Hanu H. Kari just wanted to hype his new "time warp" machine.
using System.Awesome;
Well, the public telephone network suffered from the problem of unsolicited bulk marketers calling people during dinner.
It still survives. But it did have a few adjustments made to it.
- CallerIDs to screen calls.
- Answering machines to screen calls. Turning off the ringers to remove the sense of urgency that used to be ascribed to incoming phone calls.
- Legislation for donotcall.gov.
- Paying the telephone company more for unlisted landlines.
- Not giving out phone numbers to any entry point to the direct marketing industry databases.
- Moving to cell phones that are automatically unlisted.
I guess I see the internet just evolving around the problems in multiple ways.I hate to say goodbye to anonymity in email that is abused by spammers because it has a special place for whistleblowers. But perhaps blog postings can still serve that purpose.
"Provided by the management for your protection."
"Can anyone tell me what the Internet was and how it almost destroyed humankind in the year 2007?" - school teacher Debbie
If you had super powers, would you use them for good, or for awesome?
While posting this, I thought I saw a little chicken running around screaming something about the sky falling or something stupid like that!
I didn't RTFA, but I have noticed it has been going downhill. Yesterday, I helped a friend get an XP box online, and within 10 minutes of hooking it up to the dsl modem, there was popup and spyware everywhere. IE wasn't even open. adaware didnt help, as every reboot came with more crap. There was not enought time to download the appropriate patches. How on earth is Joe Public going to be able to install Windows (admit it, that is the OS it'll be) if the internet is laden with so much crapware going around?
This is not a windows slam, windows boxes are the target for this kind of crap just because they are the vast majority out there.
BTW i think it worked after enabling the SP1 firewall and then dowloading SP2 & then firefox.
When people and programs automatically accept incoming messages only from signed correspondants who match their contact database, all the rest of the messages will be treated as spam. The Net will lose its youthful trust, and much of its optimism and openness to change, which will inhibit innovation and social growth. But it won't die. It will grow old, bitter and rich.
--
make install -not war
Cool, most of us will still be around.. most of the AOLuser won't though! (C'mon remember, that used to be fun, lets bash AOL)
anyone notice that the beggining word(s) of each line get chopped off?
running in Mozilla. Is it happening for everyone?
, yes I have noticed that
are bad for your health.
*cough*Mathus*cough*
Just as a broken clock is right twice a day, eventually some doomsayer is going to be right, but I'm going to go out on a limb and say it won't be Dr. Kari, and it will not be in 2006.
Information wants to be anthropomorphized.
humming birds are not supposed to physically be able to fly as well :)
Don't Tread on OpenSource
"We cannot stick our heads in the bush and tell ourselves that everything is OK.
In every case where I've stuck my head in the bush things have turned out just fine (slurp).
Proverbs 21:19
This is what happens when you use a Mac (Apple has been dying for years) with a BSD-dying-for-years-based OS and live in a country where it goes dark for months on end. It infects your thinking. You start watching film noir, dressing in black and predicting the death of everything from the Internet to your neighbor's dog.
Lighten up already. If the Internet takes as long to die as either Apple or BSD, we're safe well into the next generation or two.
-Charles
Learning HOW to think is more important than learning WHAT to think.
And it didn't happen then, either.
-- Jim Crigler In 1937, I began, like Lazarus, the impossible return. -- Whittaker Chambers
When people first started dying in car accidents we didn't stop making cars, we put safety features in them. I am sure there were idiots that thought the car would go away too... This guy has no vision and shouldn't be listened to.
"Keep on Tuxin"
Some of us were remembering the the M7 Loma Prieta quake exactly 15 years ago Monday. 10% of Stanford buildings were condemned, several freeways collapsed, but the InterNet went humming along. People used it send email when the phones were dead and exchange earthquake data. At that time the net was more concentrated in the US with root servers in D.C. and Silicon Valley.
Doesn't the article itself qualify? It and the subsequent discussion are a total waster of bandwidth. Oh dear, I am contributing to it myself! must... stop... now...
If my last name were Kari, I would surely name my kid Harry. Okay, so it's off-topic, so what?
according to his reasoning, the world will come to an end because of child molesters, war mongers, theives and everything evil I cannot think of right now. This guy needs to visit some temples in asia to learn about Ying and Yang.
did you forget to take your meds?
There's crap on the net? No way! I've never seen any. Oh, well, I only use it for news, work, movies, reviews, and buying stuff. I don't really spend every waking moment going to Joe Bob's Home Page with only a dancing Tea Kettle on it. Sorry, guess I just don't see the crap since I avoid those places. Sucks for me, eh?
Guess what - the Internet as it existed five years ago doesn't exist, either!
really??
IRC,ftp, usenet,telnet, email, hell even gopher
is still around and being used.
I'd say the internet from over 10 years ago is still there alive and kicking just fine.
just because you dont use anytihng other than a web browser to access the "internet" does not mean it's not ther eand still being used.
Do not look at laser with remaining good eye.
... When the internet is no longer operational for business purposes, one has to time warp back 10 to 20 years and make do without information networks
Perhaps the author remembers when the telephone and the postal mail services, both got so flooded with junk that all business quit using them, entirely, several years ago.
I also remember them becoming flooded with junk, but I don't remember when business quit using them.
And if the author does remember business quitting to use these services, what does he think we will return to ??? "giddyup, trigger" ???
What exactly does malware have to do with this? Malware has always been an issue, internet or not. Spam is the only thing that is a problem and with that, I think it is only a matter of time before anti-spamming efforts get serious. Honestly, cracking down on the porn industry would probably cripple much of the spam out there. Another thing that would help would be to make spammers liable for $0.01 per email they send with no ability to declare bankrupcy. That way if they send a billion messages and are just a mom and pop shop, they still owe $10,000,000 and they will keep paying that off for life if necessary.
Click here or a puppy gets stomped!
ssssss
is this one of them?
Just how the @#$@#$@# am I suppose to read /. ?!?!?!?!?
.. hehe .. Ya right buddy
Bloody Internet doom
From Sealab 2021 Debbie: Now who can tell me what the internet was and how it almost destroyed the world in 2006?
The internet won't die, it will rather evolve as it always has. Blame it on the greed of corporations and the ingenuity of mankind.
... and will continue to fall. The internet will never collapse on itself.
Nothing that the democrats have invented has ever failed. Al Gore is one solid architect. Look at social security and NAFTA for some other democratic successes.
l8,
AC
Fortunately, Linux still has UUCP support built into it. We can always go back to serial dial-up store-n-forward networking.
:)
*shiver*
The internet's not going to "die", but the ongoing shakeout of crap will continue. As things get overwhelmed with crap, THOSE THINGS will die. The rest of the internet will continue, and likely will get better. Amazon, Google, Microsoft, WalMart, you name it... these companies aren't going to give up their internet sales & distro channels without a final, furious attempt to save the medium. That would actually be a good thing, because as they're sinking who knows how much money into it, we'll all get great jobs and be able to say we helped fix the cruft and make the net better.
stuff |
Calm down. Your 1337-ness isn't under attack here.
The problem is that when you have a decentralized enemy and no way of knowing their locations or when they will "strike", there's no effective offensive strategy. Defensive solutions (spam filters etc.) can be circumvented. So you end up either pulling out (abandoning e-mail/etc. entirely) or fighting a losing battle.
There are plenty of nerds able to create spam filters but nobody has been able to stop the root problem, which is the *desire* for someone to create spam. That is motivated by economics. Have fun fixing it.
I think that he meant won't be infected by Windows people.
"I predict another five years for the Internet in its present form. The reason for this will be that proper users' dissatisfaction will have reached such heights by then that some other system will be needed, unless the Internet is improved and made reliable," Kari said.
So if everything stays static, except the bad stuff, the bad will outweigh the good and it will become unusable. Wow. That is a revelation.
Welcome to the new century. We've got more freedom, and we choose to use it for getting off. We like getting off. And we like getting off to different things, things which will never be provided by the mainstream. We will not accept a non-free Internet, not after having a free one.
Sticking feathers up your butt does not make you a chicken - Tyler Durden
preparing a dossier about some rogue country (with lots of oil) holdign Weapons of Internet Destruction ? Do they have the capability of deploying then within 45 minutes? destroy all ecommerce sites in the british isles and causing the collapse of western values....
I work as a roving technical support person helping mostly SoHos with computer problems and, well, I kind of have to agree about the collapse, though I may differ on the actual time.
I routinely see -- on a daily basis -- broken emails that crash mail readers, systems crippled by spyware, viruses like you wouldn't believe.
I realize the danger here of becoming the cop who sees all people as potential criminals, but I think the key difference in predictions of doom-and-gloom several years ago and those of today is very simple: profit.
Companies -- rightly or wrongly -- are profiting from most of the crap causing these problems. Researchers like Ben Edelman and F-Secure have shown that companies and individuals spend, spent _and_ make money with the proliferation of spyware, spam, and spam-bots. Why else did Dell UK show up on WhenU?
And because of this money, things are simply going to get worse.
The other side of this, too, is that most people are simply unaware there is a problem. They see a slow system and lost emails and don't investigate why. They blame the computer, mostly, but instead of fixing the symptoms, if that's even possible, they resort to other ways of getting work done. This is reasonable considering the end user's end goal.
I honestly don't believe that many of the proposals aimed at curbing spyware, trojans, and spam are going to work immediately, if at all, because they ultimately inconvenience the user. Let's face it: The computer didn't become popular during its command-line phase because it _looked_ difficult and so many people were backing that up with statements about complexity. Many people freak out when they change email addresses. Can you honestly expect this person to take the time to understand a whitelist, let alone implement it? Sorry, they're going to pick up the phone. What's more, many of the long-time companies like Symantec are starting to make serious missteps with their upgrades -- breaking applications and hindering systems in the quest to stop the problem. (Just watch Norton 2004 try to remove spyware.)
I really don't know what the answer is, but I am very afraid for the future of computers in workplaces. I'm afraid for computers in general. What's going to happen? I think there's going to be a major business user-contraction if the problem doesn't get better soon. Users WILL come back, but only after they feel they can trust the tool again. And surely, that's all it is to most people trying to get work done: a tool.
If Nalgene water bottles are outlawed, only outlaws will have Nalgene water bottles.
Only the people who believed the internet was some kind of nirvana, where all the sins of mankind were going to be washed away by technology, are disappointed with the way things are going. The rest of us deal with the quirks and it still proves most useful. And businesses are the most locked in. Are we going to go back to modems and BBSs? Not if we want to stay in business. We will deal. The internet will deal. And mankind will remain unchanged in the face of technology.
Back in '84 I was offered access to the internet and turned it down. At the time our Uni was networked and the most apparent benefit was that the student body was able to swap, what I thought of at the time was, stupidities and banalities. What I missed then, and what Kari misses still today is that all that "rubbish" is the accumulated wisdom of a culture. All that rubbish accumulated in the Net is the greatest treasure of our age.
The problem, as I see it, isn't the network - it's the content. When I first got online, the itnernet was new and the people using it were not morons. There were tons of pages by Scientists, Colleges, Inventors, Doctors, etc etc. The internet was a vast place where knowledge and ideas were put out there to share. Now, it is 90% coporate (including Porn biz). I think we need to seperate the corporate web from the individual web - and not just wil a optional .biz - it needs to be enforced.
DAMN YOU OCTODOG! DAMN YOU TO HELL!
but this time he really means it!
R
Stuff that matters: circuitbreakers, vacuum-cleaners coffee makers, calculators generators, matching salt+pepper shakers
We will have flying Cars. No longer use Oil. Have robots to do everything for us. Also will have reached the technological singularity?
If you throw enough shit, some of it will stick.
I just don't get what is up with these 5 times yearly announcements that the internet is coming to an end.
Give it up already and find another way to get PR for yourself and/or your company.
2 years from now, someone will do a mega-post here a listing all internet sites, so all of them will be slashdotted, making the article a reality.
I won't read the article because I don't want to be liable for more rubbish pouring through the pipes of the Internet. I don't want to help him fulfill his prophesy.
/. have a good reason to not RTFA.
For once, we all at
"The entire system will crumble to bits..."
I thought the system already was in bits
Obviously, the internet is made up of not only the hardware and the software and the data - it is also the people, and people are ultimately flexible and capable of adaptation to the situations that may arise. Just as the internet allows routing around failed nodes, so will people route around the noise.
If you talk about pain, consider the withdrawal pain all of us will have to go through if the internet just wasn't available for all of our daily things anymore.
An example of adaptability of things relating to human-ness influence - languages have generally changed over the ages, and has withstood the assault of abuse and misuse more or less intact. People are always worried that new coinage and usage of the language will corrupt the language to the point where it is no longer useful - this is far from the truth, and so it will be for the internet.
Doesn't Hannu mean Harry in Swahili??
For I am Cletus.The.Wonder.Sloth IPv6.5
The Internet will collapse, because there's too much crap floating around? I think there's a lot of crap floating around, but I don't get to notice much of it due to my software and usage patterns. I think this technique will continue to work for years to come.
Ok, so maybe email is suffering from a spam overdose. This can be countered by fixing the protocols. It won't be RFC 821, but it will still be there in some form.
As for www, as long as I don't go to crap sites, I don't see crap. Simple as such. Just because there are lots of crap sites doesn't mean there won't be any good ones. And frankly, I don't think the percentage of crap sites is that high (unless you're talking code quality).
Argh, I'm not going to think up any more examples. It's a ridiculous claim, why am I even responding.
Please correct me if I got my facts wrong.
How many people do you know that backup their PC on a regular basis, or at all?
Mea navis aericumbens anguillis abundat
...that the Internet will develop an immune system in the real world powered by a secure, anonymous dead pool and paid-for mercenaries to hunt down and kill spammers, scammers and jack asses. I have a pay pal account, an inbox full of spam and the ROKSO list printed out ready to start entering names. Vote with your money and when Alan Ralsky is worth more dead than alive, we'll see what happens to the future of the Internet...
The Internet is a playground with no dried up old teachers to tell us not to hang upside down on the monkey bars. But groups and structures based on groups mature just like individuals, only slower. As the Internet evolves it will become self-policing. As we can see already with moderated forums, the relevant information can be made to bubble to the top with some small effort of users of said information. It is in the self interest of all Internet users to make it a viable place to find and exchange information. We are all selfish, and I think we'll get what we want. The other advantage the Internet has is that there are a lot of smart people using it and smart people are even better at figuring out how to get what they want than the average Joe. Perhaps the Internet would have already "collapsed" in a useful sense were it not for Google and others. Where there's a will there's a way.
Admiral William Leahy, U.S. Atomic Bomb Project: The bomb will never go off. I speak as an expert in explosives.
Lumpy is right, although I dont see no "leetness" there... that most be some kind of childish attempt at an insult? I digress...
99.9999765% of all internet users think that the "internet" is their web browser.
The internet from the early 1980's is still there and being used heavily. Those that say that it is not, are either horribly dimwitted or simply know absolutely nothing about what they are talking about.
Either way, their comments should be treated with as much value.
Everyone knows all the good usenet "debates" are yenc encoded.
Lets not forget that this thrusted net thing has already been tried. Think AOL.
Offering people a subset of the net to play in is fine. The problem happens when they get out and START TALKING IN CAPS BECAUSE THEY THINK THAT IS EASIER.
Lock them back up where they belong. Anyone ever infected by a virus or piece of spyware does not belong on the net or on the streets.
If they withdraw from the net it will not be a loss.
The real net is far to usefull to die anytime soon. It is like saying roads will die because people get killed on them and sooner or later people will get tired off the huge deathtoll and demand a better solution.
I don't know wich species your talking about but the human race does not work that way.
MMO Quests are like orgasms:
You may solo them, I prefer them in a group.
I saw this in a Dilbert book once (roughly):
Every disaster that we can think might happen, like Y2K or Smallpox-wiping-out-humanity etc, doesn't happen because we work out a way to stop it happening!
So the only disasters we need to worry about are the ones we can't predict...:-)
Occasional fringe wacko? You must have not read alt.buddha.short.fat.guy :) Most of the comp and rec groups were pretty good, though.
I found my copy of the STANDARDIZED BONEHEAD REPLY FORM the other day in my archvies. I don't know where to be begin to modify it to apply to Usenet today...
(S(SKK)(SKK))(S(SKK)(SKK))
this guy's a fucking idiot. He get's press because of that, too. Fucking sad.
Well if Spam and Spyware continue to increase then the net experience will be affected for some.
Thing is spyware can be avoided by ditching Windows and Spam is starting to being tackled with email system changes such as the one proposed by Yahoo.
"Television programming will become so bogged down with advertisements and pandering to the lowest common denominator that it will collapse under its own weight in bloat, and we will go back to the telegrammophone."
In the future, I would want to not be isolated from my friends in the Space Station.
<with exasperation>Blah, blah, blah. Yes, we know all this. Now tell me when DNF is coming out!
OK, so why don't you:
a) run an open mail relay and see how long until you get shut down
b) Use Lynx to do any non-trivial interaction
c) Find the latest news using Gopher
d) Find the latest documentation on any program, again using Gopher
www.eFax.com are spammers
with 4 years application/os deployment (Landesk/InstallShield), package building and testing experience.
Will work for fries.
http://www.supersizeme.com
http://www.lipservicemusic.com
Basically what I'm getting at is that it doesn't matter until someone in a position that has the power to force change is affected directly or indirectly.
As with your example with DOS, more than high-end users were being affected. The competition work out alternatives to use extra memory (EMS memory anyone ?), and it wasn't until MS realized that they were going to loose to the competition that they came out with XMS and High Memory, etc. scheme from DOS 5 onwards.
Windows Enhanced mode did not take effect for a long time. Lots of applications were still written and being written for DOS, even when Windows 3.1 was around. It wasn't until the release of Windows 95 that things began to change and people started to look towards Windows as a "real" application platform.
I was just talking with someone about the current state of doing business on the internet and I have to say that a pretty picturing isn't getting painted. I work for a webhosting company that right now has to filter out 90% of all incoming orders because they are fraud's. I just had someone try and fraud me out of $5.01 on an eBay auction (I mean really...FIVE DOLLARS?!?!?). The thing is, no one is doing anything about it. They just find another credit card and try again. Until there are real penalties commerce on the net will get worse.
Unstable Apps: Our Android Apps Don't Suck
You've got issues!
Issues!
Crazy fuckin issues...
Wishing I was a millionaire since 1969.
Real business transactions are done over private networks. While consumer internet businesses like ebay etc may suffer from internet outages/lack of interest/etc, companies like Ford, Philips etc will barely notice in terms of business transactions. They all use private lines. The reason is simple: you can get a SLA for a private line. Once your traffic hits the public internet, there is no SLA. While you data will probably eventually arrive, packets going from paris to amsterdam might be routed through Sydney. While this is fine for personal email and browsing random web sites, it is unacceptable for real business transactions.
Sure some small suppliers may access their larger B2B customers via an internet based VPN, but if the public internet starts to crash, those will just be converted to private lines, and the added overhead cost will be reflected in the price of the component produced.
What the author is actually predicting is in fact the death of the general public's use of the internet. In which case he may/may not be right..
We'll see..
Can't say I'm suprised by the coincidence of Longhorn's release date, and the end of teh interweb.
Oh well, I'll just use my unconnected computer to spin my open windows, and play with my 3d menus!
Thing is spyware can be avoided by ditching Windows
How can we do this without forcing people who unwittingly bought Winhardware to replace their computers? In the meantime, until peripheral manufacturers start taking FreeBSD and the like seriously, the simpler route is to just ditch IE.
Yeah, the S/N sucks, and it's infested with vermin, but it's alive and well... enough.
At least, some groups are. Judicious use of killfiles help a lot.
My current filters mean I never even see about 75% of the posts in alt.guitar.amps . About half of what makes it through is still junk, but it's manageable.
Yeah. we have lost good people because of the S/N, and a lot of others look in, their eyes pop out of their heads, and they feel screaming down the hall, flapping their arms like chickens. And that's sad, because they could learn a lot there. But it's not dead, yet.
If only it were legal to go all vigilante on spammers (email, newsgroups, phone, whatever), the poroblem would solve itself in no time. Most of these folks just need the good whuppin' their parents never gave them. 8^/
Again...
I don't remember the gathering, but a bunch of scientists gathered around 1946 to declare that, of all the scientific discoveries to be found, almost all of them had already been found. The next year, they invented the transistor. We all know where that wound up.
Nah, his is the view of someone who's been bound by all sorts of machinations designed to do something that Microsoft never did, and never could: to design something that immediately responds to problems like spam, pop-ups, viruses, and the whole spyware crud.
Fer cryin' out loud: we now have ISPs blocking viruses, networks stopping worms, and people thinking that being able to do nothing on the computer is the way it's supposed to be!
Hear me now, believe me later: when this goes away and the smoke clears, the whole world will be better off in Linux.
Not an opinion, a belief. Remember these days. These will not be regarded as 'the good old days'. Those were back when Win9x just got started.
Long live the good _new_ days!
--- For a good time mail uce@ftc.gov
Y2K5 just has some cosmetic improvements, the engine is still showing it's age. And Madden's commentating is exactly the same . . .ohh wait...
Last Post!
However, the corporates that are piggybacking on the 'internet' via vpn will keep it alive.
But for the home user, i tend to agree.. its almost to that point now for many of us.
---- Booth was a patriot ----
Well honestly if Spam, Java ads, popups, etc... got to the point where people actually would stop using the internet the powers that be would just....wait a minute - who the hell cares about those things...after all these four things are what the average person uses the internet for currently: Directions, Shopping, Research, and Online Games. Now online retail games won't give issues with spam or popup ads and looking for directions won't give you trouble either if your using mapquest or yahoo maps etc.. Shopping if done intelligently and using trusted sites like macys.com, etc.. won't give you problems.
it's only when your looking for something and having to use google or another search engine that you get into trouble with annoyances. Simply because oyu type in what your looking for and half the returns are fake porn sites, jackasses with usefull domain names running ad sites, and maybe somewhere in these returns is a site relative to what your looking for.
My guess is that in the future search engines will either go away (very unlikely) or they will just get overly strict(read: filter a lot) on what they spider and become less useful because of it.
Of course we could just take the time to find and kill all the spammers and ayone who runs popups and java ads on their sites and cut off their balls....
Ave Molech Setting
I don't know about HTTP, but spam is making email nearly useless. People have to play all kinds of games to avoid and filter spam. It is an endless cat-and-mouse game that wont end until something drastic is done, such as paid postage.
Most solutions used by geeks use obscure technologies, such as Baysian nets. But as soon as these techniques go mainstream, spammers will disect them and work around them.
In a sense, email has *already collapsed* from a usability standpoint.
Table-ized A.I.
"I predict another five years for the Internet in its present form. The reason for this will be that proper users' dissatisfaction will have reached such heights by then that some other system will be needed, unless the Internet is improved and made reliable," Kari said.
I get from this article the AOL-hurd and the users who felt buying a PC with internet connection was necessary cause it has been advertized as this really "convenient thing" will just walk away, leaving the more technically able people doing as they have been for decades. Or do I see this wrong?
Admittedly, I get frustrated too by all the problems from users. But my personal machine rarely gets these problems.
If John-AOL-doh wont put up with a slight learning curve, so be it imo.
He points out the internet will come crashing down if there aren't any improvements made. Isn't there.. a constant evolution with as goal to improve things in the IT? (disregarding MS ^_^)
I think we can keep recursing like this until someone returns 1
The entire system will crumble to bits as the sheer bulk of rubbish circling around in the net exceeds the public pain threshold.
You mean like this guy's article?
Hmm, I wonder if this is relevant?
...when he said "internets"!
I was watching Dr. Kari talking on MTV3 channel a few days ago and at first I thought that it was a really interesting interviewed, but I changed the channel in 0.666 seconds as soon as noticed that Dr. Kari was wearing a Star Trek communicator badge. That was a really nice way to get rid of all the remaining pieces of credibility.
No goddamed ads, graphics or any other crap unless you want it.
You don't even have to have a goddammed web browser installed if you don't want one.
I can't see the internet's actual infrastructure collapsing; the potential for adding additional load handling is enormous. I can, however, see several common sub-protocols collapsing and being replaced. In fact, I welcome it.
The biggest culprit is email, which is currently hopelessly overburdened with spam. The solutions that have been presented are IMO simply inadequate, and I'm waiting for SMTP to dry up and disappear. I suspect that its successor will be tied to a new, killer instant messaging app.
The web does have some issues as well, but internet Darwinism is taking place and should eventually solve the problem all by itself. People are more likely to forward pages to friends that do NOT pop-under 15 different advertisements and invite you to install a half-dozen spyware apps.
..in two years or so, the internet(s) will commit Hannu-Kari?
For what this guy says to be true, everyone would have to get sufficiently upset that they leave the net together...within a very short space of time.
If people leave gradually - then the incentive for spammers and spyware pushers and such to invade the net will decrease because the number of people they can reach will be decreasing.
The most likely realistic outcome is that the number of people on the web will gradually decrease - and so will the level of junk - until we reach a new equilibrium where the threshold of pain is not quite reached. The only question is where that new level is.
The net could get much smaller - and lose many advert-driven sites - but that would merely return us to where we were before the net was so overrun by people seeking entertainment and such online...except that the infrastructure is much better now.
Real enthusiasts with machines that are proof against most forms of junk and who have good spam filters will stay - and presumably see things gradually improve as time goes by.
Personally, I rather preferred the smaller, more elitist Internet where only fairly smart people hung out - and most web sites were put up by people with the pure motive of helping each other.
Bring it on!
www.sjbaker.org
But it won't, and the effects will be real.
There will be real sacrifices to use the "safe" Trusted MS OS, just like things broke when moving to XP SP2. The Trusted MS OS will have something on the order of 6 months of an awkward period. During that time, it *will* be safe from all of the evil Internet stuff, but it will be only marginally useful, because the applications won't be there, yet. By the time the applications are there, ingenious entrepreneurs will be there too, figuring out how to bypass the vaunted security. At the point where the security compromises begin, the Trust will be Gone.
I'm not just picking on Microsoft at not being able to deploy a "secure" OS. IMHO nobody can, there is no silver bullet for computing and network security. Repeat - no silver bullet. Even IF you had 100% perfect software, and I don't believe that's even practical, there's still human engineering. By the time you think you've ruled out human engineering, the OS is practically unusable, at least by Windows standards.
Take your house, for instance... Before going to bed, don't you check to make sure you didn't forget to lock the doors? Same when parking the car? Don't you notify a neighbor when you're about to leave on a trip, and take some other precautions? Security isn't a buy-once thing, it's a process, and purchasing is only part of it.
So in the long run, if Microsoft does try to field a Trusted OS, I'd expect it to fail within a year, unless they're able to FORCE everyone to adopt it. More likely than out-and-out failure would be a watering down, so it's *just* the next version of Windows, a little better than the last.
The living have better things to do than to continue hating the dead.
No, sorry. The Internet is going to die in 1997 because AOL users have access to it!!
Oops, sorry. The Internet is going to die in 1999 because of the load placed on it by Dot.Com startups!!!
Uh, sorry. The Internet is going to die in 2001 because of the Dot.Com bust and no more money for infrastructure!!!!
Uh, nevermind but, the Internet is going to die in 2004 because of the whole world getting on with broadband and we're running out of IP addresses!!!!!
Small miscalculation. But now I assure you that the Internet is going to die in 2006 because of spam!!!!!!
NOW PROVE ME WRONG!!!!!!!
"It's the height of ridiculousness to say for those 9 lines you get hundreds of millions."
Earthquakes, volcanos!
The dead rising from the grave!
Human sacrifice, dogs and cats living together, MASS HYSTERIA!
That will save him the trouble of eating a raw volatile.
--
Mad science! Robots! Underwear! Cute girls! Full comic online! http://www.girlgeniusonline.com/
For those old enough, remember the Citizens Band Radio craze. It lasted for a few years and died off. CB radio is still around and performs a vital function, but the hype has gone away and CB does what it was intended to do ( provide low cost radio communications with minimal liscencing requirements). Likewise, the "Internet Craze" will die off and the internet will become what it really does best. Just like CB radio, it will probably look different when things settle out. (my crystal ball is broken, so I don't know what the internet will finally be)
Imminent death of Internet predicted. Film at 11.
I suppose you don't want to go back too far, or you'd wind up back at ARPANET. Unless you think of a DOD-funded network as "our" network.
I live in a part of the country where many people continually complain about the newcomers. "Gotta stop those Valleys, man!" But then you ask them what the cut-off date should be. Should it be 2000? 1990? 1983? And by the way, when did you arrive here? Chances are you'll want the cutoff date to be right after your arrival.
Read the EFF's Fair Use FAQ
is just a good low level format and complete reinstall...
I still have quite a few email addresses that I use for corespondence that actually do not get spam... So in a sense you are not always going to suffer from these things automatically.
Now the problem is that if everyone stopped using email then would not spam be worthless?
Eventually the effort vs risk vs reward will be so low that spammers won't have an audience to even try anymore. Now that might be a while... Even a decade or so when everyone uses something else other than SMTP.
Now remnants of what once was the "cyber elite" might actually go back to these archaic protocols since they no longer face the same problem as they did before.
Then again once that happens and email traffic increases then spam will naturally increase.
I guarantee you that people will make do with personal certificates or other such measures to stay connected. Spam filtering is working, and soon those chumps will be throwing bits to the wind as no network worth using will permit such rubbish to enter. Hopefully by 2006 will see "public" network security catch on and a lot less wasted resources.
Hecubas
OK, so I'm not the most technical person in the world, but why in the world aren't ISP's made to take more responsibility for stopping all the garbage. Virus, trojans, and 'sploits can't circulate beyond one or two "bad" computers if ISP stop the traffic that contains the malicious data... Right?
Why does this seem so obvious? People are not allowed to send bombs in the mail/post, so why are the electronic versions so easy to spread?
On a different but related topic...
And after spending like 2 hours trying to get CashBackBuddy off a coworker's computer yesterday, I HONESTLY don't know why someone that has not lost valuable or life-critical data to those asshats that make software like bargain buddy, bullseye network, cashback and navisearch, etc. has not been clubbed to death. I'm serious, I can see a circumstance where both the management responsible as well as the programmers are gunned down because they caused "the wrong person" to loose some important data, etc.
If these supreme fart-holes that are programming this stuff realized that their lives were in danger if they continue, perhaps that would help. Apparently the written laws or enforcement mechanisms are insufficient to deal with these people, so perhaps some good ol' vigilante justice makes sense until the wwwild wwwild wwwest is actually civilized.
What I don't know I just fake...
I only have one question, which one? I only recently learned there were internets, so maybe a bit of clarity would help.
Despite the jab, I still like Bush in 04.
Its all just smoke and mirrors.
The entire system will crumble to bits as the sheer bulk of rubbish circling around in the net exceeds the public pain threshold.
The doctor is wrong for several reasons.
First off, his premise is based off of nothing changing. The Internet behaves like an evolutionary biological system. Spammers send out spam, people build spam filters to lock out spam, and then the spammers improve spam to beat the filters. It mirrors a biological eveloutionary race. Unless one group eliminates the other entirely by an new improvement in strategy, this will go back and forth for a long time.
Furhtermore, there is also a predator-prey model at work. As the predators(spam,viruses,spyware) become more prevalent, the 'weak' users will be weeded out. Actually, they will get fed up and abandon the meidum. The 'stronger' prey are more impervious to such nusances, and will just ignore them. As the easy prey decreeses, so does the profitiability of spammers, spyware, and vectors for virri. This will cause their numbers to drop, and allow a new batch of weak prey to enter the model.
The netw will never 'crash' due to issues such as this, but it may experience rises and falls in popularity among the masses. The sky is not falling.
HA! I just wasted some of your bandwidth with a frivolous sig!
Well, then I will give global economies two more weeks. The US stock markets have been supported by you idiots' retirement funds with one intention. But it is not to make investment gains for the holders, figure out what it is.
The net will never collapse. It will only paralyse regionally and occasionally for a short while as there are all the reasons in the world to keep it going and continue generating financial gains for all parties.
The entire system will crumble to bits as the sheer bulk of rubbish circling around in the net exceeds the public pain threshold
the public pain threshold?! Clearly this guy has never seen American TV.
You can have my cynical agnosticism when you pry it from my cold, dead logic.
Yeah, there's a lot of junk out there, but can we deal with it or is it really just going to make everything collapse? Look at the message board you are typing on right now, it's the perfect example. Yeah, there are a lot of half-wits posting nonsense, but when you look through the comments, the moderators have graciously filtered the noise so that all we see is the meat and potatoes of the better responses left by people, instead of having to filter through all the crap ourselves. Maybe the internet will collapse in a sense, but data networks are never going away, that much should be plainly obvious. Now if such a "collapse" or mass-exodus were to occur, it would be a great thing because the internet would go back to being what it once was in the mid 90s, back when things were simpler, so I for one hope that day comes. Perhaps with spyware and adware taking over users computers, more people will understand the joy of learning linux and taking a more active role in their computer, thus making them smarter as well to not fall for the average "click here" user, which there are so many of right now. as long as governments stay out of this buisness, things will correct themselves
"... unless the Internet is improved and made reliable," Kari said.
Right now, all the time, new spam combatting methods are being thought up.
In two years, Herr Doctor will point at the spam filters created in the last two years and announce to the world how good it is that the computer industry listened to his warning and created the "internet improvements". And all us maggots must now bow down before him.
Two years is conveniently long to guarantee that some improvements will happen, but short enough so he doesn't have to wait too long until Step Three: PROFIT!!!
The death of the net has been a frequent cry over the past couple decades.
I'm doing my best to archive all the porn, sorting it this time too.
So much for the electronic frontier. Anarchy is always good until you have actual people involved.
Well, Wikipedia and other wikis are the proof that this is not necessarily true.
cpghost at Cordula's Web.
...is the sheer weight of the bullsh** from fear mongering idiots like this guy who do a half assed attempt at selling some product or service by cloaking it in dire predictions as part of some bogus "scholarly discourse".
When the general public decides that it's too big of a pain in the ass to do anything on the Internet, the Internet will start to shrink.
What would be wrong with that? Seriously? If the uneducated part of the general public left, this would only be beneficial to the rest of us. It may also increase S/N ratio. It would also deter spammers by making the smaller Internet population less attractive to them etc...
cpghost at Cordula's Web.
With all respect to this gentleman's knowledge, he seems to be thinking that the Internet won't evolve, that people won't adapt, and that technology won't change.
People are used to what the internet brings - access to information and services of various natures. They want it. They will find ways to overcome problems with the system, and folks will be glad to provide (and probably sell) them solutions.
The Internet isn't what it was when it started, what it was 10 years ago, and even what it was 5 years ago. It will be something different 5 years from now and 10 years from now.
That's not death, that's evolution.
"The Sage treasures Unity and measures all things by it" - Lao Tzu
He's from the same department that previously predicted: 1) in '98 that telecom firms will go out of business in a few years because internet phonecalls are free, 2) in 2000 that broadcast television companies will go out of business in a few years because media can be multicasted/streamed over the internet, and "as we all know it internet is free".
:-)
VoIP is only now making small breakthroughs, and I don't see multicast working very well because of all the firewalls and NATs. Anyway, he's a visionary and visionaries are supposed to make outrageous suggestion, otherwise they would get any headlines
now you're just making up names.
I've been lurking around most of the internet since
the early 90's and the S/N has *always* been bad on
USENET. So (with the exception of comp.risks(!!!))
when exactly was it good? (You are old Father Time...).
Finland: the country where people sing Night and Day 6 month at a time.
Help fight continental drift.
Well, I was going to write some sarcastic comment about how this guy was right and we really need to go back to the way we did things before the internet...until I realized I couldn't imagine what it was like doing those things before the internet ...
I think that's a decent case that it has some staying power... remember when TV turned to total crap, and was overpriced, and everybody got mad and threw out their TVs and that was the End Of Television As We Know It? yeah...
It's 10 PM. Do you know if you're un-American?
Duh! That's a null statement. NOTHING will be around in its current form in five years! I just love it when the everybody drops jaw just because some notability spews predictions about the future. Nobody knows anything, that's the simple truth. Making predictions is ludicrous. I am surprised anyone of reputation is willing to do such a thing.
As for email, I don't see the problem. I get 100-200 spams a day but 99.9% are filtered out. I've never seen a false positive, and if it ever happens -- my phone number is on my homepage.
..cuz who'd want to be constipated in heaven?
The internet will finally achieve what you've all wanted all these years - common ordinary functional acceptance. Of course what goes along with that is all the dreck and garbage 'content' that supports it like advertising, porn, sweepstakes and 99.99% of the blogs.
"Nobody ever goes to Madison Square Garden. It's too crowded."
--Casey Stengel
This sounds like the comment of someone to who "Internet" means the same as "My favorite homepage". Just because the WWW is currently flooded with advertising doesn't mean the rest of the Internet isn't doing pretty well, thank you very much.
This is a preparation for eliminating the free internet.
n ta namoization.html
Internet 2 with strong auth for all users and UN control is the goal. No more pesky indy media and alternative views.
Once they have the net, freedom will be doomed.
Ran Dather! War is Peace, slavery is freedom!
Hail the leader and the loving Gov!
http://www.infowars.net/Pages/Oct_04/181004_gua
http://tinyurl.com/globalwarmingisascam
Goddamned right. Goddammit!!!
ps: try the decaf. it helps.
that Bush talked about (and Gore invented)? Will they be gone to?
Future Internet Deaths
Disclaimer: I didn't read the article.
I'm not a smorgasbord.
Your sig makes you sound like a petulant anarcho-kiddie, and the linked paper has no interesting or original ideas. Sorry.
Sometimes seventeen/Syllables aren't enough to/Express a complete
Oh my! I am only gonna have two more years of downloading p0rn! Better get busy!
"can anyone tell me what the internet was and how it almost distroyed the world in 2006?"
- Sealab 2021
The world is going to end tomorrow - who cares about 2006?!?
The1Genius - Littera Scripta Manet
IMHO, it was when the Internet was opened up for commercial purposes when all the crud started flowing. Maybe, when businesses see it as unsuitable for their mass marketing needs and go away, the 'net will start to function properly again. Perhaps raising the cost of admission to the ".com" domains might work to keep out some of the garbage that's clogging up the works. Who knows? But something's got to happen. Thirty-six emails in the Inbox this morning at work and only one of them was something I asked to receive or from someone that I know. I'm getting a bit sick of having to go through all the junk. It's way too much like the daily ritual of sifting through all the junk snail mail that I get at home.
CUR ALLOC 20195.....5804M
Why don't you join the IPv6 network and disconnect from the IPv4 one? You'd be doing everyone a favor, including yourself! What we need right now is a couple of elitists just like you making the next generation Internet more valuable than what it currently is!
I was talking to a non-geek friend of mine last night. This guy is probably about your average Joe Sixpack type. Anyway, I told him that the photos of my son's wedding were on my site if he wanted to see them. He said that with his system being filled with viruses, spam, popups, & spyware, it had slowed down to the point of being practically useless. Most times he couldn't even get online. They had reached the point of not even bothering to turn it on.
I told him about programs that could get rid of the junk, but it was like I was speaking a foreign language. He asked for help, but he lives about 60 miles away and I'm not going in that direction any time soon.
So, for him and his wife, there is no internet now. It makes you wonder how many people there are out there that have just given up.
really, that factor alone is why he wrong.... unless he has a better solution where i can get cheap and free pron anytime i want in privacy of my own home....
"All the spammers and trolls noticed that everyone left, so they left too."
And now they're writing/commenting on weblogs.
[Assume clever links to examples here. I'm tired.]
..but what MIGHT do it is mandated schemes like "trusted computing" and internet 2 and a few whopper corporations and "public service and infoscammation" orgs and such like working hand in hand with government turning the net into a big opt in pay per view deal, like cable TV. I'm serious too, that's what it looks like right now, the trends if you extrapolate it enough.
I can see that happening easily. Won't take much, a few more high profile terrorist incidents, the next few big worms that take out a lot of peoples boxes and maybe some routers, etc, whatever. A couple of laws passed, universal ID to "stop terrorism" and to "protect the children" and to stop "evile criminal file sharing and get rid of spammers", etc. Pick the top dozen YRO topics, THAT'S what is going to bork the net, not any one of them, all of them in conjunction together.
Stuff can change FAST, and I don't think it's wise to completely dismiss the notion that these corporate governmental alliances can do stuff that you might not like, but that 99% of the people out there WOULD like and that almost everyone would put up with.
People have proven over and over again they will gladly give up freedoms for "more security". It's daily in the news, no reason to think the net would be much different. Eventually.
Whether or not that would count as taking the net down is a matter of opinion, but I would say compared to the way it is now (almost total anarchy), that *yes* it would count.
Governments and big corporations ain't digging on that wild wild west anarchy action,costs them money and power/control and is embarrassing to them because of that, so I would be way surprised if they let it continue for much longer. All they need is a few big excuses for public relations propoganda purposes, and they are close enough to having them now.
This guy must live in a non-cable area and too far from the CO so he mustn't be able to get ADSL either. That's why he can't stand everyone enjoying the internet but him...
Just check the number of posts to usenet about the internet. If there has been a decline in the number of posts about the internet, then the internet is truly dying....
How about something more useful than some electronic coven? There are damn few independent archives... which means there is no public record. Big fucking problem there; one that is starting to haunt us already.
Sometimes seventeen/Syllables aren't enough to/Express a complete
"The entire system will crumble to bits as the sheer bulk of rubbish circling around in the net exceeds the public pain threshold.
Download all the 'bulk of rubbish' into Data. That positronic brain sure has the capacity to store it all.
Hey presto! Clean internet..
Isn't there some law that now matter how big the disk drive, you'll always fill it up?
I think the biggest threat is the conversion of people from 56K baud modems to broadband. People will start using the Internet more.
Then you also have the bandwidth that is required to transmit video and audio digitally via the Internet. Again, bandwidth demand will increase thus pushing the limits.
Eventually once some part of the Internet breaks because of bandwidth the American Congress will pass yet again the largest Highway and Transportation bill that not only pours more records amount of concrete in America but also builds out more Internet. AFter all, isnt' the Internet just another highway for transporting goods and services common to all?
Cheers!
-Mybrid
Realize that Internet wasn't all good in "the good old days". If you remember the eLiTe groups (yes, they used to be that in the old days, viruses, trojans, asshats, leechers, spammers... seriously, they've been around since well... forever. I see this about "SPIM" being new, well whoopideedoo.. I got that as a pre-1 million ICQ user.
Internet does not collapse in any meaningful way just because of bullshit like that. Yes, it may become harder to directly establish a 1-1 contact directly. You know what? There's hundreds of places to meet online and exchange contact within a limited group, called forums. Or IRL exchange of contact info for initial contact.
And that's not counting everything else Internet is used for.
Kjella
Live today, because you never know what tomorrow brings
to Psychiatrists.
In related news, Dr. David Spiegel commits hairy Kari.
SZ
The entire system will crumble to bits
No pun intended???
Really, isn't the entire system already 'bits' by design?
Will I get modded down for dangling on the first post?
The government which is strong enough to protect you from everything is strong enough to take everything from you.
Time to fire up the old BBS server
How am I gonna warez it?
I think there is some truth in what was said. I do believe that there will always be some sort of Internet like network available, but that in the future it may not be organized like we are framiliar with now. I can see an idea like Internet2 becoming very popular 4 or 5 years down the road. Perhaps businesses and research organizations will use a separate network from the standard one. This way they don't have to deal with viruses, worms, porn and the like. Normal users can have their network while more serious users can have a separate one.
SIGFAULT
Once its a Armageddon due to a incoming comet to hit the earth or like today " The end of Internet".
Not only havent we seen any of those happen,or has it happened.
The Earth and the universe has been out there for millions of years,and some "scientist " will come out with a prediction that earth will blow up due to a comet.Probably they want to cause a flutter in the media.
Same with the internet as any other thing.
Iam not a big scientist ,but youll certainly accept as years go by.
None of those extinctions are gonna happen.May be the endangered species and crude oil.But thats about it.
Why does yahoo do this
by instant messangers linked to email... basicly my email accounts don't accept mail unless it comes from a pre approved list... and that list comes from my instant messanger lists... both of which are invite only... if one wishes for privacy all one needs to do is close the door
News at eleven.....
For every problem there is a solution that is simple, obvious and wrong.
that means that soon the only place to find any info will be slashdot...
AccountKiller
It's really not a huge pain, people are just having to awaken to the fact that the Internet isn't a perfectly safe place. When I first got on the Internet I'd never heard of a firewall, not sure if the term had even been coined. Now there's one on practically every system, and most networks.
People are slowly awakening to the fact that they have to take some steps to protect themselves, and finding out how to do so. I've helped a number of friends and family get virus scanners, firewalls, spyware checkers, and given them education as to things to do and not do.
It's not like everyone is having to become an expert in computer secuity or anything, just learning the simple basic steps, the programs they need to run, the things to not do, etc to be safe.
Why do you think that's the demographic that would leave? Besides, it's not the general public that's the problem, it's a relatively small number of spammers and crackers. Most of the general public are just consumers. They neither contribute to nor detract from most internet services they use (such as the web), other than consuming bandwidth. The average "general public" internet user is a nice guy who doesn't write spam or create worms. They may unintentionally propogate worms through bad security, but we'll always have those kinds of people on the Internet, and we need to figure out how to deal with it instead of hoping someday they'll all go away.
-jim
Ah, but will it die before or after implementing IPv6?
If it's after, I think we can relax a bit longer. Hell, I'm sure Duke Nukem Forever is currently aimed at IPv6 networked play...
Ergonomica Auctorita Illico!
and here it is, in all it's wonderful glory
Big of him to keep it up there. He has a couple of good points I think, but was basically just voicing what most old journos thought about the net when it came along: "What will become of us when anyone can publish an article and anyone can read it?" There was an amazing amount of bile thrown at the Internet by people like him at the time as I recall.
"And the meaning of words; when they cease to function; when will it start worrying you?"
The Millenium Bug will whipe out all computer records and reduce all computer systems to nothing more then elaborate paper weights and ... oh ... wait ... never mind.
Theres ways around spam and the crap thats on the Internet (I have no issues with spam or crap what so ever). Will crap reach critical mass soon? Maybe, but theres always ways around it. Maybe the avg joe user will get tired of the crap, but the more technology inclined will always find ways to deal with it.
The bottom line is either Internet users will have to learn to adapt or just say the hell with it. It's happened in almost every type of media and there still kicking.
Just my two cents, keep the change.
This guy doesn't seem to understand that the internet gives the user the choice of where to find the information they are seeking. So if www.sellout.com is starting to suck and be full of ads, www.realdeal.org will just start getting all the traffic instead.
Personally, I used to get about 50-150 spams a day. Now I forward all my email accounts to gmail, and that number is down to 2-3 spams per day (and they all seem to be from the same porn site for some reason). So where before I usually didn't even bother to sift through my email, now it is painless. Things get fixed. If spam made email useless, then I could just use something else, or a propriatary messaging service. Or set up a web page where people could send me messages. Whatever. It would be less convienient (then email working perfectly, which it never has) at first, but incremental improvements would quickly solve that.
The internet will never be threatened by alot of junk, so long as there is non-junk available somewhere.
Maybe we'll actually get the internet back. Remember what it was before AOL made the leap? The ones that will be left are the ones that know HOW to protect themselves from this junk, so it won't be much of an issue. The signal-to-noise maybe very well go UP for once, and it may generally become a more productive/enjoyable experience.
...that we have to rely on *GASP* gossip?
lol, & bill gates will be broke in 24 hours...
No need to. The backup is on-line. here's the link. And here's another one. And two more. As you can see, the Internet is nicely backed up and the backup copies are avaiable on-line, so there is nothing to worry about. In two years when it's gone we'll just have to download the backup copy from one of the abovementioned links.
Sincerely,
Pan Tarhei Hosé, PhD.
"Homo sum et cogito ergo odi profanum vulgus et libido."
Here's a nice hypothetical question: What would you do if somehow you knew 24 hours in advance that the world as we know it, i.e. the internet, would collapse? Would you download the latest version of your favorite Linux programs, turn of the computer in quiet resignation, or would you nostalgically make your last few Slashdot posts? Think about it.
See, but that is the problem. With heavy moderation comes groupthink and censor of ideas that the group might not like.
This is bullshit! Mod parent down! Oh, wait...
Very true. Another example is Slashdot. Even few years ago everything was different. Completely different. It has changed since then. Furthermore, it seems to keep changing still. It's hard to predict how it will look like in the future.
I totally agree with you on the stringent entrance requirements. Actually, I am still in favour of my old proposal to introduce an IQ test in the registration process in on-line fora such as Slashdot and at the very least give some karma penalty for people with low IQ which could be adjusted in the Comment Options much like the Small Comment Penalty. With the Small IQ Penalty everyone would set a threshold below which posts would get their scores decreased by a given modifier, maybe even using a percentile threshold like with the New User Modifier, so one would be able to read posts only written by e.g. the most intelligent 2% of Slashdot population. With an automated test it might work quite well. The needed infrastructure is already available. Of course taking the test would be optional, at least for some time, and anyone who has not taken the test would get an average 100 points (which would encourage people to take the test out of embarrassment). I think it is a really good idea.
Sincerely,
Pan Tarhei Hosé, PhD.
"Homo sum et cogito ergo odi profanum vulgus et libido."
It's not about a PAIN threshold. It's about a PLEASURE threshold. The internet is pretty much a big porn shop nowadays. How much can YOU take before YOU collapse? I for one have a 120GB hard drive.
If we treated all illegal businesses (and business people) as drug dealers, and apply forfeiture laws to them, we would see 1 of 2 good things happen:
1. fewer spammers and criminals (such as enron peeps) operating out of the USA.
or
2. a repeal of forfeiture laws which run counter to the ideals of the constitution by being applied before a person is convicted.
10:1 says that once you apply them to CEOs, you'd end up with number 2, but it might help hurt spammers in the mean time. It'd never happen of course, because where would politicians get their money?
Just like a broken clock is right twice a day.
If he keeps saying that, maybe someday it will be true and he'll say "I told you so".
while (inetAlive) {
printf("I predict the internet will be dead tomorrow\n");
sleep 86400;
printf("Ok, that didn't work out, but I have another prediction.... ");
}
Many years ago this was a thriving, happy planet - people, cities, shops, a normal world. Except that on the high streets of these cities there were slightly more spam shops than one might have thought necessary. And slowly, insidiously, the number of the spam shops were increasing. It's a well-known economic phenomenon but tragic to see it in operation, for the more spam shops there were, the more spams they had to make and the worse and more unwearable they became. And the worse they were to wear, the more people had to buy to keep themselves shod, and the more the shops proliferated, until the whole economy of the place passed what I believe is termed the spam Event Horizon, and it became no longer economically possible to build anything other than spam shops. Result - collapse, ruin and famine. Most of the population died out. Those few who had the right kind of genetic instability mutated into birds who cursed their feet, cursed the ground and vowed that no one should walk on it again.
Simple replace, but the sad thing is it makes some sense this way.
Sorry about the writing. Robot fingers, you know? Cliff Steele in DOOM PATROL #23
From the article:
It's a little like locking a house: if you try to make the locking system as unobtrusive and inconspicuous as possible, somebody will test to see if it works, but if the system appears extremely difficult to break down as soon as you look at it, anyone with evil intentions will probably admit that it's not even worth trying to break in there.
This is exactly the opposite of Paul Graham's attitude expressed in the Good Bad Attitude mentioned on Slashdot recently:
Show any hacker a lock and his first thought is how to pick it.
I make it no secret that I sleep with my apartment door unlocked. Nobody has ever "tested" my door, despite the facts that I'm likely asleep and there's likely expensive stuff inside. However, were I to install a large array of deadbolts positioned very visibly on the outside of my door, I feel I'd likely have somebody stare at them for a while, wondering just how to get at what's on the other side.
I agree with Paul Graham to a much greater extent than Hannu H. Kari.
I will be five years older.
I think this guy is just a little pissed off, hence that mood has given him a negative bias. Its just like the emo girls weblog, she doesnt see herself going anywhere and writes for attention, but in a few years she will grow up and the problems will be countered by some logical solution and thought.
The Internet will do exactly the same.
A system where any of a billion people can turn off almost any website whenever they want is unstable. I won't predict the imminent death of the net but I can trivially predict that it will have to change.
By the way, did he really say "crumble to bits"? Isn't that what it is already, lots and lots of bits?
Almost half said that "bulls.... this is not happening. We have filters. Come and see the real world" - Well, in the real world probably 99% of net users aren't using any SPAM filters 'cause they are still too hard to use. We have two instances of SpamBayes on Outlook at work. Seems easy, but according to the users, it is "making a mess." And try to set up a SPAM filter for IMAP. Yeah, been there, done that. I know why nobody has them. Slashdotters have time and passion to tune filters. They live for that. Maybe you guys should look outside to the real world (and change that Matrix screensaver already!).
The other half is saying that "If there is a problem, we'll fix it." But they have the same filters in place. They do not see the problems. And that, my slashdotters, is Kari's point! He is trying to wake you up to do something about it. RTFA.
Mostly these postings here just prove that Kari is on the right tracks... the information in here is getting burried under the noise.
More stories and people like this, the public pain threshold will burst.
Two issues concerning the IQ Penalty idea:
:)
1. Intelligence Quotient tests are fairly narrow (and somewhat culturally dependent) tests not measuring all forms of intelligence and as such a very rudimentary tool (take a look at Mensa: "intelligence" (IQ) does not always equal sanity, rationality or behaviour, just some types of logic).
2. The whole point of using IQ Penalty (or IQ Bonus) for some kind of automatic recognition of validity defeats much of the purpose. Better to see for one self if the reasoning in posts is actually sound, and point out if one thinks it isn't.
I'm biased as I don't think an IQ Penalty sytem will do much except stifle both the good and bad sides of Slashdot, i.e. less of all, maybe slightly less good than bad, but in no way more good.
Part of the reason for my point of view is that I have (had) the scores (oldest first):
163 (age 21, professional test by the military in my country)
144 (age 23, professional but commercial test by a formerly large software company in my country)
128 (age 28, commercial but national test partly for a tv entertainment program)
All the tests were certified IQ test.
According to this I should be (fairly rapidly) getting more stupid, but I am much more considerate and experienced today than I was at 21, and I think we can all agree reflection is an accumulative process...
At every point (21 to now) did I make errors, I'm convinced I will continue to do so in the "best" of human traditions
this comment is provided "as is" and without any express or implied legibility or congruity [...]
Entertainment purposes. Despite all the rubish, it seems likely that at least some strands of reason and enjoyment will persist. And maybe the rubbish will be starved and die, bit by bit, as no one pays attention... or, at least, that's the extreme.
*predicts equilibrium*
Do you think the small amount of money you and everyone else spends on your TV programming pays for the shows you do watch. If the ads go away, so do all of the shows. Oh, and those magazines would diappear, too. Think, McFly. Think.
There is a Universal Life Value Check it
Yes, I might be a good example indeed... I get your point. Just forget about it.
Every system of censorship (or "moderation," if you will) will not make more good, but can only make less bad. But you may be right and a different test focused on literacy might indeed be a better idea.
I wouldn't personally consider military tests comparable to TV entertainment, nor would I consider commercial ones as such. You talk about some cultural dependency so presumably those tests have little in common with those in Mensa, but in any case, the IQ is calculated in such a way that 100 is an average level among people of the same age in a given population, so you might get more intelligent, but not as fast as other people, so the gap between your level and the average is getting poportionally smaller.
Sincerely,
Pan Tarhei Hosé, PhD.
"Homo sum et cogito ergo odi profanum vulgus et libido."