Why the iPod is Losing its Cool

An anonymous reader writes "The Guardian Unlimited has a provocative article on the recent decline in iPod sales: 'Analysts warn that the iPod has passed its peak. From its launch five years ago its sales graph showed a consistent upward curve, culminating in a period around last Christmas that saw a record 14 million sold. But sales fell to 8.5 million in the following quarter, and down to 8.1 million in the most recent three-month period. Wall Street is reportedly starting to worry that the bubble will burst.'"

Comments

60M sold? that's a lot.

[yagu]

From the article:

Although it has sold nearly 60 million actual iPods and a billion downloaded songs worldwide, cracks have begun to appear in the edifice.

There doesn't seem so much of a crack in any edifice as much as there's ultimately a saturation of the marketplace. At some point, pretty much everyone who wants an iPod gets one, and by now that's pretty much done (anyone hear any recent "I want an iPod" whines from anyone?).

Jobs (from Apple) isn't letting the grass grow ... with his

most ambitious iPod service yet - the sale of feature-length films via the internet for viewing on the devices, which may receive an expanded 'widescreen' and improved storage capacity. If downloading movies from a computer to an iPod proves even half as revolutionary as it did for music, the multibillion-pound DVD industry could be quaking.

As seen in a previous slashdot discussion (the Amazon Unbox article) on video download, it isn't going to happen, or is at least unlikely. There is a slew of articles and surveys showing consumers, especially the target demographic of "younger folk" aren't that interested in long (full length features) videos. Video downloads, management, etc., is just a messier beast for consumers, enough so it's a long way from emergent (storage considerations, price, quality of small devices, battery power for video, DRM, download times, backups, etc.).

Also, consumers are getting hip to the snake oil that is iTunes: (from the article)

..., We have heard from some conspiracy theorists that the batteries are made to die soon after the warranty ends.

'Other complaints are that iTunes [Apple's online music store] is overpriced and the format is not easily transferred on to other players. In our ethnography interviews, some long-time iPod-users told us that they have stopped updating their iPods because it's too much work, while other consumers who had bought iPods more recently had not even taken theirs out of the package to set it up.'

Yeah, initially all were in love with the iPod because for the return on effort, it seemed like magic. Consumers eventually get tired of jumping through even the tiniest of hoops to continue "enjoying" their gadgets. They want to turn it on, and not have to worry that the computer from which they're trying to transfer music is "iTunes anointed" or not. DRM-fatigue, finally, sets in (it's about time!).

This is the SONY walkman all over again, then the SONY CD walkman... it's done. It's hard to imagine quantum leaps of coolness and convenience beyond an iPod or video iPod. The curve had to level, there just isn't any there there. Apple should be happy with what they've done, but I don't think this is a growth niche any longer.

Inevitable

[spikestabber]

Well we are speaking the inevitable here. No fad ever lasts forever.

Re:Inevitable

[gormanly]

Of course. Because the iPod only sold 1/3 more in both the first and second quarters than last year. But wait - it's down on last year's Christmas rush sales!!!! It's in decline!! The death of the iPod is here!!!!!!! Oh wait. WTF??

Come on people, your supposed to be geeks and nerds and so inclined to actually care about real figures. Or is that not cool any longer?

Re:Inevitable

[Anonymous Coward]

Come on people, your supposed to be geeks and nerds and so inclined to actually care about real figures. Or is that not cool any longer?

Well, one of the real figures in the article says that sales dropped from 8.5 million to 8.1 million from Q2 2006 to Q3 2006, the first ever drop between those two (non-holiday) quarters.

Lemme guess, the cool thing to do is just ignore that statistic, right?

Not that this alone proves that the iPod is in decline of course (though the article has other arguments to make as well). It could just be statistical noise, not the start of a trend, etc. Still, it's real data, and ignoring it while complaining about how other people ignore real data is just dumb.

Re:Inevitable

[stunt_penguin]

Fad? What fad?

The reason that a lower number of iPods are being sold this year in comparison to last year is that more people who want an mp3 player have bought one, lowering the number of sales.

The game now is shifting a bit more towards the upgrade cycle and maintaining customer loyalty. For example, I've got a 20gb Zen Touch that I bought 2 years ago; it's a great player with excellent battery life and decent sound, but looking around, I think I'm getting towards the last quarter of it's life cycle- in about 6 months I plan to give it as a present to one of my sisters who doesn't yet have a player.

I might get myself an iPod if I evaluate that they're worth crossing over, but more likely I think I'll get myself a small, light Zen of some description. I might even go for a video/music player if it's worth the size etc.

The point is this; people still listen to music. People still use those iPods that they bought last year, 2 years ago, 3 years ago, and when something significantly better comes along or they tire of or break their current player, they'll upgrade.

Re:Inevitable

[Blondie-Wan]

That's a very fair and valid point. However, with regard to the argument iPod sales may be levelling or falling simply because of market saturation, what have overall MP3 player sales done? What is the iPod's current marketshare?

Re:Inevitable

[OceanKiwi]

"Come on people, your supposed to be geeks and nerds and so inclined to actually care about real figures." Yes, the sad thing is that a supposedly reputable british broadsheet doesn't seem to care about the figures. Of course this shouldn't surprise anyone who has actually read the Guardian.

Re:Inevitable

[Hercules Peanut]

by gormanly (134067) on Sunday September 10, @01:50PM (#16076472) Of course. Because the iPod only sold 1/3 more in both the first and second quarters than last year. But wait - it's down on last year's Christmas rush sales!!!! It's in decline!! The death of the iPod is here!!!!!!! Oh wait. WTF??

Come on people, your supposed to be geeks and nerds and so inclined to actually care about real figures. Or is that not cool any longer?

For all of the mediocre posts that received a 5 before this one, I really wish I had the mod power to give you a 6. You merrit a 5 for the first statement alone. The last line puts you over the top.

Re:Inevitable

[gormanly]

Okay, I suppose I asked for that, but last quarter's sales were (just) over 95% of the previous quarter's, so it's not much of a decline - and it's still the 3rd best quarter ever for iPod sales - behind the 2 previous quarters - and 31.8% up on the same period last year (6,155,000). I wasn't ignoring the decline, just trying to say that the claiming the death of the iPod when it's doing so well is silly...

Re:Inevitable

[subrato]

True that everything has a shelf life and may be this product is loosing its cool in US or some other country like UK but there many other countries in the world who might be doing a lil catching up on these gadgets.. Also I heard some news about Microsoft coming up with something new soon. Once everyone owns something that every other person has, they start to look for something new. Thats just the way a human mind works..Hopefully Microsoft dont delay their music player release like they have done with Windows Vista...

Re:Inevitable

[timeOday]

What does that matter? Dominance of a shrinking market wouldn't help Apple any more than it helps Palm.

an ipod full of vanilla ice songs *never*

[Anonymous Coward]

loses its cool, yo.

It's a fact. In full effect.

Represent. 50 cent is an uninsured motorist. And a rapper nowhere near as phat as tha iceman.

Lame

[Eightyford]

No wireless. Less space than a nomad. Lame.

Re:Lame

[Overly Critical Guy]

Actually, your post makes a point indirectly. Taco's comment was flat-out stupid in retrospect. And remember everyone's doom-and-gloom predictions here on Slashdot about the iPod mini?

Perhaps people should reconsider calling the iPod down for the count every six months. It's making them look idiotic. The iPod has never had a year-over-year quarter that went down in sales. Rumors are that Apple waited so long to update their iPod line this year because they've been in negotiations with major studios.

It's about time.

[Red Samurai]

The iPod always sucked. It was never the best MP3 player, it was simply the most popular and a sought after fashion accessory, and now that people are starting to realise it, they're going to go for alternatives like Creative, which is far superior and cheaper.

Re:It's about time.

[Overly Critical Guy]

I'm so sick of this meme from geeks on Slashdot that the only reason the iPod was successful is that it was a "fashion accessory." Nope, wrong. It's the most successful because of its superior interface, its superior software, and its superior hardware design. Typically, the critics claiming the iPod won due to marketing are the same ignorant yahoos who think anybody cares about Ogg.

As for the iPod "losing its cool," we've heard this every single year since the iPod's release. And then Apple releases something like the iPod nano, and all the doom-and-gloom writers suddenly go quiet and forget what they wrote. There's a major media event this Tuesday in which its expected that we'll see new nanos and a widescreen video iPod with a streaming device. This whole discussion is going to look moot.

Re:It's about time.

[weg]

and now that people are starting to realise it, they're going to go for alternatives like Creative, which is far superior and cheaper.

Too bad the sales numbers of Creative MP3 players don't reflect that:

Creative saw strong demand in all regions for its MP3 players and achieved sales of 2 million MP3 players for the second quarter in a row

This means that Apple has sold 4 times more MP3 players than Creative..

Re:It's about time.

[Anonymous Coward]

It's not the only reason that the iPod was successful, but it's a crucial factor and that can't be disputed. Most people who own iPods aren't Slashdot geeks like us. They could give a damn about interface, software, and hardware design. They give a damn about what looks cool, what their friends own (can't ever discount peer pressure / fitting in among teens), and what they can accessorize -- that last point is especially evidenced by the amazing amount of third-party iPod crap in the market that has absolutely zero to do with functionality and has been released strictly so people can fit their iPod to their personal tastes in look / fashion.

Yes, the iPod was an extremely well designed product, but discounting marketing in its success is foolish. Most people don't care about a tech product's technical features and are much more likely to buy based on what they perceive to be cool. I really doubt most people who own iPods researched their options and compared its specs, price to other MP3 players. They had simply heard of iPods, their friends owned iPods, they had seen Apple's ad campaigns, they had seen the crazy third-party market options (oh, cool, I can buy a pink leather case for it!), and that was that.

Re:It's about time.

[i_ate_god]

The iPod did win to marketing. The iPod marketing saturated everything. I see 50 meter tall ads adorning the walls of metro stations for iPods. Creative's marketing never came close to grabbing the attention of the masses.

Now, I agree, iPod's interface is superior in every form or fashion, but superior software? The iPod's ability to see how much power is left in the battery simply does not exist. Battery problems with the iPod are very well known, yet iPod is still the winner because of marketing savvy. I don't even think it has much to do with iTunes either, because the iPod was the focus of attention, not iTunes. It was only later on in the campaign that you started to see "iPod + iTunes" instead of just "iPod".

This marketing savvy of Apple's turned the iPod into a fashion accessory, and when that happened, the marketing took on a life of its own. Those white headphones made you look cool and turned everyone who wears them into a walking ad. The bigger ones cost over $300, not exactly something your average teenager could afford, and that didn't stop the iPod frenzy at all.

Like I said, I completely agree that the iPod's form and function are superior, but that DEFINATELY was not the deciding factor in iPod's success.

Re:It's about time.

[Overly Critical Guy]

Now, I agree, iPod's interface is superior in every form or fashion, but superior software? The iPod's ability to see how much power is left in the battery simply does not exist.

That's a result of the battery technology, although the iPod battery indicator is plenty accurate.

Like I said, I completely agree that the iPod's form and function are superior, but that DEFINATELY was not the deciding factor in iPod's success.

I completely disagree. You've got the process backwards--it was the iPod's form and function that made it a popular item. It didn't become popular through marketing first, and then people discovered it also happened to have superior design after the fact. The design drove its popularity, and it still does.

I just think there's a small but vocal contingent of iPod-haters who disparage the devices for no other reason than they don't want to associate themselves with something that's popular. It's an attempt in itself to appear cool and unique. I think a popular method of doing this is to criticize iPod owners as if they only bought their players because of marketing. I bought my iPod nano because of its extremely thin design, which fits easily into my pocket at the office, as well as the fact that it uses flash for its storage, making it extremely durable (I've dropped it countless times). Like I said, the nano has a superior design first, and that in turn MAKES it popular.

Re:It's about time.

[Ullteppe]

Superior hardware design? My ass. My iPod photo scratches more easily than any other gadget I have. If cellphones were built like this, they would last two months. I've ended up in encasing the iPod in a big silicone case in order for it to have some success of surviving the real world. For all of Sony's failures, the PSP actually seems more durable.

And don't come here with any "beautiful design" crap: good design satisfies both asthetics (sp?) and practicality, you shouldn't have to choose.

Re:It's about time.

[joto]

Like I said, I completely agree that the iPod's form and function are superior, but that DEFINATELY was not the deciding factor in iPod's success.

So, uhm, if ipod was TEH SHITZ, would Apples marketing campaign have been as succesful?

There doesn't really have to be just ONE deciding factor, you know! This is the same as the old discussion of why Santa wears red and white. Is it marketers from the Coca-Cola company that invented it, or is it traditional? You can argue all you want, but untill you conclude that both factors have been important in establishing todays status quo, both parties are having a one-sided discussion.

Re:It's about time.

[ericdano]

Faulty reasoning, again here on Slashdot. Go figure.

Where do you get the idea that CREATIVE is far superior and cheaper? Got numbers to back it up? Facts? Figures? Reviews?

Re:It's about time.

[i_ate_god]

I completely disagree. You've got the process backwards--it was the iPod's form and function that made it a popular item. It didn't become popular through marketing first, and then people discovered it also happened to have superior design after the fact. The design drove its popularity, and it still does.

I just think there's a small but vocal contingent of iPod-haters who disparage the devices for no other reason than they don't want to associate themselves with something that's popular. It's an attempt in itself to appear cool and unique. I think a popular method of doing this is to criticize iPod owners as if they only bought their players because of marketing. I bought my iPod nano because of its extremely thin design, which fits easily into my pocket at the office, as well as the fact that it uses flash for its storage, making it extremely durable (I've dropped it countless times). Like I said, the nano has a superior design first, and that in turn MAKES it popular.

I would go into a lengthy debate on this because like I said, iPod is the superior device, but the deciding factor was the saturation of iPod advertising which turned the iPod into a fashion symbol which then turned the marketing campaign into a self sufficient machine.

So all I'm going to say is, the Pet Rock.

Re:It's about time.

[ericdano]

"The iPod's ability to see how much power is left in the battery simply does not exist."

Really? Huh. My iPod says I have a lot of battery power left. I guess your point there is gone.

"Battery problems with the iPod are very well known, yet iPod is still the winner because of marketing savvy."

So you cite battery problems, but then say it's marketing savvy that makes an iPod a winner? Interesting argument. Faulty, but interesting. For 3 years I owned an iPod 3rd Generation, and it did start losing it's charge. However, that is to be expected. You cannot keep recharing a battery infinitely (plus some info on batteries for you).

I don't even think it has much to do with iTunes either, because the iPod was the focus of attention, not iTunes.

Really now. You think? No figging way. Maybe it was the EASE in which people can import and manage audio with the combination of iTunes and an iPod? Naw....that would be EASY.

"Like I said, I completely agree that the iPod's form and function are superior, but that DEFINATELY was not the deciding factor in iPod's success."

You really didn't give anything to support any of your claims. Seriously. Go back and try again.

Re:It's about time.

[supasam]

I've had my nano in a hard plastic case since the day I bought it. I've never had my cell phone in a case, ever. Guess which one gets more scratches. Thats right, it's my phone. Does that mean that my phone has design deficiencies? No, i think it just means that if you don't want something to get scratched, you keep it in a case.

[insert mocking whine about scratches here.]

Re:It's about time.

[i_ate_god]

Your personal experience is just that, personal. It is well known that iPod has/had battery problems. Now, whether or not it was a small incident blown out of proportion or a real wide scale problem, is completely besides the point. It could be just ONE DEVICE that malfunctioned but it's malfunctioning story propogated across the media worldwide and things got exagerated. Again, irrelevent to the fact that most people know there are battery problems with the iPod.

What's true and what's not is unimportant. It's what they believe that matters.

So I guess my point there just came back eh?

Re:It's about time.

[ericdano]

So, we can say all Dell's have battery problems that cause it to burst into flames?

Your point and argument are still Missing in Action (MIA).

Re:It's about time.

[Ullteppe]

The point being that if the nano was a good design, it wouldn't need the case. Kind of funny carrying the tiny nano around in a big case because it can't withstand the real world. I had my wife put her nano in a silicon case since the day it was bought, but the case makes the nano a lot bigger than it originally is. Now if Apple had cared to use a higher-quality plastic resin...

Re:It's about time.

[GutBomb]

shameless anectodal ipod superiority rant

I had a 20GB ipod for a while, and i loved it. unfortunately it had a love note etched in the back from my ex wife so I wanted to get rid of it. After I sold it i went ahead and tried a creative zen 20GB instead. it was missing a vital feature for me. the ability to shuffle by genre, like i always did on my ipod (set it to the genre in which i want to listen to, then shuffle the songs). Future zen players may have rectified it, but at the time, this was what was available. Also, I couldn't use itunes, which I was already using for storing my music on my computer.

I took it back to the shop and exchanged it for a 30GB philips gogear. that thing was slick and was able to shuffle by genre, but I had to use windows media player to sync it, and it's photo sync took HOURS. after a few weeks with it, it started acting weird (skipping songs, etc...) so I sent it back to philips for a replacement which also started doing the same thing.

Finally I said screw it, I'm going with what i know works, so i got another ipod, a 30GB photo. muuuuch nicer. i could use itunes again, photo syncing took mere minutes, i could shuffle by genre, i could use embedded album art instead of a flaky folder.jpg method with the gogear (or none with the old ipod or cretive zen). My girlfriend then expressed an interest in an ipod so I gave her my photo and got a brand new video. again, not a single problem with it, do drm woes because i steal all my music anyway (haven't bought a music cd since 1998)

itunes has smart playlists that carry over to the ipod. itunes has a slick way of finding your music in the browse panel. mass editing id3 info is easy in this. sure i could probably get all of these in multiple other apps, but they wouldn't integrate so well with the mp3 player device, and it's a pain in the ass to use 4 apps for what i can do in 1 well designed one.

again, this is all just opinion, but the poo-pooing of the ipod from people that don't even understand all of these features makes it seem like they are just the types that are "too cool for school" and don't want to use anything that's popular. they are probably also using some obscure browser on some obscure operating system listening to some obscure music encoded in some obscure format on some obscure mp3 player software.

Re:It's about time.

[Anonymous Coward]

oh, and in case you don;t know what smart playlists are, they are auto-populating playlists based on criteria in the mp3's metadata such as artist, song title, album, genre, release year... anything in the id3 tag. i have a huge collection of depeche mode stuff, but if i want to hear an 80's playlist it picks up most of the depeche mode, so it turns into essentially a depeche mode playlist. i can combat this by making a smart playlist that contains all songs released between 1980 and 1989 and excluding depeche mode (and ministry because i've got a lot of those too)

Re:It's about time.

[Nyall]

>>iPod's interface is superior in every form or fashion

How do you change the volume and scroll through the menu system at the same time ?

The next music player I get is going to have dedicated volume buttons.

Re:It's about time.

[Anonymous Coward]

Bullshit.

Most of the people I know that own an iPod no nothing about the interface, design, or how slick it is. To assume your reasoning would imply that there was some comparison shopping and checking around and trying out various models first and the Ipod came out on top after some type of hands on review. They were gifts or bought for themselves because they wanted a music player and it is popular. There was no comparison shopping at all. Go to your accounting or HR department as ask the first person in there why they bought an iPod and how many other players or other models they've had or looked at before they bought an iPod. My guess is just about zero will have even looked anywhere else. Ask them if they can name another model of portable music player besides the iPod. I bet they can't. Not there is anything wrong with that because the iPod is a decent unit but how can someone make a decision of superior interface and design when they NEVER looked at anything else to compare it to? The only way in hell anyone could determine the "superior software" would be to have actually used software or a music store other then iTMS as well. Are you going to honestly claim that is the case and people made a decision AFTER doing a comparison? I call complete bullshit. I would venture a guess that 98% of iPod owners never had or used or even touched a comepeting model ever and have NOTHING to compare the iPod too.

Re:It's about time.

[i_ate_god]

Dell's situation is irrelevent. It happened to Apple, pointe finale.

Re:It's about time.

[ericdano]

Dell's situation is totally revelant (at least spell the word right moron).

There were a few bad iPod batteries. Ok. So, lets look at your statement again.

"Now, whether or not it was a small incident blown out of proportion or a real wide scale problem, is completely besides the point. It could be just ONE DEVICE that malfunctioned but it's malfunctioning story propogated across the media worldwide and things got exagerated."

So Dell is irrevelant? I don't think so. I think the Dell thing has gotten as much bad press as the iPod battery issue if not MORE.

Your whole argument is still MIA.

Re:It's about time.

[PygmySurfer]

Dell's situation is totally revelant (at least spell the word right moron).

Uhh....

Re:It's about time.

[ericdano]

Oops, relevant not revelant or irrelevent. My bad. Typed it wrong.

Re:It's about time.

[MtViewGuy]

Creative has decent low cost players but seriously, the biggest competitor against Apple could end up being Sandisk. If you're seen the Sansa e200 series players, these players are among the first portable music players that can compare successfully against the iPod Nano series.

Re:It's about time.

[Lex-Man82]

I bought a 1 gig creative zen the other day and looking through the price listings it seemed that there wasn't much difference in prices from Creative to Apple. The 30 gig video I pod was £177 while the 30 gig Creative Zen vison m was £179.98 making apple cheaper at the high end at least on one UK based web site.

Although the 1gb Creative Zen V 1GB was £64.99 and the Apple 1GB Nano was £99.99. So there is a bit of a large gap in the cheap end.

www.ebuyer.com was my source if your interested. I bought the 1gb zen although I think I should have got somthing slightly larger.

Running out of Customers??

[EEBaum]

Seems kinda obvious to me... we're running out of people who want one and don't have one already.

Re:Running out of Customers??

[moankey]

Exactly same reason why PC sales have been declining. The average person doesnt need more than 1-2 ipods or PC's, of course slashdot regulars are the exception.

Re:Running out of Customers??

[Jim Hall]

I agree. But it also might be that the iPod is a pretty solid piece of hardware. Even though hard drive capacities increase over time (you can get a bigger iPod next year) the iPod device itself will last a long time with moderate care. I replaced my 2-year-old 3rd gen iPod when the battery failed to hold a charge longer than an hour, not because it was otherwise broken. (And had the battery been easily user-replaceable, I probably would have done that instead.)

Re:Running out of Customers??

[rolfwind]

OTOH,

Since they are releasing "upgrades"/features on every generation of iPod - I think it's time for Apple to release a PDA, perhaps integrated into the iPod (since they are making bigger screens for movies anyway).

I would snap one of those up if it played .ogg as well. All the Windows CE devices on the market have a clunky OS and Palm (the company) seems unstable.

Right now, I don't think watching movies on a tiny screen is a great incentive for most people, though I'd love to be able to share short clips of things ala youtube.

Re:Running out of Customers??

[mr1337]

I hope you're only speaking of exceptions to the PC rule. I mean, c'mon. The general public thinks the iPod is the latest and greatest Mp3 player, but seasoned Slashdotters will surely have enough knowledge to pick a better one. (Or at least one that's not associated with Apple.)

Re:Running out of Customers??

[g-doo]

Running out of people where? Although the iPod is sold widely overseas, there are still many customers in the world who would like to purchase an iPod.

Re:Running out of Customers??

[noidentity]

Seems kinda obvious to me... we're running out of people who want one and don't have one already.

Sorry, it was me. I haven't bought an iPod yet.

Re:Running out of Customers??

[jandrese]

Heck, I still use my 3G iPod. It works just as well as the modern iPods, and while replacing the battery was a PITA it was far from impossible and wasn't all that expensive.

IMHO, the biggest problem with iPods is that everybody has one now, and the new ones don't really offer any features that make me want to upgrade. Video-on-the-go almost always sucks and the music playing portion is basically unchanged from the first generation iPods. The market feels a lot like the PDA market 3 years ago, where everybody who wanted one finally had one and the bottom just fell out on the new unit sales, plus the PDA functionality on cell phones stopped sucking so bad.

Re:Running out of Customers??

[hazem]

Maybe running out of people at their price points. I'd love to have an iPod, but I don't feel that they're worth $200.

I have a portable CD player that plays CDRs with mp3s. Sure, not as sexy, not quite as convenient, and not all the storage.. but it cost me $25 and I can make more CDs at about 10 cents apiece.

Offer a decent iPod for $99, and I'd probably buy one.

Re:Running out of Customers??

[Ungulate]

As someone who's on their 4th Nano under warranty, allow me to say "I wish".

First one had the screen die. Second one became permanently locked. Third one had the wheel die. Fourth one is sure to die any day. And now that the warranty is almost up, the replacement will be anything but an iPod.

Re:Running out of Customers??

[spyinnzus]

Make some friends. I caught a friend of mine before she turned her old 20 GB iPod for a new one. I paid $100 not just for a good iPod, but one chock-full of new music for me to keep or delete.

Re:Running out of Customers??

[Anonymous Coward]

I find the backlash against the iPod interesting. You automatically hate it because its associated with Apple? That is just silly. A real technical minded person would be willing to look at products from any vendor and make comparisons. There are a few things Windows is good at, and there are many practical uses for Linux. Disclaimer: I'm a BSD fan and have several Apple products including an iPod mini and an iBook G4.

I've looked at other music players. Many of them use Windows media bullshit which also forces vendor lockin. Apple at least makes iTunes for Windows and Mac OS. Recent windows media crap does not work on a mac or any other OS besides Windows. Obviously apple did it for marketshare. The point is, not everyone likes Windows media or creative. If I were to buy a portable music player from someone else, it would not be a creative or use Windows play4sure bs. I don't trust Microsoft enough with my content. They may thorugh a fault in the software or intentionally revoke my music rights away. I don't want that.

At the same time, I personally don't have a problem with ITMS. I use it regularly. It is a problem in the case I want to listen to music in BSD, but my laptop and iPod are used for that purpose. I connect my laptop to my receiver via an airport express or external usb soundcard. Many of you think that we should all hate DRM. I don't have a problem with DRM, but I do have a problem with how DRM is used in some cases. There is a difference. Its rather easy to make copies of your music in mp3 or audio cd form from iTunes.

The sales drop we are seeing is most likely related to the fact Apple hasn't released a killer feature for the iPod in some time. There are many used iPods on ebay and refurb ones are cheap through online sites now. When looking at new iPods, I can get a replacement for $150. Most people realized they don't need a 40gb hard drive anymore. You can buy a few gig nano and be happy. I don't think Apple has pushed people into the highend iPods and they haven't brought features people want into the lowend iPods in a pathetic attempt to try to get people to spend $300. My wife has a 40gb iPod with a bad battery. She's at a point that she wants a color screen and has never used beyond 10gb of storage capacity. She's quite happy with my iPod mini and we'll probably just buy her a new nano in a few months. Neither of us care about video iPods, but we do like color screens. I wouldn't mind a radio feature. As for video iPods, some people might like a tv tuner. I'm sure it wouldn't be used much, but it would be nice to pick up hidef signals on an iPod to get local weather during storms, etc. One feature I would really like is a built in fm transmitter in the nano. My current fm transmitter sucks batteries down like mad. It also sucks.

In the future, please post useful comments like "I dislike the iPod because it lacks ..." or "I prefer the creative players because they do ...". Imagine if this was a linux story and I just posted "Linux sucks." Not only is that commment useless, its also trolling. Of course this is slashdot so i'm sure this whole line of reasoning is useless anyway.

Re:Running out of Customers??

[sxtxixtxcxh]

that's nothing, i'm still using my 1st gen ipod. original battery too...

Re:Running out of Customers??

[mr1337]

Well, for example, I have a smartphone. The phone does everything an iPod does and more. It plays mp3's, wav's, wmv's, avi's, mpeg's, and just about anything else I can throw at it. So, with my smartphone, I have a cell phone, a PDA (wifi and telnet make a very good duo for administering my servers on-the-go), an MP3 player, a camera, a Bible, and a handheld video game platform. This, my friends, is what I am referring to when I say that seasoned slashdotters can find a better gadget than the iPod. I also apologize for my bias against Apple. There is nothing that Apple has that appeals to me. I am a developer. A gamer. A sysadmin. Apple is not for me. (and neither is the iPod)

And the lesson is...

[Crash McBang]

... obsolete your own product before the competition does it for you.

Maybe that'll happen on Tuesday, but I doubt it. Jobs can be stubborn at times.

Eh...

[derEikopf]

I doubt Wall Street is worried about summer sales being lower than Christmas sales...

Re:Eh...

[EMeta]

Seriously. For most retail industries, over 50% of their sales come in the Christmas period. For the iPod to have more than half of its Christmas quarter sales out of the holiday season shows something about its resilliance. As such, new products come out soon before the Christmas season, like the iPod nano did in mid September last year.

This is just a slow tech news week. I'm rather certain that an analysis via quarterly earnings is not decreasing.

No surprise

[Lispy]

I think its a mixture of the DRM/format lock-in, regular market saturation and growing competition. Personally I think that the lack of on the fly recording is one of the many reasons why I would get another mp3-player and not an iPod. But lets wait for Apples Showtime event and then talk about it again. Steve might have something to fix the xmas sales.

Re:No surprise

[jellomizer]

RMS is that you. Well guess what MOST PEOPLE DON'T CARE ABOUT DRM. Maybe they should Maybe they shouldn't but that isn't effecting iPod sales. It is a fact on how much music you can listen to. Most People who are going to get an iPod have gotten it now. The competitors really don't make much of a difference. iPod is selling image not technology. Threw out the day I see numerous people with the white earbuds, and very little wearing something else.

Re:No surprise

[Anonymous Coward]

DRM/format lock-in

You are confusing the iPod, which uses a number of open standards (AAC/MP3/etc; Apple Lossless is the only proprietary one I know of) and Itunes, which uses DRM to lock the content until you burn a CD and re-rip it to a non-DRM'd format.

Re:No surprise

[Cylix]

I use only mp3s on mine....

Not sure how that format lock in is stopping me from doing that, but it seems fairly broken.

Sure, it would be nice if I didn't use iTunes to load junk onto the unit, but at least that lets me keep good control over the menu/title display.

Re:No surprise

[megaditto]

You are confusing the iPod, which uses a number of open standards (AAC/MP3/etc; Apple Lossless is the only proprietary one I know of)

AAC and MP3 are also proprietary... which is the reason these codecs are not normally included with OSS linux distros.

Not that iPod users care, mind you.

Re:No surprise

[pizpot]

What we are seeing is evolution. People who ipod in public aren't mating as much and thus they are dying out. For example, I can sit at my son's soccer game with my headphones, alone and isolated, or I can chat with the other parents and have a social life... even go to parties! In a simular vien, I can sit in the car while they get out of school or I can go out and wait with the pretty moms some of whom may be single. *GONG*

Hint hint, if a female faces you, or faces directly away from you, then she may want your attention.

Re:No surprise

[Overly Critical Guy]

I think its a mixture of the DRM/format lock-in, regular market saturation and growing competition.

The mainstream public absolutely doesn't give a crap about iTunes DRM. It's so lax that you never notice it's there (and when people bring up iTunes DRM as a negative point, in almost every case you find that they've never tried it themselves). Most people's music collections are made up of ripped MP3s anyway.

As for the other two points, market saturation and growing competition have been around since the iPod came out in 2001, so that's nothing new. The market was saturated when Apple came to the game, yet they still won (pissing Creative off something awful). It seems the company performs its best when people are assuming they're down for the count. For the last 20 years, armchair pundits have been claiming Apple was dead, their products weren't selling, that "saturation and growing competition" were going to take them out, and so on.

I don't get this pervasive need to always hope for Apple's demise all the time. Without them, it'd be all Microsoft, all the time, with the awful WMA-based "PlaysForSure" dominating your music players and turning them into the typical Microsoft experience--unreliable, weird bugs and quirks, a hundred ugly little pieces of hardware running Microsoft software with no seamless vertical experience like you get from Apple.

Look, new automobiles have freakin' iPod dock ports built into them. The iPod isn't going away anytime soon.

Personally I think that the lack of on the fly recording is one of the many reasons why I would get another mp3-player and not an iPod.

I assume you mean you want it built-in, because the iPod has had built-in recording functionality for years now, accessible with add-ons like the Griffin iTalk.

Re:No surprise

[Afrosheen]

People don't care about DRM until they run into problems it causes. Like not having a video card with component or hdmi inputs for their HTPCs so they can record from a digital set-top box. Like not being able to use iTMS music on other devices. Like not transferring music FROM their iPod TO their computer if their computer's hard drive dies. The list just goes on and on.

  Digital Rights Management is a fucking nightmare if you want to do anything with any digital media these days. The rights are not yours, they're the content producers. BTW the word is 'throughout', not threw out. ;)

Re:No surprise

[jZnat]

Most people don't care about DRM because either they've never encountered it (just use CDs or download MP3s) or don't know even about it. Geeks like us care about it because we're forward-thinking people and want to prevent a probable future of DRM.

Re:No surprise

[Anonymous Coward]

Like not having a video card with component or hdmi inputs for their HTPCs so they can record from a digital set-top box.

LOL, well there's one person put off my DRM, poor guy.

Like not being able to use iTMS music on other devices.

What exactly makes you think that the average consumers care about this? I think there was one class action law suit a whil back with a couple thousand people, haven't heard from it since I don't know when. Boo hoo.

Like not transferring music FROM their iPod TO their computer if their computer's hard drive dies.

Another "if" situation that really doesn't matter. This will be an issue for 0.00000000001% of iPod users, and if it makes the RIAA more willing to enter the digital realm, fuck all three of them.

The list just goes on and on.

Oh, does it? Please continue.

Digital Rights Management is a fucking nightmare if you want to do anything with any digital media these days.

The consumer wants to download his music, put it on his iPod, and listen to it. DRM does not hamper this process in the slightest.

Don't get me wrong, I don't support DRM. But I do support not being blind to what 99.99999% of iPod users are really concerned with.

Get over yourself.

Re:No surprise

[dangitman]

Geeks want to prevent the future? Sounds wacky, but actually seems accurate judging by slashdot of late. Seems that geeks are becoming more backwards-looking. Notice that whenever music or movie downloads are discussed, the typical response here is to whine "Why would I want to download stuff, I'll stick with CDs/DVDs" or "If I'm going to pay for something, I want physical media!" Almost sounds luddite-ish.

It seems the crap implementation of download services has stopped the geeks thinking of better ways to do things, and they just denounce the whole idea. Whatever happened to that geeky idealism and forward-thinking? Most comments appear to be reactionary.

Re:No surprise

[jZnat]

I think it's due to the large amount of libertarians here, but that's just me.

Re:No surprise

[TheoMurpse]

I don't know what you're talking about. Plug a microphone into a full-sized iPod and you can record. It's a great way to tape lectures if you're in college.

Re:No surprise

[Builder]

I noticed iTunes DRM. I was going home to visit family and at the last minute I dumped some stuff that I knew my dad would like a listen to onto my laptop (from my main machine). 9000KM later, I fired up the laptop and tried to play the tracks for my dad, only to get told that the machine wasn't authorised to play these tracks. WTF? I PAID for these didn't I?

I know that some of you will tell me that I should have checked this and tested it before I left, and to you I have one message - FOAD. I buy something, I should be able to use it wherever, whenever. I shouldn't have to ask permission just to listen to my CDs in the car when I bought them for my CD player in the living room. At least when I rip music from CDs it is totally portable, and buying CDs second hand saves me a fortune and denies the RIAA sales revenue.

So there I was, a long way away from the nearest Internet connection with a bunch of 1's and 0's that I couldn't do a damn thing with.

I bought 4 tracks from the itunes music store before that trip. I'll never buy another one.

These are initial sales only

[stuboogie]

Not to worry. These are just initial sales figures. They had to reach a saturation level at some point. Apple will still do fine, especially when people have to start replacing their iPods once the batteries start to hit end-of-life.

So What?

[notnAP]

So a tech product, wildly successful to be sure, which was introduced a few years ago has started to reach saturation?
Hmmmm.... Fanbois around the world can only hope that Steve Jobs has the ability to foresee this predictable lifespan development. Maybe the guy who invented this industry will be able to come up with a new idea to revive its sales and move it forward. Maybe something like extending the business model to movies, or something like that.

Locked in

[Nrbelex]

It will be interesting to see how many people stick with the iPod/Apple even as it loses popularity since their entire music collection is based on iTunes Fairplay music. Hopefully this could serve as a warning to the masses about DRM.

Re:Locked in

[MoneyT]

Possibly, but I doubt it. To consumers DRM is just another format, like CD, VHS, Beta or what have you. In the end you have to convert. They've done it before (8track to audio to CD) and they're doing it again (VHS to DVD) and they will do it again (iTunes to format du jour). It's also worth noting that just because you're in an un DRMed format doesn't mean you'll be able to keep it forever without converting. When the next big thing rolls around for portable music players, MP3 can just as easily be left unsupported.

Re:Locked in

[Nrbelex]

It's also worth noting that just because you're in an un DRMed format doesn't mean you'll be able to keep it forever without converting. When the next big thing rolls around for portable music players, MP3 can just as easily be left unsupported. True but it's a heck of a lot easier going from a widely used format with universal support (MP3, etc.) to the next format (so long as it's digital) than from a proprietary system that could be illegal to work around the DRM to the next format. Either way, I'm glad not to be locked in.

Re:Locked in

[Khmer Luge]

I don't know anyone--anyone, from Apple employees to grandmothers--whose iPod is full of only DRMed music. The iTunes default AAC format does not have DRM on it. You can freely convert away from .m4a files. Only the songs purchased from the iTunes music store have DRM. Maybe what you are saying is just ignorance and not deliberate FUD, but either way, it's vastly misleading. It's true of almost all other players, too. Zune or whatever won't be an exception. They will not sell if they only play fake DRM music. An iPod or a Nomad or whatever is perfectly usable without DRM, no matter what Cory Doctorow screams. Sorry.

Coolness factor

[TheFairElf]

This was more or less expected. A few years ago, owning an iPod was still a novelty but nowadays everyone has it - it's just not as cool anymore. It's the same reason the RAZR phone doesn't raise eyebrows anymore. Things seem to be lining up for Microsoft when the Zune comes out.

Re:Coolness factor

[vistic]

When it comes to "Coolness Factor" I think it's safe to say that the Microsoft Zune is pretty much dead on arrival.

Re:Coolness factor

[mtjs]

Err... have you SEEN the Zune? It's an OLD Toshiba mp3 player and looks like a plastic toy. I'd rather would want _ANY_ mp3 player above the Zune. Then again. I have an iPod. I think it is cool and slick. And I'm pretty sure Apple will release my next portable music and/or video player before the end of the year. It is normal that ppl who didn't bought an iPod but some thing else to say their player is cooler and better than the iPod. The only thing I can say is that my iPod is cool and does all I want coz I don't know any other player. I've seen the Zen and that one is IMPOSSIBLE to navigate. iPod may be lose some coolness coz 'everyone has one' but it will never lose it's edge.

Duh

[Supersonic1425]

it's basic business. product lifecycles are virtually all the same. launch, rise, saturation and decline. right now ipod reaching saturation, and it will go into decline sooner or later. that said, it is still very profitable for Apple, and the brand is still stupidly strong. it will most likely stay like that for a few more years at least.

this is news?

Re:Duh

[rspress]

I have an iPod and I don't really care if it is hip or not. I have tried others before buying and the iPod is the best no other has really come close. I really don't think it is market overload but device overload. I used to carry my wi-fi palm with my quite a bit but with the razr it stays home now. As more and more music phones hit the market the need to grab and iPod for a quick trip across town is not happening, you will take your cellphone however.

I doubt Apple is losing any marketshare to other MP3 player company they are losing to phone makers. Apple needs to release a phone now that is as cool as the iPod and not feature restricted like other models have been.

Re:Duh

[rm999]

It is potentially big news.

"Wall Street is reportedly starting to worry that the bubble will burst."

Apple, in many ways, depends on the iPod for its current strength. If the iPod were to suddenly die, Apple would be very, very screwed (the only other product that has mass appeal is the macbooks, and those are not nearly at the same level due to pricing). This is why people have been watching "iPod killers" so closely.

Personally, this is the first time ever that I would not consider an iPod if I had to replace my current MP3 player (an iPod mini). The nanos are overpriced compared to competitors who offer more features and more space. I would seriously consider SanDisk's new player, for example.

And as the article mentions, cellphones are starting to become a feasible replacement. I could replace both my current cell phone and iPod with a single phone that takes a memory card. It wouldn't hold as much (that will come in a year, I predict), but it would take up a lot less pocket space.

When I first bought my iPod 2 years ago, none of these were feasible alternatives. Competitors had crappy flimsy products that were too big for my pocket, and cell phones that "tried to do it all" just sucked. Not anymore...

Re:Duh

[ivan256]

When I first bought my iPod 2 years ago, none of these were feasible alternatives. Competitors had crappy flimsy products that were too big for my pocket, and cell phones that "tried to do it all" just sucked. Not anymore...

It's not the competition, or any other device that is going to be an 'iPod killer' though. It's the iPod itself... Read your own post. You aren't not buying an iPod because some other player is better/cheaper/cooler. You're not buying an iPod because you already own one. The percentage of the population that has an interest in portable digital music players but doesn't already own one is tiny.

Dispite all the analyst trash talk about who was going to take over Apple's mp3 player market share, the answer turned out to be 'nobody'.

Re:Duh

[maxume]

I bought a 1 gig sd card for my camera last year, for ~$60. Last time I looked, 4 gig sd cards were $65 on newegg. If I can get a 16 gigabyte card next year for 60 bucks, I don't think I have any interest in a player that won't take arbitrary size sd cards, and I really don't think I need something with a spinning disk in it. Even 4 gigabytes is a lot of music, 16 is insane(what, around a weeks worth straight thru?). Add a card, get another week.

The market for special purpose, hard disk based players certainly isn't going to get any bigger at this point.

Re:Duh

[fm6]

Profitable or not, you need a growing market to retain Wall Street's favor.

Re:Duh

[Omestes]

Before I got my 20g iPod I went through a couple SD players, and found them less convenient than a CD. I don't like having to sort or what I really plan on listening to over the next week, hunting down the files, transfering them, and then realizing 20 miles away that I really wasn't in the mood for whatever I was thinking at at home. I have 3 SD players sitting in a closet somewhere, and when my iPod dies (3g, with three years of use, no problems as of yet), I'm not going to be taking them out of the closet either. I'm not recomending an iPod, per se, but a large (15+ gigs) HD player is about as good as yur going to get, and they really aren't to expensive, I've found comparible players (not Apple) for $100-$150.

My problem with non-Apple players is my own fault. Half of my music is AAC now, and a good 10 disks worth is in iTMS protected AAC, which doesn't seem to play on many vanilla MP3 players. I might be mistaken.

Re:Duh

[maxume]

I hear ya, but 512 megabytes and 16 gigabytes are pretty different. I currently have 512Mb(built in, but with sd expansion available) and don't plan on upgrading anytime real soon as it works great for what I use it for. It would be great to take everything, but to me, taking 16 gigs(it appears flash will be there in the next 18 months) is a pretty good compromise versus the relative fragility and size of a disk based player.

Re:Duh

[rm999]

MP3 players are still changing at a fast enough rate that the new features in a given player are enough to make me want to upgrade. In addition, iPods are not very well built. I am actually going to be looking at a new player soon because the harddrive in mine is starting to fail sometimes. I know another person who upgraded recently due to size; the new flash based players are tiny in comparison to the 1st generation iPods.

Re:Duh

[foniksonik]

Ah but what's great about the iPod is that it is safe for ~all ages. Which means that a new generation of users is always 'just around the corner'. There will be millions of parents who will buy them for their kids this year... a) because they themselves weren't financially capable or b) the kid was too young and now isn't.

market saturation?

[Anonymous Coward]

Umm, didn't it occur to people of the idea of market saturation? At some point, everyone who wants an ipod either can't afford it or already has it at this point. It's kinda obvious decline of sales would eventually happen. That being, ipod will still remain successful for various reasons like [insert reasons why ipod is great] so why would they worry? If you have stock in ipod short time, you already know of it, if you are in it for the long time, as long as it's successful, does it really matter? Seriously, what's the expectation of these people.

because one you buy one...

[josepha48]

.. you don't need to have another one, unless the first one breaks. Its like TV's. You go out, buy a TV. For most people the next time they buy a TV is when their TV breaks. My TV's have lasted about 10+ years. I'd imagine that the iPod should last at least 3 years.

Re:because one you buy one...

[Anonymous Coward]

I've owned an ipod since 2001, yes it's a 5 GB brick that I have never needed to replace. I've been using it about 2-3 days a week for the last 5 years, and the battery is still good for about 6 hours (originally was about 9 hours, 10 according to Apple) if one doesn't switch back and forth. Of course I have it properly defragmented. Only time when it "failed" (rebooted on it's own) was when getting out of a 25 degree Celsius room out to the street at minus 5, while holding it on my hand. Greatest piece of technology I've ever owned (and hacked).

Gasp!

[Jerf]

Market not infinite. Film at 11.

Re:Gasp!

[Plutonite]

You are wrong of course. The porn market is very much infinite.

glad

[Anonymous Coward]

What will happen. Will podcasts just cease to be called podcasts? And will people finally stop using 'iPod' as if it's the same as saying 'digital audio player', or as if it's something seperate to one?

I for one am glad sales are declining. Everyone who ever wanted one iPod has now gone through two or three, and realised that items in this world are not supposed to be designed to break and be replaced so are buying alternatives.

I never liked iTunes...

Ofcourse

[ZeroExistenZ]

Who wants to be a flocking person? 12 million Ipods, how does that make you feel unique and cool when you have something that everyone is carrying?

I still haven't bought an Ipod in any form :)

Re:Ofcourse

[Eightyford]

Who wants to be a flocking person? 12 million Ipods, how does that make you feel unique and cool when you have something that everyone is carrying? I still haven't bought an Ipod in any form :)

Some people choose electronics for reasons other than status symbols. The only thing worse than going out of your way to fit in is going out of your way to not fit in. IMHO.

Re:Ofcourse

[Overly Critical Guy]

Who wants to be a flocking person? 12 million Ipods, how does that make you feel unique and cool when you have something that everyone is carrying?

People get iPods because they're fun and easy to use, not to appear "unique and cool." Whenever someone makes that criticism, they come off--to me anyway--as really bitter and desperate to appear unique and cool themselves by disparaging a popular product.

I still haven't bought an Ipod in any form :)

Dude, you are super-cool! It makes you enlightened if you purposely skip out on a really good piece of technology!

Re:Ofcourse

[Anonymous Coward]

Well, it's the same mentality that drives people to buy Windows PCs. Mac users, on the other hand, couldn't care less what the other 97% of the world is using, as long as their platform works for them (and it does).

The iPod was over the minute Apple made it PC-compatible. Fortunately, the Mac, as opposed to the iPod, is so far relatively unspoiled by bandwagon-jumpers and Johnnies-come-lately.

Re:Ofcourse

[teflaime]

People get mp3 players too be uniqute??? Hmmm. I thought people got MP3 players to play MP3. And to be honest, I haven't found an MP3 player that is as easy to setup and use, with the same kind of capacity as the iPod yet. The Zen tries, but ultimately fails for me. Besides, I like iTunes. But, it all comes down to personal preference. 60 million users like iPods. Fewer than that like the others.

Re:Ofcourse

[thebes]

Example: Goths

Re:Ofcourse

[ZeroExistenZ]

Dude, you are super-cool! It makes you enlightened if you purposely skip out on a really good piece of technology!

I believe you nicely prove my point. I generally don't buy technology I don't have use for; I bought a MP3 player a few years ago which acts for me more as a memory stick then an MP3 player.

Now why would I then buy an Ipod to not use it? Or when I have an alternative already?

I bike partially to work, so using some earplugs would make me more detached from my environment which is quite dangerious as a biker. Sitting on the train afterwards being anti-social when I'm not in the mood for music yet as I'm preparing my meetings or papers I'm writing or socializing or whatnot I have no use for the thing either.

your use of the word "skip" illustrates quite clearly how you feel you'd be "missing out" what "others are not missing" and you want to "belong" or see your Ipod as status or whatever. It's with every hype the same; people have to have the new toy, even more so when . Once everyone has it, it loses its mystique or appeal and people search for the next new thing. I just often question the drive behind that drive that brings everyone to buy something they don't really need and lose interest in shortly after.

Re:Ofcourse

[Peter Bonte]

We make it unique with the accessory's, combined it gives us millions of unique combinations from ordinary to luxurious, from casual to geek. No other player has this, you ether buy a ordinary MP3 player or an iPod.

The last revision is almost a year ago i think and that is a very long time for a high tech gadget, Apple is just making an extra profit on it. Actually i'm surprised the sales aren't much less than the 8.1 mlj, this only proves that the iPod is becoming a commodity product that is bought when needed and not when there's a new model.

Re:Ofcourse

[Overly Critical Guy]

your use of the word "skip" illustrates quite clearly how you feel you'd be "missing out" what "others are not missing" and you want to "belong" or see your Ipod as status or whatever.

As much fun as you're having playing armchair psychologist here, I used the word "skip" because the way you worded it in your post implied that you were purposely not buying an iPod because others had iPods. If you don't have an iPod simply because you don't need one, then the point didn't apply to you.

I just often question the drive behind that drive that brings everyone to buy something they don't really need and lose interest in shortly after.

Your assumption here is that people who buy iPods are mindless sheep who have no need for it and keep it on a shelf as a status symbol. I just don't buy it. It sounds like bitterness over a piece of technology you apparently don't like becoming very popular with a lot of people.

Re:Ofcourse

[ZeroExistenZ]

Your assumption here is that people who buy iPods are mindless sheep who have no need for it and keep it on a shelf as a status symbol. I just don't buy it. It sounds like bitterness over a piece of technology you apparently don't like becoming very popular with a lot of people.

Well it couldn't be millions of sheep...

I'm not bitter, and certainly not about what people go out to buy. But it's very often people do go out and buy things for emotional reasons. That's not denyable.

Re:Ofcourse

[Overly Critical Guy]

What's wrong with a product that appeals to emotion? That's what good design does (just like automobiles). Look at Apple's higher-ups--a lot of them come from the art and architecture world. Apple approaches its products with that kind of mindset, wanting to create things that look and feel good and would be something you'd want to keep with you at all times. It's a far cry from their competitors, who design ugly-looking hardware with cheap plastic, pointless lines and seams, and give them unpalatable engineering names like "Sony XT-135zc."

Creating a device that people feel an emotional attachment to requires superior design in both hardware and software. The iPod fits the bill, and that made it #1.

Re:Ofcourse

[BrainInAJar]

"Mac users, on the other hand, couldn't care less what the other 97% of the world is using"

What sort of bizzare universe are you living in? Mac users precisely care what other people use... Just look at apple's marketing for god's sakes!

Not "we make a good product, try it :) " but "PCs are for stupid old losers like this guy... you will buy one!"

Re:Ofcourse

[FreakyGeeky]

Flocking? I bought the iPod so I wouldn't have to take binders full of CDs in my car everywhere I went, not to feel "unique" or "cool".

Re:Ofcourse

[PygmySurfer]

Not "we make a good product, try it :) " but "PCs are for stupid old losers like this guy... you will buy one!"

Another interpretation of those ads would be "Our product is better than a PC"

Part of the cycle

[Anonymous Coward]

The MP3 player market is highly saturated now partly because of the success of the iPod. Apple probably realizes this and seems to be moving even more into content distribution, which will hopefully take advantage of their large base of iPod users.

What to worry about?

[Klaidas]

Wall Street is reportedly starting to worry that the bubble will burst.

What's to worry about? IT WILL.
We had cassette walkmans popular. No more.
We had CD players popular. No more
We had mp3 players popular. No more
We have iPods popular. After some time, we will not.
That's how hardware, software and all the computing works. After some time we will be laughing at those iPods, because we will have something new.

Re:What to worry about?

[Overly Critical Guy]

We had PCs. We still do.
We had Nintendo Gameboys. We still do.
We had cell phones. We still do.
I could go on and on here.

We had mp3 players popular. No more

Huh? MP3 players are popular.

You guys have been predicting for five years now that the iPod was on its way out. I trust that prediction just as much as I trust the predictions you guys made when the iPod mini came out, or when the original iPod came out. Seriously, go back and read the discussion and laugh at how short-sighted people were.

Re:What to worry about?

[Klaidas]

Well, we had Commodore 64, and I guess someone still does in their garage, but I'm talking about master popularity - like iPod were and still are.
I know someone still uses floppies to transfer data and watch movies over a VHS. But I'm talking about, again, master popularity at the moment.

Re:What to worry about?

[Overly Critical Guy]

I would consider PCs and cell phones as having "master popularity," wouldn't you?

Re:What to worry about?

[jonbryce]

We had analogue cell phones which weighed about 5kg, had a battery life of about 10 minutes and worked within a 1km radius of large city centres, but only outside, away from high buildings. Cell phones have moved on since then.

We had portable music players, and we still have them. They used to store their music on strips of plastic coated in rust, and could hold about 45 minutes of music. Portable music players likewise have moved on since then.

Re:What to worry about?

[Anonymous Coward]

Haha, do u really see an iPod as an TMA mobile phone 5Kg??

I really think iPods are one of the most advanced multimedia players. I don't think they will lose popularity because of specs, a 60GB mp3/video player is not so common, there aren't much like iPods.

Re:What to worry about?

[jonbryce]

I see the original Sony Walkman as a TMA 5kg mobile phone. I see the ipod as a resonably uptodate GPRS phone, like the Motorola Razr.

Yes, the ipod is one of the most advanced media players around at the moment, but it isn't going to stay that way forever. The thing that replaces it may well come from Apple, just like the first mobile I saw was a Motorola, and they are still in the market.

Re:What to worry about?

[Anonymous Coward]

We have iPods popular. After some time, we will not.

I'm wondering what's next then...

What this really means is...

[Anonymous Coward]

Apple's strategy of built-in obsolescence obviously isn't effective enough.

Christmas

[Eightyford]

I think everyone knows that consumer electronics sell better around Christmas. Comparing holiday season sales to summer sales is like comparing apples to oranges...

Re:Christmas

[Anonymous Coward]

I would say RTFM, but even the _summary_ of the article addresses this argument. iPod sales went _consistently_ upward for five years, then recently went down for the first time. In other words, in the past, sales went up even after Christmas (due to after-Christmas sales maybe?). This year they didn't, and they dropped in Q2 relative to Q1 as well.

Re:Christmas

[zippthorne]

Which as it turns out aren't as different as they're made out to be.

it's simple economics

[b17bmbr]

the ipod is facing the only serious competition from, guess what?, older ipods. the problem is sort of like cell phones. everyone who wants one pretty much has one. the market now is as much keeping current customers and luring switchers. for the ipod, the problem is that the ipod you bought last year is still perfect for your needs. the number of people who really want one and can buy one but have one is probably very small. it's not so much as a fad as more market equilibrium. the ipod targeted a certain sector in the market. not too many older folks are going to buy one, and as for younger people, it's hard to justify to mom and dad you need a second ipod.

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[kamapuaa]

Yeah, initially all were in love with the iPod because for the return on effort, it seemed like magic. Consumers eventually get tired of jumping through even the tiniest of hoops to continue "enjoying" their gadgets. They want to turn it on, and not have to worry that the computer from which they're trying to transfer music is "iTunes anointed" or not. DRM-fatigue, finally, sets in (it's about time!).

The majority of iPod users use MP3s, which aren't affected by DRM. And DRM isn't anything at all new to iPod, either. There's no reason to assume the correlation that you take as a given. Any random anti-DRM screed is sure to get modded +5 on Slashdot, but you should put in the extra work and have it at least make some kind of sense.

And it isn't a scientific survey, but every person I know who's technologically savvy enough to be downloading MP3s is also downloadings .avi's. Here in China MP4 compliance is a big selling point for cell phones, PDAs, and other random gadgets. I gotta believe it's the same in the US. Amazon may not be impressing people, but that has more to do with the price than the fundamental concept.

News Flash!

[Ochu]

Analysts in turmoil over "people buy more at Christmas shock"!
Fireworks makers puzzle over mysterious early-summer surge in demand!
Sales of Bush/Cheney 04 bumper stickers down 100%!

Losing its cool?

[vistic]

The iPod is not uncool or unhip... the fad isn't over.

Look around, iPods are everywhere and everyone is happy.

If sales are declining it's just because we all already have one.

I personally have a 4th gen 20GB click-wheel iPod. The color screens, video, photos, nano sizes, &c. haven't been enough to make me set aside the iPod I have to get a new one for another few hundred dollars. My iPod works how I expect it to and I'm happy. I won't be upgrading probably until this iPod is either stolen or broken, which I hope won't even ever happen.

If Apple wants to make people buy a SECOND iPod even though their current iPod works fine, they're going to have to add some compelling new features. I'd buy an iPod phone probably. Not so much because I want my phone and MP3 player in one device (but it would be nice if done properly: one less thing to carry around), but my current Motorola phone is horrible and I have some confidence that Apple would actually make a great phone with a good user interface. Every user interface on every cell phone out there right now is pretty much horrible; Apple could do a lot in this area.

I might get some sort of cool iPod car stereo. (Currently, I connect my iPod using the headphone jack to the Aux. in on the back of my Sony car stereo using a cable I got from Radio Shack... I'm talking about a REAL iPod car stereo, like a car stereo with a hard drive and wireless so I can send songs to my car in the garage from my computer in the house.) Supposedly there may be a touch-screen iPod coming? A touch-screen alone won't get me to buy another.

But yeah, iPods are still cool. There is no backlash. All the other MP3 players still are lacking in one way or another. iTunes is still a great way to manage music on the computer. People are happy. Apple has done great.

Re:Losing its cool?

[Anonymous Coward]

Steve. . .is that you?

Re:Losing its cool?

[bilbravo]

I was looking for this comment... this is exactly what I was thinking.

In addition, most people who are thinking about buying one has decided that there may be a new one coming out, OR just the fact that not everyone buys $300 gifts for themselves all the time... which is why there were 14 million sold during Christmas. I'd say wait until year-end and those numbers will be back up there again.

However, there are enough alternatives that Apple might not see 14 million sold...

I'm sure that Apple is (or should be) more concerned about iTunes sales... they don't produce the music, only provide an avenue for distribution... that should be their bread and butter now. Too bad they won't let others play nice with iTunes.

Re:Losing its cool?

[Anonymous Coward]

Actually, sales are increasing quarter for quarter. That is (as pointed out by an earlier poster) the iPod sold 1/3 more in both the first and second quarters than last year. Doing like the "expert" in this article and comparing the last two quarters to last year's Christmas rush sales and then saying the iPod is on the way out is about as dumb as trusting Microsoft to design open standards.

Re:Losing its cool?

[TeamSPAM]

I was a semi-early adopter of the iPod as I've used macs for a long time. The main reason I bought a new iPod last year? I burned the optical laser out of the cd player in my car. It refused to read any CD. The Honda dealership wanted $1000 bucks to replace the OEM unit. Screw that! I went a bought a new head unit, iPod adapter and new iPod for that much money. The only reason I bought a new iPod was the fact that my then current iPod had the older firewire connector. I won't rule out buying a new iPod, but I don't see it happening anytime soon.

Re:Losing its cool?

[Anonymous Coward]

The iPod is not uncool or unhip... the fad isn't over.

Look around, iPods are everywhere and everyone is happy.

If sales are declining it's just because we all already have one.

If everyone already has one, then it *is* uncool and unhip. Once something has become ubiquitous, it may still be popular, but almost by definition it's no longer trendy (where would it be trending towards?). Dishwashers are not cool. Lightbulbs are not hip. There is no fad around indoor plumbing.

The problem is, Apple's stock is priced in line with a growth company, and not a manufacturer of dishwashers, lightbulbs, or plumbing. With ubiquity comes diminishing profit margins: people will overpay for cool, but they consume more rationally for necessity.

According to MacDailyNews.com...

[jcr]

Q4 03: 336,000
  Q1 04: 733,000 (holiday quarter)
  Q2 04: 807,000
  Q3 04: 860,000
  Q4 04: 2,016,000
  Q1 05: 4,580,000 (holiday quarter)
  Q2 05: 5,311,000
  Q3 05: 6,155,000
  Q4 05: 6,451,000
  Q1 06: 14,043,000 (holiday quarter)
  Q2 06: 8,526,000
  Q3 06: 8,111,000

We have yet to see a year-over-year decline in sales. It is of course to be expected, that pundits seeking attention will continue to troll with "the sky is falling" articles, just like we'll keep hearing about how every also-ran is an "iPod killer".

-jcr

Re:According to MacDailyNews.com...

[Killshot]

I am sooo sick of those "ipod killer" articles.
If some new device is shown to actually be killing the ipod.. then it will not be news.

That said, I still think there is room for growth. I think the ipod is overpriced (as mac products tend to be) and if they cut prices it would open it up to all the people who have not bought one because of the price.

Re:According to MacDailyNews.com...

[jcr]

I think the ipod is overpriced (as mac products tend to be)

Econ 101: it's overpriced if people aren't buying it!

The results speak for themselves. Just because it's more than you want to pay, doesn't make it overpriced.

-jcr

Re:According to MacDailyNews.com...

[jcr]

A product shows consistent quarter over quarter growth for five straight years.

Oh, for Pete's sake. You're not seeing the forest for the trees. Look at the YEAR over YEAR growth. I have, and I'm keeping my AAPL shares.

Wake the fuck up dummy.

I'm wide awake, which you clearly aren't.

-jcr

Re:According to MacDailyNews.com...

[Killshot]

Just because some people are willing to pay a certain price does not mean all people other than myself are willing to.
That sort of assumption just makes you seem like quite a silly person.
There are plenty of examples of product prices being cut once market saturation at a certain price point has been reached.

Re:According to MacDailyNews.com...

[jcr]

Just because some people are willing to pay a certain price does not mean all people other than myself are willing to.

Did I say all?

People with far more market data than you have are setting that price.

-jcr

Re:According to MacDailyNews.com...

[Killshot]

Right, and they will set it at that price forever and ever until the end of time.

Re:According to MacDailyNews.com...

[jcr]

Do you have some kind of point you're trying to make? You claimed that the iPod is "overpriced", I debunked that claim, and now it looks like you're trying to argue against something I haven't said.

Apple has generally kept the price points steady, while expanding the iPod's capacity and capabilities over time. They've also introduced lower-cost versions of the product, going as low as $99. Because they're not going for the lowest possible cost, they're able to make it a far better-quality product than they could if they went for a Dell-style "race to the bottom" approach.

There is a science to pricing a product, and Apple's success with the iPod line shows that they're practicing it very well, indeed.

-jcr

Re:According to MacDailyNews.com...

[Killshot]

My point is if the downward trend in sales continues, the easiest way to ramp up sales is to lower prices, which is likely at some point.

Re:According to MacDailyNews.com...

[Jeff DeMaagd]

That and it's about due for an update. Some people think that it will be this Tuesday when they have a big media event planned, but it's probably within the month.

Re:According to MacDailyNews.com...

[Anonymous Coward]

Do you ever wonder if some day, you will look back on your life and realize that you wasted it on advocacy and marketing for a massive corporation that doesn't actually give a fuck about you?

Why do you care so much about iPod sales figures? Why do you take this shit so personally? Are you paid to do so, or just a fanboy? And wht are mac fans such colollsal nerds who get all rabid whenever Apple is questioned?

Re:According to MacDailyNews.com...

[Jeff DeMaagd]

If anyone has used "quarter-over-quarter" before, I heard of it. There's a reason that analysts don't use it, and that is because a lot of spending is seasonal, depending on the type of product. I would suggest that in statistics terms, 1Q06 was probably an outlier, and that the "decline" for 3Q06 was because it's due for an update. Maybe we'll see another spike like that, maybe not. I don't expect to see a major growth over last year's holiday quarter but there is market saturation to consider. We will see in the next few days and maybe next few months if they have a significant product update that will boost sales again.

Re:According to MacDailyNews.com...

[Anonymous Coward]

Do you ever wonder if some day, you will look back on your life and realize that you wasted it on anonymously trolling people who waste their time on advocacy and marketing for a massive corporation?

Re:According to MacDailyNews.com...

[NMerriam]

That's insane. It seems like the analysts are really just complaining Apple sold too many iPods for Chrsitmas 2005, that spike is so huge of course the next quarter will look smaller, even though it's bigger than every other quarter in history but the massive holiday one.

Re:According to MacDailyNews.com...

[jcr]

Why do you care so much about iPod sales figures?

Does the word "shareholder" mean anything to you, sunshine?

-jcr

Re:According to MacDailyNews.com...

[Anonymous Coward]

I'm wide awake, which you clearly aren't.

No, you're a dummy!

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[Anonymous Coward]

In addition, all the alternatives now have all the time they need to catch up, in terms of design, software and features. Sure, the initial attempts with DRM have been pretty ham-fisted, but Apple has shown that the public will happily put up with it. It's just a matter of time until every other company figures it out how to make their designs appealing as well.

Anyone have more data?

[rolfwind]

Or the graph they mention?

The article doesn't tell me much as this

[quote]From its launch five years ago its sales graph showed a consistent upward curve, culminating in a period around last Christmas that saw a record 14 million sold. But sales fell to 8.5 million in the following quarter, and down to 8.1 million in the most recent three-month period. Wall Street is reportedly starting to worry that the bubble will burst.[/quote]

could just mean that iPod sales skyrocket around X-mas time.

Though perhaps the iPod market really is saturated. I think generic 1GB mp3 players on ebay are only like $30-50 including shipping that are better than a $200, plus have the benefit of being FM transmitters (for playing in the car stereo without no installation), act as USB sticks, etcetera.

I don't know how reliable those 3rd party devices are, though.

Getting less popular? Good!

[Anonymous Coward]

As a user (and non-Apple stockholder) I'd say the best thing that could happen is that sales start to slip. That would be the biggest incentive to get busy on improvements and innovative features. Absolute market leaders tend to get lazy and complacent (see MS, Intel).

good riddance!

[potpie]

Serves them right! My girlfriend cancelled on me a few times so she could stay home and play with her new ipod. Then she broke up with me. Rot in hell you vile yet stylish machinations of satan!

Re:good riddance!

[gardyloo]

Serves them right! My girlfriend cancelled on me a few times so she could stay home and play with her new ipod.

      She told me that your random shuffle wasn't very compelling.

Re:good riddance!

[Anonymous Coward]

I don't want to know what she was soing with her iPod that would make her break up with you. waitaminute.. actually I do.

No new iPods in a long time...

[jdogg82]

I think the last time any of the iPod models were updated was last fall. Sales will likely pick up again when there's a new and exciting iPod.

Re:No new iPods in a long time...

[Deanodriver]

Of course, once Apple release new iPod models, and the Christmas quarter hits, they'll be hot property again. I reckon it's a bit premature predicting the demise of the iPod this early.

Apples to Oranges

[JohnWasser]

... and that's not nearly as much fun as comparing Apples to PC's.

Eventually, yes. Now, no.

[eshefer]

this is really a crappy article.

14 million were sold in the crazy-buy-gifts-like-there-is-no-tomorow quarter. If you want to check trends you should look at corrosponding quarters , year over year growth.

  guess what? 25% gains year over year... expect apple to sell around 20 million Ipods in the the corrosponding quarter.

Re:Eventually, yes. Now, no.

[cgenman]

Don't forget, Christmas 05 was the Nano launch craze... and those things sold insanely well as they burst onto the scene.

Of course the market is going to cool from that feeding frenzy. But let's not forget: the market is cooling from an insane buying orgy to simpy being the #1 seller with 25% year-over-year growth. It went from being doubly stupidly profitable to simply singly stupidly profitable.

With luck and a lot of norwegian designers, the next iPod launch will show correspondingly silly numbers (whenever that may be).

No wonder

[Anonymous Coward]

Every new technology follows the same pattern. Firsts few sales, then fast growth until the market gets saturated, i.e. everybody that wants the technology already has it, and then a smooth decline and stagnation - at this stage there're few new users and most sales are to replace old units.

FUD story playing to Wall Street bears

[Froomb]

The statistics cited by the anonymous contributor are deliberately misleading. A better way to look at sales for products having wide variations in season sales is to look at year-on-year figures. By that measure iPod sales continue to rack up healthy gains, and some analysts believe that that the iPod is in the "early stages of its product expansion" and can continue to grow its sales by at least 20% a year for the forseeable future.

Q4 03: 336,000
Q1 04: 733,000 (holiday quarter)
Q2 04: 807,000
Q3 04: 860,000
Q4 04: 2,016,000
Q1 05: 4,580,000 (holiday quarter)
Q2 05: 5,311,000
Q3 05: 6,155,000
Q4 05: 6,451,000
Q1 06: 14,043,000 (holiday quarter)
Q2 06: 8,526,000
Q3 06: 8,111,000

Re:FUD story playing to Wall Street bears

[wootest]

There is a downwards curve here but it has nothing to do with actual popularity decline, just with timing and new models.

Very late Q1 04, iPod mini was released, very late Q1 05, iPod shuffle was released. No new iPod has been released since the 5G ("video") iPod almost a year ago, and the only thing to up sales a bit has been a 1GB iPod nano in the middle of Q2 06 and a small iPod shuffle price drop.

Having the other three quarters not reach holiday quarter level is the norm and pretty much the only way you can beat that is by releasing new products directly following the holiday quarter. This year they didn't, and so they declined. This isn't rocket science, and it doesn't point towards or prove an overall continuing decline.

Re:FUD story playing to Wall Street bears

[I'm Don Giovanni]

I agree that generally, year-over-year per quarter comparisons are what is important, but looking at your stats, the last two quarters did show decline over the previous quarter *for the first time in iPod history*. I had assumed that each of the previous years, there was a spike during the holiday quarter, then a decline, followed by a larger spike the next holiday quarter. But that hasn't been the case. Every quarter has shown a gain over the previous quarter even if that previous quarter was a holiday quarter. So the recent decline in each of the last two quarters is indeed different than what happened in previous years.

Re:FUD story playing to Wall Street bears

[wootest]

As I posted in a sibling comment, the previous two Q1 quarters, there was a newly introduced iPod as well: iPod mini in 04 and iPod shuffle in 05. No such thing this year, only a 1GB nano mid-quarter. It is a different development like you say, but considering that, it's within the margin as far as I'm concerned.

Re:FUD story playing to Wall Street bears

[mkiwi]

some analysts believe that that the iPod is in the "early stages of its product expansion"

This is exteremely true.
"iPod" is now one of the most valuable brands in the world.
Coincidentally, this article comes at a time when Apple's stock price has made a very nice recovery. I wonder if someone is feeling a little sore because they sold their Apple stock too soon.

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[kippers]

I want an iPod.

Illogical Article

[Ffynon]

The article compares sales from the Christmas quarter to other seasonaly low quarters. This is a totally unfair comparison. It's my understanding that a fair quarter to quarter comparison shows that iPod growth has occured year over year. And I have no doubt that the calendar 4Q will bring more than 14 million iPod sales (last year's sales). Comparing sales from the non-holiday quarter is not a reasonable comparison, as so many people spend more at retail during the holiday season. Furthermore, the article argues that people will turn to mobile phones to listen to MP3s and music. This ignores the fact that no mobile phone interface has developed anywhere near as good an interface as the iPod. And that it is possible (if not probable) that Apple will enter the cell phone business, creating a phone that will play music and that competes with this threat. This article seems as though it was written by someone with a grudge.

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[FyRE666]

...DRM-fatigue, finally, sets in (it's about time!).

You know I'm glad people are finally starting to realise they're being screwed in the ass by DRM. Over the last few months I've been asked various questions by (non technical) family, friends and colleagues that all involve DRM'ed content making things awkward, and not allowing them to do what they want with their legally bought music. I'm happy to tell them why they can't play their iTunes/Napster sourced music wherever they like; hopefully they'll wake up and see where their apathy has got them.

I then mention there are plenty of places people can get all the music they like without DRM, for nothing ;-) Personally I buy quite a lot of music (about 5-6 albums a week at times). Since the RIAA consider their customers, including me, to be criminals, I've decided to act like one. I burn, rip and share it, and give away copies to anyone who asks ;-) Ironically, if there were no DRM, I wouldn't act this way.

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[Soul-Burn666]

In my opinion, portable video will never be really as successful as portable music.
Music, unlike video, requires only one sense (hearing) and can be passive while one is doing other things.
You can listen to music while you browse the web, jog, write code.
You can't really watch a video using a portable device while doing those things. (other than porn...)

It can work though for people who travel a lot in public transportation.
That niche is partly filled by portable gaming which is also an activity that requires your attention.

Why my iPod lost its cool.

[The Living Fractal]

Couple of reasons, in no order of importance:

- Backlight died after a few weeks.
- Durable construction? You could scratch the screen with cotton.
- "Innovative" touch pad.. try scrolling through ten thousand songs precisely. Not. Happening.
- iTunes (though it's easily circumventable)
- Overall versatility only increases when you hax0r it (this might actually be a plus ;P)
- Price

TLF

Re:Why my iPod lost its cool.

[FreakyGeeky]

You may not know this, but if you tagged your mp3s appropriately, you wouldn't need to scroll through a list of 10,000 songs. You can have your songs arranged by artist, album, or even genre. Now this doesn't apply if you've got some strange album with 10,000 songs on it.

Since when..

[xXShadowstormXx]

"Analysts warn that the iPod has passed its peak."

Since when have analysts been correct in their "reasearch"/assumptions?

Fool me once...

[B5_geek]

Here are my ideas why sales are slowing.

1) battery life - Enough people have been 'burned' by the poor preformance of the built-in battery. (My wife's 40Gb player only lasts 30 minutes before the battery is dead) That don't think that $100-$300 every couple of years is worth it.

2) market saturation - How many people who would like to have a portable music player, haven't heard of an ipod?

3) price/format/additional features - I recently bought an iRiver T30 (1GB) It can play .ogg (which I use for audiobooks) and a single AAA battery lasts 30+ hours. Many other 'new' MP3 players have built-in FM-tuners, FM-transmitters, etc. that are costly additions to an ipod.

4) no real reason to upgrade. The writing is on the wall for that popularity of hand-held video players, the video ipod is close, but the format (screen size/dimensions) of the PSP are damn near perfect. The first company to make an non-crippled divx/xvid/mpeg4/mp3 player will do good.

Re:Fool me once...

[pizpot]

As an engineer, I could not even consider a player with a built in battery. I got an iriver which uses one AA battery, and 4 Energizer AA rechargables. I just went on a 17 day trip to europe and took trains until I could puke, and did not run out of power. If I had, I would have popped in a regular AA which would last for 40 hours. Not to mention I've had the player and these batteries over 2 years already, and I use it everyday. Hint hint, I control the charging. I go from dead to full not up and down as I plug it in to my USB--how lame.

Same for digital cameras. Buy the ones that use CRV3 litium ion rechargables. If it dies on you, it is the same size as 2 AA batteries, so you have an awesum backup. I found that with the screen on, a pair of NiMH AA recharables last about 2 days, but the CRV3's last about 2 months. No really. Pentax all the way.

CRV3 ROCKS! Got mine and a charger from Radio Shack.

Re:Fool me once...

[Achromatic1978]

Same for digital cameras. ... with the screen on

Composing / framing a picture through the LCD screen sucks. DSLR for the win!

Even on digital compacts - use the viewfinder!

And be careful recommending substituting alkaline/NiMH for the CRV3... they're not always compatible. And often the other batteries will get far more life than the battery meter will indicate, because it's calibrated for a different voltage fall off.

You'll eventually need new Apple batteries

[Anonymous Coward]

The iPod itself may last years, but the proprietary (expensive) rechargable batteries only last about a year of constant use. There are a few MP3 players that use AA/AAA batteries - like Cowan/iAudio's G3 - sadly, players using standard batteries are the exception, rather than the rule. Standard AA/AAA batteries are better than proprietary batteries because the standard AA/AAA batteries are cheap and almost universally available. Having that nice MP3 player pretty much sucks when you don't have access to anyplace to recharge and can't replace the batteries.

Re:You'll eventually need new Apple batteries

[rthille]

I don't use my iPod that often, but the battery has lasted fine since 2004-10. Even if I needed to replace twice already at ~$17 (seems to be the going rate for a 4th gen) I'd still be better off vs. buying AA batteries. Not to mention the environmental damage from using non-recharable batteries.

Re:You'll eventually need new Apple batteries

[dangitman]

Since when was Lithium-polymer battery technology proprietary? And what AA batteries can you buy that aren't made by a (proprietary) company?

It's the holidays

[Pao|o]

Anyone in retail can tell you that places that celebrate Christmas generate substantionaly more sales than the months after. That's why video console makers always release their consoles a few months before December. I'd liek to see a comparison of the same period of decline to of the past years. If it was lower then I guess the iPod has peaked.

Making a prediction here

[Overly Critical Guy]

Honestly, all doom-and-gloom iPod discussion in this article is going to look silly after this Tuesday's media event by Apple, which is rumored to be offering new metal-enclosed nanos in multiple colors, new iPods, a cell phone, a video streaming device, and movie downloads from Disney (which also means studios like Miramax).

Let's sit back and enjoy the negative comments from iPod haters wanting to look really cool and outside-the-norm for bashing a popular piece of technology that's left them behind. After all, it's par for course around here--let's not forget the original iPod announcement or the iPod mini discussions which were oh-so-accurate in their future predictions. Ahem.

Re:Making a prediction here

[Anonymous Coward]

If the iPod allowed you to just drag your music into it mounted as a hd, using folders and subfolders, I would consider it. Playlists too.

Re:Making a prediction here

[TubeSteak]

Let's sit back and enjoy the negative comments from iPod haters wanting to look really cool and outside-the-norm for bashing a popular piece of technology that's left them behind.

Left them behind?
Maybe some people like to be ahead of the curve.

I'm sure there's a wonderful sense of community inherent in wearing the same clothes, owning the same MP3 player, etc etc etc. On the other hand, some of us don't like to be part of the herd.

I don't want an iPod, mostly because everyone else has one. I'm looking for the next thing in MP3 players, not an incremental improvement of the last generation.

Re:Making a prediction here

[waferhead]

The quality of the recent Nanos isn't helping matters---
My Grandaughter has has seen FIVE dead Nanos this MONTH.
(All battery related)

In Apples defense, they admit there is an issue, and have handled it well.

Re:Making a prediction here

[Overly Critical Guy]

You can already do that by enabling disk usage, but I don't understand what the reason for doing that would be...the idea behind iTunes is to remove the hassle of dealing with a massive folder hierarchy by using metadata.

Re:Making a prediction here

[Anonymous Coward]

I'm sure there's a wonderful sense of community inherent in wearing the same clothes, owning the same MP3 player, etc etc etc. On the other hand, some of us don't like to be part of the herd.

Wow, you're super-cool and unique because you called everyone using a popular piece of technology "part of the herd!" You even mentioned clothing, which has nothing to do with iPods!

I don't want an iPod, mostly because everyone else has one.

Congratulations on being part of a different kind of herd!

Re:Making a prediction here

[FreakyGeeky]

You know, air is so overrated. I mean, that's what EVERYONE is breathing.

Some people buy the iPod without any desire to be part of some so-called fad. It is a nice mp3 player after all.

Re:Making a prediction here

[DDLKermit007]

He posted as AC. He just has a blind hate of the iPod. Being able to drag music the the HD is really of no concern to him. If he knew anything about the hardware he'd speak differently. It's more fun to bash hardware you've never used much.

Re:Making a prediction here

[MtViewGuy]

Honestly, all doom-and-gloom iPod discussion in this article is going to look silly after this Tuesday's media event by Apple, which is rumored to be offering new metal-enclosed nanos in multiple colors, new iPods, a cell phone, a video streaming device, and movie downloads from Disney (which also means studios like Miramax).

The (likely) announcement of the replacement of the iPod Nano with a new small iPod model that sports 8 GB, 6 GB and possibly 4 GB of flash memory will likely spur sales for many months to come. Apple will likely use a much-improved (and definitely scratchproof!) case and display (rumor has it that it looks like a reduced-size version of the old iPod Mini player), and don't be surprised that the display is larger, too. I also think Apple will upgrade iTunes with a new version that is easier to configure and use, too.

Could it be because...

[Val314]

... the last iPod Update was October 12, 2005 according to http://buyersguide.macrumors.com/ and everyone is waiting for the new one?

But...

[Anonymous Coward]

...is the Nomad still cool?

Perhaps

[pickyouupatnine]

... Maybe everone that wanted to buy an iPod already has one. The rest of us are entier indecisive or don't really care for an iPod.

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[93 Escort Wagon]

"The majority of iPod users use MP3s, which aren't affected by DRM."

Since iTunes, by default, rips your music to AAC (non-DRM'ed, unlike Windows Media Player rips to WMA), I think your statement is highly unlikely. Unless you're into that whole Ballmer "The most common type of music on iPod is stolen" mantra.

I went to the trouble to do some blind listening tests to determine whether, to my ears, AAC was any better than MP3 at identical encoding rates - and indeed it seemed to be a noticably superior codec (also found out that anything above 160kbps AAC was a waste of space for me, since I had to be paying pretty darn close attention to tell the difference). So the most common type of music on MY iPod is AAC, Mr. Ballmer!

"Fad" not a poorly chosen word, iPod = fashion

[AHumbleOpinion]

I'm sure the Apple faithful (*) will violently disagree, but the parent's use of the word "fad" is not poorly chosen. Recently local MBA students (**) in a marketing class surveyed hundreds of kids in local high schools regard digital music players. Stress "digital music players", they did not ask about iPod, they did not lead the respondents(***). The kids were pretty well informed, there was a lot of comparing and contrasting of various players at school. iPods were the most popular device, no surprise there, but there was a surprise. The most popular reason for choosing the iPod over competitors was fashion, a status symbol. It was not ease of use, although ease of use was identified as a category iPod wins in. For technology and features Creative was the winner, the lack of radio was a negative for the iPod.

The team that did the survey and focus groups was very quick to point out that this was just a class project, small scale and localized. However it was similar to a pilot program that found interesting results and could be used to justify a larger national study.

(*) I own an iPod, I love it, I would buy another. I own PCs and Macs and use iTunes on both platforms. However I am not religious about music players or operating systems.

(**) Working professionals who have real jobs in industry, under the supervision of a marketing professor who does this sort of thing for rather large firms. This was a class project, not a consulting project.

(***) I was not involved in the project but did I sit in on the presentation of the results. My recollection is that the questions went something like:
Do you own a digital music player?
What models did you consider?
What model did you purchase?
Why did you purchase that model?
etc.

Re:"Fad" not a poorly chosen word, iPod = fashion

[Anonymous Coward]

People don't buy cars, furniture, or other appliances for "technology and features," they buy them to look good and integrate well into their lives. Seems to me this is more Slashdot geek mindset, where everything in the world is looked at through the veil of technical specs and feature lists instead of visual design and seamless integration. I've tried Creative's players, and they're just not as nice or as fun to use. They're doing so poorly in the marketplace that they have to pull the tactic they used against John Carmack and sue over software patents to get any kind of profitability.

Also, could you provide an actual link to this "small scale and localized" study? It would have to be a large, national study to have any real weight.

Re:"Fad" not a poorly chosen word, iPod = fashion

[Anonymous Coward]

This makes sense. When I was a teen, the "best" thing to have was Nikes. Only poor kids wore anything else. Starter brand of jackets also had this status bestowed upon them for a short time.

As I look between my $15 wal-mart sold Ozark brand sneakers which are as good as the $100 nikes in lightness, rebound, and build quality -- I have to wonder why my parents wasted money on this crap. I feel ashamed of myself in making them as well.

It's something most people grow out of (hopefully).

Re:"Fad" not a poorly chosen word, iPod = fashion

[AHumbleOpinion]

Also, could you provide an actual link to this "small scale and localized" study?

It wasn't my project, I just sat in on a live presentation of the results.

It would have to be a large, national study to have any real weight.

No one said it had real weight, just that it had interesting results that would justify such a national study. My point is merely that the GP's use of the word "fashion" is not poorly chosen as I expected some of his critics to argue.

Re:"Fad" not a poorly chosen word, iPod = fashion

[Anonymous Coward]

iPods were the most popular device, no surprise there, but there was a surprise. The most popular reason for choosing the iPod over competitors was fashion, a status symbol.

Whaaa??! I literally spit out my tea I was so surprised at this completely surprising fact! :)

Re:"Fad" not a poorly chosen word, iPod = fashion

[Tiro]

Yeah, it would be pretty badass to have a radio, especially now that the NFL season has started.

Re:"Fad" not a poorly chosen word, iPod = fashion

[NexFlamma]

I'd like to make the argument that these children were all idiots.

Point 1: They choose $400 gadgets based on fashion.
Point 2: They value the drivel on the radio (I doubt they were missing NPR).

Re:"Fad" not a poorly chosen word, iPod = fashion

[bealzabobs_youruncle]

Rating this post a 5: Informative just proves the moderation system here is still broken. You have decided you don't like the iPod and have built a huge pile of reasoning behind it, but you clearly don't speak for the majority.

Re:"Fad" not a poorly chosen word, iPod = fashion

[Tim Browse]

You have decided you don't like the iPod and have built a huge pile of reasoning behind it, but you clearly don't speak for the majority.

Oh, I don't know. Seems quite informative to me. Just perhaps not the information they meant to impart :-).

Re:"Fad" not a poorly chosen word, iPod = fashion

[BitchKapoor]

Fortunately, my parents weren't into spending a lot; the funny thing is I started getting Nikes when they moved downmarket ($40) because they consistently fit me better than other brands (narrow heels, high arches). Of course, now that Nike is so mass market, it's not as cool, and the cool (= spoiled rich) kids wear specialty brands like Merrill and Montrail (which are too heavy for general use, IMO).

Re:"Fad" not a poorly chosen word, iPod = fashion

[AHumbleOpinion]

Rating this post a 5: Informative just proves the moderation system here is still broken. You have decided you don't like the iPod and have built a huge pile of reasoning behind it, but you clearly don't speak for the majority.

Thank you for making my prediction come true: "I'm sure the Apple faithful will violently disagree"

Did you following confuse you: "I own an iPod, I love it, I would buy another. I own PCs and Macs and use iTunes on both platforms. However I am not religious about music players or operating systems."? ;-)

Re:"Fad" not a poorly chosen word, iPod = fashion

[trenien]

Yes, _that_ is pretty much the all point of 'fashion' (paying high prices for junk you wouldn't touch with a stick if it came at half price without the 'fashionable' tag).

Re:"Fad" not a poorly chosen word, iPod = fashion

[PintoPiman]

I own an iPod, I love it, I would buy another. I own PCs and Macs and use iTunes on both platforms. However I am not religious about music players or operating systems.

You're not religious over music players or OS's? In the same way that you're not cogent in your use of metaphors? Not to blame you specifically, but the comparison of decisions like Mac vs PC, iPod vs $IPODKILLER, vegetarian vs meateater, GOP vs DEM, vi vs emacs, tastes great vs less filling, yaddayadda to religion is just plain brainless. I see it all the time and I'm afraid that the time has come for a rant...

Folks choose sides in these "battles" for any number of reasons, some technical, some practical and some moral/ethical. Spirituality, faith and higher deities are not involved. So you feel some mental fatigue when confronted by complicated decisions and simply respond with defensive apathy. That's nothing to be proud of but it's fine by me I guess - there are more decisions out there to make than folks have time to commit to researching options. Something has to give. It's not ideal, but we all have to choose what we have time to care about.

What gets me is the need to move from reflexive apathy into the realm of mindless assault on those who do hold informed opinions. Does it threaten you that much that some of us might have looked into the matter and decided that Macs are more practical for security/usability reasons? Or that being a vegetarian (I'm not, but I respect those who are) is healthier, better for animals and the environment? An attempt to fight back against those who actually care about things by conflating product and lifestyle choice with religion is twice pitiful. Once because the comparison is witless, twice because it is employed as a defense of witless apathy. You do rational discourse and the worthwhile capitalist economic endeavor of choosing between products a great disservice.

Obviously you consider it a good thing that you aren't religious* about your OS decision. If you're still reading, could you perhaps explain why you think that's a good thing? Do you really think that those of us who feel differently than you do so out of some sort of faith-based commitment? Don't you feel that your characterization is hostile to the extent that it diminishes the rational thought process that we go through in order to reach a conclusion? I might be over-reacting, but I'm rather disgusted by the routine ridicule in popular culture (and even /.) of people who have strong feelings on contentious issues. Is it I or you who is really the anti-intellectual here?
end_of_rant

*I generally translate the denial of "religious" involvement in $DEBATE as "I don't know, I don't intend to find out, I'm proud of not knowing and I'm threatened by those that know."** Is that an unfair characterization? ** Ironically, GW Bush, a stellar example of this attitude, is also highly religious...

Bubble?

[cgenman]

Must everything be a bubble now?

The stock market was a bubble because everyone that bought stock inflated the price of stock for everyone else, making it look like a better growth opportunity for investment. The housing market was a bubble because everyone that bought houses inflated the prices of housing and the resultant appearance of investment opportunity similarly. And when both of which become too big, the bubble burst as there was nothing quite supporting the inflated prices and value plummetted.

The iPod does not exhibit bubble-like qualities. The iPod is a thing. Someone buying an iPod does not inflate the price for everyone else. As a thing with utility, the iPod cannot instantly decline in usefulness like a stock can.

The bubble is a useful analogy in certain investment situations. But let's not go pretexting it into conversation inappropriately.

Re:Bubble?

[Breakfast Pants]

"Someone buying an iPod does not inflate the price for everyone else."

Take a look at an econ 101 supply/demand curve. If there is more demand, producers can get away with charging more.

Re:Bubble?

[Speare]

The bubble is a useful analogy in certain investment situations. But let's not go pretexting it into conversation inappropriately.

I sure HOPE you meant that little bit of irony.

Re:Bubble?

[Jeff DeMaagd]

The thing being discussed is not the iPod on its own as a product but its market and its popularity and how Apple's stock will fare as a result if sales dropped.

Why did you insert pretexting into your post? Is that the word of the week?

Re:Bubble?

[Anonymous Coward]

And the econ 102 demand / production cost curve. The cost of producing things generally diminishes the higher the production run. So the more popular MP3 players get, the more profittaking can be reaped from the same price point, and the more competition will keep prices from inflating. Also take a look at price flexible demand curves, and historical price indexes for electronic entertainment items as they broke into mass market.

Electronics get cheaper as they get more popular.

Re:Bubble?

[NaugaHunter]

Must everything be a bubble now?

Don't worry - top analysts have predicted that the Bubble Bubble is about to burst any time now.

Re:Bubble?

[TheoMurpse]

The housing market was a bubble

Was? When did it stop being a bubble? Check out the blue graph here. Sure looks like we're still in a bubble to me.

I want this product...

[Anonymous Coward]

A portable flash powered recorder, it plays and records vorbis, flac and wav. Recording is from a stereo line-in jack on 1/8" stereo plug.

This is what I want, I personally couldn't give a shit about other formats (no royalties for manufacturer).

Yes, I'm in the minority with low budget filmakers and musos who would buy a cheap, simple device like this.

open it up

[oohshiny]

The design, simplicity, and direction Apple gave the first generations of iPods were probably a big part in their success. But I think at this point, they should seriously consider opening up the platform to third party developers and making it really easy to develop new apps for it. That way, the market can determine what features people like on their iPods, rather than Jobs.

Endless Growth?

[lostraven]

Much like the belief that the U.S. economy will continue to only grow, how much of this is Apple executives putting unrealistic faith into the idea that iPod sales will continue to grow? I'm not an economics major (so perhaps someone will elaborate here), but it seems intuitive that it's unrealistic to believe in growth forever, especially in an item that (as has been mentioned) is mostly commonplace and dare I say ... mundane. -ShawnD

"the" bubble?

[sgt scrub]

What "bubble"? A fart would generate a bigger bubble!

Lower sales after the holiday?

[Jahz]

But sales fell to 8.5 million in the following quarter, and down to 8.1 million in the most recent three-month period. Wall Street is reportedly starting to worry that the bubble will burst.'"

T
You mean to say that iPod sales were lower in the 7 months following the holiday season?? Ne freakin' way!!

Ms. Cleo could have predicated that...

Re:Lower sales after the holiday?

[Jahz]

After reading TFA, I have to say that it is a pretty worthless doomsday article.

My favorite line:

...while other consumers who had bought iPods more recently had not even taken theirs out of the package to set it up.

Who drops $300 on an iPod and then does not take it out of the box?? I think they interviewed grandparents who got iPods from their kids or something...

A close second was the sentence immediately preceeding that one:

some long-time iPod-users told us that they have stopped updating their iPods because it's too much work

Step 1: Plug in iPod, Step 2: Click "Yes" when iTunes asks if you want to update, Step 3: ...Oh, there is no step 3

Humor on a Sunday

[Overly Critical Guy]

Want to read something funny in retrospect? Read Microsoft's Press Pass interview released to combat the press coverage when iTunes for Windows came out: Q&A: Choosing a Digital Music Service for Windows Users.

It's one big advertisement given in the form of a staged interview with Microsoft's general manager of their Windows Digital Media Division. Revel in the humor as he gives choice quotes such as, "iTunes captured some early media interest with their store on the Mac, but I think the Windows platform will be a significant challenge for them." Or "With Windows Media 9 Series, you get faster starts, better quality music, and support for the most devices."

Tee-hee...

Re:Humor on a Sunday

[ericdano]

Dood, April is months away. But thanks for the laugh. Microsoft. They are such kidders.

Re:Humor on a Sunday

[Anonymous Coward]

Good that most people don't read this kind of rubbish anyway. I found these statements to only be a way for the company to "fight back" in their mind. :)

Wrong, Wall Street will sh*t a brick ...

[AHumbleOpinion]

I doubt Wall Street is worried about summer sales being lower than Christmas sales...

You are so wrong. Apple's stock price is all about iPod. For years their stock has been fairly flat as new computers are introduced, Macs that are the best machines they ever offered. However iPod news, or even rumors, can cause huge movements. The business press even often describes Apple as the maker of iPod and Macintosh computers, Mac ironically getting second billing. iPod brought Apple stock to the $30s and well beyond, and a lot of that is speculation about continued growth in the portable digital music/video player market. If there is any hint that Apple has lost it's technological or mindshare lead then Apple stock will dive. Keep in mind that stock price is not about the health of a company, it is speculation on the future growth of a company. Those are two very different things. Apple can be healthy, profitable, and selling more Mac and iPods than every before *and* their stock could dive. If iPod ever gets a viable competitor I expect Apple stock will go back below $30.

Re:Wrong, Wall Street will sh*t a brick ...

[Afrosheen]

It's no surprise the Mac gets second billing behind the iPod line. The iPod has done so much more for their profits and shareholders than their Macs ever did, and strangely enough, some people that buy iPods and love them end up buying Macs sooner or later. Plus, Macs have the bling factor due to the high style and high prices, so it becomes an upscale item for Mercedes owners to purchase.

  Ultimately, it gets second place on a marquee because more people have an iPod at home than a Mac.

Re:Wrong, Wall Street will sh*t a brick ...

[derEikopf]

What? Obviously Apple and Wall Street are not expecting iPods to sell during July as well as they do during Christmas.

Re:Wrong, Wall Street will sh*t a brick ...

[AHumbleOpinion]

What? Obviously Apple and Wall Street are not expecting iPods to sell during July as well as they do during Christmas.

Pay more attention to the article not the GP's paraphrasing and things will be clearer: "Tomi Ahonen, a technology brand expert and author, said: 'For the first time the iPod has had two consecutive falls after 17 quarters of growth."

Missed the biggy..feature creep

[UniverseIsADoughnut]

Of course there are some basic answers like "all those who are interested in one now own one".

But I think the biggy is apples fault and gets worse with every generation. Feature Creep. The iPod was designed right at first. It did one thing and did it very well, play music. They keep adding features that have nothing to do with music, like photos, video and such. It's diluting what the thing is. Non of those things make it play music better, but they do clog the interface up more and make it overall a more complicated device (may just be software, but there is still more code to go wrong).

Same thing with phones. People are growing increasingly agree with them since they can't get a true phone, it has 50 million non-phone things in it clogging it up.

Apple has made the iPod less attractive every generation, they add some good (bigger capacities, smaller body, and such) but it gets offset. But there are no real alternatives, since frankly the competition sucks. So people just wait. Apple right now will just be calling the iPod the 2.5" Macbook before too long

Meh ipod sucks try this

[Anonymous Coward]

Carnage Blender :q

The Guardian's article...

[DreadfulGrape]

... is a complete and utter waste of bandwidth. "Sales are declining at an unprecedented rate."

Bullsh1t. Look at all of iPod's quarterly sales:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPod#Sales

Take out the massive spike for fiscal '06 Q1 and you have a very healthy, ordinary looking sales curve. Are we to think that Apple is in full-blown panic mode just because they aren't moving 10 million units a month? I find that very hard to believe.

economics

[xombo]

The economy is going through a bubble, not just the iPod. The decline in sales is indicative of an economy in turmoil and it only stands to get worse.

This Christmas I'll be holding sign outside the mall entrances that say "How in debt are you?"

At this point I don't think there's any turning back. We might as well let the bankers brand our asses and round us up together in the back-40 somewhere.

Re:Not just DRM but client fatigue. Free is better

[jcr]

You need a special client to load it and it only loads AAC.

No, it will load AAC, MP3, AIFF, WAV and Apple Lossless files.

-jcr

D-pad good, scroll-wheel bad!

[argent]

"Innovative" touch pad.. try scrolling through ten thousand songs precisely. Not. Happening.

I got an iPod Shuffle and gave my iPod Mini to my daughter precisely because the touch wheen is such a horrid user interface, and the D-pad on the shuffle is so much more practical for 99% of the uses.

Apple needs to get together with Sony and do an iPod that has a jog-wheel and a D-pad but is otherwise an iPod... syncs with iTunes, plays AAC and protected AAC files, and so on.

Not just iPods - Apple products in general

[Anonymous Coward]

Yes, you are right. And it's not just iPods - it's Apple products in general. It is starting to look like Apple computers and OSX were a big bubble. Look at OSX users - many, many of them are using increasing amount of Linux applications nowadays. Why is that? It is because although OSX seemed like a cool desktop environment, it did not offer anything else. There is increasing number of ex-OSX users who are using Ubuntu now.

Re:Not just iPods - Apple products in general

[ericdano]

Facts? Statistics? Hear of them? Care to share with us? Otherwise, we should dismiss your faulty argument and reason.

Hell, I could make the same claim that a number of ex-Linux users run OS X. I just pulled the facts out of thin air.

Re:Not just iPods - Apple products in general

[BrainInAJar]

I switched from desktop linux to OSX backed with my solaris machine in the closet (after about 8 years of linux exclusivity) because I got tired of fiddling with linux stupidity... so my anecdotal evidence counters yours i guess

Re:Not just iPods - Apple products in general

[AvitarX]

The price of the new MacBooks is quite hight too.

We were going to buy one, but $1099 for the low end was too much. We ended up buying a compaq for $830 (with $130 in additional mail-in rebates). This left enough money saved to buy a 3 year express servce plan, or a 2 year accidental damgage/express service plan, or a lot of booze.

There was no blutooth, and the CPU may be slower (but still a core duo), and the grahics card may suffer some, buy since it is not running 3D effects constantly it works just fine.

I'm not saying the MacBook is a rip off, it is well made, and quite small, though the one we got is not particularly big; it is just not near as cost competitive as the iBooks used to be.

Re:Not just DRM but client fatigue. Free is better

[HAKdragon]

You need a special client to load it and it only loads AAC. My iPod seems to play MP3s just fine. While iTunes is the only supported client, there are a number of audio applications available for Windows, OSX, and Linux that have iPod support.

Is it using Dell batteries?

[BeeBeard]

I saw the words "losing its cool" and "burst" in the post, and immediately thought that Apple had switched to Dell batteries in the iPods.

I bought my iPod 4 years ago

[Wiarumas]

I was a senior about to head off to college and I thought "Hey.. I'm going to buy one of those fancy iPods so I can listen to music on the way to class." So I bought one. 4 years later I walk around with my 1st generation iPod still. I notice other people around campus having minis, nanos, shuffles, regular iPods.. but you know what? I never bought a new one. In my statistics class I remember the professor made everyone stand up who had one.. nearly 75% of the room had an iPod. Thats amazing. My question is.. why would I spend another 300 dollars on a new iPod whenever I already have one that works fine? I'm sure other people feel the same. I think that the information in this post is faulty. They correlated the wrong data. Instead they should have correlated the data against competing mp3 players instead of just total iPod sales.

Sales

[POKETNRJSH]

Everyone has a G5 iPod, of course sales are falling.

"lock-in" a myth ...

[AHumbleOpinion]

As other responses have pointed out there is no DRM lock-in for iPod. It plays MP3 and non-DRM'd AAC, things you rip or download from somewhere other than Apple. Apple's online music store does have DRM, but the lock-in notion is a myth. I believe that Steve Jobs mentioned at some point that the typical customer purchases $70 worth of music. That is not a lock-in. People have transitioned from one media to another (LP, tape, CD) with more of an investment than that. It's even less of an issue because your computer will keep playing these old DRM'd files after you have moved on to something else.

Re:"lock-in" a myth ...

[Bing Tsher E]

There is plenty of AAC lock-in, though.

If I had started out with an iPod and my collection of ripped CDs was all AAC files, I would be locked in to players that play AAC files.

Instead, I have an MP3 player (actually, I was encoding CD audio to MP2 on Linux using an encoder compiled from the 'reference source code' back in 1997, so I do know what MP3 is. Back then quite a few of the CDROM drives wouldn't even decode CDDA- firmware blocks.)

Re:"lock-in" a myth ...

[PygmySurfer]

If I had started out with an iPod and my collection of ripped CDs was all AAC files, I would be locked in to players that play AAC files.

Or, you could re-rip your files. Or you could've ripped them into MP3 in the first place.

Re:"lock-in" a myth ...

[AHumbleOpinion]

There is plenty of AAC lock-in, though. If I had started out with an iPod and my collection of ripped CDs was all AAC files, I would be locked in to players that play AAC files.

You don't have to use AAC, Apple's iTunes software allows you to rip as MP3.

Re:"lock-in" a myth ...

[Bing Tsher E]

There's no direct AAC to MP3 conversion utility?

Why? It's not 'DRM-encumbered' as everybody is always saying?

Where is aac2mp3 when people will be needing it? Let alone AAC2MP3.EXE for the people who will be the main victims of this stuff? Where are the specs to write it?

Re:"lock-in" a myth ...

[toddestan]

You seem pretty confused. You can only play iTMS DRM'd files on the iPod, thus once you have bought songs for your iPod, you have to keep buying more iPods if you want to keep playing those songs. That's the definition of lock in right there. If it wasn't lock in, Apple would let you play those songs on other brands of music players.

Re:"lock-in" a myth ...

[PygmySurfer]

Here's One. I assume the specs are out there too, as there are some open source AAC projects, like this one.

Not to mention DRM has nothing at all to do with decoding AAC. Don't confuse AAC with iTunes' Fairplay-protected AAC files.

Comment removed

[account_deleted]

Comment removed based on user account deletion

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[Jeremi]

The majority of iPod users use MP3s, which aren't affected by DRM.

Is there any (non-anecdotal) evidence to back up the above assertion?

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[Jahz]

The one major problem with your post is:

They want to turn it on, and not have to worry that the computer from which they're trying to transfer music is "iTunes anointed" or not. DRM-fatigue, finally, sets in (it's about time!).

Do you honestly think this affects more than 1% of the massive iPod user base?? And you are confused I think... You can only sync 1 computer to your iPod, but you can play iTunes music from up to 5 computers. Most people will never max out the 5 computer iTunes DRM limit. The average person uses one primary computer at home, maybe another at work, and a possibly a laptop. The DRM would allow you to play on all 3 of those at the same time (and 2 more).

Even if you want to go over that 5 computer limit, fret not. It is not a hard limit. You can "deauthorize" your machines and add new ones.

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[Anonymous Coward]

You'll be hearing from our lawyers. Hope you have $250,000 stashed away!

Sincerely,
The RIAA

Re:Not just DRM but client fatigue. Free is better

[Jeremi]

I think his pointing to the fact that some people have not bothered to set up their iPods is good evidence that there's too much work needed. How many $100 gadgets have you left in their box? Throwing away $100 says a lot about the effort required to make it
work for the user.

I don't quite follow -- if you never took your iPod out of its box, how do you even know how much effort it takes to set one up?

Frankly, the "people are buying iPods and throwing them away without opening the box" thing sounds like FUD to me. Very few people are both rich enough to throw away new items unopened, and stupid enough to buy things they don't even want.

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[wasted time]

I burn, rip and share it, and give away copies to anyone who asks ;-)

Link please.

Death of the iPod . . .

[ElephanTS]

Well, what does anyone expect about a product coming from the beleaguered Apple?

File this under FUD.

Simple, really...

[Eminence]

It's quite simple - something everyone has can't be cool anymore. Coolness stems (also) from uniqueness or rarity.

You Sir, Are a Fucking Idiot

[Anonymous Coward]

You don't think proffesional market analysts take that into consideration? RTFM before failing to make with the funny.

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[mackyrae]

I've never seen anything here sold on the basis of mp4 compliance. I thought iTunes/iPod were the only things using mp4a.

Utter bullshit

[daveschroeder]

'The iPod is far and away the most popular tech gadget with our panellists - however, for the first time we are hearing negative feedback about the iPod from some panellists,' said the organisation's spokeswoman, Carla Avruch. 'Panellists cite that the batteries are not replaceable, so when they die the entire player must be replaced,' she said. 'We have heard from some conspiracy theorists that the batteries are made to die soon after the warranty ends.

I can't believe this is rearing its head again.

1. The batteries are replaceable, both by Apple and numerous third parties for as little as $25. Apple's replacement is $60. Yes, Apple's replacement is not self-service, but the cost of an OEM battery, even if it was "user-replaceable" (which it actually still is) could still be in that ballpark, as evidenced by OEM battery prices compared to high-quality third party replacements on nearly EVERY DEVICE UNDER THE SUN that uses lithium ion batteries.

2. The batteries are made by leading battery OEMs. How on earth could they be "designed" to last only until the warranty runs out? I know they acknowledge it as a conspiracy theory, but *come on*.

Not to mention how many other devices in the iPod's class also have had batteries sealed in the enclosure. The difference with the iPod, as compared to some of the other products, is that you actually CAN get the battery replaced, direct from Apple, not to mention from any of many, many third party reputable vendors.

Some of the third parties even do the replacement for you overnight, some with higher capacity batteries than the OEM equipment, and for cheaper than Apple's own official replacement.

This battery crap has been so thoroughly debunked it's unbelievable. I have answered nearly every question I can think of about iPod batteries here:

http://ipodbatteryfaq.com/index-noads.html

Please note that this is my site, and the main index page DOES feature Google ads. The above link DOES NOT contain ads. I have nothing to do with Apple and have never worked for Apple, nor do I sell iPods, anything iPod related, or anything having to do with batteries. I do not receive money or products from anyone related to Apple or any iPod accessory maker. The only ads on the site (which are NOT on the above URL) are via Google. If you find anything inaccurate in that FAQ, which has stood for almost 4 years, please let me know as soon as possible. In fact, I challenge someone to find something inaccurate about the FAQ.

(If you think you're going to say some witty remark about bad PR forcing Apple's hand, or iPod's Dirty Secret, or some other tripe, please read the FAQ first.)

In sum:

The batteries in ALL models of iPod are replaceable, both by Apple, or via several third parties for as little as $25. Third parties offer do-it-yourself kits, and some will also do the replacement for you. The warranty on the iPod is one year, it DOES cover the batteries, and can be extended to two years for $60. Many first generation iPods are still in use with their original batteries. ALL lithium ion batteries have a finite lifetime. The case isn't sealed for "planned obsolescence" or failure; it's because any mechanisms to allow acceptable user-access to batteries would significantly increase the size of the case. Yes, significantly. Even if it's a millimeter, that can be a killer for a device whose thickness is *measured* in millimeters. No, it can't just use screws and doors: the decision was made such that the device would have the sleek design and appearance that makes it so attractive in the first place. And even if you believe that it still was a conspiracy to get people to buy new iPods when the batteries wore out, even if that were the case, the batteries are replaceable via numerous channels, including Apple itself, for anywhere from $25 to $60. They don't last any shorter or longer than any other high-quality lithium ion batteries out there.

I can't *believe* t

Re:Utter bullshit

[wasted time]

This battery crap has been so thoroughly debunked it's unbelievable. I have answered nearly every question I can think of about iPod batteries here:

Of course I didn't read your faq because I chose a music player which allows me to replace my own AA battery anytime I wish. But seriously, do you really expect the general public to track down your obscure faq on the web to find out what they should do about a failing battery? A failing battery in a device that most likely cost them one to several hundred dollars? I find that unbelivable.

Re:Utter bullshit

[sokoban]

Lithium ion and Lithium Polymer batteries have a finite number of charge/discharge cycles. Any laptop computer owner can tell you this, and most of the time, those batteries alone cost well over a hundred dollars.

Re:Utter bullshit

[DWIM]

The batteries in ALL models of iPod are replaceable, both by Apple, or via several third parties for as little as $25. Third parties offer do-it-yourself kits, and some will also do the replacement for you. The warranty on the iPod is one year, it DOES cover the batteries, and can be extended to two years for $60.

When people say the batteries are not replaceable, they mean the product is not designed for the end-user to easily change the batteries, particularly without violating the product warranty. Of course the batteries are literally replaceable, but the entire iPod experience is about keeping things bone-dead simple for end users. Having to send or take the iPod to Apple or some authorized 3rd party to have the batteries replaced is a huge annoyance. Compared to a device whose batteries are designed to be conveniently end-user replaceable, the iPod's batteries are "not replaceable."

I think, however, people should not feel too threatened that the iPod may not be completely perfect in all aspects.

Re:Utter bullshit

[daveschroeder]

Search on Google for:

ipod battery
replace ipod battery
ipod battery problem

...or anything similar, and it's the number one hit (and dozens of other sites that sell and service iPods and batteries follow).

To say nothing of the fact that Apple's own iPod battery replacement programs are thoroughly documented on its own pages, and can be found out about instantly by calling Apple, visiting any Apple store or service provider, or asking anyone who knows remotely anything about iPods.

So, nice try, but it's not an "obscure faq", and it's utterly ridiculously simple to find out how to replace a battery in an iPod. Your cell phone and digital camera likely don't use AA batteries, and yet, miraculously, people can figure out where to buy those. It's really no different with an iPod. And if you're honestly telling me that people should correctly assume that they must throw their iPod away simply because it doesn't have an obvious battery door, without doing ANYTHING to determine whether the battery is replaceable, well, I find that "unbelivable" (sic).

Re:Utter bullshit

[wasted time]

Take no offense to the obscure website remark. Good job on being a top search result with something actually useful to public.

But I stand by my comment that people shouldn't have to track down how to have the batteries replaced. I own laptops, cameras, and cell phones which all use batteries other than AA, but I can replace every one of them myself without sending the item away or taking it to a geek counter for service. That is very different from an ipod. As a matter of fact that was the deciding factor for me when it came time to purchase a music player. I wanted to be able to carry multiple batteries, for periods when I would be away from wall sockets for more than a couple days.

The general public is not as smart as you may think when it comes to such matters. For years and years they bought overpriced, sealed battery flashlights with no user replacable batteries. When the lights stopped working they tossed them and bought another. Apparently there are quite a few who think the same about a fashionable music player, otherwise there wouldn't be a need for a ipodbatteryfaq now would there?

Re:Utter bullshit

[Gnavpot]

I can't believe this is rearing its head again.

1. The batteries are replaceable

You have to remember that the rumour of the irreplaceable batteries started out as pure thruth. It may not be true anymore, but it should never be forgotten that it was true once.

People payed several hundred dollars for these devices and when the batteries failed, Apple first refused to do anything, even for money. When a battery failed after the warranty, the reply from Apple was "Throw your iPod away and buy a new one. We do not sell or replace batteries."

It took a lot of customer pressure to convince Apple to change that policy.

And now you are suggesting that people must be fools if they think that the battery of their iPod is irreplaceable?

Re:Utter bullshit

[daveschroeder]

I agree with you that the batteries aren't "user replaceable".

But look inside those laptops, cameras, and cell phones that use non-standard batteries: the batteries aren't just resting directly against the circuit board or other delicate components; they're in their own little space, partitioned off from other parts of the innards that could be easily damaged, with their own little plastic or metal walls separating them, and clips, doors, springs, or screws controlling access. All of those things must be engineered around, and add size and weight. While none of us our privy to the backroom discussions about the iPod, it was an engineering decision to make it this way. I'm sure Apple doesn't cry itself to sleep at night when someone buys a new iPod, but I'm also equally sure this wasn't a plan to make the iPod completely disposable: indeed, if that were peoples' perception, it would be disastrous for sales and reputation of the product.

Had Apple never launched any type of battery replacement service, I'd also agree that this would be a problem, no matter how many other ways there were to replace the battery.

Third parties and do-it-yourself instructions aside, the ONLY difference with Apple's replacement is that the iPod must be sent away. I personally do not see that as a major hardship to do once every two or three years, and on balance, it may even be a positive, because that might have been what made many people, directly or indirectly, decide to buy an iPod in the first place (a combination of weight, size, and sleek appearance unobstructed with access panels, screws, clips, or the like). While some people don't consider this a benefit, you actually will get a new iPod or an iPod in a completely new enclosure (i.e., looks literally brand new from the outside) with factory-refurbished and -tested internal components, with its own 90-day service warranty (in case some component really is DOA). Judging from the examples of many iPods I've seen, this is actually a huge side benefit for many people who may choose to get their battery replaced.

The process itself is pretty straightforward: you visit Apple's web site, any Apple store, or any Apple service provider. You get a prepaid box sent to you that you drop your iPod in. You wait, and the new iPod shows up. As for the process of "figuring out" how to do it, whether the battery was user-replaceable or not, I imagine most people would go to a search engine, or call the company that made the product, or similar, and pose their query. My FAQ aside, at that point, it's quite obvious how one can go about replacing the battery: they can choose to do it through Apple, a third party, or do it themselves. Not much different than any other product, except that the process of replacing the battery takes 10 or 15 minutes instead of 10 or 15 seconds.

As for sealed battery flashlights, well, some of them had their own benefits: like they could go completely underwater and were relatively cheap for that feature. If you're talking about the ones that were nothing but a ripoff and were designed with being disposable with that end in mind, sure: sometimes people aren't smart. But the goal with the iPod wasn't to pull one over on consumers and hope they didn't figure out that they can't replace the battery while laughing all the way to the bank. The battery is replaceable, and people can choose to do it via various mechanisms, or not. And user-replaceability aside, they'd find out exactly HOW to go about replacing the battery the same way they'd find out how to do so with their cell phone or laptop: consulting the web, the manufacturer, the store at which it was bought, etc.

As for why iPod Battery FAQ exists, well, that was my own personal response to iPod's Dirty Secret, which claimed, through spraypainting half of Manhattan, that "iPod's unreplaceable battery only lasts 18 months". Which, of course, is utterly false. And it wasn't the "bad PR" from that which made Apple introduce its battery replacement programs; they were actually rolled out

Re:Utter bullshit

[daveschroeder]

You have to remember that the rumour of the irreplaceable batteries started out as pure thruth. It may not be true anymore, but it should never be forgotten that it was true once.

Even at that time, there were many options from third parties to replace the batteries, including some who would do the replacement for you, and many with batteries better than Apple's own (especially on the first generation iPods).

And while it was true that Apple didn't have its own mechanism for replacement, the battery was still covered under warranty, and all but the very earliest iPods wouldn't have even touched a timeframe, statistically, where they'd start needing their batteries replaced. But yes, customers did start noticing they needed new batteries, and Apple responded.

People payed several hundred dollars for these devices and when the batteries failed, Apple first refused to do anything, even for money. When a battery failed after the warranty, the reply from Apple was "Throw your iPod away and buy a new one. We do not sell or replace batteries."

Ahh, talking about iPod's Dirty Secret, huh? I bet they were glad to get someone from Apple on tape saying that for their little childish video. Yeah. That was true. Then. Three years ago. Not only has it not been true since (and again, ignoring all the numerous third party ways to replace the battery), but Apple's price to do the replacement actually went down by about half.

I'm pretty involved in keeping up on Apple news, products, support issues, and so on, since that's, well, kind of my job. I don't remember ANY outcry or publicity about the battery issue until iPod's Dirty Secret.

Except for one little problem.

Apple had already launched its battery replacement service. A fact that the Neistat brothers refused to acknowledge.

It took a lot of customer pressure to convince Apple to change that policy.

Oh? Where is your evidence of this?

I think Apple was actually caught off-guard by people even needing batteries that soon. Frankly, they may have partly expected/hoped that the batteries would last the lifetime of the product for most people, as it was designed to do. When it became apparent that the lifetime of the battery and the lifetime of the product were divergent, Apple introduced its replacement program. Did some customers get screwed in the meantime? I'm sure they did. But it was a vanishingly small number compared to people who were either never affected, or needed batteries replaced AFTER Apple launched its program (and who

And now you are suggesting that people must be fools if they think that the battery of their iPod is irreplaceable?

Yes. I am. Because the batteries have been replaceable directly through Apple for three years, and have been replaceable by literally dozens of other third parties, including several prominent, established, reputable companies in the Apple product business, many of whom offer mail-in and do-it-yourself service, and some of which will even do the replacement overnight.

So anyone who still thinks - or is just beginning to think, now, according to this survey the Guardian mentions - that the iPod battery isn't replaceable is indeed a fool, and quite a large one at that. (And no, they weren't talking about just user-replaceable: the context gives every indication that people think it can't be replaced at all, which is quite astounding. And not only that, they apparently got a response strong enough to be mentioned from people who not only think that it can't be replaced, but think it was intentionally designed to fail after the warranty expires, which is ridiculous given that they're just normal LiIon cells from the likes of Sanyo, Sony, and LG.)

Re:Utter bullshit

[SQL Error]

Ah, thanks. My iPod has been playing up - when I accidentally let it discharge fully it really doesn't want to come back to life again. But doing the reset trick a couple of times fixed it. Must have done it by accident last time while I was mashing the buttons.

Re:Utter bullshit

[toddestan]

The fact that there is a whole *industry* dedicated to servicing iPod batteries, and the fact that entire sites exist simply to talk about iPod batteries does say a lot though. How many other devices have the users going to Google to find a FAQ when it stops holding a charge?

Re:Utter bullshit

[Achromatic1978]

But the goal with the iPod wasn't to pull one over on consumers and hope they didn't figure out that they can't replace the battery while laughing all the way to the bank.

I'd query this - but am quite willing to be corrected - but wasnt this the intention originally? Apple suggested you buy a new one? And it wasn't until the first (hint of?) suit that they offered the replacement program?

Re:Utter bullshit

[Anonymous Coward]

Very nice faq, I was particularly interested in this part: A fully charged lithium ion battery ages at a faster rate than a lithium ion battery at the optimum storage capacity of approximately 40%. However, keeping an iPod battery near this optimum storage capacity can prove difficult to manage. A lithium ion battery also ages from use, as well as from storage, so the aging effects of constant use of the battery in order to keep the charge closer to 40%, versus constant use while attached to external power, come close to being even. This sounds like what has happened to my iBook over the summer. I probably haven't unplugged it more than 3 or 4 times since early June, and I've noticed my battery life as fallen to under 2 hours now that I'm back in school, whereas it was pretty close to 3 hours at the end of the spring quarter. I'm curious if anyone offers a utility to keep a battery charged at 40% while plugged in, until I tell the machine to fully charge. If not, how hard would this be to set-up? (whether by Apple or a 3rd party).

Car audio and other integrations sold and keep me

[moxley]

One thing about the ipod, and the reason why I first purchased one and love mine so much is that many aftermarket car stereos (like Alpine for example, which is what I installed in my car) have built in full support for Ipod - not just a stereo mini jack, I'm talking about the same connection in the bottom of the ipod that you use to connect it to a computer - so I can control my ipod from my car stereo, see the artist, album and track name. I can put it into shuffle mode for the entire ipod on a specific album or playlist - and it sounds really good, very rich and full because they have BBE which actually does make it sound better (kind of like BBE sonic maximizer)....I know that this is an option on some of the nicer vehicles too when purchased new, but it's a completely different experience then trying to mess around with one of those little FM transmitters.

The only problem was the very first gen of the Alpine units is that the 2004 ones scrolled through your artists too slow. They fixed that (as well as inegrating the ipod support directly into the head unit) so I upgraded and have been extremely happy ever since.

I get tons of new music online every day, whether it's from binaries or torrents of live performances, this is cool because I can have it in my car (or any other stereo or computer I can plug the thing into) the same day I get it usually without having to do any conversion (lossless audio files need to be converted, but that is a quick one click change to mp3).

Since 95% of non public, non satellite (and even some satellite) radio is a total joke; (basically just a long ass commercial with the same 10 lame songs droning over and over again in between the inane patter of someone who sounds like they should be selling used cars) it's so nice to throw my 60 gig into my dash compartment, connect it and hit "mix all" on the head unit and hear a rotating random (seemingly anyways) selection of 15,000 tracks that range from personal classics I have loved for years to something i just found yesterday.

For me that is one of the things that truly makes the ipod great is integration with other items (car stereo, Xbox360 etc). The only thing I would like even more is something as small or smaller with the same or larger capacity that was completely open source and embraced by the consumer electronics industry, but until then the ipod has been the best option for me.

The only problem was the very first gen of the Alpine units is that the 2004 ones scrolled through your artists too slow. They fixed that (as well as inegrating the ipod support directly into the head unit) so I upgraded and have been extremely happy ever since.

I get tons of new music online every day, whether it's from binaries or torrents of live performances, this is cool because I can have it in my car (or any other stereo or computer I can plug the thing into) the same day I get it usually without having to do much work.

Since 95% of non public, non satellite (and even some satellite) radio is a total joke; (basically just a long ass commercial with the same 10 lame songs droning over and over again in between the inane patter of someone who sounds like they should be selling used cars) it's so nice to though my 60 gig into my dash compartment and hit "mix all" on the head unit and hear a rotating random (seemingly anyways) selection of 15,000 tracks that range from personal classics I have loved for years to something i just found yesterday.

For me that is one of the things that truly makes the ipod great is integration with other items (car stereo, Xbox360 etc). The only thing I would like even more is something as small or smaller that was completely open source and embraced by the consumer electronics industry, but until then the ipod has been the best option for me.

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[ericdano]

Where do you get this number? Out of your Ass? Out of my collection, I have a majority of AACs now. I'm encoded all my CDs into 160 AACs rather than MP3. They sound better, and are smaller.

Apple Product Cycle

[Anonymous Coward]

I can't believe noone has posted The Apple Product Cycle in such a fitting article.

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[Registered Coward v2]

This is the SONY walkman all over again, then the SONY CD walkman... it's done. It's hard to imagine quantum leaps of coolness and convenience beyond an iPod or video iPod. The curve had to level, there just isn't any there there. Apple should be happy with what they've done, but I don't think this is a growth niche any longer.

I'd say an iPod with a PSP sized screen would be a hit, especially if it could play various standard video formats. I'd add a small SD slot as well to allow people to buy or rent movies on a card. With an 8 hour plus battery life I think it would be a hit with travelers. Right now I carry a PSP and my iPod, I'd love one device the size of an iPod with a PSP sized screen. Put the scroll wheel on the back (so you don't need an expensive touch screen) or via small buttons on the side and you'd have most of the case space devoted to the screen. My bet is Sony does it before Apple, though. There new mini portable is close, except that it has a non-replaceable battery, short life and is about $600 too expensive.

Growth is in Pimp My IPOD: Ipod Addon Marktet Grow

[Proudrooster]

I think the current boom is in the iPod Addon market. I can't go into a store these days without finding something that I can plug my iPod into e.g. (Radio Transmitter, Boom Box, Alarm Clock, Tennis Shoe, Pants, Remote control armband, bookbag).

The growth area is in the Pimp-My-IPOD arena and also in software to replace iTunes like Anapod or MediaMonkey.

I am not Batman

[DeepFried]

I believe that when Apple finally releases a 'iPhone' that there will be a revival of sales. A phone is a 'must-carry' device, while and iPod is very much optional. I currently have a 60gb video iPod that I never use. When I am running around, doing errands, I dont want to have a Batman-esque belt of devices (phone,iPod,camera). My current solution is a multimedia phone (the Nokia N73). It is about one generation away from being the ulitmate convergence device for me. I think if Apple rolled out their vision of a convergence device, it would take the market by storm, much as the original iPod did.

No Derp

[StithJim]

It obvious that damn near everyone and their dog has an iPod. Thus these people will not go out and buy it again...and again and again. At one point everyone's going to have an iPod and sales are going to crash.

iPods overexposure

[doctor_no]

There are a lot of people, including myself, that will refuse to buy an iPod merely because it is overexposed and everybody has it.

While there are few people that will argue that iPod isn't an excellent product, the ubiquitous nature of the iPod by everybody makes it uncool. Over exposure and popularity can also be negative, much like the New Beetle, Mini Cooper, and the Macarena. I think there is now a large group of people that want "anything but iPod", and wouldn't be caught dead with one.

Re:iPods overexposure

[Deadguy2322]

Only hipster dipshits like yourself.

Other's sales

[Kuvter]

Are the sales of other mp3 players going up though? The iPod could have just saturated the market enough that people aren't buying as many of them?

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[ElleyKitten]

Since iTunes, by default, rips your music to AAC (non-DRM'ed, unlike Windows Media Player rips to WMA), I think your statement is highly unlikely. Unless you're into that whole Ballmer "The most common type of music on iPod is stolen" mantra.

MP3s are not, by definition, stolen. Many people buy CDs and then rip them to MP3, or buy from EMusic or whatever. So I wouldn't be surprised if the majority of iPod music was MP3, and not copyrigh-infringed.

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[msormune]

But when you're buing the unprotected CDs, you are eligible to transfer the contents to your own hard disk or what ever, IF THERE IS NO COPY PROTECTION. And regular CDs do not have such protection these days. And I am guessing you are not buying any protected CDs. So you are not acting like a criminal, until you actually distribute the ripped MP3s.
So you can burn and rip all you want, RIAA will not care. Just don't share.

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[ericdano]

Yup. Exactly. I did a blind test as well, and found AACs to sound great at 160, hence that is where my iTunes encoding setting is set. PLUS, they are smaller than MP3s. I generally encoded things at 192 or higher using MP3, and used the LAME encoder as well, but......not anymore.

why i never bought one

[FudRucker]

1. over-priced due to various reasons, maybe too popular, or just corporate greed & marketing... 2. fear of vendor lock-in & DRM mostly though... 3. AM/FM radio is still FREE!, (yeah, i am a cheapskate)...

Re:Not just DRM but client fatigue. Free is better

[Anonymous Coward]

No, it will load AAC, MP3, AIFF, WAV and Apple Lossless files.

Ah ha! Obviously the lack of Ogg support is what is causing sales to slow down.

Author has a clear agenda

[delete]

'Phones are outselling dedicated MP3 players by six to one. Apple had the market for MP3, but they lost it.'

Before anyone takes this article too seriously, it's worth examining the credentials of the "expert" quoted in the article. Tomi Ahonen is a self-declared "technology strategy consultant", whose primary field of consultancy is wireless and mobile telecoms. Last year he predicted that mobile games consoles would also be crushed by mobile phone usage. The weak PSP represented an easy target, I'm not so sure that the iPod is as passé as he would have us believe.

If anyone has any doubt regarding Tomi's views, look no further than his blog. Clearly he has a vested interest in seeing the iPod fail, so take his opinions with large doses of salt.

Re:Author has a clear agenda

[Anonymous Coward]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ad_hominem

Re:Author has a clear agenda

[Anonymous Coward]

Before anyone takes this article too seriously, it's worth examining the credentials of the "expert" quoted in the article. Tomi Ahonen is...

Bzzt. You have committed the "Ad Hominem" logical fallacy. Thank you for playing the invalid argument game.

Re:Author has a clear agenda

[Anonymous Coward]

So by posting that link, are you suggesting that the expert quoted in the article does not consistently exhibit a strong bias in favor of products from mobile phone manufacturers, thereby calling his position as an "indepentent consultant" into question? Sometimes it's important to consider the background and source of an article, rather than merely forming an opinion based on the article summary.

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[FyRE666]

Should have mentioned, I buy most of my albums from iTunes, not on CD. It's convenient, and so long as I can burn and rip the music back, I'll continue using it. The day Apple add an update to prevent that, that'll be the last day I ever buy anything from there.

Re:No surprise... itunes suxxxxx

[EmbeddedJanitor]

My wife has an ipod and I have the task of updating it with podcasts etc. using itunes. What sucky software! It "thinks" for long periods (sometimes almost 1 minute) while it is not doing anything useful. It frequently says "OK to disconnect" when it has notactually completed the updates.

This is not reallyt good for software that should be stable by now.

Re:Not just DRM but client fatigue. Free is better

[supasam]

Yeah man, it was so hard for me to plug my ipod into the usb slot on my mac and then sit there while itunes automatically opened and started configuring my ipod for me. I don't know what I would have done if I had to, I don't know, go on the internet, find and advocate an itunes replacement, download it, install it, and hope it runs on my ipod and picks up the 160 gigs of apple lossless music I have. I probably would have not even bought the thing, right?

The iPod hasn't "Lost" It's cool

[hcob$]

It has simply entered into a different phase of it's life. As a previous poster speculated on, the "market" has reached a saturation point. Soon(the next 2-3 years) MP3 Players, like many other electronic goods will enter into their "Commodity" phase.

Also, with what was a roaring(in spite of gas prices) economy, we've now passed the peak of the economic rise...(economy 101) Maninly this peak is due to the federal board and it's raising of intrest rates, but the economy as a hole has cooled. The first thing to go during ANY economic downturn is what some people call "Frivolous Spending".

If you have kids...

[IANAAC]

People get iPods because they're fun and easy to use, not to appear "unique and cool."

If you have kids, you know that this is absolutely NOT true. " But Dad, EVERYBODY has one except me. I'm a total freak because of it!"

Re:Could it be because... Tuesday

[alfredo]

Jobs could be introducing a new generation iPod. We won't know for sure until he says "One more thing."

He knows you are only good as what you have in the pipeline.

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[Seiruu]

You can listen to music while you browse the web, jog, write code.
You can't really watch a video using a portable device while doing those things. (other than porn...)

Unless you're impotent, watching porn while jogging doesn't sound like a comfortable thing to do. Especially when you're wearing those jogging pants.

"Dude is that your....??"
"That's my ehm IPOD sticking out! That's right"

Sales declining

[kbox]

The sales are declining because everyone who wants one has got one.

Call 'em what they are: "mp3 Players"

[PopeRatzo]

Everyone I know calls them "mp3 Players" Not "iPods" or "DMP" or "DRM Delivery Device".

Fad is what it was, no doubt. Not that people don't want to be able to carry digital versions of their music libraries around with them. That is here forever. It's the "it's gotta be an iPod" that's just a passing fancy.

I had an early iPod and then a Mini. But when the Nano came around, I knew that there were other people that were doing or getting ready to do the flash music thing and I waited. I just bought an 8gig, video capable player that sounds better and is cheaper than the Nano, and Apple did NOT make it. I won't do unpaid advertising for Sandisk any more, but Apple had a good idea, executed well, and the world has caught up with them. But they don't deserve the only franchise on portable music players because they hit a home run once. Let them come up with more good ideas, and then let the rest of the world compete. It's the way our beloved "free market" is supposed to work.

And let DRM die an ugly death because I will not buy a product that the manufacturer still owns. If I buy a book, I can read it then give it to a friend, who can pass it on until the pages fall out. The music and movie industries' business models are dead and no amount of litigation or legislation will revive it. If that means there won't be any huge blockbusters or Brittney Spears albums, well, I'll just have to live with that. But I have no fear that artists and innovators will not be able, or want, to continue to ply their trade. It's the leeches that will have to find another source of blood.

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[The Spie]

Here in China MP4 compliance is a big selling point for cell phones, PDAs, and other random gadgets. I gotta believe it's the same in the US.

No, it isn't. MP4 compatibility isn't mentioned at all as a selling point. "Play videos" is about the most that you get in ads. And most phones that do video here utilize .3gp as the standard file format. I had to hack the firmware on my phone so that it records video in MP4.

Tiny 20GB Archos:better value for 50% less cost

[Anonymous Coward]

I owned several mp3 players including Archos Gmini, Samsusng YH-920 and Ipod.

Tiny 20GB Archos Gmini is certainly the best when it comes to the price and features. It also works with GNU/Linux out of the box, without any special drivers and/or software.

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[cyber-vandal]

The majority of iPod users use MP3s

Don't give the GP grief when you don't back that one up with a link.

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[exp(pi*sqrt(163))]

I agree. People don't buy music to listen to it. They buy music so that they can do something else and not get so bored doing it.

What's so hard to figure out.

[Anonymous Coward]

Of course sales are slipping, everyone that wants one already has one!

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[giorgosts]

The iPod reached its peak cause there aren't more people prepared to buy an overpriced device because of its coolness. Especially when 2GB MP3 players costing less than $100 are on the market. DRM is irrelavant because everyone loads the iPod with MP3s downloaded from the Internet. The iTunes serves to preserves relations with the content industry, so they keep making their money of piracy, by selling overpriced hardware. But that business model is going to have to change, as everything else in life. So Apple has to find another cool device to sell and please the Wall Street.

that's because they are addicted to entertainment

[Anonymous Coward]

bread and circuses junkies. The bulk of them can rattle off a list of some popular tatooed and pierced or cowboy hatted "entertainers", or all their sports gods stats, yet have no clue and can't even name their senators and house rep, let alone know how they stand on issues. I mean, shee-it, most people in the USA stil think we invaded iraq as payback for saddam attacking NYC. I mean, ignornat stupid mouth breathers.. They have no idea what is going on in real life other than they need to be entertained.

The public gets exactly what they deserve, to get shafted, because they do-not-care. Let them keep running virus infested computers and getting boned by expensive DRMed music and movies. Serves them right. No effort at self education-you get your reward. Keep voting in the same exact idiots (don't waste your vote!!)election after election based on last minute 30 second soundbites on TV and how the candidate looks. Double plus morons. I'm glad iPod and MS and the **AA pirates take their money from them, they deserve to get took from their insane addiction to expensive mediocrity and "entertainment". That goes for the video game junkies and sports neurons as well, don't want anyone to feel left out. Spend months getting your FPS scores up, hoir after hour after hour after hour, then spend a dozen minutes a year tops on political activism then WONDER why shit is the way it is. Show me some entertainment addict, and 99 times out of 100 they have no idea what is going on in politics, but still want to bitch about it, usually about a year after it is too late to do much. And that's all they will do, hey the "big game" is on! Whoa, check out my new 50 inch HDTV and my TiVo!

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[swissfondue]

"There doesn't seem so much of a crack in any edifice as much as there's ultimately a saturation of the marketplace. At some point, pretty much everyone who wants an iPod gets one, and by now that's pretty much done (anyone hear any recent "I want an iPod" whines from anyone?)."
in fact yes, here: http://www.troyneedsanipod.com/

Ecosystem is what is important to me.

[guidryp]

I don't have one, I have an ancient 32K RCA K@zoo with 64mb SD card (the biggest it can handle) that I have not used in a while.

When I next upgrade it will be an Ipod, not because it is fashionable or faddish or popular, but because there is now a supporting ecosystem. Cars come with IPOD docks, you can get a cheap, nifty running package from Nike that tracks speed/distance while you are listening too music while your run.

In short I think it is the perfect choice for taking my music with me everywhere, moving seamlessly from jogging, to work, to driving cross country. I am just waiting for an 8Gig Nano to make the driving across country more feasable.

Re:Ecosystem is what is important to me.

[Achromatic1978]

Cars come with IPOD docks

Don't get too caught up in these. There's no metadata transfer, no track title display on your car system, the vast majority are just glorified AUX IN sockets which allow you to use previous / next track, only. Want to change dir or playlist? No chance. You /might/ get lucky with the "high end" ones and can have up to five hardcoded playlists you can use your car audio controls to adjust, but for everything else you're still using the unit itself.

And you'll pay several hundred dollars for the "privilege".

Re:Ecosystem is what is important to me.

[peginald]

I agree that the supporting ecosystem/accessories is important. It almost caused me to buy an iPod.

But in the end, I decided on a Sandisk Sansa e270 flash based player, as it was 6GB (8GB available now), and I decided that I could live with a generic Belkin transmitter for the car.

Reasons: no iTunes reqd - you can just copy the files over. Good price. And good reviews. User replacable battery. And not an Apple product.

No regrets so far, but an accessory list as long as the iPod's would be helpful.

And I don't care if its Apple's or Microsoft's DRM - I'm not interested in buy anything encoded in either format.

Re:Ecosystem is what is important to me.

[guidryp]

That Sandisk looks nice. Nice that there is a battery replacement kit, but there are many kits for Ipods as well. The real advantage would be a player that took standard Nimh batteries. But then you would be getting a bigger form factor.

I am not interested in DRM'd media either. Suggesting that by using apple you are buying into DRM is like suggesting that your Sandisk forces you to use "PlayForSure". I will play plain old MP3s on my Ipod when I get one.

As far as the big hit of forcing Itunes to transfer songs. Well I think I will manage to live with that, since I will probably load it full and leave it that way. I imagine that if I spent time looking I could find alternatives to using Itunes to transfer songs anyway.

So ecosystem still wins out for me.

Re:Ecosystem is what is important to me.

[peginald]

iPods do have battery replacement kits, but they invalidate your warranty, and can be quite tricky. However, I think the user replaceable battery may account for some of the additional thickness of the Sandisk over the iPod. Sandisk players do, reportedly, have significantly better battery life.

I didn't (and don't) suggest that an iPod forces you into DRM any more than a Sandisk.

And yes, there are other ways to copy over to the iPod (Winamp plug ins etc), but nothing as easy as just copying the files over.

When all said and done, isn't it nice to have a real choice, whereas in the past the iPod seemed to be the only viable option.

Re:Ecosystem is what is important to me.

[danpsmith]

Ipod docks for cars are mainly an FM transmitter with some type of "iPod" port attached. Most of the accessories for the Ipod are mostly ripoffs targeted at people who have Ipods because they are popular. It's very simple to integrate any digital player in your car, plug it in with a casette adaptor, the dock units they sell still aren't better quality than that anyway.

Re:Ecosystem is what is important to me.

[guidryp]

The Docks I am talking about are Car manufacturers offering integrated systems like for all BMW's that control the Ipod through the head unit. Unit goes in glove compartment, gets power, control and audio connection through dock. It would be silly to have this control integration and use FM for the signal, when they can grab output at the same time.

Besides who has cassette anymore, do you have an 8-track adaptor as well? I have a CD player in my car, most new cars are CD only.

Re:Ecosystem is what is important to me.

[guidryp]

I don't care about track display. I play on random and hit next if I don't feel like that song. That is all the control I need. Since these are my tunes, I usually recognize the artist/song.

The BMW system lists for $150, I don't know how difficult installation is.

But a nice solution that puts the player in the glove box out of site and powers the unit and lets me change tracks from the head unit sounds perfect for me.

Re:Ecosystem is what is important to me.

[NekSnappa]

I installed a very mid range Kenwood unit in my truck that has an actual iPod dock connector on it. My iPod sits in my glove box and draws it's power from the head unit, and the head unit displays track metadata. I can change by song, playlist, album, or artist. I can switch between in order or random play, all through the head unit.

The whole system including the iPod (used 3rd gen 20Gb) was less than $350. I think you over stated your case a wee bit.

Re:Ecosystem is what is important to me.

[danpsmith]

Nah I got a tape deck/FM/CD changer combo in my car and I was glad to see the tape deck, because it's much easier than either running an aux using whatever method the stereo makers use, or putting in a new head unit and then auxing off of that. Tis not really that bad of a thing. The latest thing in head units is to put ports directly on the units, so conceivably any MP3 player that could be charged via USB will get all the features you just mentioned.

Re:Ecosystem is what is important to me.

[guidryp]

I have an IP-Bus Pioneer in my current car. Searching for a minute I found this on Amazon:

http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B000FI71SG/ref=pd _cp_e_title/104-6683704-2050345?ie=UTF8

$40 gets me integrated doc/control/audio connection/battery charging. Seems pretty sweet to me. Better than cassete adaptors/fm transmitter or even a wire hanging off the front or other clunky solutions.

You can choose not to go this route, but I like the ecosystem and the integrated options it presents.

Re:Not just DRM but client fatigue. Free is better

[Anonymous Coward]

Not withstanding our esteemed Kings views, we, the free citizens of Bashan, wholeheartedly support the iPod.

Down with Ogg!

Re:Not just DRM but client fatigue. Free is better

[Anonymous Coward]

Like someone else pointed out, iTunes and iPod are not easy. Easy is being able to plug the device in and use any client to talk to it through a standard mass storage protocol, without having to transcode your files. iPod does not do this. You need a special client to load it and it only loads AAC.

iTunes & iPods do support MP3s. I can even set iTunes to encode CDs to MP3 format instead of the default AAC.

You are also using a definition of "easy" that I'm not familiar with.

In many Linux distros, they don't ship with the software to encode or play MP3s. So, you have to either 1) specifically shop for a player that supports ogg or 2) download extra software from 3rd party repositories before you even start encoding. As for buying online, your options are eMusic (good but no big names) or the russian mafia (and you have to install the MP3s libraries first before buying online in either case). That's "easy"?

If I want to add some music to my iPod, I just encode the CD from my collection or buy it off iTMS (or eMusic) and then add the song to the playlist for my iPod in iTunes. The next time I plug in my iPod, iTunes will open and automatically sync the iPod (including my appointment calendar). Now that's easy.

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[7Prime]

You missed the point, again. iTunes, by default is set to import CDs to AAC (I forget which bit rate). Changing to mp3 requires the user to go into the scary "Advanced > Importing" tab in the preference pane. MANY people, if not most, don't even notice that their ripping to AAC instead of MP3, since they use the "import" button on their CDs instead of choosing the "Convert Selection to [whatever]" option. The point is, to switch to mp3s you have to:

1. Know that iTunes is NOT innitially setup to rip to MP3
2. Have a desire to switch from AACs to MP3s
3. Know how and where to switch the settings over, or have a desire enough to look it up in help

Only a very small segment of the population are going to go "out of their way" (even if it's a fairly small trip) to switch, and most don't even know it. By the time many people do realize that they're encoding AACs, they've been already working out fine for them on the iPod, so they have no real desire to switch. On top of that, when they DO get interested in learning the difference, they have the entire internet, as well as Apple Computer saying, "AACs are better than MP3s" (which they are).

So no, I would be willing to guess that a good 75% of ALL CD imported tunes on digital music players are AACs. The MP3 is dead, most people don't even know it.

Re:that's because they are addicted to entertainme

[Anonymous Coward]

All out of drugs, hippie?

Why the iPod is Losing its Cool?

[benplaut]

Because of overheating exploding batteries.

Duh.

28% of the population owns an mp3 player

[Anonymous Coward]

Only about 28% of the population owns an MP3 player, so far. With almost every service (other the "iTunes") using the wma format, you'd be stupid to buy an ipod. There is going to be many more free and pay services that use wma in the near future. iPod had its 15 minutes of fame, goodbye...

Blah, why is it always a "512 MB - 1 GB" range...

[Anonymous Coward]

That seems to be the only range a lot of companies will go with their mini-flash mp3 players.

I might be intersted if they end up with a 4GB or at least a 2GB version.

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[gameforge]

I went to the trouble to do some blind listening tests to determine whether, to my ears, AAC was any better than MP3 at identical encoding rates

And which MP3 encoder did you use? If you used lame, where was your Q factor set?

If you rip a CD track to 128Kbps MP3 with a very high Q factor (like 9) you will get a surprisingly decent sounding MP3. Conversely, if you rip a 224Kbps MP3 with a Q factor of 0 or 1, you may still get watery artifacts in the sound.

The thing about the Q factor is that it doesn't change the size of the file; only the time it takes to encode it. You can rip a CD pretty damn quickly to 128Kbps with a low Q factor. The higher the Kbps, the faster it gets (as it is doing less processing). But if you set the Q to 9, it takes FAR longer, even at large bitrates.

A 128Kbps MP3 isn't just a 128Kbps MP3 any way you cut it.

Now, if you intent to tell me that AAC @ 160Kbps sounded better than a Q9 160Kbps MP3, I'm highly inclined not to believe you. Otherwise, I'd check out lame - then do your blind listening tests again.

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[prockcore]

PLUS, they are smaller than MP3s.

If your argument is 160kbps AAC sounds as good as 192kbps mp3 then yes, they are "smaller".

But a 160kbps AAC is the exact same size as a 160kbps mp3.

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[nwbvt]

"There doesn't seem so much of a crack in any edifice as much as there's ultimately a saturation of the marketplace."

Well the hope is probably that people will eventually want to upgrade them after a few years, like you would a computer. Of course that would require them to come out with new features that would justify buying a new unit, and the only thing that has come out recently is video.

And I'm also curious how much competing devices are eating up Apple sales. There are plenty of other, better, digital music players out there, plus other devices like phones that can play music.

"the sale of feature-length films via the internet for viewing on the devices, which may receive an expanded 'widescreen' and improved storage capacity."

If this does catch on, optometrists are going to make a fortune. Think of all the young eyes that will be permanently damaged by squinting to watch feature-length films on their iPods.

Portable video does have its place. I watch TV shows that I recorded off my TV tuner all the time when I am on vacation (though on an iAudio x5, not an iPod). Its free, they are short enough to fit and not damage my eyes (at least not permanently), and the loss of quality that usually results from recorded TV shows doesn't really matter on such a small screen. But entire movies? Just give me a DVD and let me play it on my widescreen TV with surround sound (ok, I haven't quite gotten the widescreen TV yet, but I will eventually).

What bubble ?

[thrill12]

With the internet 'revolution' we had a "bubble", defined as a large spherical form containing *only* air.
The iPod is not *air*, it's something that actually made sales with genuine content. As such, it is not a "bubble". Choose your analogies carefully peops.
Apart from that, if it should demise now it's the normal way of things. It's on top, and it's going downhill. Apple knows this, why do the investors/stock-traders not know ?

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[CastrTroy]

Once you start putting videos on the ipod and running movies on it, I think you'll quickly find that you lose that 8 hour battery life. If you have the harddrive spinning, and the screen on for the whole time, plus the processor working harder, because there's just so much more data to decode, then you're probably looking at a 2 hour battery life. Which still isn't bad, you could watch 1 movie, but probably not what a lot of people want. You could save on battery power by storing the movies on memory cards, and reading off there, but I suspect the screen would probably be too much of a drain to give the type of experience people expect from iPods.

Well

[jofi]

If I buy an MP3 player I don't expect to buy a phone, a home entertainment system, a bread slicer and wipes my ass for me too.

The market is not saturated.

[Canis Latrans]

At some point, pretty much everyone who wants an iPod gets one, and by now that's pretty much done (anyone hear any recent "I want an iPod" whines from anyone?).

Acually, yeah.. I still want one but I haven't gotten one. Even though I've got a good income and I'm a techno-nerd (I work as a software developer for a game company), I still can't bring myself to shell out $300 for a toy like this. Now, $100-$150 would work for me.

The point is, I don't think the market is anywhere near saturated. I think the problem is that the price point for iPods has not really come down since they came out. Instead of the price coming down, they keep adding on more and more features that I don't need, like color screens and video, that keep them around the same exorbitant price.

There are lots of other Mp3 players in my price range. In fact I already own a 512 MB flash player that I bought a few years ago. I'd really like to upgrade to something that would hold my entire music collection (so, something with more than 20 GB of storage), so what I'm really waiting for is something with that kind of capacity that's not too much more than $100.

This report is pure FUD. Look at the stats.

[47Ronin]

All you have to do is compare the year-over-year numbers. Q3 may be low every year, but the numbers get larger year-over-year. The guys at the Guardian obviously understand NOTHING about market and fiscal trends.

iPod unit sales:

----- 2004
Q4 03: 336,000
Q1 04: 733,000 (holiday quarter)
Q2 04: 807,000
Q3 04: 860,000
Q4 04: 2,016,000

----- 2005
Q1 05: 4,580,000 (holiday quarter)
Q2 05: 5,311,000
Q3 05: 6,155,000
Q4 05: 6,451,000

----- 2006
Q1 06: 14,043,000 (holiday quarter)
Q2 06: 8,526,000
Q3 06: 8,111,000

Crunch all you want, we'll make more!

[Anonymous Coward]

"Analysts warn there may not be enough consumers to continue further marketplace growth. ''It may take upwards of 20 years to assure an influx of new spending power, providing new avenues can be pursued for generating a consumer base. Especially that totally hot secretary in the lobby.''"

Sorry, just channeling The Onion.

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[ericdano]

Nope. A 2:38 minute song encoded as AAC is 3132KB, and as a VBR MP3 at 160 is 3252KB.

So.....that's the same size? Nope.

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[MacJedi]

The MP3 is dead, most people don't even know it.

Bwhahahahah! I'm sorry, it's just that... .hahahahahahah chortle.... whipes eyes.

Man, that's a good one.

Season

[bendodge]

"Sales are down since Christmas." Hmmm...

Re:Not just DRM but client fatigue. Free is better

[steve_bryan]

You need a special client to load it and it only loads AAC.

In your overbearing zeal you either don't know what you are talking about or you are lying. In addition to AAC files from iTMS you also have the choices of mp3, AIFF, and Apple lossless. That is just the audio music formats. You also have video and spoken audio (audio books) as choices. In your excitement to declare the king is dead you should be more careful about your accuracy or face being dismissed as an untrustworthy voice motivated more by spite than knowledge.

Sounds like someone is short AAPL stock

[Anonymous Coward]

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AAPL&p=D&b=5&g=0& id=p81573909572

It's just popping up through resistance at 72, where it was before the market tanked in May.
Enough to make someone betting against it nervous, and a nice time for convenient bad press.

Re:Not just DRM but client fatigue. Free is better

[jb.hl.com]

you should be more careful about your accuracy or face being dismissed as an untrustworthy voice motivated more by spite than knowledge

Twitter IS an untrustworthy voice motivated more by spite than knowledge. His rants against "M$" and "Windoze" (which he hasn't actually used since Windows 98) are legend here.

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[Anonymous Coward]

Cretin...

160 kilo-bits per second... multiplied by how many seconds (2:38 = 158 seconds)... that is your file size, not counting any slight differences in headers.

A 160kbps AAC file is the same size as a 160kbps MP3 or a 160bps ogg or a 160kpbs wma file. Any size benefit you get from a codec comes from the fact that with newer, better, codecs you can use a lower bitrate (hence smaller file) and still get the same quality.

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[bigredtint]

That has got to be the worst freaking rationale for doing anything I have heard in a long time. That's like saying I only murder people because there are laws saying I shouldn't, and I will only stop once it becomes OK to murder freely. Why is this modded insightful?

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[jacksonj04]

Stopped updating their iPods because it was too much work? This I refuse to believe, you plug it in and iTunes syncs. If you don't like that behaviour, realise that iPod and iTunes is a duet which are designed to work with each other then go get a cheap and cheerful 'stick' you can just drag music onto.

I personally love the fact that I only have to keep my music organised in iTunes and my iPod updates every time I connect it, even including podcasts, calendar and contacts.

Portable movies pointless

[zoeblade]

In my opinion, portable video will never be really as successful as portable music.

I think you're right, and I think Apple knows this, which is probably why each new Mac Mini (now with Front Row, a remote control and TV output) has been inching closer and closer to the TV set. I suspect people will download videos via iTunes just so they can watch them on TV almost instantly, without the fuss of having to leave the house, probably ignoring whether they can watch them on their iPod or not.

Re:Portable movies pointless

[drsmithy]

I think you're right, and I think Apple knows this, which is probably why each new Mac Mini (now with Front Row, a remote control and TV output) has been inching closer and closer to the TV set.

Indeed. It's hard to think of a better HTPC than a 1.66Ghz Core Duo Mini running Windows MCE.

And as soon as the Apple resellers wake up and stop trying to flog the old Minis for a paltry $10 less than a new one from Apple, I'll be buying one to do just that.

Re:Portable movies pointless

[Anonymous Coward]

Indeed. It's hard to think of a better HTPC than a 1.66Ghz Core Duo Mini running Windows MCE.

I think it's very easy to think of a better HTPC for running Windows MCE. Since PVR features are an important part of Windows MCE, a PC with an interal TV tuner would be better than a Mac mini w/external TV tuner box. Video and losslessly compressed audio take up lots of hard disk space, so a PC than uses a desktop hard drive would be better than Mac mini and its low-capacity notebook hard drive. Burning recorded video onto DVDs is an important feature of Windows MCE, so a PC with a DVD burner would be better than the 1.66 Core Duo mini, which only has a combo drive. A PC with and HDCP video output would be better than a Mac mini.

I think the Mac mini is a very nice SFF, but it's a lousy HTPC. A computer that small cannot fit the components needed for a good HTPC.

Re:Portable movies pointless

[mike2R]

And as soon as the Apple resellers wake up and stop trying to flog the old Minis for a paltry $10 less than a new one from Apple, I'll be buying one to do just that.

At a guess they're probably ex-demo or authorised refurbished stock (ie stuff that has been returned to Apple) rather than true refurbs - Apple controls the price on these, and there just isn't enough margin on a mini to cut the price to a level where it's more attractive than buying new - remember your probably selling it as an individual unit (more hassle) without any Apple phone support (have to support it yourself), so you need to make more on a refurb than you do on a new machine.

Re:Portable movies pointless

[xrobertcmx]

The thing I like about having a portable video player is that I can take it to the gym, put it on the ledge of the eliptical machine and go. Pinky and the Brain, Animaniacs, you name it, if it has a nice format that fits into the 45 minutes to a hour I spend there I watch it.

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[uhlume]

Clearly you don't understand what 'VBR' stands for, or you wouldn't be making that idiotic comparison.

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[abandonment]

This is probably the biggest thing that apple & other 'convergent' device manufacturers are missing.

all of the new 'video on your celphone' pushes just make me laugh - who's seriously going to download video onto their celphone at the cost that it ends up being (few fixed data rate plans) plus the fact that people watch movies on their 40" TV's, not a 2 inch micro screen.

Everyone I have seen using their Ipod is using WHILE doing other things - it's not a 'lets sit around the house and listen to music' - so video doesn't fit into this model at all.

Apple needs to be pushing the wireless transmission from ipod's to their traditional devices (ie stereo's, tv's etc) instead of worrying about bigger screens, clunkier devices etc.

Providing wireless transmission from the Ipod (which is supposedly near/coming out soon) would take Ipod's out of the 'walkman' category into the 'portable media station' one, which would be a huge jump imho.

i already drag around portable harddrives packed with movies & mp3's - it's my 'portable music collection' - having an ipod sized device with 120 Gb of video / music on it would be a huge benefit to a lot of people.

Re:that's because they are addicted to entertainme

[Ai Olor-Wile]

Your mom, Anonymous Coward. Your mom.

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[MobileTatsu-NJG]

It wasn't all that long ago that iTunes sold it's 100 millionth song. With numbers like that, you cannot brush the iTunes DRM under the carpet.

"Any random anti-DRM screed is sure to get modded +5 on Slashdot, but you should put in the extra work and have it at least make some kind of sense."

Any random defense of Apple is sure to get modded +5 on Slashdot, but you should have put in the extra work and made sense of the point he was making. Especially this bit: "They want to turn it on, and not have to worry that the computer from which they're trying to transfer music is "iTunes anointed" or not." This happens. Get a new desktop? 'Annoint' a license to iTunes. 5 years have gone by, and on average, people get new machnies every two years. iTunes is largely successful. When you look at this data and dismiss it by saying "Nahh, that's not happening. Slashdot just likes to mod up anti-DRM comments." you sound like Rush Limbaugh in defense of Bush.

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[ericdano]

VBR is Variable Bit Rate. Why is that an "idiotic comparison"? AAC has VBR in it as well.

NiMH AA/AAA rechargables are available

[Anonymous Coward]

NiMH AA/AAA rechargables are available if you feel like pretending to be "environmentally conscious." Now, I'm off to shoot a few endangered species, before somebody else gets the last one :P

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[AJWM]

They buy music so that they can do something else and not get so bored doing it.

Back when I bought music, it was mostly so that I could listen to it, and the radio was for background. That was back before the web and before video/DVD. Who "just listens" to music anymore? (And if I am just listening to music, it won't be to some compressed crap on tinny earbuds, but to vinyl or CD over real speakers.)

Nowadays, I fill the "do something else and not get bored" niche with books-on-tape (or disc), from the library. (Mostly fiction, and some non-fiction that I wouldn't otherwise take the time to read.) Works great for those hour-long commutes or just doing clean-up around the house. Music still works though as background for reading or writing, because it's harder to do either of those and listen to a story at the same time.

It's not losing its 'cool'

[Anonymous Coward]

Firstly, I've not read TFA nor have I read any comments - I just thought I'd offer my input as someone who deals with iPod's on a daily basis.

I work for the largest electrical retailer in the UK and every single day there are people chewing our hands off for iPod's. Currently stock is low in the entire company, and this is due to supply issues from Apple -- they're not making enough to meet demand. The fact that people don't want them anymore is absolute bullcrap.

When offered an alternative a lot of people couldn't care less about what Samsung/Sony/Creative have to offer.

Not "uncool"

[bilbravo]

Just that everyone has one (as many others have said, and I agreed with above...).

However, off topic, I think it's time that Apple consider letting others play with iTunes on their devices. They make a killing off of those songs I'm sure, because they don't produce the music... just pipe it out to people. With all of the other players coming out, the iPod surely won't continue to hold the huge share it does now... although it will probably always (if not just for a short while) be the vast majority of players out there. But if Apple lets others play iTunes on their devices, the ITMS will see even bigger profits.

Falling out of favor?

[midifarm]

To be replaced by what? Nothing is gaining favor or marketshare. There aren't cheaper alternatives to leagally d/l a song and keep it. So where is this going? It's now reached the stage of appliance if they've sold 60M units. There are more to come. The Zune will not even reach it's target, even if they give one away with Xbox 360 or Vista purchase. So what is the point of the article, to state that there's probably a critical mass nearing and saturation? Perhaps, or maybe they're setting up the rest of us for the announcement on the 12th. The iPod isn't going bye bye any time soon.

Peace

Re:Falling out of favor?

[MtViewGuy]

What is interesting is that increasingly, the biggest competitor to the iPod could come from Sandisk, one of the world's largest maker of flash memory modules for digital still cameras. If you've seen the Sansa e200 series player, Sandisk has come up with an excellent portable music player, one that has good sound quality and is easy to navigate around and copy files to the player.

I expect the iPod Nano replacement to have flash memory storage about the same as the Sansa e200 series--8 GB, 6 GB and 4 GB in capacity, and probably price about the same as the Sandisk units (US$250 for the 8 GB, US$200 for the 6 GB and US$150 for the 4 GB units).

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[nuggetman]

Is there any (non-anecdotal) evidence to back up the above assertion?

The fact the only DRM'd tracks in iTunes are those you buy from the iTMS which are not in MP3 format?

Thank God!

[Anonymous Coward]

After years of feeding my piggy bank, and finally rising enough funds to buy a Super-cool iPod, I was getting affraid it was too late. Now, thank to you, my hopes are still alive! Thanks!

Invented this industry?

[ClosedSource]

"Maybe the guy who invented this industry will be able to come up with a new idea to revive its sales and move it forward. "

Steve Jobs hasn't invented any industry to my knowledge. Certainly not the home computer industry or the MP3 music player industry.

Re:Invented this industry?

[WilliamSChips]

He invented the iNdustry.

Re:Invented this industry?

[notnAP]

Inventing a product is different than inventing an industry. The point I was making was that Apple is the company that took the idea, the invention, and the technology known to most as the iPod and made a market out of it.
Perhaps I would have better worded my comment by saying they "created a market" instead of "invented an industry."

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[WgT2]

"..., but I don't think this is a growth niche any longer."

Spot on.

Enough said.

Passed it's peak? Of course it...

[mcho]

...because the majority of people who want one have one. Now iPod sales will be more cyclical and based on getting the maginal number of customers who either don't have one or want to upgrade.

Besides, clearly the next trend will be the muffler whistle...whistle go woo woooo!

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[noamsml]

Exactly, I have an iRiver T30, into which I put almost exclusively music ripped from my CD collection. I don't buy music online, but I don't violate the copyright of music either.

The "average" user

[payndz]

From TFA: the average mobile phone user gets a new handset every 18 months

Huh. I got my first (and so far only) mobile phone in 2000, and am still using it on the same pay-as-you-go tariff. So now in 2006, am I 16x better than average, or 16x worse?

(I know what the answer is from the phone company's perspective, of course...)

As for the iPod, I'm a Guardian reader, but this article is frankly retarded. Sales are down compared to pre-Christmas when there hasn't been a product update for a while? No shit, Sherlock! As for the idea that some people might get upset that everybody is wearing the same white earbuds... well boo fucking hoo, fashion victim. (Maybe Zune will have red earbuds.) You go find something that's demonstrably better than an iPod in every respect - including that apparently all-important fashion factor - and get back to me. I can wait.

Yup, still waiting...

^^^ Correct Answer

[Black-Man]

iPod updates coming soon. Teenagers "pleased".

people are getting wise

[BeCre8iv]

to the scam that is iTunes

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[Anonymous Coward]

I totally agree with your point of view concerning market saturation, but the research you are citing seems to be a bit off. It is true that people are not interested in long-form video on certain types of technological devices, namely long-form video streamed directly from the Internet. Consumers, such as the Millennial generation (and their Baby Boomer parents to a certain extent), use iTunes and other such devices to download videos to watch on their computers. The killer application that Apple owns is iTunes, essentially the most popular means of distribution for this type of entertainment. The difference between Apple and the Sony Walkman? Sony made a few popular CDs, but they did not own the market on content or its distribution. What's a device without content, anyway? Apple isn't going down, they are simply evolving responsibly based upon solid market research.

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[uhlume]

A) You didn't specify VBR AAC -- you claimed it was a 160Kbps AAC, implying CBR.
B) Even if both were VBR, the comparison is strained, if not completely meaningless, due to differences between MP3 and AAC VBR algorithms. You can claim that 160Kbps VBR AAC sounds better than 160Kbps MP3 (I won't comment on that assertion), but you can't claim that it's "smaller" than MP3: by definition an instantaneous bitrate of 160Kbps is going to occupy the exact same amount of diskspace for AAC, MP3, or any other codec.

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[7Prime]

Can you elaborate? Give me some statics, because I'm not seeing much mp3 exchange going on any more, especially since the #1 distrbution method uses DRM AAC format.

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[sporkmonger]

I expect that Apple is well aware of this. Count on them really trying hard to push the "Halo effect" from here on out. For example, the get-a-free-ipod-with-your-computer promotions.

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[flooey]

There are plenty of other, better, digital music players out there,

I'm curious, what other digital music players do you feel are better than the iPod, and what makes them so?

Oh dear, I've been misslead.

[twitter]

No, it will load AAC, MP3, AIFF, WAV and Apple Lossless files.

Without transcoding or software modification? I understand people with Rockbox can do all sorts of nice things, but none of that is Apple's doing. What does it do out of the box?

Re:Oh dear, I've been misslead.

[blugu64]

"No, it will load AAC, MP3, AIFF, WAV and Apple Lossless files."

Ya, it'll play those formats right out of the box. I think it'll play Ogg with Rockbox but don't quote me.

Re:Oh dear, I've been misslead.

[GaryPatterson]

It's not hidden information:

http://www.apple.com/ipod/specs.html

(look down at audio support)

Re:Oh dear, I've been misslead.

[Bobsledboy]

It plays those formats out of the box. The real kicker with Rockbox is that it plays Flac, supports gapless playback, crossfading and all sorts of fancy features not available in the Apple firmware. The ipods are amazing pieces of hardware, especially the video ones and Apple is definitely underutilising the hardware, if only to cut down on scary options for the average user.

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[ericdano]

Point A, true. I did not specify AAC VBR. Actually, it was NOT AAC VBR. If it was, the result would have been smaller.

Point B. Ok, It does occupy the same amount of diskspace. But, it does sound better. To get something that sounds as good as an 160 AAC you need to have MP3 encode at 192 or higher. So, the file size is higher then.

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[jpatters]

You know, it actually is possible to stick it to the RIAA without resorting to ripping, burning, and sharing, as you put it. Simply buy all your CD's used. It is cheaper, and better audio quality than iTunes.

Gift in the Trash.

[twitter]

Very few people are both rich enough to throw away new items unopened, and stupid enough to buy things they don't even want.

Ah, but lots of people receive gifts they did not ask for. If you have to install software for it, it's too much work for many people.

Re:Gift in the Trash.

[Toby_Tyke]

Oh hell, I just can't resist this one.

. If you have to install software for it, it's too much work for many people

I take it then, that you recomend those people buy one of the many MP3 players that use windows media player as their frontend, so they don't have to install anything? After all, even if they bought one that just shows up as an external hard drive in explorer, they'd still have to install some sort of software to rip CDs, unless they use WMP, which ships with every Windows PC and will happily rip CDs to WMA, which is supported by nearly MP3 player out there other than the ipod.

Re:Gift in the Trash.

[Achromatic1978]

No, twitter is living in magical fairy land where he gets his iPod from mommy for his birthday, "doesn't want it", doesn't want to "have to install software", so "throws it away, unopened".

This same magical fairy land is one where music spews forth from musicians in an unencumbered Ogg format, and finds its way onto his player via USB 2.0 cables with no UI, because it's just like managing a drive.

Personally, if this is the way it is, I want the blue pill.

Re:Gift in the Trash.

[jb.hl.com]

Have you seen his wife? He needs all the blue pills he can get...

Re:Gift in the Trash.

[WilliamSChips]

As opposed to your Myspace girlfriend?

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[Mr. Lucas Brice]

You can use a software program to remove the DRM from iTunes files. Or you can just burn them onto a re-recordable CDR and then rip them back onto your HD. You can then re-use the CDR.

Believing the analysts

[Infonaut]

It is interesting to me that so many Slashdot readers are taking it as a given that the analysts are correct on this one, even though the latter(and many Slashdot readers as well) have been wrong about the iPod pretty much every step of the way, and have a long history of not really grokking Apple. I agree that Apple needs to do something new, either by coming out with a completely new product that leapfrogs ahead of the iPod, or by some other means.

But the problem with forecasts like this is that they never take into account human creativity. The default assumption is that the engineers and designers at Apple (or any other company they examine) can't possibly come up with anything to supplant the currently successful product. Given Apple's track record since the return of Jobs, I'm willing to bet that the company's best days are not behind it.

The Halo Effect of iPod sales is very real. Macs, particularly laptops, have made an impressive comeback. You can bet they'll do more with the Intel-powered Macs than they're letting on now. The iTMS has been a huge success, and Apple can use that to springboard into a variety of media distribution plans, depending on where they want to take it. My guess is that when Apple introduces the new video service, there will be more to it than most pundits have predicted.

Particularly, I see Apple finally bringing consumers a truly easy way to snag video content via the Internet and play it back on a variety of devices easily. Integration isn't just about bringing technology to bear on a problem; it's also about making the technology easy enough for John Q. Public to use. With the success of the iPod, the buying public looks to Apple for easy to use media playback devices.

My predictions are, of course, not any more valuable than those from Wall Street. However, I am continually struck by the limited the range of vision of the Wall Street analysts, and by how frequently people actually listen to them.

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[XCondE]

The majority of iPod users use MP3s, which aren't affected by DRM

Could you point us to that statistic?

(...)
And it isn't a scientific survey, but every person I know who's technologically savvy enough to be downloading MP3s is also downloadings .avi's. Here in China MP4 compliance is a big selling point for cell phones

Mate, you are a computer geek posting to Slashdot from China. What makes you think your sphere of friends is any expressive sample of the market?

This article is paid by Microsoft

[TVAFR]

Many of was wandered how Microsoft was going to sell its Zune music player? Why, of course by declaring iPod "uncool"! Expect more of this kind of articles coming.

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[TrekCycling]

Yeah, I think DRM fatigue has finally set in. About time. Don't know if anything will come of it, but it's nice to see. I personally buy albums all the time as well. I actually subscribe to Rhapsody (that's where I discover new music lots of the time and they have a web-based service that works on LInux), then I buy the albums when I like them, so I can listen to them in the car, on my Palm, on my home Linux machine, etc. DRM-free.

That's what I find so whacky about the RIAA's tactics. I think people love music enough that they're still willing to pay for it. I am. I'm willing to buy CDs if I like the band's work. I just wish more money was going to the bands.

Re:Not just DRM but client fatigue. Free is better

[twitter]

In your excitement to declare the king is dead you should be more careful about your accuracy or face being dismissed as an untrustworthy voice motivated more by spite than knowledge.

I wish people would concentrate on the positive rather than the negative things I present. TrekStore has made the simple player so many people want and I expect there's much more where that came from. It's got MP3 for those who ripped to that format before license and royalty free ogg. License encumbered formats are not something I really care for and expect device makers feel the same way when pressed for fees and threatened with lawsuits, like Sandisk recently was. The free future is not about killing the non free kings it's about liberating all of us non free serfs.

Having been mod bombed again, I'm going to re post with controversial portions edited out. That iPod might play an MP3 without transcoding or that Amarok and others might have reverse engineered the interface so that you don't absolutely positively have to use iTunes are trivial details in a non free clusterfuck. iPod is nice hardware, but it's owned and run in a very non free way that will ultimately be viewed as cumbersome.

It's the interface

[gelfling]

iPod's interface is remarkably efficient and usable. It appears to be based on real world testing and not some crappy faux retro Hi-Fi panel designed by software engineers in a vacuum. It has what you need and little if anything of what you don't. So if iPod moves forward and gets bigger it will be through interface improvements. Anything else they look at: more bells and whistles, hardware add-ons, opening up the hardware, etc etc will be only a short term crack-hit. Because in the end, the device is rather easy to create, a bunch of codecs, some controllers, a power source, storage. I have a cheap Chinese mp3 player that has all that albeit not as much storage. But it's the interface on my cheap-o that sucks. This BTW is why Zune will fail. MS has an uncanny ability to jam its bad interface ideas down on people. I'm sure it will look like Windows for PDA's and have Outlook built in etc etc. which will leave most people spending their time fumbling with the device instead of enjoying it.

Fairuse4wm will also hurt...

[spiritraveller]

Because iPods don't support WMA. If Microsoft can't keep its DRM hole patched, there will soon be a lot of people paying their $15 a month to subscribe to Napster2go or Rhapsody2go or Urge or whatever else is out there... because they know that they can strip the DRM off.

It's a cold hard fact that if people can cheat the system, they will... and those people will want players that play the songs they've "stolen". Those will be players that play the music in the downloaded format: WMA files.

I wonder how much of an effect this will have on iPod sales. Obviously, it's too early to tell.

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[Anonymous Coward]

There are plenty of other, better, digital music players out there...

You disgust me.
--
Sick of pompous windbags? Change "Karma Bonus" modifier to -1 penalty.

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[Registered Coward v2]

Once you start putting videos on the ipod and running movies on it, I think you'll quickly find that you lose that 8 hour battery life. If you have the harddrive spinning, and the screen on for the whole time, plus the processor working harder, because there's just so much more data to decode, then you're probably looking at a 2 hour battery life. Which still isn't bad, you could watch 1 movie, but probably not what a lot of people want. You could save on battery power by storing the movies on memory cards, and reading off there, but I suspect the screen would probably be too much of a drain to give the type of experience people expect from iPods.

I agree memory cards are better - I regularly get 6 plus hours off of my PSP with movies on MS; with flash so cheap you could put in the HD and 1 or 2 gigs of cache and just fetch and store the desired movie and shutdown the HD. A higher capacity battery would help as well; as would a removable one for those really long flights or trips.

Either way, a small portable movie viewer is what I see as the next big thing - especially with decent battery life and instant on]off/resume; video out would be nice as well. All around $250, BTW.

DRM and non free fatigue, free is better.

[twitter]

The market for iPods might be out of steam but it's is no where near saturated for portable music players. Think about it, every car has one. The transition from Radio/CD player has just begun that's a market that can be measured in hundreds of millions. iTunes requires too much effort for that market and DRM will likely keep them from filling it. No one wants to press "I agree" or install special software for their car radio. The bigger market demands "works out of the box" ease. Neither Apple nor Microsoft will be able to fill the bill.

That some people have not bothered to set up their iPods is good evidence that there's too much work needed. How many $100 gadgets have you left in their box? Throwing away $100 says a lot about the effort required to make it work for the user. A player that needs special softare because it does not use a published mass storage interface is at a disadvantage.

Like someone else pointed out, iTunes and iPod are not easy. Easy is being able to plug the device in and use any client to talk to it through a standard mass storage protocol, without having to transcode your files. iPod does not do this. You need a special, non free client to load it. Amarok or the free player of your choice and a cheap, multiformat player beat the shit out of the traditional iPod. Zune, of course, will be worse.

Availability of decent players is a problem that's going away and people are going to sell whole systems using them. Want ogg, mp3 and usbfs? it's finally here and more are on the way. It costs about as much a Shuffle but offers more, like screen and menus. Yes, I've tried it and it works well. The device, like most, was stamped out in China. There will be more where it came from. Remember the cassette tape market? The CD player market is still here. Both of those where huge and rich because openly published standards were employed. iPod and Zune represent an ecosystem that's more like two sharks on a barren reef. Free players based on open standards are calling for device makers to come and make tons of money.

The real killer will be when devices such as the KDE phone mature. Apple has a head start and, limited by all the usual greed heads, they will make a nice phone. Eventually, free software will win out there too. Compare OpenZaurus to Windoze PDA's. Free software brings stability and features to embedded devices which are as obviously superior to their non free counterparts as free desktops are to non free counterparts. $140 laptops spell the end of non free software, devices and culture. The future is free and it will be much, much better.

Re:DRM and non free fatigue, free is better.

[FreakyGeeky]

Like someone else pointed out, iTunes and iPod are not easy.

Not only do I disagree, but I think millions of iPod users would too. iTunes is one of the easiest applications I've encountered, epecially considering what it does.

Easy is being able to plug the device in and use any client to talk to it through a standard mass storage protocol, without having to transcode your files. iPod does not do this.

Since when does iPod transcode mp3s? Nice FUD.

You need a special, non free client to load it.

Don't like iTunes? Use Ephpod. There are other free applications that will work too.

Re:DRM and non free fatigue, free is better.

[Yahweh Doesn't Exist]

>Like someone else pointed out, iTunes and iPod are not easy.

while you don't seem to be a troll, you are definitely ignorant of how iTunes and the iPod work.

to 99.999761% of people easy to use simply means easy to actually use and doesn't come with the philosophical baggage of FOSS or hypothetical situations in which enjoying music has become dependent upon your ability to manually stream data from the iPod to your sound card via a command line.

I honestly think that the only way the iPod could be easier for me to use is if the USB interface was upgraded to sense when I was removing it and then auto-unmount the iPod. then my iPod would be a zero-maintenance device, but until then I'm happy to put up with it requiring a single mouse click.

how would YOU design a music player interface? if it needs more than one click for music, videos, podcasts, audiobooks, photos, calendars, contacts, notes, metadata... then I have no interest.

one click is easy and anything you say otherwise is ignorance or FUD.

Waiting for the next "One More Thing"

[jscotta44]

So...people waiting for the next big thing in iPods from Apple are tantamount to the iPod losing its "cool". I hope this guy didn't offer to eat his own hat if he was wrong and the next iPod update exceeds sales of the previous versions.

Re:Not just DRM but client fatigue. Free is better

[Anonymous Coward]

I wish people would concentrate on the positive rather than the negative things I present.

There are plenty of people here who are willing to at least gain an understanding of the basic facts behind what they say. If you're not willing to make that effort, why should everyone reading what you say have to go through and weed out the bullshit from the fact to find the nuggets of usefulness? You waste people's time.

Modding is right

[Anonymous Coward]

Having been mod bombed again

"Modbombed"? People have this "fatigue" about your constant desperate crusade to convince them to use "Amarok" because it's "better" than iTunes. Are you daft or something?

I'm going to re post with controversial portions edited out. [...] iTunes are trivial details in a non free clusterfuck.

Oh, good for us. I thought you were going to call the iPod/iTunes a "non-free clusterfuck". Oh, wait. You just did.

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[smart.id]

The #1 distribution method? Can you really prove that more music has been obtained using the iTunes music store rather than BitTorrent? Most BitTorrent music I see is in high bitrate MP3s.

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[FreakyGeeky]

Yeah, steps 1, 2, and 3 are rocket science for sure. It takes all of three seconds to set that up.

Besides, it's you that's missing the point. The point was that the iPod plays non-DRM mp3 files without issue. The anti-iPod nerds always want to skip past that bit.

Growth

[sterno]

The major problem with how business is measured in the US is that growth trumps everything. So in order for IPod to be considered successful you have to sell more this year than you did last year and then keep going. Trouble is, of course, is that a successful device tends to be it's own worst enemy because once everybody has one, your sales fall off. Even if you keep convincing those same people to upgrade their pods every 3 or 4 years, you can never achieve the same kind of growth.

So Apple has been successful. They've built a quality product, achieved strong brand recognition, and have made it the most populary music playing device in the world. But ultimately they'll no longer be successful simply because there's only so many people in the world to buy them. So now they have to push the envelope of the ipod, making it do video, be a phone, etc. They do this, not because those are necessarily good ideas, but rather because they have to grow or they'll be judged a failure by the market.

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[Mistshadow2k4]

Very bad analogy. Murder is hardly comparable to copyright infringement, especially since they keep changing the copyright laws in their favor but to the detriment of everyone else.

Ipod thoughts

[adachan]

I received an ipod as a christmas gift last year. Although it is a nice music player and seems to function as advertised, I was never really that impressed as I already have a pocketpc with a 4gig mem card. I find the larger touch screen to be far superior to the ipod and its totally inaccurate touch wheel.

Now, knowing what I can do with the pocketpc, I recently decided to get a pocketpc cell phone. I am streaming media from orb to my phone. After trying this for a while, I have to say that there is no way I would ever use an ipod again. Why don't more people know about this? Essentially I have access to my 4TB media server from my pocektpc. I can use skype over net too to offset my cell bills too. The sound quality is the same as it uses the same audio as the phone.

I just dont understand why when sometihng like this exists, why people are still using things like an ipod. Then again, I like tweaking things and have fun playing with electronic gadgets, not just showing everyone what I spent my money on.

Re:Ipod thoughts

[Achromatic1978]

After trying this for a while, I have to say that there is no way I would ever use an ipod again. Why don't more people know about this? Essentially I have access to my 4TB media server from my pocektpc.

Three queries:

1. 4 terabytes of music? mmhmm
2. streaming, in your house via wifi - if I'm at home, I'll stream to a stereo, not dinky little earphones attached to the dinky little sound processor in any handheld
3. outside of home, unless you're streaming at 64k or so, and on an unlimited data package... not to mention the latency of building playlists off of your 4 terabyte media server.

Re:Ipod thoughts

[adachan]

4TB of media. Video, Music, Photos, etc. Anyone who has 4TB of music doesnt really appreciate music. Now, I too share the music and video from the server in my house to the amp via TOS link in the living room (direct connection) and a CAT5 cable runs to the bedroom to connect the XBOX (with xbox media center) for music in the bedroom (just a direct connection to a cheap TV). Why would anyone listen to music on a handheld in their house? I do not know, and I agree with you, but I am not sure what you were getting at.

Have you actually tried orb? Dont be so skeptical. I have 1mbps uploads from my home cable line. If you think you need more bandwidth for music you are crazy (for mp3 I find 256kbps is fine), but for video I was skeptical at first too. What orb does, is reencode the video on the fly to have a data rate within the limit of your upload speed. The unlimited service from Verizon (50$ per month) is rated at broadband speed (I do not actually know the real numbers) and has plenty of bandwidth to watch video via orb not to mention listening to music.

I am not sure what your points are to me. I do not by any means feel that the average ipod user is going to set this kind of system up, but when it comes down to it, it was no harder to do than using itunes.

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[calculadoru]

You can listen to music while you browse the web, jog, write code.
You can't really watch a video using a portable device while doing those things. (other than porn...)

Dude. You code while watching porn? Would love to see what you end up with.

Obvious Answer

[oddbudman]

Of course it's losing its cool. Lots of people have them - they are no longer an exclusive item. The Ipod is a fashion accessory disguised as a MP3 player, and fashion trends only last so long. Why do you think it took the world by storm in the first place?

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[Anonymous Coward]

No offense, but you're an idiot. Have you walked down any busy street lately? Almost every single person has those tell-tale white headphones in their ears. The decline of iPods sales have nothing to do with "DRM fatigue." It's almost purely because of market saturation. New iPods, other than minor changes in size, are pretty much identical to one another. There are hardly any new, significant features. So unless people want more space/smaller form factor, there's no real reason to buy another one. End of story.

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[timeOday]

Any MP3 player than includes an FM radio and stopwatch is better than an iPod for me. I also prefer something that uses standard batteries.

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[uhlume]

Re: "Point A": I wouldn't necessarily make that assumption -- in fact, if evidence like this is to be believed, VBR AAC will in some, if not most, cases be larger than CBR at the same bitrate settings. Speculation that Apple's "VBR" is in fact a variant of the comparatively-inefficient class of ABR algorithms is also worth noting, though I can't speak to its veracity.

Oh no!

[BluRBD!E]

Could it not possibly be that everyone who is going to buy an ipod has? I don't know about everyone else but IF I bought an ipod I would not upgrade with each new model released.

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[ElleyKitten]

You missed the point, again. iTunes, by default is set to import CDs to AAC (I forget which bit rate).

You missed my point, which is that not everyone uses iTunes. If your preferred method of getting music is through CD or an MP3 download service, like eMusic, then why would you even bother with iTunes? I know a lot more people that have or want an iPod than have used iTunes.

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[schnell]

5 years have gone by, and on average, people get new machines every two years.

I don't have any research to back this up - then again, this is /. so that isn't an issue. Anecdotally, at least, I can tell you that the vast majority of Joe-and-Jane-Sixpack computer users probably don't upgrade their PCs any more often than four or five years. My office - a purportedly high-tech company - is running on primarily four-year-old laptops. Only geeks upgrade them every two years or more. Heck, I don't even buy computers every two years any more - it's more like three, now that the obsolescence curve for everything but cutting-edge games has flattened quite a bit.

This doesn't invalidate your point about DRM, but it does suggest that it's far less onerous to the "average" user than it is to Slashdot alpha nerds. It's tempting to impute our own habits and preferences to the masses, but it's often very inaccurate. (Anyone that really does have some reasonable data on this is very welcome to contradict me here.)

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[Jeremi]

The fact the only DRM'd tracks in iTunes are those you buy from the iTMS which are not in MP3 format?

What about the songs you rip from your own CDs using iTunes? Are those not created in AAC format by default? (I'm not an iPod or iTunes user, so I don't actually know)

MOD PARENT DOWN

[Anonymous Coward]

twitter is re-posting the same thing again because he feels he was "modbombed", as opposed to just modded correctly for his flamebait. Do not let him game the system. He has this insane obsession with forcing everyone to use "Amarok" instead of iTunes and cheapo 1GB no-name players whose main "feature" is to play OGG instead of an iPod.

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[Vexorian]

It is so hard to believe that so many tech companies don't seem to figure out and they keep trying to get portable video which is cool and all but doesn't get past the 'cool' zone into the 'I would like/want/need to use it' zone.

I agree and disagree

[catwh0re]

I agree that iPods have nearly cooked the market in their current form. This will lead to a natural sales decline. However at the same time I don't agree that comparing adjacent quarters is the way to analyse this. Everyone knows that the quarter after christmas sees a sharp decline in sales (of almost everything), in many industries 50% of yearly volumes are made up in the month of december.

If we compare year to year figures the iPod is still growing...but nothing like the 8x to 16x sales jumps we saw in previous years.

With all that said now, a new iPod product with a significant reason to upgrade would entice users to buy the latest and greatest. The cycle is repeatable, you just need a savvy company that is firstly innovative to create a product difference and secondly interested enough to push the envelope in technology. I don't see this being a problem for Apple.

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[JanneM]

all of the new 'video on your celphone' pushes just make me laugh - who's seriously going to download video onto their celphone at the cost that it ends up being (few fixed data rate plans) plus the fact that people watch movies on their 40" TV's, not a 2 inch micro screen.

Everyone I have seen using their Ipod is using WHILE doing other things - it's not a 'lets sit around the house and listen to music' - so video doesn't fit into this model at all.

While I agree that a video iPod is dead in the water, the idea does fit the use-case of a long commute. I use the Osaka subway and local train system to get to work, and the single most common thing people are doing is to use their mobile phones to email, to play games, to listen to music or speech books and to surf the net (the second most common is read a book or comic, with portable games and mp3 players a distant third). Lately, TV-enabled mobile phones are becoming more and more common too.

They're effectively using their phones as a portable entertainment and communication center; nothing much bigger would be useable anyhow. And while the phone/TV screen may be 5-6cm only, it's pretty high resolution and high quality and look at it right up close so it's perfectly fine for viewing your typical morning news and talkshows. You already have book and comic serials downloadable for phone use; adding video is a no-brainer, probably.

But the key for this use is the convergence. For most people, a phone that does only 80-90% of a dedicated device is a lot preferable to actually having a second, dedicated device to carry around on the way to work. And when it comes to convergent devices, the war is over and the mobile phone won.

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[Yahweh Doesn't Exist]

>Any MP3 player than includes an FM radio and stopwatch

aaaaaaaahahahahhahahahaha

"you'll want an mp3 player with a stopwatch"

looks like you sucked up MS's propaganda campaign fully.

unfortunately you failed to see that not only do iPods have stopwatches, you can also do FM radio on them.

simple file management

[fincan]

As long as those fancy ipods (and other brands as well) doesn't allow me to copy my music files via windows explorer (or any file manager on linux), none of them is viable, at least for me.

Re:Not just DRM but client fatigue. Free is better

[Professor_UNIX]

No, it will load AAC, MP3, AIFF, WAV and Apple Lossless files.

But not WMA or DRM protected WMA files. This is a huge disadvantage as every non-iTunes Music Store web site selling music uses WMA. If iTMS stumbles, the iPod is doomed.

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[ehrichweiss]

I don't know about anyone else but 120kb of disk space is not what I'd refer to as a significant savings, and with the savings being about 3%, one might argue that it's not statistically significant either.

Back in the day of 20mb hard drives, 120k might have meant something but these days my drives are 30gb or larger and the block-size on my filesystem is 32k, so I lose more space by writing four 1k files(for the uninitiated, that actually translates to 128k of disk space that's used) than what using AAC would save. I know that means a lot to some but it's not that important to some(most?) of us.

My player(a Philips) accepts music on CDR as mp3(and maybe Ogg, I forget), cost me about $300 less than an IPOD and can immediately play the CD's I buy so I don't have to wait to get home to rip/listen, and if someone likes the music I happen to be listening to(minus the CD I just bought for obvious reasons), I can hand them the CDR and tell them to enjoy, no need for finding a computer, copying, etc. Right now, that flexibility is far cooler to me than having 40 gig of music I can shuffle(and I do NOT want to shuffle my spoken word with my doom metal with my psychedelia with my hip hop nor be forced to make a conscious decision to tell the player NOT to do so)...I already have a 100cd wallet but now it contains CDR's full of mp3's rather than plain CD's. Know how much CDR media I can buy with that $300?

Besides, most of the music I download are already mp3s and I just rip to high quality(224kbs or higher typically) mp3 when I'm rippng my own music and I fit the same number of albums on each CD as I do with a 160kbs since the space savings a 160 might give me will not equal enough to add much more than a couple extra songs. I'm not saying my choices are better but they definitely differ from the ipod's audience and have more thought than "oooh, look..it's SHINY AND NEW...MY PRECIOUS"

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[Yahweh Doesn't Exist]

>even including podcasts, calendar and contacts

and photos, which are automatically optimised for the screen size with an option to have full-res backups available when used as an external hard drive.

also remember that data like song ratings, playlists (smart and fixed), and bookmarks are synced. I often come home listening to a podcast on my iPod, plug into my Mac and play it from there where I left off.

the syncing ability of iPods is so simple and powerful it would take a level of quality that most companies simply can't be bothered with to make me think of turning away.

it's not that doing any of the individual things the iPod does is difficult, it's just that no one else does all of them with such ease.

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[Anonymous Coward]

And it isn't a scientific survey, but every person I know who's technologically savvy enough to be downloading MP3s is also downloadings .avi's. Right and your survey of 'people you know' is really scientific. I download MP3's on a regular basis, but .avi's? Hell no! Files that start around 700mb are too big when your download limit is 2gb. Sure I COULD download massive files like that, but I would spend the rest of the month on a 56kb/s connection instead of my delightful 512kb/s. Sure, I could get more internet.... but I am a student, and I pay my own way. I already pay $70 a month for the pleasure of downloading 2gb.

Everyone head to best buy now!!!

[HaMMeReD3]

I'll goto the store immediatly and buy another ipod video to help increase the numbers by 1.

Seriously though, how many mp3 players over 20gigs do you need. And apple isn't particularily helpful in the upgrading market.

I've had my 60gig video since the week it came out, and I still haven't once even got it close to it's 60gig limit. It tends to hover at around 30gigs, with the odd video clips temporarily making there way to it.

Unless there is good incentive to switch to a higher up model or apple invents some new color I haven't seen, I have no intention of upgrading my ipod for years.

Re:Not just DRM but client fatigue. Free is better

[pyrrhonist]

I wish people would concentrate on the positive rather than the negative things I present. TrekStore has made the simple player so many people want and I expect there's much more where that came from.

I saw the positive. I even clicked on the affiliate link without sanitizing it first! ;)

I took a look at TrekStor's site, and I'm pretty impressed with what they offer. Thanks for the information. I'm looking for an upgrade for my ancient Archos (works with Linux/Windows/Mac and has been very reliable).

It's got MP3 for those who ripped to that format before license and royalty free ogg.

One of TrekStor's other products, the Vibez also plays FLAC! None of their products appear to support AAC (in case anyone wants to know).

License encumbered formats are not something I really care for

It's very hard to find something that doesn't play some license encumbered format. In TrekStor's case they support WMA-DRM9 and WMA-DRM10 (Janus).

Having been mod bombed again, I'm going to re post with controversial portions edited out.

I think you got bombed, because of your comment about the iPod not being able to play anything other than AAC without transcoding. You might have been thinking of Sony music players, which for a very long time didn't support playing anything other than native Sony formats without transcoding.

Again, thanks for the links...

Wrong on so many levels

[Karlt1]

"Other complaints are that iTunes [Apple's online music store] is overpriced"

Overpriced compared to what? Free pirated music? All of the music stores that sell non-Indie music is seling for 99c accept for Walmart and Walmart is behind ITunes, Rhapsody, and Napster.

"In our ethnography interviews, some long-time iPod-users told us that they have stopped updating their iPods because it's too much work"

Using both Macs and Windows XP you just plug it in. Why couldn't they give a specific percentage of people?

" while other consumers who had bought iPods more recently had not even taken theirs out of the package to set it up.'"

Again no real numbers

"Analysts warn that the iPod has passed its peak. From its launch five years ago its sales graph showed a consistent upward curve, culminating in a period around last Christmas that saw a record 14 million sold."

During the fourth calendar quarter sells of consumer items peak --- news at 11. That's why economist compare on a "seasonally adjusted basis".

"He cited new mobile phones with improved MP3 players as the cause of the iPod's dwindling appeal"

http://news.com.com/Mobile+content+not+clicking+wi th+consumers/2100-1026_3-6113998.html?tag=nefd.top

10% -- users who buy ringtones for mobile phones
0.4% -- users who paid for video
28% -- 15 million subscribers downloaded some type of content

So who are all of these people buying music from their cellphone?

I have a Samsung a900 that plays MP3 and AAC formatted music as well as Sprint's music store music. I can transfer music from my Mac using either Bluetooth or the included usb cable. The interface is decent but music drains the battery life. On top of that I have only 80MB to store music on. Even on Sprint's other phones that do accept a MicroSD card you can only get up to 2GB. I'll keep my Nano.

Re:Wrong on so many levels

[oliverthered]

I can buy an album with 13 songs on it for about $10 and they aren't in a lossy format or crippled with DRM and I get a free coaster and cd case.

99c is expensive for lossy DRM crippled music, something like 20c would be closer to the mark.

Re:Wrong on so many levels

[Karlt1]

The whole idea is that many people don't want to buy the whole album....But what is the value of a CD and a CD case?

Re:Wrong on so many levels

[oliverthered]

The value of a CD is in actually owning a product as apposed to the value of a DRM song which you license.

Re:Wrong on so many levels

[Zoop]

I've had run-ins with this guy before. He'll go to any blog, no matter how small, to push the idea that cellphones are the future, and anything else is just a mistake.

He claims the market is ginormous for music downloads outside the US, and compares it to iTunes Music Store sales. However, he also lists several countries in which there is no iTunes Music Store available, so his numbers are meaningless.

From the FA

[ScrewMaster]

Three out of every four MP3 players sold are iPods, but the device could be challenged later this year by Zune, the contender from Microsoft, whose billionaire founder Bill Gates is not used to losing.

Who is this guy kidding? Other than his core profit centers of operating systems and office suites, Bill Gates should be rather accustomed to failure by now.

MOD ABUSE - Did this really deserve a -1 TROLL?

[Anonymous Coward]

Did this really deserve a -1 TROLL?

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[badasscat]

Can you elaborate? Give me some statics, because I'm not seeing much mp3 exchange going on any more,

Are you kidding? Here: http://www.theregister.co.uk/2006/08/29/spiralfrog _launch/

The relevant statistic: "The International Federation of Phonographic Industries estimates there's currently 40 illegal downloads to every single legal one."

So there are 40 times more illegal downloads than legal ones (note that this does not contradict recent reports that 35% of downloaders are using legal services - they just also use illegal ones, and they download more illegally). And have you bothered actually searching any of the file sharing networks? Almost everything available is LAME-encoded mp3. A few are WMA, but they don't get much of a swarm. Almost nothing is available in AAC.

If you start with the premise that illegal downloads outnumber legal ones by 40:1, and you see that most of the illegal downloads are mp3, then it's pretty easy to come to the conclusion that most downloads - whether legal or illegal - are mp3.

That, of course, also doesn't take into account all the people (like me) that have ripped their entire CD collections to mp3, either because we did it before buying an iPod (you know, iTunes was hardly the first CD ripper) or because we made a conscious decision to do it. It also doesn't take into account legal mp3 download services such as eMusic, or those of us subscribing to a legal service such as Napster and then converting those wma tracks to mp3 with FairUse4WM.

There was also a statistic floating around a while back (and you can google for it, I don't remember where it came from) that said that iPod users, on average, downloaded 21 tracks from iTunes. That's not even 2 albums worth per iPod owner. Do you really think all these people are walking around with gigabytes full of empty space on their iPods? No, they're loading it up with mp3's they've ripped themselves, or gotten from legal download sites (and possibly converted), or, god forbid, gotten from a file sharing network or "questionable" overseas download sites.

mp3 is hardly dead. It will, in fact, never be dead. Too many people already have thousands of songs ripped to the format (and many did before the iPod was even a glint in Steve Jobs' eye), and there's just no incentive for them to re-rip. So every player must support mp3 to be successful (Sony's failure proved that), meaning there is simply no way to force the format's obsolescence.

As far as lossy compression goes, there is simply no other format that matters. (Sorry to you OSS guys, but vorbis just isn't very ubiquitous.) No lossy format will ever replace mp3. What may eventually replace it is a lossless compression format, and that's really the only opportunity for the record labels to make DRM successful. Start releasing albums in Apple Lossless via iTunes and then maybe you'll get some DRM acceptance, because it's difficult to find lossless files on file sharing networks.

Oh, and as to the original article at question here - surprise! Products sell better at Christmas than during the dead of summer. Did anybody bother to look at the quarterly results year over year rather than quarter to quarter?

Best Like Nikon

[Anonymous Coward]

FTFA: "if you're a musician or a DJ you'll use it because it's the best, like a photographer with his Nikon camera."

I always wondered why people wanted a device that is demonstrably inferior to other products on the market but I had never made the connection with cameras. Nikon's digital cameras are also demonstrably inferior cameras to Canon (in terms of objective measures of image quality) and yet people think Nikons are the apex of quality. It just goes to show the power of branding over substance.

Re:Best Like Nikon

[Achromatic1978]

You answered your own question - not all the world is digital. That being said, the area that Nikon has to improve with its digital line is the image processor. The Canon DIGIC II is noticeably better than the Nikon offerings... but if you look at lenses, the Nikon stuff holds its own.

And I say that as someone with an amateur level early 80s Nikon film camera (the FG) and a couple of Tamron aftermarket lenses - though I've used many of the Nikon digitals (I was debating a D2x) - conversely, I have an EOS 5D and several thousand dollars worth of glass.

The image processing is keeping the Nikon back, but it's not an insurmountable problem.

Mobile Phones

[emjoi_gently]

It's obvious music playing is being folded into Phones, as with alot of PDA functions and cameras.

All these functions stuffed into one gadget, with built in convenient way of exchanging data between users.

An extra gadget in the pocket is just a nuicance.
It's still early days, but give it a year or so and the point of carrying a stand-alone MP3 player will just disappear.

Re:Mobile Phones

[DDLKermit007]

I've been hearing that since the original Rio came out (hell I even used to spew the nonsense). Still hasn't happened and won't baring massive breathroughs in batteries of mass acceptance of half-life batteries (not happening for a LONG time). Power is a major concern and anyone like me that uses thier MP3 player for 4+ hours a day will find an all in one device lacking quickly unless the battery is a hulk. Having power run out on an MP3 player is one thing. A cellphone is another. I have a Treo 650 and it plays MP3s nicely. You can even use bluetooth headphones with it for music. Not overly useful however. I'd get less than a days useage out of it listening to MP3s and a cellphone MUST, be reliable, have power at all times or it's pointless. Don't even try the line: "just plug it in every night." I do that (usualy), but some people don't come home every night, and having to tote a cable around to keep the phone charged is not an option.

Re:Mobile Phones

[emjoi_gently]

Actually the power issue is a fair comment.
But give it time. Everything goes through an "awkward, insuffient" phase. And mobile phone companies are always looking to new ways to get people to upgrade to the latest bling bling. They'll eventually get it right.

Re:Mobile Phones

[DDLKermit007]

MP3s really aren't something that'll just find thier way on to cellphones and find mass acceptance among those that use them allot for music. Cellphones have gone through thier phases of getting longer standby times with simple hacks and hardware changes on all sides. Active processing of MP3 files however stays relitvely the same with little wiggle room. Plus it doesn't help that we have never had any real breakthroughs with batteries. You really can't get too much more storage with current technologies. Half-life batteries look good, but they'll likely be kinda expensive lasting 1-3 years at least (thats a way to kill the industry). Plus they have that added benifit of needing to be disposed of properly. Battery acid is bad enough in a dump, but concentrateing even low level radiation in a dump isn't exactly good. Oh yeah, anything to with "radiation" attached it is bad with the sheeple.

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[JWW]

Personally I buy quite a lot of music (about 5-6 albums a week at times).

Good for you. Now can you point me to the place where I can buy one song at a time on CD and not have to buy and ablum with the song I want plus a bunch of other crap for inflated prices?

Oh, wait theres nowhere to do that is there? I agree with your dislike of DRM, but buying CDs and ripping them is only serving the RIAAs greed just as much as buying a DRMed song from iTunes.

It is absolutely crystal clear to anyone who takes a serious look at the music industry that what the customers really want is non DRMed music sold digitally by the song. Of coure this is the last thing the music industry wants to do. The RIAA is so #$%$%# stupid they don't even deserve to exist.

If there were a fair market in digital music without the restrictions of DRM, the music industry would be so busy counting the money they would be making that they wouldn't care about 'piracy' anymore. By they're too greedy and evil to realize this.

Silly days

[InklingBooks]

Yawn, yawn. We must still be in the late summer "silly days," when journalist grasp as straws for a story. A decline from 8.5 million sales to 8.1 million is hardly a matter from concern. Anyone who isn't a twit, i.e. doesn't work for the Guardian or as industry analysis, knows Apple will soon upgrade the iPods so production will be ramped up before Christmas. The Nano will probably jump to an impressive 8 Gig and there may just be a genuine video iPod to match selling movies via the iTunes Store.

In that sort of situation, smart people delay purchases, particularly if they already have an iPod.

--Mike

Re:Silly days

[Achromatic1978]

I can't see any real draw to video on a Nano. Sure, people said the same about the iPod proper, but that had some screen real estate. The Nano screen is the size of a postage stamp, if not less. "But you can plug it into a TV." And?

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[CronoCloud]

An iPod and a PSP? Why not just the PSP? It plays music too, Sure it can't hold your entire library but does it need to?

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[timeOday]

You mean this? It looks good, though at $50 it costs almost as much as my entire Rio. More power to Apple if people will pay that, but it's too rich for my blood, at least given the alternatives.

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[Talinth]

The thing about the Q factor is that it doesn't change the size of the file; only the time it takes to encode it...
...A 128Kbps MP3 isn't just a 128Kbps MP3 any way you cut it.

Unless you're refering to file size, as the thread is. In which case you say yourself the file size is the same.

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[kamapuaa]

A 2 fucking gigabyte download limit? You gotta be joking. Anyway, the vast majority of US broadband users don't have a silly limit like that, I'm sure. Definitely 700MB is no big deal for most broadband users.

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[nwbvt]

Well, my iAudio has

• better sound (and yes, that can be and has been tested),
• longer battery life,
• support for more file types such as ogg vorbis and FLAC (at least using the default firmware, yes if you are willing to void the warrently you can install Rockbox but I'm not going to credit Apple for an open source project that was ported to one of their products due to its lack of features),
• fewer durability questions,
• shorter gaps (though in order to get true gapless play you need to either go with Rockbox or find an old Rio Karma),
• a lower price,
• integration with more online music services (yes I know you can download 'free' mp3s from all over the net, I'm just assuming you care about intellectual property for a second),
• and many features that Apple doesn't have or didn't have at the time it was released (video, fm radio, lyrics),

so I consider it better. I have had some trouble with the company's tech support (though supposedly thats only in the US, they are supposed to be great in other countries), but I've heard that about Apple as well. Of course this is all based on from when I was shopping for digital music players about a year ago, I'm not sure what is on the market now.

To be honest, my main problem with the iPod is its reliance on proprietary technology. You are supposed to use Apple's music store, Apple's music program, Apple's file type... And people complain about vendor lock-in with MS because they include a built-in music player with an operating system?

Yes, it will piss off Mac zealots like my little stalker friend (check the other response to my previous post, and yes he has been doing that for years now whenever I criticize either Apple or neo-Nazis), but I'll say it anyways. Not everything Apple produces is the best on the market just because the Apple guy looks cooler than the PC guy in the commericials.

Cabbage Patch

[Tablizer]

Jobs should glue the iPods to Cabbage Patch dolls and try to put two fads into one to double the life. Call it the iPatch ("eye-patch").

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[ScrewMaster]

So you can burn and rip all you want, RIAA will not care.

The hell they don't. They simply have no easy way to prosecute or intimidate anyone for personal burning and ripping, but they would if they could, fair use not withstanding. The RIAA doesn't believe in or accept the legitimacy of fair use anyway, considering how they reneged on their side of the Audio Home Recording Act. The studios themselves have demonstrated that they are perfectly willing to use DRM, as well as other even less savory technological measures, to control the usage (let alone distribution) of their content.

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[alc6379]

Dude. You code while watching porn? Would love to see what you end up with.

I can't speak for the original poster, but I'll bet it has a lot of pokes, pops, and peeks in it!

Netcraft

[berbo]

I'll believe when it when Netcraft confirms it.

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[billsoxs]

I can't speak for the original poster, but I'll bet it has a lot of pokes, pops, and peeks in it!

Tis a funny thought BUT if the original poster knew how to poke he would not be peeking.

OK - let's look at the stats

[Karelian]

iPod sales used to grow sequentially from 2Q to 3Q - which was evident both in 2004 and 2005. But in 2006, there is a sequential decline from 2Q to 3Q - for the first time in the history of this product. This type of change in the seasonal sales pattern often augurs a transition from high-growth track to a period of slower growth. There is reason to worry about decelerating iPod sales - particularly as Apple is now forced to attempt risky gambits like adding video and phone functionality to maintain momentum. There is a reason why iPods did not add these features in 2004 or 2005 - Jobs realized they are risky moves.

Re:OK - let's look at the stats

[Echnin]

Dude, video functionality _was_ added in 2005. Just about a year ago now. Considering no new models have been released in any of the iPod lines since then, it's a wonder that there is as much as 30% growth compared to the same quarter last year. There is also the argument that the market is saturated, but I know that I'll need to buy a new MP3 player when my iPod dies after it goes out of AppleCare coverage next February. As long as Apple update the various iPod lines in some way this autumn - price drops might be more likely than new features - Apple should see growth this quarter.

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[frizzantik]

Suprised this wasn't modded "funny".. and if it is true, it really speaks to the craptacity of most music for sale if it's purchased (or otherwise obtained) by consumers who aren't even interested in listening to it as much as using it to provide background noise.

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[Registered Coward v2]

An iPod and a PSP? Why not just the PSP? It plays music too, Sure it can't hold your entire library but does it need to?

A couple of reasons:

The iPod is smaller and easier to use if all I want is music.

I like to listen to a variety of music and don't want to buy a 4 gig card just yet; so the iPod's capacity is nice. If 1 gig wad enough I'd just use my Treo.

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[jskiff]

AAC, the default ripping format for iTunes, is on its own not a DRM format. AAC with FairPlay, which is what you purchase from the iTunes Music Store, is DRM'd.

don't underestimate WinCE- it isn't all that bad

[RevAaron]

Just a note- don't underestimate the power of WinCE. It is a pretty decent OS, and with the state of the available software, I'd rather run WinCE than Linux on a PDA. Pocket PC 200x/Windows Mobile 2003 or 5.0 are a little less useful than full-blown WinCE.NET 4.2/5.0. The reason for this is the software available- for me, one of the big things is the availability of input methods- if I had to choose just one, I'd much rather have the real HWR of CalliGrapher/Transcriber than the not-too-great thumboard on any of the Linux-based Zaurii.

I'm not saying that it couldn't change, but as a hacker, I was able to get more done on a WinCE handheld- either a PocketPC type device, or preferably a handheld PC like the Jornada 720 or the Sigmarion 3- with a bunch of Unix tools than on the various PDAs running Linux that I've had (3 different Zaurii [Sl-5500, SL-C760 and SL-C1000], VTech Helio, iPAQ 3650, Jornada 720 [well, that one was a BSD]). It is no slander against Linux- if the software was as good, I would rather run Linux. I was able to write useful, end-user useful PDA-style apps with native widgets far easier on WinCE than on Linux- I had Perl/Tk, Python w/ Tkinter or w32api, Pocket Scheme, Dialect, NSBasic and others. I did a lot of my development on the PDA itself- for me, a PDA is way more powerful if I can use Perl/Tk to whip up a weird little app in 10 minutes than having to go back to my Linux machine later and write an app for Qtopia in C++- a task which would likely take hours, and not 10-30 minutes like the Perl, Dialect or Squeak app.

Mind you, someone who is willing to put in the work to do a port that works of various libraries or languages that they need might be fine. For me, porting and rewriting C/C++ code isn't my forté or preferred way of spending my free time. There are a lot of ported Linux/Unix tools and languages available for WinCE.

I'm not saying that my way of doing things is for everyone- if you prefer the added overhead of doing PDA development on the desktop, that is fine- but for me, on-board development is a must. There are ports of Python, perl, etc for the Zaurus- but last time I checked there wasn't a way to write Qtopia apps using them, though that might have changed recently. And even all the dev tools finally made it to Linux PDAs, the other software and PDA-ish features would still be lacking.

People tend to write WinCE off completely- dismissing it as nothing but a bad MS kludge, a "shrunken Win95," or something of the sort. But it is actually a very capable, useful OS. And this is as a Linux and OS X user- I don't have a Windows machine, and I don't use ActiveSync, etc- and I don't need them to use a WinCE or PocketPC/WM device to its fullest.

Though, if Apple did bring back a PDA, I'd pray to any and all gods that'd listen for a Newton OS. Newton OS > WinCE > PocketPC/WM > Linux > Palm OS in the heirarchy of PDA OS usefulness for hackers. :D

It's the accessories.

[argent]

It appears to be based on real world testing and not some crappy faux retro Hi-Fi panel designed by software engineers in a vacuum.

That's why the iPod interface is all but useless for adjusting by feel, and has to be locked when it's in your pocket becase just brushing it is enough to make it respond.

I gave my iPod Mini to my daughter and got the iPod Shuffle with its conventional d-Pad interface that's actually got signs of having been designed for *use* rather than *looks*.

No, what made me get an iPod at all instead of something else is that I can actually get accessories for it. And I expect I'll be able to get accessories for it in a year, and if I get a different iPod in a year the accessories I got now will still work.

I've got boxes of accessories that I'll never be able to use because nobody's every going to make a PDA compatible with the 1st generation iPaq, the Jornada, or the Visor, ever again. My old Nokia accessories don't work with my new Nokia phone. The charging cable for my old CLie doesn't work on my new one. But I can get an iPod now that will work with this docking cable from three years ago.

iTunes software is the problem...

[rtechie]

The major problem I've experienced and heard from others regarding iPods wasn't the iPod itself, but the annoying iTunes software. At least on Windows (and it's my understanding that 80%+ of iPod owners have Windows). The interface clashes with Windows and uses this annoying check-in/check-out interface that makes it near impossible to actually MOVE music around. And while techincally there is USB Mass Storage support iTunes sees fit to mangle the directory structure and filenames of anything you put on there, presumably to make it as useless as possible, and of course the files aren't playable until you "check them in" on iTunes which mangles them. The whole thing feels like proprietary bullshit on Windows and certainly isn't easy to use relative to 99% of other players which have USB Mass Storage support. IOW, "installing" the player simply adds a drive letter in Explorer and you drag and drop music files. This is even how DRM music works if you have WMP10 installed. No drivers, no installers, nothing.

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[Achromatic1978]

I think it's illegal in 32 states /not/ to own an iPod...

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[m26k9]

iPod was just a big hype.. that was all.. and now its gone... Was like a blonde's fashion accessary...

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[Zooka]

''To get something that sounds as good as an 160 AAC you need to have MP3 encode at 192 or higher.''

I think, respectfully, that your opinion is somehow skewed. I've seen a couple published blind abx tests * of various formats at 128 Kbps. iTunes AAC was rated equal to LAME MP3 (and Ogg Vorbis too). At higher bitrates, it's even more clear that AAC has no advantage because almost nobody can distinguish 160 or 192 Kbps files created by a decent encoder against the original CD. Especially on a device like an iPod.

* http://www.rjamorim.com/test/multiformat128/result s.html
* http://www.maresweb.de/listening-tests/mf-128-1/re sults.htm

If you want to refute my opinion, please, show me a published test that has some real statistical significance. Not just unprovable claims.

For the truths about audio encoding, see www.Hydrogenaudio.org

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[gameforge]

I think you misunderstood. The parent said that at some given bitrate, AAC beat MP3 in terms of sound quality. And my point is that the Q factor has the ability to make MP3's sound better or worse at any given bitrate without changing the file size.

Therefore, if you have a low-Q MP3 @ 160kbps and you compare it to a 160Kbps AAC file, it will most likely sound worse (the AAC file will sound better). At the same time, an MP3 recorded @ 160Kbps, while similar in file size to its low Q cousin, will sound better when encoded with a higher Q factor.

The point is, if you have two 160Kbps MP3's of the same song which are very close in file size, one may sound watery and one may sound crystal clear, given the same source media (CD, for example). Saying that a 160Kbps MP3 sounds worse than an AAC file of equivelant bitrate alone is a naive statement.

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[localman]

The majority of iPod users use MP3s, which aren't affected by DRM

I don't have any numbers, but I remember that a couple years ago I'd complain about DRM to non-techie friends and they wouldn't really get what the big deal was. Now I regularly have my non-techie friends ask my why they can't share songs from ITunes with friends and why they can't play them in different programs or devices. And they start getting annoyed and bitter about it. So, it seems to me that there is some growth in DRM annoyance that will eventually bite Apple here.

Cheers.

Sell AAPL ? Layoffs and Outsourcing....

[Anonymous Coward]

I am glad ipod sales are falling. It's the same company which wanted to build another campus in Cupertino. Lets see how it will now. This Holiday season Microsoft will Kill Apple's dream and I will be glad to see their CEO announce layoffs and falling stock will make him lose control like any other CEO. Hopefully, he will outsource lot more than he did to China :)

I would recommend to partially unload AAPL stock. No Love and affection, just PROFITS!!!

You are still contributing to RIAA

[iamacat]

By buying used CDs, you are effectively lowering the cost for the original owner to buy the music in the first place and enabling him/her to buy newer music with the proceeds. The only legal way to "stick it" to RIAA is to listen to independent music. Or do something which is still free instead. Take a walk or something.

this is easy to figure out

[Anonymous Coward]

um of course sales are going to drop, you dont have to re-buy an iPod. i mean yes it could break or someone could want to upgrade but those 14 million people that bought them around christmas last year arent going to all go out and buy another one the next year.

Re:Not just DRM but client fatigue. Free is better

[Anonymous Coward]

In your excitement to declare the king is dead you should be more careful about your accuracy

HELL NO, s/he shouldn't. Where you think you are? Look up the URL. Duh.

iPod needs more features

[nigham]

I needed a new audio player, and last week I went and bought an iRiver H10 Jr. I checked out the iPod Nano but I didn't like it - for the same price, I can radio, voice-recording, OGG playback, and text-file viewing. I know iPod is supposed to be the "cool" thing to buy, but sometimes people just want features, you know?

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[Anonymous Coward]

I'd be careful about slinging around baseless accusations like that, Nick, when you yourself are on the record expressing something between sympathy and outright allegiance to homophobic, xenophobic, and frankly racist right-wing extremist viewpoints right here on Slashdot. Given that, it only stands to reason that you'd lack even the trifling bit of aesthetic sensitivity it would take to recognize Apple's accomplishments in design and user experience. NASCAR country, it turns out, is not amenable to the development of such instincts.
--
Sick of pompous windbags? Change "Karma Bonus" modifier to -1 penalty.

Mostly right

[bill_mcgonigle]

People don't buy music to listen to it.

Well, sometimes we do, but we buy on CD to do so, so it's hardly relative to the discussion. Yes, I've sat in the dark listening to 'A Silent Way' on both CD and iPod/iTMS/AAC plugged into the same stereo and there's a big difference. Same for Indian Classical. I also enjoy the occasional Riddlin Kids and you can't tell the difference.

Re:Not just DRM but client fatigue. Free is better

[toddestan]

Apple could always license WMA from Microsoft, and make the iPod compatible with all those other services. I don't think it would ever happen, but there really isn't anything preventing it, other than Apple simply not wanting to do so.

The price of offering shortcuts.

[Marthirial]

Apple applied the same principle for their computers into the Ipod: Easier is better, easier is more expensive. Then, they created a device that anyone could own and play music without physical media, only files.

Sounds beautiful and for a while it worked, many were drawn into the PMP universe and as any other unknown territory, they let Apple take care of them: Just pay there, plug here, listen, repeat.

Nobody bought an Ipod to save on personal entertainment, it was the design, the looks, the software, the quality, but the prime on the price always was accepted, after all, wouldn't making all these so accessible and pretty cost a lot of money?

Three years later, turns out, the magic is going away, because after all, economics will always win at the end of the day, defeating aesthetics, fads, trends and loyalties.

Now, the market offers alternative devices, smaller, prettier, more efficient and above all, cheaper.

The same naïve buyer paying a premium to get a buy-plug-play player now sees that there are alternatives. It has learned that there are better/faster/easier ways to get DRM-free music. Ipod pushed the "Do it easier" too far this time and now, they are seeing that there is more to it. It works if what you will do easier doesn't become dull or ineffective.

The real question here is this: Can Apple bring something new (besides more HD space, bigger screens) that again, challenges the current way to do things and overcomes its cumbersome procedures successfully enough to justify its higher price?

Music player + telephone = Done
Music player + video player = done
WiFi music Player = Almost done (Zune)

On Demand Digital Content - That's it, you may have the chance, ipod.

Re:It's about materials.

[supasam]

Actually, the point being, if you carry something around with you, it's going to get scratched. If you put it in a case, the case will get scratched instead. If you make it out of diamond and keep it in a velvet case, sure it wont get scratched, but you have fun doing that. For me, I'm satisfied with the knowledge that my stuff is naturally going to wear and so I take steps to protect it. I just don't understand why people think that apple has to make stuff out of magical material that doesn't wear for some people to be happy.

WMA (and quarter to quarter sales)

[hotsauce]

iTunes automatically converts WMA files (not DRM WMAs) to mp3s, to transfer to the iPod.

If iTMS stumbles (and this article claims it is the iPod stumbling, not iTMS), Apple simply has to license DRM WMA. But it does not seem iTMS is stumbling, far from it.

The article does not address the sales of other mp3 players, but suggests phones are killing the entire dedicated market (they give no numbers for this, either, and certainly my experience does not bear out millions of people currently using their phones as mp3 players).

Since beyond the drop in iPod sales the article is largely speculation, I think I can provide more intelligent speculation: the iPod was the hottest Christmas item, and like all hot Christmas items, it experienced a steep drop in sales after the buying season. By becoming a hot Christmas item, that quarter became abnormal.

I think a more accurate measure would be sales with Christmas excluded, or quarter to same last year. Unfortunately, the article doesn't provide that, either. A little disappointing for The Guardian.

iPod Phone

[seadoo2006]

I will probably get flamed for this, but why is everyone waiting and waiting and waiting for the iPod phone. Hate to break it to you, but I really do not see the iPod phone happening anytime soon, especially with Motorola's (crap) MP3 phones. I know this may seem like an insane idea to all the anti-Sony people out there, but why not purchase a Sony Ericsson W810i Quad Band cell phone. It was everything I was looking for in a cell phone: ~First and foremost, its a GSM quad-band 850/900/1800/1900 cell phone. It gets amazing quality calls and has amazing reception with T-Mobile. ~Second, an MP3 player - the SE W810i has an amazing MP3 player with a superb equalizer (that actually does something versus the iPod one that doesn't) The retail version comes with a 512MB Memory Stick Pro Duo (same used in the PSP). I then went to eBay and got a 4GB version for $70, shipped. This gives me the availability of keeping enough music to satisfy me. ~Third, it has a built-in 2 megapixel camera capable of 1632x1224 pictures. It also takes decent video. You can load your own MP4 files on the phone as well to watch. This isnt an advertisment for this phone, I am just trying to tell people there are better options than a ROKR/SLVR from Motorola. Plus, this phone was designed (this the Walkman branding) around music. The stock earphones are in-canal phones that are loud, clear and give GREAT bass response. The best part of all of this is that with a new subscription from T-Mobile, the phone is only $150 through JandR.com http://www.jr.com/JRProductPage.process?Product=41 28735 This is truly one of the finest phones out there and it more than enough to satisfy most music junkies. When I need the storage capacity, I have my Creative Nomad Zen Xtra that uses a standard laptop 2.5" HDD. I swapped out the stock 30GB for a 100GB and it works perfectly. I have found iPods are unreliable, fragile, and expensive compared to the rest of the industry. I dont need to pay $400 for a 60GB iPod.

Re:iPod Phone

[freedom_india]

You don't get it; do you? RAZR and iPod are not bought in large quantities because they are functionally excellent, they are bought because they are sleek, nice, small, lightweight and much easier to use than a Sony Ericcson with its tabbed menus.

RAZR folds into a much smaller phone, is ultra-thin and lightweight. I can even use a standard USB cable to charge it or upload photos.

I had a Ericcson R320s crap earlier 4 years ago and i found its battery life needing a charge every 6 hours.

Ericsson used to make crap phones, and with Sony, they make it crappier still.

Creative Zen may be functionally good, but its ugly and makes you into a Geek. That's why only people like you buy it-:))

Miles Davis

[patiodragon]

"Yes, I've sat in the dark listening to 'A Silent Way'..."

Are you turning people on to IN A Silent Way?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/In_a_Silent_Way

Re:It's about materials.

[Ullteppe]

I'm not saying it shouldn't wear. I'm saying that the iPods are made of a much softer plastic than most other gadgets. The screen is an especially problematic area, as if this gets too scratched, then obviously it will have more than cosmetic consequences. Again, for example cell phone manufacturers generally use a higher quality plastic, especially for the screen.

There are solutions to this. I used to have a problem with my eyeglass lenses being scratched (I have always used plastic lenses to keep the weight down). Last time I ordered "everything" and got lenses coated with anti-scratch material. It works, I don't have a single scratch on the eyeglass lenses I've now used for three years. Reportedly, Nokia is using the same material to cover some of their high-end phones.

Let me state my position again: Apple have used a much too soft plastic resin on latter-day iPods, and other manufacturers have done a better job. Making sure a device lasts more than a few weeks without being scratched to hell under normal use is part of good design. BTW, I'm pretty sure a real diamond won't get scratched; what the hell would you scratch it with? (Another diamond?)

jog and pr0n...

[elmurado]

I can do both at once...I often get arrested however, so do not recommend this as a way to burn calories...

Especially on a device like the iPod??

[Khyber]

I think you mean the crap earbuds that Apple ships with it's iPod are the cause of users not being able to tell the difference. I've got a pair of Grado headphones hooked up to my iPod - I can hear the artifacting clearer than daylight.

Re:Especially on a device like the iPod??

[ObiWanKenblowme]

You can hear daylight!? Wow, you really do have sensitive hearing!

Re:Especially on a device like the iPod??

[Khyber]

You must not have the taught ability to infer words from the conversation of others, or you were taught differently. Think about what I say, please - thinking is a critical skill that will save you more than your job. The omission of words is not an omission of information to the informed.

Re:Especially on a device like the iPod??

[ObiWanKenblowme]

I stand corrected: if your hearing had actually been that sensitive, you would've heard the sound of my little joke flying over your head. Vagaries of language what they are, your meaning was still clear enough, although for future reference "clear as a pin drop" would probably have been a better phrase to use when describing sound. "Clear as day[light]" typically implies vision. Let's not confuse humor with a lack of critical thinking, nor confused speech with deep thought.

Re:It's about materials.

[supasam]

Yeah, you use other diamonds. Also, depending on the structure of the thing your scratching with, you could use a material with less hardness, you know, on the hardness scale.

Also, anyways, don't you think it's a bit of a nit picky thing to point out the chemical makeup of a particular device's case? I mean, I'm surely wearing through the paint on the case of my nokia, but I don't go around saying "Sheesh! You'd think they would powder coat these plastic cases instead of just painting them." (Or what ever process they use.) Take, for instance, this rolex that I have here. (Yeah, I wish!) Sure, it's got a sit load of shiny glass crystal on the outside. And I am going to scratch it, cause I can't very well wear it around if it's in it's case all day long, eh? But it's fine, cause I know that I can go to the jeweler and get him to fix the thing for me (for a good chunk of change) and my flash rolex is good as new, right? Well, does the fact that the rolex scratches mean that there's a design flaw, or does it simply mean I'm going to pay if I'm not careful? Eh?

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[Anonymous Coward]

But the key for this use is the convergence. For most people, a phone that does only 80-90% of a dedicated device is a lot preferable to actually having a second, dedicated device to carry around on the way to work.

And yet I see an awful lot of people on the subway who have both an iPod and a cellphone.

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[Belgand]

While I don't disagree that a number of people have been swayed into the cheap, easy route of using iTunes to rip for them I doubt the preferences are considered scary. Frankly, I've always been disturbed that iTunes has so few preferences. Then again, I got in with the 2nd generation iPod where the included Windows software was MusicMatch Jukebox, which practically nobody used, so I used ephPod.

Frankly, the very idea of ripping a CD using some sort of built-in system that doesn't even use the term "rip" rather bothers me. I don't even know what encoder the damn thing is using. That's why all of my mp3s are ripped properly with Exact Audio Copy. Honestly, it doesn't really require much more effort once you get past the intial setup (and even then it's usually pretty simple if you just go with defaults).

As for AAC being better than MP3, while I haven't heard much on the subject (and due to DRM I honestly can't say I'm curious) neither is as good as FLAC, yet you don't see anyone jumping over to use it.

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[nwbvt]

Right, and I'm sure you have references from when I have made statements against homosexuals, foreigners, or people of other races (I have a reference from you getting mad when I made fun of white-supremists, I just don't feel like digging it up as it was two fucking years ago).

Look, if I go out of my way and post this without a karma bonus, will you please go away and get a life? I'm sorry if I hurt your feelings way back when I made fun of you, I didn't really think anyone took a fucking Internet community that seriously. Get a girlfriend, get laid (prostitutes don't count), maybe even get a job and move out of your parent's basement. I mean really, you were funny a while ago, how someone could be so obsessed about the rating system on /. that they would track and follow someone just because they disagreed with their rating. It was pathetic to the point of comedy. But to be honest, its gotten old and I'm actually starting to feel sorry for you. Please, do something useful with your life. And if you really don't want me to be rated so high, either follow your own advice and change your preferences (thats why they can be changed) or get an account, get your karma up, and moderate yourself. Of course that would require you post something other than "I hate nwbvt", "anyone who lives in the south is a racist", "macs are so pretty, anyone who disagrees with my subjective view on aesthetics must be a pompous windbag", or you will go down as a troll faster than the guys who post nothing but links to male porn...

Re:Not just DRM but client fatigue. Free is better

[TempeTerra]

... or everyone would just go back to buying CDs and ripping them - like they do right now in all the territories where iPods are available but ITMS isn't.

Re:Not just DRM but client fatigue. Free is better

[jcr]

This is a huge disadvantage as every non-iTunes Music Store web site selling music uses WMA.

Oh, get serious. All the also-rans use WMA, and all together they amount to squat.

-jcr

Article: 2 quarter down after 17 up

[AHumbleOpinion]

I think a more accurate measure would be sales with Christmas excluded, or quarter to same last year. Unfortunately, the article doesn't provide that, either. A little disappointing for The Guardian.

The article did use a very useful metric: "Tomi Ahonen, a technology brand expert and author, said: 'For the first time the iPod has had two consecutive falls after 17 quarters of growth." And it does answer your question, in the same quarter last year it had experienced some growth rather than two downward quarters.

Re:Article: 2 quarter down after 17 up

[MKalus]

Yeah,

but one thing is overlooked: Apple hasn't really updated the iPod since back before Christmas, meaning that there was no reason for people to go out and buy a new one.

If Apple does manage to release a "real" iPod Video things may pick up once again.

Re:Article: 2 quarter down after 17 up

[julesh]

The question is, though, how did those quarters compare to the quarters one year before each of them? This might be a seasonal variation that's just becoming obvious because growth is slowing.

You'd be able to see whether that was the case or not if they'd provided a graph, but they didn't.

Product maturity

[kitzilla]

It's called "product maturity." The solution is a relaunch ... such as the rumored video pods and iPhones.

So no surprise here. Move along to the next story.

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[msormune]

Yes, they have no easy way to do that and no legal way either. They can huff and puff your brick house all day along, but they have no case against you, provided that you have not shared your music. Sure, they can try to scare you, but that't just normal big company tactics anyway. DRM has actually nothing to do with this for me; i personally always buy CDs, because at least here in Europe, virtually no cd has a copy protection at the moment.

Now I would use iTunes since I own a iPod Nano anyway, but it makes no sense to me: If I buy a song at home, why can't I download the same song at work from iTunes for free? This would make sense to me, because the song is clearly tied to a user account, and not to a physical machine... so I just buy the round thingies with nice rainbow colors.

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[julesh]

I use the Osaka subway and local train system to get to work, and the single most common thing people are doing is to use their mobile phones to email, to play games, to listen to music or speech books and to surf the net (the second most common is read a book or comic, with portable games and mp3 players a distant third).

Really? On the occasions I commute to work by train (typically to London, but it depends where the client wants me) most people I see are actually working: they're reading reports, word processing stuff on laptops, talking to colleagues... perhaps its just a cultural difference?

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[julesh]

Indeed, if you aren't using iTMS, iTunes is a pile of shit that gets in the way when you're trying to do common operations (like put a load of MP3 files onto your device... how hard is that? Well, you have to create a new playlist, import the MP3 files onto the playlist, and then copy the playlist onto the device... why can't I just put them on directly? Who knows?!).

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[slack_prad]

it segfaults, duh!

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[julesh]

DRM-fatigue, finally, sets in (it's about time!).

I suspect the issue of non-replaceable batteries is more important to *most* consumers.

Combine that with DRM meaning they realise their only options are to by another iPod (at inflated prices compared to the competition: compare the iPod Nano 4GB at £113 to the Zen Microphoto 8GB at £60... I know which I'd rather buy) or replace all the music they've bought in the last two years, and you can bet they're telling all their friends *not* to buy an iPod.

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[ArtStone]

or if he knew how to manipulate the stack pointers!

IPOD is a PDA for Music

[Dr. Dysphora]

Gawd, what a civilization. PDAs all went in the dumper as people saw that they don't need to store thousands of factoids. "Need", in the modern technological world, is manufactured. I can program Perl and C fast as a banshee and I still keep phone numbers on pieces of paper and have yet to lose a number of real interest in my ENTIRE LIFE. The founders of cybernetics are rolling over in their graves seeing this stupid profusion of consumer electronics while industrial automation sucks. I'm an avid classical music listener and have no interest or "need" for an IPod. Why?? Because I don't need room for a thousand CDs worth of music and if I put a thousand CDs worth of music on an IPod I would do the same as I do with my CDs ... play the same damned ten or twelve over and over again. Also, isn't music listening often a communal thing you want to share ... like on a conventional stereo in your living room with friends present?? I know, it's an outdated notion and you geeks think that a world with no human interaction at all, the Wired view of life, is to be aspired after.

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[JanneM]

Really? On the occasions I commute to work by train (typically to London, but it depends where the client wants me) most people I see are actually working: they're reading reports, word processing stuff on laptops, talking to colleagues... perhaps its just a cultural difference?

Interesting. You do see people studying on the train (I use my time that way) but work is rare. I'm not sure why there's a difference, though I can hazard a couple of guesses.

One factor is that especially in the morning you're not likely to have a seat, and even if you do you'll be sitting very cramped. Bringing out a laptop or a file folder just isn't doable. A small book or a mobile phone is fine on the other hand. And you usually don't talk to other people - again because it's cramped and you'd end up speaking in the ear of someone you don't know. And you'd be pretty lucky to happen on a colleague on the same train anyway, since people live all over the place and the trains are very frequent.

At night, and especially if you aren't riding in the center of the city (like between Namba and Umeda), you'll have more room, and you do see people (especially students of course) studying or reviewing. People are also talking more to each other - you have groups of workers going to or from some waterhole and they can get quite noisy. If you're going out with your colleagues (and many do a couple of times a week at least), you're not going to do work.

But mostly I think it is because there is still very much a culture here of being _seen_ working at the office. If you're working on the train, you're not seen working; you won't be able to get home any earlier for that. So the train ride for many becomes a bit of "alone-time" where you sleep, read, surf the net, email friends and so on, and incidentally create a buffer between your work and your home life.

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[Anonymous Coward]

The main reason I haven't bought an iPod yet is purely the battery life. My current portable music solution is a mini-disk player that I've had for 4 years now. It's on its last legs admittedly but I get over 50 hours playback from a single AA battery, and I can easily carry a spare battery around with me in case it runs out of juice. Battery life is a major factor for me in choosing an mp3 player - if an iPod could even offer a realistic 20 hours on one charge, I'd consider it, but as it stands, I'll be going with Samsung or SANdisk...

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[Bombula]

There doesn't seem so much of a crack in any edifice as much as there's ultimately a saturation of the marketplace. At some point, pretty much everyone who wants an iPod gets one, and by now that's pretty much done (anyone hear any recent "I want an iPod" whines from anyone?).

You mean there's a finite market for any given electronic device? No way...

Seriously, you nailed it with this single paragraph. That's it, end of story. Move along. Move along.

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[iainl]

Both mp3 and aac are far, far better than flac for getting a decent amount of music that sounds "good enough" over an iPod in a given amount of space, however.

Flac is lovely (and if you insist on lossless then Apple have their own codec that the iPod will play) but you're not going to get your 500 songs on a 2Gb device with it.

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[LordSnooty]

Perhaps there's more room to spread out and more time to use on a train? OP referred to the subway - I doubt you'd get much work done on the Tube. But you could happily sit and watch 'The Charlotte Church Show', if you were mad.

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[Anonymous Coward]

Digging that smooth jazz, huh?

Re:Blah, why is it always a "512 MB - 1 GB" range.

[hairyfeet]

If you are looking for something in that range,Here you go-http://www.amazon.com/SanDisk-Sansa-M260-Player -Blue/dp/B000EIHG96 And here is the 2GB-http://dealnews.com/deals/San-Disk-Sansa-M250- 2-GB-MP3-Player-with-FM-for-95-shipped/131211.html

I bought the 1GB about a year ago(all I could afford and turned out to be plenty for me) and I love it.No hassle,runs 17Hr on a single aaa which means if it goes dead just stop at a convenience store,no waiting to recharge,radio picks up well and has plenty of presets,good eq(including manual,no being stuck with preset eq) and it even does a decent job of recording lectures.IMHO For the price they're sweet.

Poor Support Outside the US and Poor Batteries ?

[dapprman]

Perhaps people are starting to get fed up with having to replace their iPods every few years due to their batteries dying. I've a reasonable number of friends who've bought iPods over the years, lauding them over my Creative Zen, yet now all of them are having to use them plugged in to a power supply or are looking to replace them because the internal battery has died. Ok after 4+ years of moderate use the battery is now going on my Zen, but hey I still get 8 hours from one charge.

Another thing is Apple's support. Yes in the US they would replace the internal batteries for free or low cost, but not outside, well certainly not in the UK.

The iPod has been one of The fashion statement accessories of the late 1990s, and has without doubt been a tremendous sucess, yet perhaps now the reality of these little devices is starting to hit home and consumers are starting to get more fussy, especially as there is now so much choice in the market place.

Re:that's because they are addicted to entertainme

[Anonymous Coward]

bread and circuses junkies. The bulk of them can rattle off a list of some popular tatooed and pierced or cowboy hatted "entertainers", or all their sports gods stats, yet have no clue and can't even name their senators and house rep, let alone know how they stand on issues. I mean, shee-it, most people in the USA stil think we invaded iraq as payback for saddam attacking NYC. I mean, ignornat stupid mouth breathers.. They have no idea what is going on in real life other than they need to be entertained.

Americans aren't as stupid as you make them out to be. Recent polls show that the American people have stopped buying into the crap and utter nonsense floated by the Bush Administration:

However, just 37% of respondents in the poll agreed that Saddam was connected to the attacks and that the Iraq War was justified as retribution for his involvement, while 48% believed that there is no connection between Saddam and 9/11 and the Iraq War has diverted America's attention from the War on Terror.

Given all of the bogus information put out there by the Bush Administraton and given the way the media lapped it up prior to and after our invasion of Iraq, I'm not at all surprised that 37% of the American people believe there was some kind of connection between Saddam and 9/11. Hell according to other polls 36% of Americans believe that the federal goverment either had a hand in 9/11 or knew about it and did nothing to stop it so we could go to war in the Middle East.

Proof positive that those to the far left are just as ignorant and uninformed as those on the far right.

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[jridley]

Really? Because I don't think I've ever even seen an AAC file. Of course, of all the MP3 players (including my Palm Tungsten) I have, none are iPods, so I haven't been LOOKING for AACs, but still, I've never noticed one.

I guess the huge volume on usenet and torrent MP3 sites must be because nobody's trading MP3s anymore.

iPod Sales Numbers

[MCSEBear]

You've seen the bullshit FUD, now lets look at the actual sales numbers.

Q4 03: 336,000
Q1 04: 733,000 (holiday quarter)
Q2 04: 807,000
Q3 04: 860,000
Q4 04: 2,016,000
Q1 05: 4,580,000 (holiday quarter)
Q2 05: 5,311,000
Q3 05: 6,155,000
Q4 05: 6,451,000
Q1 06: 14,043,000 (holiday quarter)
Q2 06: 8,526,000
Q3 06: 8,111,000

Where is the drop they are talking about? Q3 of 2006 saw a 2 million unit rise over Q3 of 2005. If that's a horrible drop in sales, than every company will be wanting one. Every single quarter a version of the iPod has been on the market has shown higher sales than that same quarter in the previous year.

The very slight drop in units sold from the second quarter of 2006 versus the third quarter of 2006 is easily explained by people knowing the iPod is due for a product refresh and holding off on their purchase.

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[conigs]

... perhaps its just a cultural difference?

Understatement of the day. (No offence intended.)

ha

[Anonymous Coward]

everybody already has an ipod... duh

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[conigs]

Are you using a Motorola phone? If so, I seriously hope you're not referring to a seem edit as "hacking the firmware."

If not a Motorola, what brand are you using and what do you use to modify the firmware?

Two words: Bob Dylan

[Anonymous Coward]

That'll make *any* product lose its coolness factor. Who's next on the iPod ad carousel, Elton John?

Re:Not just DRM but client fatigue. Free is better

[Anonymous Coward]

But not WMA or DRM protected WMA files. This is a huge disadvantage as every non-iTunes Music Store web site selling music uses WMA.

Hummm, whats the #2 store? eMusic. What format do they use? MP3 with out DRM. Uh, ok, whatever you say.

You would have been correct about subscription services, but that seems to be a niche product.

Re:that's because they are addicted to entertainme

[notneverwired]

someone mod crazy parent up!

Bubble? What bubble?

[edunbar93]

The iPod is a product, not a market or a company. And every product goes through this sort of cycle where it is launched, gains popularity, peaks, and loses popularity. The market gets saturated eventually when *everyone* has your product. And the iPod isn't disposable, like say Saran Wrap, so it's not like people just keep buying it again and again. For a company to be successful, it has to keep coming up with good ideas.

"Religious" approach to OS/iPod can blind ...

[AHumbleOpinion]

The truth about being non-religious about an OS is that I use Windows, MacOS X, Linux, and OpenBSD when and where I feel appropriate. I don't hate or love any of the above, they have strengths and weaknesses and are individually better suited for different tasks.

Regarding non-religious about the iPod, I love my iPod and would buy another as a replacement today but I have zero brand loyalty. If and when a better device appears I would choose that as a replacement. That has been my position since I bought my iPod years ago, I ripped everthing using MP3 rather than the default AAC due to this.

Some, not all, definitely have an emotional thing for/against Apple, emotional or political thing for/against Mac OS X, Linux, etc. I do not, and some who disagree with me do not either.

Re:Video on a portable device

[gwhenning]

Actually if you travel at all, the video ipod can be a lifesaver. While I don't like watching the video on a small screen, bringing an ipod and the video out cable doesn't take that much more room in my luggage and when I get to the hotel I get to watch the movies on my ipod instead of hoping that there's something good on TV. This is especially useful as Apple has been loading up the amount of content available on iTunes. (Can you say Mythbuster's? Eureka? Psych?) Also, Apple has been offering a lot of the season premiers as freebies so you can test drive the new shows at your leisure.

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[Mattintosh]

if you insist on lossless then Apple have their own codec

Apple didn't invent AIFF. EA did. Then Microsoft "embraced" it and made WAVE. There are various compression algorithms (all lossless) that work with AIFF (AIFC, really), and Apple Lossless is just one of them. The best of the bunch is Intel 10:1, but that's only available if you buy a Quicktime license, AFAIK. IMA 8:1 is a close second, and can be found in the free version of Quicktime (but you have to dig for it). Apple's offering is pathetic in comparison to either of these, and I would bet FLAC is too.

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[LordRobin]

(like put a load of MP3 files onto your device... how hard is that? Well, you have to create a new playlist, import the MP3 files onto the playlist, and then copy the playlist onto the device... why can't I just put them on directly? Who knows?!)

What the hell are you talking about? To copy songs to your iPod, you highlight them in your iTunes library and drag them to your iPod. One step, done.

As a general rule nothing is difficult with Apple software. If you're finding something difficult, you're either "overthinking" it, or you want to do complicated nerd stuff, like refusing to let the iTunes library database keep track of your music files (which can be anywhere on any number of hard drives, BTW).

------RM

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[iainl]

Hmm, I always get confused with this one. By "Codec" I merely meant Apple Lossless. Which is your only option if you want lossless compression on a iPod.

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[PaneerParantha]

I commute on the GO train (gotransit.com) from Mississauga to Toronto in Ontario, Canada.

I see people reading, working, watching videos(on their laptops), listening to music, conversing, staring at the scenery rolling by or trying to steal a glance at some pretty woman.

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[TedTodorov]

As for AAC being better than MP3, while I haven't heard much on the subject (and due to DRM I honestly can't say I'm curious) neither is as good as FLAC, yet you don't see anyone jumping over to use it.

For the 1001st time: AAC encoding in iTunes is NOT DRMed -- it is every bit as free as MP3. Only files bought from the iTunes Music Store have DRM -- you can't rip CDs to a DRMed format in iTunes even if you wanted to. And yes at, the same bit rate AAC sounds better than MP3.

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[nasch]

Indeed, if you aren't using iTMS, iTunes is a pile of shit that gets in the way when you're trying to do common operations

I use iTunes because several other people at my office use it, and I can expand my available music to listen to a work tenfold. If it were not for that I probably wouldn't use it (I don't have an iPod and never use iTMS), but it does have non-iTMS uses.

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[colingj]

Is part of the issue here that the iPod, from its first release, has been pretty much a "mature" technology? People used to rush to replace PCs on a rapid cycle because there was a lot more they could do with them: early personal computers (in the generic sense) were very limited is capabilities. Similiarly with mobile phones - early phones were large "bricks" and so the motivation to replace it a short while later was high. By contrast, even the earliest iPod essentially does all that you need it to, has a high storage capacity, a good form factor, decent battery life, good usability, et cetera. Later releases have been developments on a mature technology, rather than updates that made a barely-useable item into a more-useable item.

Re:It's about materials.

[Ullteppe]

Hmmm, as soon as anyone point out a fault in an Apple product, all the fanboys try to take you down...

Well, first off, wearing off the paint of a Nokia takes a hell of a longer time than scratching an iPod. I scratched my iPod screen badly within a couple of months of careful use, while my cellphone screen is just fine after 18 months of use... The paint is pretty good as well. Apple iPods are especially prone to scratches; this wouldn't be pointed out everywhere if it wasn't true!

As to Rolexes; all high-quality watches use high-quality sapphire glass so that the glass will not be scratched. My Swatch doesn't, and the glass is scratched to hell; that's because it is a cheap watch. I'm not complaining about scratches in the entry-level Shuffle, I'm complaining about scratches on Apple's top-of-the-line iPod. Also, the problem is bigger in the newer models (nano and video) than it was on the 4th gen models. But iPods are as expensive as cellphones, that's why it is a valid comparison.

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[Anonymous Coward]

And yes at, the same bit rate AAC sounds better than MP3. THat may have been arguable at one point, although I heard otherwise (and I doubt your reasoning goes beyond "because apple marketing said so"). But with itunes ripping AACs at a CBR, and most MP3s you find being VBR, it's definitely no longer true.

Amateur Hour

[jbelkin]

First, in the US and in Europe, you cannot really compare the "holiday" quarter with any other without a qualifier. Some retails stores do 40% of their business between November 26 and December 31. A more apt comparison are the two quarters in which 8+ million are sold - it is slightly downward trending but since the ipod hasn't really been refreshed in a year - it's actually pretty good. The more important stat is market share and Apple is essentially about 1% of where it was earlier so clearly the ENTIRE market dropped slightly after the holidays and as the economy toughtened. Now after Apple intros the new video ipods and sales are still down - then it would be bad but I think it's safe to presume there is a massive ipod buying pent up demand to own the latest big screen ipod.

as usual, the Observer then goes all wonky with their comparison - while the first two itemns are clearly fads, only a twit would call VHS a fad ... and what company in ANY line of business would not be the license holder for a product (as JVC is) that sells about 1 BILLION units. The writer is clearly clueless.

Re:It's about materials.

[supasam]

You can't come up with a good argument, so you insult me by calling me a fanboy. Well, go look for yourself how many nit pickers there are out there screaming about how badly their nano is because they didn't think to protect it. Just because I have an opposing viewpoint doesn't make me wrong, dude.

BTW, my grandfather makes his living replacing watch crystals.

Left behind?

[jotaeleemeese]

Your definition of "behind" must be a very interesting one.

There are plenty of players out there that do what the iPod does and more, from a technical point of view they are superior (easy access to songs, playlists, adecuate controls, and obvious add ons like voice recording, radio, and recording from radio).

The stroke of genius from Mr Jobs was to tie in iTunes to the iPod. Now, if you think it is to be behind the times not to accept a DMRed store as your main source of music, well, all the power to you, may you enjoy your pink Koolaid, in the mean tiem we, backwards people will drown our sorrows in emusic or similiar costumer friendly stablishments.

It flabergasts me why we are not seeing more countries questioning the legality of Apple's bussiness model. Conditional sales (to get iTunes music in a portable device you *must* buy an iPod) is ilegal in all the places I have lived (not the US, so I can't comment). I remember a couple of countries have touched some points of how the unholly duo iTunes-iPod works but nobody has addressed the forced conditionality of this (France seemed set to do it, but obvioulsy Apple have got quite good lobbyists in Paris).

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[Mattintosh]

I think we're both right. Apple Lossless is a compression codec. AIFF is the audio codec that it piggybacks on.

AIFF is actually kind of a container format. You can make raw AIFF files that just contain standard PCM audio, but you can also specify compression containers, non-PCM audio, and other fun stuff inside of it. If you use any kind of compression, you're supposed to make an AIFC (AIFF with compression) file, but most players these days don't require it and just treat every AIFF as AIFC.

I'm not sure, but I think that the iPod will play standard AIFF/AIFC files which can include any of the compression systems found in "freebie"-Quicktime, including IMA 8:1. This will reduce a 5-minute song (approximately 50MB) to 1/8th of its original size (approximately 6MB) and will be lossless and about the same size as a 320kbps MP3. All in a DRM-free, standardized, open format. (AIFF code is very easy to find, and isn't really necessary anymore since everyone has working implementations. It's about as "proprietary" as the FAT file system.)

Children, not even these, are idiots.

[jotaeleemeese]

But they don't understand the value of money, this understanding comes with having to pay your own bills, and for some not even then (but I digress :-) ).

Children in consummerist societies (and maybe in all societies) are easily influenced by fashion. IN rich countries like the US and others where talking about iPods is a leisure activity (I am telling you, in ZImbabwe, East TImor or Haiti they could not care less) this manifests in expensive clothes and gadgetry (shoes, clothes, game consoles, music gadgets).

I am amazed that there is somebody that has not realized all children, if possible, will drool after expensive gadgetry, it is an status symbol, mightly important in you teens.

As for valuing the drivel on the radio, well, that is your personal opinion. I am sure that what you heard when you were in your teens would have been derided as drivel by you elders, so making such a comment says more about you and your age than about the children, which in any case have the right to decide if a radio is a desirable feature or not in a portable music player, subjective musical or aesthetic judgments aside.

Re:Children, not even these, are idiots.

[NexFlamma]

As for valuing the drivel on the radio, well, that is your personal opinion. I am sure that what you heard when you were in your teens would have been derided as drivel by you elders, so making such a comment says more about you and your age than about the children, which in any case have the right to decide if a radio is a desirable feature or not in a portable music player, subjective musical or aesthetic judgments aside.

I'm 22. It really has more to do with the complete lack of artistic merit that modern pop music has. It's more inane than the music of previous generations, and instead of espousing values such as rebellion or peace and love, it espouses an illiterate, "gangsta" lifestyle that children too young and/or stupid to see through emulate out of a complete lack of other stimuli and a lack of a proper education (be it scholastic or parental) that tells them what is right and wrong.

I'd argue that it has more to do with my exposure to a wide range of music and my education than with my age, as, well, I'm still a youngster.

Also, for clarification, by "the radio", I mean modern media outlets (Myspace, MTV, radio, Hollywood movies, etc...)

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[default luser]

And yes at, the same bit rate AAC sounds better than MP3.

That's just not true anymore. See the latest Multiformat 128k Listening Tests, Itunes AAC at 128k is tied with Lame V5 (VBR with a target of 128k).

You see, most AAC and Vorbis proponents fail to notice that MANY of the same aural modeling optimizations that are integrated into modern codecs are just as easily integrated into mp3 codecs. Lame is a standing tribute to this fact, and is a clear reminder to the industry that mp3 is nowhere near dead.

It is true that by default Itunes rips to aac and Windows Media Player rips to wma, and this does make inroads for those formats. In the long run, however, this will do nothing to take down mp3.

The reason is, people who don't know much about ripping and sharing (and thus don't rip in mp3) typically don't care enough to share their music. These are the kind of people who are either too uninformed or too stupid to understand the process of ripping and sharing...all they know is if they put the CD in the system, Itunes puts it in their library. In fact, taking that "next step" to actively sharing your music is made even harder now that Apple holds your hand, because if you want to break free of the limitations imposed on you by Itunes, you have to hack the hell out of things.

In the long run, the ability to share music with reasonable quality and bitrates is what wins the format war. Since mp3 is supported by every device out there, and is recognized as the "most sharable" format by most of those who bother to share their music, it has already won.

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[Anonymous Coward]

Good effort, Nick, but not quite on target. I study you—and school you—not because I lack other activities to occupy my time, but because I find you ever so amusingly foolish in egotistical self-parody. At this point going forwards, I'd keep an eye on you even if you began exercising karmic self-restraint. We are deeply and durably entwined, you and I, and the only way out is for you to smarten up and stop condescending to your superiors. Shalom.
--
Sick of pompous windbags? Change "Karma Bonus" modifier to -1 penalty.

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[Anonymous Coward]

Apple never took my suggested ad when they released the first iPod:

"Is that 1,000 songs in your pocket, or are you just glad to see me?"

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[julesh]

What the hell are you talking about? To copy songs to your iPod, you highlight them in your iTunes library and drag them to your iPod. One step, done.

And if they aren't in your library, (e.g. because you don't use iTunes as a media player?) then you have to put them into your library first. Which is a waste of time when every other media player manager can cope with copying files directly from disk without messing around like that.

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[nwbvt]

Well, at least no one can say I didn't try to patch things up with this insignificant little troll.

Yeah, you 'school' me, and its worked really well, hasn't it? I do consider it rather ironic that you think I'm condescending. BTW, who exactly is it that you think are my 'superiors'? You? The fact that you think I'm egotistical is also ironic.

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[Anonymous Coward]

I used to rip in MP3 on GRIP as a front end to LAME. That was the first two times I ripped my CD collection, first at 128kbits, then at 192kbits. Then I bought a mac laptop. I ripped in mp3 in iTunes. I now rip in AAC in iTunes. A 3mb file in AAC sounds qualitatively better. I can't listen to mp3s encoded in under 192kbits, but get a perfectly listenable ripping job at 2/3rds the size.

Guess what? These songs play on linux. MPLAYER PLAYS AAC. Google FAAD for details. It just doesn't play protected AAC, those with the FairPlay encryption. If you don't like that, don't buy protected AAC files from the iTunes music store, or, if you do, burn them to a disk and re-rip them to MP3 or unprotected AAC.

If you really want to, you could write a five line base script to convert a directory of unprotected AAC files to MP3s, for your random MP3+WMA player, with the proviso that you'd probably end up with lesser quality mp3s than you would get if you went straight from CD.

BTW Sony "MP3" players have transcoded to ATRAC for some time (only the most recent ones play mp3 without mangling the files in the upload).

Towards the availability of everything

[Zhe Mappel]

...each new Mac Mini (now with Front Row, a remote control and TV output) has been inching closer and closer to the TV set. I suspect people will download videos via iTunes just so they can watch them on TV almost instantly, without the fuss of having to leave the house, probably ignoring whether they can watch them on their iPod or not.

Yes, and if it were able to pull off this feat with reasonable fidelity at the right price, Apple could aim to supplant Netflix.

The only two downsides to Netflix are delivery time and availability being limited to DVD pressing. If the studios will play, Apple can solve both these problems. The delivery improvement is obvious. But the real treat would be the digitization of a back catalogue that hasn't yet made the leap to DVD, along with the ultimate transformation of the DVD release into a digital release.

I don't care whether it's Apple, Amazon, Hollywood,l cable, the telcos or somebody else who solves this problem. The dream--and it shouldn't be that hard to realize--is access to every single feature film still extant, delivered promptly. What's the use of a cultural inheritance if you can't tap it when you want it?

It is better to light one candle...

[Anonymous Coward]

than to curse the darkness. Here's your candle.

Re:It's about materials.

[Ullteppe]

Well, fact is that if you bring up anything bad about Apple, you get plastered. So, I'm afraid my knee-jerk reaction after a couple of passes is to conclude that I'm up against a follower of his Steveness. You can't argue with people who say Intel sucks when Apple uses PowerPC chips, and then the next day are SO excited that Apple is embracing this revolutionary new Intel stuff...

You don't think that the fact that most other gadgets get by fine with no additional protection is a valid argument? If the screen gets plastered, it affects more than just the appearance of the thing, you know...

i think the video ipod is cool

[max1138]

but there's this show on itunes that i can't get to play. sam has 7 friends, has anyone looked at this yet? it sounds kinda cool.

Re:It's about materials.

[supasam]

As it happens I'm a linux guy. I find a device that plugs into my computer -and just works- a breath of fresh air! I don't give a shit about scratches. I just can't see how people can fuss about little things like that. Moreover, my nano is an upgrade from the shuffle. I find that using the screen is more hassle than it needs to be and so I don't even use it. Instead, I keep the thing in its case, comfortably in my pocket and control it via the radio/remote. So, take it for what you will, but I won't believe you when you whine about scratches. Go buy a sony if it means that much to you.

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[7Prime]

I was responding to legal, commercial file transfer... what are we talking about here? iTunes competing with BitTorrent? Fuck no. I could care less what people are using for illegal downloading... hell, I do it too, but from a business standpoint, there hasn't even been any proof that one market effects the other in any predictable fashion! But for commercial downloads, AAC is 85% of the market right there, and ANYONE who has iTunes is setup for AAC by default, and I'm willing to bet that a large majority of people never even touch their preferences.

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[Anonymous Coward]

Yeah, you 'school' me, and its worked really well, hasn't it?

The pupil's asslike obstinacy is no fault of mine.

BTW, who exactly is it that you think are my 'superiors'?

Almost everyone to whom you reply. The funny thing is that you're often right to correct them. It's in attitude and affability, and thus influence, that they demonstrate greater capability.
--
Sick of pompous windbags? Change "Karma Bonus" modifier to -1 penalty.

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[Anonymous Coward]

Sure, but mp3 will only die when nobody uses it. I don't see that happening anytime soon. iTunes is a splash in the bucket.

No biggie - just waiting for new ipods

[SteeldrivingJon]

It should be obvious why sales dropped - it's been a while since the last new iPod release, so people knew that there would probably be something new/bigger/cheaper coming out soon. So they delayed their purchases.