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In the Year 2020
An anonymous reader writes "Every 5 years, the CIA funds a detailed forecast of the future 15 years hence. The biggest trend identified in the latest report is the economic and technological rise of Asia."
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in the year Two Thousaaaaaand (and twenty)
.cig
US Unipolarity--How Long Can It Last?
A world with a single superpower is unique in modern times. Despite the rise in anti-Americanism, most major powers today believe countermeasures such as balancing are not likely to work in a situation in which the US controls so many of the levers of power. Moreover, US policies are not perceived as sufficiently threatening to warrant such a step.
Eh, with the Dollar doing as shitty as it has been and the country being run into financial ruins by someone known to have little success with any other financial venture he spearheaded I really don't think that we will be able to recover in as little as twelve years. We are digging an enormous hole right now both financially and in public opinion. When a leader sends a country to war on what we figured were false pretenses but ends up ahead at the end we might forgive them. When a leader sends a country to war on what we figured were false pretenses but ends of admitting we found squat I just don't think that public opinion will remain high...
The country may weaken itself due to internal conflict. Especially if the draconian measures continue to erode our personal freedoms.
In the future, growing distrust could prompt governments to take a more hostile approach, including resistance to support for US interests in multinational forums and development of asymmetric military capabilities as a hedge against the US.
Too bad they can't come right out and say that the distrust is justified. Who the fuck is going to go to bat for us when we get owned by more organized terrorists (or internal conflict) when anything the leaders of our country have said over the past 10 years is proven bullshit?
Many countries increasingly believe that the surest way to gain leverage over Washington is by threatening to withhold cooperation. In other forms of bargaining, foreign governments will try to find ways to "bandwagon" or connect their policy agendas to those of the US--for example on the war on terrorism--and thereby fend off US opposition to other policies.
And with the dollar so weak and public opinion (both nationally and internationally) low this will probably work. Any pressure they put on us 10 years ago would mean nothing. We would just use our leverage and shove back. With our country weakened on multiple fronts we won't have much leverage or public desire to have leverage (ie more deficit dollars).
I'd be interested to see past reports, and see what they got right. I know they having really been batting a thousand as of late.
/* oops I accidentally made a comment, sorry */
Sweet! We slashdotted the CIA!
to "Captains of the obvious"
Anyone who can't see what Asia, especially China is going to become is blind.
What was the last report like and did any of it seem to come true?
Same as in 1990. Bush in the whitehouse, future not so good. Bush leaves, things pick up. Another Bush (Jeb) gets elected. Apocolypse ensues.
Rapture this baby!
I am the lord of the pun. Dance Knave!
It would be nice to look back at past reports and see if they were even close to what eventually happened. War in the middle-east????
© 2004 The SCO Group, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Where's my personal helicopter to land in my driveway? And the return of the airship? And the 600-foot mechas helping us build skyscrapers?
Don't blame Durga. I voted for Centauri.
Or will Google/Slashdot/online be the primary/only means of news in 2020?!?
Hulk SMASH Celiac Disease
Weren't the Japanese our biggest threat 15 years ago? Nothing really came of that.
I want to know what happens in the year 2525, if Man is still alive.
If I have been able to see further than others, it is because I bought a pair of binoculars.
The U.S. is out of luck, by 2020 I will have reached Alpha Centauri and won.
Why am I not rapping? I am rapping with you in a way.
I'm glad we funded the CIA's report so that they could tell us that Asia is becoming technologically and economically advanced. As if we didn't already know they were a threat to European and American economies..
Who want's to be this report was sponsored by Windows XP Starter Edition?
President Jenna Bush?!? WTF!!!
__ Someday, but not this morning, I'll finally learn to use the preview button.
Crashed the CIA server.........
we have slashdotted the CIA.
Yeah, where the hell are all the flying cars? The comic books I read in the 60's promised them no later than 2001 - Where the hell are they?
And the domed cities.
And clear pneumatic tube transportation.
I want my flying car dammit!
Something i would like to mention
As the report states, India and China will both be big economic powers partly due to their huge population, but the standards of living won't necessarily be better.
I've been to India 12 years ago and i've been last year, and yes the standards of living have vastly improved, but for it to be at an acceptable level, it definitely won't take another 15 years. My hope is within 50 years (and that's being optimistic).
Marge, get me your address book, 4 beers, and my conversation hat.
Really hope not, because she's dead Jim....
From what I've been reading lately, we'll have cured death, enabling us to live over 1000 years while simultaneously have turned the entire world into a gray goo by perfecting nanobots.
My guess is it'll be about the same as it is now, except I'll be 15 years older, taxes will be higher, and we'll have a whole bunch more crap that doesn't really make our lives any easier.
-Arthur
Cave ne ante ullas catapultas ambules
"The biggest trend identified in the latest report is the economic and technological rise of Asia."
China WILL bite us on the ass. It's only a matter of time. We are enriching our enemy.
We do business with them so the capitalists can stuff more money in their already fat pockets as they undermine the very economy that is making them fat and rich. What will they do then?
They are rotating the wealth around.
China will become what we WERE and ameriKans will be doing slave labor to build cheap crap for the rich Chinese..
would like to shuo huanying nimen lai Meiguo to our new Chinese overlords.
Zenme shuo Zhongwen "you want fries with that?"
3D Printing Tips and Tricks at Zheng3.com
Has anyone found a PDF version of the report? I'd like to print it out but printing HTML web pages sucks.
Thanks,
-j
why are the cities of the future domed anyway?
keep the pollution from the natural atmosphere out?
cosmic rays?
porn stars?
and not one mention of a flying car..
=..(
How the hell can you have a detailed forecast of something 15 years in the future? Do they employ an army of psychics or what? What does this gain? They're just throwing away money every 5 years.
It's mostly just:
a)Wishful thinking
b)bad extrapolation of current trends
c)propoganda
I've been following Conan's "In the Year 2000" for some time now. You can imagine my surprise upon learning the gov't is now sponsoring the routine.
The CIA has been slashdotted...
Can you do better than linking to a neostalinist opinion rant page? Like present something factual?
From the Hill Valley Times:
(Biff, Times staff reporter)
Today, General Motors has announced the rollout of new flying cars, which will be complete by the year 2025 when regular cars will be banned from roadways. This is expected to reduce many traffic jams, as there is much more vertical space to work with. 2020 looks to be a big year for Hill Valley. The Hill Valley Courthouse is set to stop trial by jury altogether this year. The new method uses instant decisions based on a quick review of the facts and approvial by two judges. Also, this year will see the release of mentally ill terrorists that shot up a local shopping mall over 35 years ago. During their 1988 trial, a public defender claimed insanity in an open and shut case where they were screaming of a car disappearing into thin air and the need to catch a mad scientist. They will be returned to their native country, which has agreed to keep them out of this country indefinately in exchange for their release.
RE:China's and India's Per Capita GDPs Rising Against US---
outsource some more jobs and send some more manufacturing overseas, eventually the USA will be a land with just a very few rich, and masses of poor & hungry...
then chinese soldiers will pour in and rule, better learn to speak chinese...
And save the country before it is too late. What they are doing is treason. I say try em for treason and if found guilty, hang 'em.
That will put the quietus to this trade deficit right quick....
eat shiat and bark at the moon
Oh, Asia is rising technically and economically? I hadn't noticed. Man, that CIA, they're so clever the identify trends only twenty years too late!
The enemies of Democracy are
In 2020 we will find WMD's in Iraq...
Oh, wait a minute!?
I like the final scenario "Cycle of Fear".
I wonder if Orwell had any idea how big an impact his summarization of political oppression would play in the future?
https://www.accountkiller.com/removal-requested
I, for one, welcome our new Asian overlords.
Or will Google/Slashdot/online be the primary/only means of news in 2020?!?
Slashdot will still be around.
"What the hell? Microsoft went belly up 2 years ago! This dupe is sooooo 2018!"
also a slashdoting will be outlawed int he geniva convetion as crual and inhuman torture
-Military stronger than everyone else's? Check
-Foreign enemy considered barbaric? Check
-Foreign enemy wages hit and run warfare, avoids standing to fight in large battles? Check
-Vast amount of resources used to fight a limited threat? Check
-Power held by rich self serving minority? Check
-Populace stagnating culturally? Check
-Increasing importance placed on personal luxury and materialistic acquisitions? Check
And finally,
-Widening gap between average citizens and the fundamentals of survival (ie farming, etc.)? Check
Just because the US has been around for 200 years doesn't mean it will always be. Putting aside parisan politics and the religious schisms, I think that we really need to start addressing the hard issues that our country has traditionally ignored- until too late. One of these days, it will be.
OK, trollish subject aside (and yes I believe that's why it was modded up), what makes you believe that anyone else would be any more fiscally responsible?
I'll agree that Bush isn't doing us any favors, but you don't replace one big spender with another and expect things to be any different.
Case in point: Bush is trying to overhaul Social Security and rescue it from the inevitable financial ruin that Bill Clinton predicted in 1998. What are Democrats saying in response? That there is no financial crisis in Social Security, that the problem can be fixed by simply raising taxes.
Let me reiterate: Bush isn't doing this country's finances any favors. But neither would Democrats. The whole lot of them need to be given a lesson on how to spend other peoples' money (hint: sparingly).
"Ask not what your country can do for you." --John F. Kennedy
More likely that America will decline to the point that it resembles Europe.
You rightwingers think anyone who doesn't masturbate while listening to Rush is a Neostalinist, or at least a filthy dirty commie.
Here are some links
It's really common knowledge to anyone who has a decent reading range. BTW, I was listening to Rush when you were probably still getting lunch money from yer mama....
eat shiat and bark at the moon
I have to agree. Today in the news we see the culmination of a 2 billion mile trip to Titan ; cost : $3 billion. Compare this with $200 billion wasted in the invasion and failed subjugation of Iraq. America is bankrupting itself - the Chinese are salivating at the opportunities awaiting them; first Taiwan, then ?
that in 15 years they will find the WMDs that were there all along in Iraq, but gave up on a few days ago.
Sorry, but I don't hold too much credibility for these guys after completely imagining (along with British "intelligence") significant and substantial evidence of WMDs.
You know, I'd like to know the same thing about the CIA's 15 year predictions as Gartner's resear^H^H^H^H^H^Hcrap:
What, if any of their past "predictions" have come true? And is that statistically significantly different from a monkey throwing darts at random predictions...
My money is on "no".
And the best of all: China made some really really good movies in the last months. Go see "House of flying daggers" if you haven't and maybe another, somehow similar movie "2046". These films go lengths beyond Hollywood stereotypes and are just refreshingly traditional at the same time.
;)
;)
Rent them, if the cinema isn't playing them, you wont regret it, I promise. An astonishing flurry of images, colors and emotions, not artsy emotions like French films have, but very transparent and breathtaking scenes. "House of flying daggers" was, at least for me, absolutely the best film of this year, no matter what comes in the next 11 months
China has finally overcome the unavoidable repetion in most recent Hollywood movies and that's quite a feat. Imagine the first "Matrix"-part was a love movie with exactly the same cool action, a morale, fun, atmosphere, magic and tragedy all into one... Sounds impossible, eh? Watch the preview if you like
Didn't happen, did it?
You can't predict the future 15 years out. Hell, you can't even do it five out. Even predicting 2004 from 2000 can't be done, because there's no way any futurist could "predict" 9/11.
Thus these predictions will be every bit as flawed. In particular, predictions about Chinese ascension (which ignoring their inflation and money supply problems) will probably look just ase baseless 15 years from now as those stories about Japan ruling the world look now.
- Crow T. Trollbot
also a slashdoting will be outlawed int he geniva convetion as crual and inhuman torture
Clearly, that comes after grammar and spelling are outlawed.
For those who do not want to read the entire report, here are a few key points:
* Al Qaeda is replaced by decentralized terror groups which are equally deadly.
* China and India emerge as new global players. (But they could be competitive instead of cooperative)
* Rise in military strength of China and India - could lead to conflicts.
* Russia and Central Asia decline (in terms of democracy)
* Democracy grows in the Middle east.
* More competitive world for the United States
* India's Bollywood outshines Hollywood
* Rise of Korean Pop.
Now make your own predictions.
"When the only tool you own is a hammer, every problem begins to resemble a nail." - Abraham Maslow (1908-1970)
If the Slashdot community took out the CIA's webservers, will /. now be labelled a terrorist organization bent on the destruction of American freedoms and way of life?
First we are all communists (well, according to Billy), and now terrorists too!
so you wnat to hold people responsible that are workign their today, for the actions of those that have already retired.
nice.
the average CIA job is not that of a spy or something like you seem to think, its paperwork.
but hey, irrationally shutting down an entire organization is way better than fixign the problems
lmao the CIA website was Slashdotted!
even if they are running on our tax dollars ...
- People who believe other people have no right to live, got no right to live ...
2006: Virus takes over internet because of crappy defenses. Lots of people die. World court rules that the only OS that survives the virus, AltimitOS, is the only OS you can use. (Everyone better get a PlayStation 2, then)
2010: Problems emerge because of Altimit's code being closely related to a popular video game. An error in the games code puts several people into acoma...
I bet no one has any idea what story this is from.
I believe that China will become freer and more democratic as its citizens grow wealthier.
As far as rotating wealth around, I think you're confused. Capitalism is not a zero-sum game. Someday, China may have more wealth to us in relative terms, but we will all become richer through trade. Loss of jobs doesn't mean we've permanently lost wealth, it just means people must figure out where they fit in the new economy. As long as we have free trade and a free market, businesses and people will evolve.
The real problem here is the bad monetary policy that both the U.S. and China practices. We both have a lot of government-induced credit expansion. The U.S. boom will be coming to the end sometime in the next 5 years, and China is just starting its boom. If we could just get rid of our god damned central banks and their monetary policies, we could end credit expansion and have sustainable, indefinite economic growth.
but hey, irrationally shutting down an entire organization is way better than fixign the problems
Can't argue there! Hey, while we're at it, might as well get rid of the entire government but have no replacement ready!
We as a nation have historically weathered contentious times in relatively peaceful fashion.
...
While I agree with your fears that this may be the end, contentious times have frequently seen periods marked by violence. There were numerous labor protests in the late 19th century and early 20th century, dozens of people were shot dead by the police during many riots, the crowd's lynched policemen and members of the moneyed class. Not that they teach this stuff in HS History class
In the 60s and 70s, the President was assinated, we we in a war which was much bigger then the Iraqi conflict as it is today, there were massive race riots, radicals on the left were blowing up banks, radicals on right were burning down Churches, sometimes during Sunday school with children still inside.
I'm not saying everything is better today, but things aren't nearly as violent as they have been during some periods in the past.
94% of Repubs and 21% of Dems voted to renew the Patriot Act
Then everyone can become a member of the mile high club.
Have a good weekend.
http://asciiporn.org/
Peace
I didn't RTFA (it's long... I don't think anyone else read it either), but I did read a lot of business stories from the late 80's this week.
If there was one common theme, it was this: Japan, Japan, Japan. They were going to rip out our hearts and give it to us for lunch. Who could stop the Japanese and their hyper-efficient production lines? One editorial in the Financial Times lamented the fall of the American Empire and the rise of the Japanese Empire.
The Japanese bought every part and parcel of American land. Remember that? (I certainly forgot about that). People were afraid that America would eventually become Japanised. The trade deficit (now considered to be unimportant) continued to skyrocket.
Now, we see the same stories, but "Japan" is replaced with "China". Will China crash and burn like Japan? Probably not as spectacularly. Our innovation, creativity, and unbounded optimism will keep America at the top.
No doubt China and India will grow (myself want to invest in the Indian markets). But I highly doubt it will grow at the sole expense of the American economy.
2020 forecast and still no single word about *flying cars*?!
Change that fu$@#@g forecast now before it is too late! I DEMAND MY FLYING CAR BEFORE 2020!!!
I have to say, as a non-US citizen, I am impressed with the CIA. When I see someone interviewed on TV who we're told works for or used to work for the CIA, and the detailed information(of all countries) on their website, I'm impressed. Why? Because on TV when the person answers a question there are no "umms" and "aaas", no answering a question with a question (amazing how you get used to that). Very focused and professional.
If I speak my mind in line at a court house, I oculd be arrested.
If I want to travel by plane, I have to allow some stranger to put his hands on my childs privates.
If I want to protest, I must do it a specially cordened off places, and the press is kept away
If I happen to sell a product, and the MANUFACTURER of that product broke some laws, I will have the HOmeland security threatent to shut me down.
My house can be searched without probably cause.
My phones can be tapped for probably casue.
We are having other peoples 'decency' standards applied to us.
The Kruger Dunning explains most post on
I beg you guys to read the case study! I've never read a more pro-usa piece of literature and find it some of the most, albeit unwillingly, entertaining pieces of propaganda i've read.
You might not yourself read it as propaganda, but remember who these things will be presented to.
I suddenly realize why the United States of America have taken such disastrous decisions in the present and in the past.
for once, i will add this little abbriviation which i resent:
LOL!!! 11 ONE ELEVEN, you guys really did it!
The rest of the report is also slightly pro-americano but at least it doesn't plainly ignore the obvious problems that the USA have. Although it does tread very lightly
Blah blah sig blah blah blah irony blah blah
Nothing for 6-digit uids?
Man, I wish I still had mod points left.
The only problem is that the politicians are all trial lawyers, and they appoint the judges... Professional courtesy will keep justice at bay.
"Unheard of means only it's undreamed of yet,
Impossible means not yet done." ~~ Julia Ecklar
Do you actually believe china is a communist country? If so then why is half the stuff we own made there, which implies trade and markets. I agree with a post made here that just because chinese are making money we are losing it...and we also cant assume the chinese want to beat us into submission like the Russians under stalin. Think about it, if china seriously went to war with us...who would buy all their stuff? China's decent (not necessarily friendly) terms with us helps them too.
If they want taiwan let em have it, its like if texas became an independnet country at the end of the civil war...we would probably want it back in the union. it isnt worth going to war over...they have 1.2 billion people I doubt they want to many more especially if they are not ethnically chinese, like people in Taiwan.
-Ethical and moral degredation? Check
Tech, life, family, faith: Give me a visit
Total collapse of the US economy.
;p) so I might have missed it, but they do not seem to see Judgment Day coming.
OK, I could only read the executive summary (will the FBI send michael to Gitmo for orchestrating a DDoS attack on a government website?
As Cheney said: Reagan proved deficits don't matter. Well Richard, it is too early to say. Wait until you have to repay those 30 year T-bonds.
Reagan started the policy of voluntary massive deficits. That deficit has to be paid back 30 years later.
Given how the current administration is unable to pay only interest without running a skyhigh deficit (in other words, borrowing again to be able to pay interests!), I don't expect it to be able to pay back the capital...
And if I count right, 1981 + 30 = 2011. Expect the US to default on its debt by 2015. There is no way the US governement can afford to use half its budget to pay back its debts.
Too big to fail? Hell, France defaulted several times under Louis XIV, although the debt was in French currency, and although France was the leading world power at the time.
After Louis XIV's never-ending wars and corruption ruined France, England had free reign to achieve total world domination during the XVIIIth century.
America will never be destroyed from the outside. If we falter and lose our freedoms, it will be because we destroyed ourselves. --Abraham Lincoln
To announce that there must be no criticism of the President, or that we are to stand by the President, right or wrong, is not only unpatriotic and servile, but is morally treasonable to the American public. - Theodore Roosevelt
Instead of worrying about losing out economically to Asia maybe the West ought to be worrying about the point of no-return we'll be crossing in terms of CO2 emissions etc.
By 2020 I expect even SUV owners might be growing less sceptical about global warming:) Of course maybe it's all for nothing - it's the end of the world due 2012 (as per Mayan long count calendar)?
Can't say I'll be especially sorry to see us go.
Yes unfortunatly some of us do have learning disablities which make spelling and grammer slightly tricky. so hopefully they will also be solved by 2020.but thankyou for helping me see the error of my ways and the great crimes i have commited by making a few spelling and gramatical errors
It's interesting to look at the (nearer) "2010" one (done in 1996.) I was expecting a laugh, but it's not too bad. Tidbits that struck me:
One man's -1 Flamebait is another man's +5 Funny.
How come no one is talking about Peak Oil (Hubbert Peak)? That's when global oil production peaks and begins its inevitable decline. It may be happening now even...
Hmm... people always say, "nin2 yao4 tao4 can1 ma?" But that means, "Do you wanna make it a combo meal?"
If it MUST be "do you want fries with that", then say "yao4 pei4 shu3 tiao2 ma?"
FYI "shu3" = potato/yam, and "tiao2" = stick
PS Anybody know what's wrong with slashdot and Chinese characters? This is one of the only forums I've seen that turns them all into ??s
I'm a gnu world man.
that told that there were WMDs in Iraq that were so obvious that you could see them in sat photos.
Dude! We just /.ed the f'ing CIA! I don't think tinfoil will be enough.
*hides*
People were saying the exact same thing about Japan in the '80s. Sorry, but I don't see it happening.
Find one Democratic President who's spent more money he didn't have than any of the last three Republican Presidents. That would be...noone. Oops.
/. sig (the economy has done better under the worst Democratic President than under the best Republican President).
The Republicans have campaigned on their superiority to the Democrats on their spending and economic records, and I'm still trying to figure out why. 2/3 of the national debt was amassed during the last three Republican Presidents. Clinton didn't run the debt in eight years that Bush Sr. ran in four (and he ran the least debt of the three RPs). Clinton had the benefit of the economy, which of course doesn't help, because of the
The claim that anyone would have spent themselves silly doesn't seem to hold, because only the Republicans have shown themselves equal to that task. Since they have spent a good deal of the past decades complaining about the spending that they have been most qualified at undertaking, they are either hypocritical or stupid.
Social Security is a problem, and one Clinton or the Democrats did nothing about. On the other hand, making SS reliant on the entity (the stock market) it was instituted to secure savings from doesn't seem like the smartest policy on the planet. Of course, removing money from the system (to invest in the stock market) while it is reliant on current income to pay current recipients without raising taxes and then saying that future and current SS recipients won't lose money seems to require mathematical legerdemain that is beyond my capacity to understand. In this case, to keep SS solvent without cutting it (which would probably sink the stock market) taxes are probably the best solution (in concert with raising the retirement age). They aren't always the best solution, but they may be in this case.
So... what are we doing to fix this problem here at home?
fast as fast can be. you'll never catch me.
John said so.
Johns War
IT is Dead. The industry is Shot Join Others Who Feel Your Pain http://www.internalstrife.com/
Isn't that why we are really in Iraq? We need to establish a controlling presence in a couple of places, in case one gets overturned.
These are some of the things molecules do...... given 4 billion years -Carl Sagan
Here is the original report from the investment firm gs:
6 .html
http://www.gs.com/insight/research/reports/report
Most of the stuff on aging and energy is from public institutions as well. Not much new or interesting here.
CommanderTaco should be hearing a knock at his door a few moments from now.
There are links in the article to the reports forecasting 2010 and 2015 as well. Unfortunately, no report forecasting 2005 that we can check.
"Loss of jobs doesn't mean we've permanently lost wealth, it just means people must figure out where they fit in the new economy."
You tell that to all the newly unemployed people that were just permantely fired because their plant closed down because the fat cats on Wall Street decided they could enrich themselves even more by firing workers making $10 an hour and replacing them with workers that make $1 a day, if they are lucky. Some of the workers are political prisoners. Yes, prison labor..
You tell the man or woman just fired that they "just have to figure out where they fit in" as you say and you may get your face punched in.
Couple the massive outflow of jobs with the massive inflow of immigrants (legal and illegal) an you've got a recipe for economic disaster.
"It is better for Americans to purchase from Americans, even if
the things purchased cost more.
If we purchase a ton of steel rails from England for twenty
dollars, then we have the rails and England the money. But if we
buy a ton of steel rails from an American for twenty-five dollars,
then America has both the rails and the money."
Abraham Lincoln
The Department of Homeland Security de-prioritized the search for al-Qaeda terrorists in order to systematically hunt down Slashdot members in retaliation for burning CIA servers.
Two high-ranking members of the organization, known only as 'CmdrTaco' and 'CowboyNeal', were gunned down as they fled in the smoke and confusion of a daring dawn raid by authorities...
I'm not good in groups. It's difficult to work in a group when you're omnipotent. - Q
The report doesn't seem to mention the possibility of a global pandemic drastically altering the global landscape. A lot of epidemiologists seem to agree that the world is "overdue" for a pandemic. However nobody knows what it will be or when/where it will strike(Probably be influenza related though). A pandemic could drastically alter the world landscape. The plague practically ended feudalism in Europe because when there were not enough peasants to work the fields, the peasants found out that they were scarce and could demand much more than eeking out a minimal existance.
Monstar L
China WILL bite us on the ass. It's only a matter of time. We are enriching our enemy.
Do you really think china is your enemy? Don't kid yourself.
Anybody notice which stocks will be on top? Or say, who's going to win, place, and show in the next 15 Kentucky Derbies? JC...
Billions of dollar spent on hunting down terrorists, thousands of jobs outsourced because of high salary demand in the US... why not?!
"anyone who doesn't masturbate while listening to Rush is a Neostalinist, or at least a filthy dirty commie"
Geddy Lee might sound like a woman at times, but this is ridiculous!
"I was listening to Rush when you were probably still getting lunch money from yer mama...."
I'm waitin' for the 2112 predictions, man.
http://cylan.deviantart.com/gallery/
Funny I don't see the Segway mentioned.
Although the document is getting slashdotted and its kinda void of info the "Status of Women" URL talks about women equality and whatnot.
I know I'm going to piss of many a geek girl and probably a majority of guys, but here we go...
Background. I'm a single male never married, but in a few long term relationships, one of almost 9 years, and didn't have the best of relationship with my mother, but I like her OK, better than my father.
It talks about equality of income and whatnot. Yeah, it says in the constitution that "all men are created equal" which is taken to mean women too, but I believe that is BS. A salary is completely supply and demand, and _everyone_ gets paid what they are valued in that society. I'm not equating money/salary with goodness or anything like that, purely money. There are people that get paid an exorbitant amount of money to kick a ball, or to throw it into a hoop, or similar tricks. No matter how much I try, I will never be anywhere successful in such an activity, nor do I make any ballpark of what they do, nor will I.
Women get paid less than men for a reason. A man will not ever, ever get pregnant and take off a good chunk of time for work. One example. The emotional aspect of women vs men is another factor. And so on. When it comes to leadership qualities and things that get the job done, I believe, and I believe it has been demonstrated that women are clearly inferior to men in this regard, and this is why they are paid less, and why they will _always_ get paid less.
There are always going to be exceptions, but I strongly believe this to be true as well as empirically to be demonstrated.
I am not saying that I am that great of a male. I'm not. But I will say that men and women are not equal, and that many of women qualities are excellent, but will not typically be rewarded with pay (except for the already known exceptions).
Why would right-wingers beat off while listening to Geddy L... Oh, THAT Rush.
I'm certain that we need to preemptively strike something NOW!
"I am Barbara Walters and this is 2020."
I'm a signature virus. Please copy me to your signature so I can replicate.
September 11, 2020
It has been exactly nineteen years today since the view from the 38th floor changed with the destruction of the Twin Towers. I was remarking when the President of the United States phoned that more than the skyline has been altered since. Not only has a new structure been built, partially obscuring the devastation of 9/11, but the US has risen like a phoenix--albeit a beleaguered one--and it again seems to be the bedrock of the international order.
I would say it started when Europe and America began to get together again. It turns out Venus and Mars cross each other's orbits from time to time. The 2010 terrorist attacks in Europe had a lot to do with it. They changed attitudes, and suddenly the Europeans had a better appreciation of catastrophic terrorism--a whole different kettle of fish from what they had known. Publics quickly became energized, particularly as the attacks were seen as totally unjustified. The seriousness of the attacks was such that Europe and America got beyond the name-calling and, in fact, Europeans began imploring America to get tough on terrorism.
The closing of transatlantic ranks was prompted by more than this. One thing that became clear is that Europe was more unified than some of our American friends imagined. New Europe turned out to be not that much different from Old Europe, once it joined the EU club and began hanging out in Brussels. NATO went through some rough times but is now working better with the EU. There is grudging acceptance on both sides that NATO has the necessary military tools while the EU can bring to the table a capacity for nation-building.
On the European side, a lot had to do with Turkish accession--something I never expected to see. With the prospect of Turkey coming in, the Europeans realized that their border was now squarely in the Middle East and that meant they had to be more prepared to deal with all the problems of terrorism, fundamentalism, youth bulges, etc.
Coming together as they did, Europe helped to persuade the US that something had to be done to stop the spiraling violence in Palestine. For the Europeans, that had always been the root of the problem, but divisions and a lack of will always got in the way of any concerted action.
Energy and climate change are also playing an increasing role in the US-European dynamics, but not the way one would have expected. For a while, the Europeans looked like they were trying to isolate the US and insist on Washington playing by EU rules. But that was never really going to happen, and European leaders did not factor in their own publics' increasing resentment of China's and other developing countries' flaunting of environmental standards. Kyoto was suddenly out and a new framework had to be thought up with the Americans inside.
The US role changed even more dramatically in Asia. China was rising and, while not directly challenging the US, was certainly displacing it in the region, particularly economically. America's preoccupation with Iraq and terrorism looked set to diminish the US role even more. Japan stood close to the US on Iraq but was conflicted too because of its economic dependence on China. In South Korea, the younger generation blamed the US for the division and problems with the North. It seemed only a matter of time before the US would be pushed to the sidelines.
Then a series of events occurred which changed the dynamic. Frightened by the continuing impasse in North Korea, rumors leaked of the Japanese seriously thinking about their own bomb. About this time China also suffered an economic relapse, which exacerbated the confrontational tone over Taiwan, also heightening worries in Japan and Southeast Asia. The US initially wanted to heighten its profile but found that many worried about a US-China conflict. Washington ended up scaling back its military presence in Korea and Japan. Most do not want the US to leave; even China, I think, secretly sees some virtue in having the US around inasmuch as it ma
Actually the report points out the following:
Because of the sheer size of China's and India's populations--projected by the US Census Bureau to be 1.4 billion and almost 1.3 billion respectively by 2020--their standard of living need not approach Western levels for these countries to become important economic powers.
Which means these two could have a global impact even if substantial parts of the country were living in poverty. Both these nations cannot afford to wait around for all its troubles to be over before pushing to the front.
The report does a good comparison of both nation's strengths and weaknesses under the "Risks to Economic growth" part. Interesting read..
Rapid Nirvana
I think that /. is a good demonstration that Sturgen was being optomistic!
the preceding comment is my own and in no way reflects the opinion of the Joint Chiefs of Staff
China will become what we WERE and ameriKans will be doing slave labor to build cheap crap for the rich Chinese..
Who knows, you might end up entering China as illegal immigrants...
Yes, the parent poster is absolutely right. Knowing what kind of threats/situations are likely to come up helps to plan. Theoretically it would save money too. But there's too many special interest military projects that congress votes for to much cancel out any savings.
The sending of this message pretty much inconveniences everyone involved.
Squaresoft will release Final Fantasy XX-3-n.5.... and 1/2.
MS Longhorn SP2 will come out.
Save the study money, fly over to China.
USA rights are and standards of living are headed there at break-neck pace - just hope you can hang on so the neck ain't yours.
David Ricardo's Iron Law of Wages: $5/yr for everybody!
Expect Freedom.
First of all, the first world's population will be radically altered from the vast number of people emigrating from 3rd world countries to 1st world countries. This is has prons and cons: it will definitely give a boost to local economies, due to more young people working, but it will also bring havoc to social peace.
Secondly, we are plunging with great speed into a 2nd age of darkness. More and more, people don't use their critical thinking and logic and they are based on emotion, faith and mysticism. Although technology has done quantum leaps in the last century, the average person (average, when including 3rd world countries, of course) has no clue about mainstream science and attributes everything to God (just like with the recent tsunami being viewed as a punishment from God).
The standard of education goes down like a rock falling from a cliff, and there are gonna be millions of people with diplomas and degrees which are essentially uneducated into what makes society tick.
The computer business will reach a point where everything halts. Processing power would be so great, that upgrading will be meaningless. Of course that is after computers can do realtime raytracing and voice synthesis.
We are never gonna go to Mars.
There is a possibility of a 3rd World War, much more devastating than the first two, especially if politicians keep ignoring the facts that the west's wars are viewed as religious wars by East.
How'd we go from the CIA telling the future to Bush vs Kerry & American foreign policy?
A rather small mention...
but at least it's on the radar.
Perhaps that means they will start taking us geeks seriously when we notice a patern in the interuption of our TV Signal?
It's an invasion!
Why? I don't see any connection at all. Unless you are talking about the state of today's daycare facilities.
Or did you mean if you wanted your child to come with you?
This post written under Gentoo-linux with an SCO IP license.
So this doesn't bother anyone else that the most "covert" agency in our government is publishing reports to the world like it was handing out slices of bread? Way to not draw attention to yourselfs. Oh well I don't really care. I don't trust those bastards anyways ;)
Won't happen. A few years back, Cantopop had a setback in China, and Korean pop became fashionable. It still is, in some ways, together with Japanese pop, but it really can't match Chinese Canto- and Mandopop in terms of quality, and definitely not in terms of quantity. My prediction is that Chinese pop will have more and more international impact (heck, I am already totally sold). Language barriers don't really matter; when the American cultural imperialism struck Europe with Jazz, Swing and Rock, few of the listeners understood what the artists were singing.
Western music will probably always dominate in the West. This is natural. But RIAA and the oligopolistic conglomerats in the music biz will stifle any further creativity and innovation, which is why there hasn't been any new stuff since Kurt Cobain put a cap to his nostril.
Such structures don't exist - and can't exist - in China, where the competition is murderous.
One thing I did not notice in the paper was the political stability of China facing the demands of a growing middle class. Can China continue it's high wire act of trying to stoke the engine of economic growth while continuing it's political monopoly of one party rule? If China has a political revolution spurred by such economic growth it could throw China and globalization in turn in turnmoil. What happens if such a revolution fails? Perhaps it will not happen. I am somewhat anxious to what the future may hold if a growing economic power such as China is not a free and open society. On a side note, I think it is predictable that people pick out parts of the article and try to advance their political agenda or bias. I have read many of the other threads and they are filled with such verses. The article is not about Bush or war in Iraq but rather much larger macro ecocnomic trends. Why does it always have to degenerate into such bashing?
although I'm pretty sure the /. sig refers to those in at least the last 70-80 years.
I only went after the last three Republican Presidents because in particular W and Reagan have been promoted as antidotes to big government liberalism, have desired (or claimed to desire) to decrease the role of the federal government, and to spend less money. None of these has happened during any of their administrations, and while each had differing levels of support from Congress, none have really seemed to try.
is available on mirrdot.
"When the only tool you own is a hammer, every problem begins to resemble a nail." - Abraham Maslow (1908-1970)
Your quote by Lincoln is interesting, and reasonably correct. But... who is driving the quest for lower costs, is it the corporate fatcats who want bigger paychecks, the shareholders (many of whom are smaller investors) who want investment growth, or the consumers who want lower prices?
I submit that it is all three groups, and a 'Buy American' policy needs to be supported by every American.
Hollywood: The place good stories go to die.
In the not too distant future, next Sunday A.D., they'll be this guy named Joel...
"When the only tool you own is a hammer, every problem begins to resemble a nail." - Abraham Maslow (1908-1970)
When will we have flying cars?
When will we have X-ray goggles?
When will we have solved the Slashdot Effect?
-- the only thing we have to fear is really scary things
Hey asshole, you just said that Taiwanese are not ethnically Chinese, and you must know that even though China's not communist economically it sure as hell is a repressive one party authoritarian state politically. Taiwan is more like 13 colonies that, sure had their roots on the other side of a body of water but have since developed a distinct and separate culture and don't feel like living under a monarchy. Ring any bells? You're talking about this like it doesn't matter that two countries with very significant militaries could go to war (just Taiwan and China, not even including the US), and that a war like that would kill tens of millions of people. Read some history, read some news, and have some thoughfulness when you're talking about something like an invasion of a freedom-loving democracy.
The world will end in 2012 anyway.
Have they given up predicting this one yet ?
In the year 2020 Longhorn will be out the next year...
Powered by caffeine and sugar; BSD
The CIA will commission a report about what the world will be like in 2035...
I would rather put a pistol to my head..
Fighting for a brand new day, nothing is going to get in there way.
And in the year 2525 three women keep hope alive,joining forces to reclaim the Earth,
Looking ahead to humankinds rebirth."
"Care to give an example of YOUR freedoms that are being continually eroded?"
Let's start with the freedom to be considered innocent before proven guilty.
Continue on to the right to a fair and prompt trial by your peers.
Continue to the right to a proper legal defense.
And then there's that pesky Habeus Corpus thing, and lots more.
All the govt needs to do now is call you a "terrorist", and you can now be held indefinitely, as in possibly for the rest of your LIFE, without being charged, without access to lawyers, and even under the threat of being shipped overseas to a country that recognizes even fewer rights.
I might have an inclination to support this and other anti-terrorist laws (Patriot Act, etc.) if I thought it would be truly used with care, discretion, and only as intended, i.e., against real terrorist cases. Terrorists play a very nasty, violent, and real game, and we need exceptional tools to fight them on their ground.
However, within 6 months of getting Patriot I passed, Ashcroft's crews were touring around the country giving seminars to prosecutors on how to use these new powers in ordinary investigations and cases. Since the enforcers immediately abused the tools as soon as they were given, they are obviously untrustworthy and must be opposed.
As Edmund Burke said "All that is necessary for evil to succeed is that good men do nothing."
Your Alfred E Newman attitude is an example of this failure. You have apparently forgotten or do not care that our government is to be "of the people, by the people, for the people"? This attitude gains nothing and harms others, and as such is truly stupid (and I mean that exactly, as in the third law, not as a weak insult).
Many intelligent people are deeply concerned that we are losing the freedoms which made this country great (and not in a trivial red state/blue state way). How do we wake the others?
People want cheaper stuff but they don't think through the consequences of their actions.
When I was a kid, say around BW 1965 (Before Walmart) there were zillions of little stores around, each one catering to a specialty.
A men's clothing store for men, an appliance store for appliances, etc...
And there were repair shops. When your (made in Chicago) toaster broke, you took it to the fix-it shop and you paid the nice, talented man to repair it and you took it home and used it.
Now, when your (made in China) toaster breaks, you throw it away (in the overflowing landfill) and buy a new one. How long does it last? If you are lucky, a few months. I bought one a few years ago and it was a POS, you had to hold the handle down while it toasted. I finally beat it to death on the driveway..
I still have a NICE, HEAVY, stainless steel toaster, made in the 60's, that I would LOVE to repair. I know how to repair it. I know exactly how to repair it. But I can't. Why? Because they don't sell parts to repair stuff anymore.
THAT pisses me off. I can repair ANYTHING if I can get the parts. My dad was a Radio/TV repairman then an Mechanical Engineer in the 50's and 60's and I have his talent for repairing anything broken, no matter what it is.
So with all this cheap, unrepairable CRAP, they bleed you to death. You have to buy new crap over and over and over again, without end. The days of owning something that you can pass on to your kids are GONE.. Hell, you can't even leave furniture to them, that fscking sawdust pressboard crap should be outlawed.
They've forced people into an endless loop of consumerism. The corporations are the parasites and we are the hosts. Like ticks, they suck the blood out of us, but like all parasites, they suck the blood until either they die or the host dies. They don't care about striking a balance because they know they may be out of business next week, so they suck hard and fast to get as much as they can before they are smacked down.
Big business cares not at all about their customers, not one iota. They care about self enrichment only and if they have to crush the skulls of a million babies to make a higher profit margin, they will do it with glee and joy in their hearts.
I wouldn't have a problem with Chinese or Mexican crap being in the stores, IF they also would offer the choice of an American made product right next to it, even at a higher price. I would buy the American made product 100% of the time. It's wrong to sell out your country and people just for the sake of GREED..
My political compass point to ----> Realist
I like how the CIA fictionally accuses itself of stirring up trouble between Shias and Sunnis in the Caliphate scenario
The CIA's intelligence gathering ability at the PRESENT time sucks - why would their future predictions be any better?
Central Intelligence Agency - now there's a contradiction in terms.
-ted
maybe they'd have more luck if they changed the name of the agency?
http://www.cia.gov/cia/information/bush.html/
I recommend everybody to read the CIA report, parts of it anyways. However, read it consciously with this in mind:
;-)
It's only about power, force, strength, competition, threats, tactics, etc, etc. It's ALL MALE concepts of how the world is supposed to be working.
In the extreme, male-thinking, is only about fear. It might leave you blind to the obvious: Let's be friends, not allies. If you read the CIA-report, it's all fiction. Just read about young Europeans growing anti-americanism because they didn't witness WWII themselves. It's a poor argument covering up the truth. Deluding oneself will only distort clear vision. Who wants to follow a blind?
You cannot build a bridge between nations based on fear. "The New World Order" will not weather the storm of time, if it's based on fear and covered threats.
I believe the future of international politics will include more and more female values, like nurturing, cooperation, upliftment, virtue, idealism, hope, trust, honesty.
Are we so fearful, we don't dare to take in these values and develop ourselves? This goes for EVERYBODY. Instead of radiating fear, insecurity and indifference, we can boldly radiate trust, strength and caring. It'll make you happier, and people around you will remark a difference, even change a bit themselves.
Btw, I'm male. You don't have to be female or gay to incorporate female concepts.
This is not about "Make love not war", it's much more down to earth and natural than that. It's the bold way to live. There's so much wisdom in the world, let's use the best of the best, instead of relying on old paradigms.
http://www.debunkingskeptics.com/
Where I live, after taxes and rent/utilities for a modest apartment, I'd probably starve to death if I made 20K. Do you live in Alabama or something?
"The melancholy in my statement perhaps belies my own awareness of the fact that I believe myself to be wishing in one hand and crapping in the other"
"I would agree, it's high time for the gloves to come off,"
I really wouldn't take your gloves off right now.
Slashdot - Mutual Assured Discussion
Colour me unconvinced at the quality of Cantopop. From my (admittedly fairly limited) experience with Hong Kong radio, it's still dominated by sappy love ballads - the kind of utterly predictable tripe that American Idol winners put together in a few minutes for their first single, but with inferior production.
Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from a rigged demo
--Andy Finkel (J. Klass?)
In the year 2525 If man is still alive. If woman can survive, they may find. In the year 3535 Ain't gonna need to tell the truth, tell no lies. Everything you think, do and say, is in the pill you took today. In the year 4545 Ain't gonna need your teeth, won't need your eyes. You won't find a thing to chew. Nobody's gonna look at you. In the year 5555 Your arms hanging limp at your sides. Your legs got nothing to do. Some machine doing that for you. In the year 6565 Ain't gonna need no husband, won't need no wife. You'll pick your son, pick your daughter too. From the bottom of a long glass tube. Whoa-oh In the year 7510 If God's a-comin, he oughta make it by then. Maybe he'll look around himself and say. Guess it's time for the judgment day. In the year 8510 God is gonna shake his mighty head. He'll either say.I'm pleased where man has been. Or tear it down and start again. Whoa-oh In the year 9595 I'm kinda wonderin if man is gonna be alive. He's taken everything this old Earth can give. And he ain't put back nothing.Whoa-oh Now it's been ten thousand years Man has cried a billion tears. For what he never knew, now man's reign is through. But through eternal night. The twinkling of starlight. So very far away. Maybe it's only yesterday. In the year 2525 If man is still alive. If woman can survive, they may find. In the year 3535... http://www.metrolyrics.com/lyrics/29388/Zager_and_ Evans/In_the_Year_2525/
In the Year, 2525, IF MAN IS Still Alive. .
#2
cc: Zager & Evans
The idea that Europe will stop caring about the environment because of economic competition from developing nations is very laughable and clearly demonstrates how the authors are trying to suck up to the current US administration. There is very real concern about the environment and climate change here. Regardless of the economic priorities of politicians, there is no way that the youth of today, who will be voting in 15 years, would allow such a move.
In the introduction, it is stated that the future cannot be known. True, but this document is not even close. It is pure fantasy. US verbal masturbation of the highest order.
flossie
Write now. Defend liberty
In a mere 25 years, Japan rose from the poverty of 1945 to a near superpower in 1970. China looks like it will take about 40 years, starting from its capitalistic freedom given by Deng Xiaoping in 1980. However, it seems to be on a similar trajectory. India wasnt unleashed until 1990, but it could be up there too in 15 to 30 years.
Under Clinton the budget was balanced and the deficit was gone. This "spendocrats" myth is just that. Historically, Democratic Presidents have been much more fiscally responsible.
The 'balanced budget' of the Clinton era was only made possible by taxes levied on a modern version of tulipmania.
All projections were based on a unsustainable reality. The budget only looked balanced, the 'surplus' was an illusion. The budget burst along with the bubble. Neither Republicans nor Democrats get the credit or blame - we simply lost our minds for awhile and government temporarily benefited by taxing the transfer of wealth.
will rebel against the foolish hu-mans
The Social Security crisis is a myth! The program itself can continue to pay out just as it has in the past without increasing taxes or revenue till about 2050. Does that mean something has to be done? Of course. Does that mean we need to scrap the whole program to help Bush's cronies? Of course not. To sum up, in 45 years or so it will be out of money but its not like this is immediate and it does NOT need drastic measures that the the President is proposing.
In the year 2525
_ Evans/In_the_Year_2525/
If man is still alive.
If woman can survive, they may find.
In the year 3535
Ain't gonna need to tell the truth, tell no lies.
Everything you think, do and say, is in the pill
you took today.
In the year 4545
Ain't gonna need your teeth, won't need your eyes.
You won't find a thing to chew.
Nobody's gonna look at you.
In the year 5555
Your arms hanging limp at your sides.
Your legs got nothing to do.
Some machine doing that for you.
In the year 6565
Ain't gonna need no husband, won't need no wife.
You'll pick your son, pick your daughter too.
From the bottom of a long glass tube. Whoa-oh
In the year 7510
If God's a-comin, he oughta make it by then.
Maybe he'll look around himself and say.
Guess it's time for the judgment day.
In the year 8510
God is gonna shake his mighty head.
He'll either say.I'm pleased where man has been.
Or tear it down and start again. Whoa-oh
In the year 9595
I'm kinda wonderin if man is gonna be alive.
He's taken everything this old Earth can give.
And he ain't put back nothing.Whoa-oh
Now it's been ten thousand years
Man has cried a billion tears.
For what he never knew,
now man's reign is through.
But through eternal night.
The twinkling of starlight.
So very far away.
Maybe it's only yesterday.
In the year 2525
If man is still alive.
If woman can survive, they may find.
In the year 3535....
http://www.metrolyrics.com/lyrics/29388/Zager_and
Hey, I can understand people being angry. I've been unemployed myself. But instead of trying to fight against the law of supply and demand, we should flow with it. Start a business in order to take advantage of the cheap labor. You make money, while also creating new jobs. As the supply of jobs increases, the demand for employees increases, and that cheap labor won't be so cheap. By being greedy enough to start a business and hire cheap labor, you'll have done your part to increase world-wide productivity and competition for employees, which ultimately raises wages. Cool, huh?
Of course, you probably don't have enough money or investors to start a business. That's okay, I don't either. But I'm working on it while I'm employed now, so that I'll be ready if I ever get fired down the road. So, between now and the time you are saving to start your business, you might just have to settle for retraining if you lose your job. Of course, that takes money as well. So, what would I tell you if you don't have any money? Well, that's where personal responsibility and planning ahead comes in. My personal savings rate is around 50%, because I live well below my means. The U.S. national savings rate is about 0.3%. Yes, it's less than even 1%. Part of that is the government's fault, because high taxes, social security, etc. discourage private savings. But we also have to take responsibility as regular everyday people.
I don't say all this stuff to put people down, I say that in hopes it will help them become successful (as I hope to be, someday). Like I said, I put my money where my mouth is, because I'm living below my means, prepared to start a business if I have to find another job.
I doubt immigration to the U.S. will "bring havoc to social peace," since people have been arguing this in various forms since colonial times. They said it about Germans, Irish, Southern Europeans (Italians, etc.); more recently, they've been saying it about Mexicans and others from south of America. By almost any measure, however, these people have assimilated, while adding their own culture to the larger U.S.
More and more, people don't use their critical thinking and logic and they are based on emotion, faith and mysticism. Although technology has done quantum leaps in the last century, the average person (average, when including 3rd world countries, of course) has no clue about mainstream science and attributes everything to God (just like with the recent tsunami being viewed as a punishment from God).
Speaking of critical thinking, do you actually have any evidence for this point, or are you just making the sort of generalizations you might chide others for making?
There is a possibility of a 3rd World War, much more devastating than the first two, especially if politicians keep ignoring the facts that the west's wars are viewed as religious wars by East.
There has always been a "possibility" of another World War, but it seems to be that the world is a much safer place today in terms of massive wars than it was when the Soviet Union existed.
Fuck off and die.
The private donors wanted to spend millions jerking him off.
Really? You coulda fooled me.
The two presidents with the worst budget deficits, both accomplished by combining tax cuts and with increased spending, are Bush (Republican) and Reagan (Republican).
....
The last two presidents to have a budget surplus were Clinton (Democrat) and Johnson (Democrat).
Social Security is NOT in crisis. The trust fund is growing, and will do so for another ten years or so. It will then gradually decline and take about 50 years to be bankrupt. This can easily be fixed by a small payroll tax increase. Entrusting Social Security to the likes of Enron and World Com, who were run to the ground by friends of Bush, is a pretty inept way of rescuing a system which does not need rescuing any time soon, and even then, can be easily rescued by a small tax increase. MOre likely, Bush wants to make it appear to be in crisis so he can destroy this leftover from FDR's New Deal. Socialism and all that, doncha know
The privatization plan would require another two trillion $$$ to finance during the transition period, all borrowed of course. A small payroll tax increase is far less intrusive than the massive inflation tax generated by such borrowing.
Infuriate left and right
It deeply saddens, and more than a little frightens me, that we are so poor (as a species) at distinguishing the underlying motivations behind global and local human behavior.
Human beings are not designed for dramatic change. That is, we're the results of historical conditions that existed over the span of thousands or even tens of thousands of years. Our brains are highly plastic, allowing us to "learn", therefore adapt to chaotic environments. This is however, not conducive to our physical and mental health, and is clearly in conflict with our ovewhelming drive to control and find comfort in the familiar.
Now we find ourselves faced with exponentially growing technology and information. The world changes faster now in a month, than it did for tens of generations a only a millenium ago. The ability to adapt to the ever increasing rate of change has left many people in one form of shock or another. The common response is to latch onto culture of superstition that gives one some sense of continuity, and more some greater sense of roots in the storm. This in of itself is not bad, but when superstition marries ideology, and gives birth to malignant social orders, we find ourselves facing again the worst in people.
American society today has grasped firmly onto a variety of religious mythologies, with the kind of fervor usually reserved for drowning men. The result of this deep current in our society, is that our entire political system is becoming manned by people who deeply believe in an imminent "Christian Rapture", and that it's their job to wage war in the mid-east, destroy the environment, and literally force God's hand in bringing about the "Armageddon". Of course, this process goes completely against every tenet of their own religion, but the need to grasp onto that which provides the sense of immortality in the face of change, drives the ignorant and fearful like lemmings over the cliffs edge. Unfortunately, a fair number of us, (who do not agree with the idea that fouling our world, or waging global war is in anybody's best interest) are being dragged kicking and screaming to the edge of disaster right along with those less enlightened. This can be clearly seen as the natural backlash to accelerating change. People want to force the world back to one they can understand and control. The illusion ultimately is that they never had that kind of control.
It is vital that as a race, we begin to distinguish that which is essential to being human. Keeping that torch brightly lit, as we teach our children to embrace the currents of change. As technology allows us to unlock the mysteries of the universe itself, we must become the masters of our better nature, cultivating that aspect of being human that allows us to peacefully coexist, and strive to be better. The alternative is to turn upon ourselves with greater and greater ferocity, until our race finally implodes and all that remains is our trace in the fossil record. Rationality is the only course that preserves. We must stop being the slaves of our superstitions, and the purveyors of violent and dominating ideologies. We must embrace our diversity, our integrity, our humanity. To do less, is to willfully abandon all our tomorrows.
Genda Bendte
I catch a really bad vibe nowdays. I wonder if US is torn into several warlord states and fight each other like in Ancient China or Sengoku era in Japan...
I'm getting plugs, Sandevistan, Boostmaster and an SGI Elysia. I'm totally chillin at the Kerry Eurodyne concert, drinking Smash and looking for a date who'se got the 'the Midnight Lady' upgrade. I'll be looking fly in my Urban Flash and carrying my Miltech Avenger Smartgun.
2020 is going to be sweet!!
Take a math course, and a public finance course, it might do you good. It's a pyramid scheme. With a declining birthrate, and increasing number of beneficiaries, it's simple math -- it will collapse, unless you up taxes well over fifty percent, and eliminate the yearly caps for individuals. The only way to "save" it is to raise the retirement age to eighty or higher.
If it is so simple please explain these numbers. Because from my computer science background it seems fairly straightforward that the population of retirees to workers is not a limit which approaches infinity.
I don't understand why we are so threatened by the idea that the only way to maintain social security is to raise taxes. There is an upper limit and it is directly proportional to the ratio between workers and senior citizens. Whatever that ratio is, it is. Seniors MUST be supported. They can not be required to support themselves. If some of them are wealthy... so be it. But in general seniors are largely not capable of working, and they are not to blaim for this. It is a natural stage in human life.
It isn't like senior citizens HOARD the money. They spend it all and it goes straight back into the economy.
We OWE it to our parents and grandparents to support them and thank them once they's sacrificed so much to raise us, teach us and give us life during our childhood.
Privatizing any part of social security is nothing more than a bid to inflate stock market prices.
Speaking of pyramid shemes...
No one has a right to their *own* opinion. They have a right to the TRUTH.
You are so correct. I'm not saying we should ditch male concepts, merely incorporate more female aspects. When we can use both sides effectively, they will cease to be sides. Conflict arise from separation, so making both integral will almost make conflict disappear.
The world has been decidedly male the last thousands of years, that is why we dearly need more female values and human values in society now. So we can rest in both, and become one the way it is meant to be.
http://www.debunkingskeptics.com/
I see any extremist that forgets the real lessons of the past as the problem. When I hear anyone so carefully filter out those elements that bare a resemblence to their political ideology merely to lash out at their opponents then I see one man fighting his own reflection.
It's true though, that the stick you are beating us all with somehow doesn't feel any softer after you inscribed "the people's stick" on it.
indirectly the economy suffers from lesser spending because of this
voters accept it, politicians expect it... therefore more pork is brought in to manage it
Requiring more taxes... the burden is increased
All along the way the "distribution of wealth" is ferried with all the diligence, vigilence and competence expected from transporting pure ethenol in a 1/4 inch thick styrofoam container.
Taxes especially burden the poor... decreasing spending all around is the answer along with flattening out the tax rate.
First step of "fairness" is to create a flat tax rate, the wealthy will still therefore be contributing the most
Next, start phasing out income taxes and focus on sales, excise and import tax
just like with a fat person who wants to get fit, there is more than just exercise to consider since food intake also is important. We are spending more than can be collected and pork barrel spending insures that the stupid and incompetent receive this money... think of government contracts and the incompetence they breed
congress taxes the social security of beneficiaries, another interesting bit is to look at who was one of the co-authors of changes allowing such taxation
congress does not pay taxes
congress gets full salaries as pension... and it stacks
active congressmen get a hoard of other tax exempt or free benefits that you and I will never see... this continues on to a lesser degree when they quit
congress is accountable only to itself so don't ever expect a change in their behavior until there is a change in their "freedom from accountability"
btw, this lack of accountability and long term slide into autocracy was predicted rather accurately 100's of years ago... in the long term I think humanity may someday learn, but it is apparent they are not ready for personal responsibility
that is who I think of when I mentally divide "rich" from "wealthy"... the wealthy are the smart ones, these guys however are reviled and treated like disease in the US... sad, it is their habits we should copy not spoiled little brats like athletes... or Paris Hilton
liberals have an especially hard time understanding this concept. They want the government to give everyone money and support the world,
Not this liberal. Don't believe the caricatures of liberals that the right-wing talk-radio pundits paint.
I believe that Social Security should be a safety net of last resort to prevent old people and truly disabled from starving to death. It should not be any kind of comfortable retirement.
It was designed as a pay as you go system (most people think it was designed like an IRA or 401k - it's not - it was pyramid scheme to begin with). The only trouble was that, politically, old people vote, and they have voted that their benefits increase to where many of them get many many times more dollars out of the system than they ever put into the system by virtue of demographics.
The whole privatization of accounts is stupid IMHO. There already exist 401k and IRA options for tax-deferred retirement savings.
The problem is that the tax revenue from Social Security will decrease relative to expenditures making our deficits look as bad as they really are. Our really deficits are masked because the excess of Social Security contributions buying up treasury bills is not counted the same as if the Asian central bankers buying T-bills. The trust fund in T-bills that social security owns really is fine till 2040. But politically, Congress knows that they'll have to start finding new revenue sources or cutting spending as the excess disappears entirely by 2018.
But if giving the Republicans a nonsensical red-herring private account (like going into fscking Iraq to look for al-Qaeda) and further deficits is the cost for providing true fiscally-prudent measures such as indexing benefit increases to prices instead of wages, then so be it.
Most of these following measures hurt me personally from a financial perspective but need to be done: Social security benefits should be means-tested. Also, there should be no $90K limit on taxable income for social security as there is now. And the retirement age should be raised. All of this is hard medicine that will offend one constituency or another, but are the measures that ought to be taken.
I want a true lasting safety net for Social Security that is fiscally prudent. We owe this much to future taxpayers.
The real problem is Medicare, which all the politicians are conveniently ignoring. And the real problem there is that 90% of an individual's Medicare costs are incurred in the last 6 months of life.
Inheritence taxes should be increased (preventing children of "noble birth" from benefitting unfairly and not having to compete like everyone else. Those inheritence taxes should go into paying end of life expenses from Medicare.
Finally, some fraction, progressively pegged to income, of medical expenses should always be paid by the recipient to encourage cost effective medical care. Also, more information about malpractice insurance costs, costs of added test for preventing malpractices suits, actual rankings of doctors including number of successful cases of malpractice (vs industry average) should be made available so people can make informed decisions about health care providers.
"Provided by the management for your protection."
I am from Europe.
Immigration will certainly bring problems to Europe.
Regarding the downfall of critical thinking, there is a rise in religious beliefs and in astrological services and clients. Also the rise of reality TV shows is another factor.
Regarding the 3rd world war, the world is much less safer today than when the Soviet Union existed, simply because back then, the enemies were known. Today, the enemy is unknown, yet holds the same capabilities as the Soviets of yesterday (i.e. chemical and nuclear weapons).
...the social welfare programs that the Republicans want to kill are probably the more effective things that the federal government does. SS generates money for the rest of the government (money that it's not supposed to have - both parties can eat blame for that) and is (according the NYT Magazine article discussed yesterday) running with low overhead. I believe (but don't have the source) that Medicare runs on a 2% overhead, in contrast to the private insurance plans that would replace it which spend about 20% in overhead. The structure of welfare here is screwed up (for that I blame Clinton), and so its fiscal status is only part of the story, but fiscally the programs run better than much of the fed. gov't.
The Republicans' plans to limit federal gov't rest on transferring its roles to the states. Problem is, the states don't seem more efficient than the feds - so transferring the roles to the states doesn't save money (the mailing address just changes). More likely, it provides motive to push services lower because businesses go to low-tax environments. Anecdotally, I live in OH, a state with the worst of both worlds - rapidly increasing taxes with decreasing services - and it will likely have the business base to match. Ultimately, you get businesses to come to low-tax states by giving up the revenue they generate and placing more of the tax on your citizens. You don't create busineeses - they go where they can get educated help, and since education costs money, that's not here. Add to this the desire for states to privatize (meaning the gov't gets the costs and private industry gets the profits) and you get a recipe for disaster. Transferring costs to the states doesn't work unless services fall, but transferring those roles increases their size to the point of the federal government, which creats the free-rider problem (people who want more of the pie beacause they don't care where it comes from).
The Republicans haven't been able to cut spending at the federal level - because to do so would have cost them their vote base. Unless their actual intent is to bankrupt the feds so that they can't do anything (which has been suggested), their actions don't make fiscal sense or seem to lead to small government. Add that Republicans seem to favor putting funds in areas (defense/terrorism) with less oversight (and little public oversight) than most spending this presents a problem for both both the Republican/small gov't and Republican/good fiscal responsibility rhetoric.
P.S. (1st question - amount of deficit spending (not inflation corrected) - probably works as well as a % gov't spending, but FDR might take 1st)