Slashdot Mirror
Sun Says Hardware Will Be Free
ron_ivi writes "Reuters reports that Sun's President and COO thinks hardware will be free and that people will pay for software subscriptions instead. Reuters quotes Schwartz: 'In our world, you will subscribe to the software and the hardware is free.' 'Directionally, our expectation is that in fiscal 2005 you're going to see a rapid departure from selling hardware, software and services apart.' 'Bill Gates and I agree that within four to five years hardware will be free.' We've recently read here on /. how Gates thinks hardware will be free."
First off, notice the apparent lack of any mention of the free software community in the article. Also, remember the difference between gratis hardware (subsidized by publishers of proprietary software as part of the license fees) and Free hardware (the more general purpose, the more Free).
It appears that like video game console hardware subsidized by licensed game sales, the gratis hardware will probably be locked to the particular applications, turning them into the equivalent of appliances. As publishers of proprietary software shift their business model from running on customer-owned hardware to running on hardware rented from the publisher, does this coming "appliance era" spell the end of affordable general-purpose PC hardware for residential use?
I don't think the free market, specially normal consumers, will like subscription based goods. They want to pay once and then own the thing they paid for, not pay all the time they use it. Even if you have to "buy it once again" every few years.
Software will be free and you'll pay for hardware.
too bad they'll be a contract you have to sign ;-)
Send me all the free hardware you want!
As long as they're giving hardware away, I'll take a Cisco CRS-1 router and a Beowulf cluster of GeForce 6800s.
I'll expect to take delivery of this equipment right after my Triphibian Atomicar rolls off the transporter from Swift Enterprises.
Seriously... a couple of years ago, Sun was telling us we'd all be running on glorified VT100 terminals. At what point do these clowns lose all credibility?
He's welcome to send me all the free hardware he pleases.
Sheesh, evil *and* a jerk. -- Jade
Of course they want it to be free. Then they have full justification for a complete and utter lockdown of the hardware via DRM'd BIOS and OS with threats under the DMCA if we try to break it. No true ownership of the hardware by the user is exactly what they want.
Are general computer users going to buy a computer that isn't DRM'd just to use free software? I don't think so. They are going to use what's given to them as part of their OS license fee.
"Run our OS and never have to worry again! Just sign your name right here. The fine print doesn't say anything about selling your soul. Nope, not at all. Right there... That's riiiight."
I don't think high powered hardware will ever be free, but I haven't thought about this that much.
However, I have believed for a long time now that the subsumption of proprietary software by Free software is inevitable.
So asserting that hardware will be free leaves me in a world where I won't have to pay for anything, except support if I want it. Hmmm....
Secession is the right of all sentient beings.
where can i get it for free? I want a 15k multi-domain system :-)
Damia
I think cars will be free too.
We will just pay for gas and service.
I think Sun stock will be "free" too, if you know what I mean.
...didn't Bill Gates say this recently?
But they'd better implement a good Palladium clone if they expect me to pay for software in their free (as in beer) hardware!
It's funny that the same people who decry free software as killing the economic incentive for software development don't feel the same thing applies to hardware.
It's not wasting time, I'm educating myself.
With free hardware, and open source software, I wont have to *IMAGINE* a beowulf cluster, I'll be able to have one!!!
Now onto my plans for world domination!
what if you break the free hardware :x
Sun is saying that people like software better than hardware, so sell them SW, and subsidize the enabling HW. Like everyone else, they envy the phone biz. But without a network of their own, how will they ensure enough people buy the SW, rather than pirate it, to subsidize the HW? If only the computer were the network, they'd have the right position.
--
make install -not war
Didn't we hear this from Sun about 10 years back when they were pushing client-server computing. Look where that got them. Now that serious client-server computing could become a reality, they're going pushing free hardware with another spin on it.
So using the free hardware from Sun/MS and my free OS of choice .. I can have a truly free system.
Now if only the people on my block would let me put up a windmill generator.
nc
Bill Gates and I agree
{ shiver }
<grrr>
What's really funny to me is that M$ on one hand is spending so much time to bash free/open software, yet, on the other, they are going to now say that hardware will be free in the future. To me, this just seems like another stab in the dark for Sun to find a niche.
I know that while I have a dollar (well pound really) I'll pay for my own flaming hardware. Because you know that once they've eased this on us your machine will end up being their machine. And once that happens you can be sure as hell that machine is going to make it difficult to run linux or any other operating system.
No thank you Bill & SUN. I want to pay for my hardware thanks because I actually want to own it. This isn't about choice, it's about fattening the pockets of Sir Bill.
Simon
Actually, BG said that hardware can be seen as nearly free, considering it in relation to other costs.
Quite the difference.
If hardware were truly gratis then I would order myself a Quad Opteron 150 station and the giving party could expect nothing in return (no, hiding costs in other posts doesn't count. "Buy X, get Y for free!" is actually illegal where I live). Of course, that's absurd.
I'd rather buy the hardware and be able to do what I want with it, instead of having to buy software to make it work.
Then again, free hardware = hacking
Back it up. Just a little more... A little more... Perfect!
Now, Honey, don't you think that E15K makes a great replacement for that china cabinet we used to have? And all I had to do was purchase a software license for StarOffice!
Karma: Marginal (mostly due to the border around the website)
Software is easily copied, even with various copy protection schemes. Hardware can't be copied that easily. People are used to only pay for one of the things. So who'll pay for it then?
MS says hardware will be free, IBM says software will be free. I hope they're both right!
Tell me where to take my moving truck in this twisted reality and I'll prove both companies right all day long.
This doesn't sound much different from the early days of computing when you rented the hardware and the software was included in the price. (Not really "free", of course.) We moved away from that method because it tended to create monopolies. How a hardware manufacturer will be able to sell a box when M$ is giving them away "free" will be one of the major challenges of such a "free hardware" method.
I'm sure Microsoft and Sun won't give me a new Netra or XBox if I call them up.
What Schwartz ("Use the schwartz!") and Gates really mean is, "your software fee will include the hardware fee, and you won't really have a choice about that. Plus, we will add restrictions to the hardware, such as DRM. Thank you, come again!"
Napster-to-go says "Fill and refill your compatible MP3 player", which is a lie. It's not MP3. It's WMA with DRM.
Didnt microsoft try this with msn with "free" hardware for a subscription agreement. Too bad some local laws voided this - Id suggest anyone else trying such things get their contract worded correctly and do enough law research to avoid this in the future.
For servers, which the article seems to be based on, it might work but for the high end niche I just don't see it being doable.
Interesting to see Sun justifying Microsoft's monopolistic view that hardware prices can keep coming down because he won't lower the price for his OS.
They're just trying to get people using to pay more for the OS than the hardware. Think about it. You can build a $300 computer, but you will end up paying $280 to run Windows.
They just have to keep in mind that some software will also be free...
With DRM in the bios and computers becoming essentially free appliances will I still be able to tinker in the future?
I always save my last mod point to mod up a good troll. You people are too serious.
they aren't free but they look free when I buy that subscriptiong. Is MS and SUN trying to make computers work like phones? I like owning my hardware thank you.
That's a cheap strategy to make believe that free (as in beer) software would be unsustainable in the future.
It's cheap and ridiculous.
Yes, in the future hardware will be free.
And so will shares of Sun.
Seems like to me they are shooting themselves in the foot. There will be a day when all the guys with money understand. Until then, capitalism will continue to prove Darwin wrong.
Just subsidised.
I'll still be paying for hardware and running Linux / FreeBSD on it. I'm not paying MS or Sun to get someone else's idea of "good enough" hardware at a per-month contract payment.
Remember when you got your phone from Ma Bell for free and a monthly bill? I don't think this will work. People complain all of the time about having to upgrade their PC's every few years, but at least after the initial expenditure the pain wears off. Pay-per-month plans will hurt 12 times a year. No thanks.
I'll be able to visit newegg, get all the computer parts I want for free and then install my fav linux distro? I doubt it.
More then likely the hardware will only run the software when we pay or monthy dues (which they could raise over time, nothing like giving you a year for $99, then after all the data you can't live without is on there, pump the cost up to $99 a month).
No thanks. I'd rather pay a little bit of money and be free to do what I want with a computer then get a free computer and be told what I can do with it.
I'm not sure how this would work exactly...
Surely I could just get my free hardware and write my own free software? Software is considerably easier to write than hardware is to make.
So we can have no competition or freedom of choice, like the crap you get from the cable company or sat providers for "free".
Anyone else squirelling away some hardware and software every year or so, "just in case"?
666-607: 6th floor apartment of the beast
I can see very *CHEAP* computers being free, a'la internet subscriptions like the eMachines and the like were for a long time, but I cannot see good stuff being free. Hardware vendors have a physical thing to manufacture and they must always consume raw materials to produce these things. Therefore unless software subscription services pay the vendors for the hardware, the user still will directly purchase hardware. Of course, either way the hardware is being bought, we just have a new middleman.
I like open source and free software because I can buy any class and kind of machine that I can afford and run software that doesn't cost anything on it. I can go without upgrading for five years if I really want to and if the hardware will meet the needs. I'd rather spend $2000 every few years than shell out a monthly rate and be dependent on whatever crap the subscription service provides.
Do not look into laser with remaining eye.
Those guys are geniuses. Hardware will be free. Software will cost money.
Because making hardware is as simple as typing "cp SunE450 SunE450.2" and making new software requires factories, tooling up, shipping, and maintenance.
I disagree. I think both Microsoft and Sun will become obsolete and useless as they continue to try to trap people into their DRM and obsolete-by-design software while manufacturers of good hardware will continue to make some money, and software will become more and more Libre ("free").
I think that the only money that will come in from software will be from developers and coders that maintain existing Open Source software, and create novel new Open Source software for contract (hourly wages).
But I'm just a lowly DBA, not a forward-thinking visionary overpaid stuffed-shirt like these guys, so by all means, bank your future on their brilliance.
fifth sigma, inc.
This is the same story out of a different mouth. All the large companies (except maybe big blue) keep trying to push this very same idea down our throats. Yeah yeah yeah, We will give you the hardware but the software, licenses and updates are going to cost you the equivalent of two years salary. Lull us with the free offer upfront, then stab us in the wallet later.
Sig temporarily out of service.
'In our world, you will subscribe to the software and the hardware is free.'
I have a better proposal. You give me the free hardware, and I don't subscribe to your software and write my own. Eh, does that violate some law somewhere?
"Backups are for wimps. Real men upload their data to an FTP site and have everyone else mirror it." -- Linus Torvalds
Okay Sun, I'll take ya up on this. Please send me one (no no ... make that TWO) free Enterprise 15000. Enclosed you will find the address to ship these too ... thanks Sun, you're alright!
What the fuck are these morons smoking?
-=-=-
Q: If it takes 10 hours to manufacture and assemble all the parts needed to make one computer, how manyhours does it take to manufacture 100 computers?
A: 1000 hours.
-=-=-
Q2: If it takes 10 hours to deploy all the code needed to make one software service, how many hours does it take to deploy 100?
A2: 10 hours.
-=-=-
The class which has the means of material production at its disposal has control at the same time over the means of mental production, so that thereby, generally speaking, the ideas of those who lack the means of mental production are subject to it. (Marx & Engels: The German Ideology, cited in Curran et al. 1982: 22).
Software will never supecede hardware.
Sun will still want $3 million a year from the medium sized company, for this "subscription" software... but they'll have no true incentive to build decent hardware. The beancounters only see direct revenue, and because of that, hardware will be as cheap as they can get away with.
This has been the case for cell phones for some time - if you purchase a phone with a contract, your initial investment for the handset itself is subsidized by the contract. It's the service that you pay for.
Simple hardware platforms don't lend themselves to incoming revenue. PC's have not been simple for a long time - RAM, disk, video cards, new LAN, USB stuff, etc., but there's got to be a business case for simpler PCs. Selling an expandable PCI chassis to my Dad and 99% of corporate and home users is a waste of resources. Instead, get the price down with a one-size-fits-all product, and then sell him something (service) that turns into a revenue stream...
and then ask him about it in a couple of years when it *hasn't* come true.
Isn't this the same old tired cliche: 'back in the day, they used to give the software away... now it's the other way round!'
And, 'I'm such a perceptive genius, even the richest man in the world agrees with me!'
Nothing new here, move along.
I wonder... If I stop paying my "subscription", will a van will stop by and repo my hardware?
/*drunk.. fix later*/
This makes no economic sense for anyone except for the people selling software.
Software is the cheapest thing to produce in terms of what needs to go into it physically besides R&D. People have to pay whatever (artificially set) price the company sets, as without software, hardware is just a large paper weight.
Hardware, on the other hand, is the more expensive side of the equation: there's only so much profit margin available, as people are only willing to pay a certian amount.
I can see people like him and BG saying "hardware will be free" because that's what they want to see - then there will be more money available for software licenses. This is completely impractical until the massive investment required simply to fabricate hardware is negligible - in other words, it's unlikely to happen anytime within the next 10 years.
If anything, market trends are going the other way entirely. I'm not sure why Sun would be that concerned - they've traditionally had some incredible hardware - but MS has everything to lose in a commodity market.
Sun best stick to their recently-stated purpose of having an Apple-like setup, where they sell the hardware and the OS sales. The OS in use is insignificant, really, IMO - they just need something that works well on their hardware. That might be their OS, and it might be Linux.
~/ssh slashdot.org ssh: connect to host slashdot.org port 22: too many beers
For one simple reason. Hardware's tangible, software isn't. No matter what these guys do, people will always struggle to get their heads round the idea of paying for software, because it doesn't take up space in their room and can be reproduced ad infinitum. Same goes for music, films, etc., and I'd say it always will. If the Suns and Microsofts of the world don't start accepting this and going with the flow, they're sunk.
I mean, here I am working on my PC (which I bought and put together myself) running Gentoo (which I downloaded and didn't pay a brass farthing for). Microsoft sell as many copies of Windows as they do because they bundle them with new hardware. Who do you know who's ever bought a copy of Windows off the shelf? If the PC came out of the factory with no OS and I wanted to put Windows on it, I'd ask around till I found a friend with a pirate copy - there's just no way I'd haul myself to a shop to buy one. Yeah, yeah, I know it's not right, but that's the way it is, and these guys should embrace it instead of fighting it.
Doesn't this kind of go against the business model of selling support for software instead of the software itself... and lets face it if sun decided to give away free workstations to everyone i would quite happily stick *nix on there instead of the undoutably overpriced version i was supposed to buy.
Free hardware + Free software = free computing! Awesome. Microsoft is going to shoot itself straight through the foot with this plan.
We've already got the (mostly) free software part, let them give us the free hardware and we'll be all set. ;)
hmm.. lets see.. sun, who makes hardware and software gets
a few billion from Billy G, who only makes software. Weeks
later Sun proclaims 'hardware will be free, but not software'.
Seems to me more likely the other way around for all but the
most complex (and of limited user based) applications given
the open source movement.
Will the hardware really be "free"? Or will it just be the medium upon which the software is provided (and runs of course)?
If the hardware is actually free, and I own it, then that might not be so bad. I do expect it to be DRM'd to death, and basically only be usable with the software provided.
But if it's not free, and it's merely rented to you (at no charge), then breaking the DRM on your own box will definitely land you in hot water.
Is this the Microsoft method to combating free software? That just seems like a losing battle... I can make unlimited copies of my Linux CDs, but it is physically impossible to "copy" a PC. So yes, they can produce PCs for a very low (marginal) cost, but the marginal cost of a PC will still be many times more than the marginal cost of copying a Linux install CD or disk image.
While support contracts may be one way to make money with free software, and even with proprietary or non-free software, I can't imagine this as anything more than a ploy to force a subscription model and DRM'd hardware down the customers' throats.
That is what sustains this industry. All hardware is free if you wait long enough.
Like most of Gate's predictions.... it's either painfully obvious or he is just plain wrong.
So, does this mean that when my flying car and jetpack *finally* arrive, they'll be free, too?
Can I get a free Cray today?
How about a free car? How much will the subscription service for its software be, I wonder? Or does firmware not count?
Free software *and* free hardware! Yow!
Comrades, paradise on earth is almost here, da!
for by another. Essentially, Sun and Microsoft have announced that they don't think they can come up with the next generation apps (the fully immersive/pervasive computer generation) that will need next generation hardware. Thus, the hardware market will collapse. It's no wonder that Intel has been funding next generation software tech startups so much lately. The other big boys have now announced their intention to cash in on Intel's pie.
So Mr. Schwartz, what colour is the sky in your world?
The earth is flat; the moon is made of cheese; and the sky is falling. Will the insanity ever end!?
Consider someone in 1981 predicting that in 2004 a computer which then costs thousands of dollars would cost just a few thousand dollars. They might be minded to make a similar prediction, but it would miss the point that people in 2004 would not be satisfied with such a computer, and would want something orders of magnitude more powerful.
Today's top of the range PC might be less powerful than something that costs $10 in 10 years, but you can be sure that by then people will want computers vastly more powerful that still cost about the same as today's desktop PCs.
or the microsoft way: all your software are belong to us.
First I wanted to be a chef. Then I wanted to be Napoleon. My ambitions have continued to grow ever since.
The hardware guys say that all software will be free, and the software guys say that one day all hardware will be free.
That isn't surprising. Both sides probably trivalize the aspects of the other side's creation (firmware guys are probably just skitzo and telling themselves they are useless, period.)
Both sides need to realize that their counterparts create important, value-added things that are complicated. A software OS developer can't develop a good CPU (and needs one!) and a hardware designer can't code a great OS (but needs one for his chip!)
Both sides are needed. Intel's CEO had a great interview on ZDNet today, and he basically seems to "get it."
Sun doesn't make any money off of hardware, their cash crop is selling software services.
Those guys need to stand up and smell the roses. hardware will NOT be free because it will take resources to produce it. If you expend resources, you are going to want to recoup those costs by charging the end user for spending time to develop and produce the hardware product.
Software is the part that is easily reproduced, and can easily be made free.
Sun and Microsoft are software vendors (Yeah, Sun makes hardware, but they shouldn't if you ask me). They both make money in the software, so it is in their best interest to spin their technology the way that makes them the most money, even if that is pulling the wool over the eyes of their customers.
Why read the article when I can just make up a snap judgement?
The hardware will NOT be free. The cost will simply be rolled into the price of the software. This is simply a marketing ploy to try and lock people into non-open hardware with cheap up front costs that just keep repeating over and over.
It's not gonna work, but I'm sure Sun and Microsoft are gonna try anyway.
--- It is not the things we do which we regret the most, but the things which we don't do.
You mean the thing you can copy perfectly at zero cost an inifite number of times is going to be the thing you pay for, yet the super-complex physical object is the one that will be free?
I'm sorry, I dont buy it.
You can _offer_ that, but I dont think it will take off. I believe the potential was there, but right now open source software is on a roll. Firefox being the frontrunner.
With the upcoming economic crunch (due to raising gas prices) people are going to be cutting corners everywhere. Getting used hardware and running free software on it is a friggin _fantastic_ low cost method of running your server/office client/game machine/whatever.
no
I'll take their free hardware and run my free software on it.
Lol, good luck to them on that. it's all I've got right now, it's early afternoon and I'm burnt :)
Ubuntu- Linux for human beings.
then this means you're simply going to pay 700 for a computer, the hardware will be free... but the "software" costs 700. riiiiight.
basically it's a ploy to lock people into operating systems.
if you buy software and the computer comes with it, what does this mean for linux? it means it becomes compulsory to buy linux to get a computer, therefore making linux cost money, therefore eliminating a major different between windows and linux.
then windows can say "hey, look, linux costs just as much!", the only difference being that windows will come ON computers, whereas linux still won't.
you don't understand this post, i barely do, it's too complicated, i don't know what i wrote, maybe it makes sense, but i doubt it.
Much like the locked down nature of consoles.
-I am an elective eunuch.
Is it just me or is Sun a bit too chummy with M$ these days? Sounds to me like Linux has taken away a good chunk of UNIX (Solaris) market share and is now threatening M$ desktop share, so now Sun and M$ are letting bygones be bygones and *not exactly* working in concert to trounce Linux.
Looking at it logically: if hardware is 'free' (or nearly so) the only way to make money is on the software, either by subscription, by initial purchase, on services layered on top of the software/hardware, or some combination. This is all fine and dandy in the 'normal' world where people wander down to a store and buy a Windows PC or a Mac.
Look at it from the Open Source point of view - on the scale of these corporations, there's little money to be made on subscriptions without them being expensive (read: unpopular) subscriptions (eg: the redhat network has just become a lot more expensive...) so all that's left is services. It seems to me that IBM have pretty much everything going for them in that market: worldwide cover, experience, brand name, and expertise. So that's a no-no too.
Whoops, "we"'ve run out of ways to make money - so large subscription-based companies are going to look upon the OS world as nasty competition (can't be bought, can't easily be bribed - some sod will fork the code if you do, and it's at least as good as the proprietary offerings, not to mention free). Cue drum rolls, thunder and lightning, cry havoc and let loose the dogs of war!
It's going to be interesting. Patents will play out their part of course, Linux/just-about-anything will infringe on loads of patents, but we may still have IBM in our corner over that one - they've several thousand employees who work on linux for IBM, which is a significant investment... If a 400lb gorilla decides to screw you, the thing to do is befriend a decidedly asexual 800lb gorilla... Thanks IBM.
Simon
Physicists get Hadrons!
So the whole world will do something like subscribe to America Online, they'll ship you this box that you plug into your TV and bam you're on the internet. Hmm how many have failed that route?
I highly doubt I'm going to pick up the latest copy of HalfLife and it's going to come with a Uber pc along with it. We'll it could if it the game maker charged me 2 grand to buy the game.
When pigs fly people!
I remember back when DVDs were new, they had to compete with Divx discs. The difference, DVDs were expensive, but you paid once and owned it, Divx was cheap, but you had to pay each time you watched it... This seems like a good analog to this debate, and time has already shown how a market responds to subscription based technology goods. How many people ran out to buy the new divx disc of "Return of the King"? - ZT
The want to give us free hardwarre because that way they can incorporate features like PALLADIUM and we will loose total control of our computer and our computers will become cable TV boxes where everything is pay per use. Email, web browsing, games etc. That means a major victory over open source because when people are given the option of free hardware that is kept upto date with the technology over the option of buying hardware every few years more people will go with the former option. Sounds hard to believe doesn't it but when M$ is behind it anything can happen.
The basic conflict in computing today is that users want to buy something, turn it on, get work done, and not deal with the vendor again. Think of this as the "Wal-Mart model". Vendors want an "ongoing relationship" involving regular payments from the customer. Think of this as the "cell phone" model.
Now that everybody in the developed world who has any need for a computer already has one, it's all replacement business. This is driving vendor profitability through the floor. They've reduced warranties on disk drives, delivered software that requires constant patching, and come out with machines in multiple case colors. But it's not working.
Customers hate the cell phone model of business, where the vendor has you under their thumb. Absent a monopoly situation, it doesn't sell. Sun is in no position to monopolize anything. So they can want this, but it's not going to happen.
If you want to visualize the future of computing, imagine a boot stepping on a face, forever.
Glad to see that wishful thinking still has a place in the corporate world. Next ad: "The Network IS SO The Computer!"
sulli
RTFJ.
It all sounds so good... free hardware.
Of course, the real motivation is to get rid of cheap, general purpose hardware that runs software from a competitor, or even FREE software.
This is a direct attack on consumer choice and should be decried for what it is, not glorified as a consumer benefit.
Hardware will be free...
...because it'll be assembled in sweatshops
...no one except Apple fanatics are willing to pay for good hardware anymore
...with 3 proofs of purchace from Cocoa-Puffs! We're koo koo for cocoa puffs! (Some restrictions apply. Void where prohibited)
...as in freedom, not beer. Here are the specs, good luck modifing our $10,000 hardware! (Warranty will be void if seal is broken)
...because our hardware is crap these days.
...when you pry it from my cold, dead hands!
...and our new slogan is, "Compute free or die!"
1)
2)
3)
4)
5)
6)
7)
I'll think of some more later.
man I hope so, Hardware is so much harder to download for free.
~ All comments automatically moderated -1 since 2004 ~
Now lets take PC gamers. There's a market now, when most PC's come with a 3D card, I don't see that changing soon, unless M$ buys out the big vidcard manufacturers. Then others will crop up. Sorry don't see that happening either.
Now lets take DVD players. Well, the current model is working, sell DVDs, sell DVD players. Is the MPAA suddenly going to say, "Don't buy that player, let US buy it for you!" Okie dokie.
Sounds like someone is trying out for a position as Bill's proctologist.
Drop me a line at:
Key ID: 0x54D1D809
Whether they lock all of the hardware into their software, switch to centralized computing services, or simply require software contracts to buy computers, the boatloads of cheap computers available now for open source computing will disappear unless open source takes off on the client before then. The commodity computer manufacturers have to chase the bulk market. If they don't have markets well into the millions, they can't make it.
Subject says it all...
There will be attempts, like Sun and MS, to have subscription-based apps and supplied hardware. The hardware and software will be succeeding edge, not leading edge. I see this as the path for businesses mostly, and some home users that get their internet bundled w/apps and a free (or cheap computer). Since most businesses today are concerned about cost over benefit if their hardware upgrades happen from and are supported by their app vendors then most of their apparent IT infrastructure (OS/app/hdwe support) will be hidden in the vendor costs. A second tier will be the innovators - businesses that create new technology (and their disciples) to be eventually passed to the masses. A third tier will be the disruptors, who will not abide by forced upgrades and constant payment schedules. This tier is most likely the home of most Open Source projects (with some in the innovators group), IMO (I am not humble!!!).
blakespot
-- Heisenberg may have slept here.
iPod Hacks.com
The class which has the means of material production at its disposal has control at the same time over the means of mental production, so that thereby, generally speaking, the ideas of those who lack the means of mental production are subject to it. (Marx & Engels: The German Ideology, cited in Curran et al. 1982: 22).
Software is ideas, it will never supercede hardware.
I could easily see a future where if you subscribe to Microsoft products for a year, you get a free PC. PCs are dirt cheap anyway.
The question is not whether or not it's possible or feasible. The question is whether Joe Consumer will go for it? There are already a fair number of things that a consumer licenses instead of owning (DRM music, etc). And it works largely because Joe Consumer is ignorant of the details and relies on the companies to tell him why what they're doing is a good idea.
But once it starts leaving the high-tech market and hitting closer to home, there's more pushback. I'll cite everyone's favorite example of DivX (the players, not the codec). Buy a movie but you only get to watch it a set number of times? Yeah, that worked real well. I'm not convinced giving away the players would have fixed that. Disposable self-destructing DVDs crapped out for the same reason, and for environmental reasons. Why? Because people were used to buying DVDs (and, before that, VHS tapes) and owning them, and playing them as many times as they wanted until they broke or the dog ate them, or whatever. And when someone comes along and says "Sorry, you now need to pay to watch this", they say "Um, no."
Consumers have been used to purchasing and owning computers and owning software (yeah, yeah, it's licensed, we know, but so are videotapes technically - 'Licensed for Private Home Viewing' - and we still talking about 'owning' them). So there might be a fair bit of pushback. However, consumers are equally pissed off at their hardware and software becoming obsolete so frequently. So they might just pull this off if it's plugged as the solution to constant upgrading. Time will tell.
There is no sig, there is only Zuul.
Put your money where your mouth is. Hook me up with a new Blade Server for free. I could use one for my small biz.
blog |
The difference will be the difference between taking the Bus or trolley, and driving your car. The bus is convenient if you like it, but it does not have cup holders or corrinthian leather seats. For that you need to go to apple and buy the ibus.
this suggests that in the end only sony and apple will be the niche luxury hardare vendors.
It's sort of ironic that some people think that music will be nearly free and you will buy the players and some people think the players will be free and you will subscribe to the music. Which is it slashdotters? make up your minds.
Even if this comes to pass, that software is what you subscribe too, I suspect apple will make the transition. NeXT had a go at this and had a limited success. But they were starting with a death spiraling product that had no established base. Apple has people who want apples software. So they will have the subscribers even if they have to give away the hardware.
of course they will have to charge you more than $100 per OS upgrade.
thus what it comes down to is economies of scale, standards compliance, and the willingness of your niche subscribers to pay a premium. On the one hand one has MS which has the economy of scale and flouts standards as a competative tactic. and ont he other one has Apple which knows how to create products and create standards that people really want. In the middle SUN has none of these attributes except in a very niche area of sun fanatics.
Some drink at the fountain of knowledge. Others just gargle.
I'd like to give these big names some benefit of the doubt, but I'm having an extremely hard time doing so...
Hardware is a physical tangible item, produced by people and machines, the product of (usually) years of development and testing... Each item has a cost and uses up materials.
Software is just data, still the product of people, using machines, but theres no per-item production costs for digital distribution, and for normal distribution it's no different than audio cd's/dvd's, one unique master set of data gets duplicated...
Traditionally software was bundled with hardware, and I can't think of a realistic application that could succeed as a software package with bundled hardware.
They can't mean that hardware will be no-strings-attached free, handed out on street corners, no value what-so-ever...
Hardware cost is meaningless to me. I rationalize this by saying "I drive my car 40 minutes a day on average, and I use a computer 10 hours a day on average. My car costs 26k, the computer 3k." I could build an insanely godlike system for less than 3k, well worth it if you ask me.... I can install it using entirely free software, linux, openoffice, firefox, etc.
What in the hell are these people talking about?!
As you won't OWN the hardware it's just spin claiming that it is free.
This is an attempt to return to the old IBM leasing method where you never owned anything but paid IBM huge amounts of money anyway.
PCs are not cell phones, and to be honest, I think many people would be more than willing to pay for their cell phones if it meant that this absurd concept of "minute plans" died a sudden and painful death. The personal computer is a device people can see and feel. It is propery, and no matter how revolutionary and great Windows may eventually become, the owner of a PC is the person who wants to decide what will happen to their computer and how it will be used.
I feel a bit of truth in what Sun and Microsoft is saying, but ONLY when it applies to enterprise computing. A solution that is uniform and just works across the organization is far more valuable than managing hardware purchases and having to put together a coherent IT strategy. In that way, the cost of future workstation PCs will be far more transparent, much in the same way that a corporate cell-phone plan makes a lot of sense to certain organizatgions rather than a mix-and-match network created by the employees.... still, neither work indivudal PC users at home. And, I hope, it never will.
2. Run Linux.
3. Watch Microsoft and Sun dissappear or become miniscule custom software houses.
Their only way out is DRM, because regardless of propoganda and new legislation, software will always be free to copy, hardware will always involve labor to make. However no DRM can ultimately technically succeed.
"I don't know that atheists should be considered citizens, nor should they be considered patriots." George HW Bush
Infinium Labs is way ahead of Bill and Schwartz. But as we, all know the Phantom was built "By Gamers, For Gamers(c)", so this is not wholly unexpected. :)
Hardware is already free. Afterall, if I subscribe to Verizon DSL as a new user, I get a free wireless broadband router. And about a year ago I bought several ink cartridges from CDWG and got a free gameboy advance. In fact, the amount of hardware available for free (after rebates) is quite surprizing, really.
They're completely twisting the language here, which is nothing new. They don't mean free as in speech, or free as in beer (gratis) what they mean is the price will be hidden in the software price. You'll be paying as much or more, they just won't itemise it or offer the hardware for honest sale.
So you'll get a software 'subscription' and the hardware to run it on in a single package, totally locked in.
No one in their right mind would sign up for this without huge, unsustainable bribes and/or being taken in by confusing double-talk and deception. I expect they'll be trying to use both in spades to get a stranglehold on the market, then make it back in rent once they have that. But it seems unlikely they'll succeed, thankfully. One more desperate attempt to try and lock competition out of the market.
=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-
Friends don't let friends enable ecmascript.
We went through this once before with Ma Bell. You didn't own your phone, you rented it from the phone company, who could futz with it whenever and however they wanted. They also had no incentive to ever upgrade it. My parents still have an ancient phone in their kitchen that is owned by the phone company, even though legally they are required to let you connect your own phone.
Now, these companies want to do the same with computers. You don't own anything, you merely rent it as part of a service contract. Car companies want you to lease a car, rent an apartment...
HELL NO! When possible, you always want to own your stuff instead of leasing it. For one thing, its financially more advantageous. (Take good care of it, and the cost over its lifetime is lower.) For another, it gives you equity for loans and other transactions. For another, it frees you of the control of the leasing party.
Me: You know, I want to try some different software that MS doesn't offer in their archive.
MS: OK, fine, give us your computer back.
Me: What? No way, dude, all of my personal files are on here.
MS: Gee, sucks to be you. Guess you're stuck giving us money just to read your own data. Neener neener!
And that's just one example. The only compromise point I could see would be the way mobile phone companies subsidize the cost of a mobile phone with a service agreement, but that's a "lease to buy" arrangement at best. When it's over, that is YOUR phone by law, and even before that it's still your phone, you just have to pay an early termination fee and the phone is still yours. MSN used to do that with low-end PCs before they realized that no one wanted it.
Live Free. Own your life. Own yourself.
--GrouchoMarx
Card-carrying member of the EFF, FSF, and ACLU. Are you?
I mean I knew sales were down, but do you have to give it away? Sounds like a last ditch attempt to increase Sun market share. Also I recall another prediction by Sun about how we would all be running Java apps on thin client terminals...
Step 1: Sun gives out hardware for free with Microsoft and Sun proprietary software
Step 2: Large numbers of businesses, who would pay for software anyway, get new free great DRM hardware.
Step 3: These same large businesses now throw out all of their old, non-DRM, non-Compatible hardware.
Step 4: Geeks like us go dumpster diving in a sea of free hardware.
Step 5: Install OSS on free hardware.
Step 6: ?
Step 7: Profit!!!!!
SJW: a person who perceives an injustice, and while correcting it, commits a greater injustice.
The history folks would claim someone took Gates' comments out of [time] context.
Back in the days of their first machine & tinkering around, it's been said they were trying to decide whether to go the hardware or software route. They decided hardware would eventually be so inexpensive it would be difficult to make a profit; i.e., a good business; so they decided to go the software route.
That's supposed to have happened not long before they made a deal with IBM to offer|license what would become DOS without a product in hand. They then offered a guy who had a DOS-like program $50'000 and waited on the response. (we know how that turned out)
Imagine what would have happened if (1) IBM insisted upon purchasing the product instead of licensing it; or (2) the guy who wrote DOS had turned down the offer?
Wait... It really isn't. I've been watching both companies along with some other ones in the industry. Some number of years ago, an SGI guy presented to me and some other folks their plan to make a comeback in the industry. It was essentially "Compete with IBM." Well that's great, but unless you can sufficiently differentiate yourself from IBM, you're going to get your clock cleaned. I'm seeing the exact same story out of Sun. IBM does everything you do, better than you do it. Why should I buy from you? Riddle me this.
Now allow me to digress for a moment. I was playing chess with my sister's son a while back. One thing that struck me as I played against him was that he thought that by coming up with some gimmick or odd move, he could win the battle on a psychological front. As if his moving his knights out before anything else would somehow throw off my strong defense in the center. Sun and other hardware companies seem to be casting around for the gimmick that will help them win in the industry rather than building a strong core business on their unique qualities. If you're going to compete with IBM and Dell, you'd damn well find your strengths and play to them. And you'd better do it fast because IBM and Dell aren't going to wait around forever while you figure it out.
I'm trying to teach myself to set people on fire with my mind... Is it hot in here?
I wouldn't rely on predictions from people whose company stock went dramatically down, and still doesn't show any sign of recovery. If they were really that smart to foresee things in 5 years from now, why didn't they prevent their company from going into the red in the past?
just my 2 cents
As soon as Microsoft includes a machine that meets the recommended specs to run Windows XP as part of the $189 purchase price, I'll buy a copy of XP. Until then... no dice.
"In our world, you will subscribe to the software and the hardware is free."
Read my lips : FROM MY COLD, DEAD HANDS, BICCHES!
the preceding comment is my own and in no way reflects the opinion of the Joint Chiefs of Staff
1. Hardware is "free", software costs money. Analogy would be the cable TV box. You get the box for free, but you pay for the software (programming).
2. Hardware costs money, software is "free". Example would be broadcast media (broadcast TV, radio).
Guess which one the conglomerates like? (hint: 1).
Only time will tell which model succeeds.
Unlike the TV/Radio industry, the content in the computer world can be created by anyone (hence the FLOSS movement). This would seem to tip the balance in favor of #2.
Unless, of course, suitable laws can be passed... and seeing how apathetic the voters are ("look! over there!! shiny things!!!"), it is only a matter of time before writing software becomes encumbered with patents, licensing (i.e. software professionals will have to be "certified"), etc., thereby tipping the balance in favor of #1 above.
Having software "subscriptions" makes it sound very much like lock-in. People do not like lock-in at all.
Once people notice their "free" Microsoft computer doesn't run anything but non-free Microsoft software, the free hardware novelty will rub off.
... that free hardware doesn't become mandatory, or even commonplace. We certainly need to avoid a situation where it is difficult for nerds like us to build whatever machine we'd like. I certainly prefer my Radeon 9800 Pro to the TNT I would likely have in my crap-tacular machine right now if it was free...
OK, if hardware IS free, why SUN is charging
its customers 400$ for a CDROM drive?
Imagine it this way... You first pay a massive deposit for the software that comes with the hardware you want. A requirement of the licensing agreement is that the system remains connect to it's owner. Each month you get a bill from MS/Sun for the number of CPU cycles you used and the amount of storage you used on the 'free' hardware. Even better, you will have to feed power and cooling to a maxed out box that is restricted by the bios to only allow partial use. You can licence more power on demand :-) Sounds great! NOT! Just keep those bills coming.
Look at how many people lease thier car even though is very rarely a good idea.
People don't want choice or quality; they want to be spoon fed.Free Mac Mini Yeah, it's
Hell, if you like, you could say my PDA was free -- I just had to buy WindowsCE. It's all in how you look at it, and if the software is married to the hardware then which are you paying for, the hardware or the software?
I can sure see the software folks dreaming that, in the future (thanks to DRM), you'll pay through the nose for a subscription to software we buy outright today, making the hardware portion virtually free. But that doesn't mean the public is going to fall for this. In an era where Office 97 is all most people need, and OOo is delivering more functionality for free if you'll take the time to learn a slightly different interface, why would anyone pay Microsoft for a subscription to Office 2006? Unless your new Dell will only run Office 2006 -- in which case, the Dell damn well better be free if Gates expects Dell's customers to send him money every month just to keep using their computers.
Not me.
If all this should have a reason, we would be the last to know.
The fact that Sun can't sell hardware does not mean it will be free.
At least you will be able to get it for next to free on the auction block after Sun goes bankrupt. :)
The only thing that will stop you from fulfilling your dreams is you. - Tom Bradley
Thanks you for choosing Microsoft.Please choose from one of the following:
1. Windows XP Home on PII-233 with 32MB RAM $20/month
2. Windows XP Home on PIII-500 with 64MB RAM $30/month
3. Windows XP pro on PIV-2.8Ghz with 128MB RAM $100/month
4. *To option 3 add $10 for every extra 0.1Ghz(Max 2.8Ghz) and $5/MB of RAM(max 4Gb).
WARNING - Recommended minimum PIV-2.0Ghz with 128Mb RAM. For watching videoes 512Mb of RAM is recommended.
Thats great news, our multi-million business built almost entirely on hardware is going to have 0 operating costs...wahooo profit for us! We wrote all our own software. Strangely none of our directors have seen this comming despite including PhDs in Electronic engineering, 3 computer science Masters and a professor of Economics to hand. We just completely missed the obvious FACT that hardware is quite suddenly going to be free.
Jeeeeeeeezuz, the unmitigated crap some assholes speak, and the slashdot idiots who post it as news. Or is this Sun fella an American? Seems to be a lot of it going about over there.
I can't wait until Microsoft gives me my 5GHz computer to run Longhorn.
right. and using the ol' car/computer analogy, we should all be getting our complimentary H2s any day now.
-gary
I doubt they will be giving away hardware independent of the software. It's the equivalent of saying "free water" and charging $5 for the cup with a "no cup without water" policy.
-- "You can lead a yak to water, but you can't teach an old dog to make a silk purse out of a pig in a poke" - Opus
Sun is already going after this with their JES system which will be a subscription based model that pays for all the consulting and software. Might as well throw in the hardware too and get the customer.
They've already started this. You can get a v20z (dual opteron) server for free when you agree to license their software stack for three years.
It makes sense in big companies. Computing power is becoming more of a utility. Just like you don't pay for your cell phone (in many cases), your water meter, your gas or electric meter, your hardware can be free. It is a viable way of doing things. Sun just has to ramp up it's software and consulting side to make it work. Their Java Enterprise System is pretty good and affordable compared to other solutions so if they can get more momentum for it, things will look good.
I don't think it will kill the home user pc market and you'll most likely be able to still buy computers, it will most likely be a very attractive option for companies that want it.
Open Source Java DAO Generator
I think they have it backwards: Software will be free and hardware will cost money.
Well, maybe not. I'm sure I have all the elements of a computer in my backyard; silicon, germanium, copper, etc. I guess that counts as free. I'm not going to subscribe to software. If I want it, I'll find it. If it doesn't exist, I might code it myself. I'm reliant on hardware, because I can't make my own motherboard. But I can make any application I wanted.
Is it me or do Schwartz and Gates have their inflated heads firmly implanted in their rectums? Here's a clue guys: We don't need your software.
I'm in the hole of the broadband donut.
I seem to recall a time where you didn't own the telephone in your house either, but the phone company gave you one with your subscription. Anyone know how&why that model changed?
This looks alot like the idea behind the game consoles; sell the console for little money, then sell them games to make money of it.. Atleast that's what I guess.. Someone said that they would have more control over software through hardware using DRM.. that's the same principle for game consoles.. "We" managed to get linux working on that one didn't we? :)
He's very confused, evil or misquoted. Hardware already is a commodity but commodities still cost money, just like corn, wheat and other honest stuff. It's shocking that someone at such a high level of a firm that excels in hardware design would have failed to notice that. Once can only conclude that Schwartz has decided to collude with Microsoft in their mad attempt to eliminate free software.
Sun is doomed. The traditional commercial software development process ran out of steam twenty years ago. Proprietary software can not compete with free software and those who cling to it will be swept away. Schwartz is going to run Sun into the ground. I really hope Schwartz was misquoted, but that does not seem to be the case.
Friends don't help friends install M$ junk.
Due to competition in hardware design and marketing, manufacturers and vendors are forced to streamline and cut costs to attain the highest effeciency possible, altho they will never be 'free' (unless subsidized by something else) - whereas due to the legal copyright monopoly phenomena, software vendors are able to charge confiscatory rates, operate very sloppy, ineffecient operations while legally preventing any competition from honing in on their protected 'market'.
During the 'gold rush' years of personal and 'minicomputing' some companies made small fortunes, but those rich veins eventually play out - even customers 'locked in' get wise to their situation and start seeking better value deals - customers instinctively hate single vendor solutions, it's anti freemarket/capitalist in my opinion, and fight back. In the end, customers will seek out the best value for the buck, and the companies that deliver it will get the business.
try { do() || do_not(); } catch (JediException err) { yoda(err); }
Apple owned the desktop market in the 80s and got beat down by the new guy named Billy Gates. IMHO, now they are the niche player catering to fanatics.
Meanwhile Sun has a pretty good grasp on the large scale server market that Microsoft thinks it has products for (but doesn't) and Apple can barely comprehend. Bare in mind that I don't like Sun, Solaris, or much of what they do... but reality is reality, and no amount of head_in_sand and dreams of Apple computers in every home will change that.
perl -e 'print $i=pack(c5, (41*2), sqrt(7056), (unpack(c,H)-2), oct(115), 10)'
As the price of hardware falls, the percentage of that price allocated to software increases. If hardware was the problem, Linus Torvalds would be using fabricating chips in his bathtub.
Nobody bought the "Net PC" because the only component it eliminated was the hard disk, and those were cheap and getting cheaper by the minute. It required bandwidth (and lots of it) to be effective. In the end, the bandwidth was a bigger problem than the hard disk ever was. And of course there is the trust factor. At the time, MS and AOL were the two least trusted companies in America. And we are depending on software and IP bandwidth instead of a cheap hard drive? No thanks.
"Software as a service" remains a solution in search of a problem. This is an attempt to emulate the cellular phone business model. The phones are essentially free, but you pay for a service that amortizes the cost of the phone over a year or two. In the beginning, phones were very expensive, and theft would have killed the industry if people started getting mugged and losing their $500 phones. Today, the hardware is much cheaper, but people still tolerate the cellular business model because they can switch carriers when their contract is up. Even before they had number portability, it was not such a big deal to switch providers. Just try and migrate to somebody else's PC software service. It's hard enough [for the average person] to switch NOW, and that's before the dreaded DRM lockdown.
Yes, last year you could have bought some other companies hardware for $10,000.00 and then licensed our software for $5,000.00....this year if you buy our software at $15,000.00 you will get the software AND this FREE piece of hardware. (fine print reads: This hardware is probably more expensive, and of lower quality then some other companies hardward)... Bleh... MAYA also linked hardware (PC card) to their software...like that wasn't circumvented -A
I mod down so you can mod up. Your welcome.
I have just recently had a long conversation on this very debatable topic. Frankly I see no justifiable reason for the home user to do so, and even less reason for the 'gamer'. I do think the idea has a limited utility in the business market, but that about sums it up. I commonly upgrade my hardware every 3-6 years (I have had 5 computers since 1990, but the fifth is only a few months old. If I am using Word 5.x, I have paid for it, and I receive the utility I need, why should I continue to pay for something 12 years old?
Ross Winn "not just another ugly face..."
You still have to pay sun some bucks to get a Sunfire 15k, I don't care how free it is. There will never be a day when a sunfire 15k will show up on my doorstep for free. NEVER. Perhaps I can access the *computing power* of the machine for free, given that I already have a software subscription. But again, I am paying for the hardware by paying for the software. Either way, someone gets paid. If a SF15k came free with some software, everyone would just get the software, then use the machine for other stuff.
stuff |
this looks like a step in the right direction. ;-)
I just wonder where Microsoft and Sun see their business model here.
There's a big problem with software-services, and that is that the consumer doesn't feel like they're getting the same "value" (whatever that is) that they get when they have something they can hold in their hands. With hardware, you can usually repurpose it, but with software, you feel like you're held hostage and we know that companies sometimes stop support (DOS, QuickBASIC, J#) if not disappear altogether. Even though alternate guide services exist, I like TiVo's, but feel secure by TiVo's policies toward [friendly] hackers.
...what changed? The fact that I'm walking out of the store holding something I *perceive* to put value in. I can see the TiVo box. I can't see the service.
Witness TiVo, by far the best piece of consumer electronic to come along in a long while. To get the full value, you need to buy a TiVo box -and- get a lifetime subscription. Now, pretend you're standing in BestBuy in the TiVo section and you're looking at price tags.
Alternate Universe #1: Buy a TiVo box for $50 and purchase the lifetime service for $450. How do you feel? (Personally, I wonder why the box is so cheap and how long they'll stay in business.)
Alternate Universe #2: Buy a TiVo box for $450 and purchase a lifetime service for $50. How do you feel? (Now, I feel like getting several boxes.)
Incidently, this is why a $250 box with $250 service causes so many consumers to sit there and ponder about making the plunge. (You should. -ed.)
The point being that free hardware is perceived as cheap hardware, even if it isn't. We also know, free hardware gets repurposed. (Witness the Cue:CAT barcode readers.)
No, if I'm going to have to pay for software, I want it to be like Apple's model for OS X -- everytime an update comes out, I *want* to shell out cash to get the new, _stable_, features that breath new life into my system.
I do NOT want to have to deal with the hassle of license codes.
As for me, sell me the hardware -- give me the software.
Software is already free (any kind of free) and they say hardware will "also" free... some shops say shipping is free...
I don't get where the money will come.
Come on, this just to confuse people, nothing else.
For your "Average Joe Computer User" or "Joe Corporate Guy", this might be fine. My Mom would obviously benefit from this, but for power users and hardware enthusiasts, this is doesn't make sense. Big corporations may be ok too as you don't need much to run Microsoft Office really.
The high-cost of hardware components like top end video cards, for example, is what drives profits for the manufacturers, sells games, and continues to press the envelope of tech forward. It also seems to be the hallmark of the true computer geek. Who's going to go to a LAN with a "free" rig and would it actually play anything decent? ... Sheesh, that'd be like having an "all Playstation" LAN (shudders).
Computers aren't like cell phones or XBoxes ... if you take what "they" give you for free, it's going to be junk. Furthermore, I can imagine the chaos that would ensue when hackers get their hands on this stuff. Hardware hacks (chipmods and stuff) go deeper underground and the software AND hardware companies lose even more money.
With free hardware, it will only be $699 for a kick-ass Linux workstation!
One of the principles of free software is that I should be able to hack up my hardware however I want. Sun is making an end run around this.
If I rent hardware from Sun, it's not my hardware. Just like my landlord says I can't paint my apartment, Sun would have every right to say "this is *our* hardware; you can only run software we approve on it."
This is part of the ongoing struggle to make all individual computer users consumers only.
All's true that is mistrusted
Intel announces software, not hardware will be free.
Opus: the Swiss army knife of audio codec
I was a freshman in Computer Science at the
University of Maryland in 1981.
In the UK phone rental used to be around five pounds a quarter.
Seeing as basic phones cost about 10 pounds, the new model is definitely in the customer's favour.
Actually sounds like a money spinner for the phone companies! Surprising this doesn't happen any more... perhaps people just wanted better phones and weren't taking up the rental option.
Yours Sincerely, Michael.
This is just the latest in a series of "business models" which cost jobs and waste capital.
Television programming is a good example. Although it might cost close to $10 million to develop a 26-episode series, television networks consider it an insult if they are asked to actually pay for it. They want it free and expect the producers to make up the millions of dollars in lost value and lost revenue through sales of DVDs, merchandise or something similar.
There are literally hundreds of products which can no longer be sold at retail because their competition is either free (read valueless) or sold at a loss.
Well, at least in those markets where there is actually competition.
Business isn't willing to pay for products, innovation and careers, so we get brands, mortgage commercials and layoffs.
If I write what is just so obvious about this I will get modded -1 troll. Then I will have to come back and write another response asking, what does /. expect when posting such a story?
Check it out:
http://developers.sun.com/offers/jedevpromo/
You buy a 3 years subscription at 1500 per year, and they "give" you a "$7000" server.
Excuse me, but for that same $4500, I would rather buy an XSERVE.
I was very young at that time, but I think consumers got fed up with the situation where they could only have one phone in the entire house, or had to pay hefty monthly fees for additional phones. I believe this spurred the government to change the law so that property owners owned the lines inside their houses (previously, Ma Bell owned the actual wiring, even though it was inside your walls!), and could purchase their own phones if they wanted.
That worked so well with that deal Billy had with BestBuy and some other retailers, where you got $400 worth of hardware for indentured servi^H^H^H^H^H subscription to MSN...
I can assure you, the best way to get rid of dragons is to have one of your own.
I don't think you can compare this to the whole cell phone industry.
There's 1 HUGE difference that you guys are forgetting about. When you buy a cell phone, you already expect, (and can't use without) a subscription to a cell phone carrier. So it's already expected you're going to be paying someone $$$/mth for the cell phone service itself. In that case, why not go for the free phone?!
Shift over to computers. Most people don't think you're even suppose to buy software. They think the cost is in the hardware. They buy a computer and then just download or copy the software. Try convincing those people that now instead of that model, you're just gonna pay us $$$/mth instead for the rest of your life. That's a lot harder than it sounds. They're going to be wondering what it is they're paying per month that they already couldn't get for free before!
AirSpeak - http://itunes.com/apps/AirSpeak
Lots of others think this is a viable business model as well. The Phantom video game console will be offered for free with a software subscription.
If Microsoft and Sun think that hardware will be free, shouldn't every single hardware manufacturer (from the smallest peripherals on up) be writing drivers for Linux, commoditizing the software before the software makers commoditize the hardware?
;)
More than it already is, I mean.
That's an interesting question.
The answer seems easy, no, they won't bother. Someone else mentioned cell phones and that's a good example of how this will work. Why bother to go get those? Your subscription fee will already have paid for the device many times over. No one else will want your used equipment and it will cost money to collect. Because the software is not free (libre), they can turn a remote kill switch and make it useless to you so that you have to purchase another one. If you refuse to mail the hardware back to them at your cost, you will be charged some absurd fee as per your contract. No repo van required.
Friends don't help friends install M$ junk.
Look, SUN gives away a free Sunbox to you and you subscribe to their monthly Java Desktop service wich is, as everyone knows, essentially just Linux. How would this affect the GPL? Is this legal? From what I gathered it is legal, so Sun might have found a loophole in the GPL that they are trying to exploit. What do you think?
First and foremost condition would be that all computers would be the same configurations. While the idea of "appliancizing" computer hardware would be wonderful for the consumer in the long run it's counterproductive. Software is more complex than say a television broadcast. While the thematic content may vary amongst shows, the medium conforms to all TV sets nationwide. NTSC or PAL is the format and there's no straying. Enhancements are only allowed for audio, and now HD is becoming more commonplace; however, new hardware must be purchased to take advantage of the new innovations.
Which brings me to my second point, the lack of true innovation. Software writes will become more or less problem solvers than true code writers where the sky's the limit. By problem solvers I'm referring to the need to find work arounds all the limitations of the hardware to perform whatever the desired task is. Computer configurations change and improve like the wind, but without innovations and improvements, not only in speed, but connectivity etc., we are forced to stagnate. By all theoretical laws we should've maxxed the computing potential power of silicon, yet we still see improvements.
We need forward thinking companies to push the envelope. The elements of design and function are integral to progress of computing. Without invention, originality and breakthroughs we the consumers are doomed to stagnation and a one dimensional world. In turn, software creators are forced to live and operate in that one dimension, struggling to squeeze as much out of a box that they can.
As we've seen many times, underfunded projects are destined to die off. If hardware becomes free and available to all there's no profit. And where there's no profit there's no innovation; therefore, we will create our own stone age.
Peace
The Gillette model. Seems to work well with printers so far.
Printers cheap.
Ink/Special purpose paper expensive.
Hardware cheap.
Subscription software expensive.
But...
Open Source not.
Hmmm.
Computing for everybody, regardless of their income bracket.
Good-bye digital divide?
I think by "free" these guys mean "really expensive".
Well, if they said that to someone like AsusTek or NVidia they would probably laught their asses off and counter this with "software will be free in about 10 years."
:)
and if you thing right... it will be free. GNU/Linux is almost reaching a Good Desktop Usage and it's opensource.
Maybe they are saying this just to throw sand in big wales eyes or just giving some justification to the buyers of Microsoft and Sun software products.
"Buy our software, get hardware free!"
pure marketing stratego.
Well.. then they should make enough money to compensate the fee hardware. Then.. I think the sofware subscription fee will be very expensive or some concept like monthly payment will be accepted.
Hmm.. Apple! It is a big threat to you!
Free Hardware + Free OS (Linux) + Free programs, while final polishing is not so good as commercial programs = Collapse of the hardware only company + Collapse of Apple + Collapse of paid programmers?
Especially.. the last thing.. because I'm a programmer. Who will major computer science then?
More people will be try to be professors then..
There will always be a manufacturer who will need to pay his employees.
The cost could be relocated elsewhere. But in the end it comes back to the consumer.
If Microsoft were to give everyone who buys their software a PC, they would just transfer the costs to the consumer anyway.
Get a free ipod.
2 years ago, I built a computer for around $250, which is a 1.9Ghz AMD, with a monitor I have had for almost 4 years. (19 in. from CyberMax, they went away a month after I bought the original computer.)
I used a hard drive from a previous computer, and a CD-ROM Burner I had already.
I have put Mandrake, Red Hat, Sorcerer, Source Mage, and Gentoo on said box. Gentoo being what is currently on the box.
Now I am supposed to enter into a license agreement from Sun or Microsoft, and they'll GIVE me a computer, as long as I pay $150-$300 a year for the next 50 years.
_YEP_ I see that one happening.
Scott Carr
One more interesting thing about the "HW wants to be free" model is how it'll affect Dell, formerly a great MSFT ally.
I bet Michael Dell's not sleeping well if he's trying to sell commodity hardware that Balmer and McNeeley want to give away.
It sounds like some of the predicted features of Longhorn may be coming true.
.net architects were summoned to see Mr. Bill (before .net) about XML and away Gates went. (not supposition - first hand story from .net architects)
The grapevine has it Longhorn won't be as open a system as all of the other operating systems Microsoft has put forward: you won't be able to get to the files on the HD directly and will have to go through Longhorn for everything; i.e., everything will be proprietary, not only in terms of file structure[1] but access methods. Put a few patents on the various technologies and you've locked 3rd parties: commercial, shareware, freeware, or opensource without securing a license (permission?). Microsoft passes the hat and not only do they make more money, but more importantly, they maintain even more control. Opensource, the bane of Microsoft? Difficult. Sure, it can be hacked, but remember, Microsoft's got a crack team of people cranking out patent applications for Longhorn-related material. On top of that, they almost missed the XML market[2]. Now, they're like a little boy with a hammer: everything looks like a nail.
And the stories about Microsoft making it possible to toss BIOS away? What do you suppose the intention is there? Make it even more difficult to "do your own thing". Sure, people will crack it, but it'll take awhile.
There has been a lot of talk from the inner circles at Redmond over the years regarding how long they have to maintain backward compatibility. How far back do they have to go? DOS? (which version?) Windows? (how far back?) and so on. Not only would people have to pay again[3] but the new code wouldn't be required to deal with the past.
[1] As an example of protecting proprietary material, they've already patented MS Office's XML file layouts because the contents will be a bit more open so they felt the need to protect it.
[2] The
[3] Microsoft loves to "pass the hat", don't they? Too much time between Win98 and XP? "Let's make more money." Add a couple of small changes and charge some more; ta-da! Win 98SE, Win 98ME. Now, why do you think there's talk of XP Reloaded before Longhorn? Don't worry about Longhorn running until 2006 or 2007. Rinky-dink changes to XP, and there's another influx of money.
hardware will be free when monkey-boy flies on his own power. if sun is predicting their servers will be free now... well, hoo boy, do I have a list of enterprise 8-processor machines for him to ship!!!
and please, when you ship those free servers to me, also ship spares ahead, so we save time when their techs come out gratis to swap modules.
if this is supposed to be a new economy, how come they still want my old fashioned money?
We're talking about manufacture here.
'Manufacturing' software requires (at most) pressing cds and printing manuals.
Designing software is expensive... but so is designing hardware.
If you're given the hardware for free and be forced to buy a software subscription to Windows in order to GET the hardware, where does that leave Linux. Basically you will be forced to buy an OS you never plan to use. So we should say Gates and McNealy HOPE that hardware will be free, but I doubt we will ever get there.
Software subscriptions also insure constant revenues for software companies. Under the EULA, Office 2003 could just stop to work one day, because you only have a 2 year subscription.
The software subscription world sucks...
Andy
If you're trying to get past library or corporate censorship, it's "bicches." Likewise, the verb meaning to m*ke l*ve is "fsck."
Interesting... In a way this sounds like "dumping" of a product to keep a monopoly, doesn't it?
I'm not an economist, but, I always thought economics was about solving the problem of distributing scarce "goods". Hardware seems inherently scarce - limited by our production capacity and the scarcity of whatever physical components go into the hardware. Services, such as setting up a network or developing software are scarce - limited by the scarcity of the number of qualified people/things to deliver this service. But scarcity of software (and any kind of information: books, videos, music) AFTER it's been written is limited only by the communication channels through which the information is disseminated. Thanks to the internet, cost of dissemination is rapidly approaching zero.
So what's MY prediction? I predict you won't have to pay for software. I predict you will have to pay for hardware, although the cost of the hardware might be bundled into a service. I predict you will pay for the service of having software developed. So I'll subscribe to Joe's development studio, paying X bucks a month. And for that $X a month, I might get free hardware (or I'll buy my own), the latest version of every project Joe's studio is working on... oh, and 24/7 support. And if I ever decide to stop the service, I still get access to any build of any project that existed before my subscription ended. Yeah... that's how it will be.
Every time you read this, I am going against my principles.
Take something that takes money to reproduce for consumption (hardware: pay to develop, pay to (mass)produce, pay to distribute) and give it away so that you can charge money for something that costs nothing to reproduce and is easily copied and reproduced by someone else? (Software: pay to develop, pay relatively nothing to produce, pay relatively nothing to distribute)
Seems backwards.
1. Charge for hardware to recoup costs and make profits.
2. Charge for software (or not) that needs hardware to run on (and always will).
3. Profit.
Once again they're being the doomed contrarian in the face of rational IT/technological wisdom.
Hardware is already becoming so cheap as to be virtually insignificant for many companies (especially if you use an OS that has much lower requirements than Windows).
Microsoft and other commercial software companies have demonstrated that high software and licensing costs are the most hated aspect of IT budgeting.
Sun's just demonstrating once again that they have no clue which direction to turn, and by some sad misfortune they've pointed themselves backwards.
.sigs are for post^Hers.
Pay me $30,000 U.S. dollars a year for 4 tires, and I will throw in a free Dodge Neon every year.
Some restrictions apply.
Get a free ipod.
Before everyone begins to panic, remember that we ALL have the ability to create our own processors (through the miracle of VHDL). Lockdown, smockdown, we can create our OWN standards. If they don't like it, tough.
True, it means that more and more of us will have to depend on GPL'd code, but to be honest, I've gotten more value out of that than I have out of the big dollar code (although I must admit, I still while away a lot of time with GarageBand).
No, our hardware won't be as pretty, and maybe not as fast or cool, but it will be OUR hardware.
WE, are NOT dependent on Microsoft, or Sun, or Apple, or Dell, or AMD. It is not 1975 and more people know about the internals of microprocessors than they did in that long bygone era.
If we want to do a number on the computer industry, we would start using GPL'd hardware. THAT would scare them!
Feloneous
IANAL, but I've seen actors play them on TV
I think there is an agenda behind this to wipe free software off the face of the Earth. They'll argue to Congress that free software allows people to pirate free hardware to the detriment of these companies, as if they have some God-given right to eternal perpetually increasing profits, and as if the government has some duty to protect that.
No. I have a very strong feeling that software will be free, NOT hardware, because software is information, which by its nature will spread, while hardware is made of physical tangible materials, which by their nature do not multiply. (I think there is some law of physics that prevents that from happening.) Gill Bates has it all back-ass-wards. (And his billions of dollars are a testament to that, by the way.)
Evidently, in this usage, the word "free" is being repurposed to mean "bundled".
Hardware will cost (but will be cheap), Most software will be "free", support will cost. Currently there's enough open source software that's better than the traditional alternatives to easily run a business on. Open Office is good enough for 90% of the users. Thunderbird is just amazing and kicks the shit out of Outlook. Firebird/Mozilla leaves IE6 in the dust. The only thing stopping the adoption of this software is the costs of changeover, i.e. support.
The biggest cost of software is maintaining it. It used to be that updates didn't really matter since each computer was an island that couldn't be connected to from the outside world. With every computer being connected together, those days are long gone. Also, with software development becoming more and more interdependent on its individual components, updates to operating systems become more and more important. Does anyone wants to pay $200 per workstation for a new OS, $150 for a new office suite every 3 years or so? Ultimately what you want is to keep using your computer and pay someone to make the right decisions for your business.
AccountKiller
(Reuters)
A leading bicycle manufacturer announced today that, in the future, bicycles will be free but people will have to pay for the oxygen they'd breathe while biking.
Advertisement:
[Kids, steal money from your parents and buy Nike brand oxygen. Only Nike oxygen delivers the charge you need to push the limit.]
This announcement follows a call by several right-wing thinktanks for a transition from a manufacture-based to a service-based economy.
A number of South American and African nations, who have finally developed a manufacturing sector of their own in spite of IMF loans going primarily to resource extraction are not expected to follow the advice in the near future.
Is this a sigs-optional kind of place? 'Cause I am totally down with that if you know what I mean.
They know it and are tring to keep you on there hook.
Linux, Thank god for Linux!!
There is no such thing as a free lunch.
---
Lousy rotten karmic retribution.
Sun wants to walk on water to invent profits..
Unfortunately real world economics appear to drown this idea..
Basically its liek this..
Software is infinitately copide.. and thus we can reason that if its part of infrastrucutre that there would be an economic incentive and movement by developing nations to make software free..
Whereas hardware is not easily coopied and thus whiel it might be commodized by shifting labour costs will still cost something to all type sof consumers..
Thus rises the problem when you have IT geeks try to indidcate they understand economics..
Sun should worry more about MS taking the profits from High Performance computing and their market share than spewing useless FUD..
Don't Tread on OpenSource
<sarcasm>And "push" content will be the way of the future too.</sarcasm> Remember that buzz word?
Yeah, yeah, yeah. The story is a dupe, the topic is boring, the facts weren't checked. WE GET IT!!
10 years in the future Cars will be free, you'll only have to pay for Gas.
No chance in hell that I would take on of there free hardware subsciptions!
what?
What car dealers want you to do is think in terms of a payment, not the real cost. Once you're in that murky world, they can manipulate the terms of any agreement, buy or lease, enough to make their money and then some. There are situations where a lease would make sense, but it plays with most consumers as a variation of exactly what car dealers want to do to you. They love this stuff.
Take a look at the contract anyone signs on their lease, and you see mileage caps they can't exceed (with big per-mile fees for going past them), "wear and tear" charges on return, huge balloon payments at the end if they want to buy out, and so on. That's not to mention having car payments all the time rather than half the time, assuming a 10 year life on cars. Add to that no downpayment money from a trade-in when you do turn leases over -- which you do much more often. Just the big money up front should make you leary, leaving along the lump at the other end.
I don't "get" the model being offered here by Sun, and the specter of Microsoft running a show like that completely freaks me out. It only really works if I'm buying into a monolithic model for software distribution. The existing stuff that works more-or-less by this business model -- loss-leader console to sell cartridges -- seems to be plagued by the exact sort of warring standards balkanization that no business user would want...
"Fundamentalism" isn't about divine morality. It's about human authority.
Has anyone checked out the price of sun hardware on sun's website recently? How come the E25k is still selling for 3.2 million dollars?!? Even their low end boxes like the sunblad 1500 are selling for $3000. Hellooooo?!?
I think the argument (long term) has two basic tenants.
1) all the hardware sold will eventually break or lose its appeal.
2) at some stage central forces, controlled by the software corps, will be able to remove any competition on whatever is the dominant hardware.
So when your Pentium 7 is still running free software but you can't connect to anything and all your friends have gone over to the controlled Pentium 10 its not cool to be free. Cool beats freedom.
I'm hoping that international Standards keep enough teeth to insure interoperability. Lets hope companies like IBM & markets like China can stop too much centralization of power.
I think someone should quote Gandalf to Sun if it now thinks Microsoft is its ally:
"There is only one master of the ring, and he does not share power!"
this quote from McNealy in 2001:
McNealy, whose company makes most of its money from high-end hardware sales, had said that "software is a feature [of hardware], not an industry,"
He predicted at that time exactly the reverse of what Sun is postulating now.
HMMMM.
The hardware will be about as free as the free sex you get when you get married.
'Nuff said.
It does not matter if the end user receives their hardware at zero cost. It does not matter if hardware is "dirt cheap" to manufacture as one person put it.
There are still hefty environmental and social costs built-in to the creation of new computers that should not be ignored: costs from the depletion of natural resources; costs from the use of clean water which now must be reprocessed to be usable again (making a PC uses a couple of tons of water); costs from the huge amount of materials sent to our landfills; and high social costs in terms of the perpetuation of unfair wages, unsafe working conditions, and misdirection of resources in nations without strong labor or conservation laws that seem unable to resist the onslaught of Western "capitalism."
Since this marketing scheme will almost certainly lead to an increase in the consumption (and hence disposal) of computers, it cannot help but exacerbate these problems. The costs of free software are far less significant.
This is a stupid idea, no matter how well it is received by the public and no matter how well it improves corporate profits.
The software companies think the hardware will be commoditized and you'll pay for software (Microsoft and Sun among them, Sun obviously thinking their salvation is in moving away from the hardware arena)...
The hardware companies think you'll continue to pay for hardware but the software will be free (IBM and Intel among them, IBM being a big Linux & OSS booster)...
I say...
THEY'RE BOTH RIGHT! Free machines AND software for all the children!
If a pion (n-) collides with a proton in the woods & noone is there to hear it, does lamdba decay into the source pa
Well, you know that Sun has been assimilated when their COO agrees with Microsoft that hardware will be free when nearly all of Sun's profits (such as they are ;-) come from big iron hardware.
Fools...
For all of the Wall Street types that are listening, you should probably urge your clients to sell "SUNW" ASAP.
uh no, he's sleeping great. someone has top make it. the only thing that changes is whose paying for it.
"If you pay us $1499 every year for 3 years, we'll sell you a license for things you don't use AND an overpriced server that we'd normally charge $7,000 for."
At least, that's the "deal" I got by email 6 weeks ago. Probably not a bad deal if you are managing a SUN-only shop, but if you are happy with Eclipse and Linux running on cheap hardware...
Information: "I want to be anthropomorphized"
This has been tried before, and failed miserably. Doesn't anyone remember eMachines?
#DeleteChrome
The idiot will take the 0%. The smart person will negotiate. I purcased a car two weeks ago and if I calculate it I got -15% financing based on the original monthly payments. For the same term I'm paying 15% less than the 0% which the dealer was offering.
Always look at your options....
DRM? No thanks, I'll just get it somewhere else...
I see this working out like cell phone technology. The hardware will be there for a set price, but if you're willing to sign up for a contract with some vendor, they're going to supply the hardware free... of course it won't be cutting edge, those will be upgrades with set prices.
This is nothing new, and in fact is a business model I've been setting up for a particular piece of software I'm working on because I'm sellin to a very low-tech crowd and want to offer a complete package.
for Sun...
Claiming that computing will be by subscription simply ignores the obvious - FOSS. What Schwartz and Gates think is irrelevant - FOSS-based computing is increasingly more reliable, scalable and better quality than their systems are anyway. Switching an office to Linux and OpenOffice from Win and MS Office is no longer a significant effort.
Parent wrote: "Somebody forgot to tell Apple"
One more interesting thing about the "HW wants to be free" model is how it'll affect Dell, formerly a great MSFT ally.
I bet Michael Dell's not sleeping well if he's trying to sell commodity hardware that Balmer and McNeeley want to give away.
Not necessarily. After all even now companies like Dell make money selling Microsoft licenses. The best racket are the CALs since this is literally a license to print money. Dell will not give their hardware away for free. But if they get cut in on enough of the money from the Windows licenses, they will surely provide hardware in exchange for that.
If you ask me, most, if not all software should be free for personal use. The big bucks are with support agreements and sales to corporations and government.
I like the way some vendors are moving, like Oracle. You can download all their software and experiment with it for personal use. Why do they do this? Because the more people in the workplace that are familiar with their products, the more it will be adopted.
Why don't more companies embrace this?
"Thanks to the remote control I have the attention span of a gerbil."
The phone companies were charging a small fee every
month to 'rent' a phone, which over a period of many
years (the phones lasted forever) added up to thousands of dollars. You weren't allowed to actually buy a phone (which would have cost about
$100). The gov't. eventually stepped in, probably
at the urging of businesses who wanted to sell
new phones with more features.
I would really like to see him say that while Bill Gates is drinking a glass of water.
but this guy takes the biscuit. As Groklaw has already noted, Sun appears to be working hard for Microsoft and SCO's dollars. How they expect to survive as a company is beyond me.
At USD 4.30 per share, Sun's investors don't seem to be buying the bullshit either.
The monopoly mentality in hardware lived long past Western Electric's demise. I remember working at a convention in NYC in 1992. The convention contracted with NYNEX to supply telephones. The NYNEX/CWA phone techs broke the ends off the release tabs on the RJ-45 wiring after plugging them in, under the misconception that this would keep "civicians" from moving "their" telephones. Oh, and there really weren't proprietary connetors. While there was a big, clunky 4-prong plug for some phones, most were hard wired into the wall in those days. And those rental phones were built to last. Made of heavy Bakelite plastic (or something similar), they probably could survive a 30-foot drop. And if anything ever went bad, you just called for a free replacement.
I mean, at least SUN has a hardware manufacturing arm, so they're at least offering SOMETHING for nothing, whereas Bill's only offering nothing for nothing.
Clever marketing. And, if they repeat the mantra enough times, who knows? Maybe people will believe it.
So is this a tool to make it 'easier' for companies to purchase more hardware more often? Currently a lot of companies won't purchase new hardware nearly as often as software, because the hardare must be amortized on IRS tax tables, that frankly suck if you need current hardware. If it takes 5 years to write off your server, most companies don't want a new server for 5 years.
But now if you dont' have to do that, a large, or even small company is more likely to go to a subscription model, where they are promised newere hardware at better increments. They've already been trained by Microsoft and Sun that software is really expensive, so it's easy for them to swallow a high priced subscription, who has the hardware factored into it.
Now, will the IRS start requiring companies to amortize software costs? This would probalby be a great asset to Free software recognition IMHO. Of course, it would be difficult for Microsoft, who's EULA doesn't allow for the software to be considered an 'asset'. (heck, remember bluelight being nailed for trying to include the asset value of their licenses when they were sold?).
Apparently there are still at least a million phones being leased.
What about the ISVs? Are the independant software developers going to have to pay Sun and or Microsoft for the right to run software on those boxes? I really doubt that many large companies and gaverments will want to work that way. On the other side you will have IBM and Apple saying yah buy the hardware and we will give you all this free software. Now you can do what ever you want with the hardware. Run Linux or AIX or OS/X on it. I really see this rubbing people the wrong way. What you could see is a huge migration for ISVs away from Windows and Solaris.
Yes I know this is they way that consols work but you do not use consols to run your company or your nation.
See my blog http://ilovecookes.blogspot.com/ for light hearted technical information.
The best reason that this will fail is not anything mentioned yet.
It is us.
Not us as geeks who represent a miniscule market.
It is us as geeks that represent geeks everywhere who are the real ones who change the game.
Or, as Balmer would say, Developers, Developers Developers!
And, it isn't just the numbers. Maybe Sun and MS will employ almost all of them. It is the freedom. The free developers will be the ones to develop the cool stuff.
Just as it always has been...
The hardware industry is too largely diversified in order to substain this type of pricing and I doubt it could ever happen when you take into account of the production of hardware.
:
Of course I don't think any one can miss the financial benefits companies like
- Microsoft, who tries (or tried) to get into the hardware bandwagon but never had any spectacular offering and success (never mind the keyboards and mouse market).
- Sun, who sees it's revenu from hardware sale largely diminishing from competition on the server market (linux from HP or IBM with x86 hardware, etc.)
They have all to gain from free hardware and nothing to loose from it.
But reversably, they have everything to loose from free software, which is increasingly being offered more and more and with excellent quality product.
But the question is, why isn't the hardware industry following the same road as the software?
Hardware is real, hardware takes : fabrication, prime materials, production facilities, transport, engineering, exportation, the human chain is more interconnected, etc etc etc. hardware cost a lot in time and in money.
Software on the other hand is relatively easy to produce. A software can be done in spare time. A software can be done by a sole individual, or a group of individual and produce a truly great product. It can be free a lot more easily, someone who writes a discussion forum for his own site just for the fun of it and that took him say a week of his spare time, he will most likely not care about financial return of his product if other would like to use it. Even companies can get revenu from free software (ie: redhat). Softare is basically bound by the imagination, motivation and talent of the coders, and that is a immense pond of possibilities.
A piece of free-software is easily used by millions of people if it's good.
A piece of hardware cannot be enjoyed the same way. Millions users of particular product = Millions users X (time taken to produce the final product + materials + x.factor).
Software is on the free highway and picking up speed.
Hardware cannot go on the free highway and companies who are trying to push that venture are the chicken seeing the axe being swirled over their head.
It's like Microsoft+Sun asking Intel, AMD, IBM, NVIDIA, ATI, VIA, SIS, MICRON, etc. etc. to be part of a package deal where users are in the end, stuck with not much choice. I doubt hardware people would take part of this.
Plus, a global economy would be left on the shoulder of software offerings by major companies and that would never be strong enough to work (plus the consummer would not support this in my mind).
kyldrog@hotmail.com
Seriously, though, this may not be too out of line for what corporations want. Vendor lock-in does have an upside, which is that -- assuming a good vendor, heh -- Stuff Just Works. Clearly this is not appropriate for hobbyists, or a technology shop, but a business for whom IT's role is to support actual business operations may well benefit from an integrated solution from IBM or Sun or whomever. It may be cheaper or sexier to implement a teetering stack of free, semi-free, in-house, and propriety middleware, but it is also a huge pain in the rear.
I can see a market for people who say "I want a payroll system and I want it now and b'God it better work and have a warm, cuddly IBM technician a mere phone-call away! And if that rat bastard Tommy from Accounting leaks any more confidential memos, wouldn't it be cool if those Reuters jackals can't even open the sucker! AAAAH HA HA HA HAAAAAA"
Well, you know what I mean.
Mr. Schwartz may ship my new free 42U rack of 42 Xserve G5 1U Servers direct to my current address.
A Rack full of free RAID storage would be nice too.
I will get back to him about signing up for some subscription, ah, later...
Getting free hardware with your subscription to Windows kind of smacks of antitrust ala Netscape. What happens to hardware manufacturers that don't sell software or dare to charge for their product? What if I don't want Microsoft controlled hardware with built in DRM?
I seem to recall a time where you didn't own the telephone in your house either, but the phone company gave you one with your subscription. Anyone know how&why that model changed?
Antitrust action against AT&T
"I do not agree with what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it"
From the article, emphasis mine, of course...
Already, Sun offers a mid-range server for free to software developers provided they subscribe to bundled software and services offerings.
Schwartz isn't alone in saying that hardware will someday be "free," so long as customers sign up for multiyear software subscriptions and services contracts.
If I'm selling you two things, call them A and B, and it cost me 50 units of resources to build them, guess what? The price of A+B > 50 units every time -- or I go out of business.
A or B could be hardware, it could be subscription services, it could be maintenance, it could be anything. We could already say that Apple hardware is free, providing you're willing to pay a couple of thousand for the initial OS X install. It's all semantic gynastics. For heaven's sake folk, the hardware they speak of isn't free. Everyone knows that. No more free than the lenses I got with my glasses frames or the DVD of the Patriots I got with Sports Illustrated.
And *of course* OS makers would prefer you ignored hardware -- and more importantly prefer hardware mfgs become even more beholden to OS makers for their dime. If you think HP/Dell/etc was in MS's pocket a few years ago... sheesh.
So just remember, the price of A+B will always be greater than their combined cost to create. As long as someone bundles, what difference does it make? The profit the hardware makers used to derive directly from you would now come from MS or Sun for each unit sold. Wow. How inventive and out of the box. Let's sound like we're moving the company at light speed, helped by the fact that we're travelling in MS's wake now, and hope it helps people ignore that, "Since the dot-com and telecommunications bubbles burst, Sun has posted a string of quarterly losses and declining revenue as its core customer industries - telecommunications and financial services - suffered."
And, of course, it's almost too obvious to bother pointing out that your "free hardware" will [typically] be bottom of the line jive. Upgrade to Office 2015? Well, it doesn't even pretend to run on your Office 2012 hardware. Want to play DOOM 5? Well, you're still shelling out -- that'll never run on the hardware you get bundled with Office today -- unless you sign up for a pretty danged shackling agreement. The more I learn about corporations' planned tomorrow, the safer I feel it to assume I'll be using Linux when I get there.
It's all 0s and 1s. Or it's not.
Apparently, at least one American would do well to take 3rd-grade grammar again...
Any sufficiently well-organized Government is indistinguishable from bullshit.
Okay. I bought a subscription to Application X. I want it to run faster. I want to be able to process more data. I want more of that free hardware. Please send me some more. I need it by tomorrow, installed, configured and running.
Seriously, I have worked outside the bounds of packaged applications and even nice development environments for a huge portion of my career. I've lost count of how many tools I've written to load data from legacy sources or interface with some prototype hardware or application on another vendor's system. There will always bee good reasons for the pieces to be available unbundled.
This is the age-old fight for commoditization. When consumers can choose from a choice of similar products, that product becomes a commodity. For example, hard drives are a commodity. Operating systems for the desktop are not a commodity.
IBM's support of Linux is not so much a noble pursuit as much as it's an attempt to commoditize Linux so they can producte unique, high end hardware that will run any number of flavours on it.
In contract, Microsoft's attempt to commoditize hardware to the point that it can be given away is a result of their unique monopoly of the desktop operating system market. They want hardware to remain a commodity, so they must continue to monopolize software. Sun is simply parroting this position because the know it's the end of the line for them.
I don't know about you, but I still prefer the tactile feel of real products. I also prefer to own rather than rent my products.
Ruby on Rails Screencast
This is pure fantasy bullshit.
Physical goods, especially those that can only be produced by really sophisticated processes (chips, mobos, etc.) are definitely not free. They CANNOT be free.
This is just a euphemism for some other marketing bullshit. And besides -- what's wrong with paying for your hardware? Computers are ridiculously cheap. $600 gets you a very decent system. Be an adult and pay for what you take.
Microsoft/Sun is betting that the future of ownership lies in the realm of "ideas on paper", and not in the realm of "ideas expressed in metal and silicon", much less in the realm of plain old physical stuff, which is the only area that ownership should be meaningful.
It's an interesting claim.... building the structure of ownership from "stuff" out into the abstract realm of ideas.
If they can get away with it, they are golden and you and I are so, so screwed.
It's no exageration to say that the future of humanity and human freedom is at stake. If ideas can be owned in perpetuity, given the viral nature of ideas, ultimately we have a condition of complete ownership of your brain by large corporations.
If ideas are owned, someday every idea you have learned will have been learned from a textbook or cultural source that someone had an intellectual property interest in. You literally will not own the thoughts in your own head.
It is an amazing fascistic vision that these folks are promoting. It is hard to see where it will end, given that the issue is difficult for ordinary law makers and citizens to grasp, and given the fact that MS already has its foot in the door with billions to spend to promote this idea.
Companies like Apple, however, would probably see this differently. Apple views the combination of their hardware and software as the ultimate synergy -- they sell the revolutionary, marketable software (the iApps for example) and the hardware to run it on; but also offer just the hardware for the 200,000 other uses that don't involve the iApps.
As for the operating systems: of course, the OS is bundled free with Apple's hardware, not hardware bundled free with software. Something Microsoft can't do since it doesn't make computers.
"All your base are belong to this file I send in order to have your advice."
Sun Blade 2500??
It would look good next to a free Sun Fire E25K server.
...if your Microsoft.
.. [URL="http://www.google.com/press/zeitgeist.html"] According to Google[/URL], 21% of users are running Windows 98, a 6 year old OS which while it doesn't run the latest MS (W2K+) software, is still being used day in and day out by millions and millions of people.
.. People running Win98 by and large tend to be happy with their systems and generally only upgrade (atleast in my experience) due to hardware failure or incompatibility with some current must-have-software.
.. umm.. thats it.
.. people will grow accustomed to paying and just accept it as another media/telecom cost.
.. heck its only $50/mo and you get the free computer!
Take a look at Windows 98
Historically Microsoft could get 3-4 year cycles
Microsoft takes a look at the media giants, looks at internet providers, looks at phone companies, cell phone companies, etc..etc.. All of these have people paying out $40+ a month without a flinch. $40 a month x a 3 year contract is $1440. If your Microsoft, that looks a heck of a lot better than that same individual paying for a $500 box and well
Not only can they get the monthly revenue stream, but they won't technically have to "innovate" nearly as hard
If I was Microsoft, I'd want to achieve this business model as well.. reduced R&D, consistent monthly income, total lockin and piece-of-cake to restrict (DRM and so forth)
Of course, initially this platform will be pretty cool.. I wouldn't be surprised if the broadband companies are the ones who actually do the install.
Get your highspeed internet, pay another $50 or so a month, get the computer which has access to the online music store and other exclusive online content (of course the music store would only play on the computer.. burning to CD or so forth would be extra) plus the standard set of Microsoft software.
Perhaps MS would even setup the box in such a way where documents and all that are stored online in a "trusted" passport account or similar. Then they can tout ease of use! "Have a problem with the system? Hit the "restore" button on the front and it will reload everything from a disk image! All your documents are safely stored online!" -- I dunno, to the masses who have pounded their head against data loss and doing everything by themselves, that might sound rather appealing
yikes.
Hardware's free, and put GPL software on it and you can get everything for free :P.
J/K I did read the article, sounds like an interesting idea. I already get this done in some way, I get my hardware, cable modem, 'free' with my subscription to the internet.
3dinfo@maficstudios.com
sweet.... we just have to stick to linux, and in a few years we will get free PCs.
Does the customer need to buy his own paper for him to install the book on?
Customer: I'd like to buy the 'Atrocity Archives'.
Clerk: Ok, that will be $10.95, please provide me with some paper to install it.
Customer: What? I didn't know I had to have paper, doesn't it come with the book?
Clerk: Absolutely not! Your only buying the story, not the paper, there's a paper store right next to us, you could pick up some for just $5.
Customer: What, no, no I don't want to pay that, can you just install it on this napkin?
Clerk: Hmm that napkin does not meet the minimum requirements for the book, you might have some problems.
Customer: Damn it! Install it on the napkin or no sale.
Clerk: Ok, (ZAP) there you go.
Customer: Great... what I can't read it, the print is too small.
Clerk: Sorry no refunds after the book is installed.
Selling software and hardware together makes since. However only for a small range of software. There will always be a need for personal computers, but right now a lot of people have them that don't need them.
fascinating... so Dell may end up being a software reseller, and the HW's just the vehicle! I guess that makes sense, though. RealNetworks apparently pays them a bunch to pre-install RealPlayer on their computers.
who's going to pay for this hardware?
you!
just not directly.
-- I am. Therefore, I think!
In other news, sun sucks the cock of the devil.
.. Wait, scratch that last one.
Come on, you mean to tell me something that takes nothing but time and money will be more costly then something that requires natural resources, time, factorys, asian people, etc??
Well, one day, Cars will be free, people will only pay for the oil.
And one day, homes will be free, people will only pay for the utilities.
And one day, condoms will be free, people will only pay for the sex.
I say, one day software and hardware will be free, and you will only pay for DRM. (Yes, i know DRM is done with hardware and software, lighten up)
One of two things must hapend:
- the meaning of free will change
- ads using the word free will be baned
"Free TV when you buy a remote"
just means the price of the remote include a TV.
"Free maintenance"
just means the cost of the maintenance is
included on price of the item.
we all know that so it doesn't affect us.
But if they use it it's because it's working
on some people.
On another hand if I return the remote because
the color doesn't match my walls it's obvious
that I should keep the TV - it was given free
after all.
Yes. This sounds like exactly what Balmer&McNeeley are looking for.
Then, the introduction of the Macintosh. The Mac dominated business for several years after its introduction. It wasn't really until the late 80s, when clones started becoming common, that it lost its edge; remember, Apple was cheaper than IBM way back then.
my old sig used to be funny, but then slashcode ate it and now it's not funny anymore
Actualy the cable companes do this with their cable modems. But now with pallets full at your local warehouse store its a mood point.
They have been pushing for rent the software like the old orignal IBM modles for the last ten years.
I hope they realize this is not a phone or cable modem but they will need to maintain this. And there state of maintance is pritty poor!
Open Source Software
Si vis pacem, para bellum! For evil to succeed good men need only do nothing!
All "major" computer makers lease their machines. Granted, that's because they charge $1800 for $750 worth of computer, but they most certainly do it.
It is obvious that it makes money, or else they would not do it.
What we call folk wisdom is often no more than a kind of expedient stupidity.-Edward Abbey
They want to make it so that you can't buy good consumer-grade hardware without a software subscription from Microsoft and partners of Microsoft. I expect that if you cancel the subscription, you must return the hardware.
I hope people can see this for what it is. This is a clearly an attempt by SUN and MS to controll both sides of the upgrade tredmill. If you "give" the hardware away what you are really doing is including those costs in the price of the software. Right now the hardware and software businesses are partially descrete, M$ will sell me new software to run on my existing hardware as will Sun. In some cases, depending on the licensing,this reallly only matters to Sun not M$ I can get new hardware and use my old software. As soon as you make hardware and software a package though you control both ends. If I want new software you get bundle it with hardware I don't need or want by have to pay for even if there is no reason why the old hardware was inssuficent. It works in the other direction as well, I need more horsepower to host another 15 sites well, I get the privilage of being forced to upgrade to the latest IIS while I am at it even if I had put together a software image I was happy with.
Billy-boy can give me one of those dual-core Longhorn-capable machines for free, and Sun can give me a nifty SPARC-powered machine for free.
Then I'll install Linux on them, and forgo the software rental fees.
steve
Oh, you're not stuck, you're just unable to let go of the onion rings.
This is just a new spin on embrace and extend. Just this time, MS/SUN want to embrace the hardware platform and DRM/proprietary interfaces. And slowly through attrition push out free/non-os-dependent hardware.
hmmm on 2nd thought not just Embrace and Extend but add in a dash of Bundling as well.
As soon as MS/SUN feels they have a majority of the hardware "sales" they will discontinue the standalone licenses of the OS or offer it at an exorbant price.
Is it just me or are they really not afraid of the anti-trust laws?
I am a figment of my own imagination.
WooHoo!!! So when can I get my SunFire 15k? /sarcasm
I never did quite understand this statement. Could you please explain to me how beer is free? The last time I went to the club, I spent over $175.00 on beer. There wasn't even much selection in this "free beer" either.
How are things free as in beer? Does that mean that my "free" graphics card only costs me $175.00 also?
First, hardware does cost money. It isn't free, and Sun is not particularly efficient at making it. Put simply, Sun isn't ever going to be able to compete with Dell, which will crank out perfectly good boxes at prices that Sun can't touch. Even if Sun hides these extra costs in "solution fees," those costs are real and must be passed on to customers. Therefore, other vendors can undercut Sun's pricing by offering equivalent solutions in which Sun hardware has been replaced by Dell hardware.
Second, the price that the market is willing to pay for software is rapidly decreasing, courtesy of Free software. Ultimately, the price that Microsoft and Sun can charge for their software, however well hidden, is not equivalent to the net benefit that their software provides. Rather, they can charge only for the net additional benefit that their software provides beyond what is already available as Free software. In other words, if the market can have functionality J for free, and Microsoft and Sun offer functionality J+K in their solutions, the market will only be willing to pay for K. As Free software incorporates more functionality, J gets larger and K gets smaller, and hence Microsoft and Sun's pricing power diminishes. Thus, as free software improves other vendors will be able to undercut Microsoft and Sun by offering equivalent solutions in which the proprietary software has been replaced by Free software.
The bottom line is that a solution is hardware plus software plus services. Take any solution which involves Sun, and you can undercut it by replacing Sun with Dell. Take any solution which involves Microsoft, and you can undercut it by replacing Microsoft software with Free software.
I'm going to enjoy watching this play out in the market.
Easy, automatic testing for Perl.
- I have this software - anyone who wants it can have it for free.
- I can provide hardware - anyone who wants it can have it for free.
The incremental cost of letting one more person use your software is zero (basically); the incremental cost of building someone some hardware is not zero."When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro" -- HST
So, let's see - a commodity that costs more money to manufacture than it does to design is going to be a free product, while a commodity that costs zero money to manufacture, and only has costs to design isn't???
Not in a million years.
Don't label something "offtopic" unless you know the topic well enough to tell what's on topic.
...because it gets rid of capital acquisition costs and risk of over provisioning stuff that quickly loses $value. The idea makes lots of sense. Really.
I remember a few years ago when Sun was enemies with Microsoft Scott McNealy during an interview said that software is a feature, and hardware is what people bought. What a difference a few billion dollars make!
I was about to post that it was silly, before I realized I was looking at the pile of free hardware my friend brought over yesterday. Then I realized I was also using free software. Which is all really convienent since I don't have a job.
But this schems works if everyone follows. Microsoft can try. XBox are not servers. MS easily can lock them, locked servers are next to useless.
Problem with that DRM game is that China and India won't follow. China is starting boiling its own standards to avoid American patents. Smart ass analysts say "fragmenting the market is dangerous". Well, a potential market of 1.2 billions people with two main languages is not that fragmented. Someone should tell this guys from Big Apple that there is something south of the Statue of Liberty!
Oh, and most of manufacturing is in Asia. America is working hard so that support and engineering will soon be there too. Europe will probably do the same. :(
Now about content.
Bill and Scott think the real value is software and content (music, movies). Problem is that Asia and easter Europe is starting to be good there to. Interesting that Tarentino movie blinks at asiatic movies. At least he is aware, that the strength of america is to be a melting pot. America can lock itself in DRM and get its culture even more inbred than it has recently become. Choice: Oprah or Jerry Springer?
Now about software and service. IBM is using Open Source, Oracle is training ist workforce to Linux. Who needs Sun which tries to force on us its own stuff? Who want slowlaris anyway?
Remember the Boston Tea Party. The asians can start their Asian Tea Party. any day know.
Short of nuking them, America will have to rebuild know how, industries... Who knows? America becoming a poor country, some day some morons from Asia will think smart to oursource in America. And leadership will change again.
A few years back, I was asking myself "will this end up with an asian Tea party". Now, I just ask myself when. I even hope that Europe will evneutally get smart. But we have just voted stupid patent laws for software. :(
Empires come and goes. Europe should be smart not to stay the vassal of the states.
The answer to your question is that Microsoft will set that for the industry. Going from their history, based on the Office licensing model, it sounds like you'll not be locked in per se, but you'll be penalized for not sticking with them. Not precisely a lock in, but just a strong incentive to stick with them.
As far as Sun goes, they won't be around to see it. Name me one software product that Sun has that you'd be willing to subscribe to get access to. Go on... I'm waiting...
This is all just Sun's line for the investors, buying time til their inevitable demise. Their hardware is being outpaced by IBM, they can't come close to IBM in professional services, and Microsoft dominates in the software arena.
Expect Intel/AMD boxes running Linux to continue to dissolve Sun's hardware margins, and Microsoft will prevent them from getting any kind of foot hold in software. Unless they completely re-invent themselves, they aren't going to be around for much longer.
This sig has been temporarily disconnected or is no longer in service
Computer hardware is a classic complement of computer operating systems. All else being equal, demand for a product increases when the prices of its complements decrease, Sun and Microsoft are software vendors so they want the iron to be free. It makes perfect sense for MS but I really don't understand what's going on with Sun. They want to stop being a hardware vendor to become exactly what? Where is their business model?
Free hardware is Good For America as opposed to free software which is Bad For America. It all makes perfect sense! (at least once you substitute "Sun" or "Microsoft" for "America")
More seriously, I think that Sun wants to downplay the significance of its getting out of the CPU business (as it seems). IMHO, hardware will not be free, but very cheap and there will be lots of reasons to buy your own gear even if you're a totally non-tech-savvy company that just wants a hassle-free mail-/file-/db-server (just ask any MS-dependent company with no tech skills how smoothly everything works with a standard Exchange server and regular service packs - which is today's equivalent of the subscription-based setups the article talks about). Not to mention that this model isn't going to work for people who use Free Software. Or for people, who don't want to depend on a single closed-source vendor ...
"I love my job, but I hate talking to people like you" (Freddie Mercury)
That's how Ma Bell used to work until the gov't put its foot down.
Two (opposing) thoughts:
1. Consumers are already getting used to the subscription model; they buy the anti-virus software and then pay a yearly subscription for updates. This seems to be a pretty widely accepted policy.
2. Some people (myself included) would be wary of "leasing" or "renting" hardware, because they'll want to know what will happen to "their" data when the hardware rental agreement expires. This would be especially problematic if there were some sort of DRM or other scheme that would prevent your using the hardware when the subscription was up. I don't see businesses going for that, either.
Interested in a Flash-based MAME front end? Visit mame.danzbb.com
Sure, you can charge me rent for GPL software.
But I can just stop paying, once I get a copy, you can't revoke my right to use it.
I can even give it to others.
this plan is to convert today's hardware/software usage, which is similiar to a condo (own the hardware, decorate the interior with the software of your choice) to the apartment model (rent everything). the consumer no long owns the space. they don't get to swap out the interior. you get the whole thing in one big package, which you don't own (marketing will say "Your creativity. Our worldwide platform." next to a headshot of a smiling kid or something) and you'll pay rent to Microsoft/SUN for the whole package. then next year, you'll pay slightly less for an 'upgrade' so you can play this year's games and use the new Photoshop which only runs on this year's model.
hardware shifts from building a decent machine you could run for 5 years to a disposable machine that is slightly better than last year's model. manufacturers will gear towards minimum cost instead of maximum performance. Dell's people will do the math on how many units they could ship every year if Microsoft can get people on a subscription plan.
the goal, of course, is to make more money, which they certainly will, if people are dumb enough to buy into it. Microsoft gets a) more, guarenteed revenue, b) a single platform to write software for, c) even more control.
That model still exists here in the UK -- although it's probably not very popular. My mother's a doctor and she has one corded phone that's provided by the phone company; the benefit for her is that if her phone &/ line breaks the company come around and fix it much faster (or so it appears)
Global symbol "$deity" requires explicit package name at line 2. - If only $scripture started "use strict;"
notice the apparent lack of any mention of the free software community
The whole impetus in the marketplace has been to continually grow the commoditised part of the computer.
Start from the x86 compatible CPU, move up through standard hardware such as ATA, SCSI, USB, PCI, etc., up through the BIOS.
Sun and MS would like for the line to stop right there.
But it doesn't have to.
The "commodity computer" ought to include a constantly growing set of standard pieces that anyone can take for granted, such as multi-tasking OS, a web server, an SQL server, etc.
Both companies really need to move up the food chain away not only from hardward, but up from the OS and generic software services. I think both Java and .NET are somewhat in this direction, but both companies seem to want to own the higher level interface and then milk it for cash in the same way that they have earlier for lower level parts of the computer.
"Provided by the management for your protection."
Sun and MS are software companies, obviously they will tell everyone the future is in software, not hardware.
MS is obviously a software company.
Sun wants to be a hardware company, but they are realizing they can't compete with the price performance of commodity x86 boxes.
Imagine how much effort the companies will put into this free hardware to make sure that it's of any Quality.
I see a big business in data backup and fried hard drive recovery in the future.
I would rather have to pay for the hardware and get free software. At least that way I can choose between cheap, loud, and hot versus cool and quiet.
You're correct that Microsoft "don't really have a stellar record with hardware" in Japan. In the United States and Europe, on the other hand, Xbox hardware sales run at least neck and neck with GameCube hardware sales.
There are 2 styles of subscriptions in the world today. The first is the "lease" style - you get a product for a low ongoing cost, and at the end of some period you own the product, or can trade it in for the next product version. During the lease, the product features remain static, and the value of the product decreases.
The second style is the "rent" style, you pay a fixed price for as long as you want to keep the product. Occasionally, the product may be upgraded (e.g. an apartment complex may install new energy efficient windows). When you no longer want the product, then you stop paying (although usually you have to commit to a period).
Given that software manufacturers want software subscriptions, which model do you think they prefer? Lets try and find some current examples...
Why do people lease cars? Because the prices are exhorbitant. Why would people lease a hardware and software combination? Is the price of those 2 combined exhorbitant? Are there any examples out there already?
What about Tivo? Combined software and hardware, together for a particular purpose, with a monthly subscription and a low initial cost. People are quite happy to pay a monthly subscription, even though the software remains static. This is not the "lease" style, it is the "rent" style. So, given that established corporations are spectacularly non-original entities, there is little likelihood that they will go for the lease style of subscriptions.
Given that, and using Tivo as a reference, what can we deduce? The hardware need not be upgradeable, and the software need only support a very limited capability to upgrade. In addition, the user will have little or no ability to alter or substitute the software themselves. Finally, the hardware/software unit will perform limited, specific functionality.
Perhaps it will be an "office" machine, with a word processor and a spreadsheet. Or a travel machine, or even a remote desktop machine, with no functionality of its own.
I am not entirely clear what Sun seeks to gain. Will corporations rent server appliances? Do they now? I don't know. Microsoft's focus is more obvious, since they have traditionally worked on the "client" side of things.
With regard to DRM, in the PC appliance world, it is a non-issue. If the appliance has no place for
an analogue output, and the software is not accessible, then the user has no way to access the content, except through the appliance.
Most writers regard truth as their most valuable possession, and therefore are most economical in its use - Mark Twain
I may be a lawyer, but IANAA (I am not an accountant). As best I can tell, depreciation is limited to tangible property (not software). There are two general classes of depreciable assets:
(1) Personalty - Tangible property other than land, buildings, or permanent additions or components of buildings.
and
(2) Realty - Tangible property that is either land, buildings, or permanent additions or components of buildings.
I don't see how software could be included in either of these categories, but obviously hardware would be considered Personalty (I checked MACRS and found that computers are given a 5 year depreciation schedule).
Any CPAs out there care to comment on whether software is eligible for depreciation and, if not, how important this would be for business planners?
The only way I can see this being broadly accepted by consumers of software is if you're not held hostage to your subscription vendor for future access to your content; i.e., the storage formats are completely open, so that when your current supplier pisses you off you can switch to another one without losing existing content.
All those who think this is a scenario that, say, Sun or Microsoft will champion, please line up outside the door on the right and wait to be seen by professional help.
Besides, the way things are going, the hardware needed to run Longhorn will not be "free" or anywhere close to it.
if i use ( freeBSD | linux ) on the desktop, and am happy with a PII, then my hardware is already ~free. so is my software. in the future i can look forward to free hardware and paid-for software?
..., well, that's fine too.
that's not an improvement.
i suspect (hope) that in time both will be freee, or rather, software free, and usable hardware very cheap. of course, if you want cutting edge so you can have transparency and 3d windows and
(null)
Most convenient, I can certainly understand, but #2 was cheaper than #4? Sign me up!
Look at the Direct TV offers. You get all of the hardware AND installation for free, if you sign up for X number of months OR you subscribe to these particular channels.
Minor point, but I thought it was 2-pair RJ-11 that we have now? With RJ-45 being the 4-pair ethernet style adapter?
RJ-11 Jacks, you mean. RJ-45 are the net connectors. Kropla.
the major advances in civilization are processes which all but wreck the societies in which they occur - A.N. White
Hardware, in this context, will be no more "free" than your cable box.
Someday, companies will realize consumers are really tired of monthly subscriptions. How many cable, satelite radio, cellphone, and ISP bills do they think the market will actually stand?
This is my post. There are many others like it. If you don't like what you read here, go try one of the others.
About nine years ago, I wanted to lease a computer or put it on an installment plan, but the salesperson on the other end of the telephone line told me sorry, those options were made available only to select organizations such as governments, educational institutions, and the n biggest companies as reported by FORTUNE magazine.
Wasn't PeoplePC the first to lease computers to residential customers?
This subscription wackiness comes up every so often. And it fails.
Now just as the Free Software community is making obvious headway, a ostrich-like voice, muffled by the sand of the hole it's been stuffed in, says "Things are not going in the direction everyone can see. No sir! Things are getting more like they used to be than they are even today!" -- Ah, Bill...
Jonathan Schwartz, on the other hand, is flailing around. His hardware business is in trouble, and instead of fixing the problems, he thinks a complete abdication is in order. Apple tried this under Sculley.
Schwartz is apparently a dufuss.
Free Software, Free Hardware!
Don't know if it's that salvation or destruction of modern society.
True friends are hard to come by... I need more money. - Calvin
if they had any sense they'd be positioning themselves to provide services and software further up the software stack, above the commodity level. unfortunately, they have no sense.
pr0n - keeping monitor glass spotless since 1981.
yep. same in australia. telstra used to rent you the phone for sod all but their phones were corded. of course cordless phones sold for more and people were prepared more and also telstra started selling all manner of services from call waiting to voicemail etc etc. the mobile phone market shows how you can give the phones away for almost nothing with a contract and for a small fortune without. all over the world the pre-paid options are amazing ripoffs - an indirect tax for the billions that the cell phone networks paid for their 3g licences.
i am looking forward to some sort of store and forward p2p ah-hoc phone to hone network that works in realtime using crowds to enhance, not sap the network. most people's phones are not in use more than 5% of the day, and are well within transmit range from hundreds more in any decent sized city or pub. someone(s) should make an opensource phone-os for lots of phone platforms that you can use to reset your gsm phones and go p2p and free us all from the networks.
I used to have a better sig than this, but I got tired of it
free hardware + free software (open source, etc.)
hmmm...I think it's a bad idea...for them...and for the rest of us as well.
Kind of like how gaming consoles(XBOX) are supposed to be, but Linux still exists on the platform. Although I admit it might not be entirely legal.
Creative Demolition
Sounds like the playstation-model.
Sell the console under the price and make the [profit from the games.
There is only one thing I think about.
Hack Furby, TiVo extentions, Linux on a playstation etc etc.
And there is 'free' software.
This is probably where DRM enters the stage...
Privacy is terrorism.
NONE of these billionaires gets it, zero of them near as I can see. they think they got some magic formulae to keep the gravy train on track, and I got a clue by four for them, they done MADE all the billions they are gonna make off the desktop and small server market. People are gonna hang on to their hardware for longer, and when they "upgrade" it's going going to be real cheap-not free, cheap, BUT software will be free in it's basic forms. F R DOUBLE E FREE. *Customisation* of software and keeping it running smooth will be the only significant costs involved to business, and it is where programmers, sysadmins and sorts like that will find credible employment. To joe home user, zero costs beyond paying for media OS and apps disks perhaps, say 10$ or something. And that's it. Everyone out there now is starting to hear about free software and linux and whatnot, at least it's entered their consciousness. Those who adapt early will make it, those who struggle to maintain "buggywhip inc" are gonna suffer. Just like the music and movie middlemen skimmers, "buggywhip inc" is gonna put them out of business, just they refuse to see it. And they-they being these huge companies who made it when there was little competition and it was new and shiny- made a few hundred billion in ten years, that should be *enough* to go on, look for some other business or go play tennis or something. We need to get back to real business, not keep insisting the tool business is the real business. People are gonna gradually stop making these guys multi billionaires. Of course they hates it, but their megalomania won't allow them to see it. Right nowe anyway they aren't seeing it, eventually they'll wake up one day, go to give some drone an order, and they will be all alone, the last drone will have slipped out the door in the middle of the night to go rejoin the normal human race.
and thus spaketh zogathustra
BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!
pretty damn badly.
What's the standard warranty on a console system these days? You're lucky to get 60 days. But they'll charge you 25-50% the purchase price again, for another two years.
What's the standard way of getting it repaired? Ship it off to the factory. With the exception of Nintendo, "licensed repair centers" that you could take it to and get it back fixed in 1-2 days don't exist any more. And even with Nintendo, they're only in big cities.
Plus, when the console goes obsolete, don't expect backwards compatibility on the next one either. The PS2's backwards compatibility, lest we forget, was a colossal fluke. The only machine with any back compatibility to speak of, it seems, has been the Game Boy.
The more "free" you get something, the shittier service you can expect of it, and the worse/more breakage-prone product as they cut every possible corner on the device.
I wonder if I can convince my boss to let me have a Starcat 15K in my cube :-)
Jebus, Sun what are you? Hardware company? Software company? Or just the worlds most successful ponzi scheme? Sun wants to be the software/services company becouse they see IBM making the transformation and making cash doing it. MickySoft makes tons of money on software in fact enough money on winBlows and Office to pay for all their other loosing projects; and yes they are loosing. Its amazing how sun claims to be a friend of open source yet understand it so little. The Bull is out of the chute, the lunatics are running the hospital. Open source is here to stay. Free Software ( and yes I use the terms interchangbly) will drive down software costs to nothing. Thus the only thing people will spend money on are Hardware, and Services. Hmmm.. what does IBM sell? Hardware and Services? Jebus. What sun needs to do is start selling the best hardware possible and turn that into smaller services deals. Of course they are tied to SPARC, which is a nice chip, but development moves like a glaciaer on Ludes compared to the X86 platform. Now with both intel and AMD kicking into 64 bit chips SPARC is loosing its last edge. Hardware will not be free, suns software has never been that good, if they dont smarten up fast they are going to be just another footnote in this great valley.
Question: What did you pay for your last cellphone? Ok, maybe the /. crowd did pay a little bit for theirs, but it sure wasn't full retail price.
Betcha any amount of money my wife, mom, mother-in-law, stupid coworkers, friends daughter all got the free phone... even if it didn't have all the features they would have liked (how do people copy over contacts without IR or bluetooth?)
--D
Apple will never be a subscription based Software Company.
Sorry, but the iPod/iTunes/iTMS triad should give one a quick clue to this.
Apple is developing Software that adds value to its hardware and future hardware products that make it not just an alternative to other established standards.
Schwartz has limited success with Lighthouse Design and somehow he's the cats meow with SUN? It's a good thing those of us once at NeXT and Apple weren't too impressed with the man. Since his eventual sellout to SUN, Schwartz has steadily rose to the top at SUN while SUN's presence has steadily bottomed out.
The front page of Sun's website has a gif that says you can get a free server by being a Java Enterprise Developer, and links to this: http://developers.sun.com/offers/jedevpromo/index. html
I guess they could wait to start their subcription based hardware
Sun management had lost any kind of vision or strategy.
For the whole history of Sun its success hinged on three things:
1. Make decent hardware and sell it at realistic price.
2. Write software that works best on your hardware, makes it useful and justifies its use for the customer, however don't try to sell it at the price that will make the whole hardware+software package unaffordable.
3. No matter how shitty the first release of software is, continue the development until it's either the best thing in its class, or clearly a failure.
The exact opposite of those things (except for "make decent hardware") was the strategy of Digital, and we know how they ended up.
Sun makes inconsistent moves -- bought Cobalt, then messed up with its product line at the extent that there was nothing left that they would need Cobalt for in the first place, and dropped products that could be continued with minor improvements. Bought Star Division, and released OpenOffice, yet still continues anti-open source crusade that seems to accomplish nothing but insulting Sun's best customers' engineers. Wrote Java to be portable, yet got into a worthless cross-licensing agreement with Microsoft that can produce nothing but non-portable software. And so on, and on and on, conflicting moves, defeating each other.
Did anyone hire Rick "Companies Assassin" Belluzzo there, by any chance?
Contrary to the popular belief, there indeed is no God.
The only way the system would work is if Microsoft won and managed to buy out all other software major companies. One of the biggest problems is the simple fact not everyone uses a computers for the same thing. Most of us customize our machines in some way whether with hardware combinations or software combinations. Cookie cutter computers don't appeal to serious computer people. What the concept really speaks to is the fear of the software companies. Four to five years is more likely their prediction of when they'll start running out of upgrades. I'm still using Office 97, and I rarely use it these days. People are starting to realize the software does what I need it to do. Why upgrade? The software companies are desperate to go to a license only system. The are fast approaching market saturation and don't want to see their profits start to drop. Unfortunately what will happen is new hardware will come out and to be compatible with our favorite software we'll be forced into their license schemes when we upgrade. It'll be like drug companies hooking you on addictive drugs because once you are cured you don't need to buy their drugs. Has anyone else noticed that all the new drugs are geared towards "treatment" not cure? Why cure some one once when you can treat them forever? Which is the better business model? Expect all the larger companies to go to yearly licenses within five years. As far as Gates predictions his batting average sucks. So far he managed to blow off the internet and search engines as unimportant. After everyone else got on board he decided he wanted to drive the train. Gates is the great follower. He's not the leader or visionary.
Indeed, if this does happen the general-purpose PC will become a rarity and thus go back to being really expensive. Good for Microsoft (and Sun, I suppose) but bad for everyone else.
It'll be a case of running Microsoft Windows on "free" hardware for a modest yearly subscription or paying 2000+ for an "open" PC to run free (as in speech or beer) software. Sadly, I think we can all guess which of these most people would choose given current trends.
Ever notice it's software vendors that extol the virtue of "free hardware, paid software subscriptions", while hardware vendors are talking about "free software, purchased hardware"? You think it's a coincidence? (and I know Sun makes hardware too, but it's less of an issue since they started using x86 architecture)
Microsoft loves the subscription model. I would, too, if I were in their shoes. Look at all the companies who have been paying for years for "upgrade assurances" on WindowsXP, and will be paying for years more before Longhorn comes up. In the mean time, they pay Microsoft for nothing. You think Microsoft would be trying to get Longhorn out the door by even 2006 if they could trap people into subscription services?
And of course, Sun will try to ally itself with Microsoft. Every software manufacturer who is having a hard time staying far enough ahead of Linux to keep people from switching over, they're all looking to Microsoft for a way out.
It's a real problem, coming down to an intellectual property dilemma: How do you charge for intellectual property products in the digital age, where copying is so easy and costs practically nothing? Do you A) not charge, and/or let people copy, which makes it difficult for those producing "intellectual property" (which is of value to the society) to make a living off of their work, and therefore makes such work less likely to be produced; or B) Use DRM and patents; restrict use, access, and knowledge; sue anyone you can; destroy the concept of "fair use"; and try to make "intellectual property" about making people pay for even remembering a song or being inspired by a design choice.
Many people go to one camp or another, the law seems to be trying to balance in-between, often heading towards option B more than most of us would like. Some people are enjoying the fruits of living in a world with both sides of an argument (Redhat, IBM, SuSE, etc.). Really, though, we haven't come up with a solution to the dilemma. We don't currently have a single "good" way of doing things that combines the both of best worlds.
All this "software subscription" stuff is part of this argument- an offshoot of the dilemma. It's software makers trying to say, "When you buy software, you aren't paying for the media it comes on, you aren't buying the software. You aren't buying a license to use the software as you see fit. You are temporarily renting the right to use the software in a subscribed manner and on our terms." Believe me, if Microsoft can get away with it, they'll charge you for each reboot, key pressed, document saved, and image displayed. After that, they'll try to figure out how to charge you for NOT using their software.
I want to own my hardware and run what *I* want, when I want.
I dont want an over glorified, rented toaster.
---- Booth was a patriot ----
We have a $xx,xxx annual subscription to the Bloomberg Professional service (think: closed, "semantic web" network dedicated to the world of finance). When you're paying that kind of money, is it any surprise that they'll throw in a computer with the deal? Of course, they are actually providing a service (their vast, continuously updated database), whereas an OS or a static piece of software is essentially a product.
Bill Clinton: Pimp we can believe in. - The Shirt!!!
Adam Osborne said in the early 1980's that hardware would be free, and we'd just buy software.
I guess it's a slow news day.
-jcr
The only title of honor that a tyrant can grant is "Enemy of the State."
My world, besides being round, also has a blue sky.
Even if this comes to pass, that software is what you subscribe too, I suspect apple will make the transition. NeXT had a go at this and had a limited success.
???
I've been a NeXT developer since 1989, and I have no idea what you're talking about here. When did NeXT try a subscription model for software?
-jcr
The only title of honor that a tyrant can grant is "Enemy of the State."
> To those who say "owning your own place is so much more secure," I
> have two questions:
Buy if you are paying on a mortgage you are still BUYING a house. It isn't yours yet. Some of us aren't crazy enough to live in CA where owning isn't an option, only paying forever. I finally bought last year and expect to be paid off around the end of the decade by making extra payments as often as I am able.
Compare the economics of that situation if money gets tight.
Monthly payments: utilities & food, optionally continue homeowners ins.
Taxes: $50/year in city paxes, zero state due to homestead exemption
Oh, and as for homeowner's associations, if you have to join one of those, read teh paperwork a little closer. You don't actually OWN anything, the holding corp that runs the "hownowners association" has first claim on all the property in your subdivision. Would never be dumb enough to do that.
Democrat delenda est
You use the term "Apple model" seemingly without understanding what the "Apple model" really is.
Let me describe it to you - the "Apple model" is a somewhat expensive but pleasant merry-go-round ride - if at any point you get tired of the opulance, you are free to return to the litter-strewn streets of reality.
Example. The hardware is all standard. It has a PCI bus, uses pretty standard memory, uses standard USB/Firewire periphrials. If I tire of OS X for some reason, I can in fact leave anytime I like and run Linux on it. The box is not locked down that way at all - and I am not force to buy Apple hardware for expansion in any way. In a "Console model' which is what you were suggesting, everything is custom - like the non-standard USB ports on an XBox (interestingly the standard USB ports on the PS2 are one reason I chose that platform originally, so I could use a normal keyboard/mouse with it, so there can be exceptions).
Second Example. Apple software. If you use iTunes, you can at any time burn any protected songs to CD (or in reality juust use HYMN to deprotect them) and step off the merry-go-round. If you use iPhoto it keeps all of your photos in real files in a subdirectory, not some custom database - super easy to stop using and move all the files elsewhere, even files from a user-defined category. If you use iMovie all of your clips are bog standard video files that anything else can use. In all cases if you tire of the convience offered or outgrow the system (as many serious photographers do with iPhoto), you are free to move on.
We should all pray that the industry adopts the "Apple standard" as you put it, instead of ridiculing this very consumer-friendly approach. I think you were right about attempts to "consolize" the PC market though, it's just that you started out with an unnessicary and incorrect dig at Apple, who is trying to help you. When they do "consoleize" all other PC's with trusted BIOSes, you know where you can turn to...
I also worry about the attempt to make everything you do work by rental. But I don't think customers will stand for it, so I think they can only take the thing so far before customers use non-rental alternatives instead. Look at how popular pay-as-you go cell phone plans are becoming, I know a number of people who have gone that way.
"There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
YHBT.
Comparing it to Windows will be a moot point, since El Dorado is going to have a 40% larger code base than XP.
I was thinking that this didn't adequately answer the question of how a company would deal with manufacturing and distribution of free hardware. Software, having fewer raw materials and a simpler distribution model, makes more sense.
But then I thought about how phone companies have come up with a model where the hardware is "free" and you pay for the service. A lot of people just get whatever phone comes with their mobile plan. So why hasn't this worked for computers? PeoplePC tried it and gave up. Is it that ISPs/ASPs don't want to deal with being hardware retailers, or do consumers just want the added choice and customization that they get from selecting their own computers?
Your fantasies contain the seeds of important concepts.
The drawback is, she can't fix it herself - and is at the mercy of the phone company.
Similarly, we will be at the mercy of the companies that make the hardware and provide it for 'free'. There will be little impetus to continue standards - as a hardware 'lock-in' under such circumstances will be very beneficial for the corporations.
If broadly embraced by all hardware manufacturers, this could spell the end of open source. However, the likelyhood of all manufacturers embracing this model is a slim proposition, imho.
Lodragan Draoidh
The more you explain it, the more I don't understand it. - Mark Twain
This is like saying: In the future, food will be free, you will pay for a recipe subscription instead.
So, let me get this straight. The product with a non-zero marginal cost to produce (hardware) will be free, yet the product with a zero marginal cost will not be free? Something seems a bit wrong with that logic.
with cell phones? You pay for the service, get a 2 year contract, and get your phone for hundreds of dollars less than you would pay for it alone.
--the earliest phones I remember as a kid where hard wired, no jack at all, and they didn't have a dial. Heavy suckers. One of my grandmas had one of the old crank phones, where the mouth piece was on the phone on the wall, you grabbed the single earphone and held it up to your ear, and you cranked it to get the operators attention. We had a normal looking phone though, just no dial. You just picked up the phone, if someone was yakking on it (no one had a dedicated phone, they were all party lines with like 6 houses on each circuit) you asked when they would be done. You picked up a few minutes later, and the operator came on, you gave her-and it always was a her- a number, or just told her a name if it was local. Payphones had dials and cost a nickle. Hardly anyone had a TV yet(we were the first in the neighborhood to get one), but everyone had a big ole tube job radio in the living room and some sort of record player. Those radios threw more heat then the next 10 AMD boxes put together. Smokin! They'd pull the stations though, almost all of them had built in shortwave and commercial AM, there wasn't any FM yet. Not that I remember anyway. I LOVED them things. Had a big ole grundig was my gateway to the world at night, had wires all over my ceiling in my room.
.22 rifle was around 12$. A one speed old heavy bike was about 25$, had enough steel in it to build two harleys I think. Not sure on new car prices back then other than below one grand for a decent one. I know the first house we lived in cost my dad 100$ downpayment, and it was brand spanking new, 3 bedroom ranch with a nice yard in a nice neighborhood. He had a ten year mortgage (I asked him later to find out), which was very common then.
And movies were 25 cents and the only place that had air conditioning. Cokes were a nickle. A new
It's not going to be that way. Hardware breaks. It needs support, it needs replacing. Software does not, indeed, replacing software with better software often breaks things and should be done with care in a working system.
The only question is exactly when Sun jumped the shark.
I say Java. So goodbye Sun, but thanks for the Java, it's nice.
-pyrrho
In Capitalist Scotland a COO is something that says MOO
"If you think nobody cares if you're alive, try missing a couple of car payments." Earl Wilson
The there is no middleman, no retail channel, no distributor, no salespersons devoted to selling to the customer.
I.e. there is no way for a consumer to purchase anything "high end".
I.e. for a normal consumer with some tech-savvy it may not be possible to get hardware without buying a subscription and therefore signing away all rights to invention in a EULA!
I.e. this is a way of the (big) computer industry eliminating any competitors!
This is the exact opposite to the commodization of computers (hardware and software).
If people get sucked in then they deserve what they get!
--end of hyperbole---
Really don't you want to be able to spend a K on a computer at the end of the street without having to have a subscription? Does this not sound like locked phones on compatible but arbitrarily un-interchangeable cell networks? Look at that mess!
THey do so because they can not aford to pay for a house or car in cash.
You do realize there is a difference between a lease and car loan. At the end of the lease you don't own the car, whereas at the end of the loan you do.
IBM had this model in it's hayday and they almost lost their bearings as a result. They slowly started to act like a finance company and were so tied to the "installed base" mentality that they missed all the new markets. Mini computers, Fault tolerant computing, Storage networks, etc etc. They went into copiers, sattelite networks, and telecom (ROLM) in an effor to "leverage" the leasing model not for any technological reason.
Akers et al spend more time of predicting future interest rates than future technologies.They only survived as their 80% market share made cost of entry for the likes of Amdahl and Fujitsu too expensive.
Help fight continental drift.
It was the eventual result of removing "foreign attachment" restrictions from the tarrif.
I can't wait! Please ship my new maximally-configured G5 tower to me and I'll put it up on the network as godot.screaming.org as soon as I get it!
The "cue the foo posts in 3, 2, 1..." posts will commence with no subsequent foo posts in 3, 2, 1...
Give me a Sunfire. I'll install the software myself.
I think it was deregulation when BT was split off from the GPO.
Seems to me this business model has been attempted before. It works well when the pace of improvement in hardware and software is slow enough to allow the subscription time to be worth it. For example, if Cadence' latest version won't run on two-year-old hardware, and the subscription period is five years, guess what's going to happen to the subsciption? It also works well when the cost of the hardware is covered by internal savings - rather than added to the subscription or service fees (think about those little FedEx machines).
It might work well for Sun, whose vision of this is rather narrow. With respect to their servers, based on their current model, we have an appliance (as others have termed it) server - hardware very specifically designed for the task of running their server software. What I can't tell from the news blurb is whether the hardware remains the property of Sun, they have the responsibility of maintaining and upgrading it, or the property of the consumer -- maintenance and upgrade is a service cost.
Which scenario seems more likely:
1) Sun or Microsoft replaces hard drives when customers need more file storage space. Sun or Microsoft ships out new memory chips and new CPUs and new cases as necessary to keep up with technology. Sun or Microsoft handles all installation, updating and upgrading of hardware and drivers to keep the "free" hardware current.
2) Sun or Microsoft ships the minimal necessary components to run the package it sells for a price that includes the cost plus profit. Any need for better hardware is routed through to a service department that sells the drivers and installation for a price that includes the "free" hardware.
Sun and Microsoft may find a market niche of consumers and business willing to be tied into a long-term contract in exchange for "free" hardware, but the hardware market in general won't disappear because there are just too many consumers who aren't willing to be assimilated.
I was taking one day at a time, but then several days got together and ambushed me. (from a Rhymes with Orange comic)
When I buy a piece of hardware, at least here in Spain, I buy the right to do whatever I want with it.
Recently a judge stated that modifying the hardware was perfectly legal, even if the warranty was then voided, of course, in a trial about the X-Box and the chips to execute non-authorized software (Linux, in this case).
If hardware is gratis, would it be free of rights for the owner too? With the rise of GNU/Linux and the free software community, gratis hardware plus free software is an unstopable combo.
DON'T PANIC
DIVX... (the rental movie player scheme not the codec)
I think they are forgeting that people will pay for freedom. If your 'free' hardware makes me a slave to your foolish whims, i'll gladly buy my way our of it.
Nah, what I'm seeing in this thread is a lot of discussion about the grand implications of this idea on the software industry as a whole, when really you have to remember that this is only Sun we're talking about. Just because Jonathan Schwartz thinks something doesn't mean the rest of the industry is going to go along with it. Nevertheless, Schwartz is going to continue to put out the market message that makes the most sense for Sun.
Apple has long had a sort of internal argument over what kind of company it is. Is it a software company or is it a hardware company? Sun has had a similar thing going over the years, but unlike Apple, what we're seeing now is that one side has actually won over the other. Sun wants to be a software company now, and that's that.
And if you look at it, of course that's the right strategy for Sun. It's seeing the market share of its hardware business constantly eroded by the Intel platform, and it's consistently had to decrease the margins on its hardware to compete.
On the other hand, it's got this software technology, Java, that it wants to be the foundation of software development in the future. It's working its butt off to get Java away from being trapped on servers and into consumer devices, cell phones, handhelds, etc. It still very much wants Java to be everywhere. It's even planning a consumer branding effort behind Java as a platform.
So obviously Sun's message is going to be software. Because in Sun's ideal world, not only will it be selling its own software products directly, but by extension, everybody else's software will be a Sun product, because of Sun's control of Java.
Breakfast served all day!
People should go back to work, since this is obvious more BS from corporate america. By having MS and SUN claim the same thing, they hope it will convince analysts it's true. If the financial analysts are that stupid, then they'll believe it. Some how I think it won't fool everyone, or even a small percentage. Just a few brain dead analysts paid by MS and SUN to spew out what ever they want.
You burn to device /dev/DVDR has been blocked due to licensing restrictions, and the mounted device in /dev/USB has been erased for your protection. Please provide a credit card number and $20 "unlock fee" to continue.
"There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
Your honor, we aren't locking the PC into windows only with Palladium! We are giving the customers the hardware free with a subscription to Windows!
And our new best friends SUN are doing the same thing so it's really not antitrust!
So I get the free hardware with an assumed name, format it and put whatever free software on it I want. With some MAC spoofing and maybe some agressive pf rules the hardware 'dissapears' into the ether and the company tries to track down Santos L Halper.
Of course, going after somebody for breach of contract because they changed their OS would probably not be very successful if you're already a convicted OS monopolist.
This model is pure idiocy. Once you put something in the hands of an end user, you lose control over what they do with it. If you're depending on them to play ball you're gonna strike out.
What about moores law about computer speeds?
If noone/less where to pay directly for the hardware, the run to get the best gfx card/cpu/whatever out grinds to a halt, as the companies see their base of customers dissapear at an alarming rate. If noone where to choose the hardware but instead only choose software many products that we see today would never stand a chance.
Kinda like picturing every computer made Dell style.
This resulting in a significant loss of evolution in the hardware marked that would have a severe effect on the consumer.
But if only a small amount of consumers where to pay for this new hardware the run would still not be as great, there would be no contest really.
Theese are of course, all only MY crazy theories. Judge for yourselves.
In context, that's what they are saying, whether they realize it or not (and no doubt they imagine that they are impressing folks with their positions of power).
THEIR hardware. Sun, Microsoft. Those are two companies. So to say "hardware will be free" is taken out of context (and let's see how they feel about other things being taken out of context). The context is GOING to be "OUR hardware comes free with the software".
There is nothing wrong with offering services, your vision of services; offering innovations that your firm has put together to deliver a stronger value proposition to the consumer (or whatever) - of course that's fine. But to say that everyone is going to follow your lead, when that is obviously not going to be the case shows a remarkable ignorance of the market, and incredible corporate pressure on the market researchers to deliver rosy research.
By using the money to have the outcomes look favorable to themselves, these corporations are actually crippling themselves, because they are no longer looking at reality, but they are buying statistics and facts that the people whom they are paying to do the research think that they want to see.
Again, there is nothing wrong with offering hardware for free, or as part of the software licensing agreements, save for potentially environmental issues. I, for instance, have a Pentium 2 at 300 Mhz that runs FreeBSD 4.9 just fine, and although it's not my "main" computer, it works just fine, and it's fully functional, not in a landfill somewhere. So aside from the recycling of computer parts, which is actually a good thing, if any company wants to offer a "hardware for free" deal, why not? It's probably not going to be very popular idea unless you can somehow force or coerce people into the deal. How can some of the largest computer firms in the world not realize that the sales pitches are going to get a lot more difficult as computers become something that we take for granted, and as millions of individuals experience constant, daily frustration with viruses and other software inadequacies that amongst other things, create financial and human resource burdens on the end-user? Perhaps they pay researchers millions of dollars to produce research that says otherwise?
It seems that some of these folks somehow think that the rest of the world will follow what they do, even though they completely refuse to follow, much less pay attention, to the rest of the world.
Just recently it became known that Intel had reverse-engineered an AMD chip, This is a sign of progress - it's a sign that anyone who wants to put in an honest day's work, that anyone who wants to succeed, can. It just shows how far AMD has come, and how strong of an organization it is. This is a good thing; it's a wonderful, powerful success story, and having your chip reverse-engineered by Intel is actually, in a sense, probably quite an honor.
The truth is something I think most of us can see, but I won't repeat it here, maybe it's better to just let it play out.
Well, know from Sun's past genius that hardware will definately be free in the future....just like Linux will never be as good as Solaris.
Next went from selling hardware to selling software. it's effectively a subscrition model but without the free hardware part. But from the companies perspective the product they produce is software in either case,
Which means that now you are required to pay for the maintenance and upkeep of your phone wires instead of the phone company being responsible for it. Which has good and bad sides, I guess.
I have a lot of opinions about Cyborgs and Architects
Cue Cat
Free Hardware? OK, I'll take a 2.5 Ghz laptop, a dual 2.0 gig server box with 1.5 gigs of RAM.....
RJ-11 Jacks, you mean. RJ-45 are the net connectors
Net connectors? Strange... at work we use these "net connectors" for lots of devices that will never see the "net". RJ-45 is just a type of plug. There are phones that take RJ-45. The most common use for RJ-45 is network cables, but it is not the only use (or anywhere near the only use). Same goes for RJ-11
From your web site: RJ-45 phone plug
Casual Games/Downloads
We will still have machines to run our software
Until they break. Eventually, all moving parts in an environment with friction wear out. Every modern PC has one or more of the following:
Have they bothered to run this "hardware will be free" business by the actual hardware manufacturers and their suppliers? Last I checked, it takes time and money to design hardware, harvest the raw materials, assemble it, and get it to the consumer.
No, I don't think hardware will be free anytime soon, thank you very much!
What Sun and Microsoft want is basically corporate based communism: They control all of the private property in the market, the consumer controls none. They get to dictate how the consumer uses the product, controlling every aspect.
Carterphone sued to be able to connect customer-owned equipment to the telephone network. Once that sailed through the courts (heh) the market was opened up for cheap phone equipment.
Just the end to warez and code your own adventures.
The end to "code your own adventures" (as you seem to refer to free software) would mean only this.
For the vast majority of people their vision for computer use would be more comforting. The human mind ussually isn't goot at more then 5 or 6 choices.
What if somebody invents a brand new killer app, but you're still locked into a contract with your current PC vendor that doesn't include that killer app? Such would have been the case at the start of the consumer desktop video editing era. Because PCs are general-purpose, users could just install stripped-down video editing and effects software. With locked-down rental PCs, on the other hand, they would have to wait to re-up their PC leases before using such a killer app.
I want some of whatever these guys are smokin'!
One of my friends got a "home"
computer from the company he works at.
The company he works at has contract
with a company that sells "packages"
of comuters. Kinnda like DELL.
The funny thing is that he did not
even recieve a "recovery" CD with it.
Instead he got a physically locked
partition with MS Win on it...
This is in Europe...
and given microsoft's track record, this will be... oh... never ;-)
"Free" hardware sounds just like the Cable TV market. The cable company sells you a subscription to their service, which is a package of content. They set up a black box in your house to receive and display this content. And you continue to receive this content as long as you pay your monthly fee.
This model works because no one gives a damn about their cable box; they care about the content. Most people do care about the specs of their computer, but only because they must to ensure that their software runs. The software is the important part. And nowadays most of that software is networked.
Do you think that there isn't a significant population out there that wouldn't subscribe to an all-in-one service that provides internet connectivity, hardware, client software and reliable data storage?
Oh please, I used shorthand. What is the average reader going to think of when you call an RJ-45 "the net connector"? They're going to get the idea, right?
Excessive precision in language when not warranted results in verbosity and pomposity.
the major advances in civilization are processes which all but wreck the societies in which they occur - A.N. White
The heads of two software companies say that their market isn't going to disappear and everybody else's in the industry will. Hardly surprising.
Recall that Sun is now pretty much a software company since their SPARCs can't compete with high-volume PC hardware.
Besides, they both missed the boat by about five years: Software is already Free.
"Nine times out of ten, starting a fire is not the best way to solve the problem." - my wife
The PS2's backwards compatibility WAS a fluke. It came about when they realized that one of the auxiliary chips being used (the memory controller chip, if I remember correctly) was virtually identical to the PSX's corresponding chip, and that with a MINIMUM of work and fuss they could make the thing backwards compatible.
That's why the PS2 doesn't do happy things like AA on PSX games, and why the only noticeable change when running a PSX game on PS2 is the cleaned-up sound because the midi files are fed through the PS2's superior midi engine.
They certainly didn't start out with backwards compatibility in mind, however.
I don't think it'll play out 100% like Schwarz and Gates claim, but there is definitely a kernel of truth to it. Microsoft is looking to the XBox to become the PC replacement, and most of the big iron vendors are pushing service oriented architectures that will enable asset management to be outsourced. All of these will be subscription-based.
The exceptions will be consumers and companies who buy *cheap* hardware and use *free* (non-subscription) software.
We would just love to hack this free hardware to put free software on it!
If they're serious, they won't allow the market to reject this. The will get laws passed that make it ILLEGAL not to play their game. I.e. - if you want to use a computer, you must use a DRM enabled, approved machine. Which will only be available as loans from companies. Anyone using anything else is illegally using an unlicensed computational device, and subject to fines and imprisonment.
Any time really large companies can't get what they want from the market place, they look elsewhere. And thanks to the influence money has on elections, they often get what they want. That's why large companies are so unbelievably bad for a free market system.
"I object to doing things that computers can do." -- Olin Shivers, lispers.org
IBM thinks software will be free. They make hardware.
Sun/Microsoft think hardware will be free. They make software.
I ordered my free pc the other day. Still waiting on it.
Toddlers are the stormtroopers of the Lord of Entropy.
Reuters quotes Schwartz: 'In our world, you will subscribe to the software and the hardware is free.'
Note that you subscribe "to the software", not maintenance or documentation or training.
I think this tells you pretty much what Sun thinks about open source software and how they are using it. As if you needed any other indication after they went back on their promise of ANSI/ISO standardization of Java, hijacked the Gnome desktop with proprietary components, and are generally badmouthing Linux and open source to their customers. And keep in mind that this is the company that started out by turning BSD UNIX into a highly proprietary system.
Where is the proof though? Declining prices of hardware will eventually get to zero? This mistake was already made for the demand curve of computer products. Back in the days of the computer boom, managers believed that the demand for computers and computer products was so high that the demand was treated as INFINITE! Turned out the the limit of demand did exist, and computers wasted away in warehouses.
The same thing will happen to hardware prices, their lower limit will be reached and going underneath that limit will be prohibitedly expensive. Also, raw materials that make hardware will fluctuate in price as well, causing a less than free situation, especially since the price of software will reflect the raw price paid by the manufacturer for the hardware.
Use some common sense Gates and Sun. Just because your software appears to be the defining factor in hardware systems doesn't mean it's all important. Already the OpenSource movement has shown hardware to be the defining price factor, it is possible now to buy a computer system and get the software for free. Why would we buy your software and get shackled into using your hardware as well?
The Widget
Why would I pay for software that an infinite amount of monkeys could crank out in a billion years? StickyWidget
I don't like the headaches of the software or hardware.
I only want buy a cheap shuttle Alpha Server 21164 800 MHz, 256 MiB PC133 with old 64 bit AT&T Unix-clone.
It's not a P4 3.4 GHz EE 1 GiB DDR2-533 with newer Windows Server 2005 Enterprise Edition.
open4free ©
I'm sure you'll still have to pay something for the hardware on eBay.
Sun: "Bill Gates and I agree that within four to five years the only company allowed to make money in the world should be..."
MS: "Us!"
Sun: "No, US!"
MS: "No, US!!!"
etc...
I think the hardware manufactures should offer more free software - pretty soon everything will be free
The entire business model over the last 10 years of Micrsoft has been aimed at moving users to a software rental model where the hardware is proprietary and dedicated to running Microsoft software. The cost of the hardware is not really free, of course, but its cost will be included in the subscription to the software. If it were not for Linux, Microsoft would have already arrived at its destination and Windows XP would have probably been the first rental version of Windows. Windows XP contacts Microsoft computers in a a variety of ways that make perfect sense if the user is a renter and Microsoft owns it. Microsoft could then easily de-activate Windows XP when the user didn't pay the rent, much as it deactivates if the user doesn't register or if the hardware is changed.
The rapid development of Linux in the last 3 years, however, has hindered the Microsoft plans because there is no rental charge for Linux and Linux is now able to provide many of the most important capabilities as Windows. Linux also supports quite a wide variety of hardware, thanks to the hard work of a lot of device driver coders.
The only other alternative to Windows is Macintosh and the hardware is already very closely tied to the software on that platform, making the implementation of a software rental model relatively easy, as soon as Microsoft goes to it.
Anyone else afraid that if that hardware becomes "free" or rather part of a software service contract, that you would not own the hardware, but rather liscense it, and that within tbat contract would likely be a clause that if the hardware is used for an unauthorized purpose, or with unauthorized software, the company could disable or otherwise deprive you of use of the hardware, while still forcing you to pay for the software until the end of the contract?
laws will prevent free hardware from becoming a reality. Free HW will go well with Free software though and that will be another reason why you won't get it - someone will resell the free hardware after changing the software...
Hardware companies are supposedly taking the value out of software by adopting open source, and software companies are trying to take the value out of hardware by giving it away.
Seems like this will leave Sun in an interesting situation when they can't sell hardware (because Microsoft is giving it away) and they can't sell software (because IBM, et al are offering alternatives to Java Desktop for free).
`which fortune`
you know that hardware is going to be standard and suck. it's like giving everyone the same crappy car, and charging more for gas to pay for it.
...neither of them very good.
The first possible outcome is that the rate of hardware development and innovation drops precipitously, and the hardware side of the IT equation stagnates. Release cycles for hardware get very long because there's no incentive to release new hardware with incremental improvements every month/year/whatever.
The other possible outcome is that corporate America buys into this vision and increases the turnover rate for hardware. Companies will stop purchasing hardware, so we'll see corporations treating servers and desktop PCs the way some people now treat their leased cars. This isn't sustainable, though, as someone will have to take the old equipment and do something with it. Wouldn't it be a shame if all that obsolescent equipment just wound up in land fills? Oh, sure, a fair percentage of it will be resold cheaply, just like lease returns get resold in used car lots all the time. But some equipment has a very limited market (e.g., rack mount servers and workstations).
And of course, resales of previously leased hardware will be problematic if there are hardware mechanisms to tie the hardware to a specific software suite or OS.
1337! Does this "hardware becoming free" mean, that we can build cool systems with open source while spending absolutely no money? Oh no, thanks for waking me up.
Instead we get what the folks in America, Central Europe etc. have already gotten used to in mobile telephone market: You get the phone with the cell phone service included at a low initial cost, provided that you stick with the operator for, say, three years. You aren't allowed to change operators within that period. (It's good that it doesn't go this way here in Finland. Here we buy the phones for their real price and select the operator freely.)
But what does this mean for open source? How's e.g. Sun going to keep the users from just recompiling their system, getting rid of the proprietary parts, ditching the software contract and keeping the "free" hardware? Slapping them with DMCA or nasty contracts? How are they going to accomplish this without violating the GPL?
from foo import signature
What we're actually seeing now are more and more "free" alternatives to commercial software (thanks to the open source world). The only thing computer related that I've paid for in the past 5 years has been hardware.
I started out paying for Windows, Paradox, Harvard Graphics, and WordPerfect. Then Windows condensed Paradox, Harvard Graphics, and WordPerfect into Office so I just paid for Windows and Office. Then I switched to Linux altogether, but one can imagine the next progression of a Windows user is the discovery of OpenOffice, leaving Windows the only thing left to pay for. When you get to that point you come to the realization that maybe Linux *will* work for you.
So now I'm at the point where I _never_ pay for software, and I _gladly_ pay for hardware. I guess I'm way off from what Scott's thinking so one of us must be smoking crack. And I just got my last drug test back and it reported negative...
Definitely not feeling the "pay for software, give out free hardware!" trend. And the fact that Bill Gates agrees with him discredits his premise altogether.
Do it for da shorties
I consider this the "consolization" of the PC.
That's not necessarily bad. Right now, Microsoft can change things incompatibly and if they don't work, they just release a patch or tell you to upgrade to the latest version.
If there are millions of devices out there, all running different versions of the OS, it could force them to (1) be more careful with what they release and (2) pick simpler standards for their data.
>something akin to the cell phone market
Exactly. That's the model that would work best. Why should I let some other company steal my hardware and my customers? How will I get capital to even build out my devices if I can't convince my investors that I can't even protect my own product or have any kind of customer loyalty?
There's no such thing as "free" hardware, its subsidized hardware. Subsidized hardware means DRM, patents, proprietary tech, etc.
If we truly shift to an age of free stuff, it will also be an age of contracts and we all know how wonderful it is to be stuck with one carrier, their support, their devices, etc. Think Microsoft times ten. No wonder Bill is all for it.
In the end, I doubt it going to happen as predicted. MSN did their "take 300 dollars off a PC at best buy if you sign a contract with us" and a lot of people got burned paying broadband rates for dial-up and vendor lock-in. Not to mention the demographic you're going for at first doesn't have credit. On top of it, the cheap thin client or appliance PC has been a market disaster thus far.
RJ45 is ethernet (8 pins). IIRC, telephony is RJ11 (4 pins). :)
Ok, if hardware is going to be free, then when can I order a new free laptop and a new free screaming gaming system for home.
Oh, yeah. Will they be assembled by the Easter Bunny and delivered by Santa Claus??
Boy, I think Sun and M$ are smoking some pretty good stuff!
I use two computers. My Windows box, which is used by me for games, and by my family for games, MS Office, email, and the internet, could easily be converted to a subscription (and then maybe I wouldn't have to deal with as much spyware crap, or bemoaning the fact that it's barely enough to play Far Cry on).
My FC1 box, OTOH, is for tinkering. Both hardware and software. The whole point of owning it is that no one's holding my hand, fixing it, or setting it up for me. That will never be anything more than a box built with my own two hands out of parts I bought or found lying in a dumpster.
There's competition in hardware. Ergo, hardware is extremely cheap. Especially compared to, say, eight years ago.
There WAS competition in software.
Now, we have Photoshop and we have Office and we have Illustrator. And we have price hikes with each new version. Because if you're a cube farmer, you use Office. If you work in the graphics industry, you use Photoshop. Period. There is no competition, no alternative product.
There's also the fact that PS, Illustrator, and Office are available both on the Mac and on Windows. This is a factor in their success, and a way for Adobe to easily justify cost increases. Microsoft can charge whatever they want for Office- people will pay.
Illustrator has competition in the form of Freehand- which blew Illustrator away for color seperation the last time I saw it in use. But Photoshop.... photoshop has NOTHING. We can thank patents for some of that, unfortunately.
Professional video software is a whole 'nother price gouging arena- the difference being that Professional Video has actually had SOME COMPETITION in recent years with the rise of Final Cut Pro.
One's needs change. The Sun program is designed to give one bigger and bigger hardware as needed. With purchased hardware, one is stuck adding new units or discarding the old hardware. However, Sun can take back the old hardware and replace it with new hardware while only increasing the monthly subscription fee.
These subscriptions don't necessarily lock in the customer either. Now, if one wants to move to another architecture, it is no longer necessary to scrap the old hardware. Just start a new subscription with a new vendor and give back the hardware to the old vendor.
It is also worth noting that a subscription (lease) model is much better for businesses. Instead of buying hardware and depreciating it over time, they can expense the monthly lease cost (which is why auto leasing became so popular for businesses).
Microsoft, Linspire, etc. have a much steeper task, since they are targeted at consumers. Consumers are far more likely to buy hardware and use it until it drops. Sun only sells to businesses. Businesses are far more interested in scaling (i.e. if they expand, can they continue to use the same setup).
(this opst ain't ALL off-topic, I'll make a point at the end)
...
You just picked up the phone, if someone was yakking on it (no one had a dedicated phone, they were all party lines with like 6 houses on each circuit) you asked when they would be done.
I'm quite young (almost 30 years old) and the above was the case in *my* lifetime! Of course I was also born and raised in a rural area of Canada (and yes, many rural parts of the US were just as "backwards" or more so in the 70's and early 80's). We had a colour TV thoughan horrid inflation in the 70s and early 80's made everything a bit more expensive.
When I was a wee lad my early experiences with the phone were quite similar. We had a clunky rotary-dial phone (didn't need operator assistance of course). All the lines on our local exchange outside the town limits were shared by two to six people. Touch-tone phones could not be used to dial out (although you could use one as an extension once the call was conencted or to spy on the neighbours when they were talking). Not only did you not have to dial the area code for any local calls as you have to do in some cases today, you didn't even have to dial the exchange code if you were on a common exchange! You just dialled the last four digits to connect if you were both on the same exchange(if your number was 555-1234 and you wanted to call 555-4321 all you did was dial 4321--If you wanted to call 321-5555 you'd need to dial the whole thing).
RJ11 or those wonky 4-prong connectors existed, but it was still common for the phone to be HARD-WIRED to the wall! You still couldn't buy your own phone or even add an extension in your own house without the government telephone company's involvement and extra charges. That was the case for everyone, not just in the country either. You couldn't even get your own line, much less a second one or even a second number no matter that you were willing to pay.
That all started to change in about 1985. Rural residents finally got touch-tone dialling and a dedicated (non-party) line (although each residence had to pay a few hundred dollars to get the line). We also were given ownership of the lines within our homes (at no cost) so we could do our own wiring and add extensions at no cost. We were no longer forced to rent phones and were allowed to purchase our own. And we were officially allowed to use answering machines and computer modems (finally--they were not allowed on party lines although they would technically function to some degree)!
As time went on, the government telephone company was privatised and we could buy long distance from competitors. There have been downsides (local company customer service stinks even worse than it used to) but overall the upsides are much greater (waaaay cheaper long distance, no party line, more flexible options, more features like call waiting and so on). In less than 20 years the difference is extremely dramatic!
This all looks like the reverse of the Sun/Microsoft vision actually. Some compare it to cellphones but I think of it more as the way government owned telephone system worked pre-1985 where I live--which is even worse. The parallels are there:
* Computers will be "free" (but neither in the "gratis" OR "libre" sense--it'll be no money up front but the "rental fee" will be mandatory or built into your monthly bill for service). Just like when you couldn't actually OWN your phone. At least you have SOME choices with cellphones.
* Technicians will come to your home and set everything up for you. Really convenient, but when you try to set up a second computer on your own (if you could even obtain one on your own) or alter your existing PC you'd be breaking your service contract, not only causing you to be fined but maybe you'd lose internet access or even the entire PC! (kinda like if you tried to add an extension or use an answering machine and got into trouble). Can you imagine... "we have evidence that you've connected an unaut
I have been a bit amazed at Sun's collusion with MS is the recent past for a while now, and then I read this article. What on earth do Sun and MS have in common, I wondered. Then it came to me: OSS/linux is what they have in common, or rather the fear of Linux and OSS eating up their business as it really seems to be doing.
.Net (anyone remember passport).
.Net frameworks which enable them to download applications based on XAML and Aeron and more importantly control the use of those applications through the DRM
So why would Sun be daft enough to first make its own Linux distro and then jump on the party wagon with MS, I thought. I suppose the reason to that is that Sun has been so all over the fucking place in recent years (ever since they came up with the Java computer IIRC) coming up with one ridiculous idea after another to save the company and bleeding money all over the place that they simply are too damn stupid to realise what they are doing. MS comes along with a proposal that MS claims would save Sun's Solaris and hardware from extinction and Sun, grasping for straws, goes for it wholeheartedly, not realising that playing with MS is like playing with a live Cobra: You get bitten and you die.
It's sad that Sun has been just too plain fucking stupid to port the interesting parts of Solaris to Linux and go with Linux on their hardware and stick to servers.
So what is MS' goal anyway? I think that actually, as is typical of MS, the whole software subscription thing, which backfired badly the first time they came up with it about 5 years ago (Internet Cafe's subscribing to Office etc, ha ha ha) was just put on the back burner until they could come up with another way to market it.
And they did. And it ties in nicely with both DRM and
I think the idea is the following. MS has an idea that they can sell an advanced XBox kind of computer (such as the next XBox version, surprise!) which will be:
1. Locked with both a software DRM and a hardware BIOS DRM. (see the new Phoenix BIOS)
2. Run the Windows OS (this time without paint or notepad) but only the very basics of the OS.
3. Run the
4. Offer the box with a basic set of games, office apps for the home, a browser, an email client, media player, IMS etc.
5. Also offer the Box with nothing, but offer the above mentionend apps on a subscrition basis as well as those that third party developers will pay through the nose to be allowed to distribute them through MS' channels. Very much like games are now.
6. Start a massive and even for MS standards expensive media campaign that this will be the true home appliance. Just Buy, Plug and Play!(TM).
7. Profit, laugh at Sun who thought that they could get something out of this (Maybe Sun will be allowed to host XBoxII third party software etc)
You laugh? XBOX II won't even run on x86, so tough luck trying to get your current apps to work. The masses will go for this even if it's only over time. They currently pay for MS's online gaming service so why won't they pay for MS's online Office service?
does this mean I can get a free pc at microsofts expence, then not pay the software fee and install linux :D
If both Sun and Microsoft say that hardware will be free. Isn't this more reason to give away software and resort to a new form of communism as an economy, using our technology to automate all the work people don't like doing? Rather than force people to find jobs when this capitalist economy of ours no longer has enough of them available for everyone?
No?
Then please explain how hardware could ever be free when it will always cost money for the resources, time and energy to build it!
Lets be realistic. My reasons for wanting a communist society are not based in economics, but instead come purely from my belief in psychology. That people behave how their environment tells them how to behave. And that environment could include things like a replacement for commercials that, instead of trying to manipulate people into purchasing things they otherwise would not, would encourage people to be interested in sciences, arts and other productive things that they otherwise would not. And if you could always find a job doing exactly what you would choose to do, anyday you want to work, or do several jobs throughout the year, such as walking around picking up trash, for your own health and mental well-being, wouldn't that be a much more pleasant form of society for all of us to live in? Why can't work be play? It only takes a little more creativity and effort to make things difficult and tedious tasks we do enjoyable. Remove stress from the workplace and take care of eachother, or deal with the daily stress of capitalism for the rest of your life. It is your choice afterall, not mine.
what happens when you are broken down on a long stretch of highway, but your phone battery is drained because someone was using your phone to get better reception earlier in the day?
Douglas P. Price
looking at that article, it sounds like bill gates has his hand controlling SUN's COO
Sun sold their souls, get used to it.
The whole "sell software, cheaply made, easily lost ssoftware that the consumer has to pay for if any damages occur to it" approach has always been Microsoft's. it should be the other way around since hardware often costs more, and takes a lot of cash to produce, software can cost money to produce as well, but the fact that hardware is something you have physically garaunteed to work, because it's there and you can see it for the most part, meanwhil,e with software, it can often appear to be working, but it could have really bad holes in it and do a lot of things the consumer may not se or want. issues with hardware can be physically resolves easily, however, with closed proprietary software, something happens because of a bug, or because of a feature a user doesnt want, they cant replace it, they have to sit and wait until whenever the vendor of the software feels like making the change.
at least with hardware, if you have a buggy sound card, or one that doesnt sound good, you can take it back and get a working one or one that's better.
if the software's buggy, all copies of it will be as well. and there's nothing you can do about it.
... cuz I already went and posted instead of using my mod points :)
I remember all that of which thou and the parent posters speaketh (being a ripe old 49 myself) and I think you've got it nailed dead on -- it's an attempt to return to the era when profit levels were *ensured* by the fact that EVERYTHING was company owned, and rented to the client at whatever rate could be extorted-- er, I mean at whatever the market would bear before too many people made do without.
And that's a damned good analogy, comparing all the things you were not allowed to do with an old-time phone line (I remember when you never admitted to using a modem, lest you get dinged an extra "connection fee") with what restrictive use could well result from "free PC, rented software".
~REZ~ #43301. Who'd fake being me anyway?
Well, this is the way I think of it. MS makes one OS for a huge range of performances. XP runs on my celeron laptop, XP runs on my 3200+. How is Microsoft going to differentiate those who need their software-hardware bundle for games and those who want to pay less and use it for word processing? I don't think they can really make different tiers of their OS, because that would probably make things more expensive anyway.
There will always be those who need more power than others, and people yearn for economy of scale! "I don't want to pay $1200 dollars for windows when I can buy a really good $200 typewriter!"
Vernbatim from Bill gates mouth.
What Microsoft is planning to do is to tell the hardware vendors "We're going to phase out our software for PC's. So if you don't want to lose your business when out monopoly does this you had better sell this "appliance" software that will only run our services." And we all know that Microsoft is more than willing to use its monopoly position to force hardware vendors to go along or get run out of business.
At that point, hardware vendors will be under a tremendous pressure to go along with Microsoft. After all over 95% of all computers on the planet run a Microsoft OS. As people get suckered in to this the cost of regular PCs will rise and eventually become prohibitively expensive. No hardware vendor is going to want to be the one holding a large inventory of computers that no one will buy. (Just a few of us geeks.)
What we need to do (and do it NOW) is to start a campaign that tells people the truth. That the hardware isn't free, the cost is just hidden in the services that they will be forced to pay. Once all competition has died Microsoft will have them by the short hairs and they can expect to be financially raped. The only reason that they want to tell people that the hardware is free is so if the person stops paying the subscription fees Microsoft or one of its flunkies can take the hardware back. (Leaving no platform for its open source competition.) 'Hey, you didn't pay for it. You only paid for the subscription to our non-open source software.'
Unless we can keep Microsoft from breaking the law and forcing hardware vendors to comply or die this will get serious. Remember, Microsoft doesn't care if it breaks the law as long as it gets a big enough return. We need laws that will put these bastards in prison for very long times.
The race isn't always to the swift... but that's the way to bet!
corn, wheat, and other honest stuff do not follow moore's law. cpus get faster because they shrink the size of the interconnects. this means more cpus per wafer. at some point the capabilities of a common computer will exceed that of the end user. at this point the chip can be simplified and more computation can be moved back to software. making it even cheaper and smaller. and this is silicon based tech.... i suppose schwartz should have spelled out asymptopically zero for the score 5 insightful idiots...
Hardware has a marginal cost to make that is far from zero, and software doesn't. Thus even if hardware becomes commoditized, which it pretty much is in the PC world, It still isn't ever free (not for real). Software, OTOH, essentially has a marginal cost of zero. Thus it makes more sense for a company to sell hardware and give away software that adds value to the product than to do it the other way around. They want to spread the fixed software costs over a lot of hardware units. Thus one makes (or utilizes open source) software to make their hardware more valuable to the end user.
----- Question authority, but not ours. Hate the man, but we're not him.
The primary reason for the existence of leasing is that it makes it easier for businesses to expense their costs. When a business buys an automobile or computer hardware, it cannot expense the cost. Instead, it has to depreciate the price over time. This causes more paperwork and creates issues if the depreciation period is not the same as the period over which they want to use the product. By contrast, if they lease, they can expense the entire monthly lease amount.
I would also point out that leases are more flexible than buying the hardware outright. If one buys, then one is locked in for the lifetime of the product. With a lease, one can switch as soon as the lease term is up. Further, one can usually expand the hardware mid-lease if necessary (this is what Sun does at least).
Overall, subscription models are good news for free (like speech) software. By mixing hardware, software, and maintenance costs into one number, it makes it easier for free software to compete. Now, customers can compare total cost numbers and services rather than try to guess at the various costs. It also helps in that *nix variants (including GNU/Linux and Solaris) tend to handle limited resources better, so their hardware costs can be lower as well.
An essentially identical scheme has already been successful for several years now, with eMachines and other cheap OEM hardware, where the computer is "free", but you're required to sign up for three years with AOL, MSN, or whoever, at a monthly rate a bit over their normal subscription fee.
It works out to around $900 to buy a machine worth about $300 at wholesale, or $600 at retail. But average folks, especially people with a "poor" mentality, don't see that. All they see is that $25 per month for some indeterminate period sounds a whole lot "cheaper" than $600 up front.
~REZ~ #43301. Who'd fake being me anyway?
In the US AT&T was raked across the coals as a monopoly in the late 70's. Local service was split from long distance, and the exclusive lock Bell had on what customers could install was thrown out as unlawful. As a result people could suddenly purchase phones for a fraction of what it would cost to rent and that business model dried up quickly.
"Learning is not compulsory... neither is survival."
--Dr.W.Edwards Deming
As I sit here and think about it, hasn't opensource/GPL already proved that it can be done with software. But I cant think of one piece of hardware I didn't have to buy. A community can't support hardware free so I dont see how that will work unless it is like the earily posters said. Old Ma Bell way.
Mike
I didn't use the preview button, so get over it!!!!
Mike
Hardware is a limited resource. Software is infinitely reproducible.
yeah hardware will be free and java will make a comeback and Sun's stock will skyrocket. Go ahead and revitalize my corpse from its cryogenic state when that happens (don't worry, I'm sure Sun will have figured out how to make this possible too.)
ôó
By their thinking TV's should be free but they are not. Why can't I just signup for that Cable Infomercial channel and get my TV for free. Because no one would do it. The content would be crap and I would not have the option to go to different vendor easily. When they say free they mean you signup for a 2 year subscription like the cell phone companies offer and pay for the software. But you are actually paying for both regardless. The software makers want you to think that software is the only thing of value.
The more we allow the corporation to control and sell information is the more we allow ourselves to be controlled and enslaved. I will resist and fight any attempt to control information in this way. I really like the science model of Aristotle where he believed that evolution of thought required freedom of information. I think the comparison of what we saw on US TV (and sadly Canadian as well) vs. what is in Fahrenheit 911 with respect to the treatment of Iraq people is a good example of how our media is controlled already! To control an operating system to the degree that they want to worries me. I think it is like controlling your digital sole.. It's a scary world, and the worst thing is no one sees it!
I ran for the border.. and I'm not looking back!!!
During the dawn of the "nuclear age" proponents of nuclear energy said it would be "too cheap to meter".
I don't know about you guys, but Public Service Electric and Gas just sent me a bill for $250.00.
Don't hold your breath for free hardware.
-ted
"As part of its services offerings announced on Monday, Santa Clara, California-based Sun rolled out a pay-for-use storage service, with prices starting at 2 cents per megabyte per month. The service includes installation services, Sun support and software licenses, Sun said. "t ech nologyNews&storyID=5304507
http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=
$0.02 per MB per month
or
$0.24 per MB per year
or
$1 per 4 MB per year
or
$10000 per 40000 MB per year
or
$10000 per 40 GB per year
Yeah right!
Just buy a 1000$ computer for the next 4 years.
Umm, what maintenance and upkeep? Its just non-moving stands of copper. I've never had a phone line go bad on me. And when you want to change the wiring around (add a new wall socket or whatever) it's pretty easy to just do it yourself.
Dell, HP, and Apple are going to fall even harder behind open source in response, if this isn't just Gates and McNealy blowing steam.
Running power PC, office for ppc,and Virtual PC for legacy software. The Office box will probably be size of shrink rapped MS office box That why MS keeps the PPC version of offie upto date.
This mindset is crazy. You wind up subscribing for services equivalent to what you have on your PC now and you'll be paying $100's every month. It won't be long before you've exceeded what you're normally pay for a program. With this e-service mindset, they don't really get it. If everything is subscription based, the grand total everyone's going to pay is going to be huge. I'm sure the customer service and technical support is going to be significantly improved too.
The only way in which hardware will ever be free is if the 'hardware' vendor's core business isn't hardware.
He must make his money elsewhere and preferably by selling things with the hardware he gives away.
Now this presents a problem. If his hardware is a commodity, then chances are open-source software will exist for it which will reduce his value proposition.
His alternative is to make the hardware proprietory. Proprietory hardware must have some clear advantages over the other options or they just won't sell.
All in all, a bad idea unless you are Microsoft.
When competition forced the bell company out of a monopoly, and it had to reduce costs. The ILEC had to reduce the cost components of your phone line to compete with the CLECs, that meant including the rent of the phone, and free phone wiring repairs(because, at one point, they were trying to argue the phone wiring in your walls, belonged to them, so they had to fix it, but they also could monitor and limit just how much use you could get out of your equipment, for a consumer market, this ended up costing them less, until competition emerged) became prohibitively expensive. The "services included with your subscription" went down because consumers didn't want to pay extra to get them, and with the monopoly, they paid extra for it, but didn't know about it. The new model is a bit more self-sustainable, in that you own the phone equipment and there is a clear demarc between your responsability and the phone company's. That means your house is now "carrier-neutral" to use the term in the web hosting colocation industry, which is good for you, in the long term.
If hardware was free, I would never want it. It would mean that computers would have evolved into the ultimate form of big-brotherness. They would have become the ultimate platform for large companies and the government to make lots of money on content and at the same time controlling your creative and technical freedom on the computer. Bill and Sun's idea here is to turn the PC into the ultimate 'entertainment' machine where the user can pay for everything, but not for something that they really need. It's the sickest form of materialistic control - We all know Bill has been trying to push shitty software and content down our throats for years. I see this as his ultimate last step at controlling mankind through a terminal devices. Slave on!
Sun makes hardware, if they wish to give away the hardware, and make the money on software, this seems doable for them. Smart? I dont know. Just something they *could* do, if they wanted.
Microsoft does not build PC hardware, AFAIK. I dont know, but I cant see Dell, HP, et al deciding that they are making too much, they need to give away the hardware. ( I can see them saying "I can put Linux on here and pay no licensing..." ( I can also see them saying "clunky MS software motivates more upselling to faster CPU's, we like this" ) ).
Also, isnt this a return to something like the "bad old days" of IBM hardware / software bundling, only, maybe backwards? Why would we want this? Hasnt this kinda been rejected by the marketplace?
emt 377 emt 4
No, that's not correct. The world of modular plugs and privately owned telephones predated the anti-trust decision.
Maybe I'd use my driver's phone then :-)
I used to have a better sig than this, but I got tired of it
Past performance is no guarantee of future returns, as the financial types are made to say. And I think we've been on the "knee of the accelerating curve" for most of my lifetime, so I'm skeptical.
What I'm trying to say is, there are always limits to progress. The sample size of a few years isn't enough to make a determination of where we're going. Also, since you can't really tell me what both axis are for your exponential curve, it's meaningless. Technological improvements a discrete events.
Pick a better model for progress, in other words.
An RJ-11 is technically a phone service delivered over the middle pins of a 6P modular connector. An R11/RJ25 is two phone lines delivered of the 4 inner pins of a 6P modular connector.
...open souce commmunity provide free software,
and these guys provide free hardware.
it will be fun!
Free software than hardware once you have the hardware its yours whereas you will have to pay a subscription for the software. I can see why Sun and MS like the idea because every month or year they get another lump of money in return for nothing and after handing over all that money the user will end up with..... nothing and it's for this reson that most consumers will avoid it. I can see some companies using as a short term solution, but is just renting and there's another name for longterrm renting that's money pit. I will never use subscription software.
Saying Apple is better than MS is like saying Botulism is better than rabies.
Battery? By then my phone will run on a fuel cell. Like my car.
...as hardware is the only thing I pay for!
Saying that hardware should be free is the most stupid thing Sun could possibly do. Seriously, I cannot imagine anything stupider, nor can I imagine any other company in which case it would sound any stupider.
There is an important difference between Sun and Microsoft, though. Understanding the needs of modern consumers notwithstanding, it would be the best thing for Microsoft profits since sliced bread if hardware was free of charge, paid by license fees for proprietary software, while at the same time, it would be absolutely the worst thing for Sun, which unlike Microsoft is a hardware company, and a damn good at that, even if somewhat expensive. Furthermore, Sun does not make commodity hardware and no one makes good clones of Sun hardware.
What Sun should do is push their hardware with free software and make damn sure it is the best hardware running said software. Sun could do it. They should send patches to kernel.org and gcc.gnu.org to make absolutely sure that GNU/Linux out of the box is running on their hardware faster and better than anywhere else. They should start selling cheaper boxes using their older technology but of very high quality in more quantities for people to run free software who would otherwise use standard PCs.
Switching hardware from PC to Sun when you use Microsoft Windows is impossible. Switching hardware from PC to Sun when you run Debian is unnoticeable from the user standpoint.
Saying that hardware should be free is a suicide for Sun. The only software they ever made which sells today is OpenOffice.org which is sold by community distributors. Sun just showed us that they are a bunch stupid morons. They seem to not understand that being friends with Microsoft will inevitably kill them and sadly render irrelevant. I give them five years. Mark my words.
Sincerely,
Pan Tarhei Hosé, PhD.
"Homo sum et cogito ergo odi profanum vulgus et libido."
I think this is analogous to those cell deals where you get a free phone when you sign up for service, especially if they're going for the subscription-based model.
Phil Hartman: You are correct sir!
This sig was generated by a barrel of trained kittens for SeXy_Red (550409).
That's the first time i have heard of it still being here i remember my parents talking about leasing phones in the 50's but also of them talking about how everyone swapped because it was cheaper.
Saying Apple is better than MS is like saying Botulism is better than rabies.
If you don't fix it I won't pay next month.
If you don't pay next month, I'll send a collection agency after you and screw up your credit rating.
Why would we want [hardware bundled with the software]? Hasnt this kinda been rejected by the marketplace?
We don't need a marketplace to reject it. We only need strong lobbyists from the major proprietary enterprise software publishers and apathetic voters, and it will become unlawful to manufacture or sell new general purpose PCs. Remember the CBDTPA?
SCAMMER: "Congrautlations! You've won 5 free magazine subscriptions!
ME: "You mean I get the subscriptions for nothing?"
SCAMMER: "That's right! Totally free, with just a small handling fee of $4.99 per week".
ME: "So, I won 5 free subscriptions valued at up to $19 each, or $100 and all I have to do is pay a mere $260/year for 'handline fees'?"
SCAMMER: "Um... well... See... <click>"
You may find the first two pages of results from this simple Google query informative.
Gird your loins and your wallets, techno-chipmunks, because they're after your nuts again....
In Spain, where I saw the change, the model changed slowly:
- First we started to buy ultracheap, feature rich phones, while dropping rental of secondary phones.
- Once it became apparent for everybody that the rental principle was a scam, the government made rental optional (it was a regulated market)
The basic requirement is that there is a strong standards and interop requisites for whatever you speak about. For instance, web servers using DAV + HTTP could be easily make into such substitutable appliances. In the phone world, CCITT and the telcos made it sure that every phone made in the whole world was basically interoperable.